Only four states have elected governors from the opposing party of the sitting president over the last two cycles

Heading into the November elections, Democrats are looking to flip several GOP-held governorships to take control of a majority of these state executive offices nationwide for the first time since heading into the 2010 cycle.

Democrats, who govern 24 states, are eying several opportunities (e.g. Iowa, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Alaska) with an expected national tailwind buoyed by President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings.

Republicans, meanwhile, see Kansas, Arizona, and Wisconsin as their best chances to flip seats in their own right.

The notion that the sitting president’s party might yield some seats to the opposition during midterm cycles is not a novelty.

But with states increasingly demonstrating monolithic partisan tendencies (as established on this site across multiple reports), it has become less common for states to be reliable ‘naysayers’ – voting against the party of the sitting president no matter which is in office.

Through the 2025 election cycle, there are currently only four states whose gubernatorial vote preference was not that of the sitting president’s party in two or more consecutive cycles.

Nevada leads the way at four straight cycles: backing Republican Brian Sandoval under Barack Obama (2010, 2014), Democrat Steve Sisolak under Trump (2018), and Republican Joe Lombardo under Joe Biden (2022).

Virginia is next with three – voting for Democrat Ralph Northam in 2017, Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2021, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger in 2025.

That leaves just Louisiana (Democrat John Bel Edwards in 2019; Republican Jeff Landry in 2023) and New Hampshire (Republicans Chris Sununu in 2022 and Kelly Ayotte in 2024) at two each.

This is in stark contrast to the much larger number of states that tallied gubernatorial naysayer streaks of six or more consecutive cycles well into the 2010s:

• Wyoming (nine): 1982-2014
• Tennessee (eight): 1986-2014
• New Jersey (eight): 1989-2017
• Kansas (eight): 1990-2018
• New Mexico (eight): 1990-2018
• Wisconsin (eight): 1994-2018
• Oklahoma (seven): 1990-2014
• Maine (seven): 1994-2018
• Michigan (seven): 1994-2018
• Arizona (six): 1994-2014

Virginia also had a naysayer streak of nine straight elections (1977 to 2009) to bring their current tally to 12 of the last 13 cycles.

Only three states have voted into office a gubernatorial nominee from the same party of the sitting president during each of the last two elections: Arizona (Republican Doug Ducey in 2018 and Democrat Katie Hobbs in 2022), Maryland (Republican Larry Hogan in 2018 and Democrat Wes Moore in 2022), and Massachusetts (Republican Charlie Baker in 2018 and Democrat Maura Healey in 2022).

Vermont owns the longest such streak in recent years, backing the gubernatorial nominee of the president’s party in 11 consecutive cycles from 1994 through 2014.

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Parties in seven additional states can tie their best mark for consecutive wins this November

Gubernatorial elections will take place in 36 states this cycle and Democrats and Republicans in more than half of them can extend or tie all-time party record winning streaks for the office.

Overall, 18 states are in the midst of record partisan winning streaks in elections for governor:

• 13 on the Republican side: Utah (12), Idaho (8), Texas (8), Florida (7), Alabama (6), Georgia (6), Indiana (6), Mississippi (6), South Carolina (6), Oklahoma (4), Tennessee (4), Arkansas (3), and Missouri (3, tied with 1920 to 1928 and 1980 to 1988)
• Five for the Democrats: Oregon (11), Washington (11), Delaware (9), California (4), and Minnesota (4)

Twelve of these states host elections for the office in 2026 with less than a handful expected to host competitive races that might see those streaks come to an end (e.g. Georgia, Oregon, Texas).

Parties in an additional seven states are on the cusp of tying all-time marks this November:

• South Dakota Republicans (12 in a row, 1978-present): Poised to tie the GOP mark of 13 set from 1900 to 1924
• Colorado Democrats (five, 2006-present): Aiming to equal the party record of six straight set twice previously – 1926 to 1936 and 1974 to 1994
• Connecticut Democrats (four, 2010-present): Looking to tie a mark set 150 years ago when Democrats won five consecutive one-year terms from 1873 to 1876 (with two elections taking place in 1876)
• Wyoming Republicans (four, 2010-present): Winning by an average of 43.2 points during their current streak, the Cowboy State GOP is in great shape to tie the party record of five straight wins set from 1894 to 1906
• Pennsylvania Democrats (three, 2014-present): Popular Governor Josh Shapiro looks to tie the Democratic record of four straight wins set from 1838 to 1847
• Alaska Republicans (two, 2018-present): The GOP also won three in a row from 2002 to 2010
• Wisconsin Democrats (two, 2018-present): The party only won back-to-back-to-back contests once, from 1958 to 1962

No current Democratic or Republican streak is anywhere close to touching the longest gubernatorial winnings streaks in party history.

On the Democratic side, a win by Governor Tina Kotek would break a tie with Washington to place Oregon all alone in 14th place for states with the longest Democratic streaks. Southern states almost completely populate that leader board: Texas (51 in a row), Georgia (50), Arkansas (47), South Carolina (37), Alabama (35), Mississippi (28), Louisiana (21), Virginia (21), Tennessee (20), North Carolina (18), New Hampshire (14), Oklahoma (14), and Florida (13).

On the Republican side, a win by Governor Larry Rhoden in South Dakota would equal the state’s record of 13 in a row as mentioned above – which is good for the 10th largest state GOP winning streak for the office nationwide.

Northeastern and Midwestern states – Vermont (62 in a row), Rhode Island (24), Maine (22), New Hampshire (21), Iowa (19), Minnesota (19), Wisconsin (19), Massachusetts (18), and Michigan (14) – fill up the #1 through #9 slots. [Republicans also had separate winnings streaks of 14 in a row in Maine, 19 and 14 in a row in New Hampshire, and 16 in a row in Iowa].

Look for additional Smart Politics reports on current partisan electoral streaks to be published before the midterms.

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Crowley’s narrow win was the third closest primary out of 96 major party contests for the office since 1912

It was a late night in Wisconsin before its competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary race was called with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (pictured) edging out State Assemblywoman Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point.

With just an estimated few thousand votes left to count, Crowley holds a 0.48-point advantage over Hong – good for the third most narrowly decided primary for governor out of eight-dozen held over the last 110+ years.

Since the first contest in 1912, there have been 96 gubernatorial primaries for the Democratic, Republican, and Progressive (1934-1944) parties.

Crowley’s win was the closest in 86 years, when former Kaukauna Mayor and dentist William Sullivan defeated state Democratic Chairman Gustav Keller of Appleton by 0.32 points with just 24.3 percent in the six-candidate 1942 field.

The biggest nail-biter in Wisconsin gubernatorial primary history came on the Republican side in 1918. Two-term Governor Emanuel Philipp edged State Senator Roy Wilcox of Eau Claire by 0.23 points with 38.1 percent of the primary vote.

From 1912 through 2026 a total of 16 of 96 primaries for governor have been decided by single digits.

Seven on the Democratic side:

• 1914 (7.0 points): Milwaukee County Judge John Karel (53.5 percent) over U.S. District Attorney John Aylward of Madison (46.5 percent)
• 1922 (9.2 points): La Crosse Mayor Arthur Bentley (54.6 percent) over former paper manufacturer executive Karl Mathie (45.4 percent)
• 1940 (6.6 points): Former GOP Governor Francis McGovern (38.9 percent) over former Milwaukee city purchasing agent William Callahan (32.3 percent)
• 1942 (0.3 points): Kaukauna Mayor and dentist William Sullivan (24.3 percent) over state Democratic Chairman Gustav Keller of Appleton (24.0 percent)
• 1982 (3.9 points): Former State Assemblyman Tony Earl (45.9 percent) over former Governor Martin Schrieber (42.0 percent)
• 2002 (3.9 points): Attorney General Jim Doyle (38.4 percent) over U.S. Representative Tom Barrett (34.5 percent)
• 2026 (0.5 points): Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (39.8 percent) over State Assemblywoman Francesca Hong (39.3 percent)

Seven on the Republican side:

• 1918 (0.2 points): Governor Emanuel Philipp (38.0 percent) over State Senator Roy Wilcox of Eau Claire (37.8 percent)
• 1920 (2.9 points): Attorney General John Blaine (29.9 percent) over Wilcox (27.0 percent)
• 1926 (8.1 points): Secretary of State Fred Zimmerman (46.8 percent) over Attorney General Herman Ekern (38.7 percent)
• 1928 (4.1 points): Plumbing manufacturer executive Walter Kohler, Sr. (43.7 percent) over U.S. Representative Joseph Beck (39.6 percent)
• 1936 (3.6 points): Former Chippewa County Attorney Alexander Wiley (51.8 percent) over newspaper Ashland editor John Chapple (48.2 percent)
• 1946 (3.4 points): Governor Walter Goodland (42.5 percent) over state Adjutant General Ralph Immell (39.1 percent)
• 2022 (5.1 points): Business executive Tim Michels (47.1 percent) over former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch (42.0 percent)

And two for the Progressives:

• 1940 (6.2 points): Former state Attorney General Orland Loomis (33.1 percent) over Chippewa Falls attorney Harold Stafford (26.9 percent)
• 1944 (0.8 points): Aid Association for Lutherans president Alexander Benz (33.1 percent) of Appleton over Kenosha attorney Leo Vaudreuil (32.3 percent)

In Tuesday’s Republican primary, U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany easily won nomination with 95.3 percent of the vote. It was the most support received by a non-incumbent in a contested GOP primary for governor in state history, besting Lieutenant Governor Jack Olson’s mark of 91.4 percent in 1970.

The average primary victory margin across all 96 races has been 53.0 points including 30 gubernatorial nominations that went uncontested.

The seven-candidate Democratic field this cycle was the second-largest in a gubernatorial primary in state history.

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The hotly contested Democratic primary is within a whisker of becoming the most narrowly decided U.S. Senate primary in state history

With more than 98 percent of the expected vote counted, Abdul El-Sayed has defeated U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan’s open seat U.S. Senate race.

While official results will tell the tale of the tape, as of Wednesday afternoon, El-Sayed (48.49 percent) holds a 0.98-point lead over Stevens (47.51 percent).

If that stands, the 2026 Democratic battle will go down as the second narrowest victory margin in a U.S. Senate primary in Michigan history.

That mark is currently held by the six-candidate 1994 Democratic race that saw six-term U.S. Representative Bob Carr (24.01 percent) edge out State Senator Anna Pollock (23.06 percent) by 0.95 points.

Only one other Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary has been decided by less than 15 points. In 1936, two-term U.S. Representative Prentiss Brown was nominated by 2.1 points with 36.3 percent of the vote over Louis Ward of Pontiac, a former business representative of radio priest Charles Coughlin.

Smart Politics previously reported how unusual it is for Michigan Democrats to host competitive races for U.S. Senator with 27 of the 40 nominees prior to El-Sayed winning uncontested.

El-Sayed’s ~48.5 percent will go down as the sixth plurality Democratic primary victory for the office.

In addition to the aforementioned Carr and Brown, the remaining three plurality winners were State Liquor Control Commission Chair Frank Picard in 1934 (42.9 percent), five-term U.S. Representative Donald Riegle in 1976 (44.3 percent) and former Detroit City Councilor Carl Levin in 1978 (38.9 percent).

On the Republican side of the ballot, former seven-term U.S. Representative Mike Rogers was nominated without opposition – the 16th time Michigan Republicans have nominated a candidate for U.S. Senator in such fashion.

Smart Politics recently documented how Rogers (the GOP’s 2024 nominee for the office) is looking to buck history in the state: failed Michigan U.S. Senate candidates have subsequently run for the office 12 additional times during the primary era – losing all 12 bids.

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The seven-candidate Democratic field is second largest in state history and includes four of the 12 major party candidacies for the office by women

Wisconsin’s Democratic primary to vie for the seat of retiring Governor Tony Evers has entertained political observers with enough twists and turns worthy of a soap opera.

In the end, seven candidates will appear on the August 11th primary ballot – including two who suspended their campaigns (Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez and former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation CEO Melissa Hughes) and a third formerly withdrawn candidate who only recently jumped back into the race (Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley).

The 2026 Democratic primary field goes down in the history books as the second largest of the more than 140 gubernatorial party primaries in Wisconsin history since 1912.

The largest gubernatorial primary field for any political party in Wisconsin history is 10 candidates – set by the Democrats just eight years ago in 2018 when Evers easily defeated nine other opponents en route to unseating Governor Scott Walker.

Democrats have placed more than four candidates on the primary ballot in just two other cycles across the 45 held since the first such contest in 1912:

• 1942: Kaukauna dentist William Sullivan emerged victorious from a six-candidate field by the narrowest victory margin for the office in party history (0.3 points) with a record low 24.3 percent plurality
• 2012: Milwaukee Mayor and former U.S. Representative Tom Barrett cruised to a 24-point victory against ex-Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk in a five-candidate field

The Republican Party, which has consolidated support behind U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in a two-candidate race this cycle, peaked at six gubernatorial candidates twice and five candidates in four other cycles:

• 1914: Milwaukee Police Commissioner Emanuel Philipp won a six-candidate primary with a plurality of 35.1 percent
• 1920: Attorney General John Blaine was nominated from six candidates with 29.9 percent of the vote – the lowest support ever received by a GOP gubernatorial nominee
• 1944: Ascended Governor Walter Goodland easily held off four challengers with a 47.2 percent plurality victory
• 1946: Governor Goodland was renominated with 42.5 percent – edging Wisconsin Adjutant General Ralph Immell by 3.4 points in a five-candidate field
• 1986: State Assembly Minority Leader Tommy Thompson cruised to a 29.8-point victory against four challengers in the first of his four nomination victories
• 2022: Businessman Tim Michels was nominated with a 47.1 percent plurality in a five-candidate field

The Progressive Party also fielded five candidates once during the six cycles in which they held primaries for governor from 1934 to 1944: in 1940, former Attorney General and state legislator Orland Loomis was nominated with 33.1 percent – 6.2 points ahead of Chippewa Falls attorney Harold Stafford. [Other third parties to appear on a gubernatorial primary ballot over the last century-plus include the Socialists (15 times), Prohibitionists (11), Libertarians (five), Wisconsin Greens (four), People’s Progressives (twice), American (twice), Conservatives (twice), Labor-Farmers (twice), U.S. Taxpayers (twice), and Social Democrats (once)].

In 2018, Evers was victorious by 25.5 points, but with a plurality of 41.8 percent. This cycle’s winner is likewise expected to fall well short of breaking the tape with a majority.

Only six other Democrats have been nominated for governor with a plurality of the vote across the previous 44 cycles:

• 1932: Madison Mayor Albert Schmedeman (44.0 percent) in a three-candidate field
• 1940: Former GOP Governor Francis McGovern (38.9 percent) in a four-candidate field
• 1942: Former Kaukauna Mayor and dentist William Sullivan (24.3 percent) in a six-candidate field
• 1966: Lieutenant Governor Patrick Lucey (45.2 percent) in a four-candidate field
• 1982: Former Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Secretary Tony Earl (45.9 percent) in a three-candidate field
• 2002: Attorney General Jim Doyle (38.4 percent) in a three-candidate field

The 2026 Democratic primary is also noteworthy with four women appearing on the ballot: Assemblywoman Francesca Hong, State Senator Kelda Roys, and the aforementioned Rodriguez and Hughes who suspended their campaigns.

Only once has a woman been nominated for governor by a major party in Wisconsin – Madison School Board member Mary Burke in 2014 secured the Democratic nod. That occurred 12 years after the first woman to ever appear on a major party primary ballot for governor in the Badger State: Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk in 2002. Falk placed third in a competitive contest with 27.2 percent of the vote behind AG Doyle and U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett.

Other women to run in the Democratic primary are Falk again during the 2012 recall election, State Senator Kathleen Vinehout in 2012, Republican-recruited protest candidate Gladys Huber in 2012, and the aforementioned Roys and Vinehout in 2018.

Republican primary voters have had the opportunity to nominate a woman for governor only once: in 2022, former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch fell five points short in a five-candidate race won by businessman Tim Michels.

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Andy Biggs sets a GOP record for a non-incumbent in his blowout victory

July has largely been summer break for state primaries, although Arizona voters had their chance to weigh in on their candidate preferences on Tuesday.

At the top of the ticket, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs ran unopposed for her party’s nomination.

That marked just the third time a Democratic governor did not face any opposition in his or her quest for another term out of 20 renomination bids dating back to statehood.

Hobbs joins Gov. Ernest McFarland who ran unopposed for a second term in 1956 and Gov. Janet Napolitano who did the same in 2006.

Each of the first 14 times a Democratic governor sought reelection there was at least one opponent on the primary ballot. Ten were victorious:

• George Hunt in 1914, 1916, 1924, 1926, and 1928
• Benjamin Moeur in 1934
• Sidney Osborn in 1942, 1944, and 1946
• Dan Garvey in 1948

Four others lost renomination:

• 1932: Gov. George Hunt lost to Tempe Normal School Board member Benjamin Moeur by 6.2 points
• 1936: Gov. Moeur was defeated by former Maricopa County Judge Rawghlie Stanford by 12.0 points
• 1940: Gov. Robert Jones came up 4.5 points short to former Arizona Secretary of State Sidney Osborn
• 1950: Gov. Dan Garvey lost to State Auditor Ana Frohmiller by 6.6 points

Other Democratic governors winning renomination in contested primaries were Sam Goddard in 1966 and Bruce Babbitt in 1978 and 1982.

By contrast, Republican governors have run unopposed in eight of 12 attempts:

• Tom Campbell in 1922
• John Phillips in 1930
• John Howard Pyle in 1952 and 1954
• Paul Fannin in 1960 and 1962
• Jack Williams in 1968 and 1970

The remaining four gubernatorial incumbents were also nominated in their bids for another term for a perfect 12-for-12: Fife Symington (1994), Jane Dee Hull (1998), Jan Brewer (2010), and Doug Ducey (2018).

In Tuesday’s Republican race, with nearly 85 percent of the vote counted, U.S. Representative Andy Biggs pummeled his three opponents with a ~59-point victory over fellow U.S. House delegation member David Schweikert. Biggs is poised to carry at least 70 percent of the vote in each of the state’s 15 counties.

Biggs’ victory margin will easily go down as the largest in a GOP primary by a non-incumbent – besting Phoenix accountant Jerrie Lee’s 42.6-point win in 1944 against Arizona Citrus Growers’ Association president Harry Michael to seal his fourth consecutive Republican gubernatorial nomination.

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