Key quote on women:

In the coming decade we will see a sea change in the way feminine power is incorporated in society.

More interesting is her quite negative view on the future of men:

It will be up to women to protect men in this new world order. They will need to teach men how to survive and thrive in a society that puts more and more value on feminine characteristics.

Women will have to do this because:

Males’ problems with aggression, depression and performance will continue to worsen as long as they go untreated.  Educators and employers will have to deal with the sociological problems men are experiencing.

We've been following and reporting on the End of Men and the Rise of Women trends for several years.  

The basics behind these trends are a growing set of data indicating that men are falling behind women in a wide range of well-being, educational and employment measures.  

When we first started covering these trends the feedback wasn't positive.  A lot of people (men and women) didn't believe women are not only catching up to men, but in some ways overtaking them.

But the data is overwhelming and over the last couple of years the idea that women are rising has become, more or less, accepted.

We agree that men face a number of challenges (education in particular is a growing problem), but we think Popcorn's view of men is way overstated. We've also never bought into the "if women are rising, men must be sinking" point of view.  

The Rise of Women can benefit everyone.

The part of the article I'm most intrigued by are the 3 laws of future employment.  These are:

Law #1: People will get jobs doing things that computers can’t do.

Law #2: A global market place will result in lower pay and fewer opportunities for many careers. (But also in cheaper and better products and a higher standard of living for American consumers.)

Law #3: Professional people will more likely be freelancers and less likely to have a steady job.

There appears to be broad agreement with these 3 laws.  The Marginal Revolution blog, for example, argues against some of the article but states "We are in basic agreement about the laws of future employment." 

I too am in agreement with the laws.

Related to freelancing, the interesting - and unanswered - question is how extensive will freelancing be?

We think Gene Zanio, CEO of MBO Partners, is correct when he suggests up to half of all U.S. workers will independent in 2020.  But I need to disclose MBO Partners is an Emergent Research (that's us) client and we worked with them on the State of Independence Study.

But while we think the number of independent workers will continue to grow, we are in no way forecasting the end of traditional employment or traditional jobs.

Even looking out very long term - 20 or 30 years - we think somewhere between 25% - 40% of workers will have employment relationships that are, or look a lot like, traditional jobs.  

This moment occurs when we collect, sort and open our mail - and do so with a bit of excitement and anticipation.  

Younger readers will wonder what I'm talking about.  They've never experienced the pre-email, pre-social media "mail moment".  But folks who grew up prior to the Internet know.  

The article is artfully written, and captures my mixed feelings about the Postal Service.  

I love this quote from the story:

Each household's mail moment has its rules and rituals — who opens what, whether it's left on the kitchen counter or hall table. It's when someone calls, "Anything good in the mail?" The answer, usually, has been yes.

I've always liked the Postal Service.  And I can link many great memories with the mail.  

I'm also amazed that someone will come to my house, pick something up, and deliver it anywhere in the country for just 46 cents!  Who but the Postal Service would do this?

No matter how much I like the Postal Service, it doesn't change the fact it's bloated, out-dated, loses billions of dollars and uses tax money to subsidize the direct mail industry.  It's got to be down-sized and restructured.  

But I miss the mail moment.

This is interesting for several reasons.

First, the accounting profession realizes businesses of all sizes are increasingly global.  This means accounting professionals need to have the skills to advise their clients on global issues.  It's good to see accountants looking to lead in this arena.

Second, the new accounting designation is designed to emphasize the human nature of organizations. They issued a white paper called Rebooting Business: Valuing the Human Dimension that explains this. 

Regular readers will know Being Human is one of our Top 10 Small Business Trends of 2012.

One of the reasons it's on our top 10 list is we knew the Accounting Profession was stressing the importance of Being Human.  Let's face it, if even accountants are trying to be more human how can this not be an important trend?

All kidding aside, going forward we see accountants playing an even more important - and strategic - role advising small businesses than they do today.  Help with international business is one area, better understanding and using data to improve small business operations is another.  

So we agree with CPA Success blog when they say: 

"CPAs and management accountants today are more than number-crunchers. They're strategic business partners."

The New York Times recently called manufacturing a "Surprising Bright Spot in the U.S. Economy", the sector has added 330,00 jobs over the last two years, manufacturing economic indicators continue to rise and the President has made manufacturing the center of his economic policy.

The times are even more exciting for small (less than 100 employees) and micro (less than 5 employees) manufacturers.  Most people don't realize how many small manufacturers there are the U.S.  

According to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department, there are about 330,000 U.S. manufacturing firms.   As the chart below shows, roughly 120,000 of these firms have 4 or fewer employees and over 80% have fewer than 50 employees.

But even this way understates the number of small manufacturing firms in the U.S.  The chart data is based on traditional definitions of manufacturing and excludes the growing number of artisans, professional Makers and others who build or create physical goods.

The craft market place Etsy, for example, had over $500 million in sales in 2011 - $70 million in December alone.  Etsy's strategy going forward is create a business platform that will provide broader support to their thousands of business oriented artisans.

To see some examples of artisan manufacturing, watch one or more of the wonderful and inspiring Made by Hand videos or visit their online store.

The professional Maker market also continues to grow.  Make Magazine's Best of Maker Business 2011 provides an excellent summary of the business activities of these inventors and tinkerers.

The trends supporting the rise of small and micro manufacturing are powerful. One of the most important is a structural shift in how the U.S. manufacturing industry is organized.  

Due in large part to foreign competition, U.S. manufacturing is no longer dominated by large companies and commodity manufacturing.  Instead, U.S. manufacturing is increasingly done by a decentralized network of small, specialized firms.  These firms rely on close customer relationships, automation, high productivity,valued added services and customized or specialized products to compete.  

Other trends leading the the rise of small and micro manufacturing include:

 - Shifts that are making U.S. manufacturing more cost competitive.

 - New technologies like 3D printers that enable small and micro manufacturers.

 - Increased demand for customized, specialized or niche products.

 - The growing awareness of the hidden costs of manufacturing overseas.  

As you can tell, we're very optimistic about small manufacturing and expect the sector to continue to expand in the coming years.  

Consumer vigilantes speak up! On and offline protest is in the spotlight, pressuring brands towards greater accountability and genuine innovation.

DIY life - Consumers are revelling in their ability to track and control their health, identity, communication and buying habits.

Reality culture and consumers: Scripted reality or celebrities living the dream - consumers are gripped, sharing views and being moved to change their purchasing behaviour.

I found these interesting because the first two speak to the growing power consumers have - both in terms of controling their own lives and the impact they can have on brands and institutions.  

The 3rd trend I've listed - Reality culture and consumers - is real but disappointing.  With growing access to information and increased power, you would hope consumers would pay less attention to reality TV and the behavior of celebrities.  But we don't.

More importantly, private employment increased by 257,000, more than off-setting a small decline in government employment.  This continues a trend towards stronger private sector hiring.  Over the last 12 months private sector employment is up 2.1% while government employment is down 1.2% (this nets to a 1.5% overall increase).  

This is really good news - private sector hiring is always the key to economic growth.

Despite the good news, the economy still has a long way to go.  The workforce participation rate fell slightly to 63.7%, which is the lowest it's been since 1982.  Also, there are about 5.6 million fewer people working than just prior to the recession, and the number of long-term unemployed is still a very high 5.5 million.  

But overall a solid jobs report that shows the economy is on a solid, if modest, growth path.

"These days, corporate-weary consumers care more and more about buying locally, supporting independent businesses and owning products that are made sustainably and responsibly. They want to know the story of what they're buying, who is selling it and what causes it may support."

Another good story on small business storytelling is The Power of Storytelling for Businesses.  It includes a small business storytelling guide.  

Large corporations have embraced storytelling.  According to the soon to be released book Lead with a Story:

"At Nike, all senior executives are designated "corporate storytellers." 3M banned bullet points years ago and replaced them with a process of writing "strategic narratives." Procter & Gamble hired Hollywood directors to teach its executives storytelling techniques."

The rise of storytelling is one of the reasons we choose "Being Human" as one of our top 10 small business trends for 2012.

Customers no longer want to do business with firms that are focused short-term, transactional, profit-oriented business relationships.  Instead, customers that want to engage with firms that are authentic, honest, strive for "win-win" and treat them them as human beings.  

With Big Data (also in our 2012 top trends list) becoming more common, so will storytelling.  It's one of the tools that will be used to explain large and complex datasets.

The final report is available and has greater detail on non-profit employment over the last decade.  

As we mentioned in our last post on this topic, non-profit's employ a lot of Americans.  The chart below - from the report - shows how big the sector is.

Non-profits are mostly small businesses and the vast majority have fewer than 250 employees.  

It actually declined quite a bit.  In 2010 half of the Inc. 500 blogged.  But in 2011 only 37% did.  

While blogging is down, social media usage is up.  Facebook is used by by 74% of Inc. 500 members, LinkedIn by 73% and Twitter by 64%.  Overall, 91% of the Inc. 500 report using some form of social media.

So why are fewer small businesses blogging?  Based on our research the reasons are:

1. Blogging is hard and takes a lot of time
2. Most small businesses fail to see a solid ROI from blogging
3. Small businesses are seeing a higher return from other forms of social media.  

Based on our research, the main reasons small businesses fail to see a solid ROI is their customers/prospects: (1) don't read blogs in general, (2) aren't interested in reading/engaging with the specific small businesses blog, and/or (3) don't read the blog because they don't have time and/or are more engaged with other content.  

Not only is the R low for most small business bloggers, the I is high.  Blogging takes time, and time is a precious commodity for small businesses.  So for most small businesses, other social media makes more sense.  

Before you send me hate mail saying blogging is good for search results, let me add that relatively few small businesses we've studied have seen a pick-up in search results - and business coming from search - based on their blogging.  

But small businesses are seeing solid returns from other forms of social media, which is why usage of Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter are up.

We're not negative on blogging.  For many small businesses blogging is an excellent marketing tool.  But like any tool or marketing method, it's not for every job or every company.

Most interesting is their explanation for the rise in exports - domestic problems.  Key quote:

Much of the rise in exports is a consequence of domestic problems. The value of the dollar has declined, so that foreigners save money when they buy American. Businesses, struggling to find customers here, are focusing on foreign sales. And a boom in commodity prices, which has raised the price of life for most Americans, has produced a windfall for those who trade in commodities.

While I don't totally disagree, talk about your "half glass empty" explanation.

We've been following the growth of exports for years and prefer a "half glass full" explanation:

1.  Growth in the developing world is creating new opportunities for U.S. exporters.

2.  U.S. companies are increasingly recognizing these opportunities and exploiting them.

3.  The U.S. industrial mix of high tech products, high quality manufactured goods and commodities is well positioned to take advantage of export opportunities going forward.  

We're very optimistic about America's ability to compete in global markets.  This is not a result of domestic problems, but instead the result of a dynamic, innovative, high productivity economy.

"Cooperatives are business enterprises owned and controlled by the very members that they serve. Their member-driven nature is one of the most clearly differentiating factors of cooperative enterprises. This fact means that decisions made in cooperatives are balanced by the pursuit of profit, and the needs and interests of members and their communities."

According to The International Co-operative Alliance (a co-op trade association) there are over 1 billion global co-op members.  In the U.S., credit unions are a prominent example of co-ops.  Other highly visible U.S. co-operatives include Ace Hardware and Sun Maid Raisins.  

Co-ops are not new.  They started as grassroots organizations in Europe, the U.S. and Japan in the early to mid 1800's.  As a former midwestern farm boy my favorite early co-op is The National Grange of the Order of Patrons of Husbandry.  For obvious reasons, it's more commonly known as The Grange.  

The Grange started a secret fraternity, but took off in the late 1800s as a way for farmers to organize in the face of low agricultural prices and the power of railroads.  It's still around today.

One of the drivers in the growth of cooperatives is their values and principles. Cooperative "are based on the values of self-help, self-responsibility, democracy, equality, equity and solidarity. In the tradition of their founders, co-operative members believe in the ethical values of honesty, openness, social responsibility and caring for others."

There are also 7 principles of cooperatives:

1. Voluntary and Open Membership
2. Democratic Member Control
3. Member Economic Participation
4. Autonomy and Independence
5. Education, Training and Information
6. Co-operation Among Co-operatives
7. Concern for Community

These sound a whole lot like the core values of coworking.  Like coworking, the co-op field even seems to have their own hyphen issue, with some hyphenating co-operative while others don't.  

We believe the use of the co-op model will continue to expand.  The co-op model provides a lot of business flexibility, but also allows for member control.  It fits well with the shift towards values-based business.

This is not a new trend.  The share of Americans living in multi-generational households has been trending up since 1980.  

But due to the Great Recession there's been an acceleration in the numbers of young adults living with their parents. Key quote from the Salon article:

"According to the Census Bureau, the number of 25- to 34-year-old adults in the U.S. living at home rose from 14 percent in 2005 to 19 percent in 2011."

An interesting insight from the book is that more men are staying with their parents than women.  The author explains:

"Women seem to be streaking ahead in educational attainment and occupational prestige. That may be one of the least recognized, but most important changes of our time. As they graduate high school and enroll in college at a higher frequency than men, women at the high end of the skill spectrum are starting to outstrip men in their earnings."

We call this trend The She-conomy, and we've written in the past about women passing men in most measures of educational achievement.   

While I agree with the author that changes in the economy is the key driver of this trend, other factors also play a part in the increase in multi-generational housing.  Increased immigration, for example,has resulted in more U.S. residents from cultures where multi-generational housing is a social norm.

The rise of two income families and longer life spans are also having an impact.  These are leading to an increase in multi-generational households for child carer, elder care, or both. 

We believe this trend will continue to grow and the next decade will see a steady increase in multi-generatonal housing.

The key quote comes from Maclean's:

"The rise of the contract worker may also be having a more wide-scale impact than previously realized. A growing gap between rich and poor in countries like Canada has been blamed, in part, on a growing number of poor quality jobs. There’s also mounting evidence to suggest that the rise of the throwaway worker has made recent recessions more painful and longer-lasting. Temp jobs? More like a temporary economy."

Obviously Maclean's is not a big fan of independent work, and sees it as a cause of income inequality.

We don't agree.  

As part of the 2011 State of Independence study we looked at independent worker income.  We found median per capita income for U.S. independent workers to be roughly the same as the median per capita income for workers overall.  

We also found a fair amount of income inequality among independent workers.  In particular 3 overlapping groups of independent workers significantly out earn other independents: (1) older independents (55+), (2) independents who have been independent longer than 5 years, and (3) independents that are highly satisfied with independent work.  

In other words, income inequality among independent workers somewhat mirrors overall income inequality.  

Our explanation - which is based on our interviews and other qualitative work - is independent workers with the right skill sets and experience are thriving and are much more financially successful than those who don't.  This is very similar to what is happening across the workforce in general.  

Because of this, we don't see the shift to independent work as a cause of income inequality.  

Instead, we think the shift to independent work is being driven in part by the same trends that are causing income inequality.  

So what's causing income inequality?  I think former Labor Secretary Robert Reich nails it in his book Super Capitalism.  

Everyone should read this book, but his recent Financial Times article We are all going to hell in a shopping basket nicely summarizes his views.  Key quote:

"At a deeper level the crisis marks the triumph of consumers and investors over workers and citizens. And since most of us occupy all four roles, the real crisis centres on the increasing efficiency by which we as consumers and investors can get great deals, and our declining capacity to be heard as workers and citizens."

The client didn't agree.  

So as you can imagine, I was pleased to see that Shell Oil (not the oil company we worked with) is starting a business center pilot project in Europe.  They are working with business center leader Regus to open business centers at several of their gas stations.  The first is open outside of Paris.

The centers are designed to the meet the needs of mobile workers and will provide pretty much all the services one would expect from a business center.  

Regus does a nice job explaining the project on their blog.

I'm  curious to see how this pilot goes.  When we looked at this the driver (bad pun intended) was the growing number of people using their vehicles as mobile offices.  This is a large and growing group that need support beyond what they can carry.   

The trends listed in the article are:

• growing U.S. energy production
• demographic shifts favoring the U.S.
• the agricultural boom
• manufacturing returning the U.S
• U.S companies dominating the IT industry
• Increasing levels of foreign investment in the U.S.

We've covered all these trends and agree they heavily favor the U.S.  We also agree that the biggest issue facing the country is a dysfunctional government.  

It's a good article that's well worth reading.

As the chart below shows, GigaOm is projecting that there will be a bit over 8 billion global mobile subscriptions in 2015.  The UN is currently projecting global population in 2015 to be about 7.3 billion. 

 
Looking at the two sources, it looks like 2013 will be cross over year when global mobile subscriptions exceeds the world's population. 

BTW, I'm a big fan of GigaOm Pro.  The content is excellent.  I've been a paying subscriber since they started and it's a steal at $299 per year. 

I have to admit I don't know much about Feminist Theory, but based on what little I know I think the analogy is accurate.  Coworking was founded as a social movement.  The core values of coworking - collaboration, openness, community, accessibility and sustainability - reflect the social orientation of the movement founders and many of today's coworking adherents. 

But coworking has moved beyond the intial intent of the movement founders, and now includes a wide range of approaches, spaces and companies.  The Rise of Coworking, from the Economist, does an excellent job describing the spread of coworking to new areas, including large corporations.  I really like their definition of coworking: 

"The concept of co-working is elastic but at its broadest means working alongside, and often collaborating with, people you wouldn’t normally."

To us, this nicely defines Coworking 2.0 because it describes coworking as style of work instead of a place, and it's loose enough to allow for the growing diversity of the coworking ecosystem.     

Just as the 3rd wave of Feminism builds on the achievements of earlier waves but also embraces diversity and change, Coworking 2.0 is expanding on the success of the coworking movement while also broadening its reach and impact. 

For those not familiar with Makers, they are part of the new DIY movement of crafters, artisans, digital tinkerers and others interested in making and inventing things.  Most Makers are hobbyists, but a growing number are turning Pro and starting small, Maker-based businesses. 

TJ's post captures some of the exciting Maker Pro news from the last year.

TJ, who's become the go-to guy on the professional Maker movement, also has a regular column on Makers at Forbes, a newsletter for professional Makers and is working on a book. 

TJ is crowdsourcing the book via Kickstarter, a popular approach used by Makers to fund their projects.  I'm very excited by the book and one of the backers (I also want the t-shirt).  We consider the Maker movement a key component of the broader resurgence in small manufacturing. 

For more on the professional Maker movement, see the Intuit Future of Small Business research report Today's Hobbyists are Tomorrow's Hobbypreneurs, which we co-authored. 

Wearable computing is not a new trend. For decades computing devices designed to be attached to the human body have been available.  Most of have been targeted at health and fitness.  Workout related heart rate monitors, for example, have been around since the 1980s.  

A number of trends are coming together to drive the recent new wave of wearable computing.  These include cheaper yet more powerful computer chips and the growing use of analytical software to turn data streams into actionable information.  

But even more important is growing ubiquity of cell phones (sort of wearable computers in their own right) and wireless networks.  These allow wearable computers to be connected to the Internet and expose their data in real-time.  

Another driver is the success industry has had attaching computing devices to machines and packages.

One of my favorite industrial examples is SenseAware from FedEx.  SenseAware is a sensor pod that can be attached to packages.  It provides a shipment's exact location, precise package temperature readings, and information on whether or not a package has been opened or exposed to light.  It does this in real-time via the Internet.

It seems to me if we've reached the point where FedEx packages wear computers, humans can't be too far behind.  

BTW, the latest Mission Impossible movie features several wearable computing devices.  One is a really cool contact lens with amazing abilities.  However, it's still uncomfortable to wear.  

Part of the process of putting the list together is a review of past lists. 

Here are 4 key forecasting lessons we relearned through this review:

1.  The future doesn't change that often:  This is another way of saying the vast majority of trends take a long time to reach the mainstream.  What changes is the stage a trend is at.

For example, we consider the broad shift towards Mobile Computing starting in 1993 with Apple's failed Newton PDA.  Others will argue the trend is much older.  Either way the trend had been around quite a while in 2008 when we said it was "taking off" due to the iPhone's recent success and the expected 2008 release of Google's Android. 

Mobile Computing has been on our list every year since 2008 and will likely be on our lists for at least the next 5 years.   This year's lists covers the growing impact of smartphones, tablets and the Cloud. 

The overall trend hasn't changed, but the forms, impacts and importance of mobile computing have changed - and will continue to change. 

2.  Trends are easy, timing is hard:   Trendspotting isn't a difficult task.  Pretty much anyone who has an interest can become a proficient trend spotter.  The hard part is forecasting when a trend will have an impact and when it enters the mainstream.

One of my favorite examples is RFID and it's short range version NFC (see this post for a description of NFC and mobile payments).  I think the first "year of RFID" I remember is 2001.  I think the first "year of NFC" I remember was 2003.  Neither happened and both technologies have made steady progress since but neither really broke out.

Here we are about 10 years later and 2012 is being declared to be yet another "year of NFC."  This is because large banks, credit card companies and Google are pushing mobile payment systems based on NFC.  There's also rumors that the iPhone 5, due to be released this spring/summer, will include NFC technology. 

We like NFC, agree it will be a successful mobile payments technology and that 2012 will likely be a break out year for the technology (it's still several years from mainstream use).  But if you'd asked us in 2003 when NFC would have its breakout year, we would have said 2007 or 2008.  So we basically missed it by 5 years.

There are many, many more examples of trends - and especially technology trends - where the general consensus around their timing was way, way off. 

BTW, I think ability of Steve Jobs to know when a technology was ready for the market - and the market ready for a technology - was a key reason he was Steve Jobs.  I also think the difficulty associated with  forecast timing is one reason why people like Steve Jobs are so rare. 

3.  Follow the Money:  Trends that are supported by clear, logical and identifiable business models tend to be the most likely to be impactful.  This is true for most types of trends, but especially technology trends. 

The reason is pretty simple.  Trends supported by business models see greater levels of investment, which greatly increases the probability the trend will have an impact. 

Examining business models also helps a lot with forecasting the timing of trends.  Going back to Steve Jobs, the iPod was a huge success not because of its technology.  It was a huge success because the Internet matured to the point Apple could create the itunes store.  The store created a powerful business model that drove the iPod's success. 

4.  No one can predict the future:  But the process of trying is extremely valuable. 

Our overall economic outlook is for continued moderate growth with U.S. GDP increasing 2.5%-3.0%.  We expect hiring and the job market to improve, but unemployment will remain high and finish the year around 8%. 

Social Trends

1.  Being Human:  A trend that has rippled through our research the past couple of years - and especially in 2011 - is the growing dissatisfaction with our de-humanized world.  Corporate employees tell us they are tired of being cogs in the enterprise machine.  Independent workers tell us they highly value the work/life flexibility and control independence provides. Consumers tell us they are looking for authenticity and honesty from the companies they buy from.  People in general tell us they are focusing more (or would like to focus more) on human relationships with their families, friends, business associates and communities. 

Because of their size, scale and customer intimacy, small businesses are able to offer employees, business partners and customers stronger human-based relationships than large corporations.  2012 will see more small businesses recognize and take advantage of this key competitive advantage. 

2.  One is No Longer the Loneliest Number:  The Internet, online distributed work tools, social media and the growth of coworking are eliminating the loneliness and lack of social and business contact traditionally associated with working independently.  Telecommuters, home-based business people, road warriors and independent workers are increasingly using these tools and resources to “work alone together”.  This growing ability to network, collaborate and socialize is making independent work more attractive, and 2012 will see the trend towards independent work continue to grow. 

3.  Senior Independents:   Also driving the growth of independent workers is the increasing number of mature workers (those aged 55+) becoming independent (freelancers, consultants, temps, etc.).  Most of these older workers will choose independence because of the stimulation, freedom and flexibility it provides.  Others will become independent because they have no other job options, and/or financial pressure to continue working beyond traditional retirement age. 

4.  Loyalty Meets Daily Deals:  There’s a lot of debate about the merits of daily deals.  We think 2012 will see daily deals morph beyond shotgun-style attempts to bring in new business to more targeted methods and systems designed to attract, retain and reward loyal customers.  Part of this is simply the maturation of daily deal business processes and technology.  But a bigger part is the growing recognition by both deal companies and their small business customers that repeat business, not new business, is the key objective. 

Technology Trends

5.  Smartphones, Tablets and the Cloud Oh My!:  Smartphones, the Cloud and mobile computing have been on our top 10 lists in one form or another for years.  2012 is no exception and we expect mobile computing devices (smartphones and tablets) to substantially outsell traditional computers.  These cloud-supported devices are changing the way business is done and creating vast, new demand for apps, online video and audio, games, ebooks, magazines, newspapers, social networking – the list goes on and on.   2012 will see a growing number of small businesses embracing and leveraging these technologies. 

6.  The Empire Strikes Back with Big Data:  The rise of the Internet and ever cheaper information technology enabled even the smallest of businesses to look, act and compete like a large company.  Big Data – the collection, manipulation and analysis of large datasets – allows large companies to look, act and compete like a small business by using data and analytics to provide personalized products and services.  It also increases their ability to aggressively compete on price.  Amazon’s controversial smartphone-based Price Check app is just the beginning of larger corporations using data, analytics and mobile computing to attack small business markets. 

7.  Big Data Gets Small:  2012 will also see growing small business use of powerful yet inexpensive cloud-based data and analytical tools.  These tools will enable small businesses to organize, mine and analyze their data to improve their results.  In particular, the small business use of software and systems that combines and analyzes data from websites, customer purchases, marketing campaigns and social media activity will grow and greatly improve small business efficiency. 

Economic Trends

8.  The Rental Economy Expands:  We’ve long covered the growing use of variable cost business models.  Also called Collaborative Consumption, the concept behind the rental economy is to increase the efficiency of goods by providing them on a variable cost basis (sharing their use). 

Obviously this is not a new trend.  But the Rental Economy is rapidly expanding because the Internet, the Cloud and advanced analytics are enabling cost effective renting/sharing of a growing array of goods and services historically available primarily through ownership. 

9.  Location, Location, Location:  A range of trends that have been building for a long time are converging to make location a key small business issue in 2012.  These include the growing power of the buy local movement, the increasing use of location in social media, a continued focus on sustainability and local food, and the growing use of cell phone and cloud enabled location-based services.  We used to think the Internet made location less important.  It also makes location more important.

10.  It’s the Best of Times and the Worst of Times for Startups:    The maturation of the Internet and other technologies (genomics, clean tech, robotics, Big Data, etc.) is creating vast new opportunities. It’s also cheaper than ever to start and grow a company, venture funding is available, valuations are high, large companies are in acquisition mode and the IPO market is opening up.  In many ways, it’s never been as easy or rewarding to be a startup than it will be in 2012. 

But 2012 will also be a year of reckoning for many startups.  The last couple of years have produced almost a frenzy of new tech companies.  Many of these firms will need additional funding in 2012, and those not able to show strong customer traction will not be able to find it. 

A few days after we released our review, usability guru Jacob Nielsen released a scathing review.  His conclusion - Amazon's Kindle Fire offers a disappointingly poor user experience.  This caused a bit of stir on the Internet as Kindle supporters and naysayers duked it out.

I read Nielsen's review and found it accurate.  As we pointed out in our First Look, the UI and overall design are flawed.  I've experienced most of the problems Nielsen identifies - especially accidental activation.

I also follow his advice to use mobile sites whenever possible.  These make the Kindle user experience much, much better.  I also think it makes the mobile experience much better than my iPhone.

But despite all the issues with the Kindle, my usage continues to increase.  It's now my preferred electronic way to read magazines, books and newspapers (I really like the Fire version of the Wall Street Journal).  And it continues to grow on me as a mobile device.

As I said in my First Look review, I've been surprised how much I like the 7" form factor.  I thought it would be too small to be useful, but I really prefer it to using my iPhone for mobile computing.  It may be my age (and/or the age of my eyes), but my iPhone is simply too small for me.

So despite the flaws, my Kindle Fire will continues to be a productive addition to my computing family.  

For those considering the Fire, I suggest playing with one prior to buying.  Make sure you try it using standard websites as well as mobile websites.  The usability flaws are real, so if you can't easily adjust to them - or the 7 inch form factor - you should consider other options.

Happy Holidays to all.

Braddock, who is totally lost about what to do next with his life, is getting career advice from the friends of his parents. 

At one point a man walks up to Braddock and says "Plastics .... enough said", and walks away.

The intent of the reference is that Braddock should enter the plastics industry, a rapidly growing field with lots of opportunities. 

Instead of getting a job in plastics, Braddock has an affair with Mrs. Robinson, the much older wife of his father's business partner.  He also drives around northern California while Simon and Garfunkel music plays in the background. 

Eventually he decides he wants to marry Mrs. Robinson's daughter, which leads to a far-fetched ending.  But I digress.

Last week we held a workshop on data and analytics with our research partners at Intuit.  We had a mix of experts on data and analytics from both large and small organizations. 

There was a very clear consensus that there is a shortage of people with data and analytical skills  - and this shortage is going to get worse and last a long time. 

So my advice to those in school?  Data ... enough said.  Oh, and stay away from my wife.