Seeing the Forest AND the Trees

Review of The Signal and the Noise

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:50:00 +0000

I recently finished reading Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, why so many predictions fail - but some don't. This book really opened my eyes to Bayesian inference, i.e., the ability to make successively better predictions by incorporating estimates based on prior knowledge. Beyond that, I found Silver's study of several fields where prediction are commonly used to be insightful. He looks at sports gambling, economics, political elections, flu epidemics, weather, and military and terrorist attacks. Although his own expertise is in baseball and election predictions, where he has a great track record, Silver's analysis transcends the statistics to include a study of human nature and of technology.

In the field of climate forecasts, the author shows how the commercial broadcast company weather forecasters use a different standard for determining what to report than do the national weather forecasters who are more independent. This leads to weather forecasts that are biased toward more chance of precipitation because people are more likely to enjoy an unexpected sunny day than an unexpected rain shower.

Something I'm finding more and more often in reading about how we think and process information is that there is a human tendency to see a pattern where there is none. Silver makes this point in regard to the much larger volumes of information that are available to us in many fields as a result of technological progress. More information leads to more theories. But it has not necessarily led to better predictions.

Silver's insight about the explosion of information following the invention of the printing press leading to increased sectarianism is brilliant. With more information available to people, via books and pamphlets, those with strong beliefs were able to publish their stories and rationales in a form that presented them as the truth. This led to more divisiveness. The explosion of information as resulting from the internet's wide usage is likely leading to a similar divisiveness in political opinion.

The difference between risk and uncertainty is something Silver does a nice job explaining. He says that risk "is something that you can put a price on..." while uncertainty is "risk that is hard to measure." How do we deal with uncertainty? Silver puts his money behind the concept of Bayesian inference whereby we reduce uncertainty in a gradual manner, based on our prior experience, adding our knowledge from new experiences to that prior experience.

The emergence of "complex systems" in our lives has led to some interesting mistakes in prediction. The weather, or the climate if you think longer-term, is a complex system with many variables. The economy is another. Silver delivers a scathing critique of the major stock ratings agencies in terms of how they miscalculated the risk of a major financial crash. "S&P and Moody's underestimated the default risk associated with CDOs by a factor of two hundred..." reports Silver. The analysis I'll leave for the reader to enjoy. Just one additional point, though, that he makes is that the gap between what we know and what we think we know is increasing as the volume of information available increases. That's a caveat emptor for the predictors if I've ever heard one!

Silver does a nice job of explaining two different "personas" in terms of experts making predictions. He draws from a study done by Philip Tetlock, a psychology and political science professor, who, while studying economists' predictions, decided to test the economists using some of his psychological profile tests. His study eventually covered other experts where prediction was performed, and spanned fifteen years. What he found was that the experts fell into one of two groups: hedgehogs or foxes. Hedgehogs were more convinced their theory was correct and more likely to not change it based on new information. Foxes were just the opposite. What he found was that foxes were more likely to make better predictions. This whole area of study, looking at how one's psychological profile affected one's ability to use information to make predictions, is exciting and is actually something that can be applied, with caution, across a lot of disciplines. Even in software development, where I work, I can see how it can apply.

Silver's analysis of the Pearl Harbor and 9/11 attacks bears some mention. In both cases, he explains how both events were, to some extent, statistically likely, but that both types of attacks were not thought probablye because they were unfamiliar. The United States in late 1941 was on alert for industrial espionage both in Hawaii and on the mainland, because it was thought Japanese Americans or Nazi sympathizers were likely to strike in that way. In the Pacific, Japanese attacks on southeast Asian nations was considered a high probability given that there was a lot of Japanese radio communication in those areas. In 2001, there had never been a serious airplane attack against a building. If an airplane were to be hi-jacked, it was thought to be with the goal of taking the plane to foreign soil.

Finally, Silver does a nice job of explaining power-law distributions, over-fitting a model and Bayesian inference. It encouraged me to want to learn more about the mathematics. He also has an incredible number of notes and references in the book. I found myself reading many footnotes, which had interesting commentary.

Overall, this was, in my opinion, a ground-breaking book, at least for the lay reader if not for a professional commonly involved in providing predictions.

Occupy, and Cause and Effect

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 22:27:00 +0000

The intensity of the Occupy movement has been growing week by week, reaching a crescendo this past week with the apparent coordinated shutdowns by US cities and then the backlash, followed by unwarranted pepper-sprayings, followed by viral postings of those incidents. A local Portlander who I follow on Twitter has been a regular at OccupyPortland and I noticed that he suggested that people should follow @_Capitalism_. I read through several pages worth of @_Capitalism_'s tweets and they are a witty and potentially sobering expose of the ills of capitalism as currently practiced.

This got me thinking more deeply about the larger impact of the Occupy movement. The Great Recession (that we are either in the tail of or which recently passed, depending on which economist you read) has occurred at a time when many college graduates are having difficulty finding jobs. The bailout of financial institutions followed by publication of bonus plans for financial executives have also occurred at the same time. On the surface, these two factors: a very sluggish job market and the excessive bonuses and bailouts certainly justify the indignation witnessed in the Occupy movement. If you add to those factors the polarization of Washington politics, we are clearing in a defining moment of time.

I have always believed that technological innovation would drive skills enhancements for many jobs. There would be less of a need for highly repetitive, mechanistic work, and more need for thoughtful analysis. A good example is the work of a nurse where the ability to read and respond to digital monitoring of a patient's condition has become routine. There is more expected of us at work now that we have automated some of the routine calculations and steps of a task. It is also true that some of the finer mechanical skills that technicians applied throughout the latter half of the nineteenth and the entire twentieth century have become less in demand as those workers have been replaced by automation.

It's difficult enough determining how best to use new technology on the job, more so to figure out the right mix of human and machine resources for an economy as a whole. It is not a zero-sum game where more technology at work means less humans at work. As computers started monitoring patients, or assembly-line operations, the skills required of people to work with that monitoring equipment changed. New industries were created to produce innovative gadgets and peripheral devices, and of course, software. Back when computers were starting to appear on office desks, who could have predicted that we would be funding companies to create social media applications for mobile phones a generation or so later?

There are clear indications that we need to continually learn how to use and shape technology if we are to be gainfully employed in occupations that challenge us and have meaning to us. As exponential growth in some factors of technology continue, it will be critical for us to keep up.

In their book, Race Against the Machine, Brynjolfsson and McAfee refer to the second half of the chessboard, a term coined by Ray Kurzweil to indicate a point where "an exponentially growing factor begins to have a significant economic impact." As the authors put it:

"Kurzweil’s point is that constant doubling, reflecting exponential growth, is deceptive because it is initially unremarkable. Exponential increases initially look a lot like standard linear ones, but they’re not. As time goes by—as we move into the second half of the chessboard—exponential growth confounds our intuition and expectations. It accelerates far past linear growth..."

As evidence of the fact that we are truly experiencing technological change that confounds us, they refer to Google's automobile driving itself, IBM's Watson consistently winning at Jeopardy and GeoFluent's ability to do real-time translation of online chat messages.

A partial answer for the extremely sluggish job growth we've seen over the past year is, I believe, the technological unemployment resulting from this exponential growth. Technological innovation is seen in many traditional industries, and in fact is responsible, according to Brynjolfsson and McAfee, for separating some of the leading companies from their competitors.

As for the increasing income disparity between the 99% and the 1%, exponential technological growth will only exacerbate this. Owners of capital, which includes corporate ownership of technology, have reaped greater profits from the explosive productivity of these non-human resources. Unless the majority of workers (by which I mean workers without significant ownership in an enterprise) can sell their skill at a rate that keeps up with the growth of technological capital, then workers will necessarily earn a smaller piece of the pie.

As a student of economics, this is how I see what is happening in our current crisis. It is not a moral judgement by any means, but represents what appears, to me, to be happening. As an experienced software engineer, I see every day who competes and am aware of those that do not, and without self-training and pro-active behavior, I see the crisis getting worse for most people.

So, it is not purely the mis-administration of public funds to prop up reckless financiers, nor the greed of the 1% that is necessarily responsible for our current economic climate. There are longer-term forces at work which require not only good stewardship from our corporate and government leaders but good stewardship by each and every person of their own career.

I started out this post by addressing the Occupy movement and I hope to have shed some light on the longer-term forces that are important when looking at cause and effect. Long-term technological progress does not explain the reckless behavior of Wall Street firms trying to make money on securities based on bad mortgages. But it does explain at least part of the increasing disparity in income we've seen in our society over the past twenty or thirty years. In the spirit of cooperation, I wonder if we, as citizens, might be able to find ways to help ourselves become better prepared for a more technologically-oriented future, while at the same time using our newly-acquired skills to monitor and police our society so that irresponsible behavior in the so-called white-collar world is more transparent and more easily deterred.

Leaving this open-ended, without answer at this point gives me an opportunity to think and write more on these possibilities. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Using Social Media to Enhance Community

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:06:00 +0000

I'm doing a new community film project entitled 'Using Social Media to Enhance Community' (until I can come up with a better name). This film will briefly explore what social media is (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, blogging, wikis) followed by interview clips, short screencasts, and some fly-on-the-wall views of at least one in-person meeting of people who are involved in social media.

Right now I'm looking for some non-technical people who would provide a balance to the tech-savvy people who I am interviewing. The focus for the interview and video with non-technical people is to explore how their reaction to using social media applications for community-building. Although the tone of this film is intended to be positive toward the use of social media for communities, hearing some of the difficulties would also be constructive.

I may also explore how social media is used in secondary or pre-secondary education, how it is perceived and used by the leaders and workers of the future, although I haven't decided if this will make it into this film.

If you are someone interested in participating in this project, to be interviewed or to recommend others, please contact me.

Social Networking, Social Business, and the Future

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 06:56:00 +0000

I'm struggling with how to take advantage as well as how to assess the utility of social networking sites and tools like Facebook, Twitter, Bebo, MySpace and even StumbleUpon. There are some obvious positive scenarios as evidenced by Beth Kanter's (and others') use of these networks to drive a fund-raising challenge like America's Giving Challenge. It is absolutely awesome that the Sharing Foundation, supporting poor children in Cambodia, was able to top the leadership chart of the forementioned Challenge mostly by the sweat and tears Beth had shed over the last few days.

But as this article points out, there has been an apparent drop in the usage of these networks and they are still looking for a raison d'etre while most of the users appear to be simply hanging out and sharing what they're currently doing.

I'm optimistic that the social networking sites represent an evolution in human interaction. We've gone from 99% of the population knowing only people living within a few miles to a world where we can instantly make friends around the world, talk to them and share one's lives, using commodity technology. All within the past couple of hundred years! It's way too early to judge the utility of the current Web 2.0 technologies except to say they're sexy, cool, fun and, for a small number of hard-working people, lucrative.

But I want to take this post in a slightly different direction. There are major developments occurring right now in technology, environmental and social systems that will have impacts on every person on this planet. The Web 2.0 phenomena is one part of the technology surge. There are also all of the creative uses of cell phone technology (for improving business communications, e.g.) and applied approaches to nanotechnology to solve problems.

In the social sphere, there is a surge of interest in eradicating extreme poverty. And one aspect of this is reflected on by Dave Richards on his blog as he breaks down what a social business is. I feel that there's a synergy between the technological developments and the social developments (whether they be the social networking web sites or social business models). Bringing these developments to fruition to solve extreme poverty is where I think we, as a unified group of people on this planet, need to be.

Wired Reading - What Fun!

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 05:54:00 +0000

With Maria studying in a paralegal program now, we have had less time together. Tonight we got out for a great budget meal at Laughing Planet and followed that with a visit to Barnes & Noble where Maria picked up some reading material (where she gets the time for leisure reading I don't know). We decided to head over to Vivace, one of our favorite coffee shops to read. I brought along a novel by James Rollins called Black Order. But after sitting down, I brought out my new phone, a TMobile Dash, aka the HTC Excalibur and browsed over to my Google Reader where I read some interesting blog entries, most notably one by Adrian Holovaty, a programmer-journalist, a citizen journalist who developed ChicagoCrime.org and EveryBlock

Reading what Adrian is doing, creating mashups that serve local communities, I had a moment where I realized that what I was doing was a completely different take on the passive art of reading. Holding a lightweight phone (with a small but very clear screen by the way) in my hand, I could absorb news or opinions from anywhere in the world instead of limiting myself to the one book, one author of a hardcopy book. Ya this is nothing new but the act of reading took on a more exciting, electric feeling for me.

I was brought a little back to earth when I then tried to write a blog entry about this topic right on the phone. Unfortunately, Blogger required me to send a message to an email address they provide, get back a code and then when I get back to my computer, go to Blogger and give it the code which it sent to my phone. Not exactly a simple write and publish, one-stop process!

Computer Instruction, high-speed access and Cambodia

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 05:08:00 +0000

I'm writing this entry as a response to Beth Kanter's challenge.

What advice would you offer to Mam Sari about incorporating computer instruction on a REALLY slow connection and with one computer connected to the Internet?

If he has time, he can prepare for the class by printing out a Google results page and then annotating with his own comments. For example, he might have (in colored ink) labels for each part of each results item. Going over these as handouts to the class will give them something to study prior to their own practice.

Perform some searches before class and use the forward and back browser buttons to shorten the wait time between pages.

Use the "wait" time effectively. This is where pre-written or printed materials are helpful. Go to Google Help (available through the About Google page) and use some of the pages, printed, as material to expand the students' understanding of what Google offers.

Are there any web resources or books that you think I should send over to him to read?

We in the developed world, have access to high-quality printers, plotters, etc. Having some color charts and handouts would be helpful. I don't know what your budget is, and if the students can read English well, but providing how-to books for the students would be great.

Dream a little dream with me, if we had a fast Internet connection, what are the possibilities?

What do the students need to be successful? Do they need money to go to school? Having access to a high-speed connection gives them the ability to participate in the person-to-person loans that are becoming more common on the Internet (e.g., fynanz). Actually, I'm not sure this requires a fast connection but it would certainly allow students to do a lot more exploration, to see how they can get additional help, even virtual tutoring.

Just today, a friend suggested that it would be cool to have a microfinance-like site similar to Kiva, which instead of providing money for a business, provides money in the form of loans for education. I think it's a great idea, although to get it to work effectively in countries like Cambodia will require some facilitative or management presence in the country. Making sure that the students have the support of their family, who may see education as a drain on their economic needs, to align students with programs and make sure the funds get to the school, etc. Sorry, I may be getting off topic a bit but the more that the everyday person in Cambodia can access the web as an extension of the market, the more likely such ventures will happen.

Community Film Production and Basic Rights Oregon

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 04:37:00 +0000

I'm taking a Field Production class from Portland Community Media and this Saturday we had our first filming session. Our class is divided into two groups, the other group is producing a short film on the pinball craze and our group is producing a film on the effects on families of the injunction on the Oregon Family Fairness Act. On Saturday we visited a family of four in Southeast Portland. Our goals were to get some interesting commentary on the effects on their lives from the two parents and to get some background filler material including their two children.

And wow, were our expectations met and far exceeded! After setting up the Sony DS250 on a tripod, doing the technical preparation (white adjustment, iris setting, audio settings), Kevin, one of our team, sat down next to the camera as the interviewer. The subjects (I don't want to reveal names here in the interest of their privacy, although you will surely be able to see them when the film is aired on local community television) were asked how they met. Let me say, that was all we had to do. These two women gave us such a spirited, interactive, friendly and intelligent story that no other questions were necessary (although we did ask a few others just to give them a break from talking).

I was so entertained by their story! Full of funny stories and poignant moments! Then they naturally gravitated to the subject of the Family Fairness Act and how the current state of the world in Oregon, that they are not officially married, that although they have had two separate wedding or union ceremonies, they are still not legally considered married. The student film team has the tough task of trying to scale this film session down to a short film. Maybe we will be able to convince our instructor, Tim, that this needs to be a longer film.

Before moving on, I can't help but comment on the interview with their two cute daughters who gave us some remarkably nice interview material.

I can't imagine anyone who sees our final film believing that these wonderful people are not a true family and deserve every single right that heterosexual couples receive for their families.

So we learned how to setup equipment, how to film, we did a little roaming camera work to pick up some interesting household views, including some home-schooling, and then we were off. Next Saturday we go to Basic Rights Oregon to do some additional interviewing.

Education for Cambodian Children

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 06:29:00 +0000

I've written about America's Giving Challenge, urging readers to support the Sharing Foundation which helps get children out of poverty. We are in the stretch run now for the challenge, with the Sharing Foundation having raised over $14,000. from over 500 donations and are in 4th place in the challenge. The top 4 charitable organizations in the challenge will receive an additional $50,000. Let's help them achieve this goal. Click on the "Give Now" button on the "Route Out of Poverty for Cambodian Children" widget on the right side of my blog.

There's Hope in their Voices

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 23:49:00 +0000

Feeling like I am rising from the ashes of this horrible cold or flu, two wonderful voices have greeted me with hope. The first was Mark Bittner in the acclaimed documentary The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill. I don't remember where I first read of Bittner and this film but the rental arrived over the past week and we decided to watch it last night. Wild Parrots was like a warm blanket and cup of (just the right temperature) herbal tea, a soothing look at how one man has found his calling in life caring for these non-native birds in a leafy hill corner of a bustling American city (San Francisco). The main characters in the film are not human (well, yes, Bittner is but he is also a co-narrator) but they nevertheless have names, like Connor, and Mingus. In his folksy voice, Bittner tells how he was introduced to the parrots, how he became so attached to some of them, and that he had names for all of them as well (at least while he was living there). But there's a point in the movie where he reflects on the whole experience and on whether he was being anthropomorphic, that really allowed us, the audience, a view into the soul of this gentle man. It was a beautiful point in the film. There is also a book by the same name. See the film as it is Bittner's voice throughout that helps carry this wonderful story.

The other voice, written not spoken in this case, is that of Andy Brouwer, an expat Brit living in Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia. I was unable to keep up my reading pace through the past week due to this cold, and Andy has a tendency to become extremely prolific in his blog postings over a short period of time. Fortunately, today I have felt well enough to flee the home for a coffee shop and get some uninterrupted reading in. I had over twenty unread entries in Andy's blog going back to December 30th, so I decided to start there. And am I happy I did. The mix of travelogue, history, humor and humanity that Andy weaves in his writings is truly remarkable. My heart was warmed by the pictures of Khmer children he met at temple visits or along the road, then it is wrenched from my chest as I observed the piles of skulls at the genocide memorial at Sala Trapeang Sva. Then the "three sreys" restored my hope and the painted pagoda at Wat Kork Ksang made me yearn to visit. I felt myself being very thankful that I had been introduced to Andy's blog (thanks Kilong) for his light-hearted as well as his serious jaunts around that beautiful country have been a joy to follow. And finally, he has recommended a book that I am looking forward to reading: The Judas Strain by James Rollins. Andy's recommendation mentions that he's a Robert Ludlum fan. I devoured the Bourne series and am looking forward to reading another author of a similar vein.

We're all sick and noplace to go!

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:08:00 +0000

Now that the holidays are over I've been looking forward to getting going on my plans for the new year. But I picked up something while waiting in the chiropractor's office on Monday, and that something has found my wife and daughter who are now feeling a lot worse that I am (so I'm the nurse today). We're trying to get better fast! Next week is the start of the school term for both of them, and I'm starting my field production class on Wednesday. Ughh, the doldrums of being sick. Just reading is exhausting!

A Plan for 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 23:30:00 +0000

I've read resolutions, wish lists, and need lists for the coming year. I'd like to put forth a plan for my next year. Thanks to Chris Brogan for the motivation to put together this simple but practical plan.

Create at least two original works for non-profits or specific causes, in the digital media space. After taking a Digital Storytelling class at Portland Community Media, I'm excited about applying my skills to help make the world a better place.

Complete a Field Production class and volunteer on two productions to develop my film-making skills. A side-goal is to enroll in yet another PCM course, just not sure what that will be right now.

Create a podcast series dedicated to technology for a better world. Technology is a broad term and in this case I want it to be since I want to be able to interview people involved in many facets of using technology to make the world better. I don't want to mention people at this point since I haven't talked to them, but some of the topics I'd like to cover include

- using mobile technology to improve the lot of people in developing countries
- the social networking sites and their usefulness for non-profits
- digital storytelling

Help the Cambodian-American Community of Oregon: this may come in the form of volunteering on an event and/or working with digital media to promote the organization.

Promote myself as an expert in using digital media and software technology to make the world a better place.

Well, that's all I've got for now. It's a manageable list and practical, just like it should be. My final, but certainly not the least, thanks go to Kilong Ung, my co-worker, friend and super inspiration for all that I do to help others. This past year Kilong and I cemented our friendship through daily walks during our weekday lunch time. I learned a lot about philanthropy and leadership from Kilong who is himself a born leader. Kilong has just stepped down after several years as President of the Cambodian-American Community of Oregon although I believe he will still be very involved in helping the new leadership. Thanks Ki, and Happy New Year to all!

Cambodian Children's Education - thank you Nhuong Son

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 20:33:00 +0000

Beth sent me a link to Nhuong Son's blog and in particular the entry about his support for the Sharing Foundation. After reading this you will see why even a little bit of aid for children in such a poor country means so much. Truly inspiring! Thanks Nhuong and Beth! If you agree, consider giving to the Sharing Foundation using the widget on the right side of my blog.

Sharing Foundation

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 00:27:00 +0000

I've added a widget on the right side of my blog (down there, see it?) for accepting donations to the Sharing Foundation which provides a lot of help for children in need in Cambodia. Whichever organization receives the largest number of unique donors will receive $50,000. as part of America's Giving Challenge.

I learned of the challenge and the Sharing Foundation from Beth Kanter's blog. Beth, who is on the Executive Board of the foundation, is a tireless advocate of the use of social media in non-profits and provides educational and consulting services as such. Her interest and dedication to the children of Cambodia is awesome.

Please consider the Sharing Foundation as you decide on your year-end (or January 2008) charitable contributions. If enough people donate, we will have helped the Sharing Foundation get an additional $50K to help Cambodian children.

Podcasting with the H2

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 23:53:00 +0000

Part of this week off I've spent researching where to host an audio podcast and playing with my new Zoom H2 mobile recorder. There are plenty of good hosting sites from what I can see but libsyn.com (Liberated Syndication) seems like a good place and it's hosting some very popular podcasts. I like their pricing: you pay for a maximum disk space usage each month starting at 100MB for $5.00 and incrementing from there. So if it looks like you're going to surpass your limit you can just upgrade another $5.00 and get a lot more space per month. Easy.

The H2 is pretty cool. Although I'm no pro when it comes to these devices, I can see that it is packed with a lot of functionality in a small package and at a good price. I recorded my voice at different settings, downloaded the wav files to my pc using the USB interface cable and listened. I'm impressed with the quality of the recording as well as microphone options: 2/4 channel stereo. I recorded to a 4GB SDHC card (that's the largest the H2 supports, but it's plenty given that it reported I had well over six hours of remaining audio space after just recording for about a minute).

So I now know that I can do either in-studio recording (that would be in my home office) or field recording. The H2 comes with a wind sock and a detachable handle for convenient interviewing. I'll have to do some practice to get the sound right, as well as brush up on journalistic interviewing skills. But the real hill to climb for podcasting is going to be getting an audience. Right now my blog is not widely read (but you, dear reader, I do thank you for your attention!) and the blog and podcast topics are not aligned with my full-time career in software engineering like some other technies I know.

But that's no reason to not do it. As one of my heroes, RFK, said

"Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope."

I would like my participation in Social Media (i.e., blogging, podcasting, social media sharing sites like FaceBook) to be used to make the world a better place, not just to have online friends and a place to go to when I'm alone in a coffee shop with my computer. I don't mean to imply that that's not okay for someone. But I've passed the half-century mark and I feel that I can more effectively use my remaining time. Ughh, that sounds gloomy, but it's not meant to.

I'm going to try to narrow the focus of my blog (maybe I'll create a separate blog for personal news of interest mostly to my family and closest friends) and align the podcast with it. So I've got to get thinking about how to do this. Any advice from readers is very welcome!

A Homecoming and a Digital Media Holiday

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 01:28:00 +0000

I'm looking forward to my time off from work after Christmas. The best part will be having my daughter (right) back with us in Portland after a semester in Quebec where she has immersed herself in the French language, both Quebecois and native French. It's a nice feeling to see your children reaching out into worldly spheres where you yourself have not been (in this case, the language immersion) but there's no substitute for a hug and a smile and hours of good conversation with them as you see them growing up in front of your eyes. Ken and Laura have given us so much to be proud of in the last few years and we look forward to celebrating the (immediate) family reunion. Laura will be graduating in June from Portland State University while Ken has just achieved second in the district in personal banking sales at Wells Fargo.

The other part of my holiday vacation will be all about digital media. As I've said in an earlier post, I completed a digital storytelling class this fall and am actively seeking out projects to practice the craft. I'm putting a proposal together to develop a story about the Hoyt Arboretum in Portland. For the past half year, as a volunteer, I have been scanning thousands of the Arboretum's photographic slides for digital storage. It's been an incredibly tedious task but I'm one to two hours from completing the project. The digital story I'd like to tell would ideally be told, in voice-over, by the staff and maybe former staff of the Arboretum.

I'm also hoping to work with some NGOs doing good work in Cambodia, as a way to continue perfecting my craft, as a way to promote their work or cause, and as my continuing education on that developing country's history and progress.

Another part of my digital media holiday will be devoted to research into setting up a podcasting program dedicated to social causes. I'd like to interview people involved in specific issues such as the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs), Cambodian development, microfinance and sustainable approaches used in developing countries. I'm hoping that I can develop an audience for such a podcast and possibly tie in an online donation process that will allow listeners to contribute to the various causes promoted by interviewees.

Stopping human trafficking

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 07:21:00 +0000

KI Media, a great blog whose subtitle is "Dedicated to publishing sensitive information about Cambodia," has posted a guest commentary by Laurence Gray, a World Vision Regional Advocacy Director, in which he points out that the Mekong region of southeast Asia "has a reputation as a hotspot for the trafficking of young people, most notoriously into the underage sex scene." The article refers to a report commissioned by World Vision and the UN Inter-Agency Project on Human Trafficking in the Greater-Mekong Sub-region (UNIAP) and called "Sex, Sun and Heritage: Tourism threats and opportunities in South East Asia." The report makes recommendations for prevention and awareness-raising campaigns, as well as recommendations for protection of children and prosecution of criminals. One recommendation was for stiff economic fines applied, for example, to bars which hire under-age girls.

Tourist dollars being spent in Cambodia and other south east Asian countries is increasing. One way that we can fight this problem is to contribute toward meaningful employment of adults in these areas. Another is to support the organizations that rehabilitate children who have suffered in human trafficking. My suggestion is that whenever you plan on vacationing in south east Asia, do some web research beforehand on organizations which you can visit and donate some of your vacation funds to their causes. It's the least we can do if we're enjoying the history, culture and natural beauty of these countries.

Of course you don't have to travel to make a donation. Two organizations I've become familiar with recently, and which I plan on supporting, are Transitions Cambodia (see my last posting), and Digital Divide Data, of which I've also recently written.

Transitions Cambodia and the film, Holly

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 01:39:00 +0000

There are over two million children being trafficked for sex around the world. Last night I saw the important film Holly along with many members and friends of the Cambodian-American Community of Oregon. It tells the story of a Vietnamese girl of around 12 years old who is sold into slavery by her family. Shes ends up in a hotel/brothel in Phnom Penh. Ron Livingston, the star of Office Space, plays an American who is disgusted when offered Holly for sex by the hotel manager. He befriends the girl and with that learns how the world of sex trafficking is ruining the lives of so many children and teenagers.

This was a well-written and directed film, the reviews of which should help to get more people into the theaters to see it. Our audience was fortunate to have Azi Ezroni, the film's producer, and James Pond, founder and Executive Director of Transitions Cambodia, available after the film to speak and answer questions. Azi told about the threats to their lives in filming this story in Cambodia and how she was detained for several days before being allowed to bring the film with her out of the country. James, who I briefly met at the Cambodia Backstage fundraiser a few months back, created Transitions Cambodia to assist victims of sex trafficking, providing counseling, a safe home, education and adult life skills training. Here is a snippet of their mission statement:

At TCI we believe that the imperative goal is not to remove a girl from one form of abuse, only to place her into a situation that will further her abuse or trauma. While shelters provide some necessary services to a small percentage of trafficking victims, it has a limited application. Research and experience has shown that young women coming from sexually exploitive situations are in need of being involved in making decisions in regard to their own futures. They need to have a broader scope of expression in their living situations, community, and family environments. We work with our clients to help them discover themselves, explore their possibilities, and begin the process of crossing from one place to a better place.

I was fortunate enough to sit next to someone who is doing some marketing work with Transitions Cambodia and I hope that, with the film and digital media education that I'm getting, I can create something of promotional value for the organization.

If you're in the Portland area, I strongly recommend you go to see Holly at the Regal Fox Tower. If you're not in this area, check out the film website for locations.

Winter Organic Farmer's Meal

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 03:47:00 +0000

Mmmm! This was probably the most satisfying vegetarian meal I've ever had. Maria made it entirely from organic produce we receive in weekly deliveries from Organics To You. Most of their produce is from local farms. In the case of this meal, all of it may be with the exception of the pinto beans and the olive oil (although both are organic). Starting from the top of the plate, we have Chiogga beets with their distinctive red and white rings, roasted red and purple potatoes, boiled acorn squash and carrots then enhanced with a brown sugar and butter glaze, kale sauteed with pinto beans and caramelized onions, and finally an artichoke. I didn't actually eat the artichoke, not my favorite vegetable, but put it on the plate for the shot.

This morning Maria said that she was thinking of making a vegetable smorgasbord but after eating it, when I asked her what she would call it, she said it is a winter farmer's meal. So there you have it. Thanks honey!

Technology and Service in Cambodia

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 04:30:00 +0000

I've been doing a lot of reading about Cambodia lately including Michael Freeman's book, various blogs and some MDG materials. Tonight I came across a growing social business named Digital Divide Data (DDD) that is set up as a 503-C in the US and as an NGO in Cambodia. DDD's mission is two-part: to deliver high-quality digitization services to clients (one of which is the Harvard Crimson newspaper, and to provide to their employees "fair wages, health care, education, and career advancement opportunities". Many of the employees, moreover, have physical challenges suffered because of land-mines, polio or other misfortunes of their poverty-striken lives in Cambodia.

I can't say enough about an organization like DDD. They not only bring technology work to a country trying to raise itself out of poverty, but they bring work to the very people who have the most difficulty finding work: the physically challenged!

Their latest newletter reports that their employment has now reached 450 (from an original 18 in 2001) with an annual budget of $1.5 million, sixty percent of which is from earned revenues with the remainder from donations. There are a lot of people in need of work in Cambodia, both in the city of Phnom Penh and in the countryside. You can participate in DDD's mission to raise up this wonderful country by helping their employees with their education. DDD has a scholarship program where an employee (referred to as an operator since they operate using computers) pays half of their educational costs and the donor pays the rest. They ask for $240. per year from a donor to cover the educational costs of the scholarship.

If you're moved by this type of investment in a country's and a person's future, go to their web site and look at some of the videos. They are moving.

The Art of Possibility

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 00:04:00 +0000

Ben and Rosamund Zander, in their book The Art of Possibility, speak about operating within the realm of possibility as opposed to constraints. It's a similar message to Frances Moore Lappe's message from her book, Getting a Grip. Kilong Ung also speaks of this in another way. The viewpoint that they all share, of abundance as opposed to scarcity and constraints, applies to how we each see ourselves in the world. Yes, there are scarce natural resources and constraints do exist on our lives. But, as the Zanders put it, there is a difference between survival and survival-thinking. The former has to do with having the necessary inputs and environment in which to survive, something that can be applied directly to poorest of the poor in this world on a daily basis. Survival-thinking, on the other hand, is how a person who is not dealing with daily survival perceives their actions and behaviors. 'I have to drive to work because of the distance I need to travel.' 'I have to continue working toward a fat retirement because otherwise I will end up losing out when the time comes to retire.' These are some examples of survival-thinking.

Rather than think that way, why not look at the possibilities we have. Sure I've got to keep working to pay my mortgage, but there are so many ways that I can help solve problems in this world.' Ok, I'm not a marketing writer so I don't have the cute phrases to catch your interest. But you get the point.

Papert-style education and locative media devices

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 23:11:00 +0000

Seymour Papert, formerly an MIT professor and now at the University of Maine, is famous for his studies and publications on enhancing students' creativity in education with the use of technology. He professes the use of constructionist learning as opposed to instructionist learning. See this Papert speech for more information.

I just came across an interesting project named Frequency1550 by Waag, an organization in the Netherlands whose original mission was

"to make new media available for groups of people that have little access to computers and internet, thus increasing their quality of living."

Frequency1550 is a mobile game uses 3G cell phones and GPS devices to transport students back to medieval Amsterdam where they compete with other students to find answers about the city in those days. Although I love the idea of putting the control in the hands of the students, this is part of the constructivist learning strategy, I was surprised that students can sabotage other students by planting bombs to go off in particular locations.

Creative Media For the Community

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 22:41:00 +0000

I'm finishing up a Digital Storytelling course at Portland Community Media this week. This course has been a gentle, but exciting, introduction to creating a story with digital images, voice over, music soundtrack and Photoshop-created graphics. Taught by a born storyteller, Tim Rooney, a staffer at PCM, the course is geared toward digital media newbies interested in learning the art of digital storytelling to tell their own personal or a community-interest story. No video is used in this course, just still images and graphics. The goal of the course is to have each student become familiar with the basics of these tools: PhotoShop, Apple's Final Cut Express and GarageBand, and to learn how to tell a simple story. My story is entitled From East to West and is about my move from the east to the west coast. From the many themes that I could have chosen, I decided to focus on my own personal feelings, in particular what may have (or not) motivated me to want to move and what places I have here in Portland that replaces some important places to me in the Boston area. It won't be a perfect project. The idea is to get your feet wet with the tools and finish the project. So Tuesday night I plan on finishing it in the three hours alloted to me during class. If it's not done in time, I hope to be able to finish it very soon, before Tim chooses the time to have the stories aired on cable tv and put on the PCM web.

I'm really stoked about this medium of communication! I've always wanted to apply myself to the creative arts, having tried drawing, watercolor painting, photography, acting and guitar. I never got enough traction with any of them. But the combination of left and right brain synergy that is required to do great digital storytelling feels just right to me. I get to be technical (I'm sure my programming will enter the fray at some time in the future of a project) and I get to apply my creative instincts.

After completing this first project I will be looking for another project to do. I might even take the other PCM digital storytelling class which includes video. As Maria embarks on her para-legal education in January, I will be embarking on my new, exciting hobby.

Now... how can I use this new found talent to help eradicate poverty, or make for better communities in the Portland area, or help reduce the effects of global warming, or get people to eat locally and organic more?

Getting a Grip on Democracy

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 04:30:00 +0000

I've been away from blogging for a couple of weeks now. The last week has been tough because of the flu which I've had since Saturday. Feeling tonight like I'm finally getting over it.

I just read Getting A Grip by Frances Moore Lappe of Small Planet Institute. It's a short work in reading but powerful and lasting in ideas. She encourages us to move from our thin democracy to a living democracy where instead of seeing issues, we see entry points. There are so many issues or problems in the world and it is easy to feel overwhelmed. Frances suggests finding entry points which can be any way for you to address one of the issues. One of her examples involves a community in Texas that was upset that local businesses were not hiring local Hispanic workers. Rather than simply protest that, the community got to the root cause and discovered that people needed training. So they started a locally-funded program to train and educate citizens for better jobs. There are so many entry points. You just have to look for them. I realized that I wanted to do more as part of my job and in reviewing an internal web site, I discovered that there is a representative from each company location on my employer's charitable giving committee. But not one from the Portland area as we were just acquired this past year. So I volunteered, was accepted onto the committee and am contributing by identifying local organizations that will be recipients of the company's charitable contributions, both in the form of direct contributions and through gift drives.

Young bicyclist killed on W. Burnside

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Fri, 12 Oct 2007 17:04:00 +0000

This is tragic. A nineteen-year-old art student, riding in a bike lane, was killed by a truck on West Burnside Street in Portland yesterday. If you've got a bike and live in the Portland area, come to the memorial ride tonight, Friday, at 6:30pm starting at the west side of the Burnside Bridge.

Solar and Sustainable Tour

noreply@blogger.com (Bob Uva) — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 20:04:00 +0000

Maria and I attended the West Linn Solar & Sustainable Tour this past Saturday even though we don't live in the town. There were two interesting presentations, one by Chris Morgan, a resident who has used photo-voltaic cells to generate electricity and heat hot water, and two people from the Clackamas River Water Providers that serves West Linn. Some of the interesting take-aways:

If you have the land, you can get some of your space and water heating done using geothermal heat, i.e., heat in the ground.

Solar electricity is a lot more affordable than it used to be. But you need to take into account the long-term payback; it is not a small investment. Chris' estimates per Kwh for solar electricity was between $7.50 and $9.00. If you use 6000 Khw per year, that is between $45,000 and $54,000. There are a number of ways to calculate the payback, but there are intangibles that go with the investment as well. As Chris put it in a handout:

"Now whenever the sun shines we notice it and smile, and as silly as it may seem, after putting in the panels we both marvel even more at all the beauties of the Earth. There is tremendous satisfaction knowing that you are living in harmony with your world..."

In the world of water, using an ultra low flow toilet can save a typical household between 8,000 and 12,000 gallons of water per year.

Take shorter showers to save water. We picked up a little conservation kit that included something called a "Shower Coach" that is a five-minute hourglass encased in a plastic molding that latches onto a shower stall. I've got my showers down from near ten minutes to five to six minutes with the help of the coach.

It's more fun doing these types of events together than solo. Maria is energized to reduce our footprint and we're talking seriously about bringing solar PV contractors in for estimates.