Some argue that the effects of high transportation costs will actually reverse globalization.

Globalization is reversible. Higher energy prices are impacting transport costs at an unprecedented rate. So much so, that the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today. In fact, in tariff-equivalent terms, the explosion in global transport costs has effectively offset all the trade liberalization efforts of the last three decades. Not only
does this suggest a major slowdown in the growth of world trade, but also a fundamental realignment in trade patterns.

In fact, if globalization can be reversed, the entire philosophy of business towards making it cheaper could also reverse. Consumers have become reliant on purchasing prices for the cheapest amount of money possible and business have become accustomed to providing this type of exemplary product at a low cost to them. High transportation costs threaten the very paradigm that modern business has built itself on for the last two decades.

In deed, many indications are in place that show business is adjusting to higher transportation costs by passing the price increase a long to consumers and by laying off employees. Slowed production equals higher employment, which puts a further downward pressure on consumer demand. It’s a vicious cycle.

Inflation is already high in India, in large part due to increased transportation costs as well as a price spike in many commodities.

India’s inflation accelerated more than estimated to the fastest pace in 13 years, suggesting the central bank may add to this month’s two interest rate increases.

Wholesale prices rose 11.42 percent in the week to June 14, after gaining 11.05 percent in the previous week, the government said in a statement in New Delhi today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted an 11.22 percent increase.

Central banks worldwide are considering freezing or raising interest rates in an attempt to slow inflation. But if much of the inflation is coming from increased transportation costs, it’s unlikely measures concerning interest rates will have much of an affect.

Right now, a reverse in globalization efforts, a constriction in revenues, and more expensive raw materials costs all bode poorly for business at large.

Continued from Oil - The Blood of the Earth - Historical Causes of the Oil Crisis.

The current oil crisis is based on demand and overtaxed production

The oil crisis in 1973 was a supply side problem for the United States. Now, the reasons are not so simple, ranging from supply concerns due to emerging economies, as well as terrorist troubles. So the fundamental difference now is that our current oil crisis is related to increased demand and diminished production capacity.

Current oil production doesn’t run with much spare capacity. That’s why disruptions in the petroleum distribution network seem to have such immediate impacts on pricing. Since oil is the obvious lubricant of Western Society, it’s no surprise that enemies of the West have targeted oil production as one of the main weapons against the Western Way of Life. Without cheap crude oil, our nation is in big trouble and our economy will sputter greatly. So the terrorists have aimed squarely at a target that they have little trouble hitting: our pocketbooks.

Added to the primary fact of terrorism is the gas guzzling mentality of the two emerging economies of India and China. India and China are having an old school industrial revolution in the 21st Century. Both countries are going through transportation booms, and China, Venezuela, and India are even exacerbating the problem by issuing huge gas subsidies so they can get their populations hooked on cheap gas that probably is nothing more than a pipe dream.

In 1973 the United States went past its’ peak in oil production

America went from being a net exporter of oil to a country dependent on oil in the same way a junkie needs his next fix. And one thing is starting to become clear: OPEC oil production is a big problem and no one seems capable of stepping up and meeting demand.

Soaring energy prices have already cause the governments of several Asian countries to dump subsidies for oil. But it would require the economies of Russia, Venezuela, China, and India to do the same in order for the impact to be sufficient to create a slackening of demand for the “Black Gold.”

This could happen if fuel subsidies were suddenly scrapped in developing countries and among the OPEC producers, so dousing demand. Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut energy subsidies, but China - with $1.7 trillion in foreign exchange reserves – is hardly strapped for cash. OPEC producers are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises they get richer.

Demand from the Global Village will stay up, causing prices to remain high

Without a price increase for consumers in OECD countries, there’s little chance for prices to come down on oil. If prices are $200 a barrel with oil at peak production, one can only imagine how high the prices will soar if production begins to decline, as the GAO expects it to.

Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil. Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation.

With peak oil seemingly inevitable, a transfer of wealth to oil producing nations is coming at an unexpectedly fast rate. This causes all variety of political issues, due to the fact that so many of “The West’s” traditional enemies control a large portion of the supply of oil. This problem is not being ignored by leaders, who seem to be picking up the intensity of the energy debate. With Western democracies buying so much oil and seemingly being poised to run out, a technological innovation (something that has always bailed out America in the past), seems like a logical solution to solve the oil crisis in one fell swoop.

Continued from Oil - The Blood of the Earth - Part Two - The Historical Dominance of Oil. Continued in Oil - Blood of the Earth - Part Four - The Effect of High Oil Prices on Business. This is part three of Oil - Blood of the Earth.

Without oil there would be no United States or modern culture

To examine the history of oil use in the United States, you need look no further than to the story of John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil. From the time that oil was first pumped out of the Drake Well in Pennsylvania, the search for, and exploitation of oil has been a consuming passion as well as a profitable pastime for many.

No one was better at making money from oil than John D. Rockefeller and his Standard Oil Company. He was ruthless in his quest to monopolize the industry, and in so doing, invented modern business. Rockefeller’s actions with Standard Oil, although considered unethical or even illegal by many, became the blueprints upon which multi-national corporations were designed.

Oil became indispensable for both consumers and business, who relied on it nearly exclusively for transportation. As oil became readily available, consumers were able move further away from their jobs than ever before, and interstate commerce boomed. People quickly became accustomed to the additional freedom they received from having an automobile, and the increase in consumer choice that resulted from businesses being able to geographically expand.

Businesses and consumers became so addicted to cheap oil, that by 1973, when a crisis threatened that cheap oil supply for the first time, it created pandemonium in the public markets. The first actual gas crises was a preview for what will undoubtedly happen if oil goes from abundance to scarcity.

Oil is an absolute necessity for the following segments of society:

1. Business
2. Consumers
3. Government
4. Military

In essence, everyone needs oil. In a world of diminishing oil, there would be increased competition for the remaining resources. On the above list, it’s easy to imagine that consumers would be on the short end of the stick in a situation of chronic oil shortages.

The modern United States, and all of the other countries around the world basing their economies on the “American Model” require increased consumption of resources to continue to flourish, and the increased consumption of petroleum is the main way to sustain that growth. With diminished, or even non-existent oil resources, none of these societies could easily continue their normal routines.

Running out of our primary transportation fuel is the single largest issue facing our society. And experts agree, that we need a solution long before we run out. In the next articles, we’ll examine possible solutions.

Continued from: Oil - The Blood of the Earth - Part One - Overview. Continued in Oil - The Blood of the Earth - Part Three - The Historical Causes of the Oil Crisis.

Ancient Warriors and modern man collide as these warriors take aim at photographers

When confronted, the tribe covered in red and black pigment shot arrows at the plane that photographed them.

Like the Arawak, this tribe is threatened (in more ways than one) by the arrival of modern man. These remote tribes are already threatened by illegal logging and deforestation taking place in the Amazon basin, ruining their habitat.

Further exposure to people ‘not of the jungle’ is likely to mean the end for this tribe, as they haven’t been exposed to diseases of today’s society. Through their interconnection with the planet, they’ve likely built up immunities (and possibly cures) for diseases such as malaria and illnesses prone to the tribe.

Miriam Ross with the Indian rights group Survival International said:

“First contact is often completely catastrophic for ‘uncontacted’ tribes. It’s not unusual for 50 percent of the tribe to die in months after first contact. They don’t generally have immunity to diseases common to outside society. Colds and flu that aren’t usually fatal to us can completely wipe them out.”

Despite our curiosity, we should respect these people’s right to live in a world that they’ve existed and thrived in for the test of time. We have no right to kill them off for the pursuit of more logs and eventual destruction of ALL of our environment.

We do so at our own peril.

Experts fear that oil has peaked

Now there’s a great fear that Oil is running out. The “American Way of Life” worked so well in the United States that nation’s all over the world are emulating the behavior of the Americans, right down to basing their entire engines of economic development on a steady supply of petroleum. Cheap oil is what every nation in the world needs in order to establish and nurture their burgeoning middle classes. And herein lies the trouble.

Demand for Oil has never been higher. More and more motorists his the streets every day, and their demand for Oil is insatiable. But Oil exploration has been stagnant for decades, meaning current oil fields are being depleted, with no guaranteed means of finding replacement oil. Pessimistic experts insist that Peak Oil has already occured.

We already have some experience with just what happens when a nation runs out of oil. The United States was the largest supplier of Oil up until 1970, due to vast reserves that had been exploited in Texas. Many citizens of Texas assumed Oil could never run out, but when it abruptly did, it caused immediate economic chaos. This lesson is fresh enough in the minds of many experts, that it’s tough to minimize the danger facing our civilization if we do run out of oil, and don’t have an alternative in place before that happens. If we sit here, flat footed, waiting to react, it will be much too late to set up the types of alternative renewable energy sources that can replace the ubiquitous Black Gold we’ve all become addicted to.

In this series, “Oil - Blood of the Earth”, we plan on taking an in-depth look at such issues as:

1. The Historical Dominance of Oil
2. The historical causes of the current Oil crisis
3. Possible solutions that have been proposed
4. The effect of Oil on the economy
5. How Oil and War are close relatives
6. Why Business is ignoring the problem
7. Can our politicians possibly save the day?
8. How much does the average citizen know about this crisis?

Right now, it’s tough to be optimistic about a world without Oil. Society has become so dependent on oil, that you have to question how troublesome a change to the existing structure of people’s lives would be. This series of articles hopes to take a balanced look at this complex subject.

Continued in: Oil - Blood of the Earth - Part Two - The Historical Dominance of Oil

Who loves cluster bombs?

The title of this post is a statement I truly can’t picture any sane and caring modern person making. Only a military person or war profiteer could possibly say the love cluster bombs and what they do to countries. Long after you declare peace with an enemy, the cluster bombs you leave lying around the country blow up innocent people. And any country that has a casual attitude about maiming non-combatants once a military conflict is over will surely lose the respect of any sane citizens.

So why are cluster bombs still around?

Cluster bombs are still here because they’re effective. Although in many sense, they represent a rather primitive technology, the technique of cluster bombing has been used to much effect in most major conflicts. The military of the United States views cluster bombing as an important technique.

Military officials like them because they leave a large “footprint” and are highly versatile, if not accurate. “There is some category of targets where cluster bombs are the preferred ammunition,” Pike says. For example, he says, they are highly effective against soft, or unarmored, targets like airfields or an infantry battalion walking down the road. Dropping one 1,000-pound bomb may not find enemies in a foxhole, says Ivan Oelrich, vice president of the Strategic Security Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “But if I drop a thousand one-pound bombs,” he says, “a certain fraction will find people in a foxhole. It’s many times more effective to take my explosive package and divide it up into smaller subdivisions.”

Experts estimate that there’s a stockpile of 4 billion cluster bombs in the world, mostly in the hands of the U.S., China, and Russia.

Cluster bomb use has risen in the last 15 years, and the use of the weapons in the 2006 conflict between Hamas and Israel in Lebanon seems to have galvanized a number of nations against their use. Other weapons treaties have had a positive effect for human rights, so a number of groups are quite happy about the results of the recent accord. But many experts recognize the need to go much further when it comes to banning certain munitions.

…..to be continued…..

]]> http://www.shiftwits.com/im-a-huge-fan-of-cluster-bombs-part-one/feed/ http://www.shiftwits.com/the-effects-of-high-gas-prices/ http://www.shiftwits.com/the-effects-of-high-gas-prices/#comments Thu, 29 May 2008 21:45:24 +0000 Darren http://www.shiftwits.com/?p=9 For Americans, cheap energy prices have been mostly a fact of life. For years, there appeared to be no slow down for auto makers who kept on making cars (and then trucks and SUVs) bigger and bigger, with more horsepower than needed, with no thought to what would happen if gas prices were to rise sharply. Right now, a few years ago seem like much simpler times, when you consider just how expensive gas has become for many Americans.

High gas prices are causing American drivers to drive less

Gasoline started breaking records in 2007. That year, for the first time in U.S history, Americans drove less than the year before. The decline wasn’t huge at 3.00 trillion miles from 3.01 trillion miles in 2006. However, it represented the first paradigm shift from prior years which always saw more consumption than the year before. And this trend hasn’t stopped in 2008.

In March of 2008, Americans drove a full 11 trillion miles less than they did in March of 2007. With gas at $4.00 per gallon, it appears the pain has become too great for many Americans to continue to fuel up.

And what further effect has been felt from the high gas prices? Americans have lost their appetites for large cars and have gained a taste for hybrids and energy efficient vehicles. GM and Ford are both mulling over severe cuts in Truck and SUV production as less people are thinking big than ever before.

Furthermore, the high cost of gas is felt by just about everyone and every sector. Higher fuel costs add to the prices of other items, causing a double-whammy effect on people’s budgets. As gas prices rise, people are cutting back elsewhere.

Does the cloud of high gas prices contain a silver lining?

Generally when things seem as bleak as they do with high gas prices, it’s tough to come up with the positives. But in the case of high gas prices, it’s exciting to think that American consumerism is probably at a turning point as people are generally spooked over a commodity they rely on costing so much money.

The only time a paradigm shift can occur is when the pain of doing things the same way as usual becomes to great. And that’s the point the country is at when it comes to high gas prices. People don’t want to, or can’t, allow themselves to pay any more money for fuel and it’s causing them to educate themselves on incredibly important issues that are facing us all.

Right now the rush is on to satisfy consumers by offering more hybrid and eco friendly cars, as well as to really come up with ideas that would move the country away from the potentially devastating addiction to foreign oil. Without major pain for Joe Consumer, it’s doubtful such interest would have manifested in such a short time. But the high gas prices are here and they appear to be staying.

For all of us, we’ll need to decide how we’ll deal with these skyrocketing prices. As more and more of us choose to drive less, the drop in demand should strongly signal to oil speculators that the bull run is over. Hopefully once the gas prices do return to a lower level (if they do), the painful lesson of the last few years will be learned.

]]> http://www.shiftwits.com/the-effects-of-high-gas-prices/feed/ http://www.shiftwits.com/pros-and-cons-of-human-cloning/ http://www.shiftwits.com/pros-and-cons-of-human-cloning/#comments Wed, 28 May 2008 21:08:32 +0000 Darren http://www.shiftwits.com/?p=8 Human Cloning is something the world needs to be ready for. Ever since Dolly the Sheep was first cloned in 1997, the concept of human clones, and what that would mean to society have been debated many times. The area of human cloning is one that is rife with the opportunity for abuse, so it has been taken very seriously by leaders in business, government, and religion.

The United States was quick to act, banning all human cloning with H.R. 2505 - Human Cloning Prohibition Act of 2001.

“The Administration unequivocally is opposed to the cloning of human beings either for reproduction or for research. The moral and ethical issues posed by human cloning are profound and cannot be ignored in the quest for scientific discovery.”

Let’s take a look at the Pros and Cons of Human Cloning

Let’s look at the Cons - Disadvantages of human cloning

1) No free will for the clone is the number one disadvantage of human cloning. A human clone will not ask to be born. His existence will be because someone else decided to “make him” and bring him into the world. Effectively this puts the person who cloned the clone into a position of God-like power.

2) Human cloning would be an obvious source of “slave labor” if allowed unchecked.

3) There is no guarantee that cloning is safe, even for the clones. Scientists don’t know how long clones will live or how productive their lives will be.

4) “It’s hard out here for a clone.” Life for clones won’t be easy. They’ll face routine discrimination from those non-cloned humans who feel threatened by their existence.

5) The clones themselves will be confused on issues of love and belonging. Clones might very well be emotional wrecks upon learning of their Genesis.

6) The Justice System will need an overhaul. Imagine how many people will have the same fingerprints.

7) Humans and/or body parts could become commodities. Clone farms would arise to harvest organs and worse.

The implications for the abuse of clones is literally astounding. There would be no realistic way to give “researchers” this much control over human life. The commodification of humanity alone is enough to concern anyone who’s even remotely interested in the issue.

Let’s look at the Pros - Advantages of human cloning

The list for pros is going to be a bit shorter. The main areas where human cloning would excel would be in research of medical conditions. The information available from cloning could theoretically open the key to defeat disease, and for this reason alone, many researchers will want to experiment with cloning. The potential Pros are huge, but only if the Cons can be dealt with in an effective manner.

The issue of human cloning promises to rage on. The stakes are high, and the arguments are complex. What roles human cloning plays in our future remains to be seen.

]]> http://www.shiftwits.com/pros-and-cons-of-human-cloning/feed/ http://www.shiftwits.com/sharon-stone-the-dalai-lama-and-the-karma-of-earthquakes/ http://www.shiftwits.com/sharon-stone-the-dalai-lama-and-the-karma-of-earthquakes/#comments Mon, 26 May 2008 17:08:18 +0000 Darren http://www.shiftwits.com/?p=7 An unfortunate byproduct of celebrity is that when someone famous opens their mouth, people tend to listen. Worse, they love to place particular emphasis on what the famed person says, as if their fame has somehow made their words more astute. Sharon Stone was relaxing at the Cannes Film Festival when a reporter asked her about the devastating earthquakes that have hit China.

What tumbles from her mouth is a strange, tangential rant, wherein she exposes for her insensitivity for all to see. It turns, out, you see, that the victims of the earthquake are suffering at the hands of Almighty Karma.

“Well you know it was very interesting because at first, you know, I am not happy about the ways the Chinese were treating the Tibetans because I don’t think anyone should be unkind to anyone else. And so I have been very concerned about how to think and what to do about that because I don’t like THAT, ” said Stone.

“And I had been this, you know, concerned about, oh how should we deal with the Olympics because they are not being nice to the Dalai Lama, who is a good friend of mine?,” she continued.

“And all these earthquake and stuff happened and I thought: IS THAT KARMA? When you are not nice that bad things happen to you.”

I’ll answer the question for Miss Stone. No, dumbass, that is not Karma. People getting hit by an earthquake is a tragic accident.

Karma is a bit more complicated, and thankfully, selective than that.

“The philosophical explanation of karma can differ slightly between traditions, but the general concept is basically the same. Through the law of karma, the effects of all deeds actively create past, present, and future experiences, thus making one responsible for one’s own life, and the pain and joy it brings to him/her and others. The results or ‘fruits’ of actions are called karma-phala. In religions that incorporate reincarnation, karma extends through one’s present life and all past and future lives as well.” - WikiPedia

So, no, Sharon, I just don’t see how it would apply. I’m not sure how much emphasis people are putting on the comments from Sharon Stone today, but I really hope it’s minimal. The woman is a complete dolt. She should learn to say merely “I don’t know” or “I’ll have to check” when she’s asked difficult questions she doesn’t have the answer for. But, like most celebrities, she never will.

Hopefully her “good friend” the Dalai Lama will go over the fine points of Karma the next time the two share some face time.

]]> http://www.shiftwits.com/sharon-stone-the-dalai-lama-and-the-karma-of-earthquakes/feed/ http://www.shiftwits.com/remember-the-arawak/ http://www.shiftwits.com/remember-the-arawak/#comments Tue, 20 May 2008 19:39:25 +0000 Darren http://www.shiftwits.com/?p=5 If you can’t immediately think of who the Arawak were, you aren’t alone. The Arawak are a people who are long gone, and nearly forgotten in most parts of the world. Once they thrived, living in a land something quite like Paradise. Their happy lives were shattered by the arrival of virulent foreigners who foisted their own values upon the innocent tribe.

At one time the Arawak dominated the Caribbean Archipelago. Now extinct, there’s an important lesson we can learn from them. If an entire culture can be wiped out so easily and casually, what would prevent it from happening again and again?

The Arawak were wiped out by the diseases brought to them by the Europeans. They had no immunity, because they’d never experienced the misery of the diseases that were common among their conquerors. Again, their basic purity seemed to work against them in an exchange against people who believed in organized cruelty.

Who are the Arawak of our day? That’s the question that we should try and have an answer for. Cultural genocide has been carried out so many times by so many disparate groups of people that it isn’t hard to think of such an act as “human nature”. If we don’t guard against the type of sentiment that wells up into oppressive hatred, we are in constant danger of losing another culture in much the same way as we’ve lost the lessons of the Arawak.

Indifference is the enemy of the modern person. We might be more plugged in than ever before, but that doesn’t eliminate the feeling of isolation many have. If our indifference becomes too profound, it could lead to a lack of caring that becomes terminal.

When such cynicism threatens to take over, we can step back and remember the Arawak. And call up the stark fact that none of them exist today. The Arawak once thrived but are now basically forgotten. Is this the fate for any more of Earth’s children?

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