Hector Santiago, Dylan Axelrod -- Your two widely available starters that have the good fortune to square off against the Marlins this coming weekend. The Marlins are still hitting just .220/.282/.317 as a team, and while that's an unfortunate reality for Miami fans, it's something to exploit in fantasy. I wouldn't fret much over my pitcher facing Dustin Ackley, and the Marlins basically equal out to a lineup full of nine Ackley clones. Sounds good to me.

Jonathan Pettibone -- At some point, the Nationals are going to start hitting. There's too much firepower in that lineup to be this offensively deficient. But for now, they're hitting .214/.281/.333 over the past week. Pettibone has been solid enough thus far that he can be trusted against a struggling lineup, even if his success has been partly smoke and mirrors. Plus, he's facing Dan Haren on Saturday, whose persistent struggles should mean Pettibone will get plenty of run support.

Wily Peralta, John Gast -- Both will face off against the Dodgers in the next four days. As a collective unit, the Dodgers are hitting .222/.274/.306 in the past week. They erupted for a whopping three runs last night -- a feat they've managed to top just four times this month. Hanley Ramirez is on the shelf, and they're going to trot out some combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon and Justin Sellers as the left side of their infield, in all likelihood. Sign me up.

Chris Young -- Young's game has been just a hair of above Buterian (which Webster defines as "having qualities similar to that of Drew Butera") this year, but CBY still sports a healthy .267/.369/.483 triple slash line against left-handed pitching, and he'll face a pair of southpaws in his weekend series with the Astros. No one knows how to give up runs in bunches like the Astros. Erik Bedard and Dallas Keuchel beware.

Julio Teheran -- I assume Teheran's recent play has his ownership soaring through the roof (as it should), but he's still out there in 70 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 80 percent of ESPN Leagues. If his one-run, 8 1/3 inning performance wasn't impressive enough for you Monday, consider that he's facing the Mets and Shaun Marcum next Sunday. The Mets are batting .217/.274/.350 over the past week and .223/.281/.350 over the past two weeks. Teheran, meanwhile, has a 2.41 ERA with two walks in 33 2/3 innings over his past five starts, and the Braves should be good to put up somewhere between four and 38 runs against Marcum.

Andy Dirks -- The Twins have dropped six straight games largely due to their starting pitching, and Dirks will be seeing plenty of it with a four-game series coming up. He'll face a lefty in Scott Diamond one day, so bench him for that. The other three games, however, will be started by Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and one of Samuel Deduno, P.J. Walters or Kyle Gibson. Fantasy owners should root for Walters or Deduno if they enlist Dirks for a weekend of service. He's hitting .293/.339/.517 since May 3 and is notably better against righties than lefties.

Bonus recommendation: If you play on Yahoo where Jhonny Peralta is inexplicably available in 40 percent of leagues, it'd be wise to grab him for the series as well. He's owned in 97 percent of ESPN Leagues, which makes boatloads more sense than Yahoo's 59.1.

David DeJesus -- DeJesus keeps on raking, and he's facing a nice run of right-handed pitching as the weekend draws close, starting with the very hittable Jeanmar Gomez. DeJesus will also get Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto in the hitter-friendly Cincinnati. Whils Bailey's been terrific, Arroyo is always inches from a meltdown, and Cueto certainly didn't look like himself in his return from the DL last night.

We've now reached a point in the season at which many statistics have begun to stabilize. At the individual player level, we'll still witness wide fluctuations in statistical performances. Leaguewide data, however, is now a good indicator of what you can expect going forward.

With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at the current standings in the RotoAuthority League and see how they compare to past standings in the league. In this way, we might be able to see which statistics have begun more scarce and thus more valuable. With the season 26% complete through Saturday's games, all counting stats were extrapolated to end-of-season totals. Meanwhile, ratio statistics were kept the same. I used median finishes in each category, because mean values tended to be slighltly skewed, as some owners have punted categories in the past.

Accordingly, the file at the bottom links to the median totals in each category across the league for each of the past five years and then for this season's projected statistics.

So what are some interesting trends?

• There has already been plenty of discussion on this topic, but for whatever reason stolen bases are way down this season. How does this affect the game we play? Well, one-trick ponies like Juan Pierre become more valuable. The fact that Everth Cabrera ranks third among shortstops on the ESPN Player Rater makes a tad more sense now. In short, buy your speed now before others in your league fully appreciate those speedsters.
• Batting average continues to decline. Five years ago a .260 AVG provided negative value in the category. We've now reached a point that a .260 AVG actually helps a fantasy owner. There are a few ramifications of this new reality. For one, fantasy owners who took chances on perennially AVG killers J.P. Arencibia and Mark Reynolds are reaping the rewards. With this new baseline AVG around .255, players like this duo may still hurt you in the category but not nearly as much. On the flip side, this also pushes elite AVG performers like Joey Votto even higher up in the first round.  
• Pitching is still dominant across the league. I've always been one to wait on pitching, but that philosophy seems to be for dinosaurs at this point. In ERA and WHIP the categorical targets continue to decline on an annual basis. There's a strong argument to be made for taking Clayton Kershaw at least in the top ten, if not in the top five. If you have to put up an ERA near 3.00 to finish near the top of the category, 230 innings of an ERA around 2.50 puts you a step ahead the rest of the league. Disaster outings by starting pitchers have become even more of a killer in today's Roto game.  

Download Past RotoAuthority League Standings 

The first trio of trade-worthy players hit like gangbusters out of the gate: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, and Todd Frazier. This group hasn't done a whole lot since. If you'd tried to trade for one of these guys after the first week of the season, their owners would have wanted a huge pile of return. Now, though, after sitting through a few weeks of regression to the mean (and still having decent power numbers), all three hitters are showing downward trends and frustrating owners who had their expectations raised in early April. With some hitters, it would be time to give up, but this group has displayed serious hitting skill in the past and all stand a good chance of regressing upward in the coming weeks. Frazier is certainly the riskiest play of the bunch, but he should also come at the lowest cost.

Two more third basemen worth trading for have essentially opposite stories despite similar power numbers: Will Middlebrooks has been awful, aside from the power, and the victim of a .240 BABIP (which can only partially explain his .205 average); Josh Donaldson has been a beast, with a .323 average (thanks in part to a .361 BABIP). While Donaldson is likely to see his average go down and Middlebrooks see his go up, I still think it's a decent time to trade for both. Middlebrooks owners must be disappointed with his performance while Dondaldson's owners are probably pretty surprised. The A's 3B was pretty unheralded coming into the season, and he's a bit old to have been a prospect. That said, his minor league numbers show power at every stop and he's a great candidate to continue to be productive going forward. If his current owner thinks he's a fluke, grab him.

If 3B, 1B, and C eligible players aren't what you're looking for, how about 2B/SS Josh Rutledge? He's shown a useful combination of five homers and five steals, but his batting average has been pretty lousy. His BABIP is .267, which isn't incredibly low...but it is low for someone who gets to play half his games at Coors Field. With summer weather coming to the mountains, it seems reasonable to expect his BABIP to go up, especially at home, and boost his other numbers along with it.

I will now plug one pitcher I always do, and two I never have. It'll be weird.

I'm always telling everyone how wonderful Marco Estrada is (seriously, the guy should send me a thank-you card or something), and his bloated 5.32 ERA isn't deterring me any. Why? Because his xFIP is a healthy 3.93 and his K/BB is 3.38. Of course, that neatly overlooks his hideous HR/9 rate of 2.17, a full HR worse than what he did last year. It seems that his situation is a dichotomy: either he's all washed up, and will continue allowing homers at this pace until his release, or he will cut down on that homer rate and go back to being a good pitcher who allows a few too many homers, Bert Blyleven style. (Okay, he might not be headed for the Hall of Fame, but still.)

Josh Beckett once authored one of the most memorable pitching performances I've ever seen, shutting out the Yankees in Game 6 of the World Series. Ten years ago. He's a different pitcher now, and after watching him scuffle and inflate ERA and WHIP numbers for entire fantasy teams for the last couple years, let's just say the magic seems to have worn off. Currently, he's treating owners to an 0-5 record and a 5.19 ERA. Like Estrada, he's got a much nicer looking xFIP (3.88) and an unsightly HR/9 (1.66). He's also sporting a .323 BABIP against. One key point in which he's improved from last year, though, is his K/9--now at 8.52, the highest it's been at since 2008. Like Estrada, he won't improve if he can't cut down on the homers; like Estrada, he'll be very useful if he does.

Anyone who looks casually at Ervin Santana's 2.79 ERA is going to cry "fluke!" I can't blame them: Santana has been one of the most frustratingly inconsistent pitchers in baseball for the last several years. The one thing he's done reliably is walk about three batters per nine innings. In 2013, he's cut that rate by two-thirds, and his K/BB is among the league leaders at 6.50. Only one other time has Santana had a quality K/BB--2008, when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and posted a 6.0 WAR. There's a good chance his owners feel lucky to have him, and would happily flip him for a useful "reliable" player. Do it, and reap the benefits of a potentially dominant season.

Trade Away

Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells have been two of the most surprisingly productive fantasy players this year, helping the Yankees thrive amid Curtis Granderson's absence. All that is coming to an end, though, as Granderson is back and Hafner and Wells will be sharing time at DH. Deal either away if you still can.

It's always hardest to trade away a hitter proving to be a great bargain. Starling Marte and Carlos Beltran are both knocking the cover off the ball and probably producing better than the first outfielder you drafted. Beltran's got 10 HR's and a .299 batting average that's for real (.306 BABIP), but his fade in last year's second half worries me. With most players, I'd say something about sample size and luck...but Beltran is 36 with a long injury history and I wouldn't be surprised if time took its toll on him last year. 

Marte is a different story, as his power and speed are legitimate, but his .314 average is the product of a .390 BABIP. Even when his average returns to earth (last year it was just .257 with a .333 BABIP) he's going to be a highly useful outfielder, but he's not going to keep producing like he is at the moment. Fangraphs gave the other side of this arugment last week, and if you can get him on your team for a low price, do it. If you can get him off your team for a high price, do that.

Both Beltran and Marte should not be traded except for decently large returns, becuase neither should be expected to see their production crater going forward--just to drop a bit.

Chris Sale is this week's sell high in pitching, as he's thrown 23 consecutive scoreless innings, dominated four starts in a row (including a one-hitter last Sunday), and pitched seven innings or more in six in a row. He's not so much someone to deal before his production goes down, as someone whose current trade value is probably higher than his projected season value, making him a good trade candidate if you need to move pitching for hitting.

Pick Up

Remember Kyle Blanks? Some time ago, he was supposed to be the next (good version of) Adam Dunn. Injuries got in the way, but he's back to playing time with San Diego and still only 26. If you're in the market for a longshot with power upside, Blanks might be your man.

Colby Lewis reportedly has just three more rehab starts to make, which means he could be back in the Show in as little as two weeks. I suggest grabbing him before your competition can get their hands on him, even if that means carrying him on your DL for a while, becuase he was dominant before last year's injury. Even if he isn't dominant this year, pitching for Texas will probably make him useful in wins.

Guess who leads the Majors in K/BB. If you said Cliff Lee (like I did, before I looked it up), you were wrong. It's Bartolo Colon. Seriously, that Bartolo Colon. He's got a K/BB of 13.50! So yes, you can believe in his 1.10 WHIP. If you need help in that category, snap up Colon, despite his mediocre ERA and low K/9.

Last but not least, Ubaldo Jimenez is finally pitching like the guy the Indians traded for. He was so bad to start the season that his ERA is still 5.31, but he's now got 44 K's in 40.2 IP, and has struck ou at least eight batters in each of his last three starts. I don't know if it will continue, but he's well worth gambling on at this point.

With no job losses to present our favorite kind of opportunities, we can safely ignore relievers and the waiver wire for another week, right? 

Sure you can. But I won't, and neither will your leaguemates. Just because no changes have happened yet doesn't mean there couldn't be trouble brewing. With that said, let's start things off with the...

Brewers

Actually, there isn't really any "trouble" coming down the pike for Milwaukee closer Jim Henderson. There's some bad news for the few John Axford owners still out there, because the Brew Crew just added all-time single-season saves leader Francisco Rodriguez to their beleaguered bullpen. Considering how well Henderson has pitched (10.50 K/9, 5.00 K/B, 1.06 ERA, 1.37 FIP, 95mph fastball), I don't see K-Rod's rusty right arm pushing him out of the ninth any time soon. But considering how unbelievably bad Axford's been (I won't show you the numbers, in deference to his owners), Frankie Rodriguez will likely climb into the top setup slot and become the first backup in line soon. I wouldn't add Rodriguez at this point, but I would drop Ax-man.

Angels

Ryan Madson and I had thought this might be a good time to scoop him up, in case the Angels got overexuberant and handed him the closer's job they signed him for. Well, the latest word is that his rehab stint may last "several weeks." One can understand the Angels playing this one cautiously, but I wouldn't be surprised if they activated Madson earlier than that--if he's healthy and dominant in rehab. Keep an eye on what Madson does in AAA, becuase incumbent closer Ernesto Frieri has had a lot of success but will need to cut down on his 6.23 BB/9 before it catches up with him. (To be fair, that number is cut down from where it was a couple weeks ago when I suggested watching his backups.)

Diamondbacks

Remember when Heath Bell was one of the top closers drafted? Me neither. Arizona GM Kevin Towers did, though, and looked like a fool when he traded to get Bell in the offseason. Maybe we should have trusted Towers' history with relievers, because it's a pretty long track record of success. Thus far, Bell has been outstanding and his fastball velocity and frequency appear to have returned to the levels of the good ol' days in San Diego. Does that mean David Hernandez isn't looming? No. But it does mean that he managed to blow a save Sunday and had enough leash to come back for two in a row Tuesday and Wednesday. If you've got Hernandez, I hope you're counting holds, because Bell has a solid grip on the saves in the desert.

Dodgers

Brandon League is a good-but-not-great pitcher, and he's been pretty shaky so far this season. Kenley Jansen is a dominant strikeout pitcher and he's dominated this season. So why is League still the closer? There are two reasons, one more important than the other. First of all, someone decided that lots of money = infinite money and threw 30 some-odd million dollars at League to close. That's big money for a setup guy and there's some face to be lost by demoting him. That's the lesser reason, I think. The real reason, and the reason they gave all that money to Mr. League in the first place, is the reason they initially traded for him: Jansen's health.

I'm doing a little bit of speculating here, as I am neither a medical doctor nor an employee of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but I think they're giving League as much leash as his performance will allow (maybe more) so that they can keep Jansen as fresh as possible for when they really need him. Earlier this week, Jansen came in to get a big one-out save, but League was back Wednesday to preserve a two-run lead in the ninth. When did Jansen pitch? In the seventh and eighth with a one-run lead--when sabermetricians tell us the Dodgers really needed him.

Hang on to League as long as he's just good enough to justify running out there in the ninth, because I think the Dodgers are trying to maximize their bullpen value by having Jansen available for all (and only) the highest-leverage innings. If that's what they're up to, more teams should do the same.

Red Sox

Junichi Tazawa hasn't pitched since losing the game last Saturday, but, then, the Red Sox haven't brought him any save opportunities since. While the Boston decision makers have seemed confident enough in Tazawa, it looks like Bailey will be coming back no later than Monday, if all goes according to plan. Of course, things may not go according to plan, so don't drop Tazawa just yet. However, if a short-sighted owner happened to drop Bailey, go to your waiver wire and claim him, because he's pitched too good not to return to the ninth inning when he's ready. Plus, the Red Sox probably want to show off whatever stability they can.

Add-Vice

Unfortunately, this isn't a big week to find closing bargains. Bailey (and Tazawa, actually) make the best adds, on the off chance they aren't owned yet in your league. Speaking of League, if frustrated owners have dropped him, I'd pick him up, as there's a good chance he gets to snag the easier save chances in L.A. Finally, "several weeks" is a long time for a rehab assignment, but if you've got space on your DL it might be a good idea to lock up Madson. The Angels did sign him with the intent of using him to close, and they may still go that route when he comes back to the Bigs. Of course, they may not, so if you play the wait-and-see game and lose, don't beat yourself up.

And by the way, don't forget to check out @CloserNews on Twitter for up-to-the-minute information, and our up-to-date Closer Depth Chart, for each team's stopper and top backups.

Buy These High-deas

Jean Segura

Segura has probably hit two more homers and stolen another base since I started writing this sentence. Dude is ON FIRE, and Segura owners must be wondering how long his power is going to last (7 HRs in 154 PAs). While ESPN has shown that 5 of his 7 bombs has been “just enoughs,” the fact that 6 of them have been to the opposite field is promising. But here’s why I think you should buy high on Segura, especially in roto leagues - even if his power dissipates, he’s on pace to steal over 50 bags. He has the most stolen bases in the majors... and he didn’t steal his first base until his 11th game! He could easily swipe 70 bags this year if he stays healthy, and batting in front of some combination of Braun/Gomez/Ramirez will always mean lots of runs.

Manny Machado

I wish there was fantasy baseball for defense, because Machado looks like the best defensive third baseman in the league. But with a .329/.367/.515 batting line and 5 bombs and 5 stolen bases, Machado looks like the superstar he was hyped up to be in the minors. Overshadowed by the Harper/Trout phenomenon of last year, Machado has looked comfortable at the plate ever since he was promoted, and rarely looks off-balance or swings at a bad pitch. While is average will most likely be sub-.300 by the end of the season, the power/steal combo along with close to 100 runs/RBIs make Machado well worth buying high on now, especially in keeper leagues. If you have Hanley Ramirez, offer him up for Machado as soon as he returns. If you have Mark Reynolds, offer him up for Machado right now. I’d even consider flipping a Wright/Panda/Beltre-type for Machado plus another piece. The kid is that good.

Carlos Gomez

In one of my leagues, the guy who drafted “The Other Car-Go” was mocked mercilessly when he scooped him up in the 5th round. Well, ever since draft day, he’s been sending out weekly smack-talk updates about how well Gomez is performing, and I can’t blame him. After years of underperforming, Gomez has surprised everyone in the universe by picking up right where he left off last year, tallying 6 HRs and 8 SBs in only 36 games, all while batting a ridiculous .368/.408/.632. Of course his BABIP of .439 is unsustainable, but like Segura, Gomez isn’t going to lose his speed, and is on pace for 33 SBs.  Combine that with even 15 HRs on the year and you’ve got yourself a 2nd or 3rd round fantasy stud. And chances are he’ll have at least 20 HRs and more than 33 SBs (last year he swiped 37 in only 137 games), which would put him at elite status. I know it's hard to stomach after so many sub-par years, but I’m buying high on Gomez.

Sell These Low-lifes

Adam Dunn

Dunn looks old and slow. Yes, he has 7 HRs, which isn’t terrible, but he’s batting .137 and is on pace to drive in less than 60 runs! I’d wait until Dunn hits a couple of home runs, then try to flip him to an owner desperate for power for a mid-tier starter or even a prospect that could help your team down the road. Dunn is only going to help you in one category at this point, and while HRs are getting harder to come by, there are still some cheap sources of power out there as well - Pedro Alvarez, Mark Reynolds, etc.

Tim Lincecum

His last outing, Timmy went 7 strong and only gave up 2 hits to the Braves - sell, sell, sell while you can! I would flip Lincecum for just about any other decent starter at this point... perhaps offer a package deal for someone like Corbin or a slumping starter like Ian Kennedy. Lincecum has only his name to rely on at this point, and I’d cash in on that while I could.

Anyway, I'm babbling.  Let's get to this week's notes...

Keep On Keepin' On: Norichika Aoki.  Basically the only flaw I can point to in Aoki right now is his mediocre steal rate (four CS in 10 attempts this season) but unless you're in a league that penalizes getting thrown out, Aoki is a force right now.  He's hitting .299/.377/.445 with 21 runs scored and even four homers, a performance that stands out all the more considering that Aoki really was pretty ice-cold in April after a big opening week. 

I'm tempted to consider that Aoki is too streaky to be counted on for consistent fantasy performance, but even at his worst he's still getting on base and scoring a ton of runs atop Milwaukee's lineup.  Last season's 30 steal performance might be too much to ask for again (Aoki stole 45 bases combined in his last three years in Japan) but as a run-scoring, high-average, high-OBP third outfielder, Aoki is your man.  If he does pick up his theft rate, it's all gravy.

Hard Times: Jay Bruce.  I've never been a big Bruce fan in fantasy ball* simply because he's not a reliable everyday outfielder given his poor career splits away from Great American Ballpark (.710 OPS) and against left-handers (.748 OPS).  These splits were still apparent last season when Bruce his a career-best 34 homers and 99 RBI, numbers that no doubt led him to be drafted a few rounds higher than he should've this past spring.

* = huge Bruce fan in music, however.  His concert with the E Street Band in Toronto last August was maybe the best concert I've ever seen in my life.  Three-and-a-half hours of music!  29 songs!  A 40-minute encore!  No, I'm not getting off-topic, Springsteen and baseball go together hand in hand!  He sings about a speedball in "Glory Days" which is totally a real pitch.  Sure.  Whatever. 

Bruce owners are paying for their mistake now.  The Reds right fielder has just three homers to go with a .258/.306/.403 line entering Tuesday's action, plus a league-worst 52 strikeouts.  He's simply having trouble getting the bat on the ball right now, as evidenced by the fact that he's swinging at more pitches than ever (52.5%, up from his career 48.7%) and connecting on a career-low 78.8% of pitches in the strike zone, well below his 84.3% career average.  Moving Bruce now would definitely qualify as a sell-low situation but there's evidence Bruce could sink even lower; his BABIP is a whopping .365.  When the balls are falling your way over six weeks and you're STILL not hitting, that's a bad sign.

Future Shock: Matt Moore.  The Rays southpaw had a textbook quality start on Tuesday, allowing three runs on three hits and two walks over six innings, striking out eight Red Sox batters in the process.  You could say that three runs was a lot of damage given how impressive the rest of Moore's line was, perhaps making this the first time that Moore hasn't been kissed by Lady Luck during a start. 

Moore entered his start with a 2.14 ERA in real life but a lot of shaky peripherals --- a 4.46 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, 4.23 SIERA, 4.9 BB/9 and a BABIP of just .196.  Let's also not overlook his 96.1% strand rate, which is comically high even for a strikeout pitcher like Moore.  Roto Authority's Alex Steers McCrum noted Moore as a sell-high candidate even a few weeks ago, so there's still time to move him for some nice value before he finally comes back to earth.  It's not like Moore even pitched that badly against Boston but perhaps it's the beginning of his regression period.  Better that Moore regresses on someone else's roster, not yours.

Move On Up: Edwin Jackson.  It's pretty apparent by now that the universe hates the Cubs, so it's par for the course that their big $52MM offseason signing is 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA through his first eight starts in the blue pinstripes.  Jackson is one of those guys who I've always felt was properly rated by fantasy owners --- sure, there's a general sense he should have pitched better over the years, yet most fantasy owners have viewed Jackson as a back-of-the-rotation guy even when he's at top form. 

Therefore, if you've somehow stuck with Jackson as your fifth man despite his brutal numbers, you're probably making a mistake given how you can always find a decent fifth starter (even a short-term streamer) on the waiver wire....yet your mistake won't harm you since Jackson should be able to turn this around.  Jackson's ugly ERA has been inflated by bad luck in the form of a .333 BABIP and a 54.7% strand rate, as his FIP/xFIP/SIERA line is a much more reasonable 3.50/3.70/3.90.  Maybe Matt Moore is stealing all of Jackson's good fortune.

It's a fair assumption that Jackson will soon be back doing his usual Edwin Jackson things, so if you've shown this much patience with a replaceable fifth starter, you might as well hang onto him and reap some benefits.  Of course, this all becomes moot if the Cubs relegate Jackson to the bullpen, since really, you get so few opportunities in life to have a $52MM long reliever.  #GoatCurse

Adam Dunn, Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo -- The White Sox have a weekend series coming against the homer-prone Angels' rotation, and they'll be getting the two chief offenders in Joe Blanton and Jason Vargas. Dunn's stretch of futility is reaching legendary proportions, but the Angels could easily represent a cure for that. He hit a 415 foot homer to center field on Monday against the Twins... the only problem was that Aaron Hicks saw fit to pull it back over the wall. The White Sox may have the weakest offense in the AL, but they're facing one of the worst pitching staffs in the game. If you can stomach owning Big Donkey or Tank for a few days (and let's be honest, that's a tall order), a few cheap home runs might be in the offing.

Brandon McCarthy, Mike Leake -- Neither right-hander has been exactly dominant this season (McCarthy, in particular, has been brutal), but you'd have to be the 2013 version of Roy Halladay to get rocked by the Fish (sorry, Halladay owners). There are Little League World Series teams that pack more punch than the Marlins' Stanton-free lineup. The Fish have scored 10 runs in their past six games. Five times this month, they've scored one run or been shut out. McCarthy's scoreless eight-inning outing should be a confidence booster in him, as well.

Dan Haren -- Ok, ok, ok -- Haren't not available in 50% or fewer of either ESPN or Yahoo Leagues. He's owned in fewers than 75 percent of each, though, and he happens to be available in a pair of my leagues, so I felt the urge to include him. Haren's season has largely been a nightmare, but he's posted a 3.15 ERA with a 12-to-2 K/BB ratio over his past three turns. He faces a Padres lineup that has a .692 OPS against right-handed pitching on Sunday. There's definite risk involved with Haren, but if you're looking for a spot-start at the end of a head-to-head matchup you could do a lot worse.

Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner -- The Yankees will face a long run of right-handed pitching (with the exception of Mark Buehrle) including Aaron Harang and Ramon Ortiz (I swear, I'm not making that up... he's seriously alive). Better yet, they'll be playing the games at Yankee Stadium. Overbay has an .814 home OPS and a .974 OPS against right-handers, compared to .736 and .286, respectively. Hafner's home OPS of 1.037 and .969 OPS against right-handers dwarf his marks on the road (.772) and against lefties (.720).

Bronson Arroyo (Phillies) -- Demonstrating the best command of his career (1.4 BB/9), Arroyo is coming off a 6 2/3 innning scoreless outing against the Brewers and will face a Phillies team that is hitting .250/.308/.378 against right-handed pitching. His Saturday matchup carries risk, but as is the case with Haren, head-to-head owners could make far more outlandish risks as they look for late-week points.

Eric Stults -- Stults draws the Nationals on Saturday -- a team with a .587 OPS versus left-handed pitching as I write this. Jayson Werth is currently on the shelf, and there's a chance Bryce Harper could be sidelined for a few days (that's me speculating following last night's collision, of course). Stults' K/BB numbers are troubling, particularly of late (9 walks, 10 Ks in May), but the Nats are 25 points worse than any other club in OPS vs. lefties. Plus, Stults' 4.57 ERA on the season is 58 points higher than his 3.99 FIP. There are the makings of a good matchup here.

We're nearly one quarter our way through the season, so I figured it might be a good time to see which players have been the most valuable draft picks to date. This naturally begs the question: what makes one draft pick better than another? Well, ultimately the goal of this game is to get the best bang for your buck. In short then, it's all about value.

Now we have to be careful here in how we go about determining value. A player who outperforms his 26th round draft selection by 5 rounds is useful; however, a player who outperforms his 12th round draft slot by 5 rounds is far more valuable. This stems from the fact that the relationship between player values and draft position is not linear but rather logarithmic.

Todd Zola did some excellent work on this topic prior to Opening Day. As the fantasy expert states, "What we want to do is set a concrete boundary for players to be considered the same according to projected dollar value. All you need to do is take the round in which the player is ranked, multiply by three and that many players above and below the player in question are almost always within $2." Zola makes the link between draft round and the number of players within $2 in value, a rather negligible variance. Using his rule of thumb, a player drafted in round 5 will have 3 x 5 = 15 players with basically the same value.

This raises a few interesting revelations. Above all else, this reinforces the idea that on Draft Day we really shouldn't be tied to our dollar values. For one, dollar values are based on projections, which are really just estimates. If you have a guy ranked as the 10th best available player in Round 5 but you have high hopes for him, just draft him. Again, there's really not much difference in the other players you might have ranked ahead of him.

More importantly, though, the later you are in a draft, the greater the number of interchangeable commodities. This stands to reason; after all, the handful of players capable of going 30-30 will be scooped up by the end of Round 1 (except for Affordable Cargo, hat tip on the nickname to the PianoMan). In round 10, however, the best you can probably hope for in a power-speed contributor is to get double-digit totals in both HR and SB. Then again, unlike in Round 1 there are far more than just a few players who can provide what you want; indeed, you can find at least a dozen or so players who fit that description.

With this in mind then, it makes sense that if you plot the dollar values of players against draft selection, the graph is not linear. Now we all know Miguel Cabrera is a monster, but studs like him truly are leaps and bounds ahead of the pack. In any given season in a 12-team league, one can expect about 10 players worth between $30 and $40. If we use the same $10 window and examine players between $20 and $30, though, we'll find about 40 players. Continue this process on to look at players worth from $0 to $10, and you'll get well over 100 players. The point is the deeper you get into the player pool, there are fewer and fewer differences among the player values.

So back to the matter at hand: how do we determine value? Well, one method would be to simply subtract draft slot from current ranking on the ESPN Player Rater. As I've shown, though, this oversimplifies the process. Now if the RotoAuthority League employed an auction, it would make things a tad easier because we could simply subtract auction price from current dollar value. Unfortunately, it's still a straight draft league. On the bright side, however, thanks to excellent work by Bill Macey at BaseballHQ, we can convert draft slots into auction values using a logarithmic formula.

Here then are the Top 10 Draft Day Values thus far in the RotoAuthority League with draft selection in parentheses:

1. Jean Segura (242)

2. Starling Marte (193)

3. Manny Machado (215)

4. Chris Davis (134)

5. Carlos Gomez (93)

6. Matt Harvey (118)

7. Shelby Miller (256)

8. Coco Crisp (206)

9. Paul Goldschmidt (47)

10. Anthony Rizzo (67)

So now onto the more important question: which of these guys have the staying power to finish the year with truly breakout performances?

By the way, happy Mother's Day, Mom!

Trade For

If you had R.A. Dickey  and Cole Hamels in your rotation last year, your pitching was probably pretty good. This year...not so much. In Dickey's case, his strikeouts and velocity are down, while his homers and walks are up. It's an ugly mix, to say the least. So why do I recommend trading for the knuckleballer, when his problems appear not to be luck-related? Well, it's because of the inherent unpredictability of knuckleballs and those who throw them. It's natural to expect a higher degree of variance in their starts than in most. I'm not willing to give him a pass for his poor performance...but I'd be more than happy to buy low on him. 

Hamels is, to me, an even easier pitcher to trade for. Of course, you're less likely to find an owner willing to give up on him at this point than you are with Dickey. Hamels's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, and one can see from his FIP (4.42) and xFIP (4.15) that his mediocre ERA is of his own doing. That said, it's only been eight starts and he's been a world-class pitcher for five years now. I think he's earned more than a little benefit of the doubt, especially considering that his fastball velocity is actually up from last year.

Adam LaRoche is a fixture on any May trade-for or pick-up list. I'm not normally one to take a player's historical month-by-month splits very seriously, but with LaRoche it's appropriate to make an exception. In eight years (I added his partial 2004 and 2011 seasons into one), he's got a .214 average in 866 PA. He's a slow starter. He's starting to heat up. Nab him, especially if he's got a frustrated first-time owner.

Michael Morse was supposed to lose power in Safeco Field, and with it, most of his value. I, for one, was pretty skeptical about drafting him. Well, he's got nine homers and a .471 SLG in his first 30 games. The power seems to be there. What isn't is the average: he's dragging fantasy squads down with a mark of just .227. The good news is that he's suffering from a lousy .243 BABIP that's likely to come up. When it does, he ought to look a lot like the guy he was for the last season and half. Pretty useful.Oh, and he's had even worse luck on the road than at his much-maligned home park.

Trade Away

Jon Niese looked like a great pickup before the season, and he didn't start off terribly. Well, things have gotten terrible, as his K/9 has dropped from a healthy 7.33 last year to just 4.61 so far this year. Worse yet, his last couple performences have brought his K:BB ratio to 21:22. Exactly what's going on, I don't know. If you can include him as part of a larger package (and therefore sneak him onto someone else's team), do it. He's not a drop just yet, but he's getting unstartable.

Patrick Corbin is someone I've recommended picking up, but now is the time to send him packing. With a sparkly 5-0 record and a miniscule 0.38 HR/9, he's been a great fantasy pitcher. His track record, however, suggests that he should be a good fantasy pitcher going forward, and really nothing more. His strikeout and walk numbers support that thesis (6.99 K/9; 2.33 BB/9). If you can get a closer or a solid hitter for him, make the deal.

There is little in fantasy more difficult than trading a young player who could be a superstar in the making. The risk is very large--and all the more since it comes with the shame of trading away a player just as he's breaking out. All that said, the risk of standing pat is high too. Young players go up and down, sometimes looking like they've reached their full potential when they still have serious growing pains to get through. As such, I recommend trading Manny Machado, particularly if you have other serviceable 3B/CI options. He's been great so far, but a .351 BABIP suggests that he might not be this good yet. Rookies and young players with bright futures often command extra-high trade values, so if you can get a solid starting position player or a second/third tier SP, I would move Machado.

Shelby Miller just threw a perfect game, so trade him. (I know, I know, he allowed a hit first, but 27 outs in a row is still 27 in a row.) His trade value will never be higher and even the best rookie pitchers are rarely this good. Yes, I do think Miller will have a great rest of the season, command and deserve an ace-level draft pick next year and everything...but there is still a very good chance that you can get more value in a trade than he'll provide over the next couple months. If you can get the same return that you'd expect from a second-tier pitcher, like Max Scherzer, I think you'll be getting the better end of the deal, but aim higher and see how much you can get.

Pick Up

Luke Scott (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.2%/CBS: 5%) is hitting the ball well for the Rays and could be a very nice CI addition in Yahoo! leagues based on his history of hitting for power. Owners in other formats may be less interested, as he only qualifies at DH/Utility. Mitch Moreland (Y!: 11%/ESPN: 20.1%/CBS: 34%) has hit is well enough to quiet the rumors about Jurickson Profar moving up and Ian Kinsler moving over to first base for the moment. Lyle Overbay (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.4%/CBS: 6%) has a long history of marginal-ness, but he's certainly hitting well for the moment. Mark Teixeira may well squeeze him out of a job, but he's a good stopgap while he's hot.

Speaking of hot, Scott Kazmir (Y!: 16%/ESPN: 5.8%/CBS: 39%) is cooking with gas again. If he can regain any of his past magic, he'll be a great addition to any staff, especially those in need of strikeouts. If he can regain all of it....

Marcell Ozuna (Y!: 20%/ESPN: 12.7%/CBS: 29%) is hitting the cover off the ball for the Fish, to the tune of a .342/.390/.553 slash line. His .387 BABIP says that won't last long, but he doesn't have to win a batting title to be worth picking up, especially in deeper leagues.

Stay Away

Jeff Locke is gaining some traction as a pickup, but that's not a bandwagon you want to get on. His 2.95 ERA looks nice, but his K/9 (4.99) is way too close to his BB/9 (4.31) and his FIP (4.86). Nothing to see here.

This is a no-brainer for most, but just in case you were tempted, know that you really don't want Jason Marquis. His 5.15 FIP and 4.09 BB/9 don't tell me he can keep winning games.

If you're lucky enough to play in a weekly-changes league, then the first two capsules are for you, not to mention our up-to-date Closer Depth Chart, for each team's stopper and top backups.

Diamondbacks

Whether some underlying injury was why J.J. Putz struggled so much this season, I couldn't say. But I can say that he's out (mercifully, I guess), and out for a while. He's got a sprained ligament in his elbow, an irritated nerve, and something called a "strained flexor pronator." That all sounds bad enough to me, but the pitcher had to announce that he'd "never felt anything like that." Ouch. The bad news is, drop him, because he won't be back any time soon. The good news is, at least you won't be carrying him around on your roster for a month like Jason Motte, wondering whether to drop him or not.

So, who's replacing Putz? None other than Heath Bell. That "proven closer" tag comes in handy, doesn't it? Bell's ERA and WHIP are nothing to write home about so far this season, but he's struck out 20 batters in 14.3 IP, against only three walks. I don't have extreme confidence in Bell, but he is off to a promising start.

The rumors are a bit jumbled, but there seems to be a chance that David Hernandez will be mixed in sometimes, "depending on matchups," which seems odd, since both pitchers are right-handed. Maybe what they mean is that Bell will get the easy save chances, while Hernandez is brought in for the times Arizona is actually worried they might lose the game. Of course, if Bell falters, Hernandez will be quick to take the job. Matt Reynolds has two saves so far, but seems to be on the outside looking in at this point.

Red Sox

Joel Hanrahan. Andrew Bailey. Joel Hanrahan. Junichi Tazawa. Such is the list of Boston's closers this year, in order. For the moment, both Bailey and Hanrahan are sitting on the DL, and it's Tazawa's chance to shine. Hanrahan will be on the shelf for an unknown, long period of time. He's a very safe drop. Bailey will be out too, and it's hard to say at this point for how long, as the Red Sox don't have a timetable for him just yet. Keeping him seems worthwhile in most formats, as he stands a good chance at reclaiming the job whenever he does return.

Getting to Tazawa, however, pick him up! He's been lights-out so far, and Boston is playing extremely well. There's a good chance that he's one of baseball's most productive closers for the duration that he holds the job. Just in case he falters, his elder countryman Koji Uehara would presumptively step in.

Cubs

This is the last we'll see of the Cubbies in this space for a long while, since they've officially named one of baseball's most reliable relievers their closer for the moment and the future. That's right, Kevin Gregg will continue to hold the job, even when Kyuji Fujikawa returns from the DL. Oh wait, Gregg is one of baseball's least reliable performers? If he's still available (not likely), pick him up, but don't get too excited. If you're carrying Fujikawa in one of your DL slots, you can jettison him.

Dodgers

Brandon League entered the year as a man set up to fail, with flamethrower Kenley Jansen for a setup man. The thinking all preseason seemed to be that provided Jansen showed himself healthy, League would lose the job at the first plausible excuse. Well, here we are, at that first plausible excuse, and there are rumblings about making a change. Manager Don Mattingly has called the situation "a mess," a statement with more truth in it than I had expected to find, as League has given up at least a run in five of his last six appearances, while striking out only seven batters in 13.3 IP and sporting an ERA of 5.40. A change would be understandable. If Jansen is actually unowned in your league, I'd say it's time to pick him up.

Mets

Bobby Parnell should remain the closer when Frank Francisco comes back from the DL, though situations like this always seem to get dicey. Parnell owners shouldn't panic, because the closer has been superb this season, to the tune of a 1.29 ERA, an 0.57 WHIP, and nearly a strikeout per inning. Not that the Mets have given him many opportunities to save games, but he has managed to blow two of them compared to just three successes. Sometimes considerations like these factor more than they should in managerial decisions, which might be why Terry Collins left enough wiggle room for Francisco returning to the ninth after he settles in. He's not a good add by any means, but Parnell owners will want to monitor him.

Add-Vice

Bell should be the top add, not because he's the best, but because it seems quite clear that Putz will be on the shelf for a long time. If Bell can run with the job, the job will be there for him. Gregg would be next, as he's got a similar situation...but he's an even more unpredictable pitcher. Tazawa should be grabbed as well, though he is much more of a short-term buy, which is great if you own Bailey or play in a standard Roto league. Jansen should be picked up as well, as League really doesn't look long for the closing gig. You could make the case for picking Jansen over Tazawa, as when he gets the ninth, it will probably take an injury for Jansen to give it up. Francisco is someone to keep an eye on, as is David Hernandez. 

And how much good is Chris Denorfia doing on your bench, anyway? Or Mark Ellis after you picked him up when he was hot for about two games? Drop those types of dudes for one of these studs. When your opponents see that name in the add/drop notification box, they’ll think, “Damn. I thought I could wait a little longer to scoop him up.” Don’t be the guy who waited too long.

The Super Three

These three guys are the top prospects in baseball and are going to be compared to Bryce and Trout once they get called up, which is unfair to them but inevitable I guess. And who knows? Maybe they’ll come up and rake just like those two. One can only hope...

Wil Myers

Damn you and your hot streak, Matt Joyce! I was hoping to see Myers in the bigs by now, but the Rays are extremely careful with their prospects. Myers has nothing left to prove in the minors. Period. He hit .314 with 37 bombs last year (albeit in the PCL), and is raking again this year. He is my #1 impact prospect in baseball this year and the Rays will have to call him up by late summer, if not sooner. I doubt their lineup can keep hitting they way they are (12th most runs in baseball), and are going to need an extra bat.

Oscar Taveras

Chances are Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday hit the disabled list since you started reading this post. Sure, they can move Craig to the outfield and give Adams first-base once one of those guys goes down, but with his combination of power and speed, the Cards will have to give Taveras a shot at some point soon. He doesn’t walk very often, but Oscar could be an impact-player soon as he ges the chance.

Jurickson Profar

I listed Profar after the first two guys because even though he’s seen big-league action already and they haven’t, I think he’ll make the least impact of the three this year. With Mitch Moreland hitting lights out, there’s little chance they’ll move Kinsler to first to make room for Profar. And with Elvis Andrus’ 8-year, $120 million contract extension, clearly he’s not going anywhere. Nonethelss, Profar is a special talent that could make an impact immediately when he’s called up (again). I got a chance to see him in spring training this year, and he looked damn impressive, notching base hits from each side of the plate. The youngster has struggled a bit this year in Triple-A, but is striking out a lot less and walking more. That's a good sign. Profar should be owned in all leagues, especially with Kinsler’s injury history...

Pirate Booty

The Pirates are going to be incredibly exciting in a couple years, once their 1-2 pitching punch has arrived in the bigs. Who knows? They may even have a .500 record someday.

Gerritt Cole

Cole was the number one draft pick in 2011 and reached Triple-A in his first year in the minors. He has a miniscule 2.45 ERA so this year and there’s no question he’s ready for the show. And with Jonathan Sanchez being released and James McDonald’s injury, it seems like the Pirates could make a move soon, especially if they stay close in the pennant race (they’re only three games behind the Cardinals as of today). Cole’s fastball can hit triple digits, and he also has a nasty slider; once his changeup or curveball become as reliable as his first two pitches, there’s no telling how good he could be. This year he has walked too many batters and not struck out enough, but if the Pirates can stay competitive they’ll have no option but to call up their top prospect.

Jameson Taillon

This is more of a keeper league suggestion since Cole will most certainly be called up before Taillon (if only because Taillon just suffered a left shin contusion after being hit with a comebacker). Cole probably gets more accolades, but Taillon is an absolute monster in his own right, making the two of them the best pitching prospect duo in baseball (sorry, Mariners). Drafted right out of high school, Taillon stands 6'7"and can throw 99 mph. This season in Double-A he’s striking out over a batter per inning and sports a 3.26 ERA (and a 2.61 FIP). Many experts think Taillon won’t be up until 2014, but if the Pirates are still contending in August, you can bet they’ll take a long, hard look at the hard-throwing Texas native that Baseball America ranked the number-15 prospect in baseball.

Pick him up, then once Taillon makes it to the big leagues, celebrate by tying one on with a glass of Jameson.

Anyway, speaking of being correct and sounding like an idiot, here is your weekly dose of statistical analysis delivered in my usual buffoonish manner.

Thine Eyes Deceive You: Starling Marte.  The young Pirates star was leading the league in hits entering Tuesday's play but was also near the top of the charts in another, more telling category --- Marte's .398 BABIP is a sign that some regression is on its way.  For all Marte's gifts, he was never a big on-base guy even in the minors so once his grounders stop finding holes and his fly balls stop leaving the yard at a 20.8% rate, Marte is due for some hard times.  The good thing is, though, Marte's prospect pedigree and his good stolen base numbers should make him a very solid piece of trade bait; just don't go overboard and try to move Marte for an established superstar outfielder. 

Of course, from a pity standpoint, I hope Marte keeps it going all year long, since Pirates fans deserve some good luck after the last couple of decades.  One can't escape facts, however, and thus I hate to say that Marte's awesome start to the season seems destined to fizzle out.  You might say that a big season for Marte...(puts on sunglasses) isn't in the stars.  YEAHHHHHH

Move It Along, Nothing To See Here: Mike Moustakas.  In fact, if Bucs fans want to see a worst-case scenario for what the rest of Marte's 2013 campaign could look like, take a gander at the Moose.   The Royals third baseman got off to a great start in 2012, posting a .909 OPS through April, but slowly declined throughout the rest of the season.  He held it together for a respectable .749 OPS over the next two months and then really hit the skids, hitting just .221/.264/.357 over his last 77 games and finishing with a .296 OBP for the season.  The new season hasn't provided a fresh start, as Moustakas has just a .565 OPS in 2013. 

Plate discipline is one of the hardest skills for young hitters to master and don't forget, Moustakas is just 24 years old --- he might need a little more seasoning before you (or the Royals) can count on him as a reliable everyday option.  If you drafted Moustakas hoping he'd figure it out this season, I'd cut bait now and look elsewhere at the hot corner.  I say this despite the fact that Moustakas actually has a career-best (at any level) 9.6% walk rate and his BABIP is only .218 but I question if these are signs of a forthcoming breakout this season or just signs that Moustaskas will eventually be a worthwhile big leaguer down the road.  I mean, as Alex Gordon taught us, Royals prospects have to break our hearts for at least three or four years before finally delivering, right?

Move It Along, Nothing To See Here (Besides Something): Anthony Rizzo.  There was a mass evacuation of the Rizzo bandwagon a couple of weeks ago when the Cubs first baseman was hitting a measly .173/.256/.420 following the Cubs' 4-3 win over the Marlins on April 25.  Rizzo proceeded to post a 1.350 OPS over his next 48 PA, however, so I think we can safely hold off on calling Rizzo a bust and, I dunno, blaming Steve Bartman for it, somehow.  Rizzo should finish the year somewhere in the .850-.900 OPS range, since while his 23.7% home run rate is sure to come down, the fact that he's hitting more fly balls overall (a rather large 42.7%) won't hurt him much in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.  Throw in the homers, throw in a healthy walk rate that will be helped by a healthy dose of free passes (I mean, have you SEEN the rest of the Cubs lineup?) and Rizzo should be good to go for the rest of the season.  My only hesitation is that I'd sit him against a quality left-handed starter, so hopefully you have a decent first base backup on your fantasy roster. 

Look Closer: David Price.  If you're a Price owner who is beginning to panic over your man's 6.25 ERA, breathe easy.  The Cy Young winner's numbers are inflated by two brutal starts against the Indians and Rockies (17 ER over those 11 2/3 IP), a very high .351 BABIP and a 20.5% HR rate that is over twice as large as his career average.  If you go by the advanced metrics, Price's numbers are much less scary -- the Rays southpaw owns a 4.43 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and a 3.47 SIERA.  Those still aren't quite "elite ace" numbers but Price will very likely be just fine.  There's no need to move him in a panic trade, like, say, dealing Price for Jason Heyward and Jon Niese like one guy in one of my leagues did two weeks ago.  Man, I sure wish I was the lucky manager who snagged Price in that deal...oh wait, I WAS.  *self high-five*

04/25 A Century of Misery trades Shelby Miller to Brewsterville Bruins for Rickie Weeks

OK, I'm a little hesitant to discuss this trade, as the Peanut Gallery thought I got ripped off here. At the very least, I can explain why I made the deal. My middle infield has been a disaster thus far. After losing Jose Reyes for three months and then Erick Aybar for a couple weeks, I was utilizing a combination of the godawful Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis at second base. Granted, Rickie Weeks is off to a miserable start, but I feel second base falls off a cliff after the top ten. Maybe I should have aimed higher given the rising market value of Shelby Miller, but I was content with the deal. The real question here is just how good is Shelby? I'm naturally skeptical of young pitchers, but even I have to admit Miller looks legitimate. I had Weeks projected to be far more valuable in the preseason, so should I really change my opinion based on one month of play? This trade may look awful in October, but I at least filled a positional need. I tip my cap to the Bruins if this deal proves to be a disaster for me.

04/29 Forty 2 Twenty 4 trades Mark Reynolds to Brewsterville Bruins for Joel Hanrahan

It's amazing how quickly player values can change in fantasy baseball. Timing is everything in the art of the deal. Here's a classic example. Two days before this trade, Peter Abraham of Boston.com speculated that Joel Hanrahan would get the closer job back afer returning from the DL. The day after the Bruins dealt away Hanrahan, however, Manager John Farrell announced that Andrew Bailey would remain the closer. So in a matter of hours, Forty 2 Twenty 4 went from acquiring a solid closer to a worthless setup man for the red-hot Mark Reynolds. Funny thing is this story isn't over, as Bailey is now set to undergo an MRI on his bicep. Overall, I like this move to buy high on Reynolds by the Bruins. Sure, he's likely to slow down, but he certainly still provides nice pop. It's tough to blame Forty 2 Twenty 4 too much, though, as the price of a closer is rather inflated in the RotoAuthority League.

04/30 UP trades Josh Hamilton, Jhonny Peralta, and Carlos Marmol to Philly Cheez for Lorenzo Cain, Andrelton Simmons, and Jason Grilli

On paper this looks like a blockbuster, but let's break it down to its crux. Since the trade took place, Philly Cheez has dropped not only Jhonny Peralta but also Carlos Marmol, so clearly this owner made the deal simply to acquire Josh Hamilton. Now here's a player I want no part of going forward. It's been well documented that Hamilton has been swinging at everything in sight this season, and his strikeout to walk ratio has spiked dramatically. There's no denying the talent, but I'm bearish that he'll be able to make an adjustment this season. So what did UP get in return? Well, for one, he got an elite closer in performance but not in name in Jason Grilli. The career path certainly is strange, but Grilli is proving that last year's elite skills were no fluke. In addition, UP received a popular preseason sleeper in Lorenzo Cain. After missing significant time last season, Cain is off to a fast start this year. At the very least, he should be able to produce as a top 50 outfielder with contributions in BA and runs; the total in the SB column will determine if he's a true breakout performer. Finally, to replace Peralta UP acquired Andrelton Simmons. Another player with name value, here's one I don't see the merit in quite yet. Sure, it's delightful to watch him play defense, but from a fantasy perspective I still view him as replacement-level at middle infield in Mixed Leagues.

Trade Targets

B.J. Upton is off to a start as bad as his brother's is good. Always a drag on batting average, he's killing owners like me Adam Dunn-style so far, while putting up little of his trademark power or speed. It's hard to steal bases with a .223 OBP. In fact, he's been so frustrating that I almost put him on the Trade Away list because I've grown to hate seeing his name in my lineup. That's an emotion you can use. His BABIP is a frightening .185, over 100 points below his career norm, much of which can be traced to his eye-popping infield fly rate of 29.6%, well over double his highest full season number. The two options seem to be that he figures out how to cut those popups down, or he's all washed up at age 28. The former seems much more likely.

Will Middlebrooks isn't so bad off as B.J., but he's still dragging averages down with a .198 mark. A .217 BABIP seems to be the problem, while the major change in his batted ball data is that he was a groundball hitter last year and a flyball hitter this year. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, as his six homers will attest. His BABIP ought to normalize, at which point he could be a four-category monster in a heavy lineup. The upside is clear, and the downside is mitigated by the weak and injured status of third basemen around the league.

Gio Gonzalez is a risky trade proposition, as with slightly lowered velocity and a walk rate over 5.00, his troubles haven't been entirely due to luck. His ERA sits at 5.35, but his FIP is better at 4.09, and his xFIP better still at 3.51. So, some bad luck seems to be exacerbating things. With a K/9 over 10.00 and a quality lineup, there's still plenty of upside if you can trade for him at a significantly reduced price.

Clay Buchholz has been almost too good to trade away, but if his owner is looking to sell high, consider being the buyer. His years of sub-mediocrity make him look like a sell target, with his 1.01 ERA, but the underlying story says otherwise. He's got a sparkly 2.26 FIP and a very good 2.99 xFIP, to go with a strikeout rate of 9.47. The indications are that he isn't the same pitcher that has filled Red Sox Nation with disappointment for the last few years. If you're still skeptical, check out this article from Fangraphs. If you're still skeptical after that...um, don't trade for Buchholz, I guess.

Trade Away

Carlos Gomez went from disappointing speedster to power/speed fantasy gold last season, and he's kept it up this year. Owners were bullish on him in drafts, and they've been vindicated so far, as Gomez has delivered five homers and seven steals. His usually low average sits at an impressive .367. Okay, I understate. It's at an unbelievable .367. How'd it get there? Try a .419 BABIP, with help from a line drive percentage up four points from last season. Even if his hit profile has changed (and one month of extra liners doesn't prove much), he hasn't magically transformed into Joey Votto with speed. Deal him, as he could fetch a pretty serious return.

Jay Bruce is the sort of slumping superstar that I would have expected to advise you to trade for...until I looked under his statistical hood. He's got just one homer and 43 strikeouts through 30 games--his HR/FB has cratered to just 4.1%, while his popup rate has more than doubled. Everything seems to be going wrong...except his batting average. It's low--just .258--but actually better than last year. Thanks to a BABIP over 100 points higher than last year, at .388. When the BABIP goes, the results will be horrifying. Exactly what's wrong with Bruce, I couldn't say, but I can say that he's actually been lucky. Trade him while you can.

Matt Kemp is experiencing a power outage of his own, which I worried about before the season. Probably because of his surgically repaired shoulder, things are actually worse than I expected and it looks like a loss of flyball distance  could be the culprit. His batting average is a mediocre .267, buoyed by a fortuitous .351 BABIP. That could easily drop before his shoulder heals, but it's still early enough to recoup a good return for him.

I mentioned Matt Moore as a trade candidate last week, and I'll just back that up now by pointing out that his 4.08 FIP compares unfavorably with his 1.98 ERA.

Pick Up

Brandon McCarthy's ERA sits at a whopping 7.22, but his FIP is just 4.04. A skilled pitcher, he ought to be able to improve on that FIP, let alone the ERA. His ownership rates are just: Y!: 30%/ESPN: 16.5%/CBS: 28%. If his is owned, he makes a sneaky-smart throw in, in a larger deal.

Hector Santiago (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.1%/CBS: 8%) briefly closed for the White Sox last year, but now he'll be moving into the rotation. His first start was successful, and, with Gavin Floyd out, we could be seeing lots of the hard-throwing Santiago in the rotation. Very interesting waiver wire opportunity.

Francisco Liriano (Y!: 5%/ESPN: 0.2%/CBS: 25%) has been mowing down the International League for the Indianapolis Indians on his rehab assignment, but he's should be up with the big club again soon. He's got as much upside--and downside--as anyone on the waiver wire.

Chris Tillman (Y!: 17%/ESPN:  2.3%/CBS: 34%) has rattled off three good starts in a row, making four of six. The mere possibility that he's finally harnessing his talent makes him worth a speculative add.

Nick Hundley (Y!: 8%/ESPN: 5.2%/CBS: 23%) is batting over his head, with a .421 BABIP, but he's got three homers and nine doubles. He's shown some power in limited playing time before, and he could be a very useful stopgap option if you're having trouble at catcher. Unlike most such options, he's got a bit of upside.

Domonic Brown (Y!: 24%/ESPN: 22.5%/CBS: 73%) was a hot pick after his torrid spring, but he saw his ownership rates drop after a relatively slow start. Well, he's got five homers and an average that won't kill you--pick him up unless you have a great outfield. Not that you have that option in CBS leagues....

Just Say No

Scott Feldman is a hot pickup lately, after whiffing 12 Padres in a complete game on May 1. It was a truly dominating performance, but remember, it was against the Padres, and his overall game isn't impressive. Stay away.

Ricky Romero once pitched over his head all season and made an All-Star team. Once he was even a pretty decent pitcher. Last year, he was basically the worst starter in the Majors. Nothing about his return to the bigs indicated otherwise. He'll probably get some pickups based on the familiarity of his name alone, but don't get sucked into that. His best-case scenario is no better than being average-ish, without strikeouts. The downside is that he bombs your ratios for several starts and gets sent back to the minors. Nota good bet.

Diamondbacks

Last week we mentioned the trouble that J.J. Putz has gotten himself into, and now he's blown another save. The good news for owners is that he saved two successfully and earned a win in the past week, but he's still up to four blown saves, meaning he's just 5/9 in SV/OPP. He hasn't pitched horribly, but he hasn't been great, and that might not be good enough much longer.

Arizona isn't saying anything about demoting Putz, to whom they've allocated a significant contract, but they do have other options. Lucky for Putz owners, the best of those options, David Hernandez, just blew a game himself. Heath Bell "can handle the ninth" because he used to be good at it, and Matt Reynolds has shown himself to be a quality arm. If things don't get better for Putz, expect to see some combination of these three pitchers in the ninth inning for Arizona.

Cubs

Carlos Marmol (10BB/10.7 IP) is a known walk machine, but this level is bad even for him. He's supposedly still in the Cubbie committee, but for how long? Making matters worse is that six of those have come in his last four appearances, while Kevin Gregg has pitched like a hero. He's saved four games in a row without walking a batter in that span. Looking to before he was inserted into the closing picture, Gregg has struck out six batters in 5.1 IP, with just three hits and two walks allowed. Even better, his last three outings have been perfect. The question is less one of competition between Gregg and Marmol, but about whether Gregg closes when Kyuji Fujikawa returns. 

A word of caution: a few well-timed good innings shouldn't make us forget why the Cubs were able to find Gregg on the proverbial scrapheap in the first place: we're talking about a guy with a lifetime 4.04 BB/9 rate, whose last two season-long WHIP's were in the 1.60's. Proven closer does not mean proven control artist.

Brewers

John Axford was supposed to be on his way back to the closer's job, but an eighth inning loss to the Pirates pushed his ERA back over 10.00 and him just a little farther from his old line of work. The homer he allowed was his fifth in 10.7 IP this season. Yeah, he's allowed a longball every other inning. Maybe Axford's progress was real and this is just a hiccup on the road back to ninth-inning dominance. Or maybe not. For now, keep hanging on to Jim Henderson.

Red Sox

Joel Hanrahan is back off the DL, but Andrew Bailey is still closing for the Sox. Bailey has been flat-out excellent, and if that doesn't change it's hard to see Hanrahan (who came into the year sporting shaky peripherals) muscling his way back into the ninth inning. Right now, the plan is to let Hanrahan work his way into a setup role, but no farther. While that may change, Bailey is looking like one of baseball's most solid closers at the moment.

The above is what I wrote before seeing that Hanrahan came in for the save Thursday while Bailey was out with bicep soreness. So far it appears that the injury is minor and that Bailey will close when available. Hang on to Hanrahan for now, though I still expect Bailey to run with the job.

Angels

Ernesto Frieri (11BB/12.3 IP) has only blown one save, but he could be in for some seriously bad outings if he can't get his wake rate of nearly 9.00/9. The good news is that he's striking out over a batter per inning (15K's), and holding his ERA (2.19) together. There might be a reason that the Angels wanted Ryan Madson to close. I would strongly consider moving him before the blown saves start racking up. Dane de la Rosa and Scott Downs have worked a lot in the eighth inning lately, though Downs's left-handedness gives the edge to de la Rosa.

Add-Vice

Gregg (Y!: 37%/ESPN: 66.7%/CBS: 26% owned) is worth picking up in pretty much all formats. David Hernandez (Y!: 16%/ESPN: 7.8%/CBS: 16%) is the best choice for a handcuff to J.J. Putz. The nice thing about picking him up is that he's one of the most valuable setup men around, meaning he won't waste your roster spot while you wait for him to take the job. If you're desperate for saves or worried about Frieri, then de la Rosa (basically unowned) might be a good choice. Keep in mind that Frieri will probably have to blow a couple actual games before the Angels even make noise about a change.

The Stinky Fish

Giancarlo Stanton can’t stay healthy. It’s so sad to watch that all that potential get bogged down with nagging injuries (it also sucks that on one league I traded for him the day before I got injured). It also means the Marlins are in all likelihood going to wait to trade him until he can prove he can stay healthy for an extended period of time and they can get full value for him... which sucks. I want Stanton to go to the Yankees, or Braves, or Rangers, or basicall ANYWHERE BUT THE MARLINS. But I digress. Stanton is out, which could mean an opportunity for two fantastic prospects:

Marcell Ozuna

He’s obviously the one to pick up first since he’s got the first shot at the job. For better or worse, “The Ozuna Layer” has been compared to Adam Dunn - lots of power, tends to strike out, extremely streaky, is allergic to gluten and loves Game of Thrones (okay, I made up the last two). He already smacked 5 HRs in only 10 games at Double-A this year, so the power is there. He’s looked okay during his first couple games, so I suggest taking a flyer on him and seeing if he gets hot. But if Ozuna stumbles out of the gate, it’s worth taking a look at:

Christian Yelich

The Marlins’ best hitting prospect, Yelich might not have the power (or arm) that Ozuna has, but he’s a much better all-around hitter. He’s not exactly lighting Double-A on fire right now (only batting .267 with 0 HRs), but Yelich looked like Babe Ruth this spring and is expected to be called up by the end of the season. And with Stanton out, he could very well get his chance sooner rather than later. After all, the Marlins called up Jose Fernandez earlier than expected - who’s to say they won’t do the same with Yelich.

The Terrible Twins

The Twins are lucky to be even close to .500.  How their collecting pitching staff -- led by “ace” Vance Worley -- has an ERA below 4.00 is beyond me. But they do have two young outfielders who have shown potential.

Oswaldo Arcia

He’s only hitting .216 so far in his brief stint in the bigs, but “Lee Harvey” Oswaldo has significant power (he already has two bombs in ten games), and can hit for average (he tore up Double-A last year the the tune of .328/.398/.557). With the ceiling of a number three hitter, Arcia is seeing significant playing time and is worth grabbing before he gets hot and becomes a popular pick-up.

Aaron Hicks

Oh, how times have changed...since a month ago. Hicks was among the most popular “sleepers” this spring (if you can even call them that anymore, since everyone knows about them), and then had one of the most miserable starts to a major league career in recent memory. The bad news: he’s hitting .113/.229/.127. The good news: he’s getting better. Since being dropped down in the order, he has a hit in 7 of his last 9 games, and obviously his speed is still there. You could do worse for a 5th outfielder in deepor AL-only leagues.

File Under “Duh”

Nolan Arenado

If he’s still somehow unowned in your league, A) pick him up, and B) find a more competitive league.

Special Bauer Bonus

Trevor Bauer

Although he’s a worse rapper than Ma$e, Trevor Bauer can K batters like crazy. He’s had some control issues (okay, a lot of control issues), but took a huge step forward yesterday against the Phillies, mowing down 5 batters in 5 innings and only giving 1 hit and no runs.  Okay, so maybe he walked 6 batters in the process, but we won’t mention that. The guy can flat-out pitch. We might be looking at the next Tim Lincecum (in a good way).

Winter Is Coming: Wei-Yin Chen.  Many pundits wrote off the Orioles in 2013 given that their success last year was largely attributed to their record-breaking success in one-run games.  No team, it was argued, could possibly be as lucky again.  Well, while the O's haven't kept up their impossible clutchiness in close games (they are 4-5 in one-run games so far this season), Lady Luck is still hanging out with McNulty and the Bunk over in Baltimore.  No team in baseball has a lower team BABIP than the O's, and the rotation's poster boy in this regard is Chen, he of the .226 BABIP.  The Taiwanese southpaw has a sparkling 2.53 ERA over five starts....but he also owns a 3.74 FIP, 5.13 xFIP and a 5.38 SIERA.  He's not striking people out (4.50 K/9) or inducing ground balls (26.3% GBR) so it's just a matter of time before Chen's numbers start reflecting his shaky performance.  Or, the correction will never happen because Buck Showalter is actually a sorcerer. 

We Do Not Sow: Melky Cabrera.  There are a lot of underachievers on the Toronto roster right now but the scary thing for the Jays right now is that the Melk Man isn't really one of them.  Cabrera was hitting .250/.301/.298 going into Tuesday's play and while it's easy to point to his PED suspension as the reason for his lack of power, what we really could be seeing is just a course correction.  Cabrera's BABIP is only slightly below average (.292) and his other numbers generally reflect his career norms.  His stats, in fact, are just a few home runs shy of his stat lines from 2005-2010.  It may be his big two years with the Royals and Giants in 2011-12 that were the real outliers --- Cabrera's BABIP in 2011 was .332 and an enormous .379 in 2012.  You're really selling low on Melky if you're trying to move him right now but let's face it, pre-2011 Melky was not a legit fantasy starter.  You might not want to give Cabrera more than a couple more weeks to see if he can turn it around.

Hear Me Roar: Matt Carpenter.  My love of multi-position players is well-known so naturally, I was all over 1B/2B/3B/OF-eligible Carpenter from day one.  I drafted him in four of my five leagues --- he's a super-sub off the bench in three leagues and in the other he became a starter at second base once he gained eligibility at the position.  The best part about the Carpenter experience is that he can be a legitimate fantasy starter himself, not just a capable fill-in when your regular starters have a day off.  Carpenter is hitting .272/.343/.457 in 104 PA, his BABIP is a very reasonable .306 and his career minor league numbers (.299/.408/.450) suggest that he'll be able to keep producing at the Major League level.  So in short, the Cardinals' farm system is so strong that not only can it generate top prospects on a seemingly annual basis, but now they're able of producing top prospects with the same names as other Cardinals stars who are on the DL.  Way to save on jerseys, St. Louis!  

Growing Strong: Ike Davis.  We still like Ike.  His .180 BABIP is most of the reason for his slow start given that his walk rate (12.6%) and line drive rates (20.4%) are actually both higher than his career averages.  Beyond the peripherals, I'd also say part of the problem could be in the Mets' deployment of Davis, as over a quarter of his PA have come against left-handed pitching this season and Davis' career splits indicate that he is brutal against southpaws.  The Mets obviously are hoping Davis develops into an everyday option for them at first base but your fantasy team doesn't need to operate under this logic.  If you're an Ike owner, keep putting him in your lineup whenever he's facing a righty starter and you'll eventually reap the rewards.

• Kyle Kendrick (Yahoo: 25% | ESPN: 23%), Andrew Cashner (27%, 5%), Jonathan Pettibone (1%, 1%), Dillon Gee (7%, 0%) -- What do all four right-handers have in common? Facing a Giancarlo Stanton-less Marlins offense within the next week. It's redundant to pick on the Marlins, but this is a group that's hitting .226/.287/.312 as a team. Wade LeBlanc is a career .252/.279/.262 hitter. It's barely a downgrade from the rest of their lineup when he's in. Those matchups are listed in my preferred order, for what it's worth.
• Cashner, in particular, is a great add for today because he's set to face the Cubs tomorrow. You'll have a hard time finding a widely available starter with that combination of strikeout rate and matchup friendliness.
• Patrick Corbin (48%, 74%) -- I'm not really sure why Corbin's owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues thus far given his strong start, but he's facing a lame-duck Padres offense that shouldn't give him too many problems. Corbin's not the ace he's looked the part of thus far, but he's gone at least six innings in each outing with two or fewer earned runs in each start. Show him some love, Yahoo managers.
• David Phelps (6%, 1%) -- Phelps has whiffed 22 hitters in 17 innings so far in 2013 after posting an 8.7 K/9 in 99 2/3 innings last season. On Wednesday he gets to face the Astros, who are making a run at becoming baseball's all-time whiffiest team. Phelps has been killed by a .357 BABIP, 66 percent strand rate and 14.3 percent HR/FB, so there's reason to expect he can outperform the ugly picture painted by his 5.27 ERA.
• Nick Tepesch (9%, 2%) -- Tepesch and teammate Justin Grimm have been impressive thus far, but it's Tepesch who strikes me as the better play against the White Sox. Tepesch has limited the damage more effectively against right-handed hitter, which combats the Sox two biggest offensive threats in Alex Rios and Paul Konerko. He's also put the ball on the ground at a 57.4 percent clip -- significantly higher than Grimm. Either is likely a reasonable play against the Sox, but I favor Tepesch slightly.
• Justin Morneau (55%, 60%), Oswaldo Arcia (2%, 1%), Aaron Hicks (3%, 1%) -- The Twins are headed to Cleveland on Friday to face a trio of right-handers -- Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Zach McAllister -- that have struggled against left-handed hitters. Masterson's control woes are nothing new. McAllister is a homer-prone fly-ball pitcher. Jimenez has just been lost against everyone since 2011. Hicks has been lost himself, but he's hitting .263 with a .333 OBP over his past eight games and should see some free passes against a walk-happy staff, which will give him some stolen base opps. Morneau and Arcia should see plenty of men on base in front of them, leading to ample RBI opps against a trio that's weak against lefties.
• Andy Dirks (2%, 1%) -- Dirks is hitting a whopping .196/.311/.275 on the season, so this is a bit of a leap of faith. If you're in a deep league and in need of an outfielder (that's you, Peter Bourjos owners) or just like to make crazy gambles, Dirks is a career .285/.336/.441 hitter against right-handed pitching, and the Tigers will face plenty of it against the Astros from Thursday to Sunday. Not only that, but the woeful 'Stros have yielded a .909 OPS to left-handed hitters this season. If there's anything that can cure Dirks' slump, it's a four-game set against sub-replacement-level pitching. Dirks did also just club his first homer of the season -- another reason for optimism.
• Chris Denorfia (5%, 4%) -- Speaking of deep league pick-ups or gambling fliers... Denorfia is a known lefty masher (.317/.382/.456 in his career) that will be getting a run of lefties including Travis Wood, Wade Miley, Patrick Corbin and Wade LeBlanc in the coming six days. He's been tremendous through 23 games thus far (.316/.373/.447) and could kick contribute in both homers and steals. You could probably do worse than playing those odds.

Fantasy baseball truly is a grind. We spend the winter analyzing statistics from every angle, fine-tuning dollar values, and practicing strategies in mock drafts. It seems like Draft Day will never get here, but at long last it finally comes.

But then something strange happens...

We're reminded that, oh yeah, we're going to play this thing out, and it's going to require a daily commitment like you wouldn't believe. Now granted, a solid draft is key to success in a fantasy baseball league. (Otherwise, why spend far too many words writing a draft recap about it, amirite?) More so than in the past, though, in the modern era this game we play really begins after Draft Day.

In a world in which we're constantly inundated with information, we see very little variance among player rankings across various sites. The term "sleeper" has become obsolete. So if everyone knows everything, how can one get ahead? Well, in-season management may very well be the new inefficiency.

Sure, some picks are better than others (like yours truly selecting the injury-prone Jose Reyes in Round 2), but the real edge in this game doesn't come on Draft Day. In a league like the RotoAuthority League with daily pickups and lineup changes,  the most crucial facet of this game is now in-season management.

Accordingly, with just about a month in the books, I figured it might be a good time to see which players have been the top free agent acquisitions in the RotoAuthority League thus far. Here then are the top 10 most valuable players according to the ESPN Player Rater among those who went undrafted in this league:

1. Clay Buchholz

2. John Buck

3. Nate McLouth

4. Vernon Wells

5. Justin Masterson

6. Hisashi Iwakuma

7. Ervin Santana

8. Jim Henderson

9. Travis Hafner

10. Brandon Crawford

So which of these players have staying power? Will Buck follow other aging catchers and have one of those randomly good seasons? Could McLouth recapture the fantasy gold of 2008? Do Vernon and Hafner still have something left in the tank? Can Masterson and Ervin enjoy bouceback campaigns? Well...

I'm a skeptic by nature, and in all honesty this list doesn't look all that appealing to me. If anything, this list is a reminder that the season is still young, and we have very little idea as to how it will play out. If you take a random sample of a month at any time during the season, players like these can certainly be in the midst of a hot stretch. Things just get magnified when that hot stretch takes place in April.

So, yes, Clay Buchholz may finally be living up to the high expectations that we placed upon him. But the rest of this list? Well, who knows.

The real lesson here, though, is to capitalize on these stretches in leagues with daily lineup changes. Did Brandon Crawford figure out how to hit? Well, you're not going to lose all that much by making the free agent pickup. The potential reward far outweighs the risk, and in today's game speculative moves like these can make the difference between cashing or not.

Moments later, Sexson hit a home run.

In fantasy baseball (and much of life, perhaps), every move you make is its own gamble, small or large. There are two good reasons to make a bet: one, the side you're taking has a very good chance of coming to pass (me, wagering that Sexson will not homer right  at this moment), whether the gain is small or large; two, the potential gain is very large, and just possible enough to justify the fact that it will probably not pay off (my friend, wagering that Sexson will homer right now). Over the long run, these are the bets that pay off and win fantasy leagues. 

Some of the bets I'll suggest below are of the kind that I think likely to happen...others are riskier choices that may end up with a bigger payoff. What about bets that combine the two? You made those in your draft.

Trade For

Dan Haren has started to pick up a little velocity on his fastball, sitting at about 90mph for much of his most recent outing, while striking out five and walking none (interestingly, the third start this year in which he's performed that feat). Is he all the way back, or even definitively healthy. Well, no. This is one of those riskier options. If he takes off, he could be a bargain-bin ace. Or maybe he'll fall again. The trouble is that once you know for sure that he's on track he won't be on the trading block anymore.

Josh Reddick is finally on a hot streak, though he's striking out a ton and batting just .155 with one home run. Very disappointing for those who had dreams of another 30-HR season, which may already be out of reach. The good news is just .192 (last year it was .269). He's pounding the ball into the ground at a 39.6% rate (up 10% from last year!), and popping up 20% of the time. His HR/FB rate has dropped to just 4%. So why am I interested in getting this guy? Well, because these are all things the young hitter should be able to fix, and his current stretch of success might be suggesting that he already has.

Anthony Rizzo is a simple case of BABIP value, so if his owner is statistically inclined, don't expect to pry him away. If not, consider that his miserable .195 AVG will go up when his unsustainably bad .170 BABIP does. The homers are already among the league leaders, so an excellent season could well be in the making.

Lucas Duda remains unowned in a significant number of leagues (CBS: 70%/ESPN: 34%/Yahoo!: 24%), but his 17 walks are tied for fourth in baseball, and his .438 OBP sandwiches him in between Miguel Cabrera and Dustin Pedroia on the leaderboard. With five homers to go along with the on-base, I'm on board with trading for Duda, as he's looking like a relatively low-risk bet.

Pick Up

Andrew Cashner (CBS: 39%/ESPN: 2.4%/Yahoo!: 17%) is a strikeout machine and he appears to be in the rotation for good. He immediately becomes the Padres' best pitcher and he's a smart add for any fantasy team. Grab him while you can, because these low numbers are likely to spike in the next week.

David Phelps (CBS: 11%/ESPN: 0.1%/Yahoo!: 3%) will be slotting into the Yankees rotation. If he pitches well, he might even stick over Ivan Nova, though that isn't necessarily a given. He hasn't gotten good results out of the bullpen (ugly 5.29 ERA/1.47 WHIP), but he's been racking up strikeouts (22 K's in 17 IP). He's worth a try, especially in deeper leagues.

Carlos Ruiz (CBS: 50%/ESPN: 13%/Yahoo!: 21%) is coming back from his suspension, so nab him off the waiver wire if he's available. He mashed last year and, while he isn't incredibly likely to repeat those numbers at age 34, there's little reason not to give him a chance.

Trade Away

Matt Moore just won his fifth game of the season, and he's dealing to the tune of a 1.12 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a 10.69 K/9. So why am I considering offering him up in trades? Because a young pitcher who was expected to do well, and is pitching amazingly can fetch a huge return. Am I betting against Moore breaking out and joining the aces this year. Not really, I think there's a great chance he does. But, as with Matt Harvey and Shelby Miller last week, I think Moore represents an opportunity to get even more value back than he'll give for the rest of the season.

Bryce Harper and Justin Upton are off to fantasy baseball's best starts and here I am recommending you send them packing. I wasn't high on Upton before the season began, I'll admit, but even I can see that he's not in line for another disappointing 17-HR campaign. But here's the thing: Upton won't be hitting 88 homers (his current pace), and Harper won't end up with 60, or a .374 average (probably). Both guys are superstars and both are having great months. There's no better time to trade them, especially with their level of youth and hype. Don't do it if you can't get an absolutely outrageous return, but I'd be willing to bet you can.

Cubs

Quick, guess the two most recent Cubs to save a game! That's right, Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg. If this isn't a mixture for excitement, I don't know what is. Expect strikeouts and lots and lots of walks in the ninth inning while these guys tackle the job. The good news is that Marmol has been pitching well enough to drive his ERA all the way down to 4.35, having not been scored upon since April 6th. The bad news is that his WHIP still sits at 1.80, and he walked five batters and hit one in his last three appearances. I think the Cubs will take any opportunity they can get to let Marmol save games, as his trade value is a lot better if he can be passed off as a "proven closer." If he falters before Fujikawa returns or he is traded, Gregg looks like he'll be in line for most of the saves. Why? Well, why not? It's bad news for Shawn Camp and James Russell, though they aren't officially out of the saves mix.

Tigers

Speaking of pitchers out of the saves mix...Jose Valverde is back. Up in the Majors, he's already saved a game in his lone appearance and owned in 58% of Yahoo! leagues. Go ahead and snag him in just about all formats. He probably doesn't have the most job security in the world, but I imagine that the Tigers won't want to throw themselves back into closer-uncertainty-land soon after leaving it. He might get more rope than most pitchers of his skill level. On another note, Bruce Rondon is up in the Majors, though his manager seems pretty happy not to be using him in the ninth. If Rondon is lights out and Valverde gets lit up, a change is possible. Sorry, Joaquin Benoit hopefuls... 

Brewers

Nothing's wrong with Jim Henderson, who's saved the game in his last three appearances, but rumor has it that John Axford might be back in the old job soon. There hasn't been an official timetable or anything, but the Ax Man hasn't allowed a run or walked a batter since April 9th. If he's righting the ship, he'll get the job back, whether Henderson has an 0.90 ERA or not. The only good news for Henderson owners (at least, the ones who don't have Axford too) is that he's pitched well enough to be worth keeping around.

Red Sox

Joel Hanrahan is starting his rehab assignment and is eligible to come off the DL on Monday. The Sox traded for him to be their closer. Andrew Bailey has filled in and done a great job. The Sox also traded for Bailey to be their closer. Management hasn't said anything definitive, other than it might be a fight for the job. So, I guess this counts as bad news for owners of both. Bailey has pitched better this year, but it's probably fair to say than Hanrahan will have to be bad not to win his job back. That's certainly possible. Whatever ultimately happens, expect Bailey to keep the job for several days while Hanrahan is allowed to get back in the swing of things.

Diamondbacks

J.J. Putz has gotten himself in enough trouble that his manager had to reassure everyone that he was "still the closer." Things got bad enough that Matt Reynolds saved two games last week, one in relief of Putz, the other in relief of David Hernandez. This one is worth keeping an eye on, though Putz managed his fourth save on Thursday to go with the three he's blown. So far, there's no change, and Putz should have a bit more leash left; the veteran closer has proved himself over the years to the point where Arizona probably won't demote him for a bad couple weeks. If his struggles get worse, Reynolds, Hernandez, and Heath Bell may all get a crack at the job.

Royals

Nothing but good news for Greg Holland owners, as he's pitched his ERA all the way down to 5.14 with five consecutive scoreless outings. In fact, all the runs he's given up this year came in one inning, pitched across two horrific days. He's got 14 strikeouts in his seven innings pitched and seems to have gotten away from any controversy over his bullpen role. Making things easier for him, Kelvin Herrera has had two disastrous outings and actually pushed his ERA above Holland's. Why all this talk about ERA, you wonder, in this age of better statistical analysis? Closing is about results, not process, and good results keep jobs.

Add-Vice

Not as easy a week for speculative pickups, as most of the pitchers involved will be already owned. If Valverde remains available, he's by far the best pickup (unless Holland or Putz are somehow on the waiver wire). Axford is actually less owned than Valverde (just 51% of Yahoo! leagues), so it's a good time to get him. Marmol is on a hot streak and has at least a share of the closing job; he should be owned in more than just 39% of Yahoo! leagues. Leave Gregg and the others alone. Bailey is owned in three-quarters of leagues, and he's worth keeping as a setup man if he continues to pitch as he has. 

Louie, Louie

Luis Jimenez

Jimenez has been swinging a hot bat and scoring a lot of runs for the Los Angeles Orange County Angels of Anaheim San Diego.  Alberto Callaspo could return from the DL as soon as this weekend, but Jimenez could absolutely replace him at third by the end of the season. Last year Jimenez hit  .309/.334/.495 at Triple-A (which is actually lower than his 5-year minor league average of .302/.338/.518), with had 16 HRs and 17 steals in 122 games.  He’s a plus defender and has shown good power at every level of the minors.  Right now he’s batting two spots in front of Trout - imagine what he could do in that lineup batting after Trumbo.  Mike Scoscia has done stranger things in his day (like consistently benching Napoli), and he loves good defenders, so I can see Jimenez finding his way into more playing time as the season progresses.  He’s worth taking a flyer on in every league - especially if you drafted Moustakas at 3B, who looks like he couldn’t even hit Brett Myers’ wife (sorry, couldn't help it).

Burgos and Fries

Hiram Burgos

Even though his name sounds more like a Rabbi than a big leaguer, Burgos had an outstanding 2012 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, to the tune of a 1.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 in 171 IP. That’s a lot of innings for a minor leaguer, and with Chris Narveson hitting the DL, Burgos could be in line to replace him permanently in the rotation. He pitched well against the Cubs in his debut, allowing only one earned run in five innings and no walks (with only one strikeout, though). In deep leagues or NL-only leagues, Burgos is definitely worth picking up because of his 2012 performance alone.

Pretty Bone

Jonathan Pettibone

John Lannan could miss 6 - 8 weeks, and Pettibone looks stellar in his debut against the Bucs, giving up 2 ER over 5 1/3 IP and 6 K’s and no free passes. At 6”5’, Pettibone looks intimidating on the mound, but is actually more of a groundball pitcher than a flamethrower. Charlie Manuel hasn’t committed to using Pettibone exclusively in Lannan’s absence, but if he stays consistent it will be hard to justify replacing him. In daily leagues, Pettibone is worth grabbing for his matchup at Citi Field this weekend, and in other leagues might worth a stash as well. Plus he’s got an awesome name, so there’s that.

Deep-Seated Issues

Carlos Martinez

The Cardinals bullpen is a disaster. Motte is out, Boggs has been mindbogglingly bad, Rosenthal’s year has been anything but rosy, and the Cards were forced to go with Edward “6 Career Saves in 382 Innings” Mujica. Yes, Mujica has looked pretty good thus far, but it seems like only a matter of time before he fails. That’s where Carlos Martinez comes in. He’s worked as a starter so far in his minor league career, but there are rumors out there that he will be called up to the bullpen, and definitely worth taking a flyer on in deep leagues if you’re hurting for saves. With an upper-90’s fastball and a nasty curveball, Martinez actually profiles better as a reliever than a starter.

Better Lucky Than Good

Patrick Corbin

He’s not a rookie, but Corbin is relatively unheralded so I’m including him becaues he is an absolute must-add in all leagues. Many assumed that Tyler Skaggs or Randall Delgado would get the first crack at the 5th starter job in Arizona this year, but it’s been the consistent-if-slightly-unexciting Corbin that’s taken the job and ran with it. Corbin has been extraordinarily lucky with over a 90% strand rate through 19 innings this year, but it still takes a confident, skilled starter to shut down the Brewers, Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants in his first 4 games of 2013. 

Buy High

Shelby Miller

Miller is living up to the hype, and boasts a ridiculous 2.16 ERA, 9.36 K/9, and 0.88 WHIP on the season. This youngster is the real deal. In redraft leagues I’d buy now before his value skyrockets ever further, and in keeper leagues I’d consider going so far as to consider giving up a Cliff Lee-type. That’s how good this kid is. It’s Miller time!

They're Just Too Good To Be True: Welington Castillo.  Every fantasy owner dreams of drafting a stopgap second catcher in the 20th round or later and then watching in joy as that roster filler delivers a breakout season.  Castillo isn't exactly a total diamond in the rough --- he had some strong minor league numbers and hit .265/.337/.418 in 190 PA in 2012, but obviously, nobody quite expected his current production.  Though 57 PA in this young season, Castillo is hitting .352/.375/.463 and I probably just need to stop right there and point out that small gap between Castillo's average and OBP.  He has taken exactly zero walks and as his .111 ISO suggests, he isn't showing much pop. 

If you're a Castillo owner in a single-catcher roster format, don't get any nutty ideas about trading your (presumably better) starter since you'll be left holding the bag when Castillo comes back to earth.  Keep hiim as your backup or, even better, see if you can swap him to a less-informed manager who doesn't read this column is dazzled by a high batting average.  If you have two starting catchers in your format, I'd also advise seeing if you can sell high and move Castillo for a more proven backstop.

Full disclosure: I may be biased against Castillo simply because of his first name.  I grew up in London, Ontario, where Wellington Road is one of our major streets.  As such, Castillo's lack of a second "L" really sticks in my craw....yeah, this is some REALLY insightful fantasy analysis. 

Don't Take Your Eyes Off Of Them: These are the players whose peripherals match their production, for better or for worse.  Yes, I realize this concept doesn't exactly match the category title but that's the price I pay for trying to shoehorn a Frankie Valli song into a fantasy baseball column. 

Anyway, my "for better" guy this week is Dexter Fowler.  Much has been made about Fowler's red-hot start to the 2013 season and while I don't think he'll continue his current power pace and end up with 50+ homers, there are some intriguing indications that Fowler actually hasn't yet hit his overall stride.  Fowler's production has been almost entirely based around his home runs --- he's hitting .250, his OBP is .348, his BABIP is a shockingly low .211 and his line-drive percentange stands at 20%, down from 27.2% in 2012.  Now, it's worth noting that Fowler posted career-highs in all these categories last year, including a whopping .390 BABIP, so it's quite possible that he's just balancing out a bit.  That said, if Fowler gets the BABIP up to around the usual .300 mark, he'll be an even better hitting force.  

There are two ways to read this, of course.  The negative spin would be that Fowler is actually underperforming, and we're just not seeing it since we're all dazzled by the homers.  I'm not sure this is necessarily the case given the BABIP and the fact that Fowler plays at Coors Field, where logical statistical analysis goes to die.  If you're saying Fowler will be a fantasy liability once his power dips, my counter would be that his power probably won't dip that much given his 81 home games in the thin air.  At worst, Fowler is a must-start every time the Rockies play at home.  At best, he's on pace for a season that will cement him as a fantasy regular, so don't go trading Fowler quite yet thinking he's just an early-season wonder.  

On the flip side of Fowler is Victor Martinez, whose awful start to the season is borne out by the numbers.  V-Mart has only a .190 BABIP and his walk and strikeout rates are roughly around his career norms, but in terms of power, Martinez makes Welington Castillo look like Johnny Bench.  Martinez has just one extra-base hit in 77 PA and his ISO is just .015.  There's a time for "it's early" and "he's having bad luck" and there's also a time for realizing that this is a 34-year-old who is trying to return from a torn ACL that cost him an entire season.  Despite Martinez's strong track record, I would be wary about giving him much more time to prove himself.  If he isn't looking like the old V-Mart after a few more weeks, it's time to bench or even cut him outright.

Hold Them (On Your Roster) So Much: Vance Worley.  The Twins right-hander drew some sleeper buzz during this spring's fantasy drafts as a 25-year-old live arm who was going from hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park to pitcher-friendly Target Field.  Thus far, however, the Vance Vance Revolution has yet to take place.  Worley owners no doubt took a big gulp upon seeing his 7.11 ERA through four starts (rim shot) and dropped him en masse, which is why he is owned in just 3% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.  If you're in an auction league and still have Worley around since he's harder to drop, take heart, since he isn't likely to continue being a drain your pitching numbers for much longer. 

While Worley has the 7.11 ERA, his advanced metrics are much better --- he owns a 3.28 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, and a 4.31 SIERA.  These admittedly aren't great numbers themselves, especially since Worley won't provide big strikeout totals given his career 7.6 K/9.  That said, one metric that is swinging his way is his 0.47 HR/9, which would be a career-best for Worley and likely a direct benefit from the move to Minnesota.  Worley owns the single biggest BABIP (.403) of any pitcher in baseball, so once those balls stop dropping in for hits, Worley's ability to keep the ball in the park would translate to much better results.  The light bulb might've flicked on already given that Worley pitched very well against the White Sox in his most recent start. 

Mark Buehrle (Yahoo: 21% | ESPN:  6%) and J.A. Happ (Yahoo: 13% | ESPN: 5%) -- Buehrle faces the Yankees on Thursday, and Happ gets the nod on Saturday. Both will face a Yankees lineup that's been absolutely abysmal versus left-handed pitching. As a team, the "Bombers" (I have to use that term facetiously given the context) have hit .190/.262/.299 against lefties. Buehrle faced them last week and whiffed seven hitters with one run allowed in seven innings. Happ, who's actually a strikeout pitcher unlike Buehrle, could break double-digit Ks as they flail away.

Edwin Jackson (Yahoo: 44% | ESPN: 37%) and Carlos Villanueva (Yahoo: 30% | ESPN: 28%) -- Both righties are going to take on the Marlins this week, with Jackson going on Thursday and Villanueva getting the nod on Sunday. We all know the Marlins can't hit, but they've at least held their own against left-handed pitching (if ranking 20th with a .645 OPS is considered "holding your own," anyway). Against right-handers, the Fish are batting an impossibly bad .199/.250/.255. Jackson and Villanueva should both turn in quality starts (and likely considerably better) with strong K numbers against that anemic offense. Scott Feldman will face the Marlins as well, but he's considerably less talented than the first two names here and has shown command issues thus far. He's a riskier stream but should be available in just about any format short of "Chicago players only."

Wade LeBlanc (Yahoo: 1% | ESPN: 0%) -- LeBlanc is probably a better stream for deeper mixed leagues than standard 12-team or shallower, but his FIP (3.98) is more than two runs better than his ERA (6.27), and he's pitched right around that level for the past two seasons (4.04 FIP in '11; 3.98 in '10). The Cubs are hitting .196/.265/.311 against lefties. LeBlanc does carry a reverse-platoon split, but that actually bodes well for him as nearly all of the Cubs starters are right-handed hitters. It's that tired old "reverse-platoon lefty against a bunch of righties who can't hit lefties" matchup that you hear about ad nauseum.

Gavin Floyd (Yahoo: 6% | ESPN: 3%) -- Floyd's 4.98 ERA isn't exactly dazzling, but his 3.99 FIP and 3.22 xFIP are considerably stronger. He also faces a Rays team that ranks 25th in OPS against right-handed pitching. Floyd has been plagued by homers but the Rays are a middle-of-the-pack team in long balls versus righties, and no team has hit line drives at a lower clip against righties than Tampa Bay's meager 15.6 percent. Floyd has 24 Ks in 21 2/3 innings this season as well, so he can contribute in multiple facets.

David DeJesus (Yahoo: 3% | ESPN: 2%) -- DeJesus is hitting .405/.500/.811 over his past 10 games with three homers. He's starting every game versus righties, and he'll have a run of pretty underwhelming righties coming up in the form of Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia and Ricky Nolasco.

Jesus Montero (Yahoo: 50% | ESPN: 35%) -- Montero finally hit his first homer last night, and he'll face Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton and Jason Vargas in the Thursday-Sunday series with the Angels. The Halos are the most homer-prone team in baseball, and while manager Eric Wedge has limited Montero's playing time (because getting Kelly Shoppach ABs is crucial for the Mariners' long-term outlook or something) hopefully Monday's bomb gets him in the lineup more. If Kendrys Morales is available in your league he's probably the preferred Mariners add. If you're feeling lucky, slightly delusional, just plain bored or all three... you can roll the dice on Justin Smoak as well, but the power has just never developed for him.

Jeff Baker (0% in both Yahoo and ESPN) -- Baker's not owned because Baker doesn't do a whole lot for fantasy players except mash left-handed pitching. Luckily, he's facing a pair of low-strikeout lefties in Pedro Hernandez and Scott Diamond in the Rangers' upcoming series with the Twins. Baker is 4-for-12 with a homer in four starts against lefties this season, and for his career he's triple-slashed .297/.347/.502 against them. He's unlikely to be pinch-hit for late in a game either, as Minnesota's closer Glen Perkins is of the left-handed variety.

With only three weeks in the books, it's still a tad early to draw any reasonable conclusions as to which team is the favorite to win the RotoAuthority League. If we take a look at the standings through Sunday, though, it's interesting that three teams have jumped ahead of the pack:

1. Men With Wood 88.5
2. Smell the Glove 84.5
3. Yu at the Animal Zoo 80
4. Gramma Nutt Crushers 69.5
5. Forty 2 Twenty 4 64.5
6. Reedy 64.5
7. A Century of Misery 63.5
8. Say It Ain't So Cano 60.5
9. UP 56.5
10. Philly Cheez 56
11. E-Z Sliders 54
12. Brewsterville Bruins 38

As you can see, there's a 10-point gap between the top three and rest of the league. Let's take a closer look at how each of these squads has risen to the top. As a reminder, the RotoAuthority League utilizes a straight draft as opposed to an auction. This makes it a little tougher to determine the most profitable players relative to draft position. Thanks to the fine work by Bill Macey of BaseballHQ, however, we can convert ADP values into equivalent auction values. In this way, we can see not simply the best players thus far but which ones have been the best bang for the buck.

Men With Wood

In my draft recap for the league, I indicated that if I were forced to pick a favorite strictly based off the draft, Men With Wood would be my choice. Now this may just be a coincidence, but the fact remains that this roster looked solid at the time and still does. Men With Wood has benefited tremendously from three draft picks so far. Further proof that there's often wisdom in the masses, Josh Rutledge and Todd Frazier have more than lived up to their pre-season hype. A twelfth round draft pick, Rutledge is currently performing at a 5th round level. Even more impressively, Men With Wood came right back in Round 13 pick with Frazier, who has performed as a 2nd rounder to date. Meanwhile, in Round 19 Men With Wood somehow managed to snag A.J. Burnett, who has the 4th best SIERA  among qualified starting pitchers at 2.37. More so than anything else, however, this owner has outmanaged the rest of the league in free agent acquisitions. From John Buck and Travis Hafner to Daniel Nava and Gerardo Parra, Men With Wood has been able to grab several hitters who have produced at a $10 level at minimum. Long story short, Men With Wood isn't going anywhere.

Smell the Glove

In my draft recap I also described a positive outlook for the roster run by the Commissioner of the league, Tim Dierkes.  Three draft picks stand out as the leading contributor toward the success of Smell the Glove thus far. First of all, Tim wasn't afraid to select the maddeningly inconsistent Alex Rios in Round 7. All Rios has done so far is contribute significantly in all five Roto categories. Last year's bounceback campaign isn't looking so strange anynore. In addition to Rios, Dierkes made two of the best handful of picks with endgame selections of Dexter Fowler in Round 17 and Jed Lowrie in Round 23. Fowler and Lowrie are each playing at roughly a $30 level on a combined investment that equates to $5 in auction. With all of these offensive bargains, it's not surprising that Smell the Glove currently has the most hitting points. Sure, the season is young, but these draft day bargains may prove to vault Dierkes back in the money after a couple of down seasons.

Yu at the Animal Zoo

Finally, we have our owner who cleverly chose to wait until after the draft (and after he had Yu Darvish on his roster) to pick a name. I said in my draft recap that this owner had the top staff in the league, and the early results certainly aren't changing my mind. In fact, Yu at the Animal Zoo remarkably leads four of the five pitching categories at this point. Unlike Men With Wood and Smell the Glove, though, I actually don't see as many truly breakout performances on this roster. Sure, Round 7 selection Wilin Rosario and Round 17 pick Starling Marte are each providing over $10 in profit on their modest investments. Beyond that pair, however, this roster is simply filled with reliable players who are performing as they should. Led by top overall selection Miguel Cabrera and aces Felix Hernandez and Darvish, this team looks rock solid on paper. The scary thing for the rest of us is that last year's AL Cy Young Award winner David Price is off to a rough start, yet this owner is still running away with the pitching points. Overall then, this roster might just need an average number of hitting points to finish in the money.