Since China entered the WTO in 2001, the automotive industry has grown exponentially. From two million vehicles sold in 2001, against nearly 19 million in the US, sales in China grew to 18.5 million units in 2011, more than vehicle sales in the US, making China the largest automotive market in the world. The Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation estimates that if growth continues at current rates of 10-11% per year, China could be selling 30 million vehicles annually by 2015. Providing energy for those vehicles may prove a challenge even greater than that of providing food for the nation’s 1.6 billion residents.

No conversation on the auto industry in China is complete without a discussion of electric vehicles (EV), whether they are pure electric or hybridized vehicles that utilize electricity from the grid.. Indeed, the world is watching as China’s automotive industry transforms from a backward, technical laggard into a world-leading battery-powered, grid-enabled juggernaut. Chinese officials are brimming with confidence that China can take this technical challenge as a way to leap past the rest of the world’s auto industry into a clean, next-generation mode of transportation for its own people, indeed for all people around the world.

There are different views on how China might progress with such an ambition. A survey by Pike Research in 2011 presents the positive scenario. Among 55 automotive vendors developing electric-enabled vehicles of some form surveyed, China was expected to be the leader in this technology by 2015. The National Development and Reform Commission has already set the target that China should be producing one million new energy vehicles by 2015. These include battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, range extended EVs, mild hybrids (such as the first generation of the Toyota Prius) and natural gas vehicles.

The second scenario paints China as a follower of the successful technologies of frontier innovators. This is based on the idea that China has a limited recent history of innovation, and will fall into the same trap with EVs as it has fallen into in the rest of the automotive sector, in turn, failing to achieve its goals.

In favour of the positive scenario is that China is creating a huge incubator for international cooperation on innovation in EV technology and a test bed for implementation that no other country is likely able to rival. Researchers, companies, countries and international institutions from around the world are coming to China to build partnerships. In parallel, China’s government is imposing stricter requirements for localization of production that is expected to result in sharing, transfer and innovation of new technology and commercialization in the long run.

An example of an international partnership is the Shanghai Auto-General Motors joint battery research center, which brings together US and Chinese industrial research talent in one place to produce batteries and other EV technologies. This has the two-way benefits of bringing international expertise to China, as well as integrating Chinese EV suppliers with the global market served by this global company.

A second example is the US-China Clean Energy Research Center – Clean Vehicle Consortium (CERC-CVC). This is an international research center aimed not just at revolutionizing the way people travel, but also the way academics and industry collaborate internationally. Unlike conventional international academic exchange, this partnership is seeing the development of joint work plans, international work on the same projects, jointly written papers, guaranteed rights to international property in each others’ territories, and an overall emphasis on collaboration and complementary research. The collaboration, led by the Ministry of Science and Technology and China’s Tsinghua University on the China side and the Department of Energy and University of Michigan in the US, is planning to bring collaboration between governments, companies and governments on related new technologies to unprecedented levels.

Likewise, the Sino-German Partnership on EV development, like the CERC-CVC, is bringing together companies, government and academics from China and Europe. The focus of regular conferences and the sharing and implementation of academic and pilot research projects is on standardization and implementation of EV technology.

With institutions of all types from around the world coming to China to compete for space in China’s huge automotive market, China is increasingly positioned at the center of innovation on electric vehicle technology. The combination of the arrival of new ideas from around the world together with the scale of China’s future transport energy requirements under the optimistic scenario could bring the conversion of new ideas into reality. China’s pilot city format, whereby a small group of cities is chosen to experiment with new ideas, provides to reveal potential for what works – and does not work – for China, relatively quickly. From this eventually the industrial structure including energy supply structure to provide clean and convenient transportation to the masses in China could arise, and in turn be transferred to other parts of the world.

The electric vehicle industry is not the only industry where these collaborative relationships are coalescing in China. Indeed, it is merely one example of the many industries where such international coalescence is occurring. Nanotechnology, wireless communication, biotechnology, clean coal and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology and other industries are seeing key collaborations forming in China that in many ways can not occur elsewhere around the world. This does not isolate former more exclusive research leaders. Rather it changes the pattern of research clustering, adding momentum to the need for breakthroughs.

Those interested in energy sustainability for future generations should hope that these research partnerships produce breakthroughs that honorably benefit not just all the immediate partners involved, but which also improve sustainable mobility people everywhere.

All shot in one day: Motorcycles on Guanghua Road

It seems that there are a lot more gasoline powered motorbikes on Beijing’s roads this year with the coming of Beijing’s automobile license plate limits — and I have become quite curious about their legality, as well as about their environmental impact.

When I first came to Beijing in 2006, it seemed that there were significantly fewer motorbikes here than where I had spent 2005 — in Changsha.  In fact, in my memory, besides 3-wheeled vehicles, there were practically no motorbikes.  This was reinforced for me in 2008 when one of my foreign colleagues had her motorbike confiscated by traffic police.  Around the time of the Olympics, I’d say there were only electric 2-wheelers on the road.  I could be wrong, but I’ve got a pretty strong feeling about that.

Recently, another friend of mine stopped using her motorbike because she wasn’t allowed to fill it inside the city.  This got me looking into the rules.

According to the Beijing Traffic Management Bureau, some questions have been rolling in about legality of motorbikes in Beijing City.  The answers are as follows (translated from Chinese):

Motorcycles are managed according to the following rules in Beijing:

• On Changan Jie (from Xinxing Bridge to Guomao Bridge), motorcycles are forbidden from 7:00 am to 8:00 pm;
• Motorcycles are always forbidden on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th ring roads;
• Motorcycles with a 京B license plate, and all motorcycles with license plates from outside of Beijing are forbidden from operating inside the 4th ring road (not including the side-roads)

This leaves only the 京A license plates allowed for use within the 4th ring road, with the limitations listed above.

So what does it take to get a 京A license plate for a motorcycle in Beijing? That’s tricky — Beijing stopped issuing 京A license plates in the 1990s!  So, you’ve got to make your way down to motorcycle markets in southern Beijing where a second-hand plate will cost you RMB 12,000 — about the cost of a motorcycle.  The prices for 京A plates have risen from RMB 10,000 last year, and 9,000 the year before that.  It’s no wonder that of the 25 motorcycles I photographed yesterday (and put in the collage above), only 2 of them had 京A plates!

So why not e-bikes?  Aren’t they the hottest thing in Asia these days?  As one motorcycle salesman said, compared with the electric bicycle, motorcycles can go further distances and have longer lives – up to 10 years with proper maintenance, while electric bikes generally last for three years.  A friend of mine who bought a motorcycle (and who used to own an e-bike) also said that he hated dragging the 14 kg battery around to charge it at night.  Gasoline is just so much more portable!

The license plate limitation policy in Beijing is having far-reaching effects on the automotive industry in Beijing.  People need practical vehicles, and e-bikes seem to be not able to fill their requirements.  Gasoline-powered motorbikes are practical, but do not have policies to support them, resulting in a mostly illegal fleet of motorbikes on Beijing’s roads.  This means everyone is just waiting for the day when Beijing’s traffic police have an “Illegal Motorbike” campaign and clean them all off the road again.

Traffic management in an overpopulated city is not an easy issue to deal with.  Planning has to be smart, flexible and practical for urban residents.  Is Beijing up to the challenge?

I will expand my collection of these wonderful decals as time goes by (and when I get my phone back), but for the time being, I leave this picture with you to enjoy your “Punishment and Endurement” by our Decepticon police overlords.

Deceptapolice: To Punish and Endure. Watch out, Beijing. Transformer Wars a'comin!

A teeny-tiny EV parked outside Ritan Park, July 2011

As you can see from this picture, this is not a big normal-sized car, this must be one of those low-speed EVs that we are hearing about.  I don’t recognize the brand — looks like it’s a little manufacturer from Hebei called Wanlian-Dawo.  This little puppy goes 30 km/h with a range of 80-150 km with 3 kW of power. It seems this company has no certification for producing cars, so…I guess this is not a car, but two electric bikes duct-taped together with a shell on top.  It also has no license plate.

I’m afraid its range is not far enough, however — the next day, I rode past this same place, and the car was still there.  Either the driver was drunk when he/she left Maggies and took a taxi home, or this little car ran out of power and had to be towed to a charging location.

These are the risks of driving an EV!

That means that there are suddenly hundreds or thousands of volunteers available to control intersections across Chaoyang district.  From the east second ring road to east 3rd ring road, there are at least 25 young students controlling intersections, holding banners to block pedestrians and cyclists for entering the intersection, and to keep everyone in their bike lanes, sidewalks and turning lanes.  It is quite a project. And it is impressive that students suddenly have time to be standing around on the street.

Volunteers manage intersection - Civilized Chaoyang!

You can see in the picture above, they are using physical barriers to block cyclists from moving into the intersection.  There is also a table for water and volunteer management under the umbrella there.  What you can’t see in this relatively poorly taken picture is that there are also two police officers at the intersection, there are the regular traffic control people (the guy in the red hat, for example), and 3-4 students.  Amazing resources this country has.  人多力量大！ (More people, greater power! — Mao Zedong).

Some people had requested a copy of my slides.  Here they are below.  If you have any more questions, definitely feel free to contact me!

Robert Earley BEER  [pdf]

Real Time Traffic - Central Beijing. (Google Maps)

Use of real-time traffic information for implementing smart-routing through GPS systems would be great for reducing traffic jams, and the emissions and energy consumption associated with them.  However, real-time traffic information comes from a complex data monitoring, evaluation and reporting mechanism that is far from perfect.

At this time in China, most real-time traffic data (as well as digital maps) come from two big GPS data companies, Autonavi and Sennavi ( I think that’s the English name).  They sell that data to Google, Baidu, municipal governments and other companies.

According to my understanding, they get this data from a number of sources:

• Taxis with GPS/GPRS systems mounted inside – These companies pay the taxi companies for the data provided by these GPS/GPRS systems.  The taxis drive normally, and report back their location and speed to the system which analyses their travel pattern.  The data from each car individually is not reliable because you never know why a car is stopped.  So I think they only accept data from these cars when they have a fare (the meter is running, so the car is not likely to stop and wait around — correct me if I’m wrong).  Only when there are many cars reporting their travel can the system make accurate predictions about the traffic situation at any particular location.  So, if there are no or few of these taxis in a particular area, other methods need to be used to gather traffic data.
  • This is particularly important, and is the major reason that traffic data is only available for major roads, and not for small roads:  if there are no reporting vehicles in a particular place, there is no way to know if there is a traffic problem or not.

• Road sensors – road sensors can show when traffic is stopped or moving — but these are expensive and need to be calibrated from time to time.  Therefore, it is difficult to install them on smaller roads.

• Cameras – Like road sensors, cameras can detect when traffic is stopped or moving.  I wonder if this is a potential area of expanding data on smaller streets regarding traffic movement, but this also brings into question of privacy and national security of video data.

• Call-in reports – these call in reports, while up-to-date, cannot be relied on to always report traffic issues, and need to be verified.  They also require actual people to answer phones/inquiries, meaning increased labour cost.

After data is collected, it has to be processed, and judged for accuracy.  If data is suddenly unavailable, historical systems have to be ready in order to predict the likely traffic situation.  Finally, the data is broadcast by FM-radio signal across to GPS terminals across the city, or through the internet on portals such as google or Baidu maps.

Needless to say, this is a capital-intensive and heavily regulated service, and is not easy to get into as a new entrant.  Apparently, data is available on major roads in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu and several other major centers.

In this way, it seems that Beijing in particular has challenges for providing a large number of alternative routes around traffic jams based on real-time traffic information. First, most providers of real-time traffic data are already on major roads.  Data about smaller roads (as possible alternative routes) will be extremely limited and at best, unreliable.  Secondly, due to Beijing’s ring-road / large city block structure, there are relatively few alternative routes to take once one has already set off, particularly on cross-city trips.

I guess there must be other challenges to solve here, but these are some of the key ones.  I hope somebody can figure them out!

By the way, iCET is working with Autonavi to try and offer a GPS-based GHG emission handheld application (it’s only for Symbian phone at the moment, and only in Chinese).  The first beta edition can’t do it yet — but it is already in Autonavi’s Minimap platform.  After a bit more work, we should have real GPS-based transport emission data in a handheld application based on mode of travel, including specific vehicle emissions.

Guo Mao Scale Model...minus one building...hmmm

Sorry it is kind of dark, my phone’s camera is not great.  Anyway, I was looking at the model…Guo Mao T1, check.  Guo Mao T2, Check.  China World Hotel, Check. Kerry Center, Check.  Kerry Center Hotel…Check.  What’s missing?  What’s missing?  Oh Dear, it’s the E-tower!  My office building doesn’t exist in Guo Mao’s vision…Is this a picture of things to come?  Are the rumours of no more E-tower within 6 months possibly true?  It was an awfully luscious-looking, green parking long in E-tower’s place…

Anyway, just for fun, I decided to look on Biadu and Google Maps to see what they had on the topic, and found some really interesting results.

First, Baidu is 3 years out of date on its 3D map of Beijing’s CBD.  What the heck?  The little old that was torn down in the first few weeks I was at iCET is still in the picture.  Guo Mao T3 is nowhere to be seen, and there is a giant construction site around the e-Tower (which is in the picture!  yay!)  What up, Baidu?

Second: Google is up to date.  T3 and e-tower are all there.

Guo Mao's model of itself, Baidu's 3D map (ancient) and Google's satellite image of Guo Mao

Conclusions / Observations:

1. What the heck is Guo Mao Planning for this area?  Why was that guy coming around to all the units in e-tower a few months ago offering to buy?  Is the E-tower going to be here still in a year?
2. Baidu…honestly, why do you have a 3 year-old 3D map of Beijing’s CBD?  Is it that hard to keep up on Beijing’s highest-profile commercial district?
3. Google — should be in China.  It provides high quality, up-to-date data that is easily accessible and useful.

And that’s that!

iCET’s microblog, found at http://weibo.com/greencar2011 has been online for 2 days, and is making a big splash.  Focused on spreading information about the environmental impact of different models of vehicles in China, it has attracted the attention of fans and foes of vehicles alike.

If you’re a Sina weibo user, come on over and add the @环境友好汽车 microblog to your 关注 list.  If you’re not a Sina weibo user, sign up at weibo.com!  And if you are not in China — ho ho, Sina Weibo is coming at you, if you’re not already happy with Twitter, I guess.

And if you want to know more about the Environmentally Friendly Vehicle program, shoot on over to http://www.greencarchina.org

Environmentally Friendly Vehicle Weibo Screenshot