Sean's Sports Spot

5 Steps to fix the Celtics

2014-05-21T16:14:00.001-04:00

The silver lining to a season of misery for Celtics fans was supposed to be the promise of a high lottery pick that would help them obtain the next franchise building block. This is why we put up with the sickening feeling of rooting against our own team en route to a 57 loss season. We hung in there as the losses piled up because of one reason - hope.

Those hopes may have been crushed last night when luck avoided shining on the Celtics once again at the NBA Draft Lottery. Boston entered with the 5th best odds, with a 10.3% chance at winning the top pick and a 33.4% chance at a top three pick. No such luck.

Instead, it was the Cleveland Cavaliers that were the lucky ones. Now that might be an understatement. Despite having only a minuscule 1.7% chance, Cleveland won the lottery for the second straight year and third time in the last four years. They now have had a total of five picks that were in the top-4 of the draft over the past four years. If it's possible to master playing the lottery, the Cavs may have found it.

With Cleveland leapfrogging over them, Boston will have to settle for the 6th pick in the draft. In a draft like this that is supposed to be deep with talent, picking 6th isn't necessarily a terrible thing. They will still have the chance to select a good player that projects to be a solid starter with upside for more. It just probably won't be a franchise player to build around, like they were hoping to get if they managed to snag one of those top three picks. Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid aren't likely to slide to where they will be picking.

Yet hope is not lost. There are several options the Celtics could pursue and now that they know where they stand in the draft order, it will make it easier to plan how to attack the off-season.

One way to go about it is to be content with the 6th pick and select the best available player left on the board. Perhaps they'll get lucky and one of the top four players will slide a couple spots to them, but I wouldn't count on it. However, there will still be talent available. The team is reportedly interested in Aaron Gordon, a Power Forward out of Arizona that has drawn comparisons to Blake Griffin. He needs a lot of work on the offensive end, but he's extremely athletic with a high motor that should help him contribute on the defensive end right away. Julius Randle is a potential double-double machine that helped lead Kentucky to the NCAA Finals. There is also Noah Vonleh, who's stock has been on the rise lately, thanks in part to an impressive combine visit. If Boston does stay in the 6th spot, expect them to select from one of those options.

There's also the slight chance that Boston could dig into their treasure trove of assets to package other picks in an attempt to move up in the draft, but it's unlikely any of the teams in the top three would be willing to trade back.

If the Celtics stick with their current draft position, they should also have cap space available to make a splash in free agency. No, they won't have the room to make a run at top options like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony, but there are some appealing mid-tier options that could be on the market.

The other option would be straight from the playbook Danny Ainge used in 2007, when Boston traded the 5th overall pick to Seattle for Ray Allen, which then enabled them to trade for Kevin Garnett. With two key moves, the Celtics were able to quickly accelerate their rebuilding effort and transform into a championship team. So how can Boston pull that off now?

Here are 5 steps the Celtics should take to turn the state of the franchise around quickly.

Step 1 - Trade for Kevin Love

The All-Star forward has already made it clear he has no intention of signing an extension with Minnesota. If he's not traded this year then he intends to test free agency next summer, which means it's in the Timberwolves best interests to explore trade options rather than lose their star player for nothing.

In order to win a title in the NBA, it's essential to have one of the top dozen players in the league on your team. Love is one of those players. He was third in the league in PER last season (26.97), third in rebounds per game (12.5) and fourth in scoring (26.1). He is the type of go to scorer this Celtics team is currently lacking and his ability as a big man that can stretch the floor or dive to the basket on pick-and-rolls with Rajon Rondo would be a boon for this offense.

Would the number 6 pick entice Minnesota enough to pry Love away? Since none of the teams picking ahead of Boston are likely destinations for Love, it may be the best they can do if they are looking for a high lottery pick, but other assets will still need to be included. Jared Sullinger seems to be the most likely of Boston's young talent to be included. He plays the same position as Love, which makes him expendable. Brandon Bass and his expiring contract could also be thrown in to help save Boston some money without adding long term salary for Minnesota. Boston still has a large collection of future picks to spruce up the deal if needed to compete with offers from other teams, but it's not likely other teams will be able to offer much more than this.

Boston currently has about $46.5 million committed to salaries this season. Let's pretend they can somehow hypnotize Joel Anthony into declining his $3.8 million player option, dropping their cap figure to $42.7 million. Adding Love ($15.7 million), while subtracting Sullinger ($1.4 million) and Bass ($6.9 million) would put Boston at around $50 million for 8 players. With the salary cap expected to rise to $63.2 million next season, the Celtics still have some room to work with.

Step 2 - Trade for Omer Asik

Houston shopped Asik around prior to last season's trade deadline, but were unable to find anyone willing to meet their demands. That doesn't change the fact that they'd be willing to trade him, as it's clear that playing him alongside Dwight Howard is not something they can do for extended minutes on a regular basis. With only one year left on his contract, the price may not be as high now.

The Rockets signed Asik to a "poison pill" contract two years ago to help steal the restricted free agent away from Chicago. This means that he was paid $5 million in the first two years of the deal and $15 million in year 3 (next season). Don't let that scare you. For salary cap and luxury tax purposes, Asik's contract is only counting $8.3 million. Had Chicago matched Houston's offer, the deal would have counted at it's actual value, which would have put the Bulls over the luxury tax in year 3. Houston (or any team trading for Asik) won't be subjected to that massive cap hit and instead will only have the average annual amount effecting their cap and tax levels.

Asik is one of the better defensive centers in the league. The Celtics are desperately in need of a rim protector, especially if they were adding Love to the mix. While Love is an elite rebounder, he's not known for his defense or shot blocking ability. He'd pair nicely with Asik in the front court. Asik is more limited offensively, but that's a load Love can carry while stretching the floor to allow Asik to do the dirty work in the paint. Love is an elite rebounder, but Asik may be even better. He hasn't played the kind of minutes needed to rank near the top of the league in rebounding, but his rebound rate (21.7) was second best in the league.

Given the Rockets willingness to trade him and the fact he only has one year left on his deal, Asik should be attainable for a modest price. Olynyk showed some potential in his rookie season, so perhaps Houston can be convinced that his shooting ability would make him a great fit next to Howard. Throw in one of their collection of future draft picks (either their own next year, 2015 Clippers pick or 2016 Nets pick) and that should be enough to get a deal done.

Asik's cap hit ($8.6 million) minus Olynyk's deal ($2.1 million) would bring the team's salary to around $56.5 million.

Step 3 - Draft a wing scorer with the 17th pick

Boston owns Brooklyn's first-round pick this year, which is slotted for the 17th selection. As long as it's not used as an asset in another deal, the Celtics could use a wing scorer to bring off the bench. P.J. Harrison could be a fit and has been mentioned as an option in several mock drafts. He can shoot from deep and should be able to step in and contribute off the bench in a scoring role for a team that lacks three-point shooting. He may struggle on defense, but the C's will still have Avery Bradley as their lock down defender at the two spot. Coach Brad Stevens can play the two interchangeably, depending on match up and game situation.

Rodney Hood, James Young, T.J. Warren and Cleanthony Early are also wing options that can score that could be options to look at in this spot.

The 17th pick earns $1.3 million in the first year of their contract, bringing our team total to about $57.8 million.

Step 4 - Re-sign Avery Bradley and other cheap options

Bradley will be a restricted free agent this summer, with Boston extending a $3.5 million qualifying offer. Given his reputation as one of the league's best two-guard defenders, other teams may give consideration to extending an offer sheet. As long as the price doesn't go too high then Boston will likely match, but that would also effect their salary cap hit, leaving them with less room to work with. For arguments sake, let's say Bradley ends up making around $5 million in the first year of his next deal.

Boston will have decisions to make on young talent like Vitor Faverani, Phil Pressey and Jerrod Bayless. None of them are all that expensive, but re-signing all of them would likely take them over the cap. Since the team owns Bird Rights on each of them, this should not be a problem, but it limits what they can do after that.

If all four of these players are back at modest raises, plus team options for Chris Johnson and Chris Babb ($915K), the team now has 12 players and would be capped out.

Step 5 - Trade Gerald Wallace to free up more cap room!

Just kidding, nobody is taking on the 2 years and over $20 million left on that albatross of a contract. The only way they unload his contract is by paying another team with a collection of future draft picks to take this bad contract off their hands. Hey, it worked for Golden State last year, allowing them the cap space to sign Andre Iguodala.

In a perfect world, they'd find a way to dump Wallace's contract and make a run at a restricted free agent like Gordon Hayward. Could the Celtics steal him away from Utah with a poison pill deal? Given Utah's aversion to the luxury tax, it's not all that far fetched, but can't happen unless Boston can rid themselves of Wallace's toxic contract. Good luck with that.

Ok, so if that isn't a reasonable option, what is our final step?

Step 5 - Bring back The Truth!

Celtics fans found it difficult to say good-bye when Paul Pierce was traded, along with Kevin Garnett, to the Nets last off-season. Could a reunion be on the horizon? Pierce still bleeds green and would love to finish his career in Boston. The problem is, late in his career he also wants to play for a contender. As the team currently stands in rebuilding mode, Boston would not be the place for Pierce at this stage of his career, but if the above moves were to be made to put the Celtics in position to contend, Pierce would be more open to a return on a team friendly deal. At this point, Boston would be up against the cap, but would still have their full mid-level exception to use.

Pierce is slowing down in his old age, but proved in the postseason that he's still capable of stepping up in big moments. As long as he's not being counted on to lead the team in scoring, he'd be a fine addition to this roster. He also brings some much needed veteran leadership. Love would be the best player and Rondo is now the captain, but neither of them are proven leaders. The old captain would be a strong voice in the locker room to help guide a young team.

So here's what the roster would look like after these moves.

Starters
PG - Rajon Rondo
SG - Avery Bradley
SF - Jeff Green
PF - Kevin Love
C - Omer Asik

Bench
Paul Pierce
Gerald Wallace
Jerryd Bayless
Vitor Favorani
Phil Pressey
Chris Johnson
Chris Babb
Rookie first round-pick
Rookie second-round pick

Is that a championship caliber roster? Probably not, but in a weak Eastern Conference, this team is nearly a lock as a playoff team that could make some noise in the postseason. Rondo, Love and Asik form a solid core that the team could add to in the future, so if they can lock up all of them long term then they'll have a foundation to build on. Danny Ainge says he wants to set off some fireworks this summer. These steps would certainly qualify. Now let's watch him set them off and enjoy the view.

NBA Playoffs are off to a historic start

2014-05-05T16:10:00.000-04:00

It's only been one round, but already these NBA playoffs are off to a historic start. Hard to believe? Well, for starters, let's just point to the fact that on Saturday we witnessed three Game 7's on the same day for the first time in league history. That alone is impressive, but we're just getting started.

No postseason in league history has ever had more than five Game 7's. This year we've already seen five - and that was just in the first round! There's a good chance we'll see more along the way.

The first round featured eight games that went to overtime, setting a new record for OT games in a single round. The record for OT games in an entire postseason is 10, which is another record likely to be broken in the near future. The epic series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies featured four straight games that went to overtime, which had never happened before. If not for a suspension that kept forward Zach Randolph out of Game 7 for throwing a punch in the previous game, perhaps the Grizzlies could have pushed for a 5th OT in the series. Who knows, maybe they would have won.

Except it was the Thunder who won that game thanks to an outstanding performance from Russell Westbrook. With 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 16 assists, Westbrook became only the second player in league history to record a triple-double in Game 7 of a playoff game twice in his career. He also did it back in 2011 (Rajon Rondo did it twice in 2012). Only four other players have ever recorded one triple-double in a Game 7 and it's worth noting that all of them are Hall of Famers (West, Bird, Worthy, Pippen). It remains to be seen if Westbrook (or Rondo, for that matter) is bound for the Hall one day, but this is certainly an exclusive list to belong to.

This postseason has had it's share of dramatic endings and thrilling buzzer beaters, starting with Kevin Durant's ridiculous 4-point play. The soon-to-be-crowned MVP drained an off-balance shot, while falling out of bounds, and drew the foul to tie the game and send it to overtime.

Manu Ginobili hit a jumper to put his Spurs ahead with 1.7 seconds left at the end of Game 3, only to watch Vince Carter counter with a game winner at the buzzer. Carter caught the inbound pass in the left corner, spun around, gave a quick pump fake and drained a shot right over the head of Ginobili. The Spurs would have a chance to get revenge in a Game 6 that could have clinched them the series. After Patty Mills hit a three-pointer to bring the Spurs back within two with seven seconds left, Monta Ellis inexplicably threw the ball away rather than allow the Spurs to foul him and take the free throws that would have almost certainly put the game out of reach. With only about a second left, the Spurs inbounded the ball from under their own basket, but the ball was knocked out of bounds by Dallas near mid-court. That gave the Spurs one final chance to inbound and get a shot off with 0.4 seconds left, but Mills wasn't able to get the shot off in time. Replays would later show the Spurs had too many men on the court for the first of those inbound passes, but it didn't turn out to matter.

Then there's Damian Lillard. The All-Star point guard's buzzer beater in Game 6 sunk the Rockets, giving the Portland Trailblazers the series victory. It was the first series clinching buzzer beater since John Stockton in 1997. Prior to that, it had only been done by Michael Jordan (twice - '89, '93) and Ralph Sampson ('86). Kyle Lowry nearly joined Lillard on that list, but the Raptors guard had his floater at the buzzer blocked by Paul Pierce, clinching the series for Brooklyn. I'm not sure if anyone keeps track of series clinching blocks, but that list has to be nearly as exclusive.

The Clippers had every reason to let the media storm surrounding the racist comments made by owner Donald Sterling distract them and it appeared to be taking it's toll on the team when they lost in a blowout on the road to the Golden State Warriors. Yet two days later, on the night that commissioner Adam Silver announced a lifetime ban for Sterling, the Clippers bounced back behind a heroic effort from DeAndre Jordan (25 points, 18 rebounds). The Clippers would go on to win the series in seven games and will move on to the next round - but their disgraced owner won't be coming with them.

Silver's decision to ban Sterling made a strong statement across the league that racism and bigotry will not be tolerated at any level - not even from one of it's billionaire owners. The other owners around the league followed his lead, unanimously voting in favor of forcing Sterling to sell the team. Even with the support of all the other owners, forcing Sterling to sell could prove problematic due to the lawsuits Sterling is sure to bring against the league, but it's a positive step in the right direction to rid the league of men like Sterling that have no place in this league - or in society in general. For now, the league is expected to appoint a new CEO to run the team, but the league is expected to facilitate a sale eventually. Numerous suitors are rumored to be lining up to bid on the team, which could sell for over $1 billion (too bad that money has to go to Sterling instead of being distributed between several charities). Among those rumored buyers is Magic Johnson, which would be ironic given that the released audio tapes include the voice of Sterling scolding his former girlfriend/assistant, V. Stiviano, for posting a photo of her and Johnson together on Instagram. Hey Sterling, now who's the one that's not allowed at Clippers games?! It would be sweet poetic justice if Magic were to end up as the team's new owner. Also rumored to be in the mix is Oprah Winfrey. Let's just hope she wouldn't be too involved in basketball decision. I can only imagine how free agency would go. You get a new contract! YOU get a new contract! YOU GET A NEW CONTRACT!!

The Sterling saga threatened to hijack the postseason, but credit Silver for his swift decision to invoke the maximum penalty. With Sterling out of the way, it allowed the league to get back to enjoying what has been a very entertaining postseason. We've already witnessed history being made and it's only been one round. I'm not sure what's in store for the rest of the postseason, but I'm excited to find out!

Pujols joins the 500 Club

2014-04-23T13:31:00.001-04:00

Some players are prone to struggle when they have a career milestone in their sights. Whether the pressure starts to get to them or they just end up over thinking things, a prolonged drought as the world anxiously awaits the breakthrough moment that makes history isn't unusual. Albert Pujols is not one of those players. On the verge of one of baseball's most cherished milestones, the Angels slugger went deep in three of his past five games, including a pair of homers last night, to become the 26th member of the 500 Home Run Club.

Rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Concerns of Pujols' decline began to grow from the moment he signed an outrageous 10-year, $240 million deal with the Angels. In his first two seasons in LA, Pujols battled injuries and saw his production sharply decline. This year he's been healthy so far (knock on wood) and appears poised to remind us how great a hitter he is.

How great has Pujols been in his career? He's the third youngest player to reach the 500 HR mark (34 years, 96 days) and only seven players joined the club in less at-bats than the 7,390 that it took Pujols. He's also on the verge of joining even more exclusive territory. Of the members of the 500 HR Club, only three of them (Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx) hit over .300/.400/.600 for their careers. Pujols currently sits at .321/.409/.599, barely missing the cut. Granted we're only 20 games into this season, but he's slugging .619 so far, so if he keeps it up at anything close to that rate he'll join that group by season's end. Of course some inevitable decline at the tail end of his career could drag him back down under those thresholds. Hey, there's a reason only three guys have ever done it! But the fact that we're talking about it as a possibility is pretty amazing.

Pujols is a three-time MVP that finished in the top five in voting for the award in each of his first 11 seasons, all in St. Louis. He's compiled a 94.1 WAR over his career (per Baseball-Reference), which is second among active players and 26th all time for position players. That's an average of 7.1 WAR per year through his first 13 seasons, despite a career worst year (1.9 WAR) last season dragging him down. His .599 slugging % is the 7th best ever and he's 8th in career OPS (1.008). So yeah, he's pretty good.

As MLB attempts to move away from the steroid era, we may start seeing less players join the 500 Club. At least a handful of it's current members are either proven steroid users or at least widely suspected of it. Pujols is not one of them, which makes achieving this accomplishment as one of the clean players in this era even more impressive. There aren't many active hitters that are closing in on that mark that have a realistic shot at it. Adam Dunn is the closest with 444, but if he continues to have his batting average flirt with the Mendoza Line, you have to wonder if he'll have a permanent spot in the lineup long enough to get there. David Ortiz (435) is still going strong and is signed through at least next season (with two additional club option years after), but at age 38 you have to wonder when his production will drop off. Jason Giambi (438 - can you believe he's still playing??) and Paul Konerko (434) are part time players that likely don't have enough at-bats left in the tank to get there. Alfonso Soriano (410) is the only other active player that has over 400 career HRs and he's 38 years old. Perhaps some of the game's bright young power-hitting stars, such as Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper, could get there someday, but right now they aren't even close enough to consider.

There was a time not long ago when many hoped Pujols could be the one to dethrone Barry Bonds as the Home Run King and bring some legitimacy back to the record. That now appears to be a long shot, as he'd need to average over 32 HRs per season over the remaining 8 years of his contract (counting this one). He's well on his way to reaching that total this season and could have a couple more like it, but it's not reasonable to expect he'll average that many for that long. But he could get to 600, which is a level only eight players have ever reached. He'd need to average only about 12.5 HRs per year the rest of his career to do that, so that's well within reason. What about 700? Can he average close to 25 per year the rest of the way? He'd need at least a couple more big seasons to make up for the inevitable decline years at the end of his career where he's unlikely to come close to that, but it's not out of the question that he could do what only three other players have done.

There are many great players in the game of baseball, but there is only one Albert Pujols. He's already accomplished a lot in his legendary career, but he's not done yet. Sure, his contract will become an albatross at some point over it's remaining 7+ years, but he's showing early on this season that he's still got something left in the tank. Don't count him out yet. Pujols is still a force to be reckoned with.

NBA MVP Race

2014-04-17T15:44:00.001-04:00

Another NBA season is in the books, but before we look ahead to the playoffs and crown a new champion, let's look back on this regular season to determine the league's Most Valuable Player.

The term "most valuable" is open to interpretation, as there are a lot of factors involved. Essentially how I look at it is a combination of who had the best statistical seasons combined with how much they helped their team win. So while guys that stuff the stat sheet for lottery bound teams may be great in your fantasy league, they don't belong on this list.

MVP

1. Kevin Durant
2. LeBron James
3. Blake Griffin
4. Stephen Curry
5. Joakim Noah

This was essentially a two man race between Durant and James, with everyone else relegated to a lower tier of contenders. While it's hard to argue that LeBron isn't the league's best all around player, Durant surpassed him by having a better season.

The advanced metrics favor Durant, who lead the league by a slim margin over James in PER (29.9), Value Added (903.8) and Estimated Wins Added (30.1). He's also the league's most prolific scorer, with a league leading 32.0 points per game. Through one scorching stretch this season, Durant scored 25+ points in 41 straight games - a streak that was only snapped when he was rested the entire fourth quarter of a blowout win. He finished the game with 23 points, which is a fitting number considering who he surpassed with this streak. With sidekick Russell Westbrook banged up throughout the season, Durant was forced to take on an even greater responsibility in carrying the Thunder's offense. Not only was he up to the challenge, but he did so without sacrificing efficiency. Durant put together another near 50-40-90 season, with shooting percentages of .503 from the field, .391 from beyond the arc and .873 from the charity stripe.

Not that LeBron is any slouch in the scoring department. He was still third in the league in scoring (27.1), but more incredibly was also fourth in FG% (.567). That's far better than any non-center and nobody near the top of that list came close to the number of shots LeBron took. Compared to Durant, he is also a better passer and slightly better rebounder. Wait, didn't Durant average more rebounds per game this season? Yes, he did, but LeBron had a better rebound rate (11.5), which measures the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds. Yet Durant managed to close the gap in those areas, while remaining ahead of him as a scorer. The biggest difference between the two used to be on the defensive end, but LeBron slipped a bit this year. Many often wondered aloud this season if LeBron seemed to be coasting at times, particularly on defense. After three straight Finals appearances, can you blame the guy for conserving some energy for another playoff run? Perhaps not, but Durant's consistency helps nudge him ahead in the MVP race.

Chris Paul is still the Clippers best player, but he also missed 20 games this season due to injury, which takes him out of the race. In his absence, Blake Griffin made the leap into the conversation of the league's best players by leading the Clippers to a 12-6 record during an 18 game stretch that CP3 was sidelined. Griffin had a career best PER (23.98) and scored a career high 24.1 points per game. A key part of this improvement came in his shooting. While he remains a poor three-point shooter, his mid-range game has improved. While he was once a liability at the free-throw line, he shot a respectable .715 from the line this year. Lob City was fun, but Griffin is now much more than just a guy that can throw down awesome dunks.

Curry may be the league's best shooter and perhaps the most vital to his team's offense. The Warriors had an offensive efficiency of 109.7 when Curry was on the court (per NBA.com), which is a rate that would have led the league. With Curry on the bench, that efficiency dropped to a miserable 93.2, which would easily be the worst in the league. If we're talking "most valuable", that essentially sums up what makes Curry the most valuable offensive player in the league. Of course, there are two sides to the game of basketball and Curry is a minus on the defensive end. Luckily for the Warriors, Curry's defensive deficiencies are easy to hide when you have Andrew Bogut patrolling the paint and a lock-down wing defender like Andre Iguodala guarding the perimeter.

The Bulls got off to a rough start this season with the loss of Derrick Rose (again), but they managed to rally around Noah to climb to the 4th seed in the East. His team feeds off his energy and the non-stop motor that has helped him become a strong contender for Defensive Player of the Year (especially with Indiana's late collapse weakening Roy Hibbert's case). Chicago's defensive efficiency with Noah on the court is 95.2 and 103.4 when he sits. However, it's not just his defense that helped turn the Bulls season around. The team's identity changed when they started to run their offense through him. How many teams can say their center is their best play-maker? In addition to setting career highs in points (12.6) and rebounds (11.3), Noah's career high 5.4 assists is most telling. He tied for second in the league in triple-doubles with 4, showcasing his versatility. After his close friend Luol Deng was traded mid-season, the Bulls were deprived of one of the few players on their roster capable of initiating the offense. The burden fell on Noah and he responded with the best season of his career. Noah was furious when Deng got traded because it felt like the team was giving up on it's season, so he used that to fuel him on his incredible second half tear. In reality, Chicago traded Deng for Andrew Bynum's non-guaranteed contract to save money and duck under the luxury tax line. The best part is that Noah's leap to the elite should earn him a spot on the All-NBA first team that would trigger a bonus payment in his contract that would put the Bulls over the tax anyway.

Best of the rest

The Near misses

Dirk Nowitzki remains one of the league's elite players, despite that he should be slowing down at age 35. He deserves a lot of credit for carrying a fairly limited supporting cast to the last playoff spot in a highly competitive Western Conference.

James Harden had another strong season, raking 5th in the league in scoring (25.4), despite having to deal with adjusting the offense to incorporate Dwight Howard. At times he can be a lazy defender, but having Howard behind him helps Houston cover for that.

LaMarcus Aldridge and the Blazers got off to a hot start, but tailed off a bit in the second half. Portland looked like a contender while winning 17 of their first 20 games, but eventually settled for the 5th seed. Granted their 58 wins would have tied Miami for 2nd in the East, but their slide keeps LA just outside the list.

Paul George was in the mix for a while, but the Pacers stumbled down the stretch and George's shooting slump was a big part of the reason why. Indiana is still a strong defensive team, but they struggle on offense when George doesn't have it going.

Missed too much time

Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Al Horford, Brook Lopez. Thanks for playing, you just didn't play enough.

Studs on dud teams

Kevin Love continues to put up huge numbers, but eventually we have to start wondering why he's never played on a team with a winning record. Former GM David Khan deserves much of the blame for the team's struggles, but he's long gone now. This was supposed to be the year he finally made the playoffs, but they didn't come close.

Carmelo Anthony was second in the league in scoring, but also led perhaps the league's most disappointing team. The stench of the Knicks failure to even make the playoffs in a weak Conference drags him down.

Anthony Davis is one of the league's brightest young stars, but the Pelicans were derailed by so many injuries that they never had a shot at the postseason. Give him another year and he could be in the conversation.

Least Valuable Player

This one goes out to Larry Sanders, who signed a big new contract before the season and immediately made the Bucks regret it. It started with his involvement in a bar fight that delayed the start of his season and ended with an eye injury that ended his season after only 23 games. In between he saw troubling declines in his points, rebounds and blocks, while also managing to get himself suspended for smoking pot. The Bucks might as well have lit $44 million on fire rather than clog their future cap space with a new contract for Sanders. Believe it or not, Milwaukee entered the season planning on competing for a postseason spot, but thanks to the derailment of Sanders' career, they instead ended up with the league's worst record. He was so bad, the Sixers probably considered trading for him! On the bright side, getting such little value out of Sanders this season may help them land a future star in the lottery that can help turn the franchise around. That has to have some value in it.

A tale of two contracts

2014-03-31T15:59:00.001-04:00

The two best players in baseball were recently rewarded with historic new contracts. One of them appears to be a brilliant decision to lock up a once in a generation talent, while the other is destined to be a disaster. These predictions are not based on where each of these MVP caliber performers are at this stage of their careers, but rather the direction they are trending in.

Miguel Cabrera has won the AL MVP award in each of the past two seasons. In 2012 he also completed the rare accomplishment of capturing the Triple Crown. There is no denying that he is the best hitter in baseball, which made him a relative bargain at the $44 million total he was owed over the final two years of his contract. The eight year extension the Detroit Tigers recently gave him is another story.

When including the final two years of his previous deal, the extension makes his contract worth $292 million over 10 years, which eclipses the 10-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez was given by the Yankees in 2008 for the largest deal in league history. Cabrera will earn an average of $31 million per season over the course of the deal, beating Clayton Kershaw's $30.7 million for the highest annual average.

Cabrera was worth 7.5 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball-Reference.com) last season. A win is worth approximately $6 million on the open market. Forbes estimates that it is actually $5.9 million per win, but even at a more conservative estimate closer to $5 million, Cabrera is still worth the $31 million per year as long as he continue to put up 7.0+ WAR seasons, as he has done in each of the past three years.

The problem is that we can't expect Cabrera to produce at this level for the next 10 years. He'll turn 31 later this month, which means this extension will last through his age 41 season! Hitters generally tend to decline by their mid-30's, which means by the time the extension kicks in two years from now, his skills may already be starting to erode. Also consider that essentially all of his value comes with a bat in his hands. He adds no additional value as a base runner and actually has negative value defensively. Baseball-Reference has rated him below replacement level defensively with a negative dWAR in every season of his career. The move back to first base this season will help, but it's fair to say there are no Gold Gloves in his future. He's ideally suited to be a DH and will inevitably shift to that position as he continues to age. In fact, it would come as no surprise if we see Cabrera spend more time at DH as early as next season, after Victor Martinez's contract comes off Detroit's books. The game's highest paid DH is Boston's David Ortiz, who just agreed to an extension that will pay him $16 million next season. Ortiz is coming off a 4.9 WAR season, which is a far cry from the level Cabrera is at, but the gap isn't nearly wide enough to justify paying Cabrera nearly twice as much. Ortiz's value is limited due to the fact that he rarely fields a position, which explains why he's never had a 7.0+ WAR season, despite finishing among the top-5 in MVP finalists five times. Voters have actually used the argument that he's "only" a DH against him, yet somehow Cabrera's poor defense isn't held against him by those same voters.

The most baffling thing about this extension is the timing. Why now? Cabrera wasn't eligible for free agency for another two seasons and it's unlikely his value could have gone any higher than it is now coming off back-to-back MVP campaigns. Did they learn nothing from Philadelphia's disastrous extension with Ryan Howard? The Phillies slugger is another former MVP winner who was granted a pricey extension two years before his existing contract ran out. The deal looked bad at the time, but would become the laughingstock of the league before the extension years actually kicked in, as the injury plagued first baseman has seen his value decline to barely above replacement level. While Cabrera's decline shouldn't be expected to come quite as swiftly, that decline is inevitable.

The only case for making this type of deal with Cabrera now is because the Tigers were intent on rewarding him with the richest contract in history. Waiting two years would have given them the chance to re-evaluate his value, but also would have prevented them from offering him a contract that would have surpassed the A-Rod deal.

None of this is to take anything away from what Cabrera has accomplished, as he is truly an amazing talent and should continue to be for the next several years. However, he will no longer be at this same level for the majority of this contract. While the Tigers could potentially be getting a slight bargain based on the level he's at now, there is almost zero chance that he will provide enough value over the next 10 years to come close to living up to this contract.

On the other end of the spectrum is Mike Trout. The Angels star center fielder recently signed a new 6-year, $144.5 million deal. He is already set to earn $1 million this season in his first year of arbitration eligibility, with the extension starting next year, ensuring Trout remains in LA through 2020. He will be paid base salaries of $5.25 million next year, $15.25 million in 2016, $19.25 million in 2017 and $33.25 million in the remaining three seasons. It also includes a $5 million signing bonus. Given that Trout is only in his third season and not eligible for free agency until after 2017, he had a lot less leverage than Cabrera. However, this is still an enormous deal. Trout is the first player with less than three years of service time to sign a deal worth more than $20 million annually. That makes this contract as historic as the one Cabrera just signed, but the difference is that Trout is worth it.

The biggest factor in Trout's favor is his age. He's only 22 years old, which means he'll still be in his 20's when this contract is up. The Angels are paying a premium price, but they are paying for Trout's best years, not overpaying for past production. In fact, once this contract is up, Trout could sign the same 10-year deal Cabrera just got and it would still be a better value than it is for Cabrera right now.

The other factor in Trout's favor is that he's already the superior player. I've made the case before that Trout should have won the MVP the last two seasons because he's the better all around player (he finished second, behind Cabrera, both years). In 2012 Trout posted a league best 10.8 WAR, putting him miles ahead of Cabrera, who won the award primarily based on his overvalued Triple Crown numbers. Trout is an elite base runner and defensive player at a premium position, which are areas of the game that Cabrera contributes little in. Trout's value took a dip last season to 8.9 WAR, due mostly to a decline in defensive metrics. That was likely attributed to switching from left field to center, as well as not benefiting from the handful of Home Run robbing catches that boosted his value the previous year. He's still considered a very good outfielder and his value was still easily above Cabrera's.

Plus, Trout will conceivably get better. He hasn't even reached his prime yet, so we may have only seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of what he's capable of. Despite the drop in WAR, he still managed to make some improvements at the plate last season. His OPS went up and he hit more extra base hits. He also walked more and struck out less. Angels fans must be drooling over the improvements we're likely to see this season and in years to come.

Unlike the Cabrera deal, Trout's contract appears to be fair for both sides. For Trout, the extension provides long term security that sets him up for life financially and protects him in the event of a catastrophic injury that could limit his future earning potential. The pressures on him now should be about winning rather than about his next contract. While this is an unprecedented deal for a young player with such limited experience, Trout is also an unprecedented talent. Locking Trout into an extension now not only sets a level of cost certainty for the Angels, but also avoids the hassle of dealing with what could have been some very tricky arbitration hearings over the next three years. Arbitration salaries are generally negotiated based on the recent salaries given to similar players with the same amount of service time. The problem is, there are no players similar to Trout, which would likely result in record rates through his remaining arbitration years. After that, Trout would have been in position to bolt to the highest bidder, so this extension buys out three years of free agency. While the Angels may be paying Trout a bit more over the next few years than they might have under normal arbitration procedures, he's still a huge bargain based on the value he provides. In the last three years of the extension, the Angels will pay Trout about what the market would likely value him at, but locking him up now protects them against further inflation.

Trout and Cabrera are the best hitters in the game today, but they are trending in different directions. Cabrera has already reached his peak and will very likely decline as he ages, while the best has yet to come for Trout. That's what makes the Angels locking up Trout at a young age such a brilliant move, while the Tigers burdening themselves with what inevitably will become an albatross long before it's over will prove to be a monumental mistake. Trout has the upside to actually outperform his contract, while Cabrera has virtually no chance of ever living up to his.

Perhaps it would be more fitting if the two superstars switched contracts.

Red Sox Preview 2014

2014-03-27T17:45:00.001-04:00

It's tough to repeat in baseball. In fact, no team has won the World Series in consecutive years since the New York Yankees capped a three-peat in 2000. Prior to that, the Toronto Blue Jays won a pair of titles in 1992-93. Other than that - well you have to go back to before my lifetime to find when it has happened. The grind of a deep postseason run takes a toll on players that can carry over to the following season. You may have heard it mentioned as the Hangover Effect - and no, it has nothing to do with whatever certain Red Sox pitchers were doing in the clubhouse in 2011. Free agency has led to rising salaries that also makes it harder for most teams to keep their core group together.

With that in mind, you could start building a case why the defending champion Boston Red Sox may not enter the season as the favorites to win this season. Also factor in that they are part the brutal AL East that prevents them from even being a lock to win the division. The Rays are well stocked and the Yankees have re-stocked. Baltimore has the talent to hang around and the Blue Jays can't possibly be as disappointing as last season.

Yet that doesn't mean the Sox are in bad shape. Not by any means. They start the season in the mix of contenders by bringing back the majority of last year's core. So how does this team compare with the team that won the title last season?

Who's in center?

Well, it won't be Jacoby Ellsbury. The Sox former center fielder and lead-off hitter fled to the rival Yankees for a 7-year, $153 million deal that was far to rich for the Sox to match. Part of why they were willing to let their star outfielder go is because they were confident that they already had his replacement in Jackie Bradley, Jr.

However, an interesting story line has developed this spring. Boston took a low risk chance on a lottery ticket by signing Grady Sizemore to compete for a roster spot and so far it seems to be paying off. The former All-Star hasn't played since 2011 due to injuries and has managed to stay on the field for only a total of 210 games since 2009. So why bother with a player who appeared to be done years ago? Well, for one thing, in his last healthy season he mashed 33 home runs and swiped 38 bases. That capped a run of four straight seasons where he proved himself to be at least a solid 20/20 guy. Oh, and he's only 31 years old, which is only a year older than Ellsbury. Sizemore has impressed so far, hitting .303 and recently smashing his first home run in years. Most importantly, he's still healthy. Expect the Sox to stick him in center to open the season and ride that horse until it gives out. Which given recent history, may not be too long.

The good news is that Bradley, Jr. should be ready to step in if Sizemore falters or succumbs once again to the injury bug. After lighting the world on fire last spring, Bradley, Jr. flopped out of the gate once the games began to matter. After hitting a miserable .097 in 14 games, he was demoted back to Pawtucket. This spring, Bradley, Jr.'s struggles have continued, as he's batting only .173 so far. He does have four doubles, but also 16 strikeouts in only 52 at-bats. So perhaps he could use a bit more seasoning down on the farm anyway, but he's still the center fielder of the future for this team and profiles as an elite defensive player that gets on base and has a little pop. He won't replace Ellsbury's speed, but his other tools should add up to providing a similar level of value in the long run. Maybe not the same value as Ellsbury had at his peak - we can't ever expect JBJ to have a year like the MVP-caliber season Ellsbury had in 2011. Then again, we can't reasonably expect Ellsbury himself to have another season like that either.

The rest of the offense

Yeah, they are still pretty good. After all, they did lead the majors in runs scored last year and should be expected to be near the top of that list again. The loss of Ellsbury could hurt, but the offense could improve in other areas too.

Dustin Pedroia didn't have a bad season by any means (.301/.372/.415), but he was also playing through a painful thumb injury that sapped some of his power. Expect a return to double digit home runs with another 40+ doubles. David Ortiz still anchors the middle of the lineup and now that he's been rewarded with an extension that should keep him in Boston for the rest of his career, he's free of distractions about his contract and can instead focus on doing what he does best.

Jarod Saltalamacchia is gone, but A.J. Pierzynski should be a sufficient short term fill in until one of the franchises young prospects is ready to take over behind the plate. Pierzynski is the type of guy people hate when he's not on your team, but as long as he's on your side, he's known to be a good teammate.

Shane Victorino had a nice bounce back season at the plate last year. Even with some regression, he adds plenty of value with his speed on the base paths and his defensive ability. He plays right field better than anyone this team has seen in a while. The left field tandem of Daniel Nava and Johnny Gomes worked well last season and manager John Farrell will continue to switch between them as a platoon in order to put each of them in the best position to succeed.

What about the kids?

A full season of Xander Bogaerts at shortstop will help. The rookie wasn't at all phased by the big stage during Boston's World Series run last year, hitting .296/.412/.481 in 12 postseason games. Stephen Drew was solid in his time manning the position last year, but he doesn't have nearly the upside that Bogaerts has. This kid is going to be a stud.

Will Middelbrooks is poised for a breakout season. The young third baseman was demoted last June after struggling to a .192 start at the plate. Once he was called up again though he was a different player. Middlebrooks hit .276/.329/.476 with 8 home runs after the All-Star break last year. Those numbers won't blow you away, but they are light years ahead of where he was at early in the season. If he can build on that this season, it could give the bottom of the order a big lift.

Starting rotation

The rotation remains mostly the same, with Jon Lester set to lead the staff. He showed last October that he is still capable of being one of the game's most dominant lefty pitchers. He just needs to find a bit more consistency in order to put himself in the conversation with the AL's best pitchers. Clay Buchholz had the number last year to be in that conversation as well, when he posted a league best 1.74 ERA. Unfortunately, he did so in only about half a season, falling short of the innings total required to qualify for the ERA title. He probably won't double the 16 starts he made last year, but he has to at least come close.

Ryan Dempster may have done the team a favor by opting to sit out the season. Not only does it save the team from paying him the $13.25 million he was owed in the final year of his contract, but it also avoids putting the team in the uncomfortable position of paying that much to a pitcher on the decline that no longer appears to be one of the team's top five options for the rotation. That allows the Sox to fit in Felix Doubront to help fill out a rotation that also includes solid veterans John Lackey and Jake Peavy.

Boston also has impressive depth thanks to their minor league system. Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo and Ruby De La Rosa could all step in for spot starts when needed. Henry Owens, the team's top pitching prospect, will start the season in Double-A Portland, but don't rule out him making an impact late in the season.

Call to the bullpen

The Sox bullpen looked to be in trouble once closers Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey were both lost to season ending injuries. Yet they managed to strike gold once they inserted Koji Uehara at the back of the bullpen. Uehara got on a roll that was nothing short of spectacular, posting a 1.09 ERA and 0.57 WHIP, while holding opposing hitters to a .130 average. It's unreasonable to expect the 38 year old to repeat that kind of performance and injuries could be a concern coming off a career high 74.1 innings, but Uehara should still be considered one of the game's top closers.

Even with some decline from their closer, the bullpen should be stronger overall. During their postseason run, Farrell found it hard to trust anyone outside of Uehara, Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa and Brandon Workman. In addition to those options, Farrell should now have a healthy Andrew Miller back in the pen to give them a hard throwing lefty. The team also added Edward Mujica, who saved 37 games last year for the St. Louis Cardinals. Former journeyman starter Chris Capuano makes for an intriguing addition and has looked strong this spring.

Any of the young prospects in Boston's system that are ready to break through could make an impact in the bullpen if a rotation spot doesn't open up.

2014 outlook

While many fans in Red Sox Nation may have been disappointed to lose an All-Star caliber player like Ellsbury without making any splashy moves to counter his defection, the Red Sox may actually have a better team on paper than the title winning team last year. Improved health from their pitching staff and an infusion of young talent should help offset any off-season losses.

Winning back-to-back championships is tough to pull off. We don't know yet if this team will be able to buck the trend, but what we do know is that this team is set up to be one of the top contenders this season. History may be against them, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if the Sox make another run at a title. Put the duck boats on standby.

The NBA's Draft Wheel

2014-03-18T16:24:00.000-04:00

With what is expected to be the most loaded NBA draft in over a decade on the horizon, the issue of tanking has once again come to the forefront of discussion around the league. Critics will point out that intentionally losing games for the purpose of improving their odds of possibly landing the top pick in the draft is a disservice to the fans and a stain on the league. Others will argue that a high draft pick is the most feasible way for most teams to improve, while developing young talent has more long term value to a lottery team than giving more minutes to a veteran player that might help them win a few more games in the short term.

In the midst of a 21-game losing streak, the Philadelphia 76ers have become the poster child team for tanking this season. Their plan began to unfold before the season started, when they traded away All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday to New Orleans for a package that included rookie Nerlens Noel, who has yet to set foot on the court this season while recovering from ACL surgery, and a top-5 protected draft pick this year (which is shaping up to be a juicy pick unless the Pelicans have some major lottery luck). Then at the trade deadline last month they dealt away Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes. Sure, the second-round picks they netted in those trades could be useful assets in exchange for players that were likely to leave after this season anyway, but those deals were made primarily to strip the roster of veteran talent in order to maximize their chances for a high draft pick this summer.

In response to this perceived issue, people around the league are exploring changes that would prevent tanking. The lottery system was put in place to give teams less incentive to tank, but apparently that's not enough for some people. Since Adam Silver has taken over as the new Commissioner, he has been on the look out for innovative ways to improve the league - which includes ideas to revamp the draft system.

One of the ideas that has floated around recently is the draft "Wheel." The idea was proposed to Silver by Boston Celtics assistant GM Mike Zarren as an alternative the current lottery system. Under the Wheel system, each of the league's 30 teams would be slotted into a specified draft slot each year on a rotating basis, ensuring that every team in the league has the opportunity to select first in the draft once every 30 years. It is also designed to gives teams one top-six pick every five years and at least one top-twelve pick every four years.

Seems fair, right? Not so fast. While the idea is sound in theory for a league striving for parity, it's littered with flaws that could potentially make the draft worse than it is today. Here are my main concerns with this plan, in it's proposed form.

It could lead to the best teams ending up with the best draft picks. Not all the time of course, but if this system were currently in place, would anyone be thrilled if it were the Miami Heat's turn to pick first this year? Coming off of two straight titles (with a good chance to add another this season), is it really in the best interest of the league if the Heat could add an Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker to their loaded championship team?
The teams currently at the bottom of the lottery are the ones that need the most help. Many of them are in desperate need of a true franchise player to build around and the draft is typically the best place to find that type of player. Instead of bottoming out in hopes of a quick rebuild through the draft, teams may take years to rebuild, depending on when their turn to pick near the top of the draft comes up again. If they whiff on that high draft pick, they may not get another chance for a while. According to the Wheel, the year after picking first overall, that team drops to picking last and will have to wait four years before they pick inside the top 10 again. Sam Presti and the front office of the Oklahoma City Thunder are praised for the way they've constructed a contender with shrewd drafting and salary cap management, while playing in a small market. Their rebuilding effort began with drafting Kevin Durant with the 2nd overall pick in 2007 (back when they were the Seattle Supersonics), but it didn't end there. A young Durant struggled to carry the team at first, but a couple more trips to the lottery landed them Russell Westbrook (4th) and James Harden (3rd), which led to steady improvement. By 2012, the Thunder were playing in the NBA Finals. That path has become the model that most rebuilding teams strive to follow. While a lot of franchises fail to capitalize as well as the Thunder have, this path would be impossible under the Wheel system because bad teams couldn't string together high draft picks in consecutive years.
Not all draft classes are created equal. This year's class is expected to be loaded with potential All-Star talent, but the 2013 class looks like a barren wasteland by comparison. Last summer, the Cleveland Cavaliers selected Anthony Bennett with the top overall pick. Eight months later, Bennett looks like a bust. Rookies Michael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo are off to promising starts, but neither of them have the look of a future star. If your turn on the Wheel to pick high in the draft comes up in a year with a week draft class, that could be a staggering blow to the rebuilding efforts of teams devoid of a franchise player. This is still a concern under today's system as well, but if teams are aware that the incoming draft class is relatively week, they'll have less incentive to tank to begin with, negating the need to drastically overhaul the system.
Not all markets are created equal either. As we've seen in free agency, the best players are typically drawn to the big markets and warm weather cities. If you're a top college prospect in a year the Minnesota Timberwolves are scheduled to pick first, wouldn't you at least consider staying in school an extra year if you knew the Lakers or Knicks had the top pick the following year? Likewise, a player may pass on entering the draft if a weak team is drafting first and wait until a young contender like the Thunder are scheduled for a top pick.
As much as people want to eliminate tanking from the league, what impact would that have on the contending teams that rely on making deals at the trade deadline to bolster their roster for a playoff run? While the concept of having more teams fighting for playoff spots sounds great in theory, it conceivably also would make for a boring trade deadline due to a lack of teams looking to sell. Every year we see lottery teams buy out veteran players from the last year of their contracts, allowing those veterans to latch on to a contender. If the incentive of improving their lottery position wasn't in play, teams would be less likely to buy out players. That's bad news for aging veterans that would prefer the chance to go to a team that could potentially win a ring, rather than wallow away the rest of the season on a team with no chance at contending. It also deprives teams of a valuable source of late season improvement.
Knowing ahead of time where every team is going to be picking takes some of the fun out of trading future draft picks. Celtics fans may be struggling to accept the demise of their favorite team this season, but the silver lining was watching Brooklyn stumble out of the gate knowing they owned the Nets 2014 draft pick. While Brooklyn has since righted the ship, Boston could still end up with a better pick than the Nets expected to be giving up when they traded for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Depending on where Brooklyn's spot on the Wheel would have been at the time, this type of trade (which will send Boston first-round picks in '14, '16, and '18, with the option to swap picks in '17) might not even be possible under that system.

Attempting to fix one problem potentially opens the league up to several others. Perhaps if other changes were to be made in conjunction with the Wheel system, the other changes could help mitigate the concerns that I've outlined. Those are the types of ideas the league needs to discuss more if they intend to move forward with the Wheel system, or any other proposed system like it.

The good news is that Adam Silver is open to change and the pursuit of innovative ideas to help improve the league in a variety of ways. I have high hopes that our new Commissioner will implement new changes to make the NBA even better than it already is. It's just a matter of finding the right changes that will work. Perhaps they are on to something with this Wheel concept. It still needs some work, but at least they are on the right track.

The sun is setting for Steve Nash

2014-03-04T14:01:00.000-05:00

This isn't how it was supposed to end. Inevitably, every star begins to dim at some point. Talent fades as a player's body begins to betray them in the losing battle against Father Time's undefeated streak, but we always hope for great players to have the chance to go out on their own terms. Not like this.

This week, Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni suggested that we have likely seen the last of Steve Nash on a basketball court this season. His rationale was justifiable - Nash isn't completely healthy and with the team far from playoff contention, it's in the best interest of the franchise to develop young players by giving them a chance to flourish.

So if Nash is actually shut down for the rest of the season, is it possible that this is the end of his brilliant career? Nash still has one year left on his current contract worth $9.7 million, but as he discussed in the documentary series "The Finish Line" on Grantland.com, there is real concern that he could be waived this summer under the NBA's new stretch provision. Essentially, this would mean that the Lakers can cut him after this season and spread next year's salary over a three year period. So instead of counting $9.7 million against their cap next season, he would count for only approximately $3.2 million in each of the next three seasons. If the Lakers do waive Nash, it's unclear if the 40-year old point guard, who has struggled to stay healthy, will be able to find a new home.

That would be a shame, because the savvy veteran still has something left to offer and the desire to continue playing the game he loves - so long as his body allows him.

If this is the end of the line for Nash, what a ride it's been. The two-time MVP has career averages of 14.3 points and 8.5 assists per game and ranks 4th all-time in total assists. He's also one of the most efficient shooters in league history. Nash is part of an elite group of players that has produced a season shooting above 50% from the field, 40% from three-point range and 90% from the free throw line. He and Larry Bird are the only members of the 50-40-90 club to accomplish this multiple times in their careers, with Nash having done it four times. He nearly qualifies for his entire career, with a .490/.428/.904 line over his 18 years in the league and his free throw percentage is the best of all-time.

During his heyday with the Phoenix Suns, Nash was instrumental in creating the wildly entertaining "Seven Seconds or Less" offense that set the standard for pushing the pace in the modern era. While he wasn't able to achieve the ultimate goal of winning a championship, he did lead his team to several deep playoff runs that included classic series against the Spurs and Lakers.

One day these accomplishments will earn him a ticket to the Hall of Fame. With the career he's had, one thing he's also earned is the chance to decide for himself when it's time to retire. His health and a strict new collective bargaining agreement may prevent that from happening.

Perhaps the Lakers won't waive him after all. They may decide they don't need the cap space this summer and prefer to let his entire salary fall off their books after another year to free up even more space for a run at 2015's crop of free agents (which will likely include Kevin Love). Or if he is cut by the Lakers, perhaps another team will show interest. Given that he's the closest thing the league currently has to a Canadian hero, the Toronto Raptors may give him a look - especially if their own star point guard, Kyle Lowry, departs as a free agent. Neither scenario is impractical, which is not to say that they are entirely likely either.

In any case, the sun is setting on the career of Steve Nash. Whether or not he makes it back on to the court for one last run remains to be seen. Unfortunately, that decision may not be entirely up to him. Which is unfortunate for a star of his caliber. He deserves a better farewell.

Things I Noticed: Super Bowl XLVIII

2014-02-03T16:44:00.004-05:00

Super Bowl XLVIII pits the league's best offense against its best defense. Does the old saying about defense winning championships still hold true in today's NFL? Nobody pressures the QB as well as the Seahawks, who manage to do so while rarely blitzing. That means they have more guys back in coverage, led by their secondary known as the Legion of Boom. But does Peyton Manning have too many weapons at his disposal for even the league's best pass defense to handle?

This is the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the league's top offense has faced the top defense. The defensive team has won three of the previous four such meetings.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

With the game being played in the home of the Giants and Jets, the league invited New York

legends Phil Simms and Joe Namath to join in on the field for the coin toss. Namath screwed up the coin toss by flipping it before Seattle could call heads or tails. At least he still looked stylish, bundled up in a heavy fur coat, despite kick-off temperatures around 48 degrees.
A bad snap led to a safety on the first play of the game. Manning was moving up toward the line of scrimmage to make a protection change, but Manny Ramirez missed the call and sailed the snap over Manning's head. At 12 seconds, that's the fastest score in Super Bowl history. The previous record was Devin Hester's kick-off return in Super Bowl XLI, which took 14 seconds.
Pete Carroll wasted an early challenge by questioning the spot of the ball after Russell Wilson scrambled toward the sideline and made a diving attempt for the first down marker. The ball was re-spotted closer to the first down after review, but still came up short. Seattle settled for a field goal on the drive.
Doritos gave us the first good commercial of the evening with a time machine that runs on Doritos. Jimmy! You're so old!
Not a great start by Denver's historic offense, as they went three-and-out on their second drive. It's the first time this postseason that Denver failed to score on consecutive drives. On the bright side, they managed to run three plays before punting instead of turning the ball over on just one play, so that's progress!
So Jesse Pinkman is now in a movie based on the Need for Speed video game. From the looks of it, this could just as easily be a continuance of his Breaking Bad character racing away from his criminal past.
Seattle tried to get creative on offense with a flea flicker. The hand off went to Marshawn Lynch, who pitched it back to Wilson. The defense wasn't fooled and soon closed in on Wilson. After an attempt to scramble free of the pass rush, Wilson tossed the ball away. It didn't make it back to the line of scrimmage, which made it dangerously close to intentional grounding, but officials determined a receiver was close enough to avoid a penalty.
Wilson followed that play with a 37-yard lob that dropped perfectly into the hands of Doug

Baldwin to put the Seahawks inside the 10-yard line.
John Fox challenged that Wilson's pass that was dropped by Percy Harvin was not a forward pass, but reply confirmed it was an incomplete pass instead of a fumble.
Broncos linebacker Nate Irving saved a touchdown by knocking the ball out of the hands of Jermaine Kearse in the end zone. Seattle settled once again for a field goal to go up by eight. As terribly as Denver played in the first quarter, they were remarkably only down by one score at that point.
Manning missed a wide open Julius Thomas and the overthrown pass was picked off by Kam Chancellor. Manning was under pressure from Cliff Avril, but had time to deliver an accurate pass. He just missed it that time.
Denver is the fourth team in Super Bowl history that failed to get a first down in the 1st quarter. They finished the quarter with only 11 total yards, with their three possessions ending in a safety, punt and an INT.
Pass interference in the end zone gave Seattle first and goal at the 1-yard line. Tony Carter never looked back for the ball before shoving Golden Tate out of the back of the end zone just before the ball got there. Marshawn Lynch gave the Seahawks the game's first TD with a 1-yard run.

That score salvaged a quiet day for Lynch, who finished with only 39 yards on 15 carries. Beast Mode was not in full force in this game, but scoring that TD may have earned him a bag of Skittles anyway.

Tim Tebow never got to play in a Super Bowl in his time as Denver's starting QB, but his performance in these T-Mobile commercials was far better than the performance Manning had in this game.
Denver finally got a first down with about 10:30 left in the 2nd quarter! Knowshon Moreno burst up the middle for a gain of 5 yards.
Manning's arm was hit as he threw, causing him to throw up a floater that was easily picked off by Malcolm Smith, who raced 69-yards the other way for a TD.

Tough to blame Manning for that one. Moreno should have hooked back to make a play for the ball. He didn't, but Smith did and managed to make a play.

After getting stopped well short of the 20-yard line on his first two attempts to run back a kick-off, Trindon Holiday finally broke through with a big return near the 35-yard line, but the Seahawks stripped the ball from his hands and recovered the fumble. The call was overturned after replay showed Holiday was down by contact prior to the ball coming out.
The Broncos failed to convert on 4th and 2, turning it over on downs, rather than attempt a long field goal. Given the way this game was going, a field goal wouldn't have done them much good. Going for it on fourth down was the right call, but as was the case most of the night, the Broncos just couldn't execute. The best offense of all-time was shut out in the first half.
Bruno Mars put on a great show at halftime. I had never seen him perform before, but the dude

can sing. He put on a very energetic performance that pumped up the crowd. Basically everything the Broncos didn't do in the first half.
The weather turned out to be much better than expected, but you have to wonder - if the temperature had been below freezing, would the Red Hot Chili Peppers still perform without shirts on?
Percy Harvin returned the opening kick-off of the 2nd half for a TD. It was a short kick intended to keep it away from Harvin, but he took it on a bounce and ran it back. In addition to that 87-yard kick return, Harvin finished with 45 rushing yards and a catch for 5 yards. Not bad for a guy that played only one regular season game due to injury and was also forced to sit out the NFC Championship game.
Manning badly overthrew Eric Decker on a pass that was nearly picked off by Richard Sherman. Decker had been ignored most of the game with Manning not wanting to challenge Sherman.
Joe Buck: "Denver might as well send their punter home. Down 29, you get the feeling, unless they are pinned back, it's four down territory." Three plays later, Denver sent out the punt team with the ball on Seattle's 40 yard-line. Troy Aikman: "4th and long, you don't want to give Seattle this kind of field position." Thanks guys, great commentary!
Lynch burst through for 18 yards, which was easily his best run of the game. He had totaled 18 yards on 11 carries prior to that run.
Wilson scrambled for a big run that got called back for a holding penalty, leading to Seattle's first punt of the game.
Since when is Kia considered a luxury car? Almost as bizarre is that they thought using Laurence Fishburne for a Matrix reference wasn't about 10 years too late.
Demaryius Thomas caught a pass for a 10-yard gain, then fumbled it away. Byron Maxwell punched the ball out of his arms and Malcolm Smith pounced on it.
Bruce Willis just told everyone to hug the people around them. I received no hugs. #hugfest
Clearly Denver has thrown in the towel, as Jermaine Kearse shrugged off three defenders that made half-hearted attempts to make a tackle on his way to the end zone.
Seattle is the only team in Super Bowl history to score on a pass, run, kick-return, defensive return and a safety.
Is there anything more American than America? According to Bob Dylan, this is why you should buy American cars. Ok then.
Denver finally got on the board as time expired in the 3rd quarter with a 14-yard pass from

Manning. Demaryius Thomas managed to hang on to the pass despite getting tackled before the ball got there. Denver tacked on the two point conversion to pull within a 4 possession game.

Thomas set a Super Bowl record with 13 catches for 118 yards and a TD.

Omaha just asked Peyton Manning to use another city for his audible calls.
A 24-yard completion down the middle of the field to Kearse set up a 10-yard TD pass to Baldwin on the next play. Seattle was aided by more sloppy tackling by the Broncos defense, as Baldwin managed to elude three tackles to slip into the end zone.

Baldwin ended up as the Seahawks leading receiver in the game, with 5 catches for 66 yards and a score.

The record for points in a Super Bowl was Joe Montana's 49ers putting up 55 points against John Elway's Broncos. Now the Executive VP of the Broncos, Elway must have been having flashbacks of that debacle as he watched his team get blown out on the big stage once again.
Loki and The Mandarin in the same commercial? They make a good point about the best villains having British accents.
It's a Full House reunion! Dannon Oikos yogurt steals the best commercial title when John Stamos has his attempt to seduce a woman interrupted by Bob Saget and Dave Coulier.
Richard Sherman was carted off the field with an ankle injury. Sherman made headlines after Seattle's NFC Championship win over the 49ers with his post-game comments. In a drastic reversal, Sherman had nothing but praise for his opponent after the game. He called Manning a class act and a great competitor, while urging Seahawks fans not to bash the future Hall of Fame QB. Given his defense's dominant performance, it may come as a surprise not to hear the outspoken Sherman talking trash. Then again, it's tough to run your mouth when you're finishing the game standing on the sidelines on crutches.
I really have no interest in making my own soda instead of just buying Coke or Pepsi, but if anyone can make me give Soda Stream a chance, it's Scarlett Johansson.
Jack Bauer is back!
Seattle tried to put the game away with an attempt on 4th and 1, but Wilson's pass was overthrown. That left Denver about 5 minutes to score 5 TDs. That's feasible, right?
So much for that. Denver failed to even pick up a first down on their next drive. Manning had the ball knocked out of his hand as he was pulling it back to throw. The fumble was recovered by Denver, but it didn't matter since it came on 4th down. Either way, it's a turnover.
When have we ever seen a Super Bowl where the winning team pulls it's starters with over 3 minutes to go because it's such a blowout?
Manning set a long list or records this season, including single season records for passing yards

and TDs. Yet the one record that seems a bit hollow is the Super Bowl record for completions. Manning completed a Super Bowl record 34 passes on 49 attempts, but that led to only 280 yards and a single scoring drive. He also had 2 INTs and a lost fumble. Not exactly an MVP performance.
Wilson completed only 18 passes for 206 yards, but he also threw 2 TD passes. More importantly, he and his Seahawks avoided turning the ball over. Thanks to the efforts of his defense and special teams, there was no need for him to do more than that. Manning can have his stats and records, but Wilson will take the win.
Wilson is the first QB to throw for over 200 yards with at least 2 TDs and complete at least 70 percent of his passes in a win, without being named Super Bowl MVP.
Manning's 24.4 Total QBR was his lowest rating of the season and the worst by any QB in a Super Bowl since Rex Grossman in 2006 (in a game that he lost to Manning's Colts). Wilson posted an 88.1 Total QBR, which is the second best rating in a Super Bowl since 2006.
The Seahawks tied a record for the youngest team (26.4 years) to win a Super Bowl.
Malcolm Smith earned the Super Bowl MVP trophy for his performance, which included a pick-six, fumble recovery and a team high 10 tackles.
Final score: Seahawks 43, Broncos 8.

NBA All-Star Picks

2014-01-28T17:52:00.001-05:00

Last week the NBA announced the results of the fan voting that selected the starters for this year's All-Star game, while the rest of the rosters will be revealed this Thursday. The voting process always becomes a popularity contest, but the fans did a reasonable job of selecting a deserving group of starters. With the exception of Kobe Bryant, who was selected despite playing in only six games due to injury, because.. well - he's Kobe.

Injuries have robbed the league of many familiar names, including Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez, and Al Horford. All of these former All-Stars are likely out for the season, while Rajon Rondo's recent return from an ACL injury suffered last year prevents him from accumulating enough of a sample size to warrant consideration on on this list.

If it were up to me to pick the All-Star rosters, they would likely end up a bit differently from what the final rosters will end up being. So here are my picks for this year's game. Keep in mind that the requirements are for the starters to include two guards and three frontcourt players. The reserves must include the same, along with two wild card spots that can come from any position.

Eastern Conference

Starters
G - Kyle Lowry
G - John Wall
FC - Paul George
FC - LeBron James
FC - Carmelo Anthony

Kyrie Irving was voted as a starter, but Lowry and Wall are both more deserving. Irving has a minuscule lead in PER (20.06), but trails in most other advanced stats, including TS%, Assist Ratio and Estimated Wins Added. He also remains a poor defender, while Wall ranks 5th in the league in steals and Lowry is the best overall defender of the three. Lowry has flourished since Toronto jettisoned Rudy Gay to the West Coast, increasing his offense and leading a surprising Raptors squad to an unlikely Atlantic Division lead. Wall is the leader of a steadily improving Wizards team that has hovered around the .500 mark - which sadly is enough to place them in the middle of the playoff race in the pathetic Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, at what point do we start holding it against Irving that he's never played for a winning team?

The frontcourt selections are easy, with LeBron James leading the way with a Conference best PER (28.84)

and the other two right behind him. If you discount the injured Brook Lopez - James, Anthony and George make up the East leaders in PER (as well as headline the All-Stars for guys with last names that could be first names!). LeBron has been called out for coasting through the season at times this year, but that's a tribute to the high expectations we hold him too. He's still far and away the best player in the East. Melo was headed toward another All-Star spot even before his historic 62 point game last week. He's second in the league in scoring (27.2 points per game) and has increased his rebounding to a career high 9.0 boards per game. George is following up his breakout season by taking another leap to Superstar status, while leading the team with the league's best record. He's improved his scoring (8th in the league), while remaining one of the league's better wing stoppers for an elite defense.

The one thing this lineup is missing is height. Either LeBron or Melo can shift to power forward, but the starters lack a true center. Unfortunately, there isn't a legit center in the East worthy of a starting spot. Roy Hibbert may be running away with the Defensive Player of the Year award, but it'd be a stretch to consider him a starter on this squad. The whole reason the NBA revamped the voting process to include three frontcourt players is to avoid having to make such a reach just to fill a positional quota.

Reserves
G - Dwyane Wade
G - Kyrie Irving
FC - Paul Milsap
FC - Roy Hibbert
FC - Chris Bosh
WC - Joakim Noah
WC - DeMar DeRozan

Wade's numbers on a per game basis are worthy of making him a starter. The problem is, he's missed 13 games already, while cutting his minutes to a career low 33.0 per game, in an effort to keep him intact until the playoffs. He still needs to be on the team, but it's enough for me to drop him out of the starting lineup. Irving just missed the cut for the starters as well, but he still gets on the team anyway - mostly due to the lack of depth at the guard position in the East.

Milsap gets the nod for keeping the Hawks afloat in the wake of Al Horford's season ending injury, which

should have derailed the team. Yet they remain tied for the third best record in the East thanks in large part to Milsap, who is 10th in the East in PER (20.36). His numbers won't blow you away in any one category, but he produces well in a lot of areas and is a rare big man that averages over one steal, block and 3-pointer per game. Speaking of big men, the roster does need a few. Hibbert doesn't offer much on the offensive end and his rebounding is a bit disappointing for a player his size, but he still blocks 2.6 shots per game and anchors the league's best defense. Bosh's overall numbers are down, but he's offset that with improved efficiency. He's 9th in the East in PER and the only players in the Conference with a better TS% than Bosh's .613 that average over 30 minutes per game are LeBron James and Kyle Korver (who offers little else beyond outside shooting). He's extended his range to hit a respectable 37% from beyond the arc, helping Miami create the spacing their offense thrives on.

After a slow start to the season, Noah has been on a tear since Chicago traded his buddy Luol Deng. He's averaging a double-double over the past month that includes 14.3 rebounds per game over that span, while providing his typical elite defense. He narrowly beats out Andre Drummond for my last big man selection. Drummond has been a beast with the East's second best rebound rate, but his limited offensive game can be a liability thanks to his miserable free throw shooting (39% from the free throw line!). Noah, on the other hand, is one of the league's best passing big men and is essential to facilitating the Bulls offense. DeRozan gets a slight edge over Arron Afflalo for the final spot. Afflalo is a much more efficient shooter that is carrying Orlando's young offense, but DeRozan is averaging more points and has a slightly higher PER and EWA. He's also doing it for a playoff contender, while Afflalo is merely putting up stats on a bad team.

Honorable Mention
Andre Drummond, Arron Afflalo, Al Jefferson, Thaddeus Young, Kemba Walker

Western Conference

Starters
G - Stephen Curry
G - James Harden
FC - Kevin Durant
FC - Kevin Love
FC - LaMarcus Aldridge

Curry is arguably the league's best shooter, averaging a league best 3.3 per game from beyond the arc at a rate just under 40% this season. After being last year's biggest All-Star snub, Curry has taken his game to another level, proving he's not just a shooter. Not only is he 6th in the league in scoring (42.1), but he's second in assists (9.3). Kobe may have the starting job based on name recognition, which earns him votes from fans that aren't paying any attention, but Harden has supplanted him as the league's best shooting guard. His numbers are down slightly from his first season in Houston - in part due to the addition of Dwight Howard, which has cost him touches and slowed the team's pace. That's offset by Howard's presence protecting the rim helping to mask Harden's poor defense.

Kevin Durant has been the best player in the league this season and has taken his game to new levels in the

absence of Russell Westbrook. His 31.15 PER is easily the best in the league. Only three players have ever finished a season with a PER over 31 - LeBron, Jordan and Wilt. Pretty good company right there. He also has an insane 17.6 EWA. Durant is currently riding an 11-game streak of scoring 30+ points, including one game where he put up 54. His TS% (.645) is easily the best in the West among players that spend more than 20 minutes per game on the court. Oh, and he's also leading the team with the best record in the West, despite playing without his All-Star sidekick. It would take a complete collapse (or LeBron showing us some other gear we never knew existed) over the next couple months for Durant to miss out on his first MVP award.

The West is loaded with deserving big men, so narrowing it down to two other starters is going to be tough. Love is third in the West in PER and second in EWA. He's 4th in the league in scoring and second in rebounding. These types of numbers would put him in the MVP conversation if he played for a winning team, but out West a .500 record isn't going to put the Wolves in the postseason. Aldridge isn't too far behind in those categories, while his Blazers have been one of the league's most pleasant surprises this season, with the third best record in the West.

Reserves
G - Chris Paul
G - Damian Lillard
FC - Blake Griffin
FC - Anthony Davis
FC - DeMarcus Cousins
WC - Dirk Nowitzki
WC - Goran Dragic

CP3 is the best point guard on the planet and would be an automatic start if he weren't currently sitting out with a separated shoulder. He claims he'll make it back in time for All-Star weekend and if he's ready to go by then, he deserves to be in the game. Lillard should join him at the other reserve guard spot for his role in lifting Portland to contender status. His low 41.7% field goal percentage is misleading, given that nearly half his shots come from three-point range. He's actually shooting a tick better from deep (41.9%) than he is from inside the arc, making him one of the most efficient long range shooters in the league.

Anyone who thinks Griffin is just a guy that dunks a lot, hasn't been paying attention. His game is much more

well rounded these days and he has taken his game to another level to carry the Clippers since CP3 went down with an injury. He is averaging a career high in points, thanks to improved efficiency at the free throw line (a respectably 71.5%), which has long been his weak spot. Despite playing next to the league's leading rebounder, he's also managed to pull down nearly 10 boards per game. Davis has joined the conversation as one of the league's best big men by averaging over 20-and-10, with a league leading 3.1 blocks per game. If the New Orleans roster weren't so injury ravaged this season, Davis would have his team on the verge of a playoff spot. Maybe next year. Cousins can be a head case, but there is no denying his talent when he's properly motivated. This year, that's been the case more often than not. He's 4th in the West in PER and 3rd in EWA. Playing for the worst team in the West may hold him back, but his numbers are deserving of a spot on this roster. Dirk is quietly enjoying a fantastic bounce back season, ranking 6th in the West in PER, while keeping Dallas in the mix for a playoff spot. He also has an outside chance of shooting his way to the second 50-40-90 season of his career.

That leaves the final spot out West for... Goran Dragic?? There are certainly flashier names that could steal this spot, but Dragic deserves it. No, seriously. His 21.40 PER trails only Paul and Curry for West point guards and he's stepped up big time since Eric Bledsoe went down with an injury to carry the Suns. I wouldn't argue with a vote for Mike Conley in this spot given his recent sizzling play and the playoff push Memphis is making of late. Tony Parker is in the conversation too - especially when you consider that a team with the West's second best record should have at least one All-Star representative. But the Spurs have a lot more depth, which has allowed coach Popovich to rest his older stars. One of those guys could get in anyway if Chris Paul isn't ready to go by the All-Star break.

If it were possible, we'd let some of these guys from the loaded Western Conference play for the East team, but since we have to play by the NBA's rules, it's inevitable that we'll end up leaving a few guys with some legitimate gripes about getting snubbed.

Honorable Mention
Mike Conley, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, David Lee

Belichick's best year

2014-01-23T12:27:00.000-05:00

Bill Belichick has won three Super Bowls in his 14-year tenure as head coach of the New England Patriots, while coaching his team to the big game on two other occasions. This year wasn't one of them, as the Patriots fell short to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game. Yet, when you factor in everything this team went through, you can't help but wonder if this may have actually been Belichick's most impressive coaching performance.

Having a Hall of Fame quarterback to run your offense certainly helps any team to be a playoff contender, but let's be clear. As great as Tom Brady is, he can't do it alone. Given the talent around him this season, the Patriots had no business winning 12 games, earning the AFC's second seed and making it to within one game of a sixth Super Bowl appearance. Yet, remarkably, they did it.

It's been no secret this season that New England's offense struggled through a drastic overhaul this season. When the season kicked off back in September, Brady was missing his top five most targeted receivers from last season! Try finding another team whose quarterback ever had to deal with that. Danny Woodhead fled to San Diego in free agency, leaving Shane Vereen to take his place. The third year RB missed half the season with injury, yet still managed 47 catches in only 8 games. Brandon Lloyd was cut after one mildly disappointing season and decided to retire rather than return at a discounted rate.

The previous few seasons we had seen a Patriots team built around two dynamic tight ends, but that philosophy needed to be revised on the fly due to unforeseen circumstances. Chaos ensued back in June when Aaron Hernandez was arrested on murder charges. It was bad enough that the team's third most targeted receiver would spend the season in a prison cell rather than on the field catching more passes from Brady. It became a bigger issue when the rest of the team became bombarded with questions from the media regarding their former teammate. That enormous distraction could have derailed the team from the start and crippled a weaker locker room. But not this Patriots locker room. Hours after the arrest became public, Belichick cut Hernandez from the team, washed his hands of the troubled tight end and moved on. Belichick, his players and the Patriots ownership handled the situation about as well as anyone could expect. By the time the season began, the team's focus was on football, not on an ongoing police investigation.

Of course, by the time the season began, they were also still without their other stud tight end. Rob Gronkowski missed the first six games of the season while recovering from multiple off-season surgeries to his arm and back. When he did finally return to the team, Gronk once again looked like his old dominant self, until a vicious hit to the knee in a Week 14 game against Cleveland ended his season with a torn ACL. An unfortunate string of injuries accounted for a lost season where the league's best tight end managed to be on the field for only about six and half games.

Belichick's harshest critics will still crucify him for his most controversial decision of the year - letting Wes Welker get away. The loss of Welker stings even more considering he joined the same Broncos team that just knocked New England out of the postseason and is headed for the Super Bowl. But blaming Belichick for Welker leaving isn't entirely fair. For one thing, the Patriots last offer to Welker (2-years, $16 million - if you include incentives) was more than what he ended up getting from Denver (2-years, $12 million). At the time, Welker was seeking substantially more than that and felt disrespected by the Patriots offer. Yet he ended up overestimating his own value on the market and had to settle for a lesser deal after the Patriots had moved on. Welker may be a better player than Danny Amendola right now, but Welker wasn't going to stay here for the same money that Amendola got (5-years, $28.5 million - but only $10 million of that is guaranteed). Amendola is also four years younger, so Belichick felt he was a better option in the long run. While the decision may not have worked out so far, Belichick saw Amendola as a player with a similar skill set that was younger, cheaper and had more long term value. Regardless of what you think of Amendola so far (who, by the way, was hardly a bust as the team's second best receiver), Belichick made a sound business decision that made sense at the time.

Despite all the drastic losses on offense, the Patriots still managed to finish tied for second in the league in points scored (27.8 per game) and 7th in yardage (384.5 per game). While that may be a decline from years past, it's still better than any team outside of Denver's record setting season. Given all the losses in personnel, some decline was inevitable. But give credit where credit is due. As much as Pats fans want to lament Amendola's production compared to what we were used to seeing from Welker, those complaints ignore the breakout season from Julian Edelman. Not to take anything away from Edelman, but Belichick's system gets a lot of credit for turning a former 7th-round draft pick into one of the league's top receivers (105 receptions this season, which was 4th most in the league). Or what about having a 9th ranked rushing offense, despite not having a traditional workhorse starter in the backfield? Carries were primarily split between a guy that has struggled to hang on to the football and a Tampa Bay cast off that was acquired for a little used kick returner and a 7th-round draft pick. Yet Belichick made it work.

Even more surprising than what the offense accomplished under those circumstances was how the defense held up after being ravaged by injuries. Over the course of the season, New England lost four key starters on the defensive side to the season ending Injured Reserve list. None of those losses was more devastating than the Achilles injury to captain Vince Wilfork, who was the heart of this Patriots defense. Things got even worse when fellow DT Tommy Kelly went down for the season soon after. Instead of having two mountains anchoring their defensive line, the Patriots were forced to plug holes with unproven talent. Star linebacker Jerod Mayo also missed more than half the season, depriving the team of their leading tackler. Then they lost Brandon Spikes to a knee injury during their playoff run. Those four accounted for the team's best run stuffers, which explains why the defense sunk to 30th in the league in run defense (allowing 134.1 rushing yards per game). Lock down corner Aqib Talib battled through injuries in the second half of the season, missing time and struggling with inconsistency after making it back to the field. Despite being limited, he was still the team's best cornerback. For the second straight season, New England lost in the AFC Championship game after their pass defense fell apart following an in game injury to Talib, highlighting his importance to this defense.

Despite all the losses to key defensive players, the Patriots still managed to finish 10th in points per game allowed (21.1). By season's end, they were literally picking guys up off the street to plug into games, yet still ended up being the second best team in the conference. That's due to Belichick's ability to get the most out of his players. Nobody taps into the potential of as many late round and undrafted players as Belichick does.

Belichick has been named Coach of the Year three times, but probably would have more if not for his prickly demeanor with the media. The award will probably go to someone like Andy Reid, who turned around a 2-win Kansas City Chiefs team and led them to 11 wins and a Wild Card spot in the postseason. That's impressive, but Reid inherited a team loaded with Pro-Bowl caliber talent that upgraded their biggest position of need by trading for Alex Smith to be their new QB. Or Chip Kelly, who took the Philadelphia Eagles from the bottom of the NFC East to the top, while implementing his fast paced offensive system. Kelly also gets credit for sticking with the unproven Nick Foles over Michael Vick, which helped turn their season around. However, if the biggest obstacle he faced was losing his starting QB to injury and that turned into a positive when Foles flourished in his place, then that does't quite compare to what Belichick dealt with.

The Patriots are currently on a streak of 13 consecutive seasons with a winning record under Belichick. After getting off to a rough start in his first season in New England, Belichick's teams have only failed to miss the playoffs twice. One of those years was when his Patriots lost a complicated three team tie-breaker for the division title (2002). The other came in a year when Tom Brady missed nearly the entire season (2008). They missed the playoffs that year, despite winning 11 games! He has an 18-8 record in the postseason with New England and his teams have won 11 division titles. He's the best coach of this generation, but given what he's overcome, none of those seasons have been more impressive than this one.

Things I Noticed: Conference Championship Round

2014-01-20T16:53:00.000-05:00

We're down to the final four teams, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Which two teams will be heading to New Jersey?

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning set a franchise postseason record with 32 completions on his way to throwing

for 400 yards and 2 TDs to lead the Broncos to victory. It was Manning's third career postseason game with 400+ yards, tying him with Drew Brees for the most ever.
When these teams met in New England back in November, the Patriots prevailed in overtime, but this game was completely different. In the regular season match up, Manning threw for only 150 yards, while relying on their running game to move the ball. Knowshown Moreno ran for 224 yards that week, but was held to only 59 yards in this game.
Last time, these teams combined for 7 turnovers in the game. This time, neither team threw an INT or lost a fumble. New England did turn the ball over on downs once after a failed 4th down attempt, but that was the game's only turnover.
For the second straight season, the Patriots defense fell apart in the AFC Championship game after Aqib Talib was knocked out of the game with an injury. Talib had been doing a respectable job shadowing Demaryius Thomas, until a collision with Wes Welker forced Talib out with a knee injury. Without Talib, the Patriots pass defense struggled, particularly with containing Thomas, who finished with 7 catches for 134 yards and a TD.
Bill Belichick was uncharacteristically candid in his post-game comments regarding the play Talib was hurt on, accusing Welker of intentionally trying to injure his top corner. "It was a deliberate play by the receiver to take out Aqib. No attempt to get open," Belichick said. "I'll let the league handle the discipline on that play, whatever they decide. It's one of the worst plays I've seen. That's all I'll say about that." That's a pretty strong accusation, showing there's still no love lost between the coach and his former player. I have a hard time believing Welker is the type of guy to intentionally try to inflict a serious injury on anyone, but it was clear that his role on that play was to set a pick to free Thomas on a crossing route. Welker never looked for the ball and made no attempt to make a play for it before colliding with Talib. It clearly was offensive pass interference, which went uncalled, but calling Welker out for trying to hurt Talib may be pushing it a bit.
Tom Brady (277 yards, 1 TD) played fairly efficiently, but there's at least one throw he would surely like to have back. He overthrew Julian Edelman on a deep pass in the first quarter that almost certainly would have gone for a TD had they connected. It's a pass Brady says he makes 9 out of 10 times. Perhaps it was the thin air in Denver that caused the ball to sail further than he intended. The outcome of the game would have been drastically different had that pass been completed for a score. Perhaps had the score been closer late in the third quarter, New England may have opted for a field goal instead of running that failed 4th down attempt. If both of those things happen, we have a tie game. While it never really felt like the Patriots were in the game, it just goes to show that if a play or two went their way, they could have won this game.
One of the biggest take aways from this game is the vast difference in receiving options between the two teams. It's been well documented that Brady was without 4 of his top 5 receivers from last season and the loss of the injured Rob Gronkowski deprived him of that 5th target. While the emergence of Edelman was a welcome sight this season, it's been clear for weeks now that this team doesn't have enough weapons on offense when Gronk isn't on the field. The last time the Patriots lost to Peyton Manning in the AFC Conference Championship was 2006, when Manning's Colts went on to win the Super Bowl. Belichick responded by reloading the offense with trades to acquire Welker and Randy Moss. What will he do to revamp the offense this time?
Manning will be the 2nd oldest player ever to start a Super Bowl game. The only one ahead of him on that list is his boss, Broncos Executive VP, John Elway. He was 38 when he led the Broncos to a win in Super Bowl XXXIII. Elway played in 5 Super Bowls in his career, winning two of them. This will be Manning's third trip to the big game, where he'll have a chance to tie the Hall of Famer with a second ring. A win would also finally put his career postseason record over .500. He's currently 11-11 in the postseason.
Final score: Broncos 26, Patriots 16.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson hit Jermaine Kearse with a 35-yard TD pass early in the 4th quarter to give the Seahakws their first lead of the game and the defense helped them hang on to the win by forcing three 4th quarter turnovers.
On the game deciding play, Colin Kaepernick tried to throw a fade route in the end zone to

Michael Crabtree, but corner Richard Sherman was able to tip the pass to teammate Malcolm Smith for the INT. Sherman made headlines with his mouth as much as his play after the game with one of the most ridiculous post-game interviews you'll ever see. In his furious rant, he not only proclaimed himself to be the best corner in the game, but repeatedly referred to Crabtree as a "mediocre" receiver. There was plenty of trash talk between the division rivals throughout the game, but Sherman's comments after the game were classless and made him sound insane. Poor Erin Andrews looked terrified to be interviewing him! The outspoken Sherman is a passionate player that was responding emotionally in the heat of the moment, but he went way overboard and has to be smarter about what he says in the media.
Kaepernick threw for only 153 yards, but rushed for 130 yards. It's his second career postseason game with 100+ rushing yards. Those 130 rushing yards are the second most every by a QB in the postseason, trailing only the 181 yards Kaepernick ran for in last year's Divisional game against Green Bay.
The 49ers didn't allow an opposing RB to rush for 100+ yards against them all season, but Marshawn Lynch put up 109 against them in this game. That included a 40-yard TD run that tied the game in the 3rd quarter, which was the 2nd longest TD run in franchise history.
Wilson became only the 6th player ever to reach the Super Bowl in one of his first two seasons in the league. Kaepernick became the 5th player on that list last season.
Final score: Seahawks 23, 49ers 17

Things I Noticed: Divisional Round

2014-01-13T15:08:00.001-05:00

It took us four and a half months to confirm what we already suspected entering the season - that the Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers are the league's four best teams. With the Divisional Round now in the books, we now know that those are the four teams that will battle it out in the Conference Championships for the right to advance to the Super Bowl.

This was actually the first time since the 2004 postseason that the Divisional Round did not feature at least one underdog pulling off an upset win. Each of the four teams that won this week entered the game considered favorites (based on the game lines set in Vegas).

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks overcame a quiet performance from Russell Wilson (103 passing yards) to hang on to a victory over the Saints. Marshawn Lynch did the heavy lifting, setting a franchise postseason record by rushing for 140 yards and a pair of scores. His second touchdown came on a 31-yard run with under three minutes to go in the 4th quarter to put the game away.
New Orleans made things interesting in the end when Drew Brees connected with Marques Colston with 26 seconds left make it a one possession game. The late score proved to be more than just a stat padding effort in garbage time, as the Saints followed it up by recovering an on-side kick to give themselves a chance. The game would end after Colston caught a 13-yard pass along the side line. Instead of stepping out of bounds to stop the clock to give his team one last shot at the end zone from Seattle's 38 yard line, Colston tried to throw a cross field lateral to an open teammate. Except the pass went forward, which triggered a penalty for an illegal forward pass. That penalty came with a 10 second run off, which ended the game. Poor decision making by Colston and even poorer execution.
Percy Harvin took a hard hit from Rafael Bush on the opening drive to draw a penalty for hitting a defenseless receiver in the head. The flag extended the Seahawks drive on the third down play, leading to a field goal on the drive, but it came at the extent of Harvin heading back to the locker room to be evaluated. He returned later in the first quarter.
Wilson overthrew a wide open Harvin in the end zone, leading to Harvin taking another hard hit that knocked him out of the game with a concussion. The guy just can't catch a break this season. The play started with the Seahawks faking an end around with Harvin, who ended up slipping past the defense while Wilson scrambled in the backfield waiting for him to get open. Seattle had to settle for another FG on the drive.
The Saints had a 16-yard punt, fumble and missed field goal, all in the first quarter. Not a great start for New Orleans.
Only 1 first target and zero catches in the first half for Jimmy Graham. He would finish the game with only 1 catch for a meaningless 8 years. Coach Sean Payton said at halftime he knew how vital it was for them to get Graham involved, so credit Seattle's defense for not letting it happen.

Could this have been the last game for Graham in a Saints uniform? He'll be a free agent after the season and the Saints are already projected to be well over next year's salary cap. They'll need to either gut their roster or get very creative with some restructuring in order to fit him in. They could use the franchise tag to keep him, but if the league sides with Graham in assessing that he should be tagged as a wide receiver instead of a tight end (he played the majority of snaps split out wide this season) then it would be much more expensive to do so.

Khiry Robinson stumbled in the backfield and his knee hit the ground, but no defender touched him. After he got back up he was hit and the ball came out for a fumble, but the officials ruled he had already been down by contact. Except for the part where there was no actual contact while he was down!
One of the biggest plays of the day happened essentially by accident. Brees badly under threw a deep pass that should have been intercepted, but two Seattle defenders that both went for the ball inadvertently tipped it to Robert Meachem for a 52-yard completion.
After becoming the hero for the Saints last week with is 4 field goal effort, kicker Shane Graham missed on both his attempts, from 45 and 48 yards. In Graham's defense, his first miss can partially be blamed on a poor hold, where Luke McCown failed to position the ball with the laces out.
The Seahawks have not lost a home game that they led at halftime since Wilson became the starter last year.
Final score: Seahawks 23, Saints 15

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Normally when you see the Patriots put up 43 points in a game, the first thing you do is check to see how many TD passes Tom Brady threw. None?! How is that possible? This time it wasn't necessary for Brady to take over, as the running game for New England carried the offense by plowing through the Colts for 234 yards on the ground.
LeGarrette Blount led the way with 166 rushing yards and 4 TDs. That set franchise records for

postseason rushing yards and TDs. His first three TDs all were all from only 2 yards out, but early in the 4th quarter he would show how capable he is of making big plays with a 73-yard run that put the game away. Blount set a new career high with 7 rushing TDs this season, then had 4 just in this game!

Best Facebook meme of the week: You don't smoke the Blount, the Blount smokes you.

Blount is the first player in history to have 125+ yards and 4 TDs in a postseason game.
Blount's big day highlighted a major difference between the two teams. New England traded a rarely used kick returner (Jeff Demps) and a 7th-round pick to acquire him before the season and are paying him only the veteran's minimum. Indianapolis traded a 1st-round pick early in the season to acquire Trent Richardson, the former #3 overall pick, who quickly established himself as a bust. Richardson managed only 1 yard on 3 carries in the game.
Both teams knew going in that winning the turnover battle was essential to victory, so the blowout score comes as no surprise when you consider how convincingly the Patriots won that battle. New England didn't turn the ball over at all, while Andrew Luck threw 4 INTs. After throwing only 9 picks all season, Luck threw the ball away 7 times in two playoff games this year. He now has 8 INTs in his playoff career, which ties him for the most of any QB through their first three career playoff games in the Super Bowl era. While it's still early in his career, Luck is off to a 1-2 start in the postseason, which may remind Colts fans of another former QB of theirs that took some time to prove himself in the postseason.
The game plan for the Patriots defense was to key in on limiting T.Y. Hilton. While Aqib Talib doesn't have Hilton's blazing speed, the physical corner focused on jamming Hilton at the line of scrimmage to take him off his game. The plan worked accordingly for most of the game, but Hilton was able to make a play after Talib whiffed on his attempt to jam him, allowing Hilton to blaze past him for a 46-yard gain. Hilton would finish with 4 catches for 103 yards.
LaVon Brazil only managed to reel in two of his seven targets, but both of them went for long scores. His first catch went for a 38-yard TD and the next was a 35-yard score.
New England caught a break in the third quarter after Danny Aiken's snap sailed over the head of punter Ryan Allen and bounced toward the Patriots end zone. The wise move would be for the punter to knock the ball out of the back of the end zone to concede a safety, rather than risk the Colts recovering the ball either in the end zone or a few yards shy of it to set up an easy touchdown. Allen appeared not to realize this, but luckily for him, Jeris Pendelton of the Colts accidentally slapped the ball out of the end zone, forcing the safety.

Allen was injured on the play, forcing the Patriots to rely on kicker Stephen Gostkowski to punt the rest of the game. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. Will the Patriots use Gostkowski again in the role if Allen can't play? Will they sign another punter? If so, will they put Allen on season ending IR or leave him on the roster so that he could potentially return if the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl?

The Patriots made a curious move late in the game by punting from the Colts 26 yard line. Did Bill Belichick think that a 43-yard field goal on a windy New England night was too risky? Gostkowski's punt bounced into the end zone for a touchback, so the difference between punting and going for it on 4th down was likely a difference of no more than six yards. Did they assume a 21 point lead was more than enough with under three minutes remaining? It turned out to be plenty, but considering we saw two other teams this weekend make things interesting with multiple late scores thanks to an onside-kick recovery, why not take the points to be safe?
NBA Hall of Famer, Charles Barkley, was a guest of owner Robert Kraft at the game and made an appearance in the Patriots locker room to talk to the players. Was Chuck good luck? Let's hope so for New England, because Sir Charles says he plans to attend next week's AFC Championship game as well.
Tom Brady has been a starting QB for 13 seasons (not counting his missed 2008 season) and has reached the AFC Championship 8 times! Brady extended his record for playoff wins by a QB to 18 with the victory. While he only threw for 198 yards in the game, it was enough to make him the first QB ever to surpass 6,000 career passing yards in the postseason.
Final score: Patriots 43, Colts 22

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Colin Kaepernick capped a 4-yard TD run by mocking Cam Newton's "Superman" celebration by

pretending to rip open his shirt. The pose may have irked some of the Panther's players, but they should have been more concerned about falling behind by double-digits.
Michael Crabtree had a quiet game (3 catches for 26 yards), but his presence drew a lot of double teams, which opened up space for Anquan Boldin (8 catches, 136 yards) to operate in. Since Crabtree made his season debute in Week 13, Kaepernick has the 3rd highest Total QBR in the league.
The 49ers defense limited Newton by intercepting two of his passes and sacking him 5 times, but their stingy defense in short yardage situations is where they really shined. Carolina had the ball at the Niners 1-yard line twice in the second quarter and managed to come away with only a total of 3 points. One of those drives ended with Newton getting stuffed on a 4th and goal sneak.
Despite playing at what he estimated himself at about 57%, Steve Smith looked healthy enough in producing 4 catches for 74 yards and a TD. Smith now has 8 receiving TDs in 9 career postseason games.
San Francisco benefited from several missed calls by the officials. On their opening drive, Carolina safety Mike Mitchell was flagged for unnecessary roughness for a late hit against Boldin. The ball had been tipped on it's way toward Boldin, so pass interference couldn't be called, but the hit by Mitchell came before the ball ever hit the ground. There was nothing late about that hit. An incomplete pass would have brought up a 4th down, but the penalty extended the drive, which ended with a 49ers field goal. Later, Panthers corner Captain Munnerlyn was penalized 15-yards for "head-butting"a player. Munnerlyn had gotten in the face of a Niners player and their heads inadvertently bumped while the players exchanged a bit of trash talk. It was a weak call to begin with, but what Carolina really took issue with is that the officials failed to penalize Boldin for doing the exact same thing later in the game. The officials also neglected to call the 49ers for having 12 men in the huddle prior to the play that resulted in a 1-yard TD pass to Vernon Davis that gave the Niners a lead seconds before halftime. Officials attempted to justify the lack of a call because the extra player was off the field before the ball was snapped, but you can't have 12 men in the huddle because it prevents the defense from having time to adjust and substitute based on the players that will remain in for that play. So essentially, a missed or blown call aided drives that led to all 13 of the 49ers first half points in a game that they ended up winning by 13.
The 49ers picked up five first downs from penalties committed by the Carolina defense. Three of those came on 3rd down plays. At least a couple of those shouldn't have even been called.
Carolina was 0-4 this season when allowing 21+ points.
The 49ers are heading back to the NFC Championship game for the third straight year. Jim Harbaugh is the first coach in NFL history to take his team to the Conference Championship game in each of his first three seasons.
Final score: 49ers 23, Panthers 10

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning ended a personal three game losing streak in the postseason, giving him his first

playoff victory since the AFC Championship game in January 2010. Denver raced out to a 17-0 lead through three quarters before the Chargers were able to mount a comeback that must have had Broncos fans having flashbacks to last year's playoff defeat against Baltimore. Their season ended last year when they failed to run out the clock by calling five straight rushing plays, which left the Ravens time for a miracle TD pass from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones to force overtime. This time when Denver got the ball back for their final possession, they mixed up the play calling and were able to pick up a trio of first downs that allowed them to run out the clock for the victory. Two of those first downs came on Manning passes.

Manning completed a 21-yard pass to Julius Thomas to convert a 3rd and 17 on that final drive of the game. Had they not converted there, San Diego would have gotten the ball back with over three minutes left and at least one time out.

San Diego's late comeback attempt included two TD passes from Philip Rivers to Keenan Allen. Rivers (217 yards, 2 TDs) played ultra-conservatively in the first half by rarely throwing anything other than screen passes and short dump offs. He finished the half with only 20 passing yards, without a single completion to a wide receiver. In the second half, Allen finally got involved, finishing with 6 catches for 142 yards and 2 scores.

Rivers did not complete a deep pass of 15+ yards through the first three quarters, but was 6 for 7 on such passes in the 4th quarter. All five of Allen's catches in the 4th quarter were for 15+ yards. That accounted for 123 yards in the 4th quarter alone, which is the most receiving yards by a player in any postseason quarter since 2001.

After Allen's second TD, the Chargers succeeded in recovering an on-side kick. Denver's Eric Decker was unable to hold on to the ball as it bounced toward him. It deflected off his hands and bounced back toward the Chargers, who managed to pounce on it to regain possession. That led to a quick field goal drive that pulled San Diego within one score. Surprisingly, San Diego didn't try for another on-side kick after that, which turned out to be a mistake when they never touched the ball again.
The botched on-side kick recovery wasn't Decker's only blunder of the game. Decker looked like he was going to score on a punt return, but he tripped at the 30-yard line without getting touched. That drive would end with the ball bouncing off Decker's chest in the end zone and being intercepted by Donald Butler right before halftime.
Wes Welker returned to action after missing the last few regular season games with a concussion. He caught 6 passes for 38 yards and a score.
In each of their two regular season match-ups, San Diego dominated the time of possession by holding the ball for over 38 minutes. This time it was Denver controlling the clock, holding possession for over 35 minutes.
Manning threw two TD passes in the game, giving him 57 for the season. That sets a new record for TD passes in the regular and postseason combined. Dan Marino and Tom Brady each held the previous record with 56.
Final score: Broncos 24, Chargers 17

Things I Noticed: Wild Card Round

2014-01-06T14:11:00.000-05:00

It was a wild weekend in the Wild Card round to open the postseason. Three road teams advanced to the next round, including two #6 seeds. Three of the four games came down to a one possession game, with two of them ending on last second field goals.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck (443 yards, 4 TDs) overcame three turnovers to lead another miraculous comeback.

The Colts 28-point comeback is the second largest comeback in postseason history. In only his second season in the league, Luck already has eleven 4th quarter or overtime comeback victories, which is more than any other QB in the league over the last two seasons.
T.Y. Hilton set a franchise postseason record with 13 catches for 224 yards and 2 TDs. His second came when he burned his coverage for a 64-yard game winning TD with just over four minutes left in the game. It was the first time the Colts had led all game, but it was a lead they would not relinquish.

Hilton did a lot of his damage after cornerback Brandon Flowers was knocked out of the game with a concussion. The absence of one of the Chiefs top defensive players helped fuel the Colts comeback.

Kansas City started building their big lead in the second quarter and first led by double-digits after Alex Smith threw a 79-yard TD pass to Donnie Avery. That was the longest TD pass in a postseason game since the 2011 Wild Card round when Tim Tebow threw an 80-yard game winning pass to Demaryius Thomas.
Jamaal Charles got knocked out of the game on the Chiefs opening drive with a concussion, depriving Kansas City of their most explosive offensive weapon. That forced them to rely on Alex Smith a bit more than they would have liked, but Smith did not disappoint (378 yards, 4 TDs). Instead, it was the defense, which ranked 5th in the league in points allowed this season (19.1), that let them down.
The Colts converted a 4th and inches by faking to Trent Richardson. Andrew Luck kept it and ran 21 yards for a first down. It was the first time all season Luck had kept the ball on a zone read. The drive ended in a field goal that pulled them to within two scores.
Donald Brown fumbled at the 2-yard line, but the ball bounced right into the hands of Luck, who dove across the goal line to pull the Colts to within one score in the 4th quarter. You might even say that it was a lucky bounce (sorry, had to).
Only an Andy Reid coached team could burn their final time out right after the two minute warning break.
On 4th and 11, the Chiefs had one last chance to get into field goal range. Dwayne Bowe made the catch along the sideline, but couldn't keep both feet in bounds.

Bowe finished with 8 catches for 150 yards and a TD. He had 81 yards in the first quarter alone, which is more than he's had in an entire game since Week 4 of the 2012 season!

The Chiefs have now lost 8 straight playoff games, breaking a record they shared with the Detroit Lions for the longest postseason losing streak in league history.
The Colts are the first team to allow 40+ points and turn the ball over four times in a playoff game and still win.
Final score: Colts 45, Chiefs 44

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

All we heard heading up to this game was that Drew Brees and the Saints couldn't play in cold weather and struggled outside the comfort of the dome in their home in New Orleans. In the history of the franchise, the Saints were 0-5 in road playoff games. For a while those worries seemed accurate, but in the second half the Saints were able to find some rhythm on offense.
Oddly enough, it was the Saints running game that got the offense going. The Saints were only 25th in the league this season, averaging 92.1 yards per game on the ground. Despite being without starter Pierre Thomas, the Saints piled up 185 rushing yards, led by Mark Ingram (97 yards, 1 TD).
Brees gave the Saints a lead early in the third quarter with a 24-yard TD pass to Lance Moore. It was his only TD pass of the game. Brees averaged 406.7 passing yards per game in his previous three road playoff games, but finished with only 250 in this game. It's no coincidence that this was the only one of those games the Saints actually won.
Every time a Saints player got hurt, the Philadelphia crowd booed. Apparently they believed the Saints were faking injuries to slow down the Eagles up tempo offense, but booing players that are legitimately injured is a little classless.
DeSean Jackson's first catch of the night went for 40 yards to set up the Eagles inside the Saints 10-yard line. Jackson may have stepped out of bounds while running his route, which would make him ineligible to make the catch, but the Saints didn't challenge. Philadelphia capped the drive with a 1-yard TD run by LeSean McCoy on 4th down to make it a one score game at the end of the third quarter.
This game is the first time in 10 years as a defensive coordinator that Rob Ryan has coached in the postseason and his defense did a respectable job of controlling Chip Kelley's high octane offense. Saints cornerback Keenan Lewis was doing a great job of containing Jackson, but when he left with an injury in the third quarter, the Eagles were able to get Jackson involved.
Jackson drew a pass interference call that gave the Eagles the ball first and goal at the 1-yard line. Two plays later, Nick Foles gave them the lead with a TD pass to Zach Ertz.
Shayne Graham nailed his 4th field goal of the game as time expired in the 4th quarter to give the Saints a win. Graham didn't join the team until the end of the season, when the Saints cut Garrett Hartley.
Final score: Saints 26, Eagles 24

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

San Diego overcame a slow offensive start to cruise to an upset victory over Cincinnati. Philip Rivers was 5 of 6 passing in the first half for only 48 yards. That's a career low for pass attempts in a half. None of those passes were completed to a WR or Antonio Gates. Rivers would finish 12 of 16 for 128 yards and a TD.
Rather than run the two minute drill before the half, San Diego made little effort to try to score. Instead they ran the ball three straight times and went no where, before punting the ball away. They did force the Bengals to use their remaining time outs, but Cincinnati still had time to kick a field goal as time expired in the first half to take the lead. Had the Chargers at least picked up a first down, they may not have scored themselves, but at least could have prevented the Bengals from having time to score.

The play that got the Bengals into field goal range was a 13-yard completion to Jermaine Gresham. He did not control the ball all the way to the ground when he landed out of bounds, but after review, the officials determined that his forward progress was stopped prior to when he went down. It also meant the clock didn't stop after the play, which gave the Bengals a mere two seconds to snap the ball after the officials blew the whistle to resume play after the review.

The Bengals were 21 of 25 (84%) in goal to go situations this season, which was the best percentage in the league. They were 1 for 2 in these situations in this game, with their lone failure coming on the final drive of the game when they ran out of time before they were able to attempt a 4th down play.

They also turned the ball over in the red zone when Giovani Bernard fumbled at the 16 yard line when he took a hit just one step after reeling in a short pass. The turnover was a huge momentum shift for the Chargers, who otherwise easily could have been down double digits at halftime.

Andy Dalton dove head first looking to pick up a first down on a third down scramble. Not only did

he come up short, but he lost control of the ball as he hit the ground and the fumble was recovered by San Diego. The turnover set the Chargers up in Bengals territory for a drive that resulted in a field goal, which extended their lead to seven at the time.
The Bengals next two drives both ended with Dalton throwing an interception, giving him a total of three turnovers in the game. San Diego won the turnover battle 4-0. You don't win playoff games when you lose the turnover battle that decisively.
Dalton tried to go deep to a double-covered Marvin Jones on 4th and 3, but the pass was way overthrown. On the next drive he threw a pass on 4th and 13 over the head of Jones again to turn the ball over on downs for the second straight drive. When accounting for turning the ball over on downs with an incomplete pass, Dalton turned the ball over on the Bengals final five possessions, leading up to their last drive that ended when the game clock expired.
Despite holding the lead for most of the second half, Ryan Mathews was practically invisible during the second half and finished with only 13 carries. He had been bothered by an ankle injury, but the team reported that he didn't experience any issues with the ankle during the game. Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown did most of the heavy lifting in the second half. Ronnie Brown put the game away with a 58-yard TD run with just over 2 minutes left.
Final score: Chargers 27, Bengals 10

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The temperature at kick-off at Lambeau Field was an icy 5 degrees. Surprisingly, that's only the 7th coldest game time temperature at Lambeau and the 4th coldest playoff game. Even more surprisingly, several players didn't bother to wear long sleeves! I nearly had to put a jacket on just watching the game from the comfort of my couch (in a related story, my heat was on the fritz this weekend).
Colin Kaepernick seems to save his best games for the Green Bay Packers. In last year's divisional

round he set a postseason rushing record for QBs with 181 yards on the ground. When the Packers learned their lesson and shut down the read option in their re-match in Week 1 this season, Kaepernick picked them apart with his arm to the tune of 412 passing yards. This week he did a little bit of both in getting the best of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers for the third straight time. Kaepernick finished with 227 passing yards and a TD with 98 rushing yards.
Despite playing only four career playoff games, Kaepernick is already 5th all-time in postseason rushing yards by a QB (362 yards). Steve Young leads the list with 594 yards, but it took him 20 games to do it.
In only his 6th game back since returning from a devastating Achilles injury, Michael Crabtree led the 49ers in receiving with 8 catches for 125 yards.
Vernon Davis caught the only TD pass thrown by Kaepernick in the game. Davis now has 14 of the 49ers 22 TD catches this season, which is easily the highest percentage of anyone in the league. Aside from one TD catch Michael Crabtree managed in his abbreviated season, Anquan Boldin is the only other Niners player to catch a TD pass this season.
Green Bay went three-and-out on all three of their first quarter possessions and Aaron Rodgers failed to complete a pass. He finished with only 177 passing yards, which is his lowest passing total in his postseason career.
The Niners 4th ranked run defense did not give up 100+ yards to an opposing running back all season. Eddie Lacy, who rushed for nearly 1,200 yards this season (8th in the league) managed only 81 yards in this game.
Final score: 49ers 23, Packers 20

Things I Noticed: Week 17

2013-12-31T12:05:00.001-05:00

The final week of the regular season often lacks excitement, as most teams typically have playoff spots locked up by now. That's not the case this year, where nearly every contending team still had something to play for entering the week.

If you're team isn't headed to the playoffs, this is your last chance to see them play this year! Ok, so for some fan bases, that may be a good thing. The suffering is over! If you're team is heading to the postseason, this is their last chance to build momentum before the playoffs begin.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New England locked up the #2 seed in the AFC with a win over Buffalo. The game plan was clearly to pound the ball relentlessly. Despite entering the week averaging a mediocre 119.8 rushing yards per game as a team, the Patriots racked up 267 yards on the ground against the Bills, launching them all the way up to 9th in the league for the season (129.1). LeGarrette Blount led the way with 189 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.
Heavy rain in Foxboro led to a sloppy performance for the Patriots, who were lucky to survive four fumbles. I'm not sure what is more surprising - that New England was fortunate enough to recover all four of them to prevent a turnover or that Stevan Ridley wasn't responsible for any of them.
New England has won the AFC East 11 out of the past 13 years since Tom Brady became the

starter (one of those seasons the Patriots missed the playoffs was 2008, when Brady missed nearly the entire year with a knee injury). In that span, this will be the 8th time the Patriots have had a first-round bye in the postseason by finishing with one of the top two seeds in the conference. All five times they have reached the Super Bowl in this era, they had a first-round bye.
While there isn't a whole lot to like about a Bills team that finished 6-10, one thing they do really well is put pressure on the QB. Buffalo recorded an AFC high 57 sacks this year, which may have been another factor in New England's game plan to run the ball. Brady's quick release makes him difficult to bring down anyway, but the Bills only managed one sack against him this week.
Carolina earned the #2 seed in the NFC by hanging on to win a nail biter in Atlanta. The Panthers ferocious defense played a big role in the victory by sacking Matt Ryan 9 times to set a franchise record. Greg Hardy chipped in four of those sacks, giving him 15 for the season, which was third most in the league. Those 9 sacks also moved the Panthers into first in the league in team sacks (60).
Ryan threw a TD pass to Jason Snelling on Atlanta's opening drive to give the Falcons an early lead. It was the first time all season an opposing team scored a TD on the opening drive against this Panthers defense.
The Bengals overcame four INTs from Andy Dalton to secure the AFC's third seed. They took over the lead late in the first quarter when AJ Green scored on a deep pass from Dalton for 53 yards. How do you let that guy get behind you? Safety Matt Elam appeared to attempt to interfere with Green prior to the pass, but missed, allowing Green to burst past him. He ended up so wide open that he actually had time to stop and wait for the under thrown ball to get to him, yet still managed to score.
The loss deprived the Ravens of their shot to clinch the final playoff spot, making them the latest team to suffer a Super Bowl hangover. Since 1998, only one defending Champion (2004 Patriots repeated as champions) has made it past the divisional round of the postseason.
Let this be a lesson to the Ravens. Overpaying Joe Flacco forced them to let several key veterans walk away, which crushed the team's depth. Flacco rewarded his team by not only missing the playoffs for the first time in his career, but by finishing outside the top 10 in just about every major category. He also tied for the 2nd most INTs in the league (22). His 73.1 QB Rating ranked 32nd in the league, behind less heralded QBs such as Case Keenum, Kellen Clemens and Christian Ponder. When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2000, they didn't assume that meant Trent Dilfer was the best QB in the league and pay him as such. So why did they jump to that conclusion with Flacco?
The Texans started the season 2-0 and worthy of consideration as potential title contenders. Their season then spiraled out of control, as they finished 0-14 over their remaining games. There will be no Super Bowl in their near future, but at least they clinched the #1 pick in next year's draft.
Chris Johnson carried the Titans offense with 141 total yards and a TD. It was only the 2nd time all season that Johnson rushed for over 100 yards in a game.
The Colts entered the day with hopes of potentially moving up to the 2nd seed. They took care of business on their end with a rout over the Jaguars, but since the teams ahead of them all won, they remained stuck in the 4th seed and face the Chiefs next week in Indianapolis.
Jacksonville followed a three game win streak with a three game losing streak to end the season. Dating back to their Week 9 bye, the Jaguars were 4-4 in the second half of the season, providing fans a glimmer of hope that they can make the jump to being mediocre by next year!
The Dolphins were in the drivers seat for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the AFC, but they blew it in an upset loss to the Jets. Remember when people predicted that all that money Miami spent last off-season was going to help them challenge New England for the division title? Instead, they finished 8-8 and third in the division. Their franchise QB chocked in a must win game that would have put them in the postseason. Their prized free agent acquisition, Mike Wallace, was a mild disappointment. Oh, and they endured locker room turmoil centered around a bullying scandal. Other than that, it was a successful season for the Dolphins.
The Jets announced that coach Rex Ryan would return next season. Considering he led a team many believed would be one of the league's worst to an 8-8 record, the vote of confidence from ownership is well deserved. Although, Ryan is the one that drafted Geno Smith. The Jets may not have been one of the worst teams in the league, but Smith was very clearly one of the worst quarterbacks.
The Viking waved farewell to the Metrodome with a victory over the struggling Lions. Explosive

rookie Cordarrelle Patterson scored twice, on a 50-yard run and on an 8-yard pass from Matt Cassel.
Despite the close score, this wasn't a game to get overly excited about. Neither team had a shot at the postseason, so Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson both sat out. As you might expect, both offenses are terrible without their star players.
Eli Manning exited with a high ankle sprain shortly after throwing his league leading 27th INT. That left him one short of tying his brother Peyton for the Manning family record of 28 picks in a season. With all the records Peyton has been breaking this season, it sure was nice of Eli to avoid stealing his thunder by taking one of his records.
Mike Shanahan coached his last game in Washington, as his team fell to 3-13. Good luck to the guy that replaces him, considering he has the task of rebuilding this miserable team without the benefit of a first-round pick (they owe their pick to St. Louis for the RGIII trade).
For a few hours after their win over Cleveland, the Steelers had a glimmer of hope that they might actually make the postseason. Losses by Miami and Baltimore kept that hope alive, but they still needed some help. Those hopes were crushed by San Diego in the late afternoon games, so Pittsburgh will instead finish 8-8 and outside the playoffs for the second straight season.
Josh Gordon finished the season with a 7 catch, 82 yard performance that kept him at the top of the leader board for reception yards this season. He finished with a league high 1,646 yards.
They broke his collarbone, so he crushed their dreams. Aaron Rodgers returned after missing seven games to help the Packers beat a Bears team responsible for that injury in a game that decided the NFC North. Green Bay went only 2-4-1 while Rodgers was out of action, but the collapse of the Bears (2-4 over their final 6 games) and Lions (lost 6 of their last 7 games) kept the Packers in the mix until Rodgers was able to return and save their season.
Randall Cobb also returned for the Packers, catching 2 TD passes. His second catch was a game winning 48-yard deep pass on 4th and 8 with 38 seconds remaining. Chicago sent a blitz after Rodgers, but he was able to roll out of the pocket to avoid the pass rush, giving Cobb time to get open downfield. Green Bay converted on 4th down three times on that final drive. With their season on the line, the Bears weren't able to hold them when it mattered most.
Peyton Manning only needed one half against the Raiders to cap off his historic season. With

266 yards through the first two quarters, Manning broke Drew Brees' passing record and added to his record setting TD total. With a 31 point lead and the game in hand, Manning took a seat for the rest of the game. He finishes the season with 5,477 yards and 55 TDs. Just think of what kind of numbers he would have been capable of if he went full throttle for 60 minutes every week!

Not so fast. The league's record keepers are taking a second look at Manning's stat line this week. Specifically a 7-yard completion to Eric Decker in the first quarter. League officials claim that in one camera angle, the pass looks like a lateral, which would mean the yardage gained by Decker would count as rushing yards rather than passing yards credited to Manning. If the league makes a stat correction, Manning would fall short of the record Brees set in 2011. Stay tuned for the ruling later this week.

The Broncos set a new record for points scored in a season (606), beating the mark set by the 2007 Patriots. For all the records that Manning and the Broncos set this season, it won't be nearly as meaningful if it all ends the same way it did for New England back in '07 - without a ring.
The Saints may have blown their division lead, but they still managed to clinch a playoff spot with a win over Tampa Bay. Drew Brees passed for 381 yards, 4 TDs and even ran in another score for good measure.
Phil Dawson's 40-yard kick as time expired put San Francisco in the postseason as a 5th seed and shut the Cardinals out of the playoffs. Arizona had tied the score twice in the fourth quarter and the teams exchanged a total of three field goals in the final 1:45 of the game. Dawson's other late quarter field goal was a career long 56-yard kick.
The Niners ground game never got going, but Colin Kaepernick (310 yards, 2 TDs) eclipsed the 300 yard passing mark for only the second time this season. His favorite targets, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, each caught TD passes. Aside from one TD that Michael Crabtree caught a couple weeks ago, those two are the only Niners receivers to catch one of Kapernick's 21 TDs this season.
Despite knowing a win would put them in the postseason, San Diego struggled to sneak past a Chiefs team that was resting most of it's starters. The Kansas City B team put up a tougher than expected fight that nearly kept the Chargers out of the playoffs, but field goal on the opening possession of OT gave them a lead and the defense managed to hold off the retaliation drive by the Chiefs.
The Seahawks clinched the NFC's top seed with a win against St. Louis. The road to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle, which remains one of the harshest environments for opposing teams to play in. It's hard to imagine any team coming in and beating them on their home turf behind the support of the 12th man, but if they travel to the East Coast for the Super Bowl, that may be a different story.
Tony Romo wasn't on the field, but the result may have reminded a lot of Cowboys fans of him. In a game that would decide the NFC East, Romo was forced to sit out with a back injury that will require surgery. Dallas received the ball in a two point game with under two minutes to go, but with a chance to win the game and the division, backup QB Kyle Orton threw an INT on his first pass attempt of the drive to spoil the Cowboy's comeback. Somehow, Cowboys fans will find a way to blame Romo for this.

Orton led a drive that ended with a TD pass to Dez Bryant with under four minutes to go, but they failed on the two point conversion that would have tied the game. The defense forced a three-and-out to give thew Cowboys one last shot, until Orton blew it.

The Cowboys finished 8-8 for the third consecutive season. They have become the definition of mediocrity, with a .500 record since their last Super Bowl title in 1995.
Nick Foles finished the season with finished the season with 27 TDs and only 2 INTs in 12

games. Although, he didn't start all of those games. The Eagles won 7 of their last 8 games once Foles finally became the starter.
LeSean McCoy added 131 yards to his league leading rushing total and finished with 1,607

rushing yards for the season.
Black Monday is known as the day after the final day of the regular season where coaches from disappointing teams are given the axe. Not literally, I mean nobody's head is getting chopped off. They just get fired. Jim Schwartz, Greg Schiano, Mike Shanahan, Leslie Frazier, and Rob Chudzinski were this year's victims.

With the regular season at an end, here's how the playoff spots lineup.

AFC: 1) Denver 2) New England 3) Cincinnati 4) Indianapolis 5) Kansas City 6) San Diego

NFC: 1) Seattle 2) Carolina 3) Philadelphia 4) Green Bay 5) San Francisco 6) New Orleans

Celtics shouldn't win the Atlantic

2013-12-26T12:41:00.004-05:00

The Eastern Conference has been extremely top heavy this season. Only three teams currently have winning records, while the rest of the conference is a wasteland littered with underachievers and rebuilding teams.

The Atlantic Division has been historically pathetic, with a .357 combined winning percentage. The worst combined winning percentage in league history is .384 (1970-71 Central Division). The Toronto Raptors currently lead the Atlantic with an 11-15 record (.423) that puts them on pace to be the worst division winner ever. With what is expected to be the most loaded draft class in a decade coming up, the Atlantic appears to be the division nobody wants to win.

That's right, Boston. You should not be rooting for your Celtics to win the division. Blasphemy! Hey, I get the reluctance to cheer against your own team, but as long as the NBA rewards losing teams with high lottery picks, losing is actually in the best long term interest of the team.

Tanking is such an ugly word, but for a rebuilding team it can be a necessity. Make no mistake, the Celtics are in full rebuilding mode. Despite being only percentage points behind Toronto for the division title, which by default would award them with the 4th seed in the East, this is not a championship caliber team. Boston (12-17) is half a game behind Toronto, but the Raptors -0.2 point differential (a better indicator of future results than the actual won-loss record) would point to them being closer to a .500 team. They've also improved since ridding themselves of the inefficient Rudy Gay earlier this month, winning five of their past eight contests.

The Celtics, with their -1.9 point differential, are what their record says they are. Coach Brad Stevens has them hustling on defense to post a respectable 102.0 defensive efficiency rating thus far, but that's influenced by a soft schedule. The average winning percentage of their opponents thus far has been only .470 this season. The offense ranks 23rd in efficiency, scoring 99.4 points per 100 possessions. The eventual return of Rajon Rondo will undoubtedly help, but we're also talking about a guard that doesn't shoot well from outside and has never proven himself to be a reliable go to scorer. Racking up the assists only works if your teammates can hit shots.

The worst place to be in the NBA is what I like to call no-man's land. This is when teams annually fight for one of the bottom playoff seeds without ever showing signs of improvement. They aren't getting high lottery picks and they aren't really contenders. It's essentially the state of purgatory the Bucks have been stuck in for years. Winning the Atlantic takes the Celtics out of the lottery, but doesn't come close to making them a contender. Sure, they'd have a puncher's chance against a 5th seed in the first round, but they wouldn't have a prayer in a seven game series against the Heat or Pacers.

There are multiple ways to rebuild in the NBA, but acquiring a high draft pick is the most realistic one for this team. It's a star driven league, so you need at least one of those stars to win a title. History has shown us that, with rare exception, championships are won by teams led by one of the top dozen players in the league. The Celtics don't currently have that type of player. Let's face it, Boston has never been a prime destination for NBA free agents and the Celtics won't have cap space to lure in a star anyway. Perhaps you can swing a blockbuster trade for a star, as the Celtics did in 2007 when they acquired Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. But let's remember that it took the number five overall pick in that year's draft to pry Allen away from Seattle. The Celtics don't have the assets to pull off that kind of trade unless they have a high draft pick to use as bait.

Scouts are drooling over the potential of this year's top prospects. There are few that don't believe that Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle or Jabari Parker aren't destined for greatness. There is always risk with prospects, but that shouldn't scare teams away from wanting to draft them. We can't be certain how any of these prospects will pan out, but in sports you have to build your strategy based on what's most likely to happen. There are no guarantees, but you calculate the risks and rewards in order to determine the best path toward success. Drafting a young, cost effective star is the best way to get back to being a contender.

To be clear, this is not to suggest that the team intentionally try to lose. You don't want your players to have that type of mentality, as it can build a losing culture in your organization. But the goal for the organization as a whole shouldn't be to go all out for a playoff spot either. The coaching staff can find creative ways to experiment with rotations designed toward developing their young players rather than leaning on veterans that don't have a long term future with this team, while GM Danny Ainge may help find new homes for some of those veterans.

The idea isn't to try to be the worst team in the league. The draft lottery does nothing to guarantee the top pick anyway, as long time Celtics fans know all too well. Luckily, this isn't like the Tim Duncan draft, where there is one franchise player followed by a steep drop off in talent. This draft could potentially have as many as a handful of franchise caliber prospects. There may be no phenom the likes of LeBron James, but the depth of talent with All-Star upside is as deep as we've seen since that 2004 draft.

Ideally, the Celtics would like a top five draft pick, where the likelihood of finding a franchise player seems relatively high in this stacked draft class. Yes, history has shown that you don't need to win the lottery to find elite talent. Paul Pierce (10th overall), Dirk Nowitzki (9th) and Paul George (10th) are examples, but even though those All-Stars weren't selected with one of the top picks in their respective drafts, they were still lottery picks. Players picked outside the lottery rarely come with more upside than a serviceable role player. Winning the Atlantic Division prevents Boston from getting a lottery pick.

The wild card scenario is that Boston owns Brooklyn's first-round pick this year, thanks to the Pierce/Garnett trade that already has backfired on the Nets. Their aging veterans appear to have little left in the tank, the team has been dealing with various injuries and Jason Kidd hasn't learned how to coach yet. Brook Lopez, who arguably is the team's best player, will miss the rest of the season with a broken foot, dimming their chances even further. Perhaps in an ideal world, the Celtics would win the Atlantic, giving their fans something to root for this year and giving their young players valuable playoff experience, yet still end up with a high draft pick from the Nets. I'm not counting on it though. Not yet anyway. Despite all their issues, Brooklyn still has too much talent to be this bad all season, so it's too early to count them out of making a run at the division title, or at least one of the bottom playoff spots in a weak conference. The worst case scenario would seem to be both teams making the playoffs, leaving the Celtics without any lottery picks. If both teams miss the postseason and they end up with two lottery picks, that only increases their odds of landing a top three pick. Maybe even two of the top picks! Hey, dare to dream, right?

It will be tough for Celtics fans to watch their team sit out this postseason, but the Big Three era is over and it's time to move on. The quickest way to move on involves drafting an elite prospect or using that lottery pick as trade bait to acquire a star. With no realistic shot to contend for a title with this current core, winning the Atlantic Division could be the worst thing that could happen to this team.

Things I Noticed: Week 16

2013-12-24T14:14:00.002-05:00

With only one week left in the regular season, the playoff races in each conference are nearly mirror images of each other. In the AFC, all four divisions have been clinched, while the Chiefs have settled into the 5th seed. The only drama left is a four team fight for the final spot. Meanwhile, nobody in the NFC has clinched a division yet and only three teams have clinched a playoff spot. It's shaping up to be an exciting finish down the stretch where almost every contending team still has something to play for.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

The Patriots go some revenge for last year's playoff loss by putting a dent into the Ravens playoff hopes this season with a blowout victory in Baltimore. New England got off to a quick start with two first quarter TDs and built a 20 point lead by the 4th quarter when the Ravens finally got on the scoreboard.
After the Patriots went up by three possessions with a LeGarrette Blount TD run just before the two minute warning, Baltimore waived the white flag by sending Joe Flacco to the bench. With backup Tyrod Taylor under center, the Ravens next two possessions were a botched snap that was recovered by Chandler Jones for a defensive score and a pick six by Tavon Wilson. A 20 point deficit would take a miracle to overcome in the final two minutes, but with your season on the line, why not at least try? Flacco played terribly in this game, but he gives you a better shot than Taylor! Baltimore no longer controls their fate, as it will take a win next week as well as a Miami loss for them to grab the final wild card spot.
Bill Belichick took a lot of heat in the off-season for his decision to let Wes Welker walk away in

free agency and replace him with Danny Amendola. Those frustrations were voiced louder as Welker got off to a hot start in a historic Broncos offense, while Amendola struggled to stay on the field, missing four games. What Patriots fans failed to realize is that Amendola didn't necessarily need to be the one to step up as the new top receiver. Welker's departure paved the way for Julian Edelman to flourish in a breakout season. As much as people want to complain about losing Welker, they should stop to notice that Edelman is having the more productive season.

Welker: 73 catches, 778 yards, 10.7 yards per catch, 10 TDs.
Edelman: 96 catches, 991 yards, 10.3 yards per catch, 6 TDs.

Miami left the door open for Baltimore (or San Diego) to steal that last playoff spot from them by getting shut out in Buffalo. This sure didn't look like a team on the cusp of playing in the postseason. The Dolphins were limited to 103 total yards, which is the third lowest offensive output in franchise history.
Ryan Tannehill, the league's most sacked QB, was harassed by constant blitzing from a hungry Bills defense that managed to take him down 7 times. Tannehill was sacked or under pressure on 44% of his drop backs and completed only 2 of 8 passes for 15 yards when under duress.
Buffalo may be out of the playoff picture, but give them credit for playing the spoiler role against a divisional opponent. The defense was the primary force behind their victory, but a running game that put up over 200 yards played a big part as well. Fred Jackson led the way with 111 yards and a score.
Andy Dalton (366 yards, 4 TDs) had a big game to lock up the AFC North title for the Bengals. Dalton hasn't had the most consistent season, but his 31 TDs are tied for the third most in the league.
Cincinnati clinched their first division title since 2009. The Bengals have now made the playoffs in all three of Dalton's seasons. It's the first time in franchise history the team has made the postseason for three consecutive seasons. If they win next week when the Ravens come to visit they will finish undefeated at home for the first time since 1988, when they reached the Super Bowl.
Adrian Peterson returned after a one game absence, but the lopsided score prevented him from getting involved. He finished with 54 yards on only 11 carries. You know, because letting Matt Cassel throw the ball more is clearly a better idea. Cassel completed less than half his passes (13/27) and turned the ball over four times.
The Colts built some confidence by going into Kansas City and beating a Chiefs team that will likely be their first round opponent in two weeks when the playoffs begin. KC is locked into the top wild card spot, while the Colts will likely finish in the 4th seed, unless they win next week and the Bengals lose.
For reasons that can't possibly go beyond "we gave up a first-round pick for this guy, we can't give up on him yet", Trent Richardson received the bulk of the carries, yet did little with those chances. Meanwhile, Donald Brown ran for a team high 79 yards on only 10 carries and found the end zone twice - once on the ground and another on a reception.
The loss is a slight setback for the Chiefs, but they have already locked up a playoff spot and the 5th seed. Losing at home to a team you may need to travel to visit in the postseason could have greater ramifications in the long term, but given that the Chiefs don't have a lot left to play for, it probably doesn't mean as much to them as it does to the Colts.
Robert Quinn recorded three sacks to help stymie the Bucs, giving him a league leading 18 on the

season. That also set a new Rams franchise record for sacks in a season.
Tampa Bay got on the board first with a short plunge by Bobby Rainey for a score, but Rainey (37 yards on 20 carries) and the rest of the Bucs offense did little else the rest of the way.
Geno Smith had perhaps the best game of his short career in leading the Jets over Cleveland. He threw two TD passes in a game for the first time since October and ran another in for his 5th rushing score of the season.
Whispers about the future of Rex Ryan in New York have grown louder all year, but considering this Jets team was picked by most to be one of the worst in the league and was starting a rookie QB, it's fair to say the Jets have exceeded expectations. If they win next week to finish 8-8, that would be quite an accomplishment and one worthy of keeping Rex around for at least another year.
Josh Gordon caught only 6 of his 16 targets for 97 yards and was kept out of the end zone for the first time in six weeks. He was targeted in the end zone, but failed to come down with the catch on a fade route.
Facing 4th and goal from the 10 yard line with the Cowboys season potentially on the line, Tony Romo dropped back to pass and found DeMarco Murray on a short pass to the right side for a game winning TD with just over a minute left. It was Romo's 23rd career comeback in the 4th quarter or OT. Since Romo became the starter in Dallas back in 2006, only Peyton Manning (25) has more late comebacks. So this is nothing new for Romo. We just aren't used to seeing it from him once the calendar flips to December and the pressure begins to build.

Just his luck - Romo finally has a clutch December win, but suffers a season ending injury in the process. On Monday a Cowboys source revealed that Romo has a herniated disk that will require surgery. Dallas will face the Eagles next week in a game that will decide the division and grant the winner a spot in the postseason. Coach Jason Garrett has refused to rule Romo out yet, but that seems like posturing to force the Eagles to prepare for him. Despite getting an epidural shot to treat the pain, Romo looks like a long shot to play next week.

After the Cowboys coaching staff was criticized last week for running the ball only 23% of the time in the second half of last week's loss (despite leading most of the game), Dallas ran the ball 42% of the time in the second half this week (despite trailing). Murray finished with 96 yards and a rushing score.
Washington managed only 297 yards against a Dallas defense that allows a league worst 418.6 yards per game. So maybe Kirk Cousins isn't the answer after all. After falling to 3-12, Washington has already clinched the worst record of Mike Shanahan's coaching career, so he no longer appears to be part of the answer either.
Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD) broke Art Monk's franchise record for receptions in a season. He's now up to 107, with one game left to play.
The Panthers became the NFC's 2nd team to clinch a playoff spot and jumped ahead of New Orleans in the division with their win over the Saints. Both offenses struggled in a game drenched in torrential downpour, but after the skies began to clear up, Cam Newton was able to find Domenik Hixon for the game winning score with 23 seconds left. After the defense forced the Saints into a three-and-out, Carolina was given one last chance with under a minute left. Newton hit Ted Ginn, Jr. with a deep pass for 37 yards and Greg Olson's catch got them to the Saints 14-yard line, where the Panthers spiked the ball to stop the clock. That left them just enough time to set up the TD pass to Hixon for the win.
The Saints once looked like one of the league's most dominant teams, but have now lost two straight and need to win next week to ensure they even make the playoffs. The Saints have a powerful offense, but despite still being top 5 in yards per game, they have sunk to a mediocre 13th in points per game (24.8). Drew Brees is second in the league in passing yards and passing TDs, but the Saints are 25th in the league in rushing yards and rushing TDs.
Nate Washington slipped behind the defense to grab a 30-yard reception for the go-ahead score to help the Titans snap a three game losing streak.
Jaguars center Brad Meester was playing in the last home game of his career. He is retiring after this season after 14 years in Jacksonville. The Jaguars honored him by setting him up for his first career reception. After reporting as an eligible receiver, Meester moved from center to tight end, where they ran a screen pass for him. The play gained only 9 yards, but Meester couldn't have been more thrilled. Sure, he would have liked to have scored, but as he said after the game, he was just glad he didn't drop the ball.
Peyton Manning broke Tom Brady's record with his 51st TD pass of the season. Manning

previously held the record at 49, until Brady broke it in 2007. Manning reclaimed the title with one game remaining. Manning (400 yards, 4 TDs) had three of those TDs in the fourth quarter, with the final one coming with under five minutes left. Despite a comfortable lead at the time, you could tell Manning was gunning for the record in that fourth quarter, knowing that pending the outcome of New England's game later that afternoon, he may not have had the chance to play in Week 17.

Brady was predictably humble in praising Manning for his accomplishment, but don't think that he's not already thirsting for a shot to break the record again next year. Give him a healthy Gronkowski and anything resembling an elite WR and he'll make a run at it.

As it turns out, the Patriots did win, preventing Denver from locking up the top seed this week. Which means Manning will have a shot at breaking Drew Brees' passing record next week. He needs only 265 yards to surpass the 5,476 Brees threw for in 2011.

Brees seems to pass for 5K yards every year, so expect him to come after Manning as well if his record falls this year. With the way passing numbers are escalating in recent years due to rule changes favoring offense, expect a lot of these types of records to fall.

The win clinched the division for Denver, but it wasn't all good news. Stud linebacker Von Miller tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Unless he has the same kind of super healing powers that Adrian Peterson has, we have to expect he may miss some time next season as well. Peterson injured himself around the same time in 2011 and barely made it back in time for Week 1, which at the time seemed like a miracle.
Andre Johnson may have been overshadowed by Manning's historic achievement, but his four catches this week gives him his 5th season with 100+ catches, tied with Wes Welker for most all-time.
The Giants upset the Lions in overtime, ending Detroit's playoff hopes. The Lions have dropped five of their last six games and blew fourth quarter leads in all of them. Dating back to last season, the Lions have lost 9 straight games in December and January (yet Tony Romo gets dragged through the mud, while far fewer mention Matthew Stafford's late season struggles).
Detroit had a fourth quarter lead, until Stafford threw a pick-six that tied the game. After the Giants took the opening drive of overtime to the brink of field goal range, the Lions defense saved them by recovering a fumble, but Stafford and the offense gave it right back after a three-and-out on their only OT possession.
Eddie Lacy set a Packers franchise rookie rushing record. He is the first Packers RB in franchise history with 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs.
After a goal line stand, the Steelers block a field goal. While the ball was loose, a Pittsburgh player illegally batted the ball out of bounds. Since officials determined that the Steelers didn't have possession prior to the penalty, it gave Green Bay the ball back after a half the distance to the goal penalty. The Packers score on a Lacy TD on the next play.

Pittsburgh appeared to have possession after the blocked field goal, with the recovering player attempting to lateral the ball back to a teammate, which resulted in the ball illegally being batted out of bounds. The penalty was legit, but it should still have been Steelers ball.

Troy Polamalu sacked Matt Flyn, forcing a fumble that the Steelers recovered at the Packers 17-yard line. Five plays later, Le'Veon Bell plowed into the end zone for the game winning score. Despite an 0-4 start to the season, Pittsburgh remains mathematically alive for the postseason. It would take a win next week and a loss by Miami, Baltimore and San Diego to do it, but their season isn't over yet!
Aided by a 70-yard kick-off return, Green Bay managed to get all the way to the Steelers 1-yard line with a chance to tie the game, but a false start penalty backed them up five yards. Not only that, but it also resulted in a 10 second run off on the clock, which left time for only one last play, which was an incomplete pass off the fingertips of Josh Boykin.
Carson Palmer connected with Michael Floyd for a game winning TD near the end of the fourth quarter to keep the Cardinals playoff hopes alive. Rarely can a team overcome a four INT game from their QB and still win, especially in a hostile environment like the one in Seattle, yet they somehow managed. Two of those picks came in the end zone, robbing Arizona of points, but Palmer came through when it mattered most in clutch.

Russell Wilson lost for the fist time at home in his career as he struggled against Arizona's defense. He completed only 11 of 27 pass attempts for 108 yards, 1 TD and an INT. His 11.5 Total QBR was the worst rating of his career. The poor performance came despite an ideal match up where he should have been able to thrive. Not only does he typically perform much better at home, but entering this week, Wilson led the league in passing yards and touchdowns when under pressure. The Cardinals blitzed on 48% of opponent's dropbacks this season, which is the most in the league.
Marshawn Lynch struggled against the league's top run defense, but that's not a huge surprise considering his recent decline. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Lynch averaged 87.1 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. Since then, those numbers have dropped to 57.8 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.
The Chargers needed a lot to go right for them to remain in the playoff mix. Losses by Miami and Baltimore helped them out, but they still needed to take care of business themselves. This week against Oakland, they did just that. Ryan Mathews ran for 99 yards and a score and has now set a new career high for rushing yards.
Oakland hurt themselves with a long list of mistakes. They committed 12 penalties in the game, including a bonehead taunting penalty that aided the game winning TD drive. When they had the chance to later pull within one score, Rod Streater dropped a pass in the end zone.
The 49ers won the last regular season game ever to be played at Candlestick Park to punch their

ticket to the postseason on Monday night. The Niners waved farewell to their home stadium by inviting several former players, including Steve Young and Jerry Rice, to share in the celebration.
On a night that the 49ers celebrated one of the most infamous plays in team history, "The Catch" was made by a defensive player this time. Trailing by three with just over a minute remaining, Atlanta was in the red zone looking for a game winning score. Matt Ryan threw over the middle to Harry Douglas, who bobbled the the catch enough for a defender to tip it. Navarro Bowman snatched the ball out of the air and took it all the way for a score the other way to clinch the victory for San Francisco.
As for the Falcons, the last time they faced this Niners team it was in the NFC Championship game and they were a favored 13 win team playing at home. A lot has changed since then, as the Falcons have now become one of the league's worst teams. This will be Matt Ryan's first losing season and the worst season the franchise has suffered since 2007, the year before Ryan arrived. I would expect them to bounce back next year, health permitting, but not to the level of being a contender. They overachieved last season, considering nobody had a better record than them despite only finishing 5th in point differential (+120), which would suggest they played more like an 11 win team. As great as Julio Jones was before this lost season, trading up for him deprived the team of several draft picks the past couple seasons that has depleted the team's depth. Regression was to be expected and a few key injuries were responsible for the team dropping even further than expected. That's life in the NFL, where the margin for error can be razor thin.
With one game left, Denver seems to be a good bet to set a record for points scored in a season. New England holds the current record with 589 (from the 2007 season) and Denver already has 572. Yet even if they get the record, their point differential (currently +187) won't come anywhere near the +315 that Patriots team put up in their undefeated regular season. It's unlikely to even approach New England's point differential last season (+226)!

Things I Noticed: Week 15

2013-12-17T17:38:00.002-05:00

It was a rough week for division leaders looking to clinch playoff spots, division titles or improve their seeding. Six of the eight teams that entered the week leading their division ended up losing this week. The Colts are still the only team that has already clinched their division and are one of only four teams locked into the postseason. The division leaders that fell this week have two more weeks to cement their status as playoff contenders and regain momentum heading into the postseason.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

Denver's grasp on the AFC's top seed slipped just a bit with an upset loss at home to the Chargers on Thursday night. San Diego was able to chew up the clock to protect their second half lead thanks to a rushing attack that piled up 177 yards on the ground.
The Broncos also hurt themselves with untimely penalties. After forcing the Chargers into a three and out near their own goal line early in the third quarter, Denver looked to get the ball back in great field position. Until an offside penalty on the punt gave the Chargers a first down. San Diego didn't end up scoring on the play, but they did burn about an extra seven minutes off the clock and pushed Denver further back for their next possession.
The fatal mistake came late in the fourth quarter on a turnover. Peyton Manning was hit as he threw the ball, which wobbled through the air for an easy INT that put the Chargers in range for a field goal to put them up by 10.
Manning's performance (289 yards, 2 TDs) was slightly sub par by his lofty standards, but the

pair of TD passes upped his total to 47 for the season. He needs three more TDs over his final two games to break Tom Brady's record. After this loss, the Broncos may not have the benefit of resting Manning in Week 17, which increases his odds of setting the record. On the other hand, it also increases the odds that New England or Kansas City could steal the top seed away from them.
Chaos erupted in the parking lot outside Sports Authority Field in Denver following the game when an altercation led to three men getting stabbed, leaving one of them in critical condition. Police believe there may have been a fourth victim that fled the scene. They reportedly have three suspects in custody, but have not yet determined the cause of the incident. We don't know if the fight broke out over anything involving the game or either team involved, but let's hope that's not what it was about. Sports are meant to entertain. I'm as passionate about my team as the next guy, but losing a game is no reason to lose our heads. Let alone go around stabbing people.
Ryan Tannehill (312 yards, 3 TDs) threw a 14-yard pass to Marcus Thigpen with 1:15 left in the 4th quarter to cap a shocking comeback against New England. Miami started the drive with great field position after Stephen Gostkowski's kick-off bounced out of bounds for a penalty, giving the Dolphins the ball at their 40 yard line. Tannehill also converted a key 4th and 5 to keep the drive alive.
With just over a minute remaining, Tom Brady led the Patriots all the way into the red zone with a chance for a comeback. Despite knowing New England had all their time outs left to start the drive, Miami left the middle of the field wide open, allowing Brady to pick them apart with short passes to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. Yet when they got close to the end zone, Brady threw incomplete passes on three straight attempts, followed by a game ending INT in the end zone.
The last incompletion prior to the turnover was a prime example of how the Patriots will miss Rob Gronkowski. Brady's pass sailed just over the reach of Michael Hoomanawauni (who made a spectacular one handed catch for a TD earlier in the game). Gronk is a couple inches taller and has an edge in athleticism, so that same pass is almost certainly a game winner if it were him out there instead.
Miami can feel fortunate that they ended up winning the game, because a botched field goal in the 2nd quarter would have been much more embarrassing had they lost by three points. On the play, the holder wasn't looking as the snap came, so the ball hit him square in the face, bouncing away for a fumble that was recovered by the Patriots.
Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a win over Washington in a battle of two 2012 playoff teams that have fallen flat this season. Atlanta nearly blew the lead by allowing Kirk Cousins to lead a last minute TD drive, but rather than tie the game with an extra point and send the game to OT, Washington elected to go for two to win the game. When the conversion failed, Atlanta ended up holding on to the 1 point win.

While it was hardly the conventional decision to go for two in that situation, I actually don't hate the decision. Playing on the road, they had to expect the odds to be against them in overtime. It's already a lost season at this point, so what did they have to lose? The downside of course is that Washington doesn't own their first round draft pick, as they owe it to St. Louis from the draft day trade two years ago where they traded up to get RGIII. So they have no reason to tank for a better pick. That doesn't matter to Mike Shanahan though, since he knows he likely won't be back next season anyway.

The big news leading up to this game of course was Shanahan's decision to bench RGIII for the

rest of the season. His rationale is that if Washington can't compete for a playoff spot this season then it's in the team's best interest to ensure RGIII makes it through the season healthy so he doesn't have to spend the off-season rehabbing an injury for the second straight year. Logic that doesn't make sense if he doesn't expect to be back next year, but more importantly, Griffin isn't currently injured! Part of the tension between the coach and owner Dan Snyder is that Shanahan wanted to sit RGIII weeks ago, but the owner wouldn't let him. The coach finally got his way and backup Kirk Cousins responded with 381 yards and 3 TDs. Then again, he also had three turnovers and failed on the two-point conversion that could have won them the game. It's unclear what the future holds for Washington, but it's a mess there right now.
Jay Cutler returned for the Bears and it didn't take him long to start throwing INTs. Cutler was picked off twice in the first half, including one that was returned by Cleveland for a score. Cutler did recover to have a pretty decent day (265 yards, 3 TDs) to lead the Bears to a win, but it just goes to show the story of Cutler's career. You have to take the bad with the good and hope it leads to victory more often than not.

Meanwhile, Josh McCown takes a seat on the bench, despite leading the league in Total QBR (85.7).

After comlpeting the most dominant three game stretch a WR has ever had, Josh Gordon was nearly invisible for most of the game. He did manage a 43-yard TD catch with under a minute left to pull Cleveland within one score, but prior to that he managed only two catches for 23 yards. After Gordon crushed opposing fantasy teams the last few weeks, there were a lot of people that thought they lucked out this week by seeing him put up a dud when they had the unfortunate playoff match up against him. That late TD catch spoiled those dreams.
Robert Mathis set the Colt's single-season (16.5) and career (108) records for sacks when he forced a safety against Case Keenum and the Texans. The two points on the safety weren't quite enough to match the three Houston got on their lone field goal, but Andrew Luck and the offense did more than enough to make up for it in the blowout victory.
After their 12th straight loss, Houston is in the driver's seat for the top pick in the draft. Not quite as thrilling as being in the driver's seat for a trip to the Super Bowl, which was the expectation they had entering the season. But it's a nice consolation after a dismal season.
You wouldn't really expect much out of a Vikings offense that was missing Adrian Peterson due to a foot injury. So of course they posted their highest scoring game of the season this week with 48 points in a win over the Eagles. Third string RB Matt Asiata wont' be competing with AP for any rushing records, as he managed only 51 yards on a whopping 30 carries, but he did get 3 TDs.
How bad was the Eagles defense? They allowed 382 yards and a pair of TDs (plus a rushing TD!) to Matt Cassel. Greg Jennings even managed to turn back the clock for a season best 11 catch, 163 yard, 1 TD performance.
The loss was the first the Eagles have suffered in a game that Nick Foles played the entire game. Not that the loss can be pinned on Foles (career high 428 yards, 3 TDs). He more than held up his end, mostly be throwing deep passes to DeSean Jackson (10 catches, 195 yards, 1 TD).
Not that Seattle was too worried about facing the Giants, but Eli Manning made things easy on them by throwing 5 INTs. The defense held Manning and the Giants to only 181 total yards.
Marshawn Lynch had a quiet day running the ball with only 47 yards, but he did find the end zone and was also the team's leading receiver with 73 yards on six catches.
Michael Crabtree caught his first TD catch of the season to open the scoring in the first quarter and the 49ers didn't look back.
Frank Gore (86 yards) topped the 1,000 yard mark for the 7th season in his career and was key to chewing up the clock on a 4th quarter drive that took over ten minutes. The drive, which followed a Tampa TD that had pulled the Bucs within one score, ended in a field goal to give the Niners their two possession lead back. Tampa then fumbled the ensuing kick-off on a botched reverse, which Kendall Hunter recovered for another Niners score that put the game away.
Jacksonville's unlikely three game win streak finally came to an end at the hands of a Buffalo Bills team that had lost 5 of it's last 6 games coming into the week. EJ Manuel rebounded from the worst game of his young career to one of his best (193 yards, 2 TDs, 37 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD).
The Jaguars were in position to tie things up late in the game when they reached first and goal from the 1 yard line, but a goal line carry from Jordan Todman was stuffed for a loss. Chad Henne then tossed three off target passes, the last of which was picked off in the end zone. On the incomplete pass that came before the turnover, Henne claimed he threw toward Mike Brown because he saw him being held and hoped throwing to him would draw attention to the penalty, but no flag was thrown to bail them out.
Jamaal Charles only had 20 rushing yards? Sure he had a TD, but he must have had a quiet day.

Wait, nevermind. Charles also added 195 yards and 4 more TDs! The four receiving TDs were the most ever in a game by a running back. Charles also became only the fourth player to ever have 5 TDs and 200+ yards from scrimmage in a game. Oakland struggled to contain screen passes, allowing Charles to rack up 172 of his 195 receiving yards after the catch.
Alex Smith (287 yards, 5 TDs) looked good in the box score, but it mostly came from Charles making him look good. Smith's 5 TD passes combined to travel only 14 yards down field, but he benefited greatly from yards after the catch. Doesn't matter much to him though. What matters is that Kansas City clinched a playoff spot. Their 11th win of the season ties a league record for most wins following a season with two or fewer wins and there are still two games left!
Santonio Holmes opened his big mouth this week, calling Carolina's secondary their "weak link." So Panthers defensive back Captain Munnerlyn responded with a pick-six to put the game away in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Holmes was one of many weak links for the Jets with only 2 catches for 14 yards. If we had to find a weak link for the Jets, can we just call it their offense in general?
Matt Flynn (299 yards, 4 TDs) led the Packers to their second straight win to help keep the team afloat while they wait to see if Aaron Rodgers can make it back on the field this season. A frustrated Rodgers feels ready to play now, but doctors still have not cleared him.
I've tried to defend Tony Romo in recent weeks by pointing out his track record for game winning drives over the past few seasons. This week it was his critics turn to fire back after an epic second half collapse by the Cowboys that saw them blow a 23 point lead. A collapse highlighted by INTs by Romo on the Cowboys final two drives of the game. Romo now has the most INTs (7) in the 4th quarter or OT when his team is tied or ahead by one possession since 2006. Fueling the criticism is that there was no reason for Romo to be forcing throws like the one that led to the first of those two turnovers. Dallas led at the time with about two and a half minutes left and the Packers had only one time out left. Why were the Cowboys throwing at all on 2nd and 6? DeMarco Murray was averaging 7.4 yards per carry in the game, yet touched the ball only 3 times in the 4th quarter.

It was later revealed by coach Jason Garrett that the play call had been for a run, but Romo switched the call after seeing the defense crowd the line and open single coverage on the outside. While Garrett essentially threw his QB under the bus to push the blame away from himself, isn't it up to the coach to give his players the freedom to change the play? If Romo has a track record of 4th quarter meltdowns, why are they even calling plays that give Romo an option to switch to a pass? Romo and Garrett both deserve their fair share of blame on that one.

While Romo will get trashed for his late game performance, the Cowboys league worst defense (427.3 yards allowed per game) should get just as much credit for the loss after giving up TDs on all five Green Bay possessions in the second half.
The Arizona Cardinals somehow blew a 17 point lead with just over 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but did go on to win the game in overtime. After Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Michael Preston for a 10 yard score, the Titans defense forced a three and out to get the ball back. A false start penalty on 3rd and 4 stalled the drive, as Arizona ended up getting 5 yards on the play, which would have been enough to extend the drive if it weren't for the penalty. Tennessee would end up with a field goal on the next drive to make it a one score game. That left them needing an on-side kick, which they recovered with under a minute left. Five plays later, Fitzpatrick hit Preston again for the tying TD.
As heroic as that combination was late in the 4th quarter, it was a Fitzpatrick pass intended for Preston that ended up getting intercepted on the opening drive of OT, giving Arizona the ball in Titans territory, where they needed only a FG to win. It may have been an ugly win, but at 9-5, the Cardinals find themselves only a game back in the wild card race.
The Saints buried themselves early thanks to two INTs from Drew Brees on their first two possessions. The first one actually came on the first pass attempt of the day for Brees. A couple of garbage time TDs in the 4th quarter made the score somewhat respectable in a game dominated by St. Louis. The loss cost the Saints their chance to clinch a playoff spot this week and dropped them into a tie with Carolina in the NFC South. Next week's match up against the Panthers could very well decide the division.
Zac Stacy came up big for the Rams with 133 rushing yards, which included a 40-yard TD run. St. Louis can do little more than play the role of spoiler at this point, but given that they own Washington's 1st-round draft pick and their loss put them in position for the #2 overall pick, it was a very successful week for the Rams.
The Bengals failed to capitalize on the opportunity to move up to a top 2 seed in the AFC by falling in Pittsburgh Sunday Night. The Steelers opened the game with a 24-0 run, so by the time the Bengals started to join in on the scoring party, it was too late.
Antonio Brown was a big part of that early lead. He caught a 12-yard TD pass in the first

quarter and followed that with a 67-yard punt return for another score. Brown is third in the league in receiving (1,307 yards), but can also do some damage on special teams.
Justin Tucker nailed a career long 61-yard field goal in the final minute of the game to give Baltimore the win. The Ravens kicker accounted for all 18 of the team's points with his six field goals and became only the 4th kicker in history to hit a 60+ yard field goal to put his team ahead in the final minute of the 4th quarter.
The Lions were plagued by mistakes all game. Matthew Stafford threw 3 INTs, including one on the teams final drive that deprived Detroit of their chance to get in field goal range themselves. With only just over 30 seconds left, it would have been a long shot anyway, but with all their time outs remaining, they still had a chance. Detroit also suffered from several dropped passes, including several from Calvin Johnson, who already has a career high 9 drops this season. One of his drops came on a failed two point conversion late in the 4th quarter. Had he made the catch, Tuckers kick would have only tied the game rather than give Baltimore the win. The Lions have 44 drops as a team this season, which is by far the most in the league. Stafford has a tendency to throw with an odd side arm technique on some of his short throws, which seemed to be the cause of a few of those drops and at least one INT in this game.
One week after setting a record for the most TDs scored league wide in a single day, the league set a new record with 763 points scored on Sunday.

Things I Noticed: Week 14

2013-12-10T13:25:00.001-05:00

Winter is coming. No wait, that's a line from Game of Thrones. In the NFL, winter is already here! At least four games this week were impacted by snow, while a couple others endured freezing temperatures. While snow games can be fun to watch, they don't seem to be a lot of fun to play in. Weather can also be responsible for some unpredictable results and some really fluky games. Keep that in mind, with this year's Super Bowl being played in New Jersey. The NFL is gambling that they can get away with holding the biggest game of the year in the large market NY area without it being impacted by severe weather conditions. If a snowstorm wrecks havoc over the Super Bowl the way it did several games this week, it could prove to be a major mistake for the league.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

By the end of Thursday nights game, the Jacksonville Jaguars found themselves on an AFC best 3 game win streak. Wait, what?? Yes, it's true. Sure, they've only won four all season, but they are on a roll right now. Technically they are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. As Lloyd Christmas would say, so you're saying there's a chance!
A team without a chance on the other hand is the two win Texans, who somehow went from Super

Bowl contender to arguably the worst team in the league over the course of the season. Houston's season has been a train wreck ever since Matt Schuab forgot how to throw to his own teammates, Arian Foster went down with a season ending injury and Gary Kubiak's coaching... well wait, that won't be a problem anymore. After 11 straight losses, the Texans fired Kubiak. The #1 pick in the draft and a new coaching staff next season may be all the Texans need to get back in the mix by next season.
The Patriots survived thanks to a thrilling comeback that required two TDs in the final minute of the game. After Tom Brady connected with Julian Edelman to make it a one score game, New England successfully converted an on-side kick to get the ball back. The ball may not have even made it the required 10-yards on the kick, but a Browns player was the first to touch it, allowing the Patriots to pounce on it. A personal foul penalty called against Cleveland on Edelman's TD catch gave the Patriots an extra 15 yards on the kick-off, so after the recovery the Pats needed to drive only 40 yards to the end zone for the game winning score.

The Pats were also aided by a questionable pass interference call in the end zone that gave them a first and goal from the 1-yard line. The penalty was a bit ticky tacky (see, I can point it out even when it goes in favor of my team!), but there was contact on the play. Defensive back Leon McFadden seemed to give receiver Josh Boyce a little push from behind, so perhaps the extension of his arms during contact is what drew the referee's attention. One play later, Danny Amendola scored on a 1-yard catch to put New England ahead.

Even after that dramatic comeback, the Patriots were still left holding their breath after giving Cleveland the ball back with 31 seconds left. Jason Campbell completed three passes that quickly put the Browns in Patriots territory. After completing a 13 yard pass down the middle of the field to Jordan Cameron, Campbell hurried the offense to the line in time to spike the ball with 1 second left. That set up Cleveland with a chance to win the game on a 58-yard field goal. The kick was on line, but fell a few yards short. Only a team from Cleveland could suffer the heartbreak of giving up a miracle comeback in the final minute, only to see their own improbable comeback fall just short.
Despite the victory, the Patriots could not have been in high spirits after the game. First of all, because it never should have taken such a dramatic comeback to beat the Browns, but mostly because the victory came at a heavy cost. Rob Gronkowski took a vicious hit to the knee after a 21-yard catch and collapsed to the ground in agonizing pain. We would later find out that Gronk tore both his ACL and MCL on the play, ending his season and New England's Super Bowl hopes. They'll still win the division and make the playoffs, but it's hard to imagine them getting very far given what we saw from this offense the first half of the season without Gronkowski.

New England averaged 32 points per game with Gronk on the field, but that average was only 20.8 earlier this season when the team was without their star tight end. There is a noticeable difference in Brady's numbers as well. With Gronk on the field, Brady has completed 64.4% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA and 71.1 Total QBR. In the games without Gronk, Brady's numbers drop to 58% completions, 6.5 YPA and 55.0 Total QBR.

Josh Gordon was finally limited this week. By that of course I mean he was limited to less than 200 receiving yards for the first time in three weeks. He still managed 7 catches for 151 yards, including an 80-yard TD catch. I'm not saying he's the best receiver in football (that's clearly still Calvin Johnson), but Gordon is in the middle of one of the best stretches we've ever seen by a receiver. Not just because he's put up 649 receiving yards in his last three games, but because he's doing this with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden as his quarterbacks! Pretty sure Jerry Rice never had that problem.
A heavy blizzard in Philadelphia made for some impossible playing conditions in the first half of the Eagles-Lions game, which explains some of the sloppy play. Any deep pass attempt fluttered in the wind and kicking was out of the question. Neither team bothered to attempt a field goal. After touchdowns, both sides found the odds of going for two better than kicking an extra point attempt. Detroit tried kicking one extra point and the kick ended up getting blocked. The weather did let up slightly in the second half, but it was still ugly out there.
Reggie Bush was expected to be active, but slipped in the snow during pre-game warm ups and re-injured himself. His unexpected absence ruined countless fantasy teams, while giving a boost to anyone that bet on Joique Bell (69 rushing yards, 58 receiving yards, 1 TD). Bell also lost two fumbles, but we can forgive players for having trouble holding on to the ball in this game.
Apparently the only thing that can stop Nick Foles is Mother Nature. The snowstorm can at least be partially blamed for his sub par performance. Foles throws his first INT of the season, ending his streak at 19 TDs without a pick, which falls one short of Peyton Manning's record streak to start a season (which Manning set earlier this year).
LeSean McCoy set a franchise record for rushing yards (217) and added a pair of TDs to ensure the

Eagles would extend their winning streak to five games. You would think that someone like Shady McCoy, who relies so much on speed and making quick cuts, would struggle to navigate a field that was covered with nearly a foot of snow. Apparently not!
Andy Dalton threw three TD passes and ran another in for a score himself as the Bengals trounced the Colts in a game that could prove vital for playoff seeding. Cincinnati is currently a game ahead of the Colts for the third seed in the AFC and now also owns the tie breaker between them. They are also only a game back of New England, who they also own a tie breaker over, so the #2 seed is within reach.
Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis was awarded a touchdown after review on a key fourth and goal run. The Law Firm tripped and fell, landing at least a yard short of the end zone, before sliding past the goal line. Originally he was ruled down short of the goal line, but officials reversed the decision by determining that he was not touched by a defender prior to going to the ground. So since he wasn't down by contact, he was allowed to be credited with the extra yard that he picked up after hitting the ground. Sure, nobody grabbed his foot to cause him to stumble. He probably just tripped over that white line on the field.
Andrew Luck (326 yards, 4 TDs) looked good on the stat sheet, but his defense couldn't keep his Colts in the game. Indianapolis managed to back into the playoffs anyway, becoming the first team to clinch their division thanks to the Titans losing later that afternoon. Figures that the worst of the AFC division winners is the first to officially clinch their division.
Green Bay overcame a double-digit halftime deficit to win for the first time since Aaron Rodgers broke his collar bone six weeks ago. The win keeps the Packers in the hunt and increases the odds that Rodgers may make it back on the field again this season. A loss could have put them far enough back in the race that there would be no reason to bring him back at all this year.
The Packers winning score was set up by a Matt Ryan fumble that was recovered by the Packers at Atlanta's 21-yard line early in the 4th quarter. It took only four plays to get in the end zone with a Matt Flynn pass to Andrew Quarless. When Atlanta had one last chance to get in field goal range for a winning kick, Ryan threw a game ending INT that spoiled their comeback attempt.
Geno Smith bounced back from a string of awful performances with one of the best performances of his young career (219 yards, 1 TD, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD). The Jets put up a season best 37 points to take down the Raiders and inch back closer to .500 for the season.
The Jets got some help from their special teams too, when Antonio Allen recovered a blocked punt in the end zone for a score.
Oakland started Matt McGloin at QB, but gave a cameo appearance to Terrell Pryor. No injury was reported for McGloin, as the Raiders instead explained they put Pryor in the game to help offset the lack of a running game for a team that was missing it's top three running backs and was forced to start fullback Marcel Reece in the backfield. McGloin would return after sitting out one series, so apparently the coaching staff didn't like how the experiment was going.
Ryan Tannehill had never played a game in the snow before, but you'd hardly know if from his performance in leading the Dolphins to a win (200 yards, 3 TDs - plus he scrambled for a career high 56 rushing yards).

Tannehill was 8 for 10 passing in the red zone, with 3 TDs. It's only the second time in the past five years that the Steelers defense has allowed 3 passing TDs in the red zone in one game.

The loss drops Pittsburgh to 5-8, which means they need to win out the rest of their schedule to avoid the first losing season of Ben Roethlisberger's career.
Bobby Rainey took a hand-off on the second play of the game and ran 80 yards for an early TD. The day didn't end up getting much better for Buffalo, as the Bucs cruised to an easy win. Tampa Bay has now won four of their last five games, after starting the season 0-8. If we could just toss out the entire first half of the season, the Bucs and Jaguars would be two of the league's best teams!
The Bills doomed themselves in the second quarter by turning the ball over three times in four possessions. Buffalo has now lost 5 of their last 6 games and have clinched their 9th straight losing season. While they are not technically eliminated from making the postseason yet, they have essentially locked up extending the league's longest playoff drought to 14 seasons.
Kansas City halted their 3 game skid with a dominating victory over Washington. Jamaal Charles

rushed for 151 yards and a TD, while also catching a pass for another score. What changed to get the Chiefs back on track? The schedule. Now that they were back to playing one of the league's doormat teams, they got back to looking like world beaters.
In anticipation that he will inevitably be fired after this season (if not sooner), Washington head coach Mike Shanahan revealed that he was close to quitting last season, due to ongoing conflict with team owner Dan Snyder, before a remarkable 7 game win streak saved their season and launched them into the postseason. Great, so when he gets handed a pink slip he can claim that he wanted out anyway.
After both teams offenses were relatively stagnant through three quarters on a snowy afternoon, the Vikings and Ravens set a record with 6 lead changes in a shoot out 4th quarter. A staggering five TDs were put on the scoreboard between the two teams in the final 2:05 of the game! That's 125 seconds to put up 35 points! Yup, that's a record too. The final lead change came with four seconds left, when Joe Flacco capped a 5-play, 40-yard drive with a TD pass to rookie Marlon Brown.
Baltimore thought they had put the game away with a 77-yard kick-off return from Jacoby Jones that put the Ravens ahead with 1:16 to play. There was no opposing coach stepping on the field to impede his path this time (sorry, Steelers fans. Had to). The game was far from over yet though, as Cordarrelle Patterson took a Matt Cassel pass 79-yards to answer that score. That left Flacco and the Ravens only 45 seconds for their game winning drive. Flacco didn't even need all of that. With the way this game went, the biggest surprise may have been that the Vikings couldn't find a way to score in the final four seconds.
According to Adrian Peterson's twitter page, unruly Ravens fans threw snow balls from the stands. Correction, not snow balls. ICE BALLS! That wasn't even the worst part of Peterson's day, as the reigning MVP missed most of the game after a foot injury in the second quarter knocked him out. Which explains why he had time to sit around observing the snow ball fight in the stands.
Who says Peyton Manning can't play in cold weather? Wait, I've said that before... several times. And there are plenty of examples to point out to support that theory, but this week wasn't one of them. Not after he lit up the Titans for 397 yards and 4 TDs. Manning now has 45 passing TDs this season. He needs only 5 more over this final three games to match Tom Brady's record from the 2007 season. Denver has already scored 515 points this season, easily putting them on pace to break the Patriots record for points scored in a season as well.
Matt Prater set an NFL record with a 64-yard FG to end the first half. Sure, it came in the thin air in

Denver, but the 18-degree temperatures had to have offset some of the advantage from kicking at high altitude, right?
Denver set a franchise record for first downs in a game with 39. Manning completed 39 passes to set another franchise record and his 59 attempts tied the most in franchise history.
The win clinched a playoff spot for the Broncos. It's Manning's 13th career playoff appearance, which sets a new record for a quarterback. He previously had been tied at 12 with Brett Favre. Tom Brady is on the verge of making the postseason for the 11th time in 13 seasons as a starter, making him the closest to catching Manning.
The loss for the Titans knocked them out of contention for the AFC South title and makes them a long shot for a postseason spot.
Arizona ended an 8 game losing streak against NFC West opponents by putting a beat down on the Rams. Carson Palmer was nearly flawless, completing 27 of 32 passes for 269 yards and a TD. He had a Total QBR of 96.0, bringing his season average up over 50.0 for the first time all season. At 50.4, Palmer can now officially be considered (barely) better than average!
Rookie receiver Tavon Austin continue to break off big plays, while the Rams continue to baffle us by refusing to find more ways to involve him on offense. This week he was given one carry, which he ran 56 yards to help put the Rams in position for their only TD of the game (a 1-yard score punched in by Zac Stacy). Austin caught one pass for a meager 9 yards, but was only targeted 3 times. Is there some rule that St. Louis can only use their best offensive weapon a certain number of times per game? Is it like one of those video games where you need to build up your momentum meter to a certain point before unleashing your special finishing move?
Eli Manning dropped to 0-3 in his career against Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers team he refused to play for. You may remember after the 2004 draft that Manning forced his way into a trade that landed him in New York instead of San Diego. Chargers fans certainly haven't forgotten and they make sure to let Eli hear about it anytime he visits.
Seattle still seems likely to capture the NFC West title, but the 49ers weren't about to let them clinch it in their house. San Francisco denied the Seahawks the chance to clinch for at least another week by pulling out a late victory. Frank Gore ripped off a 51-yard run to help set up the 49ers game winning FG with 26 seconds left.
Marshawn Lynch was able to find the end zone again for the third time in two games this season against the Niners, but aside from that he was mostly kept in check. He rushed for 72 yards, but only 22 of those came after halftime. The Niners still have not allowed an opposing running back to rush for over 100 yards against them (although they've had several close calls - including Lynch in their Week 2 match up).
During NBC's player introductions during the 1st quarter, Panthers DE Greg Hardy introduced himself

as Kraken from Hogwarts. Wait, I thought they only played Quidditch at that school, not football! Also, if he were a real wizard then he would have been able to make his defense stop Drew Brees from throwing TD passes.
The magic appears to have run out on Carolina's eight game win streak. Drew Brees (313 yards, 4 TDs) became only the 5th QB in history to surpass 50,000 career passing yards on his way to picking apart the Panthers.
New Orleans is the first team this season to score over 24 points against this Panthers defense, which leads the league with only 14.5 points allowed per game.
Long after all the fantasy owners that drafted him gave up on him by either trading him for 50 cents on the dollar or relegating him to their imaginary benches, Marques Colston finally came through with a big game (125 yards, 2 TDs). It's weeks like this that make people want to believe he's one of the top 20 receivers in the league. The problem is that Brees spreads the ball around so much that Colston often gets lost in the mix.
On a night where the Bears retired the number of legendary coach Mike Ditka, Josh McCown led Chicago to victory with 348 yards and 4 TDs. He also launched himself into the end zone for another score, which must have had Bears fans holding their breath as McCown was hit in a dangerous mid-air collision. Chilling weather conditions became a problem for many QBs this week, but facing the Cowboys league worst pass defense (298 passing yards allowed per game!) more than offset the cold.
The Bears will have a difficult decision to make once Jay Cutler is ruled healthy enough to play again, especially if Chicago ends up making the playoffs. It may be a small sample size, as McCown has only played 7 games (5 starts) this season, but he leads the league in Total QBR at 85.7. Cutler's Total QBR is 63.2 this season (still good for a respectable 10th place in the league). Cutler has enough of a track record that he deserves a shot at his starting job back when he's ready, as long as he can play in at least one game before the end of the regular season. Next year is a different story though. Cutler is in the last year of his current contract and will likely demand another deal that could make him very expensive. McCown will come much cheaper and has proved capable of running the team. The cap hit on Cutler's contract this year is $10.3 million, while McCown's is only $580K. McCown will also be a free agent after this season, but isn't likely to make anywhere near as much as Cutler. Then again, Cutler is four years younger and the 34 year old McCown is a career backup having an out of nowhere career season. The future of both QBs may come down to whether or not the Bears make the playoffs, who ends up getting to start in the postseason and how they perform when giving that opportunity.

Also, don't overlook the idea of another team making the decision easy by grossly overpaying McCown. This is a league where Matt Flynn once got a 3 years, $26 million deal based on one good game (in a meaningless Week 17 game no less).

Alshon Jefferey made another ridiculous circus catch for a 25-yard TD. Double covered and fading back in the corner of the end zone, Jefferey still managed to get his mitts on the ball and keep both feet in bounds.
Tony Romo is 12-17 in the month of December after the Cowboys got blown out in the Windy City. It wasn't all Romo's fault, as he did throw 3 TD passes and didn't turn the ball over. But he also completed barely half of his pass attempts (11 for 20) and the Cowboys were only 5 of 10 converting third downs. Really it was the defense that blew it though. Chicago put points on the board in all 8 of their possessions in the game, excluding the final kneel down when the Bears got the ball back for the final six seconds of the game. The Dallas defense forced zero turnovers or punts the entire game and only recorded one sack. Romo may not have been flawless, but it would have taken a near perfect effort just to keep up with Chicago in this game, so don't put the blame on him.
Chicago's league worst rush defense gave up 100+ yards to an opposing running back for a record sixth straight game. DeMarco Murray piled up 146 yards against them, which makes you wonder why Dallas didn't hand them the ball more than 18 times. He's averaging 8.1 yards per carry! Regardless of the score, you have to keep him more involved.
NFL RedZone reported that 85 TDs were scored league wide during the Sunday afternoon games, which is the most ever scored in the league on a single Sunday afternoon. The previous record had been 81. Counting the Sunday Night game, there were 90 TDs scored on Sunday, which is the most for a single day in league history.

Ellsbury trades Sox for Pinstripes

2013-12-04T18:00:00.002-05:00

It's been seven years since Johnny turned into Judas. Now another popular center fielder from Boston is changing in his Sox for pinstripes. Following in the footsteps of Johnny Damon, Jacoby Ellsbury is leaving to join the New York Yankees for a shiny new 7-year, $153 million contract. As you could imagine, this isn't going over well in Boston.

The reason that Red Sox Nation is up in arms over the news has less to do with Ellsbury leaving Boston than it is about him joining the Yankees. Jumping ship to the Evil Empire, the team's most hated rival, will never go over well around here. Especially when the perception (fairly or not) is that he did it out of greed.

Yet that's hardly fair to Ellsbury. Having been burned in the not so distant past by contracts like the one they gave Carl Crawford, the Red Sox were understandably hesitant to dish out another massive long term contract. The philosophy of Ben Cherington and the front office has shifted the past couple years toward a more conservative approach. They are still willing to spend money, but less willing to commit in terms of years on the contract. The Red Sox were already stretching this philosophy by offering Ellsbury a reported 6-year, $120 million deal. When New York offered a 7th year (with an option for an 8th), that stretched beyond Boston's comfort zone. Given how rarely these expensive long term deals work out, it's hard to blame them.

Ellsbury is coming off a season where he hit .298/.355/.426, while providing excellent defense in center field and production on the base paths (MLB best 52 steals). His five-tool talent added up to a value of 5.8 WAR, which made him a borderline MVP candidate. In 2011 Ellsbury had a career year where he produced an 8.1 WAR, which should have won him the MVP award (Justin Verlander stole it to become the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens to win the award). So it's clear that Ellsbury is capable of putting up the type of production that would make him worth nearly $22 million per year. Considering the going rate on the free agent market in recent years has been approximately $6 million per win above replacement, if Ellsbury performs similar to how he did last season, he may even be considered a relative bargain.

The problem is that committing seven years at that price is an enormous risk. That's generally the case with any player, but Ellsbury comes with more concern than the average star player due to his injury history. Ellsbury has missed a lot of time over the past four seasons, which include two injury plagued years where he played a combined 92 games in 2010 and 2012. Even last season, in a relatively healthy year, he still missed 28 games. While it may not be fair to call him injury prone, the risk can't be ignored.

Also factor in that Ellsbury will be 30 years old this season. While he's still in his prime now, he'll likely be long past it by age 37 when his contract runs out. Ellsbury is one of the premiere lead-off hitters in the game, thanks to his blazing speed and above average contact rate. There are some speed players that were able to maintain similar production in their mid-30's, compared to how they performed in their late 20's (Rickey Henderson and Ichiro come to mind), but they seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Ellsbury is fast enough now that even when he loses a step or two he'll still be fast enough to be an above average center fielder and provide positive value on the base paths. On the other hand, as he ages he'll find it harder to beat out some of those infield singles and his bat speed could decline, leading to an increase in strikeouts, which means his batting average could take a hit. Since he doesn't walk very often, his career .350 OBP (which is good, but nothing special for a lead-off hitter) is likely to decline.

While it's not all that surprising that Boston was willing to let Ellsbury walk away after his asking price exceeded what they were willing to pay, it is somewhat surprising that it was the Yankees that were ready to pounce. Perhaps we shouldn't ever be surprised when the Yankees come after an elite free agent with bundles of cash, but this is also a team that was adamant about dipping below the $189 million luxury tax line this season in order to avoid the costly repeater penalties. Spending a combined $238 million on Brian McCann and Ellsbury (nearly $39 million per season between them) doesn't seem to fall in line with that goal. They also foolishly gave Derek Jeter a new $12 million deal after he opted out of the last year of his previous contract (a $9.5 million option). Obviously keeping their captain was important to the franchise, but no other team was going to come anywhere near paying that much to a 39 year old SS that missed almost all of last season with a recurring injury.

Yes, the Yankees were able to free up over $56 million this off-season with departing free agents coming off the books, plus the retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, but they've already added most of that salary back by adding two players and still have a lot of holes to fill. Right now they have approximately $139 million committed to their payroll, but that's without factoring in salaries for their eight arbitration eligible players. If all of them are to be retained, that could easily push the payroll past $160 million, while only accounting for 18 players of a 25 man roster. Since their farm system isn't exactly flush with major league ready talent, most of those roster spots will need to be filled via free agency.

Having that much salary committed already would make it essentially impossible for the Yankees to re-sign Robinson Cano at anywhere near the amount he's reportedly looking for if they are serious about staying under the luxury tax. So far New York is balking at the notion of giving him a $200 million contract and it's doubtful that any team would go that far to sign him, but there's no chance he stays with the Yankees for anything less than what Ellsbury got. In reality, Cano will likely get an even larger deal. Adding another $20+ million per year contract to their payroll would already have them approaching the tax line, with half a dozen roster spots still to fill.

The real wild card in this situation is of course A-Rod. The Yankees third baseman has been hit with a 211-game suspension, which would wipe out his 2014 season and his $25 million salary (although his $1 million signing bonus would presumably still count against their payroll). The problem is, Rodriguez is appealing the suspension. While it's unlikely to be overturned, there is a real chance this unprecedented suspension will at least be reduced. Until the Yankees can be assured that A-Rod is suspended for the whole season and none of his salary will count toward the luxury tax line, they'll be playing a dangerous game in assuming they have that extra cash to play with. Unfortunately, it could be some time before they find out. Even if his salary is wiped out this year, he's under contract until 2018. Perhaps it would help them dip below the tax this season, but signing another massive deal with Cano still creates a long term issue. Pushing today's problems to tomorrow has to catch up to them eventually.

If the Ellsbury deal signals the end of Cano's tenure in New York, have the Yankees really improved? As great a player as Ellsbury is, Cano has been the more valuable player - not only last season, but over the past several years. While Ellsbury finished 15th in MVP voting last season, Cano finished 5th, with a 7.6 WAR. Cano has finished in the top 6 for MVP voting in each of the past four seasons and had a higher WAR in two of those seasons than Ellsbury had in his best year.

Also factor in who Ellsbury is replacing. While he's a clear upgrade over Curtis Granderson, it's not as if the Yankees incumbent center fielder was any slouch. He struggled with injuries in a down year last season, but prior to that he averaged a 4.3 WAR in three seasons with the Yankees. The 32 year old Granderson is a batting average risk that strikes out a lot more than Ellsbury, but also provides more power. That's notable for a Yankees team that finished an uncharacteristic 22nd in Home Runs last season. Moving to Yankee Stadium, with it's friendly left field porch, should improve Ellsbury's power numbers, but we shouldn't expect that to be enough for him to regain the power stroke he showed in 2011. Let alone blast the 40+ homers that Granderson did in his last two healthy seasons.

It's not as if the Yankees had a huge void to fill in the outfield either. Their outfield already consists of Brett Gardner, Ichiro and Alfonso Soriano. Not to mention the corpse of Vernon Wells that still lurks on their bench. Ellsbury is clearly better than all of them, but each of those other top three are deserving of a starting spot. They also each carry more value than whoever they are likely to get to play second base if Cano leaves. So wouldn't they have been better off keeping last year's outfield intact and using that money toward re-signing Cano? Signing Ellsbury smells like a Plan B, indicating they no longer feel confident that Cano will be back.

The Yankees are coming off a season where they missed the postseason for only the second time in the Jeter-era. The last time that happened was 2008, which prompted the Yankees to go on a spending spree that netted CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeria and A.J. Burnett. Capturing the three biggest names on the free agent market led to a World Series title that year. While the Yankees may once again be outspending everyone else this winter, don't expect anything close to the same results this time. That trio joined an already strong 89 win team. Ellsbury and McCann join a team that is breaking down. It remains to be seen if those two can make up for the production lost by Cano and Granderson and that's without factoring in other free agents they may lose. They also potentially still have major holes at 2B, 3B and in the starting rotation and don't have a lot of room left in the budget to fill them. For all the money the Yankees have spent this off-season, the results won't necessarily make for an improved team.

As for the Red Sox, they should be just fine. While losing Ellsbury to a division rival still stings, they have a capable replacement in Jackie Bradley Jr. While he's not yet ready to take on the All-Star caliber role that Ellsbury leaves behind, he's a plus defender with above average speed that projects to become a solid hitter. His ceiling may not be as high as Ellsbury's once was, but Ellsbury's long term future likely isn't as bright as the best years that are already behind him. Short term, they should be able to make up much of Ellsbury's offensive production with the combination of Bradley Jr. and a full season of Xander Bogaerts, who should take over the starting SS spot. If Will Middlebrooks can rebound to hit like he did in the second half of last season, after returning from a mid-season demotion, the offense shouldn't lose much from the team that led the majors in runs scored last year.

Don't rule out the Red Sox making a play for another outfielder, such as Carlos Beltran. For a player that can provide similar value, they'd be willing to pay a hefty price if it means committing less long term salary. They also have enough prospect depth to swing a trade for another bat if they need it. Or they could hang on to their top prospects and wait for their farm system to bring reinforcements in the near future. The team has options and by not committing long term salary to a veteran on the wrong side of 30, it allows them the flexibility to act on those options. Even if it's a slight step back in the short term, there's no question it's the right move in the long run.

Boston has been preparing for Ellsbury's departure for some time, so it's no surprise to see him go. The outrage coming from fans seems more directed at the fact that he defected to the Yankees (as well as some female fans that are sad to see a player leave that was unofficially considered the team's most handsome guy). In the end, Ellsbury did what most anyone would do in his situation by taking the best offer available. Boston did what was in their best interest by passing on matching a large long term deal that they've learned the hard way to avoid. As for the Yankees? They're just doing what they do best - overreacting to a down season by opening up the check books. Time will tell if the decision will come back to haunt them in the long run, as pretty much all of the other long term commitments on their roster have.

Things I Noticed: Week 13

2013-12-03T15:11:00.000-05:00

It's Thanksgiving weekend, a time for us to give thanks for all the meaningful things that are most important to us in our lives. Like football! Oh yeah, and family and friends and all that.

Thanksgiving Day featured three games to enjoy while stuffing your face with a turkey feast. Detroit and Dallas hosted their traditional games, plus we got a night game between the Ravens and Steelers. Bye weeks are over now, but having three Thursday games helped break up the week a bit.

Entering the week, only the Atlanta Falcons were mathematically eliminated from the postseason. They'll be joined by others this weekend.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

The Lions were victorious on Thanksgiving Day for the first time in ten years, which is pretty remarkable when you consider they are one of only two teams that play on this day every year. Matthew Stafford (330 yards, 3 TDs) and Reggie Bush (182 total yards, 1 TD) both ended up with big days on the stat sheet, but both were responsible for keeping the Packers in the game early on. Bush lost a fumble on the Lions first drive of the game and Stafford lost one after getting sacked in the second quarter, which was returned for Green Bay's only TD of the game. But after that, Detroit shook off the slow start and dominated the game with 37 unanswered points.
Green Bay can't get Aaron Rodgers back soon enough. Matt Flynn struggled in completing only half of his 20 pass attempts for 139 yards and an INT. He was also sacked 7 times and lost a pair of fumbles. At least Rodgers could be back next week!
DeMarco Murray found the end zone three times to help lead the Cowboys over the Raiders. His

third score gave Dallas their first lead of the game early in the 4th quarter and they would later tack on a field goal with just under two minutes left to make it a two possession game.
Tony Romo (225 yards, 1 TD) played fairly well for a guy battling the flu. While he wasn't the one scoring the winning TD, he did lead the winning drive, adding to his league leading total of game winning drives in the 4th quarter or OT since 2011.
While the Cowboys certainly liked how the game ended, it wasn't the flu virus that was making Romo and his teammates nauseous early in the game. Filling in for the injured Dwayne Harris, rookie Terrance Williams took over as the Cowboys primary kick returner, only to fumble on his first attempt to open the game. Former Cowboy Mike Jenkins forced the fumble and Greg Jenkins, who was just signed off the practice squad for this game, scooped up the loose ball and returned it for a TD.
Dallas sits tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East with identical 7-5 records, but history says they won't finish on top. Tony Romo has a sparkling 24-5 career record in the month of November, but once the calendar flips to December his record is 12-20 the rest of the season. The Cowboys celebrate victory on Thanksgiving with a turkey feast, but the tryptophan induced coma last through Christmas.
Trailing by ten, Matt McGloin led the Raiders down to the Dallas 27 yard line with 35 seconds left. Needing two scores, the Raiders wisely kicked the field goal to make it a one possession game. Many teams would have tried for the TD in this situation, but doing so would have wasted more valuable time. Even if they had been able to get into the end zone and recover an on-side kick, they may not have had time to get into field goal range. Taking the three points there conserved time and set up the potential for a Hail Mary to tie if they had recovered the on-side kick. It's still a long shot, but it gave them the best chance at winning. I'm sure there were plenty of people that weren't thrilled that the field goal allowed Oakland to cover the 9.5 spread though.
Torrey Smith caught a deep ball from Joe Flacco for 54-yards on Baltimore's opening possession. After the play was initially ruled a TD, officials overturned the call and marked Smith down at the 1 yard line. No matter, as a couple plays later, Flacco went back to Smith for a much shorter TD pass.
Baltimore would hold on to win despite a wild ending that saw the Steelers score with about a minute remaining. Heath Miller thought he got in the end zone, but officials marked him down at the 1-yard line. On the next play Le'Veon Bell dove head first into the end zone, but the score was overruled when replays showed his helmet came off prior to him crossing the goal line. By rule, once a player's helmet comes off, the play is immediately stopped. Despite that no whistle was blown on the play, they still overturned it after review. The rule is understandable for safety issues (it was created a few years ago after Cowboys TE Jason Witten ran about 20 yards after getting his helmet knocked off), but it's designed to stop the play so a player doesn't get it in the head without the protection of their helmet. In this case, it happened so fast that officials were unable to stop the play in time, so the safety precaution didn't even come into play. Pittsburgh scored anyway when Ben Roethlisberger connected with Jericho Cotchery on a 4th and 1 play, but then Emmanuel Sanders dropped the two-point conversion that would have tied the game.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin created a bit of controversy when he took a step into the field of play during a kick return by Jacoby Jones, who was streaking down the sideline with nobody between him and the end zone. Tomlin jumped back out of the way as Jones sped by him, avoiding a collision, but Jones did seem to slow down slightly as he approached. That slight deceleration may have been enough for the Steelers to catch up to him and take him down before he was able to score. Tomlin said he was only trying to get a better view of the JumboTron and lost track of where he was in relation to the field of play, but league rules indicate coaches need to be completely behind the white line that marks out of bounds. The rule is rarely enforced, but Tomlin wasn't even close to behind it.
New England overcame another double-digit halftime deficit to rally for a win in Houston. After the offense struggled to get going at times in the first half, the Patriots made some adjustments that led to them scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions of the second half. Stephen Gostkowski sealed the comeback by nailing a pair of clutch 53-yard field goals in the 4th quarter.
The Patriots weren't interested in waiting for Stevan Ridley's next inevitable fumble to come. After losing the ball in each of the previous three games, Ridley was a healthy scratch this week. On the other hand, this game gave us a glimpse of life without their top RB and it wasn't pretty. Brandon Bolden got the start, but after gaining only two yards on three carries, he was quickly made an afterthought. LaGarrette Blount plodded his way to a modest 3.7 yards on his 12 carries, but lacks big play ability and has an even more troubling history of fumbles than Ridley does. Shane Vereen is currently the only bright spot in the Patriots backfield, but he's better as a receiver and isn't likely to hold up as a workhorse running back. The Pats need more from their running game and Ridley is their most talented option. Don't be surprised when he is given another shot at some point, but he has some work to do to earn the trust of the coaching staff back.
The Texans entered the game with some concerns about their own running game, but it's a wonder what facing this banged up Pats run defense can do to correct that. After rushing for only 1 yard last week, Ben Tate exploded for 102 yards and three TDs. Of course he did. Just when all his fantasy owners had given up on him and stuck him on their bench. How many people did he cost a shot at the playoffs in leagues where they started him last week and benched him this week? Come on, I can't be the only one!
Riverboat Ron gambled again, going for it on 4th and goal from the 1-yard line. Cam Newton dove

into the pile and stretched the ball over the goal line just before the end of the first half. The ball did get knocked out of his hands and recovered by Tampa Bay, but officials ruled he had already crossed the plane prior to the ball coming out. The score extended Carolina's lead to double-digits and it was smooth sailing from there.
Basking in the glow of his old college team's huge victory, Auburn alumni Cam Newton shined for his current team. His 263 passing yards and pair of TDs was fine, but he also added a team high 68 rushing yards, along with another score on the ground. His 56-yard scramble in the first quarter was the second longest run of his career and the longest scramble (his 72-yard TD run last year was a designed run).
How is it that a battle between two terrible teams with no playoff implications could turn out to be one of the more exciting games of the week? How can any game involving either the Browns or Jaguars, let alone both of them, be considered exciting? Well this one kind of was! Cecil Shorts beat Joe Haden for the winning TD with 40 seconds left to give Jacksonville their third win of the season. That's three wins in their last four games for a team that we once thought might never win a game.
The winning score answered a drive that put Cleveland ahead with under 4 minutes to play. If you can even call it a "drive." Actually, it was only one play - a 95-yard TD to Josh Gordon. With another spectacular performance (10 catches, 261 yards, 2 TDs), Gordon is the first player to record back-to-back games with 200+ receiving yards. Despite missing two games with a suspension to start the season, Gordon is second in the league in receiving yards.
That hideous Jaguars offense that struggled to reach a double-digit scoring average for most of the season is now up to a whopping 14.5 points per game! Ok, that's still last in the league, but it's a long ways from where they were before. The Jaguars are even getting a little creative on offense. One of the sweetest plays of the game was a fake sweep to the right with Maurice Jones-Drew, who fooled the defense by lobbing a TD pass to Marcedes Lewis.
"Automatic" Adam Vinatieri matched a career high with five field goals, including four from 40+ yards, which ties an NFL record. On a day that Andrew Luck (200 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) and the offense struggled, the veteran kicker was their to bail them out and extend their AFC South lead.
Trent Richardson has officially been replaced by Donald Brown as the Colts starter in the backfield. So maybe giving up a first round pick for him wasn't such a great plan after all. Brown didn't exactly flourish as the starter, but his late TD did help seal the win for the Colts. Meanwhile, Richardson gained 19 yards on 5 carries, which sadly enough is one of his best games this season on a yards per carry basis (3.8). Perhaps the key with him is to try to get more with less.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was a mess of turnovers (3 INTs, 1 lost fumble) for the sinking Titans. The loss cost the Titans a chance to get back to .500 and pull within a game of the Colts in the division. They still have a shot at the playoffs due to the pool of mediocrity fighting for the second Wild Card spot, but a trip to Denver isn't likely to help their chances to right the ship.
We nearly had an ending reminiscent of the Auburn-Alabama game when Chicago attempted a 66-yard field goal as time expired in regulation. The kick was short and caught in the end zone by Cordarrelle Patterson, who tried to run it back, but didn't make it nearly as far as the Auburn returner did. So the game went to overtime!
A personal foul penalty wiped out a game winning field goal for the Vikings in overtime. When forced to try again, Blair Walsh missed the 55-yard attempt. Chicago then drove down the field, but Robbie Gold missed his chance to hit a game winning kick. The 47-yard attempt came on second down! Why not run at least one more play to try to get closer? Kicking on third down makes some sense, to protect in the event of a bad snap. Settling for a long field goal when you could have Matt Forte (averaging 5.2 yards per carry in the game) help give your kicker an easier chance makes no sense. With time running down in overtime, the Vikings avoided their 2nd tie of the season by leaning on Adrian Peterson (30 rushing yards on the final drive) to get them back into range to set up Walsh with another chance to win and this time he came through.
You had to expect Adrian Peterson to have a big game against Chicago's league worst run defense and the man they call All Day didn't disappoint with 211 yards. The effort took him over 10,000 career rushing yards. Only Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown reached that milestone in fewer games than Peterson's 101 games.
Alshon Jeffery broke his own franchise receiving record, which he set earlier this season, with 249

yards and a pair of TDs. Jeffery is now 4th in the league in receiving yards. Is he surpassing Brandon Marshall as the top receiver on this Bears team or is he just benefiting from playing with Marshall, who commands most of the double teams?
Ryan Tannehill threw TD passes to Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace, which proved to be more than enough to beat the struggling Jets and keep Miami's playoff hopes alive.
Geno Smith was benched in the third quarter, halting another miserable performance. His Total QBR was 1.6 when he was mercifully lifted and is a staggeringly low 3.8 over his past five games, a streak where his Total QBR hasn't risen above 15.0 in any game. To put that in context, Smith's Total QBR for the season is 21.6, which is still easily the worst rating in the league. This is your QB of the future, New York! J-E-T-S!!!
Nick Foles threw 3 more TD passes to lead the Eagles over the Cardinals. Foles has 19 TD passes without an INT this season. He needs one more TD without throwing a pick to tie the record Peyton Manning set earlier this season. He also just set a franchise record for most pass attempts without an interception (233).
The Eagles (7-5) have won four straight games and are tied with the Cowboys for the division lead. They still haven't lost a game where Foles played the entire game.
The Cardinals defense has been very good this season, but they are the worst in the league at defending tight ends. That's why Zach Ertz and Brent Celek did the bulk of the damage, while receivers DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper were relatively quiet.
Larry Fitzgerald hauled in a catch on 3rd and 20, shrugged off two defenders and coasted the rest of the way for a 43-yard TD.
The Bills were playing at home, but you wouldn't know it from the crowd. Technically they weren't at home, as they were making their annual trip to play in Toronto. By doing so they forfeited a big advantage of forcing a warm weather team like Atlanta to play in the freezing conditions in Buffalo. The game was played in a dome, which would seem much more familiar to the Falcons. The Toronto fans also had a healthy mix of Falcons jerseys in the stands, taking away another home advantage. Perhaps these factors were just enough for the Falcons to pull out a narrow overtime victory.
Then again, the Bills didn't do themselves many favors on the field either. After Stevie Johnson caught a pass that would have put the Bills in field goal range for the winning kick in the final seconds of regulation, he fumbled the ball away to deprive them of their chance to avoid extending the game. Then on their opening possession in OT, Scott Chandler fumbled to set up Atlanta's winning drive.
Trailing by 10 in the 4th quarter, the Rams faked a punt from their own 22 yard line, which failed due to a mishandled snap and gave the 49ers great field position. One play later, Vernon Davis hurdled over the head of a defender, into the end zone for the score that essentially put the game away.

Davis may want to reconsider that move of hurdling opponents. This wasn't the only time he displayed his athleticism with that move in this game, but one of those times, Davis claims that Rams safety T.J. McDonald tackled him by grabbing his crotch. No, seriously. "It should be a league rule saying that a defender can not tackle a player by his penis," said Davis. Hey, no arguments here.

With Michael Crabtree making his debut this week, the Niners finally have all their top receiving options available at the same time. That may explain why Colin Kapernick threw for the most yards (275) he's had in a game since Week 1.
Denver took control of the AFC West with a win over the Chiefs, giving them a game up in the division, as well as the tie breaker by having beaten Kansas City in both match ups this season. Peyton Manning had another sensational game (403 yards, 5 TDs) and Eric Decker had a career day (8 catches, 174 yards, 4 TDs).

Decker is the second player this year to have 4 TD receptions in a game, joining Marvin Jones. Those two join Randy Moss and Terrell Owens as the only ones to accomplish this in the past decade.

After starting the season 9-0, the Chiefs hit their bye week and have been in a tailspin ever since, losing three straight. They are the first team ever to win their first 9 games, followed by losing their next three. Granted two of those came against Denver, but the decline was somewhat expected. The Chiefs are the most improved team this season, which wasn't must of a surprise considering the QB and coaching upgrade, along with improved health from their defense (until recently). Likewise, as good as they looked in the first half of the season, some decline was to be expected once the schedule got tougher. KC is still a good team, but they struggle against the elite teams. If they finish behind Denver in the division and settle for a wild card spot and a road playoff game, they could be an early out this postseason, even if they finish with the 2nd or 3rd best record in the conference.
Andy Dalton found A.J. Green for a 21-yard TD late in the 3rd quarter to pull ahead of the Chargers,

as the Bengals retained their two game lead in the AFC North race. The Bengals should be able to hang on to the division if they survive a date with the Colts next weekend, but if they stumble at all in the next few weeks it could potentially open the door for Baltimore to sneak back in the race leading up to their Week 17 match up.
Dalton joined Peyton Manning as the only QBs in league history to start their season with three straight 3,000 yard seasons.
Washington scored on their first possession of the game for the first time all season with a 1-yard TD from Alfred Morris. They entered the week as the only team not to have scored on their first possession at least once this season.
Eli Manning has a long history of coming through in the 4th quarter of one possession games. From 2004-2012, he completed 61% of his passes with 37 TDs, 19 INTs, and a 96.0 rating in those situations. Yet the script has been flipped for most of this season. In 2013, those numbers are 40% completion percentage, 1 TD, 5 INTs and a 25.7 rating (worst in the league). This week may have been a sign that he's reverting back to his normal self. After leading a TD drive that finished with an Andre Brown TD early in the 4th quarter, Manning completed 6 of 7 pass attempts for 56 yards in the 4th quarter. That included a field goal drive that put the Giants ahead by 7 late in the 4th quarter.
A controversial ending cost Washington a chance at a thrilling comeback. On second down, Pierre Garcon made a catch right near the first down marker. No call came for a measurement to confirm, but the chains were moved as if it were a first down. Washington ran their next play under the assumption it was 1st and 10, but after the deep pass was dropped for an incompletion, the officials called it 4th and 1. How could they have screwed that up?? The spot looked correct, as it did not appear Garcon got far enough to pick up the 1st down. But if they moved the chains to indicate a first down, it's up to the officials to correct that before letting the next play run. Washington likely doesn't throw deep if they need to pick up a yard on 3rd down.

The league would admit after the game that the officials made a mistake. They should have stopped the game at that point to eliminate any confusion over what down they were on. Mike Shanahan had asked for a measurement on the play, but an official told him it was unnecessary because they had already ruled it a first down. Clearly that wasn't the case, at least in the mind of referee Jeff Triplette.

So of the Giants 5 wins this season, 4 of them came against teams starting a backup QB and this latest one comes thanks to one of the biggest officiating mistakes of the year.
The 12th man was in full force at Century Link Field on Monday Night, as the crowd of 68,387 set a new world noise record by registering 137.6 Db. The Seahawks then rewarded their boisterous crowd with a dominating victory over the Saints. Russell Wilson put on an MVP caliber performance with 310 yards, 3 TDs and a team high 47 rushing yards.
For Wilson's third TD pass, he threw to TE Kellen Davis near the end zone. The ball deflected off his

hands, popped into the air and was nearly intercepted. Instead, the ball found itself in the hands of Derrick Coleman, who reached across the goal line for a TD. Everything seemed to go Seattle's way in this game, with this play being a primary example.
Despite a depleted secondary, the Seahawks defense was able to stymie Drew Brees and the Saints. Their high powered offense was held to 188 total yards and 7 points - both of which are the fewest the Saints have produced in a game since Sean Payton took over as head coach in 2006. Drew Brees was held to under 200 passing yards for the first time since the final game of the 2010 season. 147 yards is his lowest since the season finale of the 2006 season, which was a meaningless game where Brees played only the first two drives in the first quarter before resting up for the playoffs.
With the win, Seattle moves to 11-1 and becomes the first team to officially clinch a playoff spot. With a three game lead over San Francisco, they've got a strangle hold on the division title and beating New Orleans puts them in the drivers seat to lock up the top seed in the NFC. Given the home field advantage they get from the league's loudest crowd, getting the top seed could give them a clear path to the Super Bowl. The Saints seemed to be their top competitor in the NFC. If they couldn't come close to competing with the Seahawks in Seattle, who can?

Things I Noticed: Week 12

2013-11-26T13:45:00.000-05:00

The icy chill of winter is starting to emerge, as we saw several games impacted by freezing temperatures and heavy winds this week. These conditions aren't just a hassle for kickers, as we saw it impact the passing game when quarterbacks wanted to throw deep and in several cases we saw players struggle to hold on to the ball. It's enough to make you appreciate being able to get cozy in the warmth of your own home to watch the games on a great big flat screen. If you're daring enough to brave the weather conditions in any of the cold weather cities, make sure to bundle up!

Bye weeks: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle

Here are some things I noticed this week:

Last week the Saints were saved by a personal foul penalty that negated a Drew Brees fumble on a 4th quarter drive that ended with a game tying field goal. This week they benefited by the officials missing a clear face masking penalty when Matt Ryan was sacked on a drive where Atlanta had to settle for a field goal rather than a first and goal at the 10 yard line. The Saints would go on to win by four points, highlighting the importance of escaping with only giving up three on that earlier Falcons possession.
There was a slight game delay as the field crew had to fix the goal post after Jimmy Graham hung on it

as part of his TD celebration following a 44-yard score. Graham tied a record by tight ends with his 6th 100+ yard game of the season. Who's record did he tie? Tony Gonzalez, of course.
Down by four with about 2 and a half minutes left, the Falcons attempted... a field goal?? Granted it was 4th and 15, but doesn't that have to be four down territory anyway? To make matters worse, Matt Bryant missed the 52 yard FG. Atlanta wouldn't get the ball back again until there were 5 seconds left in the game, so even if they had made the field goal, it wouldn't have made a difference.
Despite the loss, the Falcons at least played up to their competition this week. After suffering four straight blow outs where they appeared to be toast on both sides of the ball, a match up with the division rival Saints gave them a bit of a spark. There were points where it seemed the defense couldn't make a tackle, an issue that's plagued them for weeks, yet in the end they did manage to hold New Orleans to a season low 17 points and keep Brees to under 300 yards for only the third time this season.
Facing 4th and 10 from his own 20-yard line, the game was on the line for Cam Newton and the Panthers, when he connected with Steve Smith for a 19-yard gain to extend the drive. Soon after, Newton found Greg Olson in the end zone for the winning score with 43 seconds left. Carolina has the longest win streak in the league going, with 7 straight, and are breathing down the necks of the division leading Saints.
For the second straight week, the Panthers benefited from a flag that was picked up in the end zone against Luke Kuechly. This time it was a helmet-to-helmet hit that would have given Miami a 1st down inside the 5 yard line, but the officials waved off the penalty. Miami settled for a FG on the drive... in a game they lost by 4 points.
Mike Wallace's 53-yard TD made Miami the first team to find the end zone in the 1st quarter against the Panthers defense all season. For Wallace, the high price free agent acquisition, it was only his 2nd TD of the season.
Joe Flacco hit Jacoby Jones with a 66-yard TD pass late in the third quarter, as the Ravens defeated the Jets. Before you get too excited, the score wasn't a game winner. The game had long been over by that point, so the TD was essentially meaningless. Take that away and Flacco really didn't have that great of a game. But against a miserable Jets offense, it was more than enough.
On the other side, Geno Smith had another terrible game, completing only 9 of 22 attempts for 127 yards and 2 INTs. Despite a rocky rookie season from their young QB, the Jets (5-6) somehow remain in the playoff picture. They are one of six teams with the same record, but four of those teams hold tie-breaker advantages over New York.
Just when you thought the Texans season couldn't get any lower... they lose at home to the Jaguars! Seriously, I get that Matt Schaub was horrible early this season and had and shred of confidence left in him shattered by his last pick-six, but is he really "get embarrassed by Jacksonville" bad? Couldn't he have salvaged something from this mess when Case Keenum clearly wasn't getting it done? How do you fail to get the ball to Andre Johnson more than twice against what had been one of the league's worst defenses (although after this game, the Jags defense is quickly rising up the ranks from cringe worthy to just plain awful)?
Keenum wasn't the only Texan having a rough day. We knew he was no Arian Foster, but we expected a lot more than 1 yard on 7 carries from Ben Tate! This is a guy that in his short career (and relatively small sample size) has ranked among the league leaders in yards per carry and yards gained after contact. Granted he's dealing with a trio of injuries (ribs, ankle, toe), but come on! It's Jacksonville! Dennis Johnson was given a shot to take over and ripped of 74 yards on 13 carries, so it's not as if the Jaguars defense suddenly learned how to stop people. Tate was just terrible.
A skirmish broke out in the Bears-Rams game, which included two brothers going against each other. Rams defensive end Chris Long raced from the sideline toward the pile and made a v-line toward brother Kyle Long, pulling him off a teammate to try to defuse the situation. Just as he overpowered his brother there, his Rams team overpowered the Bears in a crushing victory.
The Rams got off to an early start when rookie Tavon Austin took a hand off and sprinted 65-yards for a score. Austin is the first player this season with 3 TDs of at least 65 yards (including kick returns).
The Bears dug themselves into a hole that they could't climb out of, thanks in part to 10 penalties in the game. One of the more damaging calls against them was a holding penalty that negated a Devin Hester punt return for a score.
Philip Rivers found Seyi Ajirotutu for his third TD pass of the game with 24 seconds left to cap a stunning comeback win in Kansas City. It was only the third catch of the season for the 4th year receiver, yet Rivers still trusted him with the game on the line. The score answered an Alex Smith TD to Dwayne Bowe less than a minute earlier that had put the Chiefs on top.
The two teams alternated TDs in a third quarter that saw four lead changes. On one of those drives for Kansas City, the Chargers were called for pass interference on 3 out of 4 plays, the last of which came in the end zone to give the Chiefs the ball at the 1-yard line. Jamaal Charles punched in the short score to give Kansas City the lead.
After being the last of the league's undefeated teams, the Chiefs have now lost two straight games and have a re-match with the Broncos next week staring them in the face. Making matters worse, their two best pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, went down with injuries and may not be available for that game. The Chiefs have built enough of a lead that their playoff spot should still be secure, but their division title hopes could slip away if they can't beat Denver.
Pittsburgh inched closer to .500 and leaped over the Browns to get out of the NFC North basement with a win in Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger has never had a losing season in his career and seems determined not to let this be his first.
Despite being blanketed by Joe Haden for most of the game, Antonio Brown still managed a team high 6 catches for 92 yards. He beat Haden deep for a 41-yard TD catch to put the Steelers ahead in the second quarter. Haden recovered to try to rip the ball away from Brown. The ball did pop loose as Brown went to the ground, but he was able to pull it back in without letting it touch the ground.
Jason Campbell was knocked out of the game... twice! The second time was due to a head injury after getting sacked and stripped of the ball, which Pittsburgh returned inside the 10 yard line to set up a quick Steelers score. Seeing Brandon Weeden enter the game must be painful for Browns fans. Having to suffer through that twice in the same game is just cruel.
The lone bright spot for Cleveland was Josh Gordon, who reeled in 14 catches for a franchise record

237 yards and a score. Gordon is now 5th in the league in receiving yards, despite missing the first two games of the season with a suspension.
After losing their first 8 games, the Tampa Bay Bucs have improbably won three straight. The Mike Glennon era may have taken a while to get going, but the rookie has improved to 3-5 since taking over as the starter. He has 13 TDs against only 4 INTs and a passer rating of 91.6 that ranks 9th in the league. The more advanced Total QBR rating isn't quite as kind, seeing Glennon is a slightly below average QB (49.6), but considering Josh Freeman ranks as the worst in the league by that same metric, the upgrade to Glennon has been significant.
With under a minute to play, Matthew Stafford threw deep to Calvin Johnson, who got his hands on it inside the 5-yard line. Before he could turn toward the end zone looking for the winning score, he was hit and the ball popped out into the hands of Bucs defensive back Jonathan Banks for a game clinching INT. While the turnover was hardly Stafford's fault, it would go down as his 4th INT of the game, punctuating a sloppy effort for the Lions QB.
The Vikings and Packers treated us to the season's first tie. Maybe treat isn't the right word, considering this battle of terrible QBs was somewhat painful to watch. Scott Tolzien made a highlight scramble with a nifty spin move to score his first career rushing TD, but was ineffective overall and was benched for Matt Flynn. Unfortunately for the Packers, Flynn wasn't able to put together the type of randomly outstanding one game performance that could earn a guy like him a $26 million deal. He was better than Tolzien, but still not particularly good. At least Aaron Rodgers may be back soon. The Lions and Bears weren't able to pull away during his absence, so the returning Rodgers gives the Packers a chance to reclaim the division over the final month of the season.
In his first game back at Lambeau field as a visiting player, Greg Jennings was held to 2 catches for 29 yards and dropped a pass on third down late in the OT period that could have put the Vikings in Green Bay territory.
Under the new overtime rules implemented last year, the game can't end in overtime without each team getting a chance to have possession unless there is a TD or safety on the opening drive. This was the first time a game has ever ended in a tie with both teams having made a field goal in the OT period.

Last year the Texans and Jaguars both kicked field goals in OT, but the tie was broken when Houston scored a TD to win the game.

At the end of overtime, the Vikings called for a fair-catch on a punt return with 1 second left, setting up a Hail Mary from their own 34-yard line. Why not try a fair-catch kick? In this situation, Minnesota could have tried a 76-yard field goal without a pass rush bearing down on him. A kicker with a strong leg, like Blair Walsh, could conceivably kick that far. It would be like kicking it through the uprights on a kick-off. Kickers are able to launch kick-offs out of the back of the end zone all the time and Walsh's attempt would be from slightly closer than a typical kick-off. It's still a long shot of course (no pun intended), but isn't it more likely than trusting Christian Ponder with a Hail Mary?

Kendall Wright caught a TD pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick with 10 seconds left to clinch a comeback win over Oakland. The victory moves Tennessee to 5-6 on the season, which somehow is good enough for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Remember the days when a team could win 11 games and still miss the playoffs (like the 2008 Patriots)? Let's hope that last playoff spot doesn't actually end up going to a losing team.

And let's hope it's not the Titans, especially if the Patriots end up falling to the 4th seed. Not because the Pats couldn't beat them, of course they would. But not without Bernard Pollard taking someone out along the way. Who would be the next victim for this known Patriots killer? I don't want to find out. Avoid them at all costs!

The normally reliable Sebastian Janikowski missed two field goals that cost the Raiders as much as their late game defensive lapse did. The season has been a struggle, as Janikowski has hit a career worst 68.2% of his field goal attempts (he's at 80% for his career).
Last year, Bruce Arians won Coach of the Year for taking over the Colts while Chuck Pagano recovered from cancer treatment. Now as head coach of the Cardinals, Arians' new team trounced his old team in a 31 point blowout. If any opposing coach knows how to stop Andrew Luck, it's the guy that helped coach him last season as a rookie. His knowledge of one of the league's fastest rising QBs helped allow his defense contain Luck to one of the worst performances of his young career.
Larry Fitzgerald caught 5 passes for 52 yards, but two of them went for scores. It's the 2nd multi-TD

game of the season for Fitzgerald, who now has 8 TD catches this season, tied for 8th in the league.
Arizona quietly has won 4 straight games to pull even with San Francisco at 7-4. Neither is likely to catch Seattle in the division, but the Niners currently hold the 2nd Wild Card spot in the NFC. They win a tie-breaker over the Cardinals thanks to their head-to-head victory, but the two teams play again the final week of the season - a game that could decide a playoff spot!
Dan Bailey hit a 35-yard field goal as time expired to lift the Cowboys over the Giants. Of course if Bailey had missed, Tony Romo would probably get blamed. Somehow there is a misconception that Romo is terrible in late game situations, but he proved capable in the clutch this week. Since 2011, Romo's 11 game-winning drives in the 4th quarter or OT is the most of any QB in the league. Shocking, right?
Giants TE Brandon Myers made a diving catch to convert on fourth and short late in the third quarter, but nobody touched him while he was down! Two Cowboys defenders literally stood nearby looking at him on the ground, so Myers got back up and strolled into the end zone to cut the Dallas lead to a one possession game.
Despite the absence of Hakeem Nicks, Eli Manning only targeted top receiver Victor Cruz a season low four times in the game. On Cruz's first catch of the game he allowed Orlando Scandrick to rip the ball out of his arms for a fumble that the Cowboys returned for a score. No wonder Manning stopped looking his way.
It was a nightmare beginning for the Patriots, who fumbled the ball away on their first three possessions to aid the Broncos in opening a 24-0 lead by halftime. Denver had already put up 17 points before Peyton Manning even cracked double digit passing yards and the undermanned Patriots defense had no answers for Knowshon Moreno (career high 224 rushing yards). Everything that could have gone wrong, went terribly wrong. At one point in the first quarter, even the play clock stopped working at Gillette Stadium. Seriously, New England couldn't get anything right early on. I half expected one of the hot dog vendors to drop his tray or the power to go out. It was enough to discourage most teams and send them to the locker room hanging their heads. Not this Patriots team.
Tom Brady (344 yards, 3 TDs) led a spectacular comeback in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points to take a lead by the mid-way point of the 4th quarter. As sloppy as New England was taking care of the ball in the first half, the second half was Denver's turn to cough up the football. The icy cool weather clearly made it difficult for players on both sides to hold on to the ball - possibly because their hands were going numb from the chilling night air.
Manning had never lost a game that his team led by 22+ points. I his career, he was 50-0 in the regular season and 2-0 in the postseason protecting such lofty leads. So much for that. Manning did engineer a late 4th quarter TD drive to force overtime, but it would end up not being enough.
What? Did the Patriots really win the coin toss in overtime and elect to let Denver start with the ball?! A bold decision by Bill Belichick, who clearly valued having the wind on his side over starting with the ball, despite that Manning could have ended the game with a TD drive without giving the Patriots a chance to possess the ball. As it turned out, it didn't matter much, since each team ended up with multiple possessions in an OT period that became a punting war, but it's a decision that easily could have come back to haunt the Patriots and ruin a dramatic comeback.
The game looked to be headed toward a tie as the Patriots punted the ball away again late in the OT period, but the ball bounced in front of Wes Welker and deflected off Tony Carter, making it a live ball. New England recovered at the 13-yard line to set up the game winning FG. Welker was late giving his teammates the signal to stay clear of the ball and Carter had no chance to get out of the way. The costly hesitation, along with a third down drop on Denver's last drive, made for a return to New England that Welker would rather soon forget.
With fumbles in three straight games, we may be nearing the end of the Stevan Ridley era in New England. While he's still the team's best overall running back, he's becoming too much of a liability to be trusted in big games. After fumbling on the Patriots first drive of the game, Ridley spent the rest of the night planted on the bench. If he can't get his fumbling issues under control, he may soon find himself sitting in the unemployment line.

As much of a problem as New England had with it's running game, the run defense was even worse. After getting run over by Moreno, the Patriots are now giving up 139.7 yards per game on the the ground. Only Chicago is worse in that category. The good news is that the 4.5 years per carry they give up isn't quite as bad (yet still bad at 26th in the league) and the longest run they've given up all season went for 30 yards. Every team in the league (except San Francisco, who's longest run allowed is also 30 yards) has given up a longer run at some point this season. Silver lining! Of course, with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo out for the season, the run defense isn't likely to get much better anytime soon.

Tom Brady is 24-5 in his career in games where the game time temperature drops below freezing.

Manning is now 3-7 in cold weather games. Over the past 10 years, only Michael Vick has a worse winning percentage in cold weather games. If these teams meet again in January, regardless of if it's played in Denver or Foxboro, then guess what? It's not going to be warm out.
Colin Kaepernick tossed a trio of TD passes to lead the Niners over Washington on Monday night. Of course the scores went to Anquan Boldin (twice) and Vernon Davis, because those are the only two options Kaepernick throws to around the end zone.
Few passes into the end zone come as easily as the one to Davis. The 49ers lined up at the 1-yard line looking like they were going to power rush with Frank Gore. Davis slipped past the defense, which sold out on the run, apparently assuming Davis had just missed his block. Instead, Davis found himself wide open in the end zone for an easy lob. Sweet play for the Niners.
Robert Griffin III struggled again, completing only 17 of 27 pass attempts for 127 yards and a pick, while getting sacked four times. After shining as a rookie last year, Griffin is suffering through a sophomore slump. His early season woes could be blamed on his recovery from off-season knee surgery, but that concern should be behind him by now. The bigger concern is that NFL defenses have adjusted to the read-option and forcing young QBs like Kaepernick and Griffin to adjust. While Kaepernick hasn't played quite as well either, he hasn't declined to the extent that Griffin has. The other issue with Griffin is that he's not throwing the ball deep as well this year. Last year he led the league with 8.14 yards per pass attempt, but he currently ranks outside the top 15 this year (7.12). Many of his completions in this game came on quick outs and screens, which the 49ers were able to contain. There has even been talk that Griffin could be benched in favor of Kirk Cousins. As Jon Gruden discussed on the MNF broadcast, if Mike Shanahan loses the head coaching job after this season, who knows what a new coaching staff would do. If they can't fix whatever is wrong with him, he may find himself relegated to the bench. That's a sad reality for a young QB that showed so much potential out of the gate last year.
Atlanta and Houston were both division winners last year. Atlanta was the NFC's top seed and was minutes away from a trip to the Super Bowl. Both teams entered as strong contenders this season, but it is now looking conceivable that they will have the top two picks in next year's draft. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Peyton Manning is still running away with the MVP race, but is Nick Foles emerging as a dark horse candidate? He's only started 5 of the Eagles 11 games, which is likely enough to take him out of the running to begin with. However the Eagles are 4-1 since he took over as the starter and that one loss came in a game that he left early with a head injury. If you only count the weeks he played a full game, he's averaging 307 yards per game, which would tie him for 4th in the league (admittedly with a a much smaller sample size than anyone else). He's leading the league in passer rating (128.0) and yards per pass attempt (9.59) and is right behind Manning in Total QBR (78.2). It would take an enormous collapse from Manning for Foles to steal the award, but if he can keep this up and lead the Eagles to the NFC East crown, he has to at least be in the discussion.

Things I Noticed: Week 11

2013-11-19T15:14:00.002-05:00

The last of the unbeaten teams falling and a controversial Monday Night game led to an exciting and memorable week. Seattle became the first team to 10 wins, but are one of only four teams that have yet to have their bye week.

Bye weeks: Dallas, St. Louis

Here are some things I noticed this week:

While it didn't take another dramatic game winning drive for Andrew Luck this time, the Colts still had to dig themselves out of an early hole to beat the Titans. Tennessee led by 14 points after the first quarter before the Colts rallied from their slow start. Adam Vinatieri nailed a field goal as time expired in the first half to kick off a string of 20 unanswered points to put Indy ahead. The Colts will take a win regardless of when the points are scored, but these slow starts are a troubling sign for a team headed for the postseason. They are likely to run into stronger defenses in the playoffs that will make coming back from early deficits much more difficult.
Tight End Colby Fleener had a career day, with 8 catches for 107 yards to lead Colts receivers. With Reggie Wayne lost for the season, Luck will need more than just T.Y. Hilton to step up to fill the void, so it was good to see another receiving threat start to emerge.
The early hole was thanks to Chris Johnson, who scored twice in the first quarter. That doubled his

TD production, as he also scored twice two weeks ago, but has been shut out of the end zone in every other game this season. There aren't many staring RBs in the league with this frustrating kind of boom or bust potential.
Geno Smith played his way onto the bench with a miserable performance. The Jets rookie QB completed only 8 of 23 pass attempts for 103 yards while turning the ball over four times. Two of his INTs were returned by the Bills for scores the other way. His Total QBR was 0.7! Despite being benched late in the game, the QB change is unlikely to be permanent, but ugly outings like this must have Jets fans missing the Mark Sanchez era (ok, maybe not).
Buffalo's defense was so dominant that the offense wasn't required to do much, but EJ Manuel managed to chip in 245 yards and 2 TDs, despite missing a couple of his main receiving options (including Stevie Johnson).
Tornado warnings in the Chicago area delayed the Bears and Ravens game for nearly two hours mid-way through the first quarter (check out this video of the huge twister and the damage it ravaged on Illinois!). Baltimore led by 10 at the time of the delay and went on to lose, which clearly means that Roger Goodell conspired with Mother Nature to cause the delay in order to stall the Ravens momentum.
Or it could have been an ugly pick-six thrown by Joe Flacco that shifted the momentum in Chicago's favor. Josh McCown may not have been lighting it up while filling in for the injured Jay Cutler, but he was efficient and avoided turnovers, which proved to be the difference.
Of course the game with the long delay would end up going to overtime. When accounting for the weather delay, this has to be one of the longest games in league history!
Just when we had all given up on Ray Rice, he finally breaks out with a vintage performance (131 yards, 1 TD). It's the first 100+ yard game of the season for Rice, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the game. His season average is only 3.0 and his previous game high was a mediocre 3.4 per carry.
The Bengals defense has been hit hard with injuries to Geno Atkins and Leon Hall this season, but even without them they still managed to put up a dominant performance. The Cincinnati defense forced four turnovers, including a fumble that they returned for a score. On special teams the Bengals also blocked a punt that was returned for another score during a second quarter where they put up a franchise record 31 points.
Early on it looked like Cleveland's defense was the dominant one, after a pick-six from Joe Haden gave the Browns an early 13-0 lead in the first quarter, but their offense wouldn't cooperate to hold the lead. Not only could they not stop turning the ball over, but the drives that didn't end with a turnover mostly ended in punts. Jason Campbell did find Josh Gordon on a deep pass for a 74 yard score, but that's about all the Browns offense accomplished after the first quarter, so by that point the game was already out of reach.

Despite the overall terrible play of the rest of the team, Haden had an outstanding game. Not only did he come up with that pick-six, but he also limited A.J. Green to only 2 catches for 7 yards.

Nick Foles wasn't able to throw any more TD passes this week, but he did run one into the end zone himself to get the Eagles out to an early lead and LeSean McCoy would help put Washington away with a pair of 1-yard scores. The Eagles moved to 6-5, putting them at the top of the NFC East and giving the league hope that this pitiful division might actually end up with a team that has a winning record!
Robert Griffin III led a 4th quarter comeback attempt with two long TD passes (62 yards to Darrell Young and 41 yards to Aldrick Robinson), while adding the two-point conversion after each score. That put Washington within striking distance late in the game, down 8 and desperately needing to duplicate another score and and two-point conversion. Washington drove down to the Eagles 27 yard line with under a minute to play before RGIII threw an INT in the end zone to clinch the Eagles victory.
A losing record. Trade rumors. An offensive line that can't protect him. Ben Roethlisberger has had

enough and it was time to take thing into his own hands and carry the team on his back. He did just that, throwing for 367 yards and 4 TDs, including two of them in the final five minutes of the game, to stun the Lions.
Matched up against Megatron and the Lions, the Steelers countered by dressing like Bumble Bee to keep the Transformers theme going. Wow, those throwback uniforms are awful.
Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were each on pace to shatter single game yardage records in the first half, but the script was flipped after halftime. Stafford (362 yards, 2 TDs) failed to complete a pass in the 4th quarter as the Steelers staged a comeback against him. Calvin had a beastly 179 yards and 2 scores at intermission, but failed to reel in a single reception in the second half.
Those Tampa Bay Bucs are on a roll with two wins in a row! Ok, so it's their only two wins of the season, but if they can finish the season on a good note then it could go a long way towards saving Greg Schiano's job. After beating Atlanta they now find themselves tied in the NFC South basement, so at least there is a silver lining in site that they might not finish in last.
What is going on with the Bucs running game? Doug Martin entered the season with sky high expectations in his second year, but was a mild disappointment before suffering a season ending injury last month. Mike James became a pleasant surprise before going down with an injury of his own last week. So of course the next guy in line, Bobby Rainey, comes out of nowhere with the best performance of anyone from their backfield. Rainey delivered the most shocking line of the week with 163 yards and 2 TDs, while tacking on a short TD reception for good measure.

It figures that the highest scoring player of the week in fantasy leagues was a guy that almost nobody started.

Has it really come to this for Atlanta - Matt Ryan getting benched in the fourth quarter? Trailing by 28 points and having just thrown his second INT of the game, Ryan found himself riding the pine. You may not even have noticed, since he ended up coming back in after backup Dominique Davis limped off with an injury. By that time Davis had already led a TD drive and marched the offense down to the verge of the red zone. Ryan would finish off the drive with a TD pass to Roddy White to pull within two scores and make the final score a bit more respectable, but most of that comeback came without Ryan.
Carson Palmer put up a big performance (419 yards, 2 TDs) in the Cardinals victory. Now before

you get too excited, keep in mind that it came against Jacksonville's defense, which seemed incapable of making a tackle. Michael Floyd took a simple slant route on 3rd and 10 and broke three tackles on his way to a 91-yard TD. That's the longest TD reception in the league this season.
At least Jacksonville had a brief moment of feeling victorious by scoring on the opening drive to take an early lead. Chad Henne found Danny Noble for a 62-yard TD to give the Jaguars... wait for it... their first TD in a home game all season! Seriously, it took them four home games to finally find the end zone. Technically they scored a TD in a "home" game earlier this season, but that occurred in London. Just to prove it was no fluke, Maurice Jones-Drew added another score at the end of the first quarter. Two TDs for the Jagaurs in the same game at home? Someone stop these guys!

Ok, someone did stop these guys. The Arizona defense not only shut out Jacksonville in the second half, but held them to only 57 yards after halftime.

Wait a minute, could it be? Yes, that's Matt Schuab's music! Schaub is back! Case Keenum played poorly enough to allow Schaub to reclaim his job. At least for now. The competition remains open going forward. Schuab entered in the 4th quarter and led a pair of field goal drives when the team was in need of touchdowns, so it's not like he was overly convincing that he deserves his job back. The Texans crowd also greeted him like a heel rather than a returning hero, so that's probably not a good sign. They even had to switch to using silent counts at one point on offense because their home crowd was booing Schuab so much. While he didn't lead any TD drives, at least he didn't throw any TDs to the other team this time, so perhaps that's progress.
Who the heck is Matthew McGloin? He was the new Raiders QB, filling in for the injured Terrell Pryor. In leading a successful victory (197 yards, 3 TDs) it may even open the door for him to continue to start even after Pryor is healthy.
In the shadow of a harassment scandal that has shaken the team's locker room, the struggling Dolphins took a step toward getting back on track with a victory over the Chargers to get back to .500 on the season. Brent Grimes broke up a pass in the end zone to end Philip Rivers last shot at a comeback. It was a pivotal game in the Wild Card race, as the Dolphins (5-5) sit just outside the last playoff spot, while the Chargers (4-6) sink back toward the bottom of the AFC.
Ryan Mathews had his best game of the season with 127 yards, while averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. A large chunk of his production came on a 51 yard run to start a drive late in the third quarter that would eventually lead to a field goal. Mathews has been a model of inconsistency this season, rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games, while essentially disappearing for the majority of other games.
Garrett Hartley kicked three field goals on consecutive drives for the Saints, with the last coming as time expired to lift New Orleans over the 49ers. Hartley had missed four of his last six attempts over the prior three games, but came through in the clutch this week.
The second field goal, which tied the game late in the 4th quarter, came on a drive where Drew Brees lost a fumble on a vicious sack that drew a personal foul flag for a blow to the head of the quarterback. The penalty negated the turnover and gave the Saints a first down at the Niners 30 yard line. A few plays later we had a tie game.
As much as Colin Kaepernick would like to spread the ball around more, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin are proving to be his only reliable targets. Each of them caught a TD pass in the game and remain the only ones to catch a TD pass from Kaepernick all season. The impending return of his top receiver from last year should help, but it remains to be seen how effective Michael Crabtree will be coming off an Achilles injury or how long it will take him to get up to speed once he comes back. It's possible he could be activated as early as next week, which would give him over a month's worth of games to ramp up before the playoffs begin.
Don't look now, but the Giants have won four in a row to leap out of the basement in the NFC East and remain one game back in the loss column for the division lead. Of course they haven't exactly had the most daunting schedule over this stretch. They beat a couple of losing teams in the Vikings and Raiders, which isn't exactly something to get overly excited about. The win over the Eagles could be huge for them in this division race, but it came before the Nick Foles era exploded. Michael Vick was injured in that game and Matt Barkley took over with miserable results. Philadelphia is a much better team than they were in that game. Now this week they beat a Packers team that, without Aaron Rodgers, was forced to start a practice squad quarterback making his first career start. So no, this does not prove the Giants are suddenly good again. It just means they aren't playing as awful as they were to start the season and are capable of at least beating bad teams. But with a few more bad teams on their schedule, it's still conceivable they could pull out ahead in this weak division and we've seen before what happens if they can get on a roll late in the season heading into the playoffs.
Another good sign that the Giants are getting back on track - their run defense is playing well again. Rookie Eddie Lacy has been one of the league's best rushers this season, but the Giants held him to only 27 yards on 14 carries. Sure, they were able to load the box against him and force Scott Tolzien to try to beat them instead, which has been the case for most of this win streak, but rising to 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed is nothing to scoff at either.
Percy Harvin made his Seahawks debut to face his former team, as Seattle crushed the Vikings. Harvin was understandably on a limited snap count, but did manage one outstanding catch that went for 17 yards and also returned a 58-yard punt.
It wasn't a huge yardage day for either Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch, but that's partly because

both sat for the majority of the 4th quarter of the blowout. Wilson still passed for two TDs, one of which was to Lynch, while Lynch also ran in two himself.
After a pair of awful decisions from Christian Ponder that led to fourth quarter turnovers, the Vikings benched their QB for Matt Cassel. I have a feeling we aren't done this season hearing the "Vikings have benched quarterback A for quarterback B."
Denver snapped the Chiefs undefeated streak to move back into the top spot in the AFC West. The Chiefs defense did hold the Broncos to a season low 27 points, but it wasn't enough. To keep up with Denver's juggernaut offense, the Chiefs needed more from their own offense. In his career, Manning is nearly unbeatable in games where the opponent scores less than 21 points.
Not that Manning has any shortage of options available in the passing game, but Wes Welker exiting with a concussion has to be a concern. He'll be re-evaluated later in the week and need to pass all the concussion protocols before determining if he'll be cleared for his much anticipated return to New England next week.
Trailing by 10 in the second quarter against the league's highest scoring team, Kansas City kicked a field goal on 4th and goal from the one yard line. When you get that close against this Denver team, you need to get the touchdown. Later in the 4th quarter, trailing by 14, the Chiefs punted on 4th and 7... from Denver's 41 yard line. The punt resulted in a touch back, so all that accomplished was pushing Denver back 21 yards without the benefit of a reasonable chance for a first down had they kept the offense on the field. Conservative coaching decisions doomed the Chiefs.
Jamaal Charles had his lowest output of the season, with 72 total yards (which includes -6 receiving yards). Last week against Buffalo was the first time all season Charles failed to reach 100+ total yards, but at least he came close enough with 96. Against Denver he wasn't close. He also hasn't scored in his last three games, after scoring at least TD in each of his first 7 games.
The Panthers held on to survive against the Patriots thanks to a controversial call on the last play of the game. New England got the ball back for one last drive with under a minute remaining, trailing by four and needing a TD. Tom Brady led the Patriots down to the Carolina 18 yard line with mere seconds remaining. With time for only one last play, Brady dropped back and tossed a pass under pressure into the end zone. Rob Gronkowski was in the area, but a Panthers defender wrapped his arms around him and drove him backwards while the ball was in the air, allowing Robert Lester to sweep in and intercept the pass in the spot Gronk should have been. A flag was thrown for pass interference, but after huddling together, the referees inexplicably overruled the call and picked up the flag, ending the game. The cowardly refs then made a mad dash off the field, without bothering to provide an explanation for the shocking decision, as a fuming Brady chased after them in protest.

Referee Clete Blakeman later explained his decision to pick up the flag, explaining that they felt a penalty was not warranted because the ball was not catchable since it was intercepted and Gronkowski was not close enough to have made a play for it. No kidding! The reason Gronk wasn't close enough to make the catch himself was because he was getting tackled while the ball was in the air! The defender impeded his path to the ball, which is essentially what pass interference means! The backlash following the game was nearly exclusively in favor of the Patriots. The Monday Night Football crew was baffled by the call. Steve Young and Tim Hasselbeck re-enacted the play in the post game show to illustrate why it was a penalty. ESPN held a nationwide poll asking fans for their thoughts and every state in the country voted that the refs got the call wrong... except North Carolina of course (although the vote in that state was closer than you'd expect, with only 52% of voters saying it was the right call).
Former NFL VP of Officiating (and current Fox analyst) Mike Pereira tweeted: "Since the flag was thrown they should have stayed with the call. There was clear contact before the ball was intercepted." This guy is never wrong.

To be clear, had the refs not picked up the flag it would not necessarily have meant the Patriots would have won. Even though time had run out, the game can't end on a penalty, so the Patriots would have been allowed one untimed play from the Carolina 1-yard line. There is no guarantee they would have been able to punch it into the end zone with only one chance, but what are the odds that they would have been able to gain 1 yard? 70%? 80%? NFL teams have converted two-point conversions about 52% of the time this season, which presents a similar situation except in those cases the attempt comes from the two yard line. New England would be a yard closer, heavily increasing those odds. That percentage also factors in terrible offenses that have tried and failed (Jacksonville is predictably 0-2 on two-point conversions this year). That Panthers defense is very good, but New England managed a healthy 4.3 yards per carry in the game. They should get the benefit of the doubt that the most likely outcome would have been a Patriots victory if the penalty were called correctly. The referee's misinterpreted the rule, which cost New England a victory for the second time this season (the first coming on the bizarre ending a few weeks ago in the Jets game).
A non-call may have cost New England the game, but several penalties they committed were also

responsible for the loss. Aqib Talib continued his fierce rivalry with Panthers receiver Steve Smith, which dates back to Talib's time in Tampa. There's plenty of bad blood between these two and unfortunately for the Pats, it showed on the field. After Smith was tackled to the ground after a 5-yard reception, Talib refused to release Smith's leg as the receiver attempted to get back to his feet. This led to a shoving match between the two, which resulted in Talib drawing an unnecessary roughness flag for starting the skirmish. So instead of the Panthers facing third down, they got a first down inside the red zone, which led to Carolina's first TD of the game. A promising drive in the second quarter stalled after Logan Mankins was called for unnecessary roughness, backing the Pats up 15 yards. That led to them settling for a field goal, just when it looked like they were in position to become only the second team this season to score a TD in the first half against this Panthers defense. On the Panthers game winning drive late in the 4th quarter, New England's defense stopped them on 3rd down, but Devin McCourty was called for defensive holding. Technically he never grabbed Greg Olson, but he did stick his arm out to hold him back (although he did a nice acting job of holding his arms out to signal to the officials that his hands weren't touching the receiver).
On Ted Ginn's game winning TD catch, Kyle Arrington whiffed on a tackle that a defensive back absolutely has to make. With Ginn's speed, once he was by him, he was gone. So as bad as that game ending non-call was, the Patriots made plenty of mistakes earlier to put themselves in that position.
Lost in all the controversy is how great Cam Newton and the Panthers played. Carolina has been a losing team in each of Newton's first two seasons and after a six game winning streak, league observers are finally starting to look at them as a contender. Last week's narrow win over the 49ers gave some legitimacy to their streak, as it was the first team with a winning record that they had beaten all year. Under the bright lights of Monday Night Football against Brady and the Patriots, this was arguably the biggest game of Newton's pro career and he shined with 209 yards and 3 TDs. He also rushed for 62 yards, extending several drives with first down runs. On one play, Newton ran back, forth and sideways, eluding tacklers to keep the play alive. He must have run for close to 75 yards on that play, but only 14 of them were beyond the line of scrimmage.

Things I Noticed: Week 10

2013-11-12T14:00:00.001-05:00

Spoiler alert! Every team in the NFL has now won at least one game this season. Welcome to the club Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Seems only fitting that the two worst teams would win in the same week, crushing the hopes of millions of people in Eliminator Pool leagues.

Bye weeks: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, New York Jets

Here are some things I noticed this week:

Christian Ponder made a diving attempt to stretch across the goal line on a 15-yard scramble at the end of the 3rd quarter, but came up less than a yard short. Adrian Peterson would punch in the winning score on the next play, but Ponder wouldn't be on the field to hand it off to him, as he had dislocated his shoulder on that previous play.
Peterson (75 yards, 2 TDs) now has 9,635 career rushing yards. Only four players in league history

have had more rushing yards through their first 7 seasons in the league and Peterson's season is barely half over. With 7 games left, it's not out of reach for him to pass LaDanian Tomlinson (10,560) for first on that list.
Robert Griffin III (281 yards, 3 TDs) led one last drive to attempt to tie the game, driving all the way to the Vikings four yard line with 38 seconds left, when Minnesota coach Leslie Frazier bizarrely called a time out that nearly cost his team the game. He later defended the decision by saying he needed to give his defense a breather and leave some time left to comeback in case Washington scored. By doing so though, he gave Washington at least an extra play or two. RGIII threw an incomplete pass on the next three attempts to turn it over on downs, so the timeout would not come back to haunt Frazier. On 4th down Santana Moss caught a pass in the end zone, but only managed to keep one foot in bounds. Minnesota was literally one foot away from blowing the game on a play Washington never would have had time to run if they hadn't called that time out.
Marshawn Lynch went into Beast Mode to plow through the Falcons for 145 yards (at a whopping 6.0 yards per carry!) and a score. Lynch is now 2nd in the league in rushing and leads all running backs with 48 runs for a first down.
Remember when we thought Atlanta finally upgraded their running game by replacing the aging Michael Turner with Steven Jackson? Looks like next year we'll be talking about how the Falcons are replacing the aging Jackson with someone else. Not only has Jackson missed the majority of his team's games this season, but he hasn't been effective since he returned. Sure, Seattle has a great run defense, but 11 yards on 9 carries? That's not getting it done.
Calvin Johnson caught two TD passes to lift the Lions over the Bears. That gives Megatron 63 career TDs, which sets a new franchise record for Detroit.
Trailing by 8 late in the game, Chicago got one last chance to run their two minute drill, but would have to do so without Jay Cutler. The Bears QB missed the final drive of the game with an ankle injury, forcing them to rely on a cold backup coming off the bench. Tough spot to put Josh McCown in, but he responded by connecting with Brandon Marshall for a TD with 40 seconds left. It turned out not to be enough, as they failed the two point conversion that would have tied the game, falling just short of the comeback.

Cutler suffered a high ankle sprain, which puts his availability in doubt for the near future. The Bears are considering him week-to-week for now.

So I guess last week wasn't a fluke. No, Nick Foles didn't throw 7 TD passes again, but he did throw 3 more to lead the Eagles over Green Bay. Foles now has 16 TD passes this season without throwing an interception.
We new life without Aaron Rodgers would be rough for the Packers, but things went from bad to worse when Seneca Wallace exited early with a groin injury. You'll be forgiven if you don't recognize the name Scott Tolzien, considering he was just signed off the practice squad this week and thrust into action for the first time in his career. All things considered, the rookie wasn't terrible, but for cheese heads that have spent over two decades watching Brett Favre and Rodgers run their offense, it has to be quite a shock. Now you know how fans in Cleveland must feel.
The Jaguars won a game! The Jaguars won a game! A team that struggled to average double digit points won by scoring 29. Ok, so it wasn't the offense putting up all those points. The winning score came when the defense returned a Ryan Fitzpatrick fumble for a TD and the difference in the narrow two point win came from a safety, when the Titans were called for a holding penalty in their end zone.
Anyone counting on Jake Locker to have a big day against Jacksonville came away sorely disappointed. Locker threw a pick and lost a fumble before exiting with an injury. It was later reported that he suffered a season ending foot injury. That also likely ends any chance the Titans had of making a run at a Wild Card spot, but any team that loses to Jacksonville probably shouldn't get in the playoffs anyway.
Perhaps an even bigger shocker than the Jaguars actually winning a game came when the Rams blew out the Colts in Indianapolis. We know Andrew Luck is at his best when given the chance to come from behind, but that plan doesn't work so well when you spot the opponent 38 points first. Luck wasn't in top form this week, throwing three INTs and losing a fumble.
Not that the Colts were getting any help from their running game either. Trent Richardson manged only 2 yards on 5 carries, which somehow made him the team's leading rusher (aside from Luck, who scrambled for 17 yards). We've all heard the jokes about how Richardson should be nicknamed Trent Richardson 3.0 based on his yards per carry. How long until we have to change that to Trent Richardson 2.0? After this miserable effort, he's down to averaging 2.8 yards per carry since moving to Indy. Not exactly what they envisioned when they gave up a 1st round pick for him.
It's about time the Rams figured out how to use Tavon Austin. The rookie used his blazing speed to

score on a 98-yard punt return and added two long TD catches. He's only the third player ever to have 3 scores of at least 50 yards in a game at the age of 22 or younger. Pretty much every time he touched the ball, the Colts struggled to catch up to him. Makes you wonder why they don't use him more often.
Andre Brown made his season debut after recovering from a broken leg he suffered in the pre-season and the Giants wasted little time in relying on him to carry their struggling running game. Brown shouldered a heavy load, carrying 30 times for 115 yards and a score to lift the Giants over Oakland.
After starting out 0-6, the Giants have won three straight and improbably find themselves within a game of the NFC East leading Cowboys. The playoffs once looked like a long shot, but keep in mind that Washington started 3-6 last season before rallying with 7 straight wins to end the season with the division title. Do these Giants have a run like that in them? The NFC East is wide open right now. I'd consider the Eagles as the favorite right now, but you can really make a case for any team in the division.
Andy Dalton launched a Hail Mary from near mid-field with two seconds left in the 4th quarter. The ball was tipped multiple times before AJ Green came up with it to tie the game and send it to OT. James Ihedebo made a poor play by volleying the ball up toward Green rather than swatting it to the ground. It's the last play of regulation! Trying to make a play for an interception does you nothing and an incomplete pass ends the game. Swat the ball down!
The Bengals opened the extra period with the ball, but their offense stalled right on the edge of field goal range. Rather than try a long kick or punt it away, Marvin Lewis made the bold decision to go for it on 4th and 2. Not only did they not succeed, but once Giovoni Bernard saw his path cut off, he tried to cut back to go around the other way and ended up losing 11 yards on the play, setting up the Ravens with fantastic field position for the game winning field goal drive.
Will Ben Roethlisberger ask for a trade after the season? NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported that Big Ben is frustrated with the direction the franchise is going and could seek a trade. His agent is denying the rumors, but if they are true, it would be tough to blame him for wanting out if they can't piece together an offensive line capable of protecting him. Despite getting a win against Buffalo this week, Roethlisberger couldn't have felt great about getting sacked four more times. He's been sacked 35 times already this season, second most in the league behind Ryan Tannehill (37).
So much for CJ Spiller's big break out last week. He's reportedly healthier than he's been all year, but it didn't show on the field, as he managed only 23 rushing yards on 8 carries.
It's looking like this Panthers team is legit after all. Their steak of beating teams by 2+ TDs ended after four games, but they'll take a 1 point win over a fellow contender like the 49ers. Carolina still has not allowed a TD in the first quarter this season and have allowed a total of only 8 first quarter points. They currently find themselves only one game back of the Saints in the NFC South race and now own a tie breaker over the Niners for the top Wild Card spot.
San Francisco's passing game was essentially non-existent. Colin Kaepernick completed only half of his 22 passing attempts for 91 yards and threw an INT. After taking the league by storm last year, Kaepernick has regressed in his first full season as a starter. He finds himself outside the top 20 in passing percentage and passing yards. Since exploding for 412 yards in a Week 1 shootout against the Packers, he's topped 200 passing yards in a game only one other time.
Arizona's defense sacked Case Keenum on the first play of the game, stripping the ball loose and returning the fumble for an early score in the Cardinals victory over Houston.
The Texans disappointing season got even worse with the news that Arian Foster will require season ending surgery to repair his injured back. With Foster out, Ben Tate got his 4th career start. Despite being contained by a tough Cardinals run defense, the Texans are better equipped than most teams to handle the loss of a Pro-Bowl running back. Since 2011, Tate is 4th in the league in yards per carry (4.9). That trails only CJ Spiller, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles.
Houston's prized off-season acquisition Ed Reed is being released following comments he made after the team's latest loss that were critical of the coaching staff. Which contender will be the first to scoop him up? We know Bill Belichick is a fan...
Demaryious Thomas caught three of Peyton Manning's four TD passes and Julius Thomas (no

relation) caught the other, as the Broncos took down the Chargers. Manning now has 33 TDs this season, putting him on pace for a record shattering 58. The Thomas twins (seriously, they are not related) and Wes Welker all have 9 TD catches, tying them for second most in the league.
Danny Woodhead caught four passes, including one for a TD as the Chargers attempted a second half comeback. Woodhead leads all running backs in receptions with 53 this season.
The Saints offense crushed the Cowboys with 625 total yards that led to 49 points. They also set a new league record with 40 first downs in the game. Several of those first downs were picked up by Mark Ingram, who had a career day with 145 yards and a TD. The former Heisman winner has been a disappointment in his three year career and has missed most of this season with an injury, so this kind of a break out performance was badly needed.
The Cowboys defense fell apart after losing leading tackler Sean Lee to a hamstring injury. His absence opened up plenty of room for Drew Brees to pick apart the middle of the field and opened running lanes for the Saints three headed backfield. It wasn't just Ingram getting in on the fun, as Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles both scored on the ground and through the air.
New Orleans made it a point to take Dez Bryant out of the game, using press coverage to disrupt his routes and often sending double teams his way. Tony Romo made an adjustment at the line of scrimmage to move Bryant into the slot on the play leading to Bryant's only catch, which went for 44 yards. Too bad they couldn't find more ways to get creative with their top receiver, as Romo struggled when he was unable to rely on Bryant. He completed only 10 of 24 passes for 128 yards.
The Cowboys fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan after last season to make him the scapegoat for another year without a postseason appearance. Since last season, Dallas has dropped from 19th in yards allowed all the way to last in the league, while giving up slightly more points per game. Meanwhile, the Saints defense has improved from setting a record for the most yards allowed a year ago to 7th in yards allowed, while giving up over 10 points per game less than last year. Maybe Ryan wasn't the problem in Dallas last year after all.
Tampa Bay became the last team in the league to finally pick up their first victory by beating Miami on Monday night. After blowing a 15 point lead, the Bucs came back with a 4th quarter rushing TD from Bobby Rainey to win the game. After the offense suffered a devastating loss to Doug Martin earlier this year, Mike James took over in the backfield and had become somewhat of a savior for the team's running game lately. After getting off to a great start, with 41 yards on only five carries in the first quarter, James went down with an ankle injury. It's feared to be a fracture, which will rule James out indefinitely.
Facing 3rd and goal from the 1 yard line, Tampa lined up with an extra offensive lineman. The Bucs faked a power rush to the right. Donald Penn, lined up on the left end of the line, pretended to block for a moment, before slipping behind the defense, unnoticed. Mike Glennon lofted a pass to the uncovered Penn for an easy touchdown. Sweet play.
When the MNF crew went over their scouting report for the Dolphins early in the game, they referred to Miami's "unsettled offensive line." Talk about an understatement! This Jonathan Martin story just won't go away, as it seems new aspects of the story come out every day. First, teammates came to Incognito's defense, with some even expressing they were upset with Martin for making this a public issue instead of handling it in the locker room. Maybe not everyone on the team is against Martin, but it's clear that Incognito is by far the more popular player. This may make it impossible for Martin to come back to the team at this point. Richie Incognito finally made his first public comments to defend himself, stating that the messages between he and Martin that became public were overblown and not to be taken literally. Well sure, we didn't actually think Incognito was serious about wanting to kill Martin, but that doesn't mean it's ok to say. I'm also skeptical that Incognito ever had any intention of taking a crap in Martin's mouth, because that would be pretty weird if he tried... and also gross! Who even says that anyway?? Incognito claims that's just the way the guys in the locker room talk to each other and Martin is guilty of such talk as well. Is Martin a hypocrite for feeding into this type of behavior, then playing the bullying card when it gets turned against him? Or is Incognito really so oblivious to his actions that he honestly didn't realize the impact they were having on his "friend" and teammate? Either way, this is far from over, as the league looks to crack down on hazing to prevent a media firestorm like this from embarrassing them again. Don't expect Martin or Incognito to suit up for the Dolphins anytime soon - if ever.

Things I Noticed: Week 9

2013-11-05T16:02:00.000-05:00

We are officially past the halfway point of the season, as every team has now played at least 8 games. No division leader currently has more than a two game lead in the standings, while one division has three teams tied at the top. This bodes well for a competitive second half.

Bye weeks: Denver, Detroit, New York Giants, Arizona, San Francisco, Jacksonville

Here are some things I noticed this week:

It was a rough day for Andy Dalton, who threw 3 picks without a TD against the Dolphins, but the low-light of his night was getting sacked in his own end zone for a safety in overtime that cost the Bengals the game. It was only the third time in league history a game has ended on a safety. The play came on 3rd and 10 from the Bengals 8-yard line. Why was Dalton dropping back in the shotgun formation and going anywhere near his own end zone in that situation?
Giovani Bernard picked up 104 total yards and scored twice. His second touchdown was ridiculous. Brent Grimes almost tackled him for a loss, but Bernard managed to elude the tackle and cut back all the way to the other side of the field. Once he found space along the sideline, he cut back toward the middle of the field and dodged yet another Grimes tackle (credit the defender for recovering to at least get himself in position to try to make another tackle?). The rookie received less than half the amount of hand-offs that BenJarvis Green-Ellis received, but that was partially due to Bernard exiting early with a rib injury. Assuming the injury isn't serious, Bernard needs to get more touches. While the Law Firm is a solid veteran that will reliably pick up short chunks of positive yards, he doesn't come close to the big play ability of Bernard.
Miami has suspended Pro Bowl guard Richie Incognito indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the

team, after teammate Jonathan Martin accused him of harassment. He apparently even has the text messages and voice mails to prove that Incognito threatened him and used racial slurs to demean and bully him. If this is true, Incognito has no place in the Dolphins locker room (or in any other teams). This behavior can't be tolerated and the Dolphins are making the right choice by removing him from the team to prevent further damage to team chemistry.
Despite Jamaal Charles being held to under 100 total yards for the first time all season, the Chiefs improved to 9-0 on the strength of their defense. Just when it appeared that Buffalo was about to go up two scores in the third quarter, Sean Smith intercepted a Jeff Tuel pass in the end zone and returned it over 100 yards the other way to tie the game. Just a back-breaking momentum swing for the Bills. Then in the 4th quarter, Tamba Hali returned a fumble for the game winning score.
It was looking like the Cowboys were following a familiar script late in the 4th quarter. After Adrian Peterson scored to put the Vikings ahead, Tony Romo responded by throwing an INT. Same old Romo, right? Not this time. After the defense forced a three-and-out, Dallas got the ball back for one last try. This time Romo came through with a 90-yard drive that ended in a short TD pass to Dwayne Harris with 35 seconds remaining.
Romo and the Cowboys were given that second chance due to poor coaching from Vikings coach Leslie Frasier. Following the Romo interception, the Vikings found themselves in a 4th and 5 situation from the Dallas 36 yard line. They could have attempted a 53-yard field goal that would have put them up a touchdown with under three minutes to go. Blair Walsh has 2 field goals of 50+ yards this season and had 10 of them last year. Inside the confines of a dome, he was more than capable of making it from that distance. Or they could have went for it on 4th down. Had they picked up the first down they could have ended up with a closer field goal chance (or a touchdown!) while running more time off the clock. Instead they tried to trick Dallas into jumping off-side and when that didn't work, they took a delay of game penalty and punted the ball away. Instead of extending their lead or winning the game, Frasier gave the ball back to the Cowboys rather than risk giving up 26 yards of field position. Guess that plan backfired. No wonder the Vikings are 1-7.
The Panthers had not allowed a TD in the first half of a game all year until Matt Ryan found Tony Gonzalez for a score with under two minutes to go in the half. Carolina was minutes away from extending their streak to 8 games, which would have been the best streak of shutting opponents out of the end zone in the first half of games since 1940.
Carolina may have given up a first half TD, but it's the only one they'd give up, as they shut out the Falcons in the second half and cruised to a victory. The Panthers are on a roll now, winning four straight games by more than two touchdowns, to find themselves within a game of the Saints for the top spot in the NFC South. Many left the team for dead when they started 1-3, figuring coach Ron Rivera was on the hot seat and even questioning Cam Newton's future with the team.

The Panthers issues have primarily been with winning close games. They lost the first two games of this season by a combined six points. The solution they have found to this issue is to stop playing close games! Simple enough when you're cruising through a cupcake portion of the schedule, but it won't always be this easy. Carolina will be tested in upcoming weeks against the 49ers and Patriots.

As for the 2-6 Falcons, it looks like their season is toast. Matt Ryan continues to look shaky without the services of his top two receivers. He threw 3 more INTs this game, including one that was returned by the Panthers for a score. That makes 7 picks in the past two games, which gives him 10 on the season. He's on pace for 20 INTs, which would easily be worse than his career high of 14.
Danny Woodhead made a diving attempt toward the pylon on the Chargers final drive of regulation, but came up inches short. It was originally ruled a TD, but after review it was determined that the ball never touched the pylon or crossed the plane - it was Woodhead's foot that knocked the pylon over after he sailed past it out of bounds. It did give the Chargers first and goal from the 1-yard line, but they failed to gain that extra yard settled for a FG that sent the game to OT.
RGIII led Washington on a scoring drive on the opening drive of overtime to beat the Chargers. Fullback Darrel Young punched in the winning TD, crossing the goal line for the third time in the game.

Alfred Morris (121 yards, 1 TD) had another great game and continues to lead all running backs in yards per carry (5.2). He deserved better than to have three more scores vultured from him. It happened a few weeks ago with Roy Helu Jr. stealing a trio of TDs. Now it's Young coming out of nowhere to get goal line carries to score for the first time all season. This is why fantasy football owners hate Mike Shanahan.

San Diego opened the scoring early in the second quarter with a bizarre pick-six play. Pinned against their own goal line, RGIII tried throwing from his end zone. The ball was tipped and deflected off another player, but somehow stayed in the air long enough for Sean Lissemore to snatch it out of the air for a Chargers TD.
The Rams run defense had made a lot of progress the past two weeks, but against the Titans they

looked like the same unit that was getting trampled earlier this year. Chris Johnson ripped through them for 150 yards and 2 scores to lead Tennessee to victory. It's the first time all season that Johnson has rushed for 100+ yards and also the first time he's scored.
If the Rams run defense has been bad, their rushing offense hasn't been much better. At least until now. St. Louis entered the week without having scored a rushing TD all season, but Zac Stacy scored twice, while piling up 178 total yards.
Rex Ryan got the better of his twin brother Rob again, as his Jets defense held the powerful Saints offense in check. Granted, playing without Marques Colston and losing Darren Sproles to a concussion early in the game made the Saints a little less potent, but Drew Brees still had plenty of options to work with and couldn't get the job done. The Jets capitalized on the Saints mistakes, including two INTs and a 4th and inches stop, to score a huge upset.
Why would the Saints try an end around with a backup tight end on 4th and inches, while trailing by 9 points in the 4th quarter? The decision to go for it on 4th down rather than attempt a long 53-yard FG was understandable, but the execution was lacking. The Jets sniffed out the misdirection play, stuffing Josh Hill for an 8-yard loss.
Now there's the explosive Patriots offense that we all know and love! A season high 55 points, and 610 total yards is more along the lines of what we had come to expect from New England (and what they'll need in order to remain a contender if they continue to lose key players on defense to injuries). Rumors of Tom Brady's demise were greatly exaggerated. Turns out, the guy can still play when he actually has healthy targets to throw to! Aaron Dobson had a career day, with 130 yards and two TDs, including an 81-yard catch to help the Patriots pull away in the 4th quarter (who says Brady can't throw the deep ball anymore?). Danny Amendola had his best game of the season as well. Not just because of his performance (122 yards, 1 TD), but because he made it through a game without getting injured! Then of course, there's Rob Gronkowski (9 catches, 143 yards, 1 TD), who we can now say is officially back to being among the best at his position (for tight ends - it's him and Jimmy Graham, then everyone else).
Brady and Ben Roethlisberger each threw for 400+ yards and 4 TDs. Neither had a 3+ TD game all season. Brady had only had one other game this year with 300+ yards this season!
The Steelers have an elite pass defense, ranking 4th in the league by allowing only 210 passing yards per game. Yet Brady nearly doubled that against them. The Steelers are typically good in coverage, but struggle to put pressure on the QB, recording only 13 sacks all season. You can't give Brady time to throw in the pocket or he'll pick you apart. Teams that have success against Brady are able to hit him early and often and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Pittsburgh wasn't able to do that, which explains why Brady was able to come through with his best performance of the season.
Jericho Cotchery had a career day, with 7 catches for 96 yards and 3 TDs. Roethlisberger may miss having a true top receiver like Mike Wallace around, but if his #3 receiver has games like this, it looks like Big Ben will be fine.
To start the season we saw Peyton Manning tie an NFL record with 7 passing scores in a game

against Baltimore. The Broncos were on a bye this week, but are we sure Peyton didn't sneak over to Oakland to beat up on the Raiders? No, that wasn't him? Wait, so that was really Nick Foles tearing the Raiders apart? The Eagles backup QB had a career day with 406 yards and 7 TDs, to tie the record held by Manning and handful of others that played over 50 years ago. Given the yardage total, record TD total and perfect passer rating (wait, why is 158.3 considered perfect?), it's fair to wonder if Foles just had the best game any QB has ever had. His QBR of 99.1 was significantly better than the 83.6 rating Manning had in Week 1.

So I guess there's no rush for Michael Vick to get back, right? Any ideas on where Vick might be playing next season? Something tells me that after this game, the Eagles won't need him.

Darren McFaddon picked up a measly 12 yards on 5 carries, before exiting with a hamstring injury... again. Or maybe he just wanted to take a seat and watch the Nick Foles show. Rashad Jennings carried 15 times for 102 yards and a score, while adding 7 catches for 74 yards as a nice bonus. In other words, he'll be a popular waiver wire pick up in your fantasy league if McFaddon can't suit up next week, but will probably end up being a disappointment when you start him.
The winless Bucs traveling to Seattle to play in perhaps the most difficult road environment in the league? Sounds like the makings of a blowout, but it actually took overtime for Seattle to squeak by with a victory, after climbing out of a 21 point hole they dug themselves into in the first quarter.

A -3 turnover margin helped put Seattle in that hole. Teams with a turnover margin of at least -3 have a 2-19 record this season. Given their sloppy play, they were lucky to escape with a win this week.

Russell Wilson has never lost at home, as the Seahawks picked up their 12th straight home win, dating back to the start of last season. Wilson recovered from a sloppy start to toss two TD passes and run another one in on his own to rally the team back for the win.
The Seahawks are supposed to have one of the league's most fearsome run defenses, but for a backup running back, Mike James sure didn't seem to have much trouble with it. James has been given a heavy workload (28 carries this week!) in the absence of Doug Martin and he's taking advantage of the opportunity. He ran through Seattle's defense for 158 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

One of the sweetest plays of the game also involved James. Facing first and goal at the 2 yard line, Tampa lined up with an extra lineman, suggesting a power rush was coming. James took the hand-off, made a move as if he were going to plow forward, then stopped short. Instead of rushing forward, James jumped in the air and tossed a short pass to tight end Tom Crabtree for the TD.

Cleveland finally beat the Ravens for the first time in their last 12 tries behind three TDs from Jason Campbell. That puts them ahead of Baltimore in the standings and within 2 games of the division leading Bengals. The veteran Campbell may lack a high ceiling, but he's been steady and clearly the best option the have right now. At least until they find themselves out of contention for a playoff spot. Then having Brandon Weeden lose some more games for them might be their best option.
The defending Super Bowl champs have lost their swagger. Much of that was lost in the mass exodus of players they lost in the off-season, but of those that remain, they just aren't the same anymore. To the shock of no one (except apparently the Ravens front office), Joe Flacco has reverted back to being a mediocre QB after a hot streak in last year's playoffs banked him a Super Bowl ring and a new contract. He's outside the top 10 in every major QB category (Completion Percentage, Yards, TDs, QB Rating, Total QBR) and in the top 10 for all the bad categories (INTs, Sacks).
This was a playoff caliber game for the Texans, who desperately needed a win over the division leading Colts to stay relevant in the AFC South race. They came out playing like it in the first half, but unraveled in the second. Head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at halftime and was rushed to the hospital, perhaps foreshadowing his team's impending collapse.
Andrew Luck led yet another late comeback, scoring his 3rd TD of the half with 4 minutes left to give

the Colts the lead. Luck now has 10 career game winning drives in the fourth quarter or OT, the most any QB has had in their first two seasons to start a career since the 1970 merger.
The Colts were playing without Reggie Wayne on the field for the first time in nearly 13 years. That left it up to T.Y. Hilton to take over as the team's top target and the second year receiver didn't disappoint. He caught all three of Luck's second half TDs, while racking up 121 receiving yards.
Andre Johnson finished the first half looking to set all kinds of receiving records, but didn't do much in the second half (neither did the rest of the Texans offense). AJ80 would finish with 9 catches for 229 yards and 3 TDs, but only 2 of those catches for 39 yards came after halftime.
Houston had a chance to tie in the end, but Randy Bullock missed a 55-yard attempt as time expired. With that, the window for the Texans (2-6) as a contender this season also expired. Bullock's career might not be far from it either. Tough to blame him for missing from such long range, but the rookie kicker also missed two other attempts in the narrow loss and has hit only 13 of 21 attempts this season.
A Packers team that suffers a key loss to injury seemingly every week suffered their biggest blow of all, as Aaron Rodgers went down on the first drive of the game. While more tests are expected to come, it's been reported that he may have fractured his collarbone, which could keep him out for about three weeks. The loss to the Bears this week dropped Green Bay into a three way tie in the NFC North with Chicago and Detroit. A tailspin in Rodgers' absence could doom their season before he even gets a chance to take the field again. Luckily the Packers don't play a team with a winning record over the next three weeks, but as awful as Seneca Wallace looked Monday night, it may not matter. In Wallace's defense, he wasn't even with the team in pre-season, so he had never even taken a snap with the first team offense before. Talk about being thrown to the wolves! He'll get better, but the drop off from Rodgers is steep.
The silver lining for the Packers is that at least they have a running game now. Eddie Lacy carried the load with 22 carries for 150 yards and a score.
Chicago is currently without their own starting QB (although rumor has it Jay Cutler may be back as early as next week), but Josh McCown (272 yards, 2 TDs) has been filling in admirably. His job right now is to avoid mistakes (no turnovers), feed his top receivers (Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jefferey both scored) and rely on Matt Forte's versatility (179 total yards, 1 TD) to do the rest. Sounds like he gets a check in all of those categories this week, which led to a win in his first start this season.
Denver coach John Fox was hospitalized during his team's bye week after he became dizzy while playing golf. The 58 year old coach had surgery Monday morning to replace a heart valve and will remain out indefinitely. Assistant Jack Del Rio will take over in his absence.
Speaking of Denver's bye week, do you realize that Peyton and Eli were both off this week? Think they got together to shoot another commercial?
Jacksonville receiver Justin Blackman will miss the rest of the season after being suspended indefinitely for violating the league's substance abuse program. He already missed the first 4 games this season for the same violation and will now enter a rehab facility. Clearly he didn't learn his lesson the first time around. Or maybe he got busted again on purpose, just so he wouldn't have to play with Blaine Gabbert again.