Seattle Condo Review: Reviews, News, and Seattle Condo Market Updates - The Conversation

Comment by Wendy Leung on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

Wendy Leung — 2009-11-20T20:56:58-08:00

@MD

I think you are talking about September’s numbers. Auction sales were not *intentionally* left out for September. The market data I summarize on SCR uses MLS data. In September, most of Gallery auction homes were not listed on the MLS (and yet we still saw a double digit jump for pending sales in September on the MLS sales alone). In general, I don’t think that auction sales should be excluded as a sales. However, if they're not originally listed on the MLS, I'd only go to the trouble of manually incorporating non-MLS data at the request of a specific client. Hope this makes sense!

Comment by The MD on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

The MD — 2009-11-20T07:00:45-08:00

Wendy, but I thought about a month ago you were purposely keeping the auctions out of the numbers as not to skew data (meaning, sales are really not sales in your book). Why now is a "sale a sale?" The problem with keeping auctions and bulk buys in these numbers is that these are limited in inventory. What happens when the remaining inventory is off the market with respect to the auctions? Believe me, I'm not a "bear" as you so often like to say - I'm a realist with respect to where we are in this economy.

Comment by analyst on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

analyst — 2009-11-19T16:49:31-08:00

Sales at Mosler have been surprisingly slow and several have gone to market for less than their 2007 price.

#803 sold for $563,000 last week, and was originally sold for $615,000 in 2007, so it lost 4% per year, plus the cost of commissions. They must have lost close to $100k on that one.

#TH1 finally sold for $401k last month at $417 sq ft, which was a new low per square foot for the townhouse plan.

#TH5 sold in 2007 for $695,000, and sat on the MLS at $609k without any offers.

#704 is on the market at $339k which is probably $20k underwater once you take out commissions.

#1011 sold a year after opening for $6k less than the 2007 price, probably a $30k loss total with commissions etc.

The only thing helping the price at Mosler is probably the builders lien which locked up sales for so long and has kept units off the market until recently.

Comment by Wendy on "Ultra High End Condo"

Wendy — 2009-11-18T09:24:27-08:00

@Chris

Yes, it sold for $9.75M on 01/07/09.

Comment by Kevin on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

Kevin — 2009-11-18T01:20:23-08:00

I agree that Sep and Oct certainly have a mini-boom. A lot of good, well-priced listings in 98121 and 98004 (my main search areas) are sold. There is even one or two listings in Bellevue that raised price!

Curious question is whether this will last?

Comment by Wendy Leung on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

Wendy Leung — 2009-11-17T23:13:06-08:00

@MD

The data is from MLS and does not exclude auction sales or pending bulk buys but even if they did, it wouldn't make a big difference for the reported October numbers since very few auction or bulk buy sales were on MLS in October. Recompiling the data to exclude those few sales would take some time and I've been busy working with some clients so I may not get around to doing that.

That said, I can tell you that only 3 out of 44 Gallery auction sales were listed on MLS in Oct. Only 1 home from 1111 E Pike and Decatur bulk buy was listed as pending on the MLS in Oct. As you can see, the MLS reported growth in closed, pending, and median prices was in addition to the big boost in auctions and bulk buys.

Going forward, we will probably see those bulk buy numbers in the MLS data since they have now listed most of their homes on MLS. Even so, sales are sales in my book.

Comment by chris on "Ultra High End Condo"

chris — 2009-11-17T22:19:21-08:00

Did this penthouse just sell...Nov 2009. Anyone know how I can find out.

Thanks

Comment by The MD on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

The MD — 2009-11-17T21:32:58-08:00

I ask again... Wendy, can you provide the detail that supports those percentages and actual numbers, excluding any sales from auctions? Also, did these numbers include anything from "bulk buys?"

Comment by 34t5345 on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

34t5345 — 2009-11-16T08:26:30-08:00

i just dont see it, money is still way too tight,until thats resolved, flatline is the name of the game

Comment by Lucas on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

Lucas — 2009-11-15T15:47:22-08:00

Good thing the stimulus is still there to artificially inflate the demand. It'll be interesting to see how the inventory numbers will play out now that the market is supposedly bouncing back.

Comment by The MD on "October Seattle Condo Sales: Up, up, and....up"

The MD — 2009-11-14T07:51:01-08:00

Those are GREAT percentage increases! Can you provide the detail that supports those percentages and actual numbers, excluding any sales from auctions?

Comment by Wendy on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

Wendy — 2009-11-13T17:35:08-08:00

2200 Westlake is not in Belltown but they were included in the analysis because they share the same zip code.

Comment by kent on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

kent — 2009-11-13T16:43:26-08:00

Curious why Mosler Lofts were not included in your analysis. I don't think any units have re-sold for less than the initial sales price. Maybe one. Low volume for sure, but values have held up pretty well.

Comment by hhh on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

hhh — 2009-11-13T15:35:33-08:00

Since when is 2200 Westlake in Belltown?

Comment by datalove on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

datalove — 2009-11-10T23:06:26-08:00

Great post. Wondering why my agent isn't doing this for me.

Comment by Wendy on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

Wendy — 2009-11-09T11:27:00-08:00

@Ben
Yes, the 6% fee has been factored in. The research was for a client looking in Belltown so Madison Tower/ Hotel 1000 was not included as part of the analysis : )

Comment by Kevin on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

Kevin — 2009-11-08T16:47:45-08:00

Wendy, sorry I misread your post so the 97% is the "retention" rate instead of price increase.

Based on the current listings, I still beg to differ that Concord can still fetch 2006 price (the height of the bubble), but the numbers do make much more sense now.

Comment by ben on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

ben — 2009-11-06T16:02:29-08:00

Are you factoring in the 6% agent commission? e.g. If I sold my one bedroom at Concord for 97%, the transaction costs me 6% as well, so the actual net is 91%.

Cristalla is worse than I had thought, but you missed the #1 worst which is Madison Towers/Hotel 1000. I've seen several sell far underwater, and at least one that lost 37% y-o-y.

Comment by Wendy Leung on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

Wendy Leung — 2009-11-04T10:11:54-08:00

@Kevin
The numbers are from MLS so they are pretty reliable. The data was compiled based on average price per square foot sold for 1 bedroom condos during the peak of the market (~fall 2007) and fall 2008-2009. The 2008-2009 average price per square foot retention is 97% (for Concord and Klee) of what sold during the peak of the market. They're not referring to the increase in average price per square foot. Hope that helps!

Comment by Kevin on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

Kevin — 2009-11-04T02:41:03-08:00

I will wait for Wendy to respond if she will.

Of course I know offer price is different from sold price - sold price will be lower at current market so it will probably be sold around or below end of 2004 prices.

I can't see where the 97% increase is - unless a disproportionate number of sales happened in 2008 at before-crash prices.

Comment by hareem on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

hareem — 2009-11-03T23:15:35-08:00

@kevin: Price offered and price sold are two different things. Also, I believe Wendy looked at all the 1BR's in each building in aggregate so one off examples might be an exception.

Comment by Kevin on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

Kevin — 2009-11-03T17:54:51-08:00

Wendy, are you sure your numbers are correct?

There is an unit in Concord and the price offered is only 20K higher than the purchase price at the end of 2004.

Comment by FancyPants on "Seattle's Top Condo Investments"

FancyPants — 2009-11-02T13:39:32-08:00

I live in the Ellington and this is rather surprising to me. I currently have a 1 bedroom for sale, and I purchased directly from the seller in 2007 at peak value. While it's depreciated about 16% per Zillow over the past two years, seeing it represented on this list is somewhat comforting.

Comment by SLU resident on "Enso Update"

SLU resident — 2009-11-02T13:17:02-08:00

How about that closing date?
If is was pushed back to give existing buyers more time to review the new prices, I think they've had more than enough time to look now - what is delaying the buyers' decision are the prices, it's still too high! Even if the unit prices have dropped, the HOA dues are still very expensive for a building that will be barely half occupied, and need to be readjusted if Enso wants the buyers to come forth and finalize the sales.

Comment by The MD on "Bulk Buy Project Offers Classes"

The MD — 2009-10-24T08:36:25-07:00

If you have to offer classes to someone just to figure out how to make the real estate transaction happen, then you better think twice before adhering to this kind of transaction. Also, consider who is offering the "course." This isn't an independent firm that doesn't stand to profit from your transaction. The people offering the "course" are those that will directly profit from your transaction. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.....