ChangeWaves

Ten Successful Forecasts

2009-06-16T19:46:39Z

When we talk to clients and prospects, it's inevitable that this question is going to come up: "So, how accurate have your forecasts been in the past?"

We note that, even though we're futurists, we aren't in the business of making single-point predictions about the future. We believe that it is neither possible nor useful to declare that one particular future is the only possible outcome. That is rarely the case. Instead, we help our clients prepare for a range of futures, and pursue the one they desire.

Still, that doesn't mean we don't make forecasts about probable trend outcomes or likely changes. And we pay attention to how our forecasts pan out, as we want to know what we get right, and what we missed. Of course, being futurists, our focus in on the medium to long term, and so it takes a while for an assessment.

Lately we've been reviewing some materials from the early years of our Global Lifestyles project, and we seem to have done all right. Here are some of the changes that we anticipated:

Exergaming

In 2002 we wrote:

Games could be used to make exercise more entertaining, with game-like systems added to in-home and gym exercise equipment such as treadmills and stationary bikes. Systems to induce children to exercise could find favor, particularly if the anti-obesity movement builds.

Games such as Dance Dance Revolution began to be used in schools as of 2007, to combat obesity. Wii Fit came out in 2008 and has been topping the gaming charts for the Nintendo platform, with six million units sold in the US already.

Virtual entrepreneurship

In 2002 we said:

As more virtual economies grow, some [users] will also support themselves in virtual environments, selling virtual goods and services for real-world money.

Large numbers of people are beginning to make a living this way, for instance designing and selling virtual clothing within Second Life.

Genetic diets

In 2001 we wrote:

New kinds of nutraceuticals and other products will appear for people based on their genomes. Much of this will be science based, but there will also be a large market for semi-scientific and pseudo-scientific genetics products.

So-called genetics-based diets appeared in the mid-2000s, but most are still only loosely based on hard science and are of "limited use".

Social tracking

In 2002 we said:

Kids and teens might value the ability to enable their friends to find and track them, for social purposes. This capability could enhance the "dial-a-herd" culture that mobile phones and instant messaging are creating among teens, who use them to summon impromptu groups or find each other in public spaces.

These kinds of services began to roll out in 2007; companies such as Plazes and Loopt are dedicated to this kind of "geosocial networking."

(road image courtesy kwerfeldein, Flickr)

Credit crisis

In 2004 we wrote about the potential for crisis at Fannie Mae:

US mortgage lender Fannie Mae plays a critical role in keeping the mortgage market liquid. However, it is currently being scrutinized by regulators for improper accounting practices. Revelations regarding the insolvency of Fannie Mae could rock world credit markets.

Fannie Mae's insolvency and the subsequent government takeover in fall 2008 were crucial elements in tipping the US credit system into a larger financial crisis.

Branding the virtual

A 2002 forecast stated that:

Product placement could extend to ... selling virtual branded goods straight to consumers within games.

Companies such as Nike started operating virtual stores within Second Life, which didn't exist when the forecast was written. (See this post from KZERO for an interesting timeline on when major retail brands entered Second Life.)

Virtual work spaces

A 2002 forecast suggested that:

Multiplayer game systems will provide templates for software for other kinds of group activity, such as virtual meetings and collaborative dispersed work.

Large companies began to create virtual work spaces using Second Life and other platforms as of 2006-2007. There is also a budding industry that helps organizations hold virtual trade shows, job fairs, conferences, and other events, led by companies such as Unisfair.

Genealogy in the genome

In 2002 we wrote:

New services and products serving consumer interest in "who am I?" : Genealogy blended with genetics ... by 2010 it will be common and practical for people to have their DNA assessed and find the geographical region (down at least to the county or township) of their ancestry.

By 2007, many services offering genetics-based ancestor tracing had emerged. For $120 you can even trace the heritage of your mixed-breed mutt with services such as the Canine Heritage Breed Test.

Selling virtual goods

A 2002 forecast stated that:

Online products such as accessories for online avatars could become as valuable as actual goods. A custom electronic makeover of a net user's image could be as valuable as a Versace suit.

Virtual economies exploded in the 2000s, and online goods and characters became as valuable as many real-world goods. The overall virtual goods market in the US has been valued at over $200 million.

Chip-implanted humans

In 2002 we wrote:

Many ... tracking and monitoring devices have applications for senior populations, a market growing faster than the kids' market in World 1 countries.

As of 2007, Alzheimer's patients had begun to be implanted with RFID tracking devices -- an application which was not even permitted when the forecast was made.

********************************************************************************

A list like this of course begs the question: what did you get wrong?

Fortunately, that is not as clear as what we got right. By the end of 2010, we suspect we will discover that we underestimated how change-resistant the American healthcare system is when it comes to adopting new technologies, and overestimated the speed at which some genetic applications could roll out, based on things we wrote in 2001. Stay tuned as we keep our eye on this question.

New Research in the Global Lifestyles Project

2009-06-11T19:00:37Z

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

Multimedia Feature--Mobile Leapfrogging
The spread of mobile phones in Worlds 2 and 3 is allowing consumers to "leapfrog" over fixed-line, computer-based Internet to mobile Internet services. The changes that mobile Internet is bringing to consumer lifestyles in these regions are far-reaching: helping consumers expand communications, participate in formal banking, become entrepreneurs, improve their health and safety, participate in politics, enjoy new social freedoms, and increase their access to broadcast media.

12 Emerging Issues for the Next 12 Years: Post-Materialist Business Models
A new kind of consumer is emerging: one skeptical of the link between material acquisition and happiness. These consumers tend to be well-off, well-educated, and desirous of experiences as opposed to things. Marketing to this emerging segment, which is spread across World 1 and affluent pockets of World 2, will prove a challenge for many businesses, which will need to shift their tactics to appeal to new values.

12 Emerging Issues for the Next 12 Years: Global Bankruptcy
The economies of most nations in World 1 face hard demographic and fiscal facts: their rapidly graying populations and soaring entitlement costs are a recipe for economic disaster. Unless changes are made in social welfare and healthcare programs for older workers and retirees, World 1 economies could slow over the medium term and, eventually, stall out.

12 Emerging Issues for the Next 12 Years: De-Globalization
Globalization's continuing advance is not assured. Emerging economic, political, and environmental trends could undermine the incentives for doing business globally, potentially slowing--or even reversing--the pace of globalization.

12 Emerging Issues for the Next 12 Years: The Future of Truth
Infotech is changing the way people consume, exchange, and gather information. As more people turn to new media, such as social networks and blogs, for their information, how people determine the value and truth of information is changing. Companies and consumers alike are learning to adapt to the blurring line between fact and fiction, and its implications for the future of truth.

Images: Indian with mobile -- Social Technologies; elderly Japanese man -- malias (Flickr)

Apple Won't Let Your Kids Fall Far from the Tree

2009-06-02T19:30:47Z

People have often joked that Apple enthusiasts (particularly Mac users) sound like cultists as they spin tales of the wonderfullness of Mac and Apple. The email I received today makes me think these jokes were not too far off:

Your kids could talk about what they did this summer--or just press Play. At Apple Camp, kids ages 8-12 learn how to do cool stuff on a Mac: make a movie, show off photos like a pro, write and record a song, or create a multimedia presentation. You can sign up for as many three-hour workshops as you like. But space is limited, so do it soon. Then get ready for an adventure.

Hats off to Apple for trying to get at the next generation of users/customers as early as possible. But I have to wonder, given the "cool" factor of Apple products these days, why does Cupertino believe it has to make this kind of pre-emptive move?

Image: Mario Sanchez Bueno (Flickr)

New Research in the Global Lifestyles Project

2009-04-29T21:00:46Z

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

China and Recession
Three Scenarios to 2015
When the global recession began in 2008, China was better prepared than most other economies. Still, all sectors of Chinese society have felt the impacts of the downturn. Ultimately the recession's impacts on China will depend on the length and severity of the downturn: in a moderate or severe global recession, Chinese consumers will see hardship but little permanent harm, while a global depression would likely push China itself into recession and trigger serious societal instability.

Country Profile -- Switzerland
Demography, Business Conditions, and Consumer Life
A rich World 1 country, Switzerland is home to some of the world's wealthiest consumers. It is demographically stable but has a high and rising median age, and its mature economy is growing only slowly. This brief is one in a series of graphical profiles of selected markets in all three Worlds.

Crowdsourced Government
Three Tools for Open-Source Government
World 1 governments are experimenting with crowdsourcing to elicit direct input from citizens, while citizens are using crowdsourcing tools to boost their civic engagement and better influence governance. This brief discusses three knowledge tools--wikis and participatory mapping, idea percolators, and data mashups and linked data--and how they could enable citizens to interact more directly with governments.

American Generations -- Baby Boomers
Factors Shaping Boomers' Lives and Choices
America's baby boomers have lived through great change in their lives, often redefining lifestages as they have passed through them. Boomers will keep innovating as they enter their "third age" at a time that will likely include an eclectic mix of work, leisure, education, and semi-retirement. This brief presents 16 factors that will shape boomers' lives and choices in the coming decade. It is part of a series on the future of four US generations.

Images: Chinese -- ernop (Flickr); woman -- jo-h (Flickr)

Social Media and Congress

2009-04-22T15:30:13Z

A reporter on National Public Radio asked this morning why there seemed to be a lot more social media use on the House side of Congress than on the Senate side.

Here's a theory:

Average age in the Senate (as of the 110th Congress): 62. Average age in the House: 57. Those 5 years may make a lot of difference in tech use. In the Senate, the youngest member is 42, making her an older member of Gen X, and a digital immigrant. The House, meanwhile, has a 27-year-old, a clear digital native.
Social networking is about drawing on the ideas and strength of others; social media are more naturally tools of the powerless than the powerful. In the Washington scheme of things, senators are pretty powerful, while your run-of-the-mill representative needs all the help he can get.

Image courtesy kimberlyfaye (Flickr)

New Research from the Global Lifestyles Project

2009-04-13T19:10:14Z

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

Multimedia Feature -- The Future of Truth

The embrace of virtual information - particularly online social networking - and changes in the media world are blurring truth and making deception both easier to accomplish and more far-reaching. As these trends advance, the very definition of truth could shift.

The Top 20 Trends and Recession -- Part II: Culture, Infrastructure, and Values Trends

This brief is the second in a two-part series examining the impacts on the Top 20 trends of three levels of economic downturn: moderate recession, severe recession, and a depression. Economic downturn will tend to affect these trends' expression more than their direction, though a number of the trends could actually reverse in the event of a depression.

The Top 20 Trends and Recession - Part I: Demography and Wealth Trends
Though the Top 20 trends are durable and deep-rooted, they are now subject to a powerful force: global recession. While it would take severe disruption to reverse them over the medium and long terms, most will shift under these new economic pressures. This brief examines the impacts of three levels of economic downturn: moderate recession, severe recession, and a depression.

Country Profile -- Lebanon
Lebanon is a small World 2 country situated between Israel and Syria on the Mediterranean Sea. It has had a difficult past filled with bloody civil conflicts, but is reemerging as a center of commerce. The country will face continued stability threats from both internal and external forces.

Fractional Lifestyles: Sharing in Luxuries

The growing practice of fractional ownership, or owning shares of luxury assets, allows high-end consumers - and, increasingly, middle-income consumers with high-end tastes - to indulge in luxuries without having to pay the full cost. Driven by such factors as affordability, convenience, value shifts, middle-income aspirations, and mitigation of risk, fractional ownership could expand to a wider range of products and services as well as to additional consumer markets.

Latin American Mobiles
Mobile phones have become the main means of communication for Latin American consumers and will continue to grow in importance as they offer more advanced and varied services to subscribers. In the coming decade, Latin Americans will use mobiles as their main access point for the Internet, financial services, and to some extent media and entertainment, including music and television content.

Warner Bros Thrashes Its Long Tail

2009-04-07T21:10:56Z

Wired editor Chris Anderson's book The Long Tail is arguably one of the more influential business texts of the past five years. For those not familiar with his premise, he argues that the Internet plus just-in-time manufacturing (or printing, or publishing) helps foster demand in niche markets. In other words, while there will always be blockbusters, demand for singles, one-offs, and more obscure products will grow -- and as a result present a viable source of revenue. (The long tail is in reference to how this demand is graphically charted.) This idea is a boon for content producers and owners as it posits long-term demand for products, rather than just one-time sales, and. because production is so cheap, makes it cost-effective to produce in batches as small as a single item.

Warner Bros. is about to exploit the long tail in a big way, with its new initiative to make the titles in its vast movie library available on a made-to-order basis. Rather than run the risk of printing thousands of DVDs for sale, Warner is allowing customers to purchase single copies of movies, allowing the company to monetize its back catalog at very low cost. With a library of 6,800 films, Warner Bros. has not come close to releasing all of these on DVD, with only about 1,200 titles out via conventional processes. As Tom Adams of Adams Media Research commented, "I think ultimately the odds are very good that every film ever made will be available on this kind of basis, because why not?"

Initially, 150 titles will be available, with 20 more added per month. In another nod to the times, Warner will offer the option of having the film burned to disc or as a digital download.

This demonstrates some forward thinking, not always evident these days as the movie industry wrestles with how to survive and thrive in the digital age. The long tail presupposes there is a customer, perhaps only a single customer, for any product. By opening its library, Warner Bros. takes a step toward finding buyers for each of its films.

(Image: Gareth Simpson, Flickr)

Television's short season

2009-04-02T18:20:00Z

About a year ago I gave an interview to Television Week magazine on the future of television in which I stated:

To keep the attention and interest of the viewers in the ever-fracturing media landscape, I believe that television is going to have to move with them as well ...They're doing short runs as well to better package them as discrete units of entertainment content. Eventually, that's going to be what the TV networks as they exist now are going to have to do.

So it was with some interest that I read this story in Entertainment Weekly, claiming that television executives are starting to mull the idea of launching certain kinds of shows (mainly serial dramas) with an end date in mind. This would allow for a number of creative and financial benefits:

It gives creators a finite time to tell their story and eliminates the need for wheel-spinning episodes.
It gives viewers reassurance that the story is going somewhere; it opens more slots in broadcast schedules for new programs (no more Law & Order clogging up the schedules).
More programs mean networks can truly program a 52 week season.
It could allow for more big-name actors to commit to a series if they know it will only be for two years.

Cable outlets such as AMC and FX are finding success with such fare as Mad Men and The Shield. Each season is self-contained (though building on events of previous seasons) so that if the network decides to pull the plug, viewers get a whole story and are not left wondering what happens next.

One of the first experiments in limited run series on network television will be CBS' upcoming murder mystery Harper's Island, scheduled to run for 13 episodes this spring. If successful, the show could return later with a new cast and new story.

So what say you readers, would you be willing to re-commit to television if you knew that you only had to pay attention for a season or two?

(Image: Social Technologies)

Getty Images and the Flickrverse

2009-03-17T14:35:12Z

A couple years back in our Technology Values series we analysed the role of user creativity and how this developing mindset would impact businesses. Two points we made:

Companies will harness user-led innovation as a low-cost way to boost R&D and give lead users a role in the design and creation of new products, services, and content.
Beyond the creative and content benefits, supporting user creativity could yield valuable public relations and marketing benefits.

When I saw mention of Getty Images' Flickr Collection on AppScout it struck me as a great example of both of these things. Getty editors are scanning Flickr for great photographs and inviting the Flickr members who took them to have their images in Getty's collection for commercial licensing. Getty gets to troll an ever-growing collection of pics for new commercially viable content. They also get to show the world that they aren't just an old-school stock photo company with a nice website, but instead understand and value user-generated content. Good play Getty.

The Pernicious "Reporter Trend"

2009-02-27T16:00:41Z

This story from the Washington Post is a few tweaks and a prominent reference to Axe body spray away from being full-on Onion story. Purportedly a look at dating during the economic downturn, and trying to be one of those zeitgeist-y pieces that today's news organizations hope will catch fire with the pop culture commentariat, this piece is in fact a shining example of what we at S)T call "a reporter trend."

The story is chock-a-block full of quotes from young men bemoaning how they can no longer can spend "$600 to $700 a month" on dating and young women saying, "I guess I'm kind of traditional. So if a guy can't really take you out or doesn't have the money or the state of mind to take girls out, then it's not going to go anywhere."

So it is understandable to think that this is a snapshot of romance derailed by the crashing of the gravy train, until you get to the relevatory sentence: "Formal studies on the matter are hard to find, and Washington area employment rates are still higher than those of many other metropolitan areas."(emphasis added).

Aha! This is not a trend study of changing twentysomething dating patterns at all, but rather appears to be based on the reporter talking to a group of people who happen to be at the same bar on the same night.

As stated, this type of article is bait for pop culture navel-gazing, but for those who follow consumer trends more seriously, it is a lesson in reading sources carefully. Is the economic downturn contracting date-related spending? Who knows? Possibly. But it would be irresponsible for anyone to make that claim based on this article alone, which contains no facts or data beyond the anecdotal $600-$700 a month cited above. One of the first lessons we teach new futurists is "Just because a 'trend' is in the newspaper doesn't mean it is actually occurring." It's a lesson that would serve any critical reader well.

Also, $600 a month on dating? No wonder it took me so long to get married.

Image: CarbonNYC (Flickr)

New Research from the Global Lifestyles Project

2009-02-27T15:35:56Z

New briefs are available to subscribers to Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

The Internet in Africa
A Sub-Saharan Web Starts to Take Shape
Despite decades of investment, sub-Saharan Africa's Internet connectivity remains among the world's lowest. Recently, however, cheaper wireless networking, rapid spread of Internet-ready mobiles, and the rise of a regional innovation culture have begun to help millions of Africans access the Internet for the first time.

Wildcard--The Male Pill
Hormonal Birth Control for the Other Half

A growing body of positive results from human trials--along with recent surveys that show most men and women are open to the concept--could help make male hormonal contraception (MHC) a reality in the next two decades. Wide adoption of MHC would change the balance of contraceptive choices, increase men's control over conception, and potentially raise new issues between the sexes.

Country Profile--Argentina
Demography, Business Conditions, and Consumer Life
A World 2 country in South America, Argentina is second only to Brazil in terms of geographic and economic size in the region. Business conditions are moderate, with corruption a substantial problem. Argentines are relatively well-off for World 2, and are consuming again after enduring a severe economic crash in 2001.

Chinese Home Design
An Interview with Zhu Xueyan of Tongji Fame
Social Technologies interviewed Zhu Xueyan, co-founder of the Shanghai design and architecture firm Tongji Fame, to talk about home design trends and the state of design in China. Interior design tastes are changing rapidly as the nation and its consumers gain economic and cultural clout. But Chinese at all income levels remain price-sensitive, which tends to limit their interest in sustainable designs or other innovations.

Cloud computing's cloudy future?

2009-02-05T15:30:29Z

A massive server failure at Ma.gnolia on January 30 has resulted in almost all of the data, mainly bookmarks, at the social bookmarking site to be lost. Four days after the fact, Ma.Gnolia is still attempting to rebuild their servers and recreate the lost data, but a recent post on the Ma.gnolia site by its founder is prepping users for the worst.

So-called Web 2.0 websites like Ma.gnolia, Flickr or Del.icio.us have been leaders in the move to cloud computing: the storage of data on webservers, rather than hard drives. The obvious benefit of this is that users can take advantage of cheap storage and house massive amounts of data on these servers. Because the data is on webservers, there are two more advantages: the data can be accessed from any Internet-linked device, and it can be shared with, and in some cases added to, by others. In the case of a site like Ma.gnolia (which in full disclosure I used) users could bookmark and tag websites and even clips from websites, so that they could be easly found again. Users of the site could also search everyone else's bookmarks as well, so if I, for example, was looking for information on cloud computing, I could search my own bookmarks, and all other users' bookmarks as well. It's a tremendously helpful research tool as others have already done much of your legwork for you.

But the failure of Ma.gnolia highlights a prime drawback of cloud computing, the "all your eggs in one basket problem." Just like when your hard drive fails, the failure of webservers wipes out your data. An obvious problem, but one that has not been discussed widely, as many proponents of the cloud often posit the safety of data on the cloud as one of its advantages, due to backup servers and other redundancies.

The Ma.gnolia loss may be a rare event. The odds of a Web 2.0 site losing both its primary and backup servers were seen as quite low, hence the surprise in the user community. How the data were lost (and Ma.gnolia has not been forthcoming on details about this) might go a long way toward mollifying worried Web 2.0 users. One failure does not spell the end of cloud computing, despite the elimination of millions of bookmarks and manhours of work, and the severing of numerous social connections that existed only on the Ma.gnolia site. Ultimately this may be seen as a small setback in the migration to the information cloud, but I am sure that today that is small comfort to those who've seen years of work wiped out.

What 2009 Will Reveal

2009-01-30T18:00:00Z

This year promises to be an unusually pivotal one, as a new American administration intersects with global economic chaos. And, while we expect 2009 to be full of turbulence and short-term uncertainty, it may also reveal some long-term directions for the world. Here are seven possibilities.

1. Are we depressed?
Of course, the biggest single question hanging over the year is the unknown depth of our economic difficulties. Is this an ordinary recession? A super-recession? Or might we find ourselves in a new depression? Already, we're seeing some significant consequences of the economic meltdown, such as changes in the finance system and new roles for government. These and other effects will linger for years. Long-running trends have been interrupted: world trade is expected to drop for the first time in a quarter century, and US retail sales are expected to decrease for the first time since 1995, when the National Retail Federation began tracking them. If the world heads into a true depression, changes in economic patterns, social issues, and consumer values would last a generation, just as they did for those who weathered the economic storms of the 1930s. So far, the worst outcome still appears unlikely.

2. How deep does green go?
This economic downturn will test Americans' commitment to sustainability. Will it all be abandoned if times get tougher and energy prices continue to drop? Aspects perceived as luxuries-from organic food to carbon offsets-may be set aside if consumers feel pinched. On the other hand, investments made now could promote sustainable practices that save resources and money over the long term. Already we're hearing that the Obama administration's stimulus package will include funding to make federal buildings more energy-efficient, which is expected to save $2 billion annually.

3. A new energy economy
Meanwhile, at the structural level, the Obama administration is intent on transitioning to a new American energy economy. This next year will reveal more of the contours of this economy, and begin to hint at the speed at which it might arrive. Despite an ambitious first week for President Obama that included calling for higher fuel economy standards and plans for $500 million in "green-collar" job training, some might be disappointed: a transition will be hugely expensive and sunk investment is vast, so change may be slower in coming than many hope.

4. Friending Grandma?
On the lighter side, this year we may discover what it means when adults swarm on to social networking sites such as Facebook. Will altered demographics change their character? Will some networks become so uncool-or closely watched-that the original users have to migrate elsewhere else to find a home for their indiscreet pictures? Will users self-select by age, so that we see more sites like boomj.com, a social-networking site targeting boomers?

5. The Chinese model under stress
Our analysts have been writing about possible discontinuities for China for a while now (see this report from 2005, for instance), and we are seeing some of the warning indicators we've discussed in the past. China's growth is slowing as the economic downturn hurts global demand. As Chinese workers lose their jobs, it begins to call into question China's basic social model: rising prosperity in return for popular acquiescence to authoritarian Party rule. We may see just how far this bargain between China and its citizens can be strained. The consequences of instability in China would go well beyond that country's borders: to begin with, it is the world's manufacturer, and a disruption in production would affect the supply of countless consumer goods.

6. A global deal on global climate
Efforts to address climate change issues have been stymied by American reluctance to engage with the issue and by uncertainty about how to bring emerging economies-especially China and India-into the process. With Obama in office, the US position is going to change, and we may begin to see the outlines of the grand bargain on global warming-and thus what the post-Kyoto world will look like for businesses and consumers.

7. America the leader?
Many are expecting a reinvigorated role for the United States now that the Bush administration has moved on. The Obama team and many foreign governments (and publics) seem inclined to resume more cooperative relationships. This year may begin to reveal how receptive the world is to a renewed American leadership role in light of the changes of the last eight years. New economic powers are asserting themselves: China in particular is widely seen as ascendant. While the US was going ever deeper into debt and mired in Iraq, China was amassing immense foreign exchange reserves and offering aid and trade deals around the globe. More broadly, while the US may still have the largest economy and the most powerful military, the economic crisis has generated new levels of distrust of American advice, and some regions are still stung by Bush-era policies. We will begin to see whether all that can be overcome.

Images -- Depression line: Tony the Misfit (Flickr); turbine: bogenfreund (Flickr); flag: aprilzosia (Flickr)

New Research in the Global Lifestyles Project

2009-01-30T16:17:33Z

New briefs are available to subscribers of Social Technologies' Global Lifestyles project:

Multimedia Feature--Business Impacts of Social Media: PowerPoint
Social media-i.e., social networking and information-sharing tools like Blogger, Flickr, Facebook, and YouTube-are playing an increasingly important role in the lives of many World 1 consumers. This special feature explores how businesses are impacted by the new modes of communication and interaction afforded by social media-drawing from two sources: an interview with Charlene Li, co-author of Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies, and Global Lifestyles' own analyses of the consumer impacts of social media. )))

Fishing's Uncertain Future
Three Scenarios for the Future of the Global Fish Supply
The future of the global fish supply as a food resource is in doubt. Surging consumption, overfishing, and unsustainable aquaculture practices are threatening a number of staple species. Left unchecked, the global fish supply could reach full collapse by 2048. However, regulatory action and/or new aquaculture technologies and practices could reverse these trends. This brief presents three scenarios for the future of fish through 2025. )))

Korea's Education Obsession
Four Forecasts
South Korea's attitudes toward education are in flux, influenced by three driving forces: an aging population, surging demand for English fluency, and the advent of effective machine translation. The confluence of these three forces could push the nation's mindset of educational hyper-achievement in new directions-potentially including a broader shift in Korea's attitudes toward achievement and success. )))

Wildcard-The End of Movie Theaters
Why Go Out for a Movie?
In a world where consumers increasingly expect entertainment to be provided on demand and at their convenience, movie theaters in the US could lose their viability. Ticket sales have declined almost every year since 2002, and recession, rising ticket prices, and technical advances in home theater systems could gradually lead to the disappearance of US movie theaters from the entertainment landscape. )))

The Grocery Revolution in Worlds 2 and 3
Tracking the Third and Fourth Waves of Growth
Formal grocery-store chains have been spreading rapidly in the developing world, displacing traditional food retailers. These chains tend to bring significant benefits to consumers, including lower food prices, greater product diversity, and higher-quality foods. On the other hand, local retailers, food processors, and farmers are often severely challenged. Over time, grocery chains tend to transform local and regional food systems. )))

The Obamaberry: Imagine the Possibilities

2009-01-26T14:40:34Z

Anyone else find this aticle from The Guardian on Barack Obama's continuing Blackberry use interesting from a social/ connectedness standpoint? Presumably in the future it will be harder and harder to find a leader among the digital natives who will be willing to give up on being connected.

Yet I think one trend among CEOs and other high flyers over the years has been to disconnect since it insulates them on a legal level from certain problems, enhances security, and also in a way confers some degree of status - my people will take care of those things for me. Obama's insistence may portend a reversal of that trend, which may or may not wither away thanks to the younger generation ascending to executive levels.

One imagines the downside for the fully connected, busy father/husband/Commander in Chief...

Message from B. Obama to Mikhael Obadnikov, Russian Consulate
Date: April 12, 2009
Title: Nuclear Codes?
Honey, do you remember where I put those nuclear codes? I think they were in my briefcase, which I may have left behind at the fundraiser...

Message from B. Obama to M. Obama
Date: April 12, 2009
Title: Nuclear Codes?
Oh crap, I think I may have just accidentally sent a message to the Russian consulate telling them where our nuclear codes are! OMG! OMG!

Message from B. Obama to Mikhael Obadnikov, Russian Consulate
Date: April 12, 2009
Barack Obama would like to recall message: Nuclear codes?

Image: edans (Flickr)