Smart Politics

Minnesota and South Dakota Unemployment Rates Rise; Wisconsin Remains Flat

2009-11-20T06:00:43Z

After three consecutive months of a declining percentage of Minnesotans filing unemployment claims, the Gopher State's seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased to 7.6 percent in October - up from 7.4 percent in September.

Unemployment in Minnesota has increased 35.7 percent from one year ago (5.6 percent) but is currently 2.6 points lower than the national average of 10.2 percent.

The 2.6-point differential is the largest for Minnesota vis-à-vis the national average in more than 17 years (July 1992).

Across the Upper Midwest, the jobless situation continues to be less dire than when compared to the nation as a whole.

The jobless rate did increase 0.2 points in South Dakota as well - from 4.8 percent in September to 5.0 percent in October. Unemployment is up 56.3 percent in South Dakota for the year.

But South Dakota's unemployment rate is now 5.2 points lower than the national average - the largest differential on record according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data going back to January 1976.

In Wisconsin, unemployment remained flat from September to October at 8.4 percent. Unemployment has risen more quickly in Wisconsin than in any other Upper Midwestern state during the past year, where it is has increased 71.4 percent from October 2008 (4.9 percent).

Wisconsin's jobless rate is 1.8 points lower than that of the national average - the largest such difference since December 1996.

Unemployment data for the month of October will be released in Iowa and North Dakota during the next few days.

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Norm Ornstein to Speak at Humphrey Institute on Friday

2009-11-19T19:14:24Z

Roll Call columnist and American Enterprise Institute resident scholar Norm Ornstein will speak at the Humphrey Institute on Friday to review the Obama administration's wide-ranging policy initiatives and their progress in Congress as the political winds appears rady to shift.

A Report From Washington

Norm Ornstein, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Friday, Nov. 20, 2009
Noon - 1:15pm
Humphrey Forum, Humphrey Institute
301 19th Ave S., Minneapolis

Norman Ornstein is a long-time observer of Congress and politics. He writes a weekly column for Roll Call and is an election analyst for CBS News. He serves as codirector of the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project and participates in AEI's Election Watch series. He also serves as a senior counselor to the Continuity of Government Commission. Mr. Ornstein led a working group of scholars and practitioners that helped shape the law, known as McCain-Feingold, that reformed the campaign financing system. He was elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004. His many books include The Permanent Campaign and Its Future (AEI Press, 2000); the coauthored The Broken Branch: How Congress is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track (Oxford University Press, 2006); and, most recently, Vital Statistics on Congress 2008 (Brookings Institution Press, 2008), also coauthored.

This presentation is free and open to the public; registration is not required.

To Which US House Candidates Are Minnesota's Politicians Contributing?

2009-11-19T06:35:57Z

Tim Walz and 6th CD DFL Challengers Reed and Clark Receiving Early Support in 2009 from State's Politicians

Depending on the fundraising strategies pursued by and opportunities presented to U.S. House officeholders and candidates, some politicians seek to build their campaign warchests through individual contributions (e.g. Michele Bachmann, Keith Ellison) while others rely more heavily on Political Action Committee money (e.g. Collin Peterson, Jim Oberstar).

Receiving the financial support (and eventual endorsement) from fellow politicians and officeholders is particularly critical for new candidates, especially those vying for the party's nomination.

Although the 2010 election is still a year away, several former and current Minnesota politicians and other notables have already inserted themselves into the game, by contributing tens of thousands of dollars in itemized funds to the 2010 campaigns of U.S. House candidates.

These contributions have come from two former U.S. Senators, two former U.S. Representatives, five 2010 gubernatorial candidates, several state legislators, and local governmental officials across Minnesota.

Perhaps the most hotly contested U.S. House race in 2010 will be in the state's 6th Congressional District, where former Independence Party Lieutenant Gubernatorial nominee Maureen Reed and State Senator Tarryl Clark are battling for the right to challenge 2-term Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

A Smart Politics analysis of Federal Elections Commission data reveals that both Reed and Clark are receiving early contributions from former and current Minnesota politicians and other notables in the Gopher State.

Reed, who launched her campaign several months before Clark, has received some financial support from several notables:

· Former 6-term DFL U.S. Representative and 2002 Independence Party gubernatorial nominee Tim Penny contributed $1,000 to Reed back in June.
· Former 2006 DFL U.S. Senate candidate Ford Bell contributed $400 in September.
· 2008 3rd Congressional District Independence Party nominee David Dillon contributed $500 in August.
· DFL State Senator Steve Murphy (District 28) gave $250 in June.
· McLeod County Attorney Michael Junge gave $250 in September.
· Jim Pohlad, principal owner of the Minnesota Twins, contributed $2,400 to Reed in July. Jim's brother Robert gave $1,000 in June.

Tarryl Clark, who announced her candidacy in late July of this year, has also seen several notables donate money to her U.S. House campaign:

· Former DFL U.S. Senator and likely 2010 gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton gave $1,000 to Clark's campaign in August.
· DFL State Senator (and potential 3rd CD candidate) Terri Bonoff has contributed $700 so far this year.
· Former DFL Senate Majority Leader and 2002 gubernatorial nominee Roger Moe gave $500 in September.
· DFL State Senator Tony Lourey (District 08) contributed $2,400 in September.
· Special assistant to DFL U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar Christopher Pohlad contributed $1,250 in September.

Among the state's eight U.S. House members, Tim Walz has turned out the most money from the pocketbooks of notable Minnesotans from around the state:

· Former DFL U.S. Senator and likely 2010 gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton has given the $4,800 maximum already this year.
· Former Attorney General and 2006 DFL gubernatorial nominee Mike Hatch contributed $250 in June.
· Former DFL State Representative and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Matt Entenza gave $2,400 in March.
· Ramsey County Attorney and 2010 DFL gubernatorial hopeful Susan Gaertner gave $250 in June.
· Minneapolis City Council member Diane Hofstede contributed $750 in June.
· And a little-known Minnesotan named Garrison Keillor contributed $250 to Congressman Walz back in February.

Most other members of Minnesota's U.S. House delegation have also received political contributions from current or former politicians in the state:

Contributions to Betty McCollum:
· Former DFL State Senator and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Steve Kelly gave $250 in September. (McCollum has endorsed Kelly for Governor).
· DFL State Representative and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Paul Thissen contributed $250 in February.
· Minneapolis City Council member Diane Hofstede contributed $500 in September.

Contributions to John Kline:
· Former Republican U.S. Senator Rudy Boschwitz contributed $500 in September.

Contributions to Collin Peterson:
· Former DFL Senate Majority Leader and 2002 gubernatorial nominee Roger Moe gave $250 in June.

Contributions to Erik Paulsen:
· Former 6-term GOP Congressman Vin Weber contributed $500 to Paulsen in September.
· Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Tim Pawenty Bob Schroeder gave $500 in May.

Contributions to Keith Ellison:
· Minneapolis City Council member Diane Hofstede has contributed $350 in 2009.

Contributions to Jim Oberstar:
· Maple Grove Mayor Mark Steffenson gave $250 in January.
· Renville County Commissioner Bob Fox gave $250 in January.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who Smart Politics has noted for receiving the most small donor funds in the state, and being the least reliant on PAC money, has received no money from notable Minnesota politicians thus far this year.

Note: To clarify, the above data does not include committee contributions or individual contributions tallying less than $200 for the election cycle to date, only large donor ($200+) itemized contributions. For example, Tarryl Clark received an additional $5,000 last quarter from the campaign committees of Congressmen Jim Oberstar ($2,000), Collin Peterson ($2,000), and Keith Ellison ($1,000) (as well as $1,000 from Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots Fund).

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How Common Is Military Service in the Biographies of Minnesota's U.S. Representatives?

2009-11-18T06:13:19Z

More than Twice As Many Republican U.S. House Members from Minnesota Have Had Military Service than DFLers Since Merger in 1944

Dr. Maureen Hackett, a forensic psychiatrist who served three years overseas as a psychiatrist in the United States Air Force, announced her candidacy on Tuesday for the DFL nomination to challenge Republican Erik Paulsen in the state's 3rd Congressional District in 2010.

Dr. Hackett was a Major in the U.S. Air Force from 1991-1994, where, according to her CV, her duties included "Treating active duty and their family and also completing evaluations directed by commanders in the field to answer questions regarding the ability of military personnel to perform their duties."

If Hackett should win the nomination next year, she would be the second consecutive DFL nominee with military experience to try to capture the Gopher State's 3rd District seat.

Last year, Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia fell 7.6 points shy of victory in what many Democrats hoped would be a repeat of DFLer Tim Walz's 2006 victory over six-term Representative Gil Gutknecht in the 1st CD. (Walz had served in the Nebraska and Minnesota National Guards from 1981 through 2005).

Will Dr. Hackett's military service play a key role in her attempt to win back the 3rd Congressional District for the DFL for the first time in more than 50 years? (DFLer Roy Wier last won the 3rd CD back in 1958).

A Smart Politics analysis of the 48 Minnesotans elected to the U.S. House since the DFL merger in 1944 finds 35 percent (17) have served in the military, according to biographical information culled from the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress.

And of the 19 men and women from Minnesota who have been elected to the House of Representatives since 1982 only 4 have had such service: Jim Ramstad (in the Army Reserve), Collin Peterson (in the Army National Guard), John Kline (in the U.S. Marine Corps), and Tim Walz (in the Nebraska and Minnesota National Guards).

The Republican Party, particularly since the Reagan administration, is generally viewed by the American public as the party most supportive of a strong military and national defense. The Democratic Party has made a concerted effort since 2006 to recruit U.S. House candidates with military experience, with the nation currently involved in two wars overseas.

In Minnesota, Republican members of the U.S. House delegation have been much more likely to have served in the military than their DFL counterparts.

Since the DFL merger, more than twice as many Republican officeholders have served in the military (12) than DFLers (5). Overall, 46.2 percent of Republicans (12 of 26) elected to the U.S. House during that span have had military service compared to just 22.7 percent of DFLers (5 of 22).

If Dr. Hackett should win the DFL nomination and eventually upset the extremely well-funded Paulsen, she would be the fourth female to win such a post from Minnesota and the first with military experience.

Military Service for Minnesotans Elected to the U.S. House Since the DFL Merger, 1944-2008

Representative	Party	District	Service
Erik Paulsen	GOP	3	None
Keith Ellison	DFL	5	None
Michele Bachmann	GOP	6	None
Tim Walz	DFL	1	NE, MN National Guards (1981-2005)
John Kline	GOP	2	Marine Corps (1969-1994)
Betty McCollum	DFL	4	None
Collin Peterson	DFL	7	Army National Guard (1963-1969)
Jim Oberstar	DFL	8	None
Jim Ramstad	GOP	3	Army Reserve (1968-1975)
Gil Gutknecht	GOP	1	None
Martin Olav Sabo	DFL	5	None
Mark R. Kennedy	GOP	2,6	None
Bill Luther	DFL	6	None
David Minge	DFL	2	None
Bruce F. Vento	DFL	4	None
Tim Penny	DFL	1	None
Rod Grams	GOP	6	None
Vin Weber	GOP	2	None
Gerry Sikorski	DFL	6	None
Bill Frenzel	GOP	3	Naval Reserve (1951-1954)
Arlan Stangeland	GOP	7	None
Arlen Erdahl	GOP	1	Army (1954-1956)
Tom Hagedorn	GOP	2	Navy (1961)
Richard Nolan	DFL	6	None
Al Quie	GOP	1	Navy (1943-1945)
Bob Bergland	DFL	7	None
Joseph E. Karth	DFL	4	Army (WWII)
Ancher Nelsen	GOP	2	None
John M. Zwach	GOP	6	None
John A. Blatnik	DFL	8	Army Air Corps (1942-1946)
Clark MacGregor	GOP	3	Army (1942-1945)
Odin Langen	GOP	7	None
Alec G. Olson	DFL	6	None
Walter H. Judd	GOP	5	Army (1918-1919), Officers' Reserve Corps (1919-1924)
Fred Marshall	DFL	6	None
H. Carl Andersen	GOP	7	None
Roy W. Wier	DFL	3	Army (WWI)
August H. Andresen	GOP	1	Minnesota Home Guard (1918-1919)
Joseph P. O'Hara	GOP	2	Officers' Reserve Corps (1917-1919)
Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	4	None
Coya Knutson	DFL	9	None
Harold C. Hagen	GOP	9	None
George MacKinnon	GOP	3	Navy (1942-1946)
Edward J. Devitt	GOP	4	Navy (1942-1946)
Harold Knutson	GOP	6	None
William J. Gallagher	DFL	3	None
Frank T. Starkey	DFL	4	None
William A. Pittenger	GOP	8	None

Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives.

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Is Norm Coleman Truly the GOP Preference for Its 2010 Gubernatorial Nominee?

2009-11-17T06:24:54Z

Early Poll, Though Omitting Candidates, Suggests Coleman's Wait-And-See Approach Is Working

A new Rasmussen poll of 330 likely Republican primary voters in the Gopher State finds 50 percent want former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman to be their nominee.

Or do they?

To the chagrin of several candidates running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, not all Republican Party hopefuls were listed in the Rasmussen polling question (which was conducted on November 10th).

In fact, two of the four names listed in the survey have given no official indication they are even going to be running in the gubernatorial race: Norm Coleman and State Representative Laura Brod (though neither Coleman nor Brod have completely closed the door on such a run).

In the new poll, 50 percent cited Coleman as their preference, with 11 percent naming former House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert, 5 percent preferring Brod, and 1 percent supporting State Representative Tom Emmer - the only four choices given to respondents. Twenty-six percent were unsure.

That left off candidates such as former State Auditor Pat Anderson, State Senator David Hann, former State Representative David Haas, as well as long-shot candidates Phil Herwig and Leslie Davis.

Although Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer have alternately fared well in various straw polls conducted throughout the state this year, no doubt name recognition played a significant factor in Coleman being the apparent preference of Republicans at this early stage in the 2010 race in the Rasmussen poll.

And as for Coleman's potential 2010 run?

During his concession speech for the U.S. Senate race on June 30th, Coleman stated he would make an announcement on his plans shortly after the July 4th weekend.

But no announcement came.

After more than three weeks of silence from the Coleman camp, on the evening of July 26th Smart Politics outlined several reasons why it was not in Coleman's interest to announce his 2010 plans at this early stage:

· First, announcing too early would emphasize Coleman's 'career politician' image and smack of desperation coming out of the 2008 contest.
· Secondly, launching a gubernatorial campaign so soon after his Senate bid ended would not be the most prudent way to re-approach donors and kick off a fundraising campaign, after recently asking them to contribute several millions of dollars during his Senate reelection bid and recount efforts.
· Third, with former Congressman Jim Ramstad out of the running, Coleman could bide his time knowing he would be by far the biggest name in the GOP race and have virtually no competition from the left side of the party for the nomination.
· Fourthly, in an effort to shed the 'professional politician' moniker to the greatest extent possible, it was in Coleman's interest to make it seem as if he is being 'recruited' to run for governor. Poll results like Rasmussen's give Coleman just that.

The day after the Smart Politics blog was posted, on July 27th, Coleman's spokesperson said the former Senator would likely wait until March or April 2010 to announce his plans, seemingly following the Smart Politics strategy to a 'T'. (No, Smart Politics does not have a mole in the Coleman camp).

In the meantime, it is clear the announced GOP candidates are not going to be paralyzed by Coleman's mysterious intentions - appearances are ramping up for the Republican hopefuls, as the field begins to narrow (State Senator Mike Jungbauer and State Representative Paul Kohls have dropped out of the race in recent weeks).

Whether or not Coleman will ultimately have 50+ percent of the support of the GOP electorate across the state by the time the Republican primary takes place remains to be seen, but the Rasmussen poll suggests there is little harm in the Senator's wait-and-see strategy for the moment.

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Bachmann vs Franken in 2014: A Dream Matchup?

2009-11-16T02:00:41Z

Scenario could also be best chance for 3rd party revival in Gopher State

With all apologies to those who believe any analysis of the 2012 presidential election is still too premature, a newly released Rasmussen poll measuring the job performance of some members of the Minnesota congressional delegation raises an interesting hypothetical scenario for the Gopher State's 2014 U.S. Senate race.

The Rasmussen poll of 1,000 likely voters is the first to take the temperature of Minnesotans across the state regarding their views toward controversial 6th Congressional District Republican Representative Michele Bachmann.

Although she only represents one-eighth of the state in D.C., Congresswoman Bachmann notched a 51 percent approval rating from Minnesotans, with 45 percent disapproving of her job performance.

As a further sign of how much Bachmann has become a star within the Republican Party and increasingly visible to all Minnesotans (and the country) - aided by her frequent media appearances - only 4 percent of likely Gopher State voters did not have an opinion about Representative Bachmann's job performance, even though 87 percent of the state is not represented by her in Congress.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted on November 10th, also measured the approval rating of new U.S. Senator, DFLer Al Franken. A nearly identical 50 percent of likely voters approved of the job Franken is doing as Senator with 45 percent disapproving.

The double-take identical job ratings Minnesotans give Bachmann and Franken are further evidence of the schizophrenic nature of the Gopher State electorate (which has failed to elect a DFLer to the governor's mansion in nearly a quarter-century, but has the longest streak in the nation for voting Democratic in presidential elections).

Bachmann is one of the most conservative members of the U.S. House, and reviled by many on the left, while Franken is considered to be in the liberal wing of the Democratic Party (with a name that brings shivers to the spine of Minnesota Republicans, not to mention leading national conservatives, such as Bill O'Reilly of FOX News).

What is particularly interesting about the new poll results is that a higher percentage of the (Democratic-leaning) statewide electorate currently approves of Bachmann's job performance than the percentage of residents in the state's most conservative congressional district who voted her into office for a second term last November (46 percent).

Of course, Bachmann's viability as a statewide candidate in 2014 is likely contingent on her surviving the fierce, well-funded challenges by the DFL for her House seat in 2010 and, if she wins a third term, for her newly-drawn district after redistricting in 2012.

As for Franken, who won only 42 percent of the vote in his 2008 challenge of Republican Norm Coleman, he will face the task in 2014 of running with an actual record (although Coleman's camp made a strong effort last year to highlight (controversial) statements made by Franken prior to his becoming a Senatorial candidate).

And for those Minnesotans who thought the Franken-Coleman contest was particularly brutal, negative, and costly - consider what a Bachmann-Franken matchup would look like.

Although made out to be quite partisan by Franken supporters and the liberal blogosphere, Norm Coleman was actually one of the most ideologically moderate Republicans in the U.S. Senate during his last four years in D.C.

As such, the ideological distance between Bachmann and Franken is much greater than it is between Coleman and Franken, and the troops would be even more fired up on both the left and the right if such a matchup would come about in five years.

As a result, this hypothetical Bachmann-Franken scenario would likely provide a serious opening for a third party candidate to make a strong run for the seat.

The Franken-Coleman battle enabled Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley to notch the largest third party vote in a Minnesota U.S. Senate election (15.2 percent) since the DFL merger in 1944.

Assuming the Independence Party will still have major party status three election cycles from now, a viable, moderate candidate could have a real chance to win over a good chunk of the state's independent voters (who comprise approximately 25 to 30 percent of the Minnesota electorate) as well as peel away conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans from the Franken and Bachmann camps respectively.

But it's not 2014 yet.

And, in the meantime, Minnesota will hold a little something called the 2010 gubernatorial election plus 16 U.S. House races and another U.S. Senate race in 2012. Those races should provide Smart Politics with plenty of news to keep 2014 (mostly) off the radar.

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Bachmann and Paulsen Are Biggest Fundraisers in 5 of Minnesota's 8 Congressional Districts in 2009

2009-11-12T06:11:34Z

Bachmann, Paulsen, and Kline Outraising DFLers by Nearly $30,000 in DFL Districts and by More Than $600,000 in GOP Districts

A Smart Politics analysis of 2009 Federal Elections Commission (FEC) data through the first three quarters of 2009 finds that Republican U.S. Representatives Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen are not simply raising the most in-state funds among their Gopher State U.S. House colleagues, but they are garnering a significant amount of money in DFL territory.

Paulsen and Bachmann have not only raised the most money within their own districts (the 3rd and the 6th respectively), but Bachmann has raised the most money in Betty McCollum's 4th CD and Paulsen has received the the most funds in Keith Ellison's 5th CD and Jim Oberstar's 8th CD.

The Republican delegation overall is thoroughly dominating the DFLers in terms of itemized individual contributions. Bachmann, Paulsen, and John Kline have outraised Tim Walz, Betty McCollum, Keith Ellison, Collin Peterson, and Jim Oberstar in the state's 5 DFL districts by nearly $30,000 ($259,059 to $230,493) and by a nearly 7:1 margin in their three GOP districts ($722,315 to $107,520).

Paulsen has raised the most itemized individual funds among the delegation from in-state ($461,979) as well as within his own district ($283,350). Paulsen's 3rd CD is the wealthiest in the state, with a median household income north of $76,000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2008 American Community Survey.

Bachmann has raised the second largest amount of funds in-state, at $301,355, and the $67,050 she raised in her 6th congressional district is the second highest amount of in-district funds raised by the state's U.S. House delegation.

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 6th CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Michele Bachmann	$67,050	51.8
2	John Kline	$23,550	18.2
3	Erik Paulsen	$14,300	11.1
4	Tim Walz	$10,300	8.0
5	Betty McCollum	$5,835	4.5
6	Collin Peterson	$5,300	4.1
7	Jim Oberstar	$2,750	2.1
8	Keith Ellison	$300	0.2
	Total	$129,385	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Representative Bachmann's fundraising has been the most consistent across the state this year, as she is the only U.S. Representative to rank among the Top 3 in fundraising in each of the Gopher State's eight districts.

Bachmann was also the only U.S. member from Minnesota to raise at least $1,000 in each of the eight districts. In fact, Bachmann raised more than $4,500 in every district.

Congresswoman Bachmann also raised the most money in the 4th Congressional District, with $48,095, or 29.3 percent of all money collected by the Minnesota delegation. DFLer Betty McCollum, who represents the 4th CD, only raised the third most money in her own district ($25,075), behind Bachmann and Paulsen ($38,500).

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 4th CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Michele Bachmann	$48,095	29.3
2	Erik Paulsen	$38,500	23.5
3	Betty McCollum	$25,075	15.3
4	John Kline	$22,750	13.9
5	Tim Walz	$19,150	11.7
6	Jim Oberstar	$5,092	3.1
7	Collin Peterson	$4,036	2.5
8	Keith Ellison	$1,300	0.8
	Total	$163,998	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Paulsen, meanwhile, raised more money in his 3rd CD ($296,600) than all seven other Representatives raised in their own districts combined with more than $60,000 to spare ($232,695).

Paulsen has also raised more of his total campaign funds in 2009 from in-district itemized individual contributions (33.1 percent) than any member of the U.S. House from Minnesota (with Walz being the next closest at 11.4 percent).

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 3rd CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Erik Paulsen	$296,600	53.8
2	Michele Bachmann	$109,725	19.9
3	John Kline	$80,600	14.6
4	Tim Walz	$38,150	6.9
5	Keith Ellison	$9,200	1.7
6	Betty McCollum	$9,135	1.7
7	Jim Oberstar	$4,250	0.8
8	Collin Peterson	$3,500	0.6
	Total	$551,160	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

As reported here Monday at Smart Politics, Paulsen also raised more than 4 times as much money as Keith Ellison in Ellison's own 5th Congressional District - a district that has accounted for the second largest amount of itemized individual contributions thus far in 2009 at north of $200,000.

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 5th CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Erik Paulsen	$58,364	27.8
2	Tim Walz	$57,570	27.4
3	Michele Bachmann	$29,245	13.9
4	John Kline	$26,315	12.5
5	Betty McCollum	$16,325	7.8
6	Keith Ellison	$13,400	6.4
7	Jim Oberstar	$8,600	4.1
8	Collin Peterson	$250	0.1
	Total	$210,069	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Paulsen earns his hat trick in the 8th Congressional District, where the total funds raised across all representatives was less than 1/20th of the money coming from the 3rd CD. Paulsen leads the way through the first three quarters with 30.4 percent of all large donor contributions, with the district's Representative, DFLer Jim Oberstar, in second at 22.4 percent.

Oberstar has raised over $600,000 thus far in 2009, but only 0.9 percent of this amount ($5,750) comes in the form of in-district itemized individual contributions.

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 8th CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Erik Paulsen	$7,800	30.4
2	Jim Oberstar	$5,750	22.4
3	Michele Bachmann	$5,615	21.9
4	Betty McCollum	$2,300	9.0
5	Tim Walz	$2,250	8.8
6	Keith Ellison	$1,000	3.9
7	John Kline	$950	3.7
8	Collin Peterson	$0	0.0
	Total	$25,665	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

The three districts in which Bachmann or Paulsen have not raised the most money are the 1st, 2nd, and 7th.

In the 1st, Representative Tim Walz has taken in 73.5 percent of all large donor funds raised - the largest percentage of in-district money to any representative. The district as a whole, however, has contributed just 5.5 percent ($72,320) of all in-state large donor money for the year to date.

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 1st CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Tim Walz	$53,145	73.5
2	Michele Bachmann	$6,575	9.1
3	John Kline	$5,750	8.0
4	Erik Paulsen	$4,500	6.2
5	Collin Peterson	$1,100	1.5
6	Betty McCollum	$1,000	1.4
7	Jim Oberstar	$250	0.3
8	Keith Ellison	$0	0.0
	Total	$72,320	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

John Kline's 2nd district has contributed nearly $150,000 in large donor funds, with Kline himself the recipient of 38.9 percent of that amount. Overall, 87.4 percent of such contributions were directed to the state's three GOP representatives - Kline, Paulsen (28.1 percent), and Bachmann (20.4 percent).

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 2nd CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	John Kline	$58,125	38.9
2	Erik Paulsen	$41,915	28.1
3	Michele Bachmann	$30,450	20.4
4	Betty McCollum	$7,450	5.0
5	Tim Walz	$5,050	3.4
6	Keith Ellison	$4,800	3.2
7	Jim Oberstar	$1,500	1.0
8	Collin Peterson	$0	0.0
	Total	$149,290	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Finally, Collin Peterson's 7th Congressional district, which has the lowest average household income in the state, is responsible for just 1.3 percent of the state's large donor contributions to its eight U.S. Representatives. Peterson has received 59 percent of these funds ($10,150).

Individual Itemized Contributions Raised in Minnesota's 7th CD, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Collin Peterson	$10,150	59.0
2	Michele Bachmann	$4,600	26.7
3	Keith Ellison	$1,000	5.8
4	Tim Walz	$900	5.2
5	Betty McCollum	$300	1.7
6	Jim Oberstar	$250	1.5
7	John Kline	$0	0.0
7	Erik Paulsen	$0	0.0
	Total	$17,200	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, 40.1 percent of the in-state large donor money sent to the eight U.S. House members has been directed to the Representative of that resident's district ($529,295 of $1,319,387).

Still, for half of the members of Minnesota's U.S. House delegation, the district from which they have raised the most money to date this year is not the district they represented in Congress:

· Tim Walz has raised more money in the 5th CD ($57,570) than in his 1st CD ($53,145).
· John Kline has raised more money in the 3rd CD ($80,600) than in his home 2nd CD ($58,125).
· Likewise, Michele Bachmann has received more money from the 3rd CD ($109,725) than from her 6th CD ($67,050).
· Jim Oberstar has raised more money from the 5th CD ($8,600) than from his 8th CD ($5,750).

The strong fundraising by the GOP delegation so far this year is both a sign of strength of their campaigns heading into the 2010 elections, but also a reminder that they represent the most vulnerable districts in the Gopher State.

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What Cities Give the Most Money to Minnesota's U.S. Representatives?

2009-11-11T07:01:42Z

One Tiny Minnesota Suburb Is Responsible for More than 10 Percent of All In State Large Donor Funds Contributed to the State's Eight U.S. House Members

Where do Minnesota's U.S. House members get the biggest bang for their buck when looking to build their campaign warchests? Minneapolis? St. Paul?

Think smaller. Much smaller.

According to a Smart Politics analysis of Federal Elections Commission data for the first three quarters of 2009, the small, affluent western suburb of Wayzata has contributed more money per capita to the campaigns of the state's eight U.S. Representatives this year than any other city in the Gopher State.

Despite having a population of slightly over 4,000 as of the 2000 U.S. Census, Wayzata residents have contributed more money in 2009 than any other Minnesota city with the exception of Minneapolis.

Wayzata residents have given $149,050 in itemized individual contributions through September, compared to $193,719 for Minneapolis - which has approximately 100 times more residents.

When examining the amount of contributions per capita, Wayzata has given $36.24 per resident, compared to $0.51 for Minneapolis, or a 71 times higher rate for the wealthy suburb.

In terms of total large donor ($200+) individual contributions, Wayzatians have given nearly $50,000 more to the state's eight U.S. Representatives than the residents of St. Paul ($104,050) - or a 101 times higher rate per resident than the Gopher State's second largest city ($0.36).

Overall, Wazayta has contributed 11.3 percent of the $1.3 million in large donor contributions that have been sent to Minnesota's U.S. House delegation from across the state, despite the city having just 0.08 percent of the state's population.

And which officeholders are the beneficiaries of this inordinate amount of campaign financing coming from this small town of 4,000+ residents?

More than half of the money from Wayzatians ($85,050) has been directed to the campaign of that town's U.S. Representative, Republican Erik Paulsen. Overall, 87.9 percent of Wayzata resident's contributions have gone to the state's three GOP Representatives (with Michele Bachmann receiving $26,450 and John Kline getting $19,500).

The state's five DFL U.S. Representatives combined have received less money from Wayzatians ($18,050) than Kline's third place tally.

Itemized Individual Contributions to Minnesota's U.S. Representatives from Wayzata Residents, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Contributions	Percent
1	Erik Paulsen	$85,050	57.1
2	Michele Bachmann	$26,450	17.7
3	John Kline	$19,500	13.1
4	Tim Walz	$12,550	8.4
5	Betty McCollum	$3,750	2.5
6	Keith Ellison	$1,250	0.8
7	Jim Oberstar	$500	0.3
8	Collin Peterson	0	0.0
	Total	$149,050	100.0

Sources: Federal Elections Commission and U.S. Census (2000). Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Rounding out the Top 5 cities in terms of per resident contributions in the Gopher State is the small town of Woodstock in Pipestone County ($29.55 per resident), the small Twin Cities suburbs of Excelsior ($19.89) and Lilydale ($16.01), and the city of Lakeland in Washington County ($13.04).

Excelsior, despite having a population of less than 3,000, has seen its residents give more than $47,000 to Minnesota's U.S. House delegation this year - good for the sixth highest total funds from any city across the state. Excelsior does not rank even in the Top 110 cities in the Gopher State in terms of population.

The other Top 10 cities in terms of total large donor contributions are Edina (#4, $93,350), Eden Prairie (#5, $85,650), Prior Lake (#7, $35,550), Burnsville (#8, $33,900), Minnetonka (#9, $29,450), and Woodbury (#10, $26,635).

And as for Minneapolis, the state's largest (and overwhelmingly Democratic) city, 54.8 percent of large donor money ($106,174) was directed towards the three GOP members of Congress - 26.2 percent to Paulsen, 15.0 percent to Bachmann, and 13.6 percent to Kline. DFLer Tim Walz collected the most money ($52,170, or 26.9 percent), with 7.9 percent to Betty McCollum and just 6.1 percent to Keith Ellison ($11,750), who represents the city as part of the 5th Congressional District.

Ellison's lack of fundraising within his own district was profiled earlier this week at Smart Politics.

Itemized Individual Contributions to Minnesota's U.S. Representatives from Minneapolis Residents, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Contributions	Percent
1	Tim Walz	$52,170	26.9
2	Erik Paulsen	$50,814	26.2
3	Michele Bachmann	$29,045	15.0
4	John Kline	$26,315	13.6
5	Betty McCollum	$15,275	7.9
6	Keith Ellison	$11,750	6.1
7	Jim Oberstar	$8,100	4.2
8	Collin Peterson	$250	0.1
	Total	$193,719	100.0

Sources: Federal Elections Commission and U.S. Census (2000). Table compiled by Smart Politics.

There were several large Minnesota cities whose residents have been noticeably disengaged from political campaign giving so far this year - such as Austin ($200 for the year to date, or $0.01 per resident), Albert Lea ($250; $0.01), Owatonna ($250; $0.01), Fridley ($250; $0.01), Savage ($300; $0.01), Shakopee ($300; $0.02), Blaine ($1,000; $0.02), and Duluth ($2,250; $0.03).

Per Capita Itemized Individual Contributions by City to Minnesota's U.S. Representatives, January-September 2009

Rank	City	Contributions	Population	Per Resident
1	Wayzata	$149,050	4,113	$36.24
2	Woodstock	$3,900	132	$29.55
3	Excelsior	$47,600	2,393	$19.89
4	Lilydale	$8,836	552	$16.01
5	Lakeland	$25,000	1,917	$13.04
6	Crystal Bay	$6,800	607	$11.20
7	Long Lake	$17,350	1,842	$9.42
8	Welch	$5,250	697	$7.53
9	Onamia	$5,600	847	$6.61
10	Nerstrand	$1,390	233	$5.97
11	Sunfish Lake	$3,000	504	$5.95
12	Viking	$500	92	$5.43
13	Peterson	$1,250	269	$4.65
14	Minnetonka Beach	$2,500	614	$4.07
15	Hartland	$1,000	288	$3.47
16	Marine on St. Croix	$1,850	602	$3.07
17	Minnetrista	$11,100	4,358	$2.55
18	Deerwood	$1,500	590	$2.54
19	Perley	$300	121	$2.48
20	Waconia	$16,800	6,814	$2.47
21	Cass Lake	$2,000	860	$2.33
22	Morton	$1,000	442	$2.26
23	Prior Lake	$35,550	15,917	$2.23
24	Sturgeon Lake	$700	347	$2.02
25	Orono	$14,875	7,538	$1.97
25	Edina	$93,350	47,425	$1.97
27	Garfield	$500	281	$1.78
28	Kimball	$1,100	635	$1.73
29	Eden Prairie	$85,650	54,901	$1.56
30	Medina	$5,900	4,005	$1.47
31	Dellwood	$1,500	1,033	$1.45
32	Rice	$1,000	711	$1.41
33	Deephaven	$5,050	3,853	$1.31
34	North Oaks	$5,000	3,883	$1.29
35	Lake Elmo	$8,800	6,863	$1.28
36	Center City	$735	582	$1.26
37	Victoria	$4,800	4,025	$1.19
37	Sabin	$500	421	$1.19
39	Donnelly	$300	254	$1.18
40	Erskine	$500	437	$1.14
41	Becker	$3,030	2,673	$1.13
42	Okabena	$200	185	$1.08
43	Clarkfield	$1,000	944	$1.06
44	Woodland	$500	480	$1.04
45	Beaver Creek	$250	250	$1.00
46	Anoka	$16,650	18,076	$0.92
47	Sleepy Eye	$3,085	3,515	$0.88
48	Mound	$8,120	9,435	$0.86
49	Champlin	$18,800	22,193	$0.85
50	Red Wing	$12,850	16,116	$0.80
51	Lake Lillian	$200	257	$0.78
52	Alden	$500	652	$0.77
52	Stillwater	$11,600	15,143	$0.77
54	Green Isle	$250	334	$0.75
55	Battle Lake	$500	686	$0.73
56	Rogers	$2,550	3,588	$0.71
57	Glenville	$500	720	$0.69
58	Maple Plain	$1,400	2,088	$0.67
59	Tonka Bay	$1,000	1,547	$0.65
60	Ashby	$300	472	$0.64
61	Ada	$1,050	1,657	$0.63
62	Golden Valley	$12,350	20,281	$0.61
63	Coon Rapids	$1,850	3,211	$0.58
64	Fisher	$250	435	$0.57
64	Minnetonka	$29,450	51,301	$0.57
64	Woodbury	$26,635	46,463	$0.57
67	Burnsville	$33,900	60,220	$0.56
68	Mahtomedi	$4,100	7,563	$0.54
69	Minneapolis	$193,719	382,618	$0.51
70	Franklin	$250	498	$0.50
70	Mendota Heights	$5,700	11,434	$0.50
72	Granite Falls	$1,000	2,025	$0.49
72	St. Peter	$4,800	9,747	$0.49
74	Glyndon	$500	1,049	$0.48
75	Bethel	$210	443	$0.47
75	White Bear Lake	$11,350	24,325	$0.47
77	Prinsburg	$200	458	$0.44
78	Crosby	$1,000	2,299	$0.43
78	Maple Lake	$700	1,633	$0.43
80	North Mankato	$5,000	11,798	$0.42
80	Mankato	$13,370	32,427	$0.41
82	Greenwood	$300	729	$0.41
82	Perham	$1,000	2,559	$0.39
84	Goodhue	$300	778	$0.39
84	Falcon Heights	$2,125	5,572	$0.38
84	Starbuck	$500	1,314	$0.38
87	St. Paul	$104,050	287,151	$0.36
87	Plainview	$1,150	3,190	$0.36
87	Kandiyohi	$200	555	$0.36
87	Hopkins	$6,150	17,145	$0.36
87	Independence	$1,150	3,236	$0.36
92	Roseville	$11,720	33,690	$0.35
93	Elbow Lake	$400	1,275	$0.31
94	Sartell	$2,900	9,641	$0.30
94	Winona	$8,000	27,069	$0.30
96	Arden Hills	$2,800	9,652	$0.29
96	Twin Valley	$250	865	$0.29
96	Delano	$1,105	3,837	$0.29
99	Rochester	$24,150	85,806	$0.28
99	Circle Pines	$1,300	4,663	$0.28
99	Sherburn	$300	1,082	$0.28
102	Eden Valley	$100	366	$0.27
103	Plymouth	$17,300	65,894	$0.26
104	St. Michael	$2,300	9,099	$0.25
104	Chisago City	$650	2,622	$0.25
106	Chanhassen	$4,950	20,321	$0.24
106	Avon	$300	1,242	$0.24
106	Isanti	$550	2,324	$0.24
109	New Prague	$1,050	4,559	$0.23
109	St. Augusta	$700	3,065	$0.23
109	Northfield	$3,900	17,147	$0.23
112	Afton	$625	2,839	$0.22
113	Rosemount	$3,100	14,619	$0.21
113	Bird Island	$250	1,195	$0.21
113	Forest Lake	$3,000	14,440	$0.21
116	Stacy	$250	1,278	$0.20
117	Maple Grove	$9,485	50,365	$0.19
118	Dundas	$100	547	$0.18
118	St. Cloud	$10,670	59,107	$0.18
118	Hugo	$1,135	6,363	$0.18
121	Montrose	$200	1,143	$0.17
121	Hector	$200	1,166	$0.17
121	Hastings	$3,075	18,201	$0.17
121	Cold Spring	$500	2,975	$0.17
125	Dayton	$750	4,686	$0.16
125	Waseca	$1,350	8,493	$0.16
125	Pequot Lakes	$150	947	$0.16
125	Canby	$300	1,903	$0.16
125	Bloomington	$13,280	85,172	$0.16
130	Ivanhoe	$100	679	$0.15
130	Minnesota Lake	$100	681	$0.15
130	Warroad	$250	1,722	$0.15
133	Gilbert	$250	1,847	$0.14
134	Belgrade	$100	750	$0.13
134	Buffalo	$1,300	10,097	$0.13
136	Hinckley	$150	1,291	$0.12
137	Long Prairie	$300	3,040	$0.10
137	Andover	$2,590	26,588	$0.10
137	Elk River	$1,575	16,447	$0.10
140	Walker	$100	1,069	$0.09
140	Lino Lakes	$1,550	16,791	$0.09
140	Spring Grove	$115	1,304	$0.09
140	Lakeville	$3,800	43,128	$0.09
140	Chatfield	$100	1,137	$0.09
145	Wyoming	$250	3,048	$0.08
145	Moorhead	$2,600	32,177	$0.08
145	Ham Lake	$1,000	12,710	$0.08
145	Centerville	$250	3,202	$0.08
149	Roseau	$200	2,756	$0.07
149	Zumbrota	$200	2,789	$0.07
149	Byron	$250	3,500	$0.07
149	Apple Valley	$3,225	45,527	$0.07
149	Zimmerman	$200	2,851	$0.07
149	Detroit Lakes	$500	7,348	$0.07
149	Inver Grove Heights	$2,000	29,751	$0.07
149	East Grand Forks	$500	7,501	$0.07
149	Eagan	$4,150	63,557	$0.07
158	St. Louis Park	$2,800	44,126	$0.06
158	Faribault	$1,300	20,818	$0.06
158	Princeton	$230	3,933	$0.06
158	Monticello	$460	7,868	$0.06
162	Oak Park Heights	$200	3,957	$0.05
162	Maplewood	$1,700	34,947	$0.05
162	Oakdale	$1,292	26,653	$0.05
162	Shoreview	$1,250	25,924	$0.05
162	New Brighton	$1,050	22,206	$0.05
162	Stewartville	$250	5,411	$0.05
162	Glencoe	$250	5,453	$0.05
162	Kasson	$200	4,398	$0.05
170	Jordan	$150	3,833	$0.04
170	South St. Paul	$750	20,167	$0.04
172	New Ulm	$450	13,594	$0.03
172	North St. Paul	$375	11,929	$0.03
172	West St. Paul	$600	19,405	$0.03
172	Brooklyn Park	$1,950	67,388	$0.03
172	Hutchinson	$350	13,080	$0.03
172	Duluth	$2,250	86,918	$0.03
178	Fairmont	$250	10,889	$0.02
178	Blaine	$1,000	44,942	$0.02
178	Columbia Heights	$400	18,520	$0.02
178	St. Joseph	$100	4,681	$0.02
178	Shakopee	$400	20,568	$0.02
	Other	$11,550
	Total	$1,319,387

Sources: Federal Elections Commission and U.S. Census (2000). Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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All About the 39 Democrats Voting 'No' to the Affordable Health Care for America Act

2009-11-10T06:04:54Z

Majority of Blue Dogs, Democratic Representatives in '08 Pick-up Districts, and Democrats in Competitive Districts All Vote in Favor of Bill

One of the reasons political analysts suspected Democrats might face difficulty in passing health care reform in the House this year, was due to potential holdouts among the conservative "Blue Dog" wing of the party and other members of the Democratic caucus who might be vulnerable in 2010.

Most Blue Dog Democrats come from moderate or conservative House districts - many of which were carried by John McCain in the 2008 presidential election even in the face of a second consecutive Democratic tidal wave election.

However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Whip James Clyburn, in part by permitting a ban on abortion services to be voted on as a separate amendment to the Affordable Health Care for America Act, were able to ultimately corral enough Blue Dogs into their corner as the bill was passed with two votes to spare.

In fact, a majority of the Blue Dogs actually voted for the health care bill, by a 28 to 24 margin.

Some analysts (and Republican strategists) have stated that voting for the controversial health care bill might be problematic for Democrats in swing districts in 2010 - an election year in which the conventional wisdom suggests there will be a pullback towards the GOP, perhaps into the double-digits.

If that's the case, then many Democrats voted quite boldly last Saturday night. Here's why:

· The Democratic Party picked up 26 House seats in the 2008 election (netting 21). A majority of these 26 Representatives (14) voted for the health care bill, with just 12 voting against it.

· And of the 24 House seats that the Democrats won by less than 10 points in 2008, only 8 voted against the bill, with 16 voting in favor of it, including nine Representatives in "pick-up" districts for the Democrats (CT-04, FL-08, MI-07, MI-09, NV-03, OH-01, OH-15, PA-03, VA-05).

And as for the Democrats voting 'no?'

These 39 Representatives had an average margin of victory of a whopping 29.8 points in 2008. Six of these Democrats represent districts in which the GOP did not even field a candidate last November (AL-07, AR-04, LA-03, TN-06, TN-08, VA-09).

But one thing most of these 39 Democratic 'defectors' have in common is that they represent an ideologically conservative constituency.

John McCain won 31 of the 39 districts represented by Democrats who voted 'no' on the health care bill. In fact, McCain won by double-digits in nearly half of these districts (19). Overall, McCain had an average margin of victory of 9.6 points across these 39 districts.

In total, there were 49 House districts carried by John McCain in 2008 in which voters elected a Democrat to the U.S. House - which leaves 18 Democrats in McCain districts voting 'yes' on health care reform (AR-01, AR-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-03, IN-08, IN-09, ND-AL, OH-06, OH-18, PA-03, PA-10, PA-12, SC-05, VA-05, WV-01, WV-03).

Democrats Voting Against the Affordable Health Care for America Act

District	Representative	'08 MoV	Obama MoV	Blue Dog
AL-02*	Bobby Bright	0.6	-26	Yes
AL-05	Parker Griffith	3.0	-23	Yes
AL-07	Artur Davis	100.0	+42	No
AR-04	Mike Ross	72.6	-19	Yes
CO-04*	Betsy Markey	12.2	-1	No
FL-02	Allen Boyd	23.9	-9	Yes
FL-24*	Suzanne Kosmas	16.1	-2	No
GA-08	Jim Marshall	14.4	-13	Yes
GA-12	John Barrow	32.0	+9	Yes
ID-01*	Walter Minnick	1.6	-26	Yes
KY-06	Ben Chandler	29.4	-12	Yes
LA-03	Charlie Melancon	100.0	-24	Yes
MD-01*	Frank Kratovil	2.4	-18	Yes
MN-07	Collin Peterson	44.5	-3	Yes
MO-04	Ike Skelton	31.8	-23	No
MS-01	Travis Childers	10.4	-25	Yes
MS-04	Gene Taylor	49.2	-35	Yes
NC-07	Mike McIntyre	37.6	-5	Yes
NC-08*	Larry Kissell	10.8	+5	No
NC-11	Heath Shuler	26.2	-5	Yes
NJ-03*	John Adler	3.4	+5	No
NM-02*	Harry Teague	12.0	-1	No
NY-13*	Michael McMahon	27.5	-2	No
NY-20	Scott Murphy	23.6	+3	No
NY-29*	Eric Massa	1.8	-2	No
OH-10	Dennis Kucinich	17.4	+20	No
OH-16*	John Boccieri	10.6	-2	No
OK-02	Dan Boren	41.0	-32	Yes
PA-04	Jason Altmire	12.0	-11	Yes
PA-17	Tim Holden	27.6	-3	Yes
SD-AL	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	35.2	-8	Yes
TN-04	Lincoln Davis	21.0	-30	Yes
TN-06	Bart Gordon	48.8	-25	Yes
TN-08	John Tanner	100.0	-13	Yes
TX-17	Chet Edwards	3.1	-35	No
UT-02	Jim Matheson	28.4	-18	Yes
VA-02*	Glenn Nye	4.9	+2	Yes
VA-09	Rick Boucher	97.1	-19	No
WA-03	Brian Baird	28.0	+8	No
	Average	29.8	-9.6

* Denotes 'pick-up' districts in the 2008 election. Presidential margin of victory data from CQ Politics. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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Ellison Ranks 6th Among MN U.S. House Delegation in Itemized Individual Fundraising from His Own 5th CD

2009-11-09T06:11:56Z

Only 6 Percent of Large Donor Funds from 5th CD Residents Have Gone to Ellison This Year

A Smart Politics analysis of 2009 Federal Elections Commission (FEC) data finds that DFL Congressman Keith Ellison has only received 6.4 percent of individual itemized funds contributed by members of his own 5th Congressional District to the state's eight U.S. House Representatives from January through September of this year.

That places the 2-term Congressman a distant 6th in fundraising within his own district. Both Republican Erik Paulsen and fellow DFLer Tim Walz have raised more than four times the amount of large donor money in the 5th CD as Representative Ellison.

Itemized individual donations are those totaling $200 or more per contributor for the election cycle to date.

Although the 5th CD ranks sixth in the Gopher State in terms of median household income (at $50,725 per year), Ellison's district has contributed the second largest amount of money to the state's eight U.S. Representatives this year.

Overall, the 5th Congressional District has contributed over $210,000 in large donor funds to the Minnesota U.S. House delegation. Residents of the 5th CD have contributed $65,000+ more in large donor funds than the much wealthier 2nd CD (which has a median household income of $73,284) and $80,000+ more in contributions than residents of the 6th CD (which has a median household income of $69,909).

Residents of Paulsen's 3rd CD set the pace with over a half a million dollars contributed to the state's eight U.S. House members so far this year.

Itemized Individual Income Contributed to Minnesota U.S. Representatives by District, January-September 2009

District	Dollars	Percent	Median Income
3	$551,160	41.8	$76,117
5	$210,069	15.9	$50,725
4	$163,998	12.4	$53,763
2	$149,290	11.3	$73,284
6	$129,385	9.8	$69,909
1	$72,320	5.5	$51,448
8	$26,215	2.0	$46,044
7	$17,200	1.3	$45,887
Total	$1,319,387	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics. Median household income data from U.S. Census Bureau's 2008 American Community Survey.

Despite the significant amount of money coming from the 5th CD this year, very little of this $200,000+ is being directed by residents to their own Congressman's campaign. Ellison has received just $13,400 of his nearly $200,000 in itemized individual contributions raised this cycle from 5th CD residents.

Erik Paulsen leads the way in the 5th with $58,364 in large donor money directed to his campaign, or 4.4 times as much money as Ellison has received from his own constituents.

And lest one believe that the only individuals giving large amounts of money in the Democratic-heavy 5th CD are Republicans, DFLer Tim Walz raised $57,570 through September in Ellison's district, or 4.3 times the rate of Ellison.

Republicans Michele Bachmann ($29,245) and John Kline ($26,315) rank 3rd and 4th in fundraising in the 5th district, with Betty McCollum in 5th place at $16,325.

Itemized Individual Income Contributed by 5th CD Residents to Minnesota U.S. Representatives, January-September 2009

Rank	Representative	Dollars	Percentage
1	Erik Paulsen	$58,364	27.8
2	Tim Walz	$57,570	27.4
3	Michele Bachmann	$29,245	13.9
4	John Kline	$26,315	12.5
5	Betty McCollum	$16,325	7.8
6	Keith Ellison	$13,400	6.4
7	Jim Oberstar	$8,600	4.1
8	Collin Peterson	$250	0.1
	Total	$210,069	100.0

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

As Smart Politics reported in April, July, and October of this year, the vast majority of Ellison's fundraising has come from out of state sources. In the first nine months of 2009, more than 84 percent of the $195,885 Ellison raised in itemized individual contributions have come from outside of Minnesota.

Moreover, the 6.4 percent of 5th CD money netted by Ellison is by far the lowest among Minnesota's U.S. Representatives in terms of the percentage of in-district contributions directed to their respective campaigns.

Four of the state's U.S. House members have netted more than half of the large donor contributions coming from their own district to the state's eight Representatives: Tim Walz (58.6 percent of 1st CD contributions), Collin Peterson (56.5 percent of 7th CD funds), Erik Paulsen (54.5 percent of 3rd CD contributions), and Michele Bachmann (51.8 percent of 6th CD donations).

Ellison's 6.4 percent of in-district funds also pales to the percentage of funds raised by John Kline (40.3 percent of 2nd CD contributions), Jim Oberstar (21.9 percent of 8th CD funds), and Betty McCollum (17.7 percent of 4th CD donations).

Percentage of Itemized Individual Donations to Minnesota U.S. House members Directed to That District's U.S. Representative, January-September 2009

District	Representative	Percentage
1	Tim Walz	58.6
7	Collin Peterson	56.5
3	Erik Paulsen	54.5
6	Michele Bachmann	51.8
2	John Kline	40.3
8	Jim Oberstar	21.9
4	Betty McCollum	17.7
5	Keith Ellison	6.4

FEC data compiled by Smart Politics.

Check back with Smart Politics all this week for more analysis of district-level fundraising data.

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Upper Midwestern U.S. House Delegation Votes 13-10 in Favor of Health Care Bill

2009-11-08T15:18:01Z

Region Supported Amendment Banning Abortion Services from Bill by 12-11 Vote

The Upper Midwestern U.S. House delegation contributed 13 of the 220 votes Democrats received to pass a health care bill Saturday night that will require every American to obtain health insurance.

Two regional Blue Dog Democrats defected from their party's leadership on the vote for the "Affordable Health Care for America Act" - Colin Peterson (MN-07) and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL) - while two Blue Dogs voted for the measure: Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL).

Upper Midwestern Roll Call Vote on HR 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act

Yes
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
David Loebsack (IA-02)
Leonard Boswell (IA-03)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
Betty McCollum (MN-04)
Keith Ellison (MN-05)
Jim Oberstar (MN-08)
Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
Tammy Baldwin (WI-02)
Ron Kind (WI-03)
Gwen Moore (WI-05)
David Obey (WI-07)
Steven Kagen (WI-08)

No
Tom Latham (IA-04)
Steve King (IA-05)
John Kline (MN-02)
Erik Paulsen (MN-03)
Michele Bachmann (MN-06)
Colin Peterson (MN-07)
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL)
Paul Ryan (WI-01)
Jim Sensennbrenner (WI-05)
Tom Petri (WI-06)

The bill, which also will expand the requirements of businesses to provide coverage to their workers, had been stalled earlier in the week due to objections by many conservative and anti-abortion Democrats who did not want abortion services covered by the new (government-administered) public insurance option the bill creates.

Instead, the abortion issue was dealt with as a separate amendment to the bill earlier in the evening. The amendment to ban the abortion services from the bill passed by a 240-194 margin, with 64 Democrats voting for the ban.

Regionally, 13 Upper Midwestern House members voted for the ban, with 12 voting against. Blue Dog Democrats Peterson and Pomeroy voted along with 176 Republicans for the ban as well as Jim Oberstar (MN-08) and David Obey (WI-07).

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who voted against the main bill, did not support the abortion services ban.

Upper Midwestern Roll Call Vote on Amendment to Ban Abortion Services from the Affordable Health Care for America Act

Yes
Tom Latham (IA-04)
Steve King (IA-05)
John Kline (MN-02)
Erik Paulsen (MN-03)
Michele Bachmann (MN-06)
Colin Peterson (MN-07)
Jim Oberstar (MN-08)
Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
Paul Ryan (WI-01)
Jim Sensennbrenner (WI-05)
Tom Petri (WI-06)
David Obey (WI-07)

No
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
David Loebsack (IA-02)
Leonard Boswell (IA-03)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
Betty McCollum (MN-04)
Keith Ellison (MN-05)
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL)
Tammy Baldwin (WI-02)
Ron Kind (WI-03)
Gwen Moore (WI-05)
Steven Kagen (WI-08)

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Was Ranked Choice Voting a Success in Minneapolis?

2009-11-05T06:03:14Z

Less than half utilized 2nd choice option in mayoral race; voter turnout down by 25,000+ from 2005

Although nearly two-thirds of Minneapolis voters approved the change to ranked choice voting in 2006, less than half actually utilized the option of ranking multiple candidates in the mayoral election Tuesday night.

Back in 2006, 64.9 percent of Minneapolis voters checked 'yes' to approve ranked choice voting, while 35.1 percent disapproved. However, 18.8 percent of all those who voted in the '06 election did not vote on this ballot question; as such, 52.7 percent of all Minneapolis residents who went to the polls in 2006 actively voted to support the measure.

Ranked choice voting is heralded by its proponents, such as FairVote Minnesota, for a variety of reasons such as increasing voter participation, eliminating "wasted" votes by its ability to redistribute votes cast for less popular candidates to more popular candidates, solving the "spoiler" problem, and giving voters more choices.

But in the top-of-the-ticket mayoral race in 2009, in which incumbent R.T. Rybak won 73.6 percent of the vote as ranked choice voting made its debut in Minnesota, only a minority of Minneapolis voters utilized their new right to rank multiple candidates on the ballot.

Overall, 45,117 voted for a first choice in the mayoral race. But only 48.8 percent of Minneapolis voters (22,032) opted to vote for a second choice, and just 34.4 percent (15,511) ranked three candidates.

The question as to whether or not more Minneapolis residents would have taken advantage of the ranked choice voting system in the mayoral race if Rybak had faced greater competition remains an open one.

As for voter turnout, the ranked choice voting system did not seem to energize the electorate on its face. There were 25,156 fewer Minneapolis residents who turned out to vote at the ballot box in 2009 compared to the 2005 general election, or a drop of 35.8 percent. In 2005, 70,273 voted in the Minneapolis mayoral race, for a turnout of 30 percent, compared to 45,117 voters in 2009.

Low voter turnout generally can be partially attributed to the lack of competition in the 2009 mayoral race, although Rybak's 25-point victory over Peter McLaughlin in 2005 was hardly a nail-biter of a race.

The question for those concerned about civic engagement is whether or not voter turnout would have been even lower (or, theoretically, higher) if ranked choice voting had not been implemented in this year's election.

Ranked choice voting advocates did score a major victory Tuesday night, however, as the measure was passed by a narrow majority of 52 percent of voters in the City of St. Paul.

Two Minneapolis City Council races did not produce a majority winner in the first choice column Tuesday evening, and will therefore trigger the ranked choice voting redistribution of votes of the lowest ranked candidate(s) until one candidate reaches a majority.

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Chris Coleman Posts Largest St. Paul Mayoral Victory in a Quarter Century

2009-11-04T06:00:00Z

Despite GOP-endorsed mayoral candidate Eva Ng improving notably in the City of St. Paul Tuesday night vis-à-vis the performances of John McCain and Norm Coleman from a year ago, one-term incumbent Chris Coleman posted the strongest performance in a St. Paul mayoral race in nearly 25 years.

Coleman received 68.7 percent of the vote - one tenth of a percentage point higher than his 2005 victory when he unseated Randy Kelly.

This marks the largest percentage of the vote received by a St. Paul mayoral candidate since George Latimer won 84.3 percent of the vote in his final reelection victory in 1985.

Coleman's overwhelming victory occurred on a night in which Republicans gained significant ground in high profile statewide gubernatorial victories out east in New Jersey (+6 from 2005) and southeast in Virginia (+13).

Ng, however, did receive 30.8 percent of the vote among the Democratic-heavy St. Paul population. This marks a 37.5 percent improvement for the self-described "center right conservative" over the 2008 presidential vote in St. Paul received by Republican John McCain (22.4 percent) and a 21.3 percent improvement over the vote received by Norm Coleman in the Gopher State's 2008 US Senate race (25.4 percent).

The turnout in mayoral elections is, of course, much lower than in presidential or midterm election years.

Just 34,042 St. Paulites came out to vote in the mayoral race in 2009 - 42.5 percent less traffic at the ballot box compared to 2005, when 59,154 residents came out to vote as Coleman knocked Kelly out of office.

Ng's defeat means that Democrats will continue to control the mayor's office in St. Paul as they have done for 41 of the past 57 years since 1952 (Independent George J. Vavoulis, 1960-1966; Independent Charles P. McCarty, 1970-1974; Republican Norm Coleman, 1996-2002).

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Minnesota Twins 3rd Most "Efficient" Franchise in Major League Baseball in 2009

2009-11-03T06:39:05Z

With a new (partially) taxpayer-funded stadium set to open for the 50th year of Minnesota Twins baseball next year, all eyes will be on the franchise to see what players they lock up to long-term contracts (e.g. Joe Mauer), what players they acquire via trades or the free agency, and overall how much money the Pohlad family is going to invest in a franchise with a talented roster, but one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.

The Twins franchise has been well-regarded by baseball analysts over the past decade for its low-payroll / high output business model that has been attributed to shrewd draft choices, a solid farm system, and crafty managing by Ron Gardenhire.

That model has produced one of the sleekest, most efficient franchises in baseball, which, according to a Smart Politics analysis, racked up the third most victories per dollar invested in player salary for the 2009 season.

The Twins scrapped their way into the playoffs with 87 victories this year, with the 7th lowest salary in baseball at $65.3 million.

At $750,566 per victory, that ranked third in baseball behind only the Florida Marlins (the Minnesota Twins of the National League) at just $423,379 per victory and the San Diego Padres at $583,123.

On the other side of the coin, the 2009 New York Mets franchise proved once again that simply spending lots of money on player personnel does not always translate into success. The Mets had the second highest salary in baseball, at $149.4 million, and also the highest dollars-per-victory ratio in the league, at $2.13 million per victory (or 2.8 times that of the Twins - who had 17 more victories).

Other ineffectual franchises with big payrolls this season include the Houston Astros at $1.39 million per victory (74 victories in 2009) and two division rivals of the Twins: the Cleveland Indians at $1.26 million per victory (65 victories) and the Chicago White Sox at $1.22 million per victory (and 79 victories).

However, the New York Yankees prove that if you spend enough money on a roster and lure in enough high profile free agents, success inevitably finds you (though this model did not pan out in 2008). In 2009, the Yankees spent a league high $201.4 million on its players. And while the team's $1.96 million dollars spent per victory was the second highest ratio in MLB, the team led baseball with 103 victories and is one game away from winning yet another World Series.

Dollars Spent on Players' Salary Per Victory Among Major League Baseball Franchises, 2009

Rank	Team	2009 payroll	Wins	Dollars per win
1	Florida Marlins	$36,834,000	87	$423,379
2	San Diego Padres	$43,734,200	75	$583,123
3	Minnesota Twins	$65,299,266	87	$750,566
4	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	$63,313,034	84	$753,727
5	Texas Rangers	$68,178,798	87	$783,664
6	Pittsburgh Pirates	$48,693,000	62	$785,371
7	Colorado Rockies	$75,201,000	92	$817,402
8	Oakland Athletics	$62,310,000	75	$830,800
9	St. Louis Cardinals	$77,605,109	91	$852,803
10	San Francisco Giants	$82,616,450	88	$938,823
11	Cincinnati Reds	$73,558,500	78	$943,058
12	Milwaukee Brewers	$80,182,502	80	$1,002,281
13	Washington Nationals	$60,328,000	59	$1,022,508
14	Baltimore Orioles	$67,101,666	64	$1,048,464
15	Arizona Diamondbacks	$73,516,666	70	$1,050,238
16	Los Angeles Dodgers	$100,414,592	95	$1,056,996
17	Toronto Blue Jags	$80,538,300	75	$1,073,844
18	Kansas City Royals	$70,519,333	65	$1,084,913
19	Atlanta Braves	$96,726,166	86	$1,124,723
20	Seattle Mariners	$98,904,166	85	$1,163,578
21	Los Angeles Angels	$113,709,000	97	$1,172,258
22	Philadelphia Phillies	$113,004,046	93	$1,215,097
23	Chicago White Sox	$96,068,500	79	$1,216,057
24	Cleveland Indians	$81,579,166	65	$1,255,064
25	Boston Red Sox	$121,745,999	95	$1,281,537
26	Detroit Tigers	$115,085,145	86	$1,338,199
27	Houston Astros	$102,996,414	74	$1,391,843
28	Chicago Cubs	$134,809,000	83	$1,624,205
29	New York Yankees	$201,449,189	103	$1,955,817
30	New York Mets	$149,373,987	70	$2,133,914

Note: The Minnesota Twins played (and won) an extra game (#163) at the end of the regular season. Without this victory the Twins would have been ranked #4 behind the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Source: USA Today Salaries Databases; data compiled by Smart Politics.

The Twins #3 ranking above is up from its #4 most "efficient" team ranking in baseball in 2008 - despite spending more than $100,000 less per victory in the '08 season ($646,562). The Florida Marlins again set the pace by spending just $259,661 per victory en route to an 84 win season in 2008.

This signals one warning sign for the Twins, however, as they debate how much more money to spend on its players in the new era of the franchise at Target Field.

The Twins spent 16.0 percent more per victory in 2009 compared to the previous season, which was the 10th highest increase in baseball. The Twins ended up with one less victory in 2009, despite an increase in salary of $8.4 million.

With taxpayers expecting a higher payroll bankrolled by the Pohlads in 2010 and a higher victory tally for the team, the lingering question for the franchise is at what point does the law of diminishing returns begin to kick in, even for a team renowned for its smart investment in talent?

Other low-salary highly efficient teams such as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+66.8) and the Florida Marlins (+63.1) experienced the greatest proportional increases in cost per victory from 2008 to 2009.

Percentage Change in Cost Per Victory Among Major League Baseball Franchises, 2008-2009

Rank	Team	2008	2009	% Change
1	San Diego Padres	$1,169,486	$583,123	-50.1
2	Seattle Mariners	$1,928,959	$1,163,578	-39.7
3	Detroit Tigers	$1,860,611	$1,338,199	-28.1
4	St. Louis Cardinals	$1,158,424	$852,803	-26.4
5	Los Angeles Dodgers	$1,411,768	$1,056,996	-25.1
6	Atlanta Braves	$1,421,746	$1,124,723	-20.9
7	New York Yankees	$2,349,231	$1,955,817	-16.7
8	Colorado Rockies	$927,777	$817,402	-11.9
9	San Francisco Giants	$1,063,813	$938,823	-11.7
10	Chicago White Sox	$1,361,678	$1,216,057	-10.7
11	Boston Red Sox	$1,404,106	$1,281,537	-8.7
12	Texas Rangers	$857,118	$783,664	-8.6
13	Cincinnati Reds	$1,001,590	$943,058	-5.8
14	Toronto Blue Jags	$1,137,138	$1,073,844	-5.6
15	Los Angeles Angels	$1,192,163	$1,172,258	-1.7
16	Baltimore Orioles	$988,180	$1,048,464	+6.1
17	Pittsburgh Pirates	$726,713	$785,371	+8.1
18	Washington Nationals	$931,542	$1,022,508	+9.8
19	Milwaukee Brewers	$899,306	$1,002,281	+11.5
20	Philadelphia Phillies	$1,068,151	$1,215,097	+13.8
21	Minnesota Twins	$646,963	$750,566	+16.0
22	Cleveland Indians	$974,939	$1,255,064	+28.7
23	Oakland Athletics	$639,562	$830,800	+29.9
24	Arizona Diamondbacks	$807,350	$1,050,238	+30.1
25	Chicago Cubs	$1,220,060	$1,624,205	+33.1
26	Houston Astros	$1,034,075	$1,391,843	+34.6
27	New York Mets	$1,548,240	$2,133,914	+37.8
28	Kansas City Royals	$776,607	$1,084,913	+39.7
29	Florida Marlins	$259,661	$423,379	+63.1
30	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	$451,759	$753,727	+66.8

Source: USA Today Salaries Databases; data compiled by Smart Politics.

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What Do the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Mean? (And Are They Predictors of Midterms?)

2009-11-02T06:18:57Z

With the latest polls indicating Democrats may be headed for a double digit loss in the open Virginia gubernatorial contest as well as a fight for their life to hold onto New Jersey's gubernatorial seat, Republican strategists are touting Tuesday's two highest profile races as both a referendum on President Barack Obama's policies as well as a sign of what's to come in the 2010 midterms - particularly in the U.S. House.

But is this necessarily so? What do the elections in New Jersey and Virginia mean outside of these respective states? And how does the popularity of newly elected presidents seem to impact these races?

A Smart Politics analysis of historical election returns in the Garden and Old Dominion States finds that the two states have voted in tandum during the last five gubernatorial elections dating back to 1989 - and always electing the party which is not in control of the White House.

This is not good news for Democratic New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, who is fighting tooth-and-nail with Republican Chris Christie with independent Chris Daggett in the low double-digits.

Democrats swept the 1989, 2001, and 2005 elections in these two states - and were able to do so both when Republican Presidents were popular (George H.W. Bush at 57 percent approval on Election Day in 1989; George W. Bush at 84 percent in 2001) as well as unpopular (Bush at 42 percent approval in 2005).

Republicans, meanwhile, swept the 1993 and 1997 gubernatorial contests in the two states while Bill Clinton was in office - at both unpopular (in 1993, at 48 percent) and popular (in 1997, at 57 percent) periods of his presidency.

As such, it does not appear correct to attribute President Obama's middle-of-the-road approval ratings (in the low 50s), to any failures experienced by the Democratic Party on Tuesday in these two states.

Gubernatorial success by a political party in these states seems to be inversely correlated with the party controlling the White House and not correlated to the President's popularity, as such approval ratings have not demonstrated to be associated consistently with electoral success or failure of his party in gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia over the past 20 years.

And if there is a party sweep (by the GOP) on Tuesday, what does that tell us about how the midterm U.S. House elections will turn out in 2010?

Not much.

When the Democrats swept the gubernatorial contests in 1989 and 2005, they gained U.S. House seats in the following year's midterm elections (+7 and +31 seats respectively). However, after the Democrats swept the two races in 2001, they went on to lose 8 seats in the 2002 midterms.

As for the GOP, their sweep through New Jersey and Virginia in 1993 was followed by the 54-seat gain in the U.S. House in the 1994 Republican Revolution. However, their 1997 sweep was followed by a loss of 5 seats to the Democrats in 1998.

It should be noted that the Garden and Old Dominion States have not always voted in unison in gubernatorial elections. Democrats and Republicans each claimed one state in the elections of 1973, 1977, 1981, and 1985.

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