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Draft Pick Scouting Report: #16 Nikola Vucevic

Sebastian Pruiti — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 15:30:15 +0000

For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands. With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.

With the 16th overall selection in the draft, the Philadelphia Sixers selected Nikola Vucevic, a 6’10″ big from USC who is very talented offensively and underrated as a defender. As the lockout continues, Vucevic has been playing overseas, first with Montenegro in EuroBasket and now with KK Buducnost.

Strengths

Post Offense

Standing at 6’10″ Nikola Vucevic is a big body who had a height advantage over most of his defenders. Smartly, USC decided to use this size to their advantage by posting Vucevic over 42% of the time. When he makes the catch on the block, Vucevic is at his best when he is turning around his left shoulder. This means when he makes the catch on the left block, he’s turning to the middle and when he is making the catch on the right block, he is turning towards the baseline. In terms of PPP when turning around his left shoulder, Vucevic posted a PPP of 1.111 on the left block and a PPP 1.182 on the right block (both numbers in the top 15 percent of all college players). His go to move on the block when making his turn around his left shoulder is the hook shot, a shot he attempted 62% of the time. On those attempts he shot 64.6%, and it makes sense, considering he has a wingspan of 7’4.5″ that hook shot is pretty much unblockable:

On the left block, Vucevic does a great job of establishing position and then once he gets position in the paint, he is able to turn to the middle, extend for the hook, and use his great touch to get a shot over the defense. On the right block, Vucevic does a great job of faking towards the middle and then turning baseline for the hook. That quick little fake to the middle is able get the defense off of Vucevic’s back giving him space to get the hook shot up.

Isolation Defense

Vucevic is actually a much better defender than you’d expect an offensive minded big to be. Vucevic was isolated 22.3% of the time and he was able to hold opponents 28.3% shooting during those isolation situations. What’s interesting is that teams tried to take Vucevic off of the bounce, attempting to drive 84.1% of the time, but they were unable to take advantage:

What I like about Vucevic on the defensive end is that he is very smart about how he uses his length/size. He knows he has the length to bother shots, so he backs off of his man pretty far off, because he knows he can make up that distance with his long arms. That prevents him from getting blown by quicker defenders while still allowing him to contest jumpers.

Weaknesses

Turnovers

Despite being very talented offensively, Vucevic does has a tendency to turn the basketball over, doing so 10.1% of the time of all possessions. A surprising amount of turnovers come off of possessions described as “cuts” by Synergy, as he turns it over 10.2% of the time. Since cuts are a situation where you are usually making the catch and then quickly going up with it, that is way too many turnovers. Even more surprising is that Vucevic turns it over 14% of the time when making a “Basket Cut” or catching the ball in the area around the rim:

There are two problems I have with Vucevic. First, he doesn’t have the greatest hands. He can make the catch (most of the time) if the pass comes right too him, but if he has to reach for it, it will more often than not clang off of his hands. Once Vucevic does make the catch, he has a tendency to bring the basketball down. This is a huge problem for someone with Vucevic’s size because he is basically bringing the basketball down to everyone else and letting them get their hands on it, knocking it away. Vucevic needs to learn how to make the catch, keep the basketball high, and quickly going up with it. That will help prevent turnovers.

Pick And Pop Shooting

For his size, Vucevic is an above average shooter who has shown a great ability to stretch the defense. You would think that this would lend to Vucevic being a good pick and pop type of player, watching a teammate come off of his ball screen, spot up, and knock down the jumper. For whatever reason though, Vucevic really struggles when shooting in pick and pop situations, knocking down just 33.3% of his shots in those situations:

Vucevic’s biggest problem in pick and pop situations is that he has a really hard time getting his feet set. When Vucevic knocks down shots, it is usually when he has his feet set and he is able to step into the catch and get the shot off easily. In pick and pop situations, Vucevic is on the move and he doesn’t get to his spots quick enough, meaning he makes the catch while his feet are still moving. That means he doesn’t have good balance and his shots will be off because of that.

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The more I watch Nikola Vucevic play, the more I like the Sixers’ selection of him. He is a very smart player who knows how to use his size well, both offensively and defensively, and that allows him to have success that I think can translate to the next level. A couple things he really needs to do better is keep the basketball up when making the catch and get his feet set in pick and pop situations.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #15 Kawhi Leonard

Sebastian Pruiti — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 06:49:24 +0000

Out of nowhere, the Spurs made a trade for Kawhi Leonard, a player that they seemed to be very high on. So high, they were willing to trade back-up point guard, and Gregg Popovich favorite, George Hill to Indiana so they could acquire Leonard.

Strengths

Forcing Turnovers

If I were to pick out Leonard’s biggest strength, it would be his on ball defense. Maybe the biggest indicator of how good he is defensively is his ability to force turnovers when defending ball handlers, both in isolation situations and in the pick and roll. When in isolation situations, Leonard forced a turnover 23.8% of the time, holding opponents to 37.5% shootings. In pick and roll situations where he defended the ball handler, Leonard 23.7% of the time, giving up a PPP of just 0.658 (putting him in the top 35% of all college players). The first thing that you notice about Leonard on tape is his length. He has an incredibly long wingspan, 7’3″ according to DraftExpress, and that allows him to do things defensively that some other defenders can’t do:

With that length, he doesn’t have to reach in on dribble penetration, allowing him to stay in front and bother drives by being in the passing lanes (again with his long arms). However, when the offensive player does stick the ball in front of him, his hands are quick enough to go for the steal without drawing contact or committing a foul.

In pick and roll situations where he is defending the ball handler, Leonard’s length is really on display. Leonard’s length allows him to play the pick and roll in a pretty interesting way:

What Leonard does is he forces the ball handler into the screen, goes over it, and reaches in as the ball handler tries to penetrate. I don’t how many defenders can be successful doing this, especially at the NBA level, but Leonard makes it work because of his length. Almost every time that Leonard gets the steal in the pick and roll, the ball handler thinks he is clear but then at the last second Leonard gets his hand on the ball and knocks it away.

Defensive Rebounding

Last season, Kawhi Leonard was one of the best defensive rebounders in college basketball, not just for his position, but as a rebounder in general. When looking at the top players in terms of Defensive Rebounding Percentage, Leonard finished 13th among all college players, grabbing 26.6% of available defensive rebounds according to KenPom. Leonard isn’t the most fundamentally sound rebounder, but he uses his physical attributes well enough to allow him to get his hands on opponents’ misses:

In addition to his length, Leonard has freakishly large hands, and once he gets those hands on the basketball he is going to be the one coming out of a crowd with it. Leonard doesn’t hold his box-out as long as I would like to see someone hold their box-out, but he does do a good job of reading the basketball off the rim and putting himself in a position where he can get his hands on the ball off the rim and secure the rebound. If you are good enough reading the ball off of the rim, boxing out isn’t as important as it would be for someone who isn’t in the right position more times than not.

Weaknesses

Shooting

We’ve seen how beneficial Leonard’s length is on the defensive end, but on the offensive end it is a bit of a hindrance, especially when it comes to shooting. According to Synergy Sports, Leonard shot just 31.1% on his jump shots and the biggest problem that I have seen with his shot in college was his length:

When Leonard is rising up and getting into his shooting motion, all that length needs to go somewhere. The result is Leonard’s form naturally taking the basketball way behind his head, and that is where he was releasing the basketball from. You don’t see too many shooters who are comfortable/consistant with a release point that is way behind his head. There is word that Leonard shooting form is revamped and his release point is now in front of him (I was looking for video of this, but unfortunately couldn’t find/acquire it), if this is in fact the case, that is a step in the right direction and it is a way for Leonard to turn this big weakness into a lesser one.

Running Pick And Roll

As of right now, with the lockout going on and with no Summer League or preseason games, it is hard to say how the San Antonio Spurs plan to use Leonard offensively. Will he be in the Bruce Bowen/Richard Jefferson mode, spotting up in the corner and waiting for the basketball to come to him or will he have ball handling responsibilities (sort of like George Hill)? If the Spurs plan on using Leonard as a ball handler, one of the things the he is going to have to work on is his decision making when handling the basketball in pick and roll situations. Leonard isn’t a great in the pick and roll, posting a PPP of 0.723, putting him in the bottom half of all NCAA players. The reason for the low PPP is the amount of turnovers that Leonard commits in these situations, giving the ball away 14.9% of the time:

The biggest reason for all of these turnovers is Leonard’s poor decision making. Almost every time that Leonard gets a ball screen, he is looking to score out of it. He’s not looking for the roll man, he’s not looking for a screener popping out around the elbow, he’s looking for his own offense. This mentality is great when there is a lane to drive through, but Leonard is looking to attack even when there is no lane. The problem here is the defense is able to get in position to take the charge or force the turnover.

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Despite the obvious weaknesses, I do think that Kawhi Leonard has the potential to be a very good NBA player, especially considering the team that drafted him has a knack of drafting and developing players. Leonard’s physical tools put him at a great advantage on the defensive end, but it remains to be seen if he can overcome them on the offensive end and have an immediate impact with San Antonio.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #14 Marcus Morris

Sebastian Pruiti — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 14:49:52 +0000

Immediately after his brother Markieff was selected by the Phoenix Suns, Marcus Morris was drafted by the Houston Rockets. It is hard to tell the Morris brothers apart just by looking at them, but when you look at their game, it is obvious that they play differently, even when they both have success doing the same thing.

Strengths

Post Play

Much like his brother, who was selected one spot higher, Marcus Morris scored at an elite rate this past season when playing in the post. Out of the 155 post up possessions, Morris scored 182 points, posting a PPP of 1.174, placing him in the top 3% of all NCAA players in the post, while shooting 61.5%. Unlike his brother, who is also great at playing in the post, position doesn’t really matter to Marcus, because he is much better when facing up out of post situations. While facing up, Morris is able to use his shooting ability and his quickness to put a lot of pressure on the defense, resulting in a lot of success. When he faces up, Morris posts a PPP of 1.18 while shooting 64.3%. Maybe more impressive is the fact that he draws a ton of fouls when facing up, drawing contact 21% of the time:

There are a few reasons why Morris is successful when facing up. First, he’s quick for his position. One of Morris’ favorite move is catching with his back to the basket, a quick sweep as he faces up, and then attack the baseline. It’s a great move and before the defender knows it, Morris is usually by them. However, but what really makes him effective is that he has the ability to counter that move and attack the middle if the baseline is taken away. Combine that with his ability to face up and knock down a jumper if you play off of him, and Morris is very hard to stop on the block.

Pick And Roll Offense

Like his brother, Marcus Morris has a tendency to rely on popping out when putting himself in pick and roll situations, doing so 69.8% of the time he sets a ball screen. However, unlike his brother, Marcus’ shotmaking is a strength and that allows him to be a threat when popping out. This past season Morris hit 47.8% (an eFG% of 60.9) of his shots when popping out, posting a PPP of 1.1, which was good enough to finish in the top 25% of all college players. Watching him play the pick and roll on tape and it looks familiar to another pick and pop player currently in the NBA:

This should remind you a lot of David West. Like West, Morris isn’t really concerned about setting a solid screen. Instead, he is more concerned with popping out and getting his feet set. The fact that he isn’t setting a good screen allows him to get open and allows him to get off a good shot, one that he can knock down consistently. Unlike West, Morris is willing to put the ball on the floor after popping out in pick and pop situations. So if you close out too hard on him, he can put the ball on the floor and go right past you.

Weaknesses

Transition Offense

Morris is an athletic big who can handle the basketball a bit, so it is surprising to see him struggle in transition. On the break, Morris’ biggest problem is that he turns the basketball over way too much. Overall, he turned it over 12.3% of the time in transition, according to Synergy Sports. Even worse, as the ball handler in transition, Morris turns it over 16.7% of the time. Morris, who usually makes good basketball decisions on offense (in terms of when to shoot when to attack), seems to struggle with his decision making when rushed:

With the ball in transition, Morris doesn’t seem to pick out the right pass or he tends to force the issue, putting himself in pretty tough positions. Without the basketball, Morris is trying to think one, two, or maybe three steps so he is doing many things before he even catches the basketball. The result? Happy feet and a fair amount traveling violations as he makes the catch.

Post Defense

Looking at the tape and at the numbers, Marcus Morris looks like he can be a well rounded defender. However, there is one area where Morris really struggles and that is on the block. Last season, Morris gave up a PPP of 0.84 to opponents posting him up, putting him in the bottom 50% among all college players. Additionally, Morris ends up committing a foul 15% of the time when he is posted up. The reason why Morris struggles so much is that he tends to give up post position way too easily, and after that position is given up, he allows his man to back him down too easily:

I know that I have probably been comparing Marcus to his brother Markieff a little too much in this scouting report, but I am going to do it again here, and I think it is really important. In Markieff’s scouting report, I talked about how he fights for position on the defensive end and how he uses his body to keep his man from backing him down. Marcus does not do this, and as you can see in the clip above he plays off of his man when he has the basketball. He is not meeting his man with his body, and the offensive player in the post is able to take advantage of that gap and back down Marcus to get position. Also, that gap allows an offensive player to turn, face, and hit a jumper on Morris before he can get there can close the gap in time.

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All things being considered, Houston’s selection of Marcus Morris is a very good one. He can do a lot of things well and if you combine him with a smart/quick point guard you have a potentially lethal pick and pop threat on your team who can do a lot of things and put pressure on the defense. However, for Morris to go from a nice player to a very good player he is going to have to improve some things. First, he needs to make better decisions when put in situations where quick decisions are required. When he starts thinking one or two steps ahead, he starts getting a little flustered. Also, Morris has to work on his post defense. Offensively, he is probably at his best as a 4, but if he doesn’t work on his post defense, opposing teams will take advantage of him.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #13 Markieff Morris

Sebastian Pruiti — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 07:05:54 +0000

With the 13th pick, the Phoenix Suns drafted forward and twin, Markieff Morris. For the past couple of seasons, it seemed that the Suns have employed the worst brother of a NBA tandem, but with the selection of Markieff Morris, the Suns might have finally got the better brother on their team.

Strengths

Post Play

This past season with the Kansas Jayhawks, Markieff Morris really showed that he knows how to play with his back to the basket. 34.1% of his touches on offense were post touches, and he was able to uses those possessions very efficiently. Out of the 157 post possessions that Morris had this past season, he scored 152 points, posting a PPP of 0.968, which put him in the top 16% among all college players while shooting 50.9%. Counting foul shots, Morris scored on 51% of his post possessions. One of the things that makes Morris so effective in the post is that he knows how to use his body to work for position allowing him to get exactly where he wants before he makes the catch on the block:

What I like about Morris and his post game is that he is a smart player. In the above clip, Morris wants the basketball right on the block, however his defender fronts him. Instead of trying to get in front and making more work for himself, he simply puts his arm into his defender’s back and pins him, providing a passing lane for his teammate at the top of the key. Once he makes the catch, he recognizes that he needs to go up quickly to avoid the help coming on the weakside.

Posting up and getting good starting position is all about how you use your body and Morris simply understands that:

In all of these clips there is one constant, once Morris gets his defender on his back, he is not letting him work around to bother the pass. This allows Morris to set up exactly where he wants and make the catch right on the block. Once he does that, he is able to use his touch to finish with a nice dribble hook in the middle or a turn around jumper along the baseline (both shots that require good position to be effective).

Post Defense

As good as Morris is on the block with the ball, he is just as good on the block defensively. This past season, Morris finished in the top 5% of all college players in PPP allowed, giving up 0.463 points per possession when opponents post him up. In addition, opponents were shooting just 27.4% on post possessions while forcing turnovers 29.5% of the time. Throughout the course of the season, Morris forced more turnovers on the block (28) than shots made (17):

The key to Morris’ post defense is strength. When his opponent makes the catch on the post, they try to back him down, but Morris is able to keep opponents from making any type of power move just by being stronger than his opponent. Also, he’s smart about his strength. He’s not pushing with his arms, he’s not using his forearms, but he’s sticking his chest out, keeping his arms out of it, and using that chest to meet defenders. A telling stat is that out of the 95 post possessions that Morris defended, he committed just 7 fouls. That’s because he is letting his chest and not his arms do the work.

Weaknesses

Pick And Roll Offense

When you find out that there is a big that will start playing for the Phoenix Suns, the first question you ask is “can he play in the pick and roll?” and rightfully so. As long as the Suns continue to have Steve Nash on their roster, they are going to continue to need bigs who play in the pick and roll. The only area where Morris isn’t in the top 20% of PPP among all college players is as the roll man in pick and roll situations. Morris is in the bottom 49% among all college players, posting a PPP of just 1.0 while shooting 45.8%. The reason why Morris struggles in my opinion is that he pops out way too much. As the roll man in pick and roll situations, Morris rolls to the rim 46.2% of the time. When he does he is effective, shooting 60%. On the other hand, Morris pops out 53.8% of the time, where he is shooting just 35.7%:

Sure, Morris is a decent shooter, hitting 43.1% of all jumpers, but he is way more effective when he is cutting to the rim, using his athletic ability to put pressure on the defense (for example he is shooting 77.2% on all cuts to the rim). Especially playing with a guy like Steve Nash and having a popping option like Channing Frye already on the roster, Morris needs to have the willingness to roll to the rim just about every single time he sets a screen.

Pick And Roll Defense

In addition to playing the pick and roll poor on the offensive end, Morris is pretty bad when it comes to defending the pick and roll as well. In fact, Morris was in the bottom 6% of all college players when it comes to PPP allowed in pick and roll situations. In my opinion, Morris’ biggest problem when defending the pick and roll seems to be effort:

Morris usually does a good job initially defending the pick and roll, when it comes to hedging at the ball handler. But where Morris struggles is when he is returning to his man. At that point, Morris seems very uninterested in returning to his man and that leads to a lot of open lanes/jumpers for the man that Morris is defending. Even when Morris does get back to his man, he usually isn’t there quick enough to take away position, allowing his man to finish over him.

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In my opinion, Markieff Morris is a very interesting pick for the Phoenix Suns. He almost immediately gives the Suns a legitimate post threat, something that I don’t know if they had on their roster. He is also a guy who can defend the block, using his size and strength to keep opposing 4s from scoring on him with his back to the basket.

What is interesting about this pick is that his strength isn’t in the pick and roll game. He has the potential to be a very nice complement to Channing Frye’s pick and pop style, but he needs to have the rolling to the rim mindset of a guy who doesn’t shoot great out of the pick and pop. If he rolls to the rim on at least 60% of his ballscreens, I expect him to have a successful rookie season.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #12 Alec Burks

Sebastian Pruiti — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 17:04:31 +0000

In the past two seasons, Alec Burks really exploded onto the scene as a wing who can put up numbers and get to the rim. His final season at Colorado was enough to convince the Utah Jazz, who don’t really have a penetrating wing on their roster, to use their second lottery pick on him.

Strengths

Creating His Own Offense

Most likely Alec Burks best skill is his ability to create his own offense, using his dribble to beat his man, get in the lane, and finish at the rim. In isolation situations, Burks has posted a PPP of 0.897, which places him among the top 23% of all college players last season. Burks is very quick and he is a very good ball handler, and that allows him to beat defenders:

When in isolation situations, Burks quickness is on display when he changes direction. Usually, Burks drives to the rim consist of at least one change of direction cross-over dribble, putting the defender on his heels and allowing him to get to the rim. Once he does get to the rim, Burks has a soft touch that allows him to convert a high percentage of shots. On shot attempts “around the rim” as labeled by Synergy, Burks posts a PPP of 1.242 (which puts him in the top 25% among all college players) on shooting percentage of 59.7%.

In addition to finishing around the rim, Burks has a unique ability to draw contact on his shot attempts, drawing fouls at a very high rate. According to Synergy Sports, Burks drew fouls on 18.8% of his total possessions. For reference, Kevin Martin, who is considered one of the best in the league at drawing fouls for his position, drew fouls on 19.4% of possessions. The key to Burks’ ability to draw fouls is body control:

In addition to being unafraid of contact at the rim, Burks likes to lean into and get his body into defenders when they are in the air. He has the wingspan to draw the contact and still get the shot over long defenders, allowing him to get the shot at the rim and draw shooting fouls.

In addition to the half court, Burks’ quickness helps him create his own offense in transition. In his final season with Colorado, Burks posted a PPP of 1.192 in transition, putting him among the top 27% of all college players last year.

Burks, who is a very good rebounder for his size and position, has the ball handling ability to take the rebound and bring the basketball down the court himself. When that happens, Burks isn’t stopping unless someone on the defense steps up to stop him. If that doesn’t happen, Burks will take the ball all the way to the rim and finish. Burks is also very good at filling the lane, making the catch, and finishing in transition as well.

Passing

You look at the way Burks plays and his scoring numbers, and there is a tendency to think that he is a gunner. That isn’t really the case, as Burks possesses the ability to become a very good passer in the NBA.

When watching Burks on tape, it becomes pretty apparent that not only is Burks a willing passer, but he is a very good passer. Burks isn’t going to be the type of player who will run an offense and get guys involved that way. Where Burks really shows off his passing ability is when he penetrates and draws help defense. Burks is very good at recognizing the help, seeing where it is coming from, and then getting the ball to the open teammate.

Rebounding

I mentioned it briefly earlier, but Burks is a very good rebounder for his size and for his position. Last season with Colorado, Burks grabbed 8.3 rebounds per 40 minutes (according to Draft Express), putting him second among all college wings:

Where Burks really excels is when the ball is in the air. Burks has the ability to read the ball in the air, see where it is going to come off of the rim, and get in position to grab the rebound. If the ball does come off of the rim out of his area, Burks has a tremendous will to seek the ball out and go get it. When you are as good as Burks in transition, being able to grab rebounds yourself and go before the defense gets set is huge.

If there is one thing I don’t like about Burks’ rebounding style is that he doesn’t hold box outs long enough. That could hurt him, but he should eventually make an adjustment, holding his box out longer then using his pursuit skill to still grab the rebound and get the ball.

Weaknesses

Jump Shooting

As good as Burks is attacking and finishing at the rim, he is just as bad when it comes to his jump shot. Last year, Burks shot 73-237 (30.8%) on all jumpers and he was even worse on jump shots taken off of the dribble, making just 40 of his 147 attempts, or 27.2%. When he is attacking the rim, Burks’ jumper is almost an afterthought, and that is a problem:

Burks’ biggest problem is that he finds himself off balance on a large percentage of his jump shots, especially when they come off of the dribble. This is because when Burks is attacking, he is almost always thinking “get to the rim.” When he is stopped, his jump shot is almost his last resort, so he really isn’t prepared to actually take his jumper, and that is why he almost always isn’t set and almost always doesn’t go straight up and down.

The pressure Burks had on him to score for Colorado was great, so maybe that played into the number of off-balance jumpers he took, but if this continues in the NBA, it is going to be a major problem for him.

Defense

The biggest hole in Burks’ game is definitely his defense. Despite being quick, long, and a pretty good athlete, Burks just doesn’t seem to be a very good defender at this point in his career. This past season, Burks allowed 0.875 PPP when he was isolated, putting him in the bottom 30% of all NCAA defenders. He also committed fouls on 15.6% of his defensive possessions:

One of the reasons why Burks gets beat so easily is that he has the tendency to get out of his stance way too early. More often than not, Burks finds himself standing straight up when trying to defend a ball handler. Not in an as athletic stance, Burks gets beat easier and he needs to resort to reaching in more, resulting in more fouls.

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I actually like this pick for Utah. Right now, their only wings under contract being Gordon Haywood, C.J. Miles and Raja Bell, three guys who are more shooters than slashers. Burks can be a nice change of pace player coming off of the bench for Utah, being that scoring sixth man in the mold of Jamal Crawford. Though Crawford and Burks’ games are very different, they could have the same impact for their respective teams next season. Plus, with Burks not needing to be that primary scorer, you may see less off balance jumpers, meaning he can be more efficient in the NBA.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #11 Klay Thompson

Sebastian Pruiti — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 12:58:31 +0000

There is no question that Jimmer Fredette was in that group of elite shooters among the players available in the 2011 draft. Right along with him was Klay Thompson, who the Golden State Warriors drafted one spot behind him.

Strengths

Shooting

There is no question that Thompson’s biggest strength is his shooting ability. Thompson has a very smooth, yet quick, repeatable shooting stroke with a release point that is higher than most. Thompson feasted on the perimeter last year with Washington State, knocking down 40.3% of all the jump shots he took (64.3% of all shots he took last year), while posting a PPP 1.094 on those shots (placing him among the top 15% of all NCAA players last year).

The area where Thompson is most impressive is in catch and shoot situations. This past season, Thompson shot 50% in catch and shoot situations where he was considered “unguarded” by Synergy sports, posting an eFG% of 71.4%:

Thompson’s shooting form is very repeatable and very easy. Anytime he is open in a catch and shoot situation, it is a pretty good bet that he is going to be able to knock down the shot. What helps him get open is his ability to work off of the basketball and use screens. Despite not being the most athletic guy, Thompson is smart enough and good enough to get a little bit of separation working off of the ball and at his height (6’7″) and with his high release, that little bit of separation is all he needs to be able to get a shot off:

In my opinion, what is most impressive about Thompson and his ability to work off of the basketball is that he is always catching the ball squared up to the rim. He’s not catching then turning his body to square up, so he isn’t wasting time after the catch. Thompson makes the catch, and if the separation is there, he is pulling up, and usually knocking the shot down.

It’s not just in catch and shoot situations where Thompson can knock shots down. He is also very good off of the dribble, and again, it is due to his quick shot and high release point. Off the dribble, Thompson shot 40.2% and his PPP of 0.957 put him in the top 12% of all NCAA players:

Again, all Thompson really needs is a sliver of space and he is going to be able to get his shot off. His ability to knock down this midrange jumper off of the dribble is important because teams are going to close out hard on Thompson off of the catch, putting themselves at a disadvantage and giving Thompson an opportunity to create separation with the dribble. The fact that Thompson can use his dribble to get an open shot is always in the defense’s mind, and if that causes them to hesitate on the closeout for even a second, Thompson is at an advantage.

Passing

We already looked at one way Thompson is able to take advantage of the attention he gets when he makes the catch and is a threat to shoot the basketball (setting up the defense for a midrange jumper). Another way that Thompson is able to take advantage of that attention is by hitting the open man when the defense steps up to him. Thompson is a very good passer and again, he is able to use his height and vision to be able to see over help defenders and make the correct pass more often than not:

You see the attention that Thompson gets when making his catch, and instead of forcing things, he is smart enough and a good enough passer to hit the open man in a position where his teammate can score.

Weaknesses

Defense

While Thompson’s lateral quickness doesn’t really hurt him on the offensive end (his shooting ability evens things out), it does hurt him defensively. Playing off of the basketball on defense all of last season, he didn’t face a lot of one on one situations, but he did face a lot of catch and shoot situations (according to Synergy this made up 46.4% of his total defensive possessions) and he was in the bottom 50% in terms of PPP allowed. Thompson’s lack of footspeed forces him to close out hard on his man, and when that happens, they tend to be able to blow right by him:

In the NBA, where wing players are isolated much more often (Thompson only faced 21 isolation possessions defensively all of last year), Thompson is going to have a lot of trouble staying in front of people. His length should help, but it will only help if he is able to stay in front and contest, and I don’t know how often that will happen.

Finishing At The Rim

According to Synergy, Thompson is in the 55th percentile when looking at PPP around the basket. While it isn’t terrible, it’s bad for Thompson as it is a considerable drop-off in efficiency in relation to his numbers everywhere else on the court. As I mentioned before, Thompson needs to be a threat to make the defense pay for over-committing on the catch. If Thompson struggles finishing around the rim, which he does right now, teams are going to close out hard on him and let him drive. Right now, it is a better outcome then letting him shoot:

Thompson’s biggest problem right now when he attacks the rim is the fact that he shies away from contact. Instead of going up strong, into the defense, and going up towards the rim, Thompson usually ends up contorting his body to get away from the contact and that usually ends up with him taking his lay-up going away from the rim. Help defenders in the NBA are only going to get quicker and stronger, so Thompson needs to understand that he needs to draw contact instead of avoiding it when attacking the rim.

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It is hard to say the type of impact Klay Thompson will have this season. I’m higher than most on him, but that doesn’t mean he is going to have a productive rookie season where he ends up starting, especially considering that his new coach, Mark Jackson has talked about defense every chance he got (and he tried to trade away Monta Ellis – who plays no defense – for Andre Iguodala). Can he crack the starting rotation? I don’t know. However, I do think he could be a very good sixth man type of player this season, coming in, working off of the basketball, and knocking down shots.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #10 Jimmer Fredette

Sebastian Pruiti — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 14:57:04 +0000

Jimmer Fredette. I don’t know if there is a more polarizing draft pick in this year’s draft class. There are some who think he will be a bust, some who think he will be an average player, and everyone else who is flocking to see him where ever he goes thinks he will be a superstar. The Kings made a few interesting moves to be able to draft Fredette, and here is a look at his strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths

Shooting Ability

The fascination with Jimmer Fredette starts with his shooting ability, where he seems to show unlimited range, and is a threat to take and make a shot as soon as he crosses half-court. The type of shot doesn’t matter to Fredette, who can knock down threes off of the dribble, coming off of screens, or in catch and shoot situations. Within BYU’s offense, Fredette has the freedom to shoot whenever he wants, and that is such a threat to the defense because he can knock down both open and closely contested shots consistently.

In catch and shoot situations, Fredette shot 43.5% (with an eFG% of 64.8%) last season, posting a PPP of 1.296 (putting him in the top 10% of all college players). What’s interesting, is that Fredette is actually a better shooter when contested (as described by Synergy Sports), knocking down 45.2% of his contested shots and just 40.5% of all open shots. My guess is that his 40 footers that he took in BYU were considered open, and with better shot selection and more of a leash in the pros, both numbers should rise.

Fredette is also a very good shooter off of the dribble, knocking down 38.8% of all jumpers off of the dribble (putting him in the top 15% of all NBA players). His catch and shoot ability actually helps free him up off of the dribble as well. Any time Fredette makes a catch, defenses run at him in fear of him pulling off of the catch. This gives him lanes and puts the defense off balance, allowing Fredette to get slivers of space, and that is all he needs to get shots off.

Passing Ability

Clips of Fredette attempting long pull-up threes have given him the reputation as a selfish gunner, but this is hardly the case. Yes, BYU’s offense started and finished with Fredette, but he always seemed to be a willing passer, able to hit the open man if the defense starts to focus too much on him. In addition, Fredette is a strong enough ball handler with either hand to get himself to spots on the court where he is a threat, forcing help. When that help comes, Jimmer is able to get the ball to the open man.

In isolation situations where Jimmer Fredette makes a pass (15.5% of Jimmer’s isolation possessions), his teammates shot 58.3% and posting an eFG% of 71.9%. Players don’t put up these type of numbers if the passes aren’t getting to the correct spots.

Weaknesses

Defense

The biggest problem that Fredette will have when making the jump to the NBA is inability to play defense. At BYU, his offense more than made up for his lack of defense, but in a pro system where he won’t have the shots like he did in college, he is going to have to try and play some defense to prove his worth and stay on the court.

Fredette’s average, at best, athletic ability really hurts him on this end as his poor lateral quickness allows him to get beat by quicker ball handlers. Despite not having the tools to play tough defense, the most worrying thing might be his mindset on the defensive end. Fredette almost seems disinterested defensively, and this leads to poor help and poor positioning off of the basketball. Even worse, when he does get beaten by his man with the ball, he tends to give up instead of trying to recover, hoping that his help can get the job done.

Finishing At The Rim/Over Help Defenders

Despite showing a nice mid-range game that should translate to the NBA well, Fredette could have trouble finishing in the paint at the next level. While he might be crafty enough to finish over his man, he has struggled at times finishing over help defenders. Fredette doesn’t always have the athletic ability to finish with help coming, so he is forced into double-clutched, circus-style lay-up attempts. This puts the basketball on a tee for the help defense to block it, and if he does get it over the help, there is a small chance the ball actually goes in.

According to Synergy, Fredette shoots 53.9% on shots around the rim, posting a PPP of 1.156 (putting him in the bottom 60%). On runners, Fredette shot just 28.3%, posting a PPP of 0.674 (bottom 45% among all college players). While a floater is something that you can develop, seeing these kind of numbers and these struggles against college help defenders is really concerning, especially considering in the NBA, help defenders are faster, more athletic, and smarter about when they send their help. I expect continued problems finishing around the rim for Fredette’s first couple of seasons.

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So how do I think Fredette will perform in the pros? I am a little more down on him than others, and I think his ceiling is a scorer off of the bench or maybe a starter on a bad team. What scares me about Fredette is that the things he needs to improve upon are things that don’t get better with hard work, tape sessions, or more reps. He needs to become more athletic. His lack of athleticism hurts him both defensively and finishing at the rim. Could he become an ok defender? It’s possible (J.J. Redick has done it), but I just don’t see it happening right away.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #9 Kemba Walker

Sebastian Pruiti — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 12:14:11 +0000

Despite having a similar player in D.J. Augustin, the Charlotte Bobcats took Kemba Walker with the ninth pick when he dropped to them in the draft. What’s interesting is that even though they play in similar ways, Charlotte’s coaching staff is making noise about playing Augustin and Walker together.

Strengths

Scoring Off The Pick And Roll

When Walker is looking for his own shot coming off of a ball screen, he is a very dangerous player. He does a good job of creating space for his shot, but what makes him really special is his ability to get to the rim when coming off of a ball screen. Walker was in the top 15% of all college players (in terms of PPP) when taking it all the way to the rim coming off of a ball screen drawing a foul 33.3% of the time (Basically, every three times Walker attacked the rim off of a screen, he went to the free throw line):

What makes Walker so tough to cover when coming off of a ball screen is that he has a combination of quickness and shooting ability. Walker is a good enough shooter that if you go under the screen, he is going to pull up and knock down the jumper. This means that defenses need to try to go over screens while hedging. Walker is simply too quick and is able to take advantage by driving by the hedge man and getting into the lane (while not shying away from contact). Finally, he is good enough with the ball that he won’t turn it over often (only turned it over 3% of the time when attacking the rim).

Scoring Using Screens Off Of The Ball

If the Bobcats’ coaching staff is telling the truth and Walker and Augustin will in fact be splitting time, they each are going to have to spend some time working off of the ball offensively. With Connecticut, Walker was very comfortable and effective doing this. When working off of screens, Walker posted a PPP of 1 (top 35%), while shooting 41.8%.

When coming off of screens away from the basketball, Walker looks like he is a shooting guard. What I mean by that is he knows how to use screens away from the basketball properly. He doesn’t just run off of the screen and look for the basketball, he sets up the screen, faking one way the going the other, changing speeds, and a lot of other little things that help get him open. After coming off of the screen, Walker does a good job of getting in a position where he can catch and quickly make a move.

Weaknesses

Pass/Shot Decision Making Off Of Ball Screens

Unlike some high-volume scorers in pick and roll situations, Kemba Walker is actually a pretty good passer out of the pick and roll (teammates shoot 45.4% on shots that come from Walker’s passes out of the pick and roll). The problem with Walker is that he has a tendency not to pass it enough. Walker shoots the basketball 63.8% of the time he comes off of a ball screen, and while most of the shots are good ones (see the clips above), the real problem is when he comes off of the screen with his mind made up about shooting the ball. This tends to create some bad shots from Walker.

The problem with Walker coming off of screens with his mind made up is that he is going to be shooting whether or not he is open. Walker is a good shooter, but when taking jumpers off of ball screens, his shooting percentage is an ok 35.2% (you would expect it to be much higher). The reason why it is so low is because a good chunk of his misses are bad shots that are contested by bigs hedging over. Instead of settling for a jumper there, Walker should look to try and find an open man.

Off Ball Defense

While Walker at the SG position makes sense offensively, it doesn’t really make sense defensively. Not only is his size (which teams would definitely attack) a problem, but but when defending away from the ball, Walker struggles. Walker is in the bottom half of PPP allowed in both Spot-Up and Off Screen situations:

When in help position, Walker has a tendency to ball-watch, losing sight of his man. This hurts him when he tries to help and recover, because he is helping and getting back to where he thinks his man is, but because he lost sight of him, he doesn’t notice that his man isn’t in the same spot. So basically Walker is helping and recovering to a spot on the court where he thinks his man is, but he actually isn’t there.

When defending shooters off of screens, Walker has doesn’t stay attached to his man’s hips. Giving him way too much room when making the catching coming off of the screen. This is important, because in the NBA at the SG position, you are going to be covering guys like Ray Allen, J.J. Redick, and Kyle Korver. Guys who need only a sliver of space to get a shot off (and even less when their defenders are Walker’s size), so if you can’t stay attached, you can’t defend these guys.

Ball watching hurts Walker here too. There are times where he gets caught watching the ball and misses his man taking off to use a screen away from the ball. To try and catch up, Walker tries to go under screens, but instead of helping him, that hurts him even more (especially with a very good shooter).

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So was Walker the right pick for the Bobcats? It is hard to say if they drafted him to be the guy at the point guard spot, then yes. If they want him to share the court (both offensively and defensively) with Augustin, them I’m not sure, because I don’t know how effectively they can play together.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #8 Brandon Knight

Sebastian Pruiti — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 15:56:24 +0000

Out of all the draft prospects who were projected to go in the early lottery, Brandon Knight was definitely the most interesting. That’s because he had widest range of projections. There were rumblings that he could go second or third, but if he got passed up there, who knows where he could fall. Eventually, he fell to Detroit, who had the 8th pick in the draft.

Strengths

Getting In The Lane/Finishing

Despite not being a crazy athletic ball handler like a Derrick Rose or John Wall, Knight simply has a knack to get into the lane with relative ease. He has a quick first step and and uses hesitation/misdirection moves very well, allowing him to get his defender on his hip and get by him on his way to the paint. Off of the catch, Knight loves using the jab step and it is easy to see why, he does a great job of using it to catch his defender leaning one way or the other and then takes advantage, going by him with the dribble:

Again, unlike a Derrick Rose or a John Wall, Knight isn’t going to explode to the rim and finish with powerful dunks. He’s simply not that type of athlete. However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t able to score once he gets into the paint. According to Synergy, on shots around the basket Knight shoots 62.4%. Knight has a great touch and he loves to use that touch when shooting a variety of floaters over bigger help defenders:

Being able to hit these type of floaters consistently really puts pressure on the defense. Because he is more of a threat to shoot the floater farther away from the paint (instead of needing to get to the rim to take a lay-up), the help needs to meet Knight farther out away from the rim. This forces the help defender to take more chances and forces more rotations, essentially opening up many more passing lanes for Knight.

Shot Off The Dribble

In addition to his ability to knock down a floater in the paint, Knight is also a very good shooter coming off of the dribble. Knight has a strong shooting form and when he rises up off of the dribble, he does a great job of staying on balance and going straight up and straight down and not floating in either direction. This is what allows him to be so consistent when shooting off of the dribble. This is a tremendous tool for Knight, especially when he is using it in pick and roll situations:

Since Knight has shown an ability to get in the paint and be a threat in the paint, it forced defenses to try and go under ball screens with Knight as the ball handler. The problem is that he can knock down shots off of the dribble. You go under the screen, he rises up and knocks the jumper down. You go over the screen, and he gets in the paint and knocks down a floater. That’s extremely hard to defend.

Weaknesses

Shot Selection

Despite showing an ability to be a threat behind the three point line and a capable shooter from NBA-range, Knight’s shooting numbers across the board weren’t the best. The reason is that poor shot selection really causes Knight to be an inconsistent shooter. Knight is prone to settling for contesting jumpers, and at times you can tell as soon as he catches it that he wants to go up with the shot and nothing is going to stop him:

These contested shots more often than not result in misses that hurt his shooting percentage and his offensive efficiency. Poor shot selection also calls into question Knight’s point guard instincts. At this point, Knight is a much better scorer than he is as a passer, so it makes sense that in certain situations Knight falls back into “score mode” which is something he is comfortable with, rather than trying to find the open man and create open shots for others.

Turnovers

In addition to poor shot selection, Brandon Knight is very prone to turnovers, especially when driving with his left hand. Knight’s biggest problem is when he goes into “score mode.” Knight puts his head down and looks to attack the rim, but there are times he penetrates too much and gets in a situation where he doesn’t have any passing options to kick the ball out.

Knight always seems to take one more dribble than he should when he is in passing situations. He takes a little too long to identify the open player and by that time it is too late to make the pass, but that doesn’t keep Knight from trying. Also, Knight doesn’t do a great job handling hard traps when coming off of ball screens. We mentioned how much of a scoring threat Knight can be in PNR situations, and because of that, teams started trapping him coming off of ball screens. Knight had a really hard time making passes out of these traps, turning the ball over 9.5% of the time when the defense commits to him as he comes off of ball screens.

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Will Knight have a successful rookie season? I think it all depends on how the Pistons use him. I don’t think he is quite ready to be the full time ball handler for the team (though based on what is out there, Knight is a tremendous worker and I have no doubt in my mind that he will pick it up a late in his rookie season, early in his sophomore season), but if the Pistons put him on the wing and let him use his jab step/misdirection to attack the land and give him PNRs on the wing, he could have a successful rookie season offensively.

Draft Pick Scouting Report: #5 Jonas Valanciunas

Sebastian Pruiti — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 15:00:54 +0000

Past Editions: Kyrie Irving (#1) | Derrick Williams (#2) | Tristan Thompson (#4) | Jan Vesely (#6) | Bismack Biyombo (#7)

As I mentioned when looking at Tristan Thompson, Jonas Valanciunas to the Cavs was looking like a lock, but as we got closer to draft night, it was getting more and more up in the air, partially due to Valanciunas’ buy-out forcing him to stay overseas for a year and partially due to how impressed they were with Thompson’s workouts. As we all know, the Cavs took Thompson allowing Jonas Valanciunas to fall in the Raptors, who need a true center, lap.

Strengths

Off Ball Offense

Valanciunas’ biggest strength offensively is when he is working off of the basketball cutting and in pick and roll sets, and his international team, Lietuvos Rytas was smart enough to build Valanciunas’ offense around that, as 43.3% of his offense was either cuts or pick and rolls (if you want to add offensive rebounds, off ball offense makes up 65.1% of Valanciunas’ offense).

As the roll man in pick and roll sets (23.2% of all offensive possessions) Valanciunas posted a PPP of 1.434, which puts him in the top 4% of all international players as he shot 74.7%. Valanciunas rolled to the rim 97% of the time in pick and roll sets (slipping the screen the remaining 3%), showing his ability to find lanes when rolling to the rim, making the catch, and getting the ball on the rim:

Valanciunas doesn’t set the best screens and that probably needs to be improved upon (though we have seen guys like David Lee, David West, and Amar’e Stoudemire have success without setting the best screens), but when he is rolling to the rim he does just about everything right. He makes himself available and once he makes the catch, he is going right up with it and has the ability to finish over the help defender (something we also saw during the u19 tournament).

Speaking of Valanciunas’ ability to find lanes and make himself available, that is what makes him so successful “cutting” off of the basketball. According to Synergy Sports, Valanciunas posts a PPP of 1.488 (top 10%) while shooting 69.8% on cut plays:

One of the reasons why Valanciunas is so good on cuts is because he understands spacing. On this particular clip, you see Valanciunas’ teammate driving right at him. Instead of holding his ground, Valanciunas slips back to the opposite block, as as his defender helps on penetration, he now has given his teammate a passing lane and put himself in a position to catch and score at the same time.

It’s these types fundamentals and Valanciunas’ understanding of them that helps him score off of offensive rebounds and have success on put backs as well. Valanciunas was in the top 25% of all international players in terms of PPP on offensive rebounds, posting a PPP of 1.301 on 64.7% shooting:

What is so impressive about Valanciunas when working the offensive boards is his ability to keep the basketball up. Whenever Valanciunas grabs an offensive rebound and he has a chance to score on a putback, he keeps the ball high and goes right back up with it, limiting the chance opponents have to block it. This is something that guys in the NBA struggle with at times, so to see a 19 year old do it just about every single time, that is impressive.

Help/PNR Defense

Jonas Valanciunas had 68 blocks in 44 games with Lietuvos Rytas last season, and most of those came from the weakside or when Valanciunas was playing help defense:

Valanciunas just has a good understanding of when to come help and when to stay home, and when he does help, he isn’t committing 100% which allows him to recover back to his man if the pass is made instead of the shot. Another important thing is that you don’t see Valanciunas swinging widely at the basketball, picking up fouls from the weakside. In 44 games, Valanciunas was whistled for just 107 fouls, or about 2.4 fouls per game. He won’t pick up those cheap fouls because he is arriving with the help late.

Weaknesses

Post Offense

As good as Valanciunas is off of the basketball, that is almost as bad he is with the ball in his hands. On the block, Valancinuas posted just a PPP of 0.826, scoring 57 points on his 69 post up possessions. One of the biggest reasons why Valanciunas struggles so much is turnovers, as he turns the ball over 29% when posting up:

Something that Valanciunas needs to work on next year is his body. He needs to fill out a little bit more and that would help him both when fighting for position and when trying to back down his defender. One of the things that I noticed is that Valanciunas can’t really back his man down after making the catch, and this causes Valanciunas to swing an arm out and get offensive fouls called on him. In addition, Valanciunas really struggles when passing out of double teams. He is there using all of his energy to back his defender down and a when they send a double at him, it catches him off guard.

Post Defense

Valanciunas’ lack of size also hurts him on the ball defensively. On the 81 post up possessions that Valanciunas faced last year, he gave up 84 points, which puts him in the bottom 20% among all international players:

Again, in my opinion, it’s all about strength and position. At this point in his career, Valanciunas doesn’t have the strength to push his man off of his spots, and if they do catch it off of the block, they can simply back him down into the paint. No matter how good of a defender or how long you are, if you allow your man to get into your body and all the way into the paint, they are going to have an easy time and not be bothered by size. Again, there isn’t really anything strategically that you can do or change, it’s simply all about getting stronger.

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In my opinion, Jonas Valanciunas is a perfect fit for the Toronto Raptors and they should be very happy that he fell to him at #5. Especially considering the new coach, Dwane Casey, has experience working with a player who has Valanciunas’ skills. Tyson Chandler compares pretty favorably with Valanciunas in my opinion, and considering that Casey used Chandler to anchor a championship winning defense, that’s a good thing.

The one concern that I do have with Valanciunas is his body. However, he’s only 19 so he should continue to develop and playing another season against grown men in the Euroleague (His team is in the qualifying rounds of the Euroleague) will help in that department as well. He should make an immediate impact when he comes over in another year.