sentix Economic News

Trend reversal averted!

Mon, 06 May 2013 06:30:00 +0000

The composite index for the euro zone rises for the first time after two dampeners in a row. It improves from -17.3 to -15.6 points. With this, a trend reversal to the negative, which would have formally been indicated by the third drop in a row, was averted. While the economic assessments of investors for the euro zone are stabilizing, the values for Germany worsen, albeit at a much higher level. Here, we see a convergence of investor assessments. The drop in the German composite index is solely based on the decrease in the assessment of the economic situation. The strongest improvement in the composite indices in May can be found for the US. For Japan, the development points upwards, too. The emerging markets, on the other hand, are once again considered as slightly weaker by investors. For the global aggregate, we note a small rise after two drops.

Second setback in a row for the euro zone

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 06:30:00 +0000

The composite index for the euro zone drops in April from -10.6 points to -17.3 points and stands now slightly below last December's value. While the election in Italy led to the first setback for the index in March, the Cyprus issue is, amongst others, an additional strain in April: both sub-indices, the assessment of the economic situation and the 6-month expectations drop again. Expectations are now in the neutral zone. The composite index for Germany is no longer able to keep its distance from the negative development in the euro zone, expectations drop palpably – also taking into consideration weaker assessments for Germany's export regions, especially in Asia ex Japan. The global index drops the second month in a row.

Italian elections lead to setback for the euro zone

Sun, 03 Mar 2013 19:26:54 +0000

After six consecutive rises the composite index for the euro zone falls in March from -3.9 to -10.6 points. This is its lowest reading this year, but still higher than in December. The results of the Italian elections leave negative traces in both the current assessment of the economic situation and the 6-month-expectations of investors.. From the other regions in the sentix survey there was no positive impact worth of note, either. Consequently, the index for the global aggregate recedes, too. Interestingly, once more the German composite index inches a little higher against the general trend of the month.

Euro area close to growth

Sun, 03 Feb 2013 15:51:46 +0000

The composite index for Euroland rises for the sixth time in a row to -3.9 points in February. Once again, the six month expectations of the 984 surveyed investors gain more ground than the assessment of the economic situation. They reach the highest reading since June 2007, the last month before the beginning of the financial crisis. Overall, we can note: with a composite index close to the zero mark, the euro zone economy is poised to grow again. It is almost without doubt that the composite index for the euro area will reach positive territory soon – the general dynamics are currently just too strong.

Happy New Year! Euroland caught up strongly

Mon, 07 Jan 2013 08:43:27 +0000

The composite index for Euroland shows a strong improvement in January and rises for the fifth time in a row. The rise in economic expectations is especially pronounced, rising to the highest value since February 2011. Both the assessments of the current situation and expectations of other countries and regions all point upward. The US values end comparatively weak. All in all, the beginning of the year is very strong. Thus, we celebrate both the start of the new year and the 10th birthday of the sentix economic index!

First mover up again

Sun, 09 Dec 2012 17:41:58 +0000

The composite index for the eurozone goes up to -16.8 points from -18.8 last month. This is its fourth increase in a row. The 909 surveyed investors display almost no change in their assessment of the current situation while their 6-months-expectations improve further. With the year ending, the expectations index has reached its highest reading in 2012. Outstanding increases in the economic expectations sub-indices are registered for Germany and for Japan. It is, once more, mainly institutional investors who are behind these developments.

Confidence rises again

Sun, 04 Nov 2012 14:38:05 +0000

The composite index for the euro zone rises in November for the third time in a row. This time, both the economic situation and the expectations index contribute to this development. The indices for the US and Asia ex Japan are able to gain even more than the one for the euro area. Once more, the view of the institutionals brightens more than that of private investors.

Further improved expectations signal trend reversal

Sun, 07 Oct 2012 13:17:29 +0000

The composite index for Euroland rises in October for the second time in a row. Once again, the positive development in expectations is the supporting pillar for the improvement in the composite index. Expectations have even risen for a third time in a row, signaling a trend reversal. This pattern can also be found in the Global Index. For Germany, we find a special phenomenon: the doubters are currently the institutional investors, beforehand, they were to be found amongst private investors.

Die wohlkonditionierte EZB-Bazooka betört die Anleger

Sun, 09 Sep 2012 11:20:23 +0000

Was sich letzten Monat bereits andeutete, hat sich nun bestätigt: Die Konjunkturerwartungen für Euroland drehen nach oben. Im September war die Aufwärtsbewegung aber deutlich stärker. Auch verbessern sich jetzt die Konjunkturerwartungen für alle übrigen von sentix erhobenen Länder und Regionen und lassen sogar die Gesamtindizes mit Ausnahme Japans überall steigen. Zu verdanken ist dies wohl vor allem der Europäischen Zentralbank und ihren konkretisierten Plänen zur Rettung des Euros.

Draghi turns around expectations

Sun, 05 Aug 2012 16:38:47 +0000

While the headline indices of all regions dropped last month, August brings us a slight change to the positive especially in the realm of expectations. In the global aggregate, 6-months expectations improve slightly due to index movements for the Emerging Markets and Euroland. With his energetic appearances, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, is the main driver of this development.

The Euroland-Virus has infected the globe

Mon, 09 Jul 2012 05:34:08 +0000

The development we could already foresee in the sentix data of April / May has now come to fruition. The economic weakness in Euroland is infecting the globe. All total indices for the 6 most important world regions have dropped, especially the US economy. Germany suffers the most.

Euro area turning into a global problem

Sun, 03 Jun 2012 08:53:30 +0000

The recession in Euroland is deepening. The sentix total index for the Euroland-economy has dropped for the third time in a row and has hit the lowest value since May 2009 at -28.9! Situational and expectational values are equally affected. The development in Euroland is affecting the previous growth motors more and more negatively. Germany, the USA and the global index all drop clearly. This should now challenge the central banks. Low inflation expectations open space for this.

Euro area in recession mode

Mon, 07 May 2012 05:28:43 +0000

Last month's slumps are aggravated: the sentix total index for Euroland falls strongly by 9.80 points to -24.5 points. Especially the economic situation makes no secret of the fact that investors are acting on the assumption that Euroland is heading for a pronounced recession. The German economy is trying to lift itself out of this development, but the economic expectations cannot get away from the minus signs, either. The US economy has also begun to weaken.

Question marks, again

Mon, 09 Apr 2012 07:33:36 +0000

Investors hardly got used to economic glimmers of hope when a new disappointment appeared from around the corner. In April, after three consecutive rises, the sentix economic index for Euroland slumped. Current assessment and expectations dropped in unison. Current assessment even dropped to their lowest level this year. The question marks over a recession in Euroland are mounting once more.

Recovery, even in Japan!

Sun, 04 Mar 2012 16:55:58 +0000

The spring revival in the economic data continues in March. We were able to survey a rise in the respective total indices for all world regions. This leads us to be optimistic for the upcoming publication of the OECD Leading Indicator! Even for the buffeted Euroland-region, the sentix total index rises for the third time in a row. Neither rising oil prices, unrest in the Middle-East nor the latently smoldering Euro-crisis were able to sway sentiment at the moment.

Economy continues to gain momentum

Sun, 05 Feb 2012 16:00:00 +0000

Spring stimulation in February! The global economy gains momentum. The roughly 1000 institutional and private investors surveyed by sentix consider the economic perspectives to be greatly improved. All world regions show positive signs, the improvements in Asia and Euroland are especially conspicuous.

Glimmers of hope

Sun, 08 Jan 2012 16:00:00 +0000

After the stabilization attempts of the past two months, all 6 world regions were able to improve, now. It is good to see that, in general, economic expectations improve more clearly. In the USA, the total index finally climbs into positive territory again. The same can be said for the sentix Global Aggregate indices, after 5 months in hiding.

Worries around the Euro economies just won`t subside

Sun, 04 Dec 2011 20:20:52 +0000

The Euro debt-crisis is leaving deeper and deeper tracks in the real economy. In December, the sentix economic index dropped for the fifth time in a row and is now down to -24 points. Pressure arises from a worsening situation while economic expectations remain unimpressed by the latest support operations by the central banks. It is better in the USA and Germany, but these two have not yet freed themselves of the downturn scenario.

Euroland koppelt sich negativ ab

Sun, 06 Nov 2011 20:20:52 +0000

Die globale Wirtschaft kann sich stabilisieren, Euroland kann der Grundtendenz nicht folgen. Dies ist die entscheidende Botschaft für den Monat November 2011 aus dem sentix-Datenkranz für die wichtigen Welt-Wirtschaftsregionen. Darüber kann auch nicht eine Stabilisierung in den Erwartungswerten für Euroland hinwegtäuschen, wenn diese auf niedrigem Niveau verharren, während die Beurteilung der aktuellen Lage nochmals deutlich abkippt. In der Folge sinkt der sentix Gesamtindex für Euroland um 2,7 Punkte auf -21,2 Indexpunkte, während die USA im Gesamtindex sogar um 6,50 Punkte zulegen kann.

Molltöne überwiegen nach wie vor

Sun, 09 Oct 2011 09:20:52 +0000

Auch im Oktober 2011 bleiben die konjunkturellen Vorzeichen negativ. Sowohl der Konjunkturindex für Euroland, als auch die globale Indikation, geben weiter spürbar nach. Aus Sicht der von sentix befragten, rund 1.000 Investoren bleibt die ungelöste europäische Staatsschuldenkrise und die Abschwächung des Momentums in den Emerging Markets der wesentliche Treiber dieser Entwicklung.

Der Druck bleibt im Kessel

Mon, 05 Sep 2011 09:20:52 +0000

Die globale Wirtschaft wird ihr akutes Konjunkturproblem nicht los. Die leichte Verbesserung in den Erwartungswerten der meisten Weltregionen stellt noch kein Zeichen der Besserung dar, da gleichzeitig die Lagewerte weiter abrutschen. Folgerichtig fallen die Gesamtindizes, mit Ausnahme der USA, weiter. Auffällig ist die Entwicklung in Japan.

Exodus in Europa und USA

Mon, 08 Aug 2011 09:20:52 +0000

Der Mix aus EU-Schuldenproblem, die Ohnmacht der Politik hierauf sowie die Querelen in den USA zur Anhebung der Schuldenobergrenze haben die Anleger sehr stark verunsichert und der weiteren Konjunkturentwicklung eine negative Entwicklung bescheinigt: Es geht deutlich abwärts! Die jüngsten Turbulenzen an den Kapitalmärkten dürfte diese Einschätzung nochmals beflügelt haben. Der Kursrutsch an den internationalen Börsen sowie das Downgrade der USA von S&P hinterlassen tiefe Spuren.

Die Negativ-Serie ist erst einmal gestoppt

Mon, 04 Jul 2011 08:22:41 +0000

Das Plus im sentix Konjunkturindex für Euroland von 1,8 Punkten signalisiert etwas Entspannung, nachdem der first mover für Euroland seit April 2011 stetig gefallen war. Immerhin hatte der Index innerhalb von 3 Monaten 13,60 Punkte verloren und kann nun die Negativ-Serie glücklicherweise stoppen. Sowohl die Lagekomponente, aber auch die Erwartungshaltungen können sich leicht verbessern. Dass noch keine Entwarnung ausgesprochen werden kann ...

Die Wolken verdunkeln sich weiter

Sat, 04 Jun 2011 08:22:41 +0000

Mit einem Minus von 7,4 Punkten verzeichnet der sentix Konjunkturindex für Euroland den dritten Rückgang in Folge und notiert mit einem Indexstand von 3,50 Punkten nunmehr nur noch knapp über der Nulllinie. Insbesondere der deutliche Rücksetzer in den Konjunkturerwartungen dürfte die letzten Zweifel vor einer nachhaltigen Abkühlung der Wirtschaft in Euroland beseitigt haben, nachdem sich in den sentix-Daten bereits vor 2 Monaten der „Zenit in den Konjunkturerwartungen" angedeutet hat.

Die Wachstumsmotoren stottern

Sun, 08 May 2011 08:28:37 +0000

Der von uns im letzten Monat zuerst postulierte „Zenit in den Konjunkturerwartungen" ist von anderen Indikatoren, wie dem ZEW Index oder den ifo Konjunkturerwartungen inzwischen nachvollzogen worden. Der sentix Konjunkturindex hat damit seinen Ruf als „first mover" auch bei diesem konjunkturellen Wendepunkt wieder unter Beweis gestellt. Umso spannender ist es deshalb, wie sich diese Tendenz im Mai fortgesetzt hat.

Rezession in Japan

Sat, 02 Apr 2011 08:28:37 +0000

Der Monat März war in vielerlei Hinsicht ein ereignisreicher Monat. Dabei war die Naturkatastrophe in Japan und die nachfolgende atomare Katastrophe in den Kernreaktoren von Fukushima sicher die prägendste und folgenreichste Erfahrung.