tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46975827772044233212024-09-08T23:44:32.964+08:00Peak Oil And Our Limits to Growth From A Singapore Perspective.TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.comBlogger90125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-28456710934602764722012-02-19T08:19:00.000+08:002012-02-19T08:19:06.750+08:00

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-89751941732658951012012-01-11T13:12:00.009+08:002012-01-12T08:24:41.258+08:00

Finance and Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam recently warned of "Sub-par global growth for at least 2 years" (References: Reuters, Straits Times). I think he is being optimistic. The Singapore government is underestimating or ignorant of how peak oil and a planet with finite natural resources can and will limit our industrial production and severely disrupt our modern way of living.

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-5531669994369976982011-11-06T07:07:00.000+08:002011-11-06T07:27:43.292+08:00

ClubOrlov: Hubbert's Third Prophecy 1st Prophecy: US oil peak would be sometime between 1969 and 1971. It peaked in 1970. 2nd Prophecy: Hubbert predicted the world oil peak to happen about 1998. However he DID say that if OPEC were to restrict the supply, then the peak would be delayed by 10-15 years which would put it at 2008-2013 3rd Prophecy: A cultural crisis (Arab Spring and Occupy Wall

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-34032836207011351522011-10-17T10:29:00.001+08:002011-10-17T10:29:47.020+08:00

The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) invested 11 billion Swiss Francs in UBS in Dec 2007 (LINK) and USD$6.88 billion in Citigroup in Jan 2008 (LINK). GIC plans to hold on to these banks for a long time or, in Tony Tan's words, "many years": We look to continue to hold on to our stakes in UBS and Citigroup for many years to come. - Tony Tan, GIC's former executive director (

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-43164073656769701262011-10-11T20:30:00.001+08:002011-10-11T20:40:41.010+08:00

With the recent flooding situation in Thailand (Link), the price of rice is going to increase. This is only the beginning of a multi-decade long increase in the price of food as climate change, peak oil and a growing population make it increasingly difficult to feed everyone satisfactorily (850 million people are chronically hungry according to FAO). Mr Lee KY thinks that it is no problem because

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-31459866838077966212011-04-23T12:40:00.003+08:002011-04-24T07:58:18.605+08:00

But on the supply side, it is not all pessimistic news. There is hope for new sources of supply. Time and again experts have warned that oil and gas deposits will soon be depleted and they calculate the year beyond which mankind will be out of oil and gas. But such talk of peak oil has been proven wrong many times in the past. And they may yet proved mistaken again because each time you

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-27562827461703541552010-04-22T00:05:00.006+08:002011-03-19T07:27:47.893+08:00

In a 2006 speech, Senior Minister of State for Trade & Industry, S.Iswaran, readily accepted the EIA's projections that oil will not peak before 2030.The EIA estimates that oil production will not peak before 2030. World reserves-to-production ratio for natural gas is 67 years, and 180 years for coal. Rising energy prices will also spur more oil and gas exploration and increasingly render

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-79515738607664836332010-04-21T23:51:00.000+08:002010-04-21T23:52:15.886+08:00

A great read from Guardian.co.uk:Last March, Tim Jackson put forward the idea of prosperity without growth in a report published by the United Kingdom's Sustainable Development Commission and followed up with a book of the same name released last November. The book is a best seller (ranked 1,729 on Amazon) and in it he argues convincingly that we can still prosper without adhering to the

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-71036553747096647102010-04-21T23:30:00.001+08:002010-04-29T08:00:39.744+08:00

I notice that the Singapore media has been awfully silent on these important reports. The silence is deafening. Why? It makes me wonder if there is a goverment directive to keep this news away from the public - don't rock the boat; don't alarm the public. Or are the media just plain ignorant?I shall be grateful if anyone can point me to a recent link where the Singapore media reported on these

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-85045523139600181992010-01-19T08:30:00.006+08:002011-04-25T09:56:10.960+08:00

MM Lee Kuan Yew first mentioned the phrase "Golden Period"of economic growth in 2007, but he qualified that with this sentence:If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years. Speech LINKWell, MM Lee was right about the oil crises part. The "Golden Period" of economic growth that he foresaw was derailed in the 2008 oil shock when prices hit $147/barrel.

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-21543272077961883572009-11-04T10:08:00.002+08:002009-11-29T05:33:54.956+08:00

Joseph Tainter is an anthropologist and author of the seminal book, The Collapse of Complex Societies. (BitTorrent)http://varnelis.net/blog/interview_with_joseph_tainter_on_collapseJoseph Tainter: Diminishing returns to complexity are probably inevitable, but collapse doesn’t necessarily follow. Collapses are actually not that common. There are several ways to cope with diminishing returns to

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-44583629744381356642009-10-25T07:32:00.008+08:002009-11-03T07:41:05.681+08:00

Government leaders and economists don't like to question our economic growth paradigm. It upsets the status quo and nobody likes that. Could you imagine the board of directors and CEOs of Singapore's most established companies (SIA, NOL, PSA, etc.) telling their employees and shareholders that their days of growth and profit are unsustainable? That they have reached "peak profits"? And that in

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-61978584070584881152009-09-23T21:38:00.001+08:002009-09-27T08:10:27.163+08:00

"Pernicious" - a very appropriate description of present-day economists.“Economists live completely within a false world,” he says. “If I had one wave of a wand – and I could make one decision for the government to implement – I would press for the compulsory re-education of economists. I’d force them to learn about the law of thermodynamics, to understand how the natural world works, and then

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-924628954663186062009-09-02T05:58:00.005+08:002009-09-02T07:20:47.467+08:00

PM Lee Hsien Loong said:Our basic attitude has been that environmental sustainability is not incompatible with economic development. We have systematically and resolutely tackled used water and other issues faced by cities all over the world.Speech LinkMay I ask the Prime Minister: How would you consider this externality? Positive or negative for the environment?Vietnam’s prime minister has asked

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-49599467087459126622009-09-01T20:25:00.001+08:002009-09-02T05:02:39.143+08:00

Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-11760157308581681122009-08-10T11:23:00.002+08:002009-08-10T19:47:55.498+08:00

Economic growth is all about production and consumption. Economists and politicians love a growing population of consumers because it adds to economic growth. A greying population would slow our growth and so the current 4.6 million on this island is not enough, we need 6.5 million in the coming decades. Now this cycle of growth is vicious and self-perpetuating. In 2030, the government will say

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-29369588194234448992009-08-08T09:43:00.003+08:002011-09-25T10:21:23.805+08:00

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) published in Nov 2007 (p.13): For oil and gas, proven reserves are estimated to be sufficient for only around 40 and 63 years of 2006 levels of consumption respectively. Nevertheless, oil and gas production is not expected to peak within the next two to three decades. With more exploration and improvements in extraction technologies, substantial new

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-3078965316008013392009-06-07T10:58:00.002+08:002009-06-07T11:08:19.574+08:00

Relocalization, not globalization, is the way forward for Singapore and the rest of the world. However, I doubt that relocalization efforts will take place until we enter the collapse phase of panarchy theory (see article below), but then it might be too late to prevent a societal breakdown. The 2008 oil crisis and financial panic ought to have awaken us to the fragility of a globalized world.

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-64196240240228584272009-06-03T11:00:00.007+08:002009-06-03T13:51:32.547+08:00

To sustain growth and vitality in our economy, we need a growing population in Singapore with talents in every field. -- PM Lee Hsien Loong in the 2006 National Day RallyContrast the above statement with an interesting speech given by former Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Singapore, Dr. Ow Chin Hock, in 1978 at the opening of the Family Planning Association.At the national level,

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-3583267652534715872009-06-01T13:25:00.006+08:002009-10-24T18:41:52.558+08:00

Geologist Colin Campbell made a number of astute observations in this 2005 video interview (below) about oil and the financial system. We have to wake up to the fact that we are nearing or at the end of growth.The boom time of the last 50 years was based on cheap oil which is now coming to an end. The end of growth threatens to bring down our debt-based monetary system which is founded on

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-16113246530889859852009-05-13T13:15:00.008+08:002009-05-13T18:50:12.033+08:00

It is not unthinkable that we may soon say goodbye to the era of 1500 mile Thai rice, 3000 mile Australian lamb loin chops, 4000 mile New Zealand strip loins, 9000 mile Namibian seafood, and 10,000 mile Norwegian Salmon Fillet in Cold Storage and NTUC Fairprice. Why? Because triple-digit oil prices are going to drive up transportation costs to such an extent that it will be more sensible and

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-13957051761692287312009-05-07T11:12:00.005+08:002009-05-08T07:13:29.285+08:00

After years of encouraging and pursuing a policy of higher birth rates for Singapore, I was a little surprised to read these comments by MM Lee at a dinner marking the Botanic Gardens' 150th anniversary in TODAYonline (see below). Apparently, even he understands our "sunshine limits to growth". So the question to ask, why does Singapore continue to pursue those very policies of economic and

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-48632933790400272402009-05-04T08:59:00.006+08:002009-05-04T09:31:48.623+08:00

A brilliant article which explains how and why the dominant economic paradigm is rooted in unreality and fantasy. The financial "wizards" and economic "high priests" of today rightly deserve to be castigated not only for the current worldwide credit crunch but also for our environmental woes. Our current model of relentless economic growth and accumulation of goods and capital is a recipe for

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-35494249419588538622009-04-29T09:36:00.016+08:002009-11-03T16:59:38.529+08:00

Singapore's Inter-Ministerial Committee on Sustainable Development (IMCSD) has unveiled its blueprint for sustainable development. You can download it at: http://app.mewr.gov.sg/data/ImgCont/1292/sustainbleblueprint_forweb.pdf My impressions? In short, it is inadequate and myopic. It is another step on the road to diminishing returns on investments in social complexity. (See also: New Scientist

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4697582777204423321.post-25373816319794184572009-04-28T09:33:00.004+08:002009-04-28T09:39:15.751+08:00

An email that I sent recently....To:mnd_hq@mnd.gov.sg; mewr_feedback@mewr.gov.sg; gracefu@mnd.gov.sg; jessie_liang@mnd.gov.sg; may_lim@mewr.gov.sg; amy_khor@mewr.gov.sg; maliki_osman@mnd.gov.sgSent: Monday, 27 April 2009 4:30:16Dear MND and MEWR,As a concerned Singaporean, I am alarmed to read the following in a speech by Minister Mah Bow Tan:Cities have to ensure that economic growth is not

TMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955364686974459672noreply@blogger.com0