The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

It’s a bit surprising to see Robinson Cano go 6th overall, passing up the typical boppers like Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder but if you really want Robinson Cano on your team and you’re drafting in the 6 hole, you pretty much have to take him there because he’s not going to last until your next pick. It is interesting to note that in passing up the typical first round first basemen, the team drafting Cano wound up with Ryan Howard, selected in the 10th round (142 ADP) who will likely miss at least a month of action, which leaves him with either Carlos Lee or Aubrey Huff at first for some time. Howard very well could return and rake, so that could certainly work out — I’m merely pointing out the consequences. Feel free to discuss the “would you rather have X 2B and Y 1B” scenarios in the comment section.

Ian Kinsler slips a few slots in lieu of four outfielders taken ahead of him in the third round, and team “32″ winds up with a pretty nice find at 28. Kinsler’s health is frequently in question as he’s often dinged up, but he managed over 700 plate appearances in 2011 and rewarded owners with some eye-popping counting stats. There will be plenty who avoid him due to the .255 batting average, but you likely know it was wrapped up in particularly rotten batted ball luck and should he regress to career norms there, he’ll be back to .275-.280. In traditional 5×5 Roto leagues – if Kinsler stays on the field – he’s probably the most valuable second basemen. He’s just not the safest.

I actually happen to think the Dan Uggla pick was a very good one – and perhaps it’s just because I don’t frequently draft for the batting average. A second baseman that could almost sleep-walk into 30 home runs, 90 RBI, and 90 runs scored is someone I’d like on my squad. Team “Lucky Strikes” had a pretty nice first five picks, going Justin Upton, Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro, Brett Lawrie, and Dan Uggla — ticking off SS, 3B, and 2B rather judiciously.

The next batch of second basemen all fall pretty much within range of their expected slot save for perhaps Brandon Phillips – but here’s where I get kind of lost in the fog of decent contributors at second. I’m not saying they’re all the same, but check out Bill James projections (and no, I’m not saying Bill James is spot on here, but it helps illustrate a point) for the 4th-10th selected 2B (sans Uggla):

You can quibble a bit with an extra HR or fewer SB here or there, but this is a pretty strikingly similar group. There are of course the questions of the health of Weeks and Utley, the issue of Kipnis and youth, and perhaps the possibility that Zobrist sees his batting average dip again into the abyss. But if you buy into (a sizable if, I’ll admit) the projections – after the top three are selected, you have a bit of an opportunity to wait around on second basemen and fill other needs until, say, one or two are left — and then you should probably make your move. If you patently can’t stand Howie Kendrick or if you don’t want to worry about Utley’s balky knee, then come up with your own plan – but this is just one of those points in the draft that I think creates a unique situation where you do a mid-draft punt. A pooch kick, maybe? Anyway, you get the point.

Lastly, if you’re really well positioned at batting average, Espinosa is a pretty nice play as he’s pretty likely to hit 20+ home runs and might even push 20 stolen bases, but I’d prefer him more in the MDC range of 149 than having to take him in the 11th round. I’m not sure there’s much in the way of promise that the batting average will top .250, and there’s the very real possibility that it could be .20 points lower, which would get to be a real drag.

Overall, I thought it was pretty interesting that four of the 12 teams pretty much took a “to hell with second base” approach, one taking Neil Walker in the 13th, Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson (back to back) in the 17th and 18th, Jose Altuve in the 23rd, and ahem, Gordon Beckham in the 26th — all ostensibly as starters (with game-time decisions on Hill/Johnson no doubt). I’m not saying it’s good nor bad — just an interesting development that I’m going to keep an eye on in subsequent mocks.

Holland is more-or-less a classic two pitch reliever, but he relies more on his slider than most of his peers. According to his Brooks Baseball player card, he threw his slider on 42% of his pitches last year compared to the 50% rate that he threw his fastball, which is a rather high slider to fastball ratio. In generating an astonishing 30% whiff rate even with such a high frequency, his PITCHf/x slider value of 12.2 ranked second in the league behind only Mike Adams.

Not surprisingly, Holland went to his slider much more frequently than his fastball in one and two strike counts. Getting ahead with his high velocity fastball then moving to the top notch slider provided great dividends for Holland and any fantasy owners last year. His contact percentage was third to only Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, the top two strikeout arms in the league.

While Holland’s first 18.2 inning Major League stint in 2010 was not quite as impressive, he still kept the strikeouts at a nearly identical level. Holland toned his walks down last season, though his walk per nine ratio of 2.85 was the lowest it has ever been at any level. That leads reason to believe it will rise, but Holland should still remain a very productive reliever even with an uptick in walks. Another positive in Holland’s favor is that he performed better against left-handers than right-handers — he sported a 1.33 FIP against lefties and a 2.85 FIP against righties. That may not continue at the same rate, but success against left-handers at that level is a good sign for the future.

A 2.21 FIP is hard for any pitcher to sustain, as is a 1.80 ERA. Even so, the stellar whiff rate and velocity of Holland’s slider should leave him in the upper echelon of relievers this season. Even though Joakim Soria is the mainstay in the closer role, Holland has ample value as the final reliever on a roster. In holds leagues, Holland should be one of the first relievers targeted.

There is always the chance that Soria is traded, which could push the 26-year-old into the ninth inning, where he would immediately be at worst a tier three closer. Even if Soria stays, adding 100 strikeouts with a WHIP around 1.00 and an ERA in the 2.00’s should stabilize a roto staff as well as any other non-closer could.

While Holland’s performance will likely regress due to the expected increase in walks and rise from last year’s .250 BABIP, he is still a good bet to finish the season in the upper echelon of middle relievers. With at least some possibility of becoming closer eventually, though he would have to battle with former closer Jonathan Broxton if Soria were traded, Holland is a good reliever to draft.

Jonny Venters, for example, had a 2010 campaign similar to Holland’s first full year, and although his walk rate rose and strikeout rate declined the following season, he remained very effective across the board. Holland may not exactly repeat his 2010 season, but he has the ability to consistently be a top level reliever.

I got the list of current closers from MLB Depth Charts a couple of days ago. Currently, several teams have shaky situations at closer, so this list will likely change before the beginning of Spring Training. I will try to give an update on it with the changes later.

To start off, here are the closers, their current team, throwing arm, FIP and TBF for LH and RH hitters. Additionally, I calculated the % of RHH the pitcher faced and the difference in their FIP. Only data from 2002 and later was used because the data at Fangraphs only goes back that far.

Notes

- I would put no stock in Juan Abreu‘s results. Thirty-four hitters is not enough of a sample size. Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Jordan Walden all have less than 500 TBF in their careers. Generally, it takes around 500 PA to get a good idea of a pitcher’s K% and BB%, which are major components of FIP. The trio’s results should be heavily regressed to the league mean. For the rest of the discussion, I will not be using these 5 in the calculations.

- The two left handed closers, Brian Fuentes and Matt Thornton, struggled against RHH compared to LHH. Teams have noticed this difference with Fuentes. Seventy percent of the hitters he faces are RHH. Because there are many good RHH that a team can use, I would stay away from any LH closers. Like the 5 pitchers with a small sample size, I will not use these 2 when doing futher calculations.

- Of the other 23 closers left, 5 have a split of over 1.00 FIP

Andrew Bailey: 1.57
Jason Motte: 1.38
Jose Valverde: 1.37
Rafael Betancourt: 1.35
Brandon League: 1.17

Historically, these 5 will be faced more RHH (~55%) than LHH. They have some ability to get out of inning if a couple of LHH string together some hits hits because of the number of RHH they will eventually face.

The two pitchers that I see red flags with are Andrew Bailey and Brandon League. Bailey will not have the luxury of working through a string of rough outings without getting pulled as the closer. The Red Sox will not have the patience with him losing games. The Yankees lineup especially could cause him a ton of issues since it is LH heavy. Brandon League‘s issue is that he is not a good reliever to begin with and the split just compounds the problem.

- Seven pitchers have a handedness split of less than 0.4

Jim Johnson: -0.35
Joakim Soria: -0.26
Jonathan Papelbon: -0.2
Heath Bell: -0.13
Mariano Rivera: -0.12
Frank Francisco: 0.14
Brian Wilson:0.17

This group of pitchers contain some of the best relievers in the game. A good reliever with a small split seems to be a good bet for long career as a closer.

Conclusion

Truthfully, I expected to find a little more useful data on handedness splits to help fantasy owners stay way from certain pitchers. I found only a few useful pieces of data (stay away from LH closers and Andrew Bailey), but that was about it. I think handedness splits may be more of a issue with setup men moving into the closers role. The setup men may be facing only a certain handedness of hitter to maximize their effectiveness. As a closer though, they will have to face whoever is due up in the 9th inning and the split will be exposed.

When the 2008 Brewers sent their top prospect at the time, Matt LaPorta, to the Indians as the key piece in the C.C. Sabathia trade, they were betting that LaPorta would fall into the second category and that Sabathia would help them make the playoffs. Credit to Doug Melvin and his staff, they were right on both accounts: The Brewers did make the playoffs in 2008 and LaPorta has struggled to get consistent playing time in the majors with Cleveland, even despite a youth movement within the Indians organization.

LaPorta hasn’t been a complete bust for the Indians, but his bat hasn’t at all played the way they had hoped it would and his defense isn’t good enough to cover the gap between expectation and reality. Add in the relatively high replacement level bar at first base and you have LaPorta’s career -1.4 WAR mark. His 2011 wasn’t awful, but .247/.299/.412 with 11 home runs just isn’t good enough from a starting first baseman and LaPorta isn’t going to fit anywhere else. His strikeout rate jumped from an already high 19.3 percent up to 22.6 percent, while his walk rate fell from just shy of 11 percent back down to just 6 percent. If he were walking more, perhaps he might have some value as a Carlos Pena-type player in OBP leagues, but he doesn’t even have as part of his arsenal.

There’s not much in LaPorta’s profile that excites me. He got off to a pretty good start in 2011, hitting .247/.337/.481 with four of his 11 home runs, but he was unable to sustain that success and regressed in every way as the season progressed. His minor league numbers are good, but he hasn’t gotten consistent playing time there since 2009, so it isn’t as though he’s splitting his time between being good in the minors and being ineffective in the majors. He has low BABIP, which could be a reason to hope that at least his batting average will come back and be a useful fantasy tool, but he hits flyballs at such a high rate — and relatively few line drives — that it’s hard to bank on his BABIP regressing back to near .300.

On nothing more than merit, LaPorta would be a last round flier for me, and even that depends on who else is left. But with the playing time issues he is facing, I just can’t even recommend him as a flier. The Indians brought in Casey Kotchman to man first base for the majority of their games, and they also have Carlos Santana as an occasional first baseman, which leaves LaPorta no higher than their third option. He could battle Travis Hafner for DH time, which is probably his easiest route to consistent playing time, though he’ll have to battle Russ Canzler for the spot. Canzler is younger and can play more positions, which almost certainly gives him a leg up for what amounts to a bench bat spot on the Indians’ roster.

Deep AL-only players may look at LaPorta out of duty, but reports coming out of Cleveland are that the Indians may send LaPorta back to Triple-A in order to keep him from stagnating on the big league bench, which would render him a wasted draft pick. There’s too much risk here for far too little reward irrespective of format. Let another league member dream on a former top prospect’s potential this season rather than having to hope and pray for LaPorta to suddenly find his power stroke in time to convince the Manny Acta and the rest of the Indians coaches that they should clear playing time for him once again.

I’d like to see an Ottoneu article highlighting the top 10 players whose value far exceeded their salary from 2011 and those players primed to do so in 2012.

Well, I can’t quite do that, but I am going to try to give you something (sort of) close (I think). I’ve taken the keeper data for points leagues and the 2011 point totals for each player to calculate the points/dollar for the average price at which each player was kept, and I am going to take a look at the best and worst values out there.

Three quick notes on methodology before we start. First, by the nature of the data, this is inherently backwards looking. It probably has some value for considering players in 2012, but this is really a look at players who most exceeded their value in 2011. But while a guy like Matt Moore looks unimpressive on a pts/$ basis in 2011, he wasn’t kept because of 2011, but because of the potential for 2012. The data doesn’t do him justice. Second, to account for this, I left out of the analysis anyone who had fewer than 200 plate appearances, fewer than 20 relief appearances or fewer than 10 starts (I used a thresh hold of Relief Appearances+2*Starts>20 for pitchers who appeared in both roles). This is to account for the issue described above. Finally, I focused on FanGraphs Points leagues because a) points are easy to calculate with and b) this is the most popular format.

With that in mind, here is a table that outlines the two most valuable position player keepers, based on pts/average salary, by price band.

It should be clear from the start why this had to be done by price band – not surprisingly a number of $3 players (remember, with the salary increases, $3 is the lowest possible price for a Major League player) led the way, by virtue of their low salary. Lee would be the 32nd highest rated player if we ignored salary bands, behind guys such as Jamey Carroll, Omar Infante, and the incomparable Yuniesky Betancourt. Alex Avila is your grand champion, the most productive player, dollar-for-dollar. That probably surprises no one – you would expect a breakout youngster with low expectations to top the charts. And I would say that there are few players I would rather keep at their price than Avila at $3. I did not, however, expect to see Kotchman so high, and I doubt he will fair as well in 2012.

Those two players in the >$5 price band are so interesting because of the expectations around them from past years. Morse is widely considered a breakout player who put up incredible numbers for a low investment; Lee is widely considered washed up. And yet, they put up pretty similar numbers, dollar for dollar. Would I rather have Morse in 2012? Absolutely. But while Morse was kept in 90% of leagues, Lee was cut in almost half. If people value him at less than $5, and you can grab him for a couple bucks next year, I bet you’ll like the outcome.

Kinsler and Kemp both managed to jump a price band, outperforming a lot of guys priced cheaper than them, but the king of that category is Miggy. At more than $49, he managed to be the second best value among players almost $15 cheaper. And his value will only go up with 3B eligibility. Pretty impressive.

Finally, on a pretty unimportant, but sort of odd note, how many of those bands have guys who play the same position? Morse/Lee, Young/Ramirez, Ellsbury/Granderson, Phillips/Kinsler, Kemp/Bautista, Fielder/Cabrera. Not sure it means anything – maybe someone else can find a rationale for this?

As for the pitchers:

Again, price bands are clearly important. This time Santana would have been 27th overall. You’ll also notice that the lower-band pitchers are all better values than their offensive counterparts. This is most likely a result of two things: first, pitching is more volatile so the opportunity for a guy to put up an unexpectedly big year is greater; and second, fantasy players know pitching is more volatile and tend to discount the prices accordingly, meaning that the pitchers who do succeed are better values, on average, balancing out the pitchers who flop.

This time the guys who leap-frog a price-band are Cain, Lee and Halladay. The latter two, though, benefit from a lack of competition – only 10 pitchers were kept at over $30 (including George Sherrill in one league, who I imagine is a placeholder, not a keeper), compared to 31 position players.

I was also surprised to see not one reliever make the cut. Considering how under-priced some relievers are, I figured there would be some great pt/$ values. But the highest value pitcher was Alfredo Aceves, at 169.7 pts/$, which ranked 32nd. The highest ranked full-time reliever (Aceves made four starts in 2012) was David Robertson, whose 160.8 pts/$ placed him 42nd overall.

Finally, for those curious the lowest value keepers were Brian Matusz (1.8 pts/$) and Jeff Mathis (7.4 pts/$). Mathis was only kept in one league, so if we limit ourselves to players kept at least twice, your low value position player is Hanley Ramirez, whose $47.77 salary netted just 409.6 points, for a ratio of 8.6.

Kotchman was a middling batting average (.259 from ’04-’10), no-power (.139 ISO) first baseman for the first seven seasons and 2,328 plate appearances of his career, but he showed some signs of life by hitting .306/.378/.422 in 563 plate appearances with the Rays last season. He still didn’t offer any power (just ten homers), but at least the batting average was there. Still just 28 years old, the Tribe is hoping that Kotchman will add some pop as he enters his peak years and deepen their lineup.

The improvement shown last year — .333 BABIP in 2011 after .277 from ’04-’07 — didn’t come with any significant change in Kotchman’s batted ball profile. Here’s the year-by-year graph…

He has started to hit more ground balls in recent years, but nothing too insane. It does help explain the lack of power, obviously. Point is, there’s no radical shift here that would explain the BABIP spike. Rather than spin our wheels and continue to look for something that might not be there, we have to acknowledge that the eye procedure Kotchman underwent last offseason may be the sole reason behind his improvement. A bacterial infection clouded his vision (“It was kind of like looking through a dirty windshield wiper,” he said), but he finally had it cleaned out last winter. Being able to see clearly is pretty important, and could have easily contributed more to his improvement than any other factor.

Now it’s entirely possible that Kotchman’s newfound success in 2011 is a sustainable thing, but the problem is that it still doesn’t make him all that valuable in fantasy. First baseman have to give you homers and run production, not batting average and little else. He could develop some more over-the-fence power going forward — Progressive Field is slightly friendly to lefties according to StatCorner’s park factors — but it would have to be quite a bit of power to become a factor on draft day. I like Kotchman best as a bench guy or injury replacement, not an everyday player. In ottoneu leagues, he’s a 700-800 point first baseman, which should run you less than five bucks.

Favorite Pick:  Trevor Cahill, SP  ARI — People have soured on him after a down year, but I like the move to the NL for him.  Yes, he is moving to a hitter’s park, but as a pitcher with a 53.3% ground ball rate who has seen his K/9 increase over the last three seasons, I don’t see the park factor affecting him too much.  He’ll also have a better defense playing behind him which should help his ERA (his FIP has also dropped in each of the three seasons) and the D-Backs are strong for the NL West, so wins won’t be as tough to come by as they were in Oakland.  Just 24 years old come March, I think he’s a steal here, almost 20 picks below his current ADP.

With the addition of Cahill, SJ Athletics of Oakland have one of my favorite starting pitching rotations in this draft.  Starting off with Verlander and Lincecum is one thing, but to complement them with Gio, Beachy, Marcum and now Cahill?  Oh baby!

Kadjilliounaire makes a nice grab of Adam Lind nearly 40 picks below his current ADP.  Lind may not have the average, but he’s got solid power.  This team has sound depth at first/corner infield.

I love taking the shot on Adam Dunn.  I do not love taking a shot on Johan Santana here.  A return to 35-40 bombs for one and just a bomb for the other.

Favorite Pick:  Kendrys Morales, 1B  LAA — The reports from his offseason workouts have be fantastic and it looks like Mark Trumbo, who was only just recently cleared for baseball activities (foot),  will be the odd man out this year despite such a solid debut in 2011.  With Votto, Hosmer and Youk already on the roster, there is no risk in taking Morales here, especially if he’s just depth and the upside is 30 home runs.

If Eno is right, then Boo-runs is going to be plenty happy with Lucas Duda here in the 18th round.  Good power development in the last couple of years, strong OBP numbers last season and bringing in the fences at Citi Field all working in his favor.  A little before his current ADP but with the love our  Mr. Sarris showers on him here, waiting another round probably wasn’t an option.

Kelly Johnson gets a bum rap sometimes.  Yes, the batting average has fluctuated between the acceptable and the disastrous, but 20-plus home runs over the last two seasons with double digit steals ain’t nothin’ to sneeze at for a second basemen.  I’ll hope that some more time in the AL helps drop that K-rate and be very happy with him as an 18th round middle infield selection.

Father Time is catching up, the average is dropping and the strikeouts are climbing, but good ol’ Torii Hunter can still bang 20 in a season.  Not sure if Pirate is going to be happy with him as his third outfielder, but he’s still got something left in the tank.

Sale and Harper are going to be two of the most watched/scrutinized players this year.  Love the upside, but will it show this season…?

It may sound lame, but I really have no clear cut favorite in this round.

I think Salvador Perez is a great late round sleeper.  Think younger version of Yadier Molina with the potential for slightly better power.  But I would like him even more if this were a deep keeper league and you had him for a buck.  Might need another year to start seeing it all click for him.

I’m hoping that Dexter Fowler finds a way to avoid the strikeouts and steal more bases this year.  So much speed potential yet no results thus far.

Huge potential for Roy Oswalt to be a steal this late…depending on where he signs though.

If Vernon Wells’ BABIP regresses back to the mean for him, then he’ll be a great bargain down here.  If it doesn’t, then he’ll drag you down in average more than his 20-odd home runs will help you.

Favorite Pick:  Addison Reed, RP  CHW — While Matt Thornton may start off with the closer’s job in Chicago, it’s just a short matter of time before Reed takes it away from him.  His double digit K/9 rate in the minors was no joke and neither is his 95 mph fastball.  The slider ain’t so bad neither!  Super low walk rates and I expect his SwStr% to be pretty sweet as well this year.  The Hammer did an outstanding job with his bullpen which will complement that high risk rotation he is sitting with.

Love Mike Trout’s upside, but at bats could be a concern here.  The Angels still have too much going on in the corners and DH spot for Trout to really break through unless he has a ridiculous spring.

Smada went a little light on the middle infield here, so while there are things about Zack Cozart that I like, I’m not sure if he’s going to be enough as the only guy backing up an injury risk like Jose Reyes and a relatively unproven Jason Kipnis.  Might have preferred Ian Desmond here.

Great job so far, guys!  Someone else will be picking up the tail end of your draft soon.

Links to the Analysis for the Previous Rounds

Rounds 1-4

Rounds 5-8

Rounds 9-12

Rounds 13-16

The first relative surprise already comes with the consensus top pitcher, as no starter was taken until pick 22. Justin Verlander has an ADP of 9, which I think is ridiculous, so props to the entire league for passing up on him until the end of the second round.

Lucky Strikes made the first two picks that represented big divergences from their ADPs when he selected rookies Matt Moore and Yu Darvish in the sixth and seventh rounds, respectively. I think both were too early, with Moore being wayyyy too early. Darvish at the end of the seventh round isn’t terrible, but still earlier than I would have chosen him. I really do like him though and think that in some leagues with lots of cautious owners, he may even be undervalued. Moore though now has to have a huge year just to break even, which will be difficult given a likely innings cap.

James Shields was a nice pick at the end of the eighth as the first real bargain compared to ADP. I have always been a Shields fan, but I still wouldn’t take him as early as that ADP. As such, I think the differential here overshoots how much profit potential there actually is.

Ricky Romero is overvalued at 87, so good job by the league to let him fall into the 11th round, where he is a solid choice. I love his skill set, but great fortune kept his ERA below 3.00 and has inflated his value.

Brandon Morrow at the end of the 13th, 26 picks ahead of his ADP. No surprise here from a league made up of stat nerds! To be honest, I am a little disappointed he is not going even cheaper considering his surface stats last year. Has he already begun to garner that sleeper/breakout hype once again that will cut into his profit potential? I hope not!

Nice grab by The Fighting Hellfish with Derek Holland in the middle of the 16th round, 19 picks after his ADP. He has solid all-around skills and is backed by an offense that should provide plenty of run support.

After Holland, the ADP becomes rather useless, so I will just name some guys I like picked late:

Francisco Liriano- Yeah, he could be worthless again, but it should be obvious if another crap season is on the way. Just watch the radar gun and check his velocity. If it has returned, continue staying the course, if not, big whoop, you spent your 337th (!!!) pick on him, and we know the ultimate upside.

Okay, so I only really care for one guy this late, the rest are your standard near replacement level options who do little to excite me.

Unlike predecessors in this space like Jose Tabata, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz, Valencia was healthy last year, which made him a marked aberration on a Twins team that saw nearly every other starter hit the disabled list at least once. He was the only Twin to play more than 140 games, and while that’s more useful to his actual squad than to most fantasy teams, having player who starts every day come hell or high water is always nice for fantasy owners as well. Disappointingly, Valencia didn’t add much value despite his ample opportunity, as he hit just .246/.294/.383 with 15 HR in over 600 PAs.

That line fits perfectly in the scouting report: it’s ok, but there isn’t any part of it that makes him standout. Oddly, however, it’s totally out of step with his actual minor league numbers. Prior to 2011, he had never had a full season OPS under .800 and never had a batting average under .285, so while some regression from his 2010 high was likely, dropping as low as he did was unexpected to say the least.

The most worrisome thing from his 2011, however, was not the overall cratering — I expect that 2012 will settle somewhere between his 2011 and 2010 levels — but rather the jump in his strikeout rate. Valencia saw his rate rise by 2.5 percent, which wouldn’t be so bad if his baseline wasn’t a little high to begin with. A 17 percent K-rate is survivable, but with it came an increased O-Swing rate and a decreased Contact rate; put more simply, Valencia was taking himself out of a lot of at-bats by swinging at pitches he couldn’t hit effectively and whiffing at the ones he could hit. Somewhat counter-intuitively, if the rest of the team had played better, I’d be more worried about Valencia playing poorly, but when the weight of the team was more or less on his shoulders for much of the season, there’s a non-zero chance that his issues stemmed from pressing. There’s a small chance this process repeats itself again next year, but he should have more help carrying the offense than he did in 2011, and that should allow him to relax more at the plate.

Valencia is a workable AL-only option, a nice pull for a CI or 3B spot late in the draft because of his RBI potential and virtually impregnable lock on playing time again in 2012. Really deep mixed league players may also see Valencia in a similar light, but shallower mixed leagues may find Valencia’s upside too limited, as he isn’t a good bet to hit .300 or more than 20 home runs. ZiPS projection for Valencia — .260/.305/.392 with 12 HR — strikes me as a little low, but that’s closer to Valencia’s likely numbers than a repeat of his excellent 2010.

The good news is that Valencia is pretty reliable as young third baseman go and he plays a position that’s getting shallower by the year, which is a bonus. Medium-deep mixed players may benefit most from grabbing Valencia late if they’ve taken on a lot of risk elsewhere in the draft. He may not be the most exciting player, but he’s been stable so far and he won’t stay in the depths of his slump forever.