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Minnesota’s 1st CD Contest Podiums for Closest US House Elections in State History

2026-11-04T21:58:33Z

The 1st CD has hosted 3 of the Top 15 most competitive races for the office in state history in just the last 10 years

Despite losing to Minnesota 1st CD Republican incumbent Brad Finstad by double-digits during the last two election cycles (including by 17.1 points in 2024), the DFL targeted the three-term legislator and appears to have eked out an extremely narrow victory.

With all 750 precincts reporting, DFL Rochester teacher Jake Johnson leads Finstad by just 323 votes, or 0.10 percentage points with a recount expected.

If that margin holds, the contest will rank as the third smallest victory margin out of the more than 625 general and special U.S. House elections held in Minnesota since statehood.

[Note: This study excludes statewide elections to at-large U.S. House seats in which multiple seats were awarded in the same race (e.g. elections prior to the drawing of congressional districts in 1862 and in 1932 when all nine seats were elected at-large in a single contest)].

Tuesday’s contest was just the 17th election to the nation’s lower legislative chamber in the Gopher State with a margin of victory of less than one percentage point.

Seven of these have occurred since 1992.

The closest U.S. House race in Minnesota history came 26 years ago: the 2000 2nd CD matchup between four-term DFLer David Minge and Republican Mark Kennedy.

Kennedy nipped Minge by 0.05 points (155 votes) in a five-candidate field with more than 288,000 ballots cast.

That race was slightly tighter than 1986’s 7th CD matchup in which five-term Republican Arlan Stangeland defeated State Senator Collin Peterson by 0.06 points. [Peterson eventually won a rematch in 1990].

Stangeland also won the 10th most narrowly decided U.S. House race in state history when he beat former State Representative Gene Wenstrom by 0.55 points in 1982.

Johnson’s apparent victory on Tuesday marks the fourth election decided by less than a point over the last decade (three of these in the 1st CD).

In 2016, five-term U.S. Rep. Tim Walz escaped with a 0.76-point win over Republican Jim Hagedorn (2,549 votes) in a 1st CD rematch of a 2014 race that saw the Democratic congressman win by 8.5 points.

In that same cycle, 8th CD Congressman Rick Nolan defeated his 2014 challenger Stewart Mills by 0.56 points (2,021 votes) – two years after Nolan survived a 1.4-point win over the Republican political newcomer.

In 2018, Hagedorn won in his third attempt in the 1st CD winning the open seat race by 0.45 points against former Department of Defense employee Dan Feehan.

Since redistricting after the 2020 U.S. Census, the average victory margin in Minnesota’s U.S. House races has been 24.6 points.

That is significantly higher than the 18.2-point average across the 40 elections held from 2012 through 2020 – the most competitive the state had seen since the five cycles following redistricting after the 1950 U.S. Census.

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All-Woman Minnesota DFL Congressional Delegation Poised to End This Cycle

2026-11-03T03:16:42Z

No other state party is represented only by women in both national legislative chambers

Minnesota – often enjoying political outlier status – is about to see one unique bullet point on its electoral resume end after the November elections.

Minnesota is currently the only state in which a major political party has an all-woman delegation to both legislative chambers in Washington, D.C.

For the 119th Congress, women DFLers owned both U.S. Senate seats (Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith) plus all four of the party’s U.S. House districts (Angie Craig in the 2nd CD, Kelly Morrison in the 3rd, Betty McCollum in the 4th, and Ilhan Omar in the 5th).

The contest for retiring Senator Smith’s seat has four candidates on the general election ballot – all women – including DFL Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan.

However, the DFL nomination in the 2nd CD to succeed Craig – who lost the U.S. Senate nomination to Flanagan – was won by former State Senator Matt Little, who is projected to hold the seat in this expected Democratic-friendly cycle.

[The DFL is also eying a pick-up in the 1st CD behind another male nominee – Rochester high school teacher Jake Johnson].

As previously reported at Smart Politics, the U.S. Senate has a historically low number of split-U.S. Senate delegations – only four states: Maine, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

Of the remaining 46 states represented by a single party in the U.S. Senate only four are comprised of two women (each of these are Democratic): Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Washington.

In Nevada, Senators Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto are joined by two women U.S. Representatives (Dina Titus and Susie Lee) and one man (Steven Horsford). Horsford is favored in his bid for another term.

In New Hampshire, the Democratic delegation is comprised of Senators Maggie Hassan and the retiring Jeanne Shaheen plus U.S. Representatives Maggie Goodlander and Chris Pappas. While Shaheen’s daughter Stefany Shaheen is favored to hold Pappas’ 1st CD seat, Pappas is expected to hold Shaheen’s U.S. Senate seat.

In Washington, Democratic U.S. Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell are joined by a mix of six Democratic women in the U.S. House (Suzan DelBene, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Emily Randall, Pramila Jayapal, Kim Schrier, Marilyn Strickland) and two men (Rick Larsen and Adam Smith). All are running for another term.

[It should be noted that Republicans in one state do have a congressional delegation without men – Maine – but there are currently no Republican U.S. Representatives serving with Senator Susan Collins in D.C.].

Taking a look at Minnesota’s legislative bench, there are far more women running for the State Senate and State House for the DFL than the Republican Party.

For Tuesday’s 67 State Senate elections, the DFL nominated 35 women and 32 men, compared to 49 men and 14 women for the GOP.

For the 134 State House contests, the DFL nominated 72 men, 61 women, and one transgender candidate with Republicans nominating 88 men and 29 women.

No states are projected to see a major party represented only by women in both chambers after the 2026 elections.

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A Brief History of Democrats Flipping Southern US Senate Seats

2026-10-29T03:54:41Z

Democrats could flip U.S. Senate seats in two southern states for just the second time since the mid-1980s

As Democrats calculate various scenarios in which they might claw back control of the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections, some southern states have become unusually prominent pieces on the political chess board.

Prognosticators are confident Democrats will hold each of the two southern seats they currently control on the ballot this cycle (Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Mark Warner in Virginia) as well as take control of North Carolina’s open seat behind former Governor Roy Cooper (pictured).

The nation’s most expensive matchup for the office this cycle – Texas Democratic State Rep. James Talarico versus Attorney General Ken Paxton – has dominated campaign headlines for more than half a year and is squarely in toss-up territory at the least for the challenger.

Meanwhile, the mid-summer death of long-serving Republican Lindsey Graham in South Carolina has seemingly put that state’s race in play between appointed incumbent (and sister) Darline Graham and Democratic physician Annie Andrews.

In addition, the race between Mississippi Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and district attorney Scott Colom has drawn increased attention in recent weeks in light of competitive polling and a few high profile campaign gaffes by the GOP nominee.

[Democratic nominees running against southern incumbents in Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, and West Virginia and in open-seat races in Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Oklahoma have not captured the attention of the media or prognosticators as competitive matchups].

Should Democrats prevail in North Carolina and one additional state, it will mark one of their most successful cycles in the south in U.S. Senate elections over the last several decades.

[Note: For the purposes of this article, the ‘South’ is defined as 14 of the 16 states designated as southern by the U.S. Census – excepting Delaware and Maryland].

Since Barack Obama was inaugurated in 2009, Democrats have only flipped three GOP-held U.S. Senate seats out of 59 opportunities (5.1 percent).

Republicans held all 30 such seats on the ballot in the region during the 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 cycles, before losing the 2017 special election in Alabama with Doug Jones eking out a 1.6-point victory over embattled GOP nominee Roy Moore.

Democrats have flipped only two of the subsequent 28 Republican-held seats in the South – both in Georgia during the 2020 cycle (with Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock unseating David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler respectively).

The last time Democrats flipped seats in two or more southern states was in 2008 when State Senator Kay Hagan unseated Elizabeth Dole by 8.5 points in North Carolina while former Virginia Governor Mark Warner crushed former Governor Jim Gilmore by 31.2 points in an open seat race.

Since the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Democrats have taken back control of U.S. Senate seats in at least two southern states in just two other cycles.

In 1974:

Florida: Secretary of State Richard Stone scored a 2.5-point plurality victory over businessman Jack Eckerd in an open seat race
Kentucky: Governor Wendell Ford unseated Marlow Cook by 9.4 points

And in 1986:

Alabama: U.S. Representative Richard Shelby beat incumbent Jeremiah Denton by 0.6 points
Florida: Governor Bob Graham defeated Senator Paula Hawkins by 8.4 points
Georgia: U.S. Representative Wyche Fowler edged incumbent Mack Mattingly by 1.8 points
North Carolina: Former Governor Terry Sanford beat incumbent Jim Broyhill by 3.6 points in the general election and by 1.8 points in the special

Democrats also took back control of U.S. Senate seats in Kentucky in 1972, Florida in 2000, Tennessee in 1976 and 1984, Oklahoma in 1978, Virginia in 1988 and 2006, North Carolina in 1998, and Arkansas in 2002.

There are five southern states where Democrats have yet to flip a U.S. Senate seat since the 1964 Civil Rights Act: Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia.

Democrats last flipped a GOP-held seat in West Virginia in 1958 – with Jennings Randolph and Robert Byrd knocking John Hoblitzell and Chapman Revercomb out of office respectively. The party held each of those seats into the 2010s.

Democrats have never flipped a Republican U.S. Senate seat during the direct election era in Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. The party did not have an opportunity to do so until 1966 in South Carolina and Texas, 1984 in Mississippi, and 2010 in Louisiana.

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A Brief History of Significant Independent and Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates

2026-10-22T18:51:48Z

Voters in all but four states have given at least 10 percent support to one or more third party or independent candidates for governor since 1900

Smart Politics recently wrote about the significant step back Libertarians have taken this cycle in fielding gubernatorial candidates.

But what can we expect from across the spectrum of independent and third party candidates running for governor this November?

In 11 of the last 12 midterms dating back to 1982, at least two non-major party candidates have received double-digit support in elections for governor – all but the 2018 cycle, when no such hopeful achieved this feat.

In fact, 40 candidates have reached double-digits across midterms held during this period, or an average of 3.3 candidates per cycle.

This November, only one non-major party candidate for governor appears to be heading for a finish out of the single digits – Rhode Island independent Ken Block.

Block, who founded the Moderate Party in the state, won 6.5 percent as his party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and subsequently lost the GOP nomination for the office by 9.8 points to Cranston Mayor Allan Fung four years later.

Since the summer, Block has consistently polled in second place in this cycle’s Rhode Island race, well ahead of GOP nominee Aaron Guckian.

Rhode Island owns one of the 18 gubernatorial victories by non-major party candidates since 1900, with Republican-turned-independent Lincoln Chafee escaping with a 36.1 percent plurality victory in 2010. [That number excludes multiple victorious Republican/Non-Partisan League nominees in North Dakota during the late 1910s and 1920s].

Since 1900, all but four states have seen 10 percent or more of their electorate back a third party or independent (or write-in) gubernatorial candidate at least one time.

Minnesota, buoyed in large part by a generation of competitive Farmer-Laborite nominees, leads the nation over the last 125 years with candidates reaching that milestone 17 times (including victories in 1930 (Floyd Olson), 1932 (Olson), 1934 (Olson), 1936 (Elmer Benson), and 1998 (Reform nominee Jesse Ventura).

Wisconsin is next with 12 candidates, followed by Maine with 10, Alaska and Idaho with eight each, and Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont with six apiece.

Fifteen states have had at least one candidate accomplish this feat during the 21st Century: Minnesota (2002, 2010), Oklahoma (2002), New York (2002), Wisconsin (2002), Illinois (2006), Maine (2006, 2010), Texas (2006, two candidates), Vermont (2008, 2020), Colorado (2010), Rhode Island (2010, 2014), Alaska (2014, 2022), Hawaii (2014), Indiana (2020), Idaho (2022), and Utah (2024).

The four states that have not seen a non-major party candidate for governor reach double digits since the 19th Century are Maryland (1857), South Carolina (1894), Wyoming (1894), and Delaware (1896).

Below is a list indicating the most recent year a gubernatorial candidate from a non-major party reached double-digits in each state.

Alabama (1970): National Democratic Party of Alabama nominee John Cashin (14.7 percent; no Republican on the ballot)
Alaska (2022): Independent Bill Walker (20.7 percent)
Arizona (1986): Independent Bill Schulz (25.8 percent)
Arkansas (1913): Progressive George Murphy (10.1 percent)
California (1934): Progressive Raymond Haight (13.0 percent)
Colorado (2010): Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo (36.4 percent)
Connecticut (1994): A Connecticut Party nominee Eunice Groark (18.9 percent) and independent Tom Scott (11.3 percent)
Delaware (1896): Union Republican John Hoffecker (31.4 percent)
Florida (1916): Prohibitionist Sidney Catts (47.7 percent, won)
Georgia (1900): Populist George Traylor (21.4 percent, no Republican on the ballot)
Hawaii (2014): Independent Mufi Hannemann (11.7 percent)
Idaho (2022): Independent Ammon Bundy (17.2 percent)
Illinois (2006): Green Rich Whitney (10.4 percent)
Indiana (2020): Libertarian Donald Rainwater (11.4 percent)
Iowa (1912): Progressive John Stevens (15.6 percent)
Kansas (1932): Independent John Brinkley (30.6 percent)
Kentucky (1999): Reform nominee Gatewood Galbraith (15.3 percent)
Louisiana (1916): Progressive John Parker (37.2 percent, no Republican on the ballot)
Maine (2010): Independent Eliot Cutler (36.4 percent)
Maryland (1857): Know Nothing John Groome (45.1 percent)
Massachusetts (1913): Progressive Charles Bird (27.7 percent)
Michigan (1912): Progressive L. Whitney Watkins (28.3 percent)
Minnesota (2010): Independence Tom Horner (11.9 percent)
Mississippi (1971): Independent Charles Evers (22.1 percent, no Republican on the ballot)
Missouri (1912): Progressive Albert Norton (15.6 percent)
Montana (1912): Progressive Frank Edwards (23.6 percent) and Socialist Lewis Duncan (16.0 percent)
Nebraska (1938): Independent Charles Bryan (15.4 percent)
Nevada (1974): Independent American James Houston (15.5 percent)
New Hampshire (1972): Independent Malcolm McLane (19.6 percent)
New Jersey (1913): Progressive Everett Colby (11.0 percent)
New Mexico (1994): Green Roberto Mondragon (10.3 percent)
New York (2002): Independence nominee Tom Golisano (14.3 percent)
North Carolina (1912): Progressive Iredell Meares (20.4 percent)
North Dakota (1936): Non-Partisan Leaguer Wild Bill Langer (35.8 percent)
Ohio (1912): Progressive Arthur Garford (20.7 percent)
Oklahoma (2002): Independent Gary Richardson (14.1 percent)
Oregon (1990): Independent Al Mobley (13.0 percent)
Pennsylvania (1998): Constitution Party nominee Peg Luksik (10.4 percent)
Rhode Island (2014): Moderate Robert Healey (21.4 percent)
South Carolina (1894): Independent Sampson Pope (30.4 percent)
South Dakota (1924): Farmer-Laborite A.L. Putnam (13.3 percent)
Tennessee (1962): Independent William Anderson (32.8 percent)
Texas (2006): Independent Carole Stayhorn (18.1 percent) and independent Kinky Friedman (12.5 percent)
Utah (2024): Write-in Phil Lyman (13.5 percent)
Vermont (2020): Progressive David Zuckerman (27.4 percent, no Democrat on the ballot)
Virginia (1973): Independent Henry Howell (49.3 percent, no Democrat on the ballot)
Washington (1924): Progressive J.R. Oman (10.3 percent)
West Virginia (1920): Independent S.B. Montgomery (15.9 percent)
Wisconsin (2002): Libertarian Ed Thompson (10.5 percent)
Wyoming (1894): Populist Louis Tidball (11.3 percent)

Of the 164 gubernatorial candidacies notching 10 or more percent of the vote since the 20th Century, 100 were recorded between 1900 and 1942. Just 64 candidates received this level of support during the subsequent 80+ years from 1943 to 2025.

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Will Libertarians Leave a Footprint in 2026’s Gubernatorial Elections?

2026-10-14T21:27:47Z

The nation’s third largest party suffers a large setback in candidates for governor this cycle

After experiencing a record boom in candidates for governor four years ago, the Libertarian Party will field its lowest number of nominees for the office in 40 years next month.

Libertarians appeared on the ballot for governor in 26 states in 2022, with seven nominees winning at least two percent of the vote.

This cycle, voters in just eight states will be able to support Libertarian candidates in November – a low water mark last seen in 1986. The eight states are Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. [Note: Georgia Libertarian nominee (and 2024 presidential nominee) Chase Oliver withdrew from the governor’s race in May; California Libertarian Tom Woodard withdrew during that state’s jungle primary, but still appeared on the ballot].

Each of these states with the exception of Ohio also fielded nominees in 2022, along with 19 others that failed to land candidates on the ballot this cycle.

The Libertarian Party first nominated a candidate for governor in 1973 – John Goodson of New Jersey who notched 0.1 percent of the general election vote.

The party nominated gubernatorial candidates in seven states in 1978 and then broke through in 19 states during the 1982 midterms.

That number dropped to just eight states in 1986 but then increased steadily to 10 states in 1990, 15 in 1994, 19 in 1998, and 25 in 2002.

After dropping to 15 states during the 2006 midterms, the party rebounded again with nominees in 19 states in 2010, 22 in 2014, 23 in 2018, and then 26 in 2022.

The number of Libertarian candidates for governor – as well as support at the ballot box – has generally grown each decade:

1970s: 14 candidates, averaging 0.50 percent of the vote
1980s: 42 candidates (1.20 percent)
1990s: 55 candidates (1.80 percent)
2000s: 67 candidates (1.40 percent)
2010s: 88 candidates (2.00 percent)
2020s: 50 candidates (2.13 percent, through 2025)

How are Libertarians slated to fare across these eight states in November?

Support for Libertarian (and independent and other third party candidates) is often difficult to predict, as purported backing of such candidates tends to wane from pre-election polling to Election Day.

That said, some 2026 candidates have received notable support in recent polling such as Cecil farmer Colt Shelby in Arkansas, Ohio television station operator Don Kissick, and former Texas Libertarian Party chair and Lago Vista City Councilor Pat Dixon.

Substantial vote totals for Libertarians in Ohio and Texas could be determinative as those two states are expected to have competitive elections. [No other independent or third party options will be on the ballot in these states].

The high water mark for the party in an Ohio gubernatorial race is 2.4 percent by Ken Matesz in 2010 while Texas Libertarians are looking to eclipse the 3.3 percent received by Jeff Daiell back in 1990.

The other Libertarian nominees on the ballot for governor this cycle are U.S. Army veteran Eric Mulder in Colorado, Boca Raton businessman Scott Jewett in Florida, retired computer software engineer Paul Sand in Idaho, truck driver Anthony Hudson in Michigan, and Abington information technology firm owner Ken Krawchuk in Pennsylvania.

For perspective, only five of the 309 Libertarian gubernatorial candidates in party history have received at least five percent of the vote:

Alaska (1982): State Representative Dick Randolph (14.91 percent)
Indiana (2020): Donald Rainwater (11.44 percent)
Wisconsin (2002): Tomah Mayor Ed Thompson (10.45 percent)
Virginia (2013): Former lawyer and software engineer Robert Sarvis (6.52 percent)
Arizona (1982): Former five-term GOP U.S. Representative Sam Steiger (5.05 percent)

A total of 88 of the 309 Libertarian nominees for the office have won at least 2.0 percent of the vote, or 28.5 percent. Fifty-three of those have done so since the 2010 cycle.

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A Brief History of Minnesota Partisan Statewide Elections

2026-11-04T21:15:23Z

Democrats may see their party’s fifth largest winning streak end in the Gopher State this November

Despite bleak forecasts for Republican candidates in purple and even some red states across much of the nation this cycle, the Minnesota GOP is bullish that they can be an outlier and make inroads in their state, just as they did during Trump’s first midterm in 2018.

Eight years ago, Democrats netted more than 40 U.S. House seats and took back control of the chamber while Republicans only flipped two seats in the country – both in Minnesota (the 1st and 8th CDs in the southern and northern parts of the state respectively).

Republicans may have fielded their strongest statewide ticket since the 2006 cycle, when Tim Pawlenty became the last GOPer to win a statewide race in Minnesota.

The DFL has won each of the last 28 statewide elections – the fifth largest active Democratic winning streak in the nation behind California (41), New Mexico (31), Connecticut (31), and New York (30).

That statistic, however, belies how close Minnesota Republicans have come to winning many high profile contests in the state during this twenty-year period.

Seventeen of these 28 consecutive GOP losses have been single-digit affairs with seven nail-biters decided by less than two percentage points: 2008 U.S. Senate (0.01 points), 2010 Governor (0.42), 2010 Auditor (1.26), 2014 Secretary of State (1.17), 2016 President (1.51), 2022 Auditor (0.34), and 2022 Attorney General (0.84).

Polling thus far suggests Minnesota GOP statewide candidates across the board have found some cover from the Trump drag experienced by their fellow candidates across much of the country – in part by going on offense on the state’s recent high profile fraud scandals that have occurred under years of DFL governance. [With coverage of the fraud coinciding with Governor Tim Walz abandoning his bid for a third term several months into his campaign].

Republicans have – if not become favored – at least moved into toss-up status for the constitutional offices of Auditor (an open seat race) and Attorney General (against incumbent Keith Ellison) and perhaps even the state’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Republican nominees for governor (State Representative Lisa Demuth) and Secretary of State (former DFL lawmaker Tad Jude) have also seemingly closed their respective spreads from double-digit deficits to the mid-single digits.

Given the Minnesota GOP’s inability to close the deal in high profile races over the last two decades, a victory for any of these five offices during a midterm with an unpopular Republican president would be a notable achievement.

And while the DFL has swept all statewide races in Minnesota for each of the last nine cycles dating back to 2008, it has been an especially long drought since Republicans ran the table.

Republicans have swept statewide elections in 38 cycles dating back to statehood in 1858, but it has been more than 75 years since the party last accomplished this feat.

During President Harry Truman’s second midterm in 1950, the Minnesota GOP won all nine statewide elections:

Governor: incumbent Luther Youngdahl to a third term
Lieutenant Governor: incumbent C. Elmer Anderson to a sixth nonconsecutive term
Secretary of State: incumbent Mike Holm to a 16th term
Attorney General: incumbent J.A.A. Burnquist to a seventh term
Auditor: incumbent Stafford King to a sixth term
Treasurer: newspaper editor Val Bjornson to an open seat
Supreme Court Clerk: incumbent Grace Kaercher to a seventh nonconsecutive term
Two contests for the Railroad and Warehouse Commission: appointed incumbent Leonard Lindquist in special and general elections

Republicans almost ran the table again in 1952 – winning nine races, but losing one of three seats on the ballot for the Railroad and Warehouse Commission.

Since 1954, the DFL has dominated at the ballot box in statewide elections: winning 110 of 144 contests (71.4 percent) compared to just 43 for the Republicans (and one for the Reform Party – Jesse Ventura for Governor in 1998).

With a few exceptions, Republicans controlled Minnesota politics for most of the 19th and early 20th Centuries.

Republicans won every statewide race for 23 of 24 cycles from 1859 through 1888 – losing only the office of Treasurer to incumbent Edwin Dike in 1873. [Dike was appointed as a Republican to the office but did not receive the GOP nomination later that year. He instead accepted the nomination to run on the Democratic-Anti-Monopolist ticket].

Republicans also swept the cycles of 1894, 1896, 1900, 1902, 1910, 1912, 1916, 1918, 1920, 1924, 1926, 1938, 1942, 1946, and 1950.

From 1859 through 1952, Republicans won 355 of 398 statewide races in Minnesota (89.2 percent) compared to 25 for the Farmer-Laborites and just 18 for the Democrats.

Aside from their nine-cycle run from 2008 through 2024, the DFL only carried every statewide office on the ballot during the election cycles of 1972 and 1974 (plus 1980, 1992, and 2004 when the only partisan statewide race in the state was for the presidency).

Prior to the merger, the only cycle in which the Democratic Party carried all statewide offices on the ballot was in late 1857 in advance of statehood when Democrats won six constitutional offices (governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general, treasurer) plus the office of Supreme Court clerk and two at-large U.S. House seats. The Farmer-Laborites never achieved this feat.

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Midwestern Democrats Eye Rare Gubernatorial Feat in 2026

2026-11-03T03:17:44Z

A group of six states in the region could elect Democratic governors in the same cycle for the first time in history

While Democrats remain cautiously bullish about their midterm electoral prospects up and down the ballot across the Midwest, the party may still not emerge with a majority of governorships in the 12-state region.

It has been nearly a generation since the last time Democrats controlled at least seven Midwestern governorships – where they currently hold the office in five states (Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).

Democrats last held seven seats heading into the 2010 midterms where they promptly ceded five to the GOP (Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) and flipped one (Minnesota).

This year, the party is optimistic about its chances to carry Iowa and Ohio – each for the first time in 20 years – but Democrats would still need to hold the aforementioned five states to win a majority of governorships provided they did not record any other pick-ups.

Most prognosticators suggest Illinois seems assured to stay blue, with Minnesota probable, Michigan and Wisconsin more likely than not, but Kansas more likely to flip back to the GOP. [South Dakota and Nebraska also hold gubernatorial elections during midterm cycles].

That said, Democrats have an opportunity this November to achieve a feat never before realized in the Midwest region: winning the governorships of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin all in the same cycle.

Since Iowa moved back to even-year elections in 1906, these six Midwestern states have simultaneously had gubernatorial contests on the ballot in 25 cycles: 13 cycles from 1908 through 1956 and 12 cycles from 1978 through 2022. [Ohio switched from two to four-year terms in 1958 and held its elections for governor exclusively in midterms while Illinois continued its tradition since 1848 of holding its contests in presidential election years until the late 1970s].

By contrast, Republicans have swept all six states five times: in 1920, 1928, 1978, 1990, and 1994.

During this period, Democrats have carried five of these six states just twice: in 1932 Minnesota reelected Farmer-Laborite Floyd Olson (with Democratic nominee and State Representative John Regan placing a distant third) and in 2006 Minnesota reelected Republican Tim Pawlenty (with DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch losing by less than a percentage point).

Republicans have carried five of these six states in five cycles: 1916 (all but Ohio), 1924 (Ohio), 1940 (Michigan), 1944 (Ohio), and 2014 (Minnesota).

Looking at smaller samples of these states, Democrats could also:

Carry Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio for just the second time since the late 19th Century, and the first time since 1958
Carry Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota for the third time ever and first time since 1958 (also 1956)

Iowa and Minnesota have not elected a governor from the same political party for the last seven cycles (the longest period in history), last doing so in 1994.

Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin have elected nominees from the same party for each of the last nine cycles since 1990.

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The Largest State Streaks Fielding Candidates from Both Major Parties in US House Races

2026-10-27T20:27:12Z

Minnesota overtakes New Hampshire this cycle for the largest streak in the nation, closing in at nearly 200 straight elections with a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot

The last state primaries were completed earlier this month and now the ballots are set for the nation’s 435 U.S. House elections to be conducted on November 3rd.

Forty-three states saw both Republican and Democratic candidates land on the general election ballot in every U.S. House district. [Or, in the case of Louisiana and Washington, at least on every district’s jungle primary ballot].

For some of these states this is hardly a novelty – with voters in four states getting a choice of both major political parties in every U.S. House race dating back to the 19th Century.

But for most states getting the choice of both parties cannot be taken for granted: 41 states have lacked at least one Republican or Democratic candidate in a U.S. House election since the 2000 cycle.

The nation now has a new leader by this measure in the State of Minnesota. Minnesota’s DFL and Republican parties have nominated candidates to its eight seats in every election cycle since 1980 (plus one special in 2022), for a total of 193 consecutive elections to the office. That is a streak of 24 straight election cycles.

The last candidate to run without major party opposition in Minnesota was DFLer Jim Oberstar in 1978 when he was challenged only by an American Party nominee to record his third of 18 victories from the state’s 8th CD in the Iron Range.

Minnesota’s streak is particularly notable due to its moderately large population (owning eight congressional districts since 1962). More districts means there are more opportunities for gerrymandering and extremely partisan districts where it is more difficult for the party out of power to recruit candidates.

However, even in DFL-heavy districts like the 4th CD (St. Paul) and 5th CD (Minneapolis), the Minnesota GOP has nonetheless continued to serve up nominees cycle after cycle – despite regularly losing those districts by large double-digit margins. [DFL nominees have won the 4th CD by an average of 30.2 points since 1980 and the 5th CD by an average of 43.2 points].

Of the nine states with active streaks that date back prior to the 21st Century, only Minnesota has sent delegations to the U.S. House with more than three seats. [The other eight states are Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, and Wyoming].

This cycle Minnesota passed New Hampshire, who has served up Democratic and Republican nominees for 189 consecutive U.S. House races dating back to a record-setting 170 years in 1856. The 1856 cycle was the first in which Republicans ran nominees in Granite State U.S. House contests.

Rounding out the Top 10 largest streaks are Idaho (121 elections in a row), Montana (111), Ohio (97), Maine (94), Maryland (82), Delaware (71), Wyoming (71), Missouri (65), and Iowa (62).

Democrats have maintained a presence on the ballot through more than 120 years in Idaho even though its voters have preferred Republican nominees for the office in nearly 80 percent of U.S. House contests since the streak began in 1902. The last time a Democrat or Republican failed to appear on the Idaho ballot was in 1900 when Populist Thomas Glenn won the state’s at-large seat against Republican John Morrison.

Montana, the fourth state with a streak of 100+ contests, has recorded 128 years since a major party failed to field a candidate in the state, when Republican and Silver Republican candidates squared off in the 1896 race for its at-large seat.

After New Hampshire (1856) the longest streaks in the nation are held by Delaware (1888), Wyoming (1890), Montana (1898), Idaho (1902), Maine (1944), Alaska (1958), Minnesota (1980), and Hawaii (1990).

Wyoming and Alaska are the only two states that have fielded Democratic and Republican nominees in every U.S. House race since statehood. [New Hampshire’s statehood preceded the formation of the GOP by several decades].

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The End of the Gubernatorial Naysayer?

2026-10-22T18:52:12Z

Only four states have elected governors from the opposing party of the sitting president over the last two cycles

Heading into the November elections, Democrats are looking to flip several GOP-held governorships to take control of a majority of these state executive offices nationwide for the first time since heading into the 2010 cycle.

Democrats, who govern 24 states, are eying several opportunities (e.g. Iowa, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Alaska) with an expected national tailwind buoyed by President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings.

Republicans, meanwhile, see Kansas, Arizona, and Wisconsin as their best chances to flip seats in their own right.

The notion that the sitting president’s party might yield some seats to the opposition during midterm cycles is not a novelty.

But with states increasingly demonstrating monolithic partisan tendencies (as established on this site across multiple reports), it has become less common for states to be reliable ‘naysayers’ – voting against the party of the sitting president no matter which is in office.

Through the 2025 election cycle, there are currently only four states whose gubernatorial vote preference was not that of the sitting president’s party in two or more consecutive cycles.

Nevada leads the way at four straight cycles: backing Republican Brian Sandoval under Barack Obama (2010, 2014), Democrat Steve Sisolak under Trump (2018), and Republican Joe Lombardo under Joe Biden (2022).

Virginia is next with three – voting for Democrat Ralph Northam in 2017, Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2021, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger in 2025.

That leaves just Louisiana (Democrat John Bel Edwards in 2019; Republican Jeff Landry in 2023) and New Hampshire (Republicans Chris Sununu in 2022 and Kelly Ayotte in 2024) at two each.

This is in stark contrast to the much larger number of states that tallied gubernatorial naysayer streaks of six or more consecutive cycles well into the 2010s:

Wyoming (nine): 1982-2014
Tennessee (eight): 1986-2014
New Jersey (eight): 1989-2017
Kansas (eight): 1990-2018
New Mexico (eight): 1990-2018
Wisconsin (eight): 1994-2018
Oklahoma (seven): 1990-2014
Maine (seven): 1994-2018
Michigan (seven): 1994-2018
Arizona (six): 1994-2014

Virginia also had a naysayer streak of nine straight elections (1977 to 2009) to bring their current tally to 12 of the last 13 cycles.

Only three states have voted into office a gubernatorial nominee from the same party of the sitting president during each of the last two elections: Arizona (Republican Doug Ducey in 2018 and Democrat Katie Hobbs in 2022), Maryland (Republican Larry Hogan in 2018 and Democrat Wes Moore in 2022), and Massachusetts (Republican Charlie Baker in 2018 and Democrat Maura Healey in 2022).

Vermont owns the longest such streak in recent years, backing the gubernatorial nominee of the president’s party in 11 consecutive cycles from 1994 through 2014.

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New Hampshire Gubernatorial and US Senate Primaries By the Numbers

2026-10-14T21:28:34Z

Kelly Ayotte makes history once again in the Granite State

On Tuesday, New Hampshire became the 48th state to hold its primary this cycle, and while there were no surprises near the top of the ticket there were a few notable performances.

In the Republican primary for governor, incumbent Kelly Ayotte received 91.7 percent of the vote with just a few thousand votes left to tabulate.

That marks the largest support ever received by a GOP gubernatorial candidate in a contested primary.

Across the 57 primaries for the office conducted since 1914, only four Republicans were nominated without opposition: State Representative John Bartlett in 1918, State Representative Jim Coburn in 2006, State Senator Joseph Kenney in 2008, and Governor Chris Sununu in 2018.

Ayotte – who faced two little-known opponents in her renomination bid this year who had also each won less than a percentage point in the 2024 GOP primary for governor – bested the previous mark of 89.6 percent won by State Senator Lane Dwinell in 1954 as well as the aforementioned Governor Sununu in 2020.

In 2004, Ayotte became the first woman to serve as New Hampshire Attorney General, and is also the only Republican woman to serve New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate, win a gubernatorial nomination, and serve as governor.

Ayotte will face Democratic attorney and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington in November.

Warmington is the sixth woman to win a Democratic nomination for governor in New Hampshire following State Representative Deborah Arnesen (1992), State Senator Jeanne Shaheen (1996, 1998, 2000), former State Senator Maggie Hassan (2012, 2014), former State Senator Molly Kelly (2018), and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (2024).

The Republican race for the U.S. Senate nomination between former U.S. Senators John Sununu and Scott Brown (formerly of Massachusetts) never materialized into a bona fide battle.

Sununu won 68.4 percent of the vote in an eight-candidate field – more than 40 points ahead of Brown.

Only one non-incumbent Republican U.S. Senate nominee has received more support in the state: U.S. Representative Louis Wyman’s 83.0 percent in 1974 in a two-candidate race against political newcomer Leslie Babb.

The only other non-incumbents to eclipse the 60 percent mark were U.S. Representative and former Governor Charles Tobey in 1938 (60.9 percent) and U.S. Representative Bob Smith in 1990 (65.0 percent).

On the Democratic side, although U.S. Representative Chris Pappas ultimately did not face a scare on Election Day from medical scientist and Democratic Socialist Karishma Manzur, his 32.1-point victory was the closest U.S. Senate nomination battle for the party since 1996 when former U.S. Representative Dick Swett eked out a 4.9-point victory against Sunapee businessman John Rauh.

The Sununu vs. Pappas matchup for Shaheen’s open seat is expected to be one of the few pick-up opportunities for the GOP across the nation this cycle.

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