OKLAHOMA CITY – Optimistic describes what most Oklahoma bankers feel about the state’s economic condition and many rate their local economies stronger than that of the state, according to a recent survey. Gambling and pay-day lenders had a direct impact on negative indicators such as NSF charges and past-due loans, bankers reported, with rural communities feeling the greatest consequences from those factors.

The scientific survey of 500 Oklahoma bank managers was conducted by SoonerPoll.com, an Oklahoma public opinion research firm and commissioned by the Oklahoma Bankers Association (OBA). The survey had a margin of error of 3.35%.

Complete survey presentation

Roger Beverage, OBA President & CEO, SoonerPoll CEO Bill Shapard, Gary Simpson, OSU Professor and OBA Chair of Commercial Bank Management and Chad Wilkerson, Vice President, Branch Executive, & Economist of the Oklahoma City Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and State Banking Commissioner, Mick Thompson presented the results of the survey at a press conference at the OBA headquarters on Thursday.

According to results, bankers slightly believe commercial loan demand will exceed residential loan demand. “This surprised me a bit since nationally residential loan demand remains much weaker than commercial loan demand,” said Wilkerson. “Regardless, the findings overall are quite positive and suggestive of a still solid economy.”

With regard to short term interest rates, bankers 2 to 1 believe short term interest rates will go down then go up, still less than half believe short term interest rates will stay the same in the next six months. “The Oklahoma Econometric Model assumes that the Fed will lower rates in the second half of 2007 as inflationary pressures ease some,” said Simpson, adding “so we should see a small decrease in short term rates.”

“For banks, it means they’re going to have to work harder for customer’s business,” said Beverage, “and that’s good for Oklahomans.”

Adverse impact from increased gambling activity has caused a 1-10 percent increase in NSF and past-due loans for a majority of Oklahoma bankers, the survey indicates, and rural communities appear to be much more vulnerable.

Almost 80 percent of rural bankers reported an increase in NSF charges as a direct result of gambling. Just over half of urban bankers said gambling had caused NSF charges to increase. A similar trend was reported regarding late payments and past due loans, with 67.5 percent of rural and 45.6 percent of urban bankers reporting increases caused by gambling.

Problems with predatory lenders such as payday operators are significant in most Oklahoma communities as well, bankers said.  A majority of bankers reported payday lender problems with as much as 2.5 percent of their customers. Again, a heavier impact was reported by rural bankers, with 63.7 percent reporting payday lender problems, compared to 48.3 percent of urban bankers.

Other negative economic factors about which bankers were asked include past due loans and overvalued real estate. According to survey results, most believe the former will stay the same. Just over 40 percent of bankers said they were “somewhat concerned” about the latter, with another 34 percent only “slightly concerned.”

Some of the poll’s other findings include:

• A majority of bankers foresee little change in long-term interest rates over the next six months. Almost half said the same about short-term interest rates.
• More bankers are seeing more demand in DDA accounts than CDs or other savings products.
• Just over half of bankers believe real estate prices will remain constant in 2007.
• Most of the state’s bankers believe commercial loan demand will slightly exceed residential loan demand over the next six months, with a stronger increase in the former predicted by urban bankers.

The survey also asked bankers to identify the entities from which they felt the most competition for customers. Other banks in the community led credit unions and other financial institutions as the strongest competitors to Oklahoma banks. Credit unions were listed as the top or second most significant competition by just under half of all bankers surveyed. Unlike banks, credit unions have a competitive advantage as they do not pay federal income taxes and are not subject to community reinvestment consequences.

While the majority of bankers believe both their local economy and that of the state will stay about the same, those who predicted growth believe more will take place close to home. Both the state and local economies were rated ‘good’ by most bankers, and bankers were more than twice as likely to rate their local economy as ‘excellent’ compared to the state’s.

The scientific survey of 527 likely Oklahoma voters was conducted by SoonerPoll.com, an Oklahoma public opinion research firm, and commissioned by First Class Education of Oklahoma.  The poll had a margin of error of ±4.27%.

Eighty-one percent (81%) said it was very important that more of our tax dollars reach the classroom, while another 11.5 percent said it was somewhat important. Just 5.7 percent said it was somewhat or very unimportant.

“Oklahoma voters indicated overwhelming support for the 65% Solution,” said Bill Shapard, SoonerPoll’s CEO. “The results of the poll clearly signify that voters in our state believe getting more of our education dollars into the classroom will have a direct educational benefit for our schoolchildren.”

The measure, if approved by the voters, would increase the amount of taxpayer-supported educational funding spent on classroom instruction to 65 percent. It defines classroom instruction as expenditures directly related to the classroom, including teacher salaries, books, activities, special education instruction, tutors, classroom computers and supplies, libraries and activities such as field trips, athletics, arts, music and sports.  Currently, only 58 cents from every education tax dollar reaches the classroom.

More than three quarters of all respondents to the poll indicated some degree of support for the measure should it appear on the November ballot, with more than half stating they would definitely support it. Only 7.8 percent of respondents said they would oppose the initiative.

Party affiliation did not appear to affect the likelihood of respondents to support the initiative, with 81.9 percent of Republicans, 82.8 percent of Democrats and 87.8 percent of Independents expressing support for the ballot initiative.   Support for the measure was slightly stronger among women voters than men (57% to 50%), and strong among all age groups, ethnic classifications, and income levels.  A majority of liberals, moderates, conservatives, also expressed strong support for the proposal.

Another clear majority, 84 percent, said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the requirement that at least 65 percent of Oklahoma’s education dollars be spent on classroom instruction. From one end of the ideological spectrum to the other, liberal to conservative, Oklahomans overwhelmingly were more likely to support a candidate supporting the state question.

The survey was conducted of likely voters by live interviewers over the telephone August 29-31, 2006 from SoonerPoll’s Oklahoma City call center.  Potential respondents were randomly selected using computerized calculations and screened as to whether they planned to vote in the November election.  Keith Gaddie, PhD assisted with the analysis of the final data.

SoonerPoll.com, a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 510 Likely Oklahoma voters just over the weekend, May 20-21.  The poll’s margin of error was 4.3%.

Complete toplines and crosstabs

When likely Oklahoma voters were asked which plan they supported of the two plans on the table, 58% supported the bi-partisan Henry/Hiett plan over the Senate Democrat proposal with 37% support.  4.7% were undecided.  In a breakdown by party affiliation, 45% of Democrats supported the House Republican and Governor Henry plan and 75% of Republicans.

Respondents believed teacher pay (40%) and cutting taxes (35%) were the top two priorities in how the state should spend the tax receipt surplus, which is the largest in state history.  All other mentioned proposals such as increased state spending (1.8%), a state employee pay raise (8.6%), and increasing funding for higher education (9.2%) were all in the single digits.

When asked how much should be returned to taxpayers after the state meets all its current financial obligations, more than half of respondents, 56%, wanted all of at least half of the budget surplus returned to taxpayers, which is more than either plan contains.

Increased government spending or new spending was not popular among those polled.  Only 29.6% agreed that new or increased government spending was needed.  Slightly more favored increasing funding for higher education and raising the pay of state employees, but none received a major of likely voters’ support.

Men were more likely to favor cutting taxes (42%) than women (30%), which women favored raising teacher salaries (46%) than men respondents (33.6%).

Not surprisingly, the more conservative the poll respondent was, the more likely they supported the Henry/Hiett plan, and accordingly the more liberal the respondent, the more likely they supported the Senate Democrat plan.

SoonerPoll.com, a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 800 5th Congressional district likely Republican and Democratic voters May 1-4 for News9 (KWTV) in Oklahoma City.  The margin of error was 3.5%.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents felt that high gas prices were creating a hardship on their household, as gas prices in Oklahoma have steadily risen in recent months.  Yet, when asked for their thoughts on why gas prices have gone up, respondents differed much more.

Oil company price gouging led with 39% of respondents, followed by global market factors (18%), and political instability in oil-producing countries (15%).  Another 18% were nearly spilt over either the President’s energy policies (9.4%) or Congress’ energy policies (8.8%) as the reason for high gas prices.

“While the price of gas is really set by the futures market, I was amazed to find that a plurality of voters living in an oil-producing state cite oil company price gouging as the top reason,” said Bill Shapard, SoonerPoll’s CEO.  “Political rhetoric is showing some influence on these numbers.”

Democrat respondents were more likely to point to oil company price gouging (44%) as were Republicans (33%), yet both selected price gouging as their top reason for high gas prices.

Republican respondents were roughly twice as likely than Democrats to blame Congress than the President, while Democrats just the opposite.

SoonerPoll’s exclusive poll for News9 included a look at likely voters’ opinion on the involvement of third-party groups in the political process. Outside groups were very active in the 2004 U.S. Senate race in Oklahoma, and it has been suggested they may also be involved in the selection of a new U.S. Representative in the 5th congressional district.

Of poll respondents, 44.6% said they would listen to what outside interest groups have to say, but it would have no impact on their support for a candidate; another 19% would take into consideration what outside interest groups have to say about the candidates. 30% told our poll they did not like outside interest group involvement and would not vote a candidate being supported by one.

As for political endorsements, 34% of poll respondents would take into consideration what other political leaders or well-known individuals have to say with their endorsement of a particular candidate.  Yet, 61% said political endorsements would have no impact on them when deciding their vote.

No meaningful differences were observed in the opinions between Republicans or Democrats with regard to outside interest group involvement or political endorsements.

SoonerPoll.com, a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 400 5th Congressional district likely Republican voters May 1-4th for News9 (KWTV) in Oklahoma City.  The margin of error was 4.9%.

Further analysis of the data presents a difficult challenge for Mayor Cornett should he decide to enter the race.  A breakdown of poll participants by their self-described political ideology shows that the more conservative the voter, the more likely they were to support Fallin; for Cornett, the more the moderate or liberal the voter, the more likely they were to support the Oklahoma City mayor.

“The race right now is being dominated by name identification,” said Bill Shapard, SoonerPoll’s CEO.  “Cornett’s possible entry into the congressional race may be short-lived with a severe disadvantage in fundraising compared to the other candidates as well as a lack of appeal to the more conservative base of the Republican Party.”

Shapard noted that additional analysis of those undecided in the match-up were 42.2% identified as ‘very conservative’ and another 38.8% as ‘somewhat conservative.’

Without Cornett in the race, the results for all the candidates were: Mary Fallin (49.5%), Denise Bode (8.3%), Kevin Calvey (5.5%), Fred Morgan (3.5%), with 33.3% undecided.

With Cornett in the race, the results were: Fallin (30.5%), Cornett (28.8%), Denise Bode (4.3%), Kevin Calvey (4%), Fred Morgan (2.5%), with 30% undecided.

Top issues for Republican voters were reforming immigration, reducing government spending and promoting Christian values.  47% of those polled believed the candidate’s view on immigration was ‘very important,’ and another 36.1% responded ‘somewhat important’ when deciding on who they would vote for in the congressional race.

Prices have increased significantly since the poll was conducted Sunday, but even then 68 percent of Oklahomans said they had already changed their driving habits.

Of those who had not, 37 percent said they would change their habits if gas reached $3 a gallon.

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Most other Oklahomans are a bit more optimistic

The most pessimism about the Oklahoma economy comes from the Tulsa area, which this year lagged behind the rest of the state in job growth, according to a statewide survey.

The latest Oklahoma Poll found Sooners as a whole mostly upbeat about the state’s economic picture, but Tulsans in general didn’t share in the optimism.

The survey, conducted of 750 registered voters statewide June 23-27 by Oklahoma City-based SoonerPoll.com, found that one-fourth of Oklahomans think the state economy is very or reasonably healthy.

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Nearly two-thirds say they aren’t interested, the Oklahoma Poll indicates

With the scheduled startup only a few months away, more than four out of every 10 Oklahomans say they are ready to begin scratching lottery tickets.

Forty-two percent participating in the latest Oklahoma Poll said they are ready to welcome the new gaming opportunity by periodically buying lottery tickets.

Fifty-five percent said they would spend their money elsewhere, and only 3 percent said they were undecided.

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Republicans are portrayed as being far to the right of liberals, and Democrats on the left of conservatives, but that mixture has a common denominator: poultry waste.

 That’s according to the latest Oklahoma Poll conducted June 23-27 of 750 registered voters statewide.

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Proposal faces difficult future, poll indicates

Already hit by rising gasoline prices this year, Oklahomans aren’t in the mood for a fuel tax increase.

A statewide Oklahoma Poll shows that supporters of an increase have their work cut out for them before Oklahomans vote up or down on the tax increase issue Sept. 13.

Voters will decide the fate of State Question 723, which would gradually increase the gasoline tax by 5 cents and the diesel tax by 8 cents, bringing both to 22 cents per gallon within four years to get extra funds for roads and bridges.

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