Saber Analysis

Moneyball for Baseball May Have Potential for Basketball as Well

2013-01-24T08:00:00.000-06:00

Here is a guest post by Angie Picardo

Many people today have heard of the concept of sabermetrics due to Moneyball, a Hollywood film and a book about how it was applied to professional baseball to help teams select better players. More specifically, the manager of the Oakland As in 2002 began using sabermetrics to statistically analyze aspects of various players, either to draft them into professional baseball or trade for existing pro players. Everyone knows the best and better players typically cost the most, but professional teams have limited budgets so they struggle to get them.

The powerhouse teams that historically have performed the best - meaning they have the most world and playoff championships – and often have the largest budgets available to pay the highest-rated players. The Oakland As were not one of those powerhouses, so Billy Beane sought a new method of evaluating players to help him find the ones that could help his team but were also affordable. Moneyball helped define new aspects of a player's value and then assigned numbers to those values in order to make more complex and hopefully more accurate predictions about their potential contributions on the field. Since Billy Beane's success in turning the As around from an average team into a playoff division winner, Moneyball no longer could be considered a secret weapon in the ongoing race to find and draft the top players for the least amount of money.

Now, however, there is another kind of statistical analysis available that might also prove beneficial to baseball, except this time it comes from professional basketball. Muthuball was named after its creator, Muthu Alagappan, a student at Stanford University. Alagappan himself was not good at basketball, but he was intrigued with how aspects of reality could be classified, such as diseases and basketball player functions in games, rather than their traditional roles. Of course, he was also interested in quantitative analysis.

He found that based on player statistics he could define at least 13 different player roles, rather than the five that have been used for many years. For example, Tyson Chandler's traditional position is Center, but Muthuball calls him a paint protector, and Chandler has been selected as the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year. Traditionally, a center is the tallest player who is expected to get rebounds and score in the paint. However, individuals are not simple roles, and individuals can contribute to their teams in more ways than the traditional role definition allowed.

One of Alagappan's points is that his analysis could help teams document the problem of having too many players with the same skill sets, so the complexity in their ability to generate offense and respond to their opponents defensively is compromised. For example, if a team had three big men like Tyson Chandler, they would excel at protecting the paint from easy baskets such as dunks and lay-ups, but they would have little offensive output on high percentage shots, so there would be a disadvantage to having them on the same team. It would be much better to surround Tyson with two players such as a long-distance shooting forward that can defend the wing and a rebounding forward who passes well, but doesn't take many shots while also defending against penetration.

Muthuball is not only an analytical approach; it is also utilizes a software program that can be used to map relationships between players based on their performance statistics. Then they can be compared side-by-side to see which ones are the best buys for teams when they have draft picks or are making trades.

So does Muthuball have any benefit when applied to baseball? It isn't clear yet, because it is a new method so there isn't enough data, but it appears to be promising. The software actually could be used for any a number of analyses within a variety of contexts.

Angie Picardo is a staff writer for NerdWallet, a website dedicated to helping baseball fans find the best credit cards.

AL Wild-Card Round Preview

2012-10-04T15:58:00.000-05:00

At 8:37 pm (EST, approximately) on Friday, the Texas Rangers will host the Baltimore Orioles in one of the most surprising match-ups possible in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. One game-- a Game 163, if you will. One chance to survive and play the Yankees. One winner, but with two vastly different stories from two vastly different teams. How did they get there? Who will win? After the jump, I will examine each team and boldly predict a winner.
If you had told me at the beginning of the season that the Rangers and O's would be playing in the Wild Card round, I would have laughed you out of the room (metaphorically, probably). How could Texas lose a division that they have dominated? How could Baltimore beat out the Rays and Red Sox and Angels and other teams in the AL to get there? But here we are with Texas collapsing down the stretch and Baltimore continuing their improbable run.

Texas Rangers: So, you just blew a huge lead in the AL West, got swept by the upstart A's and are now one loss away from being out of the playoffs. At least you haven't lost back-to-back World Series in heartbreaking fashion...
But seriously, the Rangers are in a tailspin. We can't quantify their emotions and feelings, but I am sure they are coming into Friday feeling pretty horrible. Blowing a sizable division lead is bad enough, but getting swept in the final series by the usurping team? That's crushing. Fortunately for Ranger fans, the stats do not lie; this team has a legitimately outrageous offense. You have Josh Hamilton and his 43 HRs, Adrian Beltre and his 0.386 wOBA and 140 wRC+, and Elvis Andrus with 21 stolen bases. The entire lineup can get on base, run reasonably well, and hit the ball to score runs. All this led to a 4.98 run/game stat that is absurd, especially considering how dominant pitching was across the league. For context, league average was 4.32 runs/game. Their 808 runs scored led the league, the Yankees were second with 804 runs, and no other team came reasonably close to 800. Simply put, the Rangers are dangerous on offense.
Yu Darvish has been tabbed to start for the Rangers. Aside from one Mike "The Effing Boss" Trout, Yu has had arguably the best rookie season in the AL. Ron Washington is betting the back of the rotation can hold up against the Yankees as he throws his #2 starter. But he has reason for confidence. Yu has a 3.29 FIP and a 10.4 K/9. Sure, his walk rate is a tad high, but he has great strike-out pitches and the Orioles do like to strike-out (21.3% K rate).

Baltimore Orioles: So, you just shocked everyone in the Majors, you win seemingly every close game you play, and you showed the flaws of Pythogrean Win Theorems. Miracles abound!
Even as a die-hard Yankees and Nats fan (which is finally a good combination), I am loving this Orioles run. The O's are reminding everyone that even as we attempt to understand the inter-workings of the sport, baseball is still a mystery. It is exciting and random. They are making the game a joy to watch as no one knows what will happen next. Players who were written off as gone (looking at you, Nate McLouth) are playing great baseball. Even better for Showalter's men: the advanced stats agree with the result-- the Orioles are a good team, even if the 'Pythags' do not agree.
Using the Pythagorean Theorem (using runs scored and runs given up), the Orioles record should be about 81-81. Yep that definitely didn't happen, so it is obvious that they actually have reason to feel confident in close games-- they've done it all year, why not for a couple more games? Be careful with that narrative (on both sides) because Pythagorean formulas cannot tell us what will happen in one game. That being said, experience is definitely a plus for the team that has played so many close games. In other words, while I don't totally agree with the idea that "the game is played on the field, not in spreadsheets", the inability to quantify 'clutch' leaves me given a slight edge to the team that has proven an ability (or something) to win late and extra inning games.
Sources say Joe Saunders or Steve Johnson will start for the Orioles. In limited time, the pitchers have both done reasonably well. I do not want to read too much into small sample sizes, so I will just say that either of them will have an incredibly tough time against a stacked team.
Baltimore does have hitting. I was surprised to see the O's have the FOURTH highest ISO in the Majors. Camden Yards is definitely not an extreme hitters park, so Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds and company should be taken seriously.

Final Notes/Thoughts/Musings:
We know the Rangers have gone 5-2 against the Orioles this season, with two of the games being decided by a combined 13 runs. That doesn't tell us anything new; the Orioles win close games, the Rangers score runs in bunches. The pitching match-up is certainly intriguing. Johnson's WAR + Saunders WAR = 1.4 WAR. Darvish has a WAR of 5.1. Note: Steve Johnson has also only started four games and Saunders in seven, so take that difference with several grains of salt. It appears the Rangers have the better starter. However, the Orioles bullpen has been shockingly solid, so the O's have the advantage in late game situations.
One game does not a sample size make. At a certain point, all the stats and analysis in the world come to nothing. The game will happen, the players will play, and the results will be final. Strange things could/will happen.

Prediction: It is always hard to go against the home team, especially one with such solid hitting. Darvish is a dominant pitcher, Saunders and Johnson have a lot to prove, and the Rangers offense is just deadly. Unless the Orioles hitting can keep pace, this should be a win for Texas. Then again, I have doubted the Orioles all season, and seeing as the teams have identical records, nothing should be taken for granted. All the same....
Rangers: 6 Orioles: 2

Craig Kimbrel's On His Way To The Record Books

2012-09-29T13:53:00.003-05:00

Unless you've been living under a rock this past season you know that Atlanta Braves reliever, Craig Kimbrel, is having a fantastic year. He's striking out batters at an astronomical rate, and has been literally unhittable. Many sabermetric fans and traditionalists seem to agree that this is the best season by a reliever, but I want to see just how good he's been. After the jump we'll take a look.

I went into the FanGraphs leaderboards of pleasure and wanted to see if anyone struck out as many batters as Kimbrel has while also limiting walks. What I saw blew me away.

Season	Name	Team	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
2012	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	50.20%	6.30%	0.45	0.25	92.40%	1.04	0.82
2003	Eric Gagne	Dodgers	44.80%	6.50%	0.22	0.243	83.90%	1.2	0.86
2012	Aroldis Chapman	Reds	44.40%	7.80%	0.52	0.25	86.10%	1.55	1.52
2011	Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	44.00%	11.90%	0.5	0.297	76.20%	2.85	1.74
1999	Billy Wagner	Astros	43.40%	8.00%	0.6	0.226	86.50%	1.57	1.65
2004	Brad Lidge	Astros	42.60%	8.10%	0.76	0.292	88.00%	1.9	1.97
2010	Carlos Marmol	Cubs	41.60%	15.70%	0.12	0.293	78.10%	2.55	2.01
2011	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	41.50%	10.50%	0.35	0.315	80.70%	2.1	1.52
1999	Armando Benitez	Mets	41.00%	13.10%	0.46	0.259	84.90%	1.85	2.1
1998	Billy Wagner	Astros	39.30%	10.10%	0.9	0.336	83.10%	2.7	2.46
2010	Billy Wagner	Braves	38.80%	8.20%	0.65	0.246	87.50%	1.43	2.1
1992	Rob Dibble	Reds	38.50%	10.80%	0.38	0.321	71.60%	3.07	1.62
2012	Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	38.40%	8.90%	0.89	0.216	81.60%	2.36	2.58
1997	Billy Wagner	Astros	38.30%	10.80%	0.68	0.331	78.70%	2.85	2.39
2009	Jonathan Broxton	Dodgers	38.00%	9.70%	0.47	0.263	73.10%	2.61	1.97

In this table are the relief pitchers with the highest strikeout percentages since 1920. The first thing that stuck out was that Kimbrel is really darn good. He's striking out batters at an unheard of 50% of the time! Not only is he doing an excellent job at striking guys out, but he's also doing an incredible job at limiting walks. As you can see Gagne and Kimbrel are the only ones to post above average BB%, while having astronomical strikeout numbers. The crazy thing is that Gagne struck out over 44% of batters in 2003, but Kimbrel is striking out 6% more while walking the same amount. Kimbrel has also been doing a phenomenal job at leaving men on base. While you may think a 92% LOB% would be in the top 5 for all-time, it actually would put Kimbrel at 13th all-time. The best LOB% by a reliever was 97.%, and that was done by Calvin Schiraldi in 1986. For those wondering I set the IP limit at 50 innings.

I'm sure you know that Kimbrel has a ridiculous fastball, and he also has a filthy curveball. When he faces both left-handers and right-handers he throws his fastball and curveball generally the same amount of time. Interestingly when he's ahead of left-handers he uses his curveball and fastball 50% of the time. It's clear though that his dominant fastball and curveball are leading him to the record books.

While looking at this chart I notice some other interesting facts. In 2012 there three relievers who could finish with some of the best strikeout rates since 1920. They are Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman. If Kimbrel wasn't so dominant this year than we might be talking about Chapman instead. Craig Kimbrel is on the list for the second time, last year he struck out batters 44% of the time, but also struggled with walks. In fact besides Gagne and Kimbrel everyone on this list struggled with walks. I found that pretty interesting myself. I also remembered how dominant Billy Wagner was. He made the list four times, with the pinnacle being in 1999.

While it's extremely unlikely Kimbrel repeats this season it is highly possible that he winds up as one of the best relievers of his generation, or if he's lucky he could be one of the best relievers of all-time.

Data taken from FanGraphs.com and BrooksBaseball.net and is current as of September 28, 2012.

Ike Davis' Strange Season

2012-09-25T15:05:00.002-05:00

Going into spring training, Ike Davis was hoping to show that he was healthy, and show that his 2010 rookie season was not a fluke. Unfortunately at the beginning of spring training Davis contracted Valley Fever, and ever since then he has had an extremely strange season. He's showing even more power than he did in 2010, but that's about it. In fact his season is so strange that it's only happened ten times since 1920, and one player has done it twice.<>

Since 2000 only three players have had a BABIP that was less than or equal to .250, a wOBA less than or equal to .330, and an ISO greater than or equal to .230. As you know Ike Davis is one of those player. The other two players were Jose Valentin, and Jeromy Burnitz. Burnitz accomplished the feat in 2003, and Jose Valentin accomplished the feat in 2004. In Valentin's case his .258 ISO that season was the highest of his career.

Right off the bat we can see that a common trend for all three of these guys is the struggle with strikeouts. All three have put up strikeout numbers over 22%, and their walk numbers aren't impressive at all either. Davis is the only one out of the three to walk 10% of the time, and that's right at above league average. They also struggled when it came to extra base hits. None of three players got more than 23 doubles,and none of these players have blinding speed. So if they didn't get many extra base hits, and had poor strikeout to walk ratios what exactly did these ballplayers do right? They hit a lot of home runs, which as a gave them impressive ISO numbers. All three hit 30 home runs or more, so it appears that when they went to bat they were either going for the long ball, or striking out.

Their wOBAs left much to be desired as well. Valentin was the only one with a below average wOBA, but if we want to talk about wOBA by position, then Ike Davis' has been .013 worse than the average 1B. While he has shown power, he has lacked plate discipline and hasn't hit a ton of singles, or extra base hits. The same can be said for Jeromy Burnitz.

Each of their BABIPs is interesting, because all three were either well below their average BABIP, or currently are beneath their average BABIP. In Burnitz's case in 2004 he managed to have a .304 BABIP the following season, which is a pretty big turnaround. For those interested he had a .279 career BABIP. Valentin got hurt the following year, but he also saw a normalization in BABIP, but his power was never the same. Both Burnitz and Valentin also saw their strikeout and walk numbers return close to their career numbers, so it's possible those two seasons were just flukey seasons.

Here are the other ten times that it happened in baseball history, since 1920. Just from looking at the chart we can see that strikeouts are a big problem for nearly everyone. Del Crandall's season appears to be the main exception. Rob Deer's is the only player besides Jose Valentin to have less than a 100 hits during his season, and 27 were home runs, while only 15 were doubles. Dave Kingman made the list twice, thanks to his 1982 and 1986 seasons. All of these players managed to post impressive power numbers, but they got extremely unlucky when it came to their BABIP. Some managed to prove that is was a flukey season and bounced back the next season, but others were not so lucky.

The Mark of Consistency and High Society

2012-09-19T22:06:00.002-05:00

Growing up as a Sox fan I’ve had the pleasure of watching the career of Mark Buehrle first & foremost throughout my life. It was a pure joy and entertainment to say the least, there’s something special about rooting for a guy that continually finds ways to defy the odds of the “experts”. When Buehrle took the mound you knew he would give the Sox a good chance to win a game and as an added bonus more times than not would give the bullpen some rest. Buehrle was more than a typical innings-eater; he was a great pitcher (still is!), much of which gets overshadowed.

Unless you’re a Sox fan or one who closely followed Buehrle it’s quite easy to skim over him and the accomplishments he’s had throughout his career. He’s won 3 gold gloves from 2009 to 2011, and could be well on his way to his 4^th straight. He’s thrown two no hitters, one of which was perfect. He’s won a World Series, won a World Series game, and on top of that saved one too. As well as been a part of 4 All-Star teams. The accomplishments are many especially coming from a soft tossing left hander and these don’t even break the ice of the sabermetrics which is after all what we’re about here.

Since assuming his role as a starter in 2001 till now he ranks 4^th in fWAR with 47.4. Just for reference the guys ahead of him in fWAR are Halladay, CC, Oswalt, and Vazquez; the next 5 below are Johan, Johnson, Hudson, Pettitte, and Schilling. To say the least Buehrle squeezed himself in between some elite talent and yet hardly gets mentioned in the same tier as many of the above. His peripherals don’t scream out of greatness as some of the other may, but one area he dose exceed in is consistency and durability.

Since becoming a full time starter, he’s accumulated 2,613.2 IP in 391 starts, both of which lead all of baseball from 2001 to 2012. He hasn’t pitched below 201 IP in the past 11 seasons (which is nuts in itself, which I’ll elaborate more on later) and will likely keep that streaking rolling this year. Nor has he posted an fWAR below 3.4 with the exception of 2006 (1.9). He’s not only been durable but also been one of the elite pitchers in baseball over this timeframe.

As mentioned earlier his peripherals don’t exactly measure up to greatness, however over a certain period of time peripherals such as FIP and xFIP don’t always tell the whole tale. Some players just have a knack or skill of exceeding them and they should eventually be taken as the norm. Ichiro and BABIP is one case of such and Buehrle along with mediocre career 4.14 FIP and 4.22 xFIP is another. However up until a few weeks ago we were unable to quantify some of these effects had on pitchers, but with FanGraphs new release of FDP (Fielding Dependant Pitching) we can now give more merit to Buehrle’s game.

Name	RA9-Wins	BIP-Wins	LOB-Wins	FDP-Wins	RAR	WAR	FDP-WAR	New Rank
Roy Halladay	76.2	3.2	1.5	4.7	663.3	71.4	73.75	1st
CC Sabathia	61.6	1.5	-0.8	0.7	583	60.9	61.25	2nd
Roy Oswalt	57.5	-2.9	9.4	6.5	477.6	51	54.25	3rd
Javier Vazquez	42.5	2.3	-7	-4.6	450	47.1	44.5	7th
Mark Buehrle	55.5	3.2	5.2	8.4	467.9	47.4	51.6	5th
Johan Santana	58	10.3	0.6	10.9	451.8	47.1	52.55	4th
Randy Johnson	41.2	-0.3	-4.5	-4.7	419.1	46	43.65	8th
Tim Hudson	57.1	9	4.5	13.5	423.1	43.6	50.35	6th
Andy Pettitte	36.6	-7.1	0.5	-6.6	418.7	43.2	39.9	10th
Curt Schilling	40.3	-3.8	3.2	-0.6	380.2	40.9	40.6	9th

Since his move to starter Buehrle ranks 13^th in all of baseball in FDP-Wins with an 8.4. Then by using Dave Cameron’s suggestion of cutting FDP-Win in half and adding them onto WAR we can see Buehrle’s value ranks 5^th in fWAR with a 51.6. FDP also tells us Buehrle is also among few starters that succeed at limiting base runners to begin with and even once they were on, he limiting them from scoring.

Even with all of this, the most remarkable feature Buehrle’s shown in this time is his durability. Every single pitcher before and nearly every pitcher after him on has been injured at one point or another. In fact the only one that I can think that hasn't been hurt is Livan Hernandez and he’s nowhere near Buehrle’s talent level; however feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. Yet it is as if Buehrle is of a different species, he pitches, and then pitches some more! And without hesitation you know what you’re going to get out of Buehrle more so than nearly any other pitcher in all of baseball.

Buehrle has had an incredible career to date while going very much under the radar thus far and despite his age is showing us he can still succeed at a high level. Given his durability and consistency I wouldn’t be surprised to see much of the same from Buerhle for many more years. In which case if he continues to perform at a similar level he’ll soon be around the coveted 60 fWAR mark in which many consider a benchmark minimum for the Hall of Fame. He hasn’t overpowered or flashed his way into the record books, but has shown the value of being durable and consistent. In a game where many pitchers get hurt and a game where there’s been shown many ways to succeed; Buehrle continues to give his case for consistency. I think it’s about time that he and the value of consistency are taken seriously.

Fantasy Friday: Playoff Push

2012-09-06T22:22:00.001-05:00

If you have been keeping up with your team all season, now is probably the time you are reaping the rewards. With only a few weeks to go, many of us are experiencing the "YES! LOCKED UP THE DIVISION TITLE, JERKS!" feeling. If you are one of those select people, continue to read as I discuss players you should be looking at as the playoffs start. If you are stupid, lazy, or a Communist (I am assuming the correlation of Communism and the fall of the Soviet Union applies to fantasy baseball) and your team is out, then go ahead and skip this post and go play some fantasy football. "Community" reference, ftw!
1. Mark Reynolds should be for real. His recent tear against the Yankees is leaving Joe Girardi and company with the option of hitting him every time he comes up so that he can't hit the ball into the upper deck. But set aside his power for a second and consider that his walk rate is up, his notoriously terrible strike out rate is down, and his BABIP is right on career average. His BABIP was awful the past two seasons (0.257 and 0.266) but he has decreased his FB% and GB% and increased his line drive rate. Considering his HR/FB is 2% below his career average, this is possibly a sustainable increase in skill. This could be largely due to him swinging less (Swing% of 42.9% is a career low) and is therefore being more selective about what ball to hit, giving him better contact. All in all, I am not suggesting selling everything you have for him- regression could still occur- but if you have him, don't sell him unless you get a crazy deal.

2. How Angel Pagan is not owned in every single league blows my FREAKING mind. (Translation, beg, borrow and steal for this guy). If at the beginning of the season you asked me to over/under a Pagan wRC+ of 100, I would have laughed. With 562 plate appearances, far from a small sample, he has a wRC+ of 110. No, seriously. Sure, it is not coming from his power (8 HRs, 0.146 ISO) but his 0.284/0.336/0.430 slash line is solid. If he could walk more than his tepid 7.5% rate, his speed could create even more runs. Granted, as he ages his speed will decline- and his higher-than-usual BABIP could spell regression- but he could probably be grabbed in a pretty cheap trade. With the Giants fighting for a playoff spot, his playing time should continue.

3. Alex Rios is having himself quite the underrated year. Owned in (a surprisingly low) 88% of Yahoo! leagues, he might still be available. Considering the Comeback Player of the Year could come down to teammate Adam Dunn or Rios, he is playing better than that percentage shows. After a miserable 0.227/0.265/0.348 last season, he is posting a 0.298/0.329/0.516. His speed is still around (20 steals, 80% steal rate), but his power is at career-best levels (0.218 ISO, 0.361 wOBA). He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than usual, but he is being helped by his 12.6% HR/FB rate (well above a career level of 9.1%). Considering his FB rate is right around last year (39.3% to 39.2%) perhaps some of it is luck. Then again, ESPN Home Run Tracker designated 3 of his 13 HRs in 2011 as 'No Doubts' while this year 5 of his 22 are 'NDs'. The kid can still crush a ball. Example: noted.

This article goes to prove that right now is NOT the time to stop fact checking. You can definitely get good trades done if you find players like these that the 'market' under-appreciates (see last week's column for more). It could be the difference between a Championship or a long winter.

Fantasy Friday: Reachable Stars

2012-08-31T23:51:00.001-05:00

The goal of this week is to discuss several players that are having solid seasons but surprisingly not owned in as many leagues as one would think. This obviously does not mean these players will be available in your specific league, but it does show that a lot of owners are undervaluing these players. Even if they aren't on the waiver wire, consider trading cheap and getting the better end of the deal. The percent owned will be using Yahoo! Leagues stats. After the jump, a collection of solid, yet less-than-reasonably appreciated players.

1. Danny Espinosa, Nationals-- 63%. Yes, he has been on a slide recently, but overall he has remained one of the under-appreciated players in the National League. His contributions at the top of the order has been an integral part of the surprisingly-still-in-first-place Nats. His strikeout rate (27.9%!) is still a huge concern, but if he can stop swinging at bad pitches out of the zone (O-Swing % of 39.5% in 2012) he should get better contact and raise his average. He definitely adds speed (17 SBs in 2012) and has reasonable power for a second baseman (0.154 ISO and 14 HRs). A 20-20 2B is a good value add, especially for a Utility-type role. If you are in the 37% of leagues that have him as a free agent, grab him quick.

2. Chris Young, Diamondbacks-- 48%. His injury problems have kept him out of regular playing time, so that scares off a lot of owners. Usually a dependable player, the injuries appear to be random, non-reoccurring problems. His power has returned of late and is quickly up to 14 HRs. Not bad considering he has only had 337 plate appearances. His health problems has limited his massive upside on the base paths, so do not expect his usual 20-15 season. All the same, he figures to contribute for the rest of the year and could be a cheap pick-up with good potential in a keeper league.

3. Justin Morneau, Twins-- 55%. The Twins season never got off the ground, so I can understand how he has gotten passed on by so many owners. Also, he is Josh Johnson-esque in always getting hurt. That being said, Morneau has been consistent in playing this year and almost has more plate appearances than the last two years combined. He is far from the 34 HR guy he was in 2006, but with a 0.274/0.329/0.466 line in 2012, and a 0.337 wOBA, he is definitely better than league-average. His BABIP is only slightly higher than his career average, so he should continue this trend for the rest of the year. (Disclaimer, BABIP is definitely a hot-button issue re: how much is luck versus skill, so tread on that idea lightly).

4. Mark Buehrle, Marlins-- 58%. I was really surprised how low that percentage was. I know 'Wins' isn't a strong metric, but he has 12 already this year and should get a handful more. His ERA of 3.62 is probably a tad lucky (4.14 FIP and 4.23 xFIP). He continues to not be a strike out pitcher (5.35 K/9) but if in a league where WHIP or BBs count, he is well below league-average. In fact, his BB/9 is only 1.84. Buehrle is far from a monster ace, but he should add value in a deep league.

Keep in mind, you probably only have two or three more weeks. If you are in the playoff hunt, don't take huge risks. Trades sent to you right now are probably not going to be good. Overall, keep doing what you are doing unless you see 'cold' players getting cut and put on the waiver wire. Always keep in mind, 'cold' is generally considered a statistical regression, so don't go crazy if a few players are struggling in small sample sizes. And as usual, continue to dominate!

Updates

2012-08-31T10:58:00.004-05:00

Hey everyone just wanted to give some updates with the site.

As you've probably noticed by now we have a new look! Hope you enjoy it, if not give us some suggestions! We're always looking to improve.

We've also implemented some advertisements, hopefully it isn't too many, but if you think they take away from the site, let us know.

I've also added in Links & References below our History. Here is a nice, easy, and convenient way to visit many of the sites we use for our material.

And finally below that is another blog you might find of interest; JR's MLB Player Analysis, he does similar work as us and a great job at it, check him out!

Thanks again for staying tuned and continue to do so as we have many more posts, updates, and ideas on the way!

Taking a Look at FanGraphs Pitcher WAR

2012-08-30T16:54:00.000-05:00

For those of you that read FanGraphs you will know that they released some new statistics for pitchers. If you aren't aware of them I will give you the three links. New Stats Revealed, Fielding Dependent Pitching, and Pitcher War/FDP. Before Tuesday, FanGraphs only offered pitcher WAR until 1976 (I believe) but now they have it all the way back to when major league baseball started. This isn't really going to be a long post, but more after the jump!

I took the top twenty pitchers of all-time and looked at their fWAR as well as their bWAR. There were a couple of surprises, in my case anyway. I knew Bert Blyleven was good, but I didn't realize that he had the seventh most fWAR. He's definitely one of the more underrated pitchers in the game's history. Nolan Ryan had a huge difference in his fWAR and bWAR and that surprised me as well. Steve Carlton also had a significant difference in his fWAR and bWAR. On the other hand Lefty Grove is the complete opposite. This graph is fun to look at to see how big (or little) the differences are between the two. For further reading head over to FanGraphs or Baseball Reference

Please Rise in The King's Court

2012-08-29T17:16:00.001-05:00

Unless you've been living under a rock these past few weeks, you probably know that Seattle Mariners starting pitcher, Felix Hernandez, has been flat out dominant. The climax of his dominance occurred on August 1 when he pitched a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Since then he has been absolutely lights out. After the jump we'll see just how good he's been, and compare his season to other similar ones.

I will admit that I'm surprised yet not surprised at Felix Hernandez's season. I'm surprised because of the struggles that he endured early on, but on the other hand I'm not surprised at how dominant he's been. Since the seventeenth of June Hernandez has been virtually un-hittable. Let's take a look at his starts to see just how un-hittable he's been.

He's allowed more than two runs only twice. In events where he allowed more than two he was still able to go fairly deep into his games. It's also been an impressive run because he's pitching against teams that are doing really well. It's true that Kansas City, Minnesota, Cleveland and San Diego aren't doing well, and while Boston's pitching isn't very good their offense has been solid. This was before the big trade happened of course.

Five of those games have resulted in nine inning shutouts, those came against the Twins, Rays (Perfect game), Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox. During those games he did an excellent job at commanding his stuff, as well as attacking the strikezone. The Minnesota game was the only time that he struck out less than 20% of the batters that he faced.

I was curious to see other seasons where this occured and I happened to come across Orel Hershiser's 1988 season. In 1988 Hershiser had 9 complete game shutouts while pitching for the Dodgers. During his last five starts he managed to throw 55 innings of shutout ball. Think about that for a minute. 55 innings without giving up a single run, that's unheard of. Hernandez is in special company, there aren't many people to throw five nine inning shutouts in this age. While Hernandez likely won't reach nine shutouts, it's highly possible that he gets at least one more before the season comes to a close.

Hollywood’s New (not so bright) Stars

2012-08-28T13:20:00.002-05:00

Welcome back to the last installment in my four piece series breaking down the Dodgers and Red Sox deal. If you missed out on the other three you can view them here, here, and here.

There’s no doubt the intention of the new Dodgers ownership, win now and win big. As the Yankees have shown us in the past money does make winning easier and since the ownership change, money seems like an endless commodity in LA. In the past month or so the Dodgers have accumulated around $300 million worth of contracts for both now and future. The biggest of bunch coming in their latest blockbuster with the Red Sox, but will this new blockbuster be the next Dark Knight or the next Twlight.

Let’s start with the centerpiece of the deal Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez at any level of his game is an instant upgrade over Loney, so at first this looks like it could be a sexy. But there’s many more strings attached. As mentioned in my previous post, I do have some reluctance in Gonzalez continuing to produce at a high caliber level from here on out. Nonetheless he still plays an exceptional first base and hits well enough to produce a solid 3+ fWAR each season.

However Gonzalez’s salary is not cheap, he’s owed $21 million till 2018, in order for Gonzalez to be worth that money he’s going to produce at a level of at least 4+ fWAR (Assuming 1 fWAR costs $4-5 million) to make the deal even and that doesn’t even take into the effect of inflation (Which may actually benefit the Dodgers). Let’s also not forget Gonzalez is 30 now and by next year will be on the wrong side of 30. While Adrian still may be capable of 4+ fWAR potential, it’s almost a guarantee near the end of the deal he won’t be. So if the Dodgers are going to break even here they’re going to need him to produce a lot of that value upfront. But unless he’s able to get back to his old ways as he was with the Padres this looks like it could end up being more gloom than glory.

Josh Beckett is the next big piece in here, for the Dodgers he’s more of a throw-in in order to get Gonzalez. He’s easily one of the most enigmatic pitchers on a year to year basis, he’s either really dominant or flat out bad and for whatever reason in even years he doesn’t seem to have it, but in odd years looks like he could win a Cy Young. I really don’t have an explanation for this however let’s take a look at what his value is to the Dodgers.

Beckett is owed $34 million till 2014, $17 million each year. As mentioned above Beckett is a very difficult pitcher to predict but in order to live up to his contract he’s going to at least have to be worth 3-4 fWAR each year over the next two years. Beckett has shown us he’s capable of producing at a high level and a switch to the NL as well as to a pitchers park should help him out. Yet between age, health, and a decline in velocity, this may not be the easiest of tasks for him. Despite that though if Beckett can stay healthy and produce 2-3 fWAR each of the next two seasons I think the Dodgers will be happy and can afford him because of the pitching depth they posses.

Carl Crawford the speed demon, 7th wonder of the world, definition of toolbox, and on the latest addition to contracts that didn’t work out well for the Red Sox. In his 8 year tenure with the Rays he produced 36.8 fWAR, since joining the Red Sox .6 fWAR, yeah you read that right .6 easily one of the worst producing contracts in the game right now. Injuries and slumps have really made a human out of Crawford only 161 games played since joining the Red Sox, he’s had it all, groin, wrist, Tommy John, you name it he’s probably had it in the last 2 years. So what does this mean for the Dodgers?

Well for starters living up to that 7 year $142 million deal isn’t happening; so off the bat this deal is probably going to end up a bust right? How big is the question? Will Crawford ever return to form? We can certainly hope so!

Crawford finally got somewhat healthy enough to play this year and in his small sample size his bat was actually Crawford-esque producing a triple slash of .282/.306/.479 while being perfect in 5 steal attempts. Obviously we’d like the OBP to be higher but given the small sample size I can let it slide. However also in a short stint his defense hasn’t lived up to expectations, accumulating a Fld score of -3.9 while producing 115.1 Fld in his previous 8 years. Defense is a huge part of Crawford’s game and without it he’ll have to hit like a madman to produce close to his money value. Whether it be due to injuries or playing the Green Monster in Boston, his defense took a considerable hit, but for now I’m also going to let it slide as well because of these two reasons.

Since his move to the Red Sox Crawford hasn’t been quite right and I still think the verdict is still out on whether he can produce at an elite level and I believe he's a wild card in this deal. This year he showed us despite not being 100% he’s still able to hit and while it’s a small sample size, there’s probably some truth in it. Crawford’s overall contract probably will end up producing negative value as the first two years have essentially been lost and producing near the level he’s owed near the end of the deal won’t help. But if Crawford can stay healthy and his defense didn’t just vanish overnight he can probably still be a solid 3+ fWAR guy and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to string a few seasons better than that together.

And finally there’s Nick Punto, there’s not much to say here except that he’s cheap, and any value they get out of him will likely be a plus.

Overall this is an obvious win now move for the Dodgers and considering the $12 million they’re receiving this year, they’re practically getting all the players received for free this year. So at the very least I really like this move for 2012 and assuming health returns to the players mentioned above I do like the next couple years of the move. I also like the fact the Dodgers didn’t have to move Zach Lee as well as Garret Gould and Chris Reed, 3 of the 4 top arms in their system coming into 2012 (Allen Webster being the other who was traded). The move does come with its risks, but has potential for payoff as well. The latter half of these contracts could end up biting the Dodgers rear end. Be that as it may as long the Dodgers stay committed to winning and the money steam stays steady, they should be able to survive reaping some rewards in the process.

All stats and information are from FanGraphs and Cot's Contracts.

Thanks for your time and I hope you enjoyed this series!

Adrian Gonzalez Past, Present, and Future

2012-08-27T17:01:00.002-05:00

Welcome to part three of this four part series breaking down the Dodgers and Red Sox trade. If you missed part 1 check it out here and part two here.

Now onto the Dodger perspective of the deal while this is a blockbuster type deal, the names may be bigger than the assets at this point in each of their careers. The centerpiece of his deal is Adrian Gonzalez, who’s considered by many to be an elite first baseman. The numbers don’t lie either, he’s a 4 time All Star, 3 time Gold Glove winner, an owner of an .881 career OPS, and has accumulated 30.3 fWAR up to age 30 so far. However since his move to Boston one could say he’s underachieved a bit and not been the player we envisioned we thought he’d be.

Coming to Boston many expect Gonzalez would be a sure fire bet for 100+ extra base hits because his swing was “tailored” to the park, well as it turns out maybe not so much. Gonzalez had a terrific season last year accumulating 6.6 fWAR and finished 7^th in MVP voting. However only accumulated 27 HRs, which is by no means bad, but for the expectations coming in, it was a disappointment. What happened?

Some may cite his shoulder surgery in the offseason of the trade had something to do with the power outage, which it very well could have, shoulders and wrists are pivotal to any hitter especially ones of power. Some might also point out he had an outrageously high BABIP of .380 and he was bound to come back to Earth. His BABIP has stabilized this year; however the power is still down. Yet looking at Gonzalez spray chart of 2011 we’ll see something very peculiar compared to the Gonzalez we’ve seen in the past.

As seen by the huge cluster of infield black boxes and green boxes on the right side of the field we see Gonzalez starts to pull the ball more so then he’s ever done before. Perhaps that short porch in right field was too tempting to lay off of or maybe the shoulder injury didn’t let him get around the ball enough to muster it the other way as in past history. In any case the results are clear compared to his prime year tenure with the Padres.

Gonzalez’s hits are spread out and he seems to have three different types of swings “tailored” to where he wants to hit the ball. Outside of the homeruns, his hits are basically in 3 clusters, left, center, and right, plain and simple. Whether it be his approach, regression, or injury, something changed in Gonzalez and not for the better as it would seem there are lingering effects starting to be felt in 2012.

His hits this year seem shallower than they have been in the past and while there is no distinct cluster it seems lackluster to me. Despite no cluster of outfield hits, the infield outs to the right side give some evidence that he’s still trying to pull the ball but having less success doing do. What's up with this? Well I might have an idea, according to PITCH f/x Pitch Values/100

Gonzalez 2006-2011

wFA/C	wFT/C	wFC/C	wFS/C	wSL/C	wCU/C	wKC/C	wCH/C
1.49	2.29	-1.17	2.89	-0.07	0.61	2.02	1.93

Gonzalez 2012

wFA/C	wFT/C	wFC/C	wFS/C	wSL/C	wCU/C	wKC/C	wCH/C
-0.64	4.57	1.77	-6.6	1.46	1.19	4.08	-1.34

(Excuse the format, I'm unalble to figure out how to insert excell graphs properly, hope it doesn't become confusing.)

For the first time in Gonzalez’s career he’s struggling vs the fastball and probably as a byproduct of this he’s also struggling vs changeups. This is concerning considering the combine times Gonzalez is thrown either or about 50% of the time according to FanGraphs Pitch Type. Tie this into him cutting his walk rate nearly in half, a career low, and it seems to add up to he might be pressing at the plate as well.

Let’s also have a combine look at his spray chart from 2011-2012 raises another red flag.

The chart above is actually a prototypical power hitter’s spray chart, power to the pull side and lack of power and many more deep outs away. However the concerning thing here is Gonzalez wasn’t prototypical he had power to all fields as the chart from 2009-2010 showed. Whatever happened or whatever Gonzalez is doing differently since the trade it’s evident that power and ability to go the other way has been hurt in the process as shown by the blue circle. As evident by the orange circle he does still seem to be able to pull the ball with authority, but to the extent he is, might be hurting him more than helping him.

Finally some may say “Well Gonzalez has hit 10 homeruns in the past two months and his power is returning!” Well that might be possible, but it smells more like a hot streak to me. Last year Gonzalez from May to June hit 15 homeruns, the rest of the year only 11. So while it’s certainty possible he’s rediscovering his power of old, I’d heed with caution.

If I’m the Dodgers all these facts combine are concerning to me and the outlook of Gonzalez may not be as fortunate as some might think. Gonzalez can still probably be an above average first baseman, but unless Gonzalez starts spraying the ball to all fields and stops pulling the ball at the rate he is, the days of him being an elite power hitter are probably behind him.

All stats and information are from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and TexasLeaguers.

Stay tuned in for the final piece of this series, an analysis of the trade from the Dodgers perspective!

The Red Sox New Yutes

2012-08-26T12:17:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone this is part 2 of a 4 part series breaking down the Dodgers and Red Sox deal, for part 1 of this series check out this link.

My favorite of the bunch is Rubby De La Rosa, the kid’s arm is electric to say the least. He’s been rattled by the injury bug and has Tommy John last year, but his ceiling is well worth the risk. He’s only 23 and had an average fastball of 96 MPH last year and in his brief return this year averaged 94.3 MPH. Before he got hurt last year he held the opposition to a 3.87 FIP and 3.55 xFIP as well as nearly struck out a better per innings, 8.9 K/9, pretty impressive considering his age. Control will make or break Rubby, despite the gaudy strikeouts his walk rate of 4.6 BB/9 last year and career 4.0 BB/9 in minors is too high to succeed at a high level. Despite this though, his stuff is good enough to succeed and a worthwhile gamble for the Red Sox. If he continues to develop and finds consistency in his slider, curveball, and changeup he has the ceiling of an ace and the floor of a closer.

Allen Webster is the other high profile 22 year old youngster. Coming into 2012 he was ranked the 95th prospect by Baseball America and with good reason. In the minors he owns a 3.44 ERA and a 2.26 strikeout to walk ratio. Despite a minor hiccup last year when he was promoted to AA, he’s succeeded at every level thus far. His vice is also control and consistency but his should be easier to work out than Rubby's. His ceiling may not be as high as De La Rosa’s but he is the safer option of the two, ceiling of a solid #2, floor of a backend rotation starter.

Jerry Sands is another favorite of mine; I’ve been craving for the guy to be called up for the past 2 years! He’s only 24 and crushed the ball throughout his minor league career, he owns a career .965 OPS, .275 ISO, and has not had a wOBA below .370 in the minors, in other words a destroyer of minor league ballparks. However in his short stint with the Dodgers the past 2 years the results have been underwhelming many giving him the quad A label, despite this he’s put up a .701 OPS and really hurt lefties with a .906 OPS, granted these are small samples but I think they can at least give us a floor of his potential. He hasn’t had a consistent role or playing time and for a young player trying to find his groove, I think that’s vital. If the Red Sox are finally able to give him a consistent role, I think he can succeed. The power and potential are there to be a ceiling of a solid middle of the order bat, the floor a platoon guy off the bench.

Finally the last piece the Red Sox receive is Ivan DeJesus; 25 this year and has put up solid numbers in the minors. Speed use to be one of his pluses but due to a broken leg in 09, it’s no longer much of a plus tool for him, however he still runs well, but his days of stealing bases are probably behind him. The year before the injury in 2008 he was coming off his best year in which he put up an .843 OPS, 7 HR with a .324 average, and 16 SB. Since then the results have been decent, but nothing special. He’s played mainly second base and shortstop but as of this year has been moving around a lot, 9 of his 60 games played this year have been non 2B and SS. He makes solid contact, runs well, and plays solid defense. He still may have potential as a solid shortstop, but his floor is more likely a backup utility.

And well then there's James Loney. He's most likely a fill in for the year as his contract is up at the end of the year. You know what you're going to get from him, which isn't much but as an interim on the spot he'll do, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox bring him back and if they do to have him starting at first next year would be a bigger surprise.

All stats are from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Check back in tomorrow for part 3, a break down of the center piece of the deal, Adrian Gonzalez!

I'll leave you guys with this, skip to 11:40 for the reference, but I do recommenced watching the whole thing, it's a great movie!

The Dodgers Spending Spree Continues

2012-08-25T19:44:00.000-05:00

In what seemed like an unthinkable long shot 24 hours ago the Red Sox and Dodgers are now on the verge of completing a 9 player blockbuster deal. The deal is to send Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and $12 million from the Red Sox in exchange to the Dodgers for James Loney, Rubby De La Rosa, Jerry Sands, Allen Webster, and Ivan DeJesus. The deal is so big there’s no good place to even begin breaking it down, but let’s start with just the cash.

The combine total of cash coming onto the Dodgers payroll is around a whopping $270 million and the Red Sox are only picking up $12 million, only 4.4% of the total value! The $12 million the Red Sox are including is about the same amount of money their ex-players-to-be for the 2012 season are owed take or give a couple bucks here or there. From the Dodger standpoint they’ve just about doubled their salary cap from 2012 to 2013. Coming into the 2012 season they were on the books for $105 million with the additions of Ramirez, Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett, and Punto their now looking at the looks of around $181 million just with the additions above. However with contract increases from a majority of their current players on the roster as well as arbitration cases, and maybe even free agency (why stop now?!) the Dodgers are easily looking at a salary cap around $200 million if not more.

It may be tough to imagine, but the Dodgers could have a higher payroll than the Yankees next year. The Yankees came into 2012 with a payroll of $210 million but they’re going to be taking a large chunk of contracts off the books as well due to the contracts of Rivera, Swisher, Kuroda, Martin, and friends are coming off the books. They currently have around $135 million locked up into next year, with arbitration cases, some resignings here and free agency signs there, and maybe even a trade or two, they’ll likely be somewhere around $180-200 million. So don’t be surprised come April next year and the Yankees are the #2 salary in all of baseball.

Now from the Red Sox standpoint this is not only a massive salary dump but they’re also getting a good chunk of young and controlled cost talent. Coming into the season the Red Sox had $175 million on the books, but now with some of the big names off the books essentially cut their cap in half and are looking at around $81 million committed to 2013, with an offseason’s deal of work I’d imagine they’ll probably end up somewhere between $100-130 million depending on how creative they get. From a financial standpoint the dump in salary alone makes this deal worth it due to the product being less than lacking on the field.

All stats and values are from Cot's Contracts, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.

Tune in tomorrow for a breakdown of the Red Sox newest Valentines!

The Twins Get A Bargain With Willingham

2012-08-24T15:23:00.002-05:00

After having one of their worst seasons in recent memory the Minnesota Twins went into the 2012 off-season in need of major help. Justin Morneau only played in 69 games due to concussion symptoms and compiled an abysmal .274 wOBA. Joe Mauer dealt with a number of ailments, most notably bi-lateral leg weakness, and played in only 82 games. In those 82 games he only managed to have a .319 wOBA. That's not exactly what you want from the two highest paid players on your team. As a result the Twins went out and signed free agent, Josh Willingham, to a three year deal worth twenty one million dollars. To date that was the most expensive free agent contract that the Twins have given out, so they needed it to be a good deal. After the jump we will see how it's turned out so far.

Like I mentioned above, the Twins badly needed offensive help. In 2011 they only managed to accumulate 9.8 offensive WAR. That put them second to last and only ahead of the Seattle Mariners. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel were also free agents so the Twins desperately needed to make a move. Enter Josh Willingham. Willingham always had a ton of power, and posting an ISO above .200 was nothing new for him. He had never posted more than 3 WAR though and in the past he's struggled with injuries. The Twins saw something they liked though and decided to make an offer.

Boy, did that pay off. This season Willingham ranks ninth in wRC+ with 146 wRC+. He's done most of his damage at home, which is expected but Target Field has been known as a notorious pitchers park. At home he has a wRC+ of 179 and on the road he has a wRC+ of 114. He's also showing tremendous power numbers at Target Field, which is also surprising. His ISO at home is .327 compared to a .237 ISO at opponent's ballparks. Like I mentioned before Willingham has always had power numbers above league average. Here's a graphic to show you.

Source: FanGraphs -- Josh Willingham

Overall Willingham's ISO is all the up to .279. This year that's put him number five in all of baseball, not bad for a guy who's previous career high was .237. He's been a big part of their offensive success this year to say the least. The Twins rank thirteenth with 18.3 WAR and their 100 wRC+ ranks eighth.

With a little more than a month left in the season Willingham is having his best season to date. His 3.8 WAR is a career high and by the time the season's finished he should easily eclipse 4 WAR. He's giving the Twins a great return on his investment, he's already been worth $17 million of the $21 million that he's owed. Since it's highly unlikely that he repeats his performance the Twins should highly consider trading him for pitching help or any other type of prospects that teams are willing to give. The Twins signed this 33 year old outfielder and hoped that he would give them the boost they needed, and so far it's been an excellent signing.

Fantasy Friday: Injury Edition

2012-08-24T14:28:00.002-05:00

TGIFF! (Thank God it's Fantasy Friday!) If you are like me, it has been a long week full of weird happenings in baseball. The Rays apparently cannot lose, the Nationals have a tough decision to make re: Steven Strasburg, something something Mike Trout something something, etc. We are getting near September call-up time, probably the theme for next week's Fantasy Friday, and the new wildcard playoff format is leading to some exciting playoff races. All in all, baseball is giving us another incredible season. Even with all the excitement, it is easy as a fantasy owner to be frustrated with all the injuries hitting your team. After the jump, I will look at a handful of players who are on the DL and how you should react to that problem.
Firstly, if you are in a deep keeper-league, then this is probably not a great post for you. After all, what is a few weeks when you are able to hold that player for seasons to come? Generally (note the emphasis) speaking, I don't move injured players on my keeper team unless I see something else wrong with them.
That being said, and this applies to everyone, get to know your injuries. Some problems are one time events that are easy to recover from, while others cause structural damage and lead to further issues. This is why I do not trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy, but am totally ok with taking a risk on a post-Tommy John pitcher.
With that out of the way, it is time to get all nerdy up in here, much like the fantasy baseball scene in "Knocked Up", only with less bad plot-lines and much less smoking. I will start with players soon to come off the DL and then players with special cases.

Coming Off DL Soon:
1. Adam Lind, Blue Jays. Sources have him coming back next week, and with Toronto's horrible rash of injuries, his rehab might get pushed up even faster. I highly doubt he will be a huge asset for any team, aside from an incredibly deep AL-only league. He continues to display impatience and leads to a lot of strikeouts (career 19.7% K rate) and while he has ISO power (career 0.197), he simply does not seem to exhibit a consistent ability to hit the ball. Considering since 2011 he has played in a combined 183 games, I would tread carefully. Back injuries can flair up again and again; I highly doubt he has seen his last disabled list.

2. Pete Burjos, Angels. It sounds like a September return for the speedy outfielder. He definitely adds a valuable speed component to fantasy teams, but even when he comes back, don't expect a ton of playing time. Remember: this is the team with Mike Effing Trout, Torii "I'm Old But Still Good" Hunter, and Mark "People Should Talk About Me More" Trumbo. Consistent playing time will be an issue.

3. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays. Seriously, how 'snake bitten' can the Jays be? He is set to join the club around September 1st due to his broken hand healing a week ahead of schedule. I would count this as a freak injury, would not expect this is inhibit his playing, especially if he can DH some. In 81 games this year he is slashing 0.242/0.279/0.466. Not incredible numbers, but he is good enough that any playoff contention team might want to consider adding him now if you can. He is only owned by ~ 37% of Yahoo! leagues, so chances are you may be able to use him as a utility or second catcher.

Major Owies:
1. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies. He could come back as early as the second week of September, but considering the Phillies lack of playoff chances, it is conceivable that Philly will wait to make sure he is super-healthy before he joins the club. Note: my source in the Phillies Front Office won't comment on that conjecture, so read into that what you will. He is obviously having a great season, so keep tabs on him and perhaps pick him up if an owner was foolish enough to cut him. His injury is plantar faciitis, which for him is alright due to the fact he can't get much slower.

2. Joey Votto, Reds. He is still out with an uncertain timeline for returning. That being said, if he is a free agent in your league, you are in a terrible league. Enough said.

3. Brett Lawrie, Michael Cuddyer, Brett Gardner. All three have strange situations. All three could possibly miss the rest of the season. All three could play in mid-late September. All three are definitely worth keeping tabs on and picking up if available (and in most leagues they are). Lawrie recently had a rehab problem (of the injury kind, not of the substance abuse variety) so keep that in mind.

Overall, the waiver wire is usually littered with players on the disabled list for various reasons. Do research on what the injury is and how soon they could return. Not all injuries are the same; do not be foolish enough to treat them like they are. This is one area where alert owners can find market inefficiencies and get good talent for cheap. As always, let me know if you have any fantasy questions: Twitter (@timnicodemus) or in the comments section.

New Site

2012-08-23T15:47:00.001-05:00

Hey there, my name is Alex and I am the founder of Saber Analysis. As of today Blogger is the new home for this blog. Saber Analysis is a blog that's dedicated to sabermetrics and everything else baseball. Currently there are two writers, myself and Tim. I just wanted to let you know that when I imported the articles from the old site it made everything written by me. That is in fact not true. Tim is our fantasy guru and he also had written a lot of other pieces. I'm sure you'll be able to tell the difference based on our styles. A lot of the other articles that were written 4-5 months ago were written by a person named Lee, but he went and wrote for a Braves blog called Tomahawk Take. For our old readers we hope you keep reading, and for our new readers we hope you enjoy!

-Alex

Tom Tango Would Like a Word

2012-08-22T16:58:00.000-05:00

Actually, more like he wants smart, observant baseballing enthusiasts (such as this readership) to help in his annual crowd-sourcing project. In a nutshell, 'crowd-sourcing' is using the collective intellect of a group to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. By using a large sample size of entries, the variance (of extreme answers) is reduced and meaningful data can be gathered. He explains it better than me, that is why HE is well-known Tom Tango and I am aggressively-good-looking-but-unknown Tim Nicodemus, so just follow the link and help him out. And for the love of goodness, somebody do the Padres.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/scouting_report_2012_by_the_fans_for_the_fans/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

You may now return to your baseball-watching, blog-reading, cigar-smoking lives. If you are into that kind of thing.

A Look At The "Other" Rookies - Pitchers

2012-08-19T12:25:00.000-05:00

Unless you've been living under a rock you've known that Los Angeles Angels outfield phenom Mike Trout has been tearing up baseball. Bryce Harper of the Nationals had a hot stretch but has since cooled off. Those aren't the only rookies who are playing this year though. There are a ton of rookie pitchers this year that deserve to be talked about. In this piece I will be talking about three pitchers who are working on their first full year in the big leagues.

The first rookie starting pitcher that I will be looking at is Arizona Diamondback, Wade Miley. Miley was taken in the first round of the 2008 draft and since then he's done a good job at progressing through the minor leagues. Last season he made seven starts but was anything but impressive. He had a 5.08 FIP and struggled with his command. This year he has performed much better. He's only walked batters 4% of the time, but it's that number is like to rise as he pitches in more games. In the minors he never walked batters less than 6% of the time. He's also done a good job at limiting the long ball. Through 143 innings he's only given up 10 home runs. Overall he has a 3.14 FIP and a 3.77 SIERA. That comes down to 3.6 fWAR on the season, and in terms of all rookie pitchers that is the highest. It's hard t0 say how good Miley will be going forward but so far this year he has pitched like a #1-2 pitcher.

The major league debut of Texas Rangers starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, was highly anticipated. After spending over $100 million in order to obtain him, the Texas Rangers had high hopes that he would become an ace for their staff. While he has had some good moments he has also struggled. One thing that leaps out is problems with his command. His 12.2 BB% is one of the worst in all of baseball. Only Edison Volquez, Carlos Zambrano and Ubaldo Jiminez have higher marks. On the other hand he's also doing a tremendous job at striking batters out. His 26.3 K% ranks third in the game, the only two pitchers with a higher number are Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. His 3.74 FIP isn't bad but it isn't where you want your ace to be. His 3.1 fWAR is a good number but according to Baseball-Reference's version of WAR he's only been worth 1.6 WAR. This is because of his high 4.81 R/9. There's no doubt that Darvish can be a good pitcher but he has some work to do before he can achieve that.

Last off-season the Oakland A's had an old fashion "fire sale". They traded starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. As part of the deal that sent Cahill to Arizona the A's received Jarrod Parker in return. In his first stint in the big leagues Parker has looked fairly impressive. He's striking batters out nearly 19% of the time and as time goes on he could see that go above 20%. He's always had a high number of walks so it's entirely plausible that his 9.7 BB% stays. He's done a good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark, he's only given up 6 home runs. His 4.29 is fairly high but he's still been worth +2 WAR. Parker should be a solid middle of the rotation guy as he gets more experience.

Fantasy Friday: Buy and Sell

2012-08-17T12:29:00.000-05:00

With most leagues ending in a few weeks, now is NOT the time to be sitting idly by and not making moves. Last week, I covered generic strategies for whatever position you find your teams. This week I want to look at various players that you all requested and/or I have been interested in recently. Don't forget to send me Fantasy questions over twitter (@timnicodemus) or email (timnicodemus3@gmail.com). Who is a good pick? Who should get dropped? Answers, jokes, and wOBA to follow.

Buy:

1. Chase Utley. I know he is hitting terribly as of late. I know he is not 100% from his injuries. But in 40 games, he has put together a 1.5 WAR season (roughly 6 WAR if he had played the whole year). Also, I will go out on a limb here, and say that I fully expect his 0.226 BABIP to regress higher. It certainly can't get much worse. BABIP may not be all luck, but he is a good hitter who should be able to improve his hitting stats by continuing to work hard and get some hits away from fielders. Another hidden benefit (to non-sabermetric minded people) is that he is continuing his career ability to strike-out less and walk more than league average. This is particularly helpful for leagues when getting on base counts. And let me honest; part of my love for him is because I want to 'have a catch' with him.

2. Mike Moustakas: I own him in two leagues, and I'll be honest-- I almost dropped him several times this season. Sure, he has good upside, but if you have him in a non-keeper league, then his sub-0.200 average the past month is scary. Even with that, he is still wOBA-ing (is that a word?) 0.318 on the season. His 0.192 ISO is still a sign of his ability to pound the ball, and he is actually striking out less than league average. That stat surprised me, but he is slightly-better-than-average in wOBA and K%. Considering he is also getting slightly unlucky with his BABIP, that is a good sign for a good end of season. If an owner in your league panicked and dropped him, grab him quick. If not, maybe an artfully worded trade for him. Example, "I could use a 3B and I noticed Moustakas has been on a slide recently. Want Kelly Johnson for him?" Laugh uproariously when the offer is accepted.

3. Justin Masterson: I know his record is 9-10 and this does nothing good for W-L heavy leagues, but as I talked about last week, he is playing good baseball. He carries risk, as his meltdowns recently have been to the tune 7,8,6 and 8 earned runs, but aside from two dreadful starts, his control is improving and is league-average in walk and strike out rates. Not ace level, but league-average is very acceptable at this point in the year. Don't play him against high octane offenses, and you should see your pitching stats improve.

Sell:

1. Chris Young: I was unapologetic about picking this kid in a few leagues. Even through his injury, I was sure he would come back on the great season he had early. But since he has come back, he has been rather dreadful. His 20-20 talent has been reduced to a full-season adjusted 20-10. His strike out rate is higher than it should be, and while his slugging ability should come around, his 0.211 average is going to decimate you if you are in a league where that matters. If you can cover the risk, he does have upside, but if you are offered a trade for him, I would take it.

2. Trevor Cahill: I would maybe classify him as a 'watch' than 'sell' but I only have the two categories, so here he is. My rationale for this designation: he is not going deep into games and is not exhibiting the ability to be either a control artist or strike out pitcher. His WHIP might be league-average, but his FIP is not. An increase in his HR/FB ratio, currently 14.7%, spells continued trouble. Maybe keep him if you are in a crazy deep league, but consider a trade for a player with better upside if you can.

3. Wandy Rodriguez: This might be the most obvious of the six, but even with his change to a better team, his performance has been, politely, terrible. Once considered a decent strike out pitcher, his 5.85 K/9 is just upsetting. Sure, his control is coming around, but there are only so many ways to dress up a 4.05 FIP, 4.06 ERA, and 4.18 xFIP. (Translation, he could actually be considered lucky). Not exactly what owners want to hear. Oh and yes, the last time he had a start without giving up at least 3 earned runs was July 7th. He has 25 starts, but only 9 have been with him giving up 0-2 earned runs. Not good.

Overall, I encourage you to dig past who is 'hot' or 'cold'. BABIP is a good place to start, so are other regressive stats, like LOB% or HR/FB%. And DO NOT get too caught up in WAR. It is a great overall stat to compare players, but it factors in (too much, in my opinion) extremes in fielding, which is not a category most leagues care about. Until next week, keep on with the fantasy domination.

Fantasy Friday: Post-Trade Deadline Strategies

2012-08-10T16:51:00.000-05:00

Much like empires, stock markets, and the Vengaboys (obscure Europop reference, ftw), baseball players have their ups and downs. Because of this volatility, fantasy owners are stuck w0rrying about what lineup will get them the most points. In my experience, this problem is exacerbated after the Trade Deadline, ie when the playoff races start for fantasy leagues. Seriously, if you did not realize that your league ends before the MLB regular season ends either: 1. You have a commissioner that needs to learn about fantasy sports or 2. You really need to start paying attention. In other words, now is the time that a lot of fantasy owners make moves in order to get in better position for a run in the playoffs. This post is going to discuss general strategies for each position and throw in some players that should be considered or avoided. Let the playoff hunt begin!

Position #1: Dead Last/Near the Bottom

At this point you are either mathematically eliminated from playoff contention or you will be facing a crazy high seed that will destroy you in the first round. If you are in a non-keeper league that only lets the top four teams into the playoffs, then congratulations your role is secured! You are now the 'spoiler' trying to win a few weeks to knock your rival out of contention. Don't be 'that guy' who just gives up-- that shows bad sportsmanship and is a jerk-bag thing to do. Instead, stay on the waiver wire, continue to steal some 'hot' players and then trade them for actually good players, etc. For example, I still do not understand why Alex Rios is only starting in ~70% of Yahoo! leagues. Are other leagues, like, 4 player leagues? He has been a dependable utility player for me all season. Ryan Roberts is being talked about, but his torrid pace will probably slow down, so maybe trade him quick for some of that elusive relief pitching. And if you got rid of Evan Longoria because of his injury... well, that's probably why you are struggling. Don't be stupid next time. You know who are you, good friend who asked me about needing a third baseman...

Position #2: Middle of the Pack

Ok, so you have kept with your team all season long. You made sure to start your pitchers correctly and have made decent trades. Perhaps a few injuries have hurt you at all the wrong times. No matter the reason, being in the middle is not a bad place to be. The goal is to, obviously, maximize your upside. That being said, the 'risk-reward' curve is forcing you to take more risks. If you notice the people ahead of you are taking foolish risks, then by all means back off and wait for their collapse. However, 99.9% of the time, being on the playoff bubble will require you to be bold. What does this look like? For one, hammer the waiver wire. As soon as someone drops a good but 'cold' player, pick him up quickly. For example, Brandon Morrow is going to make one more rehab start before coming back to the Majors. It is very possible he is still sitting on the DL wire, so grab him before his former owner gets him back. This is not a place to be timid. Pay attention and maybe try a good old fashioned 'trade rape'.

Position # 3: In Playoff Picture

For most leagues, this means top four teams. The key here is to keep doing what you are doing.Your strategy has gotten you this far, don't get too risky. That being said, if you are in a keeper league, this is where you maybe lose an older player for a young minor leaguer/ rookie. Look to trade to an owner who wants to make the playoffs this year. You can always add a little bit of risk and get someone like Heath Bell, who should be moving back into the closer role. Sidenote, finding a group of reliable closers has been a huge issue this year for most teams. Unless you got crazy lucky, this is one position where risk is pretty mandatory. Another good add for any league would be Mike Aviles. He can play a handful of positions and is still flying under the radar (owned in 66% of Yahoo leagues), probably due to the Red Sox struggles. Josh Hamilton is struggling and a lot of owners might dump him (like idiots) for a cheap trade. Just a thought.

Position #4: First Place, jerks

If you are in a league where your friends are not into baseball, you could be cruising. For example, in one league I am 15-2 and have already won my division. If you are like the 'Wacky Deacs', then congratulations on choosing friends who are terrible. If this is the case, jut make sure you are managing your team enough to not lose a heartbreaking game in the playoffs. If its a keeper league, you should restructure some contracts (if you can) and add some great young talent for cheap. If your first place hold is more tenuous, then do what you need to stay in first-- it is the easiest way to a championship. Justin Masterson has been playing much better recently and could add some average strikeout numbers. Aaron Harang is also under-appreciated. Sure, the Dodgers are fizzling ( and therefore won't add wins for him) but he is a great guy to have to add innings and average all -around stats. What you want to do in this position is make small changes that give you slight advantages. Big trades could hurt you down the road. Realize that the other owners will be doing what I wrote about early (ie making bold moves to get ahead). Stay the course.

And for the love of all that is good, get Manny Machado.

The Twins Have Found a Diamond In The Rough

2012-08-10T09:10:00.000-05:00

It's no secret that the Minnesota Twins' pitching staff is having a horrendous season. Their 4.69 FIP is last in the American League and is only ahead of the Colorado Rockies 4.70 FIP. Overall there isn't much to be excited about when a Twins pitcher takes the mound. Recently that has changed though. In 2010 the Twins selected starting pitcher, Scott Diamond. Diamond was with the Braves at the time of his selection. As spring training was coming to a close the Twins traded relief pitcher Billy Bullock to Atlanta, and that allowed them to send Diamond to the minors. Diamond struggled in the seven games he started last year, but this year has been a whole different story.

Going into the season Scott Diamond started out in the Minnesota Twins AAA affiliate, the Rochester Redwings. He wasn't there long though, after six starts he got the call to the big leagues. Even though he was called up a month after the season started he leads the Twins with 2.3 rWAR after 114 innings pitched. He currently has a 3.66 FIP which is a good number, and in the end probably makes him a solid #2-#3 starter. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, far from it actually as the velocity on his fastball sits around 89-90 mph. As a result Diamond has to a good job at locating his pitches. He's achieved that so far and has also done a tremendous job at limiting walks. As of today he's only walked 3.4% of all batters, that's good for the lowest in baseball.

It's hard to say if Diamond remains this good heading into next year. His GB% is a relatively high 55.9%, that's a number that will likely come down as he continues to pitch in the big leagues. That doesn't mean that he won't be a groundball pitcher though. As of right now it seems extremely plausible. He has a four seam fastball and a two seam fastball and when he throws either he gets a groundball 59% of the time. More often than not he throws his four seam fastball. While it seems like we can count on him being a groundball pitcher don't expect him to strikeout tons of batters anytime soon. This year he's only struck out 13% of all batters that he's faced. Going forward that's probably what we should expect.

In terms of what to expect going forward and to see what type of pitcher Diamond could become I looked at this leaderboard. Shockingly a familiar name comes up for Twins fans. That name is Brad Radke. Radke had a very good and possibly underrated career in Minnesota. He finished his career with 42 rWAR and shares some traits with Diamond. Both rely, or in Radke's case relied, on pinpoint control. Neither were big strikeout guys, although Radke hit above 16% a few times. Their fastball also topped out in the 89-90 mph range. Radke wasn't as big of a groundball pitcher as Diamond is though. Radke had some really good seasons though, he went over 5 rWAR four times. It will be interesting to see if Diamond is able to accomplish that.

Diamond is only 26 years old and hasn't even entered his prime, pitchers also age much differently than hitters so it's highly possible that Diamond has a solid 10 year career ahead of him. I would say his floor right now is a number three guy, but it's possible that he develops into a solid number two.

A Tale Of Two Similar Pitchers

2012-08-08T07:28:00.000-05:00

Here are two pitchers that have both pitched for the same team. Which pitcher would you rather have on your team? Since 2009 one of them has struggled but before then he was extremely productive. The other pitcher debuted in 2006 and is currently one of the best pitchers in baseball. Here are their stats:

Pitcher A (2002-2009):

K%: 18.80% BB%: 6.90% HR/FB: 9.30% GB%: 43.2%

ERA: 3.81 FIP: 3.83 xFIP: 4.00 WAR: 31.3

Pitcher B (2006-2012):

K%: 21% BB%: 6.50% HR/FB: 7.50% GB%: 33.6%

ERA: 3.19 FIP: 3.59 xFIP: 4.04 WAR: 27.4

If you haven't figured out who they are yet, you'll find out after the jump.

Player A is John Lackey while he was with the Los Angeles Angels. Player B is current Los Angeles Angels ace, Jered Weaver. It may seem surprising to some, but not long ago John Lackey was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. From 2005-2007 there were only a handful of pitchers that could say they were better than the Angels ace. Some other pitchers that can claim they were better or were just as good include Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, and CC Sabathia.

I used FanGraphs handy filtering system on their custom leaderboards (HIGHLY recommended) and took a look at all pitchers who had a K% >= 20%, a BB% <= 8% and a FIP <= 3.40 to get a deeper look at Lackey.

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His 3.34 FIP during that time is a little high for a number one pitcher, ideally you'd want it below 3.30. His 3.88 SIERA is the highest of the bunch though and that is definitely worrisome. He did do a goob job striking out batters, but his BB% was tied for last with Roger Clemens. He also did a good job limiting strikeouts, his HR/9 was one of the best in the group. Lackey also posted solid numbers in his first three seasons (2002-2005) as well as in his last two seasons and first season in Boston (2008-2010).

For some reason Lackey has really struggled in Boston though. In two seasons he's seen his SIERA spike all the way to 4.22 and 4.50. He's also seen his K% decrease the last two seasons as well. I'm not quite sure what the cause is because he hasn't lost any velocity on his fastball at (91 mph vFA) and he's a groundball pitcher. One would think that he would be fine in Boston.

I did the same thing with Weaver but I looked at his 2009-2011 seasons. The results are pretty interesting.

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Jered Weaver's 3.42 FIP during his three year stretch has actually been worse than Lackey's. Weaver does have a better SIERA then Lackey, though. Weaver also has struck out more batters and has walked less, albeit it's been only .5% less. In terms of fWAR though Lackey was the more valuable one though. Lackey was worth two more wins than Weaver was.

I addressed it a little above, but again, why did Lackey start struggling so bad when he reached Boston? I looked at FanGraph's park factors to get a better idea. At Fenway both left handed and right handed batters have a bigger advantage when it comes to doubles. Other then that I couldn't find much. It's entirely possible that Lackey just started to wear down as he reached and passed age 30. That doesn't mean that will happen to Weaver though. While Lackey and Weaver aren't entirely similar to each other they do have a lot of traits that the other has. It will be interesting to see how Weaver ages, especially since he will be in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future.

Here Ye, Here Ye: Major Announcement Edition

2012-08-07T18:37:00.000-05:00

When Alex and I met a couple of weeks ago in Minnesota, we discussed potential ideas for SaberAnalysis. Do not worry, faithful readership; we are both very much firmly involved in this blog. Rejoice, faithful readership, for we have two new weekly series coming your way. Both will be decidedly sabermetrical in perspective. Both will be interesting (I hope) and are designed to teach all of us more about baseball. Most importantly, I envision BOTH of these being driven by you, faithful readership.

New Series #1: Fantasy Fridays!

Alex and I both noticed a lack of fantasy talk on this site. He has asked me to head this up, as I really love talking fantasy strategies and trades. I am in more leagues than I care to mention (is my girlfriend reading this? If so, its definitely only one league...) but I also love advising friends on their teams. Tweet (@timnicodemus), email (timnicodemus3@gmail.com), or Facebook the SA fanpage with thoughts, questions, and/or concerns about your teams and players. Any waiver wire issues? Were you offered a trade? Hit me up! This series will take a hiatus when the Fantasy Season ends, but until then, I want to talk weekly about your fantasy questions.

New Series #2: The Hall of Unknown

This is my brainchild and I am genuinely excited about this project. It will be covering one player each week that you have either never heard of or know little about, but who is enshrined in Cooperstown. This is not going to be a 'Big Hall' versus 'Small Hall' debate per se-- the overarching goal is to educate us on players who were good but largely forgotten. If you have a player you would like to know more about, but don't have the time or energy to research, let me do it for you! Trust me, in the couple of players I have learned more about, there are some amazing stories to be told. Consider this a meeting of sabermetrics and baseball history. I have not heard of a project quite like this being done (except maybe the super cool Hall of Nearly Great) so I hope you will join me in shaping this new series that will carry us through the drab, boring baseball-less winter.

Any other topics you would like to see covered? Comment in the section below! We always want to hear how we can change to help you learn more about the greatest game on earth.

Andrew McCutchen and His Historic BABIP

2012-08-03T11:27:00.000-05:00

After having a career year last season Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder, Andrew McCutchen, was rewarded with a hefty pay raise. So far he's right where he left off last season. His 5.9 WAR is already more than the 5.7 WAR that he produced last season. His slash numbers are also currently career highs: .373/.432/.632. He's been nothing short of epic. He's had help though as evidence of his extremely high BABIP. As of today it is currently a robust .423. Where does that compare among others in history? How likely is it that he can maintain a high BABIP the rest of the way?

Like I stated in the opening paragraph, Andrew McCutchen has had a torrid season. His .432 BABIP plays a big part but what is causing his BABIP to be so high? The first thing that we need to look at is his LD%. His career LD% is 20% but this season he's hitting line-drives 23.6% of the time. That's a noticeable jump but it's not something that overly outrageous. In fact, league average LD% for this season is 20.8%. He currently has 71 line-drives that fell for hits and he should easily surpass the 90 line-drives from a year-ago. His LD% suggests that he could be in line for some regression.

I also took a look at his GB%, because like line-drives, groundballs tend to be hits more so than flyballs. This season McCutchen is hitting groundballs 44.2% of the time. That falls in line with every year besides last year, but nonetheless it is a factor. McCutchen is also one of the faster players in the league. While his SB% isn't great (66%) it still doesn't take away the fact that he has some wheels. It's widely known that faster players tend to have higher BABIPs (see Ichiro). It's also highly possible that McCutchen has run into some extremely good luck or that he's faced some poor defensive teams throughout the year.

I used an xBABIP calculator to see if this run was sustainable and as it turns out McCutchen should be facing some regression as the season goes on. The calculator said that McCutchen's BABIP should regress towards .339 the rest of season. That's a number that's much more sustainable, especially because McCutchen has a career .330 BABIP.

Where does his BABIP currently rank all-time though? I looked at all players since 1901 to see what the highest BABIP was, and the results were surprising. McCutchen's .423 BABIP currently ranks as the highest next to none other then Babe Ruth's during the 1923 season. Some other notable players and their BABIPs include:

1922 George Sisler (.422), 1922 Roger Hornsby (.422) and 1916 Ty Cobb (.416). All of them besides Ruth finished with a batting average over .400. While it's unlikely McCutchen's average gets that high it's been a joy to watch. He's certainly having an outstanding season, and it's highly possible that, if he keeps it up, we won't see this high of a BABIP for years to come.