Royal Revival

All Heat, Not Enough Change

2013-06-19T11:27:00.003-05:00

In 2012, Kelvin Herrera established himself as one of the more dominant reliever in Major League Baseball. In 84.1 innings pitched he struck out 77 hitters and unintentionally walked just 21. On top of this, he ground ball percentage was an excellent 55.5% and opposing hitters hit just .250/.301/.342.

It was an excellent season and among the hesitations of Royals fans for 2013, a potential Kelvin Herrera collapse ranked low on the list. Unfortunately, that is what has happened and given the high leverage situations in which the Dominican reliever is utilized the issues are amplified. In 2013, Herrera has a 5.04 ERA. His walk rate has nearly doubled and while his strikeout rate has climbed to over a batter an inning, his home run rate has jumped from 0.43 per 9 innings to 2.88 per 9 innings.

What the hell is going on?

After Herrera's initial struggles in Atlanta, we were told that Herrera feared that he was tipping his pitches. Given the uniqueness of this series compared with the rest of his career, I couldn't help but wonder if there might have been some truth to that. However, when the struggles continued I began to notice Herrera's increased reliance on his fastball.

Now make no mistake about it, Herrera has a dynamite fastball. As a 5"11", 190 pound man it is incredible that he can consistently hit triple digits. However, these are big league hitters. If they couldn't catch up with fastballs, they wouldn't be playing at the highest level in the world. Relievers can find success with two pitches, but unless your name is Mariano* it is hard to do so with one.

The thing is that Herrera has another fantastic pitch. The gentlemen at Fangraphs even took the time to create this post as an homage to the awesomeness of the Herrera's change. Take a moment to watch these GIFs, it is worth your time.

I took a moment to test my hypothesis that in Herrera's worst outings he has been far too reliant on the fastball. Here is what I've found:

In 9 of 26 outings this season Herrera's FIP has been over 5.00
In 14 of the 26 outings Herrera has thrown change ups less than 20% of the time. (In 2012, he threw change ups in 28.7% of his pitches). Seven of these resulted in FIPs over 5.00
In 12 of the 26 outings Herrera has thrown less than 15% change ups. Six of these resulted in FIPs over 5.00
In 9 of the outings he has thrown change ups 10% of the time or less. Five of these resulted in FIPs over 5.00

According my five second correalation analysis about 12% of the variance in FIP is accounted for by a decreased use of Herrera's change up. This isn't nearly as high of a number as I anticipated. Not that we believed this to be the case, but it appears that Herrera's troubles weren't totally the result of his pitch selection.

However, looking over the data we do find a trend in which Herrera is using his change up less and less. Perhaps he feels as though his change up is to blame for the meltdown earlier in the year and to compensate he is trying to simply blow it by guys. This is just a theory, but I think very plausible considering his youth and the explosiveness of the pitch.

Taking a slightly different look at the numbers we see that when Herrera throws less than 20% change ups (has happened 14 times) he has posted a FIP over 5.00 seven times, meaning 50% of the time he doesn't mix in change ups he gets lit up like a pumpkin.

When Herrera mixes in his change up and throws it over 20% of the time, he has only had 2 outings out of 12 in which his FIP has been over 5.00. Basically, when he mixes in his change up, the odds are just one in six (16%) that he gets hit hard. This may seem like a lot, but last season this happened to Herrera in 10 of his 76 outings (13%).

This data tells me that the distinction that should be made is that not throwing a fair share of change ups will not necessarily lead to a bad outing..However, his bad outings are much rarer when change ups are mixed in on average once every five pitches. Basically, if Herrera and Perez can use his best pitch in the same way they did last season, Herrera's numbers would likely see a nice boost.

Cardinals Suck at Commemorative Cups

2013-06-12T23:41:00.001-05:00

See for yourself.

You guys might want to talk about how the Royals have won 7 of their last 8 games, or how we took 2 of 3 from the Tigers, or how Jose Valverde’s goatee is uglier than the streets of Detroit after midnight, but I have more pressing matters to write about: the HUGE gap between the Royals and Cardinals commemorative cups.

I made a recent trek up to St. Louis to visit my future graduate school, and scheduled the trip around the Royals and Cardinals series. I had never been to Busch Stadium, and as much as I want to lie about it being a piece of junk, was actually a really nice stadium. Although I was heckled by fans before, during, and after the game – I attended the game in which Aaron Crow blew a two run lead in the bottom of the 8^th inning – the stadium itself was quite impressive. Maybe not “baseball heaven” as they call it, but a nice stadium nonetheless.

But everything soon changed after I made my habitual journey to a concession stand. You see, I like to purchase commemorative cups from every stadium at which I attend a game. I have NFL cups, MLB cups, MLS cups, college, and minor league baseball cups. They are my version of shot glasses, pennants, posters, etc. that people collect when they visit many different stadiums. The cups can get pricey, but when people come over and ask if they can have a drink, they are always impressed by my collection.

So when I purchased a burger basket meal at Busch Stadium and ordered the commemorative cup, I knew that this was a good time of year for cups. After all, it should be the first cup of the year for the team, assuming they have multiple versions, and should also feature the schedule. Having gotten one from Kauffman Stadium on Opening Day, I had a certain expectation for the cup. I was sadly disappointed.

As you can see above, the Cardinals cup lacks any sort of originality, flair, or pizzazz that the Royals cup does. While the Royals cup features three players, the team’s slogan – Come to Play – and the team schedule, the Cardinals just simply has the logo and the schedule. In fact, I’m not even sure if what the Cardinals sold me should even be labeled as a commemorative cup. It’s closer to just being a cup. What is it commemorating?! Nothing.

As a commemorative cup connoisseur, this is exactly the sort of arrogance I should have expected from the Cardinals organization. It’s as if they think winning 11 World Series and being a perennial contender somehow excuses them from offering an aesthetically pleasing commemorative cup to their clientele.

No St. Louis, it does not.

Super Salvy

2013-06-11T07:47:00.000-05:00

The Royals cruised to their sixth consecutive victory last night in large part due to a triple by their 245 pound catcher, Salvador Perez. It doesn't take a genius to tell you that Salvy's presence in the lineup has a huge factor on this organization, but I was wondering just how big of an influence it has been over the last three seasons. Let's check out the numbers.

Over the past three seasons, the Royals are 78-85 when Salvador Perez makes an appearance and 77-83 (.481) when he starts the game. In that same time frame, the Royals are 172-213 good for a .447 winning percentage. Over the past three seasons, in games that Salvador Perez doesn't start, the Royals are 95-130, winning just 42 percent of their games.

When you readjust the numbers for averages over 162 games over the past three seasons, the Royals have performed like a 78 win team with Salvador in the starting lineup and a 68 win team without him. It doesn't take a Math major to realize that this is a ten win swing.

This season alone, the Royals have played like an 88 win team with him starting and a 43 win team with him out. If the Royals can keep this up and Perez can start 90 of the team's final 101 games, the Royals will finish 82-80. Obviously, this isn't the record that we all hoped for entering the season, but that would at least make it a fun summer.

The numbers say that Perez isn't that valuable, but it is close. In 163 career games, he has accumulated a 5.2 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR. There is no doubt he is one of the most important players in the organization, but with all the disappointment in Hosmer and Moustakas it seems as though Perez's success has been overlooked.

Do me a favor. Next time you hear someone complain about the Royals inability to develop superstars that hit the ground running, be sure to point to the guy wearing the Royals mask behind home plate.

Mike Moustakas is not very unlucky.

2013-06-05T22:26:00.000-05:00

During this part of the year baseball fans are trying to figure out which struggling players are lost, and which are simply unlucky. The easiest way for people to quickly determine how lucky or unlucky a player has been is by using the BABIP (Batting Average Balls in Play) metric. While some people will maintain a higher BABIP based on line drive rate or speed, the average BABIP is right around .300 around the majors.

I wanted to see how LD% and IFF% (infield fly percentage) affected BABIP, so I took players in the top and bottom 30 players in MLB for both K% and IFF% from 2012. That left me with a list of 91 players. I found the K%, IFF%, BABIP, LD%, K%+IFF% and LD%-IFF% for each player during 2012, thus far in 2013, and for their respective careers. It was not the most shocking revelation to find a correlation between BABIP and LD%-IFF%. Of the top 20 LD%-IFF% of this sample the average BABIP was .337. Of the lowest twenty of the same stat from this sample the average BABIP was .291. It helped me understand the Chris Davis breakout a bit more, as his miniscule pop out rate helps hide his above average K rate, and at the same time his line drive rate looks better compared to how few pop outs he commits (hence his .343 career BABIP). It also provided more reason to me how players like Derek Jeter, Shin-shoo Choo and Dexter Fowler are able to maintain career BABIPS over .350.

This was a nice way to spend a few hours of my night, but how does it pertain to Mike Moustakas? Well, if there was a loser from this experiment in numbers it was Moose. Moose has the third highest IFF% of anyone since 2011 (only Brendan Ryan and Chris Young are worse). Of the players sampled in my sample, only the unquestionably disappointing Justin Smoak has a lower career BABIP of .262 compared to Moustakas’ at .267. In fact, that .267 mark is 16^th worst in the majors since 2011. That is obviously quite a bit better than his .190 mark thus far this season, but still well below league average. In terms of his LD%-IFF% Moustakas was the only player sampled to have a career IFF% higher than his career FB%. He was one of only three major leaguers this season with a negative LD%-IFF% (the struggling B.J. Upton and Josh Willingham being the other two).

This is not a good sign for Moustakas, and even though his IFF% is down a percent from 2012 (17.6 to 16.7), his LD% is down about 3.5% to a puny 12.8%. Simply put, Moustakas is not making good contact right now. That being said, he is making contact. Moustakas has the 28^th best K% in the league at 13.7 percent. But with his IFF% of 16.7 he is getting out on the K or pop out over 30% of the time. As far as I’m concerned a pop up is as bad as a strike out, and with this massive pop out rate he is in the top third in the league in K%+IFF%; higher than strike out guys like Jason Kipnis, Dexter Fowler, Alfonso Soriano and Austin Jackson.

These figures combined with Moustakas’ declining ISO means that there is very little that Moustakas is doing right at the plate right now. The only positive I see is his low strike out rate, but even that has a chance to regress as the year rolls on. The infield flies and coupled with not hitting the ball with any authority gives me pause that we will see much improvement in 2013. My previous two paragraphs were admittedly somewhat jumbled, but I think that these stats have painted a picture as to what is wrong with Moose. His lack of both speed and line drives, along with his career long problem of hitting pop ups in the infield is going to continue to kill his average. His power has seemed to have left him with only four long balls, while on defense Moustakas has a positive UZR, but his seven errors have add to the struggles. Mike Moustakas may well be the 2015 version of Domonic Brown, but as of right now Moustakas seems lost, and it sure looks like he is a long ways away from being the player Royal fan’s expect him to be.

Prepping for the Draft: Braden Shipley & the Clear top 8

2013-06-04T13:00:00.000-05:00

On Thursday the Royals will make the third selection of the 2013 First Year Player draft. It just so happens that the #8 prospect in Baseball America's top 500 draft prospects for this year, is a pitcher who bares a striking resemblance to the Kansas City's first round pick from a season ago.

After Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, the top college arm available in the draft is Nevada's Braden Shipley. Like Kyle Zimmer from a year ago, Shipley offers the benefit of being tested against college competition, but also has the limited wear on his arm thanks to the fact that he too is converted infielder. For better or for worse, the Royals organization prefers to develop arms themselves and as a converted infielder, they would have the opportunity to do so.

Shipley also offers the type of three pitch mix that the Royals organization prefers. He boasts a fastball that sits 93-96 sometimes touching 98, one of the draft's best change ups, and a work in progress curveball that should one day be an average offering. This is the mix that the Royals hammer into their young prospects and the same three pitch mix that excited the Royals enough to select Kyle Zimmer last June.

I am pretty confident that if Shipley is available to the Royals at eight they will select him. However, there are also rumors that both the Cleveland Indians and Miami Marlins are hot on the scent of the member of the non-Hangover Wolfpack. Many suspect Cleveland to go the route of Colin Moran, but Miami could be the snag. They are also said to be considered high school catcher Reese McGuire as well as Mississippi outfielder Hunter Renfroe.

Shipley isn't necessarily my top choice, but I do find him to be an attractive option. My fear is that if Shipley doesn't last until the Royals selection, they will be so locked in on pitching that they will reach deeper into their draft board and pass up on superior prospects. Outside of Gray and Appel, I see no other college pitching prospect worthy of a top 10 selection. In order to protect the Royals from themselves, it might be the safest bet to root for Shipley to slide.

Additional Note: In Bob Dutton's article regarding the draft in today's KC Star, he throws in this little nuggest...

"All signs, however, point to a preference for a pitcher unless one of two highly regarded prep outfielders from Georgia - Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows - unexpectedly remain on the board."

This is the first connection between the Royals and those two players. I find it especially interesting, because based on my readings there is a strong chance that at least one of the two remains when the Royals are on the clock. It would be very surprising if Grey, Appel, Kris Bryant, or Kohl Stewart last past the top 5.Given that pretty consistently Shipley, Frazier, Meadows, and Moran have ranked as the next four prospects to go it seems likely that the Royals will have the opportunity to pick one of the four.

Based on the mock drafts that I have looked over, the next grouping of prospects are up in the air. So based off of industry consensus, the Royals find themselves in a decent spot of having the guaranteed opportunity to select one of the top 8 players in the draft. This brings me back to my initial fear; that Shipley will go in the top 7 and the Royals will reach for a pitcher in order to fit their pre-draft plan.

Prepping for the Draft: Thoughts on Sean Manaea

2013-06-03T10:40:00.002-05:00

When it comes to the 2013 Amateur Draft the most intriguing prospect could be Indiana State left hander Sean Manaea. This is not to say that the Sycamore is the most highly regarded prospect on the board as that honor clearly belongs to either Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray or Stanford's Mark Appel. However, eight months ago, this wasn't so obvious and many considered Manaea a candidate to be selected in the top spot of the draft.

According to Baseball America, during the Cape Cod League last summer Manaea featured a mid-90s fastball that dominated hitters, allowing them to hit just .119 against him in 52 innings of work. Unfortunately for the lefty his velocity has been down to 88-93 all Spring and he hasn't even maintained that throughout many of his starts.The combination of that and injuries haveresulted in many to predict that Manaea could slide on draft day, with some even speculating that as a Boras client he could steal a page from the Mark Appel playbook and return to school for another year.

Now, there is no way that I think the Royals should take a chance on him with the #8 overall pick in the draft. No, there are several other options that I would be much more comfortable with/excited for in the slot. However, thanks to the powers at be, the Royals have been awarded with an asset that no team has ever had before. On July 18, 2012, the Royals were crowned champions of the first ever Competitive Balance Lottery.*

*First we are the champions of the competitive balance lottery then we lead the league in fewest home runs. Can life get better?

Thanks to the Royals good fortune and small market, this weekend the Royals will get to make selections at 8, 34, and 46. Perhaps even more importantly given the new collective bargaining agreement, the Royals will also receive the additional bonus pool allotment that is assigned to each of those draft slots. As a result, the Royals have the 6th largest bonus for this year's draft.

Now back to Manaea. Here's what Jim Callis had to say about the 6-5, 215 pounder in his latest mock draft:

"Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea remains the draft's biggest wild card. He was a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick before his stuff dipped and he endured ankle, hip and shoulder issues this spring. Teams don't have a good feel for his health or his signability, and I believe the most likely scenario is one of the clubs at the top of the draft with a large bonus pool will gamble on him after the first round."

There are only four teams that have larger bonus pools than Kansas City that also pick higher in the first round. Those teams are the Houston Astros, the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies, and the Florida Marlins. The Astros have already proven to have the strategy of spreading bonus money around to players with signability concerns, but last year they featured a strong high school focus. Theo Epstein of the Cubs drafted a similar player to Manaea in his time in Boston when he selected Anthony Ranaudo with the 39th pick of the 2010 draft.

What is important to note, is that while these teams select ahead of the Royals in the first round, the Royals will have the first shot at Manaea following the first round. The only teams with a second pick before Kansas City and a bonus pool larger than $7 million are the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees.

The Pittsburgh Pirates select 9th and 14th, but would they be willing to gamble a selection that high on Manaea, especially after they were burnt a year ago with Appel? I find this doubtful. The Yankees, however, select 32 and 33 and could be a real threat. Ultimately, only time will tell if they roll the dice.

Thanks to the Competitive Draft Lottery, the Royals are in a very good position come draft day. Should they take a chance on the Missouri Valley Southpaw? I can't say, but it is definitely an intriguing proposition and they clearly fit the profile for the type of team that will eventually select him.

Below Replacement Level General Manager

2013-05-27T11:41:00.000-05:00

Well obviously this hasn't gone to plan. After a 17-10 start, we were told repeatedly by Rex the Wonderdog that the Royals could simply play .500 the rest of the way and it would be a successful season.* Never mind the fact that .500 the rest of the way would result in only 84 or 85 wins, which likely won't be enough for a playoff berth. Instead, the Royals have went into a tailspin and have now won just 4 of their last 20 games.

* Considering how close Rex appears to be with all of the players on the team, you have to assume that a similar sentiment was being whispered in their ears. "Eric, don't worry about one loss. We just need to play .500 the rest of the way. Drive the bus, you stinky piece of cheese!" There's a winning culture for you.

Now given that most of us predicted the Royals to be a 78-85 win team, we all should have realized that there would be rough patches. However, I don't think any of expected a stretch like the one we are currently on.**

** Good thing the Royals acquired a stopper. It is almost humorous hen people say things like there won't be any long skids since the Royals have a stronger rotation. Well what people should realize, is that one win doesn't all of the sudden right a sinking ship. Just because the Royals haven't lost 12 in a row, doesn't mean they are incapable of two week long stretches of awful baseball.

At this point, it seems clear to me that the Royals need to make a change. I do not believe that an individual should lose their job due to poor performance over a 20 game stretch. However, I do think that a 20 game stretch can highlight deeper more sustaining problems. What seems blatantly obvious to me is that Ned Yost is ill-equipped to be a Major League manager.

The offense hasn't done Yost any favors, but that should not serve as a blindfold to the decisions that he has made. In virtually every way, he has shown an impotence when it comes to leveraging his talent in the ways to make this roster as successful as possible. There are the obvious things, like not utilizing platoon advantages in pinch hit situations, bringing in Bruce Chen with less than 2 outs and a man on third (a fireable offense in its own right, with a rested pen), and batting Chris Getz leadoff.

There are also other inefficiencies hat are not unique to Ned Yost, but an industry wide problem when it comes to managing (continuing to bat one of the team's worst hitters in the most important spot in the order, batting the team's best hitter's in one of the less important spots in the order, proper leveraging of the bullpen, etc.)*** Finally, there are the more frustrating aspects of Yost that come from just being an educated fan. The regular patronizing post game interviews and the excuses.

*** It has been ten years ago since Moneyball became a top-selling book. Since that time virtually every front office has been infiltrated by analytics and individuals with statistical backgrounds. At what point does this revolution hit the dugout? Joe Maddon of the Rays is already applying these principles with huge amounts of success, but even Maddon has a playing background. I'm talking about sabermetric types finding roles as bench coaches or even managers. This is a topic for another discussion.

Here is the problem with changing managers, Dayton Moore has in no way shown that he deserves the opportunity to hire a third manager. Since June 8, 2006, Moore's first official day as Royals General Manager, the Kansas City Royals are 487-636 (.434). Over 162 games, that is good for a 70-92 record. This is Dayton Moore's average performance over the course of his seven years at the helm. In the history of the Royals franchise, they have posted a lower winning percentage just twelve times. Three and a half of those have occurred in Dayton Moore's tenure.

Industry wide, just two teams have won fewer games than the Kansas City Royals since June 8, 2006: the Houston Astros and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Astros have intentionally hit rock bottom over the last two plus seasons. The Pirates appear to finally be getting it together. In fact, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that by the end of May, the Royals could have the worst record in all of baseball since Dayton Moore took the helm. Does this sound like a guy who deserves to hire a third manager?

Despite the poor performance on the field, Dayton Moore is the ninth longest tenured general manager in the game. The only general manager with a longer tenure than Dayton Moore and a lower winning percentage since Dayton Moore was hired, is Dan O'Dowd of the Colorado Rockies who in his 8th full season took the Rockies to the World Series.

This brings me back to my final thought, Dayton Moore is under contract through 2014, which would be his 8th full season in charge. As unfortunate as it is, I have a hard time imagining him not at least being given this season to show improvement. Quite frankly, all signs seem to point to 2014 as the year of final judgement. If things don't come together by that time, Dayton will have no one to blame but himself as he was the one who honed in on a two year window when he acquired James Shields from Tampa Bay.

I don't believe that Dayton Moore was a useless general manager. I also don't feel as though Kansas City has tread water for seven years or has taken a step back. I believe that Dayton Moore did a fine job of improving the infrastructure and rebuilt a farm system through the aggressive acquisition of high end talent. The development of that talent and Major League roster construction has been a huge problem.

For me, Dayton Moore is now a replacement level general manager. The Royals are at a point, where that potential needs to be turned into talent and where roster construction has to be a strong skill of the individual in charge. Since neither of these areas are strengths of the current administration, I see no risk in the opportunity to bring in a new GM. In fact, I would be incredibly excited to see what a forward thinking General Manager could do with the talent that is currently in the organization. Until that time, the Royals will be below replacement level at third base, second base, right field, in the dugout and in the front office. Fortunately, for the front office they won't even realize it.

Royals Frontrunner for Best European Prospect...EVER

2013-05-20T21:15:00.000-05:00

According to Baseball America the Royals are the frontrunner for arguably the best European prospect ever. That prospect is 15 year old SS Marten Gasparini. Here are a few notable quotes from Ben Badler of Baseball America.

Gasparini, who turns 16 on May 24, is 6 feet, 175 pounds, hits from both sides of the plate and is an outstanding athlete with 65-70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. -Ben Badler

"Yet Gasparini isn’t just good for a European player—he’s one of the premier prospects in the entire international market." -Ben Balder

"He’s a well-above-average athlete with really good agility and really good body control,” said one international scouting director. “It’s a good body on an athlete with tools. He brings a lot to the table. Even if he goes to center field, he profiles there at a premium position. The competition level in Europe is more like middle-of-the-road high school in the United States and he’s not facing the 92-94 mph some of the Dominicans face, but he hits in games. He’s a really interesting guy." -Anonymous International Scouting Director

While Dodgers vice president of international scouting Bob Engle made the Mariners a leader in signing European prospects until he left in October and the Cubs have also shown interest, most sources believe the Royals are the frontrunners to sign Gasparini. -Ben Badler

"As soon as I saw him at 13, I knew we had a chance to create a superior player if we could work with him for a couple years." -Bill Holmberg

After a year in the academy, Gasparini went to Chihuahua, Mexico to play shortstop for Italy in the 15U World Championship, a tournament heavily attended by international scouting directors. While Italy went just 3-5 in the tournament, Gasparini shined, hitting .419/.514/.710 by going 13-for-31 with a double, four triples and six stolen bases in six tries. -Ben Badler

"The player who he reminds of most is Derek Jeter,” Holmberg said. “Now I realize those are some big shoes to fill and they are definitely different in their swings and some skills, but I think they are similar in their actions. I have seen Marten make some plays on (defense) that are more advanced than what should be the case considering the age on his identity card." -Bill Holmberg

It's very good to see the Royals scouting all over the world for elite talent. Even if the talent doesn't pan out the Royals are searching high and low and willing to take the chance and put the dollar sign on the muscle. IF the Royals were to sign Gasparini, it would add to an already crowded group of prospects at the SS position in the Royals farm system which include: Humberto Arteaga, Ramon Torres, Jack Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, and Orlando Calixte.

As far as I'm concerned the more SS prospects the better, especially if this one is classified to be elite like scouts have said. As a Royals fan, there are things that go on during the season that frustrate us all. I know I'm one of the worst at seeing all the negatives but when I see reports like this from Baseball America, these get me excited. MAYBE one of these prospects will eventually pan out and be a superstar player like the Royals need.

Coming to the Rex-cue: Defending Rex Hudler

2013-05-15T13:51:00.000-05:00

Yeah, that title went over about as well as one of Rex’s jokes on the air, but guess what, I don’t care. Rex can make as many failed jokes or awkward statements or five minute long discussions involving a bug being squashed that he wants and I won’t mind it. Let me clarify a little bit: I won’t mind it as much as the sensationalism, venom, and all-around pessimism I see on my twitter timeline every evening the Royals are playing.

“Jeremy Guthrie is still out there. This is as clueless a managerial performance I have ever seen. #Royals”

“This is absolutely unreal. Ned Yost should be fired right this very minute.”

“Oh. My. God. Guthrie is back out for the 7^th. We have a freaking idiot managing this team.”

“These two – Hosmer and Moustakas – are cooked. Any replacement would provide roughly the same value.”

These are just a handful of the hundreds of posts that were tweeted last night about the Royals vs Angels game, and there is no end in sight. Never-mind that it’s mid-May and the Royals are currently above .500; if you only followed twitter, then you would think the Royals have had 36 perfect games thrown against them. Maybe it’s because Royals fans feel like they really have something to lose this season that is making them spew negativity everywhere, or the fact that most of us don’t know what it’s like to see a winner, but regardless, Royals fans far and wide are putting their seemingly endless disdain for anything that resembles a loss, a run given up, or a hit not recorded in 140 characters or less and at a feverish pace.

The thing I hate the most about all of the pessimism is that it’s so dang contagious.

It’s easy to criticize Ned Yost, or Jeff Francoeur, Chris Getz or Mike Moustakas. It’s easy to write off players as busts. It’s easy to tweet out your every emotion on twitter about the lack of power we have at second, or how dumb it is that Dyson isn’t playing every day. When you see Royals twitterverse doing a collective face-palm every time a runner is thrown out trying to steal or every time we ground out on the first pitch, it’s easy to join in on it. I’ve done it. You’ve done it. But what did it accomplish? Did it make me/you feel better? No.

That’s where Rex Hudler comes in. Does he strike me as an intelligent guy? Nope. Is he the best broadcaster I've ever watched? Not even close. Did I wish that Billy Butler’s 500^th RBI had been commemorated with something a little more elegant than “a Billy Bomb with Barbecue sauce!”? Sure. But in all of Hudler’s faults, there is a simple truth: he is nothing if not optimistic.

Genuine optimism: that is what Hudler brings to my television screen during Royals games. I don’t believe it’s fake, and I don’t believe he knows any other way to broadcast. When a guy strikes out, Hud says it was just a really good pitch. When our pitcher gives up a solo shot, Hud makes sure to point out that no one was on base. Hud is exhaustingly positive, but it is the only thing that makes twitter bearable for those three hours. His optimism helps fight the wrist-slitting, we-suck, mentality I can’t help but pull up on my computer screen during games.

Royals fans have more right than most to complain. I understand that. I’m a part of that. But if I had to choose between listening to Hud or reading Royals fan tweets during the games, I would choose Hud. Rex is an oasis of positivism and amusing ignorance in a desert of nonconstructive disapproval and saber metric dry heaving. While venting frustration is a fan’s prerogative, it’s also Hud’s ~~job~~ ~~responsibility~~ pleasure to put the Royals players and coaches in the best light possible. And while it might be annoying every now and then, it’s also comic relief and an excuse to tweet about something other than the Royals’ deficiencies.

Do I believe Rex is an idiot? Absolutely. But I also think that of 85% of the Royals twitterverse. Hud makes the mistakes seem less important, the at-bats less disastrous; and why shouldn't he: we have a winning record!!! And, perhaps most importantly, where would Royals nation be at without Rexisms? So next time you start to think about criticizing Hud, think about this instead:

Can you sneak a piece of cheese by a hungry rat?

Optimizing the Lineup Using The Book

2013-05-10T21:25:00.001-05:00

A lot of fuss has been made over the Royals lineup over the past couple of weeks. Personally, I think lineup discussions are often much ado about nothing. Everyone hits and lineup discussions tend to take too much a what have you done for me lately. However, lineup optimization is not without value. In fact, according to The Book; Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, the perfect lineup could result in upwards of 15 more runs over the course of season. This is not a huge difference but could account for an additional 1 or 2 wins over the course of a season.

Let's simply take a moment to apply The Book's findings to the Royals roster to determine what the most productive lineup would be for Kansas City. Before we get too deep into the application, let's jot down a few important notes on the construction of the lineup:

"The wOBA of the #2 and #4 hitters should be about the same."
When deciding between these two slots, the player with more extra base hits goes at #4 and the player with more walks at #2.
The #2 and #4 spots are more valuable than the #3 spot.
The #5 spot gets more value out of singles, doubles, triples, and walks than the #3 spot.
The #3 spot gets more out of home runs than the #5 spot.
The #5 spot should feature a better hitter than the #3 spot.
Your worst four hitters go in spots #6 through #9 in descending order.
The leadoff hitter is similar in value to the #2 and #5 hitters.
The leadoff hitter receives more values from walks and less from home runs.
The overall quality of the leadoff hitter should be similar to that of the #2 hitter.
#2 hitter's preferred outs are strikeouts.
Clean up hitter' preferred outs are productive.
A double play prone hitter's negative affect can be mitigated in the leadoff spot.

I think the first key takeaway, is that the perception that the #3 spot is the most important is simply not true. In fact, the three hole is actually probably the fifth most valuable spot in the order. Are you still a fan of Gordon's new spot?

Now one more point to make before sketching out lineups. This information can be applied in different ways. Unfortunately, pieces don't fit perfectly into the above puzzle so we will just have to do the best we can. Let's get to work on this.

Eric Hosmer - With three batting order spots being more important than the rest, and only two hitters clearly better than the pack, someone gets put into this role. The leadoff hitter receives more value than the other five spots from singles and walks, but less value from home runs. Eric Hosmer may not be hitting with power, but he is getting on base.
Alex Gordon - There is reason to believe that the second spot in the order is the most important in the lineup. Billy isn't a good fit, due to his propensity of double plays. Strikeouts are the ideal out result in this spot, and that also happens to be Gordon's flaw as a hitter.
Lorenzo Cain - This spot is tough for me. The #5 spot is more valuable, but you also don't want three lefties in a row. For that reason I am putting Cain here.
Billy Butler - With Gordon hitting second, Butler is perfect in the clean up spot.
Mike Moustakas - I think Moustakas is heating up. I put him in this spot.
Salvador Perez - Out of the remaining options, he is clearly the best hitter.
Jarrod Dyson/ Jeff Francoeur
Alcides Escobar
Elliot Johnson/Chris Getz

Another option could be:

Alex Gordon
Lorenzo Cain
Mike Moustakas
Billy Butler
Eric Hosmer
Salvador Perez
Jarrod Dyson/Jeff Francoeur
Alcides Escobar
Elliot Johnson/Chris Getz

Ultimately, there are justifications for moving guys around quite a bit and this is what makes lineup creation so hard. If there was a simple formula, it would be easy to point and give an answer. Based off The Book's findings, here are a few takeaways when applied to the Royals:

Neither Gordon or Butler should be seeing time in the much overvalued three slot.
Billy Butler shouldn't hit second either due to that spot's susceptibility to double plays.
Alcides Escobar doesn't get on base enough to justify hitting leadoff.

I'm not saying that either of these lineups are the answer. Again, I don't think there is much additional value provided even my an optimum lineup. Alex Gordon in the #3 spot has worked out for the last two games, but over the course of an entire season, the analytics state the Royals will lose value with him in that spot. Hopefully, the lineup starts to hit and we all can stop suggesting lineup changes as a means to fix the offense.

Prospect Crush: Miguel Almonte

2013-05-08T20:07:00.003-05:00

After a tedious but informative (for myself at least) look at the top 30 prospects in the Royals system, I found myself very excited about the upside of Miguel Almonte. This is despite the fact that coming into the season Almonte had all of 88 professional innings over the past two years. Almonte has continued to impress coming into the season, making the jump from rookie to A ball seem easy over his first six starts. Almonte has continued to display good control (2.93 BB/9) and the ability to strike out batters (8.51 K/9). His 3.82 ERA and 3.23 FIP are impressive for a young man who turned just 20 years old a month ago.

Almonte’s May 1^st performance in which he allowed just one hit and struck out nine over 6 innings netted him a spot on the May 3^rd edition of Baseball America’s Hot Sheet. He followed up on that start nicely yesterday, throwing 6.1 innings while allowing only one run and netting seven strike outs. The right handed Almonte is commanding his fastball that can hit 96 on the radar but usually sits at 92-93, and is said to have a plus changeup. He has plenty of time to work on refining his secondary pitches, as he has youth on his side.

There is a lot to like in Almonte. For example, judging by his Hot Sheet photo it seems that the youthful Almonte has decided to try his luck with a mustache. That’s the kind of bold decision I like to see from a promising prospect. On an actual baseball note, he already has two plus pitches and a superb command as he allowed only 13 walks in 77 innings last season. Even though it is somewhat pointless to compare him to a player that has never seen the majors, it does seem like he could be the Royals 2013 version of Yordano Ventura. While they certainly have a different skill set, there is a clear correlation in terms of success+age+level. Speaking of Ventura, the 21 year old righty has decided that the jump to AA is not at all difficult, as he has dominated over his first 30 innings for Northwest Arkansas. Ventura is in the top five in ERA (1.83) and strike-outs (43) in the Texas League. While any long time Royal fan has to be jaded by the lack of success from high profile pitching prospects over the last several years, these two arms just may be a cure for this cynicism.

Identifying Luke Hochevar's role moving forward

2013-05-08T19:24:00.000-05:00

Coming into the season the Kansas City Royal’s bullpen was supposed to be a strongpoint of the team. With Greg Holland pitching decent but not great and Kelvin Herrera having major home run issues (3.77 HR/9), there could be some major shake-ups among the bullpen as we move into to the summer. While arms like Aaron Crow and to a lesser extent Tim Collins bring some intrigue, I find myself thinking that there is legitimate hope for Luke Hochevar to become a major impact in the pen for a team in the Royals who cannot afford to lose games late if they hope to be a playoff contender.

On the surface Hochevar, who is making 4.65 million dollars this season, has been impressive in the early going, posting a 0.79 ERA with 12 K’s over his first 8 appearances (11.1 IP). While this is obviously a very small sample, Hoch does appear to be a different pitcher than he was as a starter for the past five years. While you should expect an increase in velocity, Hochevar have displayed an impressive increase of velocity of almost 2 MPH difference, throwing his heater at 94.5 MPH. He has also increased velocity and usage of his cutter while essentially dropping his slider from his repertoire. His fastball has been effective this year, which may be part of the reason that he has shown good command thus far, allowing only three walks during the first month.

Beyond velocity, the second biggest change that I noticed was his severe drop in ground ball rate. While a) this is not necessarily a good thing and b) there is a major small sample caveat to go with this rate; Hochevar can sacrifice ground balls if he continues to strike people out and limit home runs. Hochevar has only given up one home run thus far this season, allowing Alexei Ramirez to go deep on opening day. Another reason I am less concerned about his miniscule 29.3% ground ball rate is his unsustainable but still impressive 23.1% infield fly rate. This means that Hoch is either striking out or inducing an infield fly to half of the batters he faces, and as far as I am concerned these are equally successful outcomes as base runners will not advance on either result. This insane infield fly rate can also help explain his 100% LOB% as well as his low .222 BABIP (his career BABIP is .302) as something other than plain luck.

While it may be foolish to trust Hochevar as a reliever moving forward I find myself convinced that it is possible. Ned Yost has said that Hochevar or Crow could see save chances on days that Greg Holland is unavailable, and I could see the Royals trusting a guy like Hochevar in some high leverage situations down the road in what the Royals hope is a very exciting season. In fact, it would not shock me to see Hochevar manning the closer role at some point, especially if Holland and Herrera show that they are not suited for that role this year.

New Rotation Arrivals and Early Success

2013-05-06T19:48:00.000-05:00

Even after today’s loss against the Chicago White Sox, the Royals have had a great start of the season compiling a 17-11 record. One of the major reasons for the shiny record is the arrival of Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. The two combine for a 7-1 record and have stabilized a rotation desperate for consistency. So what should Royals fans expect from these two for the rest of the season?

Jeremy Guthrie:

Jeremy Guthrie has been a very productive pitcher since getting traded for Jonathan Sanchez in a welcome move away from Coors Field. A solid second half netted him a 3yr/25 million dollar deal with Kansas City this offseason (which I admittedly was not a fan of, but I was a fan of the Joe Blanton signing, so I clearly have some issues). So far Jeremy Guthrie has provided six solid starts to begin the year compiling 4 wins and a shiny 2.40 ERA. His 1.11 WHIP is down from his career mark of 1.30 and he is inducing ground balls at his best rate since 2006. Pitch/FX data tells me that he is throwing more sinkers this season, which may be part of his rising ground ball rate. He is also a horse in present day terms, averaging nearly 7 innings per start, which is important to a team with surprising problems in their bullpen.

Of course fans have to expect general regression, but what are Guthrie’s warning signs? The first number that jumped out at me was his 93.3 LOB%. The average left on base percentage for pitchers is generally around 70-72%, wich Guthrie’s sitting at 73% for his career. While pitchers can leave an uncanny number of runners left on base, this number should regress closer to the mean as the season rolls on. While Guthrie displays good control issuing 11 walks in his first 41 innings, his control is not elite, and he will likely never be more than a slightly below average pitcher in terms of strikeouts. Lastly, Guthrie has allowed 6 home runs during his first six starts, and I think it is fair to expect him to continue to give up the long ball throughout the season. Assuming he starts 30+ times, he will probably give up around the same number of homers.

The 34 year old Guthrie should certainly prove to be worth his 2013 salary as he should continue to be a workhorse who has proven durable over the course of his career. I do not think that this will be a renaissance year for Guthrie, however. He doesn’t seem to be doing anything significantly different or better than any other year skill wise, and I would expect his ERA to wind up closer to his 4.47 current FIP than a sub 4 showing by year end.

Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana came over to the Royals in a trade last winter, but I look at it more as a 1 year 12 million dollar contract from the Royals perspective, as they traded a prospect unlikely to ever reach the majors and somewhat surprisingly agreed to pay Santana twelve of the thirteen million dollars that he is owed. Santana, like Guthrie, has made the Royals look smart during the first month of the season. Santana’s ERA sits at an even 2.00, with similarly impressive 3.24 and 3.23 FIP and xFIP, respectively. His 6.2 K/BB is good for sixth best in the entire major leagues. Because of his microscopic BB% and WHIP, Santana has been able to average over 7 innings per start. One of the biggest differences is home runs. Santana will always give up a decent amount of homers, but he has not surprisingly cut his homeruns allowed almost in half after giving up nearly 2 homeruns per nine in 2012.

What else is he doing different from last year? First of all, his fastball has been much more productive. I am not sure if he is throwing his fastball any differently, but it certainly doesn’t rank as the worst fastball in baseball as it did last season. He is throwing it at the same MPH of 91.7, but it hasn’t been nearly as volatile as it were last year. Santana is hardly walking anyone, but during his ‘good’ years he has displayed good control. While it won’t last at this pace he should maintain good control. While is walk rate would rank as the best of his career, his strikeout rate of 7.74 would rank as his best since 2008. His average K/9 over the past four years is just under four, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that he is able to maintain is K-rate and keep it around 7.5+ for the entire season.

What am I worried about going forward? Like Guthrie, I worry about his 89% LOB%. Some of these runs are eventually going to score, but no one is expecting Santana’s ERA to stay at 2.00. His batted balls are consistent with his career norms and his home runs have stabilized compared to a horrid 2012. I do expect Santana to continue to give up home runs, however, and he could push the 30+ home run mark over 30 starts, even if he is aided by home ball park and pitching against the AL Central.

To me, Santana’s success depends on his K/BB. If he can maintain a top ten ratio in the game, we could see a pitcher providing tons of innings and an ERA around 3.50. If they return to what he produced in recent history, we could see his ERA spike somewhere between the high 3 ERA's he posted in 2010 & 2011 and his ERA that hovered over 5 in 2009 and 2012. I would suspect it to be closer to his 2010/11 numbers. Santana is a streaky pitcher, which also could give pessimists reason to be concerned, but overall Royals fans should be very excited with what Santana has shown them to start the year.

The Ultimate Prospect List

2013-04-03T21:25:00.001-05:00

In a post yesterday, Chris St. John of SB Nation took a moment to compile the ultimate list of baseball's top prospects. The composite list included the prospect rankings of Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, John Sickels, and five others. He then assigned points and ranked all prospects considering their prevalence across multiple prospect ranking platforms.

Here's a breakdown of the Royals prospects to make the top 190:

Kyle Zimmer - 28

Peak - 18 (Fangraphs)
Low - 43 (Baseball Prospect Nation & John Sickels)

Bubba Starling - 56

Peak - 26 (Jonathan Mayo)
Low - 104 (John Sickels)

Yordano Ventura - 83

Peak - 59 (Jonathan Mayo)
Low - NR (2 Lists)

Adalberto Mondesi - 105

Peak - 53 (Baseball Prospect Nation)
Low - NR (7 Lists)

Miguel Almonte - 159

Peak - 100 (Baseball Prospect Nation)
Low - NR (10 Lists)

Cheslor Cuthbert - 169

Peak - 123 (Baseball Prospect Nation)
Low - NR (10 Lists)

Jorge Bonifacio - 172

Peak - 128 (Baseball Prospect Nation)
Low - NR (10 Lists)

Now here's a look at the rest of the division:

Chicago - 2 prospects

Courtney Hawkins - 71
Carlos Sanchez - 127

Cleveland - 4 prospects

Francisco Lindor - 16
Trevor Bauer - 19
Dorssys Paulino - 90
Ronny Rodriguez - 157

Detroit - 3 prospects

Nick Castellanos - 25
Bruce Rondon - 102
Avisail Garcia - 116

Minnesota - 3 prospects

Miguel Sano - 15
Byron Buxton - 17
Jose Berrios - 169

Finally, in case you are curious, Wil Myers ranked 4th on the list and Jake Odorizzi ranked 68th.You can view Chris St. John's post full post here.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals Preview

2013-04-03T09:56:00.004-05:00

Projected Lineup

CF - Brett Eibner

3B - Rey Navarro

SS - Orlando Calixte

1B - Matt Fields

C - Manny Pina

RF - Yem Prades

LF - Brian Fletcher

DH - Mitch Canham

2B - Alex McClure

Rotation

Noel Arguelles

Jason Adam

Sugar Ray Marimon

Yordano Ventura

J.C. Sulbaran

Bench

C - Juan Graterol, IF Whit Merrifield, OF Roman Hernandez

Bullpen

Yeliar Castro, Sam Runion, John Keck, Edwin Carl, Andy Ferguson, Santiago Garrido, Brooks Pounders,

Matt Ridings, Nick Rogers, Cole White

Notes on your Northwest Arkansas Naturals:

The lineup is definitely a buzz-kill to begin the 2013 season. There are a couple names to keep track of, but mainly, if you want to see a good hitting lineup, don't expect anything special. Brett Eibner returns to his native homeland of Arkansas, which should excite the people of Springdale down to Fayetteville. Last season with the Blue Rocks, Eibner was unsuccessful in hitting above the Mendoza-Line, hitting a depressing .196, but managed to smack 15 HR and bring in 53 RBI. Since 2007, only 10 Royals minor leaguers have hit double-digit HR in Wilmington, so Brett obviously brings some pop. Unfortunately, he has one more season before he's Rule V Draft eligible, and if he doesn't take drastic steps in improving his hitting, he could easily get claimed in the draft.

Infielders Rey Navarro and Orlando Calixte will be others to watch. Rey, 23, returns to NW Arkansas for a 3rd consecutive season. Navarro will not hit for power, but has the ability to make decent contact, as he's hit .250 and .271 the past 2 seasons, respectively. His stint with Omaha in 2012 was a nice surprise as he hit .300 in 60 plate appearances. Rey is known for the glove, and since Calixte has arrived, he will have to make a move, most likely to 3B. Orlando Calixte, 21, cracks our Top 10 prospect list as a 21 year old SS. In 2012 for Wilmington, he posted a line of .281/.326/.426. Like Navarro, Calixte is known for his play at SS and has tremendous range, but committed 46 errors at short last season in 556 opportunities. Orlando is athletic enough to make a move elsewhere in the field, and if the fielding doesn't improve, a change in position could be inevitable.

If you want to see some good pitching, you've come to the right place. Joining the Naturals this year are Top Prospects Jason Adam and Yordano Ventura. Adam threw for Wilmington last season and was a solid workhorse for the team, throwing 158 innings in 27 starts, posting a 3.53 era. In his 2 professional seasons, Adam has proven he can go deep into games and give the pen a rest and along with his 6'4" athletic frame, Jason shouldn't have too many problems for the Naturals.

Ventura, 22, is #3 on our prospect list, and rightfully deserved. Yordano had a good spring while pitching in the Royals rotation, and was mentioned as a candidate for the final spot in the rotation, before getting sent down to NW Arkansas. Ventura will excite fans this year with his electrifying fastball that has touched 102 mph. If all goes well, "Ace" should spend about half the season in Springdale before moving up to Omaha. Hypothetically speaking, if the Royals were in the hunt and needed another arm in the pen, Ventura would be an acceptable move, just to get him accustomed to the big leagues.

Noel Arguelles, the 23 year old Cuban defector, will be another familiar face to the Naturals fans as he returns to the rotation, and was named Opening Day starter. Arguelles had a promising 2011 season with Wilmington coming off shoulder surgery. Last season was a different story. Going 4-14 with a 6.41 era in 25 starts doesn't look appealing on paper. Although he has returned to normal velocity, which was low 90's, he showed great control last year, which is a baby step. If velocity can return in Springdale, he could get back on track. If it doesn't, our $7 million put into him goes down the drain.

Royals 2013 Draft Bonus Pool

2013-04-02T20:53:00.001-05:00

Thanks to Jim Callis's hard work at Baseball America, we learned today that the Royals bonus pool for the 2013 first year player draft will be $8,290,700. They will have to spread this money across their first 11 selections in the draft. The Royals will also be deducted for any money they spend over $100,000 on picks from round 11 on and will lose all of the allotted money assigned to picks that they fail to sign.

The Royals sixth in terms of budget pool and have 11 selections in the first round thanks to the addition of their competitive balance lottery pick. Three of those selections will come within the first 46 picks of the entire draft (8, 34, and 46). Only three teams will have more draft picks than the Kansas City Royals: the Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, and the Oakland Athletics.

Here is a quick breakdown of the American League Central's draft budget pools:

6) Kansas City - $8,290,700
7) Minnesota - $8,264,400
16) Detroit - $6,467,400
19) Cleveland - $6,188,800
24) Chicago - $5,301,600

I wasn't a huge fan of the Collective Bargaining Agreement thanks in large part to the limits on amateur spending. I will agree though that long term something needed to be done, before large market teams realized how easily it could be for them to dominate the amateur market in the same ways they do the free agent market.

It is great that the Royals will still have one of the largest budget pools, but I would prefer the pools to be decided based on market size or payroll rather than the team's finish from the year before. The simple fact is that smaller market teams have to rely more on the draft and player development. In my mind, if the draft is about parity, these teams should be dealt a favorable hand.

A team like the Athletics or Rays shouldn't be penalized for their own success, when the draft will be their lifeline at future success. There are many counter arguments to these points, but don't forget that I'm a Royals fan. Of course I would prefer to see a realm when small market teams are at an advantage.

I do realize that in a sense small market teams are being given extra budget dollars thanks to the new competitive balance lottery. I definitely won't complain about these picks. Sure it feels dirty that the Royals get an extra pick simply for playing in Kansas City, but once again it is nice to have an advantage in at least one area. Let's hope the Royals can make the most of this year's opportunity.

For a look at the entire list of draft budgets, you can find it here.

Wilmington Blue Rocks Preview

2013-04-01T19:26:00.001-05:00

Projected Lineup

2B - Justin Trapp

SS - Jack Lopez

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

CF - Lane Adams

1B - Murray Watts

DH - Daniel Mateo

LF - Tim Ferguson

C - Parker Morin

Rotation

Kyle Zimmer

Sam Selman

Kyle Smith

John Lamb

Angel Baez

Bench

C Kenny Swab, IF Kenneth Diekroger, IF Nick DelGuidice, OF Geulin Beltre, OF Chris Elder

Bullpen

Antonio Cruz, Robinson Yambati, Aaron Brooks, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold, Kellen Moen,

Spencer Patton, Andrew Tiggs

Notes on the 2013 Blue Rocks:

The middle of the lineup will be one of the more popular topics regarding Wilmington to start this season off. Cuthbert is looking for a bounce back year, after hitting .240/.296/.322 with an ISO of .082. Cheslor's GB% was 46.7 while his BB% was 7.2. Although his K% was well below the Carolina League average, if he can work on a line-drive swing and being a little more patient at the plate, Cuthbert we'll get back on track in no time.
Jorge Bonifacio, the 19 year old "not so athletic younger brother of Emilio" and #5 on our 2013 Prospect List, held his own for sure at the plate in Kane County last season, hitting .282 with 10 HR and 61 RBI, not as pretty as Twins top prospect Miguel Sano (28 HR 100 RBI), but still very promising for the time being and his age. The C.L. is known for being a "pitcher's league" so hopefully Bonifacio can keep up the pace from his Kane County days.
Jason Adam, 23, has sort of slipped off our radar, but still remains a prospect for now. Last season, starting off with Kane County, was a solid bounce back from an ugly 2011 season. Once joining the Blue Rocks, his batting average fell nearly 60 points compared to his K.C. appearances. If Jason wants to remain in the organization, he'll need to get it going in Wilmington before it's too late.

Murray Watts, 27, is definitely on the scolding hot seat at this point. Last year he compiled a line of .221/.299/.394 in 30 games for the Blue Rocks, hitting only 4 HR with an ISO of .173. The problem with Murray is he doesn't make contact well at all and doesn't have good patience at the plate, striking out 35.9% of the time while walking only 10.3% of his ABs. This will most likely be the final year for Murray in the Royals organization if he doesn't show signs of improvement.

The rotation will definitely be the highlight of Wilmington to kick off the season this Thursday, April 4th. With four of our own Top 15 prospects in the rotation alone, Royals fans will want to keep tabs on the Blue Rocks for a while. Kyle Zimmer headlines the staff, as he comes off an exciting rookie season in Kane County. A workhorse who will give you lots of innings, like former Blue Rock Jason Adam, should split time between Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas, if all goes to plan. Sam Selman and Kyle Smith join Zimmer in their quest, alongside rehabbing John Lamb, who is back to full health, but needs some time to regain some of his velocity.

Another guy to look after his reliever Robinson Yambati. At 22, he has a three quarter arm delivery, a low 90's fastball, and an incredible GB% of 65.6, thanks to his ability to keep the ball low in the strike zone. If he continues his success from 2012, he'll be in Northwest Arkansas before too long, and possibly even Omaha before season's end.

Only a Dream

2013-03-31T22:03:00.004-05:00

I slowly rolled over to the side of the bed to check to see who could possibly be blowing up my phone at such an early hour. I slid my finger across my iPhone and smiled as I gazed at Mike Moustakas lifting James Shields high into the air. I wasted no time in saving the moment from eight hours before as my background.

I lay back on to my pillow and stared up at the ceiling. I took a moment to reminisce about the summer that could wind up being the best of my life. For the first time in my existence the Royals had made the postseason, which in itself would have been good enough to satisfy me. Man, was that a wonderful ride.

Less than a year ago, the Royals had cashed in on their prospects and while Wil Myers was fantastic as a Ray, you would be hard pressed to find a Royals fan regretting the trade. James Shields was everything a Royals fan could've hoped for and then some. His effects on the rotation extended well beyond the his own performance. It seemed like every night he was on the top step motivating his guys. There were even rumors that moving forward they are going to implement his training exercises throughout the system. It is incredible that one player could have such a profound affect on an organization.

Of course, Davis was no slouch either. Most of us thought he would be a key factor heading into 2013, but he surpassed expectations. Thanks to those two guys performances and the workloads carried by Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, the Royals fell just short of 1,000 innings. As a result, the bullpen was dominate in the late innings. Not only was Greg Holland perfect in his save opportunities, but the Royals managed an incredible 73-2 when leading after seven innings.

I couldn't help but laugh at this second thought. You see throughout the second half of the season, there were a couple of fans that really made their mark. One fan dressed sort of resembled a Mario brother with a giant moustache and "Royal Flush" in script across his overalls. The other fan wore a toilet suit with an oversized handle. Each time the bullpen would 'K' a hitter they would make a big scene flushing the batter away. It didn't take long for Crown Vision to get them regular air time.

I glanced back down at my phone and realized I had been in laying awake for nearly ten minutes. I sat up and looked at the wall ahead of me where there hung a framed copy of the Kansas City Star from September 30. The headline simply read "Postseason Bound!". For Royals fans that was enough. On the cover, was a picture of Eric Hosmer being mobbed by teammates at home with Jeff Francoeur undercutting him in his man region.

Watching Eric Hosmer's two run home run sail into the Kansas City sky before landing in the left field fountain was probably the most beautiful thing I had ever witnessed. It was so fitting. Hosmer, who had struggled so much in 2012, was simply a beast in 2013. It wasn't a coincidence that his division winning home run went opposite field. He led the league with oppo bombs in 2013. Looking back, it is amazing that he wasn't selected to the All-Star game.

Apparently, Jim Leyland felt content with Salvador Perez, James Shields and Alex Gordon on the roster. Again, for Royals fans that felt like enough. I'd be shocked if Perez and Gordon didn't win Gold Gloves in a few weeks. In fact, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar would also be plenty deserving. That defense was unbelievable. Every night Baseball Tonight would be packed for of Royals in the Web Gems segment.

Lorenzo Cain's catch against Toronto in the seventh game of the ALCS will be on baseball highlight films for generations. The look on Jose Bautista's face when Lorenzo Cain closed his glove around a ball that was two and a half feet higher than the fence was priceless. What is even more amazing is that it wasn't even the play of the game. That honor will always be held by Moustakas 468 foot home run to put the Royals ahead in the top of the 9th.

For a guy that watched most of these guys win titles in the Minor Leagues, it was awesome to finally see them have the opportunity to be heroes on the big stage. I finally remembered to check the text message that I had received. Among the congratulatory texts from friends and family members was one text from a friend. It simply read "Plaza, Friday at noon." I smiled bigger than ever. It was seven years ago that Dayton Moore had selected the Plaza as the site for the future World Series parade. I couldn't believe it was finally going to be reality. I only hope that it wasn't just a dream.

Joe Cox, meet the Royals

2013-03-31T19:50:00.001-05:00

I currently reside in the capital of my home state, Des Moines, Iowa. Des Moines is home of the Iowa Cubs, a mainstay of the city as long as I’ve thought of baseball. They call newly renovated Principal Park home and I must say I have a nice time every time I go. The Iowa Cubs have long been affiliated with their Chicago counterparts of the same name, who have tainted my love for them over the years with the loss of childhood hero Mark Grace, some steroids and corked bats, and Jim Hendry.

I am a bad Cubs fan, which is not good, because a lot of people are ‘good’ Cubs fans in the sense that they will back their team during a few good times and many bad times. I will be happy to see them become successful, but I do not feel that I am allowed back to that fanbase, which is completely fair. My best memories will always be Kevin Orie, the Glenallen Hill/ Henry Rodriguez left field platoon, Steve Traschel pitching against the Giants in a play-in game to make the playoffs, and my confidence in Wood, Prior, Zambrano before it all went horribly wrong. And, of course, everything Mark Grace.

So I am a baseball enthusiast without a team. I have somewhat latched on to the Braves thanks to their Spurs-like organization. Chipper Jones plays the role of Tim Duncan while the never-ending supply of starting pitching parallels the Spurs ability to always find the right role players with their big three. The problem with the Braves is location, as I can only like so many non-midwestern professional sports teams (I messed up with the NBA/ NFL.)

Meeting Royals backers from this site and otherwise has given me a reason to root for this team. They are a small market, Midwestern team with young talent and fans my age that deserve to finally see a winning team. They make some questionable moves at times, but it is hard to fault a small market team making a commitment to win now. I have also been welcomed to write for Royal Revival, which has allowed me to become more knowledgeable about this team. It has forced me to think of parts of the Royals organization that I never expected to care about.

For 2013, at least, I will be a baseball enthusiast who at least has the Royals as a team to follow with purpose. This is about all I can ask until I can fully recover from my break-up with the Cubs, along with finding it difficult to commit to the Braves. Thanks Royals and good luck.

Royal Revival Staff Predictions

2013-03-31T15:41:00.000-05:00

Paden Bennett:

1. Royals Record: 84-78

2. Final AL Central Standings:

1. Tigers

2. Royals

3. Indians

4. White Sox

5. Twins

3. Team MVP: Alex Gordon

4. Pitcher of the Year: James Shields

5. Royals with 20+ Home Runs: 4 (Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Perez)

6. Leader Home Runs: Butler (31)

7. Highest batting average: Butler (.311)

8. Innings pitched by the rotation: 965

9. James Shields ERA: 3.46

10. Bullpen ERA: 3.50

11. Team leader in WAR: Gordon (6.2)

12. All-Star(s): Salvador Perez, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon

13. Team leader in steals: Jarrod Dyson (42)

14. Lorenzo Cain games played: 142

15. 1st Round Pick: Austin Wilson OF (Stanford University)

16. Midseason Trade: Royals trade for Jon Jay, Cain moves to RF in place of Frenchy

17. Breakout Prospect: Bubba Starling

18. Jeff Francoeur nude batting practice sessions: just the right amount

19. Number of Cheese references per broadcast made by Rex Hudler: 4.8

20. End of season headline: "Royals struggle down stretch, miss playoffs"

Nathan Bramwell:

1. Royals Record: 91-71

2. Final AL Central Standings:

1. Royals

2. Tigers

3. Indians

4. Twins

5. White Sox

3. Team MVP: Alex Gordon

4. Pitcher of the Year: James Shields

5. Royals with 20+ Home Runs: 5 (Butler, Gordon, Perez, Mous, Hosmer)

6. Leader Home Runs: Butler (33)

7. Highest batting average: Perez (.309)

8. Innings pitched by the rotation: 937

9. James Shields ERA: 3.12

10. Bullpen ERA: 2.95

11. Team leader in WAR: Escobar

12. All-Star(s): 3 (Perez, Gordon, Butler)

13. Team leader in steals: Jarrod Dyson (41)

14. Lorenzo Cain games played: 101

15. 1st Round Pick: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma

16. Midseason Trade: Royals trade Ned Yost and prospects for Joe Maddon.

17. Breakout Prospect: Bubba Starling

18. Jeff Francoeur nude batting practice sessions: You have my attention.

19. Number of Cheese references per broadcast made by Rex Hudler: 8

20. End of season headline: "Royals win World Series as Chiefs remain unbeaten."

Joe Cox:

1. Royals Record: 82-80

2. Final AL Central Standings:

1. Tigers

2. Royals

3. Indians

4. White Sox

5. Twins

3. Team MVP: Alex Gordon

4. Pitcher of the Year: James Shields

5. Royals with 20+ Home Runs: 3 (Hosmer, Butler, Moustakas)

6. Leader Home Runs & how many: Moustakas (27)

7. Highest batting average: Butler (.321)

8. Innings pitched by the rotation: 942

9. James Shields ERA: 3.42

10. Bullpen ERA: 3.10

11. Team leader in WAR: Alex Gordon (6.0)

12. All-Star(s): (5) Moustakas, Butler, Gordon, Shields, Herrera

13. Team leader in steals: Jarrod Dyson (38)

14. Lorenzo Cain games played: 128

15. 1st Round Pick: Sean Manaea (LHP Indiana St.)

16. Midseason Trade: Royals trade a low level prospect to Baltamore for Brian Roberts, the Orioles eat 6.5 mil on the final year of his 10 million dollar contract for this season.

17. Breakout Prospect: Miguel Almonte

18. Jeff Francoeur nude batting practice sessions: however many he feels like.

19. Number of Cheese references per broadcast made by Rex Hudler: from the looks of it he could hover around 10 every game.

20. End of season headline: "James Shields doesn't disappoint, but the rest of the rotation does, as the Royals miss the playoffs despite reaching .500 for the first time since 2003."

Damion Mandalas:

1. Royals Record: 86-76

2. Final AL Central Standings:

1. Tigers

2. Royals

3. Indians

4. White Sox

5. Twins

3. Team MVP: Alex Gordon

4. Pitcher of the Year: James Shields

5. Royals with 20+ Home Runs: 4 (Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer)

6. Leader Home Runs: Butler (27)

7. Highest batting average: Butler (.306)

8. Innings pitched by the rotation: 968

9. James Shields ERA: 3.77

10. Bullpen ERA: 3.23

11. Team leader in WAR: Alex Gordon (6.8)

12. All-Star(s): Alex Gordon and James Shields

13. Team leader in steals: Jarrod Dyson (38)

14. Lorenzo Cain games played: 132

15. 1st Round Pick: Sean Manaea (LHP Indiana State)

16. Midseason Trade: In July, David DeJesus returns to Kansas City for Chris Dwyer and Ethan Chapman

17. Breakout prospect: Cam Gallagher

18. Jeff Francoeur nude batting practice sessions: Not enough

19. Number of Cheese references per broadcast made by Rex Hudler: 6.5

20. End of season headline: "Royals magical season falls just short."

Dan Ware:

1. Royals Record: 85-77

2. Final AL Central Standings:

1. Tigers

2. Royals

3. Indians

4. White Sox

5. Twins

3. Team MVP: Alex Gordon

4. Pitcher of the Year: James Shields

5. Royals with 20+ Home Runs: 3: Billy Butler 32, Mike Moustakas 28, Eric Hosmer 25

6. Leader Home Runs: Billy Butler, 32 HR

7. Highest batting average: Billy Butler, .310

8. Innings pitched by the rotation: 922

9. James Shields ERA: 3.52

10. Bullpen ERA: 3.44

11. Team leader in WAR: Alex Gordon, 5.7

12. All-Star(s): Billy Butler and Alex Gordon

13. Team leader in steals: Jarrod Dyson, 39

14. Lorenzo Cain games played: 123

15. 1st Round Pick: Chris Anderson, RHP Jacksonville University

16. Midseason Trade: N/A

17. Breakout Prospect: Cheslor Cuthbert

18. Jeff Francoeur nude batting practice sessions: How about an Alex Gordon sleeveless BP?

19. Number of Cheese references per broadcast made by Rex Hudler: 3; He'll switch to cookies.

20. End of season headline: "Royals lose heart breaker in Wild Card thriller"

Prospect Countdown: #1 Bubba Starling

2013-03-30T22:45:00.002-05:00

1. Bubba Starling Outfielder

www.milb.com

Age: 20
Position: OF
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 180
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round (5th Overall) of the 2011 Amateur Draft
From: Gardner, KS

Report Created on Baseball-Reference.com

Paden Bennett (2): Bubba Starling is a freak, he has all the tools and God-given gifts that anyone could ask for in an athlete. Starling has power, speed, agility. When Starling was drafted he was compared to a young Jeff Francoeur when he first came into the league. Scouts raved about Frenchy's natural abilities such as: raw power, speed, arm strength and natural athleticism. However Frenchy has always had a problem, he doesn't walk and he strikes out too much. Now Starling does compare to Frenchy in terms of how they both were highly touted for their 5 tools and athletic ability but he also compares to Francoeur in terms of strikeouts. Starling struck out 70 times in just 200 at bats last season, a number that could be a red flag.

However, Starling does do one thing that Francoeur doesn't do. Starling has some patience at the plate as shown by his 28 walks in 200 at bats. If Starling can continue to improve on his plate discipline and take walks, in my opinion his strikeouts wont matter as long as he hits for power. I am fine with a guy that strikes out a lot as long as he gets on base (walks) and hits the long ball. I always have had that mindset, and some people will disagree with me but that's just how I feel.

In my opinion, I see Bubba panning out and walking just enough to become an above average centerfielder with 25-30 home run power and an average around .240-.250 with good enough on base skills to keep him on the field.

Joe Cox (3): The story of Bubba Starling has been well documented, a high school two-sport star in high school that turned down an opportunity to play quarterback for Nebraska in order to sign with the Kansas City Royals organization after being picked fifth overall in the 2011 amateur draft. Starling is the classic 5 tool prospect but is by no means a can’t miss prospect, as he is still very raw after focusing on multiple sports up to this point in his life.

Starling’s professional debut came last year in Burlington as a 19 year old, and he put together a pretty solid season in 200 AB’s. With a triple slash line of .275/.371/.485 Starling displayed his ability to get on base and also displayed is plus power. Defensively, few scouts seem concerned that he does not have the potential to be a very good center fielder. The big question mark, of course, is Starling’s ability to make contact.

Starling struck out in over 30% of his at-bats last year, and scouting reports do not like Starling's swing at its current state. The hitch in his swing and his inability to read breaking pitches could be the driving force that holds Starling back. With time on his side Starling has plenty of time to figure out his swing in the minors, and the sky is the limit in terms of his raw athletic ability. A plus defensive power hitting center fielder are a rare breed and very valuable, and Starling could be a middle of the order, All-Star caliber player with those skills. It is very likely that in a few years we will see Starling in the majors, and obviously, then have a better idea of what kind of player Starling truly is. Royals fans will have to be patient though because their budding star is still a work in progress.

Damion Mandalas (5): The 2011 first year player draft was absolutely stocked full of talent. The draft was loaded with advanced arms at the top and had it not been for the Seattle Mariners late decision to divert from their draft plans and take Danny Hultzen instead of a bat (I realize that more than likely it wasn't a late decision and instead was simply a smokescreen), the Royals would likely have wound up with pitching phenom Dylan Bundy. I don't think Starlings perceived development has been helped by the shooting stars that surrounded him in the draft.

There are a couple of major reasons to be concerned about Bubba Starling. As my peers have mentioned, the strikeouts are a huge problem. I can't recall the post, but I remember reading about other teenagers to have struck out in over 30% of their at bats in the Appalachian League. Let's just say the list wasn't awe inspiring, and the most successful player from the group was Preston Wilson. I think it is safe to say that if Starling winds up as Preston Wilson, Royals fans will be a bit disappointed.

Having pointed out the two most concerning factors with Starling, I want to point out that we knew Starling would be a project. Entering the draft we heard "5 tool talent" repeatedly, but most that looked closely found concerns about the swing and the ability to hit for average. We also all knew Starling was old for his draft class and given his affection for other sports, would be behind his peers. Ultimately, most of us were fine with those risks. I have my concerns with Starling, but I'm not going to jump off the bandwagon after a .275/.371/.485 campaign in a tough league on hitters.

Dan Ware (3): Bubba will be one of the most talked about prospects in the Royals organization this season. Sitting at #35 on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects for 2013, just 11 spots behind P Kyle Zimmer. Other than the strikeout concerns, Bubba did nothing but impress in his professional debut last year with the Burlington Royals. Given his age, 19, and that he needs to spend quite some time at each level to mature and to improve his raw talent, there is absolutely no reason for Bubba to be rushed through the system.

Easily considered a '5 Tools guy', Starling is the total package. He has a tremendous, athletic frame at 6'4'' 180, which could have suited up football pads at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, but chose to put on the baseball uniform instead, which we can all agree was the right decision! His bat is somewhat of a mystery right now. He can make contact, and when he does, he can hit with easy plus-plus power. The problem is his strikeouts. Last season for Burlington, he walked only 12.1% of his plate appearances, while striking out 30.2% of the time. For how high our expectations are of Starling, this number is a little disconcerting but you never know what happens this season. Hopefully he lowers that number and gains a little poise at the plate.

As for the field, there's no question he has tremendous upside in the OF. His skills are good for his age, but are still unrefined, which will come along with age progression. He's known for an easy plus arm and has great accuracy on his throws. He can get to the ball with ease because of his excellent speed and quickness, but I've read he can misjudge a ball and makes his reactions rather late on occasion. Potential wise, he should stick out in CF for years to come.

I'm expecting some good things out of Starling this season, as he'll start off 2013 for the Lexington Legends. He'll be apart of an exciting team along with 3 other top prospects in Aldaberto Mondesi, Cameron Gallagher, and Miguel Almonte. If there are Royals fans out in Lexington, Kentucky.....I'm incredibly jealous you get to see that team this season.

Total Points: 111

Omaha Storm Chasers Preview

2013-03-30T21:38:00.003-05:00

Projected Lineup

LF - David Lough

SS - Christian Colon

2B - Johnny Giavotella

DH - Max Ramirez

1B - Chad Tracy

3B - Irving Falu

RF - Paulo Orlando

C - Brett Hayes

CF - Willy Taveras

Rotation

Will Smith

Ryan Verdugo

Everett Teaford

Justin Marks

Chris Dwyer

Bench

C Adam Moore, UT Anthony Seratelli, 1B Xavier Nady, 3B Brandon Wood, OF Luis Durango

Bullpen

Michael Mariot, Nate Adcock, Donnie Joseph, Louis Coleman, Buddy Baumann, Anthony Ortega,

Brian Sanches, Blaine Boyer, Atahualpa Severino, Francisely Bueno

Some notes about this year's Storm Chasers:

Plenty of guys on the roster that can easily see some time in Kansas City, whether it's due to injury or poor performance. Some that will be kept a close watch will be Giavotella, Lough, Smith, Joseph, Coleman, Bueno.
We should expect another great effort out of David Lough. The 27 year old OF was blocked from making the Royals 25-man roster by OF Jarrod Dyson, who has plus-plus speed and is out of options. I only see Lough making it to Kansas City via injury or September call-up.
Johnny Giavotella lost the battle for the starting spot at 2B to Chris Getz just a couple weeks ago. He had a disappointing line of .267/.283/.400 in 21 games played, collecting 12 hits in 45 ABs, 1 HR on 11 RBI, 8 SO and 0 BB. If history repeats itself, Gio shouldn't have a problem hitting in Omaha as he has .330 avg the past 2 seasons as a Storm Chaser. He simply hasn't proven himself in Kansas City and time is wearing thin for him to keep him in the future plans.
SP Will Smith had a solid spring going 1-0 in 11 IP, starting 2 games, striking out 10 batters with only 1 walk, and giving up just 7 hits. For now, he'll get some innings in Omaha until an opportunity arises for him to head south to Kansas City.
Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock, Donnie Joseph, Louis Coleman, and Francisely Bueno could easily log innings in Kansas City. Teaford and Adcock will be primarily used as spot starters if needed in a pinch. Joseph, Coleman, and Bueno all had good springs and could be in the 'pen at some point. Coleman will start off in Omaha only because he has options and J.C. Gutierrez, who won the final spot in the pen, is out of options. Bueno will definitely be considered for a call up after compiling an impressive 1.56 ERA during his stint with the Royals last season. Joseph, who had a 1-0 record with a 4.15 ERA in 11 games last year for Omaha, will spend a little time away from Kansas City as he was rather roughed up upon arriving to the Royals. In 21 IP, he gave up 8 runs and had a meager 19/13 K to BB ratio.
As the season progresses, the Storm Chasers could quite possibly add P Yordano Ventura and Jason Adam if they continue to flourish through the system, and a slight chance of having SS Orlando Calixte make an appearance.

Prospect Countdown: #2 Kyle Zimmer

2013-03-30T12:36:00.003-05:00

2. Kyle Zimmer Right Handed Pitcher

www.milb.com

Age: 21
Position: RHP
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round (5th Overall) of the 2012 Amateur Draft
From: San Francisco, CA

Report Created on Baseball-Reference.com

Paden Bennett (4): Out of all the Royals pitching prospects Kyle Zimmer is the one you should get to know very quickly, Zimmer is the one that could move the the system extremely fast because of his combination of a fastball that can reach 99 mph, a curveball that can get up to 81 mph and a solid changeup. All 3 of his pitches rank above average on the 20/80 scale. I expect big things from Zimmer this season. I think he will play at 3 levels this season. Zimmer in my opinion will have a huge year and will be starting for the Omaha Stormchasers by the end of the season. Keep a tab on this kid Royals fans because he has the stuff to front a rotation for us in the future.

Joe Cox (6): While the Royals have a lot of interesting young pitching, Kyle Zimmer quickly became the highest rated pitching prospect in the system after he was drafted fifth overall in last season’s amateur draft. Zimmer is a 6-3 185 pound righty that pitched for the University of San Fransisco is a polished pitcher at 21 years old and could advance to the majors as early as 2014. The Royals will have no choice if Zimmer continues to dominate the minors like he did over 40 innings last season.

While pitching only 9 combined starts between rookie league and A level competition, he allowed only one home run and struck out 42 batters. He also showed his command of the plate with only eight walks. Zimmer has a four pitch arsenal, with a fastball that normally hits the low to mid 90’s. His changeup is said to be his worst offering, but has potential to be an effective pitch if he can learn to command the pitch. I would suspect Zimmer to begin the year in high A and reach AA or even AAA by the end of the season. This was the perfect draft pick for the Royals last year and Zimmer has a good chance to be a top of the rotation arm for many years for the Royals, who desperately need to see a pitching prospect pan out.

Damion Mandalas (2): One of the primary reasons to be so excited for Kyle Zimmer, is the way in which he fits into the Royals pitching philosophies. The Royals preach fastball, curveball, changeup and those are exactly the three pitches that Kyle Zimmer excels at. Also, the Royals like to grab pitchers early in their pitching careers in an attempt to mold them into the type of hurler they want them to become.

While Zimmer is already 21 years old, he has an incredibly low amount of mileage on his arm, compared to other college pitchers. The Royals probably take this to mean, that Zimmer has a considerably more upside than your typical college pitcher. For the Royals this represents the best of both worlds: an advanced pitcher who also has the upside that the Royals seek out.

Hopefully, all of these factors will contribute to the developmental victory that the Royals have yet to achieve when it comes to starting pitchers. Producing front end starters is the most difficult task of player development, but given the meshing of Zimmer and the Royals philosophies there is hope that Zimmer can be that front end guy the Front Office has desperately been looking for.

Dan Ware (2): There is no reason at all to not be excited about Kyle Zimmer. Our 2012 first round draft pick has already made a name for himself as the top pitching prospect in the Royals organization. Needless to say, I'm very much looking forward to the day he gets the call to Northwest Arkansas. You can count on me being at his first start!

Zimmer, 20, showed great promise last year in his professional debut season with the Arizona League Royals and Kane County. While going a combined 3-3 , he compiled a solid 2.04/2.32 ERA/FIP, good K/BB walk ratio of 29/8, allowing batters to hit just .267, and giving up only 1 homerun. For those that haven't fully educated themselves on Kyle, he has a plus-plus fastball ranging from 95-99 mph that has good late movement. Also in his repertoire, he has a curveball that's also considered MLB-ready, who Jason Parks said the other day on Twitter that his "hammer curve was at 81 mph; easy plus". His changeup is considered above-average, ranking as 55 on a 20/80 scale from Baseball America.

Zimmer will start off in Wilmington as the leader of a potent rotation for the Blue Rocks including Sam Selman, Kyle Smith, and recently assigned John Lamb. Assistant GM for the Royals, J.J. Picollo, stated Wednesday night during the Royals broadcast that Zimmer most likely will see time in Northwest Arkansas this season.

Total Points: 110

Prospect Countdown: #3 Yordano Ventura

2013-03-28T22:56:00.001-05:00

3. Yordano Ventura Right Handed Pitcher

www.kansascity.com

Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 140
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent
From: Samana, Dominican Republic

Report Created on Baseball-Reference.com

Paden Bennett (5): Yordano Ventura is one of my favorite prospects in the Royals organization. "Ace" Ventura has filthy stuff featuring a fastball that can reach up to 102 mph to go with an improving curveball and a solid changeup. Ventura is a power pitcher although he doesn't look the part. Listed at 5'11" and 140 lbs he doesn't look like a pitcher that will blow a 100+ mph fastball right by you. "Ace" doesn't look like a guy that would be a big strikeout pitcher; but he is. Yes, Ventura is a strikeout, power pitcher who a lot of Royals fans would've loved to see him in the rotation in the 5th spot. However, going to Northwest Arkansas is the right decision because their is absolutely no need to rush this kid because he's just not completely ready yet. It won't be long though, I expect to see Ventura in AAA pretty quickly this season and with an injury or two to a rotation starter in KC who knows he could make an appearance at the K.

Joe Cox (5): Yordano Ventura worked off his coming out party in A ball in 2011 to have another impressive season in 2012 split between high A and AA. The 21 year old right handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic has rapidly become one of the Royals better prospects, and one of the more exciting right handed arms in the minors. Despite Ventura’s small stature some scouts give his fastball that can reach 100 MPH and 80 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also profiles potential plus secondary pitches in a curveball and change-up.

One the field, Ventura has consistently limited walks, strike people out consistently and limit home runs. Over a career high 109 innings last season he compiled 130 strike outs and a 3.62 ERA while walking only 32 batters. The biggest question mark for Ventura will continue to be his durability, as his small frame (5-11, 140 lbs) could mean he may make the switch to a relief arm down the road. If healthy, there is no reason to suspect he won’t to be impressive in the minors in 2013. I would suspect he makes it to AAA at some point during the season and could be in the talks of making the team by opening day 2014.

Damion Mandalas (6): The hype surrounding Yordano Ventura this spring has almost create a sort of bubble effect. On the inside are those asking "where the (expletive) did this guy come from?" and on the outside are the Royals fans that know how to use Twitter. Ventura definitely impressed this Spring, but the Royals are making the right choice in opening him in Northwest Arkansas.

Given the state of the Royals rotation, there is zero reason to rush Ventura. I do believe he will move quick from here on, but it isn't hard to see the benefits from having him spend the entire season between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. Of course, if the Royals are in the race and they need another bullpen arm, it might make sense to allow Ventura the opportunity to pitch in the pen in September as a way to acclimate himself to the Major League level. His 102 mph fastball? I'm sure it will play.

I've been a huge Ventura fan for awhile now. I like Zimmer, but I don't know that there is a pitcher with a higher ceiling in the Royals organization than "Ace". The Royals have had problems getting pitchers past the Double-A level, so it will be interested to see how Ventura performs in the Texas League in 2013.

Dan Ware (6): "Ace" Ventura, yet another familiar face to the Springdale natives, will be on the mound for the Naturals to start off 2013. Rated #85 on this year's Baseball America's Top 100 prospects, compiled decent numbers while playing in three different uniforms in 2012, logging most of his innings in Wilmington. 16 of his 23 starts were with the Blue Rocks, posting a 3.30 era, 76.1 IP, 98 Ks and 28 BB. He impressed the Royals enough to get the call up to the Naturals, earning him 6 starts, which probably didn't go as planned for Yordano.

In 29.1 IP, he posted a 4.60 era, while striking out 25 batters and walking 13. His K/BB ratio certainly took a nose dive after making the jump from Single-A to Double-A, but it's nothing to get worked up over. Along with his powerful fastball, also rated the best in the Royals organization by B.A., he also contains an improving curve and changeup that are rated as a 60 and 55, respectively. It would have been awesome to see Ventura win the 5th spot in the rotation, but even starting off in Northwest Arkansas, if he can get hot quickly, we'll more than likely see him by season's end, whether it's injury issues in Kansas City (Heaven forbid) or just a call-up.

Total Points: 102

Prospect Countdown: #4 John Lamb

2013-03-28T10:25:00.002-05:00

4. John Lamb Left Handed Pitcher

royals.mlblogs.com

Age: 22
Position: LHP
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 200
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2008 Amateur Draft
From: La Palma, CA

Report Created on Baseball-Reference.com

Paden Bennett (13): John Lamb has been one of my favorite prospects for awhile now. When he had to have Tommy John Surgery to repair his UCL I was crushed. Lamb was moving through the system quick, and he seemed to have the personality to be that top of the rotation starter with his tattoo sleeves and his natural swagger. I still think Lamb can become a starter in a major league rotation for sure, although I don't know if he can be an ace anymore. I need to see the velocity get back up into the 93-96 range or at least 90-94. If he can get his velocity back up to those range of speeds he has the stuff to become a top of the rotation starter.

Joe Cox (4): John Lamb has been a prospect for a long time, and certainly does not deserve to be the fourth ranked prospect unless he can successfully come back from the Tommy John Surgery that sidelined him for much of 2011 and 2012. A big reason his Royal Revival 2013 prospect ranking is so positive is because of me, as I still believe in the 22 year old lefty coming in to this season.

Lamb was added to the 40 man roster in November so the Royals could prevent losing him in the Rule 5 draft, and the hope is that he will regain some of his stuff that did not show up in his short stint last season. His fastball was quite a bit slower being mostly in the high 80’s and low 90’s, but that is to be expected for a player coming back from TJS. In 2013 it is expected that Lamb will begin the season in AA and Royals fans will be rooting for the once sure thing prospect. If we see Lamb find his fastball in 2013, he should be ready to fight for a rotation spot in 2014.

Damion Mandalas (7): Entering 2010, Jarrod Parker was ranked by Baseball America as the #36 prospect in all of baseball. As a 20 year old in the season before he split time between High-A and Double-A and posted an ERA of 3.14 over 97 innings. Parker then missed all of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery on the UCL of his right elbow. The following offseason, Parker actually was bumped up the Baseball America rankings and came in at #33.

Entering 2011, John Lamb was ranked by Baseball America as the #18 prospect in all of baseball. As a 19 year old in the season before, he split time Low-A, High-A, and Double-A and posted an ERA of 2.38 of 147.2 innings. After 8 starts, Lamb then missed the remainder of 2011 due to Tommy John surgery on the UCL of his left elbow. The following offseason, Lamb disappeared entirely from Baseball America's top 100 prospect list.

I've found Lamb's drop in prospect status to be quite incredible. Of course, due to the timing of his Tommy John surgery and because of a setback in the rehab process over the last two seasons, the former fifth round pick has thrown just 64 innings. I can see why Lamb would have fallen off the list by now, but given the quickness in which his disappearing act occurred, I have to think many are underrated Lamb.

The big concern for Lamb right now is his velocity. If the velo can get back to 93-96, the upside is still there for him to one day perch at the top of a rotation. If the velocity only returns to 88-92, he could likely still carve out a career as a strong midrotation starter. However, if the velocity drops all the way to the 83-87 range, the hope of Lamb in future Royals rotations takes a huge hit.

In his last Spring Training start Lamb was said to have been working consistently at 90-91, the highest since 2010. Lamb should open the season in Northwest Arkansas. I'll do my best to give out some reports on how the velocity is returning. Lamb was added to the 40-man roster the summer, so if the stuff is back he should rise quick.

Dan Ware (7): Along with Joe, I still have hope for John Lamb on making a strong comeback from TJ that sidelined him for most of the past 2 seasons. John has been one of my favorite prospects since he was drafted in 2008. Back in 2010, it was a bittersweet season for Lamb, as he dominated in Wilmington as a 19 year old, going 6-3 with 1.45 era. Once he got the call to go to Arkansas, he experienced the jump to Double-A pretty roughly. He put the 2010 campaign behind him and had a good comeback going into 2011 with a 3.09 era in just 35 IP before going under the knife.

As of right now, Lamb has no pressing issues. Back to full health, yet velocity still hasn't returned to where it once was around (91-95), which was obviously expected, but isn't a concern to the Royals (Link). Last Wednesday, the 20th, I read a tweet saying Lamb was sitting around 86-88, topping out at 89 mph, while his looping curve was around 66-68 mph. Mechanics looked fine, just didn't have arm speed right now. I think Lamb still has the ability to make the rotation next year, even if he doesn't get his full velocity back. He'll definitely receive a warm welcome for his first start back with the Naturals.

Total Points: 93