Slumdog Forex - Daily Forex Analysis

AUD/USD Push Up - December 17th, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 09:01:00 +0000

The AUD/USD pair had a strong showing on Friday as we managed to push up against the 1.06 resistance level again. This area will have to give way for the Aussie to continue to climb against the US dollar, but we do think this is coming sooner or later. In fact, a break above that level not only breaks the resistance barrier, but it also breaks the top of the shooting star from Wednesday which of course would be a bullish sign in and of itself. Because of the consolidation that we’ve seen lately, we think that the market will not only break above that area, but move to the 1.08 and 1.10 levels going forward.

GBP/USD is Very Bullish - December 17th, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 05:47:00 +0000

The GBP/USD pair had a strong showing on Friday as we raced towards the 1.6175 area. This area has been resistance before, but it appears that we are now ready to start breaking out of it. If we can get above the level, we think that a move to 1.63 is all but counted in. A break above the 1.63 level has this pair moving much higher, possibly as high as 1.70 sometime next year.

We are very bullish of this pair, and have been for some time. We have no plans of selling, as we see far too many areas that could provide support. However, a pullback to the 1.610 level would have us buying at the very first signs of support.

GOLD at Support Area - December 17, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 02:17:00 +0000

Gold markets did very little during the session on Friday as we continue to tread water around the $7000 level. Just below, we see quite a bit of significant support all the way down to the $1680 level, and as such we would be looking for some type of supportive candle like a hammer or a green one to start buying this market presently.

A long-term trend is far too bullish for us to start selling, and as you know by now we hold physical and ETF forms of gold also. Because of this, we are never actually “short” the market, and will only buy these futures contracts on signs of support or strength. We presently believe that we are in an area that could very well provide a supportive candle, and are simply waiting to see that in order to start buying.

EUR/USD Monday View - December 17th 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 02:03:00 +0000

The EUR/USD pair broke above the 1.3150 level at the end of the session on Friday, signaling a new leg of in this currency pair. Is because of this that we think a break above the highs from the Friday session will signal that the pair is prepared to grind higher, and aim towards the next major resistance area in the form of the 1.340 level. We actually believe that we will eventually at 1.35, but it will be a grind, not a shot straight up.

This is mainly predicated upon the Federal Reserve and its quantitative easing policies, and the fact that the European debt issue seems to be in the back burner right now. Going forward though, there will be shocks to the system that will cause this pair to be erratic at times, especially considering that we are in the last two weeks of the year which of course is typically low-volume trading.

GBP/USD Possible Retracement - December 14th, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 08:42:00 +0000

After the pair's recent rally, it looks like the bulls are priming for a short break. For one, Stochastic is still not in the oversold area and is actually indicating downward momentum. We could see price pull back between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonnacci retracement levels and test the rising trend line too. Then again, if support at the 38.2% level holds, GBP/USD could skyrocket back up to 1.6300.

EUR/USD Making the Channel - Desember 14th, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 23:48:00 +0000

The EUR/USD pair shot straight up during the session on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve announced that it was going to continue its quantitative easing policies. Expansion should pump roughly another trillion dollars into the markets, and this of course should weaken the US dollar overall. Because of this, there was no surprise that the Euro gained. However, we do see the 1.3139 level as significant resistance, and you can see that the market struggle with it.

Because both currencies have a litany of problems, it is difficult to see how this market will breakout with any significance in the short-term. In fact, we are looking at it as a range bound market between 1.2660 and 1.3139 until we finally get some type of decisive move.

GOLD, Waiting For Another Break - December 13th,2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 01:00:00 +0000

The gold markets rallied during the session on Tuesday, but found the $1720 level to be resistive yet again. Nonetheless, it does look like we are starting to pick up steam a little bit from the $1700 level, and the FMOC meeting later today will more than likely be the catalyst for the next move in this market.

If the Federal Reserve decides to expand its easing program, we will see gold rise in value. This would be due to the devaluation of the US dollar, and the fact that so many central banks around the world are currently doing the same thing. Because of this, we believe in the long-term story in gold, but would like to see a break above the $1720 level in order to start buying again.

So, my trade strategy is waiting for the $1720 :)

EUR/USD Possible Bearish Move Today - December 13th, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 00:46:00 +0000

After a last week in a bearish movement, the EUR/USD pair started pushing higher this week. Big question is where can we can expect Dollar to start pushing higher again? We got prepared for today two wave counts that will help us to determinate possible resistance point.

EUR/USD Possible Bearish Move Today?
According to Elliott rules B wave usually retrace 50-61.8% of the corrective A wave.

According to alternation count the EUR/USD pair is currently at the end of the 1 impulsive wave of the bigger (5) wave and in this count too we are expecting to see drop in this major pair soon. We know that wave 2 often retrace 50-61.8% of wave 1 so if we measure possible targets we would get same targets like we get in the Primary Count. So we need to wait for 2nd wave to broker lower channel support line at 1.3020 level so that we will have confirmation for entering a short position today.

Fundamental View

Today News from European union showed positive results but we still need to take a look at news coming from the United States:

- Import Prices m/m
- FOMC Press Conference
- Crude Oil Inventories
- 10-y Bond Auction
- FOMC Economic Projections
- FOMC Statement

This news can impact to our wave count and change our count completely.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.2865 (S2) 1.2896 (S1) 1.2951 (PP) 1.2982 (R1) 1.3037 (R2) 1.3068 (R3) 1.3123

Final Conclusion About EUR/USD

The EUR/USD finished the development of the corrective A wave and we are expecting to see the price drop today when development of the B wave begins. Potential Targets can be set at 1.2961 (50%) and 1.2941 (61.8%), for Stop loss we can use resistance at a level of 1.3080.

USD Flat Ahead of Election - November 7, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 22:30:00 +0000

The U.S. Dollar traded lower in what is expected to be a light trading session. Today’s focus is on the U.S. presidential election with very little emphasis on the news or key fundamentals.

Although the EUR/USD posted as small gain yesterday, much of the move was attributed to position squaring ahead of the election. Uncertainty continues to be the driving force behind the weakness in the Euro. Investors are waiting for Spain to ask for financial aid. In the meantime, there is still risk surrounding Greece. Today it was reported that German factory orders fell the most in a year in September. This could be an indication that Europe is headed toward a recession.

Short-covering and position squaring helped boost the GBP/USD. Without any major economic news, traders are focusing on the outcome of the U.S. election. The general consensus is that a win by President Obama will mean a continuation of the dovish Federal Reserve. A win by Romney could mean that Fed Chairman Bernanke is out.

December Gold traded better as traders hedged themselves against the uncertainty of the election with long positions. Overall, low inflation has been helping to drive gold prices lower. Additionally, the stronger dollar has made gold relatively expensive to foreign traders.

Oversold conditions helped drive crude oil prices slightly higher. Oversupply concerns have been the driving force behind the recent lower prices, but technical factors kicked in today, reversing the current trend. Wednesday’s crude oil report is going to be important because it will be the first to reflect supply and demand after Hurricane Sandy.

Overall, look for light volume early in the session, but for it to increase as the election results become known.

GBP/USD at the crucial level - October 19, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 09:59:00 +0000

The GBP/USD pair initially rose during the session on Thursday, but failed at the 1.62 handle as the sellers stepped in. More concerning is the fact that we closed the very bottom of the range, and the candle engulfed the previous session by quite a measure.

With this being said, the 1.60 level is still very crucial for this market, and as long as we’re all that we are not willing to even consider shorting this pair. Even if we break the 1.60 handle, it’s very likely the 1.58 will offer support, and then buyers will step in at that point. It isn’t until we get below the 1.57 handle that we become very comfortable selling as it would be a long-term momentum change. Until that happens, we are looking to buy supportive candles but with the Thursday session happening, it may be a while before we see them.

EUR/USD The Bears Have The Energy - October 19, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 03:55:00 +0000

On its 4-hour time frame, EUR/USD seems to be pulling back from its recent rallies as its currently edging towards the 1.3050 area. That level is closely in line with a former resistance level and the 38.2% Fib! Could 1.3050 hold as support from now on? Stochastic is still pointing down, suggesting that euro bears have enough energy to take the pair further south. Be careful when trading this one!

GOLD, Another Dipped - October 19, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 23:24:00 +0000

Gold dipped over 8.00 in today’s session, losing the gains of the last two day. With little market incentive, and an over positive sentiment trades are shedding gold and moving to other commodities. Although the Chinese GDP was disappointing but at forecast, the other reports released today showed a significant turnaround, especially in retail sales and fixed asset investments, as well as industrial production. There is a belief that the Fed’s will reduce their QE as the US seems to be showing signs of a positive recovery, even though the jobless data was mixed today.

The wild card right now is the EU Summit and decisions being made regarding Spain and Greece.

Also South African miners returned to work today after settling their strike. Indian gold buyers have increased their purchases during the wedding season, as prices dip.

Gold and silver today dropped for the first time in three days as gains by the dollar before European Union leaders’ summit on the region’s debt crisis reduce demand for bullion as a store of value. European Union leaders gather in Brussels for two days starting today, where Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras prepares to argue for a two-year extension to meet the country’s bailout targets.

French President Francois Hollande says efforts to stem the turmoil that began in Greece could unravel if the EU fails to deliver on its promises. The euro fell for the first day in three against the US dollar, declining 0.3 per cent.

recommendation: buy to gain a little, then wait for pullbacks to buy back up to 1770 area

GOLD After The Breakout - Oktober 15, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 03:52:00 +0000

After consumer confidence data in the US printed much higher than forecast. Gold has been trading in a very thin range between $1760-1780 levels all through the week. Optimistic economic outlook and subsiding risks from the Euro zone has reduced investor’s attention on bullion.

Providing signals of a reviving US job market, new claims for unemployment benefit fell to the lowest level in four years last week and agreement for holding talks over a territorial dispute between China and Japan reduced bullion’s appeal. The dollar index slipped from its one month high while the Euro retained gains after the IMF backed giving more time to Greece and Spain to reduce their budget deficit. Meanwhile, holdings of ETF inched down for the first time in two weeks but were still close to its record high. At the same time physical activities are almost lackluster as prices are trading near multi-month highs. Demand from the world’s top consumers India and China are expected to surge in the coming months as both countries enter the peak consumption season that could boost demand in the physical market.

EURO Try To Hold The Bulls - October 15,2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 00:05:00 +0000

The euro continued to move higher throughout friday, but remained well within its recent range, while global equities advanced as euro zone optimism picks up ahead of the weekend. While the timing of a Spanish bailout remains highly uncertain, there is growing consensus that an aid request it is more likely than not after S&P downgraded Spain’s rating on Thursday. As such a request would trigger ECB bond buying program and lead to a further reduction in the euro zone bond yields, it could at least a near-term boost to the euro and most risk-sensitive assets.

Meanwhile in the US, a report showed producer prices grew less than expected in September, leaving the Federal Reserve room to continue its USD-weakening QE program

Above, must be able to penetrate EURUSD 1.2990 to continue the rising trend, while below 1.2922 will determine, whether the pair will be back under the 1.2900 area

USD rebound signals - October 12, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 09:53:00 +0000

The US economy appears to have turned the corner at last after flirting with danger earlier this summer, according to a rash of new data.

The tentative US rebound comes as forward-looking indicators across the world suggest that a clutch of countries are poised to pick up momentum again, though dangers abound.

New jobless claims in the US fell last week to the lowest since the onset of Great Recession, while home foreclosures have dropped to levels last seen before the sub-prime crash.

A burst of monetary and fiscal stimulus has begun to reignite the kindling wood in Asia and Latin America. Goldman Sachs said its early warning signal or Global Leading Indicator for September has shifted into the “recovery phase”. Its US tracking indicator shows a jump in the economic growth rate last month to 2.4pc from just 0.5pc in August.

Meanwhile, worldwide PMI manufacturing indexes have risen for a second month. Korean exports – watched as a proxy for China – have bounced back after crashing in August, and Brazil is perking up after cutting interest rates to a record low of 7.25pc.

Bank of America said its global momentum indicators “all point to better news”, with signs that the worldwide run-down in inventories over the summer has run its course. Once restocking begins, it tends to act as a spring for recovery.

Global banks and hedge funds seem willing to defy the grim forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, betting that it has missed the turning point in the economic cycle.

Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said a key money gauge – six month real M1 – has picked up and is now growing at 3.1pc in the top 14 advanced and emerging economies, the fastest since January. He expects global output to rebound in early 2013. “When the IMF turns gloomy, it is usually safe to bet on sunny uplands,” he said.

Yet risks remain. The IMF fears the world could tip into an “adverse feedback loop” if the US Congress lets fiscal policy tighten automatically by 4pc of GDP later this year, or if EU leaders let the Club Med debt crisis fester. The eurozone economy is still sliding into deeper recession.

Nor is it clear that better global growth will lift equities much further. Investors have already pocketed the promised manna from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Ashraf Laidi from City Index said Wall Street’s measure of rail, shipping and key transport stocks has been falling since June, failing to “confirm” the rally in the broader Dow Jones industrials.

This so-called Dow Theory signal is a favourite of Wall Street veterans. It screamed danger three months before stocks peaked in 2007, though it falsely cried wolf in 2006. The implication is that either economic growth will catch up, or the main equity markets will deflate to reflect economic fundamentals.

The Dow signal comes as third quarter earnings in the US turn negative for the first time since 2009, and at a time when profits claim a record share of GDP. “History is not on the side of those who expect the market to prosper once the earnings cycle has turned,” said Capital Economics.

Original link : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9602803/US-rebound-signals-IMF-gloom-may-be-overdone.html

USD/JPY trading in risk aversion mode - October 12, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 05:29:00 +0000

The USD/JPY is trading in risk aversion mode. G7 leaders and EU Finance Ministers are meeting in Tokyo along with the IMF and World Bank to discuss the current global economic situation. Side meetings are also scheduled to discuss the continue stress to the Japanese economy caused by the strength of the JPY. The USD and JPY are both picking up momentum as they are beginning to be the favored safe havens as markets turn to risk off assets. Global growth and debt continues to weigh heavily on investors’ minds along with the worsening slowdown in China. This morning Japan reported a drop in household confidence and Core Machinery orders which worsens the Japanese economic situation.
In addition, the USD / JPY is too low can also have an impact globally. JPY is too high will cause difficulties for the Japanese to export, in the long run this will lead to a trade deficit and will affect Asia regional basis.

Weekend Story: Fake Frankley - October 13, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 02:30:00 +0000

Fake Frankley is a fake market conditions would deceive many traders when entering the European session ... it is a game of the big boy / broker

eg the European session ahead of the market trend is up, then the big boy will be done to outwit the mass sales traders, but after that the trend back up

should observe first, let memorized movements

Frankey .. it's a play on the nickname of Frankfurt .. The start of the European session. So Berlin and Frankfurt, as one of the financial centers in Europe .. start a daily transaction .. on each Pk. 8:00 am their time GMT +1

details to observe Price Action in H1 Fake Frankey, of course can be seen by observing the four candle M15, the observed momentum, so that we can consider whether the 'movement' that is happening now (bullish), a movement 'real' or just a 'hoax' , in order to attract as many 'buyers' individual, who will then, in 'sweept' / washed down again with fast-motion ...

we can see in the order of 4 candle M15 H1 candle that form berlin / frankfurt, that upward momentum slowed, and the last candle M15 now suddenly turned bearish ...

so that the composition of four candle M15 berlin / frankfurt is seen from its H1 format, will begin to form a 'shadow' on the candle ...

M15 candle last movement of the H1 berlin / frankfurt, more likely to be perceived as, the condition of consolidation, where 'funds' that are used to create movement 'bullish' before, have started to be transferred to the 'base' make a move 'selling' ..

Well .. berlin / frankfurt H1 candle is perfectly done, and now it's entering the H1 candle london, where, this is the main strength of euro zone finance ... , We see the first candle M15 london session while moving up / bullish, it is a condition, positioning 'bigboys / smart money', which must be understood logically, that Mark would 'put' his sell order when the price increases, and / or placing his order buy when prices 'still' moving down ..

It is to understand / explain the basis of the question, why the market goes up or down ... who have often mistakenly .. understood. ie 'market down' as much 'vendor / supply' and a little 'buyer / demand', and vice versa 'market ride' for many 'buyers / demand' and a little 'vendor / supply'.

so, who should have understood, 'market down' because 'void', no more 'buyers' / demand, and 'market up' because the 'void' is also due to lack of 'vendor / supply'. Noteworthy is, that is the 'buyer' and 'seller' here is the 'bigboy', and not the individual traders who used such as we dubbed the 'herd' ... by them.

We also need to understand, for us such as individual traders who use trading platform MT4 from brokers, of course, for us to install both instant and pending orders was not a big deal, just in a matter of seconds., While for large market players, to drive 'funds 'they enter the market or out of the market, is not an easy thing .., especially if' they 'do not want' movement 'is known in advance.

NEWS UPDATE : Weak US Dollar Gives Way to Aussie, Euro Rebound; Gold Higher as Well

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 13:58:00 +0000

There were two major developments over the past 24-hours, one in Asia and one in Europe. Yesterday after US equity markets closed, Standard & Poor’s announced that it had cut the Spanish sovereign debt rating to ‘BBB-’ from ‘BBB+’, bringing the nation to the brink of ‘junk.’ Yes, that’s right: Spanish debt is still considered investment grade paper. Although the Euro reacted quite negatively to the news (a downgrade from Moody’s Investors Service was expected, not from S&P), it has since rebounded on the sentiment that any additional bad tidings could force the government into seeking a bailout via the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which came online Monday. This would also pull the European Central Bank into the market as a lender of last resort for Spain, given its unlimited sterilized bond-buying program.
In Asia, data showed that the Australian labor market made strides forward in September, despite a sizeable increase in the Unemployment Rate: jobs were added at a quicker pace than previously thought; and the participation rate, a gauge of the population in the labor pool, increased as well (hence the jump in the Unemployment Rate). Considering that Australia’s largest sector is mining, this is a welcomed development for a nation whose fate is very much tied to the Chinese growth picture. It is of little coincidence that the Australian Dollar leads as more evidence gathers that fears of a Chinese “hard landing” are overblown in the near-term.
Taking a look at credit, peripheral European bond yields are mixed, holding back further intraday Euro strength. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.294% (-0.3-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 3.217% (+2.6-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 5.059% (-2.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.768% (+0.7-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.
While there are numerous American and Canadian data releases this morning, there are only three that are worth paying attention to. At 08:30 EDT / 12:30 GMT, the weekly USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 6) report is due, with claims hovering near recent levels; at this rate, October jobs growth looks to be in the area of +105K to +125K per month. Also released then is the USD Trade Balance (AUG), which should show a wider deficit despite a weakening US Dollar throughout the month. Finally, in the second half of the North American trading session, the USD Monthly Budget Statement (SEP) is forecasted to show a surplus.

quoted from: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/morning_slices/2012/10/11/Weak_US_Dollar_Gives_Way_to_Aussie_Euro_Rebound_Gold_Higher_as_Well.html

AUD/USD Still Affected By Global Slowdown - October 10, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 00:30:00 +0000

AUD/USD managed to climb to 1.0233 as the USD weakened as traders moved into more risk assets. The Australian dollar recovered a bit of ground yesterday morning, helped by profit-taking and a bounce in Chinese stocks, though the mood remained fragile on global growth worries and subdued economic data in Australia. The Aussie gained half a cent. Traders cited active participation from the model funds who are big buyers on dips. Risk aversion eased after the European Central Bank said it was ready to buy bonds of troubled euro zone countries and the Ministers Eurofin activated the ESM and also drew up plans to deal with Greece and Spain.
The IMF reduced global growth and the World Bank reduced its outlook for the Asian regions.
The Aussie has fallen around 1.4 percent so far this month versus its U.S. counterpart and 2.5 percent against the euro, due in part to a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week and the prospect of more easing. A top Australian central banker said on Tuesday weaker global outlook and a softening in the domestic labor market were the "primary factors" behind last week's easing.

GOLD Demand for physical gold is expected to rise - October 10, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:33:00 +0000

Act of IMF revised its growth rate will slow down has hit the market very hard.
Currently, the market is waiting for a major financial stimulus package from the PBoC.
Demand for physical gold is expected to rise this month due to upcoming festive and marriage season.
Speculative interest in gold remained strong with the holdings of gold backed exchange traded funds rising to historic high on Monday. ETF holdings rose almost 6 percent over the past two months. While high prices have been putting a lid on physical demand, India's demand is Likely to prop up in the coming months due to upcoming festive and marriage season. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Merkel's visit to Greece this week will be the other crucial event Curiously investors watch out for getting a direction on bullion.

EUR/USD Concerns Continue Devastate Europe - October 9,2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:22:00 +0000

EUR/USD back down as investors continued to worry about the condition of Greece and Spain and the EU situation that does not seem able to cope with everything. Most of the global economies are pointing towards the EU as the overall factor weighing down their economy. The IMF revisions in growth shows the contagion affects around the globe Caused by the ongoing EU dilemma. No matter how much the government stimulus around the globe approve, without a turnaround in Europe, it will be just good money after bad. China will not be Able to pull out of its slump unless the EU begins to order goods and the U.S. will not be Able to see earnings and growth, while the EU sucks down the profits of global companies.
Spanish bond yields rose after euro zone Finance Ministers said on Monday that Madrid do not need a bailout, adding to uncertainty about when the country will ask for aid, Widely seen as inevitable.
Concerns about Greece issue also resurfaced after the European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi told the European Parliament Committee that Greece has made progress on reforming its economy, but has more work to do.
Adding to the negative sentiment, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts for the second time since April and U.S. and European policymakers warned that failure to fix their economic ills would Prolong the slump

EURO Still Haunted by Spain's Balance Sheet - October 9, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 07:07:00 +0000

The euro got beat up in yesterday's trading as risk aversion dominated market sentiment. It finished 56 pips lower against the dollar at 1.2971 and suffered an 88-pip loss to the yen at 101.61.

Skepticism over Spain's balance sheets continued to haunt the euro. EU finance ministers met yesterday and they reiterated that the country doesn't need a bailout. With a major bond auction coming up at the end of the month, investors are worried if Spain could find enough demand at relatively low yields for its bonds.

Heck, market junkies are so worried about the fourth largest economy in the euro zone, they shrugged off the official inauguration of the ESM. Yup, you read that right. The permanent rescue fund is now operational with a financial capacity of 200 billion EUR to replace the EFSF.

Of course, it didn't help that mixed economic data hit headlines too.

Although Germany reported a much smaller contraction at 0.5% of its industrial production for August versus the -0.7% forecast, the Sentix Investor Confidence index fell short of expectations. The figure for October printed at -22.2 indicating that investors are more pessimistic about economic conditions in the euro zone that analysts predicted with the consensus just at -20.6.

Our forex calendar is blank for top-tier data from the euro zone today. However, with the ECOFIN meetings still ongoing and ECB President Mario Draghi scheduled to speak later (7:30 am GMT), keep an ear out for updates regarding Spain! I have a feeling that more denials about the country's need for a bailout would only do more harm than good to the euro.

GOLD Investors Begin To Worry - October 9, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 02:35:00 +0000

USD continues to strengthen against its opponents. Speculation is happening to the state of the EURO zone economy adds to concerns of investors to the gold price. German Chancellor Merkel's visit to Greece today will be the other crucial event Curiously investors watch out for getting a direction on bullion. A report from the World Bank says that economic growth in East Asian countries Including China will drop to the weakest level since 2001 in the current year.
Concerns over global economic growth provide firm support to the bullion. Meanwhile, Speculative interest in gold remains high with the net long position in U.S. gold futures and options again surging to its highest level since the end of February. Physical activities from Asia remained dull but active participation from China is expected in coming days as their markets reopened today after a week long holiday.
Gold-Euro correlation has eased again to 0.85 from its early peak of 0.96. Over the weekend the IMF's revised global growth. The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and 2013 and called on Politicians in the eurozone and the U.S. to take "decisive" steps to restore confidence, a German newspaper said. Citing excerpts from the IMF's World Economic Outlook to be released early next week, the business daily Handelsblatt said that the Washington-based body predicted world economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013.

EURO as IMF cut its global growth forecasts - October 9,2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 01:25:00 +0000

The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and 2013, a German newspaper said on Friday. Citing excerpts from the IMF’s World Economic Washington-based body predicted world economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013.

The week ahead is comparatively light in terms of economic data releases while there are certain important events pertaining especially to Euro Zone and sentiments are likely to be centered around these events. To start with, Euro Area finance ministers will be meeting in Luxembourg today and tomorrow and investors will be looking out for cues on Spanish bailout and issues between Greece and troika of IMF, European Commission and ECB. In the meeting, the ministers are expected to launch their 500 billion euro permanent bailout fund to support distresses euro zone nations. ECB’s Draghi will be speaking at European Parliament Panel on Tuesday and this event will be highly watched out for his comments as he had earlier announced that the outright monetary transactions program was ready for immediate use. Also, German Chancellor visiting Greece on Tuesday and G7 meeting on Thursday are the other important events. Among the economic data, US trade balance and PPI on Thursday apart from the weekly jobless data will be in focus. Earlier today, the German trade balance released showed an unexpected rise in exports in August while industrial production contracted 0.5 per cent from 1.3 per cent in July.

USD/CAD should be one of the more favored currencies - October 8, 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 06:05:00 +0000

The USD/CAD pair fell during most of the session on Friday as the Canadian jobs number was outstanding. However, by the end of the session we got quite a bit of a bounce and formed a hammer that centered just below the 0.98 handle.

This pair should continue to find buyers in this general vicinity, but the oil markets must be followed in order to truly understand where this pair wants to go. The light sweet crude market should continue to drive this pair back and forth, and it must be said that as oil sold off during the Friday session, the US dollar gained against its northern counterpart.

We see a significant amount of resistance at the 0.9950 level, and a move above that area should signals this pair going much higher. Depending on what happens in the oil markets, this will more than likely move the markets in one direction or the other. The Middle East of course is always capable of producing some type of negative headlines that will drive crude oil much higher, and as such we expect even if this pair wants to go to 1.04 that it will struggle as there will be a lot of back and forth with headlines coming out.

The Canadian dollar should be one of the more favored currencies going forward if we can get some type of reversal in the oil markets. The currency pair is one that has a history of going sideways for some time, so we won’t be surprised if we actually start to form a small consolidation zone as we had seen the previous two weeks. However, we think that in the long run this pair will show itself as being negative if we can break the bottom of the Friday range. Because of this, we think that the 0.97 level is the signal to go short, while the 0.9950 level is signal to go long.