Sino-Myanmar Watcher

Author Event: A Story From Burma's Never-Ending War

2010-03-24T19:25:00.000-07:00

I had the pleasure of sitting in on a presentation by Mac McClelland about her new book, "A Story From Burma's Never-Ending War".

The presentation was generally good. However, I wish she had used a more structured power point presentation. As much as I love good ad libbing. It's much easier to understand 100 years of complex history with the assistance of some nice visual aids.

While much of the information was old hat for any serious Burma-phile. A few points warrant further discussion.

CIA involvement on both sides of the Burmese civil war: After the Guo Min Dang lost control of China in 1949. A number of GMD insurgents took up arms in a part of the Shan state and attempted to re-invade China through Yunnan province. The CIA armed both sides in an effort to stabilize the regime in Rangoon and create momentum for pushing the Chinese Communist Party out of power. Not surprisingly, the attacks were repulsed and the CCP backed the Communist Party of Burma through much of the next two decades.
Genocide: Although Burma has been officially labeled on a watch list for having the potential for real genocide. Not much has been made of that fact at the international level. With China and Russia sitting on the United Nations Security Council, we can rest easy that no serious measure condemning the military regime in Nyapyidaw will ever be tabled. I guess that leaves the hard work to the tough guys manning the border areas.
Despite the co-sponsorship of the event by the US Campaign for Burma it's safe to say that Mac McClelland definitely disagrees with the current international sanctions policy. Ms. McClelland maintained that the resource extraction done by the military regime would support it comfortably for a long time. As a consequence, the blanket sanctions currently in place is only hurting the common people. (This author wholeheartedly agrees.)

This event provided a pretty good background on the situation in Myanmar and the international communities response to the problems there. I hope that future programs include more debate about the merits of the sanctions currently in place. Far too often the debate about sanctions is not about what's best for most of the people in Myanmar. But instead, the focus is only on how best to hurt the regime in Nyapyidaw. Maybe the international community should reconsider the questions we are asking about how best to handle the situation there. After all, even if the military returned to it's barracks at the stroke of 12 tomorrow. Myanmar would still have enormous capacity, infrastructure and governance challenges.

After the Elections - What Next?

2010-02-03T16:37:00.000-08:00

Well, here we are in the second month of 2010 and still no word from Bogyoke Than Shwe on when the supposed elections will be held this year. Most opposition analysts see this election as just a rubber stamp for continued military rule. Still others (David Steinberg and Thant Myint U) believe that with Than Shwe near the end of his rule, the time is ripe for some big shuffles in the military.
I'm inclined to believe the latter.

Although the new system will certainly not be a representative democracy by any stretch of the word. It will allow for some political movement that could be exploited in the future. The current situation is pretty bleak. The main opposition party is aging and essentially inconsequential. Myanmar has lost most civil society and the groups that remain are constantly being hounded by military intelligence. As a result, the main opposition groups should consider what bargaining power they actually have. The threat of further protests and public defiance against Than Shwe's regime might make for good news. But all things considered, the military will always be a major part of Myanmar political life. It has been in power too long and has too much control to simply wish it all away in a color revolution.

The best change in Myanmar would be incremental. A power sharing arrangement between the ethnic groups, the military and the main political opposition, the NLD. But in order for that to happen there must be a civil society to exert pressure on the military leadership. Money talks, and right now the best money is made pillaging the countries resources via the various military controlled industries scattered about the country. Without an independent economy, there is no alternative to the military controlled purse strings that have kept Myanmar in perpetually inept hands since the fall of U Ne Win in the late 1980's. Therefore, I say trade is good. Sanction the military corporations all you want. But try and raise some sort of economy that is independent of the military. Myanmar needs another source of power to challenge the military's control over the country. A vibrant and growing economy should do the trick.

Why watch Sino-Myanmar relations?

2009-10-07T19:51:00.001-07:00

China and Myanmar have been neighbors for centuries, but the modern world is bringing them closer together than ever before. The construction of pipelines, hydro-electric power plants, revitalization of the Burma road, massive migration on both sides of the border and simmering ethnic conflicts will keep China heavily involved in Myanmar for the foreseeable future. But the relationship between Beijing and Nyapyidaw is by no means simple or one-sided. China doesn't pull any strings with the xenophobic generals that run what is now known as the State Peace and Development Council. With the recent shift in US policy towards direct engagement with Nyapyidaw we can expect that things will get more interesting between China and Myanmar in the near future.

Now that you know why you should care, here is what I intend to do. I will create a detailed summary of events in the news over the past week involving Sino-Myanmar relations. While I can't always promise to stay on topic. (I might jump over to domestic issues in Myanmar or relations with other neighbors in the region such as India or ASEAN countries.) I will do my best to make the information interesting and filled with as much eye candy as possible. Please let me know if you like this subject or the content that you see here. I sincerely appreciate constructive criticism on my writing style as well. That's all for now. >)