Skills2paybills

Spread too thinly

2011-10-26T22:23:00.002+01:00

After spending several months attempting to prove that I can make a fortune from spread betting matches on horse racing I have to now face the prospect that my approach needs refining. I made a couple of gs initially but have gradually dribbled that useful bank away and thrown in a downturn on regular racing too for a not so profitable 2011 on the racing front.

I have been multi tabling a bonus at one of the ipoker rooms and have qualified for a free ipad2. Unlike previous forays into ipoker this hasn’t cost me any money either. It would have been extremely profitable if I had stuck to my plan of multi tabling the lower stakes to earn the required rake. However I saw a few juicy tables at the higher limits and a couple of ice cold sessions on these wiped out a chunk of profit at the lower levels. I’m now awaiting arrival of the device and after seeing a friends machine I am very excited.

Finally I must post a cautionary tale - one which will be familiar to those of us who have spent any time around gambling men.

The sobering news cam with the unexpected downfall of a real racing fan. I have been following one of my twitter acquaintances on his blog, and this guy has an encyclopaedic knowledge of racing. There is no doubt he is full time punting too as he was always tweeting about racing every afternoon. His record of selections posted in advance was very impressive and he also set up a couple of syndicates to buy cheap horses that he had spotted as other trainers cast offs which could win under different circumstances. I know a few guys who went into the part ownership and were at least rewarded with a success when the first horse won at Ffos Las.

I checked his blog last Friday to see his opinion on the day’s action and the blog was reported as ‘removed’. The twitter profile was deleted too. I did a web search and it seemed a few others were wondering where he was, unfortunately for different reasons. It seems that although his headline tipping and comments where measured and calculating, the guy had demons and according to some internet scribes has blown his bankroll and also the fees that others had given him for the horse, leaving unpaid bills and syndicate members out of pocket. It looks

I don’t believe it was a deliberate scam – he would have asked for a lot more, and never bought the horse, but even though, it’s a sad tale all round. For those who lost out on the syndicate it is bad enough, but for the lad himself – it looked as though everything has come crashing down. I’ve always said that anyone can lose everything when they are betting and this looks like another example, It wont be the last.

The start of the Flat season

2011-04-01T22:39:00.003+01:00

Frankel - 2000 guineas fav

It has been an interesting couple of months.

I have spent more time betting on horse racing as part of my strategy to move focus from poker to racing. I’ve written elsewhere that racing has always been a passion for me as I’ve always loved the intellectual challenge. Like all hobbies and interests however it can take over your life a bit and I do have to be quite disciplined to keep a distance between betting and finding time for my family and other interests.

The way racing is structured does not lend itself easily to fitting in around regular work/life as races are run either in an afternoon or early evening, daylight permitting, except for some of the all weather racing at two tracks which have floodlights, and race all year round, keeping the industry ticking over.

In that respect poker was slightly better in that you could open a table whenever you had free time in the evening and play for a couple of hours or so, instead of watching TV. But having made the decision to try and find profit from racing I am giving it a serious go and results have been encouraging so far.

Cheltenham was not especially kind to me. I invested a lot of time into the meeting and with hindsight perhaps I should have looked to use that time on other meetings. I will probably just look to take Gold Cup day off next year. The meeting is hyped to such an extent in racing circles that it cannot fail to be a slight disappointment as the second coming of Jesus would struggle to generate as much hysteria in certain circles. This affects the betting in that ante post action has dried up most ricks and although you can still bet close to 100% the prices have found the right level in that the markets have matured to stagnation by the day of the race. You don’t get that at the minor meetings where there is no ante post betting to ensure prices trade to their accurate position. I must admit it is hard to go in on a horse knowing you are being expected to take 6/1 on a horse that was 10/1 last week. With many of the books going non runner no bet it is probably time to do the form studying a bit further out and take a view earlier.

I did manage to stay just in front but this was mainly due to picking up a few winners at the away meetings.

I’ve got a target figure of profit for 2011 in my head, but I don’t want to put this down in print, as if I fail to reach it I don’t want to view it as a disaster, where I choose to spend some time away from racing, walking in the Lake District fells for example, I don’t want to be thinking ‘I have to get back for the evening meeting at Ripon because I need to make £x this week’.

In any betting related activity some things will suit your personality and others less so. Finding your niche is vital, and refining it takes time. The betting landscape is forever changing. Racecourses change configuration. Weight for age is altered. Trainers fortunes go up and down. Races are run differently.

Spread betting by definition does not suit everyone and there is probably a bigger juice on this area than I would like but I have been working on a theory that the market often finds the wrong fav and I like to take the second fav with a start against the jolly and this approach has been fairly lucrative although like all systems it requires fine tuning rather than betting blind.

In addition, some will only focus their attention on the highest class races whilst others prefer the lower class. One guy who blogs at becherbrook.blogspot.com loves 0-95 hcap hurdles and has had great success in this area. His success is based on sheer hard work, ploughing through the videos to spot flaws in the betting market which generally rates the latest run above everything whereas he will try and find why a horse might bounce back to form.

For me, I do not like sprint handicaps although I am slightly warming to them. I like handicap hurdles but chases have become a mystery to me. This is itself and evolution where my position 20 years ago would have been the complete opposite.

Bizarrely I have grown to enjoy claimers and maiden races over 8-10f on the flat, but handicaps are still my bread and butter.

I very rarely back the fav, so nothing has changed there.

I try to make my own mind up, and like to make my own tissue on a race before I get my judgement affected by seeing any betting forecasts.

One problem is that the markets are so heavily influenced by exchange activity that the information received loud and clear during the last 5 minutes before the off is absolutely vital to your horses chances. Horses that trade around say 3 all morning and suddenly go out to 5 in the last few minutes before the off generally have no chance, and this info is denied to most bettors who are not monitoring the exchanges.

There is an entire industry of ‘traders’ who are attempting to pre-empt these moves and lay and back them before the off to ‘green’ out a position. I cant say I consider myself a trader but I do sometimes look at a race and think a horse is too short and lay him with a view to greening up at race time if it does drift, and if it shortens I am quite happy to let it ride rather than getting out with a loss as it will be my judgement that it is not going to win.

I am employing a slightly conservative approach to bet sizing and I think I will let the purse strings be released slightly, probably not on the spread bets which are quite high already in relation to the back and lay selections.

It’s not quite the culture shock it used to be when you moved from National Hunt to Flat as we have flat racing all year round, but I think the flat turf does require a shift in mindset as the top flat yards either don’t bother with the artificial surfaces or just dip into it with a couple of their lesser lights.

For those looking for tips, I wont be posting those but I may give a few boxing previews with several good bouts coming up in April and May.

I will leave you with a few wise words – I didn’t write them but I can plagiarise with the best

‘Successful betting on sport, particularly horses are a marriage of science, art, and labour. Namely graft, analysis and inspiration. Few ever have it’

Good luck and stay in action

The Silver Fox

the future's bright, the future's racing!

2011-01-20T22:16:00.003Z

is poker going the way of 'dead man's hand?

In the UK it has been topical to look for ways of reducing revenue leaks - to use the new governmentÆs parlance, 'conduct a comprehensive spending review'.

Accordingly after the bureaucrats had their go I elected to do my own CSR, in order to look closely at my betting activities.

I split my review into Poker including related bonuses & rakeback, Sports betting & sports bonuses. This is slightly complicated as you can't accrue Poker bonuses and rake back without playing poker, but you can accrue sports bonuses without risking any money betting (if you do it right). Of course you can also bet straight on sport. So there are 4 areas of potential income, Poker play, Poker bonuses and rakeback, Sports bets, and Sports bonuses. But all poker activity is related.

Over the last two years, bonuses of any kind have been tough to find, although occasional promotions are obviously still around & well worth keeping an eye on.

Looking back to what seems like ancient history (2006-2008) sports bonuses were the easiest and biggest earner, but sadly have become less so as books have reined in promotions, or books have been burned.

Poker had provided a decent if inconsistent income stream but bonuses have been drastically scaled back and in 2010 the games had tightened up to such an extent that my edge had substantially diminished to the point at which I was playing with guys of an equal ability which is -EV when you take into account the rake, as you are effectively pushing the chips back and forth across the table and the site whittles away everyone's 'roll and you all lose.

I did Google a few regular opponents as some of them use the same ID on rakeback promotions and forums and I found I was playing against some guys who claim to be professionals. Now I think I can play a bit, but clearly these guys are serious players. Even if they are not in the elite league they are clearly not ideal opponents and every site I look at the players are dominated by these types. To be honest I still enjoy poker but don't have the desire to put the time in to study the game in order to get my skill level up to a place where I have an edge these opponents.

I guess I had been in denial, but the cold hard facts staring me in the face were clear. I had reached a tipping point where poker was actually in danger of becoming a money drain.

In June I went on a racing trip to Newcastle, and spent some time speaking with regulars about the state of the betting industry. I enjoyed the time talking horses and betting & was reminded about the betfair racing markets. I made a simple calculation that £10 per race profit would yield £36000 tax free per year. This is taking 18 races a day, 20 days a month, and ten months a year.

Anyway that sounded an interesting experiment, so I took a few days here and there, and I found that I couldn't find an initial trading strategy that would generate an easy no risk profit every race but I did enjoy myself, and found that I could still read a race. I also managed to find an edge in the spread firms match bets which has generated an initial profit, which I hope to build on in 2011.

Going forward I plan further research in the area of 'day trading' after reading a few blogs of guys generating life changing sums it certainly warrants attention, but I plane to mix this with traditional horse race betting, both backing, laying, laying off in running, spread match bets.

It promises to be an interesting year. I have an invitation to go away for the Cheltenham festival for a friends birthday but I'm not sure whether I will be able to make that or if it will be June before I get to go on another racing trip, possibly to Newcastle again.

Stay in action

completing the set

2010-11-22T22:48:00.004Z

the famous long run in at Cartmel - my first course

Football has its club of 92 to signify the fans who’ve visited all the active league grounds. The corresponding challenge in racing is to complete all the racecourses.

I first went racing in the 1980s. My first racecourse visit was to Cartmel on a social family trip. A friend of my fathers had been a professional sportsman and followed racing, mainly from the armchair and betting shop, but sometimes from Haydock and other venues within an hours drive of the North West of England.

Looking back, he was just an everyday punter, maybe a little better than the average in that he always ruled the favourite out of every race, so at least he was trying to engineer a thought process to extract a better EV on a race. The problem was he would often digress from a single bet to extravagant forecast bets, and he would sometimes have a decent priced winner and not get any return because his other selection had not finished in the runners up spot.

That day at Cartmel I never put a bet on. I was under age but that wouldn’t have been a problem then as I looked old enough. I just didn’t really understand it, and I didn’t have much cash, and didn’t want to lose what little I had. So I just watched and I must have had some latent interest activated because I began to watch racing on TV and look at the racing pages of the papers. I also asked my dad’s friend a few things about racing, and when I started college a friend of mine also got interested in it and we both learned off each other from that point on.

We went on a racing trip in the summer, visiting Windsor, Sandown & Ascot (King George VI), and followed up the next week at Glorious Goodwood. Not a bad start.

We were hooked.

After we got cars, we both vowed to complete all the racecourses of the UK. (Excluding Northern Ireland). This was never formally agreed, but as tracks in Ulster race under Irish rules, if you include them you’d have to add every course in the Republic of Ireland. And if you are going outside the UK where would it stop?

Anyway, the quest was to do all the courses that have their daily cards in the British papers, and there were 59 of them back then. (60 if you count the Newmarket July and Rowley as separate (I don’t, but I’ve been to both anyway). So there were 59, and I quickly rattled off 25 or so that were within a days driving distance, plus we had done a few of the major courses from the trip when we were kids.

We had Cartmel, Haydock, Aintree (Liverpool as it was called then), Carlisle, Chester, York, Ripon, Wetherby Thirsk, Pontefract, Beverley, Catterick, Doncaster (why does Yorkshire have so many courses?), Bangor, Ludlow, Hereford, Worcester, Wolverhampton, Uttoxeter, plus Windsor, Ascot, Sandown and Goodwood.

Then things started to get tougher.

When I had a job that involved a bit of travelling I managed to combine a work trip with a social visit to a few tracks such as Huntingdon, Nottingham, Newmarket, Southwell and Hamilton. I also took my girlfriend with me for weekends that would enjoy a sneaky trip to the track, and luckily she began to enjoy the trips. So we added Ayr, Fakenham (good catch!), Kempton, Market Rasen, Kelso, Hexham, Leicester, Chepstow, Stratford, Newbury, Taunton, Musselburgh (or was it still Edinburgh then?), Redcar, Sedgefield and Newcastle. I also joined Cheltenham as a member, and visited Newmarket. My friend had a job in Brighton so a trip there added that gem, and he had a 12^th share in a 2yo with Peter Harris and I added Epsom on an evening meeting.

But the rate of progress in the last few years has been painfully slow, perhaps one a year, or even every other year. I got Taunton in 2003, Hamilton in 2005, and no new ones since then.

All told that makes 47 courses, so I got within 12 of the finish line. But then a strange thing happened. They opened a new course at Great Leighs in Essex. Could they have got further away from me? Probably not. Then they opened another in deepest Wales, by the strange name of Ffos Las. Suddenly there were 61 courses, and I was further away than I had been since 2002.

Then I was 14 away from completion. Then Great Leighs ran into financial difficulties and is now closed, perhaps never to reopen. So we currently have 60 active courses, and I have 13 to visit.

They are, in alphabetical order.

Bath

Exeter

Ffos Las

Folkestone

Fontwell

Lingfield

Newton Abbott

Perth

Plumpton

Salisbury

Towcester

Wincanton

Yarmouth

At my current rate of progress, 47 tracks in 25 years, (1.8 per year) I should make it in another 7 years.

However if I carry on at the same rate of progress since 2000 (3 new courses) it will take me another 43 years!

Of those that I have yet to visit, I was within 10 miles of Wincanton on a very cold frosty day where racing was doubtful. I was full of a cold and didn’t go. It passed the inspection. I have been to Fontwell, but not when racing was on, and similarly have driven past Plumpton.

Of all the courses that are still to be visited the only one I don’t fancy is Folkestone.

To be honest, it could be a long time before I make much progress, but when my children are older I’ll hopefully knock off the remaining tracks.

Last year Bob Champion completed the 60 tracks in 60 days as a fund raising challenge. I've just slipped a little from that pace.

Still, my dream is to sponsor a race at the last course, with a box at the track! But which one will it be? Who knows?

They say you’ve never failed until you give up trying.

Stay in action.

racing update

2010-11-17T23:31:00.002Z

I've been spending a lot of time backing on racing and this period has spanned the end of the turf flat season, and the start of the jumps season proper.
It is traditionally a tough time for backers, with the flat races being run on softening ground, and many horses losing their form after a hard season.
Conversely the NH form is yet to settle down as the leading horses re-appear after the summer break.
So, a crazy time to get invloved with racing then?
well perhaps. On the other hand, if you can survive in these tricky waters then the traditional better times should be easy?
In what is a statistically insignificant sample, I have managed to keep ahead, but it has been a mixed bag of results.
On the exchanges it has been a steady downhill run, which I still need to analyse, but I think the culprit has been too many impulse bets.
Conversely, on the spreads where I am giving each bet very serious consideration I am doing well.
If you take a match bet over the jumps on heavy ground, you know there is every chance that the bet is going to be settled +/- the maximum of 15 lengths times your stake.
So if you are betting £20 a length then you are looking at £300 plus or minus (less the spreads of course).
In many ways this is the point of a match bet though, you want to make up a maximum if you bust the other horse.
This is what I am looking at. There is no point short heading the rival for a 0.1 make up, as you could end up predicting the right order but losing money if the race was a 'pick-em' affair.
I always look for weakness in a rival, which is exactly what I suspect the price setters try to avoid. they want two rivals who are closely matched, and like it if they have run against each other before, which gives them some expectation of good two way trade.
Anyway, the results are pretty decent, but as always in this game, there is plenty of room for improvement.

My general thoughts on racing recently.

Paul Nicholls is going to struggle to maintain his supremacy over Nicky henderson. Nicholls has the established stars but his next generation doesn't seem to be ready to pick up where Kauto, Denman and Master Minded etc have been conquering.
i think this may be the last season for all those three by the way.
Nicholls will badly miss Ruby Walsh - the rock on which his success has been built.
I don't fancy Kauto Star without him. i think the best horse of the last 20 years has possibly won his last race.
I was glad Paul hanagan won the flat jockeys title. He deserved it.
Despite Richard Hughes getting the backing of some powerful southern yards, he couldnt catch Hanagan who was struggling for firepower as the Ryan and Fahey yards wound down.

Good luck if you are betting this weekend.

Silver Fox

Silver Fox on Twitter - What next?

2010-10-21T23:17:00.003+01:00

As mentioned in my last post I've been spending more time betting on racing these last few weeks.
In fact I have taken the decision to leave poker alone and concentrate exclusively on racing for a while to continue seeing if it is possible to carve out a living from betting on UK racing.

In fact, I should rephrase that last sentence. I know it is possible because people are doing this. What I am developing is a workable strategy of making a living for me on UK racing.
I know some are purely backing market moves or trading, using various software such as BetAngel, and there is clearly some sort of angle there as long as you know what you are doing. Equally there is in-running trading.
Something I am loath to try on the flat as the technology delays are too draconian to overcome on a domestic connection. Over jumps there is probably a way of applying judgement to take a position in the early stages of a race.
Nevertheless, my main view at the moment is to take positions pre-race, (both back and lay) using my own form study and then look to lock in profit on the in running markets if horses shorten up. For example with Roderic O Connor, in the Dewhurst, backing at 48 pre race, laying off at 10 in running to guarantee a profit whatever the outcome. I know when you lay off in running you often end up giving back profit on your winners and losing the full stake on losers but it doesn't always work that way. I have made as much from long priced horses (who have all lost with one exception) who traded shorter in running as backing short priced favs to win in traditional win only action.
I have also been dabbling in the match bets on the spreads. These are often a case of spot the duffer, as you try and find which horse has a weakness, and might give you a maximum make up.
Slightly surprisingly I have also found that I am enjoying receiving racing tweets from racing fans and professionals on Twitter such as jockey James Millman, Roger Charlton, Eddie Fremantle etc.
On thing I did not enjoy was getting my stakes cut back when I found a middle around 7 on an NFL quarter. I asked for £200 on the wager and was offered my bet to the princely sum of £4. And the bookies wonder why punters bet on the exchanges.
Finally, apologies to those who followed my advice on Behkabad for the Arc. The horse didnt get the best of runs at the crucial stage but lets be honest, the winner came from an even worse position , and my selection wasnt exactly flying when he found daylight so it must be considered a disappointment. If he turns up at the Breeders Cup I would take a look as i still think he has more to offer but Churchill Downs is probably not going to offer the optimum conditions for him to show his best form.
I'll try and get some Breeders cup thoughts on the blog before the big weekend of 5/6 November.

Stay in action.

2010-09-29T09:18:00.002+01:00

I have been experimenting with more horse racing activity over the last few months. I have been spending more time studying form and trying to get my head around a way of working an advantage from the betting exchange model. Although people say that the volumes have petered out over the last year or so, each race is trading at least half a million and if I could help myself to say, £10 a race on average this could equate to £180 a day or £900 on a 5 day week tax free. And if you can be a proven winner there is really no limit to what could be achieved. Easy words to write, much harder to do in practice of course.

I’m not so up to speed with the form so my initial forays have been very much ‘getting back on the horse’ no pun intended - but I am already getting into the speed of how the exchange market is operating. There is one uncanny thing which occurs a few times every day and that is the ‘late drift’ where horses are moving out in the market within the last 5 minutes before the off. As an example you might have an animal trading between 5 and 6 all day and then in the last five minutes they go out to 12, and invariably they run a stinker.

My understanding of racing and betting is second to none. I know that sounds an outlandish boast but I have confidence in my ability to smell a bad price and a bad fav. Of course, it is one thing having the skill but another one to have the information to apply those skills, and racing that means a detailed knowledge of trainers and horses, and also gaining an intuitive understanding of the betting market signals and the story they are telling. This is the stuff that needs to be worked on. The instincts are all in working order and I will be looking to add the strategies that work best for me to convert this into profit.

At the moment I am working on a back n lay strategy, and also looking at the spread firms match bets. Its too early to draw any firm conclusions but initial results have been positive.

looking ahead to this weekend I'll be in Monaco. I was hoping to be watching Carl Froch square off against Arthur Abraham but the fight is off due to an injury to Froch. I'm going anyway and will hope to catch some of the Longchamp card while I am there. I strongly fancy Behkabad to be another Aga Khan winner of the race, the only concern would be a very wide draw. Planteur would be my forecast selection.

Good luck with your bets

world cup post script and Open thoughts

2010-07-13T23:58:00.000+01:00

Most people seem to agree that the world cup was disappointing in terms of the spectacle but lets look at the betting angles.

The winners Spain were the pre tournament favs and survived a scare when they lost their opening match. Regular readers will know that I backed 2nd favs Brazil, who never looked in trouble as they cruised through their group and first knockout match.

At half time in their QF game with the Netherlands they were 1-0 up and coasting. I was watching this game and Brazil were favs for the tournament at this stage with the dutch trading at around 35 on Betfair. With a semi-final against Uruguay to come, I neglected to take the insurance of greening out as I couldn’t see the dutch scoring a goal in a million minutes never mind 45, but a freak goal conceded plus a scrappy one from a corner meant the Dutch saw off the Samba kings, and left me sweating on a concession from the bookies Stan James to recover my stake as a free bet.

Fortunately the Spanish did the business in what was a dire final ruined by the Dutch attempts to stifle and spoil which almost worked.

Apart from that I only had a minimal involvement with an interest in a few games, in running which led to a small profit.

I will now have to scalp the freeplay and hopefully will recover 80% of it.

The Open championship dominates betting this week and this type of event is a minefield for punters but after getting involved in a friendly golf tipping event this year I feel I know all the players so may have an interest. I think the fav Woods is terrible value at around 5 to 1 given he has been all over the place with his driving. Similarly Big Phil Mickelson has always struggled in the Open due to his inability to keep it on the short stuff. Whilst the rough is not the problem the pot bunkers will be a factor for wayward drives and it is inconceivable that Woods could repeat his feat from 2005 where he had the ball on a string and never touched a grain of sand all week.

At first glance it has hard to fancy Westwood who has been struggling with injury, as has Casey. Equally Poulter seems to have gone off the boil and conversely perhaps Justin Rose has peaked for the season after winning on the US tour.

I will probably be looking to the outsiders for a big upset with a view to greening out if any of them are in contention.

Newcastle Trip Report

2010-07-05T23:01:00.005+01:00

Overturn (far side) in the famous Peter Harris silks in 2009

deauville flyer at york

It was good to finally get out and get stuck into the action over three days last weekend.

Three of my friends made the journey up to Cumbria and we had a bit of a lark around Penrith on the Thursday. Having said that we still managed to find 3 fancied horses which were put into an treble including Seta, Lady Eclair and a Roger Charlton trained 3 year old Home Advantage. The first two won with a bit in hand at around even money but the last one looked well cooked in the short straight at Warwick but Drowne didnt give up and managed to get it up in the shadow of the post for a head win to bring home the treble.

Not a bad way to start the weekend. I also backed Seta seperatley and althoguh I gave a bit back I managed to finish well up on Day 1. I Had tried to back Lady Éclair separately using the web on my phone but unfortunately I couldn’t get the bet struck until they were off. This cost me a good payout and wasn’t the only time that technology snafus occurred this weekend.

Landing the treble caused the bettign shop tills emptied and the cashier had to go round emptying the roulette machines to pay out, a not uncommon occurrence given that betting shop tills probably hold significantly less than most supermarkets despite being mainly cash businesses. Even so, it certainly led to a good feeling having cleaned the bookies out.

Day 2 started with a drive over to Newcastle. I did the driving and we went the 'as the crow flies' route through Alston. I wouldnt go that way again, too many hairpin bends and hills, but we got there in the end. As I was driving there was no time to study form and so I was well behind the other guys in getting up to speed with the races.

We also had to find the accommodation and also hook up with two others who were making their own way there from separate starting points.

This involved a detour to Chester Le Street and further shenanigans in navigating our way onto the other side of the carriageway as our hotel was at the Services.

All this travelling meant form study was severely curtailed and when The Mask proposed a 4 horse acca I was not convinced about the first horse but agreed with the other three. I'm not a big fan of claiming races, and within that genre, claiming sprints would be about as low as you could possibly go. Having said that, the opposition to his selection was pitiful there being only two possible other winners and both of them had their quirks. I left it alone and we didn't get the acca on either. The afternoon two won (the other was James Fanshawe's Mac's Power, and you guessed it the other two at the evening meeting did.(That'll Do Nicely and Desert x of Swinburn's in the away meeting at Chester. Both of whom won easily despite the latter being only second favourite after support came in for one of Gerald Butler's - an odds on maiden in a handicap.

The evening meeting was at Newcastle a decent course if not spectacular - I was there in 1997 for the Plate meeting, but the only thing I can remember is not backing any winners and it raining all day. It was also the day the British Lions won in South Africa and the second Evander Holyfield v Mike Tyson fight took place.

The weather this time couldn’t have been a greater contrast as the sun shone all weekend.

As previously mentioned the meeting got off to a flyer with That'll do nicely obliging at generous looking 9/4 after trading around 7/4 for much of the day. Things didn't continue in great vein though at Newcastle as the winners proved hard to come by . The Mask was unlucky with 2 further short headed seconds in races on the straight course. I hardly had a shout as many of mine ran down the filed but I had a treble with Desert x at Chester which went in easily and the last leg was an odds-on fave in a 6 runner straight 7f handicap. This animal had finished placed in the higher class Brittannia Handicap at Royal Ascot and turned out again here a week later expected to go in off the same mark here.

Despite being backed from 4/5 to 4/6 we knew our fate as Royston French couldn’t get the beast out on terms and the horse was being bustled along in 3^rd from an early stage. Like many of Johnstone's horses they keep up a strong gallop but they don't quicken up instantly and this horse never looked like getting on terms with the winner who made all.

I didn't get heavily involved in the later races and kept the powder dry for Saturday.

On Saturday, The Mask was going big on Deauville Flyer in the Northumberland Plate. This horse was given a big build up by his trainer Tim Easterby in the lead up to the race, and had been backed from 10s at the start of the week down to 4 to 1 by the morning of the race. I respected his opinion and gave the horse a serious chance but when you have missed the price it goes against the grain to get involved at the short odds. There is an old saying in racing that sums up this situation ‘If you haven’t been to the wedding, don’t go to the funeral’.

Looking back at the first two races, there was a tough start to the card with a couple of my least favoured races, sprints – and I should have followed my own rules and left well alone. My two horses were so far back it looked like they had been in a jumps race.

I managed to back a winner at Newmarket in a listed 12f race with Dickie Hills doing the steering for Michael Jarvis. Money came for this horse as Luca Cumani’s horse drifted and I got on at 11/4.

In the Plate I went for Desert Sea. Although outside the ideal age range this animal had some very good form on the fringe of listed class and had been 6^th in the Chester Cup last time first time out despite not getting the run of the race.

At 16/1 he looked a decent each way bet. My gripe against the fav was that he hadn’t really been in this class before whereas others had run well in class 1 handicaps. I’m not saying that a horse can’t make the transition from a 0-90 to a top class handicap but you have to the odds if you are going to back them.

On course they had shortened the fav up even farther to around 3s. Once they were off, Eddie Ahern rode a great race on a horse who had drifted in the betting after getting the worst of the draw on the wide outside. Ahern managed to cut across and grab the lead, and from that point on he dictated the pace and never saw another horse. My horse came out of the pack but never looked liked getting to the winner and after chasing him about 1f out he lost 2^nd near the line finishing 3^rd. The fav was a never dangerous 5^th but wasn’t given the most positive of rides and could still be dangerous in these staying handicaps possibly with a touch more cut in the ground.

In the next race I had another each way interest in Horatio Carter who had won the race last year, then been in the wilderness but had a prep run a few weeks ago and back on this course I figured everything was in place for a big run.

I also wanted to oppose the fav Camerooney who had won a lower class race at Carlisle on Wednesday but had a penalty here and although he was in rude health I didn’t fancy him to follow up and reckoned he would flop badly so I got on Betfair on my phone to lay him, but after getting to the bet screen I hit the lay key at 1.5 for a place and got the egg timer for about 5 mins, by which time the race had been run and the fav had won, mine was second. I finally got the phone unfrozen and guess what, it hadn’t been matched. The result in technical snafus was now 1-1.

I also got a winner over at Windsor with The Fonz who just scraped home in a tight finish, then back to Newcastle and again, as is often the case on the busy Saturday meetings we had another short priced fav which I took on with an ex Noseda horse, The Galloping Shoe and this 4yo travelled like a dream through the race, despite not getting a run up the inside he had time to switch to the outside an cruise past the field for an easy 2 length success. This one came in at 9/1 and I would fancy it to follow up in similar company again.

In the last it looked a poor contest but I played up a little on the Richard Fahey runner in a 6 horse handicap and this horse didn’t look too keen to pass the runner up but finally got the message in the last furlong under a power packed drive from Paul Hanagan to get up in the last 100 yards for a neck win and a great end to the day.

I was keen to play some poker at Aspers in Newcastle but sadly with the world cup on this didn’t come off but maybe next time.

The trip was certainly a success and now we know the set up of the city we could make it work even better if we got some digs in a better spot.

world cup action

2010-06-15T23:43:00.002+01:00

I would offer long odds on that most fans would like to see the back of those ghastly vuvuzelas or whatever they are called. the whole event is giving me a headache listening to that racket non-stop.
Anyway,I’ve no great opinions on the outright and I’m not too up to speed with all the international form but there are some constants with World Cups, and one is that class will tell.

I think the quality teams are Spain and Brazil and I have put a decent bet on Brazil as I think they have the greater experience and proven form to get the job done.

I have backed them with Stan James who offer a money back if Spain win the event. Its actually a free bet so its like giving back 85% of your stake if you want to scalp it.

I also took advantage of an offer from blue square in the form of a new account bonus, one of the few I haven’t done already.

Like a lot of firms they are staggering the £66 bonus across a few bets but it should still work out at £50 or so.

I had a decent bet on canford cliffs today. I can't believe he was around evens last week and nearly 3/1 today. i did give some back trying to play up on Henderson's horse in the staying handicap later but was well in front after the St james palace stakes on what was an excellent start for punters.

Tomorrow looks very tricky though. The Royal Hunt cup can be a good betting race, Tryst has a little appeal as the ground ofte favours those near either of the rails.

stay in acton.

Harry Findlay hard done by

2010-06-15T23:17:00.003+01:00

findlay in happier mood

I’ve never been a big fan of Harry Findlay. Maybe I am a tad jealous because I’ve never had the balls to bet like he does but his public persona grates on me whereas someone like Mark Winstanley makes me laugh.

Having said that, I think Findlay has been treated very badly by the BHA over the case of backing against his own horse.

If you missed it, Harry Findlay has been ‘warned off’ for 6 months for laying his own horse on two occasions.

Surely the offence of laying a horse is there to stop the practice of owners profiting from their horse losing, using the inside information they possess.

When an owner has laid off as a way of locking in a profit from a ‘back’ bet that is a different thing entirely than going out to lay an animal with the sole intention of seeing it beaten while the remainder of the population thinks it is trying to win.

If the BHA accept that Findlay didn’t stand to profit from the lay bets, and co-operated fully with the investigation then where exactly is the offence?

I would guess that the world of Harry Findlay’s betting is very much an opaque one, similar to that of vegas poker pros where people are often swapping action and making bets on behalf of others. I believe Findlay's account was not in his own name which is somewhat bizarre, and equally the horses don't run in his name either.

Even stranger, Findlay revealed in a letter to the Racing Post that he had permission from the BHA to lay other horses in the stables in which he has his own string based! This staggering admission seems too crazy to be anything other than true, but and clearly something has gone wrong in the Special Relationship between the BHA, Betfair and Mr Findlay!

cheltenham report

2010-03-22T21:50:00.004Z

It was the Cheltenham festival last week, and another incredibly one sided beating was dished out to favourite backers.

Going into the meeting there were four very hot favourites.

Last year there were five, all around even money - Binocular, Master Minded, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto Star, and Voy Por Ustedes. Two won and three lost, which continued the trend of horses under 2/1 in the market winning far less than their share, and a blanket policy of opposing all these hotpots has to be part of a punters strategy.

This year, each day featured an odds-on fav. We had Dunguib in the opening novice hurdle, day 2 saw Master Minded go for three championships on the spin, and day 4 had Big Bucks as the hottest fav of the meeting in the world hurdle. Finally Kauto Star was odds-on for the Gold Cup after winning 2 and finishing second in the last three renewals.

I'm not going to go in for a lot of after timing and outline the reasons why they were all flawed bets. It is enough to say that three of the four were beaten, and two of these weren't even placed.

It seems that punters are like goldfish - they never learn from their mistakes and despite all the decent material written about betting the gamblers instinct shines through all the time and punters keep lumping on bad value favourites and always will.

Look at the example of Punchestowns. This was a very smart hurdler but going over fences is another world, and in his two chases he beat a small field in a low grade event, then he very nearly fell at Sandown before rallying to win a G2 at Sandown. With the bad mistake it was a decent win, but with jumping clearly an issue the horse has a long way to go and would be going to Cheltenham with an experience disadvantage as no winner of this event had run in less than 3 novice chases this century. As if that wasn't bad enough he had an injury scare last week and was rated doubtful by his trainer. So, a big drifter then? Not at all, punters backed him like he was a cert, down to 2/1 and after a sloppy round of jumping he finished out of the frame.

Anyway, how did I do?

Well I laid a few favs and all my lays were successful then I had a few bets in the handicaps where I normally do well, and I struck out badly. I should have stuck to laying.

On day two, I had a decent bet on Rite of Passage but he wasn't good enough but I recovered my stake with an each way part of the bet.

Then, I had my festival defining moment when I had a decent bet on Big Zeb to win the champion chase. I figured I would give this horse another chance after reading Nick Mordin again. The clincher was the 'freefall' offer from VC as Big Zeb fell in this race last year when going like a winner, and Sportingbet and VC were offering money back on any fallers. In the event I had little to worry about as Big Zeb jumped beautifully and showed he is the best 2m chaser around when he is right, although clearly he needs to be fresh and something was not right Sandown when he ran badly at Sandown. As soon as he jumped one fence here you could see he was a different horse. I also backed him at 9/2 without the fav so it was a double payout.

Apart from that I gave some back with long shots on Weds, and on Thursday I had little success. My two biggest bets were Daves Dream and Tranquil Sea and both ran stinkers. I had second to Big Bucks with Time for Rupert at 20/1 and From Dawn til Dusk was placed at 30/1 (backed at 2.4 in running). I think the last named would have won but for clouting the second last, and at least I had him for a place and laid a bit back at 4 in running. But I didn’t hit the winners enclosure.

On Friday it looked very tough and so it proved. I couldn't find an angle at all on several races so I hardly played at all. I had a small bet on the gold cup winner at 9/1, which I enjoyed but apart from that I lost on Nicky Henderson's horse in the last which made a bad mistake when travelling well (I think the ground had gone against him though), and I gave money back betting at the away meetings at Fakenham, Wolverhampton and Lingfield.

Any festival where you end up in front is a good one, and I will be cashing out my winnings for an iphone I think.

I had a go with one the other day. To think I could have sat in the pub and got the latest odds from betfair - that will be great not to mention all the other amazing things it can do. It isn't something essential but I don't really want to lag behind on the technology front and I can call my new phone 'the big zeb'.

On Friday, the rain really got into the ground, and the runners were really tiring. I don't know if this contributed to some of the upsets - after all they were happening all week anyway - but it certainly made for some tough finishes. The Triumph Hurdle that started the day was probably one of the most extraordinary races ever seen at the festival as the outsider Berazin kicked 30 lengths clear at the top of the hill but wandered on the run to the last before getting collared by Barry Geraghty in an amazing race. I wonder what odds the runner up traded at in-running?

Jets ride the rollercoaster

2010-01-20T22:54:00.003Z

I backed the NY jets last week against the Bengals as I thought they should have been favourites and I was surprised to see them getting start against a club they had beaten 37-0 the week before. I know that was against a weakened team but it doesn't half build momentum and I expected another win, and the Jets prevailed 24-14.

I must admit I wasn't expecting the Pats to get blown away at home by the Ravens but New England has looked a team in decline this season. I did expect them to progress here though before going out in a road game as their home form had been very good.

I am at a bit of a crossroads in my poker career as I have cashed out a good chunk and am looking for a new site where I can find soft limit games running. Over on the Merge network it seems that after two years of good games the sharks have cleaned the waters of fish. I have played a few games against some of the regulars and ending up playing a heads up match with a regular winning player. Not a +EV decision but I was hoping it would get a game going with some weaker players arriving but they never showed and I dropped a couple of hundred. I ran my opponent through a search engine and discovered he has the highest number of VIP points on the skin, and is a pro who has played at the WSOP. Food for thought.

It is interesting to speculate over opponents you see playing several tables every day but here it was spelt out in black and white that the guy is a full time professional and I am a recreational player trying to get the better of him. I didn't feel out of my depth - in fact I think his style is probably better suited to shorthanded rather than heads up as his aggression is quite low, but he never puts a lot of bets in without strong hands. That is irrelevant though. I am a person with a million family related tasks on the go playing poker as a sideline taking on a kid who eats, sleeps and breathes the game. I don't think it is hubris that means I expect to hold my own with 99% of limit poker players. I have the confidence in my ability and solid results, but even though when it is spelt out in black and white like that what you are up against then I think it may be worthwhile looking for a site where there are other players who are playing recreationally. Alternatively if the game has gone downhill across the board, perhaps it is time to take a break and look for something else to do?

After all, I've had a great run, and I'm not going to leave it all on the table.

Anyone who has been following the Isildur saga must be saddened to see this kid come from nowhere to win $5m over a couple of months and then blow it all in one night playing at the nosebleed stakes. Maybe I haven't got the gamble in me but that's not going to happen to me. Not that I have $5m but I mean I'm not going to surrender my bankroll like that.

On friday I greened out on the boxing on the Hatton promotions bill last Friday when I backed challenger David Dolan at 2.7 before the fight, then again at 2.98 at the mid point when according to the commentators he wasn't doing that well. I disagreed, and went in again. Dolan then went on a good run, sweeping the next three rounds on my card, and the exchange players seemed to agree as Dolan was backed in to 1.33 at which point I had him 3 up with 3 rounds left & I laid off to lock in a profit.

I must admit a few rounds were hard to score, and at the end I had the card 117-113 for Dolan but the judges were divided. One had it 115-114 Dolan, another 114-114, and the third judge, old duffer Terry O'Connor had it 116-113 for defending champ Rob Norton. This is the same Terry O'Connor who was the sole arbiter in the English title fight between Tyson Fury and John McDermott but managed to score a very close contest 8 rounds to 2 to Fury when most observers had McDermott winning.

Although I had locked in a profit I was saddened to see Dolan not get the decision here. Of course with a draw being the outcome then Norton retains his title which was a real sickener for Dolan who had been the aggressor throughout the contest. Ironically if he had toned down the aggression just a notch and concentrated more on his boxing he may have got the decision as he got clipped quite a few times while throwing power punches which may have contributed to him losing the majority of the opening rounds on O'Connor's card.

It was good to get back into the swing of things with trading in-play and I am now looking forward to doing a bit more on future broadcasts.

stay in action

Slacker

2009-12-29T22:31:00.003Z

With little in the way of competitive boxing action during December I made a small loss attempting a trade on the Haskins Broadhurst fight. I thought the judges might prefer Broadhurst's more direct style in a stinker of a bout and had a few quid on him at long odds against with a third of the fight to go.

As it was, I expected Haskins to tire over the later rounds but Broadhurst was completely devoid of any idea of how to make an impression on the elusive Haskins. It was an appalling effort from The Don who was exposed as being very one-dimensional in this bout. This contest was definitely too much too soon, despite the Midlands man being heavily favoured in the odds before the contest he will have to improve a lot to justify his reputation as a 'prospect'.

I also missed the boat on Amir Khan who was heavily backed to win inside the distance against Salita. I left it alone after I missed the value, but this was easy pickings asthe Bolton man decked his opponent three times in the opening round before the referee waved it off.

In another mismatch Vitali Klitschko was well backed to see off Kevin Johnson before the final bell. the bets were not landed however as Vitali boxed to a shutout victory but Johnson's defensive outlook enabled him to hear the final bell.

I struck out at Cheltenham's december meeting but hopefully that will prove to be a setback rather than a precedent for the big meeting in March.

Away from betting I have enjoyed reading Kevin Mitchell's boxing blog on the guardian's website and I've added a link to that in my favs section. Kevin still thinks the Pac.Mayweather fight will be made. i hope he's right.

The Guardian has some of the best sports writers. Racing correspondent Greg Wood is the best racing journo from the dailies in my opinion.

Also I enjoyed this ESPN article about a guy who spent six years searching for one of Ali's opponents.

I will try and give a bit more feedback on results for the year when I have a bit more time.

I cashed out a couple of grand for Xmas expenses the other day. The poker site kept me waiting for a week for my cash but it finally arrived.

The reason for the cashout was twofold. Firstly, the action at my level had dried up quite a bit and secondly I wanted to move some of my poker bankroll away from the Merge network for security reasons. I don’t like to have too much exposure in any one site, particularly not one of the minor rooms.

I hadn’t really felt like I was doing that well in the past few months but the net result of the up and down swings has been a gradual rise in the balance. I certainly hadn’t had any problems finding a game but almost overnight several of the regulars seemed to disappear.

Of course, as soon as I cashed out the action started to pick up again, but at least I have enough still left over there to cover me at my level.

After that I played a little poker and soon slipped into the groove but the session wasn’t particularly interesting.

While I was browsing the net I did broaden my horizons and take in a few betfair trading blogs which was a bit of an eye-opener into how naïve some people can be when it comes to betting, and how quickly a redundancy cheque can go south. It really did remind me of the old adage, how do you make a small fortune from gambling? Start with a big one.

Stay in action

Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup preview

2009-11-24T21:46:00.002Z

what a friend - can win a big one this season

This week sees one of my favourite races, the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury. I am hoping that Denman can become the first horse to win it twice since Arkle in 1964-65.
If that doesn’t happen perhaps What a Friend can start to fulfil his potential. He certainly looks very well handicapped and I expect him to win a decent handicap this season.

You're only as good as your last game

2009-11-24T21:34:00.002Z

Kessler was confident before the bout, working out in Roseville, CA

Not many fighters fall from grace as quickly as Mikkel Kessler.

As favourite for Showtime’s super six tournament before the commencement of hostilities, Mikkel Kessler was expected to see off an overmatched Andre Ward with ease on Saturday night.

It never looked that easy to me though, as winning in the USA, particularly on the other guys home turf is no sure thing.

I took the view that the unbeaten Ward, an Olympic Gold medallist, looked worth a small interest at +225.

The general consensus was that Ward was pitched in way too deep against the #1 ranked super middleweight.

I tend to dispel perceived wisdom – it’s in my betting DNA & I don’t mind getting it badly wrong though, when I am getting decent odds. (Yes, I admit I backed Sam Peter to beat Vitali Klitschko) I can look an idiot quite a few times when I’m getting substantial odds against, but the guy who back the sure things has to get it right nearly every time.

Most experts also figured Kessler to be too strong, and too powerful but there was always a possibility that Kessler was over-rated.

In reality, it appears that Ward was better than expected, and Kessler much worse.

I haven’t seen the bout yet, but Kessler’s career slate is having a re-examination, with tags like ‘one dimensional’, ‘slow’, and ‘robotic’ being trotted out.

Based on the reports, perhaps Kessler has slipped a little, and equally, perhaps he wasn’t as good as was thought.

No doubt Carl Froch will be very pleased with the outcome of the bout, as Kessler looks very beatable right now. I’m sure the Danish fighter will find the pace of a fight with Carl Froch more to his liking, and could bounce back, but there is no doubt Froch will be approaching the bout with increased confidence after watching his opponent get badly outboxed.

On the previous weekend I made a novice mistake. I backed Matthew Hatton to beat Lovemore N’dou. Again this was the type of fight where I could have looked foolish as the Manchester man looked out of his depth on the balance of the two men’s records. But Matthew has seemed on the way up, and N’dou, at 39, looked to be slowing down, so it could have been another bout like Ben Tackie v Hatton, where I expected class would tell and Tackie to stop the game but limited younger Hatton.

However Tackie was going downhill so fast that he was well beaten, and I thought N’dou, who was in the world’s top ten a few years ago, could be going the same way.

This time, on a home promotion, I figured the Hatton team may have got their sums right and caught N’dou on the way down, and at the odds of +300 it was worth a bet. The UK judges have not been kind to away fighters either.

I had a decent bet on, and topped up some more around halfway at +600 when Hatton drifted after a bad round. I still figured there was only a point in it, and if he could rally in the last third of the fight, he could still do it.

He actually managed a strong finish, sweeping the last three rounds on my card. That put him a two point winner on my card. I also figured the normal home bias might see Hatton judged a clear winner.

This was where I made my mistake. Going into the final round, Hatton had taken over as favourite and I needed to protect my investment. But in the excitement, instead of laying Hatton to ‘green up’, I backed N’dou, just to cover my stakes on Hatton. I then realised the draw needed to be covered, and backed that to cover the combined stake.

Of course I then realised I had the draw to consider, and again I backed that, so I had a breakeven situation on Ndou, and the draw, and a massive win on a Hatton success.

The result was 1 judge for Hatton, 1 for N’dou and the third one scored it a draw, meaning the outcome was a draw.

What a pain. I should have ensured a profit by laying Hatton as he came into odds-on but for some reason I had a brainstorm and made a mess of it.

Well, it could have been a lot worse of course.

Haye Valuev post script

2009-11-10T22:51:00.003Z

As previously posted, I backed David Haye to win inside the distance at 3/1.
I thought Haye would be too good, and in the end he was – in the opinion of the two of the three judges. I think he would have won by knockout if his right hand had not been damaged in round two.
But given the actual events, rather than hypothetical ones, was Haye fortunate?

It is very much a ‘pay your money take your choice’ issue, but given some of the debatable decisions in Germany, the fact that Haye demonstrated so little offence in a dire contest must surely make him fortunate to be given the decision.
One man was plodding forward showing aggressive intent, but missing with the majority of blows. The other was firmly in a defensive mindset, often spending 2m 45s of each round dancing around the ropes, before unloading with two or three clean power shots.
To my eye there were many similarities with the Froch v Dirrell, and Taylor v Spinks contest. In each of the those contests, the aggressor was given a decision despite not landing any punch of note. Indeed, both those victors plodded forward like Boris Karloff, hitting thin air for the vast majority of the contest.
In the last two mentioned bouts, the judges decided that however little Froch and Taylor were doing, it was more to their liking than the negative tactics of the opponents, and the intent alone was enough for them to be awarded rounds.
This time Valuev got a draw on one card but was an 8 rounds to 4 loser on the other two.
Respected Sky Sports commentator Jim Watt had it by 2 to Valuev, and in the studio, the pundits, who would be naturally biased to Haye on a UK Sky Box office presentation, while not explicitly airing their views, clearly hinted thoughts that the Englishman had been gifted a decision.
On the other side of the coin, Guardian writer Kevin Mitchell bizarrely gave Haye every round if fightwriter is quoting correctly.

That there was little dissent is probably due to the stoic nature of Valuev (who deserved better than his verbal assault) and also the probability that his promotional team have options on Haye as a condition for offering him the chance to challenge for the title.

I had it 114-114, and thought I was being generous to Haye, but let me make myself clear. I’m delighted that Haye got the nod.
David Haye is a credit to boxing and throughout his career he has taken on the top opponents in his fast track to glory. He has now won two major championship fights on away promotions, on mainland Europe where things are notoriously difficult.
A proper fighter, he deserves the millions that will now be coming his way.
He’s come a long way from the Sunday afternoon debut at the York hall in front of a handful of fans. I remember him posting on the forums under the name ‘davidhayewivsumthingtosay’
I hope there are many more great nights ahead for the Hayemaker.

stay in action

No Nark in the Park

2009-11-04T23:02:00.003Z

Just a small profit eked out this weekend.

I was reading before the British Super Middleweight title fight on Friday that Paul Smith is the hardest hitter that Billy Graham has ever worked with.

I found this hard to believe, and I think it was Chris Sanigar who questioned how he could say that after training Carl Thompson.

Billy had replied, ‘I was the one holding the pads’.

Well, it seems that Billy must be feeling the effects of the years because there was little evidence that Smith’s punches were having any effect on Tony Quigley in the bout.

Until the champion tired in the last two rounds, Quigley seemed in control and despite being out on his feet, Quigley never really looked like getting stopped even in the last round.

To be fair to Smith he was never hurt either, and in addition, power punches are not too easy to land on Quigley, as his style makes it difficult to land anything of note. It was worrying for Smith supporters that their man didn’t seem to impose himself on the contest, and seemed to be the one back-pedalling for most of what was in truth, a very scrappy affair.

I had seen Paul Smith box in pedestrian fashion before & I figured that Quigley’s win over Dodson might have been under-rated. I took a bit of the 3.55 about the champion and little I saw in the first 2/3 rds of the contest convinced me I was wrong.

The market makers on betfair clearly agreed and I was able to lay off Quigley at 1.36 in running after the 8th round.

On my card I thought that Smith needed a stoppage after 10 but I was relieved to have ‘greened out’ after the champion tired and Smith won the last two rounds clearly.

I still thought that Quigley had edged it but Smith was the house fighter, and also seemed to have more vocal support in the arena.

The result was a split decision in favour of Smith, which seemed a little tough on Quigley, but I was right to sacrifice some of my potential profits and secure a profit whichever of the three outcomes were decided.

Immediately after this contest Fran Warren told the MC to announce ‘there will be a rematch’, but I cannot say that there would be many looking forward to watching that again. After such all-Liverpool classics as ‘the Nark in the Park’ with Andy Holligan and Shea Neary, and the Quigley v Dodson thriller earlier this year, this one was pretty disappointing it has to be said.

The late Autumn season finally gets in full swing over the next few weeks with Sexton v Rogan II, David Haye challenging Nikolai Valuev on Saturday, and Miguel Cotto challenging Filipino sensation Manny Pacquaio.

Regarding the Haye v Valuev bout this weekend, i expect a big performance from Haye.

The bigger they come, the harder they fall is one adgage. of course you may also say 'a good big'un beats a good little 'un.
My take on this is that class is the over-riding factor rather than natural weight or size. Roy Jones Jr hammered John Ruiz by just being too good, and it really wouldn't surprise me if this was like Haye v Arthur Williams, where the younger guy jumps on the older, slower man from the bell and basically punishes him into submission.
Unless stamina becomes an issue, Valuev doesn't seem to have the power to KO anyone these days, instead relying on labouring to points decisions, several of which have been very generous.
let's face it, however you read it, a life and death struggle with faded former champ Evander Holyfield is pretty awful form, and Haye should be approaching this bout with confidence.
haye to win inside the distance at 3/1 is the recommendation.

still in action...

2009-10-22T22:05:00.004+01:00

but very busy with lots of domestic tuff, so I have had to sacrifice the blog updates, and this may continue for a while, but I have had to scale my bets back quite a bit.

This has been due to a few factors but primarily due to getting collared at a few of my books.

I even spotted two middles on the NFL, got my bets on and had my action cancelled without even getting an email to explain why.

I had some exposure there but one won and one lost so no damage was done.

Over the last two seasons I have done well from arbing and middling the NFL but 5 weeks in and it has been pretty poor this time round.

Now that I have cashed out my remaining balance with sporting I will look to a couple of other European books to see if they are out of line on their prices, and hopefully I will have a little more joy there.

In boxing, we have seen some recent action, not much of which has excited me very much.

I lost a little on the Prizefighter tournament which was ridiculous really as I tipped a 20/1 outsider who got to the final, winning his first two bouts. The only bout I backed him in though was the final when he had a great first round against Audley Harrison, but was knocked out in the 2nd.

Audley finally displayed some of the grit that has been lacking throughout his low profile career. Whether this heralds an upturn in his fortunes must be questionable though. To be fighting 8 fight novices nearly 10 years after his Olympic Gold is pretty poor, and it remains to be seen whether Audley will ever make into the top ten rankings of any of the world organisations. He is currently ranked #55 in the world by independent authority www.boxrec.com, but that is behind fellow Brit Tyson Fury who only turned professional last year.

I expect he will continue for a couple of years, fighting, and probably losing to fringe contenders like Derek Chisora or Fury, before disappearing off the radar completely.

Apart from Prizefighter, Sky’s output of Friday night fights has been lacking in decent contests, so much so that I couldn’t even be bothered to watch them.

Last weekend saw the start of Showtime’s Super Middleweight ‘Super Six’ tournament, and this tournament has really caught the imagination and put a much needed spring in the step for boxing.

It started with Jermain Taylor travelling to Germany to fight Arthur Abraham, and Andre Dirrell coming to England to face Carl Froch.

One of the rules of boxing betting is never to back against the home fighter on a German promotion. Of course I wrote the rule, and ignored it with my selection of Samuel Peter vs Vitali Klitschko.

Now, I am a fan of Abraham but I still thought he looked very small against the others in this tournament, moving up from middleweight and I gave Taylor a good chance of outboxing him. I envisaged him getting a decision after keeping Abraham on the end of his jab for the duration. At the odds, I had a small wager on Taylor, who was the underdog at 3.55.

Of course the judges were not needed as Abraham proved to be the puncher in the fight. Long before the knockout in rd12, Abraham had shown that a well organised style was too much for Taylor who had no plan B once his own punches were making no impression. From round 5 it was pretty much all Abraham who was easing to a wide points win until Taylor was caught flush with 20 seconds left.

This fight had me wondering

a) why I had broken my golden rule again, and

b) how Taylor had managed to defeat Bernard Hopkins twice

As likeable as he is, quite frankly Taylor is finished as far as elite level boxing goes. The Taylor who ground it out against Hopkins now seems a distant memory.

It will be interesting how Abraham gets on in his bouts outside Germany .

With his peek-a-boo style, gloves glued to the side of his head, and shorts pulled up to his armpits he has been protected from body shots by referees penalising clean blows as ‘below the belt’. He will not get the same kind of official assistance in the USA .

It would be a mistake to write-off King Arthur though. He is very tough, carries his power throughout a bout, and has a real fighting heart. Anyone who saw him boxing on for half the fight against Edison Miranda with a broken jaw will understand that.

Because he starts slowly and doesn’t seem very quick you always expect that a decent boxer could out-point him comfortably but he won’t be easy pickings for anyone.

In the other contest I figured the books had it about right, and was about to give this one a miss, when I notice the odds on Froch were dropping close to fight time.

Of course Dirrell had struggled to make weight the day before, and the line moved a little after that.

I wondered what was causing the line shift, and I spoke to a friend who was at the bout. He said that the word at the venue was that the occasion was getting to the American and that he was a nervous wreck, leading many to think he would freeze in the ring.

Of course I should have treated this info with a pinch of salt but instead I had a few bets on an early KO in rounds 2, 3 & 4, and a pretty lumpy bet on Froch to win over at Matchbook who hadn’t moved the line like the others.

For those who haven’t see it [link to fight writer] the contest (I hesitate to use the word fight) was absolutely awful, and there has been a lot of controversy about the judges scoring of the ‘fight’.

A couple of facts about the bout

Carl Froch was trying to engage his opponent in a battle of fisticuffs.

Andre Dirrell was attempting to stay out of punching range, and occasionally counter after his opponent had missed.

On my card, the score was 115-113 in favour of Dirrell.

Froch was plodding forward like Frankenstein’s monster but he wasn’t landing many punches, whereas Dirrell’s occasional counters were sharper and more accurate.

Indeed Froch appeared to be getting very frustrated as he couldn’t impose his type of fight on his opponent.

Froch has fought awkward opponents before, Matthew Barney perhaps the most unorthodox, but none as quick as his American adversary here who really was very sharp.

Now, two judges scored for Froch and one for Dirrell whilst most online pundits watching at home had the American a clear winner.

I likened the contest to Taylor v Spinks from last year when Taylor was the aggressor but plodded forward landing virtually nothing while Spinks fulfilled the Dirrell role of the bullfighter ‘now you see me, now you don’t’.

In the end, the judges preferred the aggressive intentions to the tactics of Dirrell and Spinks who were perceived as too negative.

Nevertheless, how can a fighter be awarded rounds for swinging at thin air?

The ironic thing is that Dirrell did finally take the centre of the ring in rounds 11 & 12, and reeled off a few punches that showed Froch he did have the power to compete at this level. The Englishman was even back pedalling at one stage, so if Dirrell had just been a little more ambitious, this is a fight he could have won.

I could have added to my stake in the closing stages with Froch trading at 2/1 on Betfair, even as we were waiting for the decision, but I missed out on this - I must admit I was pretty sure the decision would go the other way, but

Still, I'm not complaining with the bet putting me back in the black for the day.
Sometimes you get the decisions and sometimes you don't.

Asikainen v Macklin Preview

2009-09-25T18:16:00.003+01:00

Amin Asikainen is a solid European career middleweight who has been exposed when he has tried to take his career to world level.

Matthew Macklin is a solid domestic boxer who has been exposed when he has tried to capture British titles.

They share a common opponent, in the last two years, the veteran slugger 'Yory Boy' Campas.
Asakeinen stopped the tough Latino in five, whereas a few weeks later Macklin made do with a points victory.

So Asikainen is the favourite for this match. Wrong.
Macklin trades at 1.25 whereas you can get 4.2 about the Finnish fighter.

Why is Macklin such a big favourite?
Well he is the home fighter, as he enjoys a headline spot on the Sky Sports televised show, promoted by his friend Ricky Hatton who is acquiring a decent stable of boxers.

Macklin is a complex character. A bright lad who studied law before becoming a pro fighter, he has had more trainers than a sports shop in his paid career.
Initially a prospect under Frank Warren's promotional banner he was dropped after losing a decision to the awkward Andrew Facey.
He worked his way back to junior middleweight reckoning and challenged top notch British Champion Jamie Moore.
Macklin was with Hatton's trainer Billy Graham at the time so the fight was a real local derby against Salford hard man Moore.
In the event Macklin was brutally knocked out in the championship rounds after his petrol tank ran empty.
After giving a solid account of himself and being bang in the fight, Macklin worryingly was knocked out cold after seeming to run out of gas.
Many thought that heavy defeat would be the end of him, but he hasn't lost since and has regrouped with a series of wins, some impressive, others not so.
Two fights ago he looked sluggish as he made hard work of a durable journeyman, but he got it right in his latest fight, seeing off former champ and world title challenger Wayne Elcock.
The victory was clearly the best of Macklin's career and it is possible he has really clicked with new trainer Joe Gallagher.
He certainly produced a very polished performance being in total control in what had been billed as a 50/50 fight.
If he gets past Asikainen, the future looks promising for Macklin, with world title eliminators and possible big money fights with other boxers of Irish heritage like Andy Lee & John Duddy.

There are question marks about both men.
Asakainen, at 33 may be just going over the hill, while Macklin may be hugely flattered by defeating a fading shell of a fighter in Elcock.

I can see why the oddsmakers favour Macklin. He produced an apparent career best last time, and could be finally fulfilling the promise he showed as a young pro.
He is the younger man, on his own turf, and this fight has been made for him to win. There was also no disgrace in losing to Jamie Moore as the Salford boxer has showed he is above domestic class in his long unbeaten run. Macklin may be better equipped to a live TV fight this time round as he admitted to burning up a lot of energy with nerves in that contest.
1/4 is pretty short odds though.
As a seasoned traveller, and having fought abroad many times I don't think Asakainen will be fazed by coming over to the UK, and he could nick a points win, if Macklin is flattered by his last outing.
However, if Macklin is really an improved operator, he could force a late stoppage.
I'll probably give this one a miss and just watch it though.

stay in action

cancel this Party!

2009-09-13T23:14:00.001+01:00

what a joke. the Partybets bonus offer came with more strings than a broken Harp.

The bonus was only credited on completion of the rollover, which was 8x Deposit & Bonus.
Secondly, the only wagering that counted towards the bonus is at odds of greater than 2.0
So, a high wagering requirement, no option to bust, and a further stipulation that favorites could not be backed. Oh and I nearly forgot, a 14 day time frame to meet the bonus, or it is forfeited.
Anyone who manages to work through this requirement whilst maintaining their capital intact will have really earned their bonus.
If Party didn't offer such massive overrounds perhaps it would have been worth pursuing but I would say this is going to be impossible to do.

Let's get this party started...

2009-08-28T23:21:00.002+01:00

I've been away for a while - house moves and so on.

It takes quite a while to get back into the swing of things doesn't it?

we are nearly through August and I haven't even posted for a month.
On the betting front - well it has been a time of little activity.
For one reason I have not had the time with the proliferation of things that have need sorting out both prior to and since the house move.
There was also a two week hiatus while I had no internet access whatsoever. This was caused by a mistake at the suppliers end when the order was not set-up despite me ordering it 3 weeks before the move, precisely to avoid any delays in set up.
Still, it seems to be set up OK now.
I have moved from a cable based set-up to a phone line based broadband with a filter on the socket so you can get calls as well as having access to the internet.
The download speed seems to be reasonably fast considering I had heard a few nightmare stories about the supply of broadband in the country.

Obviously I had a mass of messages to work through with poker rooms tempting me with various offers to play at their sites, none of which were particularly enticing.
I had two messages from my old friends at Party. On the one hand they were threatening me with a charge of five Euros if I don't play any poker at least every six months.

It is hard to see how they could collect this charge when I have no money in the account at the moment.
Nevertheless I suppose they could try to deduct some money if I took advantage of the other item which is an email from the subsidiary partybets offering a 50% bonus up to $200.
Sounds tempting. I can always scalp this with matchbook or Pinnacle. I seem to recall that last year, the terms were a little strange in that bets only counted towards the rollover if they were struck at greater than even money.

It meant that bets on handicaps at -110 were useless for rollover purposes, but money lines on underdogs were the only way to do it. Of course a -110 handicap could still result in a bust but wouldn't count for a rollover.
I will have to have a look at the NFL pre-season and MLB games this weekend. I recall they also did a NFL juice-free game every week to small money, so that is one way of working at getting a rollover.
I have a few options for looking into middling on the NFL too - which was a rich seam to be mined last year.
Of course the real action in the NFL doesn't get under way until September, and pre-season games don't always allow big action.

I got back in the swing with a few hours 5/10 and 10/20 cash games at Spin32. I can't say that the month's break has done any good to the games.
The only regular active players are pretty decent and we could have a situation where the games have evolved to the extent that the fish have been eaten up. Even when a live one arrives in the game there are 5 waiting to kill him.
Having said that, the five regulars, while not weak, are not as good as those on iPoker at the same levels. I don't fear any of them but they are all competent.
Perhaps it is the time to find some new games.

Betfair laying - Silver Fox style

2009-06-30T22:59:00.002+01:00

I'm currently considering a blanket laying strategy as an exercise to gauge the profitability of laying activity on the exchanges.

I don't know whether to lay every fav for a maximum liability of 1 point, or lay each fav for a stake of 1 point.
I'll have to run a few simulations.
I don't want to get into a situation of laying too many longer priced horses even if they are favs. I would prefer lays to be in the range of evens to 3/1.
I think there is generally a bigger over-round built into shorter SP favs. I also think the term ‘blanket’ laying implies that it is pretty arbitrary, but over time I expect revisions and tweaks to refine the approach, possibly into exclusively handicaps, certain distances, race types etc

I had a quick look at results last week, and played the lays game for real myself on Tuesday, picking all overnight favs that fit the range. There were only 3 in markets that were mature, & I laid them all to 1 point stake by the backer.
All three lost, for a profit of 3 points

On the second day I laid three horses in this category, and all three won, at evens, 6/4 and 7/4. I had put in a lay on another but it didn't get matched, at 2/1, and that won too.
Out of interest the 6/4 horse was matched at 55 in running for £400 so a good result all round for backers there.
My loss on Day 2 was 4.25 points.

On day 2 I could have laid more but I tried to get a bit too clever and decided to stay away from one of the day meetings where there were a lot of qualifying favs and instead went for an evening card where the favs looked a bit less solid. This backfired as the afternoon jollies were all sunk and the evening ones all won.
I think I have to stay away from this line in the future, and just let the results take care of themselves.
As it is a fact as certain as night follows day, that bets on SP favs will always return a loss, it stands to reason that this will make money.
The judgement will remain as to what lay price will constitute an SP return, and when making an instruction for a lay where markets are immature, this will still require a little bit of judgement to avoid offering backers excessive value.

Another advantage of blanket laying without exceptions is that it is less time consuming than a detailed evaluation of every race which could end up taking a full days work.

As it stands I doubt William Hill’s are quaking in their boots, but stay with me, there may be gold in this yet.

-------------------------------------

I see the Racing Post are making some changes to their website which is currently a complete dog's breakfast since the move to racingpost.com
Personally I only use about a quarter of the screen as the only features I am interested in are the news and racecard features, which are surrounded by pointless video clips that don't work, adverts and a lot of general irrelevant rubbish.

Whoever paid to have this redesigned needs their head examining, but with £1.80 prices per paper copy and circulation falling through the floor I guess this is pretty typical of the Post's backward progress in recent years.
It looks as though they are finally getting round to charging for some site features. I guess this had to come but even so it will be a disappointing day for racing fans.

I think we may look back to the era of the early 2000s as a golden era for racing fans.
We had tax free betting, great sign up bonuses, free coverage of every race on Attheraces satellite channel, free access to form and analysis on Racing post site.

In 2009 we now face a £20 per month charge to watch half the UK racing on Racing UK, membership fees on the RacingPost site, and reduced sign up promos.
Still, its miles better than 15 years ago when we had betting tax on all bets, a few races on terrestrial TV every now and again, and comparing the odds meant walking next from one shop to another, so let's not get too despondent about the state of play.

Royal Ascot lives up to its billing

2009-06-21T22:58:00.004+01:00

Jealous Again - bullet speed

The greatest meeting in the world lived up to its reputation with some great races, great stories, and just as importantly, great profits for me!

I looked at the two year old race on the first day, and spotted a USA trained runner, Strike The Tiger who had won its only race on dirt over 4.5f.
Knowing the US horses are fast starters I fancied I could back the horse and lay off in running.
The horse was 55 on Betfair, and I had a few quid on.
It got into a clear lead at halfway, and i locked in a profit, but let the majority ride, and despite a long last furlong it held on by a neck for the first ever US trained winner at Royal Ascot.

My man in the long grass told me that wednesdays US runner Jealous Again was showing the most speed of any horse that the Wesley Ward stable had brought over.
Indeed the message from Newmarket was that the stall one berth was perfect for this fast starting rails runner.
Sure enough, John Velasquez got the filly in the box position and the opposition were burned off after two furlongs as the filly stormed to a 5 length win in a fast time that had Timeform calling it the best two year old filly for 20 years at the meeting. And the best bit - a 10/1 price.

After this the books took cover, shortening up the remaining three Ward runners to the front three in the betting despite the work watchers not being keen on their chances over longer trips.
Sure enough they were all unplaced, leaving my friend Andrew to comment very wisely about those who jumped on the ward bandwagon, just as the wheels fell off -

'If you haven't been to the wedding - don't go to the funeral!'

Wise words my friend.

Dreaming of the WSOP

2009-06-16T22:27:00.002+01:00

Our house move is taking up the lion's share of my time these days.

In preparation I have been taking steps to cash out from all my betting accounts.

The more sophisticated of you will know the reason why I am doing this, but if you don't, then look up the word g_nome in the dictionary or even better, google it with a betting context.

It's been a quiet time for me, with just a few hours of poker here and there. At the start of the month I ran very good, then very bad, and then pretty steady. I've tightened up a touch pre-flop which has made hands generally easier to play as I'm not hitting middle or bottom pair and wondering where I stand as often as I was before.

I was concerned that tightening up like this means you don't make as much from your monster hands as you have lost the element of disguise, as decent opponents can narrow down your holdings much easier.

As I play against many of the same opponents on a regular basis, I guess it does no harm to tweak your playing style a little here and there, as it stops them getting a reliable line on your play.

As many readers will be aware, the World Series of Poker is taking place at the moment. A friend of mine Mr Pink has qualified for the $10,000 buy-in Main Event. Well done Sir! Good luck, and let's hope you can bring some prize money back to the UK. It's amazing how many guys from the ITH forum have been to the big dance over the past few years. It would be great if one of them could make it into the money.

Perhaps I will make it myself - it would be great to win an all-expenses trip never mind the chance of playing in the world's most famous poker tournament.

Then again, I will have to start playing some qualifiers first!

In Racing, this week features my favourite meeting of the year, namely Royal Ascot. I haven't really got too many opinions to put forward at this stage, but I will be having a good look at the handicaps, particularly those run in the second half of the week.

This meeting is the time when top trainers really come into their own, and year in, year out the handicaps are won by progressive horses who have been trained for the big meeting.