A record number of Republicans are vying for their party’s U.S. Senate nomination this cycle

Although the race to replace seven-term Republican Mitch McConnell has only two viable candidates to win the nomination on Tuesday – seven-term U.S. Representative Andy Barr and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron – the floodgates opened this cycle with a record number of GOP hopefuls on the 2026 primary ballot.

After businessman Nate Morris withdrew from the race just a few weeks before Election Day, a final tally of 11 Republicans landed on the ballot.

That breaks the previous party record of eight candidates who ran in 2020 when McConnell was nominated for the seventh and final time for the office. McConnell coasted to the nomination with 82.8 percent of the vote with no other candidate receiving more than six percent.

McConnell only received one free pass to the nomination over his long career. That came in 2002 en route to his fourth term.

The 60.2 percent McConnell won in his high profile 2014 contest against eventual Governor Matt Bevin was the weakest showing by an incumbent in a Kentucky U.S. Senate primary since Democrat Alben Barkley received 56.1 percent in a seven-candidate field featuring Governor Happy Chandler.

An average of 3.2 Republicans have appeared on U.S. Senate primary ballots in Kentucky across the 44 special and regular primaries since 1914.

The state record for the largest number of U.S. Senate primary candidates was set by the Democrats in 1968 for Republican Thruston Morton’s open seat.

That primary of 12 Democrats included the state’s first woman commissioner Katherine Peden of Hopkinsville (Commissioner of Commerce, 1963-1967), former State Representative and U.S. Representative John Brown, former State Representative and State Democratic Chair Foster Ockerman of Lexington, former State Representative Ted Osborn of Lexington, and Fort Mitchell teacher Dixie Lee.

Peden handily won the nomination by 17.1 points over Brown with 42.5 percent of the vote but lost the general election to Jefferson County Judge Marlow Cook.

An average of 3.9 Democrats have sought their party’s nomination for the office since 1914.

With seven Democrats in the race in 2026, the collective 18 major party candidates on the ballot on Tuesday ties a state record set in 2020 when the aforementioned eight Republicans (won by McConnell) and 10 Democrats (Amy McGrath) ran that cycle.

McGrath and 2022 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Charles Booker are the leading contenders on the Democratic side of the ballot.

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Partisan control of the chamber could flip for the third time in five cycles for the first time in 75 years 

Thanks to David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, for inquiring about this topic.

The odds of Democrats taking back control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the 120th Congress seem to fluctuate by the week as new states delve in and out of mid-cycle redistricting measures.

If Democrats do win a majority of U.S. House seats this November, it would be the third time the chamber has flipped in five election cycles – following the 2018 (GOP to Democratic) and 2022 (Democratic to GOP) midterms.

How unusual would that be?

Over the course of the last 119 Congresses, there have only been five periods during which partisan turnover was this frequent – with the most recent example occurring three-quarters of a century ago.

27th to 31st Congresses (1841-1851): Flipped four out of five cycles

After being out of power for four years, the Whig Party rode the back of William Harrison’s decisive 1840 win and netted more than 30 seats to take a 142-98 seat advantage in the chamber.

However, Harrison died after a month in office and ascended President John Tyler was not popular. As a result, the 1842 midterms saw the Democrats net nearly four-dozen seats to win back control by a 147 to 72 margin.

The Democratic-controlled House only lost a handful of seats in 1844 as their nominee James Polk was elected president, but the Whigs flipped the chamber during the 1846 midterms by netting more than three-dozen seats for a 116 to 100 advantage. The 30th Congress was the last time Whigs would control the House.

Democrats returned to power after the 1848 election despite their party’s nominee Lewis Cass losing the open presidential race to Whig and war hero Zachary Taylor. Democrats rang in the new 31st Congress with a slim margin of control (113 to 108 seats).

34th to 36th Congresses (1855-1861): Flipped in three consecutive cycles

During the period of great political upheaval heading into the Civil War, the U.S. House saw the power of the gavel switch control in three consecutive cycles.

Democrats lost control (100 to 83 to the Oppositionists) after the longest drawn out vote for Speaker in the chamber’s history in 1855 as the Opposition caucus elected Massachusetts Know Nothing Nathaniel Banks as Speaker.

James Buchanan’s decisive 1856 electoral vote majority and popular vote plurality had legs down the ballot as Democrats netted nearly 50 seats and enjoyed a 132 to 90 seat advantage over the recently formed Republican Party for the 35th Congress.

Republicans subsequently netted more than 20 seats during the 1858 midterms to control the 36th Congress (116 to 83).

44th to 48th Congresses (1875-1885): Flipped three out of five cycles

During the 1874 midterms near the end of Reconstruction, the Democratic Party took control of the U.S. House for the first time since the late 1850s, turning a more than 100-seat deficit into a 182 to 103 seat advantage over the Republicans.

Democrats lost more than three dozen seats during the 1876 and 1878 cycles but retained control of the chamber.

However, James Garfield’s narrow victory in 1880 helped Republicans flip the House, holding 151 seats to 128 for the Democrats at the start of the 47th Congress.

Democrats easily won the House back during the 1882 midterms with 196 seats to just 117 for the Republicans.

[The chamber also flipped three times out of five cycles overlapping with the aforementioned Elections of 1880 and 1882 and ending with the GOP winning back control in 1888].

51st to 54th Congresses (1889-1897): Flipped three out of four cycles

After three terms under Democratic control, the U.S. House flipped to the GOP after the 1888 election cycle (179 to 152) despite President Grover Cleveland winning the popular vote.

But Democrats rode a tremendous wave during the 1890 midterms, gaining more than 80 seats to begin the 52nd Congress with 238 seats compared to just 86 for the Republicans.

Republicans cut into that advantage in 1892 despite Cleveland unseating President Benjamin Harrison, but the GOP did not take back control of the House until the 54th Congress following the 1894 midterms – handily doing so by flipping 110+ seats (254 to 93).

 80th to 84th Congresses (1947-1957): Flipped four out of five cycles

Following World War II, Republicans took back control of the House for the first time in 16 years – netting more than four-dozen seats (246 to 188).

Democrats gained 75 seats behind President Harry Truman at the top of the ticket in 1948 to build a large enough advantage (263 to 171 seats) that kept them in power even after Republicans netted more than two dozen seats during the 1950 midterms.

In 1952, however, Republicans rode the coattails of their party’s very popular standard bearer Dwight Eisenhower to erase that deficit in the House entirely, entering the 83rd Congress with 221 seats compared to 213 for the Democrats.

But even Eisenhower saw his party endure a pushback during the midterms, with Democrats flipping the chamber in 1954 – 232 to 203 – enjoying that majority status until after the Republican Revolution of 1994.

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Wisconsin Democrats have netted an average of one seat per cycle across the 23 midterm elections held during Republican presidencies

Despite multiple efforts by Wisconsin Democrats to persuade the state’s judiciary to order the redrawing of its congressional districts in recent years, the party has had no success.

Democrats – who have won more Wisconsin statewide elections during the 2020s (five) than their GOP counterparts (three) – only hold two of the state’s eight U.S. House seats. [Democratic-backed nonpartisan candidates for the state Supreme Court and Superintendent of Public Instruction are also undefeated in five contests during this period].

However, if the expected national partisan winds reach the Midwest this November, Democrats are bullish about their prospects to win back the state’s western 3rd CD (held by Democrat Ron Kind for 13 terms until his retirement in 2022) and hope the stars align for them to be on the plus side of what is likely to be a single-digit contest in the southern 1st CD.

It is often said that the sitting president’s party usually sheds U.S. House seats during midterm election cycles, and Wisconsin Democrats have certainly taken advantage of that trend over the decades.

Across the 23 midterm election cycles with a Republican president in the White House, Democrats have netted U.S. House seats in 14 cycles, lost seats in just two, and had no net change in seven.

Overall, Democrats have netted 24 congressional seats in Wisconsin during midterms with a Republican president, or an average of one seat per cycle.

The most recent example was in 2006 when physician Steve Kagen flipped the state’s open 8th CD by 2.1 points after Republican incumbent Mark Green decided to run for the U.S. Senate.

The biggest Democratic turnaround in Wisconsin came in 1890 when the party netted 86 seats nationwide. Democrats flipped six seats to turn a 7-2 deficit into an 8-1 advantage. The party flipped the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and 9th CDs – knocking soon to be political icon Robert La Follette out of office plus three other incumbents along the way.

Democrats also netted U.S. House seats in these 12 other midterm cycles under Republican presidencies:

• 1862 (+3): Former Attorney General and Milwaukee Mayor James Brown unseated three-term incumbent John Potter in the 1st CD while former State Senator Charles Eldredge of Fond du Lac and Green Lake County Judge Ezra Wheeler won newly created seats after reapportionment doubled the state’s delegation to six seats
• 1870 (+1): Railroad president Alexander Mitchell of Milwaukee flipped the open 1st CD
• 1874 (+1): Circuit Court Judge George Cate of Stevens Point unseated freshman Alexander McDill of the 8th CD
• 1882 (+4): Assemblyman John Winans of Janesville unseated five-term incumbent Charles Williams in the 1st CD, former Waukesha County Attorney Daniel Sumner won the open 2nd CD, Dane County Attorney Burr Jones unseated three-term incumbent George Hazelton in the 3rd CD, and former La Crosse Mayor Gilbert Woodward won the open 7th CD (note: the state added one seat during reapportionment during this cycle)
• 1902 (+1): Former Sheboygan Falls City Council President Charles Weisse won the open 6th CD (note: the state added one seat during reapportionment during this cycle)
• 1906 (+1): Platteville Mayor James Murphy unseated seven-term incumbent Joseph Babcock in the 3rd CD
• 1910 (+1): Kewaunee County Attorney Thomas Konop unseated two-term incumbent Gustav Küstermann in the 9th CD
• 1930 (+1): Former two-term U.S. Representative Michael Reilly of Fond du Lac won the open 6th CD (and simultaneously won the special election to the seat)
• 1954 (+1): Milwaukee School Board member Henry Reuss unseated three-term incumbent Charles Kersten in the 5th CD
• 1958 (+2): Former State Senator and Racine attorney Gerald Flynn won the open 1st CD and Jefferson and Dodge County Justice of the Peace Robert Kastenmeier of Watertown won a rematch against freshman Donald Tewes in the 2nd CD
• 1970 (+1): Marquette University economics professor Les Aspin of Racine unseated four-term incumbent Henry Schadeberg in the 1st CD
• 1974 (+2): Assemblyman Alvin Baldus of Menomonie unseated seven-term incumbent Vernon Thomson in the 3rd CD and St. Norbert College professor Robert Cornell of De Pere unseated freshman Harold Froehlich in the 8th CD

In 1990, the aforementioned Kastenmeier – then a 16-term Democratic incumbent – lost his 2nd CD seat to Republican television anchor Scott Klug of Madison. This marked the only Democratic seat to flip in a midterm election under a Republican president in Wisconsin history.

The only other cycle in which Democrats technically lost a seat was in 2002, when reapportionment reduced the number of Wisconsin U.S. House seats from nine to eight. Five-term Milwaukee Democrat Tom Barrett chose not to run for reelection under the new map and instead launched a failed gubernatorial campaign. All eight incumbents – four Democrats and four Republicans – won reelection but Democrats were down a seat.

There was no net change in the number of Democrats in Wisconsin’s U.S. House delegation after the GOP presidency-held midterms of 1878, 1898, 1922, 1926, 1982, 1986, and 2018.

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The tenure of fewer than two-dozen U.S. Senators includes service in each of their state’s seats during the direct election era

Thanks to Smart Politics reader Brad K. for inquiring about this topic.

With Democrats looking to expand the 2026 map as large as possible to pry away enough GOP-held U.S. Senate seats to win back control of the chamber, one of the states they hope to flip is Ohio – where recently unseated Sherrod Brown is poised to face appointed incumbent Jon Husted.

Brown, a former three-term U.S. Senator from the state’s Class I seat, is attempting to become the 23rd member of the chamber to serve in each of his state’s senate seats during the direct election era.

Over the last 223 years since statehood, four Ohioans have served in the U.S. Senate from both seats, with Democrat Howard Metzenbaum the only one to do so since the 1800s.

Metzenbaum was appointed to the Class III seat in January 1974 by Governor John Gilligan following the resignation of Republican William Saxbe to become U.S. Attorney General.

Metzenbaum then lost the Democratic primary that cycle to retired astronaut John Glenn but won his party’s nomination to the Class I seat in 1976 and returned to D.C. by unseating Robert Taft, Jr. in the general election in a rematch of the 1970 contest.

Three Ohio U.S. Senators served in both seats prior to the direct election era:

• Democratic-Republican Thomas Worthington: 1803-1807 (Class III) and 1810-1814 (Class I)
• Anti-Jacksonian / Whig Thomas Ewing: 1831-1837 (Class III) and 1850-1851 (Class I)
• Republican John Sherman: 1861-1877 (Class III) and 1881-1897 (Class I)

Arizona’s Jon Kyl was the most recent U.S. Senator to accomplish this feat across the nation following his appointment by Governor Doug Ducey in September 2018 to fill the vacancy after John McCain’s death. Kyl served four months in the Class III seat, having previously held office from 1995 to 2013 in the Class I seat.

Three other U.S. Senators served from both seats with at least one stint partially in the 21st Century:

• Washington Republican Slade Gorton: 1981-1987 (Class III) and 1989-2001 (Class I)
• North Dakota Democrat Kent Conrad: 1987-1992 (Class III) and 1992-2013 (Class I)
• New Jersey Democrat Frank Lautenberg: 1982-2001 (Class I) and 2003-2013 (Class II)

Brown would be the first U.S. Senator whose tenure in both seats fell entirely during the 21st Century.

Four states have had two U.S. Senators hold both seats during the direct election era.

Iowa:

• Republican Smith Brookhart: 1922-1926 (Class II) and 1927-1933 (Class III)
• Democrat Guy Gillette: 1936-1945 (Class III) and 1949-1955 (Class II)

Massachusetts:

• Democrat David Walsh: 1919-1925 (Class II) and 1926-1947 (Class I)
• Republican Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr.: 1937-1944 (Class II) and 1947-1953 (Class I)

New Jersey:

• Republican Warren Barbour: 1931-1937 (Class II) and 1938-1943 (Class I)
• Democrat Frank Lautenberg: 1982-2001 (Class I) and 2003-2013 (Class II)

West Virginia:

• Democrat Matthew Neely: 1923-1929 (Class I) and 1931-1941 (Class II)
• Republican Chapman Revercomb: 1943-1949 (Class II) and 1956-1959 (Class I)

The remaining U.S. Senators who represented their states from each seat are:

• Oklahoma Democrat Thomas Gore: 1907-1921 (Class III) and 1931-1937 (Class II)
• Delaware Republican T. Coleman du Pont: 1921-1922 (Class I) and 1925-1928 (Class II)
• Kentucky Democrat Alben Barkley: 1927-1949 (Class III) and 1955-1956 (Class II)
• Idaho Republican John Thomas: 1928-1933 (Class III) and 1940-1945 (Class II)
• Wyoming Democrat Joseph O’Mahoney: 1934-1953 (Class I) and 1954-1961 (Class II)
• Indiana Republican William Jenner: 1944-1945 (Class III) and 1947-1959 (Class I)
• Minnesota DFLer Hubert Humphrey: 1949-1964 (Class II) and 1971-1978 (Class I)
• Connecticut Republican William Purtell: 1952 (Class III) and 1953-1959 (Class I)
• Arizona Republican Barry Goldwater: 1953-1965 (Class I) and 1969-1987 (Class III)
• Texas Democrat William Blakley: 1957 (Class I) and 1961 (Class II)

The aforementioned North Dakotan Kent Conrad is of note because he moved from the state’s Class III to Class I seat in 1992 without a gap in service – unlike the other senators listed in this report.

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The party is poised to field a record number of U.S. Senate primary candidates against a well-funded GOP incumbent despite a near century electoral drought

When it comes to U.S. politics over the last century, perhaps nothing has been more certain than Republicans winning U.S. Senate seats in Kansas.

The GOP has reeled in a party-record 33 consecutive victories following Democratic incumbent George McGill’s victory in 1932.

A win this November would land Kansas Republicans the all-time mark of 34 in a row during the direct election era – breaking a tie with Louisiana Democrats from 1914 through 2002.

By all accounts, the Sunflower State should not be on anyone’s radar as Republicans attempt to fend off a Democratic attempt to pry back control of the nation’s upper legislative chamber this November.

Republicans are running U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, who has several million dollars of cash on hand for his reelection bid. Marshall also currently does not face any opposition in the August 4th primary, with a little more than five weeks until the filing deadline closes on June 1st.

Moreover, Kansas GOP nominees have won the last 13 elections since 1990 by an average of 31.4 points – the seventh largest margin in the country during this 18-cycle period. Each victory has been by a double-digit margin.

And yet, Democrats have come out of the woodwork this cycle with 10 candidates announcing their campaigns to challenge Sen. Marshall. The Kansas Democratic Party is not known for having a particularly deep bench and only one of these announced candidates holds political office (first term State Senator Patrick Schmidt of Topeka).

Barring a last-minute (and potentially field-clearing) candidacy by four-term U.S. Representative Sharice Davids, the number of Democrats to appear on the primary ballot for the U.S. Senate this August is poised to set a party record. [Of the 10 announced candidates, four have filed declaration of intention forms with the Kansas Secretary of State and six others (plus one overlapping both) have filed statement of candidacies with the Federal Election Commission].

Across the 42 primaries held for the U.S. Senate in Kansas since 1912, the largest number of Democratic U.S. Senate primary candidates has been seven – in a contest held more than 110 years ago in 1914.

That primary was won by two-term U.S. Representative George Neely of Hutchinson with 29.0 percent of the vote – 3.6 points ahead of attorney Hugh Farrelly of Chanute with 25.4 percent.

Farrelly, a former State Senator and attorney, was also the popular vote winner in the party’s 1912 primary, but nonetheless lost the nomination to 32nd Judicial District Court Judge William Thompson as the contest was determined by legislative units at that point in history.

Also on the seven-candidate Democratic primary ballot in 1914 were Galena attorney William Sapp (receiving 16.7 percent), Topeka Judge Frank Doster (11.1 percent), State House Speaker Willis Brown of Kingston (8.7 percent), former Populist one-term U.S. Representative and sitting Lansing State Penitentiary Warden Jeremiah Botkin of Winfield (6.6 percent), and Kansas City oil company executive William Plumb (2.6 percent).

Democrats have also fielded six U.S. Senate candidates twice: in 1980 (won by former Republican State Senator John Simpson) and 2022 (won by former Kansas City Mayor Mark Holland).

An average of 2.7 candidates have appeared on Democratic primary ballots for U.S. Senator since 1912 with seven nominees running unopposed: former Governor George Hodges in 1920, former Governor Jonathan Davis in 1930, former U.S. Senator George McGill in 1944, former Ellsworth County Attorney Paul Aylward in 1962’s special, Prairie Village anesthesiologist Arch Tetzlaff in 1972, Overland Park Bankers & Investors Co. president James Maher in 1984, and State Treasurer Sally Thompson in 1996.

No Democrats ran for the office of U.S. Senator in one of these 42 primaries – during the 2002 cycle against Senator Pat Roberts.

The most competitive nomination fight took place in 1956 when Wichita furrier George Hart defeated the aforementioned Paul Aylward by 0.4 points in a four-candidate field.

Democrats have been nominated for the U.S. Senate with a plurality of the vote 10 times: in 1912 (William Thompson, 32.3 percent), 1914 (George Neeley, 29.0 percent), 1924 (State Senator James Malone of Topeka, 30.2 percent), 1956 (George Hart, 40.4 percent), 1966 (former three-term U.S. Representative J. Floyd Breeding, 49.9 percent), 1968 (Wichita attorney William Robinson, 40.9 percent), 1980 (John Simpson, 35.8 percent), 1986 (unemployed Wichita political newcomer Guy McDonald, 27.7 percent), 2010 (Baker University Dean Lisa Johnston, 31.3 percent), and 2022 (Mark Holland, 38.1 percent).

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