Some Mormon Stuff

Polygamy in Utah, 1880

2015-08-07T07:21:00.000-07:00

Related Posts: Utah Polygamy and Divorce – 1880 to 1930; Divorce in 1890 Utah: Signs of Polygamy; Marriage in 1890 Utah: Very Normal

In this post I estimate the number of men and women living in polygamy in Utah in 1880 using data from the 1880 census and other sources.

I have estimated that in 1880 there approximately 9,000 persons in polygamous marriages in Utah. About 6,500 wives and 2,500 husbands. This is approximately 25% of married Mormon women and about 13% of married Mormon men. However, the total number could easily be closer to 10,000.

I also conclude that the census data by itself is not sufficient for estimating the number of persons living in polygamy. Other data is required. This conclusion is based on the fact that the married female to married male ratio for Utah from the 1880 and 1900 census’ were outliers. However, in 1890 it was nearly 1.0 (Figure 4), which means that in 1890 nearly all women in polygamous relationships were concealing their marital status, probably to protect their husbands and children. I believe that in the 1880 census nearly two thirds of women in polygamous relationships concealed their marital status.

These results should be qualified with polygamy studies from Utah’s earlier history. It is appears that during the 1860’s quite possibly more than 50% of married LDS women in Utah were polygamous wives.

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Utah Polygamy and Divorce – 1880 to 1930

2015-05-02T09:01:00.003-07:00

Related Posts: Divorce in 1890 Utah: Signs of Polygamy; Polygamy versus Democracy; Edmunds Act (1882); Edmunds-Tucker Act (1887); Idaho Test Oath; Marriage in 1890 Utah: Very Normal

Summary: I promised another post on divorce and I finally have enough data to write about. So here it is. (This just keeps getting more and more interesting.)

I have analyzed census data from 1880, 1890, 1900, 1910, 1920, and 1930. I restricted the analysis to the white, 15 and older population for the states and territories of the lower 48 states.

In 1880 Utah’s female divorce rate was the third highest in the US, only New Mexico and Nevada are higher. From 1880 to about 1910 Utah’s female divorce rate steadily decreases while the rest of the US tends to increase. From 1910 to 1930 Utah’s female divorce rate rapidly increases, following the national trend. The male divorce rate from 1890 to 1930 follows the national trend.

When looking at the difference in percent male and percent female divorce rates we see that in 1880 Utah had the second highest difference in the US, only Nevada is higher. Utah’s over 15 male to female ratio in 1880 was about 1.1 while Nevada’s was almost 2.5. Utah had a population of 143,964 compared to Nevada’s 62,266. From 1890 and 1900 Utah had the highest difference in male and female divorce rates in the United States. By 1910 Utah’s male and female divorce rate difference was the second only to Colorado. By 1920 Utah had the second highest divorce rate difference, only California was higher. By 1930 the difference in Utah’s male-female divorce rate was equal to the US third quartile.

Because the male and female divorce rates for US states and territories are correlated better than 89% two factor plots provide some additional insight. When the female divorce rate is plotted against the male divorce rate Utah stands out from the national trend for 1880, 1890, and 1900. For 1910 and 1920 it stands out a little. By 1930 Utah is well within national trends.

The only explanation I can see for this is polygamy. It appears that polygamy increased Utah’s female divorce rate noticeably above national trends. And this effect lasted for 20 years after the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints officially stopped polygamy in 1890, maybe longer.

The value of this goes beyond academic interest. It can also relate to the gay marriage debate currently going on in the US Supreme Court. If the state can ban polyamorous unions then why not same sex marriage. From this data we can see quite objectively that polygamy increases the female divorce rate. I’m not going to get into that debate now but you can hear the supreme court arguments here and here.

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Divorce in 1890 Utah: Signs of Polygamy

2015-02-20T15:33:00.001-08:00

Related Posts: Utah Polygamy and Divorce – 1880 to 1930; Polygamy versus Democracy; Edmunds Act (1882); Edmunds-Tucker Act (1887); Idaho Test Oath; Marriage in 1890 Utah: Very Normal

Summary: I said this post would be interesting. And it is. The LDS Church officially abandoned polygamy in 1890 due to intense government pressure. The 1890 Census Report contains detailed information on divorce that I believe captures evidence of polygamy in Utah. My previous post analyzed the marriage data (Marriage in 1890 Utah: Very Normal).

Firstly, when talking about divorce in 1890 we are dealing with a very small percentage of the population. The median divorce rate for the US was 0.23%. And it turns out that the overall divorce rate in 1890 in Utah is ordinary, right at the third quartile for US states and territories. However, when you look at divorce by age and sex it becomes much more interesting. Above age 34 Utah has the highest or second highest female divorce rate in the US–from 45 on up only Nevada is higher. But this is interesting because Nevada’s total population was 45,761 compared to Utah’s 207,905. Nevada’s male to female ratio was 1.76 and Utah’s was 1.13. Nevada was a much more difficult place for a woman to live and you would expect a higher divorce rate. But Utah?

More can be said. The male divorce rate for Utah qualifies as ordinary (falls between the first and third quartiles) for all age categories. But if you look at the difference between male and female divorce rates by age then Utah really stands out. The national trend is, overall, downward with male divorces eventually exceeding female divorces. The Utah trend is starkly upward, increasing in nearly a straight line from age 15 to 64. Overall, the female divorce rate far exceeds the male divorce rate. Not only does the divergence between the Utah male and female divorce rates increase with age, it also diverges from the national trend.

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Marriage in 1890 Utah: Very Normal

2015-02-07T10:29:00.004-08:00

Related Posts: Polygamy versus Democracy; Edmunds Act (1882); Edmunds-Tucker Act (1887); Idaho Test Oath; Divorce in 1890 Utah: Signs of Polygamy; Utah Polygamy and Divorce – 1880 to 1930

Summary: I have looked at data for marriage in 1890 Utah found in the US census report, in detail. I spend the last two months (and a good amount of my Christmas break) compiling and analyzing the data. This post will look at marriage. A later post will look at divorce. (See Divorce in 1890 Utah: Signs of Polygamy.)

[Update: I have looked at the married female to married male ratios of Utah from 1880 to 1930. I have found that for 1880 and 1900 Utah is an outlier. For 1890 it is not. This is likely due to the fact that women in polygamous relationships were concealing their relationships during 1890, but not so much in 1880 and 1900. See Figure 4 in Polygamy in Utah, 1880 for plots. This is likely due to the antipolygamy crusade that ramped up during the 1880’s. Therefore, the female marriage data in this post is not accurate. However, there is still lots of useful information in this post.]

The 1890 Census coincides with the LDS Church officially abandoning the practice of polygamy (1890). (See The Manifesto declaring this.) So the Census Record might capture evidence of polygamy, if there is any.

My questions were these. Were more women married in Utah than other states and territories? Where young female marriages occurring in Utah at a much higher rate than the rest of the country? How do male marriages compare? Are there any statistics in which Utah stands out?

Even though Utah allowed girls to marry with parental consent at 12 there is no evidence that under 15 girls were getting married in significant numbers–there were only 2 in Utah. The average for the US (Utah excluded) was 24 and the median was 9. I can’t find any evidence that girls in Utah in any age bracket were marrying at significantly different rates from the other states and territories.

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How are Mormon Beliefs Established?

2014-12-06T08:36:00.000-08:00

Related Posts: Mormons and Caffeinated Soft drinks; The Word of Wisdom; Why I blog; Creation ex nihilo; Faith, Certainty, and Doubt; The First Vision; Are Mormons Brainwashed?

Summary: In my previous post (Are Mormons Brainwashed?) I pointed out that Mormonism is not driven by systematic theology. I use the term in a very narrow sense. I take it to mean a precisely defined, unified system usually involving philosophical methods and authoritative sources like scripture. Consequently, if one element is changed, or expressed differently, then the other elements must be altered to maintain consistency. The theologian’s job is to iron out the inconsistencies that arise.

This level of precision is behind most religious schisms. At some point someone interpreted the bible differently and concluded the existing tradition was flawed. To a Mormon many of the differences seem trivial, but to those involved, the very truth, and ultimately salvation, is at stake. So they form a new church claiming it is more correct.

Mormonism did not come about through doctrinal schism. Our tradition goes back to the First Vision (The First Vision); our doctrines are based on revelations given to the prophets. And we accept this. There are no professional theologians in the Mormon tradition who work out inconsistencies, define terms, and make the belief system uniform. The famous book by Bruce R. McConkie is title Mormon Doctrine, not Mormon Theology.

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Are Mormons Brainwashed?

2014-11-21T10:24:00.000-08:00

Related Posts: Why I blog; Creation ex nihilo; How are Mormon Beliefs Established?; Faith, Certainty, and Doubt

Are Mormons free to believe what they want? Are we taught to lay aside common sense? Are Mormons brainwashed?

This is a sticky subject. It’s a truism that each of us is a captive of our culture in which we grew up, whether US, Mexican, Japanese, Indian, German, Egyptian, etc. And we must be careful when saying other people are brainwashed. Maybe it’s the brainwashed people that accuse others of being brainwashed? Am I brainwashed? Are you?

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Is LDS (Mormon) Church Growth Decelerating?

2014-10-13T08:34:00.001-07:00

Related Posts: Growth of the Church (2007)

Summary: Is the growth of the church decelerating? I would have to say no. First, the acceleration the church experienced from 1950 to 1990 was small. Only 6,290 persons per year^2. So a change is not too surprising. From 1991 to 2013 there appears to be a very small deceleration, but this can be said with only 63% confidence. In other words, there is a 37% chance the apparent deceleration is not real. Otherwise, the growth rate is constant.

If we look at convert baptisms the number in 2013 is about 8,500 higher than in 1992. And for the last eight years has been fairly constant at about 275,000 per year. Non-convert baptisms is holding steady at 46,000 persons per year.

Baptisms per missionary have decreased due to a fairly constant conversion rate combined with a dramatic increase in missionary force.
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