FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers

Eno Sarris — Mon, 20 May 2013 17:38:37 +0000

We’re coming to an end of the series! We’ve pushed the consensus bullpen ranks over to the Bullpen Report guys, so they’ll have that to you soon. But for these four rankers, this episode is drawing to a halt. You can find all the updated ranks on your right, linked in that helpful little box.

The ranks, and the comments, have provided us with content for the coming weeks. Thank you for communicating which players are the most divisive. That allows us to know exactly which players we should be breaking down, RotoGraphs style. Add to that our timely coverage of players in the news, and we’re set.

Pitching changes on a dime though. While hitters give us their customary four or five plate appearances in a game, pitchers give us roughly five times that information every time they appear. So it’s fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one matchup. So we have to keep their careers in mind.

And that’s why some might scoff at the top-20 rankings for David Price and Matt Cain. That’s fair, especially in Price’s case, since he’s on the DL and his health outcome is yet to be written. But Matt Cain is doing virtually everything at a career level — except give up home runs. So either his pop-up skill (or home-run suppressing skill) was never real, or it was real and it just went away for a while. But if Cain’s command has completely left him, it’s not obvious in his walk rates. Or his velocity, really. Or his swinging strike or strikeout rates. So we’ll give him a little benefit of the doubt here.

Plenty of movement here, but there’s also an interesting group in the 50s that didn’t move enough to warrant a color change: Jeremy Hellickson, Marco Estrada, Trevor Cahill, C.J. Wilson, and Edwin Jackson. Their fates are all going in different directions — as well as their peripherals — and our rankers all had different opinions, but it average out to about the “meh” ranking they got before. Expect to see some of these pitchers broken down.

Who would you like to see more analysis about? Who sticks out for you?

With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto.

RG	Name	JZ	ES	MP	ZS
1	Clayton Kershaw	1	1	1	1
2	Justin Verlander	3	2	2	2
3	Felix Hernandez	4	4	3	3
4	Yu Darvish	2	3	4	8
5	Cliff Lee	5	5	5	4
6	Stephen Strasburg	11	6	6	5
7	CC Sabathia	13	8	8	11
8	Madison Bumgarner	7	10	15	9
9	Max Scherzer	6	9	9	17
10	Chris Sale	15	11	10	7
11	Adam Wainwright	14	13	13	6
12	James Shields	10	15	7	14
13	Cole Hamels	8	18	12	10
14	Zack Greinke	12	7	14	22
15	Mat Latos	16	14	17	13
16	Matt Harvey	27	12	18	12
17	David Price	9	21	23	21
18	Matt Cain	18	29	11	18
19	Gio Gonzalez	17	20	26	19
20	Matt Moore	22	17	20	27
21	Jeff Samardzija	19	16	30	24
22	Jake Peavy	25	22	19	31
23	Jon Lester	26	23	22	28
24	Johnny Cueto	36	24	29	15
25	Jordan Zimmermann	40	19	33	20
26	Jered Weaver	29	31	40	16
27	Anibal Sanchez	24	28	36	29
28	Homer Bailey	31	27	24	36
29	Doug Fister	42	32	27	25
30	A.J. Burnett	28	30	31	37
31	Mike Minor	33	26	54	23
32	Yovani Gallardo	20	36	34	48
33	R.A. Dickey	30	42	28	45
34	Derek Holland	37	37	45	30
35	Shelby Miller	76	25	21	33
36	Ian Kennedy	23	39	51	44
37	Ryan Dempster	38	40	43	40
38	Lance Lynn	44	34	49	38
39	Hyun-Jin Ryu	41	38	47	39
40	Hiroki Kuroda	49	45	38	34
41	Tommy Milone	35	44	39	51
42	Clay Buchholz	74	35	35	32
43	Tim Lincecum	21	60	25	70
44	Hisashi Iwakuma	53	52	46	26
45	Kris Medlen	63	33	41	41
46	Alex Cobb	72	43	32	35
47	Matt Garza	45	47	37	57
48	Dan Haren	34	54	52	54
49	Josh Johnson	62	48	44	46
50	Brandon Morrow	39	41	69	56
51	Justin Masterson	46	56	53	61
52	Jeremy Hellickson	68	50	57	42
53	Marco Estrada	50	73	42	52
54	Trevor Cahill	52	46	48	71
55	C.J. Wilson	43	55	58	63
56	Edwin Jackson	32	59	63	72
57	Ervin Santana	55	67	64	62
58	Francisco Liriano	58	62	55	73
59	Josh Beckett	48	71	65	67
60	Wade Miley	65	63	81	47
61	Wandy Rodriguez	59	61	66	75
62	Jarrod Parker	70	64	75	53
63	Tim Hudson	95	70	56	43
64	A.J. Griffin	84	57	74	49
65	Ubaldo Jimenez	56	58	78	79
66	Patrick Corbin	66	51	61	94
67	Kyle Lohse	57	77	89	50
68	Jon Niese	51	72	68	86
69	Andrew Cashner	117	49	50	66
70	Alexi Ogando	83	53	93	55
71	Phil Hughes	47	85	70	106
72	Brandon McCarthy	89	76	86	58
73	Paul Maholm	75	75	82	84
74	Felix Doubront	77	93	71	78
75	Jose Fernandez	123	66	67	65
76	Ryan Vogelsong	64	84	97	82
77	Bronson Arroyo	80	86	85	77
78	Zach McAllister	94	94	76	69
79	Chris Capuano	71	95	59	115
80	Wei-Yin Chen	91	80	72	99
81	Bud Norris	60	83	108	93
82	Dan Straily	86	97	79	85
83	Shaun Marcum	69	102	94	90
84	Colby Lewis	123	68	98	68
85	Travis Wood	73	79	83	123
86	Andy Pettitte	110	101	96	59
87	Brandon Beachy	123	65	121	60
88	Jose Quintana	121	81	73	95
89	Ricky Nolasco	54	114	99	105
90	Chris Tillman	98	78	103	101
91	Daniel Hudson	123	74	123	64
92	David Phelps	113	69	122	80
93	John Lackey	120	91	77	102
94	Jaime Garcia	61	87	123	120
95	Jason Hammel	85	88	95	123
96	Mike Leake	108	99	90	96
97	Kyle Kendrick	103	98	84	109
98	Ivan Nova	87	96	88	123
99	Jason Vargas	78	123	107	87
100	Brett Anderson	123	92	92	88
101	Tommy Hanson	67	123	113	92
102	Carlos Villanueva	96	119	123	74
103	James McDonald	81	109	100	123
104	Rick Porcello	101	123	80	111
105	Zack Wheeler	123	89	123	81
106	Ross Detwiler	123	90	87	117
107	Erasmo Ramirez	111	106	123	83
108	Mark Buehrle	97	121	114	91
109	Scott Feldman	112	103	101	107
110	Roberto Hernandez	123	118	62	123
111	Scott Diamond	123	123	105	76
112	Barry Zito	123	105	112	89
113	Matt Harrison	88	104	116	123
114	Joe Blanton	82	116	120	118
115	Julio Teheran	123	100	91	123
116	Drew Smyly	93	122	123	100
117	Jhoulys Chacin	123	111	104	104
118	Edinson Volquez	100	123	110	110
119	Scott Baker	92	108	123	123
120	Hector Santiago	123	82	123	123
121	Wade Davis	102	123	115	112
122	Jeff Locke	123	113	123	97
123	Jorge de la Rosa	123	112	123	98
124	Tony Cingrani	107	123	123	103
125	Lucas Harrell	123	123	102	114
126	Brett Myers	99	123	117	123
127	Bartolo Colon	123	110	109	123
128	Juan Nicasio	115	107	123	123
129	Joe Saunders	123	123	118	108
130	Jair Jurrjens	123	117	123	113
131	Kevin Correia	123	123	119	116
132	Michael Wacha	123	120	123	119

These players appeared on one set of rankings: Trevor Bauer, Chris Archer, Corey Kluber, Mike Fiers, Dillon Gee, Vance Worley, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade LeBlanc, Jordan Lyles, Josh Collmenter, Franklin Morales, Ted Lilly, Henderson Alvarez, J.A. Happ, Scott Kazmir and Danny Hultzen.

Paying Attention To Matt Carpenter

J.P. Breen — Mon, 20 May 2013 16:15:56 +0000

Earlier this month, I updated the second base tiered rankings and opined that Tier One consisted of Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler. That’s not really a controversial grouping, especially given the three currently lead qualified second basemen across the league in wOBA. They’re three ducks in a row atop the stat sheets.

And fourth in wOBA is … Matt Carpenter?

The 27-year-old owns a .360 wOBA and is demanding attention in all fantasy formats. He leads all second basemen in runs scored (33) and ranks second in on-base percentage. He’s hitting atop a solid Cardinals’ batting order, and if he continues to get on base, he should see plenty of run-scoring opportunities going forward. A few stolen bases would be nice, but fantasy owners will settle for a high-average, high-run guy with significant positional flexibility any day of the week.

By all accounts, the performance appears sustainable. Coming into Sunday’s finale against Milwaukee, Carpenter had compiled a .297/.372/.459 slash line in 518 plate appearances over the last two years. Great average and on-base skills, but only fringy power numbers. And glancing at the scouting report our own Marc Hulet wrote about him prior to the 2012 season, we see that his current offensive profile fits what most scouts saw in the minors:

Already 26, Carpenter has turned himself into a solid prospect after being selected out of Texas Christian University as a fifth-year senior. He has the ability to hit for average but his power potential is below-average for a third baseman and his best hope for playing time at the big league level, especially with St. Louis, might come from a utility/pinch-hit role. His defense is average at the hot corner.

Scouts always knew Carpenter could hit. His lack of power, however, held him back from being projected as an everyday player at third base. Of course, the St. Louis Cardinals circumvented that issue by shoving a square peg in a round hole and shifting Carpenter to second base during spring training, and it’s been a win for the organization thus far this season. He hasn’t been a trainwreck defensively at second and his bat is playing well atop the batting order.

Fantasy owners should also remain confident in the high batting average and on-base percentage because his plate discipline continues to be phenomenal. Coming into Sunday, his 0.87 BB/K ratio ranked 13th in all of baseball and was tied with the great Miguel Cabrera. He rarely swings and misses, he doesn’t chase too many pitches out of the zone, and he drives the baseball into the gaps when he does put the ball in play.

Truly pinning down Carpenter’s fantasy value is difficult, though. He’s going to offer a great batting average, plenty of runs, and positional flexibility. On the other hand, his potential lack of double-digit home run power is an issue. It’s rare that a qualified second baseman fails to hit 10 long balls, considering 15 second basemen reached that benchmark last season. Some have pointed to his 12 homers in Double-A (2010) or his 12 homers in Triple-A (2011) as evidence for his ability to reach double-digits in the power department. It’s important to note, though, playing the majority of games in Busch Stadium will only further depress his home run totals.

In each of the last five years, Busch Stadium has posted a below-average home run factor — with the vast majority of years showing an extreme suppression of homers.

Year	MLB Rank
2008	19
2009	28
2010	26
2011	27
2012	21

For a player with questionable power, like Matt Carpenter, it’s unreasonable to expect him to outperform expectations in that category in such a difficult power environment. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect double-digit homers from Carpenter this season, which certainly hurts his overall value. After all, only two guys with fewer than 10 home runs finished within the top 15 second basemen in the end-of-season rankings — and only Marco Scutaro did so without significant stolen base numbers. In 541 career plate appearances, Carpenter has one stolen base on two attempts.

So, best-case scenario, we’re talking ’12 Marco Scutaro with more runs and fewer RBI — and Scutaro was the 10th-most valuable second basemen last year. I find that to be interesting because Matt Carpenter feels more valuable than that. A guy hitting .296/.378/.440 feels more valuable than 10th overall. Still, at that value, he’s still a starting second basemen in almost every conceivable format. It’s simply necessary for owners to remember where his limitations lie and compensate elsewhere on their roster to remain competitive across all categories.

Mixing it Up: Changes in Pitch Usage

Brett Talley — Mon, 20 May 2013 14:15:04 +0000

Predicting the future performance of baseball players is a wildly frustrating endeavor. When projecting a hitter’s stat line, it’s impossible to account for the player having a BABIP that’s nowhere close to their career average. When projecting a pitcher, it’s hard to know when their HR/FB rate is going to swing drastically away from their career average. The shifts in “luck” make projecting seem like a fool’s errand at times.

But it may be even more frustrating when something within the player’s control changes completely. When predicting the future, you largely have to rely on the assumption that what the player puts into the equation will remain relatively the same. But of course that’s not the case. Hitters will lose plate discipline out of nowhere. Pitchers will lose the ability to induce swings and misses. It just happens. But it’s often very hard to know when those changes are going to happen.

Another example of the input changing is a shift in the mix of pitches a pitcher will use.

For example, when I projected Cole Hamels as a top ten pitcher, I was operating under the assumption that he would continue to use his changeup about 30% of the time like he did last year seeing as how his change is by far his best pitch according to our pitch values. And my assumption was even stronger that he would continue to use his cutter around 10% of the time like he has for the last three years, even though the pitch wasn’t as effective last year as it was in 2011. But those assumptions were wrong. Hamels is throwing the change about 25% of the time and the cutter about 17% of the time.

Hamels is presumably throwing the change less often because he is struggling with his control of the pitch. For his career, his change has been called a ball 26.61% of the time he throws it. But this year it’s being called a ball exactly 11% of the time more (37.61%). But it doesn’t really matter that he’s throwing it less because his control of it is off. We couldn’t have expected his control of the pitch to decline so suddenly. When the inputs change without warning, it makes predictions look silly.

I decided to take a look and see whether the pitchers who have the biggest differences between their 2012 and 2013 xFIPs have made significant changes to their pitch mix. I used the PITCHf/x percentages here on the site and calculated the difference in usage between 2012 and 2013 for all pitchers who are currently qualified and who also had 100+ IP last season.

What I found was that almost all of those who have improved the most have made some significant changes. But those struggling seem to be using a similar mix and are suffering from other problems. Aside from Hamels, Jon Niese is the only other potentially useable starter who has seen a significant change in pitch usage and has seen a decline in skill.

Below are the pitchers with the biggest improvements in xFIP along with the differences in pitch usage. The chart may look like it is cut off, but changeups are the last column.

xFIP				Pitch Usage Gap
Name	Gap	2013	2012	FA%	FT%	FC%	FS%	SI%	SL%	CU%	CH%
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.54	3.44	4.98	-10.0%	1.0%	0.2%	-0.6%	0.0%	1.4%	-3.2%	11.6%
Clay Buchholz	1.33	3.1	4.43	3.1%	0.8%	1.9%	-3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-2.0%	-0.6%
Anibal Sanchez	1.32	2.28	3.6	5.1%	0.0%	-6.1%	0.0%	4.3%	-2.8%	-0.4%	0.4%
Ervin Santana	1.13	3.35	4.48	-9.4%	8.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.3%	0.0%	-3.1%
Yu Darvish	1.12	2.4	3.52	-8.5%	-5.0%	1.1%	-0.8%	0.0%	18.0%	-5.1%	0.1%
Jake Peavy	1.05	2.94	3.99	-15.7%	25.5%	3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-7.5%	-2.8%	-2.7%
Adam Wainwright	0.89	2.34	3.23	13.8%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	-12.4%	0.0%	1.0%	-3.5%
Homer Bailey	0.85	3.09	3.94	-16.4%	19.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-3.6%	-0.4%	1.1%
Derek Holland	0.84	3.3	4.14	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-12.5%	13.1%	-7.2%	5.6%
A.J. Burnett	0.78	2.62	3.4	-1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%
Ryan Dempster	0.74	3.03	3.77	10.3%	-12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	0.0%	-9.5%	0.0%	0.0%

Of that group, Ubaldo Jimenez , Homer Bailey and Ryan Dempster are probably the buy-lows. Everyone else on the list other than Peavy has an ERA under 3.00, and Peavy’s ERA isn’t too far above his xFIP. But Ubaldo’s ERA is almost two runs higher than his xFIP, Dempster’s is about three-quarters of a run higher, and Bailey’s is about half a run higher.

There are some differences between the pitch classifications here at Fangraphs and those over at BrooksBaseball.com. Brooks has Ubaldo throwing more splitters and sinkers this year as opposed to changeups like we do. But however you want to classify it, he’s throwing more balls with sink and fewer traditional four seamers. Given the precipitous drop in velocity he’s experienced in the last few years, this probably isn’t a bad idea.

Admittedly, his control is still awful. But his groundball and strikeout rates look more like they did back when he didn’t suck. His current strikeout rate (26.2%) is likely to regress, but his swinging strike rate is up a little from last year, so he should be able to continue to strike out hitters at an above average rate. I couldn’t blame you for refusing to consider him, but I believe he’s going to have some good starts in the future. However, he is home to Detroit and at Cincinnati in his next two starts. You might want to give him another look in June.

Dempster has added a cutter to the mix at the expense of his two-seamer. He’s also upped his four-seamer and splitter usage at the expense of his slider. And even though his slider is a plus pitch for him according to our pitch values, it’s probably good that he’s not throwing it an absurd 40% of the time like he did last year. This is another situation where classifications may not be exact because we have him ditching his change after 2012 and Brooks never really had Demp throwing a change. But his splitter has roughly the same velocity as what was classified as his change here and obviously has similar movement.

I didn’t realize it until I delved a little deeper into Bailey’s numbers in order to write this paragraph, but like Ubaldo and Dempster, Bailey has also increased the usage of his sinking pitches. Our classifications have him throwing fewer four-seamers and more two-seamers, while Brooks has him throwing more sinkers and splitters. Either way, all three of these buy low candidates have shifted towards more pitches with sink. And they’ve all seen increases in their swinging strike rates with Ubaldo and Bailey also seeing big gains in their groundball rate.

One thing these three have not seen is their ERAs following their improved xFIPs. And given a noticeable shift in their pitch usage, it’s reasonable to assume that their improvements in skill are legitimate to some degree and that their ERAs should eventually move toward their xFIPs.

Why I’m Not Buying B.J. Upton

Mike Podhorzer — Mon, 20 May 2013 12:15:47 +0000

It’s easy to make buy low and sell high calls. Anyone could compare a player’s current season ranking with his preseason and blindly advise fantasy owners to acquire or trade away said player. While that advice sometimes does have value, perhaps more beneficial is identifying players you should not attempt to buy at a discount or trade away at an assumed profit. That is why we sometimes have the “Not a Sleeper, Not a Bust” segment on The Sleeper and the Bust podcast, as we highlight players who should not be purchased at a discount (and are therefore Not a Sleeper) or sold high (and are therefore Not a Bust). So sticking with the Not a Sleeper theme, this is why I am not buying B.J. Upton.

First off is the caveat — of course any player of Upton’s preseason dollar value range should be acquired if the price is right. If he was dropped in your league and it’s not like a 6-teamer or shallower, then pick him up immediately! But assuming your league is of at least average competitiveness, he’s not going to be a free agent and it’s unlikely his owner is giving him away for a player you both expect to earn $5 the rest of the way.

My CBS league tells me that the site ranked Upton 114th in the preseason (which actually seems quite undervalued) and that he currently ranks 689. And that ranking is not due to missed time from an injury. He’s hitting .145 and is on a pace for just 11 home runs, 23 (!!) runs batted in, 39 (!!) runs, and 11 steals (with 11 caught stealings). Yeah, he’s been absolutely horrific.

It’s also easy to point to a career worst K% (33.8% versus career average of 25.4%) and an atrocious .094 ISO as reasons not to bother with Upton at this point. Buy then the buy low in me looks at the .205 BABIP (of course, with a .145 batting average, his BABIP couldn’t possibly be anywhere close to his career average) and think there has to be some sort of dead cat bounce. Then the pessimistic side screams about Upton’s ridiculous 31% IFFB%, which actually kinda justifies that sad BABIP.

Anyhow, none of those statistical explanations relate to why I ain’t touching Upton. There are actually two non-statistical reasons, but are affected of course by his performance. They are thus:

1) Lineup Slot

On opening day, Upton started off in the number five hole, which was a pretty strong spot in a formidable Braves lineup. He would be expected to have strong RBI opportunities behind solid OBP guys in Jason Heyward, his bro Justin Upton, and Freddie Freeman. Plus, the deep Braves lineup would provide some additional power bats behind him with Dan Uggla and their third base platoon partners, which would lead to a solid runs scored total. After a slow start by Andrelton Simmons, Fredi Gonzalez, ever the tinkerer, moved him into the leadoff spot, dropping Simmons toward the bottom of the order.

But all this time and no matter which spot in the order he was slotted into, Upton didn’t hit. Finally, towards the end of April, he was dropped to the seven hole. Aside from three random games when he hit leadoff again or from the two spot, he had hit seventh in every other game until last Wednesday when he batted sixth. But then in his last two games, he was dropped as far as he could be, into the dreaded eighth spot right in front of the pitcher.

This is significant. When we project, rank and draft/purchase fantasy players for our teams, we do so with the underlying assumption that they will hit in a certain position in the lineup. Obviously, a hitter expected to bat cleanup is not going to knock in as many runs if he was instead slotted into the eighth spot. So all of our counting stat expectations need to be adjusted downward when a hitter gets dropped in the order.

The problem now is that the Braves lineup is quite good. Heyward, Upton and Freeman in the 2, 3 and 4 slots aren’t going anywhere. Brian McCann looks clearly healthy again and when he’s healthy, he’s a better hitter than a normally performing Upton. That may lock up the fifth spot in the order. It’s even arguable that Dan Uggla is a better hitter than Upton if you focus on his OBP rather than his batting average, who would take the sixth spot. So what this means is that it will be very difficult for Upton to get back into a favorable lineup spot.

Overtaking Andrelton Simmons at leadoff might be his best bet, as Simmons sports just a .283 OBP. If he would quit hitting so many popups (seriously, what the heck are they doing to the water in Atlanta with all these popups?), his .242 BABIP would jump and bring that OBP above .300 where it belongs.

2) Fredi Gonzalez, the Tinkerer

In a past article, I called Fredi Gonzalez that fantasy owner who makes 200 transactions a season, continually adding and dropping the hot and cold players of the week. Gonzalez has moved Simmons and Upton all around the lineup in reaction to their performances, which is silly. We’ve seen what Gonzalez could do back when Jason Heyward was struggling when he benched the left-hander in favor of Jose Constanza.

Now all of a sudden, Jordan Schafer is back in Atlanta and surprise, surprise, is playing well. He’s showing a strong walk rate and is left-handed, so it is conceivable that Schafer will begin stealing more starts away from Upton, at least against right-handers. That of course will make it even more difficult for Upton to turn things around.

Obviously, given the contract the Braves signed Upton to, he’s not going to outright lose his job to Schafer and become a bench player. But fantasy owners demand as many at-bats as possible and even just getting benched once a week is going to take a bite out of his value.

So Upton faces two challenges now in his quest to deliver fantasy value to his owners or potential owners — the risk that he continues hitting in a poor lineup spot for fantasy counting stats and the risk that he loses more playing time to Schafer. Unless you can get him at a significant discount, you are better off letting him make his current owners weep all season long.

Roto Riteup: May 20, 2013

Zach Sanders — Mon, 20 May 2013 11:15:45 +0000

Today’s Roto Riteup aims to start your week off with magic and general deliciousness.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jake Odorizzi gets the call
2. Chris Archer, Alex Torres stuck in Triple-A
3. Here comes Jurickson Profar
4. Minor injury notes

Jake Odorizzi gets the call
With David Price landing on the DL, the Rays had three viable options to fill his spot in the big league rotation. Odorizzi got the nod for the DRays, beating out fellow prospects Chris Archer and Alex Torres. Acquired from the Royals as a large part of the James Shields trade, Odorizzi has been cruising along in Triple-A, but the right-hander has still displayed problems with the home run ball, allowing seven in eight starts. Price is out indefinitely, but it sounds as if he may only miss three turns through the rotation. Odorizzi is worth grabbing in deep or dynasty leagues if he’s not already owned, but he’s not worth the transaction in standard mixed leagues.

Chris Archer, Alex Torres stuck in Triple-A
Torres and Archer were both passed over in favor of Odorizzi, but Torres’ situation is even more heartbreaking. Torres was already in the bigs prior to Odorizzi’s promotion, pitching twice out of the bullpen before being sent down to the minors to make room. Archer, on the other hand, was pitching in Triple-A, but may have been looked over due to a calf injury that caused him to miss a start and has appeared to alter his performance. Of the two, Archer is the much better fantasy prospect due to the likelihood of pitching in the rotation while the Rays likely see Torres as an MLB reliever.

Here comes Jurickson Profar
Profar is being recalled from Triple-A Round Rock to take the spot of Ian Kinsler, who is headed to the DL after suffering a rib injury earlier last week. Profar, widely considered the best prospect in all of baseball, will be playing every day at second base in Kinsler’s absence. Profar is a mere 20 years old, but he brings a great approach from both sides of the plate, terrific defense, and moderate power that should only improve over time. Profar’s only negative would be his low BABIPs across the minor leagues, as top hitting prospects usually have much higher BABIPs than Profar’s traditional .305 mark. He may not hit right away, but Profar is a guy you want on your fantasy roster in pretty much all formats.

Minor injury notes
• Carlos Ruiz strained a hammy while roaming the basepaths yesterday. Ruiz missed the start of the year due to a drug suspension, so this setback means even more time lost for owners.

• Michael Cuddyer expects to be back on Friday, which is much earlier than I expected. Cuddyer hit the DL due to a issue with a disc in his neck, but an epidural appears to have made his child birthing experience more comfortable.

Bullpen Report: May 19, 2013

Colin Zarzycki — Mon, 20 May 2013 03:05:51 +0000

• Well, the closer merry-go-round in Los Angeles seems to be getting more interesting by the day. Less than 24 hours removed from Kenley Jansen‘s minor meltdown while trying to hold a close lead, he struggled in the eighth again. This time, Brandon League was called upon to try and put out the fire while wrapping up a multi-inning save. He did neither, allowing both inherited runners to score and allowing two of his own to cross the plate. LA Time beat writer Dylan Hernandez insinuated after that game that, had League snuck out of that jam, Matt Guerrier would have pitched the ninth, although it’s unlikely that was the plan before League entered.

Regardless, League continues to own an extremely pedestrian 10.6% K% and 4.57 xFIP and appears to be slowly losing his grip on the closer role. The high-upside Jansen probably could have ripped it away with a few good performances but this week’s bump in the road came at an inopportune time. Given his gaudy strikeout rates and sub-3.00 xFIP, I still think Jansen is far-and-away the guy to own in this bullpen but it’s a full-on red situation right now. If you are in anything deeper than a 14-teamer and love speculating, you could always grab Ronald Belisario and Guerrier, too.

• Steve Cishek got pulled mid-save situation today, ceding to southpath Mike Dunn who (after a walk of his own) induced a game-ending groundout from A.J. Pollock. The run Cishek allowed was actually charged to Ricky Nolasco, who gave up a leadoff double before Miami’s closer was summoned. All bow before “the curse of the closer not starting his own inning.” Cishek is not in any imminet danger of losing his closing gig, but I continue to be very concerned with his platoon splits. His wOBA LHH/RHH splits in 2013 (.408/.135) are even uglier than his career marks (.326/.230). The sidearming righty is currently being exploited by pinch-hitting lefties, and if the trend continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a guy like Dunn get some opportunities similar to the Scott Downs/Ernesto Frieri platoon from the middle of last year. As with the Dodgers middle relievers, both Dunn and A.J. Ramos should be owned in deep leagues.

• Aroldis Chapman gave up not one, but two home runs in an ugly outing in Philadelphia today. The appearance caused his xFIP to “balloon” to 2.89 and today’s two taters represent more than 20% of the career round-trippers he has allowed. There remains little reason to be concerned about Chapman; his K% is down a tick and his BB% is up from last year, but there are no pitchers (outside of Craig Kimbrel) who can reproduce his 2012. His velocity looks very similar to what it was last year, and, if he follows last year’s trajectory, looks to increase slightly as the months warm up. He’s still fantasy’s number two closer.

• Ryan Cook finished off the Royals this afternoon. It wasn’t the easiest of saves, however, with Kansas City putting the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second before Cook induced a Mike Moustakas groundout to end the game. He’s the clear handcuff in Oakland, but don’t get too excited; Grant Balfour was just getting a day off after working the previous two days. He’ll be back in there when the next opportuntiy arises.

• Andrew Bailey will be reinstated from the 15-day disabled list tomorrow. Pick him up in all leagues. He should take over the ninth inning immediately.

Closer Grid:

	Closer	First	Second	DL/Minors
Arizona	Heath Bell	David Hernandez	Matt Reynolds	J.J. Putz
Atlanta	Craig Kimbrel	Cory Gearrin	Luis Avilan	Jordan Walden
Baltimore	Jim Johnson	Darren O’Day	Pedro Strop
Boston	Junichi Tazawa	Koji Uehara	Andrew Miller	Andrew Bailey
CHI (NL)	Kevin Gregg	Kyuji Fujikawa	Carlos Marmol
CHI (AL)	Addison Reed	Jesse Crain	Matt Thornton
Cincy	Aroldis Chapman	Jonathan Broxton	J.J. Hoover
Cleveland	Chris Perez	Vinnie Pestano	Joe Smith
Colorado	Rafael Betancourt	Wilton Lopez	Rex Brothers
Detroit	Jose Valverde	Joaquin Benoit	Phil Coke
Houston	Jose Veras	Wesley Wright	Hector Ambriz
KC	Greg Holland	Kelvin Herrera	Tim Collins
LAA	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Jerome Williams	Ryan Madson
LAD	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Ronald Belisario
Miami	Steve Cishek	A.J. Ramos	Mike Dunn
Milwaukee	Jim Henderson	John Axford	Michael Gonzalez
Minnesota	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Casey Fien
NY (NL)	Bobby Parnell	Brandon Lyon	LaTroy Hawkins	Frank Francisco
NY (AL)	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain
Oakland	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle
Philly	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Antonio Bastardo
Pittsburgh	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Tony Watson
St. Louis	Edward Mujica	Trevor Rosenthal	Fernando Salas	Jason Motte
SD	Huston Street	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer
SF	Sergio Romo	Santiago Casilla	Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle	Tom Wilhelmsen	Carter Capps	Charlie Furbush
TB	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Jake McGee
Texas	Joe Nathan	Tanner Scheppers	Jason Frasor
Toronto	Casey Janssen	Steve Delabar	Darren Oliver	Sergio Santos
Wash.	Rafael Soriano	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/19/13

Mike Podhorzer — Mon, 20 May 2013 03:04:18 +0000

Episode 14
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor J.P. Breen. We discuss a headline-making call-up, a struggling first-rounder and pitchers galore..

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 39 min of joyous analysis.

Roto Riteup: May 19. 2013

David Wiers — Sun, 19 May 2013 13:15:51 +0000

The Arrested Development countdown is down to a week! If they bring back Maggie or especially Rita for Michael, tears of joy — not to mention laughter — will be shed. If they do bring back Rita then #hotpotato had better become a trending topic.

On today’s agenda:
1. Another setback for Cory Luebke
2. More trouble in the Atlanta Braves bullpen
3. Brandon McCarthy‘s gem
4. Make a play for Chris Young
5. Matt Garza to return Tuesday

Another setback for Cory Luebke
For the second time this year, Cory Luebke has been forced to stop his throwing sessions. There is no new timetable for his return, however earlier in the season both he and the San Diego Padres had hopes of him returning around the All-Star break. If you were clinging to him as a late round pick, hoping to see half a season out of him, then this may be the final straw. Luebke should be dropped in all but keeper/dynasty formats in standard sized mixed 12-team leagues. When healthy, Luebke makes for a solid fantasy starter, however we may not see much of him this season. His career line as a starter is a 3.30 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.26 xFIP and averaged over a strikeout per inning. Hopefully he’ll make a comeback and he’ll be a sleeper pick for next season.

More trouble in the Atlanta Braves bullpen
After losing Jonny Venters to Tommy John‘s surgery earlier in the week and Jordan Walden to the 15-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation, now Eric O’Flaherty is slated to see Dr. James Andrews. O’Flaherty was diagnosed with a torn UCL, something that generally lends itself to requiring TJS. Losing two of the top three bullpen arms in all of baseball over the past few seasons is sure to make a significant dent in the Braves bullpen as well as fantasy teams all over. Fellow holds league players should look elsewhere for options, as the Braves pen has gone from a fantasy bargain to an injury cratered mess.

Brandon McCarthy‘s gem
He may have appeared to start the season in rather rough fashion, but lately Brandon McCarthy has come on strong. Yesterday he threw a complete game shutout, although he was facing the Miami Marlins, and allowed five base runners on the night. McCarthy only struck out five for the day, however given that he faced four batters above the minimum, that would be picking nits. His last two starts have combined for 17 innings, zero runs, 10 strikeouts, and 12 base runners allowed. Grab him now where you can as McCarthy is available in over 60% of ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo! leagues.

Make a play for Chris Young
The Oakland Athletics activated Chris Young from the 15-day DL yesterday in a win over the Kansas City Royals. Though he was held hitless in his first outing back, he is in no danger of losing playing time. Josh Reddick is still on the disabled list and just began taking dry swings and still hopes that surgery won’t be needed to address his sprained wrist. Young is hitting a not-so-pleasant .169/.279/.382 thus far, but he does have four home runs and five steals. His last 20-20 season was just two seasons ago and the 29-year-old outfielder has set a solid pace to do it again this year. With a double digit walk rate and an essentially average 19.2% strike out rate, Young doesn’t seem to be pressing at the plate. His .167 BABIP is the root cause of his tripe slash woe, and we all know what a fickle mistress BABIP can be. Young is widely available in all three major fantasy sites.

Matt Garza to return Tuesday
The Chicago Cubs will activate Matt Garza on Tuesday to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. The announcement comes on the heels of his six inning, no runs allowed Triple-A start last Thursday. Weekly league players should make a move now, as Garza deserves to be owned in just about all leagues and scoring settings. He can be picked up in 50% of Yahoo! leagues, 70% of ESPN formats, and 30% of CBS leagues.

Bullpen Report: May 18, 2013

Alan Harrison — Sun, 19 May 2013 03:16:56 +0000

Since 2010, the Atlanta Braves bullpen owns a major league best 2.95 ERA (3.21 FIP) with 1,628 strikeouts. They’ve been worth 19.1 WAR over that same time frame, placing them behind only the Colorado Rockies who’ve accumulated 19.8 WAR. Additionally, Atlanta’s ‘pen saved 152 games since the beginning of ‘10 — third-best in the bigs — as well as earning the league’s fourth-most holds, 276.

Largely to thank for this success are Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters, who’ve combined for 447 (!) appearances and 5.7 WAR since the beginning of the twenty-ten campaign. And what do these two relievers have in common besides leading the same bullpen to it’s recent success? They’ve both been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in their pitching elbows in the past week. Venters went under the knife on Thursday — his second bout with Tommy John — and will miss the remainder of the 2013 and some of the 2014 season. O’Flaherty’s MRI confirmed a tear of the UCL prompting a visit to Dr. James Andrews — the same doctor who repaired Venters’ UCL, as well as most of the other hurlers in baseball who undergo similar procedures — sometime in the next week. A timeline has yet to be announced for EOF, but one may assume it will be the “typical” 12-15 month recovery that TJ requires.

For fantasy baseballers in leagues that reward holds, Cory Gearrin and Luis Avilan appear to be two of the favorites (from within the organization) to assume set-up duties in Atlanta. Gearrin and Avilan are currently owned in 0% and 1% of Yahoo! leagues, respectively.

Don Mattingly signaled for Kenley Jansen to relieve Chris Capuano in the bottom of the eighth frame in Atlanta tonight. Jansen, a hot topic as-of-late in the fantasy analyst community, was asked to face Evan Gattis with an inherited runner on second. Naturally, Jansen surrendered a two-run moonshot to “El Oso Blanco,” and for an encore, gave up a solo-shot to Andrelton Simmons. Craig Kimbrel entered in the top of the ninth with a two-run lead and sat down the Dodgers in order — including two strikeouts — for his 13th save on the season. Kimbrel now has two consecutive saves after blowing three of the previous five.

One of the more underrated — or less discussed — closers, Casey Janssen is a perfect 10-for-10 in save opportunities with a 0.69 ERA and a 0.21 WHIP so far this season. More interesting is that Janssen has struck out 30% of the batters he’s faced without surrendering a walk in 13 appearances. Early next week, the bullpen team here at RotoGraphs will be reranking relievers for the rest of the season, and Janssen appears primed for a top 15 ranking (for me, anyway).

Ernesto Frieri (8), Huston Street (10) and Jim Henderson (8) also earned saves this evening, while Chris Perez and Jim Johnson each blew save chances.

Closer Grid:

	Closer	First	Second	DL/Minors
Arizona	Heath Bell	David Hernandez	Matt Reynolds	J.J. Putz
Atlanta	Craig Kimbrel	Cory Gearrin	Luis Avilan	Jordan Walden
Baltimore	Jim Johnson	Darren O’Day	Pedro Strop
Boston	Junichi Tazawa	Koji Uehara	Andrew Miller	Andrew Bailey
CHI (NL)	Kevin Gregg	Kyuji Fujikawa	Carlos Marmol
CHI (AL)	Addison Reed	Jesse Crain	Matt Thornton
Cincy	Aroldis Chapman	Jonathan Broxton	J.J. Hoover
Cleveland	Chris Perez	Joe Smith	Bryan Shaw	Vinnie Pestano
Colorado	Rafael Betancourt	Wilton Lopez	Matt Belisle
Detroit	Jose Valverde	Joaquin Benoit	Al Alburquerque
Houston	Jose Veras	Wesley Wright	Hector Ambriz
KC	Greg Holland	Kelvin Herrera	Tim Collins
LAA	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Jerome Williams	Ryan Madson
LAD	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Ronald Belisario
Miami	Steve Cishek	A.J. Ramos	Chad Qualls
Milwaukee	Jim Henderson	John Axford	Michael Gonzalez
Minnesota	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Casey Fien
NY (NL)	Bobby Parnell	Brandon Lyon	LaTroy Hawkins	Frank Francisco
NY (AL)	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain
Oakland	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle
Philly	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Antonio Bastardo
Pittsburgh	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Tony Watson
St. Louis	Edward Mujica	Trevor Rosenthal	Fernando Salas	Jason Motte
SD	Huston Street	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer
SF	Sergio Romo	Santiago Casilla	Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle	Tom Wilhelmsen	Carter Capps	Charlie Furbush
TB	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Jake McGee
Texas	Joe Nathan	Tanner Scheppers	Jason Frasor
Toronto	Casey Janssen	Steve Delabar	Darren Oliver	Sergio Santos
Wash.	Rafael Soriano	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 5.20-5.26

Brandon Warne — Sat, 18 May 2013 16:30:20 +0000

Let’s first start with results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)
Week 6*: 0-2, 16.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 1.62 WHIP (Justin Grimm, Juan Nicasio, Hector Santiago)

—————————————————————–
Total: 8-13, 156 IP, 4.56 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP

Let’s take a peek at some leaderboards. Basically, the pitchers I’ve recommended so far this season are a bizarre combination of Teheran, Stults, and Bartolo Colon.

So there’s that.

Here are this week’s recommendations, with the assist again going to @tlschwerz from Twitter:

Julio Teheran – 9.6% ESPN/24% Yahoo! – v. MIN (.309 team wOBA), @NYM (.303)

We go back to the well with Teheran this week due to a couple very nice matchups. True enough, the Twins are among the highest-scoring offenses in baseball in May, but that’s come with Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham slumping, Joe Mauer now hurting, and only Justin Morneau really rolling. That doesn’t seem all that sustainable. So that leaves both offenses Teheran faces this week as bottom-ten offenses. It should be a good week to get him rolling.

Phil Hughes – 46.0% ESPN/45% Yahoo! – @BAL (.328), @TB (.330)

Hughes was blasted last time out, as he failed to get out of the first inning while allowing seven earned runs to the Mariners. He also wasn’t good against the Royals in the start before that. But in the four starts prior to the last two clunkers, Hughes went 28 innings, fanned 30 while only walking 5, and allowed just 6 earned runs (1.93 ERA). In that span, he faced Tampa Bay and Oakland, both of which are two of the top 11 offenses in the game by wOBA.

The strikeouts are there, and the walk rate is pretty solid. I think Hughes has some projection in his game, and so do his FIP numbers — 5.88-4.62-4.32. I’m not starting him ultra-confidently — the Rays and O’s have good offenses — but I think he’s a fine option given the usual quality of sub-50% ownership pitchers.

Scott Kazmir – 20.1% ESPN/23 percent Yahoo! – v. SEA (.309), @BOS (.336)

I had originally wanted to select Ross Detwiler, but he has already been scratched from his start on Monday. That leaves Kazmir as a fill-in option. I like Kazmir against the Mariners — sixth-highest team whiff rate in the major leagues — but I’m worried a patient team like the Red Sox — third-highest team walk rate — will wait him out and pummel him when he is forced to work within the strike zone. That is, if he can find it.

Kazmir has so far done a very good job limiting the free pass — 2.8 per 9 to-date — but with that being the primary issue that led to his unraveling in the first place, he’ll be on that watch-list for a considerable amount of time before he’s considered out of the woods. To his credit, he’s currently throwing 1.9 strikes to every ball, and he’s doing so while throwing over five miles-per-hour faster than he did when he was last in the major leagues. In fact, the last time he threw this hard — 91.7 mph average heater — was in 2008 with Tampa Bay.

That year he carried a 3.49 ERA and was a plus-2.0 win player. The Indians would surely take that out of a reclamation project. His ERA says he has a ways to go (5.33), but he’s been a bit unlucky with the home run ball, his BABIP is up just a bit, and that actually leads to him having a 3.89 xFIP. Now there’s no guarantee that his HR rate will completely normalize — he’s allowing 2.5 per 9, which is ghastly — but he’s well over double his career rate. With his velocity all the way back, I think he may be worth a buy-low.