Simply Palaver

Metal Pens?

2010-09-16T17:29:00.004-04:00

Could be cool. Don't know about the lead in the tip though.

Regardless, I'd like to see and use one before I plunk down the money to buy it.

Rick Lazio... loses?

2010-09-15T12:10:00.002-04:00

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ho, ho, ho, ho, hee, hee, hee, hee.

It's too funny. I don't know why I dislike Lazio so much, but I do. I laughed my ass off when I heard he was going to run against Cuomo, who else would you want to go against Cuomo, but NY's lovable loser?

How was I supposed to know that Lazio wouldn't even get that far?

Mr. Paladino became one of the first Tea Party candidates to win a Republican primary for governor, in a state where the Republican Party has historically succeeded by choosing moderates.
The result was a potentially destabilizing blow for New York Republicans. It put at the top of the party’s ticket a volatile newcomer who has forwarded e-mails to friends containing racist jokes and pornographic images, espoused turning prisons into dormitories where welfare recipients could be given classes on hygiene, and defended an ally’s comparison of the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver, who is Jewish, to “an Antichrist or a Hitler.”
Yet Mr. Paladino, 64, energized Tea Party advocates and social conservatives with white-hot rhetoric and a damn-the-establishment attitude, promising to “take a baseball bat to Albany” to dislodge the state’s entrenched political class. He also outspent Mr. Lazio, pouring more than $3 million of his fortune into the race, while Mr. Lazio spent just over $2 million.

Yep, Lazio lost to a guy who, in NY, defended someone who compared Sheldon Silver to Hitler. That takes some work.

The only downside is that Paladino may actually be a tougher candidate for Cuomo to run against than Lazio would have been. Shit, he can't possibly be easier than Lazio, can he? Buh, bye, Rick, perhaps JPMC still has your EVP office empty.

Go Gail!

2010-09-09T11:07:00.002-04:00

Gail Collins nails it, again:

A minister in Gainesville, Fla., has created an international uproar by vowing to burn the Koran on Sept. 11. This is under the theory that the best way to honor Americans who died at the hands of religious extremists is to do something that is both religious and extreme.
...
When this sort of thing happens, it is important to remember that about 5 percent of our population is and always will be totally crazy. I don’t mean mentally ill. According to the National Institute for Mental Health, 26 percent of American adults suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in any given year.
So, basically, that’s just normal life. I mean crazy in the sense of “Thinks it is a good plan to joke with the flight attendant about seeing a bomb in the restroom.”
There is nothing you can do about the crazy 5 percent except ask the police to keep an eye on them during large public events, where they sometimes appear carrying machine guns just to make a political point about the Second Amendment. And, in situations like a Koran-burning, make it clear that the rest of us disagree.
...
So far, the people lining up to denounce the burning of the Koran include the pope, Gen. David Petraeus and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, Haley Barbour, theMississippi governor and would-be presidential contender, stepped up to the plate. “I don’t think there is any excuse for it,” said Barbour at a breakfast sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor.
Unfortunately, Barbour followed up his bow to tolerance by suggesting that the public’s confusion over Barack Obama’s religion is because of the fact that “this is a president that we know less about than any other president in history.” The governor claimed that Americans had been particularly deprived of information on Obama’s youth, while they knew a great deal about the formative years of the other chief executives all the way back to the way the youthful George Washington "chopped down a cherry tree.”
Let us reconsider the above paragraph in light of the fact that while Obama wrote an entire book about his childhood, Washington never chopped down the cherry tree.

Tech sector hiring and outsourcing

2010-09-08T13:52:00.003-04:00

Interesting article in the NY Times about the tech sector (and outsourcing):

The chief hurdles to more robust technology hiring appear to be increasing automation and the addition of highly skilled labor overseas. The result is a mismatch of skill levels here at home: not enough workers with the cutting-edge skills coveted by tech firms, and too many people with abilities that can be duplicated offshore at lower cost.
That’s a familiar situation to many out-of-work software engineers, whose skills start depreciating almost as soon as they are laid off, given the dynamism of the industry.

But there's more to it than just lower labor costs, the actual markets are shifting too. Overseas markets are now emerging as sales markets themselves, not simply pools of cheap labor that can be tapped into:

And increasingly, these new, lower-cost research centers, while perhaps initially intended to adapt products for local use, are becoming sources of innovation themselves. “There’s been this assumption that there’s a global hierarchy of work, that all the high-end service work, knowledge work, R.&D. work would stay in U.S., and that all the lower-end work would be transferred to emerging markets,” said Hal Salzman, a public policy professor at Rutgers and a senior faculty fellow at Heldrich Center for Workforce Development.
“That hierarchy has been upset, to say the least,” he said. “More and more of the innovation is coming out of the emerging markets, as part of this bottom-up push.”

So, what to do?

The experience of Ms. Mann and others like her suggests that the technology industry may not be the savior of the American job market and a magic bullet for a moribund economy — even though the Obama administration has called for a revival of math and science training and emphasized the need for American companies to take the lead in fields like clean energy.
Instead, some economists and policy makers are looking to health care to lead an employment surge. They point to the field’s growing demand for new services, the need for physical proximity for many patient procedures, and a bureaucracy that entails layer upon layer of jobs.

Not too sure I agree that health care is a good field because of the bureaucracy, after all at some point that will likely be competed away too. However, I do think that location-dependent services, and those requiring physical proximity are a place to focus on for future development.

More thoughts on this at some point in the near future.

This is frustrating

2010-08-16T07:44:00.002-04:00

From BLS:

Hires: In June, the hires rate was essentially unchanged for total nonfarm at3.3 percent. There were 4.3 million hires in June for total nonfarm,398,000 (10 percent) higher than its most recent trough in June 2009. Hires remain below the 5.0 million hires in December 2007 when the recession began. The hires rate did not increase in June for any industry or region; the rate fell in government and in the South region.
...
The layoffs and discharges component of total separations is seasonally adjusted at the total nonfarm, total private, and government levels. The layoffs and discharges rate was essentially unchanged in June for total nonfarm and total private but increased for government.
...
In June,there were 387,000 other separations for total nonfarm, 258,000 for total private, and 129,000 for government. Compared to June 2009, the number of other separations was little changed for total nonfarm and total private but increased for government. The rise in government other separations is due to state and local government where other separations rose from 82,000 in June2009 to 123,000 in June 2010.
...
In June 2010, the proportion of quits was 45 percent and the proportion of layoffs and discharges was 47 percent for total nonfarm.For total private, the proportions were relatively steady in June at48 percent quits and 44 percent layoffs and discharges. In contrast,the proportion of quits in government declined from 31 percent in May to 23 percent in June, and the proportion of layoffs increased from 51percent in May to 63 percent in June as temporary Census 2010 workers completed their work.
...
Net Change in Employment
Over the 12 months ending in June, hires totaled 49.8 million and separations totaled 50.0 million, yielding a net employment loss of 0.2 million.

In a time when the job market is really struggling it's frustrating to me that government is a drag on employment. There should be a way to keep these people employed until things start really gaining traction again in the private sector.

Big government socialism this is not.

A year ago

2010-08-07T23:26:00.000-04:00

I said this:

He is, after all, the Chair of Ways and Means which oversees the US Tax Code. He should resign in shame. He should surrender his Chair at the very least.

Interesting

2010-08-07T22:14:00.002-04:00

I saw a commercial last night for the new Buick Regal, the new, German-designed Buick Regal. How far has the US car industry fallen when Buick, one of the queens of the "Buy American" movement is being sold as German-designed?

I get that they are trying to revamp the brand and make it more sporty, etc. but I was shocked by this leap.

Jobs for July - not good

2010-08-06T16:26:00.003-04:00

From where I go for most of this, Calculated Risk:

Ex-Census hiring, the economy added 12,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.5 percent... This is a very weak report, especially considering the downward revision to June. The participation rate declined again, and that is why the unemployment rate was steady - and that is bad news.

I don't know where the growth is going to come from. It now appears that Krugman was right and the initial stimulus was too small, and there won't be any second bite of the apple for Obama and the Dems - there is no way that Republicans are going to let them pass any more spending bills to help the economy (nor is it clear that Dems would actually vote for it).

Who is going to spend?

Dept. of "Huh"?

2010-08-05T11:39:00.004-04:00

Or, Wired's bike coverage does it again.

I've made no secret of the fact that I don't like Wired's bike coverage. See here and here and here and here. Here's today's mystery:

Oh man. If the LiveRider is anywhere near as good as it looks, then it’s going to sell roughly one zillion units. It’s a hardware/software combo that turns your iPhone or iPod Touch into a cycling computer, and it looks pretty hot.

So far, so good. I agree using the iPhone or iPod Touch as a cycling computer could be a cool thing (as I have one!), but...

First, the hardware. It comprises a frame-mounted sensor which cable-ties onto the chainstay and senses speed and cadence via magnets attached to the wheel and crank. This beams its info via 2.4 GHz RF to a dongle plugged in to the iPhone. The iPhone itself sits snug in a shock-absorbing handlebar-mount.
You then fire up the free companion app and get access to all the usual data: speed,
cadence, calories burned and so on, but on the big screen and in easy-to-view color. If you have GPS in your iDevice, it will also use that to let you know where you are.

Uhh... wha? So you have your iPod Touch, and you buy a unit that uses magnets attached to the wheel and the crank - basically like every other wireless computer out there today? Worse, if you have the iPhone, you already have GPS built right in and rather than use that functionality (like the Garmin does), you will rely on magnets and RF, using the GPS function to "know where you are"?

So, what I'm doing is swapping out a smaller, dedicated device (a wireless bike computer) for a larger one? Sacrificing bar real estate for what? Mapping capability? No. Power readings? No. The ability to listen to music while I ride? Maybe, but I can do that now by shoving my iPod in my jersey pocket. So I can crash my iPhone and upgrade? Maybe. But even then:

The whole setup weighs in at just 3-ounces, and costs a very reasonable $100. You will, of course, need to supply your own iPhone (everything fits except the first and last iPhones).

I can't use the first or the latest iPhone? And this whole thing costs $100? Weak, Wired, weak.

Beer update

2010-08-04T16:36:00.002-04:00

Don't like the Smuttynose Summer Weizen, not a fan of the chamomile.

Not a fan of the Star Island Single this year either. Disturbing.

Economy weakening?

2010-08-04T16:01:00.002-04:00

From Gallup:

The Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index -- which measures small-business owners' perceptions of six measures of their current operating environment and future expectations -- fell 17 points to -28 in July. This is its lowest level since the index's inception in August 2003.

Why?

Most of the decline in the overall index came in the Future Expectations Dimension of the index, which measures small-business owners' expectations for their companies' revenues, cash flows, capital spending, number of new jobs, and ease of obtaining credit. The dimension fell 13 points in July to -2 -- the first time in the index's history that future expectations of small-business owners have turned negative, suggesting owners have become slightly pessimistic as a group about their operating environment in the next 12 months.

I don't see how the economy will recover lost jobs by 2012 as some are still predicting it will. That's job creation on the magnitude of 300k+ per month and for the life of me I can't figure out where those jobs are supposed to come from.

PCE is negative to flat. Small business job creation is non-existent, government stimulus is off the table (and in fact I do believe that Republicans are now working actively against the economy to improve their chances in November. Shitty, but the only explanation I can come up with), so... where is the demand that will spur production and hiring?

What could make next year even better?

2010-08-04T12:58:00.001-04:00

This:

But all told, this is a team that's surprisingly publicity shy. for the moment at least. This time last year the likes of Sky and Radioshack were letting it be known they were coming into the sport and were already trying to whet the appetite of fans and the media alike. With Bjarne Riis having announced his plans for 2011, it'll soon be time for this team to put its cards on the table. Failing that, the Luxembourg media suggests that Schleck brothers might join Radioshack if the team does not fall into place for 2011.

Delicious.

Tour Thoughts

2010-08-03T09:29:00.001-04:00

Just realized that I never gave my final thoughts. Thought it was the most exciting Tour in a long while (despite VS. coverage, thank you DVR) but it left me oddly unsatisfied. The result seemed more like a draw than a victory for me. Maybe it's because I so dislike Contador, maybe it's because the two guys rode each other to a draw on every significant test (except the Prologue which is where Schleck probably lost the Tour). It felt like we needed overtime or something to decide it finally.

Regardless, if current trends hold, we should see some amazing racing over the next few years.

Wow! Didn't see this one coming

2010-08-03T09:15:00.004-04:00

Contador and Riis teaming up?

Bjarne Riis has revealed that Saxo Bank will continue to sponsor his cycling team alongside new sponsor SunGard in 2011, with Tour de France winner Alberto Contador joining the team for the next two years. Specialized will continue as bike sponsor but will not be a title sponsor of the team.

Great for so many narratives - Schlecks leaving to form their own team now have to compete against their old director sportief and chief rival together, Riis gets to DS Contador as he trys to beat Armstrong's (and Bruyneel's) streak of 7 TdF titles, Riis gets a huge chip to play in trying to hold his current team together, (if you are Stuey O'Grady or Jens Voight, would you rather ride with the Schlecks on a new team (with inevitable growing pains) or on your current team which was just bolstered by the addition of the man who beat you this year?) and the improved ability to recruit from other teams as well. Oh this is going to be fun.

That is, of course, if any of these guys will still be riding bicycles professionally by next year. Because, given Riis' background, I wonder what this is about:

Riis confirmed that Contador would travel to Copenhagen, perhaps to ink his contract for 2011, later today.“He is not here and has not been seen at Copenhagen airport but he will arrive later,” Riis said.
“I think I can contribute to polishing this diamond (Contador) even further.” (emp added)
"Alberto (Contador) is a world class rider and it's with great pride that I can welcome him onboard the team for the next two years. With three Tour de France victories on his resume and a position as number one on the world rankings, he is sure to stay at the very top for several years to come. Alberto will get a solid, strong and loyal team around him to support him in all terrains and I'm sure that this will be a fruitful alliance."

If I didn't think Contador was already doping (Fresh off the beach to a Giro victory?), I'd be suspicious. Instead, I'm going to enjoy the games.

Feels a bit like testing spaghetti

2010-08-03T09:09:00.002-04:00

Or pounding the table at this point:

Lawyers representing Lance Armstrong have complained about what they claim are unfair offers of amnesty or reduced penalties to riders who are willing to give evidence in the Floyd Landis investigation, specifically against Armstrong himself. The so-called ‘sweetheart deal’ would see concessions given to those willing to go on record as saying that they saw, or participated in doping practices on the US Postal team, thus helping to convict those higher up the chain of command.

Because

If Herman’s claims are true, however, it is not unusual that deals would be offered. The practice has long been carried out in criminal cases, and USADA also has a history of giving reduced penalties to those who give evidence against others who have participated in doping.According to Virginia attorney William M. Cusmano, the tactic is not unusual. "Getting incentives doesn't make them liars. It doesn't make an honest person out of a liar, of course, but it doesn't make a liar out of an honest person, either,” he told VeloNation."Many people need a reason to stick their necks out. If they didn't get a deal, why would they expose themselves to prosecution by saying anything? That doesn't make any sense. Sometimes the incentive is only half the pressure -- they [prosecutors] will tell you that if you don't cooperate, you're left out in the wind, too, and a target.

Which is why you get to go to court and confront your accusers - at least that's the way I understand the law. I'm starting to sense some real fear here. I'm biased, I know it, but these don't seem like statements made from a confident team.

Great Tour so far, or "It's still a bike race" part 2

2010-07-20T11:08:00.003-04:00

I do not like Alberto Contador. Really, I don't and haven't ever since he (allegedly) came off the beach to win the Giro a few years ago. I do not want him to win the Tour this year. That said, I can't fault him for this:

But as Voeckler was dreaming of victory, the biggest drama of the day was unfolding down the mountain as Schleck attacked with just under two kilometres of the climb remaining but was stopped just as suddenly when a dropped chain forced him to get off the bike while Vinokourov, Sanchez, Menchov and Contador rode away.
While TV pundits were calling it a defeat for fair play, Contador couldn't afford to wait for the man who stood 31 seconds between himself and the race lead at the start of the day. Faced with a hard-charging Sanchez and Menchov, Contador was stuck between the proverbial rock and potentially harder place.

Shit happens, and at the end of the day it's still a bike race. I can see if this happened 20k in on the flats, then ok, you wait. You don't attack during bio breaks. But there? At that point in the race? The race is on and a big part of it is to force someone to make an error. Shifting under a full load while trying to accelerate away from your rivals? High risk move that resulted in an error. Does it suck for Schleck? Sure does. But it's still a bike race and he fucked up.

IMHO, Andy Schelck already had his Tour saved once when Cancellara got everyone (and I still don't know how) to wait on Stage 2, it's too much to think that every time something happens to Andy everyone else has to wait.

We'll see if angry Andy can do anything with two days left in the mountains and if the former Luxemborg ITT champ can do anything on Saturday. Right now, I don't think so. But it's a race, right?

He's very, very good

2010-07-09T15:50:00.002-04:00

Contador:

Defending Tour de France champion Alberto Contador stopped by the RadioShack team bus bearing gifts prior to the start of Thursday’s stage 5 from Épernay to Montargis.
The Astana rider ventured alone to the RadioShack bus bearing two gift bags. He entered the bus, stayed for just a moment, and then disappeared through the thick crowd of journalists and fans that surround the bus daily.

Why'd he stop by? Why to remind Lance who won last year of course:

It’s common for Tour winners to reward teammates and staff. Though he still rides in Astana colors, the Spaniard won the 2009 Tour riding with Bruyneel’s organization, which now runs RadioShack.
“(Contador) had some gifts,” Bruyneel said. “It was for Lance and me. All the other guys have gotten it already.”
Bruyneel wouldn’t say what the gifts were, although Contador’s brother Fran told VeloNews they were watches.
“It’s something we had still pending from last year,” Bruyneel said. “He had said a few times already, or sent a message, ‘Hey, I have something for you guys.’ But we never got together. We hadn’t seen each other since Critérium International. It’s nice he thought about that and brought it to the Tour.”

Brilliant! It's a prickish move worthy of Armstrong at the height of his prickishness. And about the picture of what looks like Armstrong screaming at Contador on Stage 3?

After an Associated Press photo showed what appeared to be Armstrong and Contador exchanging tense words on stage 3, Armstrong denied having spoken with Contador.
Via his press manager Mark Higgins, Armstrong told VeloNews he hadn’t spoken with Contador — not during Tuesday’s stage, nor at any other point during the Tour.

Spoken to? No. Screamed at? Sure during Stage 3, why do you ask?

Me thinks Mr. Contador is is comfortably inside the head of Mr. Armstrong.

Bike Snob (again)

2010-07-08T17:36:00.001-04:00

Brilliant:

After all, Jens Voigt is supposed to say things like, "I love cobbles and pain, ja?," so that forumites will have new signatures for their postings about how Johan Bruyneel is the devil. So for Jens Voigt fans, hearing him complain about some pavé is surely like going to see Shakespeare in the Park only for the guy playing Hamlet to announce, "It's too damn hot for this shit, you can all go fuck yourselves."

I'll show you fear in a handful of dust

2010-07-07T08:49:00.003-04:00

and poof! Lance's Tour is functionally over.

The pavé had more madness in store, not least of all for seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong. He suffered a puncture not long after Contador had caught his group and required pacing by experienced teammate Yaroslav Popovych in a 30km stretch that certainly did not go to plan for Team RadioShack. Up ahead meanwhile, the American's rivals on general classification were riding towards gains on the overall standings.
It may be his last Tour but there were no gifts for Armstrong, who could be seen fighting his way alone through the team cars amongst the dust, the pavé and the French fans, while the big names ahead were catching Hesjedal and thinking about the stage win.

He's :50 down on Contador after today and he really needed to gain time today. I don't see how he wins now - he's not going to out ITT Contador, nor will he likely out climb him. It's the Tour and anything can happen, but this was a bad day for Lance's chances.

Andy Schleck has to be happy. He motored away with Cancellara (probably not literally) and is now :31 seconds up on Contador. Not enough to stay away in the ITT, but enough to build on in the mountains. Losing his brother was a big blow though.

It was a great day for Ryder Hesjedal too - it would have been great had he been able to hold it to the line but a great ride none-the-less.

Tommeke...wait, who?

2010-07-06T09:12:00.002-04:00

Resuts after Stage 2:

General classification after stage 2
1 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step 10:01:25

Points classification
1 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step 44 pts

Mountains classification
1 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Quick Step 13 pts

Hide your booze. And your cocaine. And your young daughters.

It's still a bike race

2010-07-06T09:00:00.004-04:00

Listen, if you want to, sure, you can neutralize the stage and let the GC guys get back in after what some thought was a dangerous course in the rain, I wouldn't (it's still a bike race after all and luck has a lot to do with it), but you could.

But why neutralize the sprint? There's more than one jersey at play and by neutralizing the race to even the odds for yellow, they totally fucked over those going for green. I agree with Thor:

"I've been riding all day for the stage win and the green jersey and I end up with nothing," Hushovd continued. "This is not fair. Will the same thing happen tomorrow? Will the times for GC be taken before the pavés sections? If Alberto Contador or another big rider crashes tomorrow on the cobblestones, he's entitled to ask for the race to be neutralised too! So when will we race, really?"

Riders bitch about the first week every year. Understandably - it's dangerous. But the danger is part of the spectacle. 80 kph descents are dangerous too. It wasn't as if the organizers sent them through a maze of roundabouts in the final 500 meters, it was a steep, wet descent. These are the best riders in the world. This is the biggest race in the world. Shut up and ride.

There you go.

2010-07-06T08:51:00.001-04:00

The descent continues? That's the cover from the issue that caused me to cancel my subscription. That's a magazine that's seriously lost its way.

Lots of scuttlebutt

2010-07-02T14:35:00.003-04:00

About Lance and/or Radio Shack and the Tour. Big rumors that they weren't going to start, etc. There's this today from Greg Lemond:

My Lance Armstrong prediction? Either he will not start or he will pull out just before the race enters France. I have a feeling that the world of cycling is about to change for the better.

Sure seems like something's up, there's a lot of froth, and I'm not entirely convinced it's all wild-ass post-Landis speculation

I don't think that this is a issue

2010-06-29T22:04:00.004-04:00

Seriously:

Manders: I, too, am pro life but I'm also pro choice, do you understand what I mean when I say that.
Angle: I'm pro responsible choice. There is choice to abstain choice to do contraception. There are all kind of good choices.
Manders: Is there any reason at all for an abortion?
Angle: Not in my book.
Manders: So, in other words, rape and incest would not be something?
Angle: You know, I'm a Christian and I believe that God has a plan and a purpose for each one of our lives and that he can intercede in all kinds of situations and we need to have a little faith in many things.

I disagree vehemently and think it an abhorrent position, but it is at least consistent and in keeping with actual church doctrine which is more than I can say about some who practice the faith these days.

I wish everyone who followed the church took its doctrine so seriously. It would finally prompt some of the discussions we need so desperately to have.

Line of the day

2010-06-29T17:53:00.003-04:00

How in the hell did this make it into the NY Times?

Jessie Gugig, 15, said she could not believe the charges, especially against Mrs. Murphy. “They couldn’t have been spies,” she said jokingly. “Look what she did with the hydrangeas.”

Hmmm, in the print version it says:

Jessie Gugigi, 15, said she could not believe the charges, especially against Mrs. Murphy, who was an accomplished gardener. “They couldn’t have been spies,”
Ms. Gugigi said. “Look what she did with the hydrangeas.”

That's a Wall Street Journalesque undocumented on-line correction. Think Jessie Gugigi/Gugig caught some shit today? Or was the Times trying to cover for random, useless reporting?

I laughed my ass off when I read it, too bad they corrected it.