It’s hard to remember now, but a 19 year-old Sandoval hit a tepid.265/.309/.322 with Augusta back in 2006. He swatted just one homer in 438 AB, while walking about once a week (4.7 BB%). Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America didn’t include Pablo in San Francisco’s top 30 prospects list.

Since then, Sandoval has pummeled pitchers.

The switch-hitter turned in a .287/.312/.476 triple-slash in the High-A California League in 2007. There were still plenty of skeptics, however. Sandoval split his season between catcher and first base, but his bulky 5-11, 245 pound frame kept most scouts from envisioning him as anything more than a first baseman.

He made plenty of contact (13 K%) and posted a .190 ISO, but that power output came in a circuit that favors offense. And, Sandoval continued to display an alarming lack of plate discipline (3.8 BB%). BA still didn’t include Pablo in San Fran’s top 30 prior to 2008.

In ‘08, Sandoval assaulted the Cal League and the AA Eastern League for a combined .350/.394/.578 line. He showcased unprecedented pop (.228 ISO), while punching out just 12.2% of the time. Pablo’s BABIP was an enormous .375, and he drew a free pass just 6.4%. But that sort of batting blitzkrieg from a guy just old enough to buy a drink tends to garner attention.

Sandoval reached San Francisco in August, and proceeded to hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 PA. He posted a .145 ISO, while whiffing just 9.7% of the time. Pablo made contact with 92.9% of pitches within the strike zone, compared to the 87.8% MLB average.

To say that Sandoval was a liberal swinger would be a massive understatement. Pablo took a cut at a jaw-dropping 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He was in a whole new tier of hackery. Sandoval’s O-Swing% dwarfed the competition. Among batters with 140+ PA in ‘08, the closest competitor was Vladimir Guerrero, at 45.5%. When you make Vlad the Impaler look downright conservative by comparison, that’s saying something.

Sandoval entered 2009 as an intriguing fantasy option, given his position eligibility at catcher, first base and third base.

Pablo was in some respects a polarizing player, however. Those sanguine about his future saw a guy in his early twenties with superb hitting skills and plenty of thump. Others painted a more pessimistic picture, seeing a player headed for the low end of the defensive spectrum with limited strike-zone plate discipline. Maybe he was just a switch-hitting Randall Simon.

In 2009, Sandoval silenced his critics. In 633 PA, Kung Fu Panda creamed pitchers for a .396 wOBA and a .330/.387/.556 line. Spending most of his time at third base, Pablo compiled +34.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, ranking 20th among all batters.

Sandoval slugged 25 homers, with a robust .226 ISO. He obliterated fastballs (+1.60 runs per 100 pitches), curveballs (+3.14) and changeups (+3.78), while being a mere mortal against sliders (-0.53).

While Pablo was far from being some beacon of discipline at the dish, he did show modest improvement in working the count.

As you might expect, opposing pitchers saw no reason to give Sandoval many pitches in the zone. Just 40.5% of Sandoval’s pitches seen crossed over the plate, the lowest rate in the majors by far (Kendry Morales had the second-lowest Zone%, at 43.7). While Pablo still lunged at outside offerings often, he did lower his O-Swing% to 41.5.

To be sure, San Francisco’s paucity of other offensive threats had something to do with Sandoval’s walk rate going from 2.7% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2009. Pablo was issued 13 intentional free passes this past year. His unintentional walk rate did climb from 1.9% in ‘08 to 6.2% in ‘09, though. Again, baby steps.

Sandoval has a career .356 BABIP at the big league level. Using the Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get an XBABIP of .316.

While we’re only dealing with 700-some AB’s here, that would make Sandoval more of a .290-.300 hitter going forward, as opposed to the .330-type guy on display so far. Given the additional power Pablo displayed in ‘09, as well as his modest strides in controlling the zone, I think he’s a good bet to eclipse .300.

Sean Smith’s CHONE projections for the 2010 season are out. CHONE has Pablo batting .312/.356/.502 next year, which equates to a wOBA of about .373.

While it’s wise to expect some regression from Sandoval in 2010, he’ll still be a highly valuable fantasy option. He won’t be eligible at catcher anymore (just three starts in ‘09), but Sandoval will still qualify at both infield corners. Just 23 years old, Kung Fu Panda is here to stay as an offensive threat.

Maybin’s tools and athleticism have had fantasy owners eagerly awaiting on the sidelines until they translated into performance at the big league level. Maybin was given the opportunity to man center field for the Fish at the outset of 2009 and he struggled mightily in 84 at-bats in April and May. In those 84 at-bats he hit .202/.280/.310 and struck out at an ugly 37% clip. Strikeouts have been the one main concern about Maybin in the scouting reports.

He was demoted to Triple-A Albuquerque in May and put everything together over the next 82 games and 298 at-bats despite playing with a partially torn labrum that bothered him over the second half of the season. In Albuquerque Maybin raked to the tune of .319/.399/.463 which is good for a .387 wOBA. A .388 BABIP padded his slash stats but most importantly Maybin cut down on the strikeouts and only struck out 20% of the time in Triple-A.

These improvements earned him a September call up and he played regularly to close out the season with the big league team. Over 78 at-bats Maybin hit .282/.352/.487 with three home runs and he stayed away from strike three. Maybin’s strikeout rate over the month, though a small sample size, stuck at 23% in the big leagues and he walked nine times.

Maybin will be 23 years old when the 2010 season starts and he’s expected to be the Marlins starting center fielder on opening day barring something catastrophic. He recently underwent surgery on his labrum and is expected to be 100% this Spring. Maybin will be a sleeper on draft day and should be good for 15-20 steals and a good source of hits and batting average. Drafters will likely be hesitant to nab him due to his unappetizing overall 2009 big league stats but Maybin improved his strikeout rate and plate recognition over the course of last season. It’s all systems go for Maybin and he’s a giant sleeper that could be had late on draft day.

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

To be absolutely precise, there should be down arrows next to Alex Rodriguez and David Wright because they used to be in a tier of their own and now have a little company at the top of the leaderboard. Despite his injured hip, Rodriguez basically replicated his 2008 season and an offseason of rest can only help. RJ Anderson and Dave Allen both covered David Wright and his power outage, and both agree the power should return. The only addition that I have, however crude, is that according to the hittracker, Wright would have only lost two of his 2008 home runs had he played in Citi Field that year. With power and speed, those two still rule the roost, if not as definitively as they have in the past. Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria have joined them at the top and there’s not really much to say other than they just don’t boast the speed upside. They’re still pretty good players, though.

Aramis Ramirez used to be in the top tier. He could still be there. But last year just reminded everyone that he’s a 32-year-old third baseman that has dealt with injuries his whole career and is clearly post-peak. He’s fallen into a tier with some exciting names with risk attached. Pablo Sandoval is everyone’s favorite Panda, but as a BABIP outlier (.356 career, .317 career xBABIP) even his most ardent fan has to admit the risk that the batting average falls and leaves him as a slightly under-powered third baseman minus his best tool. There’s no risk with Mark Reynolds‘ power, but there’s also little likelihood of a nice batting average to go with his power/speed combo. As Dave Allen noted, he makes it work, but you’ll also need to make it work by making up for his batting average if you pick him. Dave Cameron showed how Chone Figgins has upped his walk rates through his career and made himself into a better player, but any 32-year-old that makes his living with his feet carries inherent risk. Plus, he offers no power. Gordon Beckham has a nice power/speed package going, but he’ll need to hit more line drives (16.6%) next year in order to get the batting average up. Michael Young doesn’t have the batting average problem, but he has power that oscillates from poor to mediocre.

The final tier is where the veterans go to finish their careers. Ian Stewart is the only upside play of the bunch, and he needs to strike out a little less (32.5% in 2009, 27.6% career) and hit some more line drives (14.1% in 2009, 18.2% career) so that the batting average can find its way to respectable. Obviously, he has power. Chipper Jones is the best of the post-peak guys, but he carries the most injury risk as well. Casey Blake, Mike Lowell, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre can be picked out of the same bag using a blindfold. Admittedly, Beltre will cost the least, but getting him out of Safeco may mean that he will contribute similar stats to the other veterans in this tier.

In general, this is one of the more shallow positions in fantasy baseball. In a roto league, an owner betting on a final-tier third baseman is a step behind. The top two tiers offer some good value, but make sure you get your third baseman relatively early in 2010.

In 2008, Duchscherer posted a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 wins in 22 starts before hip issues sidelined him for the last month of the year. While his ERA and WHIP were fantasy gold, it didn’t look to be sustainable. David Golebiewski tackled this after the 2008 season, noting that a 3.69 FIP and .240 BABIP indicate an almost certain rise in his ERA and WHIP. Because he doesn’t strike out too many batters (6.04 K/9 in ‘08), his ERA and WHIP encompass most of his value outside of wins.

Fantasy owners should be praying “The Duke” leaves Oakland. If he stays, his wins will likely suffer, stealing away a good chunk of his fantasy value. The A’s have expressed interest in meeting with Duchscherer and bringing him back next year, but Duchscherer needs to decide if that is the best option for him and his family. That is typically the case, but the issue is magnified because he suffers from clinical depression.

If he decides he wants to stay in the Bay Area, the Giants have made public their desire for another starter, and Duchscherer could fit in well there. There haven’t been many rumors surrounding Duchscherer, because teams don’t want to target him if his mind isn’t in the right place. If he is determined to be healthy, there will be many more teams interested, such as the Yankees and Red Sox, who can gamble more than other organizations can.

Because he doesn’t overpower hitters (~86 MPH fastball), the elbow shouldn’t be a problem. If his mental health is right, he should be too. Keep your hopes up that he will leave Oakland, but plan on him staying in the bay area. Whatever team he joins will be better off, and it could mean a couple of more save opportunities for the closer. A’s players should pray it’s with them, because they could use a chance to win more games next year.

Paul Singman of The Hardball Times believes 36-year-old first baseman Todd Helton is worth trusting in drafts for the 2010 season. As Singman points out, he has remained a consistent hitter well into his 30s and still delivers the kind of power rates that will lead to useful home run and RBI totals. Helton also holds a .328 career batting average and has shown no discernible signs of slowing down. As long as he can avoid the back problems that hampered him in 2008, the former Tennessee quarterback is primed for another stellar season.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball gives us an early preview of the 2010 Red Sox, and lists some Boston players that might hold strong fantasy implications. Clay Buchholz could be a hidden gem on a strong staff if he can make a few slight improvements. His K/9 was just 6.65 in 2009, a career-low on any level. It was 8.53 in the majors in 2008 and 12.80 at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2007. Buchholz has the potential to develop into a strikeout machine and he may reach full development sooner than later. The post also has a look at Jeremy Hermida’s disappointing strikeout rates as a Marlin and how he might improve now that he’s with the Red Sox.

Fantasy Baseball Junkie thinks speedy outfielders will continue to go undervalued in drafts next season. Players like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and especially Bobby Abreu, can often be had at a discount despite quality numbers all over the fantasy map. As FBJ notes, “There are only two players that have been top 50 fantasy hitters for the past eleven seasons. One of them is Alex Rodriguez; the other is Bobby Abreu.” He was ranked only the 20th best fantasy outfielder for 2010 by CBS and the 54th best hitter by ESPN. Of course, things could change by the time leagues begin drafting.

The fellas over at Razzball give a 2010 fantasy outlook for the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Allen. He should get an opportunity during Spring Training to win Arizona’s starting first base job and has shown enough power in the minor leagues to warrant selection late in drafts next season. That said, he needs to work on his strikeout rate, which stood at an ugly 38.5% in 116 plate appearances last season. The D’Backs already have enough whiffers.

One of the writers over at SB Nation’s Fake Teams had the sixth overall pick in a recent mock draft and selected the Brewers’ Ryan Braun. Here’s his justification: “I chose Braun as I feel there is some position scarcity in the outfield in 2010, and Braun provides you 5 categories in 5×5 leagues, and has increased his RBI totals in each of the last 2 seasons, and hit the 20 marks in SBs in 2009.”

Have a link, question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Aramis Ramirez missed considerable time with a shoulder injury. Milton Bradley left his power stroke at the airport baggage claim. Alfonso Soriano turned in a sub-replacement-level campaign.

Another oft-cited reason for Chicago’s mild performance was the “sophomore slump” of catcher Geovany Soto. Geo crushed pitchers in 2008 for a .371 wOBA, displaying secondary skills that most backstops could only dream of.

But in 2009, the injury-wracked Soto posted a .310 wOBA. His bat declined by nearly two and a half wins: Soto compiled +17.1 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ‘08, but he declined to -7.7 Batting Runs in ‘09. Slowed by shoulder and oblique problems, Geovany lost playing time to Koyie Hill down the stretch. What gives? Was Soto a flash in the pan?

The answer would appear to be a resounding “no.”

Soto drew walks in 11.2% of his PA in 2008, while offering at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). In 2009, he walked 13.1%, while showing even more restraint on out-of-the-zone offerings (17.8 O-Swing%).

Geo’s K rate was largely unchanged. He punched out 24.5% in ‘08, and 23.3% in ‘09. Soto actually did a better job of making contact this past season. The soon-to-be 27 year-old put the bat on the ball 83.4% of the time on pitches within the zone in 2008. In ‘09, his Z-Contact% climbed to 87.3% (87.8% MLB average).

Granted, Soto didn’t hit for as much power in 2009. But how many catchers not named “Piazza” can hold a near-.220 ISO year in and year out? We should have expected that number to regress in 2009. And it’s not like Soto was a weakling this past year: he had a .163 ISO.

So, Soto posted a higher walk rate, swung at fewer pitches off the plate, punched out less often, made more contact on in-zone pitches and still displayed plenty of pop for the position that he plays. How is it that his line tumbled so badly?

In 2008, Geovany had a .337 BABIP. In ‘09, his BABIP fell off a cliff, down to .251.

As a catcher who runs like he has a piano strapped to his shoulders (2.0 career Speed Score, compared to the 5.0 MLB average), Soto won’t beat out many close plays at first. But his career minor league BABIP was .359, and his career BABIP in the majors is .310.

We can use Derek Carty’s Expected BABIP tool to get a better idea of Soto’s BABIP range, based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs.

Carty’s tool is based upon the excellent research of Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton. Their work found a positive relationship between BABIP and batter’s eye (BB/K rate), line drive percentage, Speed Score and P/PA. Dutton and Bendix’s XBABIP model does the best job of predicting future BABIP.

Based on his 2008 numbers, Soto’s XBABIP was .316, compared to his actual .337 mark. In 2009, Geovany’s XBABIP was .314. Remember, his actual BABIP was .251, a staggering 63 points lower. Even assuming all additional hits were singles, Soto’s line would have been .281/.384/.444 instead of his actual .218/.321/.381 triple-slash.

Soto had some extra bounces go his way in ‘08, and then appeared to have terrible luck on balls put in play in 2009. His core skills, however, scarcely changed. His XBABIP numbers in 2008 and 2009 were nearly identical, and match up quite nicely with his career .310 BABIP.

Bill James’ projections peg Geo for a .273/.361/.469 line in 2010, good for a .362 wOBA. Sean Smith just released his CHONE 2010 projections, and he has Soto at .265/.354/.456. That equates to a wOBA around .355.

For reference, only six catchers with 300+ PA posted a wOBA better than .350 in 2009. The average wOBA at the position was .310.

Don’t forget Soto’s name on draft day. Some may have soured on him, but the Cubs backstop looks like a prime bounce-back candidate.

LaRoche, a notoriously slow starter, ended the season with 25 homers to go along with a .277/.355/.488 line. He also had 83 RBI and 78 runs, and most importantly, 2 steals. His numbers are right in line with what one should expect from LaRoche, as he hit 25 HR and had an identical wOBA (.357) in 2008. The only year he hasn’t had a line drive percentage below 20% was his rookie year in 2004.

With LaRoche, MLB and fantasy teams know what they are getting: a .275 average with 20+ dingers and 80 RBI. No surprises here. Only problem is, the level of consistency he has is not always rewarded. Teams are more likely to go after a player with the upside for a better season than LaRoche can provide, even if it may come back to bite them in the end.

Because of this, LaRoche’s suitors this offseason will be limited. The most likely scenario is LaRoche going back to the Braves on a one or two-year deal. The Giants could also get in on the action if they decide to non-tender Ryan Garko and spend the bulk of their money in the left field market. After those two, it’s a crapshoot for LaRoche on the open market. I do not foresee any AL team pursuing LaRoche and envisioning him as their everyday first baseman.

If he leaves the Braves, his teammates will notice he is gone more off the field than on it. He was a part of the nice streak the Braves put together to end the year, but he is much better at the end of seasons, anyway. The Braves would likely replace him in house, and the numbers from whoever moves over to first will get a boost from extended playing time.

If LaRoche lands a starting gig, owners should prefer that it is with Atlanta. The talent surrounding him is better than that on the Giants, and the stadium is a little more power friendly. You know what you are getting with LaRoche, so make sure he’s starting before letting him sit on your bench next season.

Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs’ shortstop prospect is looking to make MLB incumbent Ryan Theriot nervous about his job security. The truth of the matter is that Castro currently projects to post similar numbers to that of Mr. Theriot. However, Castro has the edge defensively, so that could cause a shift to second base for the veteran infielder, which would then make Mike Fontenot expendable… perhaps after one more season.

In ‘09, Castro hit .302/.340/.391 in high-A, where he spent the majority of the season. He also received a 31-game trial at double-A and held his own as a 19-year-old infielder by hitting .288/.347/.396. He stole 22 bases in 33 attempts in high-A – showing he needs to continue working on his base running skills – but he was perfect in six tries in double-A.

Still very young and developing, Castro looks capable of providing a .280-300 average, five to 10 homers and 20-30 steals in his prime. He’ll likely never be a run producer, and he’ll need to show a little more patience (5.0 BB% in high-A) to score a lot of runs at the top of the order. ETA: Mid-2011

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
This former Yankees prospect has found a new lease on life in the Pirates organization. Tabata had a solid season in his first year in the organization… despite a rough start with some off-field controversy. Still just (supposedly) 21, Tabata began the year in double-A and hit .303/.370/.404 with and ISO of just .101 in 228 at-bats. Moved up to triple-A, the outfielder hit .276/.333/.410 in 134 at-bats. He did bump his ISO up to .134 and his strikeout rate remained good at 13.4%.

Unfortunately, Tabata was successful stealing bases in just 11 out 19 attempts. He’s never been a great base runner and his lower half continues to thicken up so we’re not likely to see a lot of steals in the future. This is a bad thing if Tabata’s power fails to develop, because it’s below-average for a corner outfielder (His likely destination in the Majors because he projects to lose range in center field). He has just one homer in 101 AFL at-bats. ETA: Mid-2010

Jonathan Gaston, OF, Houston Astros
Gaston may have excited more than a few fantasy-league managers in 2009 when he hit 35 homers (An out-of-this-world .320 ISO) and showed speed by stealing 14 bases and legging out 15 triples. He also hit 100 RBI and scored 119 runs, all of which would make him an extremely valuable fantasy prospect. However, he was playing in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball and he posted a strikeout rate of 31.7 K%.

Now, many fantasy leagues won’t penalize you for strikeouts, but they will negatively impact his batting average, which was .278 in high-A ball. During the regular season, Gaston had two very hot months (May and June) when he hit for average, but he hit below .250 in April, July and August. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .111 against southpaws in the AFL in a small-sample size, but he also struggled against them in the regular season: .228/.335/.443 (.373 BABIP). Key an eye on Gaston, but don’t get too excited just yet; the 2010 season will be a big one for the Astros prospect. ETA: Mid-to-late 2011

Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
When an organization has Mike MacDougal as its closer, you know management is praying for something better to come along. Storen, a first-round draft pick from ‘09, is currently rocketing through the minors and is on a collision course with the Nationals’ closer role, perhaps sooner rather than later. In ‘09, he held batters to a .162 batting average while posting a strikeout rate of 11.61 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.89 (although it slipped later on in the year as he tired).

Even though he posted a solid HR/9 rate of 0.47, Storen is a flyball pitcher (32.6 GB%) so he could end up being a little homer prone in the Majors. He held right-handed batters to a .111 batting average, but he was aided by a ridiculous .158 BABIP. As a fastball-slider pitcher, he may need to find a weapon to combat good left-handed hitters if he’s going to develop into an impact closer. ETA: Mid-2010

Shipped from the Reds to the Rangers in a December 2007 challenge trade for RHP Edinson Volquez, Hamilton crushed to the tune of a .385 wOBA. The lefty clubbed 32 home runs, while posting a .226 ISO and a HR/FB rate of 19.2%.

Sure, the Ballpark in Arlington played a part. According to ESPN’s park factors, Arlington has boosted run scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral ballpark from 2007-2009, while increasing HR production by 14 percent. But Hamilton was no ball park creation. He posted 29.7 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ‘08. Even accounting for the hitter-happy tendencies of his home field, Hamilton was three wins above average with the bat.

Many fantasy players ponied up a primo pick on Hamilton entering 2009. Per Fantasy Gameday’s Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report compiled back in February, Hamilton’s ADP was ninth overall.

Unfortunately, Hamilton’s various aches and pains in ‘09 had owners keeling over in anguish as well. The 28 year-old dealt with a laundry list of injuries, most notably a partially torn abdominal muscle requiring surgery in June and a pinched nerve in his lower back that effectively made him a spectator in September.

Getting just 365 PA during the season, Hamilton limped to a .321 wOBA. His ISO plunged to .158. Hamilton hit more fly balls than usual (41.8 percent, compared to about 33 percent from 2007-2008), but those extra flys died in the outfield pasture. His HR/FB rate dipped to 9.2%. Josh was below-average with the stick, with -3.6 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Hamilton still slammed fastballs, hitting them for +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. But anything off-speed flummoxed him: -0.44 runs/100 versus sliders, -2.43 against curveballs and -3.19 versus changeups.

He was extremely aggressive during his banner 2008 campaign, swinging at 34.7% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (25% MLB average) while taking a cut at 80.6% of pitches within the zone (66% MLB average). But Hamilton was even less selective in 2009. He had a 36.1 O-Swing%, with an 85.7 Z-Swing%.

Hamilton swung at more pitches within the zone than any other batter with at least 350 PA (Pablo Sandoval was a distant second, at 82.9%). However, he made contact just 80 percent of the time that he offered at a pitch over the dish (88% MLB average).

His O-Swing% was 13th-highest among hitters with 350+ PA. With Hamilton anxious to get the lumber off his shoulder (he swung at the 9th-most pitches among all batters), he posted a 65.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). Josh got behind the pitcher 0-and-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch at the sixth-highest rate in the majors. His walk rate dipped from 9.3% to 6.7%.

It’s important to keep in mind that all of these numbers came in what amounts to slightly more than a half season’s worth of PA, while Hamilton was far less than 100 percent healthy. The lack of plate discipline is somewhat troubling. But if Josh can remain upright in 2010, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can bounce back.

Bill James 2010 projections are out, and Hamilton is tabbed for a .372 wOBA. While James’ projections tend to smile upon hitters more than most other systems, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more healthy Hamilton post a wOBA somewhere in the .360-.370 range.

Hamilton presents a dilemma for fantasy owners entering 2010. On one hand, he certainly won’t cost a premium draft pick, and a healthier Hamilton has the potential to yield a high return on investment. But on the other hand, should anyone really assume that he will be healthier? Hamilton has three major league seasons under his belt. He has missed big chunks of the year in two of those three seasons.

So, are you feeling lucky? Personally, I would expect Hamilton to hit in the .360-.370 wOBA range, while serving a DL stint or two that limits him to 400-some PA. What do you guys think?

But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.

Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.

Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.

Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.