SB Nation Recent Baseball Posts

Chum Bucket

craig, FishStripes — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:05:06 -0000

The race is on to see whether or not the Tuesday Chum Bucket will actually be posted on Tuesday. Since we're so close tomorrow let's see what is on the docket , the GM meetings wrap up on Wednesday, the SB Nation will announce the Cy Young award winners and some of you lucky ones have a midweek holiday. For us unlucky ones, it is just the regular old hump day, as it is sometimes called.

In the meantime it is a normal Chum Bucket, got a topic of interest on your mind, this is the place to express it. And it is conceivable that someone will jump into the discussion, it has happened before. So have at it.

And always, Have a Great Rest of the Night!

SB Nation Writers Vote: NL/AL Rookie of the Year

Eli Greenspan, MLB Daily Dish — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:32:32 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

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Take a look at who the baseball writers of SB Nation voted for Rookie of the Year in the National League:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

And in the American League:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

Some pretty interesting results if you ask me. Let's hear what you guys think! Sound off in the comment box below.

Is Edwin Jackson On the Trade Market?

Ian Casselberry, Bless You Boys — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Might the Detroit Tigers make Edwin Jackson sweat out the winter, wondering where he could play next?

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As a Detroit Tigers fan, you might presume that the team would field offers for virtually any player on the roster. It seems like a smart approach. Why not see what other teams might be willing to give up in return, even if you're not really serious about making a trade?

So when Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal report "multiple major league sources" are telling them that the Tigers are putting Edwin Jackson on the trading block, it might seem like business as usual during the offseason.

But what if Detroit is looking to deal Jackson as way of keeping payroll down for next season? The sources who spoke with Morosi and Rosenthal said that was the case.

Perhaps this shouldn't be surprising for a team locked into paying almost $100 million to nine players next season. Yet Jackson also looked to be a cornerstone of next year's pitching staff, which presumably would once again be the strength of the team.

As you might expect, Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski was vague when asked about the situation:

"We're listening to a lot of different things," he said. "People are talking to us about different stuff. I think we're open-minded, based on the fact that we didn't win a championship."

When asked directly about Jackson, he refused to get into specifics. And he didn't indicate whether any sort of deal was in the works or close to being made. But other executives around baseball are apparently doing the talking for him.

Are the Tigers worried about what sort of raise Jackson would get next season, due to arbitration? Dombrowski's never had a player go to a hearing since he's been with Detroit. But the team would have to pay up to avoid the process, as they did last year (and will have to do again this year) with Justin Verlander. Maybe the Tigers feel they can afford to give only one of their pitchers a big raise.

Last year, Jackson made $2.2 million. After a season in which he won 13 games, was among the top ten lowest ERAs among AL starting pitchers, and up until September, was considered the team's second-best pitcher, would he be in line for twice that salary? $4 million? Maybe more?

Perhaps the Tigers are also concerned about Jackson's September tailspin, and wonder if he can sustain a high level of performance over a full season. In his last seven starts, Jackson posted a 3-3 record and 6.14 ERA, while giving up 50 hits in 44 innings. Opposing hitters began to lay off his slider (perhaps because he was tipping it), forcing him to throw more pitches, and taking him out of ballgames earlier.

This could be a classic "sell high" circumstance for the Tigers. Trading away a lower salaried player who's still under club control for two more seasons isn't typically the way to keep payroll down. But the contracts that Detroit would surely prefer to trade - Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, or Nate Robertson - won't interest anyone. So if you're looking to trim payroll somewhere, it has to be done with a player another team would take. (This is Lynn Henning's thought process with trading Curtis Granderson, as well.)

This would also seem to confirm the worst fears about next year's budget. Just how much do the Tigers want to spend on payroll next season? Would they like to keep it in the $130 million range? Or do they plan on reducing it? If so, there's not much money to add a shortstop and closer, while also giving Verlander his raise. Unless some wiggle room is created. (Of course, a raise for Jackson was presumed in that budget, as well.)

So how does this development strike you? I'll admit I was a bit stunned to read this. But if Dombrowski wanted to make a big move, this might qualify.

Sean Rodriguez: Best Angels Prospect Performance #3

rghan, Halos Heaven — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:29:43 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

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3) Sean Rodriguez, 24 - 2B, OF, SS, AAA

.299/.400/.616 with 29 HRs and 9 SBs. +36 bat, -2 glove

Rodriguez has ranked among the Angels' top ten minor league performers every year going back to 2005, and in the top five three times. He's the only Halos' farmhand to do that, avoiding major injuries, prolonged slumps, or even bouts of just average performance. That's astounding, and it wouldn't surprise me if the value he accumulated over that 5 year period surpassed that of every other minor leaguer. I think he's going to find a niche for himself in Tampa and grow into an everyday player for them, most likely at second base.

Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

Edwin Jackson on the market?

Eli Greenspan, MLB Daily Dish — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:28:26 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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After having an All-Star season for the Tigers, started Edwin Jackson has been made available to trade.

The Tigers have made Jackson available on the trade market as part of an effort to alleviate their payroll crunch, multiple major league sources told FOXSports.com.

Jackson, who isn't eligible for free agency until after 2011, struggled down the stretch but ended up posting a respectable 3.62 ERA.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Edwin Jackson	13-9	33	33	1	0	0	0	214.0	200	93	86	27	70	161	3.62	1.26

Jackson would make sense for a pitching-hungry team like the Dodgers, who originally drafted the pitcher in 2001. After posting a 5.07 ERA in the second half of the season, his trade value is at a reasonable level.

Today has been a day of hypothetical trade proposals, so I have another one for you guys to chew on: What if the Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to the Mets for Luis Castillo, and then the Mets sent to Edwin Jackson to the Cubs for Milton Bradley.

Castillo, who hit .302 with a .387 on-base percentage, would take the place Placido Polanco and give the Tigers a solid lead off hitter for the 2010 season. He has two years and 12 million dollars remaining on his salary, which the Mets and Tigers could split.

The Cubs would have to assume a major chunk of Bradley's 21 million dollars left on his deal, probably around 12-14 million dollars. This has probably been the toughest hurdle for the Cubs in trying to move the disgruntled outfielder, who didn't do much at the plate in 2009 to justify his off-field antics.

Will Carroll calls out Josey Wales

Adam J. Morris, Lone Star Ball — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:46:59 -0000

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

My favorite so far came from Lone Star Ball, where a commenter ("Josey Wales") suggested that the Rays should add in a high quality arm in order to even up a deal of Nelson Cruz for Carl Crawford.

This will probably be the highlight of the offseason.

Washington Nationals: Manager Search...Mid-November Update.

Ed Chigliak, Federal Baseball — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Itsuo Inouye - AP

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The latest word on the Washington Nationals' skipper search comes via the TwitterFeed of SI.com's Jon Heyman, with Mr. Heyman writing:

"#nats gm mike rizzo says they'll announce their manager this week. they did interview valentine. riggleman also in mix."

This news, of course, goes along with this morning's reports, by Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin and FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal which both said that the Nationals were close to deciding who would guide the nation's capital's favorite baseball team through the 2010 season and (hopefully) beyond...

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• DC Skipper Search: What "They're" Saying...

• Former DC GM Jim Bowden on Lastings Milledge.

DC Skipper Search: What "They're" Saying...

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal first quotes DC GM Mike Rizzo, in an article entitled, "Source: Valentine a finalist to be Nats manager", stating that Jim Riggleman, who ended the season as the Nationals' Interim Manager, "...is one of the finalists," for the opening on the Nationals' bench, but Mr. Rosenthal's "major league sources" tell him, "Bobby Valentine is the other," skipper still under consideration. While Valentine would be, in Mr. Rosenthal's estimation, "a more dynamic choice" Mr. Rosenthal concedes that, "Riggleman appears to be the favorite," since, as previously reported elsewhere, "...(the) Nationals ownership is believed to prefer an inexpensive manager," plus:

"The Nats' biggest concern with Valentine is whether he can stomach losing as they go through their rebuilding process."

Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin, who cites Mr. Rosenthal as, "for my money the best reporter in the business" in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "The manager search nears resolution", agrees with Mr. Rosenthal's assessment of the Nationals' concerns about Valentine, and goes on to say that the decision comes down to "a referendum of sorts on how the Nationals' braintrust (and its ownership) views its own team,":

"You don't hire someone like Valentine unless you think the team is close to contending -- let's say, a year or two away."

What sort of message does staying with Riggleman send to the fans then? In Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin's full article on the impending decision entitled, "Nats search for manager could lead to Riggleman", Mr. Sheinin writes "the more conservative move" of promoting Jim Riggleman to the full-time position would allow the team to, "...reevaluate the position a year or two from now, when the team, theoretically, is closer to contending." I wonder how the idea of "Placeholder Jim" will go over with the DC Faithful?

Riggleman or Valentine?

• Former DC GM Jim Bowden on Lastings Milledge.

Former DC GM Jim Bowden is appearing on MLB on XM's "Power Alley" along with Seth Everett this week, and a caller today asked Mr. Bowden why things didn't work out for Lastings Milledge in DC? Mr. Bowden's response:

"...We saw Milledge as a corner outfielder and not as a center fielder. Um, and so, then what happened is, we were never able to acquire a center fielder, and finally Mike Rizzo, after he became General Manager, was able to get Nyjer Morgan from the Pirates, so they had to get a center fielder...Um, you know, Lastings Milledge is a guy that still has not had the at bats to see what he could do, he's got tremendous bat speed, um, and so certainly he's going to get that opportunity in Pittsburgh next to McCutchen(Andrew), and if he can hit second in the lineup and force feed some fastballs, you know, I still think he can be a .280, 20 homer, 80 RBI guy for a long time, he's got great make-up, he definitely had a falling out, he missed a meeting with Manny (Acta), um, as soon as he missed that meeting they optioned him out, um, and from that standpoint on, um, I think they wanted to move him, uh, somewhere else...I think if they had a spot for him in left field they might have kept him, but a chance to get a center fielder, it was a baseball decision, which you certainly have to understand."

Meeting with Acta? Eh...whatever...

SB Nation Baseball Awards (ROY Edition)

craig, FishStripes — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:17:27 -0000

Here are the results of the NL Rookie of the Year as voted on by the SB Nation bloggers.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

GameFish and I both put Chris Coghlan #1 and then neither of us can remember what order we placed Hanson and Happ. But they were #2 and #3 on our ballots.

My reason for Coghlan being first is that when evaluating a rookie the latter half of the season should be weighed more heavily than the first half. When a player breaks into the league normally one of two things happen, either they start off well and then the league learns them and the impressive start fizzles. Or they start out slowly until they figure out the league and then come on blazing. A strong finish, I feel, is more representative of who was the better rookie. Now both of the NL East pitchers were pretty steady throughout but an every day player should get the benefit of the doubt when making the comparison.

2010 Top 50 MLB Free Agents: 11-20

Eli Greenspan, MLB Daily Dish — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:34:45 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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Here is the second installment of the Top 50 MLB Free Agents, rounding out the top 20 today:

11. Adrain Beltre, Mariners

- The Orioles, Brewers, and Twins are among teams that could use a third baseman. Beltre's numbers have been kind of a disappointment over the past couple of years, but is only 30 years old and still could give a team three, maybe even four productive years. After Joe Crede flopped at the hot corner, the Twins could look to bring him in where he can settle in nicely behind Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer.

Prediction: Twins

12. Rich Harden, Cubs

- The Cubs are ready to move on from Rich Harden, and will let teams cautiously line up for the power arm right-hander. The Red Sox have been tied to Harden already, and some think the Mariners could be a possibility as well. One interesting possibility, however, is the Brewers, where he would be reunited with former manager KenMacha and pitching coach Rick Peterson, who he worked with in his rookie year.

Prediction: Brewers

13. Mike Gonzalez, Braves

- Gonzalez put up very strong numbers for the Braves and all signs point to the Braves re-signing the lefty closer.

Prediction: Braves

14. Felipe Lopez, Brewers

- Orlando Hudson and Chone Figgins may be out of their price range, and bringing in a solid infielder like Felipe Lopez would be a huge upgrade at second and at the top of the order, not to mention a nice response to the Brewers signing Harden (in this scenario).

Prediction: Cubs

15. Placido Polanco, Tigers

- Adding a Gold Glove award certainly helps his value, but being a Type-A free agent may lead to teams staying away from him. However, a team like the Diamondbacks, who would not lose their first round pick by signing a Type-A free agent, could be an option.

Prediction: Diamondbacks

16. Andy Pettitte, Yankees

- How long will Pettitte contemplate retirement before re-upping with the Yankees?

Prediction: Yankees

17. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels

- While the Mariners appear to be an intriguing option, the DH spot will likely go to Griffey one last time. Guerrero will certainly be a DH next season, maybe making an occiasional appearane in the outfield. The White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles could look to the veteran power-hitter.

Prediction: Orioles

18. Nick Johnson, Marlins

- Johnson put together a pretty strong season for the Marlins and Nationals, and likely will look to cash in. If the Braves lose Adam LaRoche, he could emerge as a top target.

Prediction: Braves

19. Marlon Byrd, Rangers

- The Rangers might not be able to afford to keep Byrd, who could land with the Cardinals if they fail to sign Matt Holliday.

Prediction: Cardinals

20. Mark DeRosa, Cardinals

- Mark DeRosa is not going back to Chicago. However, the Phillies need a corner infielder and could take a chance on the infielder at a reduced price, considering he is coming off wrist surgery.

Prediction: Phillies

Placido Polanco Regains His Gold Glove

Ian Casselberry, Bless You Boys — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:45:42 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

The Detroit Tigers' Placido Polanco was awarded the American League Gold Glove at second base for 2009. It's the second time in the last three seasons Polanco has won the honor.

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If 2009 was Placido Polanco's last in a Detroit Tigers uniform, he leaves with his head held high and his fielding glove golden.

Polanco was awarded the American League's Gold Glove at second base today, the second time he's won the honor in the last three seasons. He committed only two errors this season, the second-lowest total of his career. (In 2007, he had no errors.)

Polanco also turned a career-high 112 double-plays (finishing behind only the Blue Jays' Aaron Hill - who turned 129 - among second basemen). And he finished with the highest UZR rating at his position.

In addition, Polanco is the third infielder in Tigers history to win multiple Gold Gloves, joining Alan Trammell (who won four) and Lou Whitaker (three) in that exclusive club.

Catcher Gerald Laird, third baseman Brandon Inge, and outfielder Curtis Granderson were thought to also have chances to win a Gold Glove, but apparently didn't get enough votes among major league managers and coaches. The Twins' Joe Mauer was the winner at catcher, the Rays' Evan Longoria at third base, and though Gold Gloves aren't given to individual outfield positions, centerfielders Torii Hunter (Angels) and Adam Jones (Orioles) were each awarded.

Did those Tigers get snubbed? Well, Laird threw out 42% of opposing basestealers this season. (Mauer, by comparison, threw out 26%.) Inge, however, was fourth in UZR among third baseman. (Longoria was first.) Granderson was better in UZR than Hunter or Jones, but far behind the Mariners' Franklin Gutierrez. (Gutierrez didn't get a Gold Glove either, so take that for what it's worth.)

Whether or not Polanco returns to Detroit in 2010 is still to be determined, but if Scott Sizemore ends up taking over at second base, he'll have an enormous glove to fill. How long into next season will it be before it's mentioned that the Tigers are suffering a defensive downgrade at that position? (Hopefully, it's not after Sizemore boots a ball for an error.)

Free Agency, Part Two: Our greatest fears

Grant, McCovey Chronicles — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:17:42 -0000

The flipside. One player you’re absolutely terrified that the Giants will sign. Cull free agent list, and name your guy.

I have three nominations for coveted Annual Gary Matthews, Jr. Do Not Want Award:

The Overpaid, Overcommitted, and Over Here

Jason Bay will get close to $100M, and that just might work for an AL team. Bay’s a remarkably consistent hitter, and he’s been healthy throughout his career. His defense is pretty spotty, but he’s still a net positive as long as he’s hitting. On the Giants, though, he’d be paid like a franchise player. With Zito and Rowand making a combined $100,000,000,000,000 over the next three years, adding Bay would pretty much be the last free agent foray for a while.

As soon as Bay is on the Giants, he’ll remember that he’s over 30 and fall off a cliff offensively. And the Giants will have three years of the most hilarious outfield coverage in baseball, especially if right field is filled by a rangeless goober as well. This is my dream; this is my nightmare.

Pure, uncut, ignorance

"Man, this team needs an RBI man. Saaaay, Jermaine Dye is available. He gets RBIs. This offseason stuff sure is easy. Saaaaay, Newhart reruns are on! Good thing my work is done here."

I’m not wild about using UZR to predict future performance – that’s not really what it was designed for – but Dye’s UZR hints that he’s played the outfield like a thumbless Glenallen Hill for the last three years, and that age is only going to make things worse. You don’t put a clomper like that in the outfield unless his offense is stellar enough to force your hand. A .340 OBP in a hitter’s park is not stellar, and it’s not a given that he’ll produce even that going forward.

I’m not unreasonable. Now that Sabean is back, all I want him to do is honestly evaluate why his offenses have been at the bottom of the league for the past six years. A Dye signing – "35 years young, plenty of homers and RBI, what’s not to like?" – would be an obvious indication that Sabean thinks that he’s just been unlucky with his roster-building philosophies. It wasn’t his fault, for example, that Rowand stopped hitting 30 home runs when he came to San Francisco. Gag.

Bengie Molina

This category is populated by Bengie Molina. A man who gets paid to evaluate baseball players is right now worried about how the offense is going to make up for Molina’s offensive production. He’s thinking, man, it makes sense to give Posey a shot, but who’s going to drive in the runs? Is it worth it, he wonders, to commit to a second or third year to Molina if it guarantees that all of those runs are driven in next year? That would block Posey, but then the runs would be driven in. And runs need to be driven in, or the offense will be even worse! What a dilemma.

Again, we follow an organization that is convinced that Molina helps an offense, whereas the rest of the civilized world realizes that a sub-.300 on-base percentage coming from the slowest player in baseball is something to avoid. Bringing back Molina is finding your wife in bed with one of her students after you’ve already read the e-mails between the two. I mean, you knew, but seeing it in action just hammers the ungodliness home.

I think Molina scares me more than any of the other free agents. At least we can pretend with Dye and Bay – poor defense is much harder to quantify on a day-to-day basis, especially when they’re improving on the offense from last season. But Molina grounding into double plays, stopping at third on a long double, and weakly flying out to the outfield for another two seasons? Assuming Bochy will know how to transition from a veteran catcher to a rookie catcher? I’ll set a series of small fires if that happens, and I can’t promise that they’ll be on inanimate objects.

2009 AL Gold Glove Winners

Tom Dakers, Bluebird Banter — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:22:47 -0000

This year's AL Gold Gloves winners were named today. No Jays won.

C: Joe Mauer, Twins

1B: Mark Teixeira, Yankees

2B: Placido Polanco, Tigers

3B: Evan Longoria, Rays

SS: Derek Jeter, Yankees

OF: Torii Hunter, Angels

OF: Adam Jones, Orioles

OF: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners

P: Mark Buehrle, White Sox

I know, should get all up in arms that Aaron Hill didn't win or that Derek Jeter (you gotta be kidding) did, but I quit caring about who the Gold Glove winners were when Rafael Palmeiro won in 1999 even though he only played 28 games at first that year. I figure once you do that, you've admitted the award is just a joke.

Anyway, what do you think about the choices?

Daily Roundup

Eli Greenspan, MLB Daily Dish — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:29:01 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

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The Arizona Republic is reporting that the Diamondbacks have some interest in bringing back pitcher Livan Hernandez. Hernandez really struggled in 31 starts between the Nationals and Mets, but pitched for the Diamondbacks between 2006-2007. He's an innings eater, making him a candidate for the back-end of the rotation.
The Tacoma News Tribune is reporting that the Mariners have extended offers to free agents Jack Wilson and Russell Branyan. They are reportedly discussing a multi-year deal with Wilson that would pay him less than the 8.4 million dollar club option they hold on him. Negotiations are still ongoing for both players.
Despite being listed as a Type-A free agent, Billy Wagner's agent told reporters that his client is in demand so far this offseason. That could easily change if the Red Sox decide to offer him arbitration, but if they don't we could see the Braves, Astros, Cubs, or Tigers make a move on him.
Kevin Davidoff of Newsday is reporting that the Mets are discussing the possibility of acquiring Rays outfielder Pat Burrell. Burrell, who will make 9 million dollars in 2010, has also been linked to the Cubs in Milton Bradley-talks.
The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Cubs want to move Milton Bradley in the next 36-hours. Here's one three-way possibility: What if the Cubs sent Milton Bradley to the Rays for Pat Burrell, but then sent Burrell to the Mets for Luis Castillo. Bradley has 2 years and 21 million dollars left on his contract, Castillo has 2 years and 12 million, and Burrell has one year worth 9 million dollars. Bradley will make 9 million in 2010, so if the Rays assume his 2010 salary, with the Mets picking up Burrell's, the Cubs can take Castillo's 6 million dollars, saving 3 million dollars that could ultimately be put towards Bradley's 12 million dollar 2011 salary.

Week 9 NFL Pool Results

Tom Dakers, Bluebird Banter — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

Well, once again, we show why we run a baseball blog. Apparently I know nothing about football. Actually, none of us except for Craig in Calgary seem to know anything about football. Craig won again, getting 9 of 13 right. None of the rest of us got 50%. In fact Jlahey and I tied for second with 6 right. Bringing up the rear, this week, were our husband and wife pair. Carm got 4 of 13 just beating out her husband, No Bunting who got 3 right.

So congratulations again Craig.

Gold Gloves vs. UZR: The Laziest Article I've Ever Written (AL Edition)

SFiercex4, Beyond the Box Score — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:20:29 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

During a pitching change in the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres in a baseball game Tuesday, June 23, 2009, center fielder Franklin Gutierrez (center) ponders aloud "You think I'll get a Gold Glove this year?" Left fielder Wladimir Balentien assures him while right fielder Ichiro Suzuki (kneeling right) snickers. "Gold Gloves?" he thinks as he stares off into the diamond. "I have a million of those." (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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So, today we got to see the American League Gold Glove awards as voted on by coaches and managers. The following is the list of players who won for the American League

Player	Team	Position
Mark Buehrle	CHA	P
Joe Mauer	MIN	C
Mark Teixeira	NYA	1B
Placido Polanco	DET	2B
Evan Longoria	TBR	3B
Derek Jeter	NYA	SS
Adam Jones	BAL	OF
Torii Hunter	LAA	OF
Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	OF

If you are reading this site, I do not think you need to be told that the Gold Glove awards reward players for their name, good looks, reputation, lack of errors, and degree of difficulty, whether real or fabricated by a player's skill. What it does not generally reward is actual defense, though that occasionally gets thrown into the mix as well.

In what will undoubtedly appear as a lazy article (after all, it's so easy to pick on these things, why even bother?), I am going to pit the Gold Glove awards with UZR to see how much agreement there may be. Of course, so as to not raise the ire of one MGL, I will not be quoting single-season UZR totals. Rather, I'll do something simple: a 3-year pseudo-Marcels projection of defensive worth based on both UZR and the Fans Scouting Report. I'll take the single-season UZR leader (yes, I know, but this allows me to not have to do too many projections) and the 2009 GG winner and run a weighted Marcels, weighting UZR at 75% and the Fans at 25%. I'll then regress each total by 75 games of average defense for infielders and 100 games of average for outfielders.

For outfielders, I'll look at the players with the best UZR + positional adjustments, so as to account for the fact that you can pick any three outfielders. For catchers, I'll use the defensive estimates done by devil_fingers in this post, and TotalZone data available at B-Ref courtesy of Sean Smith. Catcher defense is regressed 125 games; I do not have a basis for this, but I figured it should be regressed the most because we know the least about it. I won't be looking at the pitchers, though it is worth mentioning that Buerhle also won the Fielding Bible Award for pitchers this season, so that probably goes down as an agreement. Finally, because the 2009 FSR is still in the voting format, 2009 data will only include UZR. Sorry.

Let's find out how the voters did against the numbers (why do we always have to fight?).

First off, here are the players the Gold Glove voters selected.

Player	Position	Defense
Joe Mauer	C	+7
Mark Teixiera	1B	+2
Placido Polanco	2B	+9
Evan Longoria	3B	+15
Derek Jeter	SS	+0
Adam Jones	OF	+2
Torii Hunter	OF	-2
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	+9

As you can see, the list is not all that bad. Among the players listed here, the Fans Scouting Report agreed a whole lot more than UZR did with the GG voters. Teixeira has come out as around the second best first baseman in baseball over the last few years, behind only Albert Pujols, but UZR has had him with two seasons of below average play and one very strong 2008 campaign; overall, he ended up at around +2 runs. Torii Hunter ends up as the only player in the negative side; here the Fans and UZR disagree heavily, with UZR rating Hunter as solidly below average while the Fans have still have him as one of the best center fielders in the game.

I was rather surprised to see Derek Jeter rate as an even shortstop under this methodology. The Fans have him as slightly above average (+2 and +1 runs in 2007 and 2008 respectively), while UZR has him over the three-year span as a -4 run defender per 150 games. it is worth noting that in the 2009 FSR, Jeter ranks in the middle of the pack as well at shortstop, around the likes of Juan Castro, Tyler Greene, and Miguel Tejada.

Ichiro was an interesting case as well. Each of the three years, UZR rated him well, even with his move to center field in 2007. The Fans, however, were off the charts in favor of Ichiro, labeling him likely the best defender in baseball. The Fans had Ichiro at +27 and +22 runs in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Taking the conglomerate, Ichiro ended up at +9 runs, still the second best total listed here.

There were still places where UZR, the Fans, and even the GG voters agreed. Everyone came to terms on how ridiculous Evan Longoria is at third base, and no one should be surprised there. Similarly, Placido Polanco received reviews from the Fans that were very similar to his UZR numbers, at least in 2008. And Adam Jones received high marks in '08, in concordance with his solid UZR. Jones however was hurt in that his second season in 2009 weighed in more than half of his rating and he happened to receive poor marks from UZR; the Fans still rank him very highly among center fielders, and his numbers would have looked better had I used this season's FSR data.

The Numbers Tally

In comparison, let's take a look at the leaders in terms of UZR or catcher defense this season. Note that in the case of third base, Longoria was the UZR leader and the award recipient, so I went to the second-ranked player for the comparison. Also, in the case of second base, the leader was Ben Zobrist, but I felt with such little data at our disposal in terms of his second base play, his skewed 2009 UZR would have a significant hold on his projection, so I went with the next available player, Dustin Pedroia. Finally, I added four outfielders, three of them center fielders, for comparison. Only one corner outfielder, Carl Crawford, would have approached the amount needed when combining both UZR and positional adjustment.

Player	Team	Position	Defense
Gerald Laird	DET	C	+7
Kevin Youkilis	BOS	1B	+3
Dustin Pedroia	BOS	2B	+8
Chone Figgins	LAA	3B	+9
Cesar Izturis	BAL	SS	+7
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	OF	+21
B.J. Upton	TBR	OF	+8
Rajai Davis	OAK	OF	+7
Carl Crawford	TBR	OF	+10

As mentioned, the GG voters nabbed two of the UZR leaders (at third base and at second base, if you don't count Zobrist). It would appear as if they did a very good job in that department, as this methodology shows Longoria as absolutely dominant defensively and Polanco a very defensible choice given the difference between him and Pedroia. Mauer and "One Man, Five Tools" Laird came out fairly even in the projection, so there should be no quibble in handing the award to the future AL MVP. Likewise, the Youkilis vs. Teixeira debate came fairly even, so deeming Teixeira the winner is certainly a decent choice.

The shortstop position was a very interesting find. I was quite surprised to see that Cesar Izturis came out on top this season, though he carries a very good reputation. I was also quite happy to see strong agreement between the Fans and UZR on Izturis' year-to-year performances. Overall, he would have been a solid choice. I recognize also that I left Elvis Andrus out of the picture for similar reasons to the Zobrist argument. He did end ever-so-slightly behind Izturis on the leaderboard, so I do have that to back me up. With the type of regression Andrus probably would have received for not having played a whole lot, I imagine Izturis would still have come out on top.

It is perhaps in the outfield where the voters missed the mark. Two of the three winners of the Fielding Bible awards, center fielder Franklin Gutierrez and left fielder Carl Crawford, came up missing in the final awards, while a player that, according to this projection, actually hurt the team's defense when compared to the average was awarded (another) Gold Glove. The decision to take Hunter in this case seems very poor when in comparison to the options available. Gutierrez's exclusion was expected but still heinous in light of how good he was this year and how good he has been the past three seasons.

Any of the above choices, between Crawford, Upton, Davis, and Gutierrez, would have been much better than Hunter in this case. Replacing either Jones or Ichiro would be more questionable, and admittedly I did not factor in positional adjustments into these, so Ichiro's numbers as a center fielder and right fielder are counting the same, as are Gutierrez's.

Conclusion

The voters actually did a decent job overall, minus the one giant oversight of Gutierrez and the awarding of yet another Gold Glove that Derek Jeter likely did not earn. Compared to recent results over the last few years though, this year's ballot was a nice change of pace, even though it included a lot of the "old guard" in terms of defense. I hope that in a few years, we can expect to see less of Jeter and Hunter and more of Gutierrez, Andrus, and Crawford on these ballots, reflecting a changing of the guard in defense, a changing of the system and how it is run, or maybe even a more open view on defensive metrics, at least in the context of rewarding good defense.

Expect the National League version tomorrow, or later still, depending on how infuriating it looks. I'm a pessimist.