Seeking the Polls

New Yorkers heading to Pennsylvania battleground on election day

2004-10-25T14:21:00.000+00:00

Trying to get the word out on a massive election day action for New Yorkers to help the Pennsylvania get-out-the-vote effort.

Big event is on election day, when 20 buses will leave New York in a massive get out the vote effort. The effort represents one of the largest political mobilization of New Yorkers in history. (each bus can hold about 50 people so that's roughly 1000 new yorkers going out to PA to get out the vote!)

Buses will depart from:
- Union Square
- 34th street and 8th avenue
- 86th street and Broadway
- Off the Atlantic Avenue subway stop in Brooklyn

Departure time is set for 9:25am with a return time set for 10:30pm.

People should register beforehand either via email ( electiondaybus@citizenactiony.org ) or phone ( 212 523 0180 extension 48) before Monday 12pm.

A mixed message

2004-10-08T19:30:00.000+00:00

The democrats have been accused of flip-flopping but if you look at AMixedMessage.com, a new site, it seems that the current administration is no better. [via Metafilter]

Explain

2004-10-05T21:11:00.000+00:00

Why would Bush want to rebut Kerry's attacks without him present? Surprisingly, Bush didn't want to debate Kerry every week, an offer the democratic candidate made earlier.

Remember: VP Debate tonight 9pm

2004-10-05T21:08:00.000+00:00

Should be available on every TV network in the US. Otherwise, check Cspan for live streaming coverage over the web.

casualty count

2004-10-01T19:27:00.000+00:00

Another site with casualty counts in Iraq provides more data. Most striking is the clear numbers on coalition members' casualty counts. Also of interest is the 4 week moving average, which seems to be trending up again. Unofrtunately, numbers like that are hardly partisan (ie. numbers don't like) which means that things are much worse than Bush would like us to believe.

Good question from Centerfield: what about Osama?

2004-10-01T19:13:00.000+00:00

It seems most are now forgetting about him but Where's OSAMA? Has he become the emanuel goldstein of our times?

Debate 1 linkdump: even more

2004-10-01T19:11:00.000+00:00

This time from Allahpundit, more links. One can end up reading about the debates all weekend.

Stretching the truth but not lying.

2004-10-01T19:06:00.000+00:00

The Washington Post does a good job today of taking both candidates to task for stretching the truth, even if they didn't out and out lie.

Memo to Fox: Release the video

2004-10-01T19:00:00.000+00:00

If the following story from Talking Point Memos is true, Fox has some interesting quotes. The only way they could make it clear whether it is true or not would be to actually release video showing this to be the case.

Debates: The morning after

2004-10-01T18:55:00.000+00:00

The Moderate voice offers a good sumary of links around the blogosphere about last night's debates. Hopefully, polls will soon come out showing us how it actually played out with the electorate. At the end of the day what a few blogger say does not matter much in terms of numbers of votes.

The Internet is always full of suprise

2004-10-01T18:50:00.000+00:00

While the Washington Post reports that the governmnent has been trying to suppress distribution of bad news about the Iraqi situation, the actual reports are finding their way online.

Debates round 1

2004-10-01T18:41:00.000+00:00

Well, the first debate was last night and it looks like the agreement around the blogosphere and the punditocracy is that Kerry won this round. There is little I can add in terms of new opinion on this. Let's not forget, however, that one performance does not win an election. It is abundantly clear that Bush is a very strong speaker who had one bad performance last night. Just because Kerry did well in the first debate is no guarantee that he will do well in the next rounds.

At first glance, Kerry presented a different message than Bush. It will be interesting to see how they both react in the townhall format, which is clearly where Bush shines. Remember the 2000 debate: Bush clearly beat Gore in the town hall debate, showing that he can connect with regular people. It is very clear that Bush will win this format as it does not favor Kerry.

The next immediate debate, however, is Edwards vs. Cheney on Tuesday at CWRU. Because Cheney has been in politics for a longer time, this is one of those debates where I think we will see a potentially devastating win for the republicans. Edwards tactics may work in a court of law but Cheney knows how to run a debate, having done so on many occasion. Watch for a net-net win for republicans in that debate.

Good News in Iraq

2004-09-28T01:01:00.000+00:00

Based on my most recent assessment, the situation in Iraq was going to look grim in terms of body count. A couple of weeks ago, I was predicting 85 deaths this month. With only a 3 days to go, there are now 73 dead in Iraq in september. Refactoring, this means that the number of casualties in iraq averaged 2.7 per day in september. Granted, this is a vast increase over the 2.16 average of the previous month.

Based on a quick excel run on the numbers things don't look good:

Month	# of death	Average
March-03	59	1.903225806
April-03	92	3.066666667
May-03	31	1
June-03	34	1.133333333
July-03	42	1.35483871
August-03	37	1.193548387
September-03	33	1.1
October-03	47	1.516129032
November-03	84	2.8
December-03	49	1.580645161
January-04	43	1.387096774
February-04	31	1.107142857
March-04	42	1.35483871
April-04	129	4.3
May-04	80	2.580645161
June-04	52	1.733333333
July-04	60	1.935483871
August-04	67	2.161290323
September-04	73	2.433333333

Looks like the averages are trending up... This is pretty bad news and another sign that things in Iraq are getting worth.

Finally some real data

2004-09-27T23:57:00.000+00:00

Finally some smart polling about, wow *shock and dismay* issues.

OK, so it's overseas...

2004-09-27T23:53:00.000+00:00

but wouldn't we be shocked if the same standards were applied to the US?

The liberal media strikes again...

2004-09-27T23:50:00.000+00:00

... with news that the GOP is outsourcing work to overseas workers. Well, at least we now know where PCworld stands on the political spectrum.

More on the developing situation in Ohio

2004-09-27T23:39:00.000+00:00

According to Atrios, the situation in Ohio is not only worrisome, it may actually be in violation of overall federal law.

I would add the following comments from the most important document in the US, the constitution:

Amendment XV

Section 1.
The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.

Section 2.
The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

and of course:

Amendment XIX

The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of sex.

Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Strategy: Karl Rove in a Corner

2004-09-27T23:30:00.000+00:00

Those interested in reading about strategies in the campaign might want to read the following story from the Atlantic monthly: Karl Rove in a Corner

I need not remind readers of this blog of who Rove is. Depending on your political orientation, you might think of him as a brilliant strategist or the spawn of satan. Either way, the article provides great background on the man behind the man in the Bush campaign.

How much does that paper weight

2004-09-27T23:27:00.000+00:00

Interesting info about voting manipulation in Ohio. It is simply appaling that they would use such excuse to deny registration. This is not a partisan issue on either side. Members of both parties should be appaled. Call 614 466 3910 and voice your concern, unless you want democracy to end in Ohio.

Republicans and the politics of Fear

2004-09-24T19:35:00.000+00:00

The rethoric from Republicans seems to push the talking point of Kerry being allied with terrorists. So basically, in the Republican view, dissent is un-american and un-patriotic.

The only response one could give to something like that is one that would come from an unimpeachable american. How about Thomas Jefferson:

Dissent is the highest form of Patriotism.

Don't like Jefferson. OK... How about Ben Franklin then:

It is the first responsibility of every citizen to question authority.

... or maybe James Madison was unpatriotic:

The means of defense against foreign danger historically have become the instruments of tyranny at home.

... and it could be that the only founding father you would trust would be George Washington:

If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.

... or if you want someone that may be more contemporary, how about Teddy Roosevelt:

To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.

Conclusion: It is those that assign dissent with treason who are treasonous themselves.

Kerry dismantles Terrorist tools

2004-09-24T19:16:00.000+00:00

... while Bush Sr. opposes him for it. It's an interesting story. I wonder why there hasn't been more info available on this...

State Dept.: Al Qaeda not active in Iraq in 2001

2004-09-24T19:03:00.000+00:00

According to the State Dept, Al Qaeda was not active in Iraq in 2001. (the actual page can be seen here)

The posted date is November 10, 2001 (at the top of the page) and it lists the following countries:

Albania
Algeria
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Australia
Austria
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Belgium
Bosnia
Egypt
Eritrea
France
Germany
India
Iran
Ireland
Italy
Jordan
Kenya
Kosovo
Lebanon
Libya
Malaysia
Mauritania
Netherlands
Pakistan
Philippines
Qatar
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Switzerland
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Tunisia
Turkey
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uzbekistan
Yemen

Now that's interesting.... since the administration was saying at the same time that Iraq was a festering terrorist pool....

Attack ads from the democrats

2004-09-24T18:33:00.000+00:00

So Kerry is going on the offensive. Technically, it's an important issue to discuss but is capitalizing on a gaffe the right approach? In a world where slogan is policy, it may be but it's a little sad for our democracy that policy is all narrowed down to few words.

On the other hand, it's the kind of thing that can win. After all, the Clinton slogan was "it's the economy, stupid!"

Where's the sacrifice?

2004-09-24T16:05:00.000+00:00

While thousands loose their life in Iraq, Congress is busy dolling out tax cuts:

Congress overwhelmingly approved a 146-billion-dollar tax cut endorsed by both President George W. Bush and his rival John Kerry but criticized by some economists.

This strikes me as fiscally irresponsible, due to the fact that we are currently experiencing large deficits. In a time of war, we all have to make some sacrifices. Tax cuts are not sacrifices; they are something that can be given in times of economic prosperity and/or peace. With 146 billion dollars, we could ensure that either our troops are better equipped or work towards reducing our deficit. Tax cuts like these are simply irresponsible, as were all the rounds of tax cuts offered in the last 3 years.

Republicans no longer conservative

2004-09-24T15:56:00.000+00:00

USA Today columnist Andrew Kantor on why he's no longer a Republican:

A true Republican wouldn't think of amending the Constitution -- twice! -- to give the government more power. "Less government" means "less government." Yet that's what today's Republicans are trying to do with two separate proposals.

A true Republican would choke on the idea of giving the police not only access to our library accounts, but secret access. Yet that's what today's Republicans did with their precious Patriot Act.

A true Republican believes in fiscal responsibility, not driving the country down the biggest debt hole in history. Tax breaks on one hand and monstrous spending on the other? That's idiotic. Yet that's what today's Republicans are doing.

A true Republican wouldn't try to disenfranchise voters simply because they might not vote the way they want them to. A true Republican believes in the American system and in the right to vote. Yet today's Republicans are trying to prevent overseas voters from participating in the next election.

A true Republican wouldn't require people to sign loyalty oaths to exercise their rights. Yet today's Republican's do just that.

A true Republican wouldn't arrest people simply because they liked another candidate. Yet today's Republicans do just that.

A true Republican wouldn't think of having national ID cards, or of trying to circumvent judicial review, or of imprisoning people without access to attorneys (and without charging them with anything). Yet that's what today's Republicans are doing.

This represents an interesting conundrum. Where do true conservatives go today? In a lot of ways, it looks like the democrats are increasingly becoming the true party of conservatives, while the Republican party is becoming an extremist right-wing group. Is that assumption wrong?