Winter 2021-22 Climate Corner

Ocean Warming and Glacial Retreat To Raise Coastal US Sea Level 1 Foot By 2050

The U.S. coastline sea level is projected to rise in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050) more than in the last 100 years. Photo of flooding in Norfolk, VA in 2014.

JUST IN: SPECTACULAR FLOODING IN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA!

Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

Ice loss in the Thwaites Glacier ice-ocean system doubled in the last 30 years. The glacier currently contributes four percent of annual global sea level rise.

The end of 2021 marked another year-end accounting of the annual land, ocean, and global temperature changes along with ice melt, sea level, tidal flooding, drought, wildfires, and greenhouse gas emissions. The timing coincided with a US multi-agency 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report that had not been updated since 2017. It received major attention from decision makers and the press.

Climate Corner will emphasize the four key takeaways in the 2022 report including some relevant evidence from other sources. Then Antarctica will take center stage with the saga of the so-called “Doomsday Glacier”, the Thwaites Glacier. Along the way you will learn the diference between sea ice, ice shelf, ice sheet, and glacier.

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative. Climate Corner shares a few “wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

At a Glance

   Ocean Facts:

• Ninety percent of global warming is occurring in the ocean, with the last decade warming the most and the year 2021 being the hottest.
• Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, the top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth’s entire atmosphere.

     Antarctic Facts:

• The Antarctica ice sheet holds 90% of fresh water on Earth’s surface.
• The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is about twice the area of Alaska. If it melted entirely, global sea level would rise by 3.3 meters (10.8 feet).
• The Thwaites Glacier ice-ocean system in the WAIS is the largest such system in Antarctica.
• Almost all of Antarctica’s winter sea ice melts during the summer.

Greenhouse Emmisions/California Wildfires Facts:

• Greenhouse emissions rose 6 percent last year after a record 10 percent(Covid-related) decline in 2020, fueled by a rise in coal power and truck traffic as the world economy rebounded from the pandemic.
• In California, roughly 2.6 million acres of land went up in flames in 2021.
• One Last Thing has an amazing New York Times’ “Postcards From a World on Fire,” interactive project from the 193 member states of the United Nations.

                                The Global Temperature in 2021

 Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, published their report on global mean temperature during 2021 on January 12, 2022.

The map above shows how local temperatures in 2021 have increased relative to the average temperature in 1951-1980. In 2021, 87% of the Earth’s surface was significantly warmer than the average temperature during 1951-1980, 11% was of a similar temperature, and only 2.6% was significantly colder.

    Four Key Takeaways from the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report  

1.   The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise

Sea level along the US coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 – 12 inches (0.25 – 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050). Sea level rise will vary regionally along US coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.

Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms. (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report)

The graph below tracks the change in global sea level from 1993 -2021as observed by satellites.  The rate change is now 3.4 mm/year.

 2.   More Damaging Flooding Projected

Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland. By 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does in 2020 and can be intensified by local factors. (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report)

Regional sea level linear rate of rise (mm/yr) from satellites between 1993- 2020. (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report)

US median rate of minor high tide flooding from 98 NOAA tide gauges along coastlines (excluding Alaska) compared to relative sea level referenced to the lowest annual (1925) value. (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report)

JUST IN: SPECTACULAR FLOODING IN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA!

3.  Emissions Matter

Current and future emissions matter. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 – 5 feet (0.5 – 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 – 7 feet (1.1 – 2.1 meters) by the end of this century. (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report)

(Left) Atmospheric carbon dioxide in parts per million from 2005 to 2022 after annual variations are removed.  (Right) Coral bleaching is a consequence of a warming ocean. The image shows bleached coral off Islamorada, Florida. Credit: Kelsey Roberts/USGS

Near-surface ocean acidity has increased by 30% since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The global ocean has absorbed beween 20% and 39% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in recent decades (7.2 to 10.8 billion metric tons per year).

4.  Continual Tracking

Continuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is an important part of informing plans for adaptation. Our ability to monitor and understand the individual factors that contribute to sea level rise allows us to track sea level changes in a way that has never before been possible (e.g., using satellites to track global ocean levels and ice sheet thickness). Ongoing and expanded monitoring will be critical as sea levels continue to rise. (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report.https://aambpublicoceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanserviceprod/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf).

(Above) In general, it’s clear that global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is a direct effect of climate change, resulting from a combination of thermosteric expansion of warming ocean waters and additional water from the loss of ice from glaciers and ice sheets. The Antarctic ice sheet was stable to about 2000.

Berkeley Earth Land and Ocean Temperatures 1850- 2021.

                            Antarctica’s Riskiest, Doomsday Glacier

The threat from Thwaites: The retreat of Antarctica’s riskiest glacier (phys.org)

Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier  (Note: Skip ad to play a 2:27 minute video) is retreating rapidly as a warming ocean slowly melts its ice from below, leading to a faster flow, more fracturing and a threat of collapse,

The Thwaites ice shelf could collapse within the next three to five years. If it does, global sea levels would rise by several feet putting millions of people living in coastal locations in danger from extreme flooding.

Using this typical orientation of the Antarctic Continent, the more massive portion to the right is called the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (or simply East Antarctica). It contains the thickest ice on Earth at 15,700 ft ( 4,800 m) and the South Pole with 2,803 m (9,197 ft) depth of ice. The TransAntarctic Mountain Range, very crudely located by the blue curve above, marks the approximate boundary between East and West Antarctica. Antarctica contains 90% of Earth’s ice, East Antarctica has 80% of it. West Antarctica contains the Thwaites Glacier, Earth’s widest glacier, also called  “the doomsday glacier” because it’s believed to be an omen of what’s to come. This has led to a current joint US-UK  $50 million mission to study the Thwaites Glacier.

    (Left) Thwaite’s glacier face extends for about 120 km and varies from 18-23 m above water. This ocean-ward, floating, extension is an ice shelf which, if freely-floating, will not contribute to sea level increase if it melts; just as the melting ice already in your drink glass doesn’t cause the liquid to rise. (Right) The area of the Thwaites Glacier alone is about the size of Great Britian and grearter than Flordia.

Scientists describe the possible Thwaites Glacier collapse by three mechanisms:

1. Melting of the bottom of the floating extension of the glacier (the ice shelf) by warm ocean water as schematically shown above by the upper red line.
2. A retreating landward “grounding line” where the glacier attaches to the sloping bedrock ridge shown by the yellow dot at the end of the red curve which indicates warm water movement.
3. As the grounding line moves landward and downward along the dipping bedrock, there’s a thicker slice of ice shelf above, thereby, increasing the ice shelf mass exposed to the warm ocean. The Thwaites’ grounding line has retreated 14 km since 1992.

The Thwaites’ extended ice shelf is breaking into hundreds of fractures leading to icebergs of all sizes. Some fractures are as long as 10 km.

In the last 30 years the amount of ice loss from the Thwaites Glacier and neighboring glaciers such as the Pine Valley have accounted for more than 10% of today’s global sea level rise.

To learn more about the Thwaites Glacier open:
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Thwaites Glacier …

https://thwaitesglacier.org/sites/default/files/…..

The Antarctic has lost nearly 3000 billion (giga) metric tons of ice mass since 2002 at a current rate of 152 billion tons per year. NASA’s GRACE satellites measures mass by its effect on gravity – GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) actually uses two satellites to measure both gravity and its gradient.

One Last Thing

                      Postcards from a World on Fire

Cities swallowed by dust.

               Human history drowned by the sea.

                                Economies devastated; lives ruined.

These 193 stories show the reality of climate change. In every country in the world.

So begins the video introduction to “Postcards From a World on Fire,” an ambitious, multimedia project reported and developed by more than 40 writers, photographers, editors and designers on the Opinion desk at The New York Times. You scroll down to see how the planet is changing by tapping green buttons for sounds, videos, and learning. This is absolutely fantastic! Kudos to the New York Times.

By clicking on the globe icon you choose the country. Every country has a different format. You’ll listen to mountain gorillas in Rwanda, follow divers doing coral restoration in Belize, see flooding from cyclone Eloise in Mozambique, find out how ice melt in the Sea of Okhotsk is affecting sushi prices in Japan, and much, much, more. For the United States, one is asked to “Enter any county”. For San Diego County, California the following information follows.

Lead author of Climate Corner is George Jiracek, Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University (Geophysics). To comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner please contact treasuresdvfp.org Edited by Gary Butterfield.

The October 31 to November 12 Glasgow, Scotland 26^th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) received much more media coverage than an August report that provided up-to date-facts needed for the diplomats who met in Glasgow.

In August, 234 scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their 6^thAssessment Report. A contribution to this report by Working Group I was a Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) called “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”. The SPM is a high-level summary of the current state of the global climate that will be accessed in 2021 Fall Climate Corner. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i 

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative. Climate Corner shares a few “wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

At a Glance

• Scientists were quick to say that “COP26 hasn’t solved the problem”. COP26 president Alok Sharma said “ambitions have fallen short…we have kept 1.5 degrees alive. But its pulse is weak”. ‘COP26 hasn’t solved the problem’: scientists react to UN climate deal (nature.com)

• Climate Corner will present selected findings verbatim from IPCC’s Working Group I: “The Summary for Policy Makers” all tagged with SPM. Findings are expressed as “statements of fact and/or by levels of confidence”.

• SPM levels of confidence are given by five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high as type set in italics. However, other terms such as unequivocal, extremely likely, limited evidence, medium agreement, … are also italicized in the SPM.

• Climate Corner specifically spotlights IPCC-SPM findings of Human Influence on Global Warming, Greenhouse Gases, Global Cooling, Retreating Glaciers, Arctic Sea Ice Loss, and Global Sea Level Rises.

• Decadal predictions are reported of worse case planetary scenarios of human influence on climate change. A map predicted for the year 2100 of 2-meter (~7 feet) sea level rise in the San Diego, California area is presented.

• One Last Thing has a remarkable, interactive, New York Times sequence of space images documenting the toll on our planet that climate crisis has already brought.

IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers (SPM)

In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.

 Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

For starters:

SMP: It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the (Earth’s) atmosphere, ocean, and land.

SMP: Earth in the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850.

Human Influence

Global Warming

SPM: It’s likely that the best estimate of human-caused global surface temperature increase is now 1.07^OC. It is likely that a warming of 1 to 2 ^OC is due to well-mixed greenhouse gases in the troposphere.

History of global temperature change and causes.

(Left) Solid grey is reconstructed years 1 to 2000 with very likely variations in grey shading. Vertical bar on left side is estimated very likely range during warmest in the last 100,000 years. Observed warming in 1850 – 2020 is unprecedented in last > 2000 years. (Right) Observed (black line) is annually averaged surface global temperature changes in last 170 years. Human and natural causes are in brown and natural solar and volcanic drivers are in green.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i 

U.S. annual average temperature variations from 1859 to 2020 and projections to 2100 assuming zero level at ~1890. http://berkeleyearth.org/policyinsights/?mc_cid=b99a9b467f&mc_eid=60db7a9bf3

Difference between surface global average annual temperature and 20^th century (1880- 2020) average in degrees ^OC. IPCC climate report: Profound changes are underway in Earth’s oceans and ice – a lead author explains what the warnings mean (theconversation.com)

Human Influence

 Greenhouse Gases Responsible for Global Warming

SPM: The observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are caused by human activities and have continued to increase in the atmosphere. In 2019 the annual concentration averages were 410 parts per million (ppm) for carbon dioxide (CO₂), 1866 parts per billion (ppb) for methane (CH₄), and 332 ppb for nitrous oxide (N₂O).

Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2021 and projected values based on policies including global warming in 2100 of >4.0 ^OC and 1.5 ^OC compatible.

http://berkeleyearth.org/policyinsights/?mc_cid=b99a9b467f&mc_eid=60db7a9bf3

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) per person emissions in US and globally from 1990 to 2020 with projections to 2040.

http://berkeleyearth.org/policyinsights/?mc_cid=b99a9b467f&mc_eid=60db7a9bf3

   http://berkeleyearth.org/policyinsights/?mc_cid=b99a9b467f&mc_eid=60db7a9bf3

Human Influence

Global Cooling

 SPM: The cooling of lower stratosphere of 0^OC – 0.8 ^OC from 1979 to the mid-1990s is extremely likely caused by aerosol (related) depletion of ozone in the lower stratosphere.

 Human Influence:

Retreating Glaciers and Arctic Sea Ice Loss Cause Global Sea Level Rises

SPM: Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area since 1979.

SPM: It is very likely that human influence has contributed the observed surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet over the last two decades.

SPM: There has been no significant trend in Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2020 and only limited evidence, with medium agreement, of human influence on the Antarctica Ice Sheet mass loss.

SPM: Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 – 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018. Human influence was very likely the main driver with high confidence of global sea level increases up to 3.7 mm/year at least since 1971 with high confidence.

The lead author of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report chapter on Earth’s oceans, ice and sea level rise, climate scientist Robert Kopp , comments on the profound changes underway in  IPCC climate report: Profound changes are underway in Earth’s oceans and ice – a lead author explains what the warnings mean (theconversation.com).

“Sea level change through 2050 is largely locked in: Regardless of how quickly nations are able to lower emissions, the world is likely looking at about 15 to 30 centimeters (6 to 12 inches) of global average sea level rise through the middle of the century.

But beyond 2050, sea level projections become increasingly sensitive to the world’s emissions choices. If countries continue on their current paths, with greenhouse gas emissions likely to bring 3-4 C of warming (5.4-7.2 F) by 2100, the planet will be looking at a most likely sea level rise of about 0.7 meters (a bit over 2 feet). A 2 C (3.6 F) warmer world, consistent with the Paris Agreement, would see lower sea level rise, most likely about half a meter (about 1.6 feet) by 2100.”

How Bad Could It Be? The Worse Case Warming Scenarios

Recalling Article 2 of the Paris Agreement¹ that was signed at COP21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016:

¹ Article 2 of the Paris agreement set a target of holding global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and trying to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

The New York Times reported in 2014, before the Paris climate agreement, that the world was on track to heat up by as much as + 4.2^OC by the end of the century, an outcome that would be catastrophic! This is called Pre-Paris Pathway in the figure above. (The vertical axis is in CO₂ equivalent in gigatonnes.) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/25/climate/world-climate-pledges-cop26.html

Future Warming, by Degree above is a PowerPoint slide produced by Paul Solomon, a retired electrical engineer, co-coordinator for the New Mexico 350.org, a climate advocate group.

Climate Corner received a copy of the slide after attending a talk by Mr. Solomon in 2017. The data and conclusions (Commentary) have not been “fact-checked” by Climate Corner. But, there’s no argument that worse wildfires, drought in the SW, and coastal flooding predicted for the 2020’s have already happened. The prediction that there could be +4^OC warming in the 2060’s does not agree with the pre-Paris pathway above with +4^OC by the end of the century. However, the “Warming in the United States” plot above from Berkeley Earth does predict +4^OC in ~2060 for the Increasing Carbon Dioxide Emission scenario.

Independent of the scenario, +4^OC global warming surely would be catastrophic!    

Worse Sea Level Projections for San Diego, California

 In the article cited above in “The Conversation”, Professor Koop states:

“Furthermore, under the most extreme emissions scenario considered, one could not rule out rapid ice sheet loss leading to sea level rise approaching 2 meters (7 feet) by the end of this century. And, fortunately, if the world limits warming to well below 2 C, it should take many centuries for sea level rise to exceed 2 meters – a far more manageable situation.”

To see what 7 feet of sea level rise above high tide would mean for the San Diego, California area, home of Climate Corner, we use the on-line, interactive Program by Climate Central: A Science & News Organization.

 Land areas shaded in red are areas currently above high tide in the

San Diego area that would be submerged by 2 m (~7 feet) of sea level rise.

Those familiar with San Diego will notice that Mission Beach and the Silver Strand (between Coronado and Imperial Beach) no longer would exist. And, Ocean Beach and Point Loma are together as one island and Coronado has become two islands.

Let all of that sink in!

One Last Thing

The grim face of our climate changing planet was exposed by the New York Times in revealing interactive satellite sequences from space documenting glacial retreat in Chile, changing Arctic sea ice extent, sea level variations in the US Mississippi Delta resulting from oil and gas extraction, and wildfire scars near Lake Baikal in Russia. What Climate Change Looks Like From Space – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Lead author of Climate Corner is George Jiracek, Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University (Geophysics). To comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner please contact treasurer@sdvfp.org. Edited by Gary Butterfield.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also called the UN Climate Change Report, was released on August 9, 2021. It’s over 1000 pages long and was prepared by a working group with 234 authors from 66 countries plus 517 contributing authors. It was cleverly summarized above as a pop-up book in the San Diego Union-Tribune. It was also abstracted by Elizabeth Kolbert of the New Yorker using the IPCC’s own words: “many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming.” (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/08/23/the-uns-terrifying-climate-report).

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative. Climate Corner shares a few “wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

At a Glance

• It’s official: July 2021 was Earth’s hottest month on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov).
• On August 14, 2021, it rained at the highest point on the Greenland Icecap, the latest date ever recorded during any one year.
• The largest wildfire in California history was only 48% contained on August 29, 2021.
• A NASA satellite on August 7 imaged wildfire smoke from Russia at the North Pole, the first time in recorded history.
• Climate Corner challenges readers with U. S. energy costs and DOE’s newly released “Solar Futures Study” aka Biden’s Plan.
• One Last Thing (with a Bonus) exposes a U. S. Army Cold War coverup plan for 100’s of ICBMs hidden in the Greenland icecap; the story has science twists and climate change.

Record Summer 2021 Climate Data

It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric (Administration (noaa.gov)

( http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/)

• Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago,
• Regional records: Asia had its hottest July on record, besting the previous record set in 2010; Europe had its second-hottest July on record—tying with July 2010 and trailing behind July 2018; and North America, South America, Africa and Oceania all had a top-10 warmest July.
• The Northern Hemisphere: the land-surface only temperature was the highest ever recorded for July, at an unprecedented 2.77 degrees F (1.54 degrees C) above average, surpassing the previous record set in 2012.
• Temperatures surpassed the freezing point at Greenland Summit Station on August 14 and rain began then and fell for the next nine hours. This was the third time in less than a decade, and the latest date in the year on record, that the National Science Foundation’s Summit Station had above-freezing temperatures and wet snow. There was no previous report of rainfall at this location (72.58°N 38.46°W), which reaches 3,216 meters (10,551 feet) in elevation.

(Left) Air temperatures are significantly elevated in northern hemisphere, especially western and eastern U. S., Greenland, and Siberia on August 14, 2021 compared the average on that date. (Right) Three peaks in satellite measured Greenland surface ice sheet melt extent on July 19, 28, and August 14-15, 2021 exceed considerably the 1981- 2010 mean values. The record melt year was in 2012. Greenland Ice Sheet Today | Surface Melt Data presented by NSIDC

California’s Dixie Fire is the State’s Largest Wildfire Ever

Hotter and drier conditions this summer (and expected this fall) are causing severe wildfires throughout the western U.S. especially in California.

(Left) The Dixie Wildfire has destroyed nearly 500 homes. (Right) It ignited the forests of Lassen Volcanic National Park which normally has about 500,000 people visit the park each year.

The Dixie Fire is one of 17 active wildfires in California as of August 29.  It started on July 14, has burned through 776,695 acres and nearly 500 homes have been destroyed. There are 4,500 fire personal fighting the blaze, but still it was only 48 % contained 0n August 29 according to the California Fire Map (https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/california-fire-map/.)

Siberia Wildfire Smoke Reaches the North Pole

NASA satellite images showed wildfire smoke travelling “more than 3,000 km from Yakutia, Siberia to the North Pole”, becoming “a first in recorded history”. It added that on 6 August most of Russia was covered in smoke.

(Left) NASA image shows smoke from 100’s of forest fires over Russian Siberia on August 6.  (Right) Forest fire near village of Berdigestyakh, Siberia.

NASA Earth Observatory and Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/smoke-siberia-wildfires-reaches-north-pole-historic-first)

Environmentalists blame the authorities for letting large areas burn every year under a law that allows them not to intervene if the cost of fighting fires is greater than the damage caused or if they do not affect inhabited areas.

Electricity Costs and the U. S. Solar Futures Study

After the Appendix in the Spring 2021 Climate Corner: “Difference Between Electrical Power and Energy Explained”, there’s been a readers interest in the past and most current costs of electricity from various energy sources. So, since you know what a MWh (megawatt-hour) is, namely the electrical energy from a million watts of power turned on for 1 hour, here we go!

Visual Capitalist’s recent publication (Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources is Now Cheaper than Ever – Visual Capitalist) presents the costs of various energy sources as a graphical 2009 to 2020 comparison and a numerical table. It was published on July 5, 2021; however, the data are average numbers from Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis-version 14.0 published on October 19, 2020. See: https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2020 for more details.

Cost of electricity in $/MWh for major U. S. energy sources from 2009 to 2020.

A few comments are:

• Lazard’s average solar photovoltaic $37/MWh energy cost cited above is that for solar PV-crystalline utility scale Lazard’s average solar PV-rooftop residential cost is $188/MWh. Therefore, the levelized cost of residential solar energy is over 4 times that of utility scale solar.
• Utility scale solar photovoltaic electrical energy was the most expensive in 2009 – now it’s the cheapest having decreased by a whopping 90%. A chronicle on how this happened has been published by Gregory Nemet at the University of Wisconsin-Madison: (Nemet, Gregory F. 2019. How Solar Energy Became Cheap. New York, NY: Routledge). A YouTube on this intriguing, international development is presented by Professor Nemet at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpyqeYDT6M0.
• On-shore wind energy generation cost has decreased by 70% since 2009.
• Geothermal was the cheapest electricity in 2009 – it has increased in cost by 5% but is still less than coal, gas-peaker, solar thermal tower, and nuclear energy; the latter has increased by 33%.

Department of Energy’s New (September 2021) Solar Futures Study

 Data such as above, and much more, have contributed to the September 8, 2021, dense, 279-page treatise released by the U. S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) entitled Solar Futures Study (Solar Futures Study (energy.gov)). The study will come under extreme scrutiny since it’s already being described by the media as the “Biden Plan …” as in  Newsweek’s Biden Plan Could See Solar Produce Enough Energy to Power All American Homes by 2035 (msn.com). The study develops and evaluates three core scenarios to envision a decarbonized grid and the next decade of solar energy:

In 2020, about 80 gigawatts (GW) of solar produced ~3% of U.S. electricity demand. By 2035, the new decarbonization scenarios aim for a cumulative solar power of 760–1,000 GW, serving 37%–42% of the U. S. electricity demand. The remaining power would be mostly from other zero-carbon resources, i. e., wind (36%), nuclear (11%–13%), hydroelectric (5%–6%), and biopower/geothermal (1%). The study also analyzes the potential for a more complete decarbonization by 2050 when the installed solar capacity would increase by nearly a factor of 7.

Proposed new thermal, chemical, and mechanical storage technologies would drive electrical grid flexibility. They are now in various stages of research, development, and commercialization, e. g., Spring 2021 Climate Corner reported on the world’s largest battery storage (300 MW) now, in California.

Solar Futures modeling predicts that solar will employ 500,000 to 1.5 million people across the country by 2035. And overall, the clean energy transition will generate around 3 million jobs across technologies.

Climate Corner applauds the bold, ambitious programs but asks:

1. Has the low “capacity factor” of solar energy, specifically that there’s energy production during only 20 -25 % of the time, been considered?
2. Assuming solar residential rooftop PV factors into the Solar Futures plans, then won’t its cost need to be slashed to be more in-line with utility solar?
3. Are the added costs of storage due to transmission, both to and from the storage facility, factored in?

Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said that “Achieving this bright future requires a massive and equitable deployment of renewable energy and strong decarbonization polices.”

One Last Thing (with a Bonus)

The Cold War with the Soviet Union in the 1960s is the context of a fascinating story featuring the U. S. Army, the Greenland icecap, scientific investigations serving as a coverup, and eventual climate change.

In 1960 the U.S. Army misled a visiting TV news anchor by stating that the purpose of their new, under-ice station Camp Century in northwest Greenland was to test polar construction techniques and a nuclear power plant, along with providing a base for scientific investigations. Decades later after Camp Century was abandoned was it revealed that the scientific studies were a coverup for a sinister project called “Iceworm”, centered on the Camp. The military intended to trench and cover 1000’s of miles of hollowed-out tunnels in which an arsenal of 600 ballistic nuclear missiles on rail cars would be in constant motion to avoid detection. The ICBMs would be targeted at the Soviet Union.  But, after early tests of the proposed tunnels revealed that they would be impossible to maintain, project “Iceworm” was cancelled.

(Left) Project Iceworm trenching operation.  (Right) George Jiracek skiing near Camp Century in July 1964 – note U.S. Army cold weather garb.

In 1964 an international scientific team made a 220 km-long-traverse from the ice cap edge to Camp Century, and vicinity, testing the use of radar to measure the depth to the bottom of the Greenland ice sheet. A thickness of ~1380 m was recorded at Camp Century. This success helped launch the ground penetrating radar (GPR) technique used to measure polar ice thickness and basal conditions from surface, aircraft, and satellites. Climate Corner’s George Jiracek, then a graduate student, was part of that 1964 team. In 1966, a deep drilling scientific team at Camp Century collected the first ice core from the bottom of an ice cap (at 1387 m depth), thereby, initiating the advent of tracing past climate continuously for the last 800,000 years from ice cores.

When Camp Century was decommissioned and deserted in 1967 it was assumed that accumulating snowfall would continue to bury the base forever. In 2016, a group of scientists evaluated the environmental impact of climate change there for the coming decades. They estimated that melt water could release the abandoned nuclear waste; 200,000 liters of diesel fuel; a nontrivial quantity of PCBs; and 24 million liters of untreated sewage into the environment as early as the year 2090.

So, Arctic climate change now has moved the Camp Century snow cover from one of net accumulation to one of net ablation and neither the U.S. nor Denmark (for which Greenland is a territory) have accepted responsibility for the future climate-change-caused cleanup.

http://www.brown.edu/news/2016-10-14/campcentury

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp-Century

(Colgan et al., 2016: “The abandoned ice sheet base at Camp Century, Greenland, in a warming climate”. Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (15): 8091–8096. Bibcode:2016GeoRL..43.8091C. doi:10.1002/2016GL069688.)

A Bonus: To learn how surface ice melting on Greenland can cause glacial melting from the bottom up, thus raising global sea level, watch this NASA 1.12 minute animated video:  Animation: How a Glacier Melts Below – YouTube.

Lead author of Climate Corner is George Jiracek, Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University (Geophysics). Edited and Posted by Gary Butterfield.  To comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner please contact treasurer@sdvfp.org

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LA Dept. Water and Power Pine Tree Wind and Solar Farm Tehachapi Mt. Calif. (Irfan Khan / LA Times)

Electricity costs for solar and wind have dropped by 80 and 49% respectively, since 2009.

Earth Day 2021 call: California, fight climate change faster – Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

Greener Energy Means a Different America

Biden Wants to Slash Emissions. Success Would Mean a Very Different America. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative.  Climate Corner shares a few wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

At a Glance

• At a White House virtual climate summit attended by 40 world leaders on April 22, it was announced that the US will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030.
• A plan to achieve this ambitious proposal is condensed into eight points by the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland
• Climate Corner embraces this goal, the US return to the Paris Agreement, and a vibrant America’s “better future” dealing with the climate crisis.
• Expanding on the CGS number one point, namely renewable electricity, the world’s 5^th largest economy had 94.5 % renewable electricity on April 24, 2021 and deployed the world’s largest battery energy storage system in December 2020.
• Behind large renewable electrical energy successes are the capacity and reliability of complex, interconnected power grids.
• A clear analogy to avoid the annoying confusion between the terms electrical power and energy is presented in the Appendix.
• Meeting US climate goals relies on government, university, and industry partnerships especially for new, early-stage innovations and technologies. Such collaborations at two national laboratories, Lawrence-Berkeley and Los Alamos are featured in “One Last Thing”.

University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) says the US 2030 emissions proposal specifically means:

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>50% of electricity from renewable energy

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CO2 released from new natural gas plants to be captured and buried

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2/3 of new cars and SUVs sold to be battery-powered

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All new buildings heated by electricity instead of natural gas

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Cement, steel, and chemical industries adopting strict new energy-efficiency targets

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Oil and gas producers slashing methane emissions by 60%

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Expanding regenerative forestry and agricultural practices to pull 20% more CO2 from the air than today

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World’s 5^th  Largest Economy, California, had 94.5% Renewable Power 0n April 24, 2021

80% of California’s Electrical Power is Transmitted by the Grid System of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO).

https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2021-04-29/solar-power-water-canals-california-climate-change-boiling-point

The CAISO reported a 94.5% renewable power record on April 24, 2021. The LA Times plot below from this date traces the renewables solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydropower (the green curve). The record power occurred at about 2:30 PM PDT.

CAISO April 24, 2021 renewables power contrasts with natural gas, large hydro, and imports.

Note that there was considerable natural gas and out-of-state imports that were part of the power mix on April 24, but, at about 2:30 PM the CAISO was able to transfer over -2000 megawattts (MW) of import power that nearly canceled the approximately +2000 natural gas MW for the renewable calculation. This allowed the renewable record calculation.

Climate Corner did not anticipate the record on April 24. However, by chance it recorded the CAISO data (below) on Earth Day, April 22, 2021 for future discussions. This plot was recorded on the CAISO website at 21:45 (9:45 PM PDT). Such plots are updated every 5 minutes, daily and are publically available on the CAISO website, California ISO – Supply (caiso.com).

CAISO April 22, 2021 renewables and with other power sources. Actual, annotated MW values at 15:45 (3:45 PM PDT) time are selected.

The April 22 plot is very similar to the record April 24 plot, with additional curves for batteries (charging), nuclear, coal, and other. The CAISO site includes a cursor that allows retrieving the actual MW values for all plotted data. For example, Climate Corner was interested in the values at the approximate peak power in the renewables plot at around 15:45 (3:45 PM PDT) when they were 18,764 MW and natural gas at 4,830 MW, etc .

Many other plots are available on the CAISO website such as the individual renewable sources that comprise the renewable category as plotted below.

CAISO April 22, 2021 renewables solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, biogas, and small hrdro. Actual, annotated MW values at 21:45 (9:45 PM PDT) time are selected.

Notice (above) that geothermal and small hydro have constant values. Such constant power versus time (24 hours/7 days a week) are referred to as ”base load” or having a capacity factor of 100%. For renewable sources in the US during 2020, geothermal had the highest capacity factor at 74%; wind and solar were 35%  and 20 -25%, respectively.

Stastica.com Energy capacity factors in the U. S. by source 2020 – Bing

Note: For Climate Corner readers who would like to understand the difference between electrical power and energy please read the Appendix below.

The Complexity of Electricity Transmission: The CAISO Grid as an Example

The CAISO shares electricity in real-time with the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) that they launched 7 years ago. As the map below shows, there are currently 14 electric grid operators that allow sharing of extra electricity on the CAISO. For example, if California has extra solar power, they can sell it to Arizona who then can reduce their coal-fired power by substituting cheaper, cleaner solar energy.

                               There are currently 14 active participants in the EIM in 9 Western States and British Columbia, Canada

https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2021-04-29/solar-power-water-canals-california-climate-change-boiling-point

The obvious benefits of western multi-state EIM cooperation have been reported in the LA Times to have been collectively saving $1.2 billion.  California alone has benefited by about $300 million. However, there have been some politics that have hampered the full implication of the EIM. For example, in the summer of 2020 California had rolling blackouts on two consecutive nights leaving a half-million homes and businesses out of power for upwards of 2 ½ hours.

Given that more should be done to reduce electricity costs, fossil fuel usages, and power outages, the CAISO Board of Governors on April 21, 2021 signed a set of 2021 summer “readiness initiatives” that prioritize exports, imports, and transfers during electricity shortages that might affect Califronia and the West during the 2021 summer.

World’s Largest Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Began Operating on December 11, 2020

At 300MW / 1,200MWh, the world’s largest battery storage system so far is up and running | Energy Storage News (energy-storage.news)

Notwithstanding the California 95 % renewable electricity success story, EPIC (Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago) reported that less than 38% of overall US electricity in 2019 came from carbon-free sources. Most came from nuclear power (20%), with solar and wind accounted for only 7 and 2%, respectively (see EPIC 2021 below, p. 89-90, Fig. 2).

Thus, the announcement of the world’s largest battery storage system connected to the grid, in California, was greeted with expectations for viable future electrical power storage. Phase 1 of the Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility (MLESF) began operation on December 11, 2020. It is currently rated at 300MW/1250MWh and Phase 2 will add another 100MW/400MWhr in August 2021.  An energy to power ratio of 4 hours, E/P = 4, is used for all battery technologies. It’s sometimes called the battery system discharge time since it measures the duration that a battery storage system can deliver it’s rated power. Energy to Power Ratio | energymag

The MLESF will use surplus energy from the grid during the day to charge batteries during daylight hours and return power back to the grid when solar and/or wind production decreases. Thereby, helping to facilitate stable, ample, and reliable electricity. There will soon be an additional Tesla, Inc. 183 MW,  E/P = 4 Lithium-ion batteries system at Moss Landing site. The current battery system is from the Texas-based Vistra Corporation.   Pacific Gas and Electric, the owner of the storage facility, is a participant in the CAISO.

The current worldwide demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and utiliy-scale electrical energy storage was called “staggering” in February 2021 by the Statista Research Department. The cost is now $101/kWh, down more than tenfold in just 10 years.

New Energy Outlook 2020 | BloombergNEF – Bing.

Some say the costs are still several times too high for large-scale electric grid integration (see EPIC, 2021 below, p. 91). Microsoft cofounder and philanthropist Bill Gates is one of  them. In his 2021 book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster”, he explains how extra nighttime battery storage of electricity could cost more than daytime generation alone.  This would more than double the energy (e. g., kilowatt-hour) cost. However, Gates says he knows “brilliant engineers” who are working on new bigger, better batteries that could make large-scale storage economical. Obviously, there are investors who agree (see One Last Thing below).

https://epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/EPIC-Energy-and-Climate-Roadmap.pdf

One Last Thing

Climate Corner recognizes America’s National Laboratories who in collaboration with academics, entrepreneurs, corporations, and others nationally and internationally are joining to mitigate global warming.

Since Climate Corner is familiar with Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), they are selected for illustration purposes below. Countless cooperative examples deserve to be emphasized but only a couple of “wow” activities will be highlighted for each lab.

LANL FIDO team members deploy a mobile laboratory on the frozen sea ice of the Arctic Ocean in 2020. The German ice breaker Polarstern is in the distance.

https://www.lanl.gov/discover/publications/1663/2020-august/ends-earth.shtml

LANL began in 1943 in Los Alamos, New Mexico where scientists designed and built the first atomic bombs during the Manhattan Project. Since then LANL has engaged in many non-weapon acivities, even though it’s core mission is still “national security”. Non-weapon projects, such as the power source for the Mars Perseverance rover, are about 30% of the lab’s funding. LANL scientists were participants in the year-long MOSAiC program that was discussed in Winter Climate Corner’s focus on the Arctic. Two mobile laboratories with about 50 instruments each were moved, setup, and maintained in the Arctic by Los Alamos Field Instrument Deployments and Operations (FIDO) teams. FIDO teams rotated in two-month intervals from October 2019 on. But, this meant four-months total including to and from the German research ice breaker Polarstern while it was locked in the sea ice. LANL instruments were the largest in number, the most sophistication, and collected the most data compared to the other 60 MOSAiC institutions.

One of 11 geothermal power plants in the Salton Sea area of Califronia.

https://eesa.lbl.gov/geothermal-brines-could-propel-californias-green-economy/

The race is on to strike lithium at California’s Salton Sea – Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

This year the Berkeley Lab (as LBNL it’s often called) is celebrating it’s 90^th year. In 1931 it t was designated by Ernest Lawrence as the Civil Engineering Testing Laboratory. It was eventually named the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) in 1958 shortly after Lawrence died. In 1973 LBL dropped all weapons funding and began exclusive focus on energy and environmental research. The culture of the Berkeley Lab today is built on the legacy of 9 Nobel prizes awarded to Lab scientists. Lab scientists just received over $7 million to work with two private companies to evaluate and analyze the extraction of battery-grade lithium dissolved in the geothermal brines in the Salton Sea area of southern California.They also received $1.7 million to use geophysics to better locate geothermal production wells in the Salton Sea area and at the Geysers in northern California, the #1 geothermal field in the world.

Appendix

Difference Between Electrical Power and Energy Explained

Climate Corner discussions above used the terms power, in megawatts (MW) and energy, in megawatt-hours (MWh). Climate Corner is aware that many people believe the terms energy and power are equal. They are not – this is a common mistake and should be corrected, especially as we make informed decisions about electrification on global, national, state, local, and residential levels. Climate Corner believes that an analogy between an electric power plant and a pumping water well will help. Pumping water is described by a time-rate of gallons per minute. After a number of minutes, the gallons delivered is calculated by multipling the gallons per minute and the number of minutes. The water bill that you pay is for the gallons of water delivered, not the rate that it was pumped.

For an electrical power plant, power is the time-rate that electrical energy is delivered.  But, the time-rate is not explicitly included in the units of power that are, e.g., watts, kilowatts, or megawatts. To calculate what you pay for electricity, you multiply the time-rate (the power) by the time of use to yield the electrical energy in units of, e.g., watt-seconds, kilowatt-hours or megawatt-hours. This is the amount of electrical energy delivered just as gallons are the amount of water delivered. Most home electric bills charge for the energy used in kilowatt-hours.

The energy calculation is actually the area under the power versus time curves for a chosen time interval, for a chosen power source in the plots above. Clearly, solar power and energy dominate the last plot above.

The energy calculation is very easy for the constant geothermal power of 960 MW above. In one hour, the geothermal energy produced is 960 MWh; for 2 hours it’s 1920 MWh, etc.  (Climate Corner readers who remember their calculus class recognize that electrical energy is the time-integral of the electrical power.)

Just as one rates a non-pumping water well by what it’s capable of (it’s capacity in gallons per minute), an electrical power plant is rated by it’s capacity (power), usually in megawatts or gigawatts.

Climate Corner thanks Carl Gable of Los Alamos National Lab and David Alumbaugh of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab for sharing press releases of their laboratories’ recent research activities.

Lead author of Climate Corner is George Jiracek, Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University (Geophysics). To comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner please contact treasurer@sdvfp.org. Edited by Gary Butterfield.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

German Icebreaker Polarstern deliberately frozen in Arctic Ocean during 2019- 2020 MOSAIC scientific expedition.

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative. Climate Corner shares a few “wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

At a Glance

•  After previously focusing on Greenland and Antarctic ice melt, the Arctic Ocean takes Winter Climate Corner’s center stage. The year-end (December 2020) Arctic sea ice losses over the 42-year satellite record are 1.97 million sq km (761,000 sq mi), approximately three times the size of Texas. It led to a “record-smashing” 3 ½ months of a “transitable” open Arctic Ocean, particularly along the passage adjacent to Russia.

•  A shrinking Arctic sea ice opens new shipping lanes, resource exploration, and geo-political unrest. Russia is expanding its military presence and the US Navy has responded. Scientists from 20 countries have just completed a two-year, ship-based portion of the largest Arctic scientific expedition in history.

•  Diminishing Arctic sea ice is ultimately caused by a warming Earth from fossil fuel greenhouse emissions. Climate Corner quantifies this and explains the ice-albedo feedback and Arctic amplification processes. Computer simulations now predict that the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free by the summer of 2035.

•  It is affirmed that planetary greenhouse emissions were reduced in 2020 because of COVID-19 virus restrictions.

•  Finally, a new facet in future Climate Corners called “One Last Thing” is introduced. ExxonMobil’s goal for the 2040 global energy mix comes under scrutiny.

Record 2020 Arctic Shipping Access Follows High Summer Temperatures and Low December Sea Ice Extent

 Northern Siberia experienced “record-shattering” 2020 summer temperatures including the first temperature of over 100^o Fahrenheit north of the Arctic Circle, recorded in June 2020 at Verkhoyansk, Russia. This contributed to an unprecedented, continuous ship passage time-window between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in 2020. As illustrated below, 25 years ago such trips were very rare.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported that the Arctic sea ice extent averaged during December 2020 was the third lowest in the 42-year satellite record. Overall, 2020 was historically the 2^nd warmest Arctic year and it had the 2^nd lowest minimum Arctic sea ice extent ever recorded (see map below).

Ho, ho, ho-hum December | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (nsidc.org)

http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2020

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(Left) Average December 1978 – 2020 Arctic Sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers. The linear decline (shown) for December sea ice extent is 3.6 % per decade.  Ho, ho, ho-hum December | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (nsidc.org)   (Right) Comparison of the minimum Arctic sea ice extent in 2020 on September 15 to the 1981-2010 median extent on that same day historically in yellow. This 2020 extent is the second lowest ever recorded. Notice the excessive 2020 sea ice loss along the Russian coastline. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147306/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-second-lowest-extent

US Navy Releases 2021 “a Blue Arctic”    

Russia, with an Arctic Ocean coastline of 15,003 miles (compared to 1060 miles for the US), is investing heavily to enhance its Arctic defense and economic sectors. To counter, on January 5, 2021 the US Navy published a blueprint called “a Blue Arctic” that would “increase its presence on, under, and above the Arctic”. It allows for permanent, rotational, or temporary military forces as well as adding equipment and infrastructure across the region. Training and exercises with allies and partners in and around the Arctic will be increased.

https://beta.documentcloud.org/documents/20441321-arctic-blueprint-2021-final

Currently the farthest north permanent US military base is Thule Air Base in northwest Greenland. A construction cost in 1951-52 was estimated to be over $2.5 billion in today’s dollars.The logistical apects were considered comparable to the Manhattan Project or the Allied Normandy landing. (The Ice at the Top of the World, Jon Gertner, 2019)

The multi-year, 20-nation Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAIC) project cost $150 million. The accumulated pool of scientific data and samples is expected to carry Arctic research long into the future.

After a Year in the Ice, the Biggest-Ever Arctic Science Mission Ends – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

No budget is proposed for the Navy’s “a Blue Arctic” plan.

(Left) Plotted, arbitrarily, are the origins of two major Arctic Ocean shipping lanes beginning at the Bering Strait. The red arrow route traverses along the Russian coast to Norway and the blue arrow sea lane passes along the Alaskan/Canadian coasts to the west coast of Greenland. (Right) Temporary US Navy Arctic operations, such as the surfacing of the USS Honolulu in 2014, have been visited by polar bears which are endangered because the sea ice they rely on to hunt from is disappearing.

Annual Arctic Sea Ice Change Explained

 A combination of land, sea, and global temperatures are the key drivers of the physical response of Arctic sea ice. In winter, the Arctic Ocean has maximum sea ice coverage and thickness with an insulating layer of snow. Fresh snow is the planet’s brightest natural surface reflecting a huge 85% of incident solar radiation. The ratio of reflected to incidence radiation is called the reflection coefficient, also the albedo: 0.85 in this case. (Note: There are dependencies on the incident angle and wavelength(s). Both are neglected in this discussion.) As temperature rises in spring and summer, the snow and sea ice melts, exposing the dark ocean underneath. Open ocean absorbs much more solar radiation (90%) and only reflects about 10%, therefore, it has an albedo of 0.10. The higher solar absorption of open ocean increases the warming of the ocean and the air above, thereby, melting more ice from the bottom and top. This positive sea ice-radiation feedback loop over the course of the year is called the ice-albedo feedback. Of course, global warming is caused by fossil fuel carbon emissions (absorbed by the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere). Therefore, it adds an overall, increasingly warmer, background temperature to the feedback process.

Arctic amplification (AA) posits that Arctic greenhouse-induced warming is higher than the rest of the planet and affects mid-latitude weather and climate. AA is expressed as a ratio or difference between the Arctic (65-90^oN) versus global or northern hemisphere (0-90^oN) surface air temperatures. One process to explain AA has two steps: 1. Increased solar absorption and storage during the low-sea-ice, warm season is followed by: 2. Long-wavelength release of this energy that amplifies Arctic warming in the cold season. Such solar radiation storage and release is not ice-albedo feedback.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00954-y

Ice-free Arctic Ocean Predicted by 2035

Recently, very impressive computer simulations, support a shocking prediction of an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the summer of 2035!

https://phys.org/news/2020-08-evidence-loss-arctic-sea-ice.html

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss, Nat. Clim. Chag. 10, 928-932

CO₂ Emissions Decline During COVID-19

An unexpected reduction in global atmospheric CO₂ in 2020, compared to 2019, was caused by COVID-19 restrictions that significantly reduced energy consumption in every category except residential use (decreases were largest in surface travel, air travel, and industry). The Global Carbon Project reported that the US and the world had 2020 decreases in CO₂ emissions of 12 and 7 %, respectively. Still, the global 2020 CO₂ level is 61% higher than in1990. Berkeley Earth concludes that a record was set in 2020 for the warmest annual land-average on Earth since 1850.

https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pdf

http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2020

Global fossil CO₂ emissions from 1990 to 2020 (projected) in giga (billion,10⁹) metric tons of CO₂. 2020 GtCO₂ is projected to be 6.7% below the 2019 value because of COVID-19 restrictions.   _{https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pdf}

One Last Thing

Climate Corner often reads exxonmobil.com’s EnergyFactor website. Their prediction of the global energy mix in 2040 was displayed in January 2020 in The power of natural gas – Energy Factor (exxonmobil.com), under Part Four, The Future of Energy as:

*Larger, bolder labels have replaced the smaller, faint lettering.

Do you think that a reasonable goal for the year 2040 would be for 75% of the global energy mix to be oil, natural gas, and coal? These three are the worst global emitters of CO2, the most dominant greenhouse gas! Also, do you believe that other renewables, meaning solar, wind and geothermal, will amount to less than 10% of all global energy in 2040? With these ExxonMobil energy goals, the prediction that global warming could destine our planet Earth to have the climate of Venus within 1000 years when human life would be unsustainable, seems more likely! The Venus prediction was made by Stephen Hawking in the last book he published, in 2018, the year he died. (Brief Answers to the Big Questions, Stephen Hawking, 2018)

Lead author of Climate Corner is George Jiracek, Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University (Geophysics). To comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner please contact treasurer@sdvfp.org.  

Masks were worn except when speaking and social distancing was observed throughout.

Jim Brown welcomed all with a short discussion of how Armistice Day was founded by President Wilson after WW1 to remind us to never again choose war to handle our problems.  He noted the cost in lives and treasure was too high for all concerned and to use this day to remember to work for peace!

After WW2, the Armistice Day recognition somehow morphed into Veterans Day which then glorified American victories in war and featured fabulous weapons of destruction and military might.  The headstones are inscribed with the names of the fallen soldiers of San Diego during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

After the opening comments, as a solemn memorial, we read the names of the San Diego’s fallen soldiers of the Iraq and Afghanistan war.

In Flanders Fields by Kate Moore

Closing our ceremony was the singing of “In Flanders Fields” by Kate Moore, 14, in honor of her father a combat naval aviator pilot and veteran of the recent wars, who died of cancer just before she was born.  Click on the link above to play the video.

“Work for Peace everyday not just Armistice Day”

Jim Brown

San Diego Veterans For Peace
Armistice/Veterans Day
November 11, 2020
Balboa Park
San Diego CA.
SDVFP TEAM FOR TODAY was Jim Brown, Paul Ross, Vic White, George Jiracek, Sean McCrea, Sean’s daughter Chloe and her two brothers, and the Tara Moore-Fox family.

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative. Climate Corner shares a few “wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

At a Glance

• After the Summer Climate Corner discussed millimeters of sea level rise, parts per billion of methane, and trillions of US $, this Fall Climate Corner answers why the military spent $5 billion on a natural disaster and is terrified of climate change.
• We then consider why, when, and where humans may soon migrate many hundreds of miles because of a warming planet with increasing climate extremes such as record droughts, violent storms, and devastating wildfires.
• With the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announcing the elimination of established methane emission standards, learn how environmental groups and State governments have fought back. An abridged methane overview is included.

Military Worries About Readiness for Climate-Related Disaster Relief.

“The military is terrified of climate change. It’s done more damage than Iranian missiles”. So reads the title of the September 20, 2020 NBC’s Digital opinion section THINK. It details the incredible $5 billion damage to Tyndall Air Force Base from Hurricane Michael in 2018. The story, and its links, reveal a military worried about maintaining its resources in readiness for climate-related disaster relief during unprecedented storms and wildfires. https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/u-s-military-terrified-climate-change-it-s-done-more-ncna1240484

The current 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season has been historic. Louisiana is still recovering in November from Hurricanes Laura, Delta, and Zeta (CNN). It is only the second time that the Greek alphabet was needed for Atlantic-Basin storm names. Laura was the strongest and Delta the second-strongest storm this year. Delta had the fastest “rapid intensification rate” (time from tropical-depression-to-Category-4 hurricane) ever recorded in the Atlantic-Basin. On October 28, Zeta became the 11^thnamed storm to make U. S. landfall in a single season, setting a new record (USATODAY). We know that warmer oceans generate and sustain more intense hurricanes. And, of course, ocean warming is a direct result of greenhouse gases in the troposphere.

Why and When We Flee?

The Sunday, September 25, 2020 New York Times Magazine, in partnership with ProPublica and the Pulitzer Center, produced a grim, shocking, public exposé of the devastating consequences of a warming planet on all facets of American life, including massive, near-future, population migrations. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/15/magazine/climate-crisis-migration-america.html

 Where Will We Go?

The NY Times Magazine climate-related prophecies for Americans followed the statistical global temperature predictions in the May 2020 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. For thousands of years human populations have mainly concentrated in narrow geographical regions with, surprisingly low, mean annual temperature niches in the 50^os Fahrenheit. Assuming unabated climate warming, the predictions for the next 50 years are that the niche will shift geographically more than it has in 6,000 years to higher latitudes, potentially resulting in the migration (displacement) of millions of people.

 The Future of the Human Migration

PNAS Appendix Figure S10, bottom right column. Global regions of the geographical change (Displacement) of the human population niche in 2070 relative to now (Current). (Displacement) for the next 50 years expressed as the population difference between a predicted model scenario (2070 RCP8.5) and the distribution now (Current). Yellow areas are regions of zero (0) predicted displacement, or stable population. Red regions (negative displacement) are regions of population decline and green areas (positive displacement) plot regions of population increase. Predicted migration would be from red areas to green areas, e.g., from the southern U. S. Gulf Coast region to the Northern U. S. and Southwestern Canada. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/21/11350.full.pdf

Follow-up: Methane and the EPA

On August 13, 2020 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) moved to rollback Obama-era regulations on methane flaring, leaking, and transport. This was reported to having been done, in part, because EPA data shows that methane leaks from domestic oil and gas wells have been steady over the last decade. This is in complete conflict with the documented largest methane leak in the nation’s history that occurred from 2018 to 2019 as reported in Climate Corner Summer 2020. https://rhg.com/research/the-rollback-of-us-climate-policy/#_ftn1

On September 14, a coalition of 24 states and municipalities filed a lawsuit with the U. S. Circuit Court of the District of Columbia opposing the rescission of the methane rules. Separately, on September 19, the U. S. Court of Appeals for the D. C. Circuit paused the EPA’s rescission order pending review of a request by 10 environmental groups led by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) for summary vacatur (reversal) of the order. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/epas-rollback-of-oil-gas-methane-rules-paused-by-court-amid-multiple-lawsuits/

 Methane: An Abridged Overview

Carbon dioxide is far more abundant in the atmosphere than methane and persists for 1000’s of years so it is the most dominant greenhouse gas. However, methane has a “global warming potential” (GWP) that is 72–84 times more than carbon dioxide in a 20-year horizon and 23–­25 times more on a 100-year time frame. (GWP compares greenhouse energy per unit mass.) Methane emissions from ruminant animals such as beef and dairy cattle, sheep, and goats as burps and expelled gas are nearly as large as those from fossil fuels (natural gas is about 90% methane). So, the attached “sheep cartoon” has it right by showing the CH₄ methane tetrahedral molecules flying off into the atmosphere. Different chemical structures, e.g. CH₄, H₂O, CO₂, absorb and emit specific frequencies of infrared radiation (heat) that are responsible for greenhouse warming or cooling. Reducing ruminant sources of CH₄ are mostly nutritional, e. g., feeding cattle more grass, hay, seaweed, and asking humans to eat less beef. Since California now requires dairy farmers to cut methane emissions by 40 % by 2030, the University of California at Davis is studying the seaweed option. https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/can-seaweed-cut-methane-emissions-dairy-farms#:~:text=The%20UC%20Davis%20project%20is%20first%20in%20the,gas%20emissions%20from%20California%E2%80%99s%201.8%20million%20dairy%20cows.

For the latest on methane emissions see the data-rich June 2020 report from Stanford University: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed2

To study how atmospheric warming works, Climate Corner recommends the American Chemical Society’s Climate Science Tool Kit: https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/getting-started.html

Lead author of Climate Corner is George Jiracek, Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University (Geophysics). To comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner please contact treasurer@sdvfp.org.

SDVFP CLIMATE CORNER

(Summer 2020)

The facts and consequences of global climate crises are awesome, depressing, and frightening in human and planetary terms. Climate Corner reviews timely climate science and news reports and selects a few that elicit a resounding “wow” response, positive or negative. Climate Corner shares a few “wow words and images”, with links, to motivate you to read more.

AT A GLANCE

(in SDVFP Climate Corner Summer 2020)

• Learn how space scientists accurately predict how much global sea level has risen from the recent melting of polar ice.
• Find out how those responsible for the largest methane greenhouse gas release ever recorded in the U. S. are getting away with it and what State has said “that’s enough”.
• Discover who, in the face of Covid-19, has mobilized societal, scientific, governmental, and investment communities to develop a visionary, accelerated, global net-zero emissions plan requiring trillions of USD.

Polar Ice Melt Exposed from Space

Largest Ever U. S. Methane Release

Methane release from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico in 2018-2019 is the largest ever measured from a U. S. oil and gas basin. Satellite spectroscopy and surface data confirm a methane venting and flaring leakage rate that is ~60% higher than the national oil/gas average.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/17/eaaz5120.full

The July 12 New York Times reports that petroleum companies with flaring and leaking wells in the Permian Basin and elsewhere, faced with demising profits, are going out of business, paying executive millions prior to bankruptcy, and leaving the cleaning-up of polluting wells to taxpayers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/climate/oil-fracking-bankruptcy-methane-executive-pay.html?referringSource=articleShare

On July 20 the New Mexico Environmental Department drafted “groundbreaking” rules to cut methane venting and flaring in the Permian Basin by 98 percent.
https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/draft-rules-would-cut-methane-venting-flaring-in-new-mexico-98-in-six-years/article_cd01068c-cb64-11ea-99e5-630453f31a0c.html

International Energy Agency (IAE) Actively Addresses Emission Goals

The 30-member-countries International Energy Agency’s (IEA) dense, 182-page, July 2 report calls for energy innovation spending to triple by 2030 to meet global emission goals. This, when Covid-19 is triggering the biggest fall in energy investments in history. https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-innovation

On July 9, following the July 2 IEA report, the IEA organized a livestreamed Clean Energy Transitions Summit with all sessions archived as videos. The attending ministers represented countries accounting for 80% of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. This was this year’s largest global gathering on energy and climate.
https://www.iea.org/events/iea-clean-energy-transitions-summit

The Summer 2020  inaugural issue of Climate Corner views the climate crisis from three very different scales: 1. Polar ice-thickness changes in meters per year; 2. Methane release in parts per billion, and 3. A visionary, accelerated, global net-zero emissions plan requiring trillions of U. S. dollars. Climate Corner applauds the large number, and variety, of international authors and reviewers represented but also how local action, e.g., from New Mexico environmental regulators on the methane issue, is critically important. Of course, this is the “Think globally, act locally” mantra.

The lead person for SDVFP Climate Corner is George Jiracek, a Navy veteran and Professor Emeritus at San Diego State University with BS, MS, and PhD degrees in physics, geophysics, and engineering. Mount Jiracek, in Antarctica, is named for him; he was a Fulbright Scholar to Australia; invited lecturer at venues around the world and recipient/co-recipient of several teaching and research awards.

IN THE END

Readers of the Climate Corner are encouraged to contact newsletter@sdvfp.org
to comment and/or to suggest contributions to SDVFP Climate Corner.

We, as members of the San Diego Veterans For Peace, denounce the ongoing instances of police violence against Black bodies and people of color, this time resulting in the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota. We also stand in opposition to the State of Minnesota’s and the Minneapolis police force’s militarized response to the right to protest.

As Veterans For Peace, we know that increased militarization in our communities will never bring peace. We know that peace is only achieved with a strong commitment to justice. As veterans who served in various wars, we know there is a connection between increasing racist violence in the United States and the massive indiscriminate killing of hundreds of thousands of people in other lands. Growing racism against black, brown and Muslim people in the United States is a reflection of the racism that justifies killing non-white people abroad. What we are seeing at home is merely a reflection of our policies overseas.  In fact, we believe in “Peace At Home, Peace Abroad” and we know that escalating violence never solves problems.

Our nation’s consistent option for militarization and the use of deadly force when it is not needed—at home and abroad—is exactly why we find ourselves in this situation. It makes no sense to think more violence and trauma heaped upon the Minneapolis community will quell the unrest. The Governor has moved beyond using a militarized police force to using the military. He is relying on intimidation and fear to end this. The only thing that will quiet this storm is justice.

We stand as one with those who oppose violence and seek justice.  We call on those in the Minnesota National Guard and those in other police forces and branches of the US military services to refuse to serve violent and racist interests.

Executive Committee

San Diego Veterans For Peace

Medea Benjamin

The environmental justice movement that is surging globally is intentionally intersectional, showing how global warming is connected to issues such as race, poverty, migration and public health. One area intimately linked to the climate crisis that gets little attention, however, is militarism. Here are some of the ways these issues—and their solutions—are intertwined.

1. The US military protects Big Oil and other extractive industries.The US military has often been used to ensure that US companies have access to extractive industry materials, particularly oil, around the world.The 1991 Gulf War against Iraq was a blatant example of war for oil; today the US military support for Saudi Arabia is connected to the US fossil fuel industry’s determination to control access to the world’s oil. Hundreds of the  US military bases spread around the world are in resource-rich regions and near strategic shipping lanes. We can’t get off the fossil fuel treadmill until we stop our military from acting as the world’s protector of Big Oil.
2. The Pentagon is the single largest institutional consumer of fossil fuels in the world.If the Pentagon were a country, its fuel use alone would make it the 47th largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, greater than entire nations such as Sweden, Norway or Finland. US military emissions come mainly from fueling weapons and equipment, as well as lighting, heating and cooling more than 560,000 buildings around the world.
3. The Pentagon monopolizes the funding we need to seriously address the climate crisis.We are now spending over half of the federal government’s annual discretionary budget on the military when the biggest threat to US national security is not Iran or China, but the climate crisis. We could cut the Pentagon’s current budget in half and still be left with a bigger military budget than China, Russia, Iran and North Korea combined. The $350 billion savings could then be funnelled into the Green New Deal. Just one percent of the 2019 military budget of $716 billion would be enough to fund 128,879 green infrastructure jobs instead.
4. Military operations leave a toxic legacy in their wake.US military bases despoil the landscape, pollute the soil, and contaminate the drinking water. At the Kadena Base in Okinawa, the US Air Force has polluted local land and water with hazardous chemicals, including arsenic, lead, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), asbestos and dioxin.Here at home, the EPA has identified over 149 current or former military bases as SuperFund sites because Pentagon pollution has left local soil and groundwater highly dangerous to human, animal, and plant life. According to a 2017 government report, the Pentagon has already spent $11.5 billion on environmental cleanup of closed bases and estimates $3.4 billion more will be needed.
5. Wars ravage fragile ecosystems that are crucial to sustaining human health and climate resiliency.Direct warfare inherently involves the destruction of the environment, through bombings and boots-on-the-ground invasions that destroy the land and infrastructure. In the Gaza Strip, an area that suffered three major Israeli military assaults between 2008 and 2014. Israel’s bombing campaigns targeted sewage treatment and power facilities, leaving 97% of Gaza’s freshwater contaminated by saline and sewage, and therefore unfit for human consumption. In Yemen, the Saudi-led bombing campaign has created a humanitarian and environmental catastrophe, with more than 2,000 cases of cholera now being reported each day. In Iraq, environmental toxins left behind by the Pentagon’s devastating 2003 invasion include depleted uranium, which has left children living near US bases with an increased risk of congenital heart disease, spinal deformities,  cancer, leukemia, cleft lip and missing or malformed and paralyzed limbs.
6. Climate change is a “threat multiplier” that makes already dangerous social and political situations even worse.In Syria, the worst drought in 500 years led to crop failures that pushed farmers into cities, exacerbating the unemployment and political unrest that contributed to the uprising in 2011. Similar climate crises have triggered conflicts in other countries across the Middle East, from Yemen to Libya. As global temperatures continue to rise, there will be more ecological disasters, more mass migrations and more wars. There will also be more domestic armed clashes—including civil wars—that can spill beyond borders and destabilize entire regions. The areas most at riskare sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South, Central and Southeast Asia.
7. US sabotages international agreements addressing climate change and war.The US has deliberately and consistently undermined the world’s collective efforts to address the climate crisis by cutting greenhouse gas emissions and speeding the  transition to renewable energy. The US refused to join the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Climate Accord was the latest example of this flagrant disregard for nature, science, and the future. Similarly, the US refuses to join the International Criminal Court that investigates war crimes, violates international law with unilateral invasions and sanctions, and is withdrawing from nuclear agreements with Russia. By choosing to prioritize our military over diplomacy, the US sends the message that “might makes right” and makes it harder to find solutions to the climate crisis and military conflicts.
8. Mass migration is fueled by both climate change and conflict, with migrants often facing militarized repression.A 2018 World Bank Group report estimates that the impacts of climate change in three of the world’s most densely populated developing regions—sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America—could result in the displacement and internal migration of more than 140 million people before 2050. Already, millions of migrants from Central America to Africa to the Middle East are fleeing environmental disasters and conflict. At the US border, migrants are locked in cages and stranded in camps. In the Mediterranean, thousands of refugees have  diedwhile attempting dangerous sea voyages. Meanwhile, the arms dealers fuelling the conflicts in these regions are profiting handsomely from selling arms and building detention facilities to secure the borders against the refugees.
9. Militarized state violence is leveled against communities resisting corporate-led environmental destruction.Communities that fight to protect their lands and villages from oil drills, mining companies, ranchers, agribusiness, etc. are often met with state and paramilitary violence. We see this in the Amazon today, where indigenous people are murdered for trying to stop clear-cutting and incineration of their forests. We see it in Honduras, where activists like Berta Caceres have been gunned down for trying to preserve their rivers. In 2018, there were 164 documented cases of environmentalists murdered around the world. In the US, the indigenous communities protesting plans to build the Keystone oil pipeline in South Dakota were met by police who targeted the unarmed demonstrators with tear gas, bean-bag rounds, and water cannons—intentionally deployed in below-freezing temperatures. Governments around the world are expanding their state-of-emergency laws to encompass climate-related upheavals, perversely facilitating the repression of environmental activists who have been branded as “eco-terrorists” and who are subjected to counterinsurgency operations.
10. Climate change and nuclear war are both existential threats to the planet. Catastrophic climate change and nuclear war are unique in the existential threat they pose to the very survival of human civilization. The creation of nuclear weapons—and their proliferation—was spurred by global militarism, yet nuclear weapons are rarely recognized as a threat to the future of life on this planet. Even a very “limited” nuclear war, involving less than 0.5% of the world’s nuclear weapons, would be enough to cause catastrophic global climate disruption and a worldwide famine, putting up to 2 billion people at risk. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has set its iconic Doomsday Clock to 2 minutes to midnight, showing the grave need for the ratification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The environmental movement and the anti-nuke movement need to work hand-in-hand to stop these threats to planetary survival.

To free up billions of Pentagon dollars for investing in critical environmental projects and to eliminate the environmental havoc of war, movements for a livable, peaceful planet need to put “ending war” at the top of the “must do” list.