SocialPicks.com: Front Page Picks

NPD - CHINA NEPSTAR POISED FOR SIGNIFICANT GROWTH (NPD, rated BUY)

penny7 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:06:15 -0000

Sure, investors need to evaluate Nepstar's financials, but it doesn't take a seasoned analyst to spot the growth potential this company holds, driven by a potentially explosive Chinese economy and that country's consumers shifting from small shops to larger drug stores. Although many were surprised at first, a second look shows how Nepstar was able to issue such a large dividend this year. This trend shows no reason to stop in the near term.

Rating: Strong Buy.

EXACT Sciences (NASDAQ: EXAS): Buy and Hold for Long-Term Upside (EXAS, rated BUY)

Mike Havrilla — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:22:43 -0000

EXACT Sciences (NASDAQ: EXAS) is a molecular diagnostics company that is developing a next-generation (V3), stool DNA (sDNA) based screening test for colorectal cancer (CRC) which has demonstrated the ability to detect both early-stage cancer and pre-cancerous growths. The Company's sDNA-based screening technology platform has also demonstrated the ability to detect related GI cancers and pre-cancers.

Only 24% of an estimated 90 million individuals in the U.S. are currently compliant with CRC screening recommendations, which results in an estimated 68 million people who are non-compliant. The early detection of CRC saves both lives and money by avoiding the high costs of dealing with late-stage disease through expensive anti-cancer drugs and/or palliative care. Late stage (III/IV) CRC accounts for 60% of diagnoses, but the five-year survival rates for Stage III CRC is 60% and just 11% for Stage IV disease. Compare those statistics to early stage disease, which includes a 90% five-year survival rate for Stage I CRC and 70% for Stage II.

The ProActive News Room landing page for EXAS has been updated to include my 3Q09 update report, which is also available to view or download as a PDF at the BioMedReports.com research downloads section . Below is the earnings model that I have updated for EXAS, in addition to a summary of updates since my 2Q09 report. The earnings model below highlights the significant market opportunity for EXAS, including estimated earning power of approximately $6 / share in 2013. Applying a 50% discount rate for three years yields a $15 fair value estimate for shares of EXAS.

1.) Since my 2Q09 update report for EXAS in mid-August, the share price is essentially flat (from $2.59 to $2.63), the three-month average daily trading volume has declined 37.5% (from 104,000 to 65,000), the short interest has increased by 21,000 shares (to 162,000), and cash / equivalents have decreased by $0.9 million to a level of $26.9 million.

2.) Data is expected by 3Q10 to provide external validation of the Company's stool DNA based CRC test kit while a clinical trial to support marketing clearance of the CRC test kit from the FDA is expected to begin during 2Q-3Q11. EXAS expects total costs of approximately $15-20 million for the FDA study, which will involve 20-30 sites.

3.) A submission to the FDA for marketing clearance is expected during 2012 via the 510(k) de novo route (since no predicate device exists with FDA marketing clearance). EXAS has received extensive input from the FDA for the design of this clinical trial and will remain in close contact with the Agency, following the same model of success applied at Third Wave for that Company's HPV test.

4.) EXAS provided guidance for an average cash burn rate of about $1 million per month during 2010, which is expected to increase slightly as the Company continues to expand and adds additional personnel.

5.) EXAS expects a reimbursement rate of $300 for its next-generation (V3) stool DNA based test kit for CRC while the Company expects to receive approximately $150 per kit from the U.S. labs that would offer / license the test kit, in addition to gross margins in excess of 65% (about $100 per test kit in gross profits).

6.) EXAS has thoroughly examined blood-based detection tests for CRC in collaboration with industry experts and concluded the technology is not commercially or clinically feasible at this time given very low detection of pre-cancer (18%) and early-stage (Stage I) CRC (36%) along with a 10% false positive rate. In addition, virtual colonoscopy entails a significant dose of radiation, cannot detect flat lesions, requires a full colon cleanse, and may still require a follow-up colonoscopy. Existing FIT / FOBT fail to detect pre-cancers and early-stage disease at meaningful rate.

7.) In March, EXAS conducted a management overhaul that included Mr. Conroy and CFO Maneesh Arora, following their successful tenure at Third Wave Technologies. In early August, EXAS announced the appointment of Graham P. Lidgard, Ph.D., as Chief Scientific Officer, who has over three decades of clinical / molecular diagnostics experience and a successful track record at Gen-Probe (NASDAQ: GPRO). Other key collaborations include the Mayo Clinic (Dr. David Ahlquist), Johns Hopkins (Dr. Bert Vogelstein), Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ), Case Western Reserve (Dr. Sandy Markowitz).

8.) In late October, EXAS made a SEC 8-K filing regarding its President / CEO, Kevin T. Conroy, who is considering a run for Governor of Wisconsin in 2010. Mr. Conroy stated on the 3Q09 conference call today a succession plan would be premature at this point, and he plans to make a decision in the very near future on whether to make the run for governor (this would be communicated in the form of another SEC 8-K filing) - indicating that he is only considering such a move because of confidence in the strong team that is already in place at EXAS.

The BioMedReports.com FDA Calendar service includes a database with over 400 entries of (1) pending new drug, biological agent, or medical device new product decisions at the FDA (e.g. NDA, BLA, 510k, PMA, sNDA, and sBLA filings); (2) pending new submissions to the FDA; (3) pending complete response letter (CRL) re-submissions to the FDA; and (4) pending clinical trial results. Coming soon is a premium service offered in collaboration with Investars YOU for full access to a global database of over 1,000 stocks which are organized and managed within my 22 ProActive HavRx stock indexes . This service will allow investors to create custom portfolios, personalized exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and generate investment ideas based on their personal preferences, beliefs, and opinions through specialized stock indexes that are organized and targeted toward a wide variety of themes.

Disclosure: Long EXAS

New Global Equity Index to Track Immunotherapy, Vaccine Stocks (DNDN, rated BUY)

Mike Havrilla — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:17:58 -0000

Earlier this week, Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN ) announced that it has completed the submission of its amended Biologics License Application ( BLA ) for PROVENGE (sipuleucel-T), seeking approval for men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer ( CRPC ). The amended BLA includes data from the IMPACT trial, which was conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment agreement with the FDA. The IMPACT study met its pre-specified primary endpoint demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in overall survival in men with metastatic CRPC.

PROVENGE is currently available through several ongoing clinical trials, including OpenACT, an open label trial enrolling men with metastatic CRPC, ProACT, and NeoACT. On 4/28/09, DNDN announced that its experimental cancer vaccine Provenge extended the life of patients with advanced prostate cancer by a median of 4.1 months, which is one month longer than the only other treatment option, Taxotere. The Company will have the manufacturing capacity to generate possible sales of $60-125 million during 2H10 until full capacity is achieved in late 2011. The estimated date for a possible FDA decision is 5/3/10 if a priority (six-month) review is granted by the Agency.

Provenge is poised to become the first FDA approved therapeutic cancer vaccine, which represents a high-risk space for drug development, including public companies such as Favrille, Genitope, and Cell Genesys which have previously failed in late-stage, Phase 3 clinical trials for their therapeutic cancer vaccines. Below is a new index launched last month and tracked at the Investars YOU website for the immunotherapy and vaccine space, including 40 companies on a global basis.

The actively managed HavRx  ImmunoTherapy / Vaccines Index  includes companies with market caps below $5 billion at the time of index inclusion which are developing or commercializing any type of immunotherapy, gene therapy, or vaccine product that is designed to stimulate the immune system for the eradication, combination treatment, or prevention of cancer. In addition, the index will track companies which are developing or commercializing any type of vaccine product or vaccine adjuvant for all types of infectious disease such as influenza (flu) and bio-defense applications.

Disclosure: No positions

Railroad Stocks Steam Ahead on Buffett’s Buy of BNI (BNI, rated BUY)

Mike Havrilla — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:45:21 -0000

Railroad stocks are steaming ahead today on news that Warren Buffett will buy Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI ) as a bet on the recovery of the domestic and global economy as part of Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-A) largest acquisition ever. Berkshire previously owned over 22% of BNI and will also conduct a 50 : 1 split of his Company's lower-priced Class B shares (NYSE: BRK-B). Buffett is also bullish on the railroad industry as a green form of fuel / cost-effective means for the transportation of goods as compared to other forms of transport such as roadway trucking.

The ProActive Global Railroad Index (+4.3% today) is actively managed and tracks the performance of companies that derive either more than 50% OR $100 million of trailing 12-month revenue from any of the following activities: (1) passenger or freight rail transport services; (2) railcar and locomotive leasing; (3) railcar and locomotive fleet management; (4) rail infrastructure, railcar, locomotive, and railcar/locomotive component parts manufacturing; (5) railcar, locomotive, and component parts repair or refurbishment. The rally today among railroad stocks is helping to stem some of the recent losses experienced over the past three months, as illustrated on the accompanying chart.

Number of Stocks in Index: 52

Number of US stocks in Index: 19

Average Market Cap (US-traded stocks): $6.7 billion

Period Range: $1096.79 - $1255.23

Last Price: $1,176.94 (+11.8% since 24-June)

(This index has been tracked at Investars YOU website since 6/24/09 with a starting value of $1000)

Today Change: 50.84 (4.32%)

This index tracks the performance of the railroad index, including 52 companies on a worldwide basis with 19 of these that are US-based. As a new ETF idea, the global railroad industry would offer investors an investment option in the specialized global transport space such as Claymore's passenger airline ETF (NYSE: FAA ), shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA ), and PowerShare's Global Progressive Transportation (NASDAQ: PTRP ). The iShares Dow Jones Transport (NYSE: IYT ) is the most popular means for investing in transports with approximately $500 million in net assets, followed by SEA at about $90 million in net assets while FAA / PTRP are around the $5 million net asset level.

Disclosure: No positions.

Pixi and beyond. (PALM, rated BUY)

aitebar82 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:20:43 -0000

I came to familiarize myself of Palm upon the announcement of the Palm Pre in January 2009, it was marvelous to see such a unique OS design on a cell phone. I am confident that Palm will continue growth based on the expansion of this OS onto multiple cell phones and network. Starting in January, when the Pre is rumored to launch on Verizon and ATT, and additionally the Pixi launch in November 17th. I believe, these products will enhance Palm's market share against their competitors.

Investing in Waste to Energy (EVX, rated BUY)

Mike Havrilla — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:31:41 -0000

Waste2Energy Holdings, Inc (OTCBB: WTEZE) is a worldwide supplier of proprietary gasification technology designed to convert municipal solid waste, biomass and other solid waste streams traditionally destined for landfill into clean renewable energy. Waste2Energy Holdings, Inc. is a competitor in the rapidly growing worldwide market for waste-to-energy systems.

http://www.proactivenewsroom.com/Blog/bid/29885/Investing-in-...

There is an increasing trend worldwide to move away from landfills and find some purpose for refuse other than burying it. While the Europeans lead this movement , this trend will likely be mirrored in North America as well. While a large priority has been put on minimizing waste and recycling, the conversion of ordinary waste is a new opportunity for green companies to become involved in and profit from. In fact, with the growth that is taking place now, it is becoming its own industry. According to Frost & Sullivan studies in this sector, the waste to energy market in Europe is growing and will continue to do so for at least 10 years. Europe's waste to energy capacity is expected to increase by around 13 million tons. Nearly 100 new plants will come on line by 2012.

According to Sam Hopkins blog of September 24, 2008 , by 2007, with the advent of the green movement, use of biogas climbed to 5,621 MW, a growth of 144% in seven short years, which works out to a compounded annual growth rate of 13.6%. But with constantly improving technology, and a growing interest for using domestic energy, the use of waste to energy facilities is slated to grow another 173% in the next five years as the industry adds another 9,699 MW worth of capacity.

The consumption habits of modern consumer lifestyles are causing a huge worldwide waste problem. Local landfills are becoming harder and harder to expand and maintain as well as very expensive to construct. In fact lots of refuse is now being exported to 3rd world countries. Damage of ecosystems and resources is significant all over the world. Companies like Waste2Energy Holdings are now developing new ways to recycle waste by generating electricity from landfill waste and pollution.

The conversion of waste into energy:

Waste-to-energy (WtE) or energy-from-waste (EfW) is the process of creating energy in the form of electricity or heat from the incineration of waste source. WtE is a form of energy recovery. Most WtE processes produce electricity directly through combustion, or produce a combustible fuel commodity, such as methane, methanol, ethanol or synthetic fuels.
Waste2Energy has a number of systems which are used for converting ordinary trash and refuse into energy. The first one is the Small Batch Oxydation System (sBOS) in which mixed and unsorted waste is place into the hopper at the front of the unit. Once processed, the energy by product is electricity (from heat) and steam (also from heat generated during processing. Below is a graphic of the process with the sBOS.

W2e's sBOSTM is ideal for on-site destruction of facility-generated waste streams from mines, oil fields, military, medical, hospitality, commercial, industrial or other installations. The unit also has optional conversion to intermittent or stored energy.

These units are currently used at a number of locations including: Ronald Reagan Strategic Missile Base, Kwajalein Atoll for mixed and hazmat wastes, Husavik, Iceland-mixed municipal wastes, BP/ARCO – Alaska for drilling camp wastes, Pogo Gold Mine, Philippines for mining camp wastes, Cayman Islands - hospital wastes and Conoco-Philips, in Alaska for-drilling camp wastes.
More information on Waste2Energy’s systems including Continuous Batch Oxidation System (cBOS) and Continuous Oxidation Reactor (CORTM) can be found on their Technologies page at http://www.waste2energy.com/ .

Market Size

According to BCC Research , the following statistics apply to the global Waste to Energy market through 2014:

The global market for WTE technologies was worth $19.9 billion in 2008. This is expected to increase to $26.2 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 6.7%.
Thermal WTE technologies have the largest share of the market, worth $18.5 billion in 2008. This should reach $23.7 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 5.1%.
The biological WTE segment generated $1.4 billion in 2008. This should increase to $2.4 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 11.4%.

Opportunity

Waste2Energy already has the equipment and a global presence. The conversion of waste to energy is becoming increasingly important of waste management programs around the world. The sheer volume of waste is absolutely forcing everyone across the face of the planet to look harder and harder at ways to convert all of this garbage into something we can use instead of sending it somewhere else or putting it into the ground (which is a whole big issue in itself). Environmental and Political pressures are driving waste management toward the conversion of waste into energy which is cost effective and actually provides something in return that we all need- energy!