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	<description>Examining Extraordinary Claims and Promoting Science</description>
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		<title>13-05-15</title>
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		<comments>http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/13-05-15/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2013 07:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[eSkeptic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Lutz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ghosts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[My Amityville Horror]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[review]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25208</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Trevor Fehrman reviews Eric Walter&#8217;s documentary film <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&#38;type=3&#38;subid=0&#38;tmpid=1826&#38;RD_PARM1=https%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fmy-amityville-horror%252Fid609389398%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Get it on iTunes"><em>My&#160;Amityville Horror</em></a> (<a href="http://www.ifcfilms.com/films/my-amityville-horror">IFC Films 2012</a>), in which, for the first time ever, Daniel Lutz delivers his perspective on perhaps the most famous ghost story in America: the 1975 Amityville haunting. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #dce6e6; padding: 20px;">
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em> eSkeptic</em>:</p>
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<li><a href="#lectures"> <strong> Lecture this Sunday</strong>: Dr. Daphne J. Fairbairn on Extraordinary Differences between the Sexes in the Animal Kingdom </a></li>
<li><a href="#Paranoia"> <strong>YouTube Video</strong>: The Perks of Paranoia, by Christopher Griffin </a></li>
<li><a href="#followLoxton"> <strong>Follow Daniel Loxton</strong>: Skeptics are Not Everythingologists </a></li>
<li><a href="#feature"> <strong>Feature Article</strong>: Growing Up in the Amityville Horror (a movie review)</a></li>
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<div style="height: 308px; border: 1px solid #666666; border-top:0;border-bottom:0;"><a name="lectures"></a> <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/upcoming-lectures/"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-03/dinstinguished-lecture-series-banner.jpg" alt="The Skeptics Society Distinguished Lecture Series at Caltech" width="548" height="308" style="border: 0;" /> </a>
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<h4 style="margin: 10px 0 20px 0; font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; color: #434336;">Our Next Lecture at Caltech:<br />DR. DAPHNE J. FAIRBAIRN</h4>
<div style="display: block; width: 210px; float: left; margin: 0 20px 10px 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/lectures/images/Daphne-Fairbairn.jpg" alt="Daphne Fairbairn" width="200" height="273" class="boxShadow" /></div>
<h5 style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">Odd Couples: Extraordinary Differences between the Sexes in the Animal Kingdom</h5>
<p>with Dr. Daphne J. Fairbairn<br /><strong>Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 2 pm </strong></p>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">WHILE WE JOKE that men are from Mars and women are from Venus, our gender differences can&#8217;t compare to those of other animals. For instance: the male garden spider spontaneously dies after mating with a female more than 50 times his size. Female cichlids must guard their eggs and larvae&#8212;even from the hungry appetites of their own partners. And male blanket octopuses employ a copulatory arm longer than their own bodies to mate with females that outweigh them by four orders of magnitude. Why do these gender gulfs exist? This lecture, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691141967/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0691141967&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">her book</a>, explores some of the most extraordinary sexual differences in the animal world. From the fields of Spain to the deep oceans, evolutionary biologist Daphne Fairbairn uncovers the unique and bizarre characteristics that exist in these remarkable species and the special strategies they use to maximize reproductive success. Fairbairn also considers humans and explains that although we are keenly aware of our own sexual differences, they are unexceptional within the vast animal world.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691141967/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0691141967&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the book from Amazon</a></p>
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<div class="StoryBanner" style="height: 307px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/skepticism-101/the-perks-of-paranoia/"><img alt="The Perks of Paranoia, by Christopher Griffin" src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-15/Perks-of-Paranoia.png" width="548" height="307" style="border: 0;" /> </a>
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<h4 style="margin: 10px 0 20px 0; font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; color: #434336; display: none;">The Perks of Paranoia</h4>
<p><strong>Myths</strong>. <strong>Conspiracy Theories</strong>. <strong>Illusory Correlation</strong>. Do these things have an evolutionary basis in common? What type of thinking enables conspiracy theorists to correlate ideas that in truth have nothing to do with each other? In his book, <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b144PB"><em>The Believing Brain</em></a>, Michael Shermer refers to these types of thinking as <em>patternicity</em> &#8212; finding meaningful patterns in meaningless noise.</p>
<p>In this video project by Christopher Griffin, a senior Graphic Design student at the California College of the Arts (San Francisco), these pattern-seeking ideas are visually illustrated, as if diving head-first into the mind of a true believer.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/skepticism-101/the-perks-of-paranoia/">Watch the Video</a></p>
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<div style="height: 109px; border: 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/images/follow-daniel-loxton-header.jpg" alt="Follow Daniel Loxton on Twitter, Facebook, and Skepticblog." width="548" height="109" style="border: 0;" />
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<h4 style="color: #5a5b62; margin-top: 30px; font: 18px/20px Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #797b70; letter-spacing: 1px; font-style: normal; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal;">NEW ON SKEPTICBLOG.ORG</span><br />Skeptics are Not Everythingologists</h4>
<p style="color: #2f3232; font-size: 13px;">Daniel Loxton reflects upon the dangers of speaking beyond one&#8217;s expertise&#8212;a danger no less serious for skeptics than for fringe science proponents.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2013/05/14/skeptics-are-not-everythingologists/">READ THE POST</a></p>
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<h4 style="color: #5a5b62; margin-top: 0;font: 18px/20px Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;">Modern Skepticism&#8217;s Unique Mandate</h4>
<p style="color: #2f3232; font-size: 13px;">Daniel Loxton looks at the 1976 birth of scientific skepticism as an organized modern project, and asks: If other movements already promoted humanism, atheism, rationalism, science education, and even critical thinking, why did skeptics find it necessary to organize an additional, new movement called &#8220;skepticism&#8221;?</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2013/05/13/modern-skepticisms-unique-mandate/">READ THE POST</a></p>
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<div style="display: block; height: 27px; padding: 8px 0 0 20px; background-image: url(http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/images/follow-daniel-loxton-footer.jpg); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0; border-top: 1px solid #c9cdc4; letter-spacing: 1px;">FOLLOW DANIEL LOXTON ON <a href="http://twitter.com/daniel_loxton" title="Follow Daniel Loxton on Twitter" style="color: #fff5a5; font-weight: bold;">TWITTER</a> &bull; <a href="http://www.facebook.com/Junior.Skeptic.magazine" title="Follow Junior Skeptic on Facebook" style="color: #fff5a5; font-weight: bold;">FACEBOOK</a> &bull; <a href="http://skepticblog.org/author/loxton/" title="Follow Daniel Loxton on SkepticBlog" style="color: #fff5a5; font-weight: bold;">SKEPTICBLOG</a></div>
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<h5 style="font-style: normal; margin-top: 5px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">About this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em></h5>
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Trevor Fehrman reviews Eric Walter&#8217;s documentary film <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&amp;offerid=146261&amp;type=3&amp;subid=0&amp;tmpid=1826&amp;RD_PARM1=https%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fmy-amityville-horror%252Fid609389398%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Get it on iTunes"><em>My&nbsp;Amityville Horror</em></a> (<a href="http://www.ifcfilms.com/films/my-amityville-horror">IFC Films 2012</a>), in which, for the first time ever, Daniel Lutz delivers his perspective on perhaps the most famous ghost story in America: the 1975 Amityville haunting.</p>
<p><strong>Trevor Fehrman</strong> is a native of the Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St Paul, MN). His involvement in the local theater scene improbably landed him on a television show alongside Nathan Lane. He worked as an actor in television and film for many years before moving to Berkeley to study literature and write. He contributes a column to <em>Film Racket</em> called The Contrarian.</p>
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<p style="font: 11px/16px Verdana, sans-serif; margin:0;">Share this article with friends online.<br />Click the + for more options.<br /><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/subscribe"> Subscribe to <em>Skeptic</em> magazine</a> for more great articles like this one, and if you enjoy reading them, consider <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/donate/">making a tax-deductible donation</a> to&nbsp;the Skeptics Society.</p>
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<div style="height: 343px; border: 1px solid #666; border-top: 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-15/My-Amityville-Horror-still.jpg" width="548" height="343" style="border: 0;" alt="Daniel Lutz in My Amityville Horror (movie still), IFC Films" />
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<h4>Growing Up in the Amityville Horror</h4>
<p class="Author">by Trevor Fehrman</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal;"> T</span>he principal subject of Eric Walter&#8217;s superb documentary, <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&amp;offerid=146261&amp;type=3&amp;subid=0&amp;tmpid=1826&amp;RD_PARM1=https%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fmy-amityville-horror%252Fid609389398%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Get it on iTunes"><em>My Amityville Horror</em></a>, is a ghost. His restless, estranged spirit flickers and moves past us like a projection, doomed every day to relive the ordeal which finally drove him beyond the land of warmth and living things. He&#8217;s a shade, a shadow, a churning confluence of ireful energies. His name is Danny Lutz. He works as a UPS delivery man. In his free time he plays passable, if vapid riffs on a tacky electric guitar. He sees dead people. Or&#8230;at least he <em>saw</em> them, anyway.</p>
<p><em>My Amityville Horror</em> is largely composed of extended interviews with Danny in which he gives, for the first time ever, his perspective on what is probably the most famous ghost story in America. Danny, now a stocky, bald, middle-aged man with a volatile, blue-collar demeanor and a smoking habit, was only a 10-year-old boy at the time he lived in the Amityville house that became the greatest ghost story in recent memory. During his short stay in the house on Ocean Avenue, a time he describes as &#8220;like being awake in your own dream,&#8221; he claims to have been possessed, thrown up a flight of stairs by an unseen force, swarmed by hoards of flies, had a window magically smash his hand so forcefully that he describes the injury to his fingers as &#8220;skin on skin&#8221; (though it was miraculously healed later that night), witnessed glowing red eyes through a second-story window, strange smells, temperature changes, odd garage door behavior, mysterious green slime, and other spooky flotsam and jetsam.</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&amp;offerid=146261&amp;type=3&amp;subid=0&amp;tmpid=1826&amp;RD_PARM1=https%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fmy-amityville-horror%252Fid609389398%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Get it on iTunes"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-15/My-Amityville-Horror-poster-sm.jpg" alt="My Amityville Horror (poster)" width="225" height="336" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&amp;offerid=146261&amp;type=3&amp;subid=0&amp;tmpid=1826&amp;RD_PARM1=https%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fmy-amityville-horror%252Fid609389398%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Order the book from Shop Skeptic" style="width: 207px; margin: 10px 0 0 5px;">View in iTunes</a></p>
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<p>His claims don&#8217;t end there, however. He also claims to have hated his step-father, George Lutz, with the fury of hellfire. He says George forced him and his mom to move to Amityville in the first place, and that George forced Danny to change his last name to his own, that he made Danny call him &#8220;Mr. Lutz&#8221; or &#8220;Sir,&#8221; and that George kept books on &#8220;hypnotism&#8221;, &#8220;Buddhism,&#8221; &#8220;mind control,&#8221; and &#8220;the occult&#8221; on his personal bookcase. He claims that both his mother, Kathy Lutz, and George on more than one occasion beat him and his siblings with wooden spoons then made them march about the house like soldiers. He claims there were repeated violent outbursts.</p>
<p>He claims to have tried to kill George, and that he&#8217;s happy George is now dead. He claims that he &#8220;believes there is such a thing as evil,&#8221; but it seems Danny&#8217;s evil is a device of Satan and not the human heart. He claims that after he begged his mother to let him leave home for years, she finally acquiesced when he was fifteen. He claims that before he left to go live in the desert, sometimes sleeping under the stars, sometimes on friends&#8217; couches, she made him a few peanut-butter and jelly sandwiches and washed some of his socks.</p>
<p>Depending on how you ask the question, somewhere around half of all Americans believe in the existence of ghosts. According to one poll done by CBS, 22% of Americans claim to have actually &#8220;seen or felt the presence&#8221; of one. Why do so many people believe? A desire to believe that the soul persists after death, a desire to believe that our presence will still be felt on earth after we&#8217;re gone, the desire that there should always be retribution for evil actions, and that humans have an evolutionary tendency to essentialize things, or believe that an &#8220;essence&#8221; exists beyond material substance.</p>
<p>From a skeptical perspective, if we take it as a given that Danny Lutz didn&#8217;t actually get thrown up the stairs by a poltergeist then we&#8217;re left with three possibilities.</p>
<p>The first is that Danny was hallucinating, but that&#8217;s probably not right. Today, Danny is a testy, sometimes explosive person, but there&#8217;s no evidence that he&#8217;s insane. He doesn&#8217;t see ghosts anymore (and, tellingly, hasn&#8217;t since he felt like he was in control of his own life), he holds down a job, he&#8217;s able to drive on the right side of the road, file his taxes, and carry on conversations like any normal person might. Not only that, Danny wasn&#8217;t the only person who claimed there were ghosts in the house.</p>
<p>The second explanation is that Danny has been perpetrating a con these last 40 years, but that&#8217;s even less likely. First of all, Danny hasn&#8217;t profited much from this. Unlike George and Kathy Lutz, who enjoyed a brief period of talk show appearances and world speaking tour, Danny sees the entire experience as a burden. He&#8217;s tried to keep the fact that he was one of the children in the Amityville house on the down-low for most of his life. He says that when people find out, he&#8217;s inundated by inane questions and mild forms of harassment. That, at least, isn&#8217;t terribly hard to believe.</p>
<p>The third explanation, which is both the most plausible and the most interesting, is that Danny really thinks he&#8217;s telling the truth, at least for the most part. We&#8217;ll note first that he has both a tendency to exaggerate and an accompanying tendency toward extreme credulity. Take the window smashing incident: Danny says that his hand was so swollen it looked like &#8220;a child&#8217;s baseball glove&#8221; and that it was &#8220;five times&#8221; its normal size. In an oddly touching reunion, when his mother&#8217;s friend Lorraine (a devout Catholic who has always believed Danny&#8217;s claims and declares that she gets visited by the spirits of various holy figures) takes out a crucifix which she says is embedded with a piece of wood from Jesus&#8217; cross, it never occurs to Danny to ask how she came into possession of such a priceless artifact, why it&#8217;s not in a museum, its provenance, etc. He simply mouths the word &#8220;wow&#8221; at the documentary crew. During another conversation (this time with reporter Laura DiDio, one of the first to cover these events back in the 1970s) we hear about a trip to the doctor in which Danny tells him how he witnessed George move a wrench with his mind in the garage&#8212;this was before Amityville, by the way. The doctor met with Danny&#8217;s mother for a few minutes afterwards and then she and her son drove silently home. Laura responds by pointing out &#8220;Right, &#8216;cause, most doctors would say&#8230;&#8221; but then Danny interrupts her, completing her sentence with an unhinged confidence: &#8220;Get a new boyfriend!&#8221; She replies, &#8220;Or&#8230;this kid needs tests.&#8221;</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b142PB" title="Order the book from Shop Skeptic"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-15/Scientific-Paranormal-Investigation.jpg" alt="Scientific Paranormal Investigation (book cover)" width="225" height="336" class="boxShadow" /></a>
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<p style="text-indent: 0;">A practical introduction to the techniques of skeptical scholarship and investigation. Joining classics like James Randi&#8217;s <em>Flim-Flam!</em> and Joe Nickell and Robert Baker&#8217;s <em>Missing Pieces</em>, Ben Radford&#8217;s <em>Scientific Paranormal Investigation</em> takes readers inside scientific skepticism&#8217;s proudest tradition. &#8230; <em>Scientific Paranormal Investigation</em> is highly recommended for anyone considering any sort of skeptical research. Indeed, it should almost be mandatory.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b142PB" title="Order the book from Shop Skeptic" style="width: 175px; margin: 10px 0 0 0;">ORDER THE BOOK</a></p>
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<p>Through a combination of the plasticity of memory (of your garden variety, but also the kind the world became familiar with through the tragic <em>Michelle Remembers</em> debacle), fossilized embellishments, groupthink, general credulity, a traumatic upbringing in which the existence of ghosts was accepted as fact, as well as several other factors, we can construct a reasonable hypothesis as to how Danny became convinced of things which are impossible. And the real question becomes: once you begin an invention of that scale, and the whole country watches, how do you stop it? Well, if you&#8217;re a child, maybe the sad truth is that you can&#8217;t. And so it becomes a part of you&#8212;invisible, but moving through you, influencing everything you think and do. You become haunted by it.</p>
<p>Many who believe in ghosts will ask: &#8220;Well, what&#8217;s the harm? What does it matter if I believe in ghosts? Who does it hurt?&#8221; It could be they really think they saw one, or have a friend who did. It could be they have a distorted idea of what it means to be open-minded. Maybe it&#8217;s mildly entertaining for them to believe it. Maybe it comforts them in some strange way. Maybe they don&#8217;t even know why they cling to the idea but can&#8217;t particularly be bothered to figure it out. I&#8217;d offer a compromise: hauntings are indeed very real. We can be haunted by our regrets, our past traumas, our unfulfilled ambitions, and the personas we&#8217;ve built for ourselves and now can&#8217;t escape. And maybe, for some, the aggregate entertainment and comfort of 150 million people or so is worth the permanent emotional disfigurement of one little boy, but of course it isn&#8217;t just the one. Anyway, it wouldn&#8217;t be worth it to me even if it was. One haunted child is one too many.</p>
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		<title>13-05-08</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Skepticcom/~3/xXJgy5VKymA/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/13-05-08/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 May 2013 07:00:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[eSkeptic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[atheism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bangladeshi bloggers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[free speech]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25197</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a nation whose laws protect free speech we easily forget that many places in the world hold atheism and the expression of religious skepticism to be a crime&#8212;a thought crime&#8212;punishable by jail. The following article, by Dr. Avijit Roy, reminds us that we need to be vigilant in our quest for freedom of speech everywhere in the world.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #dce6e6; padding: 20px;">
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em> eSkeptic</em>:</p>
<ul class="toc" style="padding-left: 20px;">
<li><a href="#GreatCourses"> <strong>New Teaching Company Great Course by Michael Shermer</strong>:<br />Skepticism 101: How to Think Like a Scientist </a></li>
<li><a href="#followLoxton"> <strong>Follow Daniel Loxton</strong>: The Rough Fist of Reason! </a></li>
<li><a href="#Skepticality"><strong>Skepticality Episode 207</strong>: Science, ASAP! </a></li>
<li><a href="#feature"> <strong>Feature Article</strong>: The Struggle of Bangladeshi Bloggers </a></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<div class="StoryBanner" style="height: 296px;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/shermer-great-courses-banner-2013.jpg" alt="Skepticism 101: How to Think Like a Scientist. A New Teaching Company Great Courses Series by Michael Shermer" width="548" height="296" style="border: 0;" />
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<h4 style="margin: 10px 0 20px 0; font: 26px/28px Georgia, serif; font-style: normal; color: #5e5e4c;"><strong>Skepticism 101:<br />How to Think Like a Scientist</strong><br /><small>a new <em>Great Courses</em> series by Michael Shermer</small></h4>
<div style="display: block; width: 195px; float: left; margin: 0 20px 5px 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/Shermer.gif" alt="Michael Shermer" width="185" height="245" class="boxShadow" /></div>
<p style="font: 16px/24px Georgia, serif;"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal; color: #5e5e4c;"> N</span>obel prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman said, &#8220;The first principle is that you must not fool yourself&#8212;and you are the easiest person to fool.&#8221; These words are no less insightful today than they were when he wrote them in 1985. Despite our best efforts, we are all vulnerable to believing things without using logic or having proper evidence&#8212;and it doesn&#8217;t matter how educated or well read we are. Our brains seem to be hardwired to have our beliefs come first and explanations for our beliefs second. And although we are skilled at recognizing the cognitive biases in other people&#8217;s thinking, we often have blinders on when it comes to our own.</p>
<p>But there is a method for avoiding these pitfalls of human nature, and it&#8217;s called <em>skepticism</em>. By using rational inquiry and seeing subjects from a scientific perspective, we can approach even the most sensitive claims with clear eyes to ultimately arrive at the truth. And today, the need for skepticism has never been more dire as superstition and magical thinking experience a resurgence in our society and around the world.</p>
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<p>Order a Digital Download of Michael Shermer&#8217;s 18-lecture series <em>Skepticism 101: How to Think like a Scientist</em> and pay only <strong>$24.95</strong> (reg. <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">$99.95</span>). On CD for only <strong>$39.95</strong> (reg. <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">$149.95</span>)</p>
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<p>Professor Michael Shermer of Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University calls the hallmarks of skepticism the &#8220;best tools ever devised in human history for thinking about anything,&#8221; including life&#8217;s biggest questions. In <em>Skepticism 101: How to Think like a Scientist</em>, he reveals how to use these concepts and techniques to better comprehend the world around you. Over the course of <strong><a href="http://www.thegreatcourses.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=9388&amp;ai=83709" style="font-size: 14px;">18 THOUGHT-PROVOKING LECTURES</a></strong> that will surprise, challenge, and entertain you, you will learn how to think, not just what to think&#8212;and you&#8217;ll come to understand why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.</p>
<h4>A Scientific Approach to Life</h4>
<p>For the skeptic, the word &#8220;science&#8221; is used in the traditional sense and in a broader context that refers to the scientific method and its systematic and empirical way of looking at the world. <em>Skepticism 101</em> outlines how science works and illuminates how it can help us differentiate between real science and pseudoscience, as well as between &#8220;scientific&#8221; history and pseudohistory&#8212;distinctions that have serious educational and political implications.</p>
<p>Fascinating case studies illustrate how you can apply the methods of skepticism to detect specious claims and faulty logic in any scenario you encounter. Among the topics you&#8217;ll inspect are</p>
<ul>
<li>the methodology employed by Holocaust deniers;</li>
<li>arguments made by proponents of creationism;</li>
<li>the biology of near-death experiences and the sensed-presence effect;</li>
<li>psychic abilities and other &#8220;paranormal&#8221; phenomena; and</li>
<li>how UFOlogists differ from mainstream scientists engaged in SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.</li>
</ul>
<h4>How Thinking Goes Wrong</h4>
<p>As you learn how our brains work to form beliefs, you&#8217;ll examine the classic fallacies of thought that lead us to experience mistakes in thinking&#8212;particularly when it comes to finance&#8212;and to form bad arguments in favor of our beliefs. You&#8217;ll discover numerous ways even smart people deceive themselves.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>After-the-fact reasoning</strong>: A form of superstition that attributes an outcome to a previous action&#8212;such as a baseball player who believes his two home runs are the result of his not shaving</li>
<li><strong>Coincidences</strong>: Commonly seen as deeply significant, but actually nothing more than the laws of probability at work</li>
<li><strong>The either/or phenomenon</strong>: A tendency to dichotomize the world in a way that says if you discredit one position, the observer is forced to accept the other</li>
<li><strong>Tautology or redundancy</strong>: Occurs when the conclusion or claim is merely a restatement of one of the premises</li>
</ul>
<p>You&#8217;ll explore how we maintain and reinforce our beliefs through a number of powerful biases that not only distort precepts to fit our preconceived concepts, but lead us to resist other viewpoints. From confirmation bias to hindsight bias to attribution bias, over a dozen of these cognitive heuristics are presented in this course to help you recognize them and avoid falling prey to them in the future.</p>
<h4>Why You Believe What You Believe</h4>
<p>Is there a God? Is there life after death? Is there a basis for morality without God? <em>Skepticism 101</em> doesn&#8217;t shy away from controversial questions, nor does it give final answers. What it offers are methods and hard evidence for rationally evaluating various claims, positions, and &#8220;weird things&#8221;&#8212;as skeptics call unlikely claims with only anecdotal evidence&#8212;and an opportunity to understand why you believe what you believe.</p>
<div class="Attention" style="float: right; width: 225px; padding: 15px 15px 5px 15px; margin: 5px 0 10px 20px;">
<h5 style="margin:0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px;"><strong style="color:#f35100;">Order Two series<br />and SAVE up to $205</strong></h5>
<p>Save up to $205 when you buy two series together: Michael Shermer&#8217;s 18-lecture series <em>Skepticism 101: How to Think like a Scientist</em> along with Steven Novella&#8217;s 24-lecture series <em>Your Deceptive Mind: A Scientific Guide to Critical Thinking Skills</em>. Available in:</p>
<ul>
<li>Audio CD format, or</li>
<li>Digital Download.</li>
</ul>
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<p>You&#8217;ll peel back the layers of conspiracy theories to examine the psychological principles that interfere with our ability to reason clearly about major events, then you&#8217;ll explore the powerful psychological forces that lead seemingly normal people to become members of cults. You&#8217;ll also take an intriguing look at the psychology and neuroscience of religion, including evidence that our religious preferences are a product of both our evolutionary heritage and our cultural histories.</p>
<h4>Lessons from the World&#8217;s Most Prominent Skeptic</h4>
<p>As the author of 10 books on science and skepticism, a monthly columnist for Scientific American, and the founding publisher of <em>Skeptic</em> magazine, Professor Shermer brings a wealth of experience, research, and insight to this course that few could match. This seasoned and captivating lecturer is a popular speaker on the TED Talks lecture circuit and is the executive director of the Skeptics Society, which sponsors the monthly <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/past-lectures/">Skeptics Distinguished Science Lecture Series</a> at the California Institute of Technology.</p>
<p>Perhaps you&#8217;ve seen a self-help guru inspire his audience with a fire walk or witnessed a psychic giving a reading and thought there must be a logical explanation. Using empirical evidence and a scientific approach, Professor Shermer reveals the very of-this-world explanations behind these and other seemingly out-of-this world phenomena.</p>
<p>But more importantly, in <em>Skepticism 101</em> he demonstrates how you can build a skeptical toolkit and apply this way of thinking to any claim or situation that arises.</p>
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<h4 style="color: #5a5b62; margin-top: 30px; font: 18px/20px Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #797b70; letter-spacing: 1px; font-style: normal; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal;">NEW ON SKEPTICBLOG.ORG</span><br />The Rough Fist of Reason!</h4>
<p style="color: #2f3232; font-size: 13px;">Daniel Loxton presents a 1916 detective story, &#8220;The Rough Fist of Reason&#8221;&#8212;one of the strange cases of a fictional skeptical investigator named Magnum, Scientific Consultant.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2013/05/07/rough-fist-of-reason/">READ THE POST</a></p>
</p>
<h4 style="color: #5a5b62; margin-top: 0;font: 18px/20px Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;">My Recent Token Skeptic Interview, Transcribed</h4>
<p style="color: #2f3232; font-size: 13px;">Daniel Loxton shares an excerpt from the transcript of a conversation he had with Kylie Sturgess for her Token Skeptic podcast on the topic of skeptical history and the foundational principles of the skeptical movement.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2013/05/05/my-recent-token-skeptic-interview-transcribed/">READ THE POST</a></p>
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<p class="caption">Mitchell Moffit</p>
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<h5 style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0;">Science, ASAP!<br /><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; font-style: normal; font-size: 10px; color: #555; font-weight: normal;"> SKEPTICALITY EPISODE 207</span></h5>
<p>Scientific laws, concepts, and theories can be difficult to understand. Thanks to the duo at <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/AsapSCIENCE">ASAP Science</a>, you can watch short, bite-sized videos on YouTube and learn some pretty cool facts. This week on <em>Skepticality</em>, Derek talks with Mitchell Moffit, one of the co-creators and producers of ASAP Science.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a style="margin: 0; width: 225px;" href="http://traffic.libsyn.com/skepticality/207_Skepticality.mp3"> <em>LISTEN TO EPISODE 207</em> </a></p>
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<h5 style="font-style: normal; margin-top: 5px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">About this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em></h5>
<p>In a nation whose laws protect free speech we easily forget that many places in the world hold atheism and the expression of religious skepticism to be a crime&#8212;a thought crime&#8212;punishable by jail. The following article, by Dr. Avijit Roy, reminds us that we need to be vigilant in our quest for freedom of speech everywhere in the world.</p>
<p><strong>Dr. Avijit Roy</strong> is a Bangladeshi blogger, published author, and prominent defender of the free thought movement in Bangladesh. He is an engineer by profession, but well-known for his writings in his self-founded site, <a href="http://www.mukto-mona.com/">Mukto-Mona</a>&#8212;an Internet congregation of freethinkers, rationalists, skeptics, atheists, and humanists of mainly Bengali and South Asian descent. As an advocate of atheism, science, and metaphysical naturalism, he has published seven Bangla books, and many of his articles have been published in magazines and journals. His latest book, <em>Obisshahser Dorshon (The Philosophy of Disbelief)</em>, has been critically well-received and is a popular book on science, skepticism, and rationalism.</p>
<p class="ImporantInfo">The photos appearing below have been used with permission.<br />See <a href="#Acknowledgements">Acknowledgements and Image Credits</a>.</p>
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<div style="height: 343px; border: 1px solid #666; border-top: 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/blogger_arrest_bdnews24.jpg" width="548" height="343" style="border: 0;" alt="The Bangladeshi Bloggers" />
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<h4>The Struggle of Bangladeshi Bloggers</h4>
<p class="Author">by Avijit Roy</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal;"> W</span>hat comes to mind when you scan the picture above? A gang of thieves who have been caught red-handed, or perhaps a picture that border guards posted of some poachers that they have recently detained. Alas, this is a group of brilliant writers known as the <em>Bangladeshi Bloggers</em>; the items that are displayed in front of them&#8212;the bloggers&#8217; own computers and laptops&#8212;have been seized and searched by Bangladesh&#8217;s law enforcement. What a nice catch our police force has made!</p>
<p>At times, I fall speechless when asked if I have anything to say about the sorry case of the writers in our country. So many readers like me read their writings with such devotion, using their articles as a means to enhance our knowledge as well as our own logic skills. Several weeks ago I was even personally acquainted with one of the accused &#8220;atheist&#8221; bloggers, Subrata Shuvo, who had wanted to publish one of his articles on <a href="http://www.mukto-mona.com/">Mukto-Mona</a> (a site for freethinkers of mainly Bengali and South Asian descent which I use to moderate). His proposed story was on Mr. Shahidul Haque [aka: Shahidul mama (Uncle)], who was a freedom fighter of 1971. It was through Shuvo&#8217;s writing that I learned how S. Haque was the major eyewitness of the war criminal Kader Mullah&#8217;s trial. Since S. Haque was a guerilla fighter, he saw the brutal genocide conducted under Kader Mullah&#8217;s command. Haque was also an activist in the protests and riots of 1966 and of 1969.</p>
<p>Before reading Subrata&#8217;s story, I never knew a person such as Mr. Haque had existed&#8212;a person who is so passionate, brilliant, and brave, a person who loves his country more than I do. This fearless soldier came back from Sweden just to testify against Kader Mullah, in the hope that he and countless others would finally achieve justice. &#8220;I won&#8217;t complain against the tribunal, but the sentence (that Kader Mullah was only given life in prison) is simply outrageous,&#8221; said Mr. Shahidul, where many had expected the vicious criminal to be hanged until death. Shubrata&#8217;s writings covered various topics, examples of which are titled, &#8220;Interview: Ferdousi Priyovashini on freedom fighters &#38; war children&#8221; and &#8220;Daily Shangram: their contribution on covering 1971&#8217;s 25th March.&#8221; Both articles were proof of the profound love that Shubrata felt for his homeland. There is no doubt that, because of youths like him, the Shahbag movement could awaken the people of Bangladesh.</p>
<p>And how does our government respond to his actions? Instead of praising or even acknowledging his patriotic contributions to the Bangladeshi community, they locked him behind bars. Their rationale? His &#8220;atheism.&#8221; After hearing about such horrific proceedings, I started reading Subrata&#8217;s blog on mukto-mona to see for myself why the government had taken such offense. To my surprise, I could not find a single entry indicative of the so-called <em>radical atheistic mindset</em> that he was being accused of. Well, Subrata did write an essay on Richard Dawkins, one of the famous atheists of our time. Even people with the vaguest interest in science are mesmerized with Dawkins&#8217; writing and logical analyses. Just as a skilled piano player spellbinds us with his keys or as a poet captivates us with his lines, Dawkins&#8217; logic entrances us with his in-depth explanations&#8230;and anyone can express gratitude towards him for this reason alone! I myself have done so several times. As I read Humyun Azad&#8217;s <em>Shab kichu nashtoder Adhikare jabe</em> (&#8220;All Will Go to the Rights of Evil&#8221;), or when I recite <em>Bangladesher Katha</em> (Story of Bangladesh), I encounter the same contentment as when I read Dawkins&#8217; works. Should such feelings really be measured on a spectrum separating atheism and theism? Even Einstein, arguably the most celebrated man on the planet, abandoned the idea of a personal savior, saying, &#160;&#8220;I don&#8217;t try to imagine a personal God; it suffices to stand in awe at the structure of the world, insofar as it allows our inadequate senses to appreciate it.&#8221; The beauty and sublimity of Einstein&#8217;s words will no doubt affect a person&#8217;s mind, regardless of if he is an outspoken atheist or deeply religious.</p>
<p>Russell Pervez is another arrested blogger famous for his unique writing style in various Bangla blogs. His writings always reminded me of the panache of the late Christopher Hitchens, because both writers used their immense knowledge in history, politics, science, literature, and religion to produce quality works. In a recent newspaper article Arif Jebtik, the eminent blogger and columnist, wrote an essay in an online newspaper (<em>BDNews24</em>) under the title <a href="http://bangla.bdnews24.com/opinion_bangla/article610046.bdnews"><em>Ekmatro Bikalpa Bhalo Manushder Shakriyata</em></a> (&#8220;The Only Alternative is the Activeness of a Few Good Men&#8221;)<sup><a href="#note01">1</a></sup>. He began by asking why an exceptional scholar such as Russel would leave his comfortable and respectable life in the U.S. to teach kids science in Bangladesh. Russell loved Bangladesh so much, that he left America for Bangladesh with his two year-old-child, despite the fact that his wife was still busy finishing her Ph.D. He took his son with him to book fairs, cultural programs, and to Shahid Minar to show gratitude towards our martyrs. He left America&#8217;s high-paying corporate jobs and took over teaching science in school instead. Soon, his wife joined him in Bangladesh, and she started teaching as well. One instant, Russell was busy spreading love for his country and knowledge about the freedom war of 1971; the next minute, he is in jail, accused of being an atheist, which has suddenly become a punishable crime in our country.</p>
<p>The day after Asif Mohiuddin&#8212;another reputed blogger&#8212;was arrested and interrogated by the detective branch about his earlier protests against the raised fees that Jagannath University&#8217;s students had been afflicted with. His writing&#8212;which was heavily critical of religious dogma, bigotry and superstition&#8212;and his political activism angered the government, as well as marked the beginning of the threats he received from fundamentalists. These threats eventually led to action in mid-January this year. Mohiuddin was brutally stabbed and severely injured by three suspected but unidentified Islamist fundamentalists. When Asif returned, the BTRC (The Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission) allegedly told the blog communities to stop spreading his messages. Complying with the threat, <em>Somewherein</em>, Bangladesh&#8217;s first Bangla language community blog site, <a href="http://www.dw.de/bangladesh-gags-award-winning-blogger/a-16697713">ultimately banned Mohiuddin</a>, who used to write there regularly (and was even 2012&#8217;s User Winner for &#8220;Best Social Activism Campaign&#8221; at the Deutsche Welle&#8217;s International Blog Awards)<sup><a href="#note02">2</a></sup>. Now he is arrested. While Asif has been an object of criticism for a number of groups, many young freethinkers in Bangladesh look to him as a nonconformist idol who has fought against the tyrannical state machinery until the very end. Asif&#8217;s last status and a forceful <a href="http://www.richarddawkins.net/discussions/2013/4/2/freethinking-in-bangladesh">writeup</a> (published in richarddawkins.net just before he got arrested) about the arrested bloggers reads:</p>
<blockquote><p>There was a time in the 17&#8211;18th century in Europe when women who excelled in knowledge, science and philosophy more than men were blamed for witchcraft and were burned alive by the churches and their theocratic government. Education and thus advancement for women has always been a threat for radicalism so this is why the church and the government indulged in burning the progressive women by branding them as witches. The exact same situation is in Bangladesh right now. The whole new generation who brought in a revolution in Bangla blog community with their advancement in science, philosophy and critical mind, who wrote against the religious fundamentalism and in favor of our great liberation war, freedom of speech, secularism and democracy will be burned alive just like witch-hunt in the late middle ages. I was threatened a lot when I spoke against government&#8217;s autocracy from so many other bloggers, but where are they now? Are they supporting the two headed snake government who acts secular but shelters the fundamentalists?&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Asif went to jail with his head held high. This was enough to give the government a reassuringly sharp slap in the face, courtesy of the blogger community.</p>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/blogger_der_mukti_or-Jail.jpg" alt="The teachers and students and online activists gathered in front of Dhaka Central Jail holding placards: 'Either release the arrested bloggers from jail or put us into it.'" width="500" height="296" class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">The teachers, students and online activists gathered in front of Dhaka Central Jail holding placards: &#8220;Either release the arrested bloggers from jail or put us into it.&#8221;</p>
</div>
<p>However, in the darkest of hours I still see a slither of light. Prominent citizens and intellectuals like Dr. Salahuddin Ahmed, Dr. Zillur Rahman Siddiqui, Dr. Sirajul Islam Chowdhury, Dr. Anisuzzaman, Dr. Ali Akbar Khan, Dr. Ajoy Roy, Qayyum Chowdhury, Ramendu Majumdar, Dr. Sarwar Ali, Advocate Sultana Kamal, Rasheda K Chowdhury, Khushi Kabir, M M Akash, Dr. Yasmin Haque, Dr. Iftekharuzzaman, Tarek Ali, Dr. Muhammad Zafar Iqbal, Shaheen Anam, and Robaet Ferdous stand boldly on our side. They have requested the government not to block free speech and free thinking<sup><a href="#note03">3</a></sup>. &#8220;Everyone has the right to practice their religion, but nobody should block free speech&#8221;, they proclaimed. It provides me with some solace that even when the free thinking spirit is being gagged, we still have so many enlightened people on our side. Several days later, the teachers and students and online activists formed a human chain in front of Dhaka Central Jail on April 22, demanding release of four bloggers. They gathered there wearing black badges and masks and holding placards, some of which read, &#8220;Either release the arrested bloggers from jail or put us into it.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note04">4</a></sup></p>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/demonstration_in_sylhet.jpg" alt="The rallies in Sylhet (a major city in north-eastern Bangladesh) are in support of Bangladeshi online writers and bloggers" width="500" height="375" class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">The rallies in Sylhet (a major city in north-eastern Bangladesh) are in support of Bangladeshi online writers and bloggers.</p>
</div>
<p>We also have the international support from a few influential organizations. IHEU, the world umbrella organization for freethinkers and humanists, issued a strong statement titled, &#8220;<a href="http://iheu.org/story/arrests-atheist-bloggers-shows-bangladesh-authorities-are-walking-trap-set-fundamentalists">Government is stepping right into the trap set by these Islamic fundamentalists</a>&#8221;<sup><a href="#note05">5</a></sup> . A few days later they issued another alert: &#8216;<a href="http://iheu.org/story/call-action-defend-bloggers-bangladesh">Call to action: Defend the bloggers of Bangladesh</a>&#8217;<sup><a href="#note06">6</a></sup> . Atheist Alliance Int&#8217;l (AAI) also demanded immediate release of the bloggers. The American Humanist Society also sent a petition to the U.S. Ambassador to get involved. <a href="http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-950923"><em>CNN</em></a>, <em><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22030388">BBC</a></em>, <em><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/03/bangladesh-bloggers_n_3009137.html">Huffington Post</a></em>, and <em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/04/04/ahmed_rajib_haider_asif_mohiuddin_farhana_ahmed_bloggers_in_bangladesh_face.html">Slate</a></em> published articles criticizing Bangladesh&#8217;s actions towards the bloggers. <em>Psychology Today</em> published an article on April 10, 2013 titled, &#8216;<a href="http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/our-humanity-naturally/201304/atheism-shouldnt-be-crime">Atheism Shouldn&#8217;t Be a Crime: Blasphemy should be celebrated, not outlawed</a>.&#8217; In it, Dave Niose reminds us of the obvious, yet necessary, point that atheism should not be criminalized:</p>
<blockquote><p>One of the many problems with the concept of protecting religion from defamation is that ideas (including religious ideas) cannot be defamed&#8212;only people can be defamed. If governments feel that any idea must be shielded from scrutiny, questioning, or even ridicule and satirical commentary, that idea must be extremely weak, or alternatively the society in question must be repressive.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>This is why blasphemy should not be criminalized, but celebrated. Those subversive individuals with the bad manners to remind us that no idea is sacred&#8212;that governmental defense of any theology necessarily weakens the legitimacy of both the government and the theology&#8212;should be thanked for making us think and for reminding us that we live in a free, open society.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Nonbelievers are valuable contributors to society and deserve no inferiority complex or stigmatization, yet their government encourages it. &#8220;Theistic supremacy&#8221; is too often the official governmental line, only because politicians find it easy to pander to religious voters by exalting religious belief. It may not be akin to throwing atheists in jail, but it still isn&#8217;t right.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Amnesty International issued a statement titled, &#8216;<a href="http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/ASA13/006/2013/en/d728c4d4-fb39-4711-af88-e592a012ca42/asa130062013en.html">Bangladesh: writers at risk of torture</a>&#8217;. Center for Inquiry (CFI), a New York-based global secular group has requested the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to &#8220;pressure the government of Bangladesh to reverse its policy of arresting atheist bloggers who were critical to religion.&#8221; <a href="http://www.centerforinquiry.net/docs/opp/CFI_Bangladesh_StateDepartment.pdf">CFI sent a letter</a> to Secretary Kerry and Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom Suzan Johnson Cook &#8220;to do all they can to raise public awareness of this situation.&#8221; Other influential organizations such as Free Society Institute of South Africa, Reporters Without Borders, Committee to Protect Journalists, Global Voice Advocacy, and several other bodies have also called for immediate release of the Bangladeshi bloggers and appealed to several other foreign authorities to press Bangladesh on the issue.<sup><a href="#note07">7</a></sup></p>
<p>Besides these organizations, many influential writers and activists, including Taslima Nasrin, Hemant Mehta, and Maryam Namazie, publicly expressed their support. Among them, the Iranian-born activist, commentator, broadcaster, and 2005&#8217;s <em>Secularist of the Year</em> award-winner, Ms. Namazie called for <a href="http://freethoughtblogs.com/maryamnamazie/2013/04/11/on-25-april-2013-we-stand-with-bangladeshi-bloggers-and-activists/">25 April to be an international day to defend Bangladesh&#8217;s bloggers and activists</a>.<sup><a href="#note08">8</a></sup> Dhaka University students and teachers have also called for a strike on April 25th to press for the release of the four bloggers. An international coalition of atheist and humanist organizations led by CFI also planned demonstrations in New York, Washington D.C., London, Ottawa, and other cities around the world on the same day<sup><a href="#note09">9</a></sup> . The rallies being organized by groups such as Center for Inquiry, American Atheists, and the International Humanist and Ethical Union were supposed to be held outside Bangladeshi embassies and consulates to demand the release of the bloggers who were arrested on charges of blasphemy.<sup><a href="#note10">10</a></sup></p>
<p>Then struck the Savar tragedy. An eight-story building collapsed on April 24th in Savar, a small town in the outskirts of Dhaka, killing at least 300 people and injuring more than 1,000. April 25th, the day after the tragedy, has been proclaimed the National Day of Mourning in Bangladesh. In effect, official protests to be led by CFI have been postponed to May 2nd. Dhaka University students and teachers also cancelled the strike anticipated for the 25th of April.<sup><a href="#note11">11</a></sup></p>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/protest_CFI.jpg" alt="Worldwide Protest led by the Center for Inquiry (CFI) on May 2nd held outside the embassy of Bangladesh in Washington D.C." width="500" height="375" class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">Worldwide Protest led by the Center for Inquiry (CFI) on May 2nd held outside the embassy of Bangladesh in Washington D.C.</p>
</div>
<p>However, several freethinking groups, including the American Atheists and Secular Coalition for America, decided to continue with the protests that were originally planned for April 25th, since the day had already been declared &#8220;International Day to Defend Bangladesh&#8217;s Bloggers.&#8221; American Atheists led protests at the consulate office in New York City and the embassy in Washington, D.C. (with assistance from the Secular Coalition for America). Defending his decision, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/on-faith/atheists-postpone-protests-after-bangladeshi-disaster/2013/04/25/3af7ccca-ade0-11e2-b240-9ef3a72c67cc_story.html">American Atheists&#8217; president David Silverman said</a>,</p>
<blockquote><p>My decision to continue&#8230;is based on the fact that I feel this is an urgent problem. People are in jail for doing nothing but self expression, and that is wholly immoral. This protest is weeks in the making, international in scope, and we aren&#8217;t canceling it because of an impromptu day of mourning imposed by the very people imprisoning atheists like us.</p>
</blockquote>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/american_atheists_protest2.jpg" alt="American Atheists rallies on Thursday (April 25) outside The Embassy of Bangladesh." width="500" height="375" class="boxShadow" /> <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/american_atheists_protest.jpg" alt="American Atheists rallies on Thursday (April 25) outside The Embassy of Bangladesh." width="500" height="375" class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">American Atheists rallies on Thursday (April 25) outside The Embassy of Bangladesh.</p>
</div>
<p>Maryam Namazie led another protest rally in Trafalgar Square in London. A day prior to the demonstrations, she wrote a powerful blog titled, &#8220;<a href="http://freethoughtblogs.com/maryamnamazie/2013/04/25/bangladesh/">While we remember the dead, let us also remember those fighting to live</a>.&#8221; In it, she expressed:</p>
<blockquote><p>Today 25 April has been declared a day of mourning in Bangladesh for the victims of the nation&#8217;s worst factory disaster. &#8230; Today is also the International Day to Defend Bangladesh&#8217;s Bloggers, four of whom are imprisoned, and more than 80 others who face death threats by Islamists. Here too their safety and lives have been ignored by the Government. In both these cases, the Government has failed to defend fundamental rights. Unfortunately, it is too late for the many garment factory workers. But there is still time to save Bangladesh&#8217;s bloggers. The Government must act before it is too late. On 25 April, whist we remember the dead, we must also remember those who are fighting to live.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Protests in Columbia, MO also ensued. Members of local groups of skeptics, atheists, secular humanists, and agnostics convened on Thursday at the University of Missouri&#8217;s campus to be part of the global movement.<sup><a href="#note12">12</a></sup></p>
<p>The worldwide demonstrations on May 2nd were very successful. Several humanist groups (including Center for Inquiry, CFI-Canada, and the British Humanist Association etc.) took part in places as far-reaching as the U.S., Canada (Ottawa, and New Brunswick), the UK, and Bangladesh. A few particularly moving pictures are displayed below.</p>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/human_chain_pressclub_may2_2013.jpg" alt="The activists and bloggers formed a human chain in front of Dhaka Press Club demanding release of four bloggers on May 2nd." width="500" height="342" class="boxShadow" /> <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-08/human_chain_pressclub2_may2_2013.jpg" alt="The activists and bloggers formed a human chain in front of Dhaka Press Club demanding release of four bloggers on May 2nd." width="500" height="375" class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">The activists and bloggers formed a human chain in front of Dhaka Press Club demanding release of four bloggers on May 2nd.</p>
</div>
<p>It is clear that <a href="http://opinion.bdnews24.com/bangla/2013/04/22/%E0%A6%AE%E0%A7%81%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B6-%E0%A6%93-%E0%A6%AE%E0%A7%81%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4/">international pressure against the Bangladeshi government is rising</a> (please refer to my piece which can be found in <em>BDNews24</em>, an online Bangla newspaper, and in <a href="http://mukto-mona.com/bangla_blog/?p=34903">Mukto-Mona Bangla Blog</a>). If Bangladesh does not change its course of action, it is clear that our country will not progress. Of course, only time will tell what direction it takes. If the bloggers are kept against their will, Bangladesh will be well on its way to being a fundamentalist autocracy; if it does, however, let the bloggers go in peace, there may be some hope for redemption. For now, the cards are in the government&#8217;s hands. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" /></p>
<div id="endMatter">
<h5>References</h5>
<ol>
<li id="note01">Arif Jebtik, <a href="http://bangla.bdnews24.com/opinion_bangla/article610046.bdnews"><em>Ekmatro Bikalpa Bhalo Manushder Shakriyata</em></a> (The only alternative is the activeness of a few good men), bdnews24.com (opinion); Published: 2013-04-04</li>
<li id="note02"><a href="http://www.dw.de/bangladesh-gags-award-winning-blogger/a-16697713">Bangladesh gags award-winning blogger</a>, <em>Deutsche Welle Report</em>.</li>
<li id="note03"><a href="http://www.banglanews24.com/detailsnews.php?nssl=cb3bf0f08fb7fb3dd1c5e560ec085283&amp;nttl=05042013186866">Muktachintar poth ruddho na korar ahobaan</a>, A Statement from prominent Citizens of Bangladesh; banglanews24.com, 05 Apr 2013</li>
<li id="note04"><a href="http://www.thedailystar.net/beta2/news/human-chain-in-front-of-jail-for-release-of-bloggers/">Human chain in front of jail for release of bloggers</a>, <em>The Daily Star</em>, April 23, 2013</li>
<li id="note05">A Statement from IHEU: <a href="http://iheu.org/story/arrests-atheist-bloggers-shows-bangladesh-authorities-are-walking-trap-set-fundamentalists">Arrests of &#8220;atheist bloggers&#8221; shows Bangladesh authorities are &#8220;walking into a trap set by fundamentalists&#8221;</a>, 4 April, 2013</li>
<li id="note06">IHEU Action Alert: <a href="http://iheu.org/story/call-action-defend-bloggers-bangladesh">Call to action: Defend the bloggers of Bangladesh</a>, 9 April, 2013</li>
<li id="note07"><a href="http://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/2013/04/17/us-body-against-blogger-s-arrest">US body against blogger&#8217;s arrest</a>, Staff Correspondent, bdnews24.com, Published: 2013-04-17</li>
<li id="note08">Maryam Namazie, <a href="http://freethoughtblogs.com/maryamnamazie/2013/04/11/on-25-april-2013-we-stand-with-bangladeshi-bloggers-and-activists/">On 25 April 2013 we stand with Bangladeshi bloggers and activists!</a>, <a href="http://freethoughtblogs.com/">http://freethoughtblogs.com</a></li>
<li id="note09"><a href="http://www.centerforinquiry.net/cfe/page/protest"> Worldwide Protests for Free Expression in Bangladesh</a>, Campaign for Free Expression, CFI.</li>
<li id="note10">Kimberly Winston, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/25/atheists-rally-around-jailed-bangladeshi-bloggers_n_3156555.html">Atheists Rally Around Jailed Bangladeshi Bloggers</a>, <em>Huffington Post</em>, Posted: April 25, 2013</li>
<li id="note11">Kimberly Winston , <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/on-faith/atheists-postpone-protests-after-bangladeshi-disaster/2013/04/25/3af7ccca-ade0-11e2-b240-9ef3a72c67cc_story.html">Atheists postpone protests after Bangladeshi disaster</a>, <em>The Washington Post</em>, April 25, 2013</li>
<li id="note12">Karyn Spory, <a href="http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/local/bloggers-imprisonment-sparks-free-speech-rallies/article_3d0ed108-ae9d-11e2-b409-10604b9f6eda.html">Bloggers&#8217; imprisonment sparks free-speech rallies</a>, <em>Columbia Daily Tribune</em>, Friday, April 26, 2013</li>
</ol>
<div id="Acknowledgements"><a name="Acknowledgements"></a><br />
<h5>Acknowledgements and Image Credits</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">The author thank Aldrin Malakar for translating portions of the Bengali articles and Trisha Ahmed for corrections and final proofreading.</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">The author also thanks Mr. Gazi Nasiruddin Ahmed (Khokan), the News editor of BDNews24 for giving permission to use a photo that was published in bdnews24.com on April 2nd, 2013. Thank you to Mr. Michael De Dora, the director of public policy office of Center for Inquiry (CFI) for giving permission to use photographs of the demonstration held outside the embassy of Bangladesh in Washington, D.C. on May 2. Thanks to David Silverman, the President of American Atheist, for his permission to use photos of the demonstration by American Atheist in front of the embassy of Bangladesh on April 25th, 2013. Special thanks to Sazu, Ekush Tapader and Shariful Hasan for giving permission to use the photos of the demonstration in Bangladesh from their respective Facebook pages.</p>
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		<title>What happens after we die?</title>
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		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer discusses the belief in life after death.
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		<title>The Sandy Hook Effect</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Skepticcom/~3/pONiyOxeJG4/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/the-sandy-hook-effect/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2013 22:42:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[reading room]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lanza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gun control]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gun violence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Hook Effect]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Hook event]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[violence prevention]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25175</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On December 14, 2012, 20-year old Adam Lanza broke into Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT, killing 20 children and six adults—and then himself—after first slaying his mother Nancy Lanza in their home. In this article from Skeptic magazine issue 18.1 (2013), Michael Shermer takes a look at why preventing highly improbable mass murders like that at Sandy Hook Elementary School is impossible, and discusses what social science research shows are the most reliable means to decreasing violence overall.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h4>Preventing Highly Improbable Mass Murders like that at Sandy Hook Elementary School Is Impossible, but There Are Things We Can Do to Decrease Violence</h4>
<p>
	On December 14, 2012, 20-year old Adam Lanza broke into Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT, killing 20 children and six adults&#8212;and then himself&#8212;after first slaying his mother Nancy Lanza in their home. He used a .223 caliber Bushmaster XM-15 semi-automatic rifle in the killing spree, but also had on him a 10mm Glock 20 SF handgun and a 9mm SIG Sauer handgun. He had a shotgun in his car, and at home police found a .45 Henry repeating rifle, a .30 Enfield rifle, and a .22 Marlin rifle, the latter of which he used to shoot his mother in the head four times.<sup><a href="#note01">1</a></sup> All of the guns were legally owned and registered, and preliminary reports note that Nancy Lanza was a gun enthusiast who owned at least a dozen firearms and taught her son how to shoot them at gun clubs in her neighborhood.<sup><a href="#note02">2</a></sup> Every one of the victims is a heartbreaking story, perhaps best captured by the sole survivor in a first-grade classroom who, after narrowly escaping Lanza&#8217;s bullets by playing dead, exclaimed to her mother, &#8220;Mommy, I&#8217;m okay, but all my friends are dead.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note03">3</a></sup> Just imagining a first grader uttering those words is beyond horrific.
</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 255px; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px;">
	<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol18n01.html"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/images/magv18n01_cover.jpg" width="245" height="323" alt="Skeptic magazine, vol 18, no 1 (cover)" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption">This article appeared in <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol18n01.html">Skeptic magazine 18.1</a> (2013). </p>
</div>
<p>
	The response to the tragedy was as emotional as it was predictable, with pundits and the public demanding stricter gun-control measures and more funding for mental-health research and facilities.<sup><a href="#note04">4</a></sup> The NRA called on Congress to appropriate enough funds to post armed police officers at every school in America.<sup><a href="#note05">5</a></sup> President Obama pronounced: &#8220;We&#8217;re going to have to come together and take meaningful action to prevent more tragedies like this, regardless of the politics,&#8221; then vowed to do everything in his power to prevent such an event happening again, &#8220;Because what choice do we have? We can&#8217;t accept events like this as routine.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note06">6</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	That such reactions are emotionally understandable should not distract us from having an objective discussion over whether or not the national obsession over highly improbable events like Sandy Hook is the proper use of our time, energy, and resources toward the overall goal of reducing violence in our society. In fact, the evidence overwhelmingly shows that contra President Obama&#8217;s characterization, such events are far more random than they are routine. They are what Nassim Taleb calls Black Swan events.<sup><a href="#note07">7</a></sup> In this context I shall refer to them as <em>Sandy Hook Events&#8212;high profile, improbable, rare and unpredictable mass murders</em>. We cannot and never will be able to predict <em>Sandy Hook Events</em>. We can <em>postdict</em> them, looking for factors common to the killers, but the most we can ever do is make statistically-based generalizations about the likelihood of a Sandy Hook event happening somewhere sometime in the future.
</p>
<p>
	This does not mean we can or should do nothing. It is, perhaps, ironically fitting that the same day as the Sandy Hook tragedy a Chinese man with a knife stabbed 22 children and one adult outside a primary school in the village of Chengping in Henan Province in central China, resulting in <em>zero fatalities</em>.<sup><a href="#note08">8</a></sup> There really is a difference between a gun and a knife, and in this case that difference is measurable in the number of survivors. However, it is doubtful that Americans would vote to change our government into a Chinese-like authoritarian regime in which controlling guns is possible but at the considerable cost of other freedoms. Nevertheless, we can build a science-based rational response in the form of a two-pronged approach: (1) bottom-up actions by private citizens, experts, and scientists to identify those most likely to commit mass murder and try to reduce the odds that they will do so through various interventions (while recognizing that we can never prevent them entirely); and (2) top-down measures by government, police, and law enforcement agencies to continue the centuries-long trend in the overall decline of violence.
</p>
<p class="Attention">
	Click any graph in this article to download larger versions in PDF. <br />
	A single PDF (209 kb) contains all graphs.
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Sandy-Hook-Effect/Sandy-Hook-Effect-figures-1-5-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Sandy-Hook-Effect-figures-1-5-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Sandy-Hook-Effect/fig1.png" width="505" height="424" alt="Figure 1: Mass Shootings in the United States, 1980-2010, tracking incidents, offenders, and victims. In any given year the number of each bounces around wildly, but the overall averages come out to around 20 mass murders and 100 victims per annum." class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 1</strong>: <strong>Mass Shootings in the United States, 1980&#8211;2010</strong>, tracking incidents, offenders, and victims. In any given year the number of each bounces around wildly, but the overall averages come out to around 20 mass murders and 100 victims per annum.</p>
</div>
<h5>
	Murder v. Mass Murder<br />
</h5>
<p>
	According to the FBI&#8217;s crime reports, between 2007 and 2011 the U.S. experienced an annual average of 13,700 homicides, with guns responsible for 67.8% of those.<sup><a href="#note09">9</a></sup> That&#8217;s an average of 9,289 people shot dead by a gun, or 774 a month, 178 a week, 25 a day, or a little more than one per hour. It&#8217;s a disquieting thought that every hour of every day someone is shot to death. By contrast, according to James Alan Fox, Northeastern University Professor of Criminology, Law, and Public Policy, between 1980 and 2010 there was an average of 20 mass murders per year (defined by the FBI as &#8220;a number of murders [four or more] occurring during the same incident, with no distinctive time period between the murders&#8221;<sup><a href="#note10">10</a></sup>) with an average annual death toll of about 100, or 5 per shooting.<sup><a href="#note11">11</a></sup> Figure 1 graphs Fox&#8217;s data. This averages out to one mass murder every 2.6 weeks, which when clustered in time and covered in explosive media attention intuitively feels like a veritable plague of violence. But an average annual death rate of 100 constitutes a mere 0.01% of the average homicide total. As well, predicting which week, much less which day and where the mass murders will occur is not possible. If we want to save lives by preventing gun deaths, the larger problem of individual homicides, suicides, and accidents is the place to begin, not <em>Sandy Hook Events</em>.
</p>
<p>
	A 1998 study published in the <em>Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery</em> on &#8220;Injuries and Deaths Due to Firearms in the Home,&#8221; stated that &#8220;every time a gun in the home was used in a selfdefense or legally justifiable shooting, there were four unintentional shootings, seven criminal assaults or homicides, and 11 attempted or completed suicides.&#8221; In other words, a gun is 22 times more likely to be used in a criminal assault, an accidental death or injury, a suicide attempt, or a homicide, than it is for self-defense. &#8220;Guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note12">12</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	The raw figures are staggering. According to the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, in 2010 a total of 19,392 U.S. residents killed themselves with a firearm;<sup><a href="#note13">13</a></sup> in 2010 there were 11,078 gun-caused homicides and in 2011 there were 55,544 gun-caused injuries treated in emergency rooms;<sup><a href="#note14">14</a></sup> in 2010, 606 people died by unintentional shooting, while in 2011 14,675 were wounded in an unintentional shooting.<sup><a href="#note15">15</a></sup> Ironically&#8212;and tragically&#8212; the fate of Nancy Lanza was that of most victims of a gun-homicide: killed by her own gun in her own home by someone she knew. The problem is murder, not mass murder; individual homicides, not <em>Sandy Hook Events</em>.
</p>
<h5>
	Who Are These Mass Murderers?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	Perhaps if we knew more about mass murderers it would ameliorate the problem. Not likely. The pop diagnosis of Adam Lanza as having &#8220;Asperger&#8217;s syndrome,&#8221; for example, whether true or not is irrelevant and unhelpful because millions of people have Asperger&#8217;s and related disorders on the Autism spectrum, and 99.99% of them will never commit an act of mass murder. So the moment we turn to diagnostic labels we risk a plethora of Type I false positive errors of suspecting or accusing innocent people.
</p>
<p>
	Perhaps a suite of characteristics or symptoms can help narrow the search. For example, research shows that three of the most common characteristics of mass murderers are:<sup><a href="#note16">16</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	1. <strong>PSYCHOPATHY OR MENTAL ILLNESS</strong>. Although some forms of mental illness such as schizophrenia have been identified as possible triggers of violent behavior, the best candidate we have for a psychological condition that leads to violence and criminal behavior is psychopathy. According to Robert Hare (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1572304510/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1572304510&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Without Conscience</em></a>), Simon Baron Cohen (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465031420/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0465031420&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Science of Evil</em></a>), and Kevin Dutton (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0374291357/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0374291357&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Wisdom of Psychopaths</em></a>), the latter of whom I queried for this article, &#8220;estimates of the incidence of psychopathy tend to vary from 1&#8211;3 percent in men and 0.5&#8211;1 per cent in women,&#8221; and in prison populations, &#8220;around 50 percent of the most serious crimes on record&#8212;crimes such as murder and serial rape, for instance&#8212;are committed by psychopaths.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note17">17</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	2. <strong>A SENSE OF VICTIMIZATION OR AN IDEOLOGICAL CAUSE</strong>. The 32-year old Norwegian Anders Behring Breivik is a case in point: On July 22, 2011, he opened fire on participants in a Labour Party youth camp on Utoya island after exploding bombs in Oslo, resulting in a death toll of 76, the worst tragedy in Norway since the Second World War. He said he did it to &#8220;send a strong message to the people and cause maximum amount of damage to the Labour Party to stop a deconstruction of Norwegian culture and mass-import of Muslims.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note18">18</a></sup> Perpetrators of violence always have their reasons, including taking the law into their own hands when the state won&#8217;t do what they think it should (more on this below in the real causes of the decline of violence).
</p>
<p>
	3. <strong>THE DESIRE FOR FAME AND GLORY</strong>. Forget American Idol, if you want instant media coverage there is no surer way to gain it in real time than by killing innocent people, especially children. In the case of the Chinese man who stabbed 22 children&#8212;reported to be &#8220;a long-term epilepsy sufferer&#8221; named Min Yongjun who was also &#8220;psychologically affected by rumors of the upcoming end of the world&#8221;&#8212;was quoted as saying: &#8220;I learned from the media two years ago that killing children would get me on TV.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note19">19</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	There are additional factors that increase the probability of a <em>Sandy Hook Event</em>. According to Columbia University Medical School psychiatrist Paul S. Applebaum: &#8220;There are characteristics that when they occur together markedly increase the risk of violent behavior: youth, male gender, substance abuse, paranoid view of the world, hostility and difficulty controlling anger, and preoccupation with weapons. Put those things together and you have identified a group of people who are at much greater risk than the average person of committing a violent act.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note20">20</a></sup> The problem, Applebaum continues, &#8220;is that there are tens of thousands of people who fall into that category and the majority of them will never commit a violent act, and that&#8217;s the limit of our predictive abilities today.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note21">21</a></sup>
</p>
<h5>
	The Prediction and Prevention Problem<br />
</h5>
<p>
	Psychopathy is subject to the same false-positive problem. As a back-of-the-envelope calculation, let us employ the mid-range figure of 2 percent psychopathy for men only. The current U.S. population is approximately 314 million, about half of which are males, so if 2% of the 157 million American men are psychopathic, this results in a figure of 3,140,000. Most of these men are not violent; in fact, as Kevin Dutton reveals in his book, many successful CEOs, politicians, Wall Street traders, and special forces soldiers employ their psychopathic personality traits of tough-minded and emotionless impulsive decision making to great effect in the rough-and-tumble world of business, politics, and war. So let&#8217;s conservatively estimate that if only 1% of these 3,140,000 men commit any kind of violent act, this results in 31,400 acts of violence per year, a nontrivial number. If only 1% of those violent acts involve murders, this leaves us with 314 tragic deaths caused by psychopaths. And, finally, if only 1% of those murderous violent acts involves killing four or more people in one setting, this results in a rate of 3.14 <em>Sandy Hook Events</em> per year in America. Add schizophrenia, severe depression, and paranoid delusion into the formula and we quite likely have accounted for most of the <em>Sandy Hooks Events</em>.
</p>
<p>
	Perhaps we can just administer the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI) developed by the Emory University psychologist Scott Lilienfeld to everyone and then monitor those who score above a certain number? No. The PPI consists of a wide swath of personality dimensions measured by 187 questions, factor analyzed into a cluster of combined characteristics, such as Machiavellian Egocentricity, Impulsive Nonconformity, Blame Externalization, Carefree Nonplanfulness, and the like. The problem is that most of us have most of these personality traits in some measure. As Lilienfeld told Dutton in an interview, &#8220;You and I could post the same overall score on the PPI. Yet our profiles with regard to the eight constituent dimensions could be completely different. You might be high on Carefree Nonplanfulness and correspondingly low on Coldheartedness, whereas for me it might be the opposite.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note22">22</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	An additional prediction problem arises from the fact that we find such factors at work in most mass murderers and terrorists <em>after the fact</em>. But <em>before the fact</em>, predicting which individuals who harbor such characteristics will act on them is impossible, and any attempt to target such individuals would result in trapping in our net millions of innocent people who would never act on such impulses. For example, researchers at the University of Connecticut announced on December 28, 2012 that they had obtained a sample of Adam Lanza&#8217;s DNA in order to search for a possible mass murderer mutation.<sup><a href="#note23">23</a></sup> This is problematic on several levels. First, it is virtually impossible that violent behavior is caused by a single gene, since no complex behavior studied to date is. The most that can be hoped for is a complex set of genes that code for violent tendencies, which may then be triggered by any number of environmental factors. As such, it is entirely possible&#8212; highly probable in fact&#8212;that millions of people could have such a gene complex and never act on their violent tendencies, and then we&#8217;re back to the problem of Type I false-positive errors in our search, and in the process violate the civil liberties of many innocent people.
</p>
<p>
	What about the brains of mass murderers? Harvard University neuroscientist Joshua W. Buckholtz has studied CAT scans and MRIs of the brains of those who commit acts of violence. He explained in an interview on a PBS <em>Frontline</em> special <em>After Newtown</em>: &#8220;When we compare people who commit violent acts against those who do not commit violent acts, some brain differences begin to emerge&#8212; differences in brain circuitry involved in emotional arousal and emotion regulation.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note24">24</a></sup> For example, the prefrontal cortex normally regulates the amygdala&#8212; our brain&#8217;s emotion center that becomes active whenever a threat is perceived. If the threat is not real, the prefrontal cortex overrides amygdala activity, resulting in no response. But if the circuit between the prefrontal cortex and the amygdala is broken or miswired, the inhibitory signals may be blocked or rerouted, resulting in a false positive response of violence when none was called for, as Buckholtz explained: &#8220;In those folks it seems like the circuit is broken in such a way that they are more likely to respond with greater amygdala activity and greater emotional arousal when they think they are being faced with some kind of threat.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note25">25</a></sup> The problem with brain scan research is that such patterns emerge only after examining a large number of brains, from which computers generate statistical averages that do not apply to any one brain.<sup><a href="#note26">26</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	Additional mass murder myths abound that confound the understanding of prediction and prevention. According to the aforementioned criminologist James Alan Fox:<sup><a href="#note27">27</a></sup>
</p>
<ul>
<li>
		Mass shootings are not on the rise, but have held steady over three decades, randomly clustering in time to trick our brains into finding a pattern of increase where none actually exists.
	</li>
<li>
		Mass murderers do not snap and kill indiscriminately, but &#8220;plan their assaults for days, weeks, or months. They are deliberate in preparing their missions and determined to follow through, no matter what impediments are placed in their path.&#8221;
	</li>
<li>
		Enhanced background checks do not keep dangerous weapons away from mass murderers because &#8220;Most mass murderers do not have criminal records or a history of psychiatric hospitalization. They would not be disqualified from purchasing their weapons legally.&#8221; And even if they could not legally purchase the firearms needed, &#8220;mass killers could always find an alternative way of securing the needed weaponry, even if they had to steal from family members or friends.&#8221;
	</li>
<li>
		Restoring the federal ban on assault weapons will not stop <em>Sandy Hook Events</em> because &#8220;The overwhelming majority of mass murderers use firearms that would not be restricted by an assault-weapons ban. In fact, semiautomatic handguns are far more prevalent in mass shootings.&#8221;
	</li>
<li>
		Mass murderers are unlikely to be deterred by increasing security in public places because &#8220;Most security measures will serve only as a minor inconvenience for those who are dead set on mass murder,&#8221; as in the case of Columbine, whose armed guard was unable to stop Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold.
	</li>
</ul>
<h5>
	Is There Nothing We Can Do?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	If we cannot predict or prevent Sandy Hook events, what can we do? I suggest three evidence-based actions we can take right now that could save lives.
</p>
<p>
	1. <strong>RUN, HIDE, OR FIGHT</strong>. There is an excellent video on self-defense on YouTube called &#8220;<a href="http://youtu.be/5VcSwejU2D0">Run. Hide. Fight. Surviving an Active Shooter Event</a>.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note28">28</a></sup> It is for people in offices, schools, or any public facility in which gunfire is heard. After calling 911, the first thing to do is to <em>run</em>&#8212;escape from the building as quickly as possible, taking as many people with you as you can. If people hesitate, encourage them to join you but leave them behind if they do not move at once. You have seconds to act and cannot afford to delay. If there is no clear escape route, <em>hide</em> underneath a desk, behind a wall or door, or inside any container in which you can fit. If you are in a room, lock the door and barricade it with furniture. Remain as quiet as possible and silence your cell phone. If these two actions do not work and you encounter the shooter, <em>fight</em> with anything and everything you&#8217;ve got&#8212;a chair, purse, fist, leg, anything you can throw, swing, or hit with. Do not hesitate and attack like your life depends on it because it does. At that moment you will likely either be killed or stop the killer long enough for others to join in.
</p>
<p>
	2. <strong>A NATIONAL MENTAL HEALTH HOTLINE</strong>. A joint effort between such governmental agencies as the National Institutes of Mental Health, the American Psychological Association, the Association for Psychological Science, the American Psychiatric Association, and the FBI could result in a national mental health hotline for potentially violent psychopaths, schizophrenics, and severely depressed and delusional people who <em>also</em> exhibit behaviors indicative of violence <em>and</em> purchase large quantities of firearms and ammo. A <em>Mother Jones</em> study on &#8220;A Guide to Mass Shootings in America,&#8221;<sup><a href="#note29">29</a></sup> for example, found that more than half (38 out of 62) were committed by individuals with mental health problems who had exhibited signs noticed by family, friends, or colleagues indicative that something was wrong and that violence of some kind was possible.<sup><a href="#note30">30</a></sup> Depression, delusion, and paranoia were common features of the killers in this cohort, and 36 of them committed suicide at the end of their killing spree, with another seven opting for &#8220;suicide by cop&#8221; in a final <em>G&#246;tterd&#228;mmerung</em> with the police. A national database of people reported as: (1) exhibiting a set of symptoms of mental disturbance such as acute depression, schizophrenia, extreme psychopathy, paranoid delusions, <em>and</em> (2) a clear sign of potential violence such as comments or letters or journal entries about killing people, <em>and especially</em> (3) the purchase of multiple weapons, ammunition, body armor, and other equipment, might be cause for authorities to at least pay a visit to the residence of the person in question.
</p>
<p>
	A case in point is James Holmes, the Aurora, Colorado killer, who showed clear signs of a mental breakdown during the May to July timeframe in which he amassed an arsenal of 6,295 rounds of ammunition, two handguns, a shotgun, an assault rifle, ballistic gear, laser sights and holsters, and tear gas canisters, all delivered to his doorstep.<sup><a href="#note31">31</a></sup> Competent data analysts working with such a national database could easily ferret out potential mass murderers. This would be something like a citizens watch program in which all of us should be paying attention to the people around us, most notably our immediate family, friends, and colleagues. On the day I was writing this section (January 7, 2013), for example, ABC News reported that an eastern Alabama high school teacher turned over to the police a student journal she found that &#8220;contained several plans that looked like potential terrorist attacks, and attacks of violence and danger on the school,&#8221; including targeting six students and one teacher by name. That young man, a 17-year old named Derek Shrout, identified in the media as a white supremacist targeting five black students and one gay student, was promptly arrested on attempted assault charges after police searched his home and found numerous cans filled with pellets that, according to the sheriff, were just &#8220;a step or two away from being ready to explode,&#8221; adding that &#8220;the system worked and thank God it did. We avoided a very bad situation.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note32">32</a></sup> What system? A mass murder was averted thanks entirely to the bottom-up actions of an alert citizen, not the topdown measures of authorities.
</p>
<p>
	Of course, the civil liberties of such individuals would need to be protected, and law enforcement agencies would have to be leery of false charges made out of revenge against rivals, but surely someone reported by close friends, family, or colleagues as having severe mental health issues, who has made violent threats involving mass murder, and who has purchased an arsenal of firearms and ammunition, might at least alert local authorities to be extra vigilant.
</p>
<p>
	3. <strong>GUN CONTROL</strong>. This is the most talked about option for preventing <em>Sandy Hook Events</em>, but it&#8217;s a complicated option with numerous permutations. First, the most common weapon of all homicides and mass murders is a handgun, and the United States Supreme Court ruled in 2008 (in <em>District of Columbia v. Heller</em>)<sup><a href="#note33">33</a></sup> and again in 2010 (<em>McDonald v. Chicago</em>)<sup><a href="#note34">34</a></sup> that the Second Amendment&#8217;s guarantee of the right to &#8220;keep and bear arms&#8221; includes handguns. And once the Supreme Court has ruled on a case&#8212;twice in this instance&#8212;the chances of overturning such rulings are next to nil. In any case, with over 300 million guns already in the homes and on the streets of America, short of turning the United States into the <em>Stasi</em> States wherein police sweep through every home, business, garage, shack, storage unit, cabin, car, and container in every nook and cranny of every state in the union (potentially resulting in Ruby Ridge and Waco-type confrontations with those who resist), gun bans will most likely be honored by the people who least need them and ignored by those who need them most. Even talk of stricter gun control laws following the Sandy Hook massacre has driven gun sales through the roof. A gun show in Ontario, California the first weekend of 2013, for example, was overflowing with customers lined up outside the door to get in, and those who made it inside were snapping up firearms and ammunition at record rates. One customer noted &#8220;I&#8217;ll tell you right now, Obama is the No. 1 gun salesman in the nation. The NRA should give him an award.&#8221; The FBI reported that December, 2012 was the biggest month in their history for the number of firearm background checks conducted, at 2.78 million.<sup><a href="#note35">35</a></sup> In one month alone nearly three million people purchased guns.
</p>
<p>
	Here is a typical suggestion for a reasonable gun control measure, from the aforementioned psychiatrist Paul Applebaum:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>
		Even in the face of our difficulties of predicting and preventing violent behavior in general, there is an approach we can take today that will markedly reduce the likelihood of horrific crimes like what occurred at Newtown, CT, where we remove from easy access weapons that are designed solely for the purpose of killing large numbers of people&#8212;semiautomatic weapons, high-volume clips, bullets intended to seriously maim and kill their victims. That could have an impact today while we wait for the science to improve, while we wait to have a better capacity to identify people who are likely to behave in violent ways.<sup><a href="#note36">36</a></sup>
	</p>
</blockquote>
<p>
	Let&#8217;s examine these options in more detail. Banning semi-automatic weapons is not likely to have a significant effect on <em>Sandy Hook Events</em> since most are committed by handguns, and the evidence for the effectiveness of bans on semi-automatic weapons on overall crime rates is mixed. Following the 10-year Federal Assault Weapons Ban enacted in the United States in 1994, the National Research Council (NRC) reviewed all academic studies of the assault weapon ban, concluding that the data &#8220;did not reveal any clear impacts on gun violence,&#8221; and noted, &#8220;due to the fact that the relative rarity with which the banned guns were used in crime before the ban&#8230;the maximum potential effect of the ban on gun violence outcomes would be very small.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note37">37</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	On the pro-gun side of the debate, John Lott, whom I spent a weekend with in Santa Fe, New Mexico at a conference and whose book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0226493660/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0226493660&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>More Guns, Less Crime</em></a> has been a steady flashpoint for controversy, argues that gun bans have the opposite effect than intended.<sup><a href="#note38">38</a></sup> Take Washington, D.C., he says. Before the ban on handguns was implemented in August of 1976, D.C. ranked 20th in murder rates out of the top 50 cities in America. After the gun ban, D.C. shot up to either #1 or #2, where year after year it held steady as &#8220;the murder capital of the nation,&#8221; as it as dubbed by the media. As a control experiment of sorts, after the Supreme Court decision in the 2008 Heller case overturned the D.C. gun ban, murder rates dropped and have continued to fall ever since. According to Lott, whose data is based primarily on crime statistics provided by the FBI, once the gun ban was lifted, homicide rates plummeted 42.1%, sexual assault rates dropped 14.9%, robbery excluding guns dropped 34.3%, robbery with guns plunged 58%, assault with a dangerous weapon excluding guns sank 11%, assault with a dangerous weapon using guns tumbled 35.6%, and total violent crime nosedived 31%, along with total property crimes decreasing a total of 10.7%.
</p>
<p>
	Why do more guns mean less crime? Lott says it is because it is hard to keep criminals from getting and keeping guns because gun bans are primarily obeyed by non-criminals. Criminals that already have guns do not turn them in, and potential criminals that want to get guns have no problem procuring them illegally on the street (and in any case most mass murderers obtained their guns legally). Lott cited several studies by criminologists who interviewed criminals in jail and collected data on the amount of time they spend casing a home before burglarizing it. In the U.K., where gun bans are much more prevalent than in the U.S., the criminals reported that they spend very little time casing a joint and that they don&#8217;t really care if someone is home or not because they know the residents won&#8217;t be armed (whereas they, of course, are armed). Their U.S. counterparts, by contrast, reported spending more than double the time casing a home before robbing it, explaining that they were waiting for the residents to leave. Why? They said that they were worried they would be shot.
</p>
<p>
	Lott has his critics , some of whom resort to ad hominem attacks (such as Piers Morgan and Alan Dershowitz<sup><a href="#note39">39</a></sup>), while others more thoughtfully challenge his data.<sup><a href="#note40">40</a></sup> I agree with Lott that gun bans have done little to reduce crime, at least in the United States, but I disagree with Lott that the lifting of gun bans is the cause of the decline of violence in the 1990s and 2000s. That cause is hotly disputed, with everything from the Freakonomics theory (that <em>Roe v. Wade</em> led to fewer unwanted children being born in the 1970s and thus fewer kids growing up in poverty and becoming criminals in the 1990s),<sup><a href="#note41">41</a></sup> to more police on the beat and assorted other factors well summarized by Steven Pinker in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143122010/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0143122010&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Better Angels of Our Nature</em></a>.<sup><a href="#note42">42</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	The most cited study in support of gun control comes out of Australia following a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people were murdered. State governments agreed to ban semiautomatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles. A 2006 follow-up study measured &#8220;changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population.&#8221; The data showed that in the 18 years before the ban there were 13 mass shootings, but in the decade following the ban there were 0. Statistically significant declines were also found for total firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and firearm homicides (but not for unintentional firearm deaths). There was also &#8220;no evidence of substitution effect for suicides or homicides,&#8221; and &#8220;the rates per 100,000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws.&#8221; The authors concluded:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>
		Australia&#8217;s 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides. Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides.<sup><a href="#note43">43</a></sup>
	</p>
</blockquote>
<p>
	Is Australia comparable to America? I have my doubts. The population is much smaller and more homogeneous, and the number of guns already in circulation is orders of magnitude smaller, and the &#8220;gun culture&#8221; there is nothing like it is in America.
</p>
<p>
	Another common element found among mass murderers is large capacity magazines, most notably at Fort Hood, Texas, on the Virginia Tech campus, and in Tucson at the Gabrielle Giffords shooting where the killer used a 33-round magazine. The prohibition of high-volume ammo magazines seems like a rational response based on the fact that a number of mass murders were ended by bystanders and police when the killers stopped to reload.<sup><a href="#note44">44</a></sup> As criminologist James Allen Fox noted, &#8220;limiting the size of ammunition clips would at least force a gunman to pause to reload or switch weapons.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note45">45</a></sup> The proposed legislation on the table, introduced by Representative Carolyn McCarthy (whose husband was killed in the 1993 Long Island Railroad shooting), is called <em>The High Capacity Ammunition Feeding Device Act</em>, and it would prohibit magazines that hold more than 10 bullets (the maximum now is 100).<sup><a href="#note46">46</a></sup> That seems reasonable to me, and hunters who claim otherwise can give their game a more sporting chance of escape&#8212; if you can&#8217;t nail them in 10 rounds they deserve to live.
</p>
<div style="float: right; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px; width: 235px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Sandy-Hook-Effect/Sandy-Hook-Effect-figures-1-5-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Sandy-Hook-Effect-figures-1-5-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Sandy-Hook-Effect/fig2-3-4.png" width="225" height="507" alt="Figure 2, 3, and 4" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 2</strong>: Homicide rates per 100,000 people per annum in five Western European regions, 1300&#8211;2000.<sup><a href="#note51">51</a></sup></p>
<p class="caption" style="margin-top: 8px;"><strong>Figure 3</strong>: Homicide rates per 100,000 people per annum in Nonstate societies v. Western Europe, 1300&#8211;2000.<sup><a href="#note52">52</a></sup></p>
<p class="caption" style="margin-top: 8px;"><strong>Figure 4</strong>: <strong>Homicide rates per 100,000 per year in the United States</strong>. Note the dramatic decline in homicides during the assault weapons ban starting in 1994, but also note the leveling off of homicides in the last half of the 10-year ban and the dramatic drop after the ban was lifted.<sup><a href="#note53">53</a></sup></p>
</div>
<h5>
	Whose Rights?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	As a lifelong libertarian I have opposed gun control measures, primarily based on the larger principle of increasing individual freedom and decreasing government intervention. Plus, I&#8217;ve been a gun owner most of my life. I was raised with guns&#8212;my step-father was a hunter and we shot dove, duck and quail with 20-gauge and 12-gauge shotguns that we owned and kept in the house. Growing up I had a BB gun, then a pellet gun, than a 20-gauge shotgun, then a 12-gauge shotgun (the lower number is the higher caliber gun). We had black lab hunting dogs and we went hunting half a dozen times a year and ate everything we shot, which was especially enjoyable given my dad&#8217;s culinary skills with wild game. As an adult, for a quarter century I owned a Ruger .357 Magnum pistol with hollow-tip bullets designed to rip to shreds a human body intruding into my home with intent to harm my family. After I started having marital problems I took it out of the house and eventually got rid of it, having studied the psychology of human violence and knowing the statistic cited above about a gun being 22 times more likely to be used on yourself or a family member than a home invader. I own no guns now, but I am not opposed in the least to those who believe having a gun in the home is the best way to protect themselves and their family.
</p>
<p>
	Even though it is not clear that the two suggested laws banning assault rifles and large capacity magazines over 10 bullets would have a significant effect on mass murders, there could be a net gain, and it seems to me to be no great threat to liberty if we lump them with the already-existing bans on private citizens owning and operating bazookas, tanks, drone aircraft, fighter jets, and nuclear weapons. Bans on semi-automatic assault rifles and high-volume ammo clips will not stop <em>Sandy Hook Events</em>, but there is some evidence that they could curtail the level of carnage, and that strikes me as a rational response that even freedom-loving libertarians can live with. Recall the words of the Aurora, Colorado shooting victim Jessica Ghawi, who was almost gunned down in a shopping mall in Toronto in another mass murder the month before, after which she reflected on her blog: &#8220;I was shown how fragile life was on Saturday. I saw the terror on bystanders&#8217; faces. I saw the victims of a senseless crime. I saw lives change. I was reminded that we don&#8217;t know when or where our time on Earth will end. When or where we will breathe our last breath.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note47">47</a></sup>
</p>
<h5>
	The Real Decline of Violence<br />
</h5>
<p>
	All of the above is prelude, a rational response to irrational acts. The real decline of violence has wholly different causes that have led homicide rates to plummet from almost 1000 per 100,000 people per year in nonstate societies, to around 100 per 100,000 people per annum in Western societies from the beginnings of civilization all the way up to the Middle Ages, to about 10 per 100,000 each year by the time of the Enlightenment, to less than 1 per 100,000 today in Europe and 5 per 100,000 in America. The evidence for this decline and the factors that caused it are well summarized in Steven Pinker&#8217;s 800-page <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143122010/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0143122010&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined</em></a>.<sup><a href="#note48">48</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	To give just a snapshot of the evidence to support this counterintuitive thesis, using old court and county records in England&#8212;to cite just one study summarized by Pinker&#8212;criminologists calculate that rates have &#8220;plummeted by a factor of ten, fifty, and in some cases a hundred&#8212;for example, from 110 homicides per 100,000 people per year in 14th-century Oxford to less than 1 homicide per 100,000 in mid-20th-century London.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note49">49</a></sup> Similar patterns have been documented in Italy, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Scandinavia, and by the same order of magnitude: from about 100 per 100,000 to less than 1 between the 14th century and the 21st century, as seen in Figures 2 and 3.<sup><a href="#note50">50</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	Pertinent to current events, Figure 4 shows homicide rates per 100,000 per year from 1950 to 2010 in the United States. Gun control advocates will note the dramatic decline in homicides during the assault weapons ban starting in 1994, but pro-gun advocates can point to the leveling off of homicides in the last half of the 10-year ban and the dramatic drop after the ban was lifted. The conclusion from this data confirms the NRC&#8217;s conclusion noted above that the ban had little to no effect either way on homicides.
</p>
<p>
	As for wars, prehistoric peoples were far more murderous than states in percentages of the population killed in combat, as Pinker told me: &#8220;On average, nonstate societies kill around 15 percent of their people in wars, whereas today&#8217;s states kill a few hundredths of a percent.&#8221; Pinker calculates that even in the murderous 20th century, about 40 million people died in war out of the approximately six billion people who lived, or 0.7%. Even if we include war-related deaths of citizens from disease, famines and genocides, that brings the death toll up to 180 million deaths, or about 3%.<sup><a href="#note54">54</a></sup> Figure 5 presents aggregated data compiled by Pinker from multiple sources for the percentage of deaths in warfare for prehistoric peoples v. modern hunter-gatherers v. modern hunter-horticulturalists and other tribal groups v. modern states. The difference is striking.<sup><a href="#note55">55</a></sup>
</p>
<div style="float: right; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px; width: 235px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Sandy-Hook-Effect/Sandy-Hook-Effect-figures-1-5-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Sandy-Hook-Effect-figures-1-5-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Sandy-Hook-Effect/fig5.png" width="225" height="445" alt="Figure 5: Percentage of deaths in warfare for prehistoric peoples v. modern hunter-gatherers v. hunter-horticulturalists and other tribal groups v. modern states." /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 5</strong>: Percentage of deaths in warfare for prehistoric peoples v. modern hunter-gatherers v. hunter-horticulturalists and other tribal groups v. modern states.<sup><a href="#note55">55</a></sup></p>
</div>
<p>
	It would behoove us to consider the fact that this long-term precipitous fall in violence occurred even while the quantity and efficiency of deadly weapons evolved into the killing tools they are today.
</p>
<p>
	Why has violence declined? The English philosopher Thomas Hobbes famously argued in his 1651 book, <em>Leviathan</em>, that violence would be commonplace without a strong state to enforce the rule of law. As he conjectured, in one of the most famous passages in political philosophy:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>
		In such condition, there is no place for industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain: and consequently no culture of the earth; no navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by sea&#8230;no arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.<sup><a href="#note56">56</a></sup>
	</p>
</blockquote>
<p>
	Hobbes was only partially right in advocating top-down state controls to keep the worse demons of our nature in check. Trade and commerce was also a major factor, given the moral and practical benefits of trading for what you need instead of killing to get it. I call this Bastiat&#8217;s Principle: <em>where goods do not cross frontiers, armies will, but where goods do cross frontiers, armies will not</em>. I call it a principle instead of a law because there are exceptions both historically and today. Trade does not prevent war and interstate violence, but it attenuates its likelihood.<sup><a href="#note57">57</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	There are many other important sources that contributed to the decline of violence, such as classical liberalism, book publishing, knowledge diffusion, and education, all of which led to the Age of Reason and the Enlightenment, the rise of science and technology, and the Industrial Revolution, but arguably more important than these and as important as the Leviathan state and gentle commerce was a cause identified by a man Pinker calls &#8220;the most important thinker you have never heard of&#8221;&#8212;Norbert Elias&#8212;whose book <em>The Civilizing Process</em> documents its title thesis over the course of many centuries, as Pinker explains:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>
		Beginning in the 11th or 12th and maturing in the 17th and 18th [centuries], Europeans increasingly inhibited their impulses, anticipated the long-term consequences of their actions, and took other people&#8217;s thoughts and feelings into consideration. A culture of honor&#8212;the readiness to take revenge&#8212; gave way to a culture of dignity&#8212;the readiness to control one&#8217;s emotions. These ideals originated in explicit instructions that cultural arbiters gave to aristocrats and noblemen, allowing them to differentiate themselves from the villains and boors. But they were then absorbed into the socialization of younger and younger children until they became second nature.<sup><a href="#note58">58</a></sup>
	</p>
</blockquote>
<p>
	That second nature is expressed in the unreported &#8220;10,000 acts of kindness,&#8221; as Stephen Jay Gould memorably styled the ratio of the number of benevolent interactions among people to every hostile act. We have a dark side, it&#8217;s true, but we have a second nature as well that is the glue that binds us all in, as Abraham Lincoln so eloquently expressed it, &#8220;every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land&#8221; through &#8220;the mystic chords of memory&#8221; that he envisioned would be touched again by these better angels of our nature.
</p>
<p>
	Poetic prose aside, if we really want to reduce violence, social science research shows that what we should be focusing our attention and resources on maintaining and improving in Western societies and establishing in developing countries:
</p>
<ul>
<li>
		The rule of law and property rights.
	</li>
<li>
		Economic stability through a secure and trustworthy banking and monetary system.
	</li>
<li>
		A reliable infrastructure and the freedom to move about the country.
	</li>
<li>
		Freedom of speech, the press, and association.
	</li>
<li>
		Mass education.
	</li>
<li>
		Protection of civil liberties.
	</li>
<li>
		A robust military for protection of our liberties from attacks by other states.
	</li>
<li>
		A potent police for protection from attacks by other people within the state.
	</li>
<li>
		A viable legislative system for establishing fair and just laws.
	</li>
<li>
		An effective judicial system for the equitable enforcement of those fair and just laws.<sup><a href="#note59">59</a></sup>
	</li>
</ul>
<p>
	The effects of these factors over the centuries go mostly unnoticed by our minds, geared as they are to perceiving <em>Sandy Hook Events</em>, but science shows that these are the most reliable means of bending the arc of the moral universe toward truth, justice, freedom and peace. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" />
</p>
<div id="endMatter">
<h5>
		References<br />
	</h5>
<ol>
<li id="note01">
		Barron, James. December 15, 2012. &#8220;Children Were All Shot Multiple Times with a Semiautomatic, Officials say.&#8221; <em>New York Times</em>. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
	</li>
<li id="note02">
		Flegenheimer, Matt and Ravi Somaiya. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.nytimes%20.com/2012/12/16/nyregion/friendsof-gunmans-mother-his-first-victim-recall-her-as-generous.html">A Mother, a Gun Enthusiast and the First Victim</a>.&#8221; <em>New York Times</em>, December 15.
	</li>
<li id="note03">
		Sanchez, Raf. December 17, 2012. &#8220;Connecticut School Shooting: Six-Year Old Stayed Alive by Playing Dead.&#8221; <em>The Daily Telegraph</em>. Retrieved December 18, 2012.
	</li>
<li id="note04">
		<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/thinktanked/wp/2012/12/19/after-sandy-hook-what-can-be-done-to-curb-gun-violence-in-america/">http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/thinktanked/wp/2012/12/19/after-sandy-hook-what-can-be-done-to-curb-gun-violence-in-america/</a>
	</li>
<li id="note05">
		Lichtblau, Eric and Rich, Motoko. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/nra-calls-for-armed-guards-at-schools.html">N.R.A. Envisions &#8216;a Good Guy With a Gun&#8217; in Every School</a>.&#8221; <em>New York Times</em>, December 21.
	</li>
<li id="note06">
		Obama, Barack. Office of the Press Secretary. 2012. The White House. &#8220;<a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/12/16/remarks-president-sandy-hook-interfaith-prayer-vigil">Remarks by the President at Sandy Hook Inter faith Prayer Vigil</a>.&#8221; December 16.
	</li>
<li id="note07">
		Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2008. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/081297381X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=081297381X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable</em></a>. New York: Penguin.
	</li>
<li id="note08">
		Associated Press. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/world/asia/man-stabs-22-children-in-china.html">Man Stabs 22 Children in China</a>.&#8221; December 15.
	</li>
<li id="note09">
		<a href="http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2012/october/annual-crime-in-the-u.s.-report-released/">http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2012/october/annual-crime-in-the-u.s.-report-released/</a>
	</li>
<li id="note10">
		<a href="http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/serial-murder/">http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/serial-murder/</a>
	</li>
<li id="note11">
		Fox, James Alan. December 18, 2012. &#8220;<a href="https://chronicle.com/blogs/conversation/2012/12/18/top-10-myths-about-mass-shootings/">Top Ten Myths About Mass Shootings</a>.&#8221; <em>The Chronicle of Higher Education</em>.
	</li>
<li id="note12">
		Kellermann, Arthur L., 1998. &#8220;Injuries and Deaths Due to Firearms in the Home.&#8221; <em>Journal of Trauma</em> 45:2: 263&#8211;67
	</li>
<li id="note13">
		<a href="http://www.bradycampaign.org/?q=programs/legal-action-project/brady-reports">http://www.bradycampaign.org/?q=programs/legal-action-project/brady-reports</a>
	</li>
<li id="note14">
		Ibid.
	</li>
<li id="note15">
		Ibid.
	</li>
<li id="note16">
		<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/opinion/what-drives-suicidal-mass-killers.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/opinion/what-drives-suicidal-mass-killers.html</a>
	</li>
<li id="note17">
		Personal interview, July 23, 2012. See also: Dutton, Kevin. 2012. <em>The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success</em>. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. See also: Hare, Robert. 1999. <em>Without Conscience: The Disturbing World of the Psychopaths Among Us</em>. Guilford Press. Baron-Cohen, Simon. 2011. <em>The Science of Evil: On Empathy and the Origins of Cruelty</em>. New York: Basic Books.
	</li>
<li id="note18">
		<a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/anders_behring_breivik/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/anders_behring_breivik/index.html</a>
	</li>
<li id="note19">
		Phillips, Jack. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinese-man-who-stabbed-23-kids-affected-by-doomsday-rumors-325941.html">Chinese Man Who Stabbed 23 Kids &#8216;Affected&#8217; by Doomsday Rumors</a>.&#8221; <em>The Epoch Times</em>, December 26.
	</li>
<li id="note20">
		&#8220;<a href="http://video.pbs.org/video/2320006234/">After Newtown</a>.&#8221; <em>Frontline</em>. PBS.
	</li>
<li id="note21">
		Ibid.
	</li>
<li id="note22">
		Dutton, op cit., p. 61.
	</li>
<li id="note23">
		Lewis, Ricki. 2013. &#8220;Comparing Adam Lanza&#8217;s DNA to Forensic DNA Databases: A Modest Proposal.&#8221; <em>PLOS</em>, January 4.
	</li>
<li id="note24">
		&#8220;<a href="http://video.pbs.org/video/2320006234/">After Newtown</a>.&#8221; <em>Frontline</em>. PBS.
	</li>
<li id="note25">
		Ibid.
	</li>
<li id="note26">
		Shermer, Michael. 2008. &#8220;Five Ways Brain Scans Mislead Us.&#8221; <em>Scientific American Mind</em>, October.
	</li>
<li id="note27">
		Fox, James Alan. December 18, 2012. &#8220;<a href="https://chronicle.com/blogs/conversation/2012/12/18/top-10-myths-about-mass-shootings/">Top Ten Myths About Mass Shootings</a>.&#8221; <em>The Chronicle of Higher Education</em>.
	</li>
<li id="note28">
		<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VcSwejU2D0&amp;feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VcSwejU2D0&#38;feature=youtu.be</a>
	</li>
<li id="note29">
		Follman, Mark, Gavin Aronsen, and Deanna Pan. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/mass-shootings-map">A Guide to Mass Shootings in America</a>.&#8221; <em>Mother Jones</em>, December 15.
	</li>
<li id="note30">
		Follman, Mark. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/jared-loughner-mass-shootings-mental-illness">Mass Shootings: Maybe What We Need is a Better Mental-Health Policy</a>.&#8221; <em>Mother Jones</em>. November 9.
	</li>
<li id="note31">
		CBS/AP. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57478749/james-holmes-built-up-aurora-arsenal-of-bullets-ballistic-gear-through-unregulated-online-market/">James Holmes Built Up Aurora Arsenal of Bullets, Ballistic Gear Through Unregulated Online Market</a>.&#8221; July 24.
	</li>
<li id="note32">
		<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/teensplanned-bomb-plot-school-hate-crime/story?id=18147782#.UOuAw0pYX8I">http://abcnews.go.com/US/teensplanned-bomb-plot-school-hate-crime/story?id=18147782#.UOuAw0pYX8I</a> See also: <a href="http://news.msn.com/us/ala-teen-accused-of-plotting-to-bomb-classmates">http://news.msn.com/us/ala-teen-accused-of-plotting-to-bomb-classmates</a>
	</li>
<li id="note33">
		Barnes, Robert. 2008. &#8220;<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062600615.html">Justices Reject D.C. Ban on Handgun Ownership</a>.&#8221; <em>Washington Post</em>, June 27.
	</li>
<li id="note34">
		Mears, Bill. 2010. &#8220;<a href="http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/28/court-rules-for-gun-rights-strikes-down-chicago-handgun-ban/">Court Rules for Gun Rights, Strikes Down Chicago Handgun Ban</a>.&#8221; <em>CNN</em>, June 28.
	</li>
<li id="note35">
		Mather, Kate. 2013. &#8220;Out in Force.&#8221; <em>Los Angeles Times</em>, January 7, A1.
	</li>
<li id="note36">
		&#8220;<a href="http://video.pbs.org/video/2320006234/">After Newtown</a>.&#8221; <em>Frontline</em>. PBS.
	</li>
<li id="note37">
		Wellford, Charles F., John V. Pepper, and Carol V. Petrie (Eds.). 2005. <em>Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review</em>. National Research Council, National Academy of Science, NAP.
	</li>
<li id="note38">
		Lott, John. 2010. <em>More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws</em>, (3rd Ed.) University of Chicago Press.
	</li>
<li id="note39">
		Feldman, Josh. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.mediaite.com/tv/piers-morgan-and-alan-dershowitz-get-in-heated-argument-with-anti-gun-control-advocate/">Piers Morgan and Alan Dershowitz Get in Heated Argument with Anti-Gun Control Advocate</a>.&#8221; <em>MEDIAite</em>, July 23.
	</li>
<li id="note40">
		Duncan, Otis Dudley. 2000. &#8220;<a href="http://www.asc41.com/Criminologist/2000/January-February%202000.htm">Gun Use Surveys: In Numbers We Trust?</a>&#8221; <em>The Criminologist</em>. January/February.
	</li>
<li id="note41">
		Levitt, Steven and Stephen Dubner. 2005. <em>Freakonomics</em>. New York: William Morrow.
	</li>
<li id="note42">
		Pinker, Steven. 2011. <em>The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined</em>. New York: Viking.
	</li>
<li id="note43">
		Chapman, S., P. Alpers, K. Agho, M. Jones. 2006. &#8220;<a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/12/6/365.full">Australia&#8217;s 1996 Gun Law Reforms: Faster Falls in Firearm Deaths, Firearm Suicides, and a Decade without Mass Shootings</a>.&#8221; <em>Injury Prevention</em>. 12: 365&#8211;372.
	</li>
<li id="note44">
		Lott, John, and William Landes. 1999. &#8220;Multiple Victim Public Shootings, Bombings, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handgun Laws: Contrasting Private and Public Law Enforcement.&#8221; <em>University of Chicago Law School, John M. Olin Law &#38; Economics Working Paper</em> No. 73.
	</li>
<li id="note45">
		Fox, op cit.
	</li>
<li id="note46">
		Cassese, Sid and Tom Brune. 2013. &#8220;<a href="http://www.newsday.com/elections/rep-carolynmccarthy-bill-would-ban-high-capacity-ammunition-clips-1.4403979">Rep. Carolyn McCarthy Bill Would Ban High-Capacity Ammunition Clips</a>.&#8221; <em>Newsday</em>, January 3.
	</li>
<li id="note47">
		Peralta, Eyder. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/07/20/157128444/the-tragedy-of-jessica-ghawi-spared-in-toronto-she-died-in-colorado-shooting">The Tragedy of Jessica Ghawi: Spared in Toronto, She Died in Colorado Shooting</a>.&#8221; NPR <em>The Two-Way</em>. July 20.
	</li>
<li id="note48">
		Pinker, Steven. 2011. <em>The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined</em>. New York: Viking.
	</li>
<li id="note49">
		Ibid., 60.
	</li>
<li id="note50">
		Ibid., 61&#8211;63.
	</li>
<li id="note51">
		From Pinker, 2011, 63, graphed from data from: Eisner, M. 2003. &#8220;Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime.&#8221; <em>Crime &#38; Justice</em>, 30, 83&#8211;142, Table 1.
	</li>
<li id="note52">
		Ibid. Pinker and Eisner. Nonstate average is a geometric mean of 26 societies not including Semai, Inuit, and !Kung.
	</li>
<li id="note53">
		Pinker, 2011, 117, rendered from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports 1950&#8211;2010: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2009. See also: Fox, J. A. and M. W. Zawitz, 2007. &#8220;<a href="http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/homicide/homtrnd.cfm">Homicide Trends in the United States</a>.&#8221;
	</li>
<li id="note54">
		E-mail correspondence July 28, 2011.
	</li>
<li id="note55">
		Pinker, 2011, 49, rendered from data published in: Bowles, S. 2009. &#8220;Did War fare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors?&#8221; <em>Science</em>, 324, 1293&#8211;98; Keeley, L. H. 1996. <em>War Before Civilization: The Myth of the Peaceful Savage</em>. New York: Oxford University Press; Gat, A. 2006. <em>War in Human Civilization</em>. New York: Oxford University Press; White, M. 2011. <em>The Great Big Book of Horrible Things: The Definitive Chronicle of History&#8217;s 100 Worst Atrocities</em>. New York: Norton; Harris, M. 1975. <em>Culture, People, Nature</em>. 2nd ed. New York: Crowell; Lacina, B. and N. P. Gleditsch. 2005. &#8220;Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset in Battle Deaths.&#8221; <em>European Journal of Population</em>, 21, 145&#8211;66;Sarkees, M. R. 2000. &#8220;The Correlates of War Data on War.&#8221; <em>Conflict Management and Peace Science</em>, 18, 123&#8211;44.
	</li>
<li id="note56">
		Hobbes, Thomas. 1651 (1968). <em>Leviathan, or The Matter, Forme and Power of a Common Wealth Ecclesiasticall and Civil</em>. (C. B. Macpherson, ed.). New York: Penguin, 76.
	</li>
<li id="note57">
		Shermer, Michael. 2007. <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b126PB"><em>The Mind of the Market: How Biology and Psychology Shape Our Economic Lives</em></a>. New York: Times Books
	</li>
<li id="note58">
		Pinker, 2011, 72.
	</li>
<li id="note59">
		I present the evidence for this list in two of my books: Shermer, Michael. 2007. <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b126PB"><em>The Mind of the Market: How Biology and Psychology Shape Our Economic Lives</em></a>. New York: Times Books; Shermer, Michael. 2011. <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b144PB"><em>The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies</em></a>. New York: Times Books.
	</li>
</ol>
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		<title>The Mass Murder Problem</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Skepticcom/~3/kJfbs1qNlhk/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/the-mass-murder-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2013 00:38:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[reading room]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Columbine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gun control]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mass murder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Hook]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25150</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oklahoma City, Columbine, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook. The list of mass murders in America grows and grows. Why? And what can we do about it? In this article,  David Hillshafer has aggregated large amounts of data from reputable sources with an aim toward providing evidence-based suggestions for possible solutions.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="float: right; width: 255px; margin: 0 0 10px 20px;">
	<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol18n01.html"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/images/magv18n01_cover.jpg" width="245" height="323" alt="Skeptic magazine, vol 18, no 1 (cover)" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption">This article appeared in <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol18n01.html">Skeptic magazine 18.1</a> (2013). </p>
</div>
<p>
	OKLAHOMA CITY, COLUMBINE, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook. The list of mass murders in America grows and grows. Why? And what can we do about it? I have a personal interest in the problem of violence and mass murder. I was in Oklahoma City at the time of Timothy McVeigh&#8217;s bombing of the Federal building. I joined the Air Force on September 11, 2001. I served a tour of duty in Kabul, Afghanistan, where periodic terrorist attacks and occasional mass murders were a fact of life. I would like to bring to bear on this problem both my personal experiences with human violence and my scientific training as an aerospace engineer and data analyst.
</p>
<p>
	In this article I have aggregated large amounts of data from reputable sources with an aim toward providing evidence-based suggestions for possible solutions. First, I sampled data in the public domain from Wikipedia, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Federal Bureau of Investigation&#8217;s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), published research papers, reputable news media outlets, and firsthand accounts. I also interviewed police officers, doctors, and social workers.
</p>
<p>
	We begin with the definition of mass murder as four or more murders at a single location (a school, workplace, home, or public place) during the same incident without any pause in between.<sup><a href="#note01">1</a></sup> We can then consider how mass murderers select their targets. Using aggregated data from Wikipedia<sup><a href="#note02">2</a></sup> for the U.S. from the 1800s to the present, schools were selected primarily by teenagers (peaking at 17), other people&#8217;s homes (&#8220;Home Intruder&#8221;) were selected primarily by people in their 20s (peaking at 25), public places were selected by people in their 30s (peaking at 35), and workplaces and one&#8217;s own home (&#8220;Familicides&#8221;) were selected by middle-aged people (peaking at 40). Notable Incidents (like the Oklahoma City Bombing) and Soldier Fratricides were included later in the mass murder dataset, but were too few to be statistically significant on their own (Figures 1 and 2).
</p>
<p class="Attention">
	Click any graph in this article to download larger versions in PDF. <br /> A single PDF (378 kb) contains all graphs.
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig1and2.png" width="505" height="177" alt="Figure 1 and 2: Location of mass murder and age of perpetrator" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 1 and 2</strong>: Location of mass murder and age of perpetrator</p>
</div>
<p>
	In other words, people still in school tend to select a school, people with a family at home tend to select their home, people with a job tend to select their workplace, people who are out of school but don&#8217;t have a job or family tend to select other people&#8217;s homes and public places. This probably means that a person who commits mass murder selects their location based on targets of opportunity.
</p>
<p>
	Even though most people who commit mass murder were never in the military, such target selection is military, gang, or terrorist (as opposed to civilian) in nature. In civilian life, one person might attack another person to remove an obstacle to a desired outcome (such as killing someone during a robbery) or to retaliate (such as killing a person after being attacked). In the military, gangs, and terrorist organizations, people attack other people based on their association with a leader or organization (such as attacking an outpost because it is controlled by an opposing military and not because of anything the individuals being attacked did or will do). This is a legal distinction that might not exist in the mind of a person who commits mass murder (or warring gangs or terrorist organizations), but it is important to note that people who commit mass murder appear to be operating as if under military rules of engagement.
</p>
<h5>
	Common Elements of Mass Murders and Murderers<br />
</h5>
<p>
	Mass murders were committed primarily by a single attacker (98.6%), whose average age was 34.4 and when a second attacker was present, both were typically young men (average age of 19.4). Attacks killed 9.0 people and injured 9.6 people on average, excluding the attacker. Many of the attackers were related to at least one victim (38%), and a few also killed animals (3.1%). Wikipedia data does not indicate the sex of the attackers, but judging based on first names and additional Google searches (where available), 90% were men, 6% were women, and 3% were unsolved. Of the attacks conducted by women, one was workplace (post office) and the rest (94%) were familicides. Also, most of the women were in their 40s, which is consistent with the ages of attackers at home or work. The attackers typically used a gun (73%), but sometimes the instrument was a melee weapon (such as an axe, club, or bare hands, 30%), or arson (12%). (The total adds to more than 100% because often more than one weapon was used. Figure 3.)
</p>
<p>
	The attack often ended when the police confronted the killer and then the killer committed suicide (39%, including people who died from their own fire, explosion, etc.) or was shot dead by the police (11%). While the killer occasionally died at the hands of an angry mob (1%), rarely did an armed civilian kill an attacker (0% in the U.S., 1 recorded incident in Israel where an armed student killed an attacker), and unarmed heroic civilians who charge the attacker frequently got killed. Of the killers who were taken alive, many were executed by the state (10% of captured, 5% of total) or spent the rest of their life in prison (34% of captured, 19% of total). Several were sentenced to less than life in prison (2.8%) for an average of 29 years. A few were found not guilty by reason of insanity or found mentally unfit for trial (3%).
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig3.png" width="505" height="258" alt="Figure 3: U.S. mass murder weapons" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 3</strong>: U.S. mass murder weapons</p>
</div>
<p>
	Regardless of sentencing, authorities typically discover the attacker&#8217;s mental instability and extreme beliefs. Byran Uyesugi, a schizophrenic Hawaiian working at Xerox, believed he was being racially discriminated against, precipitating his 1999 attack, even though no one else perceived the discrimination.<sup><a href="#note03">3</a></sup> Maj. Nidal Hassan, a Palestinian-American, believed he was being discriminated against by his fellow army officers for being Muslim (rather than his documented poor job performance), and he believed that Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan should rise up and throw the U.S. out of the Middle East and he would help that process at home, leading to his rampage at Fort Hood in 2009.<sup><a href="#note04">4</a></sup> Timothy McVeigh believed he was at war with the U.S. Federal Government and he was going to lead a revolution by blowing up the Federal building in Oklahoma City in 1994.<sup><a href="#note05">5</a></sup> Jared Loughner, a schizophrenic, believed in government conspiracy theories and was angered by Congresswoman Gabriel Giffords because he believed women should not hold positions of power, which he aimed to end with his 2011 shooting spree.<sup><a href="#note06">6</a></sup> Eric Harris wanted to be infamous for killing a lot of people and he enlisted Dylan Klebold to help him slaughter their fellow students at Columbine High in 1999.<sup><a href="#note07">7</a></sup> And the University of Texas Tower Sniper Charles Whitman had a brain tumor on his hypothalamus pressing against his amygdala when he wrote, &#8220;lately (I cannot recall when it started) I have been a victim of many unusual and irrational thoughts,&#8221; which he acted out with a rifle in 1966.<sup><a href="#note08">8</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	Whitman is a rare example because his tumor can be used to explain which part of the brain was responsible for mass murder. While it&#8217;s possible other people who committed mass murder also had a brain tumor, it&#8217;s likely that the tumor changed Whitman&#8217;s hypothalamus and amygdala to match the circuitry or hormones of other people who committed mass murder, like installing malicious software on a computer. As the tumor physically changed his brain, Whitman realized something was wrong and tried to get help. When help failed, he executed the task the tumor had reprogrammed his brain to perform&#8212;mass murder.
</p>
<h5>
	Warning Signs<br />
</h5>
<p>
	A common misconception is that all people who commit mass murder have a psychotic break with reality and attack without warning. In fact, each person who committed mass murder typically experienced a period of mental decline over a year or more. For example, battle-induced stress from the First Gulf War in 1991 was clearly a major factor in Timothy McVeigh&#8217;s life path, as he frequently made references to war and combat until he died. After leaving the Army, McVeigh got a job as a security guard, which he left to drive around the country and visit old military friends. After being rejected romantically, he began gambling and lived with his family for a while. He routinely espoused anti-government rhetoric and eventually quit the National Rifle Association (NRA) because he felt their stance on pro-gun laws was too weak. When he saw the federal siege at Waco in 1993, he traveled there to pass out pro-gun literature. In Waco, McVeigh met Terry Nichols, who taught McVeigh how to make improvised explosive devices.
</p>
<p>
	So instead of a sudden &#8220;snap,&#8221; McVeigh transformed over several years into the man who on April 19, 1995, detonated a truck filled with explosives next to the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people including 19 children in the daycare and injuring 680. Afterward, McVeigh did not appear to feel any remorse for his victims, and instead coldly opined that they were collateral damage in his war with the U.S. government.<sup><a href="#note09">9</a></sup> If we accept McVeigh&#8217;s premise, then we might agree that the bombing was a normal act of war. However, reasonable people don&#8217;t accept that McVeigh was at war with the U.S. government, and instead see his action as a criminal act. McVeigh demonstrates how specific, violent delusions are the defining feature of people who commit mass murder.
</p>
<p>
	Similarly, starting at least a year before their big attack at Columbine, Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold committed smaller crimes, outlined plans for their attack, illegally acquired guns, and practiced making and detonating pipe bombs before killing 15 people and injuring 21 at their high school.<sup><a href="#note10">10</a></sup> That same year Sung Hui Cho saw the media reports of the Columbine attacks on the news and wrote in an 8th grade school assignment that he wanted to &#8220;repeat Columbine.&#8221; Years later, his college classmates joked that Cho was, &#8220;the kind of guy who might go on a rampage killing,&#8221; primarily because of his violent writing in school assignments and awkward social behavior. All along, Cho&#8217;s mother knew that something was wrong with her child, but when he turned 18 he was an adult and she couldn&#8217;t legally intervene as his parent. A judge even ruled that Cho should be treated as an outpatient (instead of forced hospitalization) for mental disorders. This was a year and a half before Cho killed 32 and injured 17 at Virginia Tech in 2007.<sup><a href="#note11">11</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	Jared Loughner&#8217;s personality changed five years before he attacked Congresswoman Gabby Giffords and five others, including U.S. District Court Judge John Roll. After the attack, he was diagnosed with schizophrenia and forced to take antipsychotic medications.<sup><a href="#note12">12</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	Many more examples may be found on the Wikipedia pages listing rampage attacks&#8212;click on each link and read the biographies of a wide variety of attackers. Sometimes the motivations are criminal, drug-related, political, or unknown, but those are the exceptions. Most people who commit mass murder have at least one major mental disorder,<sup><a href="#note13">13</a></sup> specifically some form of delusion,<sup><a href="#note14">14</a></sup> and the symptoms get worse over time. This mental decline has noticeable effects on the person&#8217;s life, and peers and others who interact with that person know something isn&#8217;t right.
</p>
<p>
	The inspiration for these mass murderers appears to feed on itself. Timothy McVeigh, for example, was inspired by his battlefield experience in the First Gulf War and the siege at Waco. Eric Harris was inspired by the Oklahoma City Bombing. Sung Hui Cho was inspired by Columbine. Major Nidal Hassan was inspired by the Little Rock Recruiting Station attack. Each of these people talked or wrote about prior attacks and specifically mentioned that they wanted to either emulate them or avenge them. In the same way the continuous sensational news coverage traumatizes average citizens, it energizes some people to commit mass murder.
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig4.png" width="505" height="390" alt="Figure 4: U.S. murder victims from guns, 2010" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 4</strong>: U.S. murder victims from guns, 2010</p>
</div>
<h5>
	Will Banning Assault Weapons Solve the Problem?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	At the time of this writing, gun control proponents are introducing legislation to reinstate the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban. What effect will this have? In 2003, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reviewed studies of Gun Control legislation,<sup><a href="#note15">15</a></sup> including the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban (which expired in 2004), and they concluded that the available studies were inconclusive, had methodological errors, or were inconsistent with other studies.
</p>
<p>
	One reason studies of assault weapons and other gun control methods showed little effect is likely because handguns are the weapon of choice for homicide (68% of gun-related homicide, 46% of all homicide).<sup><a href="#note16">16</a></sup> Unlike rifles, handguns are concealable and easy to carry and store. Also, based on personal anecdotal experience, the people I know who own an assault rifle also own handguns. That is, eliminating assault weapons has no significant effect on gun violence because assault weapons are relatively uncommon, infrequently used, and typically owned in conjunction with handguns (Figure 4).
</p>
<p>
	Did the Assault Weapons Ban have an effect on the <em>number</em> of mass murder incidents? No. During the Federal Assault Weapons Ban, 29 mass murder attacks occurred in the U.S., including the Oklahoma City Bombing and Columbine.<sup><a href="#note17">17</a></sup> The ban didn&#8217;t appear to have a significant impact on the number of mass murder incidents in that decade compared to other decades, and within the decade, there was no downward trend. This only shows that the availability of assault weapons doesn&#8217;t change the number of mass murder incidents, which means that killers just switched to different weapons, obtained illegal weapons, or made improvised weapons (Figure 5).
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig5and6.png" width="505" height="175" alt="Figure 5: Incidents; Figure 6: U.S. Mass Murder Victims" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 5</strong>: Incidents<br /><strong>Figure 6</strong>: U.S. Mass Murder Victims</p>
</div>
<p>
	Perhaps the Assault Weapons Ban had an effect on the number of mass murder <em>victims</em>. During the ban, large attacks like the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Park Bombing occurred, and the average number of people killed per incident increased from 9.4 pre-ban to 11.3 during the ban, then decreasing to 7.6 after the ban expired. The average number of people injured per incident increased from 8.0 to 35.0 during the ban and decreased to 5.6 after the ban. There may have been a downward trend during the ban, but the dataset is too small and too random to draw a strong conclusion (Figure 6).
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig7and8.png" width="505" height="175" alt="Figure 7: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims killed before, during, and after assault weapons ban; Figure 8: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims injured before, during, and after assault weapons ban" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 7</strong>: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims <strong>killed</strong> before, during, and after assault weapons&nbsp;ban<br /><strong>Figure 8</strong>: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims <strong>injured</strong> before, during, and after assault weapons ban</p>
</div>
<p>
	Examining the effects of the ban from a different perspective, these graphs ( Figures 7 and 8) show U.S. mass murder victims killed and injured before, during, and after the assault weapons ban. Approximately 15% more incidents resulted in 5 or fewer victims killed during the ban than before or after the ban. Conversely, approximately 25% more incidents had 12 or fewer victims before or after the ban than during the ban. That is, the data indicate that the Assault Weapons Ban may have moved victims from the killed to the injured columns per incident.
</p>
<p>
	Figures 9 and 10 examine the effects of all gun-related incidents by type of gun: semi-automatic guns (rifle or shotgun), long guns (manual rifle or shotgun), and handguns.<sup><a href="#note18">18</a></sup> Results indicate that the number killed per incident didn&#8217;t show any significant differences based on type of firearm. However, the number injured showed that semiautomatic weapons result in more injuries than handguns or long guns.
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig9and10.png" width="505" height="179" alt="Figure 9: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims killed by type of firearm; Figure 10: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims injured by type of firearm" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 9</strong>: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims <strong>killed</strong> by type of firearm<br /><strong>Figure 10</strong>: Cumulative U.S. mass murder victims <strong>injured</strong> by type of firearm</p>
</div>
<p>
	In real-world mass shootings, semi-automatic weapons were no more or less deadly than other guns, but they did result in more injuries. However, when semi-automatic weapons were banned, then the number of killed decreased and the number injured increased. Seemingly contradictory evidence, such as this, typically indicates a complicated set of interactions or an insufficient sample size (so the effects may be due to random chance alone). Based on this analysis, a similar ban on assault weapons won&#8217;t have a significant impact on general homicide rates and it won&#8217;t change the number of mass murder incidents, but it may reduce the morbidity and mortality of each mass murder incident.
</p>
<h5>
	What About Carrying Concealed Handguns?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	It is reasonable to assume that criminals will ignore legal restrictions on weapons. As such, concealed carry licenses are designed to give law abiding citizens the opportunity to defend themselves before the police arrive, which could be five minutes or more. Data above also clearly show that an active shooter<sup><a href="#note19">19</a></sup> attack can only reliably end when the attacker is physically disabled. That is, armed citizens need to be able to shoot and kill the attacker in a crowded area (not just shoot <em>at</em> the attacker) or physically restrain the attacker (not just <em>charge</em> at the attacker). They also need to be able to handle other people responding to the same situation.
</p>
<p>
	For example, Joe Zamudio<sup><a href="#note20">20</a></sup> was legally carrying a concealed handgun in Arizona one day when he heard gunshots. He ran toward the gunfire and saw a man with a handgun in a malfunction condition on top of another man, shouting, &#8220;I&#8217;ll kill you, you motherf****r. I&#8217;ll kill you.&#8221; Leaving his weapon in the holster Zamudio grabbed the man&#8217;s wrist and instructed him to put down the weapon, which he did. The man was Roger Sulzgeber, who in addition to retired Army Colonel Bill Badger and Patricia Maisch,<sup><a href="#note21">21</a>, </sup><sup><a href="#note22">22</a></sup> saved many lives by tackling Jared Loughner after Loughner&#8217;s weapon malfunctioned approximately one minute<sup><a href="#note20">20</a>, </sup><sup><a href="#note23">23</a></sup> after opening fire. Sulzgeber&#8217;s aggressive comments were an emotional response to witnessing Loughner shoot 20 people and nearly being shot himself. Once Sulzgeber put down the weapon, Zamudio helped Badger, Sulzgeber, and Maisch to restrain Loughner for about four minutes<sup><a href="#note20">20</a>, </sup><sup><a href="#note23">23</a></sup> until the police arrived. Contrary to press reports,<sup><a href="#note24">24</a></sup> Zamudio did not almost shoot the wrong person, as his weapon was never removed from his holster. If Zamudio had been an armed off-duty police officer, instead of an armed citizen, then he probably would have behaved similarly in the chaos of the situation. The real lesson is, if you have any doubt about taking a shot, then do whatever it takes to resolve your doubts before shooting or just get away and let the police handle the situation. Ultimately, if Loughner&#8217;s weapon hadn&#8217;t malfunctioned, then Zamudio would have likely been the first armed person on scene to engage Loughner for the next four minutes. As such, armed citizens with the proper training could stop up to 30 to 40 deaths by mass murder per year on average.
</p>
<p>
	In addition to concealed carry laws, states have recently enacted &#8220;Stand Your Ground&#8221; or &#8220;Castle&#8221; laws, first in Florida in 2005 and in 20 states since. In every state, everyone is allowed to use deadly force to protect themselves in their own home, provided the attacker isn&#8217;t retreating. But everyone was expected to retreat from a fight in a public place until these laws specifically allowed a person not to retreat (that is, &#8220;stand your ground&#8221;). A recent study by Cheng Cheng and Mark Hoekstra at Texas A&#38;M University indicates that an extra 600 homicides occur in the U.S. each year because of these laws.<sup><a href="#note25">25</a>, </sup><sup><a href="#note26">26</a></sup> Why might this be? Of the 13,756 homicides counted in the 2009 FBI<sup><a href="#note27">27</a></sup> Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) data, 3,368 (24.4%) were started because of &#8220;Other Arguments&#8221; (an argument not over money or property). This is more than <em>all</em> the 2,051 (14.9%) &#8220;Felony Homicides&#8221;<sup><a href="#note28">28</a></sup> and 1,495 (10.9%) &#8220;Non-Felony Homicides&#8221;<sup><a href="#note29">29</a></sup> (excluding &#8220;Other Arguments&#8221; listed above and the 1,996 or 14.5% of &#8220;Non-Felony Not Specified&#8221;). That means that alcohol, drugs, prostitution, and gangs combined killed fewer people than arguments did in the U.S. in 2009. The only category with more homicides is &#8220;Unknown,&#8221; which could mean unsolved, solved enough for the detectives to get an arrest and move on to the next case, or fully solved but poorly documented (Figures 11 and 12).
</p>
<p>
	Further, homicide rates in the U.S. in 2010 show that for every woman who committed homicide, 9.3 men committed homicide, and 3.8 homicides went unsolved. For both men and women, the peak age to both kill and be killed was 20 to 24 years old. That is, most homicides take the form of a young man killing another similarly aged man, probably as a result of an argument.
</p>
<p>
	The likely explanation that Concealed Carry plus Stand Your Ground laws result in 600 more deaths per year is that a young man with a concealed weapon in an argument is more likely to escalate the dispute and think he is standing his ground. As a result, arguments that would have ended in a fistfight are more likely to end in a gunfight.
</p>
<h5>
	Are There any Middle-of-the-Road Gun Control Recommendations?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	Given the realities of chaotic shooting environments, at the very least states that allow citizens to carry concealed weapons should also establish annual training requirements to include basic gun safety and how to deescalate arguments and other confrontations without resorting to violence. Otherwise, allowing untrained citizens to carry concealed weapons and engage in a fight as if they were a police officer clearly results in more homicide deaths than mass murder deaths per year. Also, public schools should consider teaching techniques to deescalate arguments (especially for young men) as part of the standard curriculum.
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig11and12.png" width="505" height="163" alt="Figure 11 and 12: U.S. Non-felony-related homicides, 2009" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 11 and 12</strong>: U.S. Non-felony-related homicides, 2009</p>
</div>
<p>
	Next, victims (or family members of victims) of gun crimes or negligent discharges aren&#8217;t currently compensated in the U.S. for emotional distress, injury, or death. To change this, legislation could require a gun owner to either pay for private liability insurance prior to purchasing or transferring ownership of a weapon (similar to mandatory auto insurance) or pay a federal tax for the government to compensate victims of gun violence directly. Like all insurance, this would allow citizens to engage in potentially risky behavior and put a price on the risk to be paid by the people creating the risk. Similar to auto insurance, a young man would pay significantly more in gun liability insurance than an older woman. Also, receiving yearly safety training and properly securing guns in the home would probably reduce gun insurance rates regardless of age or sex, and everyone who owns a gun should do this anyway. Insurance companies could also test clients for psychological risk factors, such as psychopathy or delusional thinking. As a result, people at a very high risk to commit gun violence would be unlikely to receive affordable liability insurance. Criminals and those who are irresponsible will likely have uninsured and untaxed firearms, and tax evasion is a crime. This would give law enforcement another method to throw criminals in jail for possessing guns illegally.
</p>
<p>
	When it comes to new legislation on gun ownership, we could look at gun laws like drinking laws. When it was discovered that lowering the drinking age to 18 increased the number of drunk drivers, many states increased the drinking age to 21, and later the federal government established a national mandate. While it&#8217;s still legal in many states for parents to give alcohol to their underage children, bars, restaurants, and stores can&#8217;t sell alcohol to anyone under 21.<sup><a href="#note30">30</a></sup> Further, if a minor commits a crime in general, then the parents may be liable in civil court to pay for the damages because parents are expected to control their children. With that in mind, mass murder with a gun is part of the larger problem of homicide with a gun and so homicide should be part of the consideration. Of all homicide offenders 60% were under 30 and 90% were under 50. Similarly, the 60% of all people who commit mass murder were under 35 and 93% were under 50, and they were mostly male. In other words, the risk of committing violence doesn&#8217;t decline until after 30 to 35 (Figure 13).
</p>
<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 515px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'ReadingRoom', 'FileDownloaded', 'Mass-Murder-Problem-figures-1-13-Skeptic-18-1.pdf']);" title="Click to download larger version of this graph in PDF format."><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/images/Mass-Murder-Problem/fig13.png" width="505" height="313" alt="Figure 13: All cumulative U.S. people who commit mass murders" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><strong>Figure 13</strong>: All cumulative U.S. people who commit mass murders</p>
</div>
<p>
	Based on this analysis, states could raise the legal age for men to purchase a firearm from 18 to 35 years old, and/or they could allow anyone under-legal-age who wants to use a gun to have a legal-age surrogate purchase the gun on their behalf. Should the underage person use the weapon to commit a crime, the perpetrator would still be responsible in criminal court. However, the surrogate would be civilly (i.e., monetarily) liable to any victims even if the gun was used without the surrogate&#8217;s knowledge or permission. Functionally, this means the surrogate must purchase liability insurance or pay the tax for the gun. In other words, states can shift civil responsibility for gun violence to older, more responsible family members and friends, and let them adjudicate their personal affairs, as was done with drinking laws.
</p>
<h5>
	What Can We Do to Prevent the Next Mass Murder?<br />
</h5>
<p>
	Most people are fixated on guns and gun laws, but what about prevention? These analyses show the primary risk factors for a person to commit mass murder are being a male under the age of 35 who suffers from violent delusions and whose condition is likely deteriorating over the course of one or more years. If we want to prevent mass murder, we must address mental health care for people with delusions and schizophrenia.
</p>
<p>
	Diagnosis is a good first step. The peak age for onset of schizophrenia in males is 22 (average 22.5), but males are first admitted for schizophrenia at the age of 28.2 on average (6 years after onset). Likewise, the age of peak onset in females is also 22 (average 25.5 due to higher probability of late onset, especially around menopause), and females are admitted at the age of 32.2 on average (7 years after onset). In both cases, admissions typically occur shortly after the individual experienced their first psychotic episode.<sup><a href="#note31">31</a></sup> By the time a person with schizophrenia has a psychotic episode, they are also likely to have experienced negative symptoms of schizophrenia for 4 to 6 years,<sup><a href="#note32">32</a></sup> and positive symptoms of schizophrenia for 2 years.<sup><a href="#note33">33</a></sup> Clearly, there is significant opportunity to intervene and treat people with schizophrenia long before they have a psychotic episode.
</p>
<p>
	Not all people who commit mass murder are schizophrenic. Many are just delusional. Considering that delusions are one of the symptoms of schizophrenia, it seems reasonable to assume that there would be more people with delusions only than with psychotic episodes, hallucinations, and delusions combined. Yet, schizophrenia is diagnosed in 0.8% of men and 0.4% of women,<sup><a href="#note34">34</a></sup> whereas Delusional Disorder is so rare I couldn&#8217;t find a reliable source. Either the mechanisms in the brain that cause delusions almost always cause psychotic episodes and hallucinations, or delusions are significantly underdiagnosed. The latter is more likely because the onset of symptoms of schizophrenia do not occur all at once, but steadily increase over 6 or 7 years, indicating separation of symptoms. Also, people with schizophrenia are typically only diagnosed after their first psychotic episode, but people with delusions don&#8217;t exhibit psychotic episodes that attract attention. Finally, we all know someone at work or school who has a lot of weird beliefs and they suffer because of it. Those people don&#8217;t choose to be that way; they likely have an undiagnosed and untreated mental disorder; however, if you ask them, they probably think everyone else is delusional. As such, the diagnosis rate of delusions is likely negligible.
</p>
<p>
	It is also important to note that delusions or schizophrenia don&#8217;t necessarily make someone dangerous because not all delusions are violent, and many other mental health problems do not result in any violence or crime at all. However, practically all mental health problems result in reduced productivity at home, school, and work (almost by definition). That is, mental health is more than just one type of disorder. In 2011, the CDC concluded: &#8220;In 2004, an estimated 25% of adults in the United States reported having a mental illness in the previous year. The economic cost of mental illness in the United States is substantial, approximately $300 billion in 2002.&#8221;<sup><a href="#note35">35</a></sup>
</p>
<p>
	The U.S. could prevent at least some of the mass murders and help up to 25% of adults at the same time by implementing yearly mental health checkups. One way to enforce this would be to enact a school and workplace mandate for students and workers, especially men under 50 who are the most at risk population to commit homicide, mass murder, and other irreversible acts of violence. Schools and workplaces already can turn people away for not receiving yearly vaccines as a public safety matter, which sets a legal precedent for physical health that could be extended into mental health. Of course, this would mean that employees and parents of students would need expanded insurance coverage for mental health, meaning employers must recognize that paying for family mental health insurance would improve site security and worker productivity.
</p>
<p>
	Unfortunately, checkups alone might not be enough because the type of individual who is at risk to commit mass murder is not likely to seek out professional help. Yet people have lived around others with mental disorders for millions of years and likely evolved circuits to recognize risk factors. As such, classmates, neighbors, parents, coworkers, friends, and others usually recognize that a problem exists long before something irreversible happens. The primary problem in modern society has been passing this recognition to someone who can do something. Then, how are authorities supposed to act without violating other people&#8217;s rights?
</p>
<p>
	The department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or a private aid agency could set up an intervention hotline where people who see someone with a mental health issue can call in and request an intervention. Then HHS could dispatch a social worker to interview and assess the individual. Based on that assessment, the social worker could either help that person find the appropriate health care provider if he or she is cooperative, or gather enough evidence to demonstrate to a judge that this person is a danger to himself, herself, or others, appoint a legal guardian to act on his or her behalf, and treat the unwilling person.
</p>
<p>
	Building the hotline will be a challenge. The goal is that when we think a person needs help or a person makes us feel concerned for our safety, we won&#8217;t hesitate to use the hotline. This means the operators will need to protect those who call and intervene discreetly and quickly. Simple procedures could also be put in place to prevent hotline abuse. For example, calls and other requests could be attributed to a phone or user, recorded, and stored for five years. Instead of responding to every request, HHS could wait for a second person to make a request as a form of independent verification. Social workers could also interview people who know the individual in question before approaching the individual. Also, prank callers to the hotline may think it&#8217;s funny until they spend a night undergoing a thorough psychological evaluation. On the other hand, maybe the caller reporting &#8220;government mind control&#8221; really is the person who needs help.
</p>
<p>
	Providing access to mental health care and a mechanism to discreetly initiate an intervention will not just potentially save the lives of mass murder victims, it will also help many other people with a disorder to get help.
</p>
<h5>
	Conclusion<br />
</h5>
<p>
	Mass murder is primarily a crime committed by men with violent delusions who respond by attacking targets of opportunity. At best, decreasing the availability of assault weapons or increasing the number of armed citizens has had limited success in the past and does not address the root cause. To solve the problem, we need to shift our focus from better response to better prevention. Specifically, routine mental health checkups and an intervention hotline operated by social workers would provide a clear, direct path to get people the help they need before they do something irreversible. Ultimately, everyone will be happier and more productive, and in the long run lives will be saved. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" />
</p>
<div id="endMatter">
<h5>
		References<br />
	</h5>
<ol>
<li id="note01">
			FBI. 2005. <a href="http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/serial-murder/serial-murder-1">Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives for Investigators</a>. FBI.gov. September 2. [Cited: December 31, 2012.]
		</li>
<li id="note02">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rampage_killers">List of Rampage Killers</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note03">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xerox_murders">Xerox Murders</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note04">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nidal_Malik_Hasan">Nidal Malik Hasan</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note05">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_McVeigh">Timothy McVeigh</a>.Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note06">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Lee_Loughner">Jared Lee Loughner</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note07">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Harris_and_Dylan_Klebold">Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold</a>. Wiki pedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note08">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Whitman">Charles Whitman</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note09">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_McVeigh">Timothy McVeigh</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note10">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Harris_and_Dylan_Klebold">Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold</a>. Wikipedia .org.
		</li>
<li id="note11">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seung-Hui_Cho">Seung-Hui Cho</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note12">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Lee_Loughner">Jared Lee Loughner</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note13">
			Frequently, they have a second or related disorder, like schizophrenia or psychopathy.
		</li>
<li id="note14">
			A delusion is defined as a fixed false belief where the believer cannot be persuaded to another belief despite being presented with contrary evidence.
		</li>
<li id="note15">
			Robert A. Hahn, et al. 2013. &#8220;<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm">First Reports Evaluating the Effectiveness of Strategies for Preventing Violence: Firearms Laws</a>.&#8221; CDC.gov. Center for Disease Control, October 3. [Cited: January 1, 2013.]
		</li>
<li id="note16">
			Federal Bureau of Investigation. &#8220;<a href="http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr">Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives for Investigators</a>.&#8221; FBI.gov.
		</li>
<li id="note17">
			The attacks of September 11, 2001 are not included in this analysis because it was a terrorist attack by a foreign organization with a political motive. However, it was the largest mass murder event in U.S. history and it happened during the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.
		</li>
<li id="note18">
			When more than one type of gun was present, victims were counted based on perpetrator preference for semi-automatic weapons first, then long guns, then handguns.
		</li>
<li id="note19">
			&#8220;Active Shooter&#8221; is police jargon for an attack in progress by a person with a loaded gun.
		</li>
<li id="note20">
			Zamudio, Joe. 2011. &#8220;Joe Zamudio, Armed Citizen Hero.&#8221; Sierra Vista: Proarmspodcast.com, May 1, 068.
		</li>
<li id="note21">
			Badger, Bill, Patricia Maisch, Roger Sulzgeber and Joe Zamudio. 2011. &#8220;EastcARstle.&#8221; [<a href="http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1135538_Rep__Giffords_shooting__COL__ret__Bill_Badger__Patricia_Maisch_Roger_Sulzgeber_and_Joe_Zamudio.html">Archived Thread</a>] &#8212; Rep. Giffords shooting: COL (ret.) AR15.com. AR15.com, January 9. [Cited: January 3, 2013.]
		</li>
<li id="note22">
			ABC News. 2011. &#8220;Woman Wrestled Fresh Ammo Clip From Tucson Shooter as He Tried to Reload.&#8221; ABCNews. com. The Walt Disney Company, January 9. [Cited: January 3, 2013.]
		</li>
<li id="note23">
			CBS News. 2011. &#8220;<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-201_162-7247244.html">Authorities Release Detailed Loughner Timeline</a>.&#8221; CBSNews.com. CBS Corporation, January 11. [Cited: January 3, 2013.]
		</li>
<li id="note24">
			Saletan, William. 2011. &#8220;<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/human_nature/2011/01/friendly_firearms.html">Friendly Firearms&#8212; Gabrielle Giffords and the Perils of Guns: How an Armed Hero Nearly Shot the Wrong Man</a>.&#8221; Slate.com. The Washington Post Company, January 11. [Cited: January 3, 2013.]
		</li>
<li id="note25">
			Vedantam, Shankar and David Schultz. 2013. &#8220;<a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/01/02/167984117/-stand-your-groundlinked-to-increase-in-homicide">&#8216;Stand Your Ground&#8217; Linked To Increase In Homicides</a>.&#8221; NPR.org January 2.
		</li>
<li id="note26">
			Hoekstra, Mark and Cheng, Cheng. 2012. &#8220;<a href="http://econweb.tamu.edu/mhoekstra/castle_doctrine.pdf">Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence of Castle Doctrine</a>.&#8221; TAMU.edu. December 17. [Cited: January 3, 2013.].
		</li>
<li id="note27">
			According to the FBI, &#8220;The FBI&#8217;s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. The classification of this offense is based solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body. The UCR program does not include the following situations in this offense classification: deaths caused by negligence, suicide, or accident. Similarly, justifiable homicides and attempts to murder are scored as aggravated assaults.&#8221;
		</li>
<li id="note28">
			Felony related homicides are defined by the FBI as rape, robbery, burglary, larceny- theft, motor vehicle theft, arson, prostitution and commercialized vice, other sex offenses, narcotic drug use, or gambling that turn into homicide.
		</li>
<li id="note29">
			Non-Felony related homicides are defined by the FBI as a romantic triangle, a child killed by babysitter, brawls due to alcohol or narcotics, arguments over money or property, other arguments, gangland killings, juvenile gang killings, institutional killings, and sniper attacks.
		</li>
<li id="note30">
			<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_%20Minimum_Drinking_Age_Act">National Minimum Drinking Age Act</a>. Wikipedia.org.
		</li>
<li id="note31">
			Hiifner, Heinz, Wolfram an der Heiden, Stephan Behrens, Wagner F. Qattaz. 1998. &#8220;Causes and Consequences of the Gender Difference in Age at Onset of Schizophrenia.&#8221; Oxford Journals, <em>Schizophrenia Bulletin</em>, Vol. 24, 1, s.l.
		</li>
<li id="note32">
			Negative symptoms of schizophrenia include loss of emotional range and impaired relationships.
		</li>
<li id="note33">
			Positive symptoms of schizophrenia include hallucinations and psychotic episodes.
		</li>
<li id="note34">
			Hafner, Heinz, Kurt Mauer, Walter Loffler, and Anita Riecher-Rossler. 1993. &#8220;The Influence of Age and Sex on the Onset and Early Course of Schizophrenia.&#8221; <em>British Journal of Psychiatry</em>, Vol. 162. DOI: 10.1192/bjp.162.1.80.
		</li>
<li id="note35">
			Moolenaar, Ronald L. (Ed.) 2011. &#8220;Mental Illness Surveillance Among Adults in the United States.&#8221; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Atlanta, GA: Office of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services, <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6003a1.htm?s_cid=su6003a1_w"><em>Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report</em></a>, Vol. 60 (Supplemental), September 2.
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		<title>13-05-01</title>
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		<comments>http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/13-05-01/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2013 07:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[eSkeptic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Benjamin Radford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gullibility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media-driven hoaxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media-driven panics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sensationalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sharon Hill]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[skepticism of the media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Martians Have Landed]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25147</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Sharon Hill reviews <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786464984/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=0786464984&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Martians Have Landed: A History of Media-driven Panics and Hoaxes</em></a>, by Robert E. Bartholomew and Benjamin Radford (McFarland, 2012, ISBN: 978-0786464982).]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #dce6e6; padding: 20px;">
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em> eSkeptic</em>:</p>
<ul class="toc" style="padding-left: 20px;">
<li><a href="#lectures"> <strong>Next Lecture at Caltech</strong>: Dr. Daphne J. Fairbairn on Extraordinary Differences between the Sexes in the Animal Kingdom </a></li>
<li><a href="#followShermer"> <strong>Follow Michael Shermer</strong>: Gun Science: How data can help clarify the&nbsp;gun-control&nbsp;debate </a></li>
<li><a href="#Charles-Knight"> <strong>Upcoming Event</strong>: Richard Milner on <em style="font-weight: normal;">Charles R. Knight: The Artist Who Saw Through Time</em></a></li>
<li><a href="#feature"> <strong>Feature Article</strong>: Of Martians and Media </a></li>
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<h4 style="margin: 10px 0 20px 0; font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; color: #434336;">Our Next Lecture at Caltech:<br />DR. DAPHNE J. FAIRBAIRN</h4>
<div style="display: block; width: 210px; float: left; margin: 0 20px 10px 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/lectures/images/Daphne-Fairbairn.jpg" alt="Daphne Fairbairn" width="200" height="273" class="boxShadow" /></div>
<h5 style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">Odd Couples: Extraordinary Differences between the Sexes in the Animal Kingdom</h5>
<p>with Dr. Daphne J. Fairbairn<br /><strong>Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 2 pm </strong></p>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">WHILE WE JOKE that men are from Mars and women are from Venus, our gender differences can&#8217;t compare to those of other animals. For instance: the male garden spider spontaneously dies after mating with a female more than 50 times his size. Female cichlids must guard their eggs and larvae&#8212;even from the hungry appetites of their own partners. And male blanket octopuses employ a copulatory arm longer than their own bodies to mate with females that outweigh them by four orders of magnitude. Why do these gender gulfs exist? This lecture, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691141967/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0691141967&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">her book</a>, explores some of the most extraordinary sexual differences in the animal world. From the fields of Spain to the deep oceans, evolutionary biologist Daphne Fairbairn uncovers the unique and bizarre characteristics that exist in these remarkable species and the special strategies they use to maximize reproductive success. Fairbairn also considers humans and explains that although we are keenly aware of our own sexual differences, they are unexceptional within the vast animal world.</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691141967/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0691141967&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the book from Amazon</a></p>
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<h4 style="color: #d5ca91; margin-top: 10px; font: 14px/20px Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-style: normal; font-size: 10px; color: #787; font-weight: normal;"> NEW ON MICHAELSHERMER.COM</span><br />Gun Science: How data can help clarify the gun-control debate</h4>
<p>In Michael Shermer&#8217;s May 2013 &#8216;Skeptic&#8217; column for <em>Scientific American</em>, he asks &#8220;What can be done about gun violence?&#8221; Shermer shares some insights that data provides, and dispels some of the myths about guns that don&#8217;t stand up to the facts.</p>
<p class="formbutton" style="margin: 30px 0;"><a href="http://www.michaelshermer.com/2013/05/gun-science/"> READ THE POST </a></p>
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<div class="StoryBanner" style="height: 499px;"><img alt="Charles R. Knight: The Artist Who Saw Through Time (book cover)" src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2012/images/12-03-14/Knight-book-cover.jpg" width="548" height="499" style="border: 0;" />
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<h4 style="margin: 10px 0 20px 0; font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; color: #434336;">The Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History presents&#8230;</h4>
<div style="display: block; width: 210px; float: left; margin: 0 20px 10px 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-01/Richard-Milner.jpg" alt="Richard Milner" width="200" height="200" class="boxShadow" /></div>
<h5 style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">Charles R. Knight:<br />The Artist Who Saw<br />Through Time</h5>
<p>with Richard Milner<br /><strong>Thursday, May 9, 2013 at 5:30 pm </strong><br /><a href="http://peabody.yale.edu/events/ostrom-talk/charles-r-knight-artist-who-saw-through-time">Yale Peabody Museum</a>,<br />170 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, CT<br />(203) 432-5050<br />Free Admission<br />Book signing to follow</p>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">RICHARD MILNER OF THE AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY has authored a new biography of Charles R. Knight (1874&#8212;1953), the famed Brooklyn-born paleoartist and muralist who &#8220;invented&#8221; our visions of dinosaurs, mammoths and prehistoric peoples.</p>
<p>Milner&#8217;s illustrated talk takes us back to the early days of the American Museum and the Bronx Zoo, where Knight sketched a thousand species of living animals before working with paleontologists to bring dry fossil bones back to life. This full-color art book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0810984792/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0810984792&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Charles R. Knight: The Artist Who Saw Through Time</em></a> (Abrams, 2012), presents the most complete compilation of Knight&#8217;s famous works, as well as many &#8220;lost&#8221; images never before published. Knight&#8217;s paintings inspired generations of scientists and filmmakers, as well as children&#8217;s imaginations &#8212; and the Rudolph Zallinger murals in the Yale Peabody Museum. Rhoda Knight Kalt, the artist&#8217;s granddaughter, will briefly share childhood reminiscences of &#8220;Toppy.&#8221;</p>
<p class="formbutton"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0810984792/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0810984792&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the book from Amazon</a></p>
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<div style="height: 430px; border: 1px solid #666; border-bottom: 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-01/The-Martians-Have-Landed-cover-detail.jpg" width="548" height="430" style="border: 0;" alt="The Martians Have Landed: A History of Media-driven Panics and Hoaxes (detail of book cover)" />
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<h5 style="font-style: normal; margin-top: 5px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">About this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em></h5>
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Sharon Hill reviews <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786464984/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0786464984&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Martians Have Landed: A History of Media-driven Panics and Hoaxes</em></a>, by Robert E. Bartholomew and Benjamin Radford (McFarland, 2012, ISBN: 978-0786464982). Sharon Hill is a researcher and writer specializing in science and the public and is the creator of the critical thinking news blog <a href="http://DoubtfulNews.com/">DoubtfulNews.com</a>.</p>
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<h4>Of Martians and Media</h4>
<p class="Author">book review by Sharon Hill</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal;"> &#8220;</span>Such is the nature of the media with its focus on the unusual and the sensational that it often paints a distorted picture of the world.&#8221;</p>
<p>So begins Bartholomew and Radford&#8217;s book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786464984/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0786464984&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Martians Have Landed: A History of Media-driven Panics and Hoaxes</em></a>.</p>
<p>After this book went to press, we saw additional media panics and hoaxes in the false news spread in the hours before and during Superstorm Sandy that hit New Jersey and New York City in October of 2012, such as the nurse who committed suicide after being the victim of radio hosts calls to the Duchess of Cambridge, Kate Middleton&#8217;s hospital ward, and the public outrage, fear and conspiracy mongering that took place immediately after the Sandy Hook shooting. All of these events have their antecedents in stories documented in <em>The Martians Have Landed</em>.</p>
<p>The volume consists of 36 mostly short chapters written primarily by the two main authors but with several guests. The guests&#8217; contributions tend to be slightly longer and more detailed, which makes for unevenness in the flow, but this book is meant to be a panoply of examples. Some of the examples feel familiar (even though I was not there), and readers can see how humans repeatedly react to the same stimuli with different variables even decades later.</p>
<p>Today, the Internet disperses rumor and gossip globally in hours. And once the horse is out of the barn, the act of closing the door is difficult if not impossible. And if it is, only a small sliver of the original audience hears about it. And the myths are perpetuated.</p>
<p>Broken into sections corresponding to the source of the story&#8212;radio, television, newspapers, the Internet, friend of a friend, and everywhere at once&#8212;this collection contains fascinating stories that you might not believe could happened&#8230;but they did. Not all the pieces are satisfying&#8212;some are too short or just end abruptly&#8212;but collectively, it&#8217;s an enjoyable parade of illustrative examples.</p>
<p>The first chapter hooked me. Did you know there was a major radio hoax that terrified London in 1926 <em>before</em> the famous H.G. Wells &#8220;War of the World&#8221; Martian invasion event? I didn&#8217;t. The best part was that American reporters noted that the same kind of thing could not happen here in the U.S. We wouldn&#8217;t fall for such mania! Yet, we did and still do. Over and over. Why?</p>
<p>We rely on our networks (the media, our friends and family) to inform us about trouble. It&#8217;s not that everyone is just gullible. It&#8217;s more about weighing what we see and hear and feel and making the decision we need to make from what we have to work with. If that means thinking that wild animals are on the loose in the city (Central Park Zoo escape hoax) or worrying that there is a razor wielding slasher sneaking around (Ghost slasher of Taiwan) or being paranoid that strangers are waiting around every corner to abduct our kids (Stranger Danger and the Predator Next Door), we reveal what social animals we are.</p>
<p>Problems arise when the information is not accurate or is a deliberate concoction. In the case of radio and TV fictional dramas that (at least some of) the audience thought was real, we see the failure of the disclaimers. People miss them or don&#8217;t pay attention. Or, other factors overwhelm assurances, such as a serious tone, historical context, or delivery from trusted sources.</p>
<p>For example, in a chapter devoted to the Satanic Panic of the 1980s and 1990s that was sparked by a best selling book and then fueled by problematic psychotherapy techniques, the authors note that claims of upwards of 50,000 victims of kidnapping and sacrifice went unchallenged. Yet, there was not a single verified case! The tales drew from a societal fear of an evil secret network where victims were subject to horrific scenes with trusted members of the community doing unspeakable things. These stories grew in conjunction with the expansion of television programming. With the explosion of talk shows, hosts such as Geraldo Rivera garnered lots of viewers when the topic generated a moral panic such as the lurid tales of Satanic ritual abuse.</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786464984/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0786464984&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-05-01/The-Martians-Have-Landed-cover.jpg" alt="The Martians Have Landed: A History of Media-driven Panics and Hoaxes (book cover)" width="225" height="341" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786464984/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0786464984&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the paperback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B006JZO14Q/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B006JZO14Q&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the Kindle Edition">Order the Kindle Edition</a></p>
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<p>My favorite chapter was about The Batmen on the Moon, an 1835 story that marked the beginning of tabloid journalism. The hoax story included sciencey bits that are so often compelling to readers to convince them of trustworthiness. But the rival newspapers, attempting to fact check, couldn&#8217;t confirm the story and worried that they were either missing out on a huge story or, if they bit, they would look foolish for falling for a hoax. Today, with the immediate transmission of news, rumor and gossip on the same social media channels, it hardly matters. The push is for speed, not accuracy. Scoops, not integrity.</p>
<p>The media does not anticipate nor feel very much responsibility for the consequences of spreading less than true tales. We have seen the results in the decline of vaccination rates due to unfounded fears and the spread of conspiracy theories into the mainstream.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why the topic of media-driven panics and hoaxes is very important to comprehend. We are fooled. Often. And we should remember that media is a business more so than a public service. Hyperinflation and sensationalism is the M.O. It has been in the past and will be as far as I can see down the road, and so <em>The Martians Have Landed</em> serves as both a history and prophetic caution for future skepticism of the media. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" /></p>
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		<title>Give and Take: A Revolutionary Approach to Success</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Skepticcom/~3/dh2iMBi2mUw/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skeptic.com/past-lectures/give-and-take-a-revolutionary-approach-to-success/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Apr 2013 21:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[past-lectures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dr. Adam Grant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[give and take]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[networking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[organizational psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psychology of human interactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[success]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25141</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this lecture, based on his book on the psychology of human interactions, organizational psychologist Dr. Adam Grant (the youngest tenured professor at the Wharton Business School) argues that as much as hard work, talent and luck, the way we choose to interact with other people defines our success or failure. <em>Give and Take</em> demolishes the “me-first” worldview and shows that the best way to get to the top is to focus not on your solo journey but on bringing others with you.]]></description>
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		IN THIS LECTURE, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670026557/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0670026557&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">his book</a> on the psychology of human interactions, organizational psychologist Dr. Adam Grant (the youngest tenured professor at the Wharton Business School) argues that as much as hard work, talent and luck, the way we choose to interact with other people defines our success or failure. <em>Give and Take</em> demolishes the &#8220;me-first&#8221; worldview and shows that the best way to get to the top is to focus not on your solo journey but on bringing others with you. Grant reveals how one of America&#8217;s best networkers developed his connections, why a creative genius behind one of the most popular shows in television history toiled for years in anonymity, how a basketball executive responsible for multiple draft busts turned things around, and how we could have anticipated Enron&#8217;s demise four years before the company collapsed&#8212;without ever looking at a single number.
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		<title>13-04-24</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Apr 2013 07:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[eSkeptic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[abundance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merchants of Despair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Diamandis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Zubrin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25137</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Dr. Edward Hudgins reviews two books: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451614217/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=1451614217&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;tag=skepticcom-" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think</em></a>, by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594034761/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=1594034761&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism</em></a>, by Robert Zubrin.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #dce6e6; padding: 20px;">
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em> eSkeptic</em>:</p>
<ul class="toc" style="padding-left: 20px;">
<li><a href="#Skepticality"><strong>Skepticality Episode 206</strong>: Superlaw! </a></li>
<li><a href="#feature"> <strong>Feature Article</strong>: It&#8217;s Getting Better All the Time </a></li>
<li><a href="#lectures"> <strong>Lecture this Sunday</strong>: Dr. Adam Grant on a Revolutionary Approach to Success</a></li>
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<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #d6e6e6; padding: 20px;">
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 0 0 20px 30px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592407269/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1592407269&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-24/The-Law-of-Superheroes-cover.jpg" alt="The Law of Superhoroes (book cover)" width="225" height="338" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592407269/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1592407269&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the hardback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592408397/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1592408397&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the paperback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B007T99LK0/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B007T99LK0&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the Kindle Edition">Order the Kindle Edition</a></p>
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<h5 style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0;">Superlaw!<br /><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; font-style: normal; font-size: 10px; color: #555; font-weight: normal;"> SKEPTICALITY EPISODE 206</span></h5>
<p>This week on <em>Skepticality</em>, Derek chats with James Daily and Ryan Davidson, the creators of the popular legal blog, <a href="http://lawandthemultiverse.com/">Law and The Multiverse</a> and the newly released book based on the site, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592407269/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1592407269&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The&nbsp;Law of Superheroes</em></a>. If there&#8217;s one thing that many science and reality-minded people tend to do quite a bit, it&#8217;s over analyze every little detail in the movies, TV shows, books, etc., that they find entertaining. James and Ryan, being lawyers, decided to take that same mindset and explore what might happen, legally, if some of the fantastic things depicted in comic books and superhero entertainment actually happend in real life.</p>
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<div style="height: 396px; border: 1px solid #666; border-bottom: 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-24/Merchants-of-Despair-cover-detail.jpg" width="548" height="396" style="border: 0;" alt="Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism (detail of book cover)" />
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<h5 style="font-style: normal; margin-top: 5px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">About this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em></h5>
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Dr. Edward Hudgins reviews two books: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451614217/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1451614217&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think</em></a>, by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594034761/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1594034761&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism</em></a>, by Robert Zubrin. <a href="#Hudgins">Read Dr. Edward Hudgins&#8217; bio</a> at the end of the reviews.</p>
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<h4>It&#8217;s Getting Better All the Time</h4>
<p class="Author">book reviews by Edward Hudgins</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal;"> W</span>hat does the future hold for humanity? One answer&#8212;an optimistic one&#8212;is outlined in these two volumes that come at the question from two perspectives. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451614217/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1451614217&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think</em></a>, by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler, takes a purely positive perspective, while Robert Zubrin&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594034761/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1594034761&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism</em></a> comes to its optimism by means of debunking the pessimists. As a bonus, both offer us components for a new Enlightenment synthesis that can usher in profound cultural changes well beyond the particulars in the pages of these books.</p>
<p>Interestingly, both Diamandis and Zubrin are prominent new space advocates who see a future for humanity in the heavens. Diamandis heads the <a href="http://www.xprize.org/">X-Prize</a> project. It offered $10 million to the first private party to build a reusable vehicle capable of carrying three humans into space twice in a two-week period. Burt Rutan&#8217;s SpaceShipOne won that prize in October 2004. Since then entrepreneur Richard Bransen has created Virgin Galaxy to use Rutan&#8217;s systems to provide commercial sub-orbital flights. In 2009 Diamandis partnered with futurist Ray Kurzweil to found <a href="http://singularityu.org/">Singularity University</a>, which seeks to leverage the power of exponential technologies to meet humanity&#8217;s grand challenges. And in 2012 he co-founded <a href="http://www.planetaryresources.com/">Planetary Resources Inc</a>. with space entrepreneur Eric Anderson, Google&#8217;s Eric Schmidt and Larry Page, and filmmaker/explorer James Cameron, dedicated to mining asteroids.</p>
<p>Dr. Zubrin, with degrees in aeronautic, astronautics, and nuclear engineering, founded the <a href="http://www.marssociety.org/">Mars Society</a> in 1998 to promote the exploration, settlement and, ultimately, terraforming of the Red Planet to make it into another habitat for humanity. His innovative mission model potentially would allow humans to visit Mars for a fraction of the cost projected by NASA. Zubrin has also written on energy policy and even penned a sci-fi satire.</p>
<h5>Abundance is Possible</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">Let&#8217;s start with the thesis of <em>Abundance</em>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Humanity is now entering a period of radical transformation in which technology has the potential to significantly raise the basic standards of living for every man, woman, and child on the planet. Within a generation, we will be able to provide goods and services, once reserved for the wealthiest, to any and all who need them.</p>
</blockquote>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451614217/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1451614217" title="Order the book from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-24/Abundance-cover.jpg" alt="Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think (cover)" width="225" height="341" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451614217/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1451614217" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the hardback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451695764/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1451695764&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the paperback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B005FLOGMM/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B005FLOGMM&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the Kindle Edition">Order the Kindle Edition</a></p>
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<p><em>Abundance</em> highlights advances in a number of sectors and technologies that the authors argue will work together, create synergies, and leverage one another to propel the world into an era of plenty. The authors attempt to demonstrate that building on the still-in-full-force information and communications revolutions, innovations in areas like healthcare, energy, education, robotics, and food production will yield double dividends. This, they explain, is because those innovations will allow for what F.A. Hayek called catallaxy, that is, the ever-expanding benefits of division of labor; Hayek himself applied this term to pricing, resource allocation, and all market activities. Diamandis points to three forces that, at this point in history, make exponential material progress possible.</p>
<p>First is the <em>Do-It-Yourself</em> revolution. For example, most Americans know of the late Steve Jobs, who co-founded Apple Computer, operated it initially out of his parents&#8217; garage, challenged the IBM-Big-Mainframe model, and transformed the communications and information sectors. Diamandis himself helped spur the private, low-cost commercial space revolution with the X-Prize. And <a href="http://www.jcvi.org/">Craig Venter</a> tied the big-budgeted U.S. government in the race to decipher the human genome.</p>
<p>A second force is generous financial support from such <em>techno-philanthropists</em> as Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, and PayPal co-founder Elon Musk; the latter now heads <a href="http://www.spacex.com/">SpaceX</a>, which has sent two private rockets to the International Space Station. Such techno-philanthropists are funding many of the innovations that will create the prosperous world of tomorrow.</p>
<p>A third force is the <em>bottom billion</em>, the poorest of the poor who are finally plugging into the global economy thanks to the communications and information revolution and huge drops in transportation costs. Their talents and efforts are contributing to that economy of which they are also the major beneficiaries. They are becoming what Diamandis calls the &#8220;rising billion.&#8221;</p>
<p>With the thesis that global abundance is now possible thanks to these forces, Diamandis and Kotler turn to the revolutions in particular areas.</p>
<h5>Drinking Water</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">It is estimated that the bacteria in contaminated water that causes diarrhea alone accounts for the deaths of 1.8 million children annually. So the authors introduce us to Dean Kamen, best-known as the inventor of the Segway, which we see scooting around city streets and factory warehouses. But he is also tackling the challenge of bringing potable water to the bottom billion. Kamen needed to create a device that not only could filter virtually any liquid, no matter how contaminated, into drinkable water but also that could operate in parts of the world where electrical outlets are a rarity. So Kamen employed an engine that in a pinch could even run on animal dung. The filtering device had to be small, like a mini-fridge, and rarely need repairs since obtaining spare parts in the least-developed parts of the world is often impossible. And the device had to be affordable.</p>
<p>Kamen created the &#8220;Slingshot,&#8221; which can produce 250 gallons of clean water per day. The cost of making a prototype was about $100,000, but with mass production he figured the device, including its engine, would cost about $5,000, with a five-year operating life. Still, even $5,000 is too pricy for the poorest of the poor. But Kamen is teaming up with <a href="http://www.coca-colacompany.com/stories/slingshot-inventor-dean-kamens-revolutionary-clean-water-machine">Coca Cola</a> to help build, distribute, and use its supply chain&#8212;the largest in Africa&#8212;to help maintain the Slingshot.</p>
<h5>Health</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">Diagnosis is the sine qua non for any medical treatment. In the developed world the all-important X-ray is easily available, but involves quarter-million dollar machines the size of dishwashers. The authors introduce us to Carlos Camera, a UCLA grad student researching materials properties who made an important discovery. Pull a piece of scotch tape off of a roll in a dark room and you see it gives off a glow. Camera found that those little flashes, called triboluminescence, contain X-rays. So Camera teamed up with entrepreneur Dale Fox to found <a href="http://tribogenics.com/">Tribogenics</a> to develop the smallest and cheapest X-ray devices based on this principle. Soon poor Africans might have in their reach tools for diagnosing injuries and illnesses.</p>
<p>Diamandis and Kotler also introduce us to entrepreneur George Whitesides, whose long-term goal is &#8220;zero-cost diagnosis.&#8221; Here is one of his inventions to help bring this about:</p>
<blockquote><p>A piece of paper about one centimeter on a side, able to wick fluid. Place a pinprick of blood or a drop of urine on the edge of Whitesides&#8217;s paper, and the fluid soaks in, migrating through the fibers. A hydrophobic polymer printed on this paper guides the fluids along prescribed channels, toward a set of testing wells, wherein the sample interacts with reagents, turning the paper different colors &#8230; brown in the presence of sugar &#8230; blue in the presence of protein.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The authors give us other examples of technology that not only will help the bottom billion but can deliver to those lucky enough to live in advanced counties better healthcare as well.</p>
<h5>Education</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">In the chapter on education Diamandis and Kotler don&#8217;t introduce us to new killer-app inventions but, rather, show us how laptops, tablets, the Internet, and the other components of the communications and information revolution are revolutionizing teaching and learning.</p>
<p>The authors explain that today education in the developed world is a legacy of the 19th century Industrial Revolution. That model had teachers inserting knowledge in one-size-fits-all assembly-line style into the heads of students as they moved from one classroom to another. But while this approach brought basic literacy and knowledge to millions of people in the past, it neither reflects how children actually learn nor prepares them for a world in which information relevant for their lives is changing at an ever-increasing rate.</p>
<p>To show us how to think about education, the authors introduce us to Sugata Mitra, a physicist in India who got interested in education. A thick wall separated his office building from a nearby impoverished slum. So he devised an experiment:</p>
<blockquote><p>He cut a hole in the wall and installed a computer with a track pad, with the screen and pad facing into the slum. He did it in such a way that theft was not a problem, then connected the computer to the Internet&#8230; The kids who lived in the slums could not speak English, did not know how to use a computer, and had no knowledge of the Internet, but they were curious. Within minutes, they&#8217;d figured out how to point and click. By the end of the first day they were surfing the web and &#8230; teaching one another how to surf the web.</p>
</blockquote>
<div style="float: right; width: 210px; margin: 0 0 10px 25px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/av249"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/lectures/images/Peter-Diamandis.jpg" alt="Pater Diamandis" width="200" height="247" class="boxShadow" /> </a><br />
<h5 style="font: 14px/18px Verdana, sans-serif; margin: 0 0 8px 8px;">Abundance: Why the Future Will Be Much Better Than You Think (DVD)</h5>
<p class="caption">Since the dawn of humanity, a privileged few have lived in stark contrast to the hardscrabble majority. Conventional wisdom says this gap cannot be closed. But it is closing&#8212;fast. According to the X-Prize creator and entrepreneur Peter H. Diamandis, we will soon be able to meet and exceed the basic needs of every man, woman and child on the planet. Abundance for all is within our grasp through four forces: exponential technologies, the DIY innovator, the Technophilanthropist, and the Rising Billion. Diamandis establishes hard targets for change and lays out a strategic roadmap for governments, industry and entrepreneurs, giving us plenty of reason for optimism.</p>
<p class="caption" style="margin-top:8px;">This lecture took place at Caltech, hosted by the Skeptics Society on February 26, 2012.</p>
<p class="caption" style="margin-top:8px;"><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/av249"><strong>Order Diamandis&#8217; lecture on DVD</strong></a></p>
</div>
<p>Mitra followed through with similar experiments, seeking to understand what students could learn and retain on their own, with minimal encouragement and guidance. The answer was, a lot! The authors offer us insights concerning how technology can transform education in both the developing and developed world. Most important, they show us that education, to be effective, must be tailored to the individual student.</p>
<h5>Entrepreneurial Drivers</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">We glean three important insights from the review by Diamandis and Kotler of innovators and their innovations.</p>
<p>First, respect for the power of human reason gives us an almost infinite capacity to change the world for the better. The pre-modern and post-modern ideologies hold that humans are ultimately ignorant and impotent in the face of divine providence or the forces of nature. This erroneous philosophical assumption has no place in the abundance worldview.</p>
<p>Second, individuals are the driving force behind human progress. It&#8217;s Gates, Jobs, Zuckerberg, Venter, Kamen, Camera, Whitesides, Mitra, Rutan, Musk, Kurzweil, and a long list of others&#8212;not impersonal social forces&#8212;who make the difference between poverty and abundance.</p>
<p>Third, the individuals creating the world of abundance love their work. Yes, they say that they work for the good of humanity and a more prosperous world for all is certainly the result of their efforts. But it is their love of meeting impossible challenges, challenges that call on the best within them, that really motivates them and that deserves our emulation.</p>
<h5>Environmentalist Fallacies</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">Arguably, the most serious concern about the abundance scenario is the authors&#8217; views about environmental problems. They begin the book by citing the prediction of the English thinker Thomas Malthus (1766&#8211;1834) that while production grows linearly, population grows exponentially. This means that as human populations grow, there will inevitably be shortages. Populations must be limited because resources are.</p>
<p>Fast-forward to 1968 and we find Paul Ehrlich predicting in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1568495870/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1568495870&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Population Bomb</em></a> that decades hence will find millions of dead bodies in the streets as humans run out of resources to exploit. In 1972 the Club of Rome published <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0876639015/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0876639015&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Limits of Growth</em></a> as a clarion call to recognize that resources and, thus, human progress are limited and that we must resign ourselves to lower living standards.</p>
<p>Diamandis and Kotler say that while many of the Malthusians&#8217; &#8220;more dire predictions have failed to materialize, for the most part the years haven&#8217;t softened the assessment. Today we are still finding proof of &#8230; [their] veracity most places we look.&#8221; But the thesis of <em>Abundance</em> is that technology offers a way out of the Malthusian dilemma and the other concerns of environmentalists.</p>
<p>Perhaps we should assume that the authors are saying &#8220;all other things being equal, Malthus is right, but all other things are never equal, thanks to technology.&#8221; Or one might simply argue that the revolutions the authors highlight are good in any case even if one rejects Malthusian and extreme environmentalist assumptions and fears. But there are very serious dangers lurking in those assumptions and fears that today are undermining the vision of a bright future that the authors see as possible.</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 15px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594034761/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1594034761&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-24/Merchants-of-Despair-cover.jpg" width="225" height="340" alt="Merchants" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594034761/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1594034761&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the hardback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B007PTM3MW/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B007PTM3MW&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the Kindle Edition">Order the Kindle Edition</a></p>
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<h5>Zubrin vs. Malthus</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">Here we turn to Robert Zubrin&#8217;s book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594034761/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1594034761&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Merchants of Despair</em></a>. Zubrin&#8217;s thesis is that two diametrically opposed views of human beings are in conflict in our world today. One is that humanity is &#8220;something precious, worth protecting and fighting for.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p>Starting with the Biblical idea of the human spirit as the image of God, taken forward by Renaissance humanists defending the dignity of man, our greatest thinkers developed a concept of civilization dedicated to human betterment and &#8220;unalienable rights&#8221; among which are &#8220;Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness&#8230;&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He contrasts this view with the one expressed in a Club of Rome report, that &#8220;The World Has Cancer and the Cancer Is Man.&#8221; Zubrin explains that according to this view, humans are &#8220;a horde of vermin whose unconstrained aspirations and appetites are endangering the natural order. This is the core idea of <em>antihumanism</em>.&#8221; The consequence of this view is that &#8220;One does not provide liberty to vermin. One does not seek to advance the cause of cancer.&#8221;</p>
<p>Zubrin argues that Malthus was not simply speaking as a scientist conveying the unfortunate fact that population always outstrips food supplies and, thus, will be limited one way or another. Malthus was attacking the Enlightenment notion that &#8220;human liberty, expanded knowledge, and technological progress could ultimately make possible a decent life for all mankind.&#8221;</p>
<p>Zubrin next turns to a review of the assault on humans unleashed by what he calls &#8220;Darwinism.&#8221; Charles Darwin himself described how the process of natural selection and the struggle for survival explains the emergence of various species. But as Zubrin explains, &#8220;this purported universal law of nature <em>when applied to human affairs</em> leads to wildly incorrect conclusions &#8230; and catastrophically unethical policies.&#8221; Zubrin is clear that he accepts evolution as a fact; he&#8217;s no Creationist. He might, however, be open to criticism for the constant use of the term &#8220;Darwinism.&#8221; Today Creationists, who are enemies of science and reason, focus on the unsound ideas and immoral policies&#8212;documented by Zubrin&#8212;that were promoted in the past as extensions of evolution. Then, in an intellectually dishonest move, these Creationists suggest that these ideas and policies discredit the fact of evolution itself.</p>
<p>But Zubrin&#8217;s discussion is of more than antiquarian interest. First, the essence of the antihuman idea perpetuated by the Darwinists was placing the group above the wellbeing of individuals, an idea that&#8217;s still very much a threat to humanity today. And second, many of the very individuals who promoted the mistaken applications of Darwin&#8217;s insights later went on to found and to influence major parts of today&#8217;s environmental movement. Zubrin reviews the well-known horrors of Nazi eugenics and the attempts to create a Master Race on piles of human corpses, done in the name of Darwin. What is eye-opening is Zubrin&#8217;s documentation of how many prominent individuals in Western Europe and America also were seeking a better race at the expense of the individual before this goal was discredited by the Nazis. Progressive president Teddy Roosevelt, for example, argued that in Europe &#8220;the amount of Nordic blood in each nation is a very fair measure of its strength in war and standing in civilization.&#8221; And he argued that &#8220;It has taken us fifty years to learn that speaking English, wearing good clothes and going to school and to church does not transform a Negro into a white man.&#8221;</p>
<p>Zubrin writes of institutions and their backers seeking a superior race justified on Darwinian grounds. In 1894 the Immigration Restriction League was founded to keep &#8220;undesirables&#8221; like Jews and southern Europeans out of America. In 1905 the American Breeders Association, dedicated to producing better dogs, added a human genetics section. The second and third International Eugenics Congresses were held at the American Museum of Natural History; Henry Fairfield Osborn, the museum&#8217;s long-time president, arranged those meetings. The Eugenics Record Office was founded in 1910 and funded by the famous Harriman and Rockefeller families; it advocated forced sterilization. Zubrin relates how even feminist icon Margaret Sanger promoted this policy. Zubrin explains &#8220;scientific error in ascribing human progress to natural selection of hereditary traits&#8221;:</p>
<blockquote><p>Human beings, unlike other organisms, are capable of systematically passing on information through non-hereditary means, such as artifacts and words. &#8230; Because people can use their minds to create novel adaptations varying from technological innovations to better forms of social organization, human progress is chiefly governed by what people accomplish during their <em>lives</em>, rather than chiefly through the process of their winnowing out by <em>death</em>.</p>
</blockquote>
<h5>Too Many People?</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">After World War II, many of those involved in the eugenics movement, rather than acknowledging their errors, shifted their focus to controlling population size or to imbuing the environment with a value superior to humans. For example, Frederick Osborne, Henry Fairfield Osborne&#8217;s nephew, had been president of the American Eugenics Society and of the racist Pioneer Fund, which praised many Nazi policies in the 1930s. After the war he teamed up with John D. Rockefeller III to found the Population Council. In the decades that followed, they and others of their ilk spread the &#8220;people are pollution&#8221; dogma. As Zubrin explained, &#8220;Instead of seeking to rid the world of poverty, the new goal would be to rid the world of the poor.&#8221;</p>
<p>Population control became a centerpiece of American foreign aid. Funds were doled out to help countries not so much develop their economies, but to limit the number of their people.</p>
<p>Diamandis and Kotler rightly echo Zubrin in denouncing the attempts to control population by government, which often involved forced sterilizations and other such abuses. The <em>Abundance</em> authors argue, correctly, that as health improves in poorer countries, populations naturally stabilized. Parents are assured that most of their children won&#8217;t die before adulthood, that they will have offspring to take care of them in their old age, and thus they don&#8217;t need large families. But Zubrin would argue that Diamandis and Kotler need to appreciate what motivates many in the population control and environmental movements. For example, Paul Ehrlich stated that:</p>
<blockquote><p>A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. &#8230; We must shift our efforts from treatment of the symptoms to cutting out of the cancer. The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions. The pain may be intense.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When he advocated forcibly sterilizing every man in India with over three children, he said &#8220;Coercion? &#8230; Perhaps, but coercion in a good cause.&#8221; One can hardly think of a more Malthusian moral monster than Ehrlich. Yet he is still treated with adoration by many environmentalists today and even received a MacArthur Foundation genius grant in 1990, decades after his failed <em>Population Bomb</em> predictions.</p>
<h5>Antihuman Environmentalism</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">Zubrin reviews a number of hot button concerns of environmentalists. He does not criticize those environmentalists who wish to reduce real and measurable threats to the lives and health of humans from, for example, polluted air or water but, rather, those who would prefer to reduce the lives and health of humans.</p>
<p>Zubrin shows that one of the greatest boons to humanity was DDT, which was utilized as an insecticide starting in the 1930s. During World War II it was credited with saving tens of thousands of lives by killing lice and other vermin. In subsequent years it saved millions of lives in India, South Africa, and many other countries. For his role in adapting its use for public health, Paul M&#252;ller won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1948.</p>
<p>But Zubrin shows us how many environmentalists raised their voices in opposition. Most notably, in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0618249060/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0618249060&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Silent Spring</em></a>, published in 1962, Rachel Carson offered scientifically unsound hysteria that became a cause c&#233;l&#232;bre for the environmentalists. Even though no studies have shown DDT to be a major danger to birds, as Carson contended, much less humans, American politicians worked to ban it and to promote the ban in other countries. Zubrin says perhaps 100 million died in subsequent decades, mostly in Africa, because of restrictions on DDT.</p>
<p>Zubrin reviews the &#8220;Green Revolution&#8221; that started in the 1950s. Its hero was Norman Borlaug who, with his team, produced genetically modified strains of wheat and rice that could grow in a wider variety of environments and increase crop yields many-fold. Countries like India were finally able to feed their people. But many environmentalists were not celebrating this incredible achievement. Zubrin contends that their opposition to such crops was not based on any scientifically demonstrable health hazards; indeed, if the options are either starving or eating something that might bring a minor disease risk increase, it&#8217;s an easy choice. Rather, it was from a deep-seated antihumanism.</p>
<p>Because the documented benefits of such crops were clear and the downsides non-existent, Zubrin argues that opponents offered a bit of intellectual flimflam known as the &#8220;Precautionary Principle&#8221;: No invention should be permitted that cannot be proven in advance to be completely harmless. By this criterion, virtually none of the products, innovations, and technology that make up the modern world would have been allowed. Indeed, the fires lite by the first cavemen would have been quickly stomped out.</p>
<p>Zubrin similarly examines the environmentalist opposition to nuclear power, which he argues is an inexpensive and safe alternative to fossil fuels. For motive, he quotes Ehrlich, with Richard Harriman, saying &#8220;Power is too cheap. It should certainly be made more expensive and, perhaps, rationed, in order to reduce its frivolous use.&#8221;</p>
<p>Zubrin also examines the global warming controversy. He concedes that in the past century there has been a small amount of warming, that CO<sub>2</sub> is a likely culprit, and that humans played a role. But he argues that over many centuries and millennia the climate has changed radically, without the help of humans and without destroying humans. He contends that warming is slowing and that the adverse effects on humans of proposed policies to slow it further would dwarf the alleged adverse consequences of warming. Again, Zubrin tells us that for many environmentalists, &#8220;The cure of choice for global warming is human sacrifice.&#8221;</p>
<p>In all of the cases Zubrin reviews, one could argue that individuals sought to protect humans from harmful technologies, products, or practices. No doubt this is what many rank-and-file environmentalists believe. And it is always risky to ascribe to individuals insidious motivation rather than honest error. Some readers will be put off by the moral damnations that Zubrin offers. But Zubrin allows many of his subjects to damn themselves in their own words and their callousness toward individuals&#8212;sterilization, starvation&#8212;that cannot be excused as innocent. And he might have pointed to <a href="http://www.atlassociety.org/reducing-humans-carbon-ash">recent calls</a> for radical reductions in population as evidence of the accelerating erosion of humanist values.</p>
<p>And there are those today who grant intrinsic value to nature apart from its value to humans&#8212;valuing a forest because we enjoy its beauty or harvest its trees for lumber. This implies nature has &#8220;rights&#8221; and that we humans must sacrifice our own wellbeing lest we violate them. That is antihumanism. Zubrin challenges readers to examine closely their own beliefs.</p>
<h5>A New Enlightenment</h5>
<p class="ProseFirstLines">This brings us back to the thesis of <em>Abundance</em> and the unquestioned philosophical assumptions and values held by the inquirer wishing to know if humanity&#8217;s material future is bright or bleak. Diamandis and Kotler persuade us that prosperity is possible and inspire us with examples of those who are creating such a benevolent world. But they would be wise to heed Zubrin&#8217;s warnings of the antihuman ideology in the environmental movement. To overcome this ideology, these authors should understand that human well-being must be the beacon for guiding all value judgments and that the human unit is not the group but the individual. Zubrin is right that &#8220;Human beings, on balance, are creators, not destroyers.&#8221; That&#8217;s how Diamandis and Kotler see the &#8220;bottom billion&#8221; who they want to empower to rise and flourish rather than to kill off. Indeed, to be a human is to create the means of one&#8217;s physical survival and spiritual wellbeing.</p>
<p>We see in the optimism of Diamandis and Kotler, and in the insistence by Zubrin that we must always put humans first, the elements of a new Enlightenment synthesis that can take up where the first Enlightenment left off that transformed the world over three centuries ago. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" /></p>
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<h5 style="margin-bottom: 10px;">About the Author</h5>
<p style="text-indent: 0; font: 10px/18px Verdana, san-serif;"><strong>DR. EDWARD HUDGINS</strong> is director of advocacy and a senior scholar at <a href="http://www.atlassociety.org/">The Atlas Society</a>, which promotes open Objectivism. Hudgins has worked as director of regulatory studies for the Cato Institute, as a senior economist at the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, and was both deputy director for economic policy studies and director of the Center for International Economic Growth at the Heritage Foundation. Books he has edited include <em>An Objectivist Secular Reader</em>, <em>Space: The Free Market Frontier</em>, <em>Freedom to Trade: Refuting the New Protectionism</em>, and two books on postal service privatization. Hudgins has a B.A. from the University of Maryland, an M.A. from American University, and Ph.D. from Catholic University in political philosophy. He has taught at universities in the United States and in Germany.</p>
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<h4 style="font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 25px;">Our Next Lecture at Caltech:<br />DR. ADAM GRANT</h4>
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<h5 style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">Give and Take:<br />A Revolutionary Approach<br />to Success</h5>
<p>with Dr. Adam Grant<br /><strong>Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 2 pm</strong></p>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">IN THIS LECTURE, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670026557/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0670026557&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">his book</a> on the psychology of human interactions, organizational psychologist (and the youngest tenured professor at the Wharton Business School) argues that as much as hard work, talent and luck, the way we choose to interact with other people defines our success or failure. <em>Give and Take</em> demolishes the &#8220;me-first&#8221; worldview and shows that the best way to get to the top is to focus not on your solo journey but on bringing others with you. Grant reveals how one of America&#8217;s best networkers developed his connections, why a creative genius behind one of the most popular shows in television history toiled for years in anonymity, how a basketball executive responsible for multiple draft busts turned things around, and how we could have anticipated Enron&#8217;s demise four years before the company collapsed&#8212;without ever looking at a single number.</p>
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<h5>Followed by&#8230;</h5>
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<li style="margin-top: 10px;"><em>Odd Couples: Extraordinary Differences between the Sexes<br />in the Animal Kingdom</em><br />with Dr. Daphne J. Fairbairn<br /><strong>Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 2 pm </strong></li>
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<h5 style="margin-top: 0;">New Admission Policy and Prices</h5>
<p>Please note there are <em>important policy and pricing changes</em> for this season of lectures at Caltech. Please <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/upcoming-lectures/#Policy-Price-Changes">review these changes now</a>.</p>
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		<title>13-04-17</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Apr 2013 08:59:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[eSkeptic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[con artist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Con Academy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[witchcraft]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skeptic.com/?p=25093</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the small Ugandan village near the capital city of Kampala, a man named Ronald Kapungu had been accused of practicing witchcraft or hiring witch doctors to curse a nearby family. In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, freelance reporter and travel writer, Justin Chapman, describes his experience at the witchcraft ceremony that he witnessed while covering the story with local journalist Luke Kagiri.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #dce6e6; padding: 20px;">
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em> eSkeptic</em>:</p>
<ul class="toc" style="padding-left: 20px;">
<li><a href="#ConAcademy"> <strong>Skepticism 101</strong>: A Faux Commercial for The Con Academy </a></li>
<li><a href="#MonsterTalk"><strong>MonsterTalk</strong>: What&#8217;s Good for the Mongoose&#8230; </a></li>
<li><a href="#feature"> <strong>Feature Article</strong>: Witch Doctors and Con Artists </a></li>
<li><a href="#lectures"> <strong>Our Next Lecture</strong>: Dr. Adam Grant on a Revolutionary Approach to Success</a></li>
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<h4 style="margin: 20px 0 20px 0; font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; color: #434336; font-fmaily: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>The Con Academy Videos</strong><br /><small>An introduction by Dr. Michael Shermer</small></h4>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">THE CON ACADEMY videos are another resource in our arsenal of <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/skepticism-101/" title="Visit the Skeptical Studies Curriculum Resource Center">Skepticism 101</a> for teaching critical thinking and promoting science through the use of humor, wit, and satire. In our first set of videos we will teach people how <strong>con</strong> artists work through various scenarios, as in our first video: a faux commercial for The Con Academy that explains how psychics count on the <em>confirmation bias</em> to <strong>con</strong>vince people that their powers are real when, in fact, they are just remembering the hits and forgetting the misses. We also demonstrate how psychic &#8220;organizations&#8221; and &#8220;companies&#8221; are conning people by taking their money for services that are not real.</p>
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<p><strong>CREDITS</strong>: Special thanks to David Cowan, Daniel Mendez, and Jim Robinson for their support in launching this new series of Skeptic videos.</p>
<p><em>Written and Produced by</em>: Brian Keith Dalton, Pat Linse, Michael Shermer. <em>Featuring</em>: Michael Shermer, Brian Keith Dalton, John Rael, Jen Brown, Matt David, Eduard Pastor, Emery Emery, and Wendy Hughes. <em>Production assistance</em>: Eduard Pastor, Matt David, and John Rael. <em>Shot, Edited, and Directed by</em>: Brian Keith Dalton. <em>Special thanks to</em>: Russell Friedman and everyone at the Grief Recovery Institute in Sherman Oaks, CA. <em>Music by</em>: Videoblocks.com and Final Cut Production music. <em>Shot on</em> Panasonic AF100, Gh2, and Gh3 cameras. <em>The Con Academy is not, in any way, affiliated with The Khan Academy</em>.</p>
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<div style="height: 411px; border: 1px solid #666; border-bottom: 0;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-17/healer-reveals-witchcraft-item.jpg" width="548" height="411" style="border: 0;" alt="The healer reveals a witchcraft item 'found' in the accused man's house to the crowd. It probably came from the pockets of his assistant's padded jacket." />
<p class="caption" style="color: #666;">The healer reveals a witchcraft item &#8220;found&#8221; in the accused man&#8217;s house to the crowd. It probably came from the pockets of his assistant&#8217;s padded jacket.</p>
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<h5 style="font-style: normal; margin-top: 35px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">About this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em></h5>
<p>In the small Ugandan village near the capital city of Kampala, a man named Ronald Kapungu had been accused of practicing witchcraft or hiring witch doctors to curse a nearby family. In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, freelance reporter and travel writer, Justin Chapman, describes his experience at the witchcraft ceremony that he witnessed while covering the story with local journalist Luke Kagiri.</p>
<p><strong>Justin Chapman</strong> is an author, poet, actor, and journalist. At age 19 he was elected to the Altadena Town Council and chaired its Education Committee. He has written for numerous publications, including the <em>Pasadena Weekly</em>, <em>L.A. Weekly</em>, Patch.com, and <em>Berkeley Political Review</em>. He received his degree in Media Studies from University of California, Berkeley.</p>
<p class="ImportantInfo">All photos by Justin Chapman. Used with permission.</p>
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<h4>Witch Doctors and Con Artists<br /><small>A First-Hand Account of Witchcraft in Africa</small></h4>
<p class="Author">by Justin Chapman</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal;"> I</span>&#8217;m a freelance reporter and travel writer. Over the course of three months in 2012 I traveled by myself by buses and trains from Cape Town, South Africa to Mityana, Uganda. One of the things that struck me was the apparent contradiction of the practice of witchcraft, especially in East Africa. As I reached Zambia I started to hear about the history of witchcraft. I was surprised to find out in Uganda that the practice is still very much alive, even among otherwise intelligent people.</p>
<p>The Ugandan constitution allows all kinds of worship, but has a (very weak) provision from 1957 called the &#8220;Witchcraft Act&#8221; setting forth punishments for those who practice it. However, a court later voided the sections about witchcraft for having vague definitions. You are not allowed to threaten someone with witchcraft, but proving that someone has practiced it, let alone succeeded in utilizing evil spirits, is impossible at best.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the villagers are wary of modern hospitals and doctors, and once they are convinced witchcraft is being practiced, the sick will not visit a hospital because they think the doctors will not be able to find, let alone cure, the problem. This really is a tragedy because if someone has malaria, for instance, obviously the hospital is the place to go. But if they believe witchcraft is the source, they won&#8217;t go, leaving themselves open to sickness and death.</p>
<p>While in Uganda I traveled around with a local journalist named Luke Kagiri and helped him cover his various assignments. One day we rode on a boda-boda (motorcycle taxi) about halfway between Mityana and the capital city of Kampala, about an hour&#8217;s ride, for a witchcraft ceremony. The driver turned off the highway onto a walking path that led us deep into the bush to the village where a man named Ronald Kapungu had been accused of practicing witchcraft or hiring witch doctors to curse a nearby family. As proof of Ronald&#8217;s wrongdoing, the afflicted family claimed that a male relative had died, the husband was supposedly acting crazy like he was possessed, and the wife was ill.</p>
<p>Several villagers had attacked Ronald&#8217;s house the week before and he fled the village, hundreds of miles away. Riot police had to come and shoot tear gas into the crowd to disperse them. So the villagers called a &#8220;traditional healer&#8221; to come and use his &#8220;powers&#8221; to confirm or deny whether Ronald had in fact been practicing witchcraft.</p>
<p>When Luke and I arrived, there were about 200 people from the surrounding small villages to witness the ceremony. I was the only mzungu (white person) there. Of course everyone was staring at me, but they knew I was with Luke and that we were filming the ceremony for Bukedde TV, the local news station. This gave us access that the crowd didn&#8217;t have.</p>
<p>Under the Ugandan constitution, large gatherings of people are not allowed without permission from the police and without police presence. Indeed, there were several uniformed officers, who stood in front of the crowd (which was compacted together on a small hill 20 feet from Ronald&#8217;s battered house, people watching among the trees, cows, pigs, and chickens in the bush) while riot police, automatic rifles at the ready, stood at various points in a circle about 40 feet from and around the crowd.</p>
<p>The traditional healer, a well-dressed man in his late 50s wearing an expensive watch (not what you would picture a witchcraft healer would look like or be wearing), had to get clearance from the local police as well as the chiefs of the village before he arrived.</p>
<p>The healer took his time, walking around the square house, tapping at various things with his black walking stick that curved near the top like a handle and continued up another foot (supposedly the source of his &#8220;powers&#8221;), and finally entering the house to look around. He didn&#8217;t bring a bag, but two men came with him and one of them had a thick black rain jacket on with many pockets. The healer exited the house and the three of them took a canister filled with local brew and walked around the perimeter of the house, splashing the alcohol against the outside walls of the house. They did the same thing with a canister of milk, then one of the guys tossed small stones up to hit the tin awning that stretched out beyond the roof.</p>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-17/ceremony-in-doorway.jpg" width="500" height="375" alt="A 'traditional healer' performs a ceremony in the doorway of the house of an accused witch. The walking stick outside the door is the source of his power. " class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">A &#8220;traditional healer&#8221; performs a ceremony in the doorway of the house of an accused witch. The walking stick outside the door is the source of his power.</p>
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<p>The healer then placed a bag of flour and a wooden bowl filled with an unknown substance at the foot of the door. He lit his pipe, smoked slowly, answered his expensive cell phone and talked for a minute or so, looked around like he didn&#8217;t care, and used his stick to mix the substance in the bowl. After smoking for a few minutes, he went back into the house. Luke motioned for me to follow him. We walked into the house in time to see the healer&#8217;s associate, the one wearing the black rain coat, slip a curved, cone-shaped wooden handle with herbs sticking out of the top into a soft, weathered briefcase on the ground.</p>
<p>We went outside and the healer emerged with the bag, which he informed the crowd he suspected contained the witchcraft items.</p>
<p>After another few minutes he opened the bag and pulled out the wooden handle. He held it up to show the crowd (see photo at top of this article), which went wild with excitement, for this was supposed to be the witchcraft item used by Ronald to bewitch the family. I already knew the whole thing was baloney, of course, but when I saw what the healer did, I realized the scam. The man who was wearing the black raincoat had the cone-shaped handle hidden in his jacket pocket the entire time.</p>
<p>Their suspicions confirmed, the villagers began throwing large pieces of wood into a pile in front of the house to make a fire. They brought two chickens over and removed the feathers from their necks, then sliced the heads off right in front of me and threw them into the pile. A guy doused the wood with kerosene and lit the fire. The healer threw the bags in as well as the witchcraft item, which supposedly contained all the evil spirits. People grabbed whatever they could and threw the stuff into the fire. More gas was splashed on, and it became the tallest, hottest bonfire I&#8217;d ever seen. Everyone had to back away about 20 feet because it was so hot.</p>
<div style="width: 510px; margin: 20px auto;"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-17/bonfire-to-destroy-witchcraft-items.jpg" width="500" height="375" alt="As about 200 people watch, gasoline is poured on a bonfire and the alleged witchcraft items are burned to destroy the evil spirits." class="boxShadow" />
<p class="caption">As about 200 people watch, gasoline is poured on a bonfire and the alleged witchcraft items are burned to destroy the evil spirits.</p>
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<p>Then the already elated, besotted crowd marched behind the healer down a path to the victim family&#8217;s home, about 100 yards down the hill. Luke and I ran in front to get pictures and film the single file hikers. When we got there, the healer approached the sick woman and rubbed the curve of his stick around her head, muttered a few words, and gently lifted his hands to the air, as if to say, &#8220;Evil spirits be gone.&#8221;</p>
<p>I followed the healer into the victim family&#8217;s home, which he inspected thoroughly but still with an uninterested attitude. I saw the room where the family members slept, on thin mats on a hard floor.</p>
<p>The crowd was angry. They wanted vengeance. Everyone marched back to Ronald&#8217;s house with the intention of destroying it. The police were there to stop them, and Luke told me, &#8220;If there is violence, stand behind the police, because they will shoot in front of them into the crowd, not behind.&#8221; So we stayed behind the police who stood between the crowd and the house. Ronald&#8217;s father, a very old, frail man on crutches, claimed that his son was innocent. The police told the crowd to disperse. The crowd timidly backed off, but would surely be back later to demolish the house.</p>
<p>The police told Luke and me that they were leaving and that we should leave as well, because if something happened they would not be able to protect us. I wanted to see some mob violence, but it&#8217;s probably better that we got back on the boda-boda and booked it out of there, following the healer who also rode on a boda-boda. I didn&#8217;t think we were in danger but Luke told me that the crowd knew they could be identified on television and so when the police left they could potentially attack us.</p>
<p>The villagers will go looking for Ronald, and if they find him or if he ever returns to the village, he will be killed. Many people die this way. Even if Ronald was practicing witchcraft or had hired a witch doctor to put a curse on the family, so what? This stuff isn&#8217;t real. The only thing he is allegedly guilty of is sending bad vibes. The accused are the victims, not the &#8220;bewitched.&#8221; People practice witchcraft in Africa for various reasons, but usually because they are jealous of someone for having more money, allegedly having an affair, having beautiful children&#8230;anything. And people are killed and their homes destroyed because of it.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the traditional healer is paid between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Ugandan shillings (about $200&#8211;$400 U.S.) for his &#8220;services,&#8221; which is a lot of money for villagers to cough up. He&#8217;s ripping them off, and he also adds to the confusion by spreading rumors about certain people practicing witchcraft.</p>
<p>According to the Ugandan constitution, in order for the police or a traditional healer or anyone to search your home, they must have a search warrant, like in America. At this ceremony, they had no search warrant and yet the healer and others were allowed to enter Ronald&#8217;s home, search it, seize items from it, burn them, probably destroy the house, and later most likely murder him. If Ronald knew the law, which he doesn&#8217;t, he could sue the police, the healer, and others. He could say his name and image were tarnished and be compensated 2,000,000 shillings for that as well as for the destruction of his home and property, such as the bags. The chances that he would win the case are extremely high, because how can anyone prove in court that evil spirits were the cause of the victim family&#8217;s illnesses and death? I told Luke I wanted to help Ronald, to give him the pictures and footage we took of the ceremony so he could use them in court to prove he was not served with a search warrant.</p>
<p>&#8220;Ronald could only use the footage and pictures if we published them in the newspaper or broadcast them on TV,&#8221; Luke told me. &#8220;If we supply him with the raw clips and photos, the villagers would think we were spies trying to help him the whole time, instead of attending the ceremony to write and shoot a legitimate journalism story about it.&#8221;</p>
<p>We would be outcasts in the community, and since Luke lived there and people knew who he was, he couldn&#8217;t do that for Ronald. The fact remains that if these people really want to hold onto this outdated belief system, fine. But why not try a healer <em>and</em> a real doctor in a real hospital? What have they got to lose? They just think it&#8217;s a waste of time, because the real reason for unexplainable things is invisible spirits and powers that can&#8217;t be proved. The fact that Ugandans are mostly Christian doesn&#8217;t dissuade uneducated segments of the population from letting go of their superstitious beliefs regarding witchcraft.</p>
<p>How interesting. How bizarre. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" /></p>
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<h4 style="font-size: 24px; font-style: normal; line-height: 26px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 25px;">Our Next Lecture at Caltech:<br />DR. ADAM GRANT</h4>
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<p>with Dr. Adam Grant<br /><strong>Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 2 pm</strong></p>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">IN THIS LECTURE, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670026557/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0670026557&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">his book</a> on the psychology of human interactions, organizational psychologist (and the youngest tenured professor at the Wharton Business School) argues that as much as hard work, talent and luck, the way we choose to interact with other people defines our success or failure. <em>Give and Take</em> demolishes the &#8220;me-first&#8221; worldview and shows that the best way to get to the top is to focus not on your solo journey but on bringing others with you. Grant reveals how one of America&#8217;s best networkers developed his connections, why a creative genius behind one of the most popular shows in television history toiled for years in anonymity, how a basketball executive responsible for multiple draft busts turned things around, and how we could have anticipated Enron&#8217;s demise four years before the company collapsed&#8212;without ever looking at a single number.</p>
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<h5>Followed by&#8230;</h5>
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<li style="margin-top: 10px;"><em>Odd Couples: Extraordinary Differences between the Sexes<br />in the Animal Kingdom</em><br />with Dr. Daphne J. Fairbairn<br /><strong>Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 2 pm </strong></li>
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<p>Please note there are <em>important policy and pricing changes</em> for this season of lectures at Caltech. Please <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/upcoming-lectures/#Policy-Price-Changes">review these changes now</a>.</p>
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		<title>13-04-10</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Apr 2013 07:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wiliam Bull</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[eSkeptic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belief]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[book review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Church of Fear]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Going Clear]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[life inside Scientology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scientology]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Jim Lippard reviews three books: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307700666/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=0307700666&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood, and the Prison of Belief</em></a> by Lawrence Wright (Alfred A. Knopf, 2013), <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1909269034/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=1909269034&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The&#160;Church of Fear: Inside The Weird World of Scientology</em></a> by John Sweeney (Silvertail Books, 2013), and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062248472/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=0062248472&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Beyond Belief: My Secret Life Inside Scientology and My Harrowing Escape</em></a> by Jenna Miscavige Hill with Lisa Pulitzer (William Morrow, 2013).]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="Introduction" style="background-color: #dce6e6; padding: 20px;">
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em> eSkeptic</em>:</p>
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<li><a href="#Skepticality"><strong>Skepticality Episode 205</strong>: Goin&#8217; Prehistoric </a></li>
<li><a href="#feature"> <strong>Feature Article</strong>: Scientology Exposed </a></li>
<li><a href="#lectures"> <strong>Our Next Lecture</strong>: Dr. Adam Grant on a Revolutionary Approach to Success</a></li>
<li><a href="#TAM2013"> <strong>The Amazing Meeting 2013</strong>: July 11&#8211;14, South Point Casino, Las Vegas</a></li>
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<h5 style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0;">Goin&#8217; Prehistoric<br /><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; font-style: normal; font-size: 10px; color: #555; font-weight: normal;"> SKEPTICALITY EPISODE 205</span></h5>
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<h5 style="font-style: normal; margin-top: 5px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">About this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em></h5>
<p>In this week&#8217;s <em>eSkeptic</em>, Jim Lippard reviews three books: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307700666/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0307700666&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood, and the Prison of Belief</em></a> by Lawrence Wright (Alfred A. Knopf, 2013), <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1909269034/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1909269034&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The&nbsp;Church of Fear: Inside The Weird World of Scientology</em></a> by John Sweeney (Silvertail Books, 2013), and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062248472/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062248472&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Beyond Belief: My Secret Life Inside Scientology and My Harrowing Escape</em></a> by Jenna Miscavige Hill with Lisa Pulitzer (William Morrow, 2013).<br /><a href="#Lippard">Read Jim Lippard&#8217;s bio</a> at the end of this article.</p>
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<h4>Scientology Exposed</h4>
<p class="Author">book reviews by Jim Lippard</p>
<p class="ProseFirstLines"><span style="display: block; float: left; line-height: 63px; font-size: 72px; margin: 0 4px -2px 0; font-style: normal;"> T</span>imes are tough for the Church of Scientology. Since <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol17n01.html"><em>Skeptic</em>&#8217;s Scientology cover issue</a> went to press near the end of 2011, the Church of Scientology has faced increasing media attention on revelations from high-ranking defectors as well as internal criticism over its strategy of continual fundraising to build &#8220;Ideal Orgs&#8221; (or, as some wags have dubbed them, &#8220;Idle Morgues&#8221;). The latter spilled over into public view as the result of an email sent to thousands of Scientologists on December 31, 2011 which argued that this fundraising violates L. Ron Hubbard&#8217;s policies, citing and quoting chapter and verse. The sender was (at the time) a Scientologist in good standing who was well known to members of the Church&#8212;Debbie Cook, former Flag Service Organization captain known as the &#8220;face of the Sea Org&#8221; for her appearances in Sea Org recruiting videos. The Church of Scientology sued her in January, but was embarrassed by her testimony in an open court hearing in February about the abuses she witnessed at Scientology&#8217;s &#8220;Int Base,&#8221; where executives were kept in prison-like conditions in a pair of double-wide trailers known as &#8220;The Hole.&#8221; The case was quickly settled in April, and Cook moved to the Caribbean and then to Mexico.</p>
<p>2013 is shaping up to be even worse for the Church. In just the first six weeks of the year three major critical books have been published and an hour-long critical documentary aired on cable television. On January 7, BBC journalist John Sweeney&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1909269034/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1909269034&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>The Church of Fear: Inside The Weird World of Scientology</em></a>, was published. On January 16, a documentary of Nancy Many&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002UUTGKI/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B002UUTGKI&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>My Billion-Year Contract</em></a>, about her time in the Sea Org including her time in Scientology&#8217;s dirty tricks organization&#8212;the Guardian Office&#8212;aired on the new Investigation Discovery channel. January 17 saw the publication of Lawrence Wright&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307700666/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0307700666&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood, and the Prison of Belief</em></a>, a book that grew out of his February 14, 2011 <em>New Yorker</em> story, &#8220;The Apostate,&#8221; a profile of Oscar-winning film director Paul Haggis&#8217;s noisy departure from Scientology. And last but not least, a memoir from the niece of the head of the Church of Scientology, Jenna Miscavige Hill&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062248472/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062248472&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Beyond Belief: My Secret Life Inside Scientology and My Harrowing Escape</em></a>, was published on February 5.</p>
<p>Timed to distract from the Many documentary and Wright book, the Church of Scientology paid $50,000 for an &#8220;advertorial&#8221; on the website of <em>The Atlantic</em> magazine on January 15. The piece, titled &#8220;David Miscavige Leads Scientology to Milestone Year,&#8221; argued that Scientology is growing like never before, citing the opening of numerous &#8220;Ideal Orgs.&#8221; <em>The Atlantic</em>&#8217;s &#8220;sponsored content&#8221; prompted such a backlash that the article was pulled from the website before the day was over. On February 3, perhaps in an attempt to garner some distracting publicity from Jenna Miscavige Hill&#8217;s book, Scientology purchased television advertising in several local markets during the Super Bowl&#8217;s half time to air an advertisement, titled &#8220;Knowledge,&#8221; which it had already released on YouTube on December 18.</p>
<p>Each of these books recounts a different slice of life experience with Scientology. Sweeney&#8217;s book reports the experience of a critical journalist as Scientology&#8217;s power to intimidate is beginning to decline, Hill&#8217;s book is about growing up as a third-generation Scientologist and family relation of the head of the Church, and Wright&#8217;s book focuses on Scientology as seen by its senior executive clergy and celebrities.</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 15px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307700666/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0307700666&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the hardcover from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-10/Going-Clear-cover.jpg" width="225" height="326" alt="Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood, and the Prison of Belief (book cover)" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307745309/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0307745309&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the paperback from Amazon">Order the paperback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307700666/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0307700666&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the hardcover from Amazon">Order the hardcover</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A9ET54E/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00A9ET54E&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the Kindle Edition">Order the Kindle Edition</a></p>
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<p>Wright&#8217;s book, <em>Going Clear</em>, is a carefully researched, detailed, and entertaining story that follows the life story of Paul Haggis from his youth in London, Ontario where he was first recruited into Scientology, to his successful career in Hollywood as a writer and director, with side trips into the life of L. Ron Hubbard, current head of the church David Miscavige, and other celebrities like Tom Cruise and John Travolta. In the process, Wright explains much of Scientology doctrine and history, often uncovering new facts not reported in previous books.</p>
<p>Wright begins with Haggis&#8217; adoption of Scientology after being handed a copy of L. Ron Hubbard&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/140314446X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=140314446X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Dianetics</em></a> and being told, &#8220;You have a mind. This is the owner&#8217;s manual. Give me two dollars&#8221; (p. 3). Haggis becomes a representative of the typical public (and subsequently celebrity) Scientologist for Wright, who notes in the book&#8217;s introduction that &#8220;Few Scientologists have had a conversion experience&#8212;a sudden, radical reorientation of one&#8217;s life; more common is a gradual, wholehearted acceptance of propositions that might have been regarded as unacceptable or absurd at the outset, as well as the incremental surrender of will on the part of people who have been promised enhanced power and authority&#8221; (pp. xii&#8211;xiii). Haggis moved to Hollywood, became &#8220;Clear&#8221; #5925, and then established himself as a successful writer. Although he recognized that parts of Scientology seemed absurd&#8212;including in particular Scientology&#8217;s origin myth about Xenu the galactic warrior&#8212;Haggis has &#8220;no doubt&#8230;that he had gained some practical benefits from his several years of auditing and that his communication skills had improved&#8221; (p. 17). Because he was immersed in a community where Scientology was prevalent, with his wife, sister, and circle of friends as adherents, he came &#8220;to understand implicitly that those relationships would be jeopardized if he chose to leave the church&#8221; (pp. 17&#8211;18). These become some of the bars of the &#8220;Prison of Belief&#8221; of the book&#8217;s subtitle.</p>
<p>The event that ultimately led to Haggis&#8217; departure from the church was the apparent sponsorship of California&#8217;s Proposition 8 by the Church of Scientology of San Diego. Tommy Davis, then still a spokesman for the church, said that it wasn&#8217;t actually the San Diego church that had adopted a position on the proposition, but &#8220;<em>one guy</em> who somehow got it in his head it would be a neat idea [to] put Church of Scientology San Diego on the list.&#8221; Davis got the church removed from the list (p. 310). Haggis, however, insisted that the Church of Scientology should issue a public statement disclaiming responsibility, while Davis declined, saying that a public statement would simply give undeserved attention to the issue. While Davis thought the issue was resolved since he heard nothing more from Haggis, Haggis began investigating criticisms of Scientology on the Internet. In the process, he came across a YouTube video in which Davis, acting as public spokesman for the church, falsely denied the existence of the practice of &#8220;disconnection&#8221; from family members or friends who are critical of the church. Haggis developed more reasons to leave, culminating in writing and sending a letter of resignation to Davis that used the church&#8217;s stance on homosexuality as the primary reason for his departure. Davis tried to bring Haggis back in to the church, but when Haggis gave permission for former #2 in the church, ex-member Marty Rathbun, to post the resignation letter on his blog, Haggis became a lost cause.</p>
<p>Wright&#8217;s book is an excellent introduction to the Church of Scientology, its history, and its doctrines, with a focus on the celebrity experience from recruitment to disillusion, and on what keeps current celebrity members involved. The odd experiences of Tom Cruise, who drifted away from the church only to be pulled back in, illustrate life at the very top of Scientology. David Miscavige, &#8220;chairman of the board&#8221; (&#8220;COB&#8221;) of the Religious Technology Center, who runs the church, lives a lavish lifestyle which Wright describes in detail, including his eating habits (dinner is a five-course meal, with a choice from two prepared entrees), sleeping habits (he regularly starts his day at noon, and ends at 3 or 4 a.m.), travel habits (he flies by Boeing business jet, accompanied by his hairdresser and chiropractor) and his acquisitions (he collects guns, motorcycles, automobiles, and expensive clothing) (pp. 271&#8211;272). Meanwhile, many Scientology staff work long hours for sub-minimum wage and dine on beans and rice.</p>
<p>The book is another damning critique of the Church of Scientology&#8217;s corruption, deception, and extraction of money from its members to build its &#8220;Super Power&#8221; building in Clearwater and its &#8220;Ideal Orgs.&#8221; Wright estimates that it has $1 billion in liquid assets and 12 million square feet of real estate worldwide, including 26 properties in Hollywood worth $400 million. There&#8217;s a stark discrepancy between Scientology&#8217;s claims and reality, which was presaged by Hubbard&#8217;s tall tales in his youth. While members think that Scientology was the product of scientific research by Hubbard, Wright&#8217;s re-examination of Hubbard&#8217;s life shows, once again, that Hubbard mixed his own tall tales and subjective experience with things he picked up from others&#8212;Korzybski, Parsons, Crowley, the U.S. Navy, and so on&#8212;to create the policies and doctrines of Scientology.</p>
<p>Wright&#8217;s book, though lacking the daring escape stories or depth of reporting on the Lisa McPherson case that are strengths in Janet Reitman&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A7K68UY/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00A7K68UY&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon"><em>Inside Scientology</em></a>, seems to me to more comprehensively describe Scientology doctrine and history than her account. Scientology has responded to his book similar as it did to hers, by denying its accuracy (resulting in numerous humorous footnotes in the book reporting Scientology&#8217;s absurd denials of reports by multiple witnesses). The only error I&#8217;ve seen noted in the book is his mistaken dating of Hubbard&#8217;s &#8220;tomato auditing&#8221; photo to 1968 (instead of 1959 or 1960), an error which is widespread apparently due to <em>Life</em> magazine&#8217;s attribution of the photo to the <em>Evening Standard</em>, January 1, 1968.</p>
<p>Wright closes his book with a comparison to other religions&#8212;Islam, Christianity, Amish and Mennonite communities, Christian Science, and especially Mormonism, a religion whose early history seems to have many parallels with Scientology. As Wright puts it, &#8220;Joseph Smith was plainly a liar&#8221; (p. 355). But such observations are unlikely to get through to the prisoner of belief, as Haggis found when he tried to persuade his friends in Scientology to read material critical of Scientology in the <em>St. Petersburg Times</em> (now the <em>Tampa Bay Times</em>), only to be told by composer Mark Isham that &#8220;it was like reading <em>Mein Kampf</em> if you wanted to know something about the Jewish religion&#8221; (p. 328). If a reputable newspaper criticizes your religion, it must be equivalent to Nazi propaganda and therefore not worth reading. But for those who do read the material, even if they first rationalize it away as the false complaints of unethical apostates, as Scientology encourages its members to believe, they often accumulate personal experiences confirming what they&#8217;ve read, which helps them find their way out. I hope that Wright&#8217;s book will help.</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 15px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1909269034/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1909269034&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the hardcover from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-10/Church-of-Fear-cover.jpg" width="225" height="348" alt="The Church of Fear: Inside The Weird World of Scientology (book cover)" class="boxShadow" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1909269034/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=1909269034&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the paperback from Amazon">Order the paperback</a><br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00AQY300M/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B00AQY300M&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the Kindle Edition">Order the Kindle Edition</a></p>
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<p>When investigative journalist John Sweeney set out to make a segment of the BBC documentary series <em>Panorama</em> about Scientology in 2007, he had some idea of the risks involved, but was unable to prepare sufficiently to avoid famously losing his temper in response to prodding from Church of Scientology spokesman Tommy Davis. The YouTube video of that outburst was picked up by the mass media and seen by millions.</p>
<p>This book, the first of three major books about Scientology published in the first six weeks of 2013, is narrowly focused on a specific set of events in 2007, when Sweeney conducted his investigation and interviews for what became <em>Panorama</em>&#8217;s &#8220;<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/panorama/6651231.stm">Scientology and Me</a>.&#8221; What makes this book remarkable is that it doesn&#8217;t just include Sweeney&#8217;s perspective, it includes a Church of Scientology viewpoint, as revealed from recent leaks of internal documents and interviews with high-level defectors who coordinated the response to Sweeney&#8217;s investigation and who have now been speaking out. They were monitoring his activities, having him followed, and periodically confronting him, sometimes while he was in the middle of interviews with Scientology critics and defectors. The inside information shows how the Church, at a turning point in its history, dealt with a perceived threat.</p>
<p>While Sweeney received much less harassment than investigators of prior decades (notably Paulette Cooper, Joel Sappell and Robert Welkos of the <em>Los Angeles Times</em>, Richard Behar of <em>Time</em> magazine, and Richard Leiby of the <em>Washington Post</em>), it was apparently much more focused attention than recent investigators such as Janet Reitman and Lawrence Wright (so far as we know to date, anyway). Then-church media spokesman Tommy Davis and head of the Office of Special Affairs Mike Rinder were the key players against Sweeney, along with a &#8220;Communicator&#8221; apparently being told what to say by David Miscavige (like a Stanley Milgram &#8220;Cyranoid&#8221;). Though Rinder was nominally the senior, Sweeney perceived him at the time to be of lesser status&#8212;confirmed by the fact that Rinder had only been spending time in &#8220;The Hole,&#8221; a sort of prison for out-of-favor senior executives, but had been released to work against Sweeney. Rinder and Davis have now both left Scientology, though only Rinder is speaking out publicly.</p>
<p>Also noteworthy in Sweeney&#8217;s book is the record he establishes of Scientologists who have reached Operating Thetan III, yet are perfectly willing to lie by issuing false denials of familiarity with the story of the evil Galactic overlord Xenu found in that level of Scientology. Sweeney states: &#8220;A &#8216;religion&#8217; that hides its core belief from the world is not a religion because a true religion must be open about itself to all.&#8221; But this is a tendentious definition of &#8220;true religion&#8221; (Sweeney attributes it to the Charity Commission in the UK) that excludes esoteric and occult traditions, as well as the Druze faith. It is in fact not uncommon for religious traditions to excuse both secrecy and lying to non-members about the secrets.</p>
<p>The book is somewhat marred by a number of errors including repeated misspellings of the names of Kirstie Alley, Kendrick Moxon, and the Kia Sedona minivan. More significant mistakes include an assertion that Hubbard was a friend of Aleister Crowley (they never met, though Hubbard lived with Crowley follower John Parsons in 1945&#8211;46 and borrowed elements of Scientology from Crowley&#8217;s work), and a claim that in 1993 the &#8220;Inland [sic: Internal] Revenue Service reversed its previous position and declared the Church a religion&#8221; (the IRS doesn&#8217;t determine what counts as a religion).</p>
<p>Sweeney&#8217;s book doesn&#8217;t cover the broad ground of books like Lawrence Wright&#8217;s <em>Going Clear</em> and Janet Reitman&#8217;s <em>Inside Scientology</em>, but it is an entertaining and revealing look at the experiences of a journalist investigating Scientology at a turning point in its history.</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 235px; margin: 15px 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062248472/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0062248472&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the hardcover from Amazon"><img src="http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/2013/images/13-04-10/Beyond-Belief-cover.jpg" width="225" height="314" alt="Beyond Belief: My Secret Life Inside Scientology and My Harrowing Escape (book cover)" class="boxShadow" /></a>
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<p>Jenna Miscavige Hill was a third-generation Scientologist. Her maternal grandmother, Janna Blythe, started with Hubbard&#8217;s science fiction in the 1950s, was an advocate of <em>Dianetics</em> by 1957, and joined Scientology in 1969. Blythe and her husband and their nine children all joined the Sea Org on the ship <em>Excalibur</em>, but most returned to being &#8220;public&#8221; Scientologists after only a few months. Jenna&#8217;s mother, Elizabeth or &#8220;Bitty,&#8221; refused to leave the ship even though she was still a minor. On her father&#8217;s side, her grandfather, Ronald Miscavige Sr., also brought his whole family into Scientology when he joined in the 1970s. His two sons, Ron Jr. and David, both joined the Sea Org as teenagers. Jenna&#8217;s parents had been Scientologists for 15 years by the time she was born, though they both left the Sea Org beforehand. But just before she was two, they decided to rejoin the Sea Org, at about the same time her uncle David was taking control of the entire Church of Scientology.</p>
<p><em>Beyond Belief</em> tells Jenna Miscavige Hill&#8217;s story of life growing up not only in Scientology, but in the Sea Org as a close relative of the head of the church. While her name gave her some occasional benefits, her family&#8217;s lifestyle was not like that of her uncle (described in Lawrence Wright&#8217;s book). Her parents&#8217; positions in the Sea Org meant that in her early years she lived in a small two-bedroom apartment with another family, the Rinders. She would go for months at a time without seeing her mother, and would often see her father only once a week. She thought that joining the Sea Org herself held the promise of seeing her parents more often, and she signed her own billion-year contract at the age of 7. But the promise was a false one, and she saw less of them rather than more. Her exposure to the world outside of Scientology was virtually nil, and once she was in the Sea Org, even the life of a public Scientologist became foreign to her.</p>
<p>As a child cadet in the Sea Org, Jenna lived at a Scientology boarding school known as &#8220;The Ranch&#8221; in the California desert, not far from Int Base at Gilman Hot Springs, where her father and uncle lived. Her days would begin at 6:30 a.m. with cleaning, followed by morning muster, roll call, and personal inspections at 7 a.m. This was followed by &#8220;Chinese school,&#8221; where students would repetitively and in unison read aloud L. Ron Hubbard quotations written on sheets of butcher paper. All cadets had assigned work positions in a formal organizational structure with children as commanding officers. Seven-year-old Jenna&#8217;s assigned post was Medical Liaison Officer responsible for treating sick children (p. 55) and providing vitamins to the healthy. While Scientology didn&#8217;t permit the use of medicine for the treatment of pain or fever (&#8220;touch assists&#8221; were prescribed for such ailments), it did allow for MMR vaccinations (p. 57). At 9:15 a.m. was second muster, followed by &#8220;deck work&#8221; or labor intensive projects, which lasted until 12:45 p.m. on weekdays and all day long on Saturdays. Projects included laundry, pool cleaning, weeding, planting trees, digging trenches, and hauling rocks. Hard labor in the &#8220;Heavy MEST [Scientology acronym for matter, energy, space, and time] Work Unit&#8221; was assigned as punishment for underperformers (p. 61). After deck work came lunch and cleanup, followed by academic course work from 1:45 p.m. to 6 p.m. Following Hubbard&#8217;s educational methods, there was no formal instruction, but only self-directed study under the watchful eye of a &#8220;course supervisor.&#8221; Dinner and more cleanup ran from 6&#8211;6:45 p.m., and the study of Scientology until 9 p.m. Hubbard policy applied to all aspects of life, and courses had to be taken and their prescriptions followed for everything&#8212;how to clean a room, how to make a bed, and how to ride a bicycle (p. 80).</p>
<p>While Jenna found this environment unpleasant, she was afraid to complain about it to her parents and instead decided to run away with another unhappy cadet, stealing fresh eggs from a chicken coop that were reserved for her uncle. They were quickly apprehended and assigned to &#8220;lower conditions&#8221; as punishment, which forced them to work their way back into the good graces of their fellow cadets. She notes that this was actually the second time she had stolen her uncle&#8217;s eggs, having previously taken some and put them into a dresser drawer hoping to hatch chicks. When she was caught at that, she was forced to write a letter of confession to David Miscavige. Rather than getting in trouble, he &#8220;wrote&#8230;back and explained that my drawer was probably not warm enough for the eggs, and that I would need an incubator if I wanted to succeed in hatching them&#8221; (pp. 83&#8211;84).</p>
<p>Several of Jenna&#8217;s early experiences with her uncle, described in the book, depict him as a normal, kindly relative, even as she started to accumulate evidence that her parents were hiding something from her. For example, while living with her mother, who was a senior Sea Org executive in Clearwater with a nice apartment to herself, she would occasionally visit her mother&#8217;s office. Her mother told her not to be in the office when her Uncle Dave was there. On one occasion she heard him coming down the hall and tried unsuccessfully to hide, which he subsequently joked about with her (pp. 139&#8211;140). Her father similarly escorted her out of a situation where Miscavige was about to berate some staff over a sound system problem at a Scientology event (p. 141).</p>
<p>After her mother got caught having an affair and was put on the Rehabilitation Project Force (RPF), Jenna started receiving &#8220;sec checks,&#8221; E-meter sessions that were intended to uncover evidence of wrongdoing rather than self-improvement (p. 185). Her brother was also put on the RPF, and ended up leaving the church. In 1997, she saw people protesting the death of Lisa McPherson at the Ft. Harrison Hotel building in downtown Clearwater. Some picket signs made reference to Xenu, the Galactic overlord of OT III, which Scientologists are not permitted to know about until they are properly trained. Sea Org members were no longer permitted to walk between buildings, but instead were shuttled in vans with contact paper over the windows to shield them from seeing the dangerous material (pp. 221&#8211;222). The only error I noted in the book was Hill&#8217;s statement that the Lisa McPherson Trust, which helped organize these protests, had &#8220;a staff of five, four of whom were former Scientologists, the fifth was [funder Bob] Minton&#8221; (p. 220); Jeff Jacobsen and Mark Bunker were two LMT staff members who were never Scientologists.</p>
<p>The book continues with her life through the reconciliation of her parents and their departure from the Church of Scientology, and her decision to stay even though she was still under 18. The church remained suspicious of her loyalties and controlling of her life, which caused further friction when her love life was involved. An assignment to Canberra, Australia with her new husband gave her a level of exposure to the world outside of Scientology and a chance to examine information critical of Scientology online. Ultimately, she departed the church, reunited with her family, and became a co-founder of <a href="http://exscientologykids.org/">exscientologykids.org</a>.</p>
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<p><em>Beyond Belief</em> is one of the better books by an ex-member. While she suffered nothing like the abuses of members who were assigned to the Rehabilitation Project Force (RPF), physically beaten by senior executives, coerced to have abortions, and separated from their spouses, her book is unique in a number of respects. I believe it is the only book by a third-generation Scientologist that describes life as a child of parents in the Sea Org, and certainly is the only book by someone in such a position who is also a relative of the head of the Church of Scientology. Jenna Hill didn&#8217;t advance very far &#8220;up the Bridge,&#8221; during her time in the church&#8212;she didn&#8217;t even become clear, let alone achieve any of the OT levels, and, like most of the general public who has heard of Xenu, she learned about OT III from the animated television series South Park (p. 372). Her lack of progress in Scientology and the occasional preferential treatment she received will likely be used by Scientology as reasons why her book should be disregarded. But the contrary lesson is probably the better one&#8212;her story shows that even members of the head of the Church of Scientology&#8217;s own family get mistreated, which is why David Miscavige&#8217;s brother, his brother&#8217;s family, and his own father have left. <img src="http://www.skeptic.com/images/S-glyph.gif" alt="END" width="12" height="12" /></p>
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<h5 style="margin-bottom: 10px;">About the Author</h5>
<p style="text-indent: 0; font: 10px/18px Verdana, san-serif;"><strong>JIM LIPPARD</strong> is a long-time skeptic who works in the field of information security. He founded the Phoenix Skeptics in 1985, was its first executive director (1985&#8211;1988), and editor of the <em>Arizona Skeptic</em> (1991&#8211;1993). He was the first webmaster for the Skeptics Society (1994&#8211;1997), and president of the Internet Infidels (2003&#8211;2005). He co-founded one of the first Internet skeptical mailing lists with Toby Howard of the Manchester Skeptics in 1987, and the forteana mailing list in the mid-1990s. He occasionally blogs at the Lippard Blog and the Secular Outpost, and is actively skeptical on Twitter, Google+, and Facebook. He has written for <em>Skeptic</em>, the National Center for Science Education, <em>Creation/Evolution</em>, <em>Philo</em>, and <em>Skeptical Briefs</em>, among other periodicals, and contributed to Joe Nickell&#8217;s <em>Psychic Sleuths</em>, Gordon Stein&#8217;s <em>Encyclopedia of the Paranormal</em>, and Ed Babinski&#8217;s <em>Leaving the Fold</em>. He previously wrote about Scientology for <em>Skeptic</em> with Jeff Jacobsen in <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol03n03.html"><strong>vol. 3, no. 3</strong></a> (1995). He has an M.A. in philosophy from the University of Arizona, and is a Ph.D. student in Human and Social Dimensions of Science and Technology at Arizona State University.</p>
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<h5 style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 22px;">Give and Take:<br />A Revolutionary Approach<br />to Success</h5>
<p>with Dr. Adam Grant<br /><strong>Sunday, April 28, 2013 at 2 pm</strong></p>
<p class="InfoFirstLines">IN THIS LECTURE, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670026557/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0670026557&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=skepticcom-20" title="Order the book from Amazon">his book</a> on the psychology of human interactions, organizational psychologist (and the youngest tenured professor at the Wharton Business School) argues that as much as hard work, talent and luck, the way we choose to interact with other people defines our success or failure. <em>Give and Take</em> demolishes the &#8220;me-first&#8221; worldview and shows that the best way to get to the top is to focus not on your solo journey but on bringing others with you. Grant reveals how one of America&#8217;s best networkers developed his connections, why a creative genius behind one of the most popular shows in television history toiled for years in anonymity, how a basketball executive responsible for multiple draft busts turned things around, and how we could have anticipated Enron&#8217;s demise four years before the company collapsed&#8212;without ever looking at a single number.</p>
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<h5>Followed by&#8230;</h5>
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<p>Please note there are <em>important policy and pricing changes</em> for this season of lectures at Caltech. Please <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/upcoming-lectures/#Policy-Price-Changes">review these changes now</a>.</p>
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<p>THIS ANNUAL GATHERING of critical thinkers is an unparalleled opportunity to make like-minded friends, enjoy some of the brightest minds on issues important to us, and leave with tools for sharing a helpful and skeptical message to those who might be hurt by charlatans and unfounded belief.</p>
<p>A major motivation for going to TAM is that skeptics care deeply about people and they know that when people believe in nonsense, they often get hurt. And at TAM 2013 we will explore ways to fight back. This is central to the missions of the James Randi Educational Foundation and The Skeptics Society &#8212; James Randi and Michael Shermer have both been fighting the fakers for decades.</p>
<p><em>eSkeptic</em> readers can use promotional code <strong>SKEPTICMAGAZINE</strong> to receive $25 off of registration. Don&#8217;t miss out on this amazing event! Tickets are selling fast.</p>
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