Smart Politics

Will Libertarians Leave a Footprint in 2026’s Gubernatorial Elections?

2026-10-14T21:27:47Z

The nation’s third largest party suffers a large setback in candidates for governor this cycle

After experiencing a record boom in candidates for governor four years ago, the Libertarian Party will field its lowest number of nominees for the office in 40 years next month.

Libertarians appeared on the ballot for governor in 26 states in 2022, with seven nominees winning at least two percent of the vote.

This cycle, voters in just eight states will be able to support Libertarian candidates in November – a low water mark last seen in 1986. The eight states are Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. [Note: Georgia Libertarian nominee (and 2024 presidential nominee) Chase Oliver withdrew from the governor’s race in May; California Libertarian Tom Woodard withdrew during that state’s jungle primary, but still appeared on the ballot].

Each of these states with the exception of Ohio also fielded nominees in 2022, along with 19 others that failed to land candidates on the ballot this cycle.

The Libertarian Party first nominated a candidate for governor in 1973 – John Goodson of New Jersey who notched 0.1 percent of the general election vote.

The party nominated gubernatorial candidates in seven states in 1978 and then broke through in 19 states during the 1982 midterms.

That number dropped to just eight states in 1986 but then increased steadily to 10 states in 1990, 15 in 1994, 19 in 1998, and 25 in 2002.

After dropping to 15 states during the 2006 midterms, the party rebounded again with nominees in 19 states in 2010, 22 in 2014, 23 in 2018, and then 26 in 2022.

The number of Libertarian candidates for governor – as well as support at the ballot box – has generally grown each decade:

1970s: 14 candidates, averaging 0.50 percent of the vote
1980s: 42 candidates (1.20 percent)
1990s: 55 candidates (1.80 percent)
2000s: 67 candidates (1.40 percent)
2010s: 88 candidates (2.00 percent)
2020s: 50 candidates (2.13 percent, through 2025)

How are Libertarians slated to fare across these eight states in November?

Support for Libertarian (and independent and other third party candidates) is often difficult to predict, as purported backing of such candidates tends to wane from pre-election polling to Election Day.

That said, some 2026 candidates have received notable support in recent polling such as Cecil farmer Colt Shelby in Arkansas, Ohio television station operator Don Kissick, and former Texas Libertarian Party chair and Lago Vista City Councilor Pat Dixon.

Substantial vote totals for Libertarians in Ohio and Texas could be determinative as those two states are expected to have competitive elections. [No other independent or third party options will be on the ballot in these states].

The high water mark for the party in an Ohio gubernatorial race is 2.4 percent by Ken Matesz in 2010 while Texas Libertarians are looking to eclipse the 3.3 percent received by Jeff Daiell back in 1990.

The other Libertarian nominees on the ballot for governor this cycle are U.S. Army veteran Eric Mulder in Colorado, Boca Raton businessman Scott Jewett in Florida, retired computer software engineer Paul Sand in Idaho, truck driver Anthony Hudson in Michigan, and Abington information technology firm owner Ken Krawchuk in Pennsylvania.

For perspective, only five of the 309 Libertarian gubernatorial candidates in party history have received at least five percent of the vote:

Alaska (1982): State Representative Dick Randolph (14.91 percent)
Indiana (2020): Donald Rainwater (11.44 percent)
Wisconsin (2002): Tomah Mayor Ed Thompson (10.45 percent)
Virginia (2013): Former lawyer and software engineer Robert Sarvis (6.52 percent)
Arizona (1982): Former five-term GOP U.S. Representative Sam Steiger (5.05 percent)

A total of 88 of the 309 Libertarian nominees for the office have won at least 2.0 percent of the vote, or 28.5 percent. Fifty-three of those have done so since the 2010 cycle.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post Will Libertarians Leave a Footprint in 2026’s Gubernatorial Elections? appeared first on Smart Politics.

A Brief History of Minnesota Partisan Statewide Elections

2026-10-12T18:57:39Z

Democrats may see their party’s fifth largest winning streak end in the Gopher State this November

Despite bleak forecasts for Republican candidates in purple and even some red states across much of the nation this cycle, the Minnesota GOP is bullish that they can be an outlier and make inroads in their state, just as they did during Trump’s first midterm in 2018.

Eight years ago, Democrats netted more than 40 U.S. House seats and took back control of the chamber while Republicans only flipped two seats in the country – both in Minnesota (the 1st and 8th CDs in the southern and northern parts of the state respectively).

Republicans may have fielded their strongest statewide ticket since the 2006 cycle, when Tim Pawlenty became the last GOPer to win a statewide race in Minnesota.

The DFL has won each of the last 28 statewide elections – the fifth largest active Democratic winning streak in the nation behind California (41), New Mexico (31), Connecticut (31), and New York (30).

That statistic, however, belies how close Minnesota Republicans have come to winning many high profile contests in the state during this twenty-year period.

Seventeen of these 28 consecutive GOP losses have been single-digit affairs with seven nail-biters decided by less than two percentage points: 2008 U.S. Senate (0.01 points), 2010 Governor (0.42), 2010 Auditor (1.26), 2014 Secretary of State (1.17), 2016 President (1.51), 2022 Auditor (0.34), and 2022 Attorney General (0.84).

Polling thus far suggests Minnesota GOP statewide candidates across the board have found some cover from the Trump drag experienced by their fellow candidates across much of the country – in part by going on offense on the state’s recent high profile fraud scandals that have occurred under years of DFL governance. [With coverage of the fraud coinciding with Governor Tim Walz abandoning his bid for a third term several months into his campaign].

Republicans have – if not become favored – at least moved into toss-up status for the constitutional offices of Auditor (an open seat race) and Attorney General (against incumbent Keith Ellison) and perhaps even the state’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Republican nominees for governor (State Representative Lisa Demuth) and Secretary of State (former DFL lawmaker Tad Jude) have also seemingly closed their respective spreads from double-digit deficits to the mid-single digits.

Given the Minnesota GOP’s inability to close the deal in high profile races over the last two decades, a victory for any of these five offices during a midterm with an unpopular Republican president would be a notable achievement.

And while the DFL has swept all statewide races in Minnesota for each of the last nine cycles dating back to 2008, it has been an especially long drought since Republicans ran the table.

Republicans have swept statewide elections in 38 cycles dating back to statehood in 1858, but it has been more than 75 years since the party last accomplished this feat.

During President Harry Truman’s second midterm in 1950, the Minnesota GOP won all nine statewide elections:

Governor: incumbent Luther Youngdahl to a third term
Lieutenant Governor: incumbent C. Elmer Anderson to a sixth nonconsecutive term
Secretary of State: incumbent Mike Holm to a 16th term
Attorney General: incumbent J.A.A. Burnquist to a seventh term
Auditor: incumbent Stafford King to a sixth term
Treasurer: newspaper editor Val Bjornson to an open seat
Supreme Court Clerk: incumbent Grace Kaercher to a seventh nonconsecutive term
Two contests for the Railroad and Warehouse Commission: appointed incumbent Leonard Lindquist in special and general elections

Republicans almost ran the table again in 1952 – winning nine races, but losing one of three seats on the ballot for the Railroad and Warehouse Commission.

Since 1954, the DFL has dominated at the ballot box in statewide elections: winning 110 of 144 contests (71.4 percent) compared to just 43 for the Republicans (and one for the Reform Party – Jesse Ventura for Governor in 1998).

With a few exceptions, Republicans controlled Minnesota politics for most of the 19th and early 20th Centuries.

Republicans won every statewide race for 23 of 24 cycles from 1859 through 1888 – losing only the office of Treasurer to incumbent Edwin Dike in 1873. [Dike was appointed as a Republican to the office but did not receive the GOP nomination later that year. He instead accepted the nomination to run on the Democratic-Anti-Monopolist ticket].

Republicans also swept the cycles of 1894, 1896, 1900, 1902, 1910, 1912, 1916, 1918, 1920, 1924, 1926, 1938, 1942, 1946, and 1950.

From 1859 through 1952, Republicans won 355 of 398 statewide races in Minnesota (89.2 percent) compared to 25 for the Farmer-Laborites and just 18 for the Democrats.

Aside from their nine-cycle run from 2008 through 2024, the DFL only carried every statewide office on the ballot during the election cycles of 1972 and 1974 (plus 1980, 1992, and 2004 when the only partisan statewide race in the state was for the presidency).

Prior to the merger, the only cycle in which the Democratic Party carried all statewide offices on the ballot was in late 1857 in advance of statehood when Democrats won six constitutional offices (governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general, treasurer) plus the office of Supreme Court clerk and two at-large U.S. House seats. The Farmer-Laborites never achieved this feat.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post A Brief History of Minnesota Partisan Statewide Elections appeared first on Smart Politics.

Midwestern Democrats Eye Rare Gubernatorial Feat in 2026

2026-09-30T02:53:00Z

A group of six states in the region could elect Democratic governors in the same cycle for the first time in history

While Democrats remain cautiously bullish about their midterm electoral prospects up and down the ballot across the Midwest, the party may still not emerge with a majority of governorships in the 12-state region.

It has been nearly a generation since the last time Democrats controlled at least seven Midwestern governorships – where they currently hold the office in five states (Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).

Democrats last held seven seats heading into the 2010 midterms where they promptly ceded five to the GOP (Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) and flipped one (Minnesota).

This year, the party is optimistic about its chances to carry Iowa and Ohio – each for the first time in 20 years – but Democrats would still need to hold the aforementioned five states to win a majority of governorships provided they did not record any other pick-ups.

Most prognosticators suggest Illinois seems assured to stay blue, with Minnesota probable, Michigan and Wisconsin more likely than not, but Kansas more likely to flip back to the GOP. [South Dakota and Nebraska also hold gubernatorial elections during midterm cycles].

That said, Democrats have an opportunity this November to achieve a feat never before realized in the Midwest region: winning the governorships of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin all in the same cycle.

Since Iowa moved back to even-year elections in 1906, these six Midwestern states have simultaneously had gubernatorial contests on the ballot in 25 cycles: 13 cycles from 1908 through 1956 and 12 cycles from 1978 through 2022. [Ohio switched from two to four-year terms in 1958 and held its elections for governor exclusively in midterms while Illinois continued its tradition since 1848 of holding its contests in presidential election years until the late 1970s].

By contrast, Republicans have swept all six states five times: in 1920, 1928, 1978, 1990, and 1994.

During this period, Democrats have carried five of these six states just twice: in 1932 Minnesota reelected Farmer-Laborite Floyd Olson (with Democratic nominee and State Representative John Regan placing a distant third) and in 2006 Minnesota reelected Republican Tim Pawlenty (with DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch losing by less than a percentage point).

Republicans have carried five of these six states in five cycles: 1916 (all but Ohio), 1924 (Ohio), 1940 (Michigan), 1944 (Ohio), and 2014 (Minnesota).

Looking at smaller samples of these states, Democrats could also:

Carry Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio for just the second time since the late 19th Century, and the first time since 1958
Carry Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota for the third time ever and first time since 1958 (also 1956)

Iowa and Minnesota have not elected a governor from the same political party for the last seven cycles (the longest period in history), last doing so in 1994.

Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin have elected nominees from the same party for each of the last nine cycles since 1990.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post Midwestern Democrats Eye Rare Gubernatorial Feat in 2026 appeared first on Smart Politics.

The Largest State Streaks Fielding Candidates from Both Major Parties in US House Races

2026-09-25T03:09:17Z

Minnesota overtakes New Hampshire this cycle for the largest streak in the nation, closing in at nearly 200 straight elections with a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot

The last state primaries were completed earlier this month and now the ballots are set for the nation’s 435 U.S. House elections to be conducted on November 3rd.

Forty-three states saw both Republican and Democratic candidates land on the general election ballot in every U.S. House district. [Or, in the case of Louisiana and Washington, at least on every district’s jungle primary ballot].

For some of these states this is hardly a novelty – with voters in four states getting a choice of both major political parties in every U.S. House race dating back to the 19th Century.

But for most states getting the choice of both parties cannot be taken for granted: 41 states have lacked at least one Republican or Democratic candidate in a U.S. House election since the 2000 cycle.

The nation now has a new leader by this measure in the State of Minnesota. Minnesota’s DFL and Republican parties have nominated candidates to its eight seats in every election cycle since 1980 (plus one special in 2022), for a total of 193 consecutive elections to the office. That is a streak of 24 straight election cycles.

The last candidate to run without major party opposition in Minnesota was DFLer Jim Oberstar in 1978 when he was challenged only by an American Party nominee to record his third of 18 victories from the state’s 8th CD in the Iron Range.

Minnesota’s streak is particularly notable due to its moderately large population (owning eight congressional districts since 1962). More districts means there are more opportunities for gerrymandering and extremely partisan districts where it is more difficult for the party out of power to recruit candidates.

However, even in DFL-heavy districts like the 4th CD (St. Paul) and 5th CD (Minneapolis), the Minnesota GOP has nonetheless continued to serve up nominees cycle after cycle – despite regularly losing those districts by large double-digit margins. [DFL nominees have won the 4th CD by an average of 30.2 points since 1980 and the 5th CD by an average of 43.2 points].

Of the nine states with active streaks that date back prior to the 21st Century, only Minnesota has sent delegations to the U.S. House with more than three seats. [The other eight states are Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, and Wyoming].

This cycle Minnesota passed New Hampshire, who has served up Democratic and Republican nominees for 189 consecutive U.S. House races dating back to a record-setting 170 years in 1856. The 1856 cycle was the first in which Republicans ran nominees in Granite State U.S. House contests.

Rounding out the Top 10 largest streaks are Idaho (121 elections in a row), Montana (111), Ohio (97), Maine (94), Maryland (82), Delaware (71), Wyoming (71), Missouri (65), and Iowa (62).

Democrats have maintained a presence on the ballot through more than 120 years in Idaho even though its voters have preferred Republican nominees for the office in nearly 80 percent of U.S. House contests since the streak began in 1902. The last time a Democrat or Republican failed to appear on the Idaho ballot was in 1900 when Populist Thomas Glenn won the state’s at-large seat against Republican John Morrison.

Montana, the fourth state with a streak of 100+ contests, has recorded 128 years since a major party failed to field a candidate in the state, when Republican and Silver Republican candidates squared off in the 1896 race for its at-large seat.

After New Hampshire (1856) the longest streaks in the nation are held by Delaware (1888), Wyoming (1890), Montana (1898), Idaho (1902), Maine (1944), Alaska (1958), Minnesota (1980), and Hawaii (1990).

Wyoming and Alaska are the only two states that have fielded Democratic and Republican nominees in every U.S. House race since statehood. [New Hampshire’s statehood preceded the formation of the GOP by several decades].

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post The Largest State Streaks Fielding Candidates from Both Major Parties in US House Races appeared first on Smart Politics.

The End of the Gubernatorial Naysayer?

2026-09-16T02:35:05Z

Only four states have elected governors from the opposing party of the sitting president over the last two cycles

Heading into the November elections, Democrats are looking to flip several GOP-held governorships to take control of a majority of these state executive offices nationwide for the first time since heading into the 2010 cycle.

Democrats, who govern 24 states, are eying several opportunities (e.g. Iowa, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Alaska) with an expected national tailwind buoyed by President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings.

Republicans, meanwhile, see Kansas, Arizona, and Wisconsin as their best chances to flip seats in their own right.

The notion that the sitting president’s party might yield some seats to the opposition during midterm cycles is not a novelty.

But with states increasingly demonstrating monolithic partisan tendencies (as established on this site across multiple reports), it has become less common for states to be reliable ‘naysayers’ – voting against the party of the sitting president no matter which is in office.

Through the 2025 election cycle, there are currently only four states whose gubernatorial vote preference was not that of the sitting president’s party in two or more consecutive cycles.

Nevada leads the way at four straight cycles: backing Republican Brian Sandoval under Barack Obama (2010, 2014), Democrat Steve Sisolak under Trump (2018), and Republican Joe Lombardo under Joe Biden (2022).

Virginia is next with three – voting for Democrat Ralph Northam in 2017, Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2021, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger in 2025.

That leaves just Louisiana (Democrat John Bel Edwards in 2019; Republican Jeff Landry in 2023) and New Hampshire (Republicans Chris Sununu in 2022 and Kelly Ayotte in 2024) at two each.

This is in stark contrast to the much larger number of states that tallied gubernatorial naysayer streaks of six or more consecutive cycles well into the 2010s:

Wyoming (nine): 1982-2014
Tennessee (eight): 1986-2014
New Jersey (eight): 1989-2017
Kansas (eight): 1990-2018
New Mexico (eight): 1990-2018
Wisconsin (eight): 1994-2018
Oklahoma (seven): 1990-2014
Maine (seven): 1994-2018
Michigan (seven): 1994-2018
Arizona (six): 1994-2014

Virginia also had a naysayer streak of nine straight elections (1977 to 2009) to bring their current tally to 12 of the last 13 cycles.

Only three states have voted into office a gubernatorial nominee from the same party of the sitting president during each of the last two elections: Arizona (Republican Doug Ducey in 2018 and Democrat Katie Hobbs in 2022), Maryland (Republican Larry Hogan in 2018 and Democrat Wes Moore in 2022), and Massachusetts (Republican Charlie Baker in 2018 and Democrat Maura Healey in 2022).

Vermont owns the longest such streak in recent years, backing the gubernatorial nominee of the president’s party in 11 consecutive cycles from 1994 through 2014.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post The End of the Gubernatorial Naysayer? appeared first on Smart Politics.

New Hampshire Gubernatorial and US Senate Primaries By the Numbers

2026-10-14T21:28:34Z

Kelly Ayotte makes history once again in the Granite State

On Tuesday, New Hampshire became the 48th state to hold its primary this cycle, and while there were no surprises near the top of the ticket there were a few notable performances.

In the Republican primary for governor, incumbent Kelly Ayotte received 91.7 percent of the vote with just a few thousand votes left to tabulate.

That marks the largest support ever received by a GOP gubernatorial candidate in a contested primary.

Across the 57 primaries for the office conducted since 1914, only four Republicans were nominated without opposition: State Representative John Bartlett in 1918, State Representative Jim Coburn in 2006, State Senator Joseph Kenney in 2008, and Governor Chris Sununu in 2018.

Ayotte – who faced two little-known opponents in her renomination bid this year who had also each won less than a percentage point in the 2024 GOP primary for governor – bested the previous mark of 89.6 percent won by State Senator Lane Dwinell in 1954 as well as the aforementioned Governor Sununu in 2020.

In 2004, Ayotte became the first woman to serve as New Hampshire Attorney General, and is also the only Republican woman to serve New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate, win a gubernatorial nomination, and serve as governor.

Ayotte will face Democratic attorney and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington in November.

Warmington is the sixth woman to win a Democratic nomination for governor in New Hampshire following State Representative Deborah Arnesen (1992), State Senator Jeanne Shaheen (1996, 1998, 2000), former State Senator Maggie Hassan (2012, 2014), former State Senator Molly Kelly (2018), and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (2024).

The Republican race for the U.S. Senate nomination between former U.S. Senators John Sununu and Scott Brown (formerly of Massachusetts) never materialized into a bona fide battle.

Sununu won 68.4 percent of the vote in an eight-candidate field – more than 40 points ahead of Brown.

Only one non-incumbent Republican U.S. Senate nominee has received more support in the state: U.S. Representative Louis Wyman’s 83.0 percent in 1974 in a two-candidate race against political newcomer Leslie Babb.

The only other non-incumbents to eclipse the 60 percent mark were U.S. Representative and former Governor Charles Tobey in 1938 (60.9 percent) and U.S. Representative Bob Smith in 1990 (65.0 percent).

On the Democratic side, although U.S. Representative Chris Pappas ultimately did not face a scare on Election Day from medical scientist and Democratic Socialist Karishma Manzur, his 32.1-point victory was the closest U.S. Senate nomination battle for the party since 1996 when former U.S. Representative Dick Swett eked out a 4.9-point victory against Sunapee businessman John Rauh.

The Sununu vs. Pappas matchup for Shaheen’s open seat is expected to be one of the few pick-up opportunities for the GOP across the nation this cycle.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post New Hampshire Gubernatorial and US Senate Primaries By the Numbers appeared first on Smart Politics.

Nine States in the Midst of Record Partisan US House Winning Streaks

2026-10-08T17:51:23Z

Republicans in six states and Democrats in three states seek to pad their records in 2026

While the fight for control of the U.S. Senate seems to dominate the electoral headlines, it remains to be seen whether voters in several states continue to rubber stamp one political party in elections down the ballot to the nation’s lower legislative chamber.

Heading into November, the Republican Party is currently enjoying record partisan winning streaks to the U.S. House in six states, while Democrats are looking to expand their records in three others.

Democratic Streaks

In Massachusetts, there is no sign in any district that Democrats are at risk of seeing their 146 consecutive U.S. House winning streak end this cycle.

Incredibly, Democrats have won each of the last 45 elections in the state by double-digits with the last single-digit race coming in the 9th CD in 2014 when Chatham’s John Chapman fell 9.96 points shy of unseating Bill Keating. Republicans have come within 10 points of winning a Massachusetts U.S. House election in just seven of these 146 losses.

Massachusetts Democrats also have recorded the eighth most consecutive Democratic U.S. House victories in history and the most outside of the South, where there was effective one-party Democratic rule in many states for nearly three-quarters of a century.

The last time Massachusetts Republicans picked up a U.S. House seat was 34 years ago in 1992 when nine-term incumbent Joseph Early was defeated in the 3rd CD by GOPer Peter Blute and seven-term Congressman Nicholas Mavroules lost in the 6th CD to Republican Peter Torkildsen. These two GOP incumbents held their seats during the 1994 Republican Revolution.

Since then, Democrats have recorded 146 consecutive victories in general and special elections conducted from 1996 through the 2024 cycle.

Assuming the Bay State does not lose any seats from reapportionment after the 2030 U.S. Census, Massachusetts Democrats could overtake Texas (198 in a row, 1931-1946) for the seventh longest Democratic winning streak to the chamber in the 2036 cycle.

Neighboring Connecticut is next, where Democrats have won 45 straight U.S. House elections since 2008.

Republicans have come within single digits of winning a U.S. House seat in just eight of these 45 races, including a 6.8-point loss by former State Senator George Logan in a rematch against Rep. Jahana Hayes in the 5th CD in 2024.

Hayes and 2nd CD incumbent Joe Courtney represent districts with fairly modest +3 and +4 PVI advantages for Democrats respectively, but national tailwinds should elevate this streak to 50 straight contests this cycle.

Lastly, Democrats in the once reliably Republican state of Vermont boast a party-record 10 election winning streak for the state’s at-large U.S. House seat since 2006 when independent Bernie Sanders opted to run for the U.S. Senate.

Two-term incumbent Becca Balint will likely cruise to a double-digit win, with voters also probably splitting their ticket by double digits in favor of the extremely popular Republican Governor Phil Scott.

Other states with notable (but not historic) active Democratic winning streaks are:

Rhode Island: 32 in a row since 1994
Hawaii: 17 in a row since 2010
New Hampshire: 10 in a row since 2016
Maine: Eight in a row since 2018
Delaware: Eight in a row since 2010

Republican Streaks

While all active all-time party record Democratic U.S. House winning streaks are located in Northeastern states, those on the Republican side are in states located in the South and the West.

Arkansas leads the way with the GOP claiming 28 victories in a row – sweeping all four seats in each of the last seven election cycles since 2012.

The only conceivable crack in the Republican wall in November would be in the state’s +8 GOP 2nd CD where six-term Rep. French Hill will face scientist and pastor Chris Jones. Hill won the central-Arkansas based district by nearly 18 points in 2024.

Just behind is Wyoming where the GOP has won each general and special election to its at-large seat since 1978 – a total of 25 in a row.

Less secure is the Republican winning streak just north of the border in Montana. Republicans have notched 18 consecutive victories since 1996 but Democrats have an opportunity to end it in the state’s 1st (western) CD with its fairly modest +5 GOP PVI.

Democratic primary voters choosing a more progressive candidate (Sam Forstag) over a moderate (Ryan Busse) may or may not be determinative with a Libertarian nominee (Nick Sheedy) also on the ballot as a second option for the district’s conservatives.

Republicans are also in the middle of all-time U.S. House winning streaks in West Virginia (16 in a row since 2014), Oklahoma (15, 2020; tied with 2012-2016), and Utah (13, 2020; tied with 1920-1930).

The GOP’s recent unblemished winning ways will end in Utah’s soon to be decidedly Democratic 1st CD after judicially-imposed redistricting stemming from a civil lawsuit.

Republicans also have double-digit, non-record winning streaks in Nebraska (16 straight since 2016) and Idaho (14 since 2010).

The Top 5 longest Republican winning streaks are Iowa (80 in a row, 1916-1928), Vermont (69, 1880-1956), Massachusetts (66, 1862-1872), Maine (63, 1881-1908), and Michigan (54, 1923-1930).

The Top 5 on the Democratic side are Georgia (410, 1892-1962), Alabama (313, 1900-1962), Mississippi (294, 1884-1962), Arkansas (258, 1890-1956), and South Carolina (245, 1896-1964).

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post Nine States in the Midst of Record Partisan US House Winning Streaks appeared first on Smart Politics.

18 States Are in the Midst of Record Gubernatorial Partisan Winning Streaks

2026-09-30T02:52:24Z

Parties in seven additional states can tie their best mark for consecutive wins this November

Gubernatorial elections will take place in 36 states this cycle and Democrats and Republicans in more than half of them can extend or tie all-time party record winning streaks for the office.

Overall, 18 states are in the midst of record partisan winning streaks in elections for governor:

13 on the Republican side: Utah (12), Idaho (8), Texas (8), Florida (7), Alabama (6), Georgia (6), Indiana (6), Mississippi (6), South Carolina (6), Oklahoma (4), Tennessee (4), Arkansas (3), and Missouri (3, tied with 1920 to 1928 and 1980 to 1988)
Five for the Democrats: Oregon (11), Washington (11), Delaware (9), California (4), and Minnesota (4)

Twelve of these states host elections for the office in 2026 with less than a handful expected to host competitive races that might see those streaks come to an end (e.g. Georgia, Oregon, Texas).

Parties in an additional seven states are on the cusp of tying all-time marks this November:

South Dakota Republicans (12 in a row, 1978-present): Poised to tie the GOP mark of 13 set from 1900 to 1924
Colorado Democrats (five, 2006-present): Aiming to equal the party record of six straight set twice previously – 1926 to 1936 and 1974 to 1994
Connecticut Democrats (four, 2010-present): Looking to tie a mark set 150 years ago when Democrats won five consecutive one-year terms from 1873 to 1876 (with two elections taking place in 1876)
Wyoming Republicans (four, 2010-present): Winning by an average of 43.2 points during their current streak, the Cowboy State GOP is in great shape to tie the party record of five straight wins set from 1894 to 1906
Pennsylvania Democrats (three, 2014-present): Popular Governor Josh Shapiro looks to tie the Democratic record of four straight wins set from 1838 to 1847
Alaska Republicans (two, 2018-present): The GOP also won three in a row from 2002 to 2010
Wisconsin Democrats (two, 2018-present): The party only won back-to-back-to-back contests once, from 1958 to 1962

No current Democratic or Republican streak is anywhere close to touching the longest gubernatorial winnings streaks in party history.

On the Democratic side, a win by Governor Tina Kotek would break a tie with Washington to place Oregon all alone in 14th place for states with the longest Democratic streaks. Southern states almost completely populate that leader board: Texas (51 in a row), Georgia (50), Arkansas (47), South Carolina (37), Alabama (35), Mississippi (28), Louisiana (21), Virginia (21), Tennessee (20), North Carolina (18), New Hampshire (14), Oklahoma (14), and Florida (13).

On the Republican side, a win by Governor Larry Rhoden in South Dakota would equal the state’s record of 13 in a row as mentioned above – which is good for the 10th largest state GOP winning streak for the office nationwide.

Northeastern and Midwestern states – Vermont (62 in a row), Rhode Island (24), Maine (22), New Hampshire (21), Iowa (19), Minnesota (19), Wisconsin (19), Massachusetts (18), and Michigan (14) – fill up the #1 through #9 slots. [Republicans also had separate winnings streaks of 14 in a row in Maine, 19 and 14 in a row in New Hampshire, and 16 in a row in Iowa].

Look for additional Smart Politics reports on current partisan electoral streaks to be published before the midterms.

Follow Smart Politics on X(opens in new tab).

The post 18 States Are in the Midst of Record Gubernatorial Partisan Winning Streaks appeared first on Smart Politics.

A Short Dive into Minnesota’s US Senate Primary

2026-09-25T03:09:48Z

A state record 15 candidates competed in the U.S. Senate primaries last week

Former sports broadcaster and political commentator Michele Tafoya (pictured) and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are Minnesota’s newly minted Republican and DFL U.S. Senate nominees respectively for a November race the GOP expects to be competitive and the DFL hopes will result in an all-time party record.

The retirement of DFL U.S. Senator Tina Smith brought out candidates in droves for this open seat race – with a state record 15 major party hopefuls on the ballot for the office in last week’s Democratic and Republican primaries.

Tafoya received 52.1 percent in a party-record tying nine-candidate GOP field – matching the nine Republicans who ran in 1923’s special election(opens in new tab) won by Governor J.A.O. Preus to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Republican U.S. Senator Knute Nelson.

Add in the six DFLers on the ballot last Tuesday and the 15 candidates eclipsed the state record last cycle when 13 hopefuls (eight Republicans and five Democrats) ran in 2024. [Including Farmer-Laborites, 14 candidates ran in U.S. Senate primaries in 1923’s special and in 1940].

In the DFL primary, Lieutenant Governor Flanagan received 59.0 percent – 19.6 points ahead of Rep. Angie Craig. Despite losing by nearly 20 points, Craig’s 39.4 percent ranks as the fourth largest percentage of the vote received by a runner-up in a Republican or DFL (or Democratic) U.S. Senate primary out of the 75 contested primaries held for the office since 1912.

Craig trails only:

1912 Republican primary(opens in new tab): Former Hennepin County Attorney and State Representative James Peterson(opens in new tab) received 41.9 percent in a two-candidate race
1934 Republican primary(opens in new tab): Former Marshall Mayor and State Representative Tom Davis(opens in new tab) won 45.3 percent in a two-candidate race
1978 DFL special primary(opens in new tab): U.S. Representative Don Fraser(opens in new tab) received 47.4 percent in a four-candidate field

Tafoya is just the second woman to win a Republican U.S. Senate nomination in Minnesota, following Karin Housley(opens in new tab) in 2018’s special primary election(opens in new tab).

With Flanagan’s victory, the DFL extended its party record fifth consecutive nomination to a woman following Tina Smith (2018 special), Amy Klobuchar (2018), Smith (2020), and Klobuchar (2024).

Democrats also nominated Anna Olesen(opens in new tab) in 1922(opens in new tab), Joan Anderson Growe in 1984(opens in new tab), Ann Wynia(opens in new tab) in 1994(opens in new tab), and Klobuchar in 2006(opens in new tab) and 2012(opens in new tab).

The DFL has won eight consecutive U.S. Senate elections in Minnesota – tied with a streak notched from 1954 through 1976 behind Hubert Humphrey (1954, 1960, 1970, 1976), Eugene McCarthy (1958, 1964), and Walter Mondale (1966, 1972).

It is the ninth largest active Democratic winning streak for the office behind Hawaii (20), New Jersey (18), California (15), Maryland (15), New York (12), Delaware (11), Michigan (10), and Washington (10).

Follow Smart Politics on X(opens in new tab).

The post A Short Dive into Minnesota’s US Senate Primary appeared first on Smart Politics.

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary by the Numbers

2026-09-16T02:36:27Z

Crowley’s narrow win was the third closest primary out of 96 major party contests for the office since 1912

It was a late night in Wisconsin before its competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary race was called with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (pictured) edging out State Assemblywoman Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point.

With just an estimated few thousand votes left to count, Crowley holds a 0.48-point advantage over Hong – good for the third most narrowly decided primary for governor out of eight-dozen held over the last 110+ years.

Since the first contest in 1912, there have been 96 gubernatorial primaries for the Democratic, Republican, and Progressive (1934-1944) parties.

Crowley’s win was the closest in 86 years, when former Kaukauna Mayor and dentist William Sullivan defeated state Democratic Chairman Gustav Keller of Appleton by 0.32 points with just 24.3 percent in the six-candidate 1942 field.

The biggest nail-biter in Wisconsin gubernatorial primary history came on the Republican side in 1918. Two-term Governor Emanuel Philipp edged State Senator Roy Wilcox of Eau Claire by 0.23 points with 38.1 percent of the primary vote.

From 1912 through 2026 a total of 16 of 96 primaries for governor have been decided by single digits.

Seven on the Democratic side:

1914 (7.0 points): Milwaukee County Judge John Karel (53.5 percent) over U.S. District Attorney John Aylward of Madison (46.5 percent)
1922 (9.2 points): La Crosse Mayor Arthur Bentley (54.6 percent) over former paper manufacturer executive Karl Mathie (45.4 percent)
1940 (6.6 points): Former GOP Governor Francis McGovern (38.9 percent) over former Milwaukee city purchasing agent William Callahan (32.3 percent)
1942 (0.3 points): Kaukauna Mayor and dentist William Sullivan (24.3 percent) over state Democratic Chairman Gustav Keller of Appleton (24.0 percent)
1982 (3.9 points): Former State Assemblyman Tony Earl (45.9 percent) over former Governor Martin Schrieber (42.0 percent)
2002 (3.9 points): Attorney General Jim Doyle (38.4 percent) over U.S. Representative Tom Barrett (34.5 percent)
2026 (0.5 points): Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (39.8 percent) over State Assemblywoman Francesca Hong (39.3 percent)

Seven on the Republican side:

1918 (0.2 points): Governor Emanuel Philipp (38.0 percent) over State Senator Roy Wilcox of Eau Claire (37.8 percent)
1920 (2.9 points): Attorney General John Blaine (29.9 percent) over Wilcox (27.0 percent)
1926 (8.1 points): Secretary of State Fred Zimmerman (46.8 percent) over Attorney General Herman Ekern (38.7 percent)
1928 (4.1 points): Plumbing manufacturer executive Walter Kohler, Sr. (43.7 percent) over U.S. Representative Joseph Beck (39.6 percent)
1936 (3.6 points): Former Chippewa County Attorney Alexander Wiley (51.8 percent) over newspaper Ashland editor John Chapple (48.2 percent)
1946 (3.4 points): Governor Walter Goodland (42.5 percent) over state Adjutant General Ralph Immell (39.1 percent)
2022 (5.1 points): Business executive Tim Michels (47.1 percent) over former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch (42.0 percent)

And two for the Progressives:

1940 (6.2 points): Former state Attorney General Orland Loomis (33.1 percent) over Chippewa Falls attorney Harold Stafford (26.9 percent)
1944 (0.8 points): Aid Association for Lutherans president Alexander Benz (33.1 percent) of Appleton over Kenosha attorney Leo Vaudreuil (32.3 percent)

In Tuesday’s Republican primary, U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany easily won nomination with 95.3 percent of the vote. It was the most support received by a non-incumbent in a contested GOP primary for governor in state history, besting Lieutenant Governor Jack Olson’s mark of 91.4 percent in 1970.

The average primary victory margin across all 96 races has been 53.0 points including 30 gubernatorial nominations that went uncontested.

The seven-candidate Democratic field this cycle was the second-largest in a gubernatorial primary in state history.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

The post Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary by the Numbers appeared first on Smart Politics.