SACRAMENTO LAND(ING)

Sacramento Real Estate Market - July 2009 Water Cooler

2009-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

Sacramento DataQuick Stats for May 2009

2009-06-18T15:49:00.000-07:00

From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):

Sacramento County showed one of the biggest improvements regionally, with prices for existing homes alone climbing a dramatically higher 9.4 percent - from $160,000 in March and April to $175,000 in May. But that was still 22 percent below the May 2008 median of $225,000.

DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage attributed the abrupt May rise to a sales mix reflecting fewer hugely discounted bank repos and more higher-priced homes. "It's not home appreciation," he said. "It's just getting back to a more normal distribution of sales across the home price spectrum." Still, he said, "It could be that we've seen the lowest median in Sacramento County."

Statistics by county
Statistics by zip
Other Central Valley counties [pdf]

Also: Sacramento area misses move-up homebuyers -- they're staying put

Sacramento Real Estate Market - June 2009 Water Cooler

2009-06-01T22:18:00.000-07:00

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

Repo Flood or Trickle?

2009-05-26T13:47:00.000-07:00

From the Sacramento Bee:

More than 20,000 troubled homes are growing into a massive "phantom" inventory that could potentially be unloaded onto an already fragile housing market.
...
[ForeclosureRadar's Sean] O'Toole, for one, believes big banks may continue to foreclose more slowly, and will "dribble out" their accumulated repo properties in hopes of a market change. "I talk to them," he said. "It's like, 'If we don't foreclose, we see the market heat up again. You get a certain number of people who believe it's a bottom and the prices come back. Then we don't need to foreclose. These people can sell and get out from under them and we end up OK.' " Dribbling them out slowly would keep prices stable, he said. But it also would prolong the housing correction.
...
Field Check's [Mark] Hanson doesn't buy O'Toole's theory, even as they work off the same data. He predicts a flood of cheap repo inventory on the market this summer. "The government and bank-specific moratoriums and modification initiatives have held back the massive wave of foreclosures," he said, "kicking the can down the road. But there is only so high the floodwaters can build before breaking the dam."

Yet even a torrent of repo inventory on the market won't pull median prices – now at $160,000 for existing Sacramento County homes – any lower, he said. That's because more higher-priced homes are in the foreclosure process and will tug the median upward in coming months. "It does not mean the market is getting better," he said.

Sacramento Real Estate Market - May 2009 Water Cooler

2009-05-24T16:41:00.000-07:00

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

DataQuick's Sacramento Real Estate Market Statistics for April 2009

2009-05-21T13:17:00.000-07:00

SacBee: Area median home prices begin to stabilize
Updated: Capital-area home prices stop slide, for now
DataQuick's Sacramento real estate market statistics: by zip, by county
Modesto Bee: Stockton Metro At 1999 Levels

Sacramento Real Estate Market Charts - April 2009

2009-05-15T12:55:00.000-07:00

After steadily declining this spring, average price per square foot rose 1.8% from March. According to TrendGraphix, that was the first monthly increase in Sacramento County since April 2007. Prices are still below January levels and down 23.1% from last year.

Turning to median price, the Sacramento Association of Realtors reports the median price in Sacramento County (and West Sacramento) fell 29.5% in April. That was the first year-over-year decline since March 2008 not to reach at least -30%.

So far, no "spring bounce" for median price as measured by the MLS. The median for single-family homes has been essentially flat since February. Unlike the previous three years, the median price has remained below January levels.

The median price is now at April 2001 levels.

Sales in April were 17% higher than the previous year. That was the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2008.

Looking at the historical record, sales remain at relatively high levels. While the inevitable spring bounce between February and March was the weakest in at least 9 years, that is not surprising considering the record sales of January and February.

Here's a look at the percentage of MLS sales which were bank-owned. At its peak in January 2009, REO sales made up three-fourths of total MLS sales. That proportion has dropped off in the last few months as REO inventory has shrunk, presumably due to legislative tinkering and private foreclosure moratoriums.

Finally, here's an update on Sacramento County's foreclosure statistics from ForeclosureRadar.

NY Times: Signs of Recovery in Sacramento's Housing Market

2009-05-04T21:52:00.000-07:00

From the New York Times:

Is this what a bottom looks like? This city was among the first in the nation to fall victim to the real estate collapse. Now it seems to be in the earliest stages of a recovery, a hopeful sign for an economy mired in trouble and anxiety.

The Times cites increased sales to investors and first-time buyers, reduced inventory, and stabilizing prices as signs of recovery.

“It’s fragile, and it could easily be fleeting,” said an MDA DataQuick analyst, Andrew LePage. “But history suggests this is how things might look six months before prices bottom out.”...No one in Sacramento is predicting that local housing prices, which have been cut in half from their mid-2005 peak, are going to reclaim much of that ground anytime soon. Instead, this is what passes for wild-eyed optimism: a belief that things have finally stopped getting worse. “A period of price stagnation would boost a lot of spirits,” Mr. LePage said.
...
“[Upcoming wave of foreclosures]...will stall any progress toward stability,” said Michael Lyon, chief executive of Lyon Real Estate. “The prospects for a recovery are fool’s gold.” Mr. Lyon expects further price declines and slowing sales. But David Berson, the chief economist for the mortgage insurer PMI, argues that such bleakness from the people whose livelihood is selling houses is itself a positive sign. “Things are awful at the bottom, and we’re at the bottom,” Mr. Berson said. “No question about it. But the trend going forward should be higher sales, and that will eventually affect prices.”

Have we hit bottom? Please vote in the poll on the right. Add your opinion in the comments below.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Nearly four years into California's housing downturn, close to 24,000 Sacramento-area homes and apartments are vacant, a number that climbed 40 percent in the past year, according to a Bee analysis of federal data. Roughly a third, or about 7,200, of the six-county region's vacant homes have been empty longer than a year. About 3,500 have been empty longer than two years.
...
Reasons vary for the surge of vacant dwellings. Area real estate agents and others Monday cited recent foreclosure moratoriums and banks increasingly sitting on large numbers of repossessed homes. Apartment communities also report rising vacancies as 11.3 percent regional unemployment forces renters to double up or move back in with family members.

ACORN to the rescue

2009-04-29T13:46:00.000-07:00

"Protesters disrupted several foreclosure auctions Tuesday on the Sacramento County Courthouse steps, winning a temporary cancellation of one and sending an unidentified auctioneer to the hospital with chest pains. Bidders on dozens of foreclosed Sacramento-area homes, all declining to provide their names, called the ACORN protest the first major disruption of an established auction schedule that plays out every weekday at the courthouse...."

More from the Sacramento Bee.

Baghdad Bob of Real Estate, Arizona Edition

2009-04-29T10:57:00.000-07:00

From the New York Times (hat tip HBB):

Phoenix has achieved the unwelcome distinction of becoming the first major American city where home prices have fallen in half since the market peaked in the middle of the decade, according to data released Tuesday. Though historical statistics are scant, experts said the precipitous decline probably had few if any equals in modern times.
...
Greg Swann, a Phoenix real estate agent, took a moment to marvel at the news. “What happened here will some day be a new chapter in ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,’ ” the classic survey of investing mania, he said. “We were living during the boom like there was no tomorrow. And guess what? Now it’s tomorrow.”

Greg Swann, June 2006: 21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market . . .

"Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?" Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings.
...
We keep our own home sales price statistics, so we have no doubt that values are down from their high in December. How much? Right now, about 4%. Could they go lower? Certainly. Will they drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely. What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year’s buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth — historically 6% a year. The reason this should happen is very simple: Population growth. Metropolitan Phoenix is a unique real estate market.
...
The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish. You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along.

A reader's response in the comments:

Garth Farkley July 29th, 2006 7:10 pm

Just remember, Greg, the internet is forever. Some of us will be right and some will be wrong. I acknowledge the possibility of my own error. In my experience humility is generally a mark of wisom. You, however, set yourself up as an icon of certitude. Good luck with it. Time will certainly tell.

80% Off

2009-04-27T13:02:00.000-07:00

From the Sacramento Bee:

It's now possible to buy a Sacramento home for less than the price of a Honda Accord. At least two dozen homes in the Sacramento region sold during the last three months for $25,000 or less....In Oak Park and Del Paso Heights...median home prices have fallen 80 percent from their mid-2006 peak to around $60 a square foot.
...
On Tuesday...Deutsche Bank lowered the price on a vacant, 728-square-foot home on 21st Avenue in the heart of Oak Park from $29,000 to $19,000. The house had belonged to the same family for years. An investor purchased it for $197,000, or $270 per square foot, in mid-2005, property records show...Seven months after buying it, the first investor sold the property again to another out-of-town buyer for $255,000, or $350 per square foot. In December, Deutsche Bank foreclosed. Today, the home is selling for $26 per square foot.
...
Most real estate experts expect many more sub-$25,000 homes on the market. They predict more foreclosures, leading to more vacant homes, leading to more desperate banks..."There's a whole lot of inventory that has not been cleared," said [Real estate investor Reggie] Lal, the real estate investor, referring to foreclosures still on the market. The number of homes selling for less than $25,000, he added, is "going to explode."

Sacramento Real Estate Market - April 2009 Water Cooler

2009-04-26T14:42:00.000-07:00

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

Redfin Comes to Sacramento

2009-04-23T12:26:00.000-07:00

Redfin Expands to New York, California's Central Valley
Blog: Sacramento Sweet Digs
Sacramento Homes For Sale/Market Trends
All Sacramento Area Cities

Price Per Square Foot: Spring Slide (So Far)

2009-04-16T22:20:00.000-07:00

Unlike other measures of home prices, there has been no "spring bounce" (so far) when price is measured by square foot. In fact, in contrast to the previous three years, prices have neither bounced nor plateaued. Whether this descent will continue or is merely a lagging indicator remains to be seen.

DataQuick: Sacramento Median Price Up From February

2009-04-16T14:37:00.000-07:00

From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):

...[T]he median sales price for new and existing homes combined in Sacramento County rose for the first time in more than a year to $165,000, up $5,000 from February's median.

DataQuick numbers by county here. By zip here.

DataQuick figures for San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced here (updated).

ForeclosureRadar: Sacramento Defaults Hit New High

2009-04-14T14:52:00.001-07:00

Calling All First-Time Homebuyers

2009-04-14T14:50:00.000-07:00

A reporter from a national newspaper would like to interview first-time homebuyers in our area. If you are interested, please contact me and I will forward your e-mail on to the reporter.

The Bay Area will save us...or not

2009-04-08T02:13:00.000-07:00

I'd be remiss if I didn't post links to the following set of articles. As the Sacramento housing market descended into the abyss, the Sacramento Bee floated (or pushed depending on your point of view) a series of bullish arguments about the local real estate market. Bullish theories included:

Rents are about to skyrocket
Sacramento's strong economy will blunt the effects of the housing downturn
The housing downturn won't be as severe/long as the 1990s housing bust
Renewed Bay Area migration will save us as Sacramento homes are now so cheap in comparison
High-end/"core areas" are recession proof

The paper has conceded that the first three theories haven't actually worked out as planned (to say the least). Now it looks like they have capitulated on the "Bay Area will save use" theory:

In area conversations about real estate it's often an act of faith that a widening gap between Sacramento and Bay Area home prices might soon spark a new migration east to buy houses cheap and put an end to free-falling prices here.

Nice theory. But wrong. The once-widening gap that seemed to promise help has already closed. While 17 months ago the median sales price in Santa Clara County was $388,000 higher than in Sacramento County, it's now $248,000 higher, says researcher MDA DataQuick. Prices have tumbled in both counties to narrow the original gap.

It means we won't be seeing thousands of Bay Area residents coming anytime soon to prop up Sacramento's housing market or, by extension, its stores, office buildings and economy.

When they capitulate on the last theory (high-end immunity), we should be much closer to bottom.

More from the Stockton Record:

If you're a homeowner hoping for an equity-swelling Boom II, fed by Bay Area residents swarming back over the Altamont Pass again to start snapping up cheaper Valley home prices, forget about it - at least anytime soon. Home sellers and builders report that few Bay Area buyers are out shopping for homes in San Joaquin County, even with prices having been cut by almost 44 percent year-to-year to a median of $155,000 in February. Existing homes in Contra Costa County are moving at a median sales price of not much more than $200,000, for example, after prices shrank by 52.2 percent year to year in the foreclosure-hammered residential downturn.

"I don't see Bay Area buyers coming back yet, because the prices there are so affordable and the interest rates are so good," said Jerry Abbott, president and co-owner of Grupe Real Estate in Stockton...When a "normal" market returns, Bay Area prices will regain its typically much higher, pricier ground, and Central Valley prices will look much more attractive again, they said. "It will come back but not anytime soon," Abbott said.

Sacramento Real Estate Market - March 2009 Water Cooler

2009-03-29T19:29:00.000-07:00

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market here. Please read the comment policy before posting.

California's Baghdad Bob of Real Estate Award

2009-03-26T13:33:00.000-07:00

First nominee: Gary Watts

O.C. prognosticator defaults on rental house

More here, here, and here.

DataQuick: Sacramento Median Price Back to 2000 Levels

2009-03-20T12:28:00.000-07:00

Another milestone.

From the Sacramento Bee:

Prices keep falling.

February brought the lowest median sales price to Sacramento County's housing market since December 2000 as bank repos drove a decline to $160,000, researcher MDA DataQuick said Thursday. The county median...is down 59 percent from a 2005 high of $387,000.

Statistics by county

Modesto & Stockton metros are now down 66% from peak, while Merced hit -72%.

Novice Investors, Rents, and the Modern Boarding House

2009-03-19T13:30:00.000-07:00

From the Sacramento Bee:

Free-falling home prices and thousands of bank repos have pulled investors back into the Sacramento housing market at levels not seen since the headiest days of the housing boom, new statistics show. Preliminary estimates from researcher MDA DataQuick indicate that 28.4 percent of February buyers in Sacramento County were investors aiming to buy, repair and rent out their new acquisitions.
...
[Ian] Maker [of ReMax] said, "There's a lot of people with money, but it's not the old people we used to see. It's not the pros. It's new money coming in."
...
[A] veteran [investor] said a lot of investors jumped in too early, a year or more ago, and are stressed now by debt, falling values and downward pressure on rents. He said many owe more than they collect in rent, which may result in a new series of foreclosures.

From News 10:

About a year ago, the apartment rental market was booming because people living in foreclosed homes moved from owning to renting. But now, things are starting to slow....There's a glut of apartments in the Sacramento area with "For Rent" signs outside. News10 spoke with some landlords who say that units usually only stay vacant for up to 30 days, but lately, it's been two to three months.

From KPBS:

Faced with shrinking incomes and home values, more people are opening up their houses to strangers. We're talking about the modern boarding house, where homeowners rent out bedrooms in order to keep making the mortgage payment.
...
A lot of people in Christin Barron’s position might just give up. She and her husband Efrain paid $400,000 for their four-bedroom, three-bath home a couple of years ago. Now it’s worth maybe $300,000. It’s in an Elk Grove neighborhood where foreclosure signs are about as common as mailboxes..."I made a list of things I could do to bring in more income and one of them was renting out the room." She put an ad on Craigslist for two of the four bedrooms. At first, no hits. Then she lowered the rent from $525 dollars to $400. A woman in her 60’s is taking one. The other’s still up for grabs.

SacBee on DataQuick's February stats

Buyer's Remorse Version 2008

2009-03-11T21:51:00.000-07:00

From the Sacramento Bee:

Shania Jensen sat in the kitchen of her 2,700 square-foot home in Roseville's Crocker Ranch neighborhood and uttered three words that no homebuyer ever wants to say aloud. "I regret buying," Jensen said simply.

She and her husband, Steve Liggett, had been renting for two years, waiting for the right home. The wait ended in May 2008. "We thought we were getting a great deal on this," she said of the $419,000 purchase price. But today other new homes in the neighborhood are selling for under $400,000.
...
"With the taxes right now, if we end up deciding to leave, we'll leave California," Jensen said.

Ryan Jessup: Sacramento Bee's Latest Housing Bubble "Victim"

2009-03-10T09:00:00.000-07:00

One of the most disappointing aspects of the media's coverage since the housing bubble burst (besides the blind reliance on "expert" opinion), has been the parade of so-called victims. Is it just me, or has the media struggled mightily in its search for legitimate causalities of the housing bubble fiasco? Are they looking in the wrong places? Is it simply that there is not enough genuine victims?

I pondered these questions as I read an article by Jim Wasserman in Sunday's Sacramento Bee. Among others, the story profiles a man by the name of Ryan Jessup, who "walked away" from his Oak Park house (this site says it was a short sale).

[M]any who can afford their payments have decided it's no longer worth it. They walk, or, as is becoming the trend, park rent-free in the house for months until they get the boot.

It's a question that Ryan Jessup of Sacramento answered a year ago, when he, too, sensed the financial game had turned against him. Early in 2008, the software engineer stopped making payments on his Victorian house in Oak Park. A long habit of playing by the rules, he said, had provided him a good income, a credit score of 804 and a lovely $430,000 house. But when playing by the rules meant riding down the housing market to who knows where, he said, "It came down to morals or survival. I chose survival. It made no sense to stay."
...
Many borrowers like Clawson and Jessup no longer feel so obligated to a financial system they believe overstimulated the housing market, sold them questionable loan products, sometimes by fraud, and then didn't provide help they need in the face of falling home values.
...
Jessup walked away. "I haven't even looked (at the credit score)," he said. "It's like being hit by a train or a bus."
...
Jessup, looking back, has no regrets. He lives with a friend now who has also stopped making payments on a condo bought at the peak of the market in 2005.

What Mr. Wasserman didn't say in the article is that apparently Ryan Jessup has quite the history of touting the virtues of Sacramento real estate in comments at sacbee.com. As the name sounded familiar, I dug through Sacramento Land(ing)'s "save for future use" folder and ran across some quotes by a sacbee.com commenter named "rjessup2mouse." Could rjessup2mouse be Ryan Jessup?

I started to read the article's comments and sure enough, rjessup2mouse, purporting to be Ryan Jessup quickly chimed in on his own story:

rjessup2mouse wrote on 03/08/2009 06:47:04 AM:

Good article Jim - this is a very hotly debated topic right now and weighing on alot of peoples minds. yes the house was actually in a nice neighborhood. Not all of Oak Park is bad... I was extremely choosy of where I bought and wanted to be closer to downtown as I figured the value would hold up better. It did but still fell enough for me to leave. I did not think it would increase in price when I bought it. I am sure alot of people on this board are going to be angry - I figured as much - I am not happy with the way it turned out and I lost alot of $$$ on it. But to me it was better to lose alot then to lose it all (and keep losing). One of the reasons I chose to be a part of the article was for the people who were not speculators or anyone who thought the market would go up forever. Just for normal people who had always played by the rules and then the game changed. Each situation is different and deciding to miss that first payment is a tough one.

Assuming that rjessup2mouse really is Ryan Jessup, let's take a look at how Jessup got to the point of parting with his own bit of Sacramento real estate. Below are some excerpts from comments made by Ryan Jessup over the last few years. Jessup's arguments (and tone) nicely encapsulate the mindset of many, whether "experts" or not, in the face of the housing bubble's implosion.

For those who choose not to wade through the excerpts, here is a summary of Ryan Jessup's assertions over the years:

(1.) Employment is strong
(2.) Population growth is strong
(3.) Home prices will not crash
(4.) It's all about affording the monthly payment
(5.) State government is strong
(6.) The sky is not falling
(7.) This will not be like the .com implosion
(8.) There are a lot of buyers out there (especially in my neighborhood)
(9.) My neighborhood is special/great/different [see green highlights below]
(10.) The economy is strong
(11.) Those who did not buy "missed the boat"
(12.) Real estate is not the stock market
(13.) Real estate is not wildly unaffordable
(14.) People have made millions on real estate
(15.) Construction employment is still going strong
(16.) My industry sources say things are good
(17.) This is nothing like the 1990s (as in not as bad).
(18.) The bottom is near
(19.) Good areas (i.e. where I live) are doing fine
(20.) The worst is behind us
(21.) I bought in 200x, I will be fine
(22.) Subprime will have little impact
(23.) The Bay Area will save us...

Now on to the excerpts. Let's start out with Ryan Jessup's take on the Sacramento Bee's ill-conceived 'No Panic' piece, which was published just as home prices were going negative (yoy).

rjessup2mouse at 7:28 AM PST Tuesday, June 20, 2006 wrote:

To a lot of negative folks - the market will be ok

There are people who write comments in these sections that would LOVE to see housing fall down. So you come up with your doomsday scenarios and facts to support your own theories. Sorry - this article is one of the better ones around. Solid job and population growth in Sacramento will keep from a market crash. Sorry for all you "experts" out there who need to bash the bee and think the market is 53% overvalued. If prices drop 53% here I will buy 20 of them..... I do believe prices will drop a little more and then basically become stagnation for a long time. People who own should not expect appreciation for 5 years at least. Homeowners - just ride out the current downtrend by staying in your house. Homebuyers - maybe wait a couple of months. Or find a homeowner who is panicking and get a bargain.

According to DataQuick, the total home price decline exceeded 53% back in December. Funny, I don't remember any recent reports of software engineers buying 20 homes at a time. Also note Jessup's advice for homeowners to ride out the downturn.

rjessup2mouse at 9:24 AM PST Thursday, June 22, 2006 wrote:

...I also agree there seems to be alot of negativity. Those generally come from people with a vested interest in seeing the market fall. Everyone tried to talk me out of buying in 2002 - saying that it was better to rent and the sky will fall. All I can say is I know a TON of friends that sure hate renting and I am sure glad I didn't listen to the naysayers. It really all comes down to the monthly payment and can you afford it...If you are in the house for the long haul - you will be fine if you lock in a good rate and price isn't as important...

rjessup2mouse at 2:45 PM PST Wednesday, June 28, 2006 wrote:

Prices will fall some but they won't crash
But I am suprised that there is a 42% chance that they won't decline. Prices will decline some but won't crash as incomes need to catch up. The State of California is Sacramento's main employer and the state is in hiring mode and doing well. There seems to be quite a few positions open.

rjessup2mouse at 9:13 AM PST Thursday, June 29, 2006 wrote:

...Prices will fall a little and then stagnate for a long while. There seems to be a vicious negative tone to the people who have an interest in the market and sky falling. I think you will see a pretty large difference in the .com drop and a housing drop. Wether you have money or not - there are people (alot) that have $ to buy houses and the region is not short of buyers . Plus the economy here is strong. People are simply waiting to see if they can get a better deal by holding off some. This combined with homeowners panicking to get the the best price now before any drop - that is why you see so many homes on the market. Prices have gotten high but they won't fall overnight (like stocks) and won't change much on even a yearly basis. I think the largest correction might happen in the next 3 months. Like I have said before - buyers - wait a little to get a better deal - homeowners - don't panic and remember why you bought your house (to live in) and ride out the real estate game in sac.

rjessup2mouse at 7:57 AM PST Wednesday, July 12, 2006 wrote:

I agree prices are falling - I never said anything otherwise. I just don't believe the extreme view of the market falling apart. Extreme views rarely happen and are more based on theories and in cases such as this thread - hopes of someone who has a vested interest. Alot of people want to focus on the negative and ignore positive. There are too many things in Sacramento's favor for housing to fall apart. I totally agree a price correction is currently happening. I think a 8-10% correction is in order, then basically very little or no appreciation for roughly 5 years.

rjessup2mouse at 1:25 PM PST Tuesday, July 18, 2006 wrote:

markets are dictated by emotion coupled with supply and demand.I think there will be some more slight drops followed by some large stagnation. Can't wait to see all "the sky is falling" comments in this thread shortly.

rjessup2mouse at 10:10 PM PST Wednesday, August 2, 2006 wrote:

no the sky is not falling but there are going to be bouts of depreciation and people that have a difficult time. Sacramento will be ok. People who are looking for massive depreceation are in for a very slow letdown...

rjessup2mouse at 5:01 PM PST Thursday, August 3, 2006 wrote:

jobs are very healthy and growing in sacramento right now. Be thankful as that does have the biggest impact and is a massive cushion against the sky is falling folks...

rjessup2mouse at 8:24 PM PST Wednesday, August 16, 2006 wrote:

people who are waiting for a crash are in for a slow dissappointment. Prices will probably fall a little more and then hold steady for awhile. The regional economy is too strong for a crash. In fact I have seen alot of Pending Sales in my area (East Sac) because some folks are swooping in to pick up $10-20k price drops...

rjessup2mouse at 7:34 AM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

NoNewArena sounds like a reasonable voice

rjessup2mouse at 9:15 AM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

The people who want housing prices to crash are people who have an agenda. So they try and add fuel to the fire and get joyful of a families demise, just be glad you are not them. There is alot of jealousy over missing the boat and not making $ while others made a lot of money. yeah - prices may fall a little - it isn't going to crash - and the local economy is strong - and mortgage rates are falling. There are alot of buffers. I am already seeing some Pending sales in my neighborhood finally. Buyers wanted to see 10k -20k price drops. People seem to forget there are alot of buyers. And simple math - owning your own home over the long run saves $$. It seems as if its a big game/stock market right now. When prices do a hit a bottom - I bet they spring back up pretty good as people pull inventory out because their houses are making money again and buyers pent up demand comes in pretty quickly.

rjessup2mouse at 12:59 PM PST Thursday, August 17, 2006 wrote:

Be funny when the price bottom hits to see how fast the mentality turns again. Sacramento housing will not fall 25% - thats too steep a decline with so many buyers out there.

rjessup2mouse at 9:05 AM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

No the market will not tank - sorry for people who want it too its simple math. what you would be paying for rent principle tax write off = Sacramento is not as overpriced as you would think. sorry andersb - the local economy does matter and the housing market is NOT the stock market. They are both assets but they ACT VERY DIFFERENT. People need to realize that the underlying factors that make them different but I will let you figure that out yourself. I am blown away by the hositlity of people on these postings with their number twisting to try and persuade that the housing market is going to fall 50%. Yes - the market is dropping right now and may drop a little more. But I bet it won't even drop 10% more. But there are alot more factors than simple hope it tanks so you can make a buck by getting a cheaper house. Seems some areas are already starting to rebound (midtown, east sac and med center area)...There are A LOT of buyers out there.

rjessup2mouse at 11:48 AM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

...There are too many good things about Sacramento for the market to tfall alot. People have been saying the Bay Area is totally unafforadable and overpriced for about 25 years. that doesn't mean that it was going to drop. Just because some people don't have money - doesn't mean it isn't out there. Don't get me wrong - I probably will not buy in the next 2-3 months or so to see what happens. The market is not good- except maybe closer to downtown - that seems to be showing some suprising strength the last couple of months as prices dropped some and inventory is lower.

rjessup2mouse at 12:43 PM PST Friday, August 18, 2006 wrote:

...People have made MILLIONS on real estate. I don't believe i know ANY wealthy renters but I know a TON of wealthy homeowners...

rjessup2mouse at 8:38 AM PST Thursday, August 31, 2006 wrote:

...Currently I don't believe prices are really that much higher than they should be. I am sure alot of people would disagree with that and probably about 90% of folks on this forum(most people on this forum have a vested interest in wanting prices to come down)...I believe housing will fall maybe a little more and then hold steady for a long time. Just my personal opinion but my track record for being correct has made a lot of $ for people.

rjessup2mouse at 8:46 AM PST Thursday, August 31, 2006 wrote:

I see you are a doomsdayer. Yes - even though the state is adding many jobs and employment is very strong in sacramento its going to all fall apart because....housing employment is down? ummm hate to tell you that construction employment is doing REALLY well right now. All of my construction sources say there is more work then they have folks right now. And comparing the 90's bust to today is comparing apples and oranges. But these housing forums are full of it. Some people on these forums need to get up in the morning and drink a little reality.

rjessup2mouse at 9:25 AM PST Wednesday, September 20, 2006 wrote:

Home prices are close to bottom...Some really good deals are out there. Good areas seem to be closer to downtown...

rjessup2mouse at 12:07 PM PST Sunday, September 24, 2006 wrote:

Thinking a 40% decline huh? your in for a big let down. And heck - that 40% you said was modest. why not bottom at 75%?? you should be able to pick up a 2000 sq foot for around $150k soon right? if you wait long enought maybe at $125k? Some people are absolutely nuts - how do you possibly think it could decline by that? how?

rjessup2mouse at 7:32 AM PST Sunday, October 1, 2006 wrote:

East Sac, Med Center, Midtown and Land Park have been selling alot lately. Closer to downtown seems to have gotten hot(relativly) in the last month and a half actually.

rjessup2mouse at 11:00 AM PST Wednesday, October 18, 2006 wrote:

...I disagree that prices will drop much further though...I think prices by far have gone through the worst of it now.

rjessup2mouse at 7:23 AM PST Thursday, October 19, 2006 wrote:

...and no - I bought in 2002 - I am fine...

rjessup2mouse at 8:57 AM PST Saturday, December 16, 2006 wrote:

...[Y]ou paint a pretty bleak picture of downtown. I think there are plenty of beautiful areas in downtown, east sac , med center and such.

rjessup2mouse at 7:41 AM PST Friday, December 22, 2006 wrote:

Have to completely disagree with Mr.Lyon's assessment on 10% decline for sacramento. Most "experts" predict 3.5%. His is by far the biggesst drop prediction I have read about. This last year seems to have come in about 8.2%. I thought it would have been 10% this last year so it was almost 2% better than i even expected. So is Mr. Lyon saying that this year should be worse than last? Why is he the only one saying this?

rjessup2mouse at 10:25 AM PST Friday, December 22, 2006 wrote:

I have no number crunching but I would have to say that I predicted a 10% drop for the year last year (I was off by 2% )and I will predict a 3-4% drop this year. But I am no expert - I just listen to people who are in the industry and what they see happening.

rjessup2mouse at 9:07 AM PST Sunday, December 31, 2006 wrote:

...Smart money right now is saying that sac is going to do 0 to -3% for the year....

rjessup2mouse at 1:08 PM PST Friday, January 5, 2007 wrote:

people are so negative that have an agenda or a vested interest. The bee has covered stories that make housing look bad and they cover stories that make housing look good. Are you some of the same folks that said it would be down 20% this last year? I remember those predictions a year ago. Looks like Sac was down 8.2%. Some areas in Sac were worse than that and some areas less. But just hoping/waiting for the bottom to fall out is not going to make it happen. California Real Estate is and always will be a good investment long term. The worst is over. That doesn't mean it is bottom but I believe by far the worst is behind.

rjessup2mouse at 10:01 AM PST Wednesday, January 17, 2007 wrote:

Oak Park is changing and I have seen investor interest in it. Next to it - The med center area - is a really good place to have a home and rather safe. Remember - not all of Oak Park is considered "bad".

rjessup2mouse at 8:22 AM PST Wednesday, March 14, 2007 wrote:

...I am not to worried about the subprime headlines of right now. It will have some impact I am sure but not much. Just like everyone was saying the housing market would already be down 35%...

rjessup2mouse at 8:41 PM PST Wednesday, April 4, 2007 wrote:

I think Med center area is already pretty nice.

rjessup2mouse at 1:02 PM PST Thursday, April 5, 2007 wrote:

kindof what I have been saying - Dowtown and Midtown are solid
the suburbs and sub divisions have taken a large hit while closer to downtown has been fairly steady. The houses closer to downtown are bouncing back quicker because people are realizing that you can't make these homes anymore and therefore have good price stability. There will only be less - never more of these homes.

rjessup2mouse at 8:20 AM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

funny to see the gloomers again :-) - always makes me chuckle to see the 40% drop again predicted/wanted by home buyers. I am sorry for the doom and gloomers - your not going to get anywhere near that price drop. Not even close. Housing I think is going to take a small hit again - with negative publicity being the bigger culprit than what will actually shake out with the subprime situation. People tend to forget that we are tied to the bay area home prices and that the local job market is plenty strong. I am no real estate agent or optimist - just a realist. For the past few years my predictions have been pretty close - and i would predict possibly another 2-4% drop...

rjessup2mouse at 12:53 PM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

...my finances are fine are yours? do you own a house or have you ever? I didn't think so. WIll you? and do the math - its not that tricky - fairly simple actually. As far as predictions - I am sorry to say that it has been fairly accurate. I do appreciate how emotional you are over it - I believe you probably one of the "its going to drop by about 30%" correct? Makes me laugh.

rjessup2mouse at 12:59 PM PST Friday, April 13, 2007 wrote:

isn't it funny? I have been seeing these posts for 2 years now - the predictions by most of the gloomers have been that the market would have dropped 25% as of now. It has not. I think I said 7 - 15% from the start.

I find the final two comments, made in January 2008, particularly interesting given that Jessup purportedly stopped paying his Oak Park mortgage in early 2008.

rjessup2mouse at 11:33 AM PST Friday, January 18, 2008 wrote:

a little advice - the really good deals
If you want a bargain and something thats gonna retain its value. Buy where a bunch of houses are NOT for sale and try and scoop up a bank repo. Some downtown and surrounding areas have it- just gotta find the right pockets of places.

0 out of 3 people found this comment helpful.

rjessup2mouse at 1:46 PM PST Saturday, January 19, 2008 wrote:

time to buy or at least look pretty hard
you folks that are sitting should be looking right now.

1 out of 5 people found this comment helpful.

Bailouts and the Bubble Bloggers

2009-03-05T23:17:00.000-08:00

From the Weekly Standard:

There seems to be real bitterness about the idea of forcing people to subsidize the imprudent housing choices of their neighbors. That bitterness is on display on other websites, such as StopTheHousingBailout.com, which urges readers not to get stuck "paying for other people's greed & ignorance" and encourages them to lobby their congressmen.

Much of the opposition to the bailout, however, comes from people who are only tangentially interested in the politics of the matter. Beginning in 2005, hundreds of websites and blogs sprouted up warning about the housing bubble. At the time, these people were often viewed as doomsayers or cranks. Thoroughly vindicated, many of their sites are now de facto rallying points against Obama's plan, purely on grounds of economic prudence.

The blog FlippersInTrouble, for instance, gives exhaustive data on the losses being racked up by speculators in Sacramento, which won't help build sympathy for the beneficiaries of the bailout. HousingDoom.com, a site which began by looking at economic aspects of the bubble in 2006, is now saying, "What the market needs is more foreclosures." There is no obvious political pattern to the bubble bloggers. Some are freemarketeers. Others, such as those who run HousingPanic.com, are Democrats who see the bubble as one more failure of the Bush administration. Yet nearly all of the bubble sites, left, right, and center, are now lined up against the bailout.