Smart Politics

What Goes Up, Goes Down Slowly: A Long Road to Recovering Job Losses in Minnesota

2009-07-14T05:15:19Z

With new unemployment numbers set to be released on Thursday, Minnesotans are bracing for news as to whether the state will continue to follow the leveling-off pattern of job losses from the last 3 months, or whether unemployment will rise closer in line to the nation overall (currently at 9.5 percent).

In January and February of this year, the Gopher State was tracking the national jobless rate very closely - just 0.1 percentage point below the U.S. level at 7.5 and 8.0 percent respectively during those two months.

At that point, while the national jobless rate continued to rise - 8.5 percent in March, 8.9 percent in April, 9.4 percent in May, and 9.5 percent in June - Minnesota's rate has been fairly flat: 8.2 percent in March, 8.0 percent in April, and 8.2 percent in May.

However, even if the Minnesota economy has bottomed out of its current crisis and is starting to rebound, history suggests it will take years, perhaps even a decade to fully recover from all the jobs lost during the recent recession.

Although the unemployment rate did not really begin to make headlines in the Gopher State until after the November election (rising a half a percent in both November and December), the current upward arc in state job losses began all the way back in June 2006. At that time, the seasonally adjusted unemployment trate was just 3.8 percent. However, over the course of the next 35 months, the rate increased in 21 months, held steady in 9 months, and decreased in just 5 months.

As a result, by June 2007 the jobless rate was up to 4.5 percent. By June 2008 it reached 5.3 percent. And, by May 2009 it reached 8.2 percent.

While this rate of increase in unemployment has been unprecedented, there is no guarantee that the rate of decrease in job losses will be quite so swift. In fact, recent history suggests the recovery will take a much longer time to play out.

The last time Minnesota's unemployment rate was at its current level of a shade above 8 percent was May 1983 (8.3 percent). At that time, the Gopher State was already in the midst of a recovery from the recession in Ronald Reagan's first term where peak jobless levels in Minnesota reached 9.0 percent in November 1982.

The escalation of Minnesota's unemployment rate had only taken a bit longer to reach the 8+ percent mark during that economic crisis - rising from 3.8 percent in March 1979 to 8.0 percent in June 1982: a period of just 3 years and 3 months (it took 2 years and 8 months during the current recession to escalate that quickly).

However, after declining back down to 8.3 percent in May 1983, Minnesota did not return to the pre-recession unemployment rate of 3.8 percent until November 1994 - some 11 years and 6 months later.

At that rate (assuming Minnesota has reached its peak jobless levels now), Minnesota will not see the return to its 3.8 percent pre-recession unemployment level until November of 2020.

Continue to visit Smart Politics for more in-depth historical analysis of the economic recessions facing Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas.

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What Will Be the 'Obama Effect' on the 2010 Minnesota Gubernatorial Race?

2009-07-13T04:07:55Z

The recent news of Barack Obama's sliding approval ratings across key battleground states (e.g. Ohio, Virginia) as well as the nation (e.g. Gallup, Rasmussen) has raised the question as to what effect a potentially less popular (if not unpopular) President Obama will have on key statewide and Congressional contests during the 2010 election cycle.

While Minnesota is considered a Democratic-trending battleground state, the DFL has not won the Governor's office in nearly a quarter-century.

Additionally, a new Smart Politics historical analysis of the impact of the sitting president's political party on Minnesota gubernatorial races suggests having a Democrat in the White House might spell bad news for the DFL in 2010.

A Smart Politics analysis of Minnesota's 28 gubernatorial elections since 1930 finds a DFLer or a Democrat has been elected to the Governor's mansion with a Democratic president in D.C. on only 1 occasion.

Overall, since 1930, Minnesota has elected 15 Republicans, 8 DFLers, 4 Farmer-Laborites, and 1 Reform Party candidate as Governor of the Gopher State. But only once, in 1962, has a DFLer won a gubernatorial race (Karl Rolvaag) with a Democrat in the White House (John F. Kennedy).

Until quite recently Minnesota Republicans also struggled in gubernatorial contests when a member of their party controlled the White House. Republican presidents have been in office 13 times since 1930 with gubernatorial contests on Minnesota's Election Day ballot. Republicans have won the governorship just 4 times, although three of these have occurred since 1990: Elmer Anderson in 1960 (Eisenhower), Arne Carlson in 1990 (Bush 41), and Tim Pawlenty in 2002 and 2006 (Bush 43).

In total, the President's political party has carried the day in Minnesota gubernatorial elections in just 5 of 28 races since 1930, or 18 percent of the time. Even more startling, the president's party has lost by an average margin of 21.2 points during these 23 races.

As for Obama, his approval rating in Minnesota was at a yearly low of 59 percent in a mid-June SurveyUSA poll, until a recently released survey by Public Policy Polling found that rating slip to 54 percent in early July.

To what extent does the popularity or unpopularity of the President come into play in this historical trend? The data suggests there is some influence on Minnesota gubernatorial elections.

For example, Gallup public opinion data since 1942 shows that the average presidential approval rating closest to Election Day to be 49.6 percent for those 18 years in which the President's party did not win the governor's race in Minnesota.

During the 5 elections outlined above in which the President's party did win the gubernatorial contest in the Gopher State, the average approval rating was higher, at 55.8 percent. (That total includes George W. Bush's 38 percent approval rating endured by Governor Pawlenty during his remarkable 2006 victory that brought him into the national spotlight).

Still, high approval ratings do not provide fool-proof coattails: the top 4 presidential approval ratings heading into November elections all failed to carry the Gopher State governor's race for the president's party: FDR in 1942 (70 percent) and 1944 (70 percent), Eisenhower in 1956 (67 percent), and Clinton in 1998 (66 percent).

Minnesota Gubernatorial Party Victor vis-à-vis Partisan Control of the White House, 1930-2006

Year	President	Party	Pres. Approval	Gov. Winner	Pres. Party MoV
2006	Bush	GOP	38	GOP	1.0
2002	Bush	GOP	63	GOP	7.9
1998	Clinton	Democrat	66	Reform	-8.9
1994	Clinton	Democrat	46	GOP	-29.2
1990	Bush	GOP	58	GOP	3.3
1986	Reagan	GOP	63	DFL	-13.0
1982	Reagan	GOP	43	DFL	-18.9
1978	Carter	Democrat	49	GOP	-7.0
1974	Ford	GOP	54	DFL	-33.4
1970	Nixon	GOP	58	DFL	-8.5
1966	LBJ	Democrat	44	GOP	-5.7
1962	JFK	Democrat	62	DFL	0.0
1960	Eisenhower	GOP	58	GOP	1.5
1958	Eisenhower	GOP	57	DFL	-14.5
1956	Eisenhower	GOP	67	DFL	-3.2
1954	Eisenhower	GOP	61	DFL	-5.9
1952	Truman	Democrat	32	GOP	-11.3
1950	Truman	Democrat	41	GOP	-22.4
1948	Truman	Democrat	39	GOP	-8.0
1946	Truman	Democrat	33	GOP	-19.3
1944	FDR	Democrat	70	GOP	-23.8
1942	FDR	Democrat	70	GOP	-42.1
1940	FDR	Democrat	N/A	GOP	-41.0
1938	FDR	Democrat	N/A	GOP	-54.1
1936*	FDR	Democrat	N/A	F-L	-60.7
1934	FDR	Democrat	N/A	F-L	-27.8
1932	Hoover	GOP	N/A	F-L	-34.2
1930	Hoover	GOP	N/A	F-L	-23.0

* The Democrats did not field a candidate in the 1936 gubernatorial election. Approval rating data based on the latest Gallup (for 1944, OPOR) polling data available before the gubernatorial election day. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Bachmann Voting Record Is 2nd Least Supportive of Obama in U.S. House

2009-07-09T17:04:05Z

Last month a Smart Politics analysis of the most conservative members of the U.S. House (as determined by National Journal's annual rankings) found Representative Michele Bachmann to have received the smallest margin of victory of the 44 most conservative Republicans who won reelection in 2008. That blog explained how none of these nearly four-dozen conservative House Republicans represents a more vulnerable seat than Bachmann's, few represent a more moderate congressional district, and thus few put as much political capital at risk when carving out such a conservative stance as the Congresswoman.

In short, Bachmann's policy positions are, politically, quite bold for her district.

New House voting data, provided this time by Congressional Quarterly, bolsters the notion that Michele Bachmann indeed has the boldest voting record on the Republican side of the aisle.

Bachmann's voting record through the first half of 2009 is tied for the second least supportive of President Barack Obama's stated policy and legislative preferences. At just 10 percent agreement, Bachmann's adversarial voting record with the President is only eclipsed by Representative Jeff Flake (AZ-06) among the 178-member Republican caucus.

Bachmann even voted against the President's stated preferences more than House Minority Leader John Boehner (OH-08). Boehner voted with the President 15 percent of the time.

Bachmann, of course, has been a very outspoken critic of Obama and many of his policies, particularly on federal stimulus spending and cap-and-trade energy legislation. The Congresswoman appeared on Fox TV's Hannity Wednesday night to criticize Barack Obama's fiscal policy and Democratic plans to spend TARP money as opposed to return it to the taxpayers.

What makes Bachmann unique among her colleagues in her staunch opposition to the President, however, is the different partisan makeup between her 6th Congressional District and those other House Republicans who have voted against the president by a similarly large percentage.

For example, John McCain carried Bachmann's district by just 9 points in the 2008 election. Meanwhile, Georgia Congressman Nathan Deal (GA-09) and South Carolina Representative J. Gresham Barrett (SC-03), who, like Bachmann also only supported the president's policy in 10 percent of their votes cast in the House, represent districts carried by McCain by 52 and 29 points respectively. Representative Flake's district voted for McCain by 23 points.

And of the 40 House Republicans who voted with Obama 20 percent of the time or less so far this year, only 6 represent districts in which McCain did not win by double digits. Two of these are from Minnesota: Bachmann (9 points) and John Kline (MN-02, 2 points). (The others are Mike Pence (IN-09), Pete Sessions (TX-32), Ed Royce (CA-40), and Bob Latta (OH-05)).

Top House Republicans Voting Against Barack Obama's Policies, January-June 2009

Rank	Seat	Representative	Pres Support	McCain MoV
1	AZ-06	Jeff Flake	5	23
2	MN-06	Michele Bachmann	10	9
2	GA-09	Nathan Deal	10	52
2	SC-03	J. Gresham Barrett	10	29
5	AZ-02	Trent Franks	12	23
5	AZ-03	John Shadegg	12	14
5	IN-06	Mike Pence	12	6
5	TN-07	Marhsa Blackburn	12	31
5	TX-05	Jeb Hersarling	12	27
5	TX-19	Randy Neugebauer	12	45
11	TX-32	Pete Sessions	13	7
11	UT-01	Rob Bishop	13	31
13	CA-40	Ed Royce	15	5
13	CO-05	Doug Lamborn	15	19
13	FL-01	Jeff Miller	15	35
13	GA-07	John Linder	15	21
13	NC-05	Virginia Foxx	15	23
13	NC-10	Patrick McHenry	15	27
13	NJ-05	Scott Garrett	15	11
13	OH-08	John Boehner	15	23
13	TX-03	Sam Johnson	15	15
13	TX-11	K. Michael Conaway	15	51
13	TX-13	William Thornberry	15	53
13	TX-14	Ron Paul	15	33
13	UT-03	Jason Chaffetz	15	38
26	FL-14	Connie Mack	16	15
26	GA-06	Tom Price	16	28
26	GA-10	Paul Broun	16	25
26	TX-22	Pete Olson	16	17
26	TX-26	Michael Burgess	16	17
31	GA-03	Lynn Westmoreland	17	29
32	CA-04	Tom McClintock	19	10
32	IA-05	Steve King	19	11
32	NE-03	Adrian Smith	19	39
32	OH-04	Jim Jordan	19	22
32	OH-05	Bob Latta	19	8
32	TX-08	Kevin Brady	19	48
32	WI-05	Jim Sensenbrenner	19	17
39	MN-02	John Kline	20	2
39	WY-AL	Cynthia Lummis	20	32

Note: Congressional Quarterly data compiled by Smart Politics.

Bachmann ended her segment on Hannity Wednesday by stating the American public has "buyer's remorse" from electing Obama and the Democrats who have controlled Congress since 2007.

Bachmann also predicted Republicans have a "very good chance to win the majority in the House" in 2010.

Hannity affectionately referred to Bachmann on his program as the "second most hated Republican woman after Sarah Palin." Representative Bachmann called that "high praise."

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Sen. Rest and Rep. Emmer to Speak on U.S. Senate Recount and MN Election Reform

2009-07-09T17:01:54Z

Two leaders from the State Capitol will be speaking at a forum hosted by the Humphrey Institute on Friday morning to pinpoint reforms that could be made in the Minnesota election system to avoid recount pitfalls in the future.

DFL Senator Ann Rest (Chair of the Senate State and Local Government Operations and Oversight Committee) and GOP Representative Tom Emmer (Ranking Minority Member, State and Local Government Operations Reform, Technology and Elections Committee), will discuss the 2008 U.S. Senate recount as a guide for instituting new reforms to improve Minnesota elections.

The event is open to the public and will be moderated by Lawrence Jacobs, Director of the Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance.

Learning from the 2008 U.S. Senate Recount Saga: Practical Reforms to Improve Minnesota Elections

Friday, July 10th
10 - 11:15am
Cowles Auditorium, Humphrey Institute
301 19th Ave S., Minneapolis

How Blue Are the Blue Dog Democrats?

2009-07-08T05:04:59Z

Congressional Quarterly's vote study for the first half of 2009 is in the books, and finds that House Democrats overall supported Barack Obama 91.1 percent of the time in which the President stated his clear policy preference on legislation that received a floor vote.

But what about the Blue Dog Democrats? How frequently did they part ways from the President?

More than a quarter of the Democratic Upper Midwestern delegation (4 of 15) belongs to the Blue Dog coalition: Collin Peterson (MN-07), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03).

The 52-member coalition touts itself as fiscally conservative and representing the center of the House. Blue Dogs also claim to represent the mainstream values of the American public and are "dedicated to a core set of beliefs that transcend partisan politics."

Blue Dogs did indeed show less support for their President's policy preferences than House Democrats as a whole, but not by a substantial amount: Blue Dogs still voted in accord with President Obama 85.7 percent of the time (just 5.4 percentage points less than House Democrats overall).

Thirty-five Blue Dogs supported the president less than the Democratic caucus as a whole. Overall, of the 14 Democrats who supported the president less than 70 percent of the time, 12 were Blue Dogs.

Fifteen Blue Dogs, however, voted with the president more than the Democratic caucus overall.

South Dakota's Herseth Sandlin sided with the President only 73 percent of the time - tied for 4th lowest among all House Democrats. There is speculation Herseth will make a run for Governor of South Dakota in 2010 (GOPer Tim Rounds is term limited). Honing her conservative Democratic credentials is an important first step for Representative Herseth Sandlin, as only 4 Democrats have ever been elected governor of the Mount Rushmore State (one being her grandfather, Ralph Herseth, in 1958).

Meanwhile, Minnesota's lone Blue Dog Representative, Collin Peterson, voted with the President's stated position 81 percent of the time - tied for the 16th lowest percentage among House Democrats.

Pomeroy and Boswell actually voted with Obama with a greater frequency than the Democratic average - at 92 and 96 percent respectively.

Congressional Quarterly, in this study of 475 roll call votes in the House, also tracked "party unity" votes - votes in those instances in which legislation pits "most Democrats against most Republicans."

Overall, Democrats displayed party unity in 94.6 percent of such roll call votes. Blue Dogs, who, as mentioned above, vow to transcend partisan politics, still voted with their party 85.4 percent of the time. Blue Dogs, however, constituted 14 of the 15 Democrats who voted with their party less than 80 percent of the time during the first half of 2009.

Upper Midwestern U.S. House Delegation Votes by Presidential Support and Party Unity, January-June 2009

Representative	Seat	Pres Support	Party Unity	Blue Dog
Bruce Braley	IA-01	96	99
Dave Loebsack	IA-02	96	94
Leonard Boswell	IA-03	96	98	Yes
Tim Walz	MN-01	92	92
Betty McCollum	MN-04	92	99
Keith Ellison	MN-05	91	99
Collin Peterson	MN-07	81	88	Yes
James Oberstar	MN-08	92	98
Earl Pomeroy	ND-AL	92	96	Yes
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	SD-AL	73	89	Yes
Tammy Baldwin	WI-02	92	99
Ron Kind	WI-03	92	90
Gwen Moore	WI-04	100	99
David Obey	WI-07	96	99
Steve Kagen	WI-08	88	99

Source: Congressional Quarterly 2009 Vote Study data.

Overall, based on the first six months of 2009, it appears the Blue Dog Democratic coalition is just a lighter shade of blue than its party's leadership.

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Minnesota's 'Youthful' U.S. House Delegation

2009-07-07T05:02:47Z

A recent article at CQ Politics profiled the potential competitiveness of Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District race in 2010. That district's Representative, freshman GOPer Erik Paulsen, is one of several dozen new faces elected to D.C. during the past two election cycles.

Overall, 114 Representatives, or more than 25 percent of the U.S. House, are members serving in only their 1st or 2nd term. Many of these representatives hail from the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida, where Democrats have staged pick-ups in swing districts during the tsunamis of 2006 and 2008.

In Minnesota, for reasons of retirement (Jim Ramstad, Martin Olav Sabo), failed attempts at higher office (Mark Kennedy) and unsuccessful reelection bids (Gil Gutknecht), the Gopher State now has half of its districts represented in D.C. by members in the freshman or sophomore classes.

In fact, at 50 percent, no state with a population of 5 million or more has a larger percentage of 1st or 2nd year Representatives comprising their U.S. House delegation.

Percentage of Freshman and Sophomore U.S. Representatives Among the 20 Most Populous States

State	Districts	Number	Percent
Minnesota	8	4	50.0
Ohio	18	9	50.0
Indiana	9	4	44.4
Maryland	8	3	37.5
Arizona	8	3	37.5
Virginia	11	4	36.4
Florida	25	8	32.0
Pennsylvania	19	6	31.6
Illinois	19	6	31.6
New York	29	9	31.0
New Jersey	13	3	23.1
Tennessee	9	2	22.2
Georgia	12	2	16.7
North Carolina	13	2	15.4
Michigan	15	2	13.3
Wisconsin	8	1	12.5
California	52*	6	11.5
Missouri	9	1	11.1
Massachusetts	10	1	10.0
Texas	32	1	3.1
Washington	9	0	0.0

* California has 53 districts, but its 10th District is currently vacant with Rep. Ellen Tauscher resigning earlier this year.

It is, in fact, Minnesota's newer members, notably Keith Ellison and Michele Bachmann, that have generated most of the national headlines among the state's congressional delegation during the past year (for both personal and policy reasons). The two Representatives, serving the 5th and 6th districts respectively, could not be much more divergent on the ideological spectrum: National Journal rated Ellison's 2008 voting record as the 13th most liberal in the country and Bachmann's as the 31st most conservative.

The four fresh faces in the Minnesota U.S. House delegation (Paulsen, Ellison, Bachmann, and Tim Walz) serve along side two of the more experienced and powerful members of the institution, committee chairs Jim Oberstar and Collin Peterson - giving the Gopher State a potent mixture of the old and the new.

Overall, Minnesota ranks almost exactly in the middle for the average number of terms of service for its members of its U.S. House delegation. At 5.5 terms, Minnesota ranks #26 in the nation, well behind the neighboring state of Wisconsin (#6 at 8.75 terms).

Average Terms of Service by U.S. House State Delegation

Rank	State	Districts	Terms	Average
1	Alaska	1	19	19.00
2	West Virginia	3	36	12.00
3	Michigan	15	153	10.20
4	Delaware	1	9	9.00
4	North Dakota	1	9	9.00
6	Wisconsin	8	70	8.75
7	Massachusetts	10	87	8.70
8	California	52*	387	7.44
9	Washington	9	66	7.33
10	South Carolina	6	43	7.17
11	New Jersey	13	92	7.08
12	New York	29	198	6.83
13	Texas	32	215	6.72
14	Oregon	5	33	6.60
15	Tennessee	9	59	6.56
16	Virginia	11	72	6.55
17	Hawaii	2	13	6.50
17	Rhode Island	2	13	6.50
19	Indiana	9	57	6.33
20	North Carolina	13	80	6.15
21	Arkansas	4	24	6.00
22	Missouri	9	53	5.89
23	Georgia	12	69	5.75
23	Mississippi	4	23	5.75
25	Maryland	8	45	5.63
26	Kansas	4	22	5.50
26	Minnesota	8	44	5.50
28	Florida	25	137	5.48
29	Pennsylvania	19	104	5.47
30	Kentucky	6	32	5.33
31	Illinois	19	98	5.16
32	Montana	1	5	5.00
33	Iowa	5	23	4.60
33	Oklahoma	5	23	4.60
35	Arizona	8	36	4.50
36	Alabama	7	30	4.29
37	Connecticut	5	21	4.20
38	South Dakota	1	4	4.00
39	Ohio	18	69	3.83
40	Nebraska	3	11	3.67
41	Idaho	2	7	3.50
42	Utah	3	10	3.33
43	Nevada	3	9	3.00
44	Maine	2	5	2.50
45	Colorado	7	17	2.43
46	Louisiana	7	15	2.14
47	New Hampshire	2	4	2.00
47	Vermont	1	2	2.00
49	New Mexico	3	3	1.00
49	Wyoming	1	1	1.00

* California has 53 districts, but its 10th District is currently vacant with Rep. Ellen Tauscher resigning earlier this year.

As profiled yesterday at Smart Politics, Minnesota's U.S. Senate delegation has the second lowest seniority in the country.

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Minnesota Delegation Has 2nd Lowest Collective Seniority Ranking in U.S. Senate

2009-07-06T02:44:23Z

The soon-to-be seated DFL U.S. Senator Al Franken will now be able to assist Senior Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar with the state's constituency caseload, but will not enhance the state's collective seniority ranking in Capitol Hill's upper chamber.

Minnesota has the 2nd lowest level of seniority among the 50 states, with Klobuchar at #82 and Franken with the distinction of holding the lowest level of seniority - #100 out of 100 Senators. Only the Senators from the state of Colorado (Democrat's Mark Udall and Michael Bennett, who filled the seat vacated by U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar on January 21st) have a collective lower seniority ranking (averaging #92.5) than Minnesota (#91).

Had Franken been able to avoid the recount and be sworn in on January 3rd with the rest of the country's newly-minted Senators from the 2008 election, he would have been ranked #94 in seniority - ahead of Oregon's Jeff Merkely, Alaska's Mark Begich, and appointed Senators Roland Burris (Illinois), Ted Kaufman (Deleware), Bennett (Colorado), and Kristin Gillibrand (New York).

However, even if that had been the case, the Gopher State's average seniority ranking between Klobuchar and Franken of #88 still would have landed them as the second lowest in the nation.

By contrast, the delegations from the Upper Midwestern states of Iowa (#3), North Dakota (#7), and Wisconsin (#8) all rank among the Top 10 states for collective seniority.

U.S. Senate Seniority Rankings, by State Delegation

Rank	State	Senior Senator	Junior Senator	Average
1	Massachusetts	2	14	8.0
2	West Virginia	1	17	9.0
3	Iowa	11	15	13.0
4	Hawaii	3	26	14.5
5	Connecticut	10	25	17.5
6	Utah	6	33	19.5
7	North Dakota	23	28	25.5
8	Wisconsin	24	31	27.5
9	California	27	29	28.0
10	Arizona	20	37	28.5
11	Indiana	5	53	29.0
12	Alabama	19	45	32.0
13	Michigan	9	56	32.5
13	Kentucky	16	49	32.5
15	Nevada	21	57	39.0
16	Kansas	39	40	39.5
17	Vermont	4	76	40.0
18	Maine	36	46	41.0
19	Pennsylvania	12	78	45.0
19	Washington	32	58	45.0
21	Montana	7	84	45.5
22	Maryland	18	75	46.5
23	Mississippi	8	86	47.0
24	Texas	34	65	49.5
25	New Mexico	13	88	50.5
26	Missouri	22	81	51.5
27	Oklahoma	35	69	52.0
28	South Dakota	42	70	56.0
29	Louisiana	44	72	58.0
30	Arkansas	51	66	58.5
31	New Hampshire	30	90	60.0
32	Rhode Island	43	83	63.0
33	Florida	54	73	63.5
34	Ohio	52	77	64.5
35	South Carolina	63	68	65.5
36	Oregon	38	94	66.0
36	Wyoming	47	85	66.0
38	Georgia	62	71	66.5
39	New Jersey	61	74	67.5
40	Illinois	41	96	68.5
41	Idaho	50	92	71.0
42	Tennessee	64	80	72.0
43	New York	48	99	73.5
44	Nebraska	59	89	74.0
45	Delaware	55	97	76.0
46	Alaska	60	95	77.5
47	North Carolina	67	93	80.0
48	Virginia	79	91	85.0
49	Minnesota	82	100	91.0
50	Colorado	87	98	92.5

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

The collective 2.5 years of service logged in by Minnesota's Senate delegation is also the 2nd lowest in the nation. By contrast, West Virginia's two Senators (Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller) have 75.0 collective years of service, followed by Massachusetts' Ted Kennedy and John Kerry (71.2 years), and Hawaii's Daniel Inouye and Daniel Akaka (65.6 years).

In the Upper Midwest, Iowa's delegation of Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin come in at #4 with 53.0 years of service, with North Dakota's delegation of Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan at #8 (39.1 years) and Wisconsin's Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold at #10 (37.0 years).

Years of Service by U.S. Senate State Delegation

Rank	State	Senior Senator	Junior Senator	Total
1	West Virginia	50.5	24.5	75.0
2	Massachusetts	46.7	24.5	71.2
3	Hawaii	46.5	19.1	65.6
4	Iowa	28.5	24.5	53.0
5	Utah	32.5	16.5	49.0
5	Connecticut	28.5	20.5	49.0
7	Indiana	32.5	10.5	43.0
8	North Dakota	22.5	16.6	39.1
9	Michigan	30.5	8.5	39.0
10	Vermont	34.5	2.5	37.0
10	Arizona	22.5	14.5	37.0
10	Wisconsin	20.5	16.5	37.0
13	Kentucky	24.5	10.5	35.0
13	Alabama	22.5	12.5	35.0
15	California	16.7	16.5	33.2
16	Montana	30.6	2.5	33.1
17	Mississippi	30.6	1.6	32.2
18	Nevada	22.5	8.5	31.0
18	Pennsylvania	28.5	2.5	31.0
20	New Jersey	24.5	3.5	28.0
21	New Mexico	26.5	0.5	27.0
21	Maine	14.5	12.5	27.0
23	Kansas	12.7	12.5	25.2
24	Maryland	22.5	2.5	25.0
24	Missouri	22.5	2.5	25.0
24	Washington	16.5	8.5	25.0
27	Texas	16.0	6.5	22.5
28	Oklahoma	14.7	4.5	19.2
29	New Hampshire	16.5	0.5	17.0
29	South Dakota	12.5	4.5	17.0
29	Louisiana	12.5	4.5	17.0
29	Arkansas	10.5	6.5	17.0
33	Rhode Island	12.5	2.5	15.0
34	Wyoming	12.5	2.0	14.5
35	Oregon	13.3	0.5	13.8
36	Illinois	12.5	0.5	13.0
36	Ohio	10.5	2.5	13.0
36	Florida	8.5	4.5	13.0
39	Idaho	10.5	0.5	11.0
39	New York	10.5	0.5	11.0
39	Georgia	6.5	4.5	11.0
39	South Carolina	6.5	4.5	11.0
43	Delaware	8.5	0.5	9.0
43	Nebraska	8.5	0.5	9.0
43	Tennessee	6.5	2.5	9.0
46	Alaska	6.6	0.5	7.1
47	North Carolina	4.5	0.5	5.0
48	Virginia	2.5	0.5	3.0
49	Minnesota	2.5	0.0	2.5
50	Colorado	0.5	0.5	1.0

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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It's the Snowball Fights: Minnesota Has Lowest Rate of Overweight Children in America

2009-07-02T05:01:46Z

While Minnesota recently lost its #1 ranking to Wisconsin for the state with the best quality of health care nationwide, a new study released Tuesday by the Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation reveals the Gopher State to have the lowest percentage of overweight and obese children in the country.

The study found the average statewide rate of obese and overweight children to be at 31.0 percent nationwide; Minnesota, at 23.1 percent, was the healthiest state (along with Utah) with just shy of one-quarter of its children ages 10 through 17 determined to be obsese or overweight.

The study defined children as obese if their body mass index was at or above the 95th percentile for their age; a child with a body mass index above the 85th percentile was considered overweight.

The new study generally supports a recent analysis conducted by the Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative. That organization's 2007 National Survey of Children's Health found Minnesota to have tied for the 3rd lowest child obesity rate in the country at 11 percent (that study did not report data on overweight children).

Whether it is diet, exercise, or general hearty living while enduring the state's cold winters, Minnesota has achieved this top ranking in the nation despite lacking many statewide initiatives that have been implemented across the country to combat childhood obesity.

For example, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, Minnesota is not among the 31 states nationwide that have implemented a systematic policy approach to address childhood obesity (e.g. in its physical education or school lunch programs). Kaiser also finds that Minnesota is not among the 15 states that have formed a task force or committee to confront childhood obesity. Nor does the Gopher State mandate body mass index screening or require menu labeling in restaurants as has been legislated in a handful of states.

Overall, Upper Midwestern states were ranked among the best in the nation for the lowest rate of overweight and obese children. Minnesota led the way at #50, followed by North Dakota at #45 (25.7 percent), Iowa at #44 (26.5 percent), Wisconsin at #40 (27.9 percent), and South Dakota at #38 (28.4 percent).

Southern states, particularly in the Deep South, had by far the highest rate of overweight and obese children: Mississippi (44.4 percent), Arkansas (37.5 percent), Georgia (37.3 percent), Kentucky (37.1 percent), Tennessee (36.5 percent), Alabama (36.1 percent), and Louisiana (35.9 percent) had the worst ratings.

Rate of Overweight and Obese Children by State

Rank	State	Percent
1	Mississippi	44.4
2	Arkansas	37.5
3	Georgia	37.3
4	Kentucky	37.1
5	Tennessee	36.5
6	Alabama	36.1
7	Louisiana	35.9
8	West Virginia	35.5
9	District of Columbia	35.4
10	Illinois	34.9
11	Nevada	34.2
12	Alaska	33.9
13	South Carolina	33.7
14	North Carolina	33.5
15	Ohio	33.3
16	Delaware	33.2
17	Florida	33.1
18	New York	32.9
19	New Mexico	32.7
20	Texas	32.2
21	Nebraska	31.5
22	Kansas	31.1
23	Missouri	31.0
23	New Jersey	31.0
23	Virginia	31.0
26	Arizona	30.6
26	Michigan	30.6
28	California	30.5
29	Rhode Island	30.1
30	Massachusetts	30.0
31	Indiana	29.9
32	Pennsylvania	29.7
33	Oklahoma	29.5
33	Washington	29.5
35	New Hampshire	29.4
36	Maryland	28.8
37	Hawaii	28.5
38	South Dakota	28.4
39	Maine	28.2
40	Wisconsin	27.9
41	Idaho	27.5
42	Colorado	27.2
43	Vermont	26.7
44	Iowa	26.5
45	Connecticut	25.7
45	North Dakota	25.7
45	Wyoming	25.7
48	Montana	25.6
49	Oregon	24.3
50	Utah	23.1
50	Minnesota	23.1

Source: Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Rankings are based on the National Survey of Children's Health, a phone survey of parents with children ages 10-17 conducted in 2007 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Despite Minnesota's best-in-the-nation rating for children, the news was good, but not great, regarding the state's ranking for the obesity rate of adults.

Minnesota ranked 31st in the nation for the highest adult obesity rate, as calculated by a body mass index of 30 or higher. Just over a quarter of Minnesota adults were found to be obese (25.3 percent).

That was good enough for best in the Upper Midwest, however, ahead of Wisconsin (#26, 26.0 percent), Iowa and North Dakota (tied for #22, 26.7 percent), and South Dakota (#20, 26.9 percent).

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Putting a Bow on the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate Contest (A Historical Analysis)

2009-07-01T05:21:11Z

With Governor Tim Pawlenty and Secretary of State Mark Ritchie signing the election certificate for the U.S. Senate seat on Tuesday evening, the 2008 Election is, after a 238-day wait, at last in the books.

The 2008 U.S. Senate Election is noteworthy, of course, for its historic narrow margin of victory and for setting a Gopher State record for the longest period with only one U.S. Senator.

But there are other interesting statistical findings from the election-that-would-never-end.

First, the 42.0 percent of the vote won by Al Franken marks the second lowest percentage tallied by a winner in a Minnesota U.S. Senate race out of the 37 general and special elections held since popular vote elections were introduced in the Gopher State in 1912.

Only Republican Thomas D. Schall, with 37.6 percent of the vote won during his successful 1930 reelection campaign, has headed to the nation's capitol with a lower percentage of the statewide vote.

Since the DFL merger in 1944, the previous low-water mark for a winning candidate was the 48.8 percent won by Mark Dayton in 2000 in his defeat of 1-term GOP incumbent Rod Grams.

Overall, 11 of Minnesota's 37 Senate races have been won by just a plurality of the vote, although only 4 since the DFL merger: 1916 (Frank B. Kellogg), 1922 (Henrik Shipstead), 1924 (Thomas D. Schall), 1930 (Schall), 1934 (Shipstead), 1936 (Guy V. Howard, in a special election), 1942 (Jospeh H. Ball), 1994 (Rod Grams), 2000 (Mark Dayton), 2002 (Coleman), and 2008 (Franken).

Largest Percentage of the Vote Received by Victorious Minnesota U.S. Senate Candidates, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1976	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	67.5
2	1928	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	65.4
3	1912	Knute Nelson	Republican	62.8
4	1936	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	62.2
5	1978*	Dave Durenberger	Republican	61.5
6	1964	Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	60.3
7	1918	Knute Nelson	Republican	60.0
8	1948	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	59.8
9	1946	Edward J. Thye	Republican	58.9
10	2006	Amy Klobuchar	DFL	58.1
10	1984	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	58.1
12	1970	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	57.8
13	1960	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	57.5
13	1923*	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	57.5
15	1972	Walter F. Mondale	DFL	56.7
16	1978	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	56.6
16	1952	Edward J. Thye	Republican	56.6
18	1954	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	56.4
19	1988	Dave Durenberger	Republican	56.2
20	1942*	Arthur E. Nelson	Republican	56.1
21	1966	Walter F. Mondale	DFL	53.9
22	1940	Henrik Shipstead	Republican	53.0
23	1958	Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	52.9
24	1982	Dave Durgenberger	Republican	52.6
25	1990	Paul Wellstone	DFL	50.4
26	1996	Paul Wellstone	DFL	50.3
27	1934	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	49.9
28	2002	Norm Coleman	Republican	49.5
29	1994	Rod Grams	Republican	49.1
30	2000	Mark Dayton	DFL	48.8
31	1916	Frank B. Kellogg	Republican	48.6
32	1922	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	47.1
33	1942	Joseph H. Ball	Republican	47.0
34	1924	Thomas D. Schall	Republican	46.5
35	1936*	Guy V. Howard	Republican	42.9
36	2008	Al Franken	DFL	42.0
37	1930	Thomas D. Schall	Republican	37.6

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

However, despite Franken's historically low vote percentage, there have been a dozen U.S. Senate candidates in Minnesota who have won a larger percentage of the vote than Norm Coleman, and still lost their respective contest.

Coleman's 42.0 percent of the vote ranks as the 13th highest second place finish in Gopher State history, out of 37 elections conducted since 1912.

Republican Rudy Boschwitz, in his failed 1990 reelection campaign against Paul Wellstone, has the distinction of winning the largest percentage of the vote for a second place candidate (47.8 percent).

In fact, several other second place finishers during the past few decades have earned a larger percentage of the vote than Coleman, such as Walter Mondale in 2002 (47.3 percent), Mark Dayton in 1982 (46.6 percent), Ann Wynia in 1994 (44.1 percent), and Rod Grams in 2000 (43.3 percent).

In other words, while the closeness of the 2008 election made the loss more difficult to swallow for Coleman supporters, there were, proportionally, more disappointed voters in several other Senate contests in Minnesota history.

Largest Percentage of the Vote Received by 2nd Place Candidates in Minnesota U.S. Senate Elections, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1990	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	47.8
2	2002	Walter Mondale	DFL	47.3
3	1982	Mark Dayton	DFL	46.6
3	1958	Edward J. Thye	Republican	46.6
5	1924	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	45.5
6	1966	Robert A. Forsythe	Republican	45.2
7	1994	Ann Wynia	DFL	44.1
8	2000	Rod Grams	Republican	43.3
9	1972	Phil Hansen	Republican	42.9
10	1952	William E. Carlson	DFL	42.5
11	1960	P. Kenneth Peterson	Republican	42.2
12	1954	Val Bjornson	Republican	42.1
13	2008	Norm Coleman	Republican	42.0
14	1970	Clark MacGregor	Republican	41.6
15	1996	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	41.3
15	1984	Joan Anderson Growe	DFL	41.3
17	1988	Hubert H. Humphrey II	DFL	40.9
18	1978	Wendell Anderson	DFL	40.4
19	1918	Willis G. Calderwood	National	40.0
20	1948	Joseph H. Ball	Republican	39.8
20	1946	Theodore Jorgensen	DFL	39.8
22	1964	Wheelock Whitney	Republican	39.3
23	1923*	Jacob Aall Ottesen Preus	Republican	38.7
24	2006	Mark Kennedy	Republican	37.9
25	1936	Theodore Christianson	Republican	37.8
26	1912	Daniel William Lawler	Democrat	37.2
27	1930	Einar Hoidale	Democrat	36.1
28	1922	Frank B. Kellogg	Republican	35.0
29	1978*	Bob Short	DFL	34.6
30	1928	Arthur E. Nelson	Republican	33.7
31	1916	Daniel W. Lawler	Democrat	30.8
32	1934	Einar Hoidale	Democrat	29.2
33	1936*	N.J. Holmberg	Independent	28.4
34	1942	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	28.2
35	1942*	Al Hansen	Farmer-Labor	26.7
36	1940	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	25.7
37	1976	Jerry Brekke	Republican	25.0

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Of course, the performance of Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley had a major impact on the 2008 Senate election.

Barkley's 15.2 percent is the largest percentage a third-party candidate has received in a Gopher State Senatorial contest since the DFL merger in 1944. In fact, it more than doubles the previous post-merger record (Barkley's 7.0 percent on the Reform ticket in 1996).

Overall, however, Barkley's performance is just the 15th best from a third-party candidate in Minnesota Senate elections. In addition to 10 Farmer-Laborite candidacies, Barkley's 2008 mark was bested by Willis G. Calderwood twice (40.0 percent in 1918 on the National ticket, and 20.6 percent in 1916 on the Prohibition ticket), Independent candidate N.J. Holmberg in 1936 (28.4 percent), and Independent Progressive candidate Andrew O. Devold in 1936 (20.0 percent).

In total, 31 third-party candidates have earned at least 1 percent of the vote in Minnesota U.S. Senate elections since 1912.

Largest Third-Party Vote Percentage in Minnesota U.S. Senate Elections, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1928	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	65.4
2	1936	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	62.2
3	1923*	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	57.5
4	1934	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	49.9
5	1922	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	47.1
6	1924	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	45.5
7	1918	Willis G. Calderwood	National	40.0
8	1936*	N. J. Holmberg	Independent	28.4
9	1942	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	28.2
10	1942*	Al Hansen	Farmer-Labor	26.7
11	1940	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	25.7
12	1930	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	22.9
13	1916	Willis G. Calderwood	Prohibition	20.6
14	1936*	Andrew O. Devold	Independent Progressive	20.0
15	2008	Dean Barkley	Independence	15.2
16	1942	Martin A. Nelson	Independent	14.4
17	1936*	John G. Alexander	Independent	8.7
18	1996	Dean Barkley	Reform	7.0
19	1976	Paul Helm	American	6.6
20	2000	James Gibson	Independence	5.8
21	1994	Dean Barkley	Independence	5.4
22	2006	Robert Fitzgerald	Independence	3.2
23	1978*	Paul Helm	American	2.9
24	1930	Charles A. Lund	Independent	2.6
25	1988	Polly Mann	Progressive Issues	2.1
26	2002	Jim Moore	Independence	2.0
27	1990	Russell B. Bentley	Grassroots	1.7
28	1978	Sal Carlone	American	1.5
29	1946	Grace Carlson	Revolutionary Workers Party	1.3
30	1954	Francis Patrick Ryan	Liberal Independent	1.1
31	1924	Merle Birmingham	Beer-Wine Independent	1.0

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Norm Coleman Ends 2008 Election Legal Fight

2009-06-30T20:05:27Z

Speaking outside his house in St. Paul on Tuesday afternoon, former Republican Senator Norm Coleman congratulated DFLer Al Franken as the new Senator from the Gopher State. Earlier this afternoon the Minnesota Supreme Court decided Franken was "entitled" to a certificate as the winner of the November election.

Coleman also cited his appreciation for the work of DFL Senator Amy Klobuchar for working double-duty as Minnesota's lone senator throughout 2009, calling the now senior Senator from the Gopher State as an "extraordinary public servant."

Klobuchar remains extremely popular in Minnesota, with an approval rating of 62 percent in a mid-June SurveyUSA poll. Coleman added, "The good news for Al Franken is that he has Amy Klobuchar by his side."

Coleman would not acknowledge that Franken received more legally-cast ballots in the race, stating simply that the Minnesota Supreme Court has ruled on that issue.

Coleman stated he would not address his future plans, leaving that "to another day." The former Senator later added that he expects to make some announcement on his future plans shortly after July 4th.

Who Defected on the US House Climate Change Legislation?

2009-06-30T03:08:27Z

The U.S. House of Representative's 219-212 vote last week in favor of the American Clean Energy and Security Act (HR 2454) passed in part due to the defection of a handful of Republicans, while more than half of the Blue Dog Democratic coalition voted in opposition to the bill.

Eight Republicans in total voted for the climate change legislation - seven of which hail from districts carried by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race, by an average of 11.7 points.

GOP Defectors in Support of Climate Change Bill HR 2454

District	Representative	CD MoV	Pres. MoV
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	14.8	5 (Obama)
DE-AL	Michael Castle	23.1	25 (Obama)
IL-10	Mark Kirk	9.0	23 (Obama)
NJ-02	Frank LoBiondo	20.2	9 (Obama)
NJ-04	Chris Smith	33.9	5 (McCain)
NJ-07	Leonard Lance	9.2	1 (Obama)
NY-23	John McHugh	30.6	5 (Obama)
WA-08	David Reichert	5.6	14 (Obama)

Forty-four Democrats voted against the measure (along with 168 Republicans), including 29 Blue Dog Democrats. Among those Blue Dogs voting 'no' were At-large Representatives Stephanie Herseth Sandlin from South Dakota and Earl Pomeroy from North Dakota.

While a majority of the Blue Dogs voted against the legislation, 23 representatives in the 52-member coalition supported it, including Minnesota's Collin Peterson (MN-07) and Iowa's Leonard Boswell (IA-03). The entire Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin congressional delegations voted along party lines.

Nearly twice as many Democrats who voted against the climate change bill represent districts carried by John McCain in 2008 presidential election (29) than those who represent districts carried by Obama (15). McCain carried these 29 districts by an average of 15.3 points.

Seven of the Democratic defectors won pick-up seats in the 2008 Election, and five of these are also Blue Dogs - Bobby Bright (AL-02), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Walt Minnick (ID-01), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), and Glenn Nye (VA-02).

Some Democratic opposition to the climate change legislation did come from the more liberal wing of the Party in the House, such as Peter Visclosky (IN-01) and Dennis Kucinich (OH-10). Kucinich argued that the bill did not go far enough - setting weak targets, giving record subsidies to the coal industry, and building an overarching framework for failure.

Democratic Defectors in Opposition to Climate Change Bill HR 2454

District	Representative	Blue Dog	CD MoV	Pres. MoV
AL-02	Bobby Bright	Yes	0.6	26 (McCain)
AL-05	Parker Griffith	Yes	3.0	23 (McCain)
AL-07	Artur Davis		100.0	42 (Obama)
AR-01	Marion Berry	Yes	100.0	21 (McCain)
AR-04	Mike Ross	Yes	72.6	19 (McCain)
AZ-01	Ann Kirkpatrick		16.2	10 (McCain)
AZ-05	Harry Mitchell	Yes	9.6	5 (McCain)
CA-13	Pete Stark		52.6	51 (Obama)
CA-20	Jim Costa	Yes	48.0	21 (Obama)
CO-03	John Salazar	Yes	22.8	2 (McCain)
GA-08	Jim Marshall	Yes	14.4	13 (McCain)
GA-12	John Barrow	Yes	32.0	9 (Obama)
ID-01	Walt Minnick	Yes	1.6	26 (McCain)
IL-12	Jerry Costello		46.9	13 (Obama)
IL-14	Bill Foster		14.8	11 (Obama)
IN-01	Peter Visclosky		43.7	25 (Obama)
IN-02	Joe Donnelly	Yes	36.9	9 (Obama)
IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	Yes	30.6	4 (McCain)
LA-03	Charlie Melancon	Yes	100.0	24 (McCain)
MS-01	Travis Childers	Yes	10.4	25 (McCain)
MS-04	Gene Taylor	Yes	49.2	35 (McCain)
NC-07	Mike McIntyre	Yes	37.6	5 (McCain)
NC-08	Larry Kissell		10.8	5 (Obama)
ND-AL	Earl Pomeroy	Yes	24.0	8 (McCain)
NY-24	Michael Arcuri	Yes	2.8	2 (Obama)
NY-29	Eric Massa		1.8	2 (McCain)
OH-06	Charles Wilson	Yes	29.5	2 (McCain)
OH-10	Dennis Kucinich		17.4	20 (Obama)
OK-02	Dan Boren	Yes	41.0	32 (McCain)
OR-04	Peter DeFazio		69.4	11 (Obama)
PA-03	Kathy Dahlkemper	Yes	3.0	0 (McCain)
PA-04	Jason Altmire	Yes	12.0	11 (McCain)
PA-10	Christopher Carney	Yes	12.8	9 (McCain)
PA-17	Tim Holden	Yes	27.6	3 (McCain)
SD-AL	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	Yes	35.2	8 (McCain)
TN-04	Lincoln Davis	Yes	21.0	30 (McCain)
TN-08	John Tanner	Yes	100.0	13 (McCain)
TX-17	Chet Edwards		3.1	35 (McCain)
TX-23	Ciro Rodriguez		13.9	3 (Obama)
TX-27	Solomon Ortiz		19.5	7 (Obama)
UT-02	Jim Matheson	Yes	28.4	18 (McCain)
VA-02	Glenn Nye	Yes	4.9	2 (Obama)
WV-01	Alan Mollohan		100.0	11 (McCain)
WV-03	Nick Rahall		34.0	14 (McCain)

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Wisconsin Overtakes Minnesota as #1 State in Health Care Quality Rankings

2009-06-28T20:04:45Z

The newly released 2008 state rankings by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Service's Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (AHRQ) finds the State of Wisconsin has passed Minnesota for overall health care quality in the United States.

Minnesota, ranked #2 in 2008, was the top state in the country in 2007. Wisconsin had also been #1 in 2006.

The rankings are based on data cultivated from 30+ sources, such as government surveys, health care facilities, and health care organizations.

AHRQ examines health care quality measures across three large dimensions:

1) Type of care (preventive, acute, and chronic care),
2) Setting of care (hospitals, ambulatory, nursing homes, and home health care)
3) Clinical areas (cancer, diabetes, heart disease, maternal and child health, and respiratory disease).

Overall, the Upper Midwestern states boasted some of the best scores in the country with all of Minnesota's neighboring states landing in the Top 10: Wisconsin at #1, Minnesota at #2, North Dakota at #8, South Dakota at #9, and Iowa at #10.

However, aside from Wisconsin, all of the other Upper Midwestern states slipped in the rankings from the previous year:

· Minnesota fell from #1 to #2
· North Dakota fell from #3 to #8
· Iowa fell from #4 to #10
· South Dakota fell from #7 to #9

Minnesota received a "strong" rating in the areas of preventative care, acute care, hospital care, nursing home care, ambulatory care, and in the clinical areas of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, and respiratory diseases. Performance is based on a relative scale in comparison to all states reporting such data.

The Gopher State only received an "average" ranking in chronic care and maternal and child health measures, and was considered "very weak" in the area of home health care (again, vis-à-vis the other 50 states and the District of Columbia).

The State of New York enjoyed the biggest jump in the rankings, improving from 42nd in 2007 to 28th in 2008 - a 14-state bump. Georgia (+10, 50th to 40th), Missouri (+9, 34th to 25th), Virginia (+7, 28th to 21st), and Massachusetts (+7, 10th to 3rd) also had notable improvements.

Wyoming, on the other side of the coin, saw their state ranking fall 16 slots, from 19th to 35th among the states. New Mexico (-11, 36th to 47th), Utah (-7, 11th to 18th) and Indiana (-7, 35th to 42nd) also endured a significant downgrading of their health care systems relative to the rest of the country.

AHRQ Health Care Quality Rankings by State, 2008

2008 Rank	2007 Rank	State	2008	2007	Change
1	2	WI	69.20	66.04	3.16
2	1	MN	65.38	66.96	-1.58
3	10	MA	63.91	60.65	3.26
4	9	NH	63.51	60.75	2.76
5	6	MI	63.18	61.47	1.71
6	8	RI	62.50	61.21	1.29
7	5	NE	61.84	62.26	-0.42
8	3	ND	61.36	64.02	-2.66
9	7	SD	59.77	61.39	-1.62
10	4	IA	59.57	62.39	-2.82
11	16	NJ	58.75	56.70	2.05
12	14	ME	58.24	57.83	0.41
13	13	CT	58.04	58.06	-0.02
14	15	VT	57.77	57.62	0.15
15	12	MT	55.98	58.13	-2.15
16	18	CO	55.51	55.79	-0.28
17	17	HI	52.23	56.52	-4.29
18	11	UT	52.23	59.72	-7.49
19	20	DE	52.20	53.70	-1.50
20	23	WA	52.16	50.43	1.73
21	28	VA	49.47	46.25	3.22
22	21	AK	49.38	50.68	-1.30
23	24	CA	48.74	50.00	-1.26
24	22	ID	48.33	50.61	-2.28
25	34	MO	48.31	41.81	6.50
26	30	NC	47.90	44.64	3.26
27	27	PA	47.85	46.28	1.57
28	42	NY	47.06	38.84	8.22
29	31	SC	46.93	43.93	3.00
30	26	OR	46.58	49.07	-2.49
31	25	KS	44.30	50.00	-5.70
32	33	WV	43.28	41.96	1.32
33	29	AZ	43.22	46.05	-2.83
34	40	AL	42.55	40.12	2.43
35	19	WY	42.17	53.85	-11.68
36	32	MD	40.99	42.11	-1.12
37	38	OH	40.78	40.48	0.30
38	37	IL	39.64	40.74	-1.10
39	41	FL	38.56	38.93	-0.37
40	50	GA	38.24	27.36	10.88
41	39	OK	38.03	40.23	-2.20
42	35	IN	37.98	40.82	-2.84
43	46	TN	36.44	34.84	1.60
44	45	TX	36.36	35.10	1.26
45	47	DC	35.62	33.33	2.29
46	43	KY	35.47	36.36	-0.89
47	36	NM	35.00	40.76	-5.76
48	49	AR	34.87	27.98	6.89
49	44	NV	33.61	35.53	-1.92
50	48	MS	30.00	29.63	0.37
51	51	LA	26.06	18.97	7.09

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Service's Agency for Health Care Research and Quality. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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Why Doesn't Amy Klobuchar Run for Governor?

2009-06-26T05:21:07Z

Despite overwhelming success in federal and state elections during the past few decades, the DFL may have missed its best chances (in 1998, 2006) to win a gubernatorial election in the Gopher State.

Excluding gubernatorial contests, the DFL has won 72 percent of statewide elections (21 of 29) since the Election of 1986, when the DFL last won a governor's race with Rudy Perpich. During that span, the DFL has also won 66 percent of US House races (58 of 88), 62 percent of state Senate contests (261 of 424), and 54 percent of state House races (813 of 1,502).

With Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty's announcement that he would not seek a third term, the floodgates have opened for both former and current city (R.T. Rybak, Chris Coleman), county (Susan Gaertner), state (Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, John Marty, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Paul Thissen, Marty Siefert, Laura Brod, Bill Hass, David Hann, Paul Koering, Paul Kohls), and federal (Mark Dayton) DFL and GOP officeholders to explore or outright announce their gubernatorial candidacies.

But there is one officeholder who would certainly "clear the field" of candidates on the DFL side of the ticket, and that is U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar. Although Norm Coleman's name has been (all too casually) tossed about as a potential GOP candidate, there have been few public efforts to "recruit Amy" by DFLers.

Statewide, Klobuchar is the most popular DFL officeholder the party has produced in decades. The Senator's approval rating is one of the highest in the US Senate - and also one of the most consistent. A Smart Politics analysis of SurveyUSA data finds Klobuchar's approval rating has hovered between 58 and 63 percent in 21 straight polls dating back to July 2007.

During that span the approval ratings of some of her neighboring Senators have fluctuated wildly:

· This year Wisconsin senior Senator Herb Kohl saw his approval rating drop from 64 percent (in January) to 50 percent (in March) during the state's economic crisis.

· Wisconsin junior Senator Russ Feingold's approval rating dipped to as low as 48 percent in September 2008, before rebounding to 61 percent in January 2009, and then falling in May back to 53 percent.

· Iowa senior Senator Charles Grassley has seen his 71 percent approval rating in February dip to 58 percent in May, due in part to some controversial comments.

· Iowa junior Senator Tom Harkin saw his 63 percent approval rating he received one month after getting elected in November 2008 drop to 51 percent in April 2009.

So, why doesn't Klobuchar make a run at what would appear to be a clear path to the Governor's mansion?

First of all, it is quite likely that Klobuchar (her double-duty constituency caseload aside) enjoys her work at the nation's Capitol. The Senator has smartly not used her 2006 landslide victory to pursue an extremely liberal agenda, which has perhaps contributed to her sustained appeal among moderates and liberal Republicans (National Journal rated Klobuchar as the 37th most liberal and 60th most conservative Senator in 2008).

Secondly, it might seem a bit politically unseemly for Klobuchar to run for governor without having first completed the 6-year term to which she was elected. At the moment, given the unresolved 2008 U.S. Senate contest, Klobuchar is also in many ways 'trapped' in her D.C. job. To announce her candidacy for governor at a time when the Gopher State needs her the most in Washington (having only one Senator on the payroll), would not be politically prudent.

The problem for Klobuchar, should she ever have such ambitions to run for governor, is that the election for her U.S. Senate seat does not coincide with a gubernatorial election until 2018.

The general rule of thumb is that most politicians want to join the most exclusive club to which they can receive membership. This is why Vice-President Joe Biden (1 of 1) and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (1 of 15) chose to become members of President Barack Obama's Cabinet rather than remain in the Senate (1 of 100). The Governor's Club (1 of 50), while not as exclusive, is still twice as exclusive as being a U.S. Senator.

And while Klobuchar has already achieved one previously unprecented accomplishment in the Gopher State - the first female elected U.S. Senator - it is not unfathomable that she has also thought about another first: becoming MInnesota's first female governor (let alone the first major party female gubernatorial candidate).

But for now, and perhaps for quite some time, all is quiet on the eastern front, and "RecruitAmy.com" domain names remain readily available.

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Is New GOP House Minority Leader Kurt Zellers Politically Vulnerable?

2009-06-25T04:25:52Z

The Minnesota House Republican's selection of Kurt Zellers (32B-Maple Grove) as their new Minority Leader may not be unusual in terms of the 4-term legislator's political ideology (conservative) or policy positions (pro tax cuts and fiscal responsibility), but it is unusual within the context of his electoral track record and potential political vulnerability.

The previous caucus leaders selected by House Republicans during the last two decades (Steve Sviggum, Tim Pawlenty, Erik Paulsen, Marty Seifert) have all represented very safe districts, with each representative winning by large double-digit margins during their reelection campaigns.

Unlike his predecessors, however, Zellers has not enjoyed particularly comfortable margins of victory during his three (successful) campaigns to defend his northwest metro area seat. (Zellers first won the district in a special election on February 25, 2003 to fill Republican Rich Stanek's vacated seat).

· In 2004, Zellers defeated DFLer John Olson by 12.7 points, winning 53.0 percent of the vote in a race in which Independence Party candidate Terry Brennan received 6.6 percent.

· In 2006, Zellers narrowly won a third term, earning a plurality 48.5 percent of the vote in a 2.2-point victory over DFLer Lee Carlson. IP candidate Brennan received 5.1 percent of the vote in his second run at Zellers' seat. Governor Tim Pawlenty carried District 32B by 16.4 points that year, with Zellers underperforming down the ballot vis-à-vis Pawlenty's margin of victory by 14.2 points.

· In 2008, Zellers won another competitive race in his rematch against Carlson - this time by a 6.3-point margin. Norm Coleman won Zeller's district by 12.7 points - more than double the margin secured by Zellers. (Zellers did outperform John McCain, however).

The contrast between Zellers' 6.3-point win in 2008 prior to becoming Minority Leader and the margin of victories won by Sviggum, Pawlenty, Paulsen, and Seifert in the elections leading up to their securing caucus leadership positions is actually quite stark:

· In 1992, Sviggum won his 28B district race by 21.4 points, winning 60.7 percent of the vote before becoming Minority Leader in 1993.

· In 1999, Pawlenty became Majority Leader after winning his District 38B contest in 1998 with 68.1 percent of the vote - cruising to a 36.3-point victory.

· In 2002, Paulsen won his 42B race by 44.0 points, carrying 72.0 percent of the vote. Paulsen became Majority Leader in 2003.

· In 2006, Seifert won his 21A contest by 21.5 points, winning 60.7 percent of the vote and becoming Minority Leader in 2007.

Margin of Victory for Minnesota House GOP Caucus Leaders Prior to Earning Leadership Position, 1992-2008

Year	Leader	Position	District	Percent	MoV
1992	Steve Sviggum	Minority Leader	28B	60.7	21.4
1998	Tim Pawlenty	Majority Leader	38B	68.1	36.3
2002	Erik Paulsen	Majority Leader	42B	72.0	44.0
2006	Marty Seifert	Minority Leader	21A	60.7	21.5
2008	Kurt Zellers	Minority Leader	32B	53.1	6.3

These large margin of victories for Zellers' predecessors are not aberrations - the Representatives had a long track record of blow-out elections:

· Sviggum won his 8 races from 1992 through 2006 by an average margin of 42.4 points.

· Pawlenty won his 5 House contests from 1992 through 2000 by an average of 54.4 points.

· Paulsen won his 7 House races from 1994 through 2006 by a 37.8-point average victory margin.

· Seifert won his 7 House races from 1996 through 2008 by an average of 29.9 points.

Zellers, meanwhile, has won his 4 contests by an average margin of victory of just 10.3 points, or about 1/3 that of Seifert, 1/4 that of Paulsen and Sviggum, and 1/5 that of Pawlenty.

Although his responsibilities now and during the 2010 session will focus on setting his caucus' agenda, recruiting Republican candidates for the 2010 election, and fundraising for the GOP, Zellers, unlike his predecessors, will also have to keep one eye on his DFL opponent in his own district race, to make sure he is in a position to return to the House in 2011.

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Iowa Endures Largest Monthly Increase in Unemployment in Quarter Century

2009-06-24T04:12:42Z

The new numbers released late last week by Iowa Workforce Development continue to highlight the worst employment trend the Hawkeye State has faced in more than three decades.

Iowa's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 5.1 in April to 5.8 percent in May - the biggest net and percentage increase in more than 24 years.

Since January 1976, Iowa has endured a double-digit percentage month-to-month increase in unemployment in only two months: January 1985 (23.5 percent) and May 2009 (13.7 percent).

Largest Monthly Percentage Increases in Unemployment in Iowa, 1976-2009

Month	Rate	% Increase
January 1985	8.4	23.5
May 2009	5.8	13.7
January 2009	4.8	9.1
March 2009	5.2	6.1
December 1979	4.9	4.3

The net 0.7-point increase in May 2009 is also the second largest net jump in unemployment during this 33+ year span.

Over the past four decades, Iowa has had a remarkably stable workforce and, since January 1976, unemployment has risen by more than one-tenth of a percent in just 8 out of 400 months. However, three of these largest net increases have occurred in 2009.

Largest Monthly Net Increases in Unemployment in Iowa, 1976-2009

Month	Rate	Net Increase
January 1985	8.4	1.6
May 2009	5.8	0.7
January 2009	4.8	0.4
March 2009	5.2	0.3
December 1979	4.9	0.2
April 1980	5.4	0.2
August 1980	5.9	0.2
December 1981	7.6	0.2

Iowa has had by far the most stable unemployment numbers throughout the Upper Midwest since the 1970s.

By contrast, Minnesota has had the largest number of months with a greater than 0.1-point increase in unemployment in the region, with more than 8 times as many months (65) with such increases as Iowa (8).

Wisconsin is close behind with 64 months, followed by North and South Dakota.

Months With More Than 0.1-Point Increase in Unemployment by State, 1976-2009

State	Months
Minnesota	65
Wisconsin	64
North Dakota	54
South Dakota	34
Iowa	8

Iowa Governor Chet Culver has not fared well politically during this economic downturn. Culver finished out 2008 strong with a 57 percent approval rating in December. However, that rating fell to 50 percent in January and then below the 50 percent mark in each of the five subsequent monthly polls, currently settling at 42 percent in June (SurveyUSA).

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