Running with Spades

Reviewing the Path to the Top

2008-12-27T02:19:00.003-05:00

Current Bankroll: $2 - 133K Play Chips

Just going over the rules again to determine exactly where the changes in buy-ins take place in regards to bankroll.

The goal is to hit 2M play chips so I can start buying into the 500K $40 Play Chip daily freeroll.

Rule #2 states: "Only buy-in to cash games for 1/5th or less of my total bankroll (buy-in is 100 times BB), and tournaments for %5 or less." This means I am stuck in the 2k tournaments until I hit 200k play chips and can start buying into the 10k tourneys. I can't start the 1k/2k cash games until I hit 1M play chips, so it looks like it's going to be all tournaments for a while since the next highest cash games are at the 100/200 level which just isn't worth it.

Back in Action

2008-12-27T01:36:00.003-05:00

Current Bankroll: $2 - 155K Play Chips

I'm back in action at the play chip tables after nearly a year off for personal reasons. Just basically trying to get back in the swing of things in the 2K play chip tourneys. I actually picked up $2 in one of the 2700 player freerolls some time during the summer, but have driven my play chip bankroll dangerously low with some occasional unfocused play so it's probably going to be a little while until I build my play chip bankroll back up high enough to start cashing in on the 500K Play Chip Freeroll.

I'm back to the basics though and adhering strictly to the rules, so it should be a fun and edifying journey giving me plenty of time to practice moving up in stakes.

I've started using Twitter for micro-blogging, so if you want an even more in depth look at my thoughts at the tables, check me out at http://twitter.com/runningspades.

Another Quick Defeat

2008-01-05T07:26:00.000-05:00

Current Bankroll: $0 - 300K Play Chips

For low buy-in tournaments Full Tilt only has two options. Either the $2 + $0.25 180-Player multi-table tournaments or the nightly $1 Chris Ferguson Tournament. The latter sounds like the logical choice for someone trying to build up a small bankroll with the least amount of risk, but I decided to take a shot at the $2 tourney instead because I would be able to play 4 of them back-to-back as opposed to having to wait an entire day between tournaments with the Chris Ferguson even though it would have given me more than double the opportunities. In the past I've had trouble adjusting to the different styles of play at the different limits and especially when moving from the play money tables to the real money ones.

Thinking back on it now, I don't think the opportunity to play several tournaments back-to-back justified lowering my margin of error. In fact I think that playing several back-to-back actually hurt me because I found myself starting to fall back into the lack-of-patience that has been hurting me at the play chip tables lately.

I played really well in the first one before starting to bleed chips away as we neared the money, just not being able to hit anything. Then I lost my first double-up attempt and busted out in 30th of 180 (top 18 cashed). After that I found myself pushing way too soon and busted out in worse than 100th in the next three tourneys quickly zeroing out my bankroll once again.

From here on out I'm going to stick it out and only play one $1 Chris Ferguson tournament a day (as there is only one a day) whenever I get back in the money. While I'm going to have to focus on getting used to the style of play each time, I think that will actually play into my strategy of patience well as it will force me to be even more patient at the beginning of each tournament so that I can gauge the tables better. Hopefully by focusing on one tournament a day I will be able to take it more seriously as well and that will enable me to really focus on my game and my strategies.

Game Recap - Full Tilt US Freeroll

2008-01-03T22:07:00.001-05:00

Current Bankroll: $9 - 300k Play Chips

Woot! First multi-table freeroll cash-out ever! Definitely a well-played tournament, and that is what counts most of all.

The first hour was a bit tough as I missed every single flop when I had a good starting hand and despite making a bit back here and there on small bluffs I was soon missing a third of my starting stack and at the 10BB limit. Finally ATs more than doubled me up when I flopped a straight. Then some pocket queens and a set of 9s later and I was sitting in 17 of 817 of 2700 starters just as the hour finished. It's always nice when patience pays off so well.

10:20 (17 of 724) - QJs in middle position with one 3xBB raiser from under the gun so I call. Everyone else folds. Flop is T88 rainbow and he raises 3xBB again but I'm pretty sure he didn't hit that flop after raising pre-flop so I reraise him another 3xBB. He calls pretty quickly. Turn is a 2 and he checks it to me so I bet 9xBB and he calls again pretty quickly. At this point I'm not sure if he is sitting on a high pocket pair or in fact has a ten.

When the river is a 7 and he immediately checks it to me again. I'm a little worried that he is letting me push the pot when he has the nuts, but I just can't give him credit for slowplaying the ten so well and I can get him to lay down just about any other hand with a decent bet so I bet about 3/4 of the pot thinking that that will be just enough to get him to lay down anything but a ten. He indeed folds and I take down a decent pot although don't seem to move up at all in the rankings.

10:23 (17 of 700) - AQo from late position with one 3xBB raise from the same guy as before in front of me so I call. Flop is Q98 rainbow giving me top pair top kicker, he checks it to me and I put in a small raise hoping for a call and I get it. Turn is a 5, he checks, so I bet half the pot and he calls again.

A ten on the river puts out a one-card straight and he bets nearly the full pot. I was pretty sure I had him up until this point but even though I found it hard to believe he was in fact chasing that inside-straight draw I just couldn't bring myself to make that call. Tough fold, but I think it was probably best to avoid such a large risk at that point even though my stack could easily have absorbed it.

12:06 (14 of 77) - Nothing very interesting happened for nearly two hours and despite building my stack up very slowly, it wasn't fast enough to keep up with the speed of the tournament and I had soon dropped down to the bottom quarter in the standings. Finally a pair of queens showed up in the hole. One 3xBB raise and a call in front of me so I just call from late position thinking that the raise is already enough minimize the callers and that I might be able to disguise my hand and minimize my losses should an ace or queen come down on the flop. The BB also called so 4 to the flop.

Flop was a beautiful 752 rainbow and the original raiser puts in a half-pot raise. The next guy pushes over the top all-in for 2/3 my stack. There is no way I can put him on AA or KK since he didn't reraise pre-flop, so I figure he has a lower pocket pair, possibly a 7 or even that he is bluffing completely. The only thing I am really worried about is a set, but I have trouble giving him credit for calling that preflop raise with such a low pocket pair. I call, BB folds and the original raiser calls.

A king comes on the turn and the original raiser checks to me. I'm pretty worried about him holding a king since he was the original raiser both preflop and on the flop and his best move if he did in fact hold a king would definitely be to check since he will have a much better chance of getting the rest of my stack off of me on the river so I decide to check too.

A 9 on the river and he checks to me again. I'm pretty sure this means I'm ahead and there is no sense in risking the rest of my stack just to win a little more so I decide to check it down again. He flips over AJo and the all-in has pocket tens. I was quite happy with my reads on that hand and it was definitely a relief to finally pull down a slightly larger pot putting me back into the comfort zone.

12:34 (7 of 49) JJ on the button, two callers ahead of me so I raise 4xBB. Two callers. Flop is 56T with two clubs and the guy in front of me raises half the pot. I figure I've got him beat so I reraise. Other player folds and the raiser calls my raise. Turn is an 8 of spades and he checks so I raise half the pot (which was also half my stack) and he comes over the top pushing me all-in. I'm a little afraid of a set, but I'm hoping he would have pushed me all in on the flop if he had hit the set there and there is no way he would have called my reraise with pocket 8s so he couldn't have hit a set on the turn. I'm a bit more worried about aces, kings or queens but I can't fold on this huge pot with less than 10BB left in my stack for fear of one of those hands so I call. He flips over A8 of clubs and I survive the river to take down a monster pot throwing me from 28th to 7th and nearly a shoe-in for the money if I can avoid any bad situations over the next hour or so.

1:12 (14 of 27) In the money for the first time ever in one of these crazy freerolls. That's $2 in the bank for now :) Next payout increase is at 9th place going up to $3.

1:55 (2 of 10) Doubled up big time against the chip leader when my Q8o in the BB completed a straight on the turn despite an 8 dropping on the river. When the 8 fell I decided to check it to him giving him a chance to bluff since there was no way he was calling any bet without the queen and it worked perfectly as he put me all in, doubling me up to second place!

1:56 (2 of 9) Final table and up to $3! Payout structure from here on out is: 1st - $15, 2nd - $12, 3rd - $9, 4th - $7, 5th - $6, 6th - $5, 7th - $4.

2:08 (2 of 7) Seeing a lot of aggressive action with mediocre hands as the number of players drops. I pick up QJo in late position and raise it up 1xBB and get a call from big stack who has me outchipped nearly 3 to 1. Flop is 48A with two hearts and he raises 1xBB. I don't think he would have just called with a strong ace, so I figure I can definitely take him off this pot. Rather than do it now, which would be a bit obvious I decided to make it look like I am milking him so I simply reraise another 1xBB.

He quickly calls and with a 3 of spades on the turn raises another 2xBB. I again reraise another 2xBB and he calls. King of hearts comes on the turn putting out a possible flush but he checks to me and I just can't imagine he would have done that had he hit the flush so I put out a half-pot sized bet hoping it is just enough to make him fold and it works perfectly picking me up a nice sized pot.

2:19 (5 of 5) Took a big hit after raising with preflop with K9s and getting reraised all-in from the small stack for about half my stack and I decided to call. He flipped over AKo shutting me out pretty bad and dropping me to last place.

2:23 (3 of 3) Other two players dropped like flies and I'm stuck going into the final 3 with about a third of the stack of the guy in second place. Big stack folds to me in the SS and with K7o I decide to raise it up. BB calls. 335 rainbow on the flop looks safe enough for a bluff so I bet 2xBB. He raises me up to about half my stack and thinking that there is a good chance he is trying to steal my bluff and that I can't really afford to fold here I decide to push all in hoping my king high is actually good enough even if he calls. He flips over pockets 7s though and I'm out in third with a cash-out of $9.

Maybe I could have waited a bit longer in the final 3 to make a move since I was still at about the 10xBB limit, but I think I grabbed at a good opportunity and it just didn't pay off. I was so far behind at that point anyway that I couldn't really afford to wait for a better opportunity so I think it was a good decision.

Analysis
Despite a tough start, after surviving my first all-in and doubling up I only had to survive one more all in before reaching the top 3 and busting out in third. That means I was able to build my stack slowly and methodically without risking too much in any one hand. That is definitely the only way to survive one of these huge tournaments, and I am really happy about my discipline tonight that kept me focused and patient enough to make that possible.

I didn't really take any nasty hits but I think that was due more to avoiding bad situations rather than blind luck. But more importantly I was able to stay away from the point where a bad beat would have crippled me anyway so that is definitely the lesson of the night.

While that may be a bit of an obvious lesson it is definitely something that I will try to keep as underlying goal in future tournaments. As it is a bit general though I'm going to focus one key aspect of my game tonight that I think made it possible, something that I think may be lacking in my current cash game play which may be the reason I am suffering so much at the cash tables. That aspect is the discipline to keep pots small and not try to buy out pots with huge bets. It doesn't take much to bluff somebody when they are in fact bluffable and in most cases a smaller bet is more disguised as a bluff than a large one which can practically scream your real intentions. But more importantly, getting yourself involved in pots that are large enough to cripple your stack too frequently is a recipe for disaster because it leaves little room for error. Especially given that I am far from a pro poker player I need to give myself as much room for error as possible.

Patience pays off in the long run even if it makes for really tough poker when things aren't going your way, and while it is one of the toughest things to stay consistent with, if you focus on it, it is one of the easiest ways to bring your game out of a slump.

Anyway, I am really excited about this awesome finish! Having never cashed in one of these huge, multi-table freerolls and to suddenly hit 3rd place is fantastic. While $9 isn't my biggest tournament cash-out yet, it is the highest in any freeroll and second overall, nearly doubling my previous second-best cash-out of $5 in Full Tilt's 400k Play Chip $40 Freeroll.

Hopefully I'll be able to put these $9 to good use if I can continue to play as well as I did tonight. Especially given my sudden awful cash-game play at the play chip tables and my teetering play chip bankroll it will definitely be a relief not to have to address that problem and to finally move over to the real money tables for good. Here's to a successful 2008!

A Quick Bust

2007-12-29T02:00:00.000-05:00

Current Bankroll: $0 - 600K Play Chips

Took another shot at "The Ferguson" $1 tourney on Full Tilt tonight, but busted out quite quickly. Folded almost every hand for the first half hour until I finally picked up queens in late position. One raiser in front and it folded around to me so naturally I reraised it. It folded back around to the original raiser who raised me up again so I pushed over the top all-in. These are the kind of hands you wait for in these over-aggressive low-buy-in tourneys and I was quite confident I had a big enough advantage to put my tourney life on the line.

I was quite happy to see him flip over 66, but my happiness was short-lived when he completed quads on the flop and I was drawing dead. Out in 1028 of 1637 in just under a half-hour of play.

Oh well, I waited for my chance and then got myself into the perfect situation and it just didn't pay off. But that's poker for you. I'll just have to keep taking a stab at this one and eventually it's bound to pay off.

I've definitely been having some trouble putting in the hours at the play chip tables since coming back so I'm going to have to push myself to grind it out just a bit longer. I certainly can't wait to finally move up in limits though so that I can play some real poker. But I imagine this tournament will have some good poker once it gets down to the money so I just have to get a chance to see that happen.

Game Recap - The Ferguson $1 Tournament

2007-12-28T02:05:00.000-05:00

Started off with some ups and downs as the donks made for some crazy play early on, but I managed to survive it and settle in for some decent poker after about half the field was out and I was back at about my starting stack with the blinds only doubled.

50 minutes into the game sitting at 239 of 572 after I picked up a nice double-up plus some with AKo on the button when a guy in front of me pushed all-in and I got another caller after I came over the top all-in. Don't like this all-in poker, but hopefully now that I'm not sitting at the bottom I can avoid it for a bit.

Took a hit ten minutes later when I thought I caught a guy bluffing in position on a crap flop that was checked to him, but he had the top pair and suddenly I'm down to 404 of 477 and barely over the 10BB threshold going into the break. Looks like I'll need another all-in save to get back into things, but I'll see if I can pull a genuine hand or two before resorting to that.

First hand after break I pick up AQs in the small blind and with the blinds up I'm now below the 10BB threshold. One raise in front and otherwise folded to me so I decide to push all-in. BB folds and raiser flips over JJ which hold up and I'm out in 475th place.

Not sure I played it perfectly and with that big misread in the middle when I was sitting pretty well in chips hurt pretty bad, but it still felt good just to be back at the tables.

Despite the crazy ups and downs of this tournament I have to admit I like the fast play and with the almost 16% cash-in rate I think it probably provides me with the best bang for my buck at this level. I'll definitely be playing more of these when they show up...

A Long Month

2007-12-28T01:43:00.000-05:00

Current Bankroll: $2 - 600K Play Chips

It's been a very long month with finals at school and then preparing for the holidays. I'm just now hitting the tables for the first time in almost 4 weeks, and it feels like it's been forever. I just fired up a $1 "Chris Ferguson" tournament at Full Tilt Poker but sitting down a bit already at 723 of 834. 1357 started and top 216 cash so we'll see if I can hang on.

Hopefully I'll have plenty of time for poker now that winter break has started and Christmas is over.

I Got Hammered!

2007-12-02T17:41:00.000-05:00

Wow, I was just playing in one of Full Tilt's $100 Freerolls and had worked my way into the top 300, sitting at just over 20xBB when I looked down at QJo in late position and one limper in front of me. Blinds were 200/400 with a 50 chip ante so I raised it up to 2000. One caller.

Flop comes down 257 rainbow and he checks to me. I figure there is no way he hit that flop after calling a 2000 chip raise preflop so I raise the pot nearly putting myself all-in. He immediately comes over the top forcing me all-in. At this point I realized I've screwed up pretty bad since any ace or king will be ahead of me, but I'm pretty much screwed if I fold so I decide to take a chance at hitting something on the next two cards. I call.

He flips over 72o, the Hammer, for two pair and I realize I'm drawing dead. I don't know what he was thinking calling a 5xBB raise with the hammer, but it sure paid off nicely for him. I can't imagine that kind of play will pay off in the long run though. I guess he was planning on taking a chance at bluffing me off the pot if I missed, but he has to consider that I might have a pocket pair and there just aren't enough flops that allow you to bluff someone off of their high pocket pairs.

I definitely made a big mistake in that hand, but it still hurts to see someone making an idiotic play against you and getting lucky. But you can't focus on that because it will always happen. I will certainly learn from this mistake and try to slow down a bit when bluffing missed flops in the future.

Speaking of the hammer, I might as well give you an update on my Hammer Challenge. I finally took a couple of large losses so my ROI has dropped to 1.78 overall, but that still ranks it at 8th in my hand tracking ranks.

As always, you can keep track of my progress at PokerGeni.us

Game Recap - Full Tilt $1 Turbo MTT

2007-12-01T17:01:00.000-05:00

I took another shot at the $1 Turbo MTT over at Full Tilt tonight, this time with 998 entrants and cash going to the top 90 finishers.

Plan was to start out a bit slower than last night and really wait for some good hands to push. Even though it's a turbo tourney and you have to take some chances, I wanted to see if I could wait a bit longer than I did last night to start risking things.

5PM - 998 Players, first hand. Called the first hand with A8s, but folded to a raise pre-flop. I think I'll have avoid these drawing hands early on in tournaments since it seems a much higher percentage of the early hands get raised preflop and these hands rely on a cheap entry to the flop.

5:08PM - 838 Players, JJ on the button. 1 caller, so I call. Flop comes down 865 with two diamonds. Guy in front raises the pot, I reraise, he calls. 4 of diamonds on the turn puts up a straight and flush on the board and he raises the pot. Don't want to risk my tournament life just yet, so I fold.

5:10PM - 806 Players, very next hand, JJ again and I call. K66 rainbow flop, all check. 4 on the turn and SS bets half pot, BB calls and I decide to raise it up anticipating a weak K. SS calls and BB pushes all in, so I have to give him credit for the 6 and fold. SS calls and turns over K3o and the BB turns of 26o. Good fold, but pretty stupid raise considering I was up against the SS and BB I should have given them much more credit for the possibility of at least one of them having a 6. Even without a 6, it's probably unlikely that they will be folding a king, even with a weak kicker given the fast pace of this tournament, so a bluff there is completely unnecessary and suicidal. Definitely a big mistake and now I'm down to 580 in chips, blinds are at 25/50 so it's push or fold from here on out.

5:14PM - 736 Players, QTs in BB. Was getting ready to push but a guy pushes all in for 2,300 in front of me and I have to give him credit for a high pocket pair so I fold. Down to 505 after the blinds and the blinds move up to 30/60 so it's looking pretty bleak.

5:19PM - 676 Players, pocket 55s and two all-ins in front of me, but it was the same guy as before and he had pushed all in with mediocre hands 4 times since the last time I was considering calling. 4 overcards between the two of them, but my 55s hold up and I'm back up to 1605.

5:20PM - 652 players. Same guy pushes all in and I've got 77s so I take another shot at it, it seems this is how this game is going to be, but I lose and am back down to 845.

5:21PM - 638 players. Back to push or fold mode and get ATo on the next hand so I push all in and go up against AKs and he flops a flush knocking me out in 633rd place.

Damn, this tournament was much more of a donkfest than last night, and probably mostly due to the one crazy player at my table pushing all-in with any decent hand. I'm still not sure if I should have tried to stay out of it, but given my low stack and the speed at which the blinds were going up I didn't have much of a choice. Perhaps after doubling up I could have waited for a better opportunity to take another shot, but then again how much do I really want to just play push-or-fold poker? I think I'll be skipping this tournament from now on. It sounded like a good shot at moving my bankroll up, but it is worse than the 2700 player freerolls in that everyone is just pushing all-in preflop and not playing any real poker. I don't think that is the best learning experience for me so I'm going to stick to non-turbo tournaments from now on.

Game Recap - Full Tilt $1 Turbo MTT

2007-11-30T17:13:00.001-05:00

Current Bankroll: $1 - 600K Play Chips

I played a $1 Turbo MTT (868 players, top 81 cash) over at Full Tilt tonight. Couldn't catch a hand and busted out pretty quickly in 560th. Here's a recap of the game if anyone's interested. Comments would be greatly appreciated.

A few hands in, ATo on the button, 1 limper so I raise it up to 3xBB, 1 caller. Board comes down 882 rainbow, and we both check it. Ten on the turn sets me up nicely and he checks it to me so I raise 400 (pot size). He comes over the top all-in for just another 200 so I pretty much have to call. He flips over K8o, nasty. I probably should have raised smaller on the turn to give myself a chance to get out of the hand if he re-raised, but then again, I had a real tough time giving him credit for the 8 after my pre-flop raise. Perhaps my preflop raise wasn't large enough...

Now sitting at just over 10xBB and I get KQo on the very next hand so I decide to push all in. No callers so I pick up the blinds.

KQo again the next hand, but this time I'm not quite as low in chips so I only raise 3xBB. Flop comes 366 rainbow. One other player and we both check it. Q on the turn gives me my hand so I raise the pot, he re-raises all-in and flips over QJo which makes me pretty happy until another six comes down on the river and splits the pot. Nasty.

Another couple rounds of the blinds and I'm sitting below 10xBB. It folds around to the SS who raises it up 3xBB. I decide to push with 39s thinking he may be trying to buy the pot and he didn't have me covered by enough to call if he doesn't have anything. Unfortunately he's holding KQs and insta-calls. Nothing on the board and I'm out.

Not quite sure if I could have played it better. Perhaps I was a bit aggressive, but given that it was a turbo tourney I think that is probably the style required to stay ahead of the blinds. Pretty much every hand was my usual style of play and it just didn't pay off a single time tonight...

Bankroll Update and Other News

2007-11-29T09:14:00.000-05:00

Current Bankroll: $2 - 700K Play Chips

I haven't had hardly any time to fire up the poker tables in the past week, and have become really antsy to get some decent time at the tables in. I got a bit too impatient the other night and bought into the nightly 500K Play Chip $40 Freeroll at Full Tilt despite being way below the 2M Play Chip minimum that I set for myself as a rule to limit my buy-in for this tournament. I managed to cash in the tournament and get my real money bankroll back in the green, but it has put my play chip bankroll in some very sketchy territory. I'm going to have to really be disciplined and force myself to wait until I've built my play chip bankroll back up to 2M before buying into the 500K play chip freeroll again, so it could be a little while before I'm able to pick up a couple more dollars with the amount of time I've had to play lately.

I recently noticed that my bankroll graph had disappeared, and upon further investigation the table in my database holding the info seems to have been deleted. I didn't have a backup, and neither did my host, so it looks like the first month of my bankroll challenge has been lost in the cyber void. I guess it's not that big a deal since I haven't really gotten anywhere yet, but I still feel a bit sad about not having the challenge on the graph from the very beginning.

In more positive news, Burnley Mik is back with a new blog, Donkey Thrasher, as part of the new UK Poker Scene, a group of UK poker bloggers centered around the Raise the River community. These guys are always a great read, so the site is definitely worth a look.

Taking it Live

2007-11-24T03:18:00.001-05:00

I played a live tournament for the first time in quite a while tonight. It was part of the local free poker league, and there were about 40 players. I played a really solid, aggressive game that seemed to pay off as nobody really wanted to play ball with me. I made it to the final table with the second largest stack, but the blinds were already so high that people started dropping every hand. I ended up having to take a couple gambles which paid off nicely and gave me a chance to go heads up with close to even chips. My opponent didn't seem to have much knowledge of heads-up play and folded almost half her stack to me before winning a couple showdowns and then folding it right back to me. Finally her luck at the showdown ran out and the tournament was mine.

I can't say that I was too impressed with the overall play in the tournament, but it still felt good to play a solid poker game and come out on top. Playing live made me realize how much I miss the human interaction and the interesting psychology that is so much more relevant in live games. I felt like I was able to really get good reads on my opponents tonight and take advantage of their lack of reticence.

I'm definitely going to try to play more live games in the near future because, while it won't necessarily get me closer to my bankroll goals, it will definitely help to keep me focused and motivated on the game and should allow me to improve my skills much more rapidly than in online poker since you have to spend so much time just focusing on your game and not multi-tabling.

Odds of Pocket Pair Hitting Set on the Flop

2007-11-22T05:03:00.000-05:00

The other day I was taking a look at the odds of flopping no overcards with high pocket pairs and that got me thinking about what the basic odds are of flopping a set with any pocket pairs. I seem to remember someone once telling me it was about 1:6, but it never seemed that good in reality so I thought I'd actually do the math.

The odds should be 2:50 + 2:49 + 2:48 since those are your odds of hitting one of the two remaining cards on each card in the flop. That would give you about a 12% chance or 1:8.16 odds of flopping the set, not nearly the 1:6 that I had been thinking all along. That means that you have to make back more than 8BB every time you hit a set to make up for the cost of calling and folding the other 7 times.

With higher pocket pairs you can factor in the odds that you will have top pair on the flop, but even this doesn't increase your odds of seeing a nice flop very often with anything but the best pocket pairs.

Fortunately sets on the flop have a way of paying off quite nicely and so it is usually possible to play pocket pairs cheaply and see a decent return, but there really isn't much room for error, so don't go calling any raises with them because that will throw off your ratios enough that it will be hard to make back any losses.

I think I will be playing low pocket pairs less often when I am short-stacked in tournaments from now on because they just aren't worth the risk when you can't afford to lose many chips. I had always viewed low pocket pairs as a chance to hit big when you are really needing it, but with worse than 1:8 odds of actually hitting a set I'm not so sure they are worth the risk unless you can afford to lose those other 7 times.

In cash games and when you have a large stack in a tournament, low and medium pocket pairs are probably worth the investment if you can be frugal about it, but you still have to be careful with them though because the fact that they hit the set fewer than 1 in 8 times makes it harder than it looks to keep them in the green in the long run.

But pocket pairs are still your best bet preflop when you need to go heads up against an opponent for a good chance to double up, so they'll still hold a special place in my arsenal for those critical tournament moments.

Another Bustout

2007-11-22T03:42:00.000-05:00

Current Bankroll: $0 - 1M Play Chips

I took another shot at the real money tables tonight a bit earlier than scheduled. I haven't been able to work the nightly 500K Play Chip $40 Freeroll at Full Tilt into my schedule lately and was getting a bit antsy at the long wait. Things didn't go nearly as well as I hoped and I ended up busting out after 64 hands without winning a single showdown or pot larger than 5BB. I started out a bit too aggressive and lost some chips to stronger hands, but even after tightening up I couldn't seem to avoid some nasty situations that just ate up my bankroll. The final nail in the coffin was a J7o that had called my preflop raise and hit two-pair on the flop. I was too low in chips at that point to have much of a chance of getting away from my KJo especially with such a weak looking flop (J74 rainbow).

I can't say that I'm terribly frustrated with my play since it was mostly bad hits that took me out, but I am definitely disappointed with myself for not sticking to the original plan of waiting until I had a full buy-in before hitting the cash tables again. That combined with the fact that my play chip bankroll is not in a very good position either put me in a pretty nasty position right now. I'm basically back at square one with a long way to go to get back into things. I guess this is one of those critical times when you find out just how dedicated you are. Hopefully I can have the strength to force myself to return to the original discipline that I started this project with and which has carried me so far already. That's what I'll be focusing on for the next couple days anyway.

Are You a Genius?

2007-11-20T10:44:00.000-05:00

I picked this up over at Bill Rini's blog. Not sure how it works, or what it means, but apparently you have to be a genius to understand my blog, so if you're reading this, congratulations.

Hmm... Let the viral advertising spread...

Why I Hate Pocket Jacks

2007-11-18T17:42:00.000-05:00

Pocket jacks, like queens, kings and aces, are always a fresh sight when you turn up the edges of your cards, but lately I've been getting a little more uneasy at the sight of those knaves.

Your first instinct when you see those young men staring lazily back at you is to get your money in the pot as quickly as possible so that you can start raking in the returns. Jacks, like any high pocket pair feel so invincible since you've already made a hand and so you've got to be ahead of almost every other hand out there preflop.

But when you think about the possible flop scenarios that could happen, perhaps jacks aren't quite as invincible as they first look.

There are 103,776 possible flop combinations (48*47*46) when you consider the 50 cards in the deck you have yet to see minus the other two jacks which would give you a set. Of those 103,776, there are 50,616 (38*37*36) possible flop combinations that don't include at least one ace, king or queen, leaving you 1:2.05 odds of flopping top possible pair or a set. When compared to 1:1 for aces, 1:1.13 for kings and 1:1.5 for queens, the jacks are suddenly not looking quite so hot.

Of course this doesn't take into account the fact that by raising preflop you should only be going up against one or two other players on the flop at which point you have good odds that they won't improve. But the problem is, by raising preflop you can be relatively certain that when they do improve you will be beat, which leaves you in the same situation as any other low pocket pair.

The main reason that high pocket pairs are so lucrative is because you can often make a good amount off of someone flopping top pair when you've still got them beat. But as your pair gets lower, the odds of you still having top pair on the flop get smaller and smaller. At a certain point you have to treat all low pocket pairs the same because you are simply playing them cheap for a chance to hit trips or fold.

Playing pocket pairs with overcards on the board is a very tough situation to be in. You can't really count your ability to outplay your opponent in the strength of the hand, and so basically you can only really consider your odds of flopping top pair when considering whether to raise preflop with a pocket pair.

Of course this doesn't take into account the million other reasons why you might raise preflop, and only considers your expected value based purely on odds. As many a wise man has said before me, in poker you play your opponent, not your cards, but it is good to at least understand your odds in every situation.

As such, I've become much more tentative about playing pocket jacks hard preflop. I think they are probably much more lucrative when played cheaply preflop because you don't really have the correct odds to hit top possible pair on the flop, and so most of the time they will end up in the same position as any low pocket pair after the flop.

Quote of the Day: Morans

2007-11-17T01:25:00.000-05:00

Wow, I can't believe I just discovered this post on the 2+2 Forums. I don't think I've ever read all the way through a 30+ page post before, but this one is definitely worth it. Here's a key quote:

DO THE MATH MORAN! POCKET PAIR OUTS: 2. OVERCARD OUTS: 6. 2:6=1:3. OVERCARDS ARE A 3:1 FAVORITE.

Quote of the Day: Strong Hands

2007-11-16T20:31:00.000-05:00

Here's one from an excellent article over at Four Queens Poker titled The Weak Tight Disease:

How strong [your hand] is, should not be determined using some chart. What you really consider is the value of your hand relative to what the other players hold.

An Open Letter to the Digg Community: Why Digg Needs a Poker Category

2007-11-16T18:37:00.000-05:00

I recently suggested that Digg needs a poker category for poker related articles. For some reason there has already been quite a bit of resistance to this idea from the Digg community. My understanding of this resistance is that it is a reaction to all the poker related spam that currently surfaces on Digg.

Unfortunately due to the fact that there is no poker category, people who would post legitimate poker articles don't bother because there is no category to post them in and so the only people who are posting poker related links on Digg are the spammers who tend to be a bit more determined than your average user.

This means that the only contact with the poker world that the Digg community experiences is at the hands of spammers whom they viciously hate.

I understand that the poker industry is full of promotions and advertising and that it has it's fair share of spammers (if not more so than other industries), but that doesn't mean that there aren't tons of interesting legitimate articles out that there as well that would make the Digg community a more diverse and interesting place.

What makes Digg such an amazing website is that it embraces community and diversity and allows the community decide what it wants to see and what it wants to bury. But what really makes it successful is the fact that it isn't just a collection of the most popular articles on the web, it actually allows the user to find the most popular articles in areas that the user is interested in.

Without categories, Digg is another list of popular websites that doesn't really serve the needs of the community. If you want to read articles on Apple, you can find them in the Apple category even if they weren't popular enough to make the front page. If you want to read articles on the upcoming election, there is even a category for that.

But if you want to read articles about poker, you have to use the search function, which is fine except for the fact that there aren't really any legitimate poker articles on Digg because people can't figure out which category to post them in.

With a category dedicated to poker, not only would you suddenly see all the legitimate websites and articles suddenly being posted, but people reading other categories wouldn't have to deal with the poker spam that currently plagues categories that have nothing to do with poker.

With a poker category you could let the people interested in poker deal with the poker spam, and you would be providing them with the same right to the great Digg that we all love by providing a category for them to post and find articles.

So please, to all you people out there who think that having a poker category on Digg would be bad for the community, please remember that the community isn't just the majority, or even limited to it's current members. The Digg community is the group of all people who have a legitimate use for the website, and as such we would be doing many people a disservice by continuing to deny them a place to post and find great poker articles.

Poker on Digg

2007-11-16T16:10:00.000-05:00

**Editors Note** There has been some resistance to this idea from the current Digg community. Please see my response: An Open Letter to the Digg Community: Why Digg Needs a Poker Category.

I'm a big fan of Digg for finding interesting articles relating to technology and politics, but I've noticed that when it comes to poker, Digg just plain sucks.

The poker community doesn't seem to have embraced Digg as a means to find and promote interesting articles relating to poker, and I think that the main reason is that there is no real category for poker on Digg, and as such people are often confused as to which category to submit to. Some stories end up in Gaming > Playable Web Games, others in Sports > Other Sports, and even some in Offbeat News just to name a couple. I think that if there were an actual category on Digg specifically for poker we would find that there is quite a large online poker community ready to embrace Digg as a way to find and promote the best websites and news relating to poker.

As it stands now, there are several forums where poker aficionados find their poker news, but for the most part it is quite diluted across the web and there is really no central location that makes finding and promoting the best poker articles easy in the way that Digg does for other genres.

One of the great things about Digg is that they embrace the community and shape the website around what the community wants. I think that if we get the poker community interested in having a poker category on Digg and get enough people to push Digg to make it happen they will surely make it happen.

I am going to send an email to Digg to see if we can get a poker category added to Digg. I will suggest that they place it as a subcategory of both the Gaming and Sports categories. Before I send it though I want to get some proof that there are enough people interested in this. If you would like to be able to use Digg to find interesting poker articles, please Digg this story to show your support. Once there are 100 diggs I will write to Digg to let them know.

Hammer Takes the Lead

2007-11-15T17:29:00.000-05:00

I'm still less than 24 hours into the Hammer Challenge, but the Hammer has already climbed to the top of my hand rankings list with a whopping return of 2.3! Granted I have only logged 5 hands, so it's not exactly a scientific sampling but it's still pretty cool to see just how important playing situation really is. It's certain to round itself out pretty quickly after a couple losses get factored in, but for now it's flying high.

Quote of the Day: Lucksackery!

2007-11-15T16:37:00.000-05:00

Here's a great one from PokerTart in an awesome write-up about her recent Aussie Millions adventure:

And that’s when I realized that I was actually trying to outplay these guys. How stupid! That’s not how I won my way here, that’s not how I survived the days leading up to the final table…I made my way here by relying on my natural gift – lucksackery!

The whole post had me literally rolling over. Definitely worth a read.

The Hammer Challenge

2007-11-14T16:52:00.001-05:00

Just out of curiosity I'm going to start playing the hammer (72o) in cash games from now on and track my results to see if I can actually bring in a positive return. This should be an excellent lesson in reading the other player and playing the situation correctly versus just playing your cards. I've gotten myself way to odds focused lately, so hopefully this can get me thinking about situational play and reading my opponent more.

Here are some rules I'm going to lay down for myself to keep this under control:

This challenge only applies to cash games. Play the hammer as usual in tournaments.

Fold to the first raise, whether before your action or after your raise.

Never make more than one stab at the pot after the flop unless you think the guy is on a draw.

There it is, pretty simple. These rules should keep me from doing anything too stupid with it, and even if it holds me back a bit, folding to a reraise only gives me better odds of getting my strong hands paid off later.

I'll post updates on where I stand periodically. I've also set up my hand tracker so that it can be viewed publicly. You can follow my Hammer Challenge progress there: PokerGeni.us

New Personal Record

2007-11-14T01:12:00.000-05:00

Current Bankroll: $2 - 1.4M Play Chips

I just reached a new personal record in Full Tilt's 2700-player $100 Freeroll. Played a real solid night before taking a bad loss late in the game and finding myself in blinds trouble with 32 left. I dropped to 28K with the blinds at 5K and had to push preflop with pocket 8s. Big stack called and hit an ace on the turn to send me packing.

It was a really great learning experience. I had previously not taken these huge multi-table freerolls very seriously because the game play is so loose and crazy early on and it takes so long to get anywhere near the money, but after experiencing the play later in the game I think they are actually a really good way to practice your multi-table tourney game. Once the 2600 or so donks donk themselves out you are left with a group of really solid poker players who know how to make a good game interesting.

I'm still a bit disappointed at having just missed the bubble, but I'm glad I was able to experience what these large freerolls can really be. I'll definitely be setting aside more time for these tournaments when I can. It took me 4 hours to reach 32 players left, so it was definitely a huge time investment, but the game play towards the end made it all worth it.

It's good to be able to feel excited about something after a tough loss like that, especially after busting in the 500K Play Chip $40 Freeroll earlier in the night, but it's good to have positive momentum going forward into the next couple days. I may still be in the murky depths of a nearly non-existent bankroll, but I'm gaining so much experience in the process I can't help but feel like I am on an inevitable trend upwards.

When to Fold Kings

2007-11-13T22:14:00.000-05:00

When you are sitting in 16th place with 21 left and the bubble is at 18 you probably still want to at least see a flop with pocket kings, but if the next pay increase is at 2nd place and you are in position to basically fold your way into the money, it's probably not worth it to risk your tournament life for a chance to pick up some more chips. No matter how big the pot is, it will never be large enough to offset the risk of missing the money, even if the risk is minimal. Those extra chips won't do much to increase your chances of reaching the next pay-out level, and so putting any amount of risk on your tournament life in this situation is a negative expected value in the long run. Fold your kings, and probably even your aces.

Somehow that sage advice is always harder to follow in the heat of the action though. I played a great game through the 500K Play Chip $40 Freeroll on Full Tilt tonight. It was a bit of a roller-coaster ride when a guy pushed all-in in front of me for about two-thirds my stack and I couldn't fold my pocket aces. He hit a flush on the river and sent me into survival mode. I played some excellent poker though and managed to work my way back up to 16th place with 21 players left when my kings showed up. I naturally couldn't resist calling a big raise from a big stack in front of me who had been playing real aggressive and taking advantage of the extremely tight play this close to the bubble. I didn't take the time to fully analyze the situation like I did above, and had I done that I easily would have folded my way into the money, but no, I acted rashly in the heat of the moment with what on the surface looks to be a good opportunity. Sure I probably had him beat by a mile, but that's not the point. It's really irrelevant that he had pocket 9s and hit his set on the flop because the outcome in poker is never under your control. You can only control your own decisions and actions, and this one was clearly a bad one. I may have had the odds to not get busted most of the time, but at that point in the tournament even a 5% chance of busting out is way too high a risk to take with almost any possible return given the distance to the next pay-out increase..

I've got a discussion going over at Raise the River about this hand if you're interested.

They say tournament play is all about situation, and this hand proves that more than anything else. It's not worth crying over bad beats unless you can learn from the situation, so hopefully I've learned a good lesson while the stakes are still only $2. Although $2 is like a million bucks for my bankroll right now :)

So much for my streak of 5-straight cashes in this nightly tournament. It's always good to recognize that it was my bad decision that cost me the game tonight though. Always recognizing errors and improving on my play is what this bankroll challenge is all about, so at least I've gained something valuable tonight.

On another positive note, I'm currently sitting at 73 of 170 in one of the huge 2700 player tourneys on Full Tilt so it looks like I may break my record of 75th. Who knows, maybe there's a couple dollars in store for my bankroll tonight after all. I'll post an update on that one in a bit if things go well.