Failed U.S. Senate hopefuls have subsequently run for the office 12 additional times during the primary era – losing all 12 bids

Last weekend Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow ended her bid for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination effectively making the forthcoming August 4th primary a two-candidate race between four-term U.S. Representative Haley Stevens and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. [McMorrow’s name will remain on the primary ballot].

Former seven-term GOP U.S. Representative and presumptive U.S. Senate nominee Mike Rogers (pictured) awaits the Stevens vs. El-Sayed winner in what is projected to be the Republican Party’s best pick-up opportunity in a cycle that may result in the chamber’s balance of power being decided by a single seat.

Rogers will represent Republicans on the U.S. Senate ballot in an open seat race for a second consecutive cycle, two years after narrowly losing the 2024 U.S. Senate election to U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin by 19K votes in a state Donald Trump carried by 80K at the top of the ticket.

The former U.S. Representative’s name will also now be added to a long list of Michiganders who returned to the U.S. Senate ballot after suffering a primary or general election loss. However, Rogers is hoping for a different result: all previous candidates – totaling 12 bids – fell short of winning a seat all 12 times.

Prior to Rogers, Michigan Republicans nominated Detroit businessman and former U.S. Army aviation officer John James in both the 2018 and 2020 cycles. James fell 6.5 points short of unseating Debbie Stabenow and then lost a 1.7-point nail-biter two years later to Senator Gary Peters.

Six other Republicans have tallied eight failed attempts at the U.S. Senate in the state over the last 100+ years:

Former Governor Chase Osborn placed a distant third with 19.6 percent in 1918’s four-candidate primary won by former U.S. Navy Secretary Truman Newberry.

Osborn made a second bid in 1930 but lost the GOP primary by 38.6 points to incumbent James Couzens.

State Senator Robert Huber of Troy made his first of four bids for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in 1970 – falling 2.6 points shy of nominee Lenore Romney (wife of former Governor George Romney) in a head-to-head matchup.

Huber subsequently won a seat in the U.S. House in 1972 and then placed third in 1976 (17.4 percent) and 1982 (18.7 percent) in four-candidate GOP U.S. Senate primary fields won by U.S. Representative Marvin Esch and former U.S. Rep. Philip Ruppe respectively.

Huber’s final U.S. Senate primary bid came in 1988 when he received 38.9 percent in a head-to-head race against former U.S. Rep. Jim Dunn.

Jim Dunn’s 1988 primary victory – and general election loss to Donald Riegle – followed his 1984 primary defeat by 25.6 points to former Skylab astronaut Jack Lousma.

University of Michigan Regent and commercial and industrial builder Deane Baker made his first U.S. Senate bid in 1976, placing fourth in the primary with 11.0 percent. Baker ran for a second time in 1982 and placed fourth again with 13.1 percent.

Detroit attorney Clark Durant recorded the state’s longest stint between failed U.S. Senate candidacies during the primary era. Durant lost to U.S. Rep. Bill Schuette by 19.4 points with 40.3 percent of the primary vote in 1990. Twenty-two years later, Durant made a second bid for the chamber and placed 20.7 points behind former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra with 33.5 percent of the vote in a four-candidate field.

Lastly, conservative talk show host Ronna Romney fell 3.9 points short of winning the GOP nomination in 1994 against attorney and ex-Michigan Republican Party chair Spencer Abraham. Two years later, Romney was nominated by the GOP but was trounced by nearly 20 points in the general election by incumbent Carl Levin.

On the Democratic side, there have been three retread candidacies – two of these resulting in primary losses during the 1936 and 1940 cycles: attorney Louis Ward of Pontiac and Common Pleas Judge Ralph Liddy of Detroit.

Ward lost to U.S. Representative Prentiss Brown by 2.1 points with 34.2 percent in 1936 while Liddy placed third of four candidates with 20.9 percent. In 1940, Ward (11.2 percent) and Liddy (8.3 percent) placed in distant third and fourth places respectively in a primary won by Detroit attorney Frank Fitzgerald.

The most recent failed Democratic U.S. Senate candidate to suit up and run again was former Senator Blair Moody in 1954. Moody was appointed to the chamber in April 1951 after the death of long-serving Republican Arthur Vandenberg.

Moody was simultaneously nominated for the short term without opposition in 1952 and was easily nominated for the full six-year term with 88.4 percent. That November, Moody lost the special and general elections to Republican U.S. Representative Charles Potter.

Two years later, Moody ran for the Democratic nomination against Detroit School Board member Patrick McNamara but died in July – two weeks before the primary. Moody still won 35.8 percent of the vote.

Rogers and the Republicans are attempting to end a Michigan U.S. Senate electoral drought of 10 consecutive races in 2026 – tied with Washington for the seventh largest active GOP drought in the nation behind Hawaii (20), New Jersey (18), California (15), Maryland (15), New York (12), and Delaware (11).

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The state’s GOP race is poised to result in the most closely decided primary for the office in state history

With nearly 90 percent of votes counted, the race for Colorado’s Republican gubernatorial nomination is still too close to call in what will go down as the state’s most narrowly decided gubernatorial primary in history.

State Senator Barb Kirkmeyer is clinging to a 0.3-point lead over former Marine and minister Victor Marx with approximately 85 percent of the vote counted. A third candidate, State Representative Scott Bottoms, has been eliminated after receiving 20 percent of the vote.

Kirkmeyer is just the second woman ever to appear on a Republican primary ballot for governor in Colorado. University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl became the first woman to do so during the 2022 cycle when she won the GOP primary en route to a 19-point loss in the general election to Governor Jared Polis.

Kirkmeyer’s narrow lead of less than a half of a percentage point puts the 2026 GOP nomination battle on track to become the most closely decided gubernatorial primary in state history out of more than 80 such major party contests since 1912.

Prior to 2026, only 10 Democratic or Republican primaries for governor had been decided by single digits – including eight on the GOP side.

The closest gubernatorial primary was held in 2010 when businessman Dan Maes edged former six-term U.S. Representative Scott McInnis by just 1.32 points in a head-to-head contest. [Maes famously set a GOP state party low water mark with just 11.1 percent of the vote in the subsequent general election due to former GOP U.S. Representative and Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo receiving substantial support from voters of his former party].

The other seven Republican primaries decided by single digits occurred in:

• 1986 (1.35 points): Former Lieutenant Governor Ted Strickland (35.6 percent) defeated Colorado Springs developer Steve Schuck (34.2 percent) with a third candidate, State Representative Bob Kirscht (30.2 percent), close behind
• 2014 (3.5 points): Former two-term U.S. Representative Bob Beauprez (30.2 percent) beat former five-term U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo (26.7 percent) in a four-candidate field
• 1916 (3.8 points): Governor George Carlson (51.9 percent) edged former Leadville Mayor Samuel Nicholson (48.1 percent) in a rematch of the 1914 contest
• 1914 (4.0 points): Former U.S. Senator George Carlson (39.4 percent) defeated Nicholson (35.4 percent) in a three-candidate field
• 1924 (4.4 points): Second Judicial District Court Judge Clarence Morley (48.9 percent) beat Lieutenant Governor Robert Rockwell (44.5 percent) in a three-candidate field
• 1912 (6.2 points): Former Auditor Clifford Parks (53.1 percent) defeated Colorado Springs attorney Philip Stewart (46.9 percent) in a two-candidate race
• 2022 (7.8 points): University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl (53.9 percent) beat former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (46.1 percent) in a head-to-head matchup

The only two Democratic primaries for governor that were decided by single digits took place more than 80 years ago:

• 1942 (6.7 points): Treasurer Homer Bedford (40.2 percent) defeated State Representative Moses Smith of Ault (33.5 percent) in a three-candidate race
• 1934 (9.4 points): Governor Edwin Johnson (54.7 percent) was renominated over Josephine Roche, a mine operator and soon-to-be appointed Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under FDR (45.3 percent)

In yesterday’s Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser upset U.S. Senator and party establishment favorite Michael Bennet by approximately 14.5 points.

Since 1912, more than half of all Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primary winners – 43 of 82 – have won without opposition in Colorado (24 on the Democratic side and 19 Republicans).

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Dan Cox wins the largest GOP gubernatorial primary in Maryland history to set up the fifth general election rematch during the direct primary era

Maryland’s 2026 gubernatorial election will be a rematch of four years ago, following the results of last night’s primary.

On the Democratic side, with all but a handful of precincts reporting, Governor Wes Moore cruised to renomination with 87.8 percent of the vote in his head-to-head matchup against physician Eric Felber.

That marks the second largest support in a contested Democratic gubernatorial primary in the state dating back to the first primary in 1911. Only Governor Marvin Mandel turned in a more dominating performance when he received 89.1 percent against four opponents during his 1970 campaign.

On the Republican side, former state Delegate and 2022 nominee Dan Cox (pictured) defeated retired banker and indoor soccer franchise (Baltimore Blast) owner Ed Hale by 9.5 points with 45.2 percent of the vote.

Nine candidates were on the GOP Maryland gubernatorial primary ballot – a party record that nearly doubled the previous high of five when Baltimore County Executive Spiro Agnew was nominated with 83.2 percent of the vote in 1966.

Cox’s plurality victory marked just the second time a Maryland Republican was nominated for the office without majority support. [Larry Hogan won 43.0 percent in a four-candidate field in 2014 – some 14 points ahead of Harford County Executive David Craig].

The Cox vs. Moore rematch will be the fifth in the state among major party candidates during the primary era.

Republican Harry Nice vs. Democrat Albert Ritchie (1919 and 1934). Harry Nice, a former Baltimore City Councilor and state’s Attorney, lost to Attorney General Albert Ritchie by just 165 votes in 1919. Ritchie served four terms but fell 6,149 votes shy of a fifth term in a rematch some 15 years later against Nice.

Republican Theodore McKeldin vs. Democrat William Lane (1946 and 1950). Former Attorney General William Lane held the open seat for his party against the backdrop of the disastrous 1946 Democratic midterms with a 9.5-point win against Baltimore Mayor Theodore McKeldin. McKeldin – the GOP nominee for four consecutive cycles from 1942 through 1954 – would handily win the 1950 rematch against Governor Lane by 14.6 points en route to his first of two terms.

Republican Ellen Sauerbrey vs. Democrat Parris Glendening (1994 and 1998). Former Prince George’s County Executive Parris Glendening won the seventh and eighth consecutive gubernatorial elections for his party – both against State Delegate Ellen Sauerbrey. Sauerbrey ended up 0.4 points shy of victory during the 1994 Republican Revolution and lost by 10.3 points in 1998.

Republican Bob Ehrlich vs Democrat Martin O’Malley (2006 and 2010). In 2006, two-term Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley unseated Governor Bob Ehrlich by 6.5 points. Ehrlich was nominated for a third consecutive cycle in 2010 but the Republican wave did not hit Maryland’s coastline with the former governor landing 14.4 points shy of his destination.

Maryland Republicans have now nominated only four different candidates for governor across the last nine election cycles since 1994: Sauerbrey (1994, 1998), Ehrlich (2002, 2006, 2010), Hogan (2014, 2018), and Cox (2022, 2026).

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Second place primary finishers have won more than half of gubernatorial runoffs over the last 100+ years

Health care executive Rick Jackson is the Republican Party nominee for Georgia’s gubernatorial election after launching his campaign for the office just three and one-half months before the initial May primary.

Jackson placed second in that race with 32.5 percent – 5.9 points behind President Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones.

The May primary included eight candidates – the largest GOP field for the office in Georgia history.

For the third straight open seat gubernatorial primary in the state, the Republicans headed to a runoff. And, also for the third consecutive open seat cycle, the second place GOP primary finisher came from behind to win the nomination.

Jackson defeated Jones with 52.7 percent of the vote on Tuesday making him the eighth of 14 Georgia gubernatorial candidates to finish second in the primary and subsequently win the runoff.

Jackson followed in the path of U.S. Representative Nathan Deal in 2010 and Secretary of State Brian Kemp in 2018.

In 2010, Deal trailed Secretary of State Karen Handel by 11.2 points with 22.9 percent in a seven-candidate field. Deal then won the closest gubernatorial primary runoff in Georgia history with 50.2 percent.

In 2018, Secretary of State Brian Kemp was 13.4 points behind Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle with 25.6 percent in the five-candidate race. In an unusual turn of events, Cagle actually lost support in the runoff (39.0 to 30.6 percent) with Kemp winning the nomination with a decisive 69.5 percent.

Five of the nine Democratic gubernatorial primary runoff winners also placed second in the popular vote in the initial primary:

• 1920: Former U.S. Senator Thomas Hardwick won 55.3 percent of popular runoff vote against Attorney General Clifford Walker after trailing by 3.7 points in the primary
• 1926: Former state legislator L.G. Hardman ran 2.2 points behind Georgia Highway Department Chair John Holder in the primary with 35.1 percent and then won 57.3 percent in the runoff
• 1966: Restaurateur Lester Maddox edged out State Senator Jimmy Carter for second place in a competitive primary with 23.6 percent – 5.8 points behind former Governor Ellis Arnall – and was nominated with 54.3 percent in the runoff
• 1974: Lieutenant Governor Maddox won 36.3 percent in the 12-candidate field, some 15.5 points ahead of State Representative George Busbee. Busbee won 59.9 percent of the runoff vote.
• 1982: U.S. Representative Bo Ginn had a 10.3-point advantage over State Representative Joe Frank Harris in the 10-candidate field, but Harris won the runoff with 55.0 percent

[Note: Prior to 1962, several nominees received a plurality (or even less than a plurality) of the popular vote but won enough county-unit convention delegates to avoid a runoff].

The six nominees via runoffs who also received the most popular votes in the primary are:

• 1930: Democratic State Representative Richard Russell (67.9 percent) over Secretary of State George Carswell
• 1970: Former Democratic State Senator Jimmy Carter (59.4 percent) over former Governor Carl Sanders
• 1974: Republican Macon Mayor Ronnie Thompson (50.6 percent) over Atlanta businessman Harold Dye
• 1990: Democratic Lieutenant Governor Zell Miller (61.8 percent) over Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young
• 1994: Republican and Norrell Corporation Chairman Guy Millner (59.4 percent) over former Waycross Mayor and School Board member John Knox
• 1998: Democratic State Representative Roy Barnes (82.9 percent) over Secretary of State Lewis Massey

Jackson will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election.

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Graham has drawn 15 of the 20 primary challengers to Republican U.S. Senate incumbents in state history

Five challengers toed the line to take on South Carolina U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in Tuesday’s GOP primary, but the second largest field for the office in state party history couldn’t quite force the four-term incumbent into a runoff.

With all counties reporting, Graham received 56.8 percent of the primary vote – just north of the 56.4 percent he won in the seven-candidate field he faced in 2014.

Graham defeated Greenville appliance store owner Mark Lynch by 27.9 points – the smallest primary victory margin in history by a GOP South Carolina U.S. Senator and the smallest in the state in 60 years.

Since the mid-1960s, when Strom Thurmond switched his party affiliation to Republican, there have been 14 reelection bids by sitting GOP South Carolina U.S. Senators.

In six of these cycles, incumbents did not face any opposition and avoided a primary altogether:

• Strom Thurmond: 1966, 1972, 1978, 1990
• Tim Scott: 2016 and 2022

Previously, the most competitive Republican primary involving a South Carolina U.S. Senator involved Thurmond when he sought his final term in 1996 at the age of 93. Thurmond drew two challengers and still received 60.6 percent of the vote – defeating State Representative Harold Worley of Myrtle Beach by 30.5 points.

The remaining seven reelection campaigns are:

• 1984: Thurmond defeated retired journalist and foreign service officer Bob Cunningham of Pawleys Island by 88.6 points in a two-candidate field
• 2008: Graham beat retired orthodontist Buddy Witherspoon by 33.6 points in a two-candidate field
• 2010: Jim DeMint coasted to a 66.0-point win against Charleston lawyer Susan McDonald Gaddy in a head-to-head matchup
• 2014 (s): Appointed Senator Tim Scott routed Randall Young of Greenville by 80.0 points in a two-candidate field
• 2014: Graham beat State Senator Lee Bright by 40.9 points in a seven-candidate race
• 2020: Graham defeated businessman Michael LaPierre of Travelers Rest by 50.7 points in a four-candidate field

Senator Graham has particularly brought challengers out of the woodwork. From 1966 through 2026, Republican U.S. Senators from South Carolina have drawn a total of 20 challengers.

Fifteen of them have run against Lindsey Graham – one in 2008, six in 2014, three in 2020, and five in 2026. Interestingly, Graham ran for the Republican nomination unopposed in 2002 after serving four terms in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The last time a U.S. Senator from either party had a more competitive race than Graham this cycle came in 1966’s special election when (self-) appointed Democrat Donald Russell lost his party’s nomination to former Governor Fritz Hollings by 21.6 points. Hollings is the last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in the state – also winning reelection in 1968, 1974, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 1998.

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Iowa has had open seats for governor and the U.S. Senate in just two of the previous 30 cycles in which both offices have been on the ballot since 1914

Iowa Democrats landed their preferred gubernatorial candidate this cycle when Auditor Rob Sand – the only party member currently holding statewide office – entered the race more than a year ago; Sand won Tuesday’s primary without opposition.

Yesterday’s primary also saw Democratic State Representative Josh Turek soundly defeat State Senator Zach Wahls, arguably giving the party its best shot at winning its first U.S. Senate seat since Tom Harkin in 2008.

On the Republican side, three-term U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson coasted as expected to win the U.S. Senate nomination by nearly 50 points over former State Senator Jim Carlin while farmer Zach Lahn turned heads by notching a narrow plurality win over three-term U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra in the race for governor.

Although the party has lost its footing in the Hawkeye State in recent cycles, Democrats are as well-positioned now to sweep the offices of governor and U.S. Senate as they could possibly hope for in the GOP-leaning state, with both offices landing on the ballot during the midterms of a Republican president who is currently enduring very low approval ratings.

Additionally, Iowa is in the rare position of electing candidates to both of these seats in 2026 without an incumbent on the ballot.

That has occurred in only two of 30 cycles in Iowa since the country began electing U.S. Senators directly in 1913.

The first such election took place in 1960 when Republican U.S. Senator Thomas Martin retired after one term and two-term Democratic Governor Herschel Loveless opted to run instead for Martin’s seat – thus opening up both seats.

Republicans won each seat in competitive races: GOP State Senator Jack Miller defeated Loveless by 3.8 points and Republican Attorney General Norman Erbe beat sitting Lieutenant Governor Edward McManus by 4.3 points. Richard Nixon carried Iowa by 13.5 points at the top of the GOP ticket.

Similarly, at the end of the decade in 1968, four-term GOP U.S. Senator Bourke Hickenlooper retired, prompting Democratic Governor Harold Hughes to run for the open seat.

In this case, Democrats flipped the open U.S. Senate seat with Hughes eking out a 0.6-point win over State Representative David Stanley but the GOP took back the governorship with former state party Chairman Robert Ray defeating Treasurer Paul Franzenburg by 8.2 points.

So how unusual would it be for Democrats to pull off wins in these two offices in 2026?

Democrats have simultaneously notched victories in elections for governor and U.S. Senator in just three of these 30 cycles since 1914, with two instances occurring during major national landslides.

In 1932, Republican U.S. Senator Smith Brookhart lost his party’s nomination (and ran in the general as a Progressive) while former Democratic Dubuque newspaper editor Louis Murphy easily defeated GOP businessman Henry Field of Shenandoah by 13.9 points.

In the race for governor, former Des Moines Ford dealer Clyde Herring unseated one-term incumbent Dan Turner by 5.5 points.

Four years later, with Franklin Roosevelt again at the top of the ticket, Lieutenant Governor Nelson Kraschel scratched out a 0.2-point victory against State Senator George Wilson to become governor while Democrats swept general and special elections for the U.S. Senate behind two-term U.S. Representative Guy Gillette and the aforementioned Governor Herring.

It would take another 66 years – after 17 failed attempts – for Democrats to again win each of these offices during the same cycle.

In 2002, the party accomplished this feat behind popular incumbents: Governor Tom Vilsack won a second term and U.S. Senator Tom Harkin was reelected to his fourth.

But if Democrats should lose both races in 2026 as well as fail to win any of the offices of auditor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, and secretary of agriculture, it would mark the first time the party did not hold a single statewide office since the Election of 1954.

During that cycle, the GOP swept the offices of governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general (in special and general elections), treasurer, secretary of agriculture, and commerce commissioner, plus three seats to the supreme court and one to the U.S. Senate (already holding the other seat in the chamber).

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