It’s Gimme Week at the SEC ballpark

I mean really. Four games versus the Division 1-AA is the sort of thing that the rest of the world looks at when they get sick and tired of the medias talk of the SEC as the single greatest conference of all time. So you know what that means?

Auburn
Ole Miss
Georgia
Kentucky

You get a gimme to better your bowl eligibility. Congratulations.

As for the ones with guts and nuts? 

LSU at -7.5 Alabama

Suddenly, this game gets interesting after Alabama goes on a bye and LSU blanked Tulane 42-0. In the perception game? It’s going to be a classic. In the actual game? Take Bama. They can run the ball and defend well enough that they should answer Florida with a 13-3 win over LSU on their own.

Vanderbilt +35 at Florida

The half game suspension and the half game self-imposed benching for Brandon Spikes will allow Vanderbilt to move the ball somewhat. Vanderbilt has always been somewhat unbreakable on defense, even in their weakened state. Last week was a bit of an abberation. I think Florida gets to 40. But Vanderbilt gets to seven. That’s a cover.   

South Carolina +7 at Arkansas

Ten weeks in and these two teams wax and wane so wildly that you cannot get a bead on these teams. Is South Carolina in a swoon? How could Arkansas let Eastern Michigan cover? Am I asking rhetorical questions in an effort to pad my word count?  Suffice it to say, take the fighting Stephen Garcias.

Memphis at -26 Tennessee

At least this game has a local justification. Even if this is as much of a gimme as the other SEC non-conference games on the docket. The defense is stout, and game manager Crompton is a force of competency that will get a four touchdown win.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 35-26

LSU journey’s to Tuscaloosa this week to face the No. 3 team in the nation, the Crimson Tide. This will be Nick Saban’s second showdown with his former team. Coach Saban has tried to downplay that aspect of this game. Even without the history between Saban and LSU this is one of the most anticipated games of the season. It is a top 10 match-up that could have a major impact on the SEC championship. If Alabama wins Saturday they will clinch the SEC West, if they lose they could possibly miss the trip to Atlanta. Both teams have a lot of luck on their side. Nobody doubts Alabama’s luck after their win against Tennessee, and who can doubt Les Miles’ luck after their games against Georgia and Mississippi State.

LSU and Alabama are statistically very similar teams. Both teams have very strong defenses, and both teams quarterbacks have very similar stats. LSU’s biggest weakness I think will be third rushing defense which has been allowing an average of 114 yards per game this season. Alabama’s Achilles’ heel seems to be their ability to convert in the red zone. With both teams weaknesses and strengths the performance of a few key players on each team could be the deciding factor.

LSU has two of the strongest receivers in the SEC in Terrance Toliver and Brandon LaFell. If they are able to break free consistently on Saturday it could spell disaster for the Tide. Add to that running back Charles Scott who seems to be ready for a breakout performance this season, and LSU’s offense could cause some damage.

Alabama’s big offensive weapon is obviously Mark Ingram. With already over a 1,000 yards rushing this season, Ingram will come into this game rested and ready to go I’m sure. This week will probably be the performance of the season for Ingram. Alabama also has Julio Jones, who just like LSU’s Charles Scott, is prime for a breakout performance. Add to that Marquis Maze and Trent Richardson, and Alabama has the offensive weapons to reek havoc on the LSU defense as well.

I think this could be one of the best games of the season. Many are predicting this to be a relatively low scoring game. I think I agree with that. I do expect Alabama to pull it out by at least one touchdown. Right now my prediction is Alabama wins 24-17.

This means a stiff move where I get flipped by an undersized tough guy. So basically? Dan Mullen.

Vanderbilt: Good looking out on getting 31 points on Georgia Tech. Bad looking out on nearly getting doubled up. 
Georgia: I could make a snarky joke about how the good Lord really does not care about sports due to the failings of these here Bulldogs. But they lost a lot from last season. It was supposed to be a dropoff. I know it’s a big difference between 8-4 and 6-6, but still.
Kentucky: Mississippi State damages, but in no way kills (FCS Gimme and Vanderbilt equal 6 wins) their bowl eligibility. The fact that their skilled players are dropping like some characters in an Agatha Christie Novel is a problem that needs solving.
Mississippi State: Can they get to 6 wins? Alabama could be feeling really relieved after their game against LSU. Arkansas vibes like they have peaked. And if they go into the Egg Bowl with five wins? Ole Miss is the sort of team that will roll over.
Arkansas: The Bobby Petrino Supersystem still looks like its peaked. I mean, EMU is the sort of team that allows 500 yards rushing to previously winless teams. It could have been 630-27 and I would have said meh.
Ole Miss: Giggidy. They’re roasted, toasted, and burnt to a crisp as if they were the victims of Bobby Budnick tomfoolery.
South Carolina: Traveling to Arkansas when everybody and their mother is saying you’ve hit the collapse portion of your schedule? Not as easy of a challenge, even if Arkansas seems to have peaked.
Auburn: MALZAHN-MANIA has returned!!! And they get Furman this week. Chris Todd may be able to get his swagger back with this road work.
Tennessee: So long as I post here, I think I will leave the Crompton alone. He’s become a competent game manager. And with the sort of team UT has? That will be good enough to probably win out.

Youy’re welcome.
LSU: They’ve tuned up the band properly. They look ready. And Alabama’s default mode is vulnerable after last weekend’s bye.
Alabama: See? I moved Florida up in importance.  
Florida: They’ll wait for the SEC West to shake out. It’s either Championship or spoiling a BCS dream for them.

See? You cannot abide these tactics.

UPDATE: Brandon Spikes is suspended for a half of football. Versus Vanderbilt. He sure learned his lesson.

Ole Miss -4.5 at Auburn

Is Jevan Snead back? No. But will it matter this week? Also no. Ole Miss has a strong defensive line. Chris Todd needs to win this for the Tigers.  

Florida vs. +16 Georgia

No. Until Florida scores 30 points? They don’t get a spot where they get a double digit cover. Joe Cox to A.J. Green is worth 10 to 14 points on its own. And Florida gets a bad call. Apparently, David Stern is donating his commissioner strategies to young Mike Silve.

Eastern Michigan at -38 Arkansas

You have a team that can run the ball with an aptitude rolling up against a team that went up and gave up 500 yards rushing to a previously winless Mid-American team. I’m not saying that this is a lock, EMU could get two scores. But I would be more surprised by a running game that doesn’t get over 350 yards and put up 50 points.

Mississippi State +3.5 at Kentucky

Not the game of the week, per se. But this will be interesting. Big Blue will have not much name to their defense. But they do have Cobb. Will Dan Mullen try and fail at some Boise State trickeration? Does Kentucky get this to get bowl eligible? I’m inclined to say yes to both. Big Blue 28, Best 3-6 team of all time 27.  

Georgia Tech -12 at Vanderbilt

Easy logic. Georgia Tech’s offense can run the ball for 20-30 points against anybody. Vandy’s lucky to get to 14. I feel safe in going down this road.

South Carolina at +6 Tennessee

This will be a game for people named Strong Rockpunch and Captain Munnerlyn. Fight regarding fists. Punch your opponent in face. Crompton rally. The line has gone back to Tennessee, but I will take the points where I found it.  

Tulane +36 at LSU

My first instincts is that the Green Wave don’t have a defense to bring to the table. But upon further review? I have to take the cover. The Tigers are going to go vanilla. There is more power to waiting onto the next week and making a trick play to beat Alabama.

Not that they will, but still. That’s the plan-ey, Stan-ey.  

My prediction? Pain.

Welcome to the SEC, Gene Chizik

I’ve always been a fan of harsh reactions. I mean, the feeling you get when a team that you decided to leave for dead comes back and stabs your expectations in the jugular? It’s fun to see. This is why I am absolutely delighted as to this Paul Finebaum masterwork.

Do the math. In two consecutive road games, the Tigers have been out of games before the uniforms got dirty, trailing by a total of 65-6. This wasn’t against the Denver Broncos or the New Orleans Saints. Auburn fell behind 34-3 to an Arkansas team fresh off a 35-7 pounding to Alabama. LSU has looked a little better, but it still took a miracle goal line stand to beat Mississippi State.

Can we say lousy coaching?

I say give Gene Chizik a contract extension before someone comes and steals him away. After all, that 10-22 record as a head coach would be tough to turn down. One can only imagine that his agent’s phone is blowing up right now with calls from Louisville and Virginia. One thing is for sure — they don’t want him back at Iowa State. Did you notice over the weekend that his successor won at Nebraska (first time since 1977) and matched Chizik’s two-year total of victories?

Most people expected this to be the team that would be thanking their lucky stars for the existence of Mississippi State. Most people did not this team to do much. If this was a team that didn’t have a schedule that was so frontloaded? Mr. Finebaum would not find himself pulling such a Jay Mariotti.

You have a team that lacked athleticism at wide receiver and has been dinged up with the injuries as the schedule was going to be getting tougher. This wasn’t going to be spectacular for Auburn. I told bossman Jaynes that he needed to slow his expectational roll. Seven wins is still going to be a good year.

But I’m going to read more from this young upstart, Paul Finebaum. I don’t have enough hyperbolic overreaction in my life.

Shouldn’t I know more about the SEC by now?

I mean, by now, you should know the narrative for every team, right? And yet? We’re going on to Halloween and we do not see just how every team is doing their business. Or am I just thinking like an ESPN based pundit? Find out as we go down the road.

Vanderbilt: If they were an X-Box? They would be in the Red Ring of Death. Larry Smith’s incompletions are hotter than a dragon’s breath.
Mississippi State: Not to say that they would have beaten Florida? It still should have been 16-13 and everybody should have roundly mocked Dustin Doe for his Leon Lett impression. But Dan Mullen should be able to build on this as he gets his guys in.
Auburn: Tiiiiiiiiimber! Not to sound flip, but there is a distinct possibility that the Tigers might not win but one more game this year.
Arkansas: Did the Florida game break them? If a winless Mid-American team travels to Fayetteville and they don’t lose by 40? I will be inclined to agree with the premise I just made up.
Kentucky: The preseason triad of Jarmon, Johnson, and Lindley may be gone for a couple of weeks (and in the case of Jarmon, gone to Washington). It is the easiest part of their schedule, but the margin for error is gone. And if Randall Cobb’s back acts up again? Disaster.
Georgia: With the way Florida is playing and the way Georgia can play? A season can be saved at the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Tennessee: Lane could have run three four more plays and had the ball close. I know that Crompton can be Crompton, but in the grand scheme of things? You’ve got a kicker who’s more Crompton than Crompton on the day. I know it sounds crazy, but the default setting is to play conventionally. And when you fail that? You deserve the second guess for your wild ideas.
Ole Miss: Dexter McCluster is a cyborg. A delightfully tiny cyborg.
South Carolina: A close win. But if they can get the next two weeks? It will be the single greatest year in South Carolina’s history. But there could still yet be disaster.
LSU: Oh hi? Welcome back to the possibility of being the contenders in the SEC West. We missed you.
Florida: You need to stop screwing around. You’re screwing around too much. You’re reminding people of a Big 10 school. You want that? Huh?
Alabama: And don’t think I’ve forgetten about you. If it wasn’t for the Man Beast Terrence Cody? You would have lost to Tennessee. Greg McElroy is more Crompton than Crompton.

I know, it’s nuts, right? Right?

I know, I’m doing a list post. I feel bad. But you know what? I’m bringing all the energy that I can muster for this. I’ll add a brief picks post at the bottom. I’ve been stinking at them. Why add logic to that.

10) Eric Berry FS Tennessee

I like a little bit of luck, pluck and derring do. And the man who works center field in Rocky Top does all that for me. Watching him defend in the system is just simply making other people better.

9) Derrick Locke RB Kentucky

Everybody was all ZOMG, how can he come back from that severe knee injury that he suffered from last season. And all he did was come back and run for a 1000 yard season. I know, not exactly super special. But hey, we can’t all be sparkles and A.J. Green.

Anthony Dixon RB Mississippi State

I saw highlights of him on Disney XD and he was glowing! That’s awesome!

7) Randall Cobb QB/WR Kentucky

I’ve said it before and I will spare the joke for the kids. But suffice it to say that Randall Cobb is the glue that is holding the offense together as everything falls apart around him. I wouldn’t deem him to be underrated, but I deem him, awesome.

6) Dexter McCluster AP Ole Miss

Because he’s tiny and does things beyond kick returning and the occasional being unable to do anything with the ball in space.

5) Terrence Cody NT Alabama

MOBILE FAT MAN! Need I say any more in regards to this matter? I’m from Wisconsin, I really should rank him #1 as a paean to the homefolks, but I won’t.

4) Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee

Because he’s shown some moxie against crappy defense that at long last lead you to believe that Crompton can get this party started right. But he never does. He is SEC Sisyphus.

3) Dennis Johnson RB Arkansas

Because he’s got that Maurice Jones-Drew build and game. And he nearly beat Floreeda by himself. And he’s going back to the bench. Which makes me sad.

Sad.

2) Mark Ingram RB Alabama

One, because he’s running the ball like a man posessed. Two, because he’s the man who’s looking like he also helped make Glen Coffee special. Three, I’m feeling Florida as hacky.

1) A.J. Green WR Georgia

Electrifying receivers who catch passes from the gingered quarterback are always fun to watch. Always fun to watch.

A highly unscientific study? Sure, but watch these picks.

Vanderbilt +13 @ South Carolina
Tennessee +15 @ Alabama
Arkansas +6 @ Ole Miss
Mississippi State +23 vs. Florida
LSU -7.5  vs. Auburn
Louisiana-Monroe +15 @ Kentucky

Did I just pick mostly underdogs? Yes. And you know what?

I’ll even say this. Somebody’s gonna get Mullen’d.

Record: 28-22
Last Week: 2-4

Florida was lucky to come from behind last week rallying to nip Arkansas 23-20. It almost seems like Urban Meyer is babying Tim Tebow back into his explosive self. Look for the training wheels to be off this weekend. Tim Tebow will finish this game with 400 all-purpose yards and probably watch the fourth quarter from the Gator sidelines. The #1 team in the country will definitely come out screaming this week and the poor victim is a Bulldog in the form of Mississippi State.

In an uncharacteristic performance against the Razorbacks, the Gator offense dropped three passes, had four turnovers, allowed six sacks, and really struggled in the red zone. These statistics will have Meyer on overdrive at practice all week.

Mississippi State is coming off of a 27-6 win over Middle Tennessee last week. They should be motivated to play Florida. All signs would say that they can keep this game close.

With Florida playing a great game with a chip on their shoulders, I smell a blowout. B-L-O-W-O-U-T…

Florida… 44-13

Two weeks ago, I was excited to preview Auburn because I was going to get to make fun of the haters who said Gene Chizik’s tenure there would be a disaster. I would also get to sing the praises of Gus Malzahn. This was going to be a good week.

LSU is an eight point favorite, and given the history of tight games between these two teams along with LSU’s issues moving the ball, I think LSU is going to win but not cover the eight points Saturday night.