Samson Wang

US might become illiquid and insolvent

2011-08-01T19:42:00.001-07:00

The pass of US pulbic debt ceiling increase only serves as a temporary pain killer, which cannot reverse the trend that US is becoming illiquid and insolvent. Personally, I believe 30% of the public debt should be the ceiling, if the tax rate is 30%, which means the government spends under how much they can earn. Look at the lavish money burners like Japan and US. Shocking! I wonder why they spend so much? Where is the money going?



      It is said the debt ratio of some provinces in China also reaches 70%, which is not pretty. We should take more caution to that.

     What we can take away is US economy will not get out of the woods in the foreseeable future. The government must deleverage and the gold price will keep rising.

Gold Price, Run Run!!

2011-07-25T09:37:00.000-07:00

My cements:
It looks like gold price surge is a not short-term trend even if it is very hard to forecast how long and how far this round of hike will go. Put all the factors together, which include American economy slump and debt celing, European PIGS syndrome, we can tell gold can serve one of the best hedging tools. In addition to that, the Chinese government will have to buy more gold, perhaps in a significant amount, and the emerging countries have started the precious metal and jewelry buying spree. All those factors can hold up the price of gold until all the uncertainties clear away.

One suggestion to the politicans: please get real and make things work, right away, since the things are not that complex as they look like.

Gold Surges to Record on Haven Demand

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/gold-surges-to-record-as-u-s-debt-impasse-threatens-default-aaa-rating.html

By Pham-Duy Nguyen and Nicholas Larkin -

Gold futures climbed to a record $1,624.30 an ounce as U.S. lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on raising the federal debt limit, boosting demand for the metal as a haven investment.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner plans to press ahead with a two-step debt-limit extension that President Barack Obama has threatened to veto, fueling concern the nation is lurching toward a default as early as Aug. 2. Greece’s credit rating was cut three notches by Moody’s Investors Service. Europe’s debt woes drove gold to all-time highs in euros and pounds last week.
“Gold is feeding off the uncertainty of the debt negotiations,” Matthew Zeman, a strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Gold is in a ‘can’t lose’ situation with the debt negotiations because regardless of the outcome, the dollar is going to suffer.”
Gold futures for August delivery rose $14.20, or 0.9 percent, to $1,615.70 at 10:40 a.m. on the Comex in New York. The previous record was on July 19.
Republicans and Democrats prepared competing plans for raising the U.S. debt ceiling. Mohamed A. El-Erian, whose Pacific Investment Management Co. runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the U.S. may lose its AAA debt rating even if lawmakers avoid a default.
Before today, gold rose 13 percent this year, heading for the 11th straight annual gain. Investors boosted holdings in exchange-traded products backed by the metal to a record 2,122.6 metric tons on July 20.
Silver futures for September delivery rose 40.3 cents, or 1 percent, to $40.525 an ounce on the Comex.
Palladium futures for September delivery fell $1, or 0.1 percent, to $805.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Platinum futures for October delivery dropped 60 cents to $1,797.80 an ounce.
To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net; Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net.

Myhrvold: Tech Giants Discover Value of Patents

2011-07-20T04:18:00.000-07:00

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/patents-are-very-valuable-tech-giants-discover-nathan-myhrvold.html

Patents rarely make headlines, but they did this month when Nortel Networks Corp., the defunct Canadian telecommunications giant, auctioned off its patent portfolio and drew an astonishing winning bid of $4.5 billion from a group of companies that includes both Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
The sale marks a watershed in the maturity of intellectual property markets and a dramatic shift in strategy for technology companies. Suddenly these companies are acknowledging that patents are a strategic asset worth billions.
Here’s an inside look at what happened -- and what’s at stake -- and remember, as you read this, that my company buys and licenses high-tech patents.
Most big tech companies inhabit winner-take-most markets, in which any company that gets out in front can develop an enormous lead. This is how Microsoft came to dominate in software, Intel Corp. in processors, Google Inc. (GOOG) in web search, Oracle Corp. in databases, Amazon.com Inc. in web retail, and so on.
As a result, the tech world has seen a series of mad scrambles by companies wanting to be king of the hill. In the late 1980s, the battle was for dominance of spreadsheet and word-processing software. In the late 1990s, it was about e- commerce on the emerging Internet. The latest whatever-it-takes struggle has been over social networks, with enough drama to script a Hollywood movie.
In each case, the recipe for success was to bring to market, at a furious pace, products that incorporate new features. Along the way, inconvenient intellectual property rights were ignored.

Copyrights Are Easy

Yes, copyright was almost religiously enforced. Copyrights are trivial to obtain (just type the “c” in a circle symbol), and software companies see them as essential to restraining piracy, which hurts revenue. Patents are a different story, however. It takes time for engineers to apply for patents and even more time if they diligently respect other people’s patents. So technology companies typically did neither.
In fact, many tech companies forbid their engineers from checking whether their products incorporate others’ patents. The practice amounts to an intellectual property version of “don’t ask, don’t tell.”
As tech giants commercialized ideas that had been pioneered by small companies and merged once-separate technologies into new products, they infringed other people’s patents. Personal computers took over publishing, photo processing, cash handling and a million other functions once performed by other companies’ patented products. Smart phones likewise displaced more specialized devices, such as GPS units and bar-code readers. When the TV commercial says, “There’s an app for that,” the “that” part is sometimes covered by patents the app creator doesn’t own.

Patent Vulnerability

Once tech giants got to the top, they realized that their cavalier treatment of patents had left them vulnerable. If you already control 90 percent of the market, your own patent portfolio does little for you. But outside patent owners sometimes show up and ask to be paid. Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that Microsoft, the company I used to work for, must pay almost $300 million to a Toronto-based company called I4i LP, which claimed its patented technology was used in Microsoft Word. All tech companies face this sort of claim, and they’re not happy about it.
The biggest companies, which have always touted their brilliant innovations to justify the billions of dollars in stock options they pay their executives, have been in the odd position of attacking the patent system and publicly deprecating the innovations of others. Patents attempt to create a level playing field, but the last thing an 800-pound gorilla of a company wants is a fair fight. After succeeding in part by stealing other people’s inventions, they decry any inventors who have the temerity to ask for a share of the returns.
In Congress, lobbyists for every major semiconductor, software and Internet-services company worked for seven years to undermine the much-needed patent reform bill and to delay its passage. (The House and Senate each recently passed a version of the bill; they are now working to reconcile the two measures.)
Yet even as that was going on, a growing number of tech companies started to discover that patents might be useful after all. In 2009, Micron Technology, a major computer chipmaker, transferred about 4,500 of its patents to a renowned patent litigator in the hope that he could make some money on them. And in the past two years, Microsoft has sued companies that were using the Linux computer operating system and Android, Google’s mobile-phone platform, to collect on what it viewed as its share of the patent liability that is hidden in a lot of “free” software.

Attack by Apple

It isn’t just about the money; these are also strategic moves. Apple, flush with the iPhone’s success but understandably worried that it might wind up becoming the R&D outfit that prototyped ideas that made others rich, has recently sued HTC Corp., Samsung and others. Just last week, the company won a preliminary ruling from the International Trade Commission, which if upheld will prevent HTC from importing smart phones into the U.S., essentially wiping out its business here.
Microsoft and Apple could have sued Google; most of the disputed features are in Android code. Instead, they elected to sue Google’s customers as a way to avoid an all-out war with the search giant -- reminiscent of how, in the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union used to battle by proxy in places such as Vietnam. Oracle, buoyed by patents it got in its acquisition of Sun Microsystems, was less circumspect; it sued Google directly.
These tussles set the stage for Nortel to put on the block more than 6,000 patents and patent applications, which cover many features of current and future mobile phones, in an auction orchestrated by Lazard Ltd. Analysts at my company and elsewhere in the industry found that the patents were good, but what made them extraordinary wasn’t their quality -- it was simply that they were on the market and hadn’t been widely licensed. Just six months ago, the expected selling price had been $200 million to $400 million -- a lot of money, but still a pittance compared with the prize of being the biggest winner in the smart-phone business.

Google Bids

Google then made its move, tendering a public stalking- horse offer of $900 million that sent shock waves through the industry. Even stranger, its offer allowed Lazard to shop the deal for several months.
Many people were surprised that Google stepped forward; it has consistently been one of the most outspoken critics of the patent system, presumably because it faces enormous potential patent liability. Even its basic business model of advertising- supported search was first invented and patented by a company called GoTo.com, which sued Google for infringement in 2002. Google settled the lawsuit shortly before its initial public offering in 2004.
The amount of Google’s offer was unexpected, but the high price made perfect sense. Google has very few of its own patents; with Nortel’s portfolio, it could change the balance of power in the smart-phone industry. It could threaten to countersue any company that attacked Android, or it could even take a page from Apple’s book and go on the attack. Such potent ammunition in the battle for smart-phone supremacy could be worth far more than $900 million.
A third shocker was how Google structured its public bid. Neither I nor anybody I have spoken with can explain what Google was thinking. Had it simply waited for the auction, it easily could have won. Other bidders had much lower expectations and wouldn’t have had the time to get board approval for bids large enough to stay in the game.

Schemes and Counterschemes

Instead, the stalking-horse offer set in motion unprecedented scheming and counterscheming among strange bedfellows. Companies that normally fight one another, such as game-console rivals Microsoft and Sony and smart-phone rivals Apple and Research in Motion Ltd., pondered whether they hated the prospect of a patent-powerful Google even more. Investment companies like mine, which had been interested in Nortel’s portfolio for its potential financial return, decided the bidding was too rich for our blood, and dropped out. As the auction neared, rumors flew about who was teaming up with whom and how high the bids would soar.
Then, as the auction began, Google unveiled one more surprise. Its bids were numbers like $1,902,160,540. That’s a billion times Brun’s constant, which appears in the mathematics of prime numbers. And its successive bids were other mathematical constants, including one for pi billion dollars ($3,141,592,653).
Math geekiness, it turns out, doesn’t guarantee victory. A consortium of six other companies -- Microsoft, Apple, RIM, Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB and EMC Corp/Massachusetts -- won with an astounding $4.5 billion bid.

Google’s Strategy

The result effectively retains the status quo. Google still has no strategic weapon to compensate for the patent liability inherent in Android, so the lawsuits will continue. Some in the industry think Google acted brilliantly; the company is no worse off than it was before, and it cost its competitors $4.5 billion. Others argue that Google was somehow snookered by Lazard into a disastrous strategy that has left its competitors better armed for the fight -- and more than a little angry. You don’t pay $4.5 billion for assets and then let them sit on the shelf.
More importantly, this sale validates the notion that patents will be a fundamental tool in the tech industry. They had been moving toward that position for years, but the magnitude of Nortel’s sale shows that they have arrived. Patents virtually define the pharmaceutical and biotech markets, and in the future they could play the same role for tech.
What’s next? The history of mergers and acquisitions suggests one possibility. Once upon a time in the clubby atmosphere of corporate America, hostile takeovers were rare; gentlemen just didn’t do such things. Then, in the 1960s, the hostile takeovers came to be accepted as a legitimate business tool. Similarly, the strategic use of patents now appears to be accepted in the technology industry. If that’s true, then Nortel is just the beginning.
(Nathan Myhrvold, the former chief strategist and chief technology officer at Microsoft and the founder of Intellectual Ventures, is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
For more Bloomberg View columns.
To contact the author of this column: Nathan Myhrvold at Nathan.Myhrvold@intven.com.
To contact the editor responsible for this column: Mary Duenwald mduenwald@bloomberg.net

Rare Earth Metals Not So Rare but Valuable

2010-12-04T03:56:00.000-08:00

http://seekingalpha.com/article/103972-rare-earth-metals-not-so-rare-but-valuable

The rare earth metals are, in fact, not that rare.

The most commonly occurring rare earth metals - cerium, lanthanum, neodymium and yttrium - are actually more common in the Earth's crust than lead. And even silver.

While cerium, the most abundant rare earth metal, is more prevalent (60 parts per million (ppm)) than copper, even lutetium (0.5 ppm) and thulium (0.5 ppm), the least abundant, are to be found in the Earth's crust in greater quantities than antimony, bismuth, cadmium and thallium. (The outlier is promethium, which, it appears, is not to be found in the Earth's crust, and which is only used in compound form, of which, to date, some30 have been prepared.)

Abundance of Elements In The Earth's Crust

Note: Abundance (atom fraction) of the chemical elements in Earth's upper continental crust as a function of atomic number.

Many of the elements are classified into (partially overlapping) categories: (1) rock-forming elements (major elements in green field and minor elements in light green field); (2) rare earth elements (lanthanides, La-Lu, and Y; labeled in blue); (3) major industrial metals (global production > ~3x107 kg/year; labeled in bold); (4) precious metals (italic); and (5) the nine rarest "metals" - the six platinum group elements plus Au, Re, and Te (a metalloid).

Source: USGS

So, why are they called the "rare earth" metals? Probably from the uncommon oxide-type minerals, or earths, from which they were originally extracted. The corollary to their abundance is, however, the fact that, to date, their "discovered minable concentrations are less common than for most other ores."

What Are The Rare Earth Metals?

The rare earth metals (aka, REM, rare earth elements [REE] or, sometimes, just rare earths) are a group of 15 chemically similar elements (grouped separately in the periodic table) known as lanthanides. Commercially, the rare earth grouping usually also includes scandium and yttrium, both of which are actually elements above lanthanum in the periodic table.

In more physical terms, these metals range in color from shiny silver to iron gray. As the USGS describes them, they "are typically soft, malleable, ductile and usually reactive, especially at elevated temperatures or when finely divided." At the lower end, cerium has a melting point of 798° C and, at the upper, lutetium has a melting point of 1,663° C.

It will come as no surprise that the unique properties (catalytic, chemical, electrical, metallurgical, nuclear, magnetic and optical) of the REM, and, in particular, both their specificity and versatility, have led to their being used for a wide variety of purposes.

From relative obscurity, they are now important economically, environmentally and technologically.

What Are They Used for?

The range of applications in which they are used is extraordinarily wide, from the everyday (automotive catalysts and petroleum cracking catalysts, flints for lighters, pigments for glass and ceramics and compounds for polishing glass) to the highly specialized (miniature nuclear batteries, lasers repeaters, superconductors and miniature magnets).

The Rare Earths And Some Of Their End Uses

*Name*	*Symbol*	*Some End Uses*
Cerium	Ce	Catalysts, Ceramics, Glasses, Misch Metal*, Phosphors and Polishing Powders
Dysprosium^‡	Dy	Ceramics, Phosphors and Nuclear Applications
Erbium^‡	Er	Ceramics, Glass Dyes, Optical Fibers, Lasers and Nuclear Applications
Europium^‡	Eu	Phosphors
Gadolinium^‡	Gd	Ceramics, Glasses, Optical and Magnetic Detection and Medical Image Visualization
Holmium^‡	Ho	Ceramics, Lasers and Nuclear Applications
Lanthanum	La	Automotive Catalysts, Ceramics, Glasses, Phosphors and Pigments
Lutetium^‡	Lu	Single Crystal Scintillators
Neodymium	Nd	Catalysts, IR Filters, Lasers, Permanent Magnets and Pigments
Praseodymium	Pr	Ceramics, Glasses and Pigments
Promethium	Pm	Phosphors and Miniature Nuclear Batteries and Measuring Devices
Samarium	Sm	Microwave Filters, Nuclear Applications and Permanent Magnets
Scandium	Sc	Aerospace, Baseball Bats, Nuclear Applications, Lighting and Semiconductors
Terbium^‡	Tb	Phosphors
Thulium^‡	Tm	Electron Beam Tubes and Medical Image Visualization
Ytterbium^‡	Yb	Chemical Industry and Metallurgy
Yttrium^‡	Y	Capacitors, Phosphors (CRT and Lamp), Radars and Superconductors

Groups: yttrium and lanthanide (Scandium falls into neither category)

^‡ Heavy REM

* Misch Metal is an alloy of rare earth metals used not only for lighter flints, but also, probably more importantly, in purifying steel by removing oxygen and sulfur.

Separately, or as compounds, various rare earth metals are used also in the production of superalloys.

REM are now especially important, and used extensively, in the defense industry. Some of their specific defense applications include: anti-missile defense, aircraft parts, communications systems, electronic countermeasures, jet engines, rockets, underwater mine detection, missile guidance systems and space-based satellite power.

USGS figures for 2006 indicate that the three main uses of REM in the U.S. were: automotive catalytic converters (25%), petroleum refining catalysts (22%) and metallurgical additives and alloys (20%).

Source: USGS

In many of these applications, the REM are used in the form of low-cost compounds. As oxides, they are used extensively in the ceramics and glass industries and, in addition, for various metallurgical uses. Indeed, it has been estimated that only 25% of mined REM-bearing materials are actually processed to extract individual metals.

The REM most commonly used as separated metals are: cerium, europium, gadolinium, neodymium, samarium and terbium.

Rare Earth Metals Supply

From having been a major producer (and consumer) of REM (from the Mountain Pass mine in the Mojave Desert, Calif.) until the mid-80s, the U.S. now no longer mines any REM. The world's major producer is China (particularly from its Bayan Obo mining operation in Inner Mongolia), with considerably lesser amounts coming from Brazil, India and Russia. Since 2000, domestic REM consumption in China (which now accounts for over half of the country's overall REM products) has exceeded that of the U.S.

Global Rare Earth Metal Oxide Production - 1950-2006 (‘000s Tonnes)

Source: Russian Journal of Non-Ferrous Metals (from USGS)

While REM deposits in China and the U.S. are primarily to be found in the mineral bastnäsite (80-90% of all raw materials produced), elsewhere - and in particular in Australia, Brazil, India, Malaysia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Thailand - they are usually to be found in the mineral monazite. (There are also monazite resources both in China and the U.S.) Mining monazite can, however, be a little tricky, as the ore tends to contain the radioactive elements thorium (see Cobalt: More Than Just Blue) and radium.

In addition, there are also REM-containing ion-absorption ores in the south of China. Importantly, these last contain around 80% of the world's known resources of the less-widespread heavy, yttrium group, metals.

World Mine Production (Tonnes)

*Country*	*2006*	*2007*
China	119,000	120,000
India	2,700	2,700
Brazil	730	730
Malaysia	200	200
Thailand	-	-
Australia	-	-
U.S.	-	-
Other Countries	NA	NA
*Total (rounded)*	*123,000*	*124,000*

Source: USGS

Although it mines no REM of its own, in 2007, the U.S. remained a major importer, exporter and consumer. From 2003-2006, China accounted for some 94% of its REM-related imports.

While not yet actually recommencing mining operations (for environmental, regulatory and market reasons), toward the end of 2007, Molycorp Inc. (wholly-owned by Chevron) resumed operating its rare earth separation plant at Mountain Pass. The company continues to sell bastnäsite concentrates and REM intermediaries, together with refined products, from its existing mine stocks. Permits to recommence mining are still pending.

Rare Earth Metals Demand

Domestic demand in the U.S., as well as the demand for REM globally, remained strong in 2007, and have continued so in 2008. This has been true both for mixed rare earth compounds and the metals and their alloys. According to the USGS: "The trend is for a continued increase in the use of rare earths in many applications, especially automotive catalytic converters, permanent magnets, and rechargeable batteries."

Forecast Growth Of Rare Earth Metals Usage

*Element*	*Application*	*Consumption* *(Tonnes p.a. of REO)*		*Growth Rate* *(% p.a)*
		*2006*	*2012*
Ce, La, Nd, Pr	Battery Alloy	17,000	43,000	17
Dy, Nd, Pr, Sm, Tb	Magnets	20,500	42,000	13
Eu, Tb, Y	Phosphors	8,500	14,000	9
	Ceramics	5,500	9,000	9
	Others	8,000	13,000	8
Ce, Nd, La	Catalysts	21,500	32,000	7
Ce, La, Pr	Polishing Powder	14,000	21,000	7
Ce, Er, Gd, La, Nd, Yb	Glass Additives	13,000	14,000	1
	Total	108,000	188,000	10

REO = rare earth oxide

Source: Roskill HK Rare Earth Conference, November 2007

The prices of most REM rose in 2007, and with the exception of neodymium and praseodymium (both metal and oxides) and terbium (oxide), the prices of most REM (metals and oxides) have either remained the same, or continued to rise in 2008.

	Price - US$/Kg
*Name*	*Oxide*		*Metal*
	End-2007	End-Oct 2008	End-2007	End-Oct 2008
Cerium	3.60	3.80	7.10	10.50
Dysprosium	94.00	118.00	125.00	153.00
Erbium	35.00	35.00	N/A	N/A
Europium	368.00	525.00	560.00	700.00
Gadolinium	N/A	N/A	25.00	28.00
Lanthanum	4.60	8.00	6.00	13.00
Lutetium	550.00	550.00	N/A	N/A
Neodymium	30.00	20.00	40.00	29.00
Praseodymium	28.00	20.00	37.00	29.00
Samarium	4.40	4.40	14.00	26.00
Terbium	633.00	621.00	750.00	793.00
Ytterbium	55.00	55.00	N/A	N/A
Yttrium	12.00	12.00	29.00	42.00
Misch Metal (48% Ce)			6.00	8.00
Misch Metal (25% La)			12.00	14.00

Source: Tianjiao International

With such strong domestic demand for REM in China, there are now controls on production and exports (tariffs and quotas). And in some places, because of environmental concerns, among other things, there are both mining restrictions and mining quotas.

According to Roskill's 2007 report on the economics of rare earths and yttrium, this has "brought fundamental change to the global industry, taking it from oversupply to demand shortages."

Indeed, in its report, Roskill envisaged that, with demand growth for rare earths forecast at 8-11% per annum, and should China's strict control persist, there will be a significant need for "new non-Chinese capacity in the next 3 to 4 years."

2007 - Supply/Demand Forecast

Source: Roskill

Opportunities In Rare Earths

As with the minor metals, there are no exchanges on which REM are traded. Both the physical metals and their different oxides can, however, be bought from various specialist rare earth companies.

It seems reasonable to assume that there will always be demand for rare earths metals. While there are substitutes, these are usually not as effective. Since no REM are currently mined in the U.S., and Molycorp is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Chevron, no direct investment in any significant U.S. mining operations for these metals is possible. Looking overseas, there are, however, some opportunities for exposure.

India, unfortunately, is out, as all three rare earth production companies are government-owned.

A recent news snippet about the Japanese chemical group Showa Denko(Bloomberg Ticker - SHWDF:US) was of particular interest on two counts. Not only did it state that the company had set up a joint venture to extract dysprosium in Vietnam, but also that it was doing so because it wanted to secure a "stable supply" of rare earth magnetic materials as, currently, it relies on China - where, indeed, it currently has two subsidiaries (Baotou and Ganzhou).

China

If, however, the world's largest REM producer is of interest, then, among the Chinese companies mining REM in Bayan Obo, is the quoted Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co Ltd (Baogang) (Bloomberg Ticker - 600111:CH).

Quoted companies mining REM elsewhere in China include: China Rare Earth Holdings Ltd (Bloomberg Ticker - CREQF:US), Aluminum Corporation of China (aka Chinalco) (Bloomberg Ticker - ACH:US), Neo Material Technologies (Bloomberg Ticker - NEM:CN).

Recently, however, the mines in Sichuan were shut down, and there are strict quotas in places in Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi, where there has been severe environmental damage.

Australia

In Australia, there are currently a number of rare earth mining projects at various stages of development.

According to an ASX announcement at the beginning of July this year, the "Demonstration Pilot Plant" at Alkane Resources' (Bloomberg Ticker - ALK:AU) Dubbo Zirconia project was set to go 24/7 in late July, and it stated that "(l)aboratory scale testing for recovery of the rare earth elements is scheduled to commence in July."

Arafura Resources (Bloomberg Ticker - AFAFF:US) expects the rare earths processing plant at its Nolans Project in the country's Northern Territory to be in production in 2011.

Based on November 2005 figures, the company compared its Nolans resource with some others around the world.

Source: Arafura Resources Limited

At its Mount Weld project in Western Australia, Lynas Corporation(Bloomberg Ticker - LYSCF:US) completed its first mining "campaign" in May. Based on figures updated in March this year, the company believes its resources at the project now amount to some 12.24 million tonnes at 9.7% rare earth oxide, which will produce some 1,124,000 tonnes of REO.

Canada

In addition to Neo Material Technologies out of Toronto, with its operation in China, there are three other Canadian companies involved, to a greater or lesser extent, in REM in Canada itself.

Avalon Ventures Ltd (Bloomberg Ticker - AVL:CN) has its Thor Lake Project near Yellowknife in Canada's Northwest Territories with, according to the company, "[e]xceptional enrichment in Neodymium & Heavy REE."

VMS Ventures (Bloomberg Ticker - VMS:CN), out of Vancouver, has its Eden Lake Carbonatite Complex in Manitoba, where REM were discovered in 2003.

Great Western Minerals Group (Bloomberg Ticker - GWG:CN), out of Saskatoon in Saskatchewan, has its Hoidas Lake Rare Earth Project which, in the words of the company, "...is North America's most advanced Rare Earth Element (REE) property in development..." and "...has the potential to supply at least 10% of North America's consumption of REE for many years."

Finally, Canada's Rare Element Resources (Bloomberg Ticker - RES:CN), has not only gold on its Bear Lodge, Wyo., property, but also, in its words, "significant high-grade rare-earth elements."

For those interested in looking "downstream," there are a number of REM producers internationally, especially in Japan. In the U.S., however, apart from Chevron's Molycorp, both France's chemical company Rhodia(Bloomberg Ticker - RHA:FP), and WR Grace's (Bloomberg Ticker - GRA:US) Grace Davison division are actively involved in processing rare earths.

Afterwords

First, it has been estimated that current global consumption of REM now accounts for around 70-75% of their total production. This leads one to believe that considerable quantities of mined REO remain, as yet to be processed.

Second, the mineral ore resources currently mined to produce REM contain different groups of metals, not just particular, individual, metals in isolation. So, instead of some of these metals being by-products of other metals, as, say, rhenium is of moly, and moly is of copper, they are essentially "co-products" - mine for one and the others come free.

The corollary to this, however, is that the economics of mining on such a "volume" basis could lead to it just not being viable to mine such ore resources for one or two REM alone, especially if the other metals contained in the REO do not "pay their way." In future, therefore, the composition of a mine's REO resources - as opposed just to the volume of ore it can produce - may well become critical to that mine's economic viability.

Third, even though rare earth metals are classified as critical minerals in the U.S. National Academies' "criticality matrix," the U.S. National Defense Stockpile at present contains none.

Resources

The National Academies

Roskill

Russian Journal of Non-Ferrous Metals

Tienjiao International

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

The Chinese Monopoly Monster Takes another Bite

2010-12-04T02:53:00.000-08:00

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/the-chinese-monopoly-monster-takes-another-bite/1135

An Investment Revelation as China's Metal Monopoly Grows

By Brian Hicks
Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

The Chinese Monopoly Monster Takes another Bite

Investment revelations can come at the strangest moments.

This one happened just a few weeks ago...

I was flying down to Miami for the weekend, to visit an old venture capitalist buddy of mine who'd been nagging me to come see his new motor-yacht like it was the newborn heir to his fortune.

I'd checked in late and had been given the window seat. As we neared departure time, however, and the seat next to me remained unoccupied, I started to get hopeful that I may have hit the air travel equivalent of the lottery: the empty row.

No such luck.

The guy materialized at the last minute before push-off, cutting me off from the freedom of the isle that had almost been in my grasp.

He was older, in his early-to-mid sixties; well past the threshold of morbid obesity and at least four martinis deep as he plopped himself down in the barely-sufficient business class seat.

I leaned up against the side of the fuselage, found a nice cozy corner on which to rest my head, and proceeded to play dead.

"You'd better watch yourself, closing your eyes in public like that."

My heart sank. Dear God, he was one of those... Maybe if I just kept pretending he wasn't there.

"Yeah, you heard me..." He mumbled on. "You keep your head in the sand and they'll take the clothes right off your back."

I opened my eyes slowly, gave them an overdramatized little rub, and responded: "I don't think they let thieves onto these flights, sir.

"If you think that, son, you've got your eyes glued shut," he said, filling the air between us with stale vermouth fumes.

I fought the urge to roll my eyes.

"Ten years from now," he said, massaging his temples. "They'll own everything,"

I figured I had at least half an hour of this to endure before time and the cocktails knocked him out...

But as he kept talking to me — against all odds — some of it actually started to seep into my brain. Gradually, I started to understand what he was trying to say.

I can't tell you his name (as it would have serious implications for him and his long list of clients), but this fat old drunk was actually a very successful commodities trader.

With over 40 years in the business, he'd been there to see the Hunt Brothers' play for a Silver monopoly back in the late 70s; the gold collapse of the early 80s; the copper run-up between the 80s and 2000s; the Uranium boom and bust; and a number of other major events that made and broke fortunes across five continents.

"I've never been this nervous," he said to me as we reached cruising altitude. "They've finally realized what kind of weight they can throw around and they're doing it. Who knows what's gonna be next. There's almost nothing left for them to hoard."

He was — as so many in the financial sectors are these days — talking about China. Specifically, he was talking about what they were doing to the global metals industry. It was no news to me, of course; but to see a seasoned, professional investor losing his marbles over it was a bit disconcerting...

Was I not nervous enough?

The answer is yes.

No investor that I know today — not my VC friend with the new $4.7 million boat, or anybody I work with, or any of the dozens of industry insiders I speak to on a daily basis — is nervous enough about the recent moves the Chinese government has been making in regards to some of the most important metals known to modern industry.

Or if they are, they're certainly not showing it.

Here's a quick synopsis of what the world's fastest growing economy gobbled up a majority of our most critical elements with hardly a peep from Western powers:

It began with rare earth elements and lithium in the early 90s. Essential in small quantities to almost all electronics, but required in large quantities in the production of high-capacity batteries — namely those that go into every single hybrid car on the road today — rare earth elements were destined to become one of the "new oils" in a post-fossil fuel world.

And the mining companies that produced these metals were to China what shrimp are to whales. By the time their decade-and-a-half long buy-up was done sometime in late 2009, the Chinese had grabbed up 97% of the world's known rare earth deposits.

Inevitably, as their monopoly finally started to reach its current level in the first years of the decade, prices for rare earths and lithium rose.

In just the past five years, neodymium (another rare earth used heavily in rechargeable batteries) has shot up nearly 400%. A drastic change... and it all has to do with the Chinese appetite.

Unfortunately, consumption rose right along with those prices, and the ultimate aim of this whole plan was gradually achieved right under our noses — Western dependence on what was increasingly a Chinese product, and the price control that came with it.

It's happened before of course, with the cheap plastic products that flood into our shores every day.

But this time, the focus of the monopoly isn't Pez dispensers or tennis shoes.

The focus is the raw materials we need to keep our TVs and computers working, our cars running, and — more and more every day — our precious electricity safely stored.

So now you understand what I mean by "not nervous enough"...

But here's the part that made me want to grab a couple drinks myself.

"Nevermind lithium... nevermind neodymium... nevermind aluminum," he said, his voice down to a whisper.

"They're onto something new now, and it makes everything that came before it looks like practice by comparison. Hell, this plane wouldn't ever get off the ground without the crap they're grabbing up now."

And this is when his point finally hit me.

You see since 2004, China's been the world's dominant steel producer. With the annual production capacity of the next three biggest producers (the EU, Japan, and the U.S. combined), just over 1 out of every 3 pounds of steel used for construction or manufacture comes from China.

That may not be news to anybody, but what you may have not known is that a key component of a vast majority of steel alloys — namely stainless and construction steel — is on the verge of setting off the biggest steel shortage in history.

And just as they have in the past with rare earths and lithium, the Chinese have positioned themselves to keep as much of what's left as they possibly can.

It's called molybdenum (muh-lib-dih-num), and ever since its first use in the legendary curved blades of the Samurai warriors, it's been an integral component of steel alloys.

Chances are, if the part in question has to resist strain, pressure, high temperature, or torque, it contains between 2% and 20% molybdenum.

This includes everything from engine blocks... to oil pipelines... to nuclear reactor cooling tubes... to aircraft wings...

I guess you know where I'm going with this now. The Chinese, true to form, realized this early on and have become net importers of this crucial metal for the first time ever.

Net importers... That's a term that lately, when mentioned in the same sentence as China, has been a recipe for instant hives for anyone invested in steady, low prices of a given material.

What's coming next?

Well, as major global suppliers replenish only 88% of the molybdenum consumed in 2010, JPMorgan expects prices to jump as much as 120%.

As the Chinese continue what may be the largest building boom in history, producing molybdenum-laden steel at a rate of 500 million tons per year (U.S. produces about 93 million tons annually), that 12% deficiency is expected to grow to a 38% deficiency within five years, doubling the price again.

By the time this gradually sobering trader got done telling me all this, I was almost dizzy. Thoughts were spinning through my head about the implications — but mostly, the opportunities this industrial deficit presented.

Before I knew it, the wheels were on the ground and the rainy, gloomy DC area air had transformed itself into the balmy near-tropical climate of South Florida.

Now I had two reasons to see my old venture capitalist buddy — his big expensive boat being the less urgent of the two by far.

The fact is molybdenum exploration mining can (and likely will) become the growth industry of at least the first half of the 21^st century.

Because with highly specialized, high-stress applications flooding into production each year, the market for non-molybdenum steel alloys is actually shrinking in relation to alloys dependant on the additive.

And with Chinese hunger for the material expanding even faster than the nation's economy (domestic steel production may hit 596 million tons in 2011 — a 19% increase), prices have nowhere to go except up.

Again, I wish these were all just my theories. The fact is, however, the pattern has been established for over a decade and a half.

So well established, in fact, that North American mining companies, for the first time in years, are starting to do exactly what they've been forced to do to deal with shortages in other essential areas.

They've started to explore. They've started to execute drill tests. They've started to look for ways to become independent of the Chinese campaign for price control. Most importantly, they've started to look for venture capital that would keep them out of Chinese corporate control.

There simply is no other choice — not for the companies; not for the western economies that each year becomes more and more reliant on Chinese steel; and definitely not for the consumer.

When I told my old buddy all this, and after a quick few keystrokes on the satellite-connected computer terminal he kept on his yacht, he got up, lit a cigarette, and walked into the bar to make himself a stiff drink.

Then he said something that made me even more nervous.

But this time, it was the good kid of nervous — the kind of nervous I get when I know I'm on the verge of nailing down a major new investment strategy.

"You know what, man?" he said in his slight Mediterranean accent. "I wish you'd told me all this a couple of weeks ago."

"Why's that?" I asked.

"Because," he chuckled, running his hand over the polished mahogany bar top, "if I'd known... I would have gotten a bigger boat."

Profitably Yours,

Brian Hicks
Publisher, Energy and Capital

P.S. On my way home from Miami, there was one thought that wouldn't leave my mind and it had nothing to do with multi-million dollar boats: How are we going to make this once-in-a-lifetime shot work for us?

And now we've found our answer: One North American outfit can land you profits of up to 2682% and beyond... Learn more about the tiny mining company tapping into a $60 billion deposit of one of the most crucial metals ever discovered.

Prices of Rare Earth Minerals Expected to Rise

2010-12-04T02:23:00.000-08:00

http://goldmoney.com/gold-research/prices-of-rare-earth-minerals-expected-to-rise.html

2010 Nov 26

Roman Baudzus writes --

Midweek it emerged that China's exports of rare earth minerals had decreased by 77 percent in October compared to the previous month. According to data issued by the Chinese authorities, the exports plummeted to 830 metric tons in October after reaching 3,660 metric tons in September. Experts put this development down to a government announcement from September, which declared its intention to drastically reduce the export quota for rare earth minerals. Analysts pointed out that the current situation would further boost the prices of rare metals.

While the current situation caused pandemonium among leading industrialised countries such as Germany or Japan, they are simultaneously looking to find a solution to the procurement problem. Rare earth minerals, which include metals such as scandium, yttrium, neodymium and europium, are essential for the production of leading technology applications. Especially new or alternative technologies, which generated promising industries such as wind energy, solar energy, nano technology and micro technology, could be faced with a pause in production. About 90 percent of all rare earth minerals are nowadays mined in China, which reflects the industrialised countries' current dependence on China. In the case of neodymium, which is used in the production of electric batteries, China's global export share even amounts to 97 percent.

Nevertheless, many of today's problems are home made. The industrialised countries had missed the opportunity to invest more capital in the exploration of new mining capacities in the past. Experts explained that there was also great potential for the exploration of rare earth minerals in countries like Australia, Canada or the United States. However, it would take six to ten years from the beginning of the exploration process until the start of the mining activities. Particularly Japan had to find a solution to its procurement problems quickly, since until recently, most of the country's industries had imported a great share of their rare earth minerals from China. As the Japanese Ministry of Trade announced in October, the country has reached an agreement for the exploration and the future mining of rare earth minerals with Vietnam in order to substitute part of its imports from China.

As emerged on Tuesday this week, Australia also promised Japan long-term delivery of rare earth minerals. At the moment, Japan is the fourth biggest importer of the rare metals worldwide but will have to wait until 2013 for Australia to start supplying the metals. It will take Australia until then to put the first new rare earth minerals mine into operation. The opening of a second mine is scheduled for the year 2014. Until then, China will have an effective tool on hand to put pressure on the industrialised countries. According to analysts, further price increases in the rare earth minerals sector can be expected in the near future, due to the current bottlenecks and the tense political situation.

Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2010. All rights reserved.
Written by Roman Baudzus - Contributing Writer

谢清海的股市投资分享

2010-10-16T20:57:00.001-07:00

http://www.gupiaoroom.com/201002/04293

谢清海，一个在投资界享负盛名的传奇人物。获他垂青的股份，往往升价逾倍；他主理的惠理基金，长期跑赢大市兼获奖无数，被喻为「殿堂级基金天王」。
近几年谢清海作风十分低调，鲜有公开谈股论市。今次破例接受本刊独家专访，除畅谈百战百胜的拣股秘技、精选心水价值股外，更首次公开復甦市下的投资组合。
在游资氾滥及通胀重临下，谢清海预期资產价格会水涨船高，更坦言：「未来六个月股市仍具投资价值。」
谈现市况：牛市未到现处復甦初阶
现职惠理集团(00806)主席及投资总监的谢清海，一向奉行「由下而上」(bottom-up)的价值选股原则，过去发掘无数被市场冷落的优质股，并率先买入；及后当市场惊觉「走宝」时，这些股份股价飆升，谢清海已饮了头啖汤。
久远的辉煌战绩暂且不提，但单看去年底至今反弹浪中，谢清海亦凭价值选股法，再下一城赢漂亮一仗。
「如果有基金今年的表现是跑输大市的，就因为他们减持太多股票、持有太多现金。「我只会买具有价值及估值很平的股份。去年11月左右很多股份跌得低贱，我就由此时开始将资金重投股市，因此造就了我们的基金，今年仍然跑赢大市。」根据交易纪录，去年底谢清海的投资旗舰惠理，在港股最恐慌之时已密密增持股份。
旗下基金斩获甚丰其中於去年10月至12月期间，三度增持中海发展(01138)，增持价介乎5.417至6.013元，持股量最多达6.17%；至今年2月、3月开始逐步减持获利，3月底持股量低於5%。中海发展股价升势延续至今年6月初高见12.9元，较谢清海的增持价翻逾一番。
及至最近，谢清海继续在港股中拣蟀，获垂青的股份包括申洲国际(02313)及北京京客隆(00814)。
申洲国际是於5月获谢清海两度增持，平均每股增持价为2.995至3.092元，持股量由4.76%增至6.09%。申洲国际股价5月至今升势依然，本週五(7月10日)高见4.32元，远高於谢清海的扫货价。
另一受宠股京客隆，谢清海更於4月底至6月底期间四度增持，持股量由4.98%增至8.2%，平均增持价3.051至4.027元。
本週二(7日)京客隆股价高见4.86元，令谢清海旗下基金斩获丰厚。最差时候已成过去正因为谢清海对股份独具惠眼，旗下基金今年表现卓越，其中「Value Partners China Greenchip」及「Value Partners 高息股票基金」，年初至今回报分别为55.91%及44.35%；同期恒生指数只上升23.1%。
谢清海重投股市，莫非牛市已经正式来临？他说：「我不认为目前是牛市，但可以定性为復甦市。「由於市场资金太多，而经歷去年全球金融问题后，资金流向都是选择既安全又具有增长的地方，尤其是中国。」
谢清海认为目前正处復甦市是有根有据。他指出，内地採购经理指数(PMI)已连续几个月上升，并高企於50以上，反映经济正在扩张。同时，谢清海亦对超过2,000间公司进行研究，发现很多公司的业绩已在上半年见底。
不少市场人士解释今年港股由低位大升，是由於通胀预期，令资金流入买资產保值。谢清海亦相信通胀将会重临，但预期只会反映在资產价格之上。「预期流入的资金不会太快流走；即使股市有所调整，但不会大跌，因为最差的时间已经过去。」谢清海认为，现在投资价值股仍然有理想回报，但要在投资组合的资產分配上多下工夫。
论下半年：80%资金买股买楼
不少市场人士认为，港股由去年低位10,676点，至今累升超过一半，市盈率升至高於平均歷史水平，可说是位高势危。谢清海指出，若以今年预测市盈率看，因今年企业盈利仍然受压，凸显市盈率偏高情况。但他对企业未来盈利復甦较具信心，认为不应单看今年市盈率数据。对於下半年港股展望，谢清海认为资金氾滥下会推高资產价格，相信未来六个月股市仍具有投资价值，但策略上仍然要倾向审慎，更要著重资產分配。「目前全球仍然存有不明朗因素，如将所有资金投放在股市中，万一之后经济有所差池，就会很麻烦。」
半成资產买黄金「若持有太多现金，目前利息实在太低，甚至是实际负利率，又是很差的做法。」谢清海接受本刊专访时，披露他对资產组合分配的绝密建议。「我个人会较为审慎，可以将组合中15%作为现金持有；另外5%用来买黄金，因为当全球经济未復甦前，金价会造好。
「至於其余80%资產，可用来购买股票及房地產。但拣股上不要太进取，要选择具有防守性的股份，这就是价值股。」谢清海说。
谢清海所指的价值股，就是符合他选股原则的股份，包括低市盈率、高股息率、合理股本回报率、管理上具有质素的股份。
「目前资金涌入，令内地开始出现经济泡沫。在泡沫形成下，价值股表现往往会跑输大市。因为在泡沫下，投资者喜欢炒卖具有概念的股份；但价值股却没有此炒作概念。」
当然，泡沫炒作是短暂，价值增长才是长线。因此在泡沫下，反而是低吸价值股的最佳时机。最近谢清海更将此套已用了16年、在投资中、港股市恆之有效的选股方法，具体化地应用在指数选股中。
拣股第一关：睇估值本週三惠理与富时集团合作，推出「富时价值股份中国指数」(简称价值股指数)，旨在发掘在港上市而被低估的优质中资股。指数内国企、红筹及民企等共25只成分股，便用上谢清海的价值选股机制。简单而言，通过多重筛选的股份，自然就是谢清海的心水爱股。若要成为价值股指数成分股，必先通过第一关估值测试。考虑估值是否吸引，其中一个方法是选取高股息率的股份。
至於何谓高息，谢清海认为没有分界，但起码要较同业平均水平为高。拣股第二关：看股票质素即使顺利通过第一关，还要接受第二关挑战，决定该股是否具有质素，包括要有高股本回报率、高经营利润率及低净资產负债比率。此三项数据，是同时考虑过去三年平均数字。其中股本回报率在不依靠银行借贷下，要高於平均水平；经营利润率要高於，或至少达平均水平；同时，负债比率过大但较低利润率的公司将被剔除，以避开价值投资陷阱。
「现在我更看重公司质素，小心从SWOT，即公司的优势(Strength)、劣势(Weakness)、机会(Opportunity)和威胁(Threat)来找寻股份；另亦看重该公司的持续性，不喜欢一些销售及现金流波动的公司。「另外，以前内地是没有品牌的，可口可乐（Coca-Cola）只是西方的品牌。但现在内地市场愈来愈成熟，亦已经发展本土的品牌，我们更要小心其品牌价值。」
拣股第三关：逆向投资通过首两关测试后，股份更要符合逆向投资原则。即当大部分分析师普遍看好的股份，反而会被剔除。
「我们是奉行逆向投资，当有80%分析员表示要买入某股时，反而是沽售的时候；相反，若有80%分析员投资建议沽售时，就可以考虑买进。至於为何要定80%?因为我们认为此比例已经是足够的。」谢清海说。
同时通过上述三关的股份，将按市盈率排序，市盈率最低的25间公司，便成为价值股指数的成分股。此25只股份再按可供投资市值进行加权，以确保指数可投资性，单只股份佔指数成分股比例上限为15%。
最新的价值股指数成分股，其中四只是内银股，包括建设银行(00939)、中信银行(00998)、工商银行(01398)及中国银行(03988)；另有五只内房股，包括瑞安房地產(00272)、合生创展(00754)、方兴地產(00817)、合景泰富(01813)及雅居乐地產(03383)。
虽然成分股出现偏重某些行业情况，但上述股份筛选过程是以价值为先，并非以平衡行业比例为目标。此结果正反映不少内银股及内房股具有价值股元素。事实上，从指数成分股所见，不少股份并非热门当炒股份，亦不一定是行业龙头股。以煤炭股为例，未见龙头中国神华(01088)，却有兗州煤业(01171)、中煤能源(01898)及恒鼎实业(01393)。
内房股中，不见龙头股中国海外(00688)上榜，反而二、三线内房股，如合生创展及方兴地產却并列成分股，反映此指数是拣股不拣市。正因透过筛选程序确定股份具有价值，令成分股长远表现往往可跑赢大市。以该指数追溯过去三年表现作参考，多数时间跑赢新华富时中国25指数（见上图）。谢清海已公开多年来的拣股心法，接下来就是要知道他对哪个行业、哪个市场具有兴趣，其中三大组合非留意不可。
谢清海威水传奇
今年55岁的谢清海，初出茅庐时任《亚洲华尔街日报》及《远东经济评论》财经记者；其后转职香港Morgan Grenfell集团，为该公司创立并领导香港股票研究部门，同时进行坐盘交易；至1993年与叶维义共同创办惠理基金，并一直担任投资总监。
多年来谢清海在投资界获奖无数，包括今年获《AsianInvestor》杂誌选为亚洲区资產管理行业25位最具影响力人物之一；亦获《FinanceAsia》财经杂誌选为2007年度Capital Markets Person。论及战绩，最为市场津津乐道的，是2001年初B股一役。
当时B股市场并未开放予内地人投资，只让外资参与，因此成交稀疏，股份价值被低估，亦乏人问津。谢清海早已洞悉内地市场增长无限，重注投资B股；及至2001年2月中国证监会突然将上海及深圳B股市场停市一星期，之后宣布向境内居民开放B股市场，此举令B股如脱疆野马般大升，谢清海旗下基金亦大有斩获。因为战绩彪炳，惠理管理资產水涨船高，其母公司惠理集团更在2007年11月在港上市。
组合一：两大理由看好中、港地產股
谢清海在访问中以个人身分提议投资者，将80%资產投放在地產及股票上。他看好这两类资產不外乎两个原因，而一切还是从美国滥「印银纸」开始说起。谢清海以投资中小型工业股打响名堂，但他掌握地產市场的脉搏也见功力。正当2003年人人因「沙士」惶惶不可终日之时，他却大手购入长江实业（00001）、恒隆地產（00101）及信和置业（00083）股份，成功捞底。
如今谢清海再次发出看好中、港地產股的言论。「我对中、港地產股及香港地產价格异常乐观，因为这些都是有升值潜力的资產。」现时正值人人认为股市、楼市位高势危，他却表明看好香港地產股及地產价格，记者不得不再三追问背后玄机。理由一：美国印钞资金涌向中国在谢清海眼中，看好楼市离不开两个理由。「实在有太多资金在中、港股市流动，这是全球各国政府实行实质负利率及宽鬆货币政策下的现象。
「虽然美国狂『印银纸』，但美国经济前景恶劣，资金不会留在当地投资；相反，市场只会投资在经济前景良好的地区，中国正好符合这个条件。」
正当世界银行将全球经济增长预测调低至负2.9%之际，中国距离全年「保八」目标却愈来愈近。理由二：联匯所限造成资產通胀在资金流向中国的背景下，谢清海意识到受资產通胀概念带动，香港资產价格是无得跌。「通胀将会来到，带动资產价格上升。
「这个问题在香港尤为严重，因为香港实行联繫匯率，港、美之间匯率不能调节下，唯有在资產价格上反映资金流入的影响。这个现象我会称之为资產通胀（Asset Inflation）。」
资金流入应会推高匯价。然而，在联匯强方兑换保证制度下，港元匯价不能升穿7.75上限水平。至於香港楼价，谢清海认为并非疯狂。「当你比较市民收入和楼价时，实际上亦算是合理，绝非疯狂。」香港现时供楼负担比率仅27.7%，相对1997年的93.2%已大为合理。谢清海没有明言对内地地產市场的看法，但惠理基金副投资总监苏俊淇认为，内地楼市目前尚算健康。既然有两大理由支持入市，谢清海领导下的惠理基金亦已率先购入地產股及相关股份。
香港地產相关股份中，惠理持有资本策略（00497），但在4月14日减持，目前仍持有近7%股权。
惠理在去年12月捞底买合富辉煌（00733）。当楼市升温，成交自然上升，合富辉煌作为广州地產代理自然受惠。惠理基金在5月8日披露，以每股1.889元减持合富辉煌，持股量由14.06%减持至13.97%。无论如何，惠理基金在此股回报可观，因为惠理去年底三度在0.5至0.6元水平增持。
根据蛛丝马跡，普罗投资者一样可以按谢清海的价值投资原则拣股。毫无疑问，今时今日各类股份投资值博率已大不如今年3月份低位。但应用谢清海拣股原则，仍有个别地產股存在相当投资价值。例如北辰实业（00588）及上海復地（02337）亦符合谢清海的拣股原则，但现价09年度预测市盈率低见10及11.4 倍；边际经营利润达49.1%及32.5%，虽然不是最高，但仍属中游水平。
组合二：专吼隐世内需股
内需股一直是投资市场焦点之一，谢清海作为惠理基金掌舵人自然不会放过。过去16年谢清海奉行「人弃我取」之道，根据惠理持股纪录，常见「唔冷门唔买」痕跡。正如今年惠理基金购入少为投资者注意的京客隆，便是这热门板块中的冷门股。
谢清海倾向买入冷门的内需股亦不难理解。盖内需股作为全球焦点，估值已被炒到天价。在金融海啸下，估值仍然相对偏高。如此情况，惠理不买冷门内需股，就难以将价值投资法引用在内需股板块上。
话说回来，惠理基金在4月30日吸纳京客隆。据事后曝光，惠理当日增持了46.8万股京客隆H股（国企股），平均买入价为3.051元；之后再度增持，愈买愈升。现时惠理持有京客隆达8.2%。及至本週五（10日），京客隆股价收报4.7元，较惠理基金持股曝光时的平均买入价累升达54%。
揭买京客隆之谜既然能够亲身接触谢清海，记者单刀直入，希望他亲自揭开购入京客隆的理由。「和其他基金一样，惠理基金对内地内需非常看好，但我们不喜欢买别人也会一齐抢购的股份，例如物美商业（08277）。
「我们尝试买些有别於投资市场喜好的股份。惠理基金其中一位基金经理提议拣选京客隆，因为从市盈率、股息率等范畴看，均远较知名股份吸引。」事实上，内地知名超市股估值殊不便宜。如华润创业（00291）、联华超市（00980）及物美09年度预测市盈率高达介乎17.8至24.2倍之间。
相对而言，京客隆估值低见10倍预测市盈率，正好符合谢清海价值拣股原则。时代零售符合条件股息率方面，京客隆更称王称霸，预测股息率高达4.8厘；反观其余知名超市股股息率则在2厘之下，估计已脱离谢清海的侦察范围。
其实，谢清海不止买廉价股份，更会考虑该公司经营生意的质素。京客隆虽然只是北京其中一个超市网络商，但边际利润达4.2%，绝对不逊色於其他全国性超市股。
从另一角度看，虽然京客隆边际利润不及物美，但物美现时估值高达24.2倍市盈率，投资者即使有兴趣，也变得审慎。若按如此思路分析，时代零售（01832）或同样符合谢清海的拣股条件。盖时代零售是硕果仅存、市盈率低见约10倍左右的超市股。股息率方面，时代零售也见不俗，现价预测股息率达 3.3厘，仅次於京客隆。至於时代零售生意质素亦佳，边际利润达4.9%，排名第三，整体质素绝不逊於京客隆。
非常看好台股前景
在谢清海眼中，价值投资之道正是人弃我取。正如当年投资市场对内地B股市场避之则吉，他敢於逆水行舟，最后赢了漂亮一仗。此时此刻，投资者对台股了无兴趣，谢清海却笑言：「非常看好。台股自1990年代泡沫爆破后，至今都未收復失地，令很多投资者对台湾失去兴趣。」
当时台湾加权指数在1990年2月创下12,424点歷史新高，即使在2008年马英九当选总统后带动投资气氛改善，至今仍未能收復失地。「纵使两岸关係有所突破，投资市场仍没有足够人看好台湾。正因为投资市场仍未意识到台湾有多么吸引，故此我们绝对看好台湾。」在谢清海眼中，台股蓄势待发。「我们认为两岸关係持续改善，会有很多优惠惠及台湾，故此我们对台股非常看好。」既然如此，惠理基金亦坐言起行在2008年3月推出「惠理台湾基金」。截至今年6月底止，该基金管理资產为2.6亿元，年初至今升幅为24.9%，最看好仍是非日用消费品股份，佔基金资產的24%；至於台股的主力部队科技股，则佔该基金资產值22%。
组合三：供应不足商品股大利
谢清海眼中，通胀是股市回升动力之一；同时亦会利好地產、商品及资源股。然而，他看中商品还有一个原因，就是供应不足。谢清海接受本刊专访时说：「实际上，我个人一定看好商品，因为仍有潜在供应不足情况。我曾经参观澳洲的矿山，矿场其实不容易把矿石从地面掘出来。」
这个生动例子说明地下天然资源受技术所限，不能因应经济情况加快开採。这种情况不止在澳洲矿山出现，甚至煤矿及油井也会面对如此情况。正如内地资源股龙头中国石油天然气（00857）及神华，每年开採石油与煤炭升幅不足5%及20%。
谢清海没有明言供应不足和商品走势向好的关係，但细心一想，经济回暖必定刺激商品需求，令供应不足加剧，商品价格必升无疑，商品股股价也会一骑绝尘。一再强调通胀威胁供应不足的例子俯拾皆是。以石油为例，需求较两年前经济高峰期有所放缓，但不代表之前出现的供应不足不药而癒。当经济重拾升轨时，石油需求就会重燃增长。不幸的是，经济衰退期间石油生產商往往没有加大石油矿井投资的力度，结果当经济復甦时，供应不足情况总会歷史重演。
石油只是其中一个例子，相信就是谢清海看好整个商品资產板块的背后原因。经济永远不会一潭死水，当经济復甦时，亦会刺激商品需求。谢清海估计，今年内地经济增长达8%；明年增长会更高。若看法兑现，商品供应不足随时出现。
谢清海在整个访问中不断强调资產通胀的威胁。「市民会买入实物资產。」他没有明言通胀下的商品价格走势，但除了房地產外，如石油、黄金等实物资產价格亦会造好。
惠理旗下「Value Partners China Greenchip」、「Value Partners高息股票基金」及「惠理价值基金」三大持股中，均见石油股中国海洋石油（00883）踪影，是谢清海看好商品的佐证。
「5%资產押注黄金」
「基金天王」谢清海在股票市场运筹帷幄、决胜千里。然而，他个人认为在现时大上大落的市况，别将所有鸡蛋放在同一篮子，故建议投资者：「将5%资產投资黄金，因为世界仍然不确定。如有任何出错，黄金将会体现其价值。」一言以蔽之，买黄金就是买一项保障。不过，买实金要考虑储存问题。SPDR金 ETF（02840）2008年登陆本港后，解决了上述难题。因为每一单位黄金ETF代表十分之一盎斯黄金，全部储存在?丰银行位於伦敦的金库。再者，SPDR金ETF在港交所买卖，令买卖黄金变成买股票般容易，儼然为港人提供投资黄金的新渠道，令谢清海将5%资產放在黄金上的建议较以往更易执行。当然，窝轮市场中亦有黄金相关的產品。不过，黄金窝轮加入槓桿及其他外在元素，似乎偏离了谢清海建议投资黄金以对冲风险的原意。
明年展望：中国泡沫有好有坏
对於下半年股市展望，谢清海认为整体走势仍是波动，但仍不失为具有投资价值；若展望明年表现，他又有何见解？「我个人意见是内地已经开始形成泡沫。股价表现是反映投资者对未来的希望与恐惧，因为目前投资者预期未来经济会比现在好，因此股市表现领先基本因素。」谢清海说。谢清海所指的泡沫，是因为外国央行不断「印银纸」，令市场资金氾滥。而此等热钱又不断流入中国，包括内地股市及楼市，令相关资產价格上升。若情况持续，将令资產价格高企，脱离基本因素，出现资產泡沫。
至於最先出现的泡沫，谢清海预期将会在地產股出现，因为不少内房股今年股价已倍升。究竟这泡沫会否在明年爆破?谢清海进一步解释：「何时爆破就难以预期。根据过去经验，泡沫可以延伸很长时间，日本就是最好例子。
「你问我明年股市走势如何，目前仍未知道。因为现今社会跟以往已经不同，经济週期愈来愈短，週期转动又快又波动。我的分析亦要因时制宜，可以很快就改变。」
市场一般对泡沫的看法是负面。因为泡沫爆破后一切化为乌有，如1997年香港楼市泡沫、2000年科技泡沫后，不少人身家大缩水，甚至惨变负资產。谢清海则认为泡沫是中性的，有好又有坏。
投资内地内陆胜沿海「泡沫形成初期是很开心的。因为资產价格升值，股市及楼市大升產生不少财富。「最麻烦是泡沫挥之不去，甚至爆破，届时造成负面影响，拖累经济。但相信中央亦会出手，避免泡沫爆破引来的恶果。」
亦正因为泡沫初期会推高资產价格，所以地產股在泡沫未爆破前，仍可看高一线。虽然谢清海认为内地存有泡沫，但整体而言亦是看好内地市场发展，尤其是内陆地区的投资机会。
「一些沿海地区以出口为主，最受环球市道影响；反而一些位於内陆的城市，如湖南及四川，可能靠本地消费及固定资產投资，已经有好好的增长，因此资金已转往内陆地区投资。」谢清海解释。
事实上，目前内陆投资增长较沿海大城市更快。以今年首五个月各地区城镇投资情况为例，湖南、四川及黑龙江的城镇投资，按年升幅分别为37.5%、55.2%及50.8%；相反，上海、福建及广东按年投资金额，只按年上升5.2%、14.7%及14.1%。
一旦内地经济泡沫爆破，经济上已与内地唇齿相依的香港，又会有何震盪？谢清海相信打击有限。「香港已经是一个很成熟的市场，而且港人亦经歷过很多次泡沫爆破经验，变得更为小心。」
总结：泡沫爆破前享受股市升势
谢清海谦称对整体大市分析不是专家，没有对今年恒指定下目标价，只预期即使下半年市况波动，但仍然具有投资价值。
谢清海更认为在资金涌入、通胀重临，甚至是在形成泡沫之初，正是投资股市及楼市大好机会，因为资產价格会很快地上升。
但在环球经济尚未完全明朗化下，谢清海仍不忘告诫股民拣股不宜太进取，而是应该拣选具防守性的价值股。他始终深信，只有价值股才可给予长线投资回报。

Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply

2010-10-15T03:57:00.000-07:00

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10077965-54.html

The headlong rush to create electric cars for green-minded consumers may come with a significant economic and environmental cost.

Lithium ion batteries--the same used in electronic gadgets and laptops--have become the preferred battery type for plug-in hybrids and electric cars now starting to come to market.

That swelling demand has some industry observers concerned that there will be a shortage of the metal lithium, the material used to make the batteries.

"You can solve the transportation problem but end up creating an equally vexing commodity problem," said Matthew Nordan, president of emerging technology consulting firm Lux Research. "It's a big concern."
In the short term, auto companies will be able to bring plug-in hybrid cars to market as planned in the next few years. Production of lithium has increased since the 1990s to meet the demand for batteries in power tools and consumer electronics, said Brian Jaskula, the lithium mineral commodity specialist at the U.S. Geological Survey. Prices over the past few years have increased steadily as well, he said.

The white patch on the bottom of this NASA satellite image shows the Salar of Uyuni in Bolivia, considered a significant but unexploited deposit of lithium. Lake Titicaca is the large body of water to the north.

(Credit: NASA)

Longer term, though, the picture is less clear. Batteries for cars are expensive, which is the biggest reason that plug-in electric cars cost more.

"Prices in the last couple of years have slowly gone up," Jaskula said. "But if the Chevy Volt and other cars like that become a big raging success and the demand really increases but supply doesn't keep up, then the price will go up obviously."

Whether or not a global run on lithium pans out as projected by the worriers, the situation highlights an underappreciated risk when it comes to alternative energy, namely securing supplies of natural resources. In other words, if some green technologies are successful in displacing fossil fuels, there could be shortages of materials that most people never heard of before.

"In all these newfangled clean technology applications, quite often the ones that appear to have strong growth potential face a challenge in that they are reliant on some material that has been in short use to date," said clean-tech venture capitalist Rob Day, a partner at @Ventures. "Possibly, they don't have enough supply to fulfill (growth) requirements."

Other examples include indium, a material used in a new generation of low-cost CIGS solar cells, and coatings on solar panels, Day said. And for several years, researchers have sought to come up with an alternative material for expensive platinum, which is used as a catalyst in fuel cells, noted Barbara Heydorn, who is director at the center of excellence in energy at science research nonprofit SRI International.

Eye on South America

Today, Toyota's Prius hybrid electric cars have nickel-metal hydride batteries. Because of improvements in weight and storage in lithium ion batteries, though, a number of auto manufacturers will be using them in plug-in hybrids expected to come to market in the next two years.

General Motors, for example, plans to use lithium ion batteries for the Volt and the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid, both of which are expected in late 2010. Toyota, too, is planning cars with lithium ion batteries, but it is said to be researching zinc air batteries for vehicles as well.

Today, lithium is extracted from dried salt ponds or "salt flats." A briny liquid underneath the surface is pumped out and dried in the sun. The dried material can be made into lithium carbonate, which is later processed to make lithium.

There are widely divergent views on whether the existing producers of lithium--most located in South America and China--can keep pace with an onrush of hundreds of thousands or millions of new plug-in hybrid cars in the next few years.

Energy and transportation consultant William Tahil of Meridian International Research last year rekindled the supply debate in a paper, which was followed by another paper (PDF) issued in May.

He concluded that lithium supply will be absorbed largely by the fast-growing consumer electronics industry and that increased demand for lithium production will worsen relations between the U.S. and Latin America.

With continued 25 percent yearly growth in portable electronics, there would only be enough lithium carbonate for 1.5 million Chevy Volt-type vehicles by 2015 with "optimum production increases," according to Tahil.

The results of Tahil's studies are disputed. Geologist R. Keith Evan, for one, calculated worldwide reserves and concluded there is an abundance of lithium to meet electric-car demand.

Tahil counters that the total inventory of lithium does not reflect the increased mining cost of getting lithium from sources other than lithium carbonate.

In addition, further exploitation of the world's largest salt flat, the Salar de Atacama in Chile, and the development of new sites, such the large reserves in Bolivia, would cause substantial damage to those ecosystems, Tahil and the USGS's Jaskula said.

"The point is that electric cars are supposed to be environmentally friendly cars and there are many other materials such as zinc and iron...which don't require any more environmental degradation than has already been done," Tahil said in an interview.

Financial analyst Craig Irwin, who is vice president of energy storage and energy efficiency at Merriman Curhan Ford, indicated that projected lithium supply has not dampened enthusiasm for the technology. He noted that lithium can also be extracted from different materials, including the mineral spodumene.

"There are two highly polarized camps," Irwin said. "The processing technology (for spodumene) is not entirely mature yet, but I don't think it's an insurmountable challenge."

Representatives from lithium ion battery maker EnerDel did not respond to a request for comment before publication. Another well-regarded lithium ion battery company, A123 Systems, declined to comment because it is in a quiet period before its planned public offering.

Commodity rules apply

For economic reasons alone, some businesses are taking a strategic approach to effectively sourcing materials, like lithium, for alternative energy technologies.

General Electric recently assigned a research scientist the full-time job of studying sources of materials that are critical to GE, which is investing heavily in battery technologies for transportation and grid storage.
GE was caught "behind the curve" when one material used in its aircraft engines shot up in price, so it's now looking for other "pinch points," said Mark Little, director of GE's research labs.

"The ability to supply batteries, including the raw materials, from a national security standpoint is a valid question which we should be posing. I don't know the answer," said Glen Merfeld, manager of the Chemical Energy Systems Laboratory at GE Research.

Because lithium is a commodity like oil, the same economics apply, said Ripu Malhotra, associate director at the chemical science and technology laboratory at SRI International.

Limits of mineral supplies lead to higher prices and an incentive to accumulate bigger reserves, he said. And the higher prices will spur investment in new extraction technologies from unconventional sources. For example, the price of corn shot up to meet a surge in ethanol demand. Now, producers are developing methods to use alternative feedstocks, like wood chips and grasses.

"These are brand new markets. If it truly becomes a limiting factor, prices go up and we find new sources of material or ways to recycle the material," SRI International's Heydorn said.

Better Place, for example, plans to install battery-charging stations in Israel, Denmark, and Australia to jump-start a rapid transition to electric cars. But a lithium shortage will mean its ambitious plans would need to be scaled back, according to Nordan.

Speaking at recent conference, Project Better Place co-founder and adviser Andrey Zarur acknowledged that the company is "betting big time" that recycling technologies and alternative to lithium ion batteries will emerge in the coming years.

Lithium ion car battery-pack suppliers themselves will have plenty of business in the years to come if sales come close to projections. But that growth will affect commodity prices, Nordan predicts. It's also leading to stepped-up research into alternative battery chemistries, such as nickel-metal hydride variants, zinc air, and magnesium.

"There's a flowering of interest in battery technologies with abundant materials," Nordan said. "Abundant materials are the words of the day."

Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin.

China clean tech's rare-earth advantage

2010-10-15T03:45:00.000-07:00

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20013427-54.html

In the race to build hybrid cars and wind turbines to feed growing demand for green technology, China has one clear advantage: it holds the world's largest reserves of rare-earth metals and dominates global production.

Wind turbines, made by No. 2 wind turbine maker Xinjiang Goldwind Science and Technology, and hybrid cars, being developed by Warren Buffett-backed Chinese automaker BYD, are among the biggest guzzlers of rare-earth minerals, which analysts say are facing a global supply crunch as demand swells.

This little-known class of 17 related elements is also used for a vast array of electronic devices ranging from Apple's iPhone to flat-screen TVs, all of which are competing for the 120,000 tons of annual global supply.
China controls 97 percent of rare-earth production.

"Rare earth for China is like oil to the Middle East," said Yuanta Securities analyst Min Li.
Worldwide demand for rare earth is expected to exceed supply by some 30,000 to 50,000 tons by 2012 unless major new production sources are developed, say officials at Australian rare-earth mining company Arafura Resources.

China has curbed exports of the mineral since 2005 through quotas and duties, saying it needs additional supplies to develop its domestic clean-energy and high-tech sectors. On Wednesday, it said it would cut export quotas in 2010 by 40 percent.

"Export restrictions may provide an advantage to Chinese turbine makers, again because of the cost advantage," said CIMB analyst Keith Li.

He said Chinese green companies would have priority in securing supply of the metals over international peers and their proximity to sources of the minerals ensures quicker and cheaper long-term supply.
China's domestic consumption of the metals poses the biggest threat to global supply. The country, which holds a third of the world's reserves, eats up to 60 percent of global rare-earth supply for a wide range of applications from consumer gadgets and medical equipment to defense weapons.

China's trading partners have grown increasingly vocal about its move to cut its export quotas, but Beijing is determined to control the rare-earth market.

"Foreign companies could be facing some material supply risks, unless they decide to move production to China," warned Yuanta's Min Li.

Window of opportunity

But while China may ensure its first-tier green companies are given access to the rare elements, analysts agree this alone is unlikely to guarantee success for the Chinese clean-tech firms.

New technologies free of rare-earth elements could emerge that may undermine China's advantage, while further cuts in rare-earth quotas could trigger a political backlash which could force the nation to keep supply open for its trading partners.

"Chinese technology needs to develop quickly enough to make full use of that advantage," said CIMB's Li. "That window closes if its existing technologies fail to evolve."

Still China will have the upper hand in the global rare-earth market for a while yet.

There are currently many new mine projects outside of China in the pipeline but few will be able to compete with it on price unless governments offer production subsidies.

Low prices for rare-earth metals from China have undermined production and led to closure of several mines overseas. Lax environmental rules and cheap labor also allow China to sell rare earth metals at low prices.
Also, the development of new rare-earth mines could take as many as 10 years.

China's leading rare-earth company, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech, is building 200,000 tons in rare-earth oxide reserves, and state media reported that the company is joining forces with Jiangxi Copper to set unified prices for rare-earth metals.

If supply becomes extremely tight as experts suggest, Chinese green companies may take upon themselves to secure the mineral by getting involved in the actual process of making rare-earth products, analysts said.
BYD is scouting for new sources of lithium, an important ingredient for its high-performance batteries.
Like that of rare-earth metals, lithium supply is expected to be tight by 2050, according to a European Commission study on critical raw materials. That is assuming most consumers would ditch their oil-guzzling cars for new-generation vehicles.

"BYD is looking for new supply of raw materials all over China, not just in Sichuan," said company spokesman Paul Lin in response to an inquiry about rumors that the company is buying lithium assets in the Chinese province known for its rich reserves of lithium and other materials. The company declined to make further comments about the rumored deal.

A sister company of rival Toyota has secured a lithium supply deal in Argentina, while Toshiba also plans to set up a rare-metals joint venture with Kazakhstan state-owned firm Kazatomprom.
Toyota, which makes the top-selling hybrid car Prius, and Nissan, maker of electric car Leaf, as well as General Motors, which designed plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, are most vulnerable to a rare-earth supply crunch, analysts say.

A car like the Prius requires 1 kilogram (2.2 pounds) of neodymium. And each Prius battery uses 10 to 15 kilograms of another rare earth, lanthanum, said Jack Lifton, a commodities analyst and leading authority on rare metals.

Siemens and General Electric, which are investing in the development of direct-drive turbines for offshore wind generation, could also be facing risks in securing supply of the rare earth, they said.
Story Copyright (c) 2010 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20013427-54.html#ixzz12QIHvnES

Rare Earth Metals – The Next Gold Rush?

2010-10-15T00:29:00.000-07:00

http://dailytradealert.com/2010/10/01/rare-earth-metals-%E2%80%93-the-next-gold-rush/

October 1, 2010

By Tony Sagami, Uncommon Wisdom

China and Japan are having a small but potentially painful dispute over the ownership of a small chain of islands in the East China Sea.

These islands have very little significance other than the oil deposits that may lie around them. Whoever owns these islands would have claims to the mineral deposits on the ocean floors surrounding the islands.

Tensions heated up when a Japanese coast guard boat collided with a Chinese fishing vessel on September 7. Japanese authorities detained the Chinese captain and tough talk flowed from both sides.

The culmination was the temporary halt of exportation of rare earth metals from China to Japan.
Rare earth? No, I’m not talking about the 1970′s rock group nor am I talking about uranium or plutonium. I’m talking about a group of minerals that contain elements quite rare when discovered in Sweden in 1787.
Maybe you’ve never heard of rare earth metals, but you use them every day of your life. They’re used in things like cell phones, semiconductors, lasers, fiber-optic cable, plasma TVs, hybrid cars, microwave ovens, and scud missiles.

They — and just about anything electronic — contain some of the most obscure chemical elements on the planet known as rare earth metals.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has identified 17 elements that are considered rare earth metals, but nobody paid much attention to them until recent years because of the development of new technologies and electronic devices.

Most of the world’s advanced defense, medical, and high-tech electronics simply won’t work without rare earth metals. These metals have very special physical and chemical attributes, including high degrees of magnetism, luminosity, superconductivity and environmental non-toxicity.

These obscure metals are so critical to our modern world that they are as strategically important as oil, copper, uranium, natural gas, and coal. And I believe that an investment in rare earth metals will be even more lucrative.

And what’s this got to do with Asia? Tons! Keep reading and you’ll understand exactly what I mean and why an investment in rare earth metals could be the best natural resources investment you can make.
Reason #1: Booming Demand. Ten years ago, the world used 40,000 metric tons of rare earth metals a year. Today, the world uses 125,000 tons, but is expected to grow to over 200,000 tons by about 2014.
The reason for the soaring demand is simple: The world is building and consuming more high-tech devices. Plus, new demand from green energy initiatives is gobbling up all the rare earth metals that the world can produce.

The consensus of the forecasts I’ve read predict a 40,000-ton shortage by 2015.
The U.S. Magnetic Materials Association said, “It is estimated that Chinese domestic consumption of rare earth materials will outpace Chinese domestic supply between 2012 to 2015. It is unclear whether rare earth material will be available outside China in the coming years.”

Here is a link to a 2-minute Reuters news video about the demand for rare earth metals that I highly recommend you watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2CpFYCqZz8

No question, the world is headed for a supply/demand imbalance and that will push the price of rare earth metals higher. Much, much higher.

Reason #2: Global Supply Controlled by China. Until 1948, most of the world’s rare earth metals were sourced from placer sand deposits in India and Brazil when South Africa became the largest producer. India and South African still produce rare earth metals today, but China has zoomed past everybody since the 1980′s.

This number is almost hard to believe, but it is absolutely true: China produces and controls 95% of the world’s production of rare earth minerals. Yup, 95%!

The problem is that China currently uses about two-thirds of what it produces, but is on a consumption trajectory where it will use everything it produces in a few more years. When that happens, the U.S. and the rest of the world will be S.O.L.!

In September of last year, China announced plans to lower its export quota of rare earth metals to 35,000 tons per year in 2010-2015.

Wait, it gets worse. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering a total ban on exports of terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, thulium, and lutetium.

It’s part of a plan that Deng Xiaoping started almost two decades ago when he said that rare earth metals would “Do for China what oil did for Saudi Arabia.”

Reason #3: A Matter of National Security. Every piece — and I mean EVERY piece — of high-tech military warfare is made with rare earth metals, including precision-guided munitions, night vision goggles, radar, and lasers.

If we lost our supplies of rare earth metals, our country’s ability to produce many of these weapon systems would cease to exist. Since China controls 95% of the world’s supply of rare earth metals, we are extremely vulnerable.

The General Accounting Office said that the U.S. produced zero rare earth elements in 2009 and that it will take up to 15 years to rebuild our own domestic rare earth supply chain.

“The United States has the expertise, but lacks the manufacturing assets and facilities to refine oxides to metals. Refined metal is almost exclusively available from China,” states the GAO.

The U.S. Magnetic Materials Association said that the United States is already in a “silent crisis.” And that “it is unclear whether rare earth material will be available outside China in the coming years.”

In June of 2009, the U.S. House of Representatives passed HR 2647, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Section 828 of the Act included language concerning “the availability of rare earth materials and components containing rare earth materials in the defense supply chain.”

Section 828 noted that “less common metals” such as the rare earths and thorium were “critical to modern technologies, including numerous defense critical technologies and these technologies cannot be built without the use of these metals and materials produced from them and therefore could qualify as strategic materials, critical to national security.”

Representative Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said “China is a rapidly rising military and economic power and the fact is that they cornered the market on these rare earth metals that are essential for a lot of our advanced weapons systems as well as a lot of manufacturing in the United States.”

Representative Mike Coffman said, “We need to move aggressively on this issue now before it’s too late.”
Between now and the 15 years that it will take to rebuild our own rare earth metal supply chain, you can bet that our Military Industrial Complex is going to be a big buyer and a big stockpile of rare earth metals, the price of which is certain to go much higher.

Reason #4: Green Energy and Rare Earth Metals. Rare earth metals are also a back door way to profit from the “green” revolution. That is because most of the green energy initiatives cannot function with rare earth metals. Three green technologies — hybrid cars, solar panels, and wind turbines — use mountains of rare earth metals.

▪ Hybrid vehicles, like the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight, are big users of rare earth metals. Each car has about 2 kg of neodymium in it rechargeable nickel hydride battery and another kilogram or so of lanthanum and praseodymium in the drive train.

▪ Solar panel efficiency is measured as a percentage of light energy that is converted to electricity. Silicon solar panels are 25% efficient, but the newest generation of solar panels called multi-junction solar panels have efficiencies greater than 40%. These solar panels use the rare metal indium.

▪ Every wind turbine tower has a massive, highly engineered electromechanical system in it that couldn’t operate without lanthanides.

Here is a link to a very informative video about the role that rare earth elements play in green energy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxZLKiQd0yk

The Green Energy revolution is still in its infancy and its inevitable growth will place huge demand for rare earth metals and send the prices through the roof!

Reason #5: Brain Drain to China. Getting the raw materials out of the ground is just the first step. The next and equally important step is to refine that dirt into ready-to-use form. Not only does China have the raw resources, they also have most of the production capacity: Metal production, alloying, strip casting, magnetic powder production and, ultimately, magnet production.

The rest of the world is scrambling to open up new rare earth mines, but it will take decades to build the refining capacity. The biggest obstacle, however, is that most of the experience and knowledge is in China and can’t be easily duplicated.

For example, the division of General Motors which deals with miniaturized magnet research shut down its U.S. office and moved its entire staff to China in 2006.

Reason #6: Not in My Backyard. The U.S. may talk about building its own rare earth supply chain, the reality is that mining and processing the finished materials is a dirty, polluting process and the environmental crowd in the U.S. will fight any efforts to build on American soil.

Here is a link to a CNN report on the environmental costs of rare earth metals mining.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO94WHkqHg4

Look at the obstacles oil companies have had to get permission to opening new drilling fields or refineries. Nobody wants them in their backyard and rare earth metal refining is even worse. I can’t see any meaningful production capacity opened anywhere but third world countries that are willing to accept the pollution cost.
How can you invest in rare earth metals?

China Rare Earth Holdings produces about 20% of the world’s supply of rare earth metals which makes it the Saudi Arabia of rare earth metals. China Rare Earth Holdings trades both on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0769.HK) and the U.S. over-the-counter market (CREQF.PK).

Avalon Rare Metals owns a large but untapped mine in Canada. It trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (AVL) and the U.S. over-the-counter market (AVARF.PK).

Lynas Corporation has one of the richest deposits of rare earth metals in the world. It trades on the Australian stock exchange (LYC.AX) as well as the U.S. over-the-counter market (LYSCF.PK).
Molycorp (MCP) went public earlier this year on the NYSE. It owns the Mountain Pass mine in Southern California, the largest rare earth metals deposit outside of China.

I should to disclose that my Asia Stock Alert subscribers already own China Rare Earth Holdings and we are sitting on a huge open gain. Even though we have a big gain, I am holding on for even more profits.
You need to do your own homework and decide if any of these rare earth stocks are appropriate for your situation. These are very volatile stocks, so stay away if you don’t have a high tolerance for risk. The reward, however, should be big, big, big.

Best wishes,
– Tony Sagami

Source: Uncommon Wisdom

Rare hopes for a Buffett bonanza

2010-10-15T00:24:00.000-07:00

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=103853&sid=29941739&con_type=1

Beth Ye and Tony Liaw Friday, October 15, 2010

Rumors that US billionaire Warren Buffett will take part in a share placement by China Rare Earth (0769) has raised hopes the firm may be the next to get the "Midas touch" after PetroChina (0857) and BYD (1211).

The rare earth and refractory products maker is selling 100 million new shares to raise HK$395 million, Reuters reported.
At HK$3.95 each, the offer is a 10 percent discount to the stock's last closing price of HK$4.39 on Wednesday.
An over-allotment issue of 20 million shares could boost the total amount HK$474 million. Analysts estimate CRE's share price to soar after it resumes trading because of the "Buffett effect."

"CRE's share price will rise in the short term if the rumors is true," said Kingston Lin King-ham at OSK Securities. "But it may not be as much as 30 percent or 50 percent as the stock has already risen a lot."

Lin does not recommend CRE as a long- term investment because it does not have its own rare earth mines.
CRE shares almost doubled from a month ago before being suspended from trading yesterday. PetroChina shares jumped over seven times between 2002 and 2007, and BYD's shares rose nearly seven times in the last two years after Buffett bought stakes.

Meanwhile, CASH Financial Services Group (0510) plans to raise HK$73.9 million by issuing 70 million shares through a top- up placement with its parent company Celestial Asia Securities Holdings (1049).
These shares will be placed at HK$1.07 per share - a discount of 9.32 percent to its previous closing price of HK$1.18. CFSG resumes trading today.

Value Partners (0806) will raise up to HK$1.2 billion by issuing 140 billion shares through a top-up placement. The asset management firm is offering the shares at between HK$5.68 and HK$5.93 apiece, a discount of 5 to 9 percent discount to yesterday's close of HK$6.24.

张志铭或是国美的灵魂？

2010-10-09T00:11:00.000-07:00

http://www.sino-manager.com/NewsShow.aspx?CurrDate=200936&PostID=2765

在许多熟悉国美发展的记者看来，黄光裕的成功可能更多是由于其运气比较好，而张志铭才是国美成功真正的幕后英雄和灵魂。2002年前当张志铭负责国美管理的时候，开启了国美发展的黄金时期。正是在这一阶段，国美开启了对外扩张的脚步，将原本只是北京市内的一个小家电商扩张到在国内拥有了巨大影响力的家电连锁巨头。“无论从开店速度，扩张地域，还是单店盈利，**声望等方面，1997年至2002年都是国美发展最好也是最健康的几年。”而自从张志铭离开国美管理岗位后，国美相对于苏宁的优势就在不断的缩小，并被逐渐的赶超。大家所说的国美地产的辉煌也其实是在张志铭的领导下取得的。

　　通过明天地产的运作，张志铭终于获得了属于自己的一块财富和天地。

　　张志铭或是国美的灵魂？

　　一个巨大的荒凉工地。站在国美广场正在建筑中的围墙外边，你只能有这样的感觉。但是你仍然可以感受到它的庞大。在北京市西南四环的拐角处，即使距离非常远，也可以看到矗立、相邻的两座巨型建筑，A栋和B栋如果围着转一圈足有一公里远。门窗仍未安装上去，可以看到一个个黑洞一样的窟窿。这两座曾经承载着黄光裕最大地产野心的建筑在这样一个多事冬天所呈现出的样貌，以及他们出事的老板，都让人担心，它们会不会沦落成两栋烂尾楼。事实上两栋楼已经盖了四年，仍然没有完工。一旁的小工停下手中的活计，担忧地说：“老板出事了，我们也不知道要怎么办。”

　　地产迷局

　　荒凉的国美广场见证了黄光裕在地产领域中的失策。

　　黄光裕的地产系统一直是外界猜测最多，人们感觉最为神秘的一块资产。外界很多猜测，认为黄光裕将做家电所获得的资金转移到利润丰厚的地产领域。但是事实不尽然，黄光裕的地产投资根本就算不上有多么成功。

　　“黄光裕本人酷爱地产，有多么酷爱呢？甚至大家感觉，假如让他把家电那块资产卖掉，全部投向地产，他也愿意。”一位前黄光裕旗下地产高管这样形容。

　　但是黄光裕这种酷爱也是经历过一个过程的。很早黄光裕就进入地产领域，那还是在1996年，在北京南二环投资了鹏润家园，盖了数座高层塔楼。但那却是一个非常惨淡的记忆。不但发生了与业主的流血纠纷，最终也不得不大幅降价两千元才将尾盘售出。

　　很长时间以来，对这段经历黄光裕都心有余悸，多次表示“房地产行业风险太大”，要将主要精力用在家电零售业的发展。

　　让黄光裕改变看法的是他的小妹夫张志铭所开发的国美第一城项目。当时黄光裕任命张志铭担任旗下鹏润房地产公司的总经理，而张志铭也憋足劲希望在地产这一新领域施展一番拳脚。在一次交易中，鹏润地产拿到了国美第一城这块地。但最初黄光裕并不看好这一项目，认为过于偏僻，打算转让出去，但张志铭执意要自己开发。最后黄光裕答应，但是提出不提供资金，让张志铭自己解决。通过种种办法，张志铭从某银行石景山支行拿到了1.6亿元人民币的贷款，缴纳了土地出让金。很快国美第一城预售开盘。第一天销售就极其火爆，由于比周边项目便宜近两千元，引来了大量买房客，不到半个月便预售了一千套，成功解决了资金问题。之后，国美第一城又相继推出后续几期，最终销售达到三十多亿元，一举成为当年北京市单体销售最大的楼盘。就这样，在几乎没获得什么资源的情况下，张志铭统领的鹏润地产获得了一次大胜。

　　在国美第一城销售成功之后，黄光裕试图收回控制权，此举受到了张志铭的*。以往对黄光裕俯首帖耳的张志铭第一次表现了自己的强硬。在与黄光裕大吵一架之后，两人最终妥协，并达成协议，黄光裕认可张志铭对鹏润地产的控制，公司股份调整为黄光裕占60%，张志铭占40%。但黄光裕不再对鹏润地产进行投资，同时不管理，不分红。

　　后张志铭又注册明天房地产公司，将鹏润地产的名称和品牌还给了黄光裕，并又成功开发明天第一城。此后在为黄光裕缴清数亿元利润后，明天地产摆脱了黄的控制，成为张志铭与黄燕虹夫妇拥有的企业，张志铭成功单飞。明天地产最新的地产项目为位于北京回龙观地区针对年轻人的“东亚上北”。

　　张志铭的成功对黄光裕刺激很大。再加上同期顺驰正在全国到处攻城略地，黄光裕开始急迫的想进入地产行业。他很快注册了三家地产公司，国美置业，鹏润昊天，鹏润尊爵，分别由禹晋永、吴发强，以及长期跟随黄光裕担当资本项目助理的李松波任总经理。

　　三家企业的旗舰为国美置业。05年5月份，国美置业以总价8.05亿元成功竞得北京市年度最大的招拍挂项目，位于西南四环总建筑面积达56万平方米的全商业地产项目，规划名为“国美商都”（国美广场的前身）。但这却成为了黄光裕地产事业的一个黑洞。特别是号称曾经的香港售楼冠军，师从地产营销之父邓智仁的童渊上任国美置业总经理之后。

　　原本，国美广场地块招标地价并不昂贵，仅两千多元一平米，如果再加两千余元的建安成本之后，只要每平米销售五千元就基本可以保本盈利，但是童渊却不满足，一定要追求一种大胜！为此制定了每平米三万元的天价销售。对为什么要制定如此昂贵的价格，童渊振振有词，多次当着黄光裕的面解说他的理由：“我只要凭借三个字就可以，这三个字就是‘黄光裕’，因为黄光裕是商业奇才，中国首富。”童渊相信依靠黄光裕的号召力，他可以取得远比别人高得多的品牌溢价。然而现实却并不如意，为了等待他的业绩，黄光裕给了他近两年的时间，却始终未见，最终失去了耐性，将他解雇。而国美广场在更换了四任总经理，三度更名之后，仍然以一个半拉子工程呈现在人们面前。更糟糕的是，项目已经消耗了黄光裕十多亿元的现金和大量精力。

　　黄光裕旗下地产业务比较成功的只有鹏润尊爵李松波开发的位于重庆的“鹏润蓝海”项目，这个总体量为60多万平方米的大型楼盘虽然在今年下半年也遭遇到了楼市的低迷。但自去年开盘之后至今已经销售过半，至少保证不会亏损。不过，李松波在开发成功“鹏润蓝海”之后很快便被调回北京，之后迅速离职。

　　对黄光裕的鹏润地产而言，如果业绩不佳还不算太糟糕的话，更糟糕的还是其自07年之后开始的大规模囤地行动（碧桂园的杨惠妍夺走中国首富的名号给予他极大的刺激）。为了以资产包的形式打包进入中关村科技（000931），使其资产看起来更具吸引力，自07年以来，黄光裕在全国开始了大规模的囤地行动。如07年底在无锡以58500万竞得竞标了电瓶车厂地块；08年初数亿元竞拍下重庆解放碑国泰广场项目；一个月后又以25.55亿元的价格获得天津华明镇一块43.3万平米的土地；此外还有鹏润昊天在07年花六亿多元拍卖收购所得的北京铁路文化活动中心和昌平沙河住宅项目。除这些拍卖项目外，黄光裕下属公司还分别在北京朝阳区崔各庄、通州宋庄、张家湾等地签署了数个一级地产开发协议，涉及开发总面积达到惊人的一亿多平方米。

　　当人们为碧桂园在地产高峰时期大量囤地而抹一把冷汗，并用脚进行投票的时候，黄光裕的鹏润地产似乎做得也同样不够高明。

　　家电变迁

　　黄光裕的地产业务不够成功，而在其赖以起家的家电连锁领域，黄光裕在管理等方面同样存在诸多问题。

　　1997年成立鹏润地产之后，由于将精力主要集中在地产领域，黄光裕曾经在管理上离开国美电器一段时间。那时的国美电器由张志铭任总经理，副手分别为李俊涛、何炬等。当时正是家电连锁的起步时期，“很长一段时间里，家电连锁领域很多人都不认识黄光裕。大家知道的只有三张，张近东，张继升和张志铭”。

　　恰恰是黄光裕不直接管理，而由张志铭管理，却是国美发展的黄金时期。正是在这一阶段，国美开启了对外扩张的脚步，将原本只是北京市内的一个小家电商扩张到在国内拥有了巨大影响力的家电连锁巨头。“无论从开店速度，扩张地域，还是单店盈利，**声望等方面，1997年至2002年都是国美发展最好也是最健康的几年。”不少国美内部人士都持这种看法。

　　但2002年黄光裕从地产项目上铩羽，然后回归国美，将总裁之位直接加到自己头上，然后国美内部就开始“折腾”起来了。不断的进行机构调整，人事不停变化，让所有人都有些人心惶惶，无所适从。黄光裕有句学习韩国三星公司的口号：国美永久不变的就是变化。

　　变化的第一刀是将整个国美体系由一个总部统一管理突然划分为南北两个大区分治。黄光裕的原意是想在企业内部形成竞争，但事实却是人为地把国美的规模优势，尤其是采购的规模优势降低了，还导致了机构设置的重叠。这一试验在实行5个月之后便告失败，然后重新恢复成一个总部模式。

　　然后黄光裕又心血来潮，在2002年下半年开始实行采购与销售机构脱钩。然而这又造成了采购部门与销售部门的互相对立、互相推卸责任。到04年8月，采销中心又最终合并。而这已经算是国美坚持时间最长的一次变革了。

　　黄光裕另一次曾被人广泛诟病的是鹏润电器的开办。受百思买高端电器店开业的刺激，黄光裕制订了“鹏润电器”做高端电子消费品为主大卖场的定位，并委托调查公司进行调研，最终得到的市场分析与黄光裕的预期“几乎一致”，于是鹏润电器开业。但由于鹏润电器独立于国美电器，所有产品的采购渠道都得靠自己去开拓，除了极少数“新、奇、特”产品外，真正高端产品也就在17％至18％左右，与国美旗舰店没什么两样。采购规模上不去，导致供货价格高，再加上销售业绩非常惨淡，坚持数个月之后鹏润电器不得不重归国美系统。

　　与这些机构变化相伴的还有不断的人事大变动。“黄光裕不会容忍一个有功劳的人，特别是立大功的人。”一位离职的国美高管说。“类似张志铭这样的有功之臣在国美内部频繁的人事调整中已经不止五起五落。这也是他下决心一定要离开的一个重要原因。”而在黄光裕的手下，曾经受重用而走红，后又离开的包括帮助奠定了国美连锁制度基础的何炬，以及曾红极一时，担任过国美常务副总裁的华天等。而目前在位的王俊洲、李俊涛等人更是像乘坐升降梯一样，不断地从高位贬职，然后又回复到原位，而他们相互间地位的排列更是不断的变动。与家电业务相比，黄光裕手下的地产业务领头者变幻的更加频繁，如今已经走马灯似的更换了包括禹晋永、吴坤岭、童渊、王军等四五任人选。

　　投资失误

　　当然，黄光裕也曾做过许多很漂亮的事情，比如运作国美在香港的上市。虽然也要归功于香港资本市场对家电连锁模式的追捧，虽然在买壳过程当中还遭遇到了香港壳王詹培忠的勒索，买壳价格远远高出市场价，但是黄光裕能够持续不断的套现135亿，绝对是其他人难以想象。

　　不过显然黄的对外投资并不佳，导致在套现如此之多现金之后，黄光裕居然面临到现金紧缺问题。自九月底以来，黄所控制的香港上市公司国美电器（00493，HK）连续遭到投资者的抛售，其股价距离峰值已跌去五分有四（截止停牌，其股价报收于1.12元）。

　　在国美股价如此暴跌中，作为国美实际控制人的黄光裕却没有做出任何实质性的补救。譬如进行适当的股权回购，以保持股价维持在一定价格区间之上。原因在于，黄光裕手头的现金并不宽裕。目前国美电器的总市值已经萎缩至150亿港元左右，甚至不比黄光裕历年从股市中套现的现金多出多少。通常，李嘉诚等富豪在其控股公司出现巨幅暴跌时都会对股价进行一定援救，极端情况下甚至会对公司实施私有化。

　　让我们来看看近年来黄光裕的对外投资。首先，收购大中电器。虽然当初公布的收购主体是国美电器集团委托北京战圣投资公司进行的，但知情者透露，其资金主要来自于国美集团实际控制人黄光裕。如今看来，36.5亿元现金收大中的代价确实有些偏高。即便大中电器今年的利润能够如国美所宣称的达到2亿元，以36.5亿收购价计算折算成市盈率也高达18倍，而目前香港上市的国美电器市盈率仅为6倍左右。这也意味着，如果现在黄光裕将大中电器装入香港上市公司国美电器中，与其收购价相比，黄将净亏20多亿元。

　　如果说收购大中电器虽然短期内财务上亏损，还可以视为一项长期的战略性投资的话，那么对三联商社（600898.SH）的收购亏空更加严重。

　　为了收购三联商社，黄光裕通过战圣投资拍卖竞购三联商社的股权，前后两次共花费6.7亿元现金，却仅仅获得19.7%的股权。而三联商社本身只是一个烂摊子，9家连锁店，仅有1家自有店面，并且大部分店面租约都接近到期。在公司治理方面也存在相当大问题。在充分了解之后，国美电器总裁陈晓称三联商社已经“烂到头了”，并且还存在“三联商社原大股东为了获取更大利益空间，占用上市公司资金，上市公司为集团违规担保”等问题。前三季度三联商社又亏损了4418.69万元。

　　也即，三联商社仅具有壳资源的价值。但是花费近7亿的现金仅仅购买一个烂壳说什么都难交代过去。一名三联商社的前高管表示，收购决定的那一刻更多是黄光裕的征服感在作祟，将一个原先平起平坐的公司收进来极大的满足了他征服的愿望。而这种征服感却是以花费数亿元人民币为代价的。

　　除这些之外，为入主中关村股份（000931.SZ），黄光裕通过旗下鵬泰投资收购中关村15%的股权。据有关统计，之后黄通过旗下鵬泰、鹏泽等公司通过回购资产等方式已累计向中关村输血9.1亿元，到现在仍无法重组成功。这可以被看作首富先生的又一个潜在的亏损。

　　在黄光裕的投资组合里，还有去年与如今已经破产的国际大投行贝尔斯登联合组建5亿美元的零售业投资基金，以及与新加坡太平星集团成立的总额达8亿美元投资房地产业的私募基金。虽然未见两只基金的消息，但在当前低迷的市道下，也很难有什么大的发展。

　　正是这些并不成功的投资，导致黄光裕在这个经济低迷、现金为王的时期里并没有手握更多的现金。在国美股价大幅下跌的情况下无所作为，只能收缩战线，无力大举扩张。

　　很显然，黄光裕的问题是其很多投资都是在资产估值高峰时期做出的。这显然犯了李嘉诚、巴菲特等财富大师一再告诫的要防止在高位买进的大忌。

　　黄光裕的最大问题还是在于他的自我膨胀。另一个前国美高层评论说：“黄光裕这个人真的是特别的聪明，而且小时候是苦出身，吃过很多苦，所以是个非常要强的人。在他内心里就是要不断的奋斗，就要做最强最棒的。而等他到了现在这样一个地位，他的心态就变得超级膨胀，认为自己已经无所不能。说一不二，任何事情，只有他自己拍板才是对的。别人拍板的，不经过他都不行。所以，在国美很少会出现敢于主动出头的人。就比如这次事件，很多人都不太敢出头，所以最初出的是一个所谓的七人委员会。”自我膨胀表现在黄光裕根本就没有耐心听别人讲太长的东西，总是嫌别人说的慢，经常指着人讲：“快说！”

　　一位曾接触过黄光裕的咨询界人士也认为，黄的问题主要是他太年轻了，而成功来得又那么轻易，必然导致他的自我膨胀意识。

　　黄光裕未实行下去的商业梦想

　　国美音像连锁：2006年黄光裕曾经计划在一年之内便在全国开设600家音像店，采用街面店、社区店和超大规模的旗舰店等，但最终这些计划很快便无疾而终。

　　国美医药连锁：2006年黄光裕和全球第一大医药连锁店美国Walgreens共同出资成立的国美医药股份有限公司计划投入20至30亿元资金，在全国打造国美医药门店。但由于药监局的认证方面的问题以及商业模式的质疑，最终项目撤销。

　　国美百货连锁：国美曾经试图以并购的方式进军百货行业，计划收购一家成熟的百货公司，然后以其为班底，再整合扩大，但因未能找到价格合适而业务又好的收购对象，最终不了了之。

　　鹏润家电：高端定位，最终失误。

　　电视购物：2006年国美曾表示试图进入电视购物系统，但未有具体行动。一个月前又重新提出这一业务方向，据说可以充分利用国美发达的店面网络系统进行销售和物流的配送。

贝恩竺稼夺命黄光裕揭黄氏家族内斗幕后秘密

2010-09-19T20:02:00.000-07:00

　http://news.hexun.com/2010-09-19/124951790.html

通过一系列的幕后操作,原本力挺陈晓的竺稼,突然秘密与黄氏家族接触。但随着中介投行团队与黄氏家族的翻脸,竺稼将怎样动作？黄光裕命运将如何？《证券市场周刊》记者独家采访黄秀虹、竺稼、华裔女商人、William??Je、尹锦诚等核心人物,揭开幕后秘闻。

　　“无赖。”9月14日下午5点,放下国美电器（00493.HK）大股东Shinning Crown Holdings

哈继铭等金牌人员出走中金宏观组台柱倾斜

8月热钱流动出现拐点

　　Inc（下称“SC”）董事黄秀虹的电话,香港五福资本（Mayfair Capital Ltd）董事长尹锦诚脱口而出。

　　尹锦诚头发花白,跟黄光裕是广东老乡。在国美电器董事会内斗中,尹锦诚的浮现是8月21日之后。从那时起,市场认为力挺陈晓的贝恩投资（亚洲）有限公司（下称“贝恩”）董事总经理竺稼,却与黄氏家族渐行渐近。

　　这背后,是一个庞大投行团队的运作,团队核心成员是麦格理银行和五福资本等。但当贝恩资本在北京某势力撮合下,与黄氏家族坐在谈判桌上时,投行团队却发现,自己被抛弃了。

　　“面对黄氏家族的背信弃义,我们只能感到遗憾。”麦格理资本（香港）有限公司大中华区副主席William??Je无奈地告诉记者,“没有诚信的人,我们以后拒绝合作。”

　　投行团队被边缘化了,贝恩将何去何从？而竺稼的态度,将决定黄氏家族的命运。

　　一份简短的授权书一个华裔女商人浮出水面

　　《证券市场周刊》得到的一份《授权书》揭开了黄氏家族内斗以来的幕后秘密。

　　身为SC董事的黄秀虹在8月21日代表SC签署了一份《授权书》,任命一位华裔女商人为SC的合法代理人,代表SC与金融机构就有关事宜进行沟通、谈判。

　　本刊记者通过调查了解到,华裔女商人生于20世纪60年代,是一位华裔富豪的长女,一直掌管其家族在中国内地的资产,其中地产资产已经超过80亿元。华裔女商人之前与黄氏家族并无交情,2009年,黄光裕的私人律师邹晓春通过中间人,希望能够就国美商都出售一事跟华裔女商人商洽。

　　国美商都出售一事未果,但在与陈晓的争斗中,华裔女商人却开始帮助黄氏家族。“当时我觉得黄氏姐妹很可怜,两个哥哥被抓了,现在陈晓夺权,所以我决定帮她们。”华裔女商人告诉本刊记者。

　　黄秀虹希望华裔女商人在两周时间内为黄氏家族拉到10％的票,并筹集25亿港元现金。华裔女商人则要求黄家出一份《授权书》,在征得黄光裕同意后,黄秀虹出具了上述《授权书》。

　　拿到授权书,华裔女商人马上开始行动。“我打电话给美林的副总裁Peter,我说你赶紧准备点钱。我又给瑞信打电话,瑞信说好,我给你去找。”令华裔女商人意想不到的是,美林很快给华裔女商人的答复是,“股票抵押要去登记,用自己的钱去买是关联交易,是犯法的。”

　　“美林还说贝恩我们是惹不起的,这个我们不能参与。”遭到美林拒绝后,华裔女商人心灰意冷,但是Peter却告诉华裔女商人,“在后面我们能组织一个团队帮你。”华裔女商人决定去香港。

　　15家国际投行拒绝我们不能为犯罪分子服务

　　8月22日,华裔女商人飞抵香港,一周时间内在香港跟15家以上大型国际投行高管进行了会谈。“国际投行都拒绝合作,原因是黄氏家族有多名是犯罪分子。”华裔女商人告诉本刊记者。国际大投行的拒绝令她始料未及。

　　华裔女商人到达香港后,与尹锦诚取得了联系。“她们（华裔女商人）家族实力雄厚,跟政界关系密切,在香港投行界颇有影响力,大家都给几分面子。”尹锦诚告诉本刊记者。

　　之后,尹锦诚与华裔女商人联手,马不停蹄地跟国际大投行接触,包括巴克莱、皇家苏格兰银行、花旗、美林、瑞银、瑞信、新加坡华侨、交通银行、澳纽银行、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、渣打、汇丰等投资银行。

　　转机出现在8月24日,尹锦诚与华裔女商人来到麦格理香港总部,见到了William??Je。在2009年的香港国际投行领域,业绩排名第一的瑞银和排名第三的摩根士丹利都拒绝了合作请求,麦格理排名第二。William??Je领衔的麦格理投行团队在2009年完成了11家公司在港上市工作,其中包括金隅股份、宝龙地产、民生银行等。2010年中最耀眼的莫过于担任农业银行香港上市保荐人兼账簿管理人。

　　当日,华裔女商人、尹锦诚与William??Je进行了商谈。商谈的具体内容为:第一、麦格理投行负责做出独立分析报告,独立对黄氏家族提出的五项决议案对国美电器发展的情况进行专业分析,包括分析投票支持黄氏家族五项议案的好处;第二、麦格理投行负责组成专业团队,对机构投资者及股东进行路演;第三、与黄秀虹保持联系、沟通、汇报。

　　麦格理投行出马星夜修订破冰策略

　　经常面带微笑的William??Je推了推眼镜,“也许一开始,我们就选择错了。”

　　尹锦诚与华裔女商人迅速组建了投行团队。尹锦诚首先想到的是老朋友三星证券投行总裁张忠良,希望能够一起合作,携手帮助黄家渡过难关。8月24日,华裔女商人一行在三星证券进行了路演,参与路演的三星证券高层有张忠良和Andric姚等人。

　　同一天,华裔女商人等人还在浩华会计楼拜访了Felix陈、Alex古,希望能够就黄氏家族股票抵押借款进行商洽。尹锦诚在给黄光裕写的一封信中称,“按照黄家的说法,你们需要更多的现金从市场上购买股票,只要你将国美的股票质押给我们,我们能够在3日内为你家族筹集30亿港币。”

　　尹锦诚在信中写到:“这样的安排需要良好的工作关系才能操作,而不是随便一家银行就能贷款,在目前的情况下,香港没有一家银行愿意借钱给你的,但我们能做到。”尹锦诚从1987年开始在香港金融圈闯荡,跟国际大投行相处融洽,找到William??Je合作,就是希望借助麦格理的影响力,让国际投行们感到黄家的真诚。

　　本刊记者得到的一份资料显示,华裔女商人一行拜访了许多国际投行,其中包括摩根士丹利、摩根大通、瑞银等,以及中银国际、交通银行等中资控股的香港投行。路演过程中,华裔女商人一行不厌其烦地介绍黄氏家族在获胜后,将重组董事会,把非上市门面店在低位注入上市公司,提升整体竞争力。

　　就在华裔女商人运作的同时,陈晓团队开始修订开店计划,希望以一份厚礼献给机构投资者。

　　得到消息后,华裔女商人立即改变战略,提出为了一改现任董事会在一级城市拼命开店、而不注重毛利率的状况,黄氏家族将在确保一级城市开店布局的基础上,向二三线城市扩张,提高毛利率。

　　在争取机构投资者投票支持黄光裕之外,华裔女商人告诉本刊记者,黄氏家族希望能够得到机构的资金支持。8月25日,投行团队到华侨银行Brian经纪去商洽股票抵押事宜。

　　8月25日下午,华裔女商人一行在麦格理总部开会讨论,讨论的主题是针对国美电器的股东清单,如何进一步有计划的路演来确保SC有10%-15％的投票支持率。会议争论很激烈,尤其是很多国际大行不愿意这个时候站出来力挺黄家,除了黄光裕是罪犯之外,更重要的是他们力挺黄家就意味着要站在与力挺陈晓的贝恩的对立面。

　　会议一直到晚餐时间还没有结果,晚餐后继续讨论。华裔女商人突然提出了一个大胆想法:由她代表SC与贝恩进行一次融冰之旅的接触与会晤,争取贝恩转股后所持9.98%的股权对SC的支持与和解。

　　华裔女商人的突发奇想令在场的人惊讶。贝恩进入国美电器,黄光裕本人都是相当清楚,在2009年夏天,竺稼与黄秀虹见面时,黄秀虹甚至提出让竺稼写一封信,承诺一年之内不转股,竺稼写了。但在2009年配股中,黄氏家族大举认购,留给贝恩的仅有0.2％,而当时贝恩可以稀释持仓成本将近100％,这让贝恩感到很不愉快。

　　2010年5月11日,黄氏家族突然投票要将贝恩董事赶出董事会,这样一来让贝恩感到莫明其妙。8月23日的国美电器业绩发布会上,竺稼联手陈晓宣布转股,参与9月28日的对决投票。

　　在投票之前,让竺稼与黄氏家族和解,这对于陈晓来说无异于釜底抽薪。

　　会议持续到凌晨一点半,结论是:和解对双方都有最大的好处,如果与贝恩接触,应该坚持贝恩同意黄家提出的新增两名董事,达到控制董事会的目的;贝恩在国美电器目前的状况下不能定向增发股票,阻止有人摊薄黄家股权比例的目的;希望贝恩从国美电器大局出发,双方牵手和解。

　　香港秘密会晤和谈提出五大条件

　　张忠良成为主导和解的首选人物。尽管是华裔,但张忠良出生于马来西亚贵族,拥有可以世袭的拿督爵位,现任三星证券投行部总裁,与竺稼私交甚笃。8月28日下午两点,在香港文华酒店,华裔女商人、张忠良与竺稼会面。

　　华裔女商人称,是次会面缘于投行的努力及北京某势力的合力。见面之前,北京某势力希望国美的事情不要长期闹下去,和为贵。

　　华裔女商人告诉记者,在会谈中竺稼一再表示,贝恩资本就是一个投资者,赚钱走人是真的,并没有想过要控制国美电器,更没有想过要清理黄氏家族在国美电器的股权。

　　本刊记者得到的一份华裔女商人签名材料中显示:会谈从大局利益着想,双方应该真诚合作,以尽早达成“内部斗争”事件的结束,贝恩希望SC的授权代表向黄秀虹转达5点友好愿望:

　　贝恩资本不是本次争斗的参与者,本次争斗与贝恩无关; 双方应在没有媒体聚光灯炒作的情况下友好协商解决;

　　请SC就麦肯锡公司做的国美电器未来5年发展计划进行补充,提出更好的发展设想; 贝恩不同意在现今的情况下再次增发股票,这样对公司及全体股东都不利;

　　贝恩同意黄家重新再任命两名董事进董事会,黄家要同意贝恩保持三名董事。

　　会谈结束的当晚,华裔女商人飞回北京。一份William??Je签字的文件上显示,8月28日晚上,华裔女商人与William??Je在北京盘古七星酒店开会,研究向黄秀虹汇报的工作,以及麦格理投行为SC下一步工作计划的汇报。

　　当天晚上的会议持续到凌晨2点。8月29日早上,华裔女商人电话请示黄秀虹,约定William??Je跟黄秀虹见面开会的时间。由于黄秀虹人在深圳回不来,之后见面约在9月5日。William??Je当天飞回香港。

　　本刊记者得到的一份签名报告显示,8月29日早上的电话中,黄秀虹希望华裔女商人尽快转告贝恩,在当天晚间国美召开的董事会议上,不要通过增发股票的决议。因为黄氏家族一直担心陈晓突然启动增发程序,稀释黄氏家族持股比例,尤其是在8月27日发出通告,一旦启动增发,黄氏家族将同价位基础上提价5%参与认购。

　　“黄氏家族那个时候根本没有资金,如果真有潮汕老乡或者其他资本变现,那么黄氏姐妹不会一再要求在香港通过股票质押去融资。”一位投行高层透露,黄氏家族在大陆的融资机会并没有想象的那么乐观,他们之所以做出提价5％认购的通告,是在虚张声势。

　　8月29日晚上的国美电器董事会上,讨论的重点是黄氏家族意欲收回非上市门面店,整个过程并没有讨论增发问题。华裔女商人的短信显示,当时她得到竺稼的回复,董事会没有讨论增发,让黄秀虹放心。

　　贝恩打来电话国美独董深圳有约

　　9月4日,友好合作骤起波澜。

　　一份签字文件显示:9月1日,华裔女商人应黄秀虹指示,与在美国的竺稼进行了电话会议,确定9月4日竺稼飞抵香港,并安排华裔女商人以及黄家代表会面商谈。9月4日早晨,华裔女商人再飞香港。

　　“4日当天是周六,黄秀虹要做礼拜,我们就约在6日见面。”华裔女商人告诉记者。

　　9月5日,华裔女商人接到了贝恩方面的来电,以为是竺稼最后敲定见面细节,没想到电话中,贝恩方面的人称,“黄秀虹约我们周日深圳见,不是你约的,是独立董事陈玉生约的,下午见的。”

　　华裔女商人当时懵掉了,不过跟竺稼的见面还得继续下去。9月5日晚上9点,在香港柏宁酒店会议室,竺稼带着经理张亮来了。“说黄家不要你了,绕过你跟我们接触的。”华裔女商人说,一开始贝恩的人就这么告诉她,她感到事情有些不妙。

　　当天晚上的会谈还是如期进行,贝恩方面再次细化了8月28日的五项愿望,强调双方要想解决问题达成和解,必须是在没有媒体的炒作下进行,取消9月28日的特别股东大会投票对双方都有利,这样双方可以在近期内尽快达成和解协议。当然,会谈中贝恩再次表明同意更换黄家两名新董事进入董事会。

　　尹锦诚等人对9月5日突如其来的变故开始怀疑,因为黄秀虹给华裔女商人的只有一纸授权书,没有书面顾问合同,对于投行团队来说,这简直是一种冒险。“他们直接绕开授权人跟贝恩见面,这个没有错,关键问题是投行的一切努力被人抛弃了。”尹锦诚的话很是委婉。

　　9月6日下午,William??Je、尹锦诚、华裔女商人等多人在场,给黄秀虹打电话。“开始她还不承认,说我没去深圳啊,我没见贝恩啊。我说贝恩的人都跟我说了。”华裔女商人告诉本刊记者,结果双方在电话中开始了争吵。

　　本刊记者见到尹锦诚时,他很无奈。“路演的关系是我介绍的,William??Je以及张忠良跟我都是老朋友,没有我引见,竺稼能够跟黄氏家族的人走到今天？”

　　分道扬镳恶语相加到底是谁在玩弄谁？

　　“别理她,就是一骗子。”9月14日,在电话中,黄秀虹提起这个华裔女商人就颇感不爽。

　　为什么9月5日会突然变卦呢？黄秀虹在跟本刊记者第一次通话的过程中强调,跟华裔女商人的授权在9月5日那天已经到期,现在华裔女商人依然拿着授权到处找事。

　　“我跟她认识是通过朋友介绍的,她说给我们介绍专业的团队。结果我从头到尾一个人都没见到。我跟竺稼就没见过。我给的授权要都要不回来了,我一想都是朋友,还有几天就到期了。我们之间互相就没有承诺。”黄秀虹说,她给华裔女商人授权后就见过一次面。

　　9月15日晚上,身在香港的竺稼跟本刊记者电话,身为事件当事人,竺稼并不讳言跟张忠良多年的交往,以及在香港跟黄氏家族授权代表华裔女商人的会谈,也不讳言在深圳跟黄氏姐妹的会晤,为了国美电器的大局,一切都可以谈判。

　　黄氏家族与投行团队翻脸的根源在于邹晓春。黄秀虹说,“她说帮助我们做专业性的工作,我说邹晓春跟你一起去行不行,她说行,结果邹晓春去了她就不见他,给他锁到酒店里。”

　　从黄秀虹与华裔女商人的短信交往看,黄秀虹甚至真的忘了她签署的授权日期到9月3日,甚至在本刊记者采访时,她依然认为是9月5日到期。所以她在9月6日可以理直气壮地说见贝恩与投行团队的运作无关。

　　华裔女商人告诉记者,邹晓春确实去了香港,但是她对邹晓春的不信任早在2009年的时候就产生了,具体原因却轻描淡写地带过去了。华裔女商人说,“有一天我跟三星证券投行总裁谈的时候,黄秀虹电话就打过来了,打了半个小时,质问我为什么不带邹晓春。我说秀虹,法规部不批之前不能让你黄家接触,你接受也得接受,不接受也得接受。因为2008年金融危机之后,各大国际投行的诸多事务,一定要法规部批准。”

　　9月13日晚,本刊记者见到了William??Je,提起这一次帮助黄家运作他就感觉到无奈。尹锦诚义愤填膺:“在没有任何顾问合同的情况下,频繁去国际大投行路演,让投行们投黄家的赞成票,有这样的骗子吗？”

　　讨价还价2600万美元降价至2000万美元 2600万美元,这个数字是本刊记者在采访中听到的,是投行顾问费。

　　“我们和你的对手贝恩总部的高管在香港开会,并成功地说服他们站在我们这边,这是一个巨大的突破。”尹锦诚在给黄光裕的信中写到,“听说黄家愿意拿出2600万美元,付给能够帮助他们赢得9月28日表决的人,然而,8月28日之后,好像一切都变了。”

　　2600万美元报酬的问题第一次出现在签名函件之中。华裔女商人告诉本刊记者:“在跟香港投行们接触之前,黄秀虹说,赢了以后你要多少钱？她怕我狮子大开口。我说你跟二哥黄光裕都得确认,三家投行各给800万,我这边还有律师得给200万。”

　　“支付2600万美元的目的就是要拿到10%的支持。我说好,你去让二哥确认。我去通知人家,必须告诉人家黄光裕是同意的。”华裔女商人说,谈论报酬的当天,黄家的律师就去了看守所,回来说黄当时觉得挺贵,但后来还是同意了。

　　华裔女商人告诉本刊记者,在自己动身前,2600万美元报酬敲定了,“黄秀虹说你去办吧,我们这么大的家族说话是算数的。”事情的转折点也就发生在8月28日,那天张忠良等人跟竺稼会谈后,华裔女商人非常高兴地给黄秀虹打电话,说黄家现在已经赢了。

　　“跟贝恩和解,那么就减少了很大的路演成本,这个时候黄秀虹希望能够降一点报酬,最后协商的结果是砍掉600万美元,变成2000万美元。”华裔女商人给记者出示了一份报酬分配的草图,尽管是手写的,依然能够看清楚最后2000万美元的分配去向。

　　9月5日的深圳会面,一切都变了。“不要听她胡说八道,说带哪个总裁跟我见,根本就没有。”黄秀虹提起之前的种种,电话中语气表现得相当气愤。因为这一天,黄氏姐妹与竺稼确实见面了,会谈的内容依然是之前的五项,而正是这一天,在黄秀虹的印象中《授权书》到期。

　　9月9日晚间,黄秀虹通过短信的方式给华裔女商人下达了通知:我正式通知你,我给你的委托到九月五日已到期,请你不要再拿着过期的授权书跟任何人谈事。

　　当晚的另一条短信中称:“我希望你尽快回京来和我当面沟通,不要再拿着过期的授权书到处找人了,我们的事情你也说过九月五日前办不了也不办了。我给你的授权也只是到九月五日。做事得讲规则,不能我行我素!”

　　钱呢？没有了。五福资本、麦格理、三星证券等投行自然也就没有了报酬。

　　一段录音证据显示,黄氏家族的律师代表并不否认之前关于报酬的约定,只是希望华裔女商人能够证明贝恩跟黄家走到一起,是投行团队运作之功,诺言就可以兑现。关键人竺稼在跟记者电话时透露,因为黄氏家族拿着贝恩2009年的承诺,率先发难,这让两家关系渐行渐远,确是在张忠良等老朋友撮合下,才跟黄家授权代表坐下来商谈。

　　“患难见真情,我们是在黄家最需要帮助的时候站出来的人,我相信,只要真的付出就一定有相应的报酬。”尹锦诚在给黄光裕的信中写到,“我们努力不懈,几乎无眠地为黄家在香港寻求帮助,我们是有能力而又讲原则的人,我们只希望通过我们的努力工作达到黄家的要求后,拿到你们承诺的回报,不多,也不少。”

　　9月14日,在北京的一个房间,尹锦诚在给黄光裕的中英文信件复印件上,亲笔签署了自己的英文名字,将信函复印件递给了《证券市场周刊》。贝恩资本左右摇摆

　　绝杀钢刀在竺稼之手9月13日,竺稼在北京与黄光裕之妻杜鹃见面。

　　“竺稼说,作为国美电器的股东,他跟杜鹃的见面只是礼节性的拜访。”国美电器一位高管层告诉本刊记者,杜鹃保释后,国美电器多位高管已经去拜访过杜鹃,所以竺稼跟杜鹃的见面他们并没有感觉到有什么不一样的地方。

　　贝恩跟黄氏家族授权代表秘密会谈,并且达成重要的五条协议,这让国美电器董事会感到震惊。本刊记者了解到,9月13日的会面,竺稼跟杜鹃讨论的话题依然围绕8月28日达成的五点共识。会谈中,双方纠结的问题依然在于陈晓的退出,黄氏家族要求陈晓一定要退出,竺稼认为陈晓退出,管理团队发生动荡,股价要下跌,不符合股东们的利益。

　　竺稼跟杜鹃的谈判依然没有进展,可是留给双方的时间已然不多。国美电器9月8日公告称,9月24日至28日将暂停办理股份过户登记。9月23日为香港公众假期,所有股份过户登记必须在9月22日下午4时30分前完成。

　　竺稼在8月23日国美电器中期业绩会上公开表示,贝恩计划在9月28日特别股东大会前将所持可转债券全部转股。9月15日晚上,国美电器宣布,已经收到贝恩通知,将在9月20日转股,贝恩将持有国美电器9.98%股权,黄光裕持股权将被摊薄至32.47%。

　　近日,两大全球独立股东顾问机构——Glass Lewis和ISS（International Shareholders

　　Service）分别发布报告,建议股东投票支持国美电器管理层。 Glass Lewis为管理总计17万亿美元资产的机构投资者提供研究和顾问服务。Glass

　　Lewis表示,持异见者未能证明其提名的董事候选人有任何优势来取代现任董事,并对黄光裕在已被判入狱的情况下,仍选择作为股东活跃分子的身份感到不解。

　　拥有1700名机构投资者客户的ISS也建议股东投票支持管理层。ISS在报告中指出,邹晓春提出的计划并不比公司现有管理层提出的计划更好,或者更令人信服。ISS建议股东支持陈晓和孙一丁,反对邹晓春和黄燕虹的提名,并支持再次选举贝恩的三位董事。

　　本刊记者了解到,竺稼在跟黄氏家族授权代表以及黄家人会谈的时候,贝恩的退出也是关键问题。在欧美,像贝恩这样的资本回报要求都在3倍以上,那么黄氏家族如何保障国美电器股价上涨到4港元多呢？

　　从本刊记者了解的情况看,黄氏家族承诺将非上市门面店注入上市公司,这样一来就会在门店总数超过竞争对手苏宁电器（002024.SZ）,国美电器的股东们以及投资者,立即就可以享受资产注入带来的高收益。William??Je团队在路演的时候,也将这一点告诉了机构投资者们。

　　资产注入是一张废牌。

　　本刊记者了解到,商务部对黄氏家族将非上市门店转入上市公司的审批相当谨慎,因为上市公司是外资,非上市门面店是内资,黄光裕身陷牢狱,将内资资产变成外资资产,这样的后果令曾经身陷黄光裕案的商务部法条司官员心有余悸。“我们尝试过装入上市公司,商务部谁敢批？”一位国美高层说,“闹不好就是个向海外转移资产,这个很麻烦。”

　　竺稼跟黄氏家族合作,如果不取消9.28的特别股东大会,那么竺稼就面临投票的抉择。本刊记者了解到,8月23日国美电器业绩发布当天,贝恩给国美电器董事会写了一封信,明确表示参与投票,赞成临时股东大会表决项中的前三项,反对后五项。

　　跟黄氏家族谈判之后,竺稼希望双方和平解决,对大家都有好处,那么竺稼会转身投黄家的赞成票？那样一来,竺稼就成为董事会的背叛者,这样的结果自然令黄氏家族满意,那么竺稼之前力挺陈晓的行为就会变成一场闹剧。

　　如果竺稼弃权,也就不会得罪董事会,也变相地帮助了黄家,不过竺稼依然会被推上道德的审判台,因为8月23日的业绩发布会上,竺稼力挺董事会,甚至有一封承诺信,到了关键时刻弃权,也只能说明他背叛董事会。

　　“他真那样,那可就离间了管理层跟大股东,成为国美电器真正的罪人。”国美电器一位内部人士认为,竺稼无论是跟黄家和解,还是投弃权票,那么他支持董事会反对黄家的行为,就起到了离间的效果,国美电器的所有投资者都成了受害者。

　　竺稼也好,贝恩也好,他们是黄光裕的夺命者。

（来源：证券市场周刊)

Hedge fund stars shine above the crowd

2010-09-17T05:48:00.001-07:00

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/981a7710-bcff-11df-954b-00144feab49a.html

By James Mackintosh, Investment Editor
Published: September 10 2010 18:37 | Last updated: September 11 2010 00:24

George Soros has been the public face of the hedge fund industry since long before he made $1bn forcing sterling out the European exchange rate mechanism. The total money his Quantum fund has earned for clients, though, has rarely been discussed – and is extraordinary.

According to new research, the 80-year-old Mr Soros has produced $32bn for his customers since setting up in 1973, an average of over $900m a year. Put another way, Mr Soros and his team of 300 have made their investors more than the total earnings of Apple, which employs 34,300, or Alcoa, one of America’s 30 largest manufacturers.
When it comes to the hedge fund mantra of “absolute returns”, Mr Soros is leader of the pack.

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But the top 10 most successful managers have between them generated almost $154bn since they were founded, with even the number 10 – Eddie Lampert’s ESL – making more than British Airways earned over the same period.
Rick Sopher at Edmond de Rothschild Group, chairman of Leveraged Capital Holdings, which has been investing in hedge funds since 1969, said the findings of his research demonstrated the trading skills of the best managers. The top 100 made more than three-quarters of all returns for investors since they were founded, in an industry of about 7,000 managers.
“There are these great managers who made tons of money but among the other 7,000 there’s a lot of disappointment,” he says.
Measuring hedge fund returns is complicated by the fact that investors tend to be flighty, flocking to funds which have done well and selling out after losses. As a result, investors miss out on much of the dazzling percentage returns that make the headlines.
Ilia Dichev at Atlanta’s Emory University and Gwen Yu of Harvard, in a forthcoming paper, have found that actual returns to investors are three to seven percentage points lower than headline returns. Since 1980, the average hedge fund annual return was 12.6 per cent. But, weighted for investment flows, the average investor received only 6 per cent, they found, well below equity returns and not much better than bonds.
Something similar happens with mutual funds, where investors tend to pick managers based on recent performance, which often does not last.
But Mr Sopher says hedge funds have more responsibility to ensure their clients benefit than mutual funds.
“The hedge fund industry justified its high fees by making money for investors, not by providing access to asset classes in the way mutual funds do.”
The top 10 managers are mostly older funds, typically dating back to the early 1990s or before, and all but one is US-run. One caution on the data is that low-return funds were excluded, and the opaque industry could conceivably have hidden funds which should have made the list.
Older funds have not just had more time to generate profits. Over the past decade the rise of institutional investors in the sector has led managers to reduce risk, damping returns.
Take Bruce Kovner, founder of Caxton Associates, whose Caxton Global fund came in at number four with $12.8bn of profits for investors since 1983. His returns and volatility both dropped dramatically at the end of the 1990s.
The best years are not necessarily behind the top funds, though. Mr Soros has had a sparkling crisis, returning to the form that saw him produce an annual average above 30 per cent from the 1970s to 2000.
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co famously made more money in a single year than any investor ever, thanks to its prescient bet against subprime mortgages. And the upstart on the list, Brevan Howard, founded just seven years ago, shot to fame and became Europe’s biggest hedge fund thanks to its returns during the crisis. These returns mean that over its short life it had the highest profits of any fund per year, at $1.8bn, although Mr Soros’s returns would be far higher if adjusted for inflation.
Alan Howard’s Brevan is the only British-managed fund in the top 10, although he and much of his team recently relocated from London to Geneva.
Nagi Kawkabani, co-chief executive of Brevan, says that until the economic outlook becomes clearer, it is likely that returns for all funds will be depressed.
“Anyone who thinks they can consistently achieve more than 600-700 basis points [6-7 percentage points] over cash without taking a very large amount of risk or leverage is probably unrealistic,” he says. “If money making opportunities were obvious, [interest] rates would not be zero.”
David Tepper, whose Appaloosa Management was ranked seventh, says it is hard to decide which way the economy is heading, and, as a result, he is keeping his fund heavily hedged, with 10 per cent in cash.
“This is a time when reasonable people are so confused,” he says. “The analysis is very fine right now.” But he says the most likely outcome is that the US economy muddles through.
Mr Paulson, who has been buying gold and banks in the expectation of an inflationary recovery, disagrees. “We are as excited now as we have ever been about investment opportunities,” he said. “Markets have fallen to a point that has created a historic moment to buy very high quality assets at distressed levels.”
If Mr Paulson is right, hedge funds will soon be raking in profits – and fees. Assuming they charged 20 per cent (some charge more), the total performance fees of the top 10 funds have been close to $40bn.
Every way of looking at performance is flawed, and an exclusive focus on dollar profits would be misleading. As an analysis tool, though, it puts absolute return back where it should be: at the heart of hedge fund management.

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路翔股份锂矿投产王传福表兄弟参股49%

2010-09-16T17:48:00.001-07:00

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/20100916/17178670099.shtml

经济观察网记者张晓晖 2010年9月15日，路翔集团股份有限公司(路翔股份(45.64,4.15,10.00%))于一年前花费7310万收购而得的四川省甘孜州康定呷基卡锂辉矿项目终于“开花结果”。

　　“这是世界上第二大(保有储量世界第一)的锂辉石矿，也是亚洲第一大的锂辉石矿，同时也海拔最高的锂辉石矿。”路翔股份称，“该矿的顺利投产，将对中国乃至国际锂市场产生深远影响，将打破国内锂业冶炼深加工企业依赖进口锂精矿的现状，将为中国锂业在国际市场获得更多的话语权作出重要贡献。”

　　据悉，路翔股份的康定呷基卡锂辉石矿项目被放入为一家名为融达锂业的公司旗下。

　　其中路翔股份控股51%，广州融捷投资管理集团有限公司(下称“融捷集团”)持有剩余49%的股权，融捷集团实际控制人为吕向阳，为比亚迪股份有限公司(比亚迪股份，01211.HK)的第二大股东，也是比亚迪股份董事长王传福的表兄弟。

　　9月15日下午，记者来到距离康定县城数十公里外，海拔达到4400米的锂辉石矿挖掘现场，由于地处藏区，融达锂业雇佣了不少当地藏民作为保安和工厂职工。

　　巨大的锂辉矿石在这里先被爆破、再用挖掘机破碎，最后用选矿机器分解，最终细化提炼为锂辉精矿粉。

　　当地政府——甘孜州政府对融达锂业的锂辉石矿项目进行了竣工验收。

　　由甘孜州州委副书记王亚光、州政府副州长阿多、州政府副州长兼发改委主任张平森、路翔股份兼融达锂业董事长柯荣卿组成的验收委员会一致认为：“康定呷基卡融达锂业锂辉石矿项目符合建设程序，工艺技术水平先进，符合设计要求，符合国家及相关法律法规、规范要求，工程质量合格，投资合理，档案管理规范，同意通过验收并投入生产。”

　　验收委员会还认为：康定呷基卡融达锂业锂辉石矿的投产，标志着亚洲最大的固体锂辉石矿成功实现规模化生产，将是锂电新能源产业发展的里程碑，也标志着我国锂电材料市场格局将发生根本性的积极变化。

　　锂被列为“21世纪的清洁能源”，是电动汽车电池及储能堆不可或缺的原料，随着新能源产业和新材料经济的日益兴起，锂更将成为稀缺资源。

　　2010年9月8日，国务院发布了《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》，明确“新能源、新材料和新能源汽车”为战略性新兴产业，并将成为我国国民经济的先导产业和支柱产业。

　　据悉，康定呷基卡锂辉石矿在被融达锂业收购之前，曾数度易手，命运多舛。

　　90年代中期，解放军黄金勘探队伍在康定呷基卡发现锂辉石矿；后此锂辉石矿上建立起一家名为鹰航锂业的公司；

　　2000年初，鹰航锂业被中信国安(14.14,-0.26,-1.81%)买下，但此时固态锂辉石矿在开采成本上无任何竞争优势；2000年代中期的时候，康定呷基卡锂辉石矿一度关停，中信国安将该矿的部分股权转让给四川矿业；直到2009年，路翔股份与融捷集团共同出资设立融达锂业，将呷基卡锂辉石矿收入囊中，恢复了采矿资格，并购入了长达30多年的采矿权。

　　目前世界上关于锂电池原料碳酸锂的提取，有两种方法，分别为盐湖卤水提取和锂辉矿石提取，由于位于南美的世界前三大锂原料供应商，均采用盐湖卤水提取法，因此，融达锂业的固态锂辉矿石提取法，其成本相比较而言，可能会更高。

　　董事长柯荣卿认为，这个工艺不是大问题。

　　随着近年来锂原料价格的上涨，就算锂辉石矿提取碳酸锂，也已变得有利可图。

　　路翔股份称，公司还计划在泸定县修建一座锂盐厂，用作锂原料的深加工，并计划在当地打通锂矿采选——基础锂盐——锂电材料的锂电产业一体化的产业链。

　　这个计划得到了当地政府的鼎力支持，并被认作是甘孜州百亿矿业发展规划的重要支撑，进而成为甘孜州委州政府打造“锂都”概念的核心力量。

　　此外，在融达锂业的项目上，以49%股份参股的融捷集团也较为引人注目。该公司为锂电能源专业制造商比亚迪股份的持有者，融捷集团的实际控制者吕向阳，于1995年出资250万元和他从中国有色金属研究总院301室副主任离职下海的表兄弟王传福一起创办了比亚迪公司。

　　由于融捷集团一向行事低调，公众对吕向阳本人和吕向阳控制着的融捷集团，并不十分熟悉。

　　近年来，融捷集团在锂原料、钴原料等新能源、新材料等产业以及房地产行业、资本市场上投下巨资。

稀土资源争夺战

2010-09-13T21:40:00.000-07:00

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20100914/00098649956.shtml

稀土！稀土！

　　从地方到央企，从国内到国际，一场资源争夺战已经打响……

　　《中国经济周刊》记者曹昌董显苹 ●杨英
江西、广东、湖南报道

　　半年内国家总理给予13次批示，南方五省区15市联手监管稀土开发……一个产值不到400亿元的矿业，却成为了从国内到国际，地方到中央的热议话题。

　　稀土作为“现代工业的维生素”，中国以占全球30%左右的储量，一度“敞开大门”供应了国际95%以上的市场需求。在此背景下，中国提出了自己的产业发展战略，“指令性”开采、控制出口配额之后，量减价升，中国稀土不再卖成“白菜价”。

　　产业发展战略调整的背后，是国内稀土储量日益减少，是资源开发与环境保护产生了矛盾，是乱采滥挖带来了恶性竞争，至今，“盗采”、“超采”、“挑肥拣瘦”及“走私”等现象仍在治理之中……而伴随产业发展战略的调整，各种形式的“抗议”接踵而至，同时，还引发了地方国企与中央企业的纠葛，导致产业发展、稀土建储等诸多争端产生。

　　稀土话题持续“高烧”，部分敏感问题至今仍无明确答案。中国稀土储量有多少？中国需不需要限制出口？中国在挟稀土而操纵国际市场吗？中国稀土要不要国家储备？中国稀土的开采整治、产业整合、环境与资源保护情况如何……裹挟了各方利益与价值取向的稀土纷争，引起了众多业内人士、学者、官员甚至中央主要领导的密切关注。

　　8月，沿着中国稀土产业“路线图”，《中国经济周刊》记者深入江西、广东、湖南等稀土资源大省调查，试图还原稀土争端真相。

　　乱与治：

　　稀土主产地的疯狂

　　江西赣州，中国重稀土产量的主要来源地之一。

　　一脚踏进有“江西南大门”之称的赣州龙南县，“谁污染谁治理”、“促进稀土工业新发展”的横幅随处可见，崇山峻岭之间，一些像蜘蛛网的PVC管爬满山头。

　　下车上山。记者看到，在PVC管的一些接点处，有白色液体缓缓流出，液体顺水泥槽蜿蜒而下，最后汇入山脚的大池中。

　　“这个技术叫原地浸矿。”就稀土开采的“化学原理”，龙南县矿管局局长廖振楠解释，开采稀土矿时，往山顶灌入氨氮等化学溶液后，吸附在泥土(或岩石)上的稀土离子，遇到化学性质更活泼的离子时，便会被更活泼的离子置换出来。

　　将含稀土离子的液体提炼成稀土原料，还要经过沉淀、分离等数道工序。廖振楠称，原地浸矿法是国家“八五”科技攻关项目，并被要求在全国同类矿山推广。

　　这种技术，其实是龙南人在痛定思痛后的发明。

　　那时，稀土卖成了白菜价

　　原地浸矿法之前，南方“离子型”稀土矿开采主要方式为池浸、堆浸法，即砍树除草、搬山浸泡取稀土。龙南县委书记曾凡说，“‘搬山运动’所到之处，山体、森林造遭到极大破坏。”

　　在龙南、定南、宁都等县的青山绿水间穿行，池浸、堆浸过后的数处“黄土坡”格外醒目：山顶被削掉，变成了“秃子”；废弃了的浸矿水泥池，横躺在山腰……

　　“以前采矿，往往是‘猪八戒吃西瓜’——吃一半扔一半，稀土浪费严重。”定南县委书记钟炳明称，“搬山运动”所造成的“后遗症”，正待政府根治。

　　不仅是资源破坏严重，乱采滥挖等非法行为也成了地方政府的“心病”。

　　在“大矿大开、小矿小开、有水快流”的年代里，赣州矿管工作一度失控。2004年，赣州取缔、关闭稀土非法采矿点就达3000多个，捣毁浸矿池为2645个。

　　“重拳”还伸向了“官商勾结”。整治时期，赣州对多次为没有销售配额的稀土业主“放行”而私下收入“好处费”的数名执法干部给予重判，其中包括对龙南5个检查站30多名稽查人员的“一锅端”。

　　同时，乱采滥挖带来了恶性竞争，稀土卖成了“白菜价”。到上世纪90年代末，稀土对赣州的贡献为“负数”。

　　“那时，厦门钨业(34.89,-0.03,-0.09%)的客户来开会，只给了一万元一吨的价格，我们下面的人就争相开出九千九、九千八——像是只给丢了一块骨头，就疯狂扑了过去。”赣州市经委主任曹晓秋称，“那就是当年的赣州，守着金饭碗讨饭吃。”

　　现年56岁的曹晓秋，已在赣州钨与稀土行业摸爬滚打数十年。她告诉《中国经济周刊》，当初，因为“治乱”不力，她到工信部去开会，还没落座就被骂了个“狗血淋头”。“不过，赣州现在控制住了——我到工信部去，也有人给我搬凳子了——而别的地方仍在乱采滥挖。”

　　作为重要的战略性资源，稀土的乱采滥挖、产业无序发展、环境破坏严重、产品廉价出口等一系列问题曝出后，让国家开始出台铁腕政策。2007年，国家将稀土生产计划由“指导性”调整为“指令性”。曹晓秋认为，国家真正举起稀土产业的“手术刀”，正是发端于这一次“指导”改“指令”。

　　像管制毒品、黄金一样治稀土

　　在稀土“治乱”上，赣州“觉醒”得较早。

　　在其他一些地方仍处于“拳头打乌龟”——整治时“缩头”，整治后“伸头”的时候，2004年，赣州开始对稀土资源实行“四个统一”。

　　当年12月，赣州市将8个稀土资源大县的88个采矿证“化零为整”，由赣州市政府和这些县以股份制方式，联合组建赣州稀土矿业公司(下称“赣州稀矿公司”)，对该市稀土资源统一开采，稀土矿山生产统一管理，稀土矿产品统一经营，以及稀土工业统一招商。

　　赣州稀矿公司副总经理谢志宏解释，握有采矿权证的赣州稀矿公司通过劳务承包形式，把采矿工作承包给个人或企业，在地方政府的全程监管下，稀土原料交回赣州稀矿公司统一管理与定价销售。并且严令禁止未经三级以上加工的稀土产品外流。

　　“以前，初级产品还可在市场自行交易，现在紧得很，分离企业的初级产品全部由赣州稀矿公司回购。”定南南方稀土公司副总经理林锂德称，即使赣州稀矿公司给出的价格低于自行找来的买家开出的价格，但是，“你的原材料由赣州稀矿公司支配，不卖给他怎么行？”

　　通过手握稀土产业链条上每一张“王牌”，赣州稀矿公司的“集权”催发了地方经济发展的“大跃进”。

　　2004年，赣州稀土和钨土两个产业仅实现产值10亿元，仅仅5年过后的2009年，赣州钨和稀土两个产业就实现销售总额150亿元，形成了硬质合金及刀钻具、稀土永磁材料及永磁电机、稀土发光材料和新型光源三大基地。

　　赣州计划是，下一个五年，两大产业要从“百亿”往“千亿”上“跳”。

　　“赣州模式”一度被前来检查的官员称为“管理稀土比管理毒品、黄金都更严格”。8月10日，南方五省(广东、福建、江西、湖南、广西)稀土开发监管联席会议在广东河源召开。会上，赣州做的是“经验性发言”，其他地方则是“表态性发言”。

　　“一个矿乱频繁的地方，经济不可能得到大发展！”曹晓秋称。

　　“吃不饱”：稀土企业靠外地“走私”？

　　在赣州市下辖的龙南县，10多家稀土工业企业2009年实现20多亿元产值，从事稀土冶炼与分离的4家企业生产能力为6500吨。

　　而近年，国家每年给赣州稀土生产下达的指令性指标是8500吨左右，赣州每年给龙南的指标为3000吨左右。

　　这意味着，龙南的冶炼分离企业每年存在3500吨左右的缺口。

　　“吃不饱”的问题还存在于赣州的另一个稀土工业大县定南县。近年，赣州给定南的指标约每年在800吨～1400吨之间。而在《中国经济周刊》记者的调查中，地处定南的大华新材料公司和南方稀土公司，这2家企业开足马力就需近5000吨/年的原材料。

　　不仅如此。在赣州60多家稀土加工企业中，16家冶炼分离企业产能就超过年3万吨，8500吨的开采指标显然不能满足这些企业的“胃口”。同时，赣州刚过“百亿”的两大产业与“千亿”理想路途遥远，限额政策下，赣州稀土的供求关系越来越紧张。

　　缺口如何补足？

　　赣州一些业内人士“指点迷津”：大部分从福建、广东、广西等地“走私”而来。

　　稀土“走私”的现象已经引起各地政府重视，据《中国经济周刊》记者了解，仅今年5月下旬至今，福建上杭关闭取缔36家非法稀土矿开采点；广西平南县亦对4个反复非法开矿点进行了铲除，摧毁堆浸池63个；广东河源市关闭非法开采稀土矿点6个……

　　“说实话，在赣州，我们不可能介入到外地执法。对于原材料，我们的冶炼分离企业也搞不清具体来自哪里。”赣州稀矿公司副总经理谢志宏坦陈。

　　没有任何保障的“非法矿源”，显然不能支撑赣州稀土产业的可持续增长。“对于低层次、原料级别的企业，我们‘不欢迎’。”谢志宏称，“我们唯一能做的是，将产业链延长、延长、再延长！”

　　各稀土主产地乱象仍存

　　目前，从赣州以外的各省区生产地情况看，稀土开采之乱仍未得到有效整治。

　　除非法采矿外，稀土屡禁难绝的有“超采”、越界开采、“挑肥拣瘦”式开采等，实际开采量往往是国家下达的指令性计划的数倍。例如2007 年，国土资源部给南方稀土企业下达指令性限额开采量不到9000吨，但统计数据却达到4.5 万吨。

　　今年5月，国土资源部副部长汪民在全国稀土等矿产开发秩序专项整治行动会议上指出，稀土等矿产陷入整顿、反复、再整顿的“怪圈”，一大要害是宏观调控政策政令不通，一些地方不严格执行开采总量控制指标，实际产量远远超出国家指令性计划。受地方、部门利益驱动，非法开采、乱采滥挖现象屡禁不止，既严重干扰市场，又严重破坏资源环境。

　　一方面是指令，一方面是市场。外界认为，稀土资源高度集中后，以地方政府既当“裁判”又当“运动员”的身份，怎么“治超”、怎么有效管理资源、地方经济发展与国家利益怎么更好结合，这都需要探索。

　　“割据”与“整合”：

　　跨区域的资源争夺战

　　同为“稀土王国”，与赣州的“强势政府”比较，湖南稀土选择了另外的路径。

　　湖南稀土也以重稀土为主，分布较散，主要集中于郴州、永州、岳阳等地，民企、国企、当地矿务局三方均有参与开采。

　　湖南也是有色金属之乡。此前，因湖南郴州等地治矿不力，加之湖南有色金属龙头企业湖南有色金属控股集团有限公司(下称“湖南有色”)对本省有色金属产业整合乏力，湖南“拱手”将资源转让给了央企——2009年底，湖南有色与中国五矿签署了股权转让协议。湖南有色原为湖南省国资委控股，拥有钨、锑、铅、稀土等资源，转让后的湖南有色由中国五矿控股，持股比例超过51%。

　　“本地无先知”，对中国五矿寄予“厚望”的还有郴州、永州两市。近年，当地政府亦相继与中国五矿签订战略合作协议，支持后者整合当地稀土资源，而后者则许以投资承诺。

　　“我们从未停止在江西、湖南、广东等地寻找合适的稀土并购项目！”中国五矿高层曾多次表示，希望进一步成为全国稀土领域的龙头。

　　由中国五矿整合南方稀土产业，似乎也得到了国家的支持。

　　根据工信部制订的《2009—2015年稀土工业发展规划修订稿》，包钢稀土(70.20,-0.90,-1.27%)、中国五矿、江西铜业(33.88,-0.19,-0.56%)被列为国家整合稀土行业的三家龙头企业。

　　有业内人士分析认为，这三大阵营的整合将直指向中国稀土“重心”所处的北、南、西三个方向：北方以轻稀土为主，主要集中在内蒙古包头市白云鄂博铁矿，属伴生矿。南方以重稀土为主，较为分散，分布在江西、湖南、广东等地。另外，西部稀土以氟炭铈矿为主，主要集中在四川冕宁。

　　稀土产业正上演“三国演义”，目前进展是：北方，包钢稀土已形成绝对垄断；西部，四川稀土被江西铜业(占56%股份)拿下；南方稀土相对分散，但也各有其主，广东稀土掌握在广晟有色(实际控制人为广东国资委)手中，湖南稀土已由中国五矿掌控，而江西稀土则牢牢撑控在赣州稀矿公司手中。

　　尽管中国五矿对整合赣州稀土“摩拳擦掌”，且已在赣州投资了寻乌南方、定南大华、定南南方、赣县红金等冶炼分离企业，但江西方面似乎仍对五矿“信心不够”。

　　据《中国经济周刊》记者了解，中国五矿被江西有关方面认为是“贸易起家”，经营稀土的时间短，技术优势不明显。另外，中国五矿“低价位”拿下江西钨业后，从此再无钨业领域相关投资，有人担心，地方稀土业也会如此沦为央企的“打工仔”。

　　有知情人士称，江西省政府目前正启动与中国铝业(10.13,-0.11,-1.07%)的合作，支持后者对江西稀土、钨业的重组。至于赣州，去年10月，五矿方面一度跑到江西省政府“告了赣州一状”，斥责赣州稀矿公司不给其冶炼分离企业配额(原料)。

　　对此，赣州有关部门人士称，中国五矿在赣州，仍停留在加工的初级阶段，而本地孵化出来的许多企业，都能到深加工的三级、四级产品。

　　“地方政府会更多考虑产业平台、科技创新、可持续发展这一块，而央企不可能做到；稀土资源开采的分散性、复杂性，必须依靠地方政府来管理；指令计划下的整合不是一条好路，一定要有适度竞争。”曹晓秋称，“(如果)只由一家央企来控制重稀土，绝对‘完蛋’！”

　　中国五矿的“攻城掠地”，并非仅止步于江西。

　　去年6月，四川冕宁稀土矿，在经历一年多的“纠结”后，迎来的“东家”并不是“众望所归”的中国五矿，而是江西铜业。

　　同样的事还发生在今年8月，湖南稀土金属研究院“婉拒”了中国五矿的并购要求，转而寻求与有风电行业标杆企业——湖南湘电集团合作。湖南湘电集团董事长周建雄解释称，公司风力的发电机项目每年对稀土元素的年需求量大。

　　值得指出的是，自1998年国家开始实施稀土出口配额制度后，国外部分企业也开始在中国寻找“源头”。在南方，一些美国、日本的知名电子企业入驻赣州；在北方，有50家外企将其生产线前移至包头稀土高新区。

　　国外企业与国内稀土业谋求直接合作，这引起了一些警惕，不少业内人士指其实质为“市场换技术”。

　　曹晓秋称，赣州稀土甚至全国稀土的“软肋”的确在技术，对于招商进来的外企，“我不仅要看它的资本，还要看它的技术，看它做到产品的哪一级。所以，我再三跟中国五矿(相关负责人)讲，不是不合作，在适当的时候，我们迟早会走到一起——有资源、有技术、有高质量的产业链，(我们)才能共同‘叫板’国外！”

　　稀土三问

　　中国稀土的储量，多种说法，相差极大，具体数据属“国家机密”，但不知储量，如何规划开发？

　　稀土建储，“北方得到支持了，南方为什么得不到？”建储究竟是国家战略层面的事，还是企业的商业规划？该不该建？怎么建？谁来建？

　　稀土限额出口，外国施压，国内一些企业也在喊话：“稀土不稀、部分可以贱卖”。稀土价格究竟是贵是贱？谁说了算？

　　储量究竟是多少？

　　“中东有石油，中国有稀土”。这是邓小平在1992年说的一句话，如今被媒体高频引用。

　　其实，在这句话的后面，邓小平还有明确的指示：“一定要把稀土的事情办好，把我国的稀土优势发挥出来！”

　　中国稀土有多少？外界众说纷纭，包括官方给出的数据了也不尽相同。

　　去年11月，商务部研究院商情处公开的数据显示：至2007年底，全国保有稀土资源储量为8468万吨。

　　而2008年，国土资源部统计年鉴显示，国内探明稀土储量约7000万吨。

　　在欧美各国，探明储量是指对测定储量及推定储量的总和。在中国，探明储量则指矿产储量分类中开采储量、设计储量与远景储量的总和，而保有储量是指探明储量减去动用储量所剩余的储量。

　　照理，探明稀土储量应略高于保有储量，而两家国家权威部门公开的数据显示，保有储量反超探明稀土1000余万吨。

　　民间也有自己的说法。2009年11月，中国稀土学会第五次代表大会释放出来的声音是：目前，全球稀土资源总储量为8800万吨，中国稀土资源储量占全球的31%(约2728万吨)，俄罗斯占22%，美国占15%。

　　欧美的统计方法不一样，得出的结果亦大相径庭。

　　2005 年底美国矿物部公布的数据，全球累计探明稀土工业储量为1.54 亿吨，中国在其中所占比率约58%，即约8932万吨。

　　今年7月，美国能源政策分析家Marc Humphries向该国国会提交的一份名为《稀土元素：全球供应链条》的报告称，2009年，中国稀土探明储量为3600万吨，占世界36%，产量则为12万吨，占世界产量的97%。

　　令外界眼花缭乱的还有地方的统计。

　　包头官方多次称，包头稀土已探明储量达7900万余吨，占全国总储量的85%以上，占世界总储量的40%。而包头稀土高新区对外公开资料称，中国稀土已探明资源为全球的66.7%，包头占全球的54.2%。

　　赣州亦是。在赣州今年发布的《稀土产业发展指导意见》中称，赣州的离子型稀土(又称“重稀土”)矿已探明储量约47万吨，占全国离子型矿产储量的40%左右，远景储量约940万吨。

　　商务部研究院商情处公开的数据是，全国重稀土探明储量81万吨，其中江西59万吨，占全国同类矿的72%；而在国土资源部2008年统计年鉴中，国内探明的重稀土矿共有805万吨，其中江西283万吨，占35%。

　　江西仅赣州一地公布的重稀土远景储量就达940万吨，远高于国家相关部门提供的结果。探明储量是一个国家进行矿山建设、制定国民经济计划、合理规划工农业布局的重要依据。怎会存在如此大的差距？

　　“探明储量及开采量是一个动态变化过程，统计的来源与口径也不一样。”湖南稀土金属研究院总工程师俞铁辉对《中国经济周刊》记者称，“实际上，探明储量本身就是一个估计数字，都不准确。”

　　按稀土现行管理制度，探矿、采矿权归属国土资源系统内的矿管部门，国土资源系统发布的稀土资源储量应该更具权威性。据了解，上世纪90年代，国土资源部门就重稀土开采方面下发了104本采矿证，此后约20年时间再无发证。一方面出于整治需要，但另一方面，这20年间是否有过详细摸底？

　　“你的‘家底’会让人知道吗？”就此问题，在电话里，国土资源部的一位官员在反问《中国经济周刊》记者后称，这属“国家机密”，国土矿产部门鲜少对外去说到底有多少储量，国家和地方对外招商引资时，可能会给出一个参考数据，“今年，国土资源部正在搞一个矿产资源勘查、规划调查，这轮调查后，应该会给国家一个比较准确的数据。”

　　究竟是“保密需要”还是探矿难度大、相对准确的储量根本就拿不出？数据“不靠谱”，“家底”外人不知道，但“家里人”是不是很清楚？

　　稀土要建储吗？

　　“危机即机遇。”

　　2008年12月，北方轻稀土巨头——包钢稀土联合其他7家企业共同组建了包钢稀土国际贸易公司(包钢稀土持67%股份)，对矿石型、原料型、产品型3种稀土原料产品实施储备，实施统购统销，旨在稳定原料市场价格、消除恶性竞争。

　　公开资料显示，一年多的时间里，包钢稀土国际贸易公司动用金融杠杆，“砸”进去的资金超过20亿元。

　　外界评述，包钢稀土“自掏腰包”实施储备，更多地顾及了企业利益。

　　为争取政策倾斜，以“战略储备”的名义，包钢稀土开始向相关决策层“要支持”。2010年2月9日，内蒙古自治区人民政府同意了包钢稀土“关于实施包头稀土原材料产品战略储备的方案”。

　　根据内蒙古自治区人民政府的批复：包钢稀土的储备资金由企业自行承担，自治区、包头市分别给予1000万的贴息支持，余下由母公司包钢集团贴息。

　　作为国家整合稀土行业的龙头企业之一，上述批复被外界解读为包钢稀土在北方承担起了国家战略储备的职能。

　　对此，南方稀土企业“颇有意见”。他们称，相比于北方的轻稀土，南方的重稀土储量更少、更具战略储备价值，“北方支持了，南方为什么得不到？”

　　几乎与北方轻稀土同时收储的，还有南方的赣州稀矿公司。

　　2009年初，按照“政府调控、企业收储、银行贷款、财政扶持、市场运作”的原则，赣州市政府牵头拟筹资18亿元(后实际投入约10亿元)，由赣州稀矿公司具体操作，对重稀土原矿及各类稀土分离产品进行“战略储备”。

　　赣州收储亦曾向国家相关部门表达类似“需要支持”的声音，但没有回声，曹晓秋称，“国家不给政策、不拿钱，只好自己投。”

　　就政策“偏向北方”的原因，国家工信部一位不愿透露姓名的官员对《中国经济周刊》解释，“包钢稀土属伴生矿，随铁矿开采(每100万吨铁矿石中约含5万吨稀土)，除国家定额生产外，余下稀土存放于尾矿坝中，造成资源的二次贫化；而南方是离子型矿，可以用多少取多少，剩下的储存地下，以备需时。”

　　上述官员称，赣州稀矿公司甚至包钢稀土的收储，更多体现于企业(区域)战略而非国家战略，它更类似于市场行为下的商业储备，“对待这个事(稀土国家建储)，民间很活跃，国家很理性。”

　　“活跃者”依据是，美国、日本等发达国家已纷纷建立起战略资源储备制度，美国、澳大利亚、加拿大等部分拥有稀土资源的国家，限制或停止开发本国的稀土开采，转而从中国进口；据称，资源贫乏的日本在获得大量稀土后，并不急于派上用场，而是将这些足够使用数十年的资源用来“填海”。

　　尽管稀土建储的呼声不绝于耳，但国家层面上的制度性建储目前没有被提上日程。

　　在《中国经济周刊》记者的调查中，业内认为“目前暂未建储”原因有三：一、量方面，中国稀土资源相对富足，不可能“紧捂”资源不发展，同时，相比于铜、铅、铝等其他动辄千亿级的“航母”产业，稀土的总量小、话语权不够(目前国内稀土产业年产值不足400亿元)；二、应用方面，全球稀土大约90%左右为民用，国防和尖端科技的需求小；三、市场方面，收储不当会导致产能调控失衡，甚至引发市场剧烈波动。

　　事实上，毋需中国国家物资储备局出手，包头与赣州两个地方同时发力，稀土“经济安全”就立马得到保障——2008年-2009年，受金融危机下的“大幅抛售”影响，稀土产品价格一度暴跌40%～60%，而在包头与赣州收储一年后，稀土开始独立于其他金属，价格开始探底回升，目前仍处于历史高位运行，且呈温和上涨之势。

　　例如，氧化镨，从5万元/吨涨至15万元/吨，氧化铈，从1万余元/吨涨至4万元/吨……一系列“高抛低吸”后，包头与赣州的收储，也攒了个“盆满钵满”。

　　为何限制出口？

　　国内企业收储，也许是金融危机下的“临门一脚”，稀土价格上涨的真正推手，在于扼住了关税和配额这两道“咽喉”。?

　　“指导性”变“指令性”后的2008年11月，商务部对钇、铕、镝、铽等元素出口关税上调到25%，其他稀土元素产品均上调至15%；同年12月，对此前不征税的金属镝铁和钕铁硼又追加20%的出口关税。

　　2009年，国家工信部制定的《稀土工业发展的专项规划(2009-2015年)》，更是明确提出2009年—2015年每年出口稀土不超过3.5万吨。

　　商务部公开的数据显示，2001年-2007年，我国稀土产品出口量维持在6万～8万吨之间；2008年因市场萎缩，出口配额为47449吨；2009年为50145吨；2010年的出口配额降至为30258吨。

　　2009年3月，国土资源部下发通知，称2011年前原则上暂停受理新的钨矿、锑矿和稀土矿勘查、开采登记申请。

　　多道“金牌”下发后，中国稀土不再是“白菜价”。对于习惯于使用中国廉价矿物质的生产制造商而言，这些游戏规则的改变如同“当头棒喝”。

　　今年8月底，中日经济高层对话，日方提出“希望稀土占全球产量90%以上的中国放宽出口限制”；之前的8月初，首届中国稀土峰会，美国稀土权威人士杰克·利夫顿就“今年的稀土出口配额比去年减少了近40%”要求中方给予解释；而在此之前，部分稀土进口大国舆论“一边倒”，呼吁政府向中国表示抗议，更有一些企业向WTO发起投诉……中国稀土似乎正遭遇一场由“出口配额”引发的“国际争议”。

　　中国在挟稀土而操纵国际市场吗？

　　7月底，美国能源政策分析家Marc Humphries向美国国会提交的《稀土元素：全球供应链条》中称，2009年，中国稀土储量为3600万吨，占世界36%；产量则为12万吨，占世界产量的97%。与之形对比的是，美国2009年的稀土储量为1300万吨，占世界13%，产量为0；俄罗斯储量为1900万吨，占世界19%，产量为0；澳大利亚储量为540万吨，产量为0；印度储量为310万吨，占世界3%，产量为0.27万吨，占世界2%。

　　不是中国在“独享”稀土资源。

　　一系列稀土大国“产量为0”的背后，一方面是这些国家“雪藏”自身资源，另一方面，中国稀土如潮水般的资源、白菜式的价格，大可不必自身开采。

　　“中国以1/3左右的储量，供应全球90%左右的生产，非常态。”在采访中，大多官员与业内人士对国家收紧稀土出口配额持肯定态度，他们认为，不管是环境保护需要，还是结构调整需要，中国有权提出自己的产业发展战略。

　　但与此形成鲜明对比的是，国内也有一些行业人士认为，“不能过分限制出口”、“出口政策不宜频繁变动”、“稀土不稀、部分可以贱卖”、“出口有利于加强国际合作”等。

　　他们“底气不足”的原因有：美国莫利矿表示要重启已经荒废将近20年的加州山口稀土矿，加拿大阿弗龙稀有金属公司试图在加拿大西北部开发新矿，澳大利亚Lynas稀土公司和阿拉弗拉公司准备开发稀土矿藏，加拿大西部矿业(12.48,0.13,1.05%)集团也拿到了南非稀土矿的开采权……另外，一些发达国家还发出了“寻找稀土替代产品”声音。

　　认为“出口政策不宜频繁变动”的观点，主要来自企业界。一些官员与专家指出，出口减少、国际参与企业增加、竞争压力加大，原有粗放式的“寡头模式”将被颠覆，影响了一些企业和地方的“既得利益”。

　　针对目前尖锐的“出口限额”问题，也有一些专家认为，笼统将17种稀土元素定位于战略资源有失偏颇，国内轻稀土储量相对较多，其中镧、铈等元素含量高(个别元素含量超过60%)，应用主要为民用，可以适度放开；重稀土储量相对较少，其化合物中镥、钇、铽等元素含量低(部分元素含量低于1%)，用于满足国防战略及尖端技术需求，要严格控制，“出口限额政策是对的，但我们可以做得更有策略、更有主动性，比如镧、铈等元素明年给他们增加5%、10%也未尝不可。”

Real Estate Investing Course For Beginners: Learn How To Generate Passive Income With Creative Real Estate Investment Strategies.

2010-09-10T22:39:00.001-07:00

http://www.zizzoo.com/guides/realestate/index.php

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比亚迪的系统内危机：现有扩张策略逼近极限

2010-09-10T22:02:00.001-07:00

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/20100911/01358639990.shtml

http://www.sina.com.cn 2010年09月11日 01:35 中国经营报

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　　比亚迪“系统内危机”

　　子鱼、岳伟

　　编者的话/

　　入行之初，作为中国最具活力的民营汽车企业之一，比亚迪汽车产品确实以“创造性复制”，以及挟优势电池业务进入新能源领域的方法取得了成功，但此后其低成本扩张、垂直整合等策略已经开始显现出与外部市场变化的不适应。当下频发的渠道“退网”现象只是危机的一个表象。在现有的扩张策略逼近极限的情况下，王传福和比亚迪或许需要踩一脚刹车，重新审视一下前面的路。

　　比亚迪宏大的梦想撞到了坚硬的现实。

　　9月底，比亚迪董事长王传福将再度操刀“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的中国之行，除眼前的这个深圳坪山总部外，老巴接下来还将探访比亚迪位于长沙、西安、北京等地的分基地。过去的一年中，王因获得巴菲特投资而闻名，现在他的团队又在极力传达出同样的喜庆气氛。

　　但这似乎都并不足以冲淡这位比亚迪总裁近期的忧愁——

　　一段时间以来，为接二连三的压货所累的比亚迪经销商们正在盘算着是继续售卖F3，还是转而向国内其他自主品牌车企提货——比亚迪此前引以为傲的“店海战术”似乎开始不奏效。

　　然而，从销售市场弥漫过来的并不仅仅是渠道终端的军心动摇，在整体市场销量放缓、利润下滑和资金链吃紧等问题背后，王传福为比亚迪通盘设计的超高速发展的规划似乎开始面临放空的危机。

　　悠闲的坪山

　　9月7日下午2点，比亚迪路北1号大门口，小曾(化名)和他的两个同伴甩掉手里的烟头，准备进门去“六角大楼”领取工资卡。

　　眼前这个白色拱形设计的大门气势巍峨，间或有比亚迪F3和F6车型穿梭出入。临近的建筑十分规整，沿着比亚迪北路两侧一字排开。这条路通向盐坝高速，路中间的太阳能路灯柱上挂着红色的灯笼，白色的灯柱和广告牌反射着南方暴雨初歇的天空。

　　小曾和另外两个同伴是从百公里外的惠州过来的，他们是比亚迪惠州基地的普工。这一天是周二，按照常理，此时小曾应该在惠州基地忙于汽车夹具(用于汽车制造的一种工具)的流水化生产。但由于近期“班排得比较松”，他才得闲陪另外一个入厂才半年的同伴来总部办事。

　　“不知道为什么会有这样的班期调整。”小曾还不知道公司总部已经降低了今年的整车销量目标，这也意味着接下来组装车间对零部件厂的需求量也会有相应调整。他反倒有些庆幸，“反正这也不影响我，普工每个月就拿1100元的固定工资。”

　　下午2点，比亚迪工作时间，在不远处的比亚迪北路3号门口的小街上，有着一溜招牌上标着“亚迪”字样的小餐馆，几个身穿比亚迪蓝色工作服的年轻女孩悠闲地吃着凉面。旁边的桌球摊上，一群穿灰色工作服的比亚迪员工围着一张小台球桌抢着击球。这些年轻的一线工人并不清楚他们所在的公司有什么问题。而一线车间从往常的繁忙到如今的悠闲，似乎预示了比亚迪的一些麻烦。

　　坚硬的现实

　　从渠道终端反馈回来的信息的确不容乐观。自4月份平通成都空港旗舰店转投吉利汽车之后，至8月底，比亚迪湖南光大4S店又取消了所有的提货计划选择退网。实际上，自2010年3月份以来，比亚迪在成都、北京、浙江、山东、河南、深圳、东莞、杭州等地区的经销商陆续出现“退网”的情况。

　　“上述每个区域平均有1～2家重点经销商‘出现问题’。”比亚迪一位内部人士向《中国经营报》记者粗略估算。而这背后，除自今年4月份开始的车市整体下滑的客观因素外，比亚迪自身的销售政策也频遭质疑。

　　“比亚迪的销售策略是无论车子好卖不好卖都疯狂向经销商压货，而厂家承诺的返点和第三方支持也没能如期兑现。”上述比亚迪成都平通空港旗舰店市场部负责人表示。

　　据其介绍，原来平通单店每月可实现100辆销量，但随着今年二季度比亚迪在当地销量的下滑，现在50辆的销量都无法保证，其余的就变成库存积压下来。但与合资车企的商务政策不同的是，比亚迪下达给经销商的月度、季度任务的参考标准不是根据市场行情，而是根据厂家全年的销量目标。

　　“区域经理会不断提升每个月的配额，例如，某个季度第一个月的销量是100辆，那么第二个月会变成150辆或者200辆，第三个月再提高到300辆。逐渐递增的提单量考验着4S店的资金实力和销售能力。”上述人士表示。

　　以比亚迪最畅销的车型F3为例(价格5.59万~16.98万元)，厂家承诺给经销商的政策是，每辆车差价4000元、月度返利1000元、季度返利1000元，还加广告补助1000元和年终返利。因此，4S店每卖出一辆F3所获得的毛利润在7000元～8000元。但如果完不成厂家下达的销量任务，经销商则拿不到上述所有返利。

　　有经销商估算，一个能完成单月销量的4S店每月大约需要3500万元的周转资金，加上厂家最高不超过2000万元的授信贷款，即便是采取自有资金和利润再投入的“滚动模式”，也依旧难以避免资金周转的难题。

　　频繁出现的经销商退网现象是比亚迪新近的一次挫折。这让比亚迪有些始料未及。“我们正在核查相关的情况，以便采取更好的应对措施。”尽管在接受记者采访时，比亚迪的公关人员一再强调这是“竞争对手在挖墙脚”，但同时也不得不承认这是“近年来比亚迪渠道所面临的一次重大打击”。

　　脆弱的渠道

　　实际上，只要了解比亚迪此前针对渠道的一些策略，就能明白上述经销商“退网”事件并不偶然。

　　据比亚迪汽车销售公司副总王建钧介绍，比亚迪销售公司目前的架构主要是由总经理夏治冰统管4个副总，4个副总分管A1、A2、A3、A4四个网络和300家经销商，每个网络下又以区域设置大区经理负责制。而比亚迪经销商的最终准入审核则由夏治冰和4个副总决定，最终的决定因素是比亚迪在当地区域的销售情况以及网络布局的密度。

　　不过据记者了解，比亚迪的经销商资质其实是参差不齐的。一般情况下，申请者只需200万元的启动资金即可入网，算上100万元押金、100万元配件和物料进货款以及后期的提车款，约1000万元资金就能滚动起一家比亚迪4S店的运营。

　　事实上，两年前比亚迪汽车销售公司就开始在渠道建设上实施“千店工程”，具体包括网络覆盖率省会城市达到100%、地级市达到80%以上、县级市达到70%以上、总网点达900个、客户服务中心8个，并提供配件配送和技术支撑。而正是这些遍布全国的超过1000家的销售网络，支撑着比亚迪销量从10万辆到20万辆再到40万辆的连年翻番。

　　“淡季就把货铺满，旺季好销，如果发现库存太多了，就做点促销计划，一辆车降3000元，库存一下子就出去了。”在2010年5月的比亚迪(01211.HK)股东大会上，王传福如是阐述其渠道策略，“让经销商太高兴也不好，还是让他们有压力睡不着觉比较好，这样才有动力卖，当然把他们逼疯了也不行，要有张有弛。”

　　因此，比亚迪在对区域经理培训时有一个“压得狠，销得快，赚得多”的说法。于是，在库存和资金周转压力下，大多数比亚迪经销商往往会选择“低价跑量”的策略，以期提升销量获得可观的年终返利，这也使之后跨区销售和恶性价格竞争如家常便饭。

　　“2008年以来爆发式的销量增长掩盖了内在渠道层面的问题。”知名汽车评论员钟师认为，除非车市永远保持15%～20%的加速跑，一旦车市出现低迷，迫于销量任务的压力，网络与厂家的矛盾就会激化。

　　失衡的战略

　　“频发的退网事件反映了比亚迪在快速增长期对网络管理及重视程度不足，一味求快的发展模式必然带来恶果。”盖世汽车网CEO陈文凯表示。当然，这仅仅是比亚迪遇到问题的一个方面。

　　来自中汽协的统计数据显示，比亚迪2010年3月份的销量为68129辆，此后连续5个月一路下滑至8月份的31069辆。这迫使比亚迪不得不在年中总结会上作出调低今年销量目标的决定。按照比亚迪原有的计划，80万辆的销量目标同比去年(44.8万辆)增幅为79%，而调整后的60万辆同比去年增幅计划仅为33%。

　　此前，有业内人士分析，比亚迪高速增长的天花板可能出现在年销50万辆的时候。实际上，比亚迪自身也对市场也有这种担忧。“我们无法准确地解释近5年来比亚迪爆发式增长的内在因素，同时这个增长能有多长的持续性。”上述比亚迪内部人士坦陈，初期的垂直整合战略等是被逼出来的，而在积累期完成之后，比亚迪的确需要一个更为体系化的战略。

　　刚刚发布的比亚迪股份2010年上半年业绩报告显示：截至2010年6月30日，比亚迪股份经营性现金流余额为31.56亿元，同比2009年中报的49.66亿元减少18.1亿元，下降幅度超过36.45%，手持现金及等价物则更是出现自2008年以来首次负增长，相比2010年上半年期初余额减少5亿元，而2009年中报中，比亚迪股份的现金及等价物余额则为增加3.6亿元。

　　经营性现金流余额及手持现金余额的减少使得比亚迪股份必须依靠银行借贷来缓解资金压力，2010年中报显示，其包括银行贷款的借贷总额同比2009年中报出现了近一倍的增长，总额达到64亿元，随着计息银行借贷已陆续到期，比亚迪集团年内回归A股并不顺利可能会令比亚迪发展资金更为吃紧。

　　“以往比亚迪追求垂直整合的发展模式，事必躬亲。在进入汽车业初期，这种模式对比亚迪的促进作用明显。”陈文凯认为，但目前比亚迪已进入高速增长期，而且又面临着车市整体低迷的压力，比亚迪忽略一些汽车业的基本规则导致问题开始显现。

　　据2010年上半年的财报数据，比亚迪锂电池的营业收入为10.25亿元，仅占比亚迪股份242亿元销售收入的4%。从此前比亚迪斥资6000万收购美的三湘客车、2亿元收购宁波中纬、与奔驰合资电动车等项目来看，出身于IT电子行业的比亚迪，已经将公司经营战略的方向逐步调整到收效较快的汽车业务和新能源车方面。

　　不过，从眼下的情况看，一方面在汽油车市场面临渠道崩盘的危机，另一方面，占到集团总投资份额约七成的新能源汽车项目短期内无法获得真金白银，比亚迪的扩张策略似乎陷入了一个死胡同。“入行之初，比亚迪汽车产品‘创造性复制’方法很成功，同时又以其优势电池业务进入到新能源领域，这些都是比亚迪成功的‘法宝’，但其低成本扩张、垂直整合等策略已经开始不适应外部市场的变化。”陈文凯表示，比亚迪的投资方向及发展思路也亟须调整。

　　目前，就算比亚迪的区域经理争分夺秒地解决“退网”问题，王传福和他的团队所面临的严峻形势还是不亚于一场全面战争——在现有的扩张策略逼近极限的情况下，王传福和比亚迪或许需要踩一脚刹车，重新审视一下前面的路。

泸州老窖缺乏增长"新动力"

2010-09-06T21:50:00.001-07:00

http://www.news365.com.cn/wxpd/caijing/gggz/201009/t20100907_2820922.htm

日期：2010-09-07 作者：来源：东方早报

　　国泰君安

近日我们调研了泸州老窖股份有限公司(下称泸州老窖，000568)。我们获悉泸州老窖在对国窖1573提价后，将在2011年控量销售；老窖特曲方面并不打算提价，而是想通过放量模式来促其销售，预计其2011年特曲销量应该会不错；此外泸州老窖还将推出新产品"中国品味"、年份特曲来提升产品档次；而目前泸州老窖正处于销售调整期。

我们预期泸州老窖2010、2011年EPS(每股收益)分别为1.42元、1.72元。

而从二级市场表现来看，昨日泸州老窖报收于36.88元，微跌0.05％。目前估值并不高，我们维持对其"增持"评级。

中高档产品:

销量增长显乏力

泸州老窖老窖特曲以上产品今年销售情况并不太理想:第一是销量，上半年国窖1573销量增长7％，老窖特曲基本没有增长，当然这比去年销量下降的情况已经有所好转了；第二是价格，国窖1573的零售价格今年上半年增长幅度相对比较小，8月份前国窖1573的零售价格在660－698元之间徘徊，与贵州茅台、五粮液出现较大差距，老窖特曲与去年价格持平，维持在198元。比较可喜的是8月份，泸州老窖对国窖1573的零售指导价格提升90元至788元，上海零售终端价格已涨至818元左右。

总体上看，在经历了2005－2008年的销量快速增长以后，泸州老窖目前的中高档产品销量增长已经乏力。我们分析原因主要是:泸州老窖销量恢复期和新产品销售的爆发期已过，内生性增长的新动力缺乏。

我们认为，白酒行业增长的动力目前还在，但是泸州老窖的恢复性增长已经结束。行业从2002年的低点至今都处于快速的恢复期，预计2010年将突破历史高点，并预计2011年销量还将持续上升。而泸州老窖在1997年老窖特曲产品曾经销量突破万吨，在后来的一系列问题中销量持续下降，2004年已经下降至4500吨左右。不过，在2009年泸州老窖国窖1573和老窖特曲的总销量已经接近万吨，应该说恢复性增长已经结束，需要新生的力量突破生产和销售的高点。

新产品国窖1573的爆发和产品的提升带来2006－2008年销量、收入、利润的大幅增长，但是目前动力已经较弱。国窖1573从2001年运作至2006年已经积累了大量的品牌和消费群体，正好进入爆发期，销量以超过50％的速度增加，2007年提出"双品牌"策略推升2007、2008年泸州老窖老窖特曲的销量和价格，带给泸州老窖新的动力。但是现在这两个品种单品的销量增速超越行业增速的力量已经比较有限。

根据泸州老窖的销售和定价策略，我们预计未来两年能看到国窖1573的高档产品推动产品销售均价上升，预计2011、2012年在老窖特曲放量不提价的策略下能看到老窖特曲的销量大幅增长。爆发式的增长动力还需看新产品的市场反应，预计2011年下半年开始，或者是2012年可以看到。

短期量价策略:

特曲放量不提价

在现阶段的产品策略下，泸州老窖对各档次产品的具体策略如下:

泸州老窖最近在对终端价格理顺，8月已经对国窖1573的零售指导价格提高了90元至788元，未来仍将维持较高的零售价格，以维持1573高档产品的形象，奢侈品路线不变。

此外，泸州老窖将在2011年实施控货举措，降低国窖经典装1573的出货量20％左右，由此带来的收入变化，将由其今年8月份推出的更高档的1573"中国品味"来弥补。

"中国品味"目前定价1888元，由于今年实际推出的时间比预期的要晚，所以今年的销量可能会比较小，但是我们预期明年销量应该能达到500－600吨。

另外，泸州老窖打算放量泸州老窖特曲，预计2010－2012年维持价格不变，推出特曲年份酒，通过结构调整提高产品均价。老窖特曲的销售政策今年出现较大调整。目前来看直接提价过快还是影响了特曲的销量，预计今年不会提价，泸州老窖希望特曲系列酒能有较大幅度的放量。泸州老窖今年初推出九年陈的特曲年份酒，零售价格538元。

我们认为放量泸州老窖特曲，一方面泸州老窖通过推出档次较高的产品填补国窖1573提价后的价格空白区；另一方面也可以达到提升特曲系列酒均价的目标。我们预期通过今年大力度的运作，2011年特曲销量应该会不错。

2013年"远景目标":白酒收入130亿元

此外，我们获悉泸州老窖确立了2013年白酒销售收入130亿元(含税)的远景目标，按照此目标，其2010－2013年销售收入复合增长率将达到26％，如果白酒净利润率保持不变的话，2013年泸州老窖白酒EPS将达到2.4元，股价应该可以达到60元左右。当然，正常情况下，净利率上升应该是可以见到的，那么在此计划下，保守估计2013年泸州老窖白酒EPS将达到2.8元左右，对应股价将达到70元。

但是根据泸州老窖2010年上半年的销量、收入增长情况，显然未来需要加速增长才能达到这一目标。泸州老窖目前正在进行市场整固、销售战略调整，以及产品结构调整和价格的稳固，我们分析认为其未来增长的契机可能有以下几个:

销售积极性提高、渠道控制能力增强带来的整体销量增加；新产品符合市场需求带来新的利润增长点；产品结构调整带来的均价上升，如新推出的"中国品味"、"年份老窖"等；品牌增强带来的价格直接提升；低档产品放量。　　

　　财务数据摘要　　

2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E

营业收入(百万元) 4370 4946 5843 6788

增长幅度(% ) 15% 13% 18% 16%

净利润(百万元) 1691 2049 2459 2922

增长幅度(% ) 32% 21% 20% 19%

每股收益(元) 1.21 1.42 1.72 2.04

数据来源:公司公告，国泰君安

杜鹃与陈晓大KO 究竟谁更胜一筹？

2010-09-01T03:42:00.000-07:00

http://news.cnfol.com/100901/101,1609,8344943,00.shtml

　　编者按：近日，引起一阵波澜的国美电器案又起波澜。黄光裕之妻杜鹃释放，陈晓从未说过“去黄光裕化”，并归咎为媒体误读。黄光裕妻子杜鹃二审改判，刑期从三年半改为三年，并由实刑改为缓刑且当庭释放。有企业正积极接洽黄家：在黄家阵营看来，杜鹃的出现无疑将“力挽狂澜”。杜鹃最大的优势是她在国美元老、黄光裕旧部和投资机构中的影响力。

　　黄光裕，创业22年，铺就零售网络。2008年11月19日黄光裕以操纵股价罪被调查，2009年4月有消息称，因经济问题接受调查的国美电器前主席、中国前首富黄光裕因不堪压力，在北京的看守所内自杀，幸被警员及时发现，后康复。2009胡润慈善榜(第60名)。2010年5月18日，黄光裕案一审判决，法院认定黄光裕犯非法经营罪、内幕交易罪、单位行贿罪，三罪并罚，决定执行有期徒刑14年，罚金6亿元，没收财产2亿元。2010年8月5日，国美电器控股有限公司公布，对黄光裕进行法律起诉。就其违反公司董事的信托责任及信任的行为，寻求赔偿。

　　黄光裕在1987年创办的国美电器目前已发展成中国最大的家电零售企业。2004年销售额238亿元，在中国所有连锁企业中排名第二。除了零售之外，黄光裕并于2005年1月成立国美置业，专事房地产业的投资。

　　其创企业国美于去年11月24日暂停交易至今，国美副总裁何阳青日前向内地媒体透露，该公司将于发布2008年报后复牌，股东会初步计划于5月中召开。国美增发稀释黄光裕股权，国际银团料将胜出。

　　黄光裕出生于1969年5月9日。小时候，黄家家境清贫，最困难时，黄光裕曾拾过破烂、捡过垃圾。也因为家境困难，他16岁初中未毕业就辍学了，跟着20岁的哥哥从老家广东潮阳北上内蒙古做生意。

　　1986年，17岁的黄光裕(那时他还叫黄俊烈)跟着哥哥黄俊钦，揣着在内蒙古攒下的4000元，然后又连贷带借了3万元，在北京前门的珠市口东大街420号盘下了一个100平方米的名叫“国美”的门面。在那里，黄氏兄弟先卖服装，后来改卖进口电器。

　　“那时我也琢磨过做食品生意，但当时人们的消费水平没达到那个程度；做服装生意，有面料、季节性的讲究，我也不太懂。而家电相对比较定型，我觉得自己做起来还比较合适。当时家电还是有货不愁卖，就看你能不能进货。”黄光裕在回忆当初创业情形时说。

　　1987年1月1日，“国美电器店”的招牌正式挂出来了。尽管是有货不愁卖，但黄氏兄弟仍然决定走“坚持零售，薄利多销”的经营策略，而当时那个卖方市场背景下，很多商家正在采用“抬高售价、以图厚利”的经营方式。

　　昨天，国美电器对黄光裕之妻杜鹃被释放一事表示“很高兴”，还首次称国美电器及陈晓均从未说过“去黄光裕化”，并归咎为媒体误读。业内人士认为，否认“去黄”，暗示着创始人黄光裕在国美电器的地位进一步巩固，使黄陈国美股权之争的天平更加向黄光裕方倾斜。8月30日，黄光裕妻子杜鹃二审改判，刑期从三年半改为三年，并由实刑改为缓刑且当庭释放。昨天，国美电器公关公司博然思维和隆文代表国美电器，对媒体表示，“很高兴杜总出来”，“每个国美人都乐意看到杜鹃与孩子们团聚。”而在一周前，该公关公司一提及黄光裕方不管是态度还是表达用词都十分强硬。

　　最吸引媒体眼球的是，国美电器公关公司还首次强调指出，国美电器和陈晓从来没有说过“去黄光裕化”。“创维集团创始人黄宏生被捕后，创维果断采取了切割方式，即将黄宏生本人和创维公司割裂开来，以防止创维品牌受到牵连、伤害。”国美公关公司负责人赵彤表示，2008年底当黄光裕被拘后，国美电器也效仿了这一做法，“但从来没有说过国美电器不要黄光裕，黄光裕在国美的地位是无人可以替代的。‘去黄化’是媒体误读”。对于黄陈大战中“鱼会死，网不会破”的说法，赵彤昨日亦强调指出，陈晓并不会主动提及“鱼网”之类的话，“是媒体在采访中主动用鱼和网来做比喻的”。

　　据了解，上周五，黄光裕向董事会发出两封信，表示如果9月28日股东大会上没有通过自己提出的动议，将对“国美”进行分家，即将黄自己掌控的未纳入上市公司的300多家门店与上市公司的700多家门店脱离干系。还将认购陈晓可能增发的国美股份中的55%至65%。对此，赵彤昨日回应称，即便非上市门店被分离出上市公司，也不影响上市公司对“国美”商标的使用权。“上市公司拥有‘国美’品牌永久性无偿使用权。”据介绍，如今陈晓还带着国美管理层在美国等地进行投资者路演，希望通过沟通，使投资者支持现有国美管理层。预计下周才能回国。业内人士指出，黄陈双方将继续使出浑身解数争夺国美控股权，不到最后一刻不罢休，而最后谁能胜出，只有等到28日那天方可知晓。

　　昨日(8月31日)，接近黄光裕方面的知情人士在接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时透露，未来几周，杜鹃可能会投入到特别股东大会的备战中，包括接触投资者，寻求旧部下支持等，“甚至不排除接触陈晓和贝恩的可能”。

　　有企业正积极接洽黄家：在黄家阵营看来，杜鹃的出现无疑将“力挽狂澜”。上述知情人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，杜鹃最大的优势是她在国美元老、黄光裕旧部和投资机构中的影响力。因此，在未来几天内，杜鹃可能会通过打电话、发邮件等方式与他们进行沟通。国美电器原决策委员会发展战略研究室主任胡刚则表示，杜鹃将充分发挥其丰富的人脉和娴熟的沟通技巧，机构也很容易买她的账。据了解，截至当前，黄光裕胞妹黄燕虹等人，已经在争取机构投资者以及中小鄙东支持方面，取得了实质性进展。

　　“对于我们来说，当前还是积极争取便大国美股东的支持和理解，对于其他的合作，可以延伸到以后的商业发展上。”上述知情人士表示，当前黄家已经通过各种途径，筹集到了充裕的资金。该人士还透露，黄家已陆续接到国内外几个投资机构的合作邀请。一家央企正在积极接洽黄家，天津一家著名房地产公司也愿意出资支持黄光裕。此外，黄家还取得了日本两个财团投资机构的支持，张大中的支持也并非毫无依据。

中国钾肥产业恐再陷外资魔咒

2010-08-30T21:42:00.000-07:00

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20100831/01528574906.shtml

加拿大钾肥公司曲线入股盐湖钾肥(58.00,3.32,6.07%)，若被必和必拓收购

　　曹开虎

　　必和必拓拿出400亿美元现金试图收购全球最大的钾肥企业加拿大钾肥公司（下称“加拿大钾肥”），绝非仅仅只是觊觎后者位于加拿大的资产。

　　《第一财经日报》发现，在必和必拓提出此次收购方案前，加拿大钾肥从2005年开始通过直接入股中国最大的钾肥进口企业中化化肥（00297.HK）、间接入股中国最大的钾肥生产企业盐湖钾肥（000792.SZ），已经在全球最大的钾肥消费市场中国完成了战略布局。

　　一旦必和必拓收购成功加拿大钾肥，有望控制一个比铁矿石更为“完美”的利益链，这甚至比铁矿石的价格控制更为牢固。铁矿石价格虽然目前被必和必拓与其他两家矿业巨头控制，但这三家公司尚未参股一家中国钢铁企业。

　　这家长袖善舞的矿业巨头不仅可能控制全球钾肥市场近四分之一的供应量，同时也将间接掌握中国市场需求。

　　加拿大钾肥完成在华布局

　　早在2005年，中化化肥赴港上市之初，就将加拿大钾肥引进作为战略投资者，以9700万美元向其出售9.99%的股份。

　　“这么做主要是因为这个企业是全球最大的钾肥生产企业，与公司的业务往来很多。”中化化肥投资者关系部一位负责人昨天接受本报采访时表示。

　　这次参股，增强了中化化肥与加拿大钾肥的战略合作，但也同时让加拿大钾肥分享了中化化肥多年积累起来的营销网络。这个网络遍布全国各主要农业产区，覆盖中国90%以上的耕地面积。

　　此后几年，加拿大钾肥经过不断增持，最终将股权提高至目前的22.06%，仅次于第一大股东中化集团持有的52.72%。

　　虽然中化化肥并非中国钾肥唯一的进口企业，却是最大的进口企业。在今年一季度的公司业绩发布会上，中化化肥执行董事及首席执行官杜克平预计，今年公司的钾肥销量可以增长约两成，达到300万吨。

　　2005年，中国进口钾肥量近600万吨，国内产量仅有100多万吨。但是随后几年时间里，进口钾肥数量波动很大，而中国国内产量则稳步增长。

　　加拿大钾肥又盯上了中国国内钾肥资源。机会在2007年出现了，中化集团将持有的盐湖钾肥18.49%转让给中化化肥。

　　为了筹集收购资金，中化化肥不得不进行配股。此举一方面让加拿大钾肥在中化化肥中的持股比例有所提高，同时又让其间接成为盐湖钾肥的股东。中化化肥最终成为盐湖钾肥的第二大股东。

　　盐湖钾肥和盐湖集团(25.88,2.17,9.15%)（000578.SZ）的钾肥产量占据了国内产量绝大部分。中国钾肥生产主要集中在青海、新疆等少数几个钾盐资源比较丰富的地区，其中青海省钾肥产量占全国产量的85%以上，资源集中度高。

　　加拿大钾肥原本并没有成为盐湖集团的间接股东，但是盐湖钾肥和盐湖集团的合并计划再次提供了机会。

　　今年6月17日，盐湖钾肥与盐湖集团宣布证监会批准了其合并计划。合并后，盐湖钾肥将成为中国大型钾肥工业生产基地和盐化工生产基地，形成钾、镁、氯、钠、锂5个产业群。

　　今年上半年，两家公司的钾肥销量大幅增长124%至139万吨。而今年全年国内钾肥产量预计也只有450万吨左右。两家企业占据了大部分市场份额。

　　不过合并后，中化化肥持有的盐湖钾肥股权比例将从18.5%摊薄至9%，为第三大股东，仅次于第一大股东青海国投31%的股权和第二大股东中化集团15%的股权。

　　但是在今年一季度的公司业绩发布会上，杜克平表示，公司收购中化集团持有的盐湖钾肥项目，一定会实行，但暂时没有时间表及交易金额。

　　必和必拓“调研”

　　在提出此次收购此前，必和必拓已经对中国这个最大的消费市场进行了大量的前期调研。

　　中国市场至关重要。根据瑞银的数据，2009年，全球钾肥产能为4300万吨左右。按照2008年中国消费量约为600万吨、全球消费量3200万吨计算，中国需求约占全球的五分之一。

　　去年，必和必拓一位管理层拜访了中国钾肥研究机构——中国无机盐工业协会钾盐行业分会。

　　“他们当时非常想了解中国对钾肥的需求，但是涉及一些敏感数据我们都回避了。”中国无机盐工业协会钾盐行业分会秘书长刘富昌告诉本报。

　　通过大量的调研，必和必拓看准了钾肥今后能够获得暴利。8月25日，必和必拓首席执行官高瑞思（Marius Kloppers）告诉本报，随着发展中国家的人口不断增长、城市化进程的加快，耕地面积将不断减少，要求每亩的产出必须提高。

　　中化化肥有限公司在去年岁末的一份公司债券募集说明书中介绍，全球化肥市场总体呈供给略大于需求的局面，但地区发展不平衡，其中亚洲是世界最大的缺肥区域，氮肥缺口 10%，磷肥缺口为30%，钾肥缺口最大，为90%。

　　正是注意到此，必和必拓打算放弃钾肥以外的化肥资产。

　　外媒昨天援引纽约证券公司Soleil Securities分析师Mark Gulley的话称，如果竞购得以成功，必和必拓会寻求剥离加拿大钾肥的氮磷肥业务。

　　这位分析师上周参加了必和必拓电话会议后在给客户的报告中称，必和必拓表示加拿大钾肥70%的价值在于钾肥资产，经过一段时间可能会寻求将氮肥业务剥离，也许还有磷肥业务。

　　中原证券分析师刘锋认为，从必和必拓历史上对于铁矿石价格的控制能力来看，可能对未来钾肥价格形成控制能力。控制力一旦形成，再利用加拿大钾肥已经提前在华完成的布局，必和必拓有望全面分享中国钾肥需求的利益。

苏宁领跑上半年净利两倍于国美

2010-08-30T21:26:00.001-07:00

http://finance.qq.com/a/20100831/001914.htm

证券时报记者向南

本报讯在和国美电器（0493.HK）的PK中，苏宁电器（002024）无论在股市表现上，还是在业绩水平上都占据优势。今年上半年，苏宁电器实现净利润19.73亿元，而8月23日国美电器公布上半年净利润为9.62亿元，苏宁电器刚好比这位老对手多出105%。上半年苏宁电器净利润同比增长56.03%，实现每股收益0.28元。

在销售方面，国美电器同样也不是苏宁电器的对手。上半年国美电器实现销售收入248.7亿元，同比上升21.55%；而苏宁电器实现主营业务收入354.95亿元，远超国美电器。这刚好和2008年上半年相反，2008年上半年国美电器销售收入为370亿元，苏宁电器为259亿元。上述数据并未将国美未上市部分考虑在内。

不过，两家公司综合毛利率相差无几，国美电器为17.04%，苏宁电器为17.33%，其中国美电器略有上升，苏宁电器略有下降。但是两公司在净利润上差距远大于销售规模，秘密可能出在三项费用上。苏宁电器在管理方面持续优化，公司销售费用率、管理费用率合计同比下降0.79个百分点。

由于连锁网络规模扩大以及管理效率的进一步提升，苏宁电器预计2010年1-9月归属于母公司所有者的净利润比上年同期增长30%-50%。

上半年，苏宁电器在国内市场新进地级以上城市14个，新开传统店（常规店）98家，精品店4家，县镇店47家，共置换/关闭连锁店15家，净增加连锁店134家；分别在山东临沂、江苏泰州、山西大同核心商圈新增3个购置店项目，公司已在全国214个地级以上城市拥有传统店（常规店）1023家、精品店5家、县镇店47家，共计1075家，连锁店面积合计达436.96万平方米，比上年同期增长19.91%；由于报告期内公司加大了三、四级市场的开发，由此带来公司平均单店面积同比下降5.52%至4065平方米。

在国际市场，苏宁电器开始着手进行香港地区的连锁网络的优化，置换/关闭连锁店2家，签约储备店址4家（该4家店面已经于7月份开业），截至期末香港地区拥有连锁店20家，同时，公司还协助日本LAOX在东京新宿、台场新开2家连锁店。截至6月末，LAOX在东京地区已经拥有6家连锁店面，经营状况稳步趋好。截至6月底，苏宁电器在中国大陆、香港地区、日本市场共拥有连锁店1101家。

苏宁电器上半年实现可比店面（指2009年1月1日当日及之前开设的店面）销售收入同比增长23.06%，主要是受益于家电以旧换新、家电下乡、能效补贴等政策，另外通过店面形象改造、丰富产品结构等也提升了单店质量。加之受2009年上半年基数较低影响，公司单店经营效益同比提升较快。

国美事件会让中国老板警惕现代公司制度

2010-08-24T22:14:00.000-07:00

http://tech.hexun.com/2010-08-25/124704605.html

国美之争谁胜谁负虽然不可知，但可以肯定的是，国美事件之后，中国的民营企业老板，都会对那些嚷嚷着现代公司制度的职业经理人保持警惕，心生“拒”意。

　　最近，黄光裕与陈晓关于国美控制权之争，已经被媒体炒到白热化了。本不想对这个热到烂的话题多嘴，这容易惹出是非。但看到一些舆论越扯越远，可能带给社会的误解越来越大，才不得不谈谈我们的看法。

　　黄光裕与陈晓公开撕破脸后，作为职业经理人角色的陈晓，已开始联合美国贝恩资本实施削弱黄光裕控制权的步骤。9月28日，国美将要召开特别股东大会，回应黄光裕此前提出的几点要求。此后，国美还可能进一步增发。而在这个关键时刻之前，贝恩资本计划将所持可转换债券全部转股，以得到更多的投票权。届时，国美控制权之争将要进入关键之战。

　　如何评价这场控制权之争？中国市场上有不同的看法。有不少所谓的管理专家，搬出教科书上的现代企业制度理论，大谈中国家族企业需要转型，以及如何才能利用现代企业制度来发展好企业。持这种看法的人，大多认同陈晓的做法，认为他代表了一种现代职业精神。而国美作为公众公司，不能再在浓厚的私人老板控制之下，继续一家私人特色浓厚的公司。

　　但在我们看来，这种看法根本没有抓住重点，而是教条地拿现代公司制度来套国美事件。陈晓说，他是在捍卫所有股东的利益，实际上，他指的股东就是少数小股东，其他股东也是股东，大股东也是股东，他们的利益也是需要捍卫的。陈晓还说，黄光裕想控制公司，想把上市公司当作私人工具。且不说黄光裕是国美的创始人，并成功地将其上市，陈晓现在的作为，难道不也是为了控制公司吗？只不过不是由黄光裕控制，而是由陈晓和贝恩资本等股东来控制而已。

　　中国绝大部分企业老板看来，国美事件是一次生动的管理风险案例课，清楚地展示了一个心怀背叛的职业经理人，是如何利用他高超的专业技能，引进其他同样带有嗜血本能的投资基金，来抢夺一家民营企业的控股权，颠覆一个家族企业的王国。

　　安邦研究人员接触的不少企业老板都感慨：黄光裕太信任陈晓了，在收购了作为陈晓的永乐电器之后，还很信任地让陈晓来当CEO。坊间传闻，黄光裕曾让自己的厨师给陈晓数次做饭，意在提醒陈晓端的是谁的饭碗。这种颇带江湖气的做法虽然有黄光裕特色，但难以证实。但不管如何，黄光裕很信任地让陈晓出任 CEO的做法，其实不输于现代市场经济国家任何一个家族企业的老板。

　　现在老板出事了，进了监狱，但这个职业经理人却惦记着如何引进外人来获得公司的控股权。在很多企业老板眼里，陈晓就是个背叛者，他的信用有问题。坊间还有一个传闻，陈晓的永乐电器曾经与大中电器的创始人张大中谈合并，但在双方达成协议后，张大中发现陈晓暗地里与国美电器也在谈合并。张大中提出终止合作不成之后，一气之下没收了永乐的1亿多保证金，并提起仲裁。从此，张大中不愿意见陈晓。也正是因为这番过节，张大中这次愿意提供无息资金助黄光裕一臂之力。这个传闻反映的并不只是生意场上的江湖故事，而是反映了做生意的核心——信用问题。

　　很多人把现代公司制度挂在嘴上，但现代公司制度的核心是什么？恐怕这些人并没有真正领会。作为职业经理人，首先要尊重的是股东利益，小股东是股东，大股东更是股东；其次是要承担信托责任。受人之托，要忠人之事。但在国美事件中，陈晓这两样都不占理，他的所作所为，根本与公司治理结构无关。

　　我们相信，中国所有的民营企业老板都在看这件事的最后结果。谁胜谁负虽然不可知，但可以肯定的是，国美事件之后，中国的民营企业老板，都会对那些嚷嚷着现代公司制度的职业经理人保持警惕，心生“拒”意。

最牛散户换代：老牛散渐趋低调新牛散高歌猛进

2010-08-22T07:17:00.001-07:00

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zldx/20100821/04128522401.shtml

曹元，曹占涛

　　资本市场中有那么一群人，不是资产管理机构、不是投资公司，而是以自然人的身份出现，但能引起各方关注，他们出现在上市公司的前十大流通股股东中，并且不止一家，他们身后有一群粉丝跟随进退。他们被称为最牛散户。

　　经过牛熊转换，此前一些最牛散户渐渐低调。比如刘芳、叶晶“夫妇”年初被罚30万元，其行动没有像2007年征战*ST金泰(5.73,-0.12,-2.05%)那样春风得意，截至8月18日公开信息，刘芳只出现在两家上市公司中；刘元生依旧守着万科，黄木顺也没有离开北方国际(28.50,1.26,4.63%)。

　　但是江山代有人才出，2009年以来，又出现了一群最牛散户，操作手法更为彪悍。让人有种长江后浪推前浪之感。

　　高调举牌的孙宜然

　　天伦置业(10.35,-0.21,-1.99%)8月10日发布公告称，自然人孙宜然通过二级市场持有公司549.33万股流通股，占公司总股本的5.12%，超过了5%的举牌红线。

　　最牛散户举牌上市公司的事情不是没有发生，只不过过去比较低调。2007年三季度末，刘芳、叶晶分别持有桐君阁(11.07,-0.33,-2.89%)455.10万股和170.18万股，两人合计持股比例达5.69%，超过红线，但是当年却未举牌。以致今年年初，证监会决定对责任人员分别予以警告，并处以30万元的罚款。

　　而最牛散户金顺法曾经也触碰到了红线。2008年5月30日这一交易日当日，金顺法累计购入公司流通股724万股中兵光电(14.35,-0.53,-3.56%)，占公司总股本的5.03%。但一时间，公司竟无法联系此人。

　　相比而言，孙宜然举牌天伦置业较之当年的刘芳、叶晶或是金顺法更为直接。

　　最牛散户一般都有多样的投资，孙宜然不例外。

　　观察上市公司的流通股数据，今年一季度孙宜然还出现在海越股份(8.84,-0.26,-2.86%)的流通股股东名单中，持股近270万股。而海越股份一季度新增的自然人名单还有莫帆，持股300.7万股。市场传闻，孙宜然、莫帆、孙仲良、全天宝、杭州华源实业有限公司是一致行动人，称为“莫帆系”，还曾经共同持有海博股份(7.50,-0.25,-3.23%)、杭州解百(9.11,-0.29,-3.09%)等股票。有市场人士认为，这应该是一帮资金量庞大的浙江游资，股东名字仅为幌子。而他们的投资特点是：擅长上海、浙江一带上市公司的投资，天伦置业是当中的例外。

　　论高调，孙宜然超越了当年的刘芳；论激进，新牛散也青出于蓝。

　　重组股投资是一个风险大、收益高的一种投资。当年刘芳、叶晶夫妇叱咤风云的地方正是对重组股的投资，如早前持有的*ST金泰、川化股份(6.38,-0.08,-1.24%)、亿城股份(5.63,-0.23,-3.92%)、桐君阁、新都酒店(6.80,-0.04,-0.58%)等都有重组概念。

　　至今这一特性虽然未有太多改变，但却保守了许多。比如今年一季度末，刘芳持有澳洋顺昌(13.39,-0.50,-3.60%)147万股、叶晶持有近89万股。此外，刘芳还现身铜峰电子(6.97,-0.13,-1.83%)、叶晶现身贵糖股份。这三只个股虽然都有重组传闻，但都较为捕风捉影，传闻中的重组行动并未真正进行。其收益也较为普通。今年以来，截至8月20日，澳洋顺昌上涨28.99%、铜峰电子上涨1.46%、贵糖股份下跌10%。

　　ST专业户

　　从近年来的投资情况，刘芳、叶晶对重组富矿ST股已经不愿过多触碰，投资日趋保守。而新近冒出来的最牛散户却传承了当年刘芳之勇，并有过之无不及。

　　吴鸣霄和刘东辉就是其中神奇二人。

　　根据上市公司已经披露的数据，一季度末，吴鸣霄现身9家上市公司，分别是*ST中房、*ST北生、*ST夏新、*ST厦华(5.38,-0.18,-3.24%)、*ST筑信(8.22,-0.15,-1.79%)、*ST东海、*ST金杯(4.00,-0.10,-2.44%)、ST昌鱼(5.75,-0.15,-2.54%)，还有于今年4月摘帽的天方药业(9.12,-0.17,-1.83%)。他成为名副其实的ST专业户。

　　市场上对吴鸣霄的关注是从去年下半年开始，现年40多岁的他是国鸣投资董事，该公司亦有发阳光私募的打算。

　　回顾吴鸣霄的投资路径，从来都是剑走偏锋。

　　2006年包钢认购证的持有权证数量达到或超过可流通数量5%的持有人名单中，个人投资者吴鸣霄从2006年5月23日就开始出现，这一直持续到6月1日，此后再也没有出现，说明该人已套现。

　　包钢认购证的总份数为89391万份，超过5%意味着该人持有数超过4500万份，从5月23日到6月1日该权证每份累计上涨0.1元，吴鸣霄累计获利至少在450万元。

　　吴鸣霄投资ST股有公开记录出现在2007年。当年，为还债，南京斯威特集团有限公司所持有的*ST沪科(6.53,-0.14,-2.10%)3850万股限售股份中的1049万股，通过江苏瑞信拍卖有限公司等三家拍卖行对外拍卖，吴鸣霄正是买受人。

　　吴鸣霄也是通过拍卖进入ST北生的。2008年，广东省拍卖行有限公司、广东铭兴拍卖有限公司、广东中旺拍卖有限公司受广州市中级人民法院委托，于2008年3月17日在广州天河区天河路351号216室广东省拍卖行有限公司拍卖厅公开拍卖广西北生集团有限责任公司持有的ST北生部分限售流通股1400万股(占公司股本总额303,687,468股的4.6%)，最终由吴鸣霄以7400万元拍得，相当于每股作价5.2857元。

　　事实上，吴鸣霄对其他ST股的投资也都不是在重组前一两个月买入，而是耐心等待。

　　据吴鸣霄的合伙人国鸣投资董事长秦毅介绍，对于重组，吴鸣霄首先是看公告，几年的公告都要看，对于司法拍卖或股权质押冻结之类信息更要充分研究，然后结合二级市场，判断是否有先知先觉的资金入场，如果股价在底部长期横盘，或者虚假放量大涨，这不符合吴鸣霄的标准，他不会这样做短线。

　　此外，ST股票重组成功概率要看老股东背景、注入资产的发展空间、产业背景和现有资产的杠杆比例、有没有区域概念，吴鸣霄一般喜欢市值在10个亿以下的ST股。他对股价也有要求，六七元以上的ST股是不碰的。

　　世人对吴鸣霄了解颇多，但对另一个善于投资ST股的刘东辉就了解颇少了。

　　根据截至8月18日上市公司披露的十大流通股股东名单。刘东辉的名字出现在ST金瑞(9.43,-0.46,-4.65%)、宜华地产(6.41,-0.22,-3.32%)、富龙热电(10.93,0.20,1.86%)、荣安地产、ST四环(11.38,-0.41,-3.48%)、ST唐陶、七星电子(63.00,-1.18,-1.84%)8只个股身上，出现次数仅次于吴鸣霄。

　　8只个股中，只有两只ST股，似乎刘东辉还算不算ST专业户。但是看看2009年他的表现吧。当年三季度，刘东辉持有ST华塑、S*ST光明、ST四环、*ST唐陶、*ST宝硕(4.23,0.00,0.00%)五只ST股。当年一季度，他还持有ST天海。2008年上半年，他还持有远兴能源(9.41,0.32,3.52%)375万股。

　　资本市场关于刘东辉的最早记录是2007年首季度，刘东辉持有ST仪表(12.46,-0.43,-3.34%)(现更名为银星能源)150万股，是第三大股东。

　　有趣的牛散现象

　　最牛散户常常联袂行动。比如刘东辉和刘晖。

　　刘晖也是位超级散户。截至8月18日上市公司披露的十大流通股股东名单，刘晖成为7家上市公司的流通股股东(不过，其中可能存在重名现象)，分别是ST长信、*ST张股、ST唐陶、ST迈亚、久联发展(17.14,-0.41,-2.34%)、合肥城建(13.92,-0.20,-1.42%)、*ST岷电。

　　刘晖跟刘东辉共同持有ST唐陶。截至一季度，刘东辉持有该公司170万股，占据第一大流通股股东位置；刘晖则持有80.9万股，位列第六大流通股股东。

　　刘晖跟刘东辉的另一次合作可以追溯到2007年首季度，刘晖也持有ST仪表，数量高达370万股，为该股当时第二大流通股股东。

　　刘晖同另一牛散邹瀚枢也常常行动一致。两人一同出现在久联发展和*ST岷电的前十大流通股股东中。

　　根据上市公司截至8月18日披露的最新数据，邹瀚枢也持有6家上市公司的股权。除了久联发展和*ST岷电外，还有天茂集团(6.00,0.14,2.39%)、ST国祥、*ST博通、苏州高新(6.27,-0.26,-3.98%)。

　　邹瀚枢从2006年至今先后出现在关铝股份(5.32,-0.19,-3.45%)、中航地产(12.80,0.58,4.75%)、中天城投(10.80,-0.23,-2.09%)、美锦能源(18.51,0.19,1.04%)、熊猫烟花(17.15,-0.69,-3.87%)、国旅联合(5.53,-0.19,-3.32%)、S佳通(8.55,-0.25,-2.84%)、赛马实业(25.05,0.00,0.00%)等多家上市公司的十大流通股股东名单中。在“攀钢系”一战中，邹瀚枢也获利不菲。此外，*ST琼花(7.35,-0.22,-2.91%)、ST金瑞等重组股上的提前成功潜伏，让邹瀚枢获得了“重组股票高手”的美誉。

　　邹瀚枢投资范围非常宽泛，除了股票，还投资债券和权证。今年6月，中行转债发行，在其网下发行结果公告中，一个为“国投瑞银基金公司-工行-邹瀚枢”的股票账户赫然在列，获配189手，合计18.9万元，退还金额为181.10万元。如此算来，国投瑞银基金公司名为邹瀚枢的这个专户一对一参与中行转债累计动用的资金为200万元。

　　2006年12月4日，在深交所披露的持有权证数量达到或超过可流通数量5%的持有人名单中，持有鞍钢JTC1的邹瀚枢就榜上有名。

　　有资深市场人士推测，根据资金规模和操作手法来判断，邹瀚枢很有可能“不是一个人在战斗”，而是不愿浮出水面的私募基金。但邹瀚枢的身世仍在水下。

　　此外，赵建平与李静同时出现在北矿磁材(17.78,-0.41,-2.25%)前十大流通股股东中，前者还持有红星发展(9.20,-0.30,-3.16%)、威尔泰(15.54,-0.60,-3.72%)、生意宝(28.50,-1.50,-5.00%)、卫士通(24.00,0.89,3.85%)、汉王科技(107.40,-5.60,-4.96%)、建研集团(24.16,-0.64,-2.58%)等个股。其行动和前述多位专注重组股的不同，赵建平专注中小板，所投资个股无不例外位列其中。

　　李静还持有有研硅股(14.54,0.41,2.90%)、吉林高速(4.34,-0.09,-2.03%)、鑫龙电器(15.46,-0.50,-3.13%)等个股，没有明显的投资特征。

　　上述最牛散户虽然投资数量多，但多集中在中小市值股票中。若以持股市值计算，李嘉诚或许是最牛散户。李嘉诚一直在逢低吸纳中国银行(3.49,0.00,0.00%)，截至一季度末，持有中国银行306679万股，若以8月19日3.63元的收盘价计算，李嘉诚持股市值高达111.3亿元。

超级散户揭秘：8家公司前十大流通股东现"许磊"

2010-08-21T07:56:00.001-07:00

http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/9976321.html

经历一轮熊市风雨洗刷之后，超级散户这个群体亦容颜变换。曾被称为“最牛散户”的刘芳等逐渐淡出视野，而刚刚披露过后的上市公司中报显示，许磊等新一批超级散户涌现江湖。

　　统计显示，名为“许磊”的账户出现在8家上市公司的前十大流通股东之中，为“曝光率”最高的个人股东。此外，吴鸣霄、刘东辉、冯小龙、舒逸民等账户至少都是4家公司的前十大流通股东之一。从持仓结构来看，十大超级散户多偏爱中小盘股和重组股。当然，还会有一些资金大鳄隐身于股东披露名单之外，其情况则无法知晓。

　　青睐中小盘低价股

　　中报数据显示，目前A股市场持股品种最多的超级散户是“许磊”。许磊是福建南纺、威华股份、贵绳股份、金飞达、山东威达、全柴动力、亚星化学和洪城股份8只股票的前十大流通股东，其中重仓持有332万股福建南纺，为该公司流通股第一大个人股东。

　　由于持有的多是中小盘低价股，据公开信息计算，许磊持股市值仅在4000万元左右。追溯到今年一季报看，许磊就是7只个股的前十大流通股东之一，其中包括年内“最牛股票”高淳陶瓷（他是第五大流通股东）和多只纺织类股票。此外，从2007年二季度至今，他一直持有山东威达。

　　与许磊相比，吴鸣霄虽然只是6家公司的前十大流通股东之一，但其目前的市值近2.3亿元。他持有的股票多为ST股票，其中*ST夏新和*ST夏华目前已被交易所暂停上市，吴鸣霄在这两只股票上投资约为2000万元。另一位市值靠前的超级散户舒逸民，目前是5只A股的前十大流通股东之一，总市值约1.63亿元。其中，他是S前锋流通股最大个人股东。

　　除吴鸣霄和舒逸民外，其他几位超级散户之前名气并不大。钟坚龙重仓持有盐田港和深桑达A，市值约4000余万元；刘东辉是SST光明流通股最大个人股东，已潜伏约一年半时间；冯小龙偏好科技股，其重仓多年的股票是哈高科，此外还持有彩虹股份，并且是标准股份流通股最大个人股东。李静、吴滨、张玲、张文英则分别重仓*ST香梨、赣能股份、ST康达尔和宝石A。

　　大户持股现“交集”

　　从更多的公开信息看，有4位超级散户持股先后出现过重合情况。

　　资料显示，吴鸣霄曾是法人股专业炒手，该账户在华远地产（ST幸福）、中路股份（ST永久）、ST沪科等“股改牛股”的股东名册上都曾出现过。他最擅长的是在拍卖市场以低价“淘金”。据招商证券牛网软件显示，在华远地产最近解禁的股东名单中，吴鸣霄高居榜首。

　　同样持有华远地产的还有舒逸民，中报显示他再度成为第四大流通股东，此前他也大举买入该股。有市场传闻称，舒曾是宁波敢死队核心成员之一，平时栖身银河证券宁波和义路营业部。

　　ST长信和香梨股份则将钟坚龙与舒逸民、李静联系到了一起。今年一季报显示，钟坚龙和舒逸民分别是ST长信的第一和第二大个人流通股东，钟坚龙在ST长信中潜伏已久，而舒逸民是在一季度介入。到今年二季度，钟坚龙大举减持该股，舒则清仓出局。钟坚龙还曾与李静同时出现在*ST香梨中，李静目前是该股最大的个人流通股东，而钟坚龙排在流通股东第4位。资料显示，钟坚龙是新增股东，李静则从今年一季度开始建仓。

　　当然，这些超级散户之间是否存在某种关系，是否在联手操作股票或者在内幕消息上互通有无，目前仅从公开资料还难以做出判断。(贺辉红)

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