tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21546766575229754382024-09-07T14:27:41.028-07:00Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-57179423367256925602012-01-07T15:36:00.000-08:002012-01-07T15:37:08.106-08:00<div>These charts are updated monthly....</div><div><br /></div>Aggressive allocation:<br /><div><br /><img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&oid=7&zx=9m2gw6yu0e6j" /><br /></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>Moderate allocation:</div><br /><div><br /><img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&oid=6&zx=8gcgwj6llloc" /><br /></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-45215759033165793932011-11-06T09:56:00.000-08:002011-11-06T10:00:33.710-08:00<div>These charts are updated monthly....</div><div><br /></div>Aggressive allocation:<br /><div><br /><img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&oid=5&zx=puzflzx5hpgj" /><br /></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>Moderate allocation:</div><br /><div><br /><img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&oid=4&zx=hwnoo097juas" /><br /></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-74460592264212929512011-04-16T18:54:00.000-07:002011-04-16T19:04:40.781-07:00<span><div><br /></div></span><div><div><div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Allocation for April:</span><br />Stocks: 35%<br />Bonds: 65%<br /><a href="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177"></a><div><br /></div><div><img src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=4&amp;zx=6tigj3rwv53o" /></div></div></div></div><div><br /></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-91098171483467553912010-07-16T08:42:00.000-07:002010-07-16T08:44:22.698-07:00<span style="font-weight:bold;"><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;">Nothing changed in June. Markets appear risky.</span></div><div><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br /></span></div>Positive factors:</span><br />None<br /><br /><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Neutral factors:</span><br /><div>Long term trend (within 8% of 200 day)<br /><div>Market valuations</div><div>Sentiment</div><div><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Negative factors:</span><br />Underlying technical strength</div><div>'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Allocation for July:</span><br />Stocks: 15%<br />Bonds: 85%<br /><a href="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177"></a><div><br /></div><div><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177" /></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-76047245307724601752010-07-16T08:40:00.000-07:002010-07-16T08:44:37.047-07:00<div>Nothing changed in June. Underlying technical strength is negative and sentiment/valuations are neutral.</div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Positive factors:</span><br />None<br /><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Neutral factors:</span></div><div>Long term trend</div><div>Market valuations</div><div>Sentiment</div><div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Negative factors:</span><br />Underlying technical strength</div><div>'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Allocation for July:</span><br />Stocks: 25%<br />Bonds: 75%</div><div><br /></div><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=2&amp;v=1270848666077" />Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-12305985263212673782010-06-02T16:18:00.000-07:002010-06-02T18:21:45.789-07:00<div>To my surprise, many indicators are stuck in the middle and smart money is staying away from being allocated to stocks aggressively. This is the lowest stock allocation reading so far. High VIX seems to be throwing a lot of smart money investors to the sidelines. Many intermediate term breadth indicators have deteriorated in the month of May.</div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Positive factors:</span><br />None<br /><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Neutral factors:</span></div><div>Long term trend</div><div>Market valuations</div><div>Sentiment</div><div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Negative factors:</span><br />Underlying technical strength</div><div>'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Allocation for June:</span><br />Stocks: 25%<br />Bonds: 75%</div><div><br /></div><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=2&amp;v=1270848666077" />Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-55035866217431743312010-06-02T15:16:00.000-07:002010-06-02T18:22:39.601-07:00<span style="font-weight:bold;"><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;">To my surprise, many indicators are stuck in the middle and smart money is staying away from being allocated to stocks aggressively. This is the lowest stock allocation reading so far. High VIX seems to be throwing a lot of smart money investors to the sidelines. Many intermediate term breadth indicators have deteriorated in the month of May.</span></div><div><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br /></span></div>Positive factors:</span><br />None<br /><br /><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Neutral factors:</span><br /><div>Long term trend (within stone throwing distance of 200 day)<br /><div>Market valuations</div><div>Sentiment</div><div><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Negative factors:</span><br />Underlying technical strength</div><div>'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Allocation for June:</span><br />Stocks: 15%<br />Bonds: 85%<br /><a href="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177"></a><div><br /></div><div><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177" /></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-21895516262895500852010-05-01T07:25:00.000-07:002010-06-02T18:54:16.237-07:00<div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Positive factors:</span><br />Long term trend<br /><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Neutral factors:</span></div><div>Underlying technical strength</div><div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Negative factors:</span><br />Market valuations<br />Sentiment<br />'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-weight: bold; ">Allocation for May:</span><br />Stocks: 35%<br />Bonds: 65%</div><div><br /></div><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=2&amp;v=1270848666077" />Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-56485774415143952122010-05-01T07:21:00.000-07:002010-06-02T18:55:18.717-07:00<span style="font-weight:bold;">Positive factors:</span><br />Long term trend<br /><br /><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Neutral factors:</span><br /><div>Underlying technical strength</div><div><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Negative factors:</span><br />Market valuations<br />Sentiment<br />'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Allocation for May:</span><br />Stocks: 20%<br />Bonds: 80%<br /><a href="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177"></a><div><br /></div><div><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&amp;oid=1&amp;v=1270848273177" /></div><div><br /></div></div></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-41826584694689667652010-04-09T10:41:00.000-07:002010-04-09T14:31:41.900-07:00Aggressive allocation looks at underlying technical strength, sentiment, long term trend, stock market valuations and how 'ahead of the curve' investors are positioned to calculate portfolio allocation.<br /><br />It gives more weight to technicals and when things are lined up well, the stock allocation can hit 100%<br /><br />I will list positive and negative contributors to aggressive allocation for the month of April.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Positive factors:</span><br />Underlying technical strength<br />Long term trend<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Negative factors:</span><br />Market valuations<br />Sentiment<br />'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Allocation for April:</span><br />Stocks: 55%<br />Bonds: 45%<br /><br />For reference, moderate stock allocation for April is only 35%.<br /><br /><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&oid=2&v=1270848666077" />Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-34342381983957448272010-04-09T10:21:00.000-07:002010-04-09T14:30:44.172-07:00Moderate allocation looks at stock market valuations, underlying technical strength, sentiment, long term trend and how 'ahead of the curve' investors are positioned to calculate portfolio allocation.<br /><br />I will list positive and negative contributors to stock allocation for the month of April.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Positive factors:</span><br />Underlying technical strength<br />Long term trend<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Negative factors:</span><br />Market valuations<br />Sentiment<br />'Ahead of curve' investor positioning<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Allocation for April:</span><br />Stocks: 35%<br />Bonds: 65%<br /><br />In coming months, the stock and bond allocation will be assigned to various sectors and classes of the market subject to well defined criteria.<br /><br /><img src="https://spreadsheets1.google.com/oimg?key=0ApFtAwAqvfqBdERqQXJMMzBKbURTaVhyR3lkR2Rkdmc&oid=1&v=1270848273177" />Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2154676657522975438.post-91057226080539453162010-03-27T09:20:00.000-07:002010-03-27T09:47:26.747-07:00<font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana">We have money that needs to be invested and there are many ways it can get allocated. It is proven that the best investment returns happen with correct asset allocation.</font><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana"><br /></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana">Let us get started with simple asset allocator.</font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana"><br /></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana">Stocks beat returns of all other asset classes but only over long periods of time. Some times, it is longer than our horizons allow (like 2 decades, 3 decades). </font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana">Stocks give the best returns when purchased at low valuations. Stocks give the best returns when we don't follow the herd.</font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana"><br /></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana">Our age determines how much we can allocate to bonds. This is done to ensure we cut exposure to risk as time is not on our side.</font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana"><br /></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" face="verdana">My effort on this blog is to show monthly stock allocation for moderate and aggressive investor. I would also use this technique for my investments, so I can see how this works for the next decade. If things go well, may be this allows a lot of small investors to benefit in coming decades. If it doesn't, we can conclude that simple or complex, this is a game that chooses winners and losers randomly.</font></div>Small fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02421340997838609525noreply@blogger.com0