C - Brian McCann (4)
1B - Derrek Lee (6)
2B - Ian Kinsler (2)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (3)
3B - Aramis Ramirez (5)
OF - Ryan Braun (1)
OF - Andrew McCutchen (7)
OF - Torii Hunter (8)
DH - Vladimir Guerrero (12)
P - Ubaldo Jimenez (9)
P - Ricky Nolasco (10)
P - Matt Garza (11)
P - Kevin Slowey (14)
P - Rafael Soriano (13)
Bn - Chad Qualls (15)
Bn - Jonathan Sanchez (16)
Bn - Kerry Wood (17)
Bn - Matt Capps (18)

Soriano is in another contract year, so he might hold it together.  But he does have a notable injury history, including ulnar nerve surgery transposition in August of '08.  You'll want to be aware of his backups.

Basically, J.P. Howell is the one you want.  He saved 17 last year with a 10.7 K/9, though he walked 4.5 per nine.  Technically, he blew 8 saves in 25 tries, but the majority of those were not typical save situations.

After Howell it's Grant Balfour or Dan Wheeler.  Balfour is more in the classic closer mold, and I'd take him assuming he's going well.

Lewis spent the last two years in Japan, and he was awesome there.  His 2009 performance: 2.96 ERA, 9.49 K/9, and a 0.7 BB/9.  That's a 9.79 K/BB ratio.  In 2008 it was a 2.68 ERA, 9.25 K/9, 1.37 BB/9, and a 6.78 K/BB.

ESPN's Tim Kurkjian has a great article explaining Lewis' transformation in Japan.  He gained a new mindset, delivery, and cutter in his time there, and this winter a dozen MLB teams were dialing up his agent.  It's not common for an American player to return from Japan and get $5MM.  Lewis is still only 30 years old.

How do the projection systems feel about Lewis?

• CHONE: 3.99 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.05 BB/9
• ZiPS: 4.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.60 BB/9
• PECOTA: 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.04 K/9, 2.36 BB/9
• HQ: 4.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.71 K/9, 3.19 BB/9

Quite a range, with two of the four projection systems suggesting Lewis could be quite valuable in any league.  As is the case with most mixed league sleepers, you've got little to lose.

TUESDAY: Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is being drafted at 72.11, the 7th round in a 12-team mixed league.  I typically don't take closers that early, but I wouldn't begrudge you for jumping on a legendary stopper projected for excellent ratios and 40 saves.

That said, Mo is 40, and at some point someone else will get a crack at closing for the Yankees.  If Rivera gets hurt, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain might be candidates to step in (whoever is not in the rotation).  In 2009 Hughes posted a 1.40 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 51.3 relief innings.  He's going about 100 picks later than Chamberlain, too.

It was a lost season for lefty Damaso Marte, but he could also be in the mix to close games in Rivera's absence, depending on matchups.  Strikeout artist David Robertson could be the pen's dark horse if injuries to others run rampant.

But Liriano's elbow started barking in August of '06, and by November he was on the table for Tommy John surgery. 

The Twins had Liriano up for three ugly starts in April of '08, but then had him start his next 20 in the minors.  He pitched well but the Twins waited until August 3rd to recall him, causing some to suggest the team was trying to avoid Super Two status.  Liriano was sharp over those final two months - 2.74 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.  Warnings signs we might've missed: his fastball velocity hadn't returned, and he faced terrible offenses in 7 of the 11 starts.

Fantasy touts, myself included, figured Liriano was ready to return contribute in 2009, even if he didn't return to greatness.  I liked him for a sub-4.00 ERA, a sub-1.30 WHIP, and plenty of Ks.  He was being drafted in the 6th round - typically too rich for my blood, but not indefensible.  Liriano was a huge bust though - 5.80 ERA, tons of walks, hits, and home runs, and a 91.7 mph average fastball.  David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says Liriano wasn't as bad as his numbers, but his stuff was still way off.

Here in 2010, Liriano is being drafted at 280.80 - the 24th round in a 12-team mixed league.  At present, he's a risk-free choice.  You're not risking much even if he moves up in draft position over the next couple months.  And he will move up - Liriano dazzled in the Dominican Winter League and figures to do the same in Spring Training. He says his velocity, location, and slider are back and he feels like he did in '06.  Take him in the 15th round or later and see if the statement holds up.

What were your biggest mistakes in 2009?

Patrick DiCaprio of Fantasy Pros 911 has our answers, and I've love you hear yours in the comments.

If you're searching for a chink in the armor after a 1.85 ERA season, check out Papelbon's 3.2 BB/9.  It was his worst walk rate since his rookie year, and it pushed his WHIP all the way up to 1.15.  He tinkered with his delivery early in the season, so that might've caused the extra walks in the first half.  Regardless, we're nit-picking.

In the seemingly unlikely event Papelbon misses time with an injury, who's next in line?  Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez were used in the highest-leverage situations last year.  Ramirez's peripherals were shaky, however.  Hard-throwing sophomore Daniel Bard could be the guy, assuming he's in the midst of a strong season.

Dark horses?  Scott Atchison dominated out of the Hanshin Tigers' bullpen last year.  Boof Bonser had interesting peripherals in '08 out of the Twins' pen, but that was before shoulder surgery.

You shouldn't worry about Papelbon's backup unless you're really digging for saves in a deep AL-only league.  Bard is the current favorite, but keep an eye on Atchison.

This post is not to debate Anderson's value specifically, though I am projecting a 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts in 185 innings for a $16.26 value.  That'd put him in the ballpark of the projected fantasy value of Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, A.J. Burnett, and Roy Oswalt.

My suggestion is that players often provide profit despite the hype.  From March 2009 fantasy drafts, consider Matt Kemp (4th round), Mike Napoli (14th round), Joey Votto (7th round), Nelson Cruz (11th round), Jayson Werth (12th round), Adam Jones (16th round), Javier Vazquez (12th round), Zack Greinke (13th round), Scott Baker (19th round), and Josh Johnson (13th round).  Tim Lincecum, drafted around the 10th before the '08 season, also comes to mind.

Yes, I cherry-picked those, and you could easily point to guys like Chris Davis and Matt Wieters who went way, way too early and did not pay off at all.  Sometimes the hype machine does go overboard - in hindsight, the 6th round for Davis was absurd.  But the 10th or 11th round for Anderson is perfectly reasonable.  You could make a legitimate case for taking him over John Lackey and Jair Jurrjens in a similar spot. 

Certain players like Anderson, Tommy Hanson, and Carlos Gonzalez will be on every sleeper list this fantasy season, mine included.  This may push their average draft position lower than you'd like, but I sure don't regret having Cruz and Werth on a bunch of my teams last year. 

Gonzalez logged a career-high 74.3 innings in '09 despite back stiffness and elbow tendinitis.  He had Tommy John surgery on that elbow in June of '07.  If he hits the DL, the Orioles could turn back to Jim Johnson (he of the 5.5 career K/9).  Koji Uehara, on the hook for $5MM, is another possibility.  He's got great command and his 6.5 K/9 would presumably play up with a return to the pen.  However, his season ended in June with an elbow strain.

Kam Mickolio, who averages about 95 on his fastball, could be the pen's sleeper.  He whiffed 66 in 57.3 innings between Triple A and the bigs last year.  He did deal with biceps inflammation, however.

Was Wright truly a bust?  According to ESPN's Player Rater he ranked 7th among third basemen and 64 among all players.  Obviously he was a letdown in the power categories, but if you blame this pick for losing your league you're just making excuses. 

More importantly, what can we expect from Wright in 2010?  You may recall that Wright was struck in the head by a Matt Cain fastball on August 15th, an injury that he admitted remained in the back of his head a month later.  Wright told Newsday's Anthony Rieber, "You see a ball that kind of comes up and in, it makes you flinch a little more than normal."  The symptoms from that injury caused Wright to dip to 535 ABs in '09, so we'll assume he jumps back to his typical 600.  As for the mental aspect, we can only guess whether the time off will straighten him out.  Wright had his worst month of the season after returning from the beaning in September.

Projection systems don't know about the mental side of the Cain beaning.  They also can't tell us whether moving to Citi Field got into Wright's head.  Assuming 600 ABs, here are three projected lines:

• Baseball HQ: .295-20-96-103-23
• Bill James:  .302-23-99-100-24
• CHONE: .305-24-104-102-21

Very similar results...they're all just penalizing him for '09 by predicting fewer than 25 HRs.  But more simply, Wright averaged 29 HRs in the four seasons prior.  A return to 30 HR is entirely within reach for the 27-year-old.  Any logical forecaster is going to say Wright's power will return and his strikeouts will come back down in 2010.

On the other hand, Citi Field isn't going anywhere.  Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker Online has suggested Wright lost nine home runs to the new park in 2009.  If he'd hit 19 bombs and driven in 85, it would've been easier to write off '09 as a blip.

We've learned that Wright is likely to bounce back to some extent, though he's riskier than ever.  In my tentative batter rankings, Wright is 17th.  I am not one to spring for a pitcher in the first few rounds, so my question is how many hitters I'd rather take than Wright who will not be there for a subsequent pick.  Though my early rankings have 16 hitters above Wright, Holliday, Reyes, and McCann may be available with your following pick.  There are nine players - Pujols, Hanley, Braun, A-Rod, Utley, Kemp, Howard, Cabrera, and Fielder - I'd have to take before Wright.  Beyond that, I'm not convinced that Teixeira, Longoria, Lincecum, Mauer, Kinsler, and Crawford need to go before Wright.

There's my current debate - Teixeira, Longoria, Lincecum, Mauer, Crawford, and Kinsler vs. Wright.  One point in Wright's favor is that he's projected to give balance - above-average contributions in all five categories.  Drafting exactly 12th (in a 12-team league) might make the decision easier, as you could take Wright and one of the six back-to-back.