These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis continues to scramble North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Sizable month-to-month fluctuations should not obscure the fact that, since February, employers collectively have eliminated 325,700 payroll jobs, with all of the losses originating in the private sector. Compared to February, the state has 7.1 percent fewer jobs.”

In July 2020, employers added 57,200 more payroll jobs than they cut, as firms continued to re-open following the relaxation of various stay-at-home orders. For instance, the number of payroll positions tied to accommodation & food service establishments rose by 8,500 (+2.2 percent). Even with that gain, the sector is almost 30 percent smaller than it was in February.

Collectively, public-sector employers added 43,400 more jobs than they cut in July (+6.2 percent), with virtually all of the job creation occurring among local governments. The private sector, in contrast, netted 13,800 payroll positions (+0.4 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most positions (+8,500, +2.2 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+4,800, +0.8 percent) and the trade, transportation & utilities sector (+3,600, + 0.4 percent). Those gains were offset by net losses in the manufacturing sector (-5,600, -1.3 percent) and the other services sector (-1,000, -0.6 percent).

“The COVID-19 crisis ended the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “Since February, the state has given back 72 percent of all the job growth that occurred in North Carolina between late 2007 and early 2020. For more perspective, consider how, since February, the state has lost about the same number of jobs as it did at the worst part of the last recession. North Carolina has experienced in five months job losses that took a bit more than two years to occur in a downturn widely regarded as being horrific.”

The July household survey offered further evidence of a wildly gyrating labor market. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent from the 7.5 percent rate logged in June. Month-over-month, the number of unemployed persons rose by 62,712 (+17.6 percent), rising to 419,812 from 357,100. At the same time, the number of people in the labor force rose by some 135,000 people in July, which suggests that more workers have returned to work or resumed looking for work.

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has more than doubled, rising to 419,812 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate has more than doubled, jumping to 8.5 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 192,505 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.9 million from 5.1 million (-3.8 percent). In July, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force was 58.9 percent, down from 61.6 percent in February.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.5 million from 4.9 million since February. In July, only 53.9 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, up from June’s rate of 53.1 percent, but down sharply from February’s rate of 59.4 percent.

“The monthly employment data, while important, are lagging well behind actual economic and public health facts on the ground,” cautioned Quinterno. “The monthly employment report provides a snapshot of conditions in mid-July, but the most recent weekly unemployment insurance claims report showed that North Carolina was paying or processing 228,244 claims for regular unemployment insurance benefits, along with 188,906 claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which extends insurance to individuals who are otherwise ineligible. Another 208,000 claims were filed for other programs, primarily Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which provides benefits to those who have exhausted their regular benefits. All of this suggests that unemployment remains a problem of crisis proportions.”

Also, the COVID-19 crisis has worsened since the middle of July. Based on one analysis of public health data, the total number of confirmed cases in North Carolina has almost doubled since July 12, rising to 149,900 confirmed cases from 85,700. This has led the state to continue its go-slow approach to re-opening while causing some local governments to impose new restrictions on economic activities or to extend existing restrictions. The impact of these developments is not reflected in the July employment report, nor is the fallout in university communities where campuses opened only to quickly close and return to online operations.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “While job growth has trended up in recent months, the state has lost about as many jobs as it did at the worst part of the Great Recession. Many of the recent gains are tenuous and could be erased by deteriorating public health conditions. By any measure, North Carolina is mired in a severe recession.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “Conditions may very well worsen over the fall if new lockdowns prove necessary, if Congress fails to re-authorize various forms of federal aid like enhanced unemployment insurance and economic impact payments, and if public-sector employers slash their payrolls and spending in response to collapsing tax revenues.”

“State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. Action is needed on every front sooner rather than later.”

The post NC’s Labor Market Swung Wildly in July first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis has scrambled North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Sizable month-to-month fluctuations should not mask the fact that, since February, employers collectively have eliminated 377,300 payroll jobs, with 89.5 percent of the losses originating in the private sector. Compared to a year ago, the state has 7.4 percent fewer jobs.”

In June 2020, employers added 173,200 more payroll jobs than they cut as shuttered firms re-opened following the relaxation of various stay-at-home orders. For instance, the number of payroll positions tied to accommodation & food service establishments rose by 55,900 (+20.6 percent), while the number of positions in retail trade establishments rose by 18,000 (-4 percent).

Collectively, private-sector employers added 152,400 more payroll jobs than they cut in June (+4.5 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most positions (+68,900, +22.3 percent), followed by the trade, transportation & utilities sector (+22,300, + 2.8 percent); the other services sector (+19,600, +14.2 percent); and the education and health services sector (+18,900, +3.3 percent). Even with these gains North Carolina had 306,200 fewer private-sector jobs (-8 percent) than it did a year ago.

“The COVID-19 crisis ended to the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “Since February, the state has given back about almost half of the net job growth logged during the decade-long expansion. For even more perspective, consider how in June 2020, North Carolina had just 303,000 more jobs than it did in June 2000.”

The June household survey offered further evidence of a scrambled labor market. Last month, the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent from the 12.8 percent rate logged in May. Month-over-month, the number of unemployed persons fell by 252,000 (-40.9 percent), dropping to 363,465 from 615,512. Note, however, that 24,549 people left the labor force entirely last month. If those individuals were counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been 8.1 percent.  

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has doubled, rising to 363,465 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate more than doubled, jumping to 7.6 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 322,976 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.8 million from 5.1 million (-6.3 percent). In June, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force was 57.4 percent, down from 61.6 percent in February.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.4 million from 4.9 million since February. In June, only 53.1 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, up from May’s rate of 50.4 percent, but down sharply from February’s rate of 59.4 percent.

“The monthly employment data, while important, are lagging well behind actual economic and public health facts on the ground,” cautioned Quinterno. “The monthly employment report provides a snapshot of conditions in mid-June, but the most recent weekly unemployment insurance claims report showed that North Carolina was paying or processing 385,631 claims for regular unemployment insurance benefits, along with 237,113 claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which extends insurance to individuals who are otherwise ineligible. This suggests that unemployment remains a serious problem for hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians.”

Also, the COVID-19 crisis has worsened since the middle of June. Based on one analysis of public health data, the total number of confirmed cases in North Carolina has more than doubled since June 12, rising to 95,500 confirmed cases from 41,200. This has led the state to slow the pace of re-opening while causing some local governments to impose new restrictions on economic activities. The impact of these developments is not reflected in the June employment report.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “While job growth accelerated in June following the relaxation of various state and local stay-at-home orders, those gains are tenuous and could be erased by deteriorating public health conditions. Even with those gains, labor market conditions remain much worse than they were at the start of the year.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “Conditions may very well worsen over the summer if new lockdowns prove necessary, if Congress permits various forms of federal aid like enhanced unemployment insurance and the Paycheck Protection program to expire, and if public-sector employers slash their payrolls and spending in response to collapsing tax revenues.”

“State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. Action is needed sooner rather than later.”

The post North Carolina’s Labor Market Continues Its Wild Ride first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

CHAPEL HILL, NC (June 19, 2020) – In May, employers in North Carolina collectively added 67,100 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.7 percent), with net gains in the private sector offset by net losses in the public sector. The May household survey, meanwhile, recorded a large increase in the number of unemployed North Carolinians. The state unemployment rate was 12.9 percent, which was tied with the April 2020 rate for the highest logged in any month since 1976.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis has devastated North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Since February, employers collectively have eliminated 548,700 payroll jobs, with 89 percent of the losses originating in the private sector. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the last time North Carolina had so few payroll jobs was in August 2013.”

In May 2020, employers added 67,100 more payroll jobs than they cut as shuttered firms re-opened following the relaxation of various state and local stay-at-home orders. For instance, the number of payroll positions tied to food service and drinking establishments rose by 40,100 (+19.1 percent).

Collectively, private-sector employers added 102,700 more payroll jobs than they cut in May (+3.1 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most positions (+44,800, +16.8 percent), followed by the trade, transportation & utilities sector (+17,200, + 2.2 percent) and the education and health services sector (+16,700, +3 percent). The net increase in that sector was due to the re-opening of establishments offering ambulatory health care services.

More than a third of the private-sector gain, however, was erased by net reductions by public-sector employers, which collectively cut 35,600 more jobs than they added (-5 percent). Public-sector losses were driven overwhelmingly by net cuts in state and local educational employment.

“The COVID-19 crisis ended to the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “Since February, the state has given back about 70 percent of the net job growth logged during the decade-long expansion. For further perspective, consider how in May 2020, North Carolina had just 150,400 more jobs than it did in May 2000.”

The May household survey offered further evidence of a labor market in crisis. Last month, the unemployment rate reached 12.9 percent, which was the same rate posted in April following data revisions. A monthly rate of 12.9 percent is the highest rate recorded in North Carolina in the history of the modern data series, which dates to 1976. Last month, 621,713 North Carolinians were unemployed, which also was the highest figure logged in any month since 1976.  

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has more than tripled, rising to 621,713 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate also has more than tripled, jumping to 12.9 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 293,000 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.8 million from 5.1 million. In May, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force was 57.9 percent. While up from April, the state’s labor force participation rate is hovering near the lowest value posted since 1976.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.2 million from 4.9 million since February. In May, only 50.4 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, up from April’s rate of 49.4 percent, which was the lowest monthly value logged since 1976.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “While job growth ticked up in May following the relaxation of various state and local stay-at-home orders, record numbers of people in North Carolina are jobless and are unlikely to return to work anytime soon. In fact, the numbers likely will worsen over the summer if various forms of federal aid like enhanced unemployment insurance and the Paycheck Protection program expire and if public-sector employers slash their payrolls and spending in response to collapsing tax revenues.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. Action is needed sooner rather than later.”

The post North Carolina’s Labor Market Still in Crisis in May first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

In the benefit week ending on March 7, 2020 (filing week ending March 14), the last one before the onset of the COVID-19 recession, the Division of Employment Security received 3,533 initial claims for unemployment insurance compensation. The next week, the number of claims jumped to 94,083, and ever since then, the state has received an average of 92,712 new claims each week, based on data reported to the US Department of Labor (USDOL).

In recent weeks, observers have asked a seemingly simple question: How many people in North Carolina are receiving unemployment insurance? Answering that question, however, is not so simple due to the idiosyncratic ways in which unemployment insurance data are tabulated and reported, the crushing volume of claims filed, and the rapid establishment by the US Congress of three supplemental emergency programs.

As of the benefit week ending on May 23 (filing week ending May 30), the most recent with data, 815,889 people in North Carolina either i) were receiving unemployment insurance or ii) had applied recently for benefits and were waiting to receive them.

Put differently, 18 of every 100 workers in North Carolina were receiving or were waiting to receive unemployment insurance compensation at the end of May

To arrive at this estimate, South by North Strategies, Ltd. adapted a methodology from the Economic Policy Institute for use with state-specific data (not seasonally adjusted) reported weekly by USDOL. (Note: these figures differ from the daily ones posted by the NC Department of Commerce; those numbers cover a longer time span and have not been processed yet to meet federal reporting standards.)

What Is Unemployment Insurance?

Established in 1935, unemployment insurance is a federal-state partnership that shields workers from the risk of losing a job through no fault of their own by replacing a portion of lost wages. While the federal government establishes the general framework, states have broad latitude when it comes to levying the payroll taxes that fund normal benefits, establishing monetary and non-monetary eligibility criteria, & setting benefit amounts. All of North Carolina’s employment security laws are found in Chapter 96 of the General Statutes.

Which Insurance Programs Currently Exist?

In North Carolina, eligible claimants of regular state-funded insurance can receive no more than $350/week in benefits, with the exact amount determined by a formula linked to the person’s earnings history. Currently, a claimant can receive insurance for no more than 12 weeks, which is the shortest maximum duration periods in the country (tied with FL).

As part of the CARES Act, Congress established three temporary, supplemental insurance programs funded fully by the federal government:

• Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Compensation (PUC): This program adds an extra $600/week to the regular state-funded benefits received by claimants. The program began on March 29 and is set to expire on July 31.
• Pandemic Unemployment Unemployment Compensation (PEUC): This program provides claimants who exhaust their regular state-funded benefits with an additional 13 weeks of insurance payments. The program runs through Dec. 31, and for weeks ending on or behalf July 31, claimants also receive PUC.
• Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA): This program provides unemployment insurance benefits to individuals normally ineligible for regular state-funded benefits, such as independent contractors, the self employed, and “gig” workers. The program runs through Dec. 31, and for weeks ending before July 31, claimants also receive PUC. They also may be eligible for PEUC.

Lastly, an existing feature of federal and state unemployment insurance law is the Extended Benefits (EB) program. In states experiencing high unemployment, individuals who have exhausted their regular state benefits may receive up to 13 more weeks of benefits (in some cases, 20 weeks). Normally, the program’s costs are split between the federal government and the states, but currently, the federal government is paying all the costs. North Carolina triggered “on” to the program as of May 17.

How Many People in North Carolina Are Receiving Benefits?

In recent weeks, observers and journalists have attempted to estimate how many people in North Carolina are receiving benefits by looking at the number of claims reported each week by the state to the US Department of Labor. That approach is problematic for several reasons, including the fact that the top-line number only shows claims for regular state-funded claims and excludes claims related to the PUA and PEUC programs. At the other end of the range, there may be double-counting of people if someone applied for both regular benefits and PUA, either by mistake or before the state stood up PUA processing.

Focusing instead on the number of people who are receiving benefits or have applied and are waiting for a benefit determination can better isolate the number of people in North Carolina turning to the unemployment insurance system. Applying the methodology noted above to USDOL claims data (not seasonally adjusted) for the benefit week ending on May 23 (meaning claims were filed in the week of May 30) yields the following estimates:

• 543,011 North Carolinians were receiving regular state-funded benefits as of May 23. (USDOL calls these “continuing claims.”)
• 80,602 North Carolinians had filed for regular state-funded benefits and were awaiting benefit determinations as of May 23. (USDOL calls these “initial claims.”)
• 72,422 North Carolinians were receiving PUA benefits as of May 23. (Continuing claims)
• 119,854 North Carolinians had filed for PUA benefits and were awaiting benefit determinations as of May 23. (Initial claims.)
• No claims (initial or continuing) were reported for PEUC, EB or certain other smaller programs as of May 23.

When added together, some 815,889 people in North Carolina either i) were receiving unemployment insurance or ii) had applied recently for benefits and were waiting to receive them as of May 23, the last week with data. The regular state program was serving 76 percent of those people, with PUA serving 24 percent. (Note that the high number of PUA claims relative to the number of regular claims illustrates just how many people currently are left out of the regular state-funded insurance program.)

Even more importantly, 75 of every 100 claims for regular state-funded benefits and PUA were in paid status as of May 23.

How Can Those Numbers Be Contextualized?

To place the proceeding estimate in useful context, consider how the state’s labor force (not seasonally adjusted) was estimated at 4,675,542 people in April, the last month with data from the NC Department of Commerce. The 815,889 people in North Carolina either receiving unemployment insurance or waiting for an application to be processed equaled 18 percent of the state’s labor force.

Put differently, approximately 18 of every 100 workers in the state were drawing or were waiting to draw unemployment insurance benefits as of the end of May.

For additional context, consider that the City of Charlotte, which was North Carolina’s most populous municipality as of 2018, had some 853,000 residents. If all the people drawing or waiting to draw unemployment insurance in North Carolina as of May 23 were to gather in one place, they would form a city almost as large as Charlotte and one larger than any other city in the state.

Who Is Receiving Unemployment Insurance?

Although the weekly claims report released by USDOL contains no information on the demographic characteristics of claimants, other data tabulated by the North Carolina Department of Commerce offer insights.

In April, the last month with complete data, 547,212 people in North Carolina filed continuing claims. Women accounted for 58 percent of the total, men 42 percent. In terms of race, 61 of every 100 continuing claimants identified as white, 25 of every 100 as African American. In total, 27 percent of continuing claimants were between the ages of 25-34, and altogether, 40 percent of claimants were between the ages of 16 and 34.

In terms of industry, two thirds of all continuing claims were linked to the following four sectors: 23 percent to the leisure and hospitality sector; 16 percent to the trade, transportation and utilities sector (which includes retail trade); 14 percent to the education and health services sector; and 14 percent to manufacturing.

What Financial Impact Is Unemployment Insurance Having?

Although the weekly claims report from USDOL contains no financial data, the financial support provided by unemployment insurance currently is serving as a lifeline for more than 800,000 North Carolinians. That income replacement, in turn, allows those beneficiaries to maintain their spending on essential goods and services like groceries.

According to the North Carolina Department of Commerce, the state paid out 1.7 million weeks of continuing benefits in April. If each week of benefits received the $600/week PUC supplement, that one program alone would have placed $1 billion in the hands of North Carolina workers.

Meanwhile, if each of those 1.7 million weeks in continuing benefits was for the average state-funded weekly benefit of $270, which is the most recent figure available, then that program would have boosted the resources available to unemployed North Carolinians by $459 million. (Note that actual weekly benefit amounts vary by earnings, with lower-paid workers receiving less than higher-paid workers, up to the statewide benefit cap of $350/week. )

While the available numbers for April do not break out PUA benefits, North Carolina did not start processing such claims until the end of the month, which suggests that the financial impact of that program only will begin to appear meaningfully when the May data are released.

Take together, these admittedly back-of-the-envelope financial estimates point to the importance of extended unemployment insurance benefits to people across the state. The funds, especially the PUC supplement of $600/week, are providing financial support to households across the state, which is allowing them to continue to support local economies. Absent those funds, the recession stemming from the COVID-19 crisis would be worse, with joblessness being even more pronounced than the crisis levels it already has reached. ##

The post How Many Tar Heels Are Receiving Unemployment Insurance? first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis has had a devastating impact on North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Last month, employers collectively eliminated 571,000 payroll jobs, which was the greatest contraction recorded in any month since 1990. Since February, 13 of every 100 payroll jobs in the state simply have disappeared.”

In April 2020, North Carolina employers cut 571,000 more payroll jobs than they added (-12.5 percent), with the private-sector responsible for 95 percent of the net loss. Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector shed the most positions (-249,800, -48.8 percent), followed by the education and health services sector (-63,200, -10.2 percent); the trade, transportation & utilities sector (-63,200, -7.5 percent); the professional and business services sector (-66,700, -8.6 percent); and the manufacturing sector (-51,200, -10.8 percent.) And government payrolls contracted by 26,000 positions (-3.5 percent), due primarily to the loss of 20,500 local government jobs (-4.5 percent).

“The onset of the coronavirus crisis ended the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “During that decade of steady, if insufficient, job growth, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina rose by 20 percent, climbing to 4.6 million from 3.8 million. Since February, the state has given back about 80 percent of that net job growth, with even more losses likely to occur in coming months.”

The April household survey provided further evidence of a labor market that has fallen into crisis. Last month, the unemployment rate soared to 12.2 percent, which was the highest monthly rate recorded in North Carolina in the history of the modern data series, which dates to 1976. Last month, 573,188 North Carolinians were unemployed, which also was the highest figure logged in any month since 1976.

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has more than tripled, rising to 573,118 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate also has more than tripled, jumping to 12.2 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 429,000 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.7 million from 5.1 million. The last time the labor force was so small was in mid-2014. In April, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force dropped to 56.3 percent, the lowest monthly figure ever posted since 1976.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.1 million from 4.9 million since February. The last time so few people were employed was in early 2010. In April, only 49.4 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, which was the lowest monthly value ever logged since 1976.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “Large numbers of North Carolinians have lost work through no fault of their own, and the numbers are apt to rise in coming months. No communities or populations will be spared, although some people and places will suffer much, much more than others absent help.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. An essential part of any response should be the provision of meaningful aid to state and local governments to prevent the employment crisis from spilling into the public sector and causing both direct job losses and losses tied to the termination of contracts with private-sector vendors in response to budget cuts.”

The post North Carolina’s Unemployment Rate Soars to 12.2 Percent in April first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

RALEIGH, NC (October 10, 2018) – Every $1 in spending on community action programs in North Carolina generates more than $2 in additional economic output. If not for the community action funding provided annually under the federal Community Services Block Grant Act, the state would have a smaller economy, fewer jobs, and fewer tax dollars to support public services.

These findings come from a new economic impact study commissioned by the North Carolina Community Action Association, Inc., a nonprofit membership organization that represents the state’s 34 local community action agencies. The study was developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research consultancy specializing in economic and social policy.

“North Carolina’s community action network exists to help individual men and women transcend poverty,” said Sharon Goodson, Executive Director of the North Carolina Community Action Association. “Community action agencies provide significant—though significantly overlooked—positive impacts on the overall economy of North Carolina.”

In 2016, North Carolina’s community action agencies expended some $20 million in federal resources provided under the Community Services Block Grant Act, the nation’s only program focused exclusively on reducing poverty in a comprehensive manner. Moreover, local agencies used their modest federal grants to leverage an additional $245 million in public and private resources to support anti-poverty initiatives in all 100 counties.

“The funds spent on community action programs in North Carolina not only ameliorate poverty, but they also enhance the state’s economy, as measured by economic output, employment, labor income, and tax receipts,” said John Quinterno, Principal of South by North Strategies who coordinated the development of the economic impact study.

The study considered two scenarios: a conservative one that analyzed only the federal funds granted to the state under the Community Services Block Grant Act and a more expansive one that included leveraged funds and certain program outcomes. Key findings include the following:

• Community Services Block Grant funding, when combined with certain direct program outcomes, generates $43 million in additional statewide economic output annually; when leveraged funds are included, statewide economic output rises by $450 million. In short, every $1 in program spending sparks more than $2 in added economic output.
• Community Services Block Grant funding, when combined with certain direct program outcomes, supports a total of 415 jobs across all industry sectors; when leveraged funds are included, a total of 5,123 jobs are supported through funding for community action.
• Community Services Block Grant funding, when combined with certain direct program outcomes, produces an estimated $16 million annually in additional labor income; when leveraged funds are included, community action resources boost labor income in North Carolina by $195 million annually.
• Community Services Block Grant funding, when combined with certain direct program outcomes, yields an estimated $2 million annually in additional state and local tax revenues; when leveraged funds are included, community action resources expand state and local tax collections by $23 million per year.

“This study shows the powerful extent to which community action works for North Carolina,” said Dr. Landon Mason, President of the North Carolina Community Action Association and Executive Director of the Economic Improvement Council, Inc. in Edenton.

“If not for its community action network,” added Dr. Mason, “North Carolina would have a smaller economy that offers fewer job opportunities, reduced earnings, and fewer tax receipts to support vital public services—all while tens of thousands of low-income residents would be left to confront poverty on their own.”

Click here to access the full report.

The post Community Action Programs Boost NC’s Economy first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“So far, 2018 is shaping up to be the best year for payroll job growth in North Carolina since the start of the recovery,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “North Carolina’s top-level labor market indicators point to an economy that is creating jobs and reducing unemployment. Viewed in isolation, these indicators paint a picture of a labor market that is performing better than at any time in almost 20 years.”

Between December 2017 and July 2018, North Carolina employers added 79,700 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.8 percent), with private-sector hiring accounting for 88 percent of the net gain. Within private industry, the broad trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+14,900, +1.8 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+11,300, +1.8 percent) and the educational and health services sector (+11,100, +1.8 percent). No major industrial sector experienced a net decrease in payroll totals.

“In 2018, the construction and manufacturing sectors both have netted more jobs than they have lost, with each sector netting more than 8,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “Despite those gains, the construction industry still has 13 percent fewer payroll positions than it did at the end of 2007, while the manufacturing sector has 11 percent fewer positions.”

Since North Carolina’s economic recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,800 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of some 690,000 positions (+18 percent) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.5 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. With that gain, North Carolina has 364,200 more jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+8.7 percent).

So far in 2018, the household survey also has offered a positive view of the state’s labor market. Since December, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent from 4.5 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 203,407. For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.4 percent, with the number of unemployed persons totaling 525,559.

Also in 2018, the number of employed persons has risen by 1.2 percent, climbing to 4.8 million from 4.7 million. And the size of the labor force has increased by 0.6 percent and now exceeds 5 million people. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 398,000 more people (+8.6 percent) now are employed or actively seeking work.

“The 4.1 percent unemployment rate recorded in July was the lowest monthly rate logged in North Carolina since November 2000,” observed Quinterno. “Despite similar rates of unemployment, today’s labor market arguably is not as strong as the one that existed in 2000, largely because there is scant evidence of the meaningful gains in earnings that characterized the earlier period. In short, today’s growth generally is not improving living standards.”

Consider private-sector earnings. After adjusting for inflation, the average private-sector wage in North Carolina in July 2018 was $24.79 per hour versus $23.65 in July 2010, a real difference of $1.14 per hour. That translates into an annualized rate of growth 0.6 percent. When compared to July 2007, shortly before the “Great Recession,” the average private-sector wage in North Carolina, adjusting for inflation, is just $1.69 per hour higher than it was 11 years ago.

A similar pattern applies to average weekly earnings in the private-sector, which totaled $868 in July 2018, after adjusting for inflation, versus $807 in July 2010 and $813 in July 2007. One factor contributing to the recent increase in weekly earnings versus 2010 has been an increase in the number of hours worked each week.

“North Carolina’s unemployment rate fell in July to the lowest one recorded in 18 years, while job growth has improved compared to earlier in the recovery,” explained Quinterno. “The improvements still are not translating into the kinds of growth valued by workers: growth in earnings, incomes, and standards of living.”

The post North Carolina’s Labor Market Recovery Continues first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The first half of 2018 has been the best one for job growth in North Carolina since the start of the recovery,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “As has been the case for some time, the top-level labor market indicators for North Carolina point to an economy that is adding jobs and reducing unemployment. Taken in isolation, those indicators suggest that North Carolina’s labor market is performing better than it has at any point in almost 20 years.”

Between December 2017 and June 2018, North Carolina employers added 69,100 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.6 percent), with private-sector hiring accounting for 95 percent of the net gain. Within private industry, the broad trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+13,500, +1.6 percent), followed by the educational and health services sector (+10,000, +1.7 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+8,100, +1.6 percent). No major industrial sector experienced a net decrease in payroll totals.

“During the first half of 2018, both the construction and manufacturing sectors netted more jobs than they lost, with each sector adding over 7,000 more jobs that it shed,” noted Quinterno. “Despite recent gains, the construction industry still has 14.5 percent fewer payroll positions than it did at the end of 2007, while the manufacturing sector has 10.8 percent fewer positions.”

Since North Carolina’s economic recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of some 6,800 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of almost 680,000 positions (+18 percent) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.5 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. With that gain, North Carolina has 353,600 more jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+8.5 percent).

So far in 2018, the household survey also has offered a positive view of the state’s labor market. Since December, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2 percent from 4.5 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 209,552. For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.4 percent, with the number of unemployed persons totaling 525,559.

Additionally in 2018, the number of employed persons has risen by 0.9 percent, climbing to 4.8 million from 4.7 million. And the size of the labor force has increased by 0.6 percent and now totals 5 million people. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 391,500 more people (+8.5 percent) now are employed or actively seeking work.

“The 4.2 percent unemployment rate recorded in June was the lowest monthly rate recorded in North Carolina since December 2000,” observed Quinterno. “Despite similar rates of unemployment, today’s labor market arguably is not as strong as the one that existed in 2000, largely because there is scant evidence of the meaningful gains in earnings that characterized the earlier period. In short, today’s growth is not necessarily improving living standards.”

Consider private-sector earnings. After adjusting for inflation, the average private-sector wage in North Carolina in June 2018 was $24.47 per hour versus $23.49 in June 2010, a difference of $0.98 per hour. That translates into an annualized rate of growth 0.5 percent. When compared to June 2007, shortly before the “Great Recession,” the average private-sector wage in North Carolina, adjusting for inflation, is just $1.48 per hour higher than it was 11 years ago.

A similar pattern applies to average weekly earnings in the private-sector, which totaled $856 in June 2018, after adjusting for inflation, versus $806 in June 2010 and $807 in June 2007. One factor contributing to the recent increase in weekly earnings versus 2010 has been an increase in the number of hours worked each week.

“So far in 2018, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest one recorded in 18 years, while job growth has improved compared to the same point in time during prior years in the recovery,” explained Quinterno. “The improvements, however, are not translating into the kind of growth valued by workers: growth in their earnings, incomes, and standard of living.”

The post Growing, Just Not In All The Right Ways first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Job growth in North Carolina slowed in September, with the state netting just 2,500 payroll positions,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “2017 is well on its way to being the the worst year for statewide job growth since the start of the recovery from the ‘Great Recession.’ Over the first nine months of the year, North Carolina has netted a total of 39,800 payroll jobs, which is the smallest net gain posted during the first three-quarters of a year since 2011.”

Since North Carolina’s labor market recovery began in early 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 581,000 positions (+15.1%) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.4 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 254,300 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+6.1 percent).

“The labor market data released for September continue a yearlong pattern in which the payroll data paint a more negative view of North Carolina’s labor market than do the household data,” noted Quinterno. “Job growth slowed for the fourth month in a row, but the unemployment rate remained at a 17-year low. Squaring these confounding data is essential to understanding the landscape working North Carolinians are navigating.”

Judging by the household survey, North Carolina’s labor market appears to have improved during 2017. Since the start of the year, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 200,905 from 256,852 (-21.8 percent). For context, the unemployment rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

“The low unemployment of 4.1% rate–a rate that has been logged in North Carolina for three months in a row–is the one piece of labor market data that has grabbed popular attention in recent months,” observed Quinterno. “The last time the state posted a 4.1 percent unemployment rate was in November 2000. Today, however, there is little evidence of the gains in wages, incomes, and living standards that characterized that earlier period—an expansionary one that would end the next year in a recession.”

Another difference between the two periods is how much more potential labor is sitting idle today. In late 2000, some 68 of every 100 working-age North Carolinians either had a job or were actively seeking one, versus 62 of every 100 today. Similarly, 65 percent of all working-age North Carolinians had a job in late 2000, as opposed to 59 percent today. While some of the drop is tied to demographic changes, weaker economic conditions also are contributing. And both of these important indicators had been trending downward prior to September.

“In 2017, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest one recorded in 17 years despite a marked slowdown in job creation,” said Quinterno. “While the low unemployment rate seems promising, the underlying dynamics are less so, which explains why low rates of unemployment are not generating widespread improvements in living standards.”

The post Job Growth In North Carolina Slowed In Sept. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The course will take place on October 26, 2017, at The Frontier at Research Triangle Park, which is located in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina.

“Making Sense of the Census” provides an introduction to essential census concepts and sources, along with hands-on opportunities to practice community applications.

Upon completion of the daylong course (9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.), participants will return to their organizations better able to complete such tasks as the following:

• Define a local community in a systematic way for analysis
• Locate needed census data
• Create a demographic and economic profile of a community
• Incorporate census data into reports, grants, presentations, and work documents
• Communicate data to general audiences like boards of directors and civic leaders

No prior exposure to statistics or quantitative analysis is needed to benefit from the course.

People interested in registering for one of the remaining spots should do so by the end of the day on Tuesday, October 24. The registration fee of $195/person may be paid by credit or debit card via a secured Square transaction.

Developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy, this course is the first in a set intended to provide individuals working in social mission organizations with practical orientations to the data collected by public agencies like the US Census Bureau.

More details about the course and answers to frequently asked questions are available in this online flyer. Note that registration is limited to 25 participants on a first-come basis.

Organizations interested in sending multiple people should contact South by North Strategies for details about group discounts. Enrolled university students also are eligible for a discounted rate. For information, contact courses@sbnstrategies.com or (919) 622-2392.

The post Register Soon For “Making Sense of the Census” first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The course will take place on October 26, 2017, at The Frontier at Research Triangle Park, which is located in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina.

“Making Sense of the Census” provides an introduction to essential census concepts and sources, along with hands-on opportunities to practice local applications. Special attention is paid to the American Community Survey.

Upon completion of the daylong course (9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.), participants will return to their organizations better able to complete such tasks as the following:

• Define a local community in a systematic way for analysis
• Locate needed census data
• Create a demographic and economic profile of a community
• Incorporate census data into reports, grants, presentations, and work documents
• Communicate data to general audiences like boards of directors and civic leaders

No prior exposure to statistics or quantitative analysis is needed to benefit from the course.

More details about the course and answers to frequently asked questions are available in this online flyer. Note that registration is limited to 25 participants on a first-come basis.

The registration fee is $195/person, payable by credit or debit card via a secured Square transaction.

Agencies interested in sending multiple people should e-mail courses@sbnstrategies.com for details about group discounts. Enrolled university students also are eligible for a discounted rate; for information, e-mail courses@sbnstrategies.com.

This course is the first in a series developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. The goal is to provide individuals working in nonprofit, public, philanthropic, and media organizations with a practical orientation to the data collected by public statistical agencies like the US Census Bureau.

Address additional questions to courses@sbnstrategies.com or (919) 622-2392.

The post Still Time to Register For “Making Sense of the Census” first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

This daylong training course will take place on October 26, 2017, at The Frontier at Research Triangle Park, which is located in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina.

The course is the first in a series developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. The goal is to provide individuals working in mission-driven organizations — nonprofit, public, philanthropic, and media organizations, in particular — with a practical orientation to the data generated by agencies like the US Census Bureau.

No prior exposure to statistics or quantitative analysis is needed to benefit from the course.

“Making Sense of the Census” provides an introduction to essential census concepts and sources, along with hands-on opportunities to practice local applications. Special attention is paid to the American Community Survey. Upon completion of the daylong course (9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.), participants will be better able to complete such tasks as the following:

• Define a local community in a systematic way for analysis
• Locate needed census data
• Create a demographic and economic profile of a community
• Incorporate census data into reports, grants, presentations, and work documents
• Communicate data to general audiences like boards of directors and civic leaders

The post Register For “Making Sense Of The Census” on October 26 In RTP first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Job growth in North Carolina slowed in July,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the first seven months of 2017, North Carolina netted a total of 31,700 payroll jobs, which was the smallest net gain over the first seven months of a year since 2011. Based on payroll data, North Carolina’s recovery—a recovery that already was sluggish—clearly has slowed this year.”

Between June 2017 and July 2017, North Carolina employers added 8,800 more payroll jobs than they cut (+0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 6,900 positions (+0.2 percent), and public-sector payrolls netted 1,900 jobs (+0.3 percent), due to hiring at the local level. Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+3,300, +0.4 percent), followed by the education and health services (+2,700, +0.5 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services (+2,500, +0.5 percent) sectors. The construction sector, meanwhile, shed 2,400 more positions than it added (-1.2 percent).

Since North Carolina’s labor market recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 573,000 positions (+14.9%) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.4 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 246,200 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+5.9 percent).

“While the payroll data recorded in North Carolina so far in 2017 point to a slowing recovery, the household employment data logged so far this year paint a more positive picture of the state’s labor market,” noted Quinterno. “Reconciling these diverging data is essential to understanding what is happening in the labor market and what that means for all those North Carolinians who want and need work.”

Judging by the household survey, North Carolina’s labor market appears to have improved during 2017, at least at a superficial level. Since the year’s start, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 200,752 from 256,852 (-21.8 percent). For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

Also in 2017, the number of employed persons has risen by 0.8 percent, climbing to 4.70 million from 4.66 million. Yet the size of the labor force has decreased slightly, falling by 0.4 percent to 4.90 million from 4.92 million. Compared to the start of the year, 19,914 fewer North Carolinians are either employed or actively seeking working; if all those people were in the labor force and counted as unemployed, the state’s unemployment rate in July would have been 4.5 percent.

“The item in this month’s employment report apt to generate the biggest headlines is the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent, which is the lowest monthly rate posted since November 2000,” observed Quinterno. “Today’s labor market is radically different from the one of 17 years ago, largely because there is little evidence of the widespread gains in wages, incomes, and living standards generated during that earlier period—an expansionary one that would end the next year with the onset of the 2001 recession.”

Another key difference between the two periods is how much more potential labor is sitting idle today. In late 2000, some 68 of every 100 working-age North Carolinians either had a job or were actively seeking one, versus 61 of every 100 today. Similarly, 65 percent of all working-age North Carolinians had a job in late 2000, as opposed to 59 percent today. While some of the decline is tied to demographic changes, weaker economic conditions also likely are contributing. Alarmingly, both of these important indicators have been trending downward.

“So far in 2017, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest one recorded in 17 years despite a slowdown in job creation,” said Quinterno. “While the low unemployment rate seems promising, the underlying dynamics are much less so, which explains why seemingly low rates of unemployment are not occurring alongside gains in wages, incomes, and living standards.”

“Even more troubling is the fact that North Carolina’s weak recovery appears to have slowed in 2017. If the national economy tips into a recession in the next several months, North Carolina will enter that recession having never truly recovered from the prior one.”

The post NC’s Labor Market Continues To Confound first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

In response, South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy, is developing a set of training courses focused on the use of public demographic, economic, and social data. Courses will be tailored to the needs of mission-driven organizations.

To help shape this initiative, interested individuals kindly are asked to complete an anonymous 5-minute survey about organizational training needs related to public data.

Click here to access the survey, or paste the following link into a web browser: https://goo.gl/forms/VOZZ0JmX2jF32qCt2

Thank you for your input.

The post Ideas Sought For New Training Courses first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Click on the following links to see the profiles for each of Chatham, Durham, Orange, and Wake counties, or view a composite file with all four snapshots below.

The post Opportunity Gaps In The Research Triangle first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina’s labor market turned in a relatively solid performance for the second month in a row,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “As has been the case throughout 2017, the top-level labor market indicators for June offered a more positive view of current conditions than is supported by the underlying dynamics, which actually point to a more complex situation.”

Between May 2017 and June 2017, North Carolina employers added 12,600 more payroll jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 3,500 positions (+0.1 percent), and public-sector payrolls netted 9,100 jobs (+1.2 percent), due mainly to hiring at the local level. Within private industry, the education and health services sector netted the most jobs (+4,300, +0.7 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+3,100, +0.5 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+1,500, +0.3 percent). The construction sector, meanwhile, shed 2,200 more positions than it added (-1.1 percent).

Since North Carolina’s labor market recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 565,500 positions (+14.7%) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.4 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 238,700 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+5.7 percent).

“Despite the positive data for June, job growth in North Carolina has slowed in 2017,” noted Quinterno. “The state has netted just 24,000 payroll jobs so far this year, as compared to an average of 46,000 jobs at the same point in each of the last three years.”

Somewhat confusingly, the household survey so far in 2017 has been offering a more positive view of the state’s labor market than has the payroll survey. Since the year’s start, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 208,051 from 256,852 (-19 percent). For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

Also in 2017, the number of employed persons has risen by 0.8 percent, climbing to 4.71 million from 4.66 million. Yet the size of the labor force has decreased slightly, falling by 0.2 percent to 4.91 million from 4.92 million. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 292,000 more people (+6.3 percent) now are employed or actively seeking work.

“What is sure to generate the most attention in this month’s report is the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent, which is the lowest monthly rate posted since late 2000,” observed Quinterno. “Despite similar rates of unemployment, today’s labor market arguably is worse than the one from 17 years ago, largely because there is little evidence of the kinds of widespread gains in wages, incomes, and living standards that characterized the earlier era. Additionally, the 4.1 percent rate posted in November 2000 was part of a rising trend of worsening unemployment rates that would lead into a recession the following year.”

Another difference between the two periods is found in various measures of labor utilization. In late 2000, approximately 68 of every 100 working-age North Carolinians either had a job or were actively seeking one, as compared to 61 of every 100 today. Similarly, some 65% of all working-age North Carolinians had a job in late 2000, as opposed to 59% today. While some of the decline likely is tied to demographic changes, weaker economic conditions also likely are contributing.

“During the first half of 2017, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest one recorded in almost 17 years even though job growth has slowed compared to recent years,” explained Quinterno. “This combination helps to explain why North Carolina is not experiencing the growth in wages, incomes, and living standards typically associated with such low rates of unemployment.”

The post NC’s Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.2% first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina’s labor market turned in its best performance of this year in May,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “One comparatively strong month unfortunately doesn’t change the fact that overall job growth in North Carolina has slowed appreciably during 2017.”

Between April 2017 and May 2017, North Carolina employers added 18,800 more payroll jobs than they cut (+0.4 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 19,300 positions (+0.5 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 500 jobs (-0.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+9,600, +1.5 percent), followed by the construction (+3,300, +1.7 percent) and manufacturing (+1,900, +0.4 percent) sectors.

Since North Carolina’s labor market recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 556,500 positions (+14.5%) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.4 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 229,700 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+5.5 percent).

“Despite the positive data for May, job growth in North Carolina has slowed in 2017,” noted Quinterno. “The state has netted just 15,200 payroll jobs so far this year, as compared to approximately 40,000 jobs at the same point in the calendar in both 2016 and 2015.”

Somewhat confusingly, the household survey so far in 2017 has been offering a more positive view of the state’s labor market than has the payroll survey. Since the year’s start, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.5 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 222,989 from 256,852 (-13.2 percent). For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

Also in 2017, the number of employed persons has risen by 0.9 percent, climbing to 4.71 million from 4.66 million. Meanwhile, the size of the labor force has increased slightly, growing by 0.2 percent to 4.93 million from 4.92 million. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 311,000 more people (+6.7 percent) now are employed or actively seeking work.

“What is sure to generate the most attention in this month’s report is the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5 percent, which is the lowest monthly rate posted since early 2001,” observed Quinterno. “Despite similar rates of unemployment, today’s labor market arguably is worse than the one from 16 years ago, largely because there is little evidence of the kinds of widespread gains in wages, incomes, and living standards that characterized the earlier era.”

Another difference between the two periods is found in various measures of labor utilization. In early 2001, approximately 68 of every 100 working-age North Carolinians either had a job or were actively seeking one, as compared to 62 of every 100 today. Similarly, some 65% of all working-age North Carolinians had a job in early 2001, as opposed to 59% today. While some of the decline likely is tied to demographic changes, weaker economic conditions also likely are contributing. To the extent that poor prospects depress labor utilization rates, joblessness will be more pronounced than is reflected in the official unemployment rate.

“So far in 2017, North Carolina’s labor market has been of two minds,” explained Quinterno. “The unemployment rate has fallen to a remarkably low level despite a relative lack of payroll job growth. Even though North Carolina has a low rate of unemployment, the state is not experiencing the benefits typically associated with that environment; namely, improvements in wages, incomes and living standards.”

The post NC’s Unemployment Rate Falls To 4.5% In May first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina’s labor market has sputtered so far in 2017, with the total number of jobs in the state having increased by just 4,900, or 0.1 percent, during the first quarter of the year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy.

Between February 2017 and March 2017, North Carolina employers added 500 more payroll jobs than they cut (+/-0.0 percent). Private-sector payrolls lost, on net, 4,400 positions (-0.1 percent), but public-sector payrolls gained, on net, 4,900 jobs (+0.7 percent). Within private industry, the construction sector shed the most jobs (-3,700, -1.8 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-3,000, -0.4 percent). The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, netted the most jobs (+2,600, +0.6 percent).

Since North Carolina’s labor market recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 546,000 positions (+14.2%) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.4 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 219,000 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+5.3 percent).

“In recent years, North Carolina has gained jobs at a rate of approximately 2 percent per year,” noted Quinterno. “Such a modest rate of growth has done little to generate real improvements in hourly wages, household incomes, and overall living standards.”

So far in 2017, the household survey has offered a somewhat more positive view of North Carolina’s labor market than has the payroll survey. Since the year’s start, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 244,060 from 256,852 (-5 percent). For comparison, the unemployment rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

Also in 2017, the number of employed persons has risen by 0.9 percent, climbing to 4.71 million from 4.66 million. Meanwhile, the size of the labor force has increased by 0.6 percent, growing to 5.0 million from 4.9 million. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 319,000 more people (+6.9 percent) are employed or actively seeking work.

“While North Carolina’s labor market has improved steadily, albeit slowly, over the past seven years, that progress slowed during the first quarter of 2017,” explained Quinterno. “The next few months likely will tell whether that slowdown is a temporary blip or the beginning of a period of slow growth that will pose new challenges to all North Carolinians who work for a living.”

The post NC Netted Almost No Jobs In 2017.q1 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“February 2017 marked the seventh anniversary of the start of North Carolina’s labor market recovery from the ‘Great Recession’,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Improvements have been very slow in coming, and as a result, the state’s labor market, while better in some ways, still has not returned to pre-recessionary conditions in other important respects.”

Over the past seven years, North Carolina’s labor market has netted an average of 6,500 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 545,000 positions (+14.2%) from the worst point of the last recession to the present. Today, the state has 4.3 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 218,000 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+5.2 percent).

“In recent years, North Carolina has gained jobs at a rate of approximately 2 percent per year,” noted Quinterno. “Such a modest rate of growth has done little to generate real improvements in hourly wages, household incomes, and overall living standards.”

Similar patterns emerge when considering household data related to employment. In February, the statewide unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent from 5.3 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 252,452 from 260,064 (-2.9 percent). For comparison, the unemployment rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

Since February 2010, the state’s labor force has grown by 7.1 percent, rising to 4.9 million from 4.6 million, with the number of employed persons having increased by 14.6 percent, ticking up to 4.7 million from 4.1 million.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved over the past seven years, and conditions are better today than they were during the worst part of the recession,” explained Quinterno. “The labor market remains far from healthy, however, and its abilities to accommodate all those who want and need work and generate rising wages and incomes remain impaired.”

The post North Carolina’s Recovery Turns Seven first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina’s labor market got off to a slow start in 2017, with the state experiencing a monthly decline in the number of payroll jobs for the first time since early 2015,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The drop, however, was slight, and it was consistent with the pattern of slow growth that has defined North Carolina’s recovery over the past seven years.”

Between December 2016 and January 2017, North Carolina employers cut 6,600 more payroll jobs than they added (-0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls lost, on net, 1,400 positions (-0.1 percent), and public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 5,200 jobs (-0.7 percent). Within private industry, the manufacturing sector shed the most jobs (-4,700, -1 percent), followed by the leisure and hospitality sector (-1,900, -0.4 percent), the professional and business services sector (-1,200, -0.2 percent), and the information sector (-800, -1 percent). The losses in those industries were partially offset by gains in trade, trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+1,800, +0.2 percent), the financial services sector (+1,700, +0.7 percent), the other services sector (+1,500, +1 percent), and the construction sector (+1,100, +0.5 percent).

Today’s data release from the Labor and Economic Analysis Division also reflects the annual benchmark revision, in which historical monthly estimates are adjusted to a complete job count derived chiefly from unemployment insurance tax filings. That benchmark revision showed that North Carolina gained more payroll jobs in 2016 than first thought (+94,000 vs. +85,200). Meanwhile, the state gained more jobs in 2015 than first estimated (+101,300 vs. +84,200), while adding fewer jobs in 2014 than first measured (+94,900 vs. 96,000).

“After accounting for recent data revisions, North Carolina now has 207,900 more payroll jobs, or 5 percent more, than it did when the ‘Great Recession’ began in December 2007,” said Quinterno. “Since the statewide recovery began in February 2010, North Carolina has gained an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in cumulative gain of 534,700 jobs.”

Another trend revealed by the data revision is how remarkably consistent job growth has been over the last five years. Since 2012, the number of payroll jobs in North Carolina has grown at a rate of approximately 2 percent per year, with specific annual growth rates ranging from 1.8 percent in 2012 to 2.4 percent in 2015. The exact rate for 2016 was 2.2 percent.

“Although consistent, an annual rate of job growth of 2 percent coming on the heels of a brutal recession is not adequate to accommodate North Carolina’s growing working-age population,” cautioned Quinterno. “Such a modest rate of growth also is unlikely to generate any real improvements in hourly wages, household incomes, and overall living standards.”

Similar patterns emerge when considering household data related to employment. In January, the statewide unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons climbing to 260,150 from 256,852 (+1.3 percent). In January, the state’s labor force grew by 0.3 percent, rising to 4.93 million from 4.92 million, with the number of employed persons increasing by 0.2 percent, ticking up to 4.67 million from 4.66 million.

Based on the recent data revisions, North Carolina’s monthly unemployment rate averaged 5.1 percent in 2016, as compared to 5.7 percent in 2015. On average, fewer North Carolinians were unemployed in 2016 than in 2015 (248,000 vs. 271,000), while more people were employed in the typical month (4.6 million vs. 4.5 million).

A defining characteristic of the “Great Recession” and the subsequent recovery has been a sharp drop in the share of the working-age population that is even participating in the labor force. In 2016, that proportion averaged 61.7 percent, up from 61.3 percent in 2015. Yet in 2007, the rate averaged 62.4 percent. If the 2007 rate had been in effect in 2016, an additional 307,778 individuals (+6.3 percent), on average, would have been in the state’s labor force.

The same dynamic applies to the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed. In 2016, that proportion averaged 58.9 percent, up from 57.8 percent in 2015. Yet in 2007, the rate averaged 62.4 percent. If the 2007 rate had been in effect in 2016, an additional 274,600 individuals (+5.9 percent), on average, would have been employed.

“2017 is a potential turning point for North Carolina’s slow labor market recovery,” explained Quinterno. “Left to its own devices, a 2 percent increase in payroll employment seems likely, given how that has been the case for each of the last five years. Yet a great deal of uncertainty exists in light of possible changes in the United States’ fiscal and monetary policies. Some changes could serve to accelerate growth, while others could slow it further, resulting in an even more difficult landscape for working North Carolinians to navigate.”

The post NC’s Labor Market Starts 2017 Slowly first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The job growth experienced so far in North Carolina in 2016 is no different from the pattern experienced since the beginning of the recovery in early 2010,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Although job growth has been consistent over the past 6.5 years, that growth has proven insufficient to accommodate all those who want and need work.”

From October to November, North Carolina employers added 9,000 more jobs than they cut (+0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls added, on net, 10,800 positions (+0.3 percent), with public-sector payrolls shrinking by 1,800 positions (-0.2 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector gained, on net, the most payroll jobs (+4,800, +0.8 percent), followed by the leisure and hospitality services sector (+3,600, +0.8 percent) and the manufacturing sector (+2,000, +0.4 percent). Meanwhile, the education and health services sector shed the most payroll jobs (-2,700, -0.5 percent), followed by the construction sector (-1,200, -0.6 percent).

A revision to the October payroll data found that the state netted slightly fewer jobs than first estimated (+5,500 versus +5,700). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 185,400 more payroll positions (+4.5 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 512,000 positions (+13.3 percent).Over the year, North Carolina employers added 81,800 more jobs than they cut (+1.9 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 75,500 positions (+2.1 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 6,300 jobs (+0.9 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+25,800, +4.3 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+18,300, +2.3 percent) and the construction sector (+10,600, +5.6 percent).

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 has not closed the state’s sizable jobs gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it needs relative to the population growth that has occurred over the same period.”

The monthly household data for November also pointed to some improvements in the state’s labor market. Although the statewide unemployment rate of 5 percent was higher than the 4.9 percent rate in October, the rate was lower than the 5.6 percent one logged a year earlier.

Much of the increase in the statewide unemployment rate between October and November was due to a 27,293 person expansion (+0.6 percent) in the size of the labor force. Between October and November, the number of unemployed North Carolinians rose by 6,234 persons (+2.6 percent), while the number of employed persons increased by 21,059 individuals (+0.5 percent).

With those changes, North Carolina now has a total labor force of 4,880,813 persons, of whom 4,637,823 are employed, 242,990 unemployed.

The month-over-month expansion in the size of the labor force further was reflected in a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.5 percent from 61.3 percent. That rate, however, remains just 0.8 percentage points above the lowest monthly rate logged at any point since January 1976.

“Slow-but-steady growth continues to define North Carolina’s recovery from the ‘Great Recession,’ yet that growth is inadequate to meet the employment needs of a growing state,” said Quinterno. “That is why the growth experienced so far during the recovery has failed to produce meaningful improvements in the wages, incomes, and living standards of the North Carolinians who depend on the labor market to support themselves and their families.”

The post NC Unemployment Rate Ticked Up In Nov. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The job growth experienced so far in North Carolina in 2016 is in line with the slow recovery underway since early 2010,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The state remains mired in the same pattern of underwhelming job growth that has characterized that past 6.5 years.”

From September to October, North Carolina employers added 5,700 more jobs than they cut (+0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls added, on net, 6,300 positions (+0.2 percent), with public sector payrolls shrinking by 600 positions (-0.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector gained, on net, the most payroll jobs (+5,500, +0.9 percent), followed by the leisure and hospitality services sector (+3,600, +0.8 percent) and the construction sector (+1,900, +1 percent). The other services sector, meanwhile, cut, on net, 2,200 jobs (-1.4 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-900, -0.1 percent) and the information sector (-800, -1.1 percent).

A revision to the September payroll data found that the state netted more jobs than first estimated (+11,100 versus +9,700). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 176,600 more payroll positions (+4.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 503,200 positions (+13 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 84,700 more jobs than they cut (+2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 76,800 positions (+2.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 7,900 jobs (+1.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+27,400, +4.6 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+19,600, +2.4 percent) and the education and health services sector (+9,600, +1.7 percent) sector.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 has not closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have given the growth in the state’s working-age population.”

The monthly household data for October painted a mixed picture of the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate of 4.9 percent was up from the 4.7 percent rate in September. At the same time, the unemployment rate was lower than the 5.6 percent rate logged in October 2015.

Much of the increase in the statewide unemployment rate between September and October was due to a 30,261 person expansion (+0.6 percent) in the size of the labor force. Between September and October, the number of unemployed North Carolinians actually rose by 10,095 persons (+4.4 percent), while the number of employed persons increased by 20,166 individuals (+0.4 percent).

The month-over-month expansion in the size of the labor force further was reflected in a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.3 percent from 61 percent. That rate, however, remains just 0.6 percentage points above the lowest monthly rate logged at any point since January 1976.

“Slow-but-steady job growth has defined North Carolina’s recovery from the ‘Great Recession,’ but that growth has not been sufficient to accommodate the employment needs of a growing working-age population,” said Quinterno. “Those conditions explain to a large degree why many working North Carolinians are struggling to realize improvements in their wages, incomes, and living standards.”

The post NC Unemployment Rate Rose In Oct. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The job growth experienced so far in North Carolina in 2016 is consistent with the slow recovery underway since early 2010,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The recovery has yet to reverse the severe economic damage inflicted during the recession.”

From June to July 2016, North Carolina employers added 12,000 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls added, on net, 6,800 positions (+0.2 percent), with public sector payrolls growing by 5,200 positions (+0.7 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector gained, on net, the most payroll jobs (+3,300, +0.5 percent), followed by the financial activities sector (+2,600, +1.2 percent) and the construction sector (+1,900, +1 percent). The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, cut, on net, 1,700 jobs (-0.4 percent), followed by the trade transportation, and utilities sector (-1,500, -0.2 percent).

A revision to the June payroll data found that the state netted fewer jobs than first estimated (+18,800 versus +19,400). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 172,800 more payroll positions (+4.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,500 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 499,400 positions (+13 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 94,100 more jobs than they cut (+2.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 79,200 positions (+2.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 14,900 jobs (+2.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+28,600, +4.8 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+20,700, +2.6 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+9,500, +2.1 percent) sector.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 still has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have given the growth in the state’s working-age population that has occurred.”

The monthly household data for July offered a more negative view of the labor market. The statewide unemployment rate of 4.7 percent was down from the 4.9 percent rate in June. The July rate of 4.7 percent also was the lowest monthly rate logged since June 2007.

Much of the decline in the statewide unemployment rate between June and July, however, was due to a reduction in the size of the labor force by 26,156 persons (-0.5 percent). Between June and July, the number of employed North Carolinians actually fell by 13,203 persons (-0.3 percent), and the number of unemployed persons fell by 12,953 persons (-5.4 percent). Had all of those persons been considered unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been 5.2 percent.

The contraction in the size of the labor force further was reflected in a 0.4 percentage point decline in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.1 percent from 61.5 percent. That was the lowest rate recorded since last January, as well as one that was just 0.4 percentage points above the lowest monthly rate logged at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved noticeably since the worst part of the ‘Great Recession,’ but conditions still not are strong enough to accommodate all those who want and need work,” said Quinterno. “Such subpar labor market conditions are incapable of generating meaningful improvements in wages, incomes, and household living standards.”

The post A Mixed Performance for NC’s Labor Market first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

According to the briefs’ author, John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm in Chapel Hill, stagnant wages, falling household incomes, subpar economic growth and a jobs gap make North Carolina’s economic recovery more like a distant dream for many Tar Heel households.

“Proponents of the ‘Carolina Comeback’ are fond of listing impressive-sounding statistics without providing the context needed to compare current conditions to pre-recessionary ones or to gauge whether the recovery is meeting the state’s needs,” said Quinterno. “When that missing context is provided, it becomes clear that the recovery has bypassed most North Carolinians, who on any number of indicators are worse off now than when the recession started in 2007.”

The briefs also detail the extent to which the recovery has bypassed most segments of North Carolina’s population, irrespective of race, ethnicity, education, and place. The result is a state increasingly defined by striking economic hardships and widening inequalities.

The series of issue briefs is designed as reference documents for editors, reporters and thought-leaders. Each brief covers a specific economic issue and uses public statistical data to explore the patterns that have unfolded since 2007, paying attention to differences between the contraction (approx. 2007-2009) and expansion (approx. 2009-present) phases of the business cycle.

Click below to download the briefs in PDF format; the briefs also are available below in one file.

Issue 1: A Growing State with Too Few Jobs
Issue 2: A Low-Wage, Low-Skill Recovery
Issue 3: Falling Household Incomes
Issue 4: Insufficient GDP Growth 

For questions about the briefs, interviews and other media requests please contact John Quinterno at johnq@sbnstrategies.com or (919) 622-2392.

The post Few Signs Of A “Carolina Comeback” first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Over the past year, many of North Carolina’s local labor markets have continued their slow recovery from the depths of the last recession,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Recent improvements, while welcome, should not obscure the extent to which many local labor markets continue to underperform almost 6.5 years into a recovery.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 3.9 percent more payroll jobs (+161,400). In June 2016, the state gained 19,400 more jobs than it lost (+0.5 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 488,000 payroll jobs (+12.7 percent).

Between May and June of 2016, local unemployment rates rose in 96 of the state’s 100 counties and decreased in 4 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 3.9 percent in Buncombe County to 9.2 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 1 county posted an unemployment rate greater than 8.7 percent, and 60 counties posted rates between 5.2 and 8.7 percent; 39 counties had unemployment rates between 3.9 and 5.1 percent.

“The combined June unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 3.9 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 22 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 2.4 percent fewer employed persons and 2.9 percent more unemployed ones. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 2.2 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

In early 2015, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those revisions, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metropolitan statistical area.

Between May and June, unemployment rates rose in all 15 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (7.5 percent), followed by Fayetteville (6.4 percent) and Greenville (5.9 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.1 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (4.4 percent), and Durham-Chapel Hill (4.7 percent).

Compared to June 2015, unemployment rates in June 2016 were lower in all 100 counties and in all 15 metro areas. Over the year, meanwhile, labor force sizes increased in 60 counties and in 13 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 1.1 percent larger in June 2016 than it was in June 2015.

The bulk of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the state’s metro areas, which collectively grew by 2.1 percent. Among individual metros, Raleigh’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+4.1 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+3.4 percent) and Wilmington (+2.5 percent). Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Burlington (-0.8 percent) and Rocky Mount (-1.2 percent).

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.2 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.5 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 13.8 percent since December 2007; the combined unemployment rate in June 2016 totaled 4.8 percent, versus 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for the vast majority of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (4.7 percent), followed by Charlotte (5 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (5.1 percent).

“Many local labor markets in North Carolina have experienced growth during the ongoing recovery, but those gains have come came at a very leisurely pace,” said Quinterno. “Many of the improvements have been concentrated in the state’s metropolitan areas, especially the Research Triangle, the Piedmont Triad, and Charlotte. Smaller metros and non-metropolitan areas continue to lag behind during a slow recovery that is now almost 6.5 years old.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Down Over The Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina has experienced relatively little job growth so far in 2016,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Since the beginning of the year, the state has added just 32,700 more jobs than it has lost, with effectively no net job growth having occurred in three of the last four months.”

Between April 2016 and May 2016, North Carolina employers shed 1,600 more jobs than they cut (-0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls cut, on net, 3,800 positions (-0.1 percent), with public sector payrolls expanding by 2,200 positions (+0.3 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services shed, on net, the most payroll jobs (-3,500, -0.6 percent), followed by the construction sector (-2,700, -1.4 percent) and the financial activities sector (-2,500, -1.1 percent). The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, added, on net, 2,700 jobs (+0.6 percent), followed by the education and health services sector (+2,600, +0.4 percent).

A revision to the April payroll data found that the state lost rather than gained jobs (-1,600 versus an original estimate of +1,000 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 139,900 more payroll positions (+3.4 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,200 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 466,500 positions (+12.1 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 78,100 more jobs than they cut (+1.8 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 75,700 positions (+2.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 2,400 jobs (+0.3 percent). Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+23,700, +3 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+23,200, +4 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+12,900, +2.8 percent).

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 still has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have. And the state’s modest rate of progress actually has slowed during the first five months of 2016.”

The monthly household data for May offered a different view of the labor market. The statewide unemployment rate of 5.1 percent was down from the 5.4 percent rate in April. While the May unemployment rate was the lowest one logged since early 2008, it still was slightly above the pre-recessionary rate of 5 percent posted in December 2007.

Between April and May, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 13,589 persons (-5.1 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 6,870 (+0.1 percent). Over that period, the size of the statewide labor force shrank by 6,719 persons (-0.1 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians dropping by 25,278 persons (-9.2 percent) to a total of 250,544. During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 142,023 individuals (+3.2 percent) to 4,618,342, and the size of the labor force increased by 116,745 persons (+2.5 percent), reaching a total size of 4,868,886 persons.

Other improvements recorded between May 2015 and May 2016 include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.8 percent from 61.1 percent and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed to 58.6 percent from 57.6 percent. Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved noticeably since the worst part of the ‘Great Recession,’ but the pace of job growth, especially so far in 2016, is too modest to accommodate all those who want work,” said Quinterno. “Labor market conditions also are too weak to generate meaningful improvements in wages, incomes, and material living standards.”

The post No Net Job Growth For Second Straight Month first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“So far in 2016, North Carolina has gained 36,500 more payroll jobs than it has lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2015 was a gain of 25,100 jobs, and the 2014 gain was 27,800 jobs. Even with the gains logged so far in 2016, North Carolina has just 143,700 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.

Between March 2016 and April 2016, North Carolina employers added 1,000 more jobs than they cut (+/ 0.0 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 3,100 positions (+0.1 percent), with public sector payrolls contracting by 2,100 positions (-0.3 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services netted the most payroll jobs (+4,100, +0.7 percent), followed by the information sector (+1,300, +1.7 percent). The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, shed, on net, 2,700 jobs (-0.6 percent).

A revision to the March payroll data found that the state gained more jobs than first reported (+14,300 versus an original estimate of +12,500 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 143,700 more payroll positions (+3.5 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 470,300 positions (+12.2 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 95,600 more jobs than they cut (+2.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 94,900 positions (+2.7 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 700 jobs (+0.1 percent). Within private industry, most every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+29,700, +5.1 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities (+25,100, +3.2 percent) and leisure and hospitality services (+17,500, +3.8 percent) sectors.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have.”

The monthly household data for April contained some positive news about the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate was 5.4 percent, down slightly from the 5.5 percent logged in March. Between March and April, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 1,357 persons (-0.5 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 20,245 (+0.4 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force grew by 18,888 persons (+0.4 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians falling by 10,571 persons (-3.8 percent) to a total of 264,491. During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 141,785 individuals (+3.2 percent) to 4,611,868, and the size of the labor force increased by 131,214 persons (+2.8 percent), reaching a total size of 4,876,359 persons.

Even though North Carolina’s statewide unemployment rate has fallen from the high of 11.3 percent reached in early 2010, the current rate of 5.4 percent remains above the pre-recessionary one of 5 percent. The fact that the unemployment rate has not returned to the pre-recessionary figure after 100 months is a troubling reality, for in no other recent recession has North Carolina’s unemployment rate remained elevated for so long.

Other improvements recorded between April 2015 and April 2016 include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 62 percent from 61.1 percent and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed to 58.6 percent from 57.5 percent. Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market continues to improve at a slow-but-steady pace,” said Quinterno. “The pace basically is sufficient to accommodate the growth in the size of the state’s labor force, yet it is not rapid enough to eliminate the large job gap remaining from the last recession.”

The post NC Netted Virtually No Payroll Jobs in April first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“During the first quarter of 2016, North Carolina gained 33,700 more payroll jobs than it lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2015 was a gain of 13,600 jobs. Even with the gains logged recently, North Carolina has just 140,900 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between February 2016 and March 2016, North Carolina employers added 12,500 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 14,000 positions (+0.4 percent), with public sector payrolls contracting by 1,500 positions (-0.2 percent). Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector netted the most payroll jobs (+6,600, +0.8 percent), followed by the professional and business services (+3,900, +0.6 percent) and the education and health services sector (+3,000, +0.5 percent).

A revision to the February payroll data found that the total payroll level was effectively unchanged from the January figure. With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 140,900 more payroll positions (+3.4 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 467,500 positions (+12.2 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 104,300 more jobs than they cut (+2.5 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 100,600 positions (+2.9 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 3,700 jobs (+0.5 percent). Within private industry, most every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+28,400, +4.9 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities (+27,400, +3.5 percent) and leisure and hospitality services (+16,300, +3.6 percent) sectors.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it does not have as many jobs as it needs.”

The monthly household data for March contained some positive news about the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate in March was 5.5 percent, which was unchanged from the rate logged in February. Between February and March, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 131 persons (-0.1 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 34,284 (+0.8 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force grew by 34,153 persons (+0.7 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians falling by 7,017 persons (-2.6 percent) to a total of 265,918. During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 128,774 individuals (+2.9 percent) to 4,591,429, and the size of the labor force increased by 121,757 persons (+2.6 percent), reaching a total size of 4,857,347 persons.

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.8 percent from 61 percent and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed to 58.4 percent from 57.5 percent. Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market continues to improve at a slow-but-steady pace,” said Quinterno. “The pace is sufficient to accommodate the growth in the size of the state’s labor force, yet it is not rapid enough to eliminate the large job gap created by the last recession.”

The post North Carolina’s Slow Recovery Continues first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Through the first two months of 2016, North Carolina gained 20,200 more payroll jobs than it lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2015 was a gain of 17,700 jobs. Even with the gains logged recently, North Carolina has just 127,400 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between January 2016 and February 2016, North Carolina employers cut 900 more jobs than they added (+/- 0 percent). Private-sector payrolls shed, on net, 1,400 positions (+/- 0 percent), with public sector payrolls growing slightly (+500 jobs, +0.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most payroll jobs (+4,200, +0.7 percent), while the education and health services sector shed the most jobs, on net (-1,800, -0.3 percent).

A revision to the January payroll data found that the state gained fewer jobs than first reported (+21,100 versus an original estimate of +23,200 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 127,400 more payroll positions (+3.1 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 454,000 positions (+11.8 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 86,700 more jobs than they cut (+2.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 81,700 positions (+2.3 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 5,000 jobs (+0.7 percent). Within private industry, most every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+23,700, +4.1 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities (+20,000, +2.5 percent) and leisure and hospitality services (+15,300, +3.4 percent) sectors.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but not as many as it needs.”

The monthly household data for February contained some positive news about the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate in February was 5.5 percent, which was down from the 5.6 percent rate logged in January. Between January and February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 164 persons (-0.1 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 25,687 (+0.6 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force grew by 25,523 persons (+0.5 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate fell from 5.7 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians falling by 3,998 persons (-1.5 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 103,145 individuals (+2.3 percent), and the size of the labor force increased by 99,147 persons (+2.1 percent).

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61.4 percent from 60.9 percent) and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 58 percent from 57.4 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market continues to improve at a slow-but-steady pace,” said Quinterno. “The pace is basically sufficient to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force, while bringing about some reductions in the large job gap that remains from the last recession—a recession that began over eight years ago.”

The post NC Labor Market Moved Sideways In Feb. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“In 2015, many local labor markets in North Carolina continued their slow recovery from the last recession,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “While unemployment rates rose in the overwhelming majority of the state’s counties and metro areas over the year, labor force sizes also increased in many of the same communities. That suggests that rising unemployment rates in many places were driven by people entering or returning to the labor market.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.9 percent more payroll jobs (+121,900). In December 2015, the state gained 6,900 more jobs than it lost (+0.2 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 448,700 payroll jobs (+11.7 percent).

Between November and December of 2015, local unemployment rates fell in 70 of the state’s 100 counties, rose in 21 counties, and held constant in 9 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 3.9 percent in Buncombe County to 12 percent in Graham County. Overall, 3 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 34 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent; 63 counties had unemployment rates between 3.9 and 5.9 percent.

“The combined December unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 4.2 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 22 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 5.4 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 8.5 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 4.8 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier in 2015, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metropolitan statistical area.

Between November and December, unemployment rates fell in 13 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (7.3 percent), followed by Fayetteville (6.8 percent) and Goldsboro (5.9 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.2 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (4.4 percent), and Durham-Chapel Hill (4.5 percent).

Compared to December 2014, unemployment rates in December 2015 were higher in 81 counties and in 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes increased in 59 counties and in 12 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 3.5 percent larger (+158,693 individuals) in December 2015 than it was in December 2014.

Almost all of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the state’s metro areas, which collectively added 146,758 persons (+5.8 percent). Among individual metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+9.5 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+8.5 percent) and Raleigh (+5.6 percent).

Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Fayetteville (-9.2 percent), Jacksonville (-5.3 percent), and Goldsboro (-0.4 percent).

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.3 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.6 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 11.5 percent since December 2007; the combined unemployment rate in December 2015 totaled 4.8 percent, compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for almost all of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest December unemployment rate (4.6 percent), followed by Charlotte (4.9 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (5.1 percent).

In December 2015, the number of unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 24,427 down from the 26,767 initial claims filed a year earlier (-8.7 percent).

Also in December 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $18.7 million in unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $27.6 million received in December 2014 (-32.4 percent). The average weekly unemployment insurance payment in North Carolina in December 2015 was $238.

“Many local labor markets in North Carolina experienced some improvements in 2015, but those gains came at a very leisurely pace,” said Quinterno. “Many of the improvements were concentrated in the state’s metropolitan areas, especially the Research Triangle, the Piedmont Triad, and Charlotte. Smaller metros and non-metropolitan areas continue to lag behind during a slow recovery that is about to enter its sixth year.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Rose In 2015 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Payroll job growth in North Carolina slowed in 2015,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The state netted 86,800 jobs over the course of the year compared to 110,200 in 2014.”

Job growth in 2015 occurred in the same slow manner experienced since early 2010, which is when the state’s labor market began to recover from the last recession. Yet the current pace of monthly job growth—a pace that has averaged 6,400 jobs per month since February 2010—is insufficient to close the state’s sizable job gap anytime soon. Put differently, while North Carolina has more jobs than it did when the recession started, it does not have as many jobs as it needed to accommodate the population growth that has occurred during the same period.

Meanwhile, the statewide unemployment rate and the number of unemployed North Carolinians rose over the course of 2015. In December 2015, the number of unemployed North Carolinians totaled 269,833, up 7.9 percent from the figure recorded a year earlier. During that same span, the statewide unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points, climbing to 5.6 percent from 5.4 percent.

That said, the household data for North Carolina showed some improvements in 2015. The number of employed persons rose by 147,029 (+3.4 percent), while the overall size of the labor force grew by 166,385 persons (+3.6 percent). This suggests that the increase in unemployment was due to more people participating in the labor market in the first place.

Underlying those changes in the labor force data was an increase in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market. The labor force participation rate rose over the course of 2015, increasing to 61.3 percent in December 2015 from 59.8 percent in December 2014; incidentally, the December 2014 rate was the lowest posted in any month since January 1976. The share of working-age North Carolinians with a job also increased over the year, rising to 57.8 percent in December 2015 from 56.6 percent in December 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market logged some improvements in 2015, but those improvements came at a very leisurely pace,” said Quinterno. “That pace is basically sufficient to keep abreast with the growth in the size of the labor force, while bringing about some modest reductions in the large job gap caused by the last recession—a recession that began eight years ago.”

The post Job Growth in North Carolina Slowed In 2015 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Through the first 11 months of 2015, North Carolina has gained 75,900 more payroll jobs than it has lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2014 was a gain of 94,900 jobs. Even with the gains logged recently, North Carolina has just 111,000 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between October 2015 and November 2015, North Carolina employers added 11,400 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 11,600 positions (+0.3 percent), with public sector payrolls remaining essentially unchanged. Within private industry, the education and health services sector netted the most payroll jobs (+4,700, +0.8 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+4,200, +0.5 percent) and the professional and business services sector (+4,000, +0.7 percent). The construction sector, meanwhile, lost the most jobs, on net (-4,200, -2.2 percent).

A revision to the October payroll data found that the state lost fewer jobs than first reported (-1,000 versus an original estimate of -3,100 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 111,000 more payroll positions (+2.7 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 437,800 positions (+11.4 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 91,200 more jobs than they cut (+2.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 88,500 positions (+2.5 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 2,700 jobs (+0.4 percent). Within private industry, every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+20,400, +3.5 percent), followed by the education and health services (+16,500, +2.9 percent) and the trade, transportation, and utilities (+13,300, +1.7 percent) sectors.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010  has not yet closed the state’s job gap—a gap that may be as high as 411,000 payroll jobs,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but not as many as it should have.”

The monthly household data for November also contained some positive news about the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate in November was 5.7 percent, which was unchanged from the rate logged in October. Between October and November, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 2,015 persons (-0.7 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 15,466 (+0.3 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force grew by 13,451 persons (+0.3 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate rose from 5.5 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians rising by 15,615 persons (+6.1 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 133,817 individuals (+3.1 percent), and the size of the labor force increased by 149,432 persons (+3.2 percent).

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61.1 percent from 59.9 percent) and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.6 percent from 56.6 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market continues to improve at a slow-but-steady pace,” said Quinterno. “That pace is basically sufficient to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force, while bringing about some reductions in the large job gap that remains from the last recession—a recession that began almost eight years ago.”

The post North Carolina Labor Market Improved In Nov. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Through the first ten months of 2015, North Carolina has gained 62,400 more payroll jobs than it has lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2014 was a gain of 81,600 jobs. Even with the gains logged recently, North Carolina has just 95,700 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between September 2015 and October 2015, North Carolina employers cut 3,100 more jobs than they added (-0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls eliminated, on net, 9,500 positions (-0.3 percent), but public-sector payrolls added, on net, 6,400 jobs (+0.9 percent), thanks entirely to hiring by local governments. Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality services sector shed the most payroll jobs (-7,200, -1.6 percent), followed by the education and health services sector (-4,100, -0.7 percent) and the financial activities sector (-1,700, -0.8 percent). The construction sector, meanwhile, added the most jobs, on net (+2,200, +1.2 percent).

A revision to the September payroll data found that the state gained more jobs than first reported (+13,700 versus an original estimate of +4,700 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 97,500 more payroll positions (+2.3 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,200 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 424,300 positions (+11 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 91,000 more jobs than they cut (+2.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 88,900 positions (+2.6 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 2,100 jobs (+0.3 percent). Within private industry, every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+21,000, +3.6 percent), followed by education and health services (+12,900, +2.3 percent).

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 still has not closed the state’s job gap—a gap that may be as high as 420,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but the total remains far short of where it should be.”

The monthly household data for October painted a more positive picture of the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate in October was 5.7 percent, which was down slightly from the 5.8 percent rate logged in September. Between September and October, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 2,042 persons (-0.7 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 10,871 (+0.2 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force grew by 8,829 persons (+0.2 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate held steady at 5.7 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians rising by 11,591 persons (+4.4 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 124,146 individuals (+2.8 percent), and the size of the labor force increased by 135,737 persons (+2.9 percent).

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61 percent from 59.9 percent) and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.5 percent from 56.5 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far above the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

Between October 2014 and October 2015, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 32.3 percent, dropping to 22,545 from 33,283. Also in October 2015, the state paid a (nominal) total of $17.5 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 37.3 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $27.9 million paid in October 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market continues to improve at a slow-but-steady pace,” said Quinterno. “That pace is roughly sufficient to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force, but it is wholly insufficient to eliminate the large job gap and significant labor market problems caused by the last recession—a recession that began almost eight years ago.”

The post Mixed Labor Market Conditions In October first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The presentation (below) compared and contrasted the concepts of economic growth and development, sketched demographic changes within the community, traced the evolution of the town’s housing market, and identified several long-term challenges.

The post A Portrait Of A Changing Chapel Hill first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The results of the analysis–an analysis that highlighted the unprecedented diversity of North Carolina’s children–appeared in a column published on the EducationNC web site.

Click here to read “A Child Population Like None Before.”

The post North Carolina’s Changing Child Population first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The presentation (below) explored the relationship between the state’s underperforming labor market, declining household living standards, and changing economic and social policy realities.

The post The Landscape Of Economic Opportunity first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“In many North Carolina communities, labor market conditions have been improving slowly on a year-over-year basis,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Yet the state’s ongoing, sluggish recovery increasingly is one that is concentrated in a few major metropolitan areas.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.2 percent more payroll jobs (+90,600). In August 2015, the state gained 700 more jobs than it lost (+/- 0.0 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 417,000 payroll jobs (+10.9 percent).

Between July and August of 2015, local unemployment rates fell in 86 of the state’s 100 counties, rose in 4 counties, and held constant in 10 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 4.6 percent in Buncombe County to 11.4 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 4 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 63 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent; 33 counties had unemployment rates between 4.6 and 5.9 percent.

“The combined August unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 5.1 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 21.9 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 4.1 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 30.5 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 4.1 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier in 2015, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state now has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metro area.

Between July and August, unemployment rates fell in 14 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (8.8 percent), followed by Fayetteville (8 percent) and Greenville (6.8 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.8 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (5.2 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (5.4 percent), and Burlington (5.7 percent).

Compared to August 2014, unemployment rates in August 2015 were lower in 91 counties and in 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 56 counties and in 4 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 2.1 percent larger (+98,296 individuals) in August 2015 than it was in August 2014.

All of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the three largest metro areas, which collectively added 112,419 persons (+4.4 percent). Among individual metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+8.9 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+7.1 percent) and Raleigh (+4.4 percent).

Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Fayetteville (-9.7 percent), Jacksonville (-4.1 percent), and Goldsboro (-1.1 percent), while the size of Greenville’s labor force was basically unchanged.

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.1 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.3 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Over the year, unemployment rates fell in 4 of the 5 metro areas that constitute those regions and held steady in one. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 9.8 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in August totaled 5.6 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for virtually all of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest August unemployment rate (5.5 percent), followed by Charlotte (5.8 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6 percent).

In August, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 16,299 down from the 20,279 initial claims filed a year earlier (-19.6 percent). Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,047), followed by Wake (1,602), Guilford (1,037), Cumberland (642), and Forsyth (606) counties.

In August 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $25.3 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $33.1 million received in August 2014. This decline (-23.6 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that have restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Labor market conditions in many North Carolina communities, especially the largest metropolitan ones, steadily have been improving on a year-over-year basis,” said Quinterno. “At the same time, the overall pace of recovery remains subdued, with conditions in non-metropolitan and small metropolitan places either worsening or stagnating.”

The post Unemployment Rates Down Year-Over-Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Through the first eight months of 2015, North Carolina has gained 55,500 more payroll jobs than it has lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2014 was a gain of 58,500 jobs. Even with the gains logged recently, North Carolina has just 90,600 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between July 2015 and August 2015, North Carolina employers added 700 more jobs than they cut (+/-0.0 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 4,300 positions (+0.1 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 3,600 jobs (-0.5 percent), due to cuts by local governments. Within private industry, the construction sector added the most payroll jobs (+2,700, +1.4 percent), followed by the leisure and hospitality services sector (+2,200, +0.5 percent, with 68.2 percent of the gain occurring in the accommodation and food services subsector). The education and health services sector, meanwhile, lost the most jobs, on net (-2,900, -0.5 percent).

A revision to the July payroll data found that the state gained fewer jobs than first reported (+19,500 versus an original estimate of +20,600 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 90,600 more payroll positions (+2.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 417,400 positions (+10.9 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 107,200 more jobs than they cut (+2.6 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 112,000 positions (+3.3 percent), while public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 4,800 jobs (-0.7 percent). Within private industry, every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+22,100 or +3.8 percent, with 60.2 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste management services subsector).

“The steady payroll growth experienced recently in North Carolina has not closed the state’s job gap—a gap that may be as high as 417,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has slightly more jobs than it did when the recession started, but the state’s labor market remains far short of where it needs to be.”

According to the monthly household data, the statewide unemployment rate held steady at 5.9 percent in August. Between July and August, the number of unemployed North Carolinians increased by 2,040 persons (+0.7 percent), while the number of employed persons fell by 8,844 (-0.2 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force decreased (-6,804 persons, -0.1 percent).

Year over year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points, dropping to 5.9 percent from 6 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians rising by 5,607 persons (+2 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 121,361 individuals (+2.8 percent), while the size of the labor force increased by 126,968 persons (+2.7 percent).

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61 percent from 60.1 percent) and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.4 percent from 56.5 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far above the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

Between August 2014 and August 2015, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 27.1 percent, dropping to 28,781 from 39,466. Also in August 2015, the state paid a (nominal) total of $25.3 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 23.4 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $33.1 million paid in August 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved steadily but slowly over the past year,” said Quinterno. “North Carolina’s economy continues to add enough jobs to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force but not enough to eliminate the large job gap caused by the last recession—a recession that began over 7.5 years ago.”

The post N. Carolina’s Labor Market Unchanged In Aug. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The presentation (embedded below) explored the considerable amount of population growth and housing construction that has occurred in the town since 1990 and identified certain pressing social issues. The presentation also became the basis for an op-ed column authored by Quinterno for The Chapel Hill News.

The post The Changing Demographics of Chapel Hill first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Over the past year, local labor market conditions improved across much of North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Yet the state’s ongoing, sluggish recovery is very much a metropolitan one that increasingly is bypassing non-metropolitan communities.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.2 percent more payroll jobs (+91,000). In July 2015, the state gained 20,600 more jobs than it lost (+0.5 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 418,000 payroll jobs (+10.9 percent).

Between June and July of 2015, local unemployment rates rose in 79 of the state’s 100 counties, fell in 6 counties, and held constant in 15 counties. Individual county rates in July ranged from 4.8 percent Buncombe County to 11.7 percent in Graham and Scotland counties. Overall, 4 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 69 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent; 27 counties had unemployment rates between 4.8 and 5.9 percent.

“The combined July unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 5.3 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 22 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 4.4 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 37.9 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 2.8 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier this year, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state now has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metro area.

Between June and July, unemployment rates rose in all 15 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (9.1 percent), followed by Fayetteville (8.2 percent) and Greenville (7 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (5.1 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (5.3 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (5.6 percent), and Burlington and Wilmington (both 5.9 percent).

Compared to July 2014, unemployment rates in July 2015 were lower in 90 counties and in 13 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 52 counties and in 3 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 2.1 percent larger (+96,974 individuals) in July 2015 than it was in July 2014.

All of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the three largest metro areas, which collectively added 112,066 persons (+2.9 percent). Among individual metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+9 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+6.6 percent) and Raleigh (+4.4 percent).

Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Fayetteville (-10 percent), Jacksonville (-4 percent), and Goldsboro (-0.7 percent), while the size of the labor force in Greenville was unchanged.

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Over the year, unemployment rates fell in 4 of the 5 metro areas that constitute those regions and held steady in one. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 10.6 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in July totaled 5.8 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for virtually all of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest July unemployment rate (5.6 percent), followed by Charlotte (6 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6.3 percent).

In July, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 18,468 down from the 23,532 initial claims filed a year earlier (-21.5 percent). Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,316), followed by Wake (1,739), Guilford (1,189), Forsyth (789), and Cumberland (718) counties.

In July 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $23.1 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $33.7 million received in July 2014. This decline (-31.5 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that have restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Many labor markets across North Carolina, particularly the largest metropolitan ones, have experienced growth over the past year,” said Quinterno. “At the same time, the overall pace of recovery remains subdued, with many non-metropolitan places continuing to lose ground.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Fell Year-Over-Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“As typically happens at the start of the summer, seasonally unadjusted local unemployment rates generally rose between April and May,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Compared to May 2014, employment conditions improved across a broad swath of North Carolina, particularly in the state’s largest metropolitan regions.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.8 percent more payroll jobs (+75,200). In May 2015, the state gained 10,400 more jobs than it lost (+0.2 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 402,000 payroll jobs (+10.5 percent).

Between April and May of 2015, local unemployment rates rose in 97 of the state’s 100 counties, decreased in 2 counties, and held constant in 1 county. Individual county rates in May ranged from 4.5 percent in Buncombe County to 12 percent in Graham County. Overall, 3 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 62 counties posted rates between 5.9 and 9.9 percent; 35 counties had unemployment rates between 4.5 and 5.8 percent.

“The combined May unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 4.9 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 21.9 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 4.5 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 27 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 3.2 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier this year, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state now has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metro area.

Between April and May, unemployment rates rose in all 15 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (8.6 percent), followed by Fayetteville (7.6 percent) and Greenville (6.5 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.7 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (4.9 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (5.1 percent), Burlington (5.4 percent), and Wilmington (5.5 percent).

Compared to May 2014, unemployment rates in May 2015 were lower in 87 counties and in 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 52 counties and in 4 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 2.1 percent larger (+100,073 individuals) in May 2015 than it was in May 2014.

All of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in metro areas, which collectively added 115,949 persons (+3.2 percent). Among metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+10.1 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+6.7 percent) and Raleigh (+5.6 percent).

Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Fayetteville (-9.3 percent), Jacksonville (-3.4 percent), and Goldsboro (-0.9 percent), while the size of the labor force in Greenville essentially was unchanged.

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.2 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Over the year, unemployment rates fell in 4 of the 5 metro areas that constitute those regions and held steady in 1. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 10.9 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in May totaled 5.4 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for almost all of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest May unemployment rate (5.2 percent), followed by Charlotte (5.7 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (5.8 percent).

Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 19,822 down from the 23,306 initial claims filed a year earlier (-14.9 percent). Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,456), followed by Wake (1,677), Guilford (1,354), Forsyth (830), and Cumberland (729) counties.

In May 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $23.2 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $35.4 million received in May 2014. This decline (-34.5 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that have restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Many labor markets across North Carolina, particularly some of the largest metropolitan markets, have experienced improvements over the past year,” said Quinterno. “At the same time, the overall pace of recovery remains subdued, with many non-metropolitan places actually losing ground. Over five years into a recovery, the health of local labor markets still can’t be ignored.”

The post Unemployment Down Across NC Over the Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Through the first five months of 2015, North Carolina gained 40,100 more payroll jobs than it lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2014 was a gain of 41,500 jobs. Even with the payroll gains logged over the last few years, North Carolina now has just 75,200 more jobs, or 1.8 percent more jobs, than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between April 2015 and May 2015, North Carolina employers added 10,400 more jobs than they cut (+0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 8,900 positions (+0.3 percent), and public-sector payrolls added, on net, 1,500 jobs (+0.2 percent), due to net hiring by local governments. Within private industry, the education and health care services sector added the most payroll jobs (+2,800, +0.5 percent), followed by the construction (+2,400, +1.3 percent) and leisure and hospitality services sector (+2,300, +0.5 percent). Overall, payroll levels rose in every major private industry sector except for the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-3,700, -0.5 percent).

A revision to the April payroll data found that the state gained more jobs than first reported (+12,400 versus an original estimate of +11,100 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 75,200 more payroll positions (+1.8 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 402,000 positions (+10.5 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 108,800 more jobs than they cut (+2.6 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 109,400 positions (+3.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 600 jobs (-0.1 percent). Within private industry, every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+23,200 or +4.1 percent, with 52 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste management services subsector).

“The steady payroll growth experienced recently in North Carolina has not closed the state’s job gap, a gap that may be as high as 418,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has slightly more jobs than it did when the recession started, but the state’s labor market remains well short of a full recovery.”

According to the monthly household data, the statewide unemployment rate rose in May to 5.7 percent. Last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was attributable in large part to an increase in the size of the labor force (+29,396 persons, +0.6 percent). Over the month, the number of employed North Carolinians increased by 16,769 persons (+0.4 percent), and the number of unemployed persons rose by 12,627 individuals (+4.9 percent).

Over the past year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points, dropping to 5.7 percent from 6.3 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreasing by 19,275 persons (-6.6 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 158,939 individuals (+3.7 percent), while the size of the labor force increased by 139,664 persons (+3 percent). This suggests that the labor market managed to accommodate new members of the labor force and move some unemployed persons into jobs.

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61.4 percent from 60.3 percent) and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.9 percent from 56.5 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far above the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

Between May 2014 and May 2015, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 14.9 percent, dropping to 19,822 from 23,306. Also in May 2015, the state paid a (nominal) total of $23.2 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 34.5 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $35.4 million paid in May 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved in many ways over the past year, but those improvements have come slowly,” said Quinterno. “North Carolina has managed to add enough jobs to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force and to close some of the sizable job gap that was created during the recession, but the pace of growth has not accelerated radically. Incremental progress, at best, remains the troubling norm in North Carolina.”

The post NC’s Labor Market Improved Incrementally first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,665 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 34,127 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 5,456, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 53,138.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.97 million versus 3.89 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in the middle of 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were some eight years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,655) was 14.7 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (5,456), while the average number of continuing claims was 35.8 percent lower (34,127 versus 53,138). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 5/30/2015 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates declined throughout North Carolina over the past year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “While noteworthy, the declines in local unemployment rates do not alter the fact that many local labor markets still have not recovered from the last recession.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.5 percent more payroll jobs (+63,500). In April 2015, the state gained 11,100 more jobs than it lost (+0.3 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 390,000 payroll jobs (+10.2 percent).

Between March and April of 2015, local unemployment rates decreased in 89 of the state’s 100 counties, increased in 6 counties, and held constant in 5 counties. Individual county rates in April ranged from 3.9 percent in Orange and Buncombe counties to 12.8 percent in Graham County. Overall, 2 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 61 counties posted rates between 5.3 and 9.9 percent.

“The combined unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties in April was 4.2 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 21.8 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 5 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 8.4 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 4.5 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier this year, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 no-nmetropolitan ones. Additionally, the state now has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metro area.

Between March and April, unemployment rates fell in 13 of the state’s 15 metro areas, increased in 1 metro area, and held steady in 1 metro area. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (7.9 percent), followed by Fayetteville (6.8 percent) and New Bern (5.7 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.1 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (4.3 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (4.4 percent), Burlington (4.7 percent), and Wilmington and Winston-Salem (both 4.9 percent).

Compared to April 2014, unemployment rates in April 2015 were lower in 95 counties and in all 15 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 53 counties and in 2 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 1.9 percent larger (+89,077 individuals) in April 2015 than it was in April 2014.

All of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in metro areas, which collectively added 101,653 persons (+2.8 percent). Among metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+9.5 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+6.7 percent) and Raleigh (+4.7 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.2 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Over the year, unemployment rates fell in 4 of the 5 metro areas that constitute those regions and held steady in 1. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 10.4 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in April totaled 4.8 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest April unemployment rate (4.5 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad and Charlotte (both 5.1 percent).

Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 16,151 down from the 19,181 initial claims filed a year earlier (-15.8 percent). Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,250), followed by Wake (1,628), Guilford (1,115), Forsyth (697), and Cumberland (643) counties.

In April 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $22.4 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $38.5 million received in April 2014. This decline (-41.8 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Many labor markets across North Carolina, particularly some of the largest metropolitan ones, experienced improvements over the past year,” said Quinterno. “At the same time, many local labor markets still have not recovered from the last recession, and in many respects, the state’s labor market remains far from healthy—a reality that policymakers cannot choose to

The post Local Employment Conditions Improve first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“So far in 2015, North Carolina has gained 28,400 more payroll jobs than it has lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding number in 2014 was a gain of 32,000 jobs. Even with the steady payroll gains logged over the last few years, North Carolina has just 63,500 more jobs, or 1.5 percent more jobs, than it did 7.3 years earlier.”

Between March 2015 and April 2015, North Carolina employers added 11,100 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 7,200 positions (+0.2 percent), and public-sector payrolls added, on net, 3,900 jobs (+0.5 percent), due chiefly to net hiring by local governments. Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector added 3,100 payroll jobs (+0.4 percent), with all of the gain occurring in the retail trade subsector. The leisure and hospitality services sector also added 3,100 jobs (+0.7 percent), with 61 percent of the gain originating in the accommodation and food services subsector. Overall, payroll levels rose in six major private industrial sectors, and fell in four sectors.

A revision to the March payroll data found that the state lost fewer jobs than first reported (-1,800 jobs versus an original estimate of -2,600 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 63,500 more payroll positions (+1.5 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 390,300 positions (+10.2 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 106,600 more jobs than they cut (+2.6 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 108,200 positions (+3.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 1,600 jobs (-0.2 percent). Within private industry, virtually every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+23,000 or +4.1 percent, with 60 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste management services subsector).

“The steady payroll growth experienced over the past year remains insufficient to close the job gap that exists in North Carolina, a gap that may be as high as 425,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has slightly more jobs than it did when the recession started, but the state’s labor market remains well short of a full recovery.”

According to the monthly household data, the statewide unemployment rate rose in April to 5.5 percent, which still is one of the lowest monthly rates logged since early 2008. Last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was attributable in large part to an increase in the size of the labor force (+33,169 persons, +0.7 percent). Over the month, the number of employed North Carolinians increased by 25,712 persons (+0.6 percent), and the number of unemployed persons rose by 7,457 individuals (+2.9 percent).

Over the past year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by almost a full percentage point, dropping to 5.5 percent from 6.4 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreasing by 34,427 persons (-11.7 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 143,339 individuals (+3.3 percent), while the size of the labor force increased by 108,912 persons (+2.4 percent). This suggests that the labor market managed to accommodate new members of the labor force and move unemployed persons into jobs.

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61.1 percent from 60.4 percent) and the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.7 percent from 56.6 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

Between April 2014 and April 2015, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 16.4 percent, dropping to 18,384 from 21,988. Also in April 2015, the state paid a (nominal) total of $22.4 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 41.8 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $38.5 million paid in April 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved in many ways over the past year, but those improvements have come slowly,” said Quinterno. “In recent months, North Carolina has managed to add enough jobs to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force and to slowly close some of the sizable job gap that was created during the recession. Yet the labor market still is not generating enough jobs, quickly enough to employ all those who want work.”

The post North Carolina Labor Market Improves, But Slowly first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Click here to play the audio segment (9:00 minutes) in a new window.

The post Discussing An “Incomeless Recovery” first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The research was part of a larger study of state-level aging issues undertaken by the North Carolina Center for Public Policy Research. The complete project was published in early 2015 under the title “Serving Our Seniors.”

The post The Public Price of Growing Old first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Among other conclusions, the study found that the inflation-adjusted income of the median North Carolina household dropped by 8.5 percent, or $4,280, between 2007 and 2013, with declines occurring during the business cycle’s contraction and expansion phases. And, the real income of the typical North Carolina household in 2013 was effectively no different than it was in 1984.

The study also was featured in an an op-ed column in The (Raleigh, NC) News & Observer.

The post Income Trends In North Carolina After The “Great Recession” first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

• From 2007 to 2013, the inflation-adjusted income of the median North Carolina household dropped by more than 8%. Median income fell by 5.5% from 2007 to 2009 and by another 3.2% during the recovery that started in 2009 through 2013.
• From 2009 to 2013, real average household income fell or remained unchanged for every household income group in North Carolina except for the top 5%.
• The distribution of household income in North Carolina has grown more unequal since 2007, and the distribution of income in North Carolina in 2013 was more unequal than in the nation as a whole.
• The annual earnings of the median worker (ages 16+) fell by 7.4% between 2007 and 2013.
• Median annual earnings have fallen regardless of a worker’s level of education (ages 25+). Even typical workers with bachelor’s degrees or postgraduate degrees saw their earnings drop from 2007 to 2013.
• Real median household income in North Carolina was effectively no different in 2013 than in 1984.

The post North Carolina’s Incomeless Recovery first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The first quarter of 2015 proved to be a relatively uneventful one for job growth in North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “So far this year, the state has gained 16,500 more payroll jobs than it has lost. For comparison, the corresponding number in 2014 was a gain of 13,000 jobs. Yet even with the gains, however, North Carolina has just 51,600 more jobs, or 1.2 percent more jobs, than it did over seven years earlier.”

Between February 2015 and March 2015, North Carolina employers cut 2,600 more jobs than they added (-0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls lost, on net, 1,500 positions (-0.1 percent), and public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 1,100 jobs (-0.2 percent). Within private industry, the construction sector shed the most jobs (-2,400, -1.3 percent), while the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+2,700, +0.5 percent, with 55.6 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste management services subsector). Overall, payroll levels fell in six major private industrial sectors, rose in three, and were unchanged in one.

A revision to the February payroll data found that the state gained more jobs than first reported (+17,500 jobs versus an original estimate of +16,800 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 51,600 more payroll positions (+1.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,200 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 378,400 positions (+9.9 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 113,700 more jobs than they cut (+2.8 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 117,300 positions (+3.5 percent), while public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 3,600 jobs (-0.5 percent). Within private industry, virtually every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+32,900, +5.9 percent, with 64 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste management services subsector).

“The steady payroll growth experienced over the past year remains insufficient to close the job gap that exists in North Carolina,” noted Quinterno. “The fact that North Carolina now has slightly more jobs than it did when the recession started should not be taken to mean that the state’s labor market has recovered fully.”

According to the monthly household data, the statewide unemployment rate rose in March to 5.4 percent, which remains close to the lowest rate logged since early 2008. Last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was attributable in large part to an increase in the size of the labor force (+31,938 persons, +0.7 percent). Over the month, the number of employed North Carolinians increased by 26,012 persons (+0.6 percent), and the number of unemployed persons rose by 5,926 individuals (+2.4 percent).

Over the past year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by a full percentage point, dropping to 5.4 percent from 6.4 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreasing by 44,460 persons (-14.9 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 118,628 individuals (+2.7 percent), while the size of the labor force increased by 74,168 persons (+1.6 percent). This suggests that the labor market managed to accommodate new members of the labor force and move unemployed persons into jobs.

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 60.7 percent from 60.5 percent) and the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.5 percent from 56.6 percent). Nevertheless, both of these measures remain near the lowest monthly rates recorded at any time since January 1976.

Between March 2014 and March 2015, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 36.7 percent, dropping to 33,359 from 52,666. Also in March 2015, the state paid a (nominal) total of $29.5 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 40.3 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $49.4 million paid in March 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market recorded a number of positive improvements over the past year, but those gains must not be taken as signs that the labor market has mended itself,” said Quinterno. “Over five years into a recovery, North Carolina still faces a sizable jobs gap largely because the labor market simply is not generating enough jobs, fast enough to accommodate all those who want and need work.”

The post Statewide Labor Market Improves Year-Over-Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,155 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 37,394 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 5,000, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 62,840.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.87 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,155) was 16.5 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (5,000), while the average number of continuing claims was 40.5 percent lower (37,394 versus 62,840). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 3/28/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,499 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 38,677 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 4,972, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 64,499.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.87 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,499) was 9.5 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (4,972), while the average number of continuing claims was 40.8 percent lower (38,677 versus 64,499). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 3/21/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The first month of 2015 was a relatively uneventful one for North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “During the course of 2014, North Carolina gained 98,900 more jobs than it lost, but even with those gains, the state ended the year with just 35,100 more payroll jobs, for a total of 0.8 percent more jobs, than it had seven years earlier.”

Between December 2014 and January 2015, North Carolina employers added no more payroll jobs than they cut. Private-sector payrolls added, on net, 2,000 positions (+0.1 percent), but public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 2,000 jobs (-0.3 percent). Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector shed the most jobs (-11,700, -1.5 percent), while the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most jobs (+5,200, +1.2 percent). Payroll levels in most every other major industrial sector either rose or held steady between December and January.

A revision to the December payroll data found that the state lost rather than gained jobs that (-500 jobs versus an original estimate of +15,100 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, just 35,100 more payroll positions (+0.8 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,168 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 363,900 positions (+9.5 percent).

“Revisions to the 2014 data reveal that North Carolina netted fewer jobs over the course of the year than first reported,” noted Quinterno. “Initial estimates suggested that the number of payroll jobs in the state expanded by 2.8 percent, or 114,500 positions, over the course of the year. After revisions, however, the state netted 98,900 jobs, for a gain of 2.4 percent. That growth rate was slightly greater than the one of 2.1 percent logged in 2013.”

“The fact that North Carolina now has slightly more payroll jobs than it did seven years ago does not mean that the state’s labor market has recovered,” cautioned Quinterno. “Over that time, North Carolina needed to replace the jobs lost during the recession and add jobs to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population. Depending on the assumptions used, North Carolina is anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000 payroll jobs short of the number of jobs it should have added since late 2007 to keep pace with population growth.”

The household data recorded in January also pointed to few changes in the statewide labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate held steady at 5.4 percent, which was the lowest rate recorded since early 2008. Over the course of 2014, the unemployment rate fell by 1.3 percentage points, while the number of unemployed persons decreased by 62,060, or 19.9 percent. Over that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 46,906 (+1.1 percent), while the size of the labor force fell by 15,154 persons (-0.3 percent). As an aside, the size of North Carolina’s labor force has held steady at between 4.6 and 4.7 million persons since early 2010.

Over the course of 2014, some 24.4 percent of the decline in the number of unemployed North Carolinians was attributable mathematically to people who left the labor force entirely rather than to those who became employed. If those 15,154 leavers from the labor force were added back and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in December would have equaled 5.7 percent, Even if half of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 5.6 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market with problematic underlying dynamics. In December, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market was 59.8 percent, which was lower than the 60.7 percent figure logged a year ago, not to mention the lowest monthly rate recorded at any time since January 1976.

In addition, another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, fell over the year, dropping to 56.6 percent from 56.7 percent. The current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job now is just slightly above the lowest rate logged at any point since 1976 (56.3 percent).

Labor market data for 2014 provide additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in July 2013. During 2014, the year, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 47.8 percent, dropping to 31,806 from 60,889. Also in December, the state paid a (nominal) total of $27.6 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 53.3 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $59.1 million paid in December 2013.

“North Carolina netted jobs in 2014 at a rate faster than those posted in recent years, but even with those gains, the state’s labor market is in no way, shape, or form recovered from the last recession,” explained Quinterno. “North Carolina ended 2014 with just 0.8 percent more jobs than it had seven years earlier, and the state had 9.5 percent more unemployed residents and an unemployment rate that was 0.4 percentage points higher. And a smaller share of the working-age population was participating in the labor force than at any point in almost 40 years.”

“North Carolina’s labor market started 2015 the same way it ended 2014: mired in a painfully slow recovery that simply is not generating enough jobs, fast enough to accommodate all those who want and need work,” said Quinterno. “In many ways, the state’s labor market began 2014 stuck in the same low gear where it has spent most of the past five years.”

The post A Slow Start For North Carolina’s Job Market first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The post An Orientation To Labor Market Information first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,616 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 41,192 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 5,562, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 71,672.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.87 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were roughly seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is somewhat above the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,616) was 17 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (5,562), while the average number of continuing claims was 42.5 percent lower (41,192 versus 71,672). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 2/21/2015 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,857 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 42,066 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 5,651, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 72,516.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.89 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were roughly seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is somewhat above the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,857) was 14.1 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (5,651), while the average number of continuing claims was 42 percent lower (42,066 versus 72,516). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 2/14/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,156 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 42,705 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 5,803, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 73,116.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.89 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were roughly seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is just above the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is somewhat above the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,156) was 11.1 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (5,803), while the average number of continuing claims was 41.6 percent lower (42,705 versus 73,116). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 2/7/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,681 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 43,237 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,729, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 74,148.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.89 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were roughly seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is somewhat above the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is above the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,498) was 18.3 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,729), while the average number of continuing claims was 42.5 percent lower (42,656 versus 74,148). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 1/31/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The post Online Training: An Introduction to Labor Market Information first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 6,409 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 43,653 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 7,633, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 74,573.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.87 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is somewhat above the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is above the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (6,409) was 16 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (7,633), while the average number of continuing claims was 41.5 percent lower (43,653 versus 74,573). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are, at least in part, products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 1/24/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

“January was the 52nd-straight month in which the United States experienced net job growth,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the year, the economy netted an average of 267,000 jobs per month, a pace that has mitigated but has not undone the damage inflicted to the labor market by the last recession.”

In January, the nation’s employers added 257,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. All of the gain originated in the private sector (+267,000), while public employers cut 10,000 more positions than they added. Within the private sector, payroll levels increased the most in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+51,000, with 90 percent of the gain occurring in the retail trade subsector), followed by the education and health services (+46,000) and the construction and professional business services sectors (both +39,000). Payroll levels in all other major industry groups rose in January or essentially held steady.

Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for November and December underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 752,000 jobs over those two months, not the 605,000 positions previously reported. With those changes, the average pace of monthly job growth in the United States recorded over the past year rose to 267,000.

“The United States has experienced steady job growth for over four years, but the pace of growth has been modest relative to the country’s needs,” noted Quinterno. “While the United States has more payroll jobs than it did in December 2007, the current average monthly rate of job growth is insufficient to close the jobs gap caused by the recession anytime soon.

After accounting for annual statistical updates, labor market conditions as measured by the household survey improved in January. In January, the number of Americans who were employed increased by 435,000 persons. At the same time, the overall size of the labor force rose by 703,000 persons. Meanwhile, the share of working-age Americans participating in the labor force rose in January (62.9 percent), while the share of working-age Americans with a job was unchanged (59.3 percent).

In January, 9 million Americans were unemployed (5.7 percent). Another 6.8 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. An additional 682,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether; those persons were part of a larger population of 2.2 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher for adult male workers than adult female workers (5.3 percent versus 5.1 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (10.3 percent) and Hispanic workers (6.7 percent) than among white ones (4.9 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 18.8 percent.

Additionally, 5.3 percent of all veterans were unemployed, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 7.9 percent. At the same time, 11.9 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work. (Both not seasonally adjusted.)

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in January. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 11.3 percent. Among unemployed workers, 31.5 percent had been jobless for at least six months, and the average spell of unemployment equaled 32.3 weeks.

In January, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 47.4 percent of unemployed persons. Another 31.6 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11.5 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 9.5 percent of the total.

“The January employment report contained a number of positive developments, although annual technical updates to the various data series complicate the process of drawing meaningful conclusions,” observed Quinterno. “Labor market conditions nevertheless remain sub-optimal, with the problems of underemployment and long-term unemployment remaining particularly pronounced. Weak conditions, in turn, are preventing American workers from experiencing robust improvements in their wages and living standards.”

The post US Labor Market Improved In January first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 6,723 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 43,228 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 8,126, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 75,262.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.94 million versus 3.86 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (6,723) was 17.3 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (8,126), while the average number of continuing claims was 41 percent lower (43,228 versus 73,262). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such large declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 1/17/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates declined across all of North Carolina over the course of 2014,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “While noteworthy, the declines in local unemployment rates do not alter the fact that many local labor markets continue to underperform when measured in relation to a broader set of important indicators.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.2 percent more payroll jobs (+50,700). In December 2014, the state gained 15,100 more jobs than it lost (+0.4 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,500 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 379,500 payroll jobs (+9.9 percent).

Between November and December of 2014, local unemployment rates decreased in 56 of the state’s 100 counties, increased in 28 counties, and held constant in 16 counties. Individual county rates in December ranged from 3.8 percent in Chatham County to 12.3 percent in Graham County. Overall, 2 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 39 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to lag behind metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In December, 6 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 5 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 7.3 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 1 percent smaller. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 6.9 percent. In fact, North Carolina’s total labor force in December would have been 2 percent larger if the size of the non-metropolitan labor force had held steady at its pre-recession level, all else being equal.”

Between November and December, unemployment rates fell in 11 of the state’s 14 metro areas and held steady in three metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (7.7 percent), followed by Fayetteville (6.1 percent) and Goldsboro (5.7 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (4.2 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (4.3 percent), and Winston-Salem (4.8 percent).

Compared to December 2013, unemployment rates in December 2014 were lower in 99 counties and in all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 90 counties and in 12 metros. And the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 0.9 percent smaller (-42,245 individuals) in December 2014 than it was in December 2013.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the fastest rate (-4.2 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-2.8 percent) and Fayetteville (-2.7 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72.6 percent of the state’s labor force, with 51.5 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 5.8 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in December totaled 4.7 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (4.3 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (5.1 percent) and Charlotte (5.3 percent).

The local employment report for December also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in 2013. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 26,767, down from the 33,157 initial claims filed a year earlier (-19.3 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,569), followed by Wake (1,688), Guilford (1,466), Cumberland (917), and Forsyth (840) counties.

In December 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $28.5 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $62.2 million received in December 2013. This decline (-54.2 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Many labor markets across North Carolina, particularly some of the largest metropolitan ones, have experienced improvements over the past year,” said Quinterno. “While those improvements are important, they must not obscure the fact that many local labor markets—non-metropolitan ones especially—continue to underperform and have not yet recovered from the last recession.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Fell In 2014 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 6,321 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 41,721 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 7,843, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 73,589.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.93 million versus 3.89 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were seven years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (6,732) was 14.2 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (7,843), while the average number of continuing claims was 41 percent lower (43,448 versus 73,589). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such large declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 1/10/15 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Judged by recent standards, 2014 proved to be a relatively decent year for job growth in North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The state’s 2.8 percent rate of job growth somewhat exceeded the national growth rate of 2.1 percent and was better than the state-level rates recorded in any year since the onset of North Carolina’s recovery in 2010.”

During 2014, North Carolina employers added 114,500 more jobs than they cut (+2.8 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 119,900 positions (+3.5 percent), while public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 5,400 jobs (-0.8 percent), owing entirely to net reductions by state government (-7,900, -3.8 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+40,200, +7.1 percent), with 50.2 percent of that gain originating in the administrative and waste management subsector. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector netted 17,600 payroll jobs (+2.3 percent, with 57.4 percent of the gain originating in the retail trade subsector), followed by the construction (+12,500, +7.2 percent) and leisure and hospitality services (+11,800, +2.7 percent) sectors.

Overall, no major private industrial sector experienced a net decline in payroll size in 2014.

A revision to the November 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 700 more jobs that month than first estimated (+17,100 versus +16,400). With the revision, North Carolina now has, on net, slightly more payroll jobs (+50,700, +1.2 percent) than it did in December 2007, which is when the “Great Recession” began nationally. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,543 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 379,500 positions (+9.9 percent).

“The fact that North Carolina now has slightly more payroll jobs than it did seven years ago does not mean that the state’s labor market has recovered,” cautioned Quinterno. “Over the past seven years, North Carolina has needed not only to replace the jobs lost during the recession, but also to add jobs to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population. Depending on the assumptions used, North Carolina is anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000 payroll jobs short of the number it should have added since late 2007 to accommodate population growth.”

During 2014, the statewide unemployment rate as measured in the monthly household survey dropped sharply, falling to 5.5 percent from 6.9 percent. Additionally, the December unemployment rate was the lowest one logged in any month since mid-2008. Over the course of 2014, the number of employed North Carolinians rose (+25,339, + 0.6 percent), while the number of unemployed persons fell sharply (-67,584, -20.9 percent). Much of the decline in the unemployment rate therefore was attributable mathematically to a contraction in the size of the labor force (-42,245, -0.9 percent). In fact, the size of North Carolina’s labor force in December was smaller than it has been in any month since January 2010.

Over the course of 2014, some 62.5 percent of the decline in the number of unemployed North Carolinians was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely rather than to those who became employed. If those 42,245 leavers from the labor force were added back and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in December would have equaled 6.4 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 6 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market with problematic underlying dynamics. In December, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market was 59.8 percent, which was lower than the 61.1 percent figure logged a year ago, not to mention the lowest monthly rate recorded at any time since January 1976.

In addition, another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, fell over the year, dropping to 56.5 percent from 56.8 percent. The current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job now is just slightly above the lowest rate logged at any point since 1976 (56.3 percent).

The December labor market report provides additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in July 2013. Over the year, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 47.8 percent, dropping to 31,806 from 60,889.  Also in December, the state paid a (nominal) total of $27.6 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 53.3 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $59.1 million paid in December 2013.

“North Carolina netted jobs in 2014 at a rate faster than those posted in recent years, but even with those gains, the state’s labor market is still not recovered,” added Quinterno. “Compared to seven years ago, North Carolina has just 1.2 percent more payroll jobs, and it has 11.7 percent more unemployed residents and an unemployment rate that is 0.5 percentage points higher. And a smaller share of the working-age population is participating in the labor force than at any point in almost 40 years.”

The post North Carolina Payrolls Expand in 2014 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

“December was the 51st-straight month in which the United States experienced net job growth,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the year, the economy netted an average of 246,000 jobs per month, a pace that has mitigated but has not undone the damage inflicted to the labor market by the last recession.”

In December, the nation’s employers added 252,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. Some 95 percent of the gain originated in the private sector (+240,000), while public employers added 12,000 more positions than they cut. Within the private sector, payroll levels increased the most in the professional and business services sector (+52,000, with 67.7 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by the construction and education and health services sectors (both +48,000). Payroll levels in all other major industry groups rose in December or essentially held steady.

Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for October and November underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 614,000 jobs over those two months, not the 564,000 positions previously reported. With those changes, the average pace of monthly job growth in the United States recorded over the past year rose to 246,000.

“The United States has experienced steady job growth for over four years, but the pace of growth has been modest relative to the country’s needs,” noted Quinterno. “While the United States has more payroll jobs than it did in December 2007, the current average monthly rate of job growth is insufficient to close the jobs gap caused by the recession—a gap now estimated at 5.6 million jobs—anytime soon.”

Data from the household survey offered mixed news about the health of the United States’ labor market. In December, the number of Americans who were employed increased by 111,000 persons (+0.1 percent). At the same time, the overall size of the labor force decreased by 273,000 persons (-0.2 percent) between November and December. Meanwhile, the share of working-age Americans participating in the labor force fell in December, while the share of working-age Americans with a job was unchanged.

In December, 8.7 million Americans were unemployed (5.6 percent), down 4.2 percent from November. Another 6.8 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions, and an additional 740,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.3 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

Compared to a year ago, 2.8 million more Americans were working in December, and 1.7 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (59.2 percent) remained at a depressed level, while the share of the population that was participating in the labor force fell to 62.7 percent from 62.8 percent.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher for adult male workers than adult female workers (5.3 percent versus 5 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (10.4 percent) and Hispanic workers (6.5 percent) than among white ones (4.8 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 16.8 percent.

Additionally, 4.7 percent of all veterans were unemployed in December, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 6.9 percent. At the same time, 11.2 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in December. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 11.2 percent, down from the 13.1 percent rate logged a year ago. Among unemployed workers, 31.9 percent had been jobless for at least six months, as opposed to 37.3 percent a year earlier. And the average spell of unemployment equaled 32.8 weeks, down from 36.8 weeks in December 2013.

In December, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 49.2 percent of unemployed persons. Another 30.7 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 9.1 percent of the total.

“The December employment report offered a portrait of a national job market that is improving yet is by no means healed,” observed Quinterno. “Weak labor market conditions, in turn, are preventing American workers from experiencing improvements in their wages and living standards.”

The post US Labor Market Conditions Improved In Dec. first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The same video segment also contains a presentation on demographic trends by Rebecca Tippett of Carolina Demography and an overview of macroeconomic developments by Jim Kleckley of the Bureau of Business Research.

The post An Overview Of NC’s Rural Labor Market first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates declined, often sharply, across much of North Carolina over the past year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “At the same time, the reductions do not alter the fact that unemployment remains a pressing economic and problem almost seven years after the onset of the last recession.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 0.8 percent more payroll jobs (+34,900). In November, the state gained 16,400 more jobs than it lost (+0.4 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 363,700 positions (+9.5 percent).

Between October and November of 2014, local unemployment rates decreased in 72 of the state’s 100 counties, increased in 20 counties, and held constant in eight counties. Individual county rates in November ranged from 3.7 percent in County to 11.4 percent in Graham County. Overall, 2 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 41 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to trail metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In November, 6 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 5.1 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 5.7 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 1.5 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 5.3 percent. In fact, North Carolina’s total labor force in November would have been 1.5 percent larger if the size of the non-metropolitan labor force had held steady at its pre-recession level, all else being equal.”

Between October and November, unemployment rates fell in all of the state’s 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (7.9 percent), followed by Fayetteville (6.2 percent) and Goldsboro (5.8 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4 percent), followed by Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary (both 4.3 percent).

Compared to November 2013, unemployment rates in November 2014 were lower in all 100 counties and in all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 89 counties and in 12 metros. And the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 0.7 percent smaller (-31,665 individuals) in November 2014 than it was in November 2013.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the fastest rate (-3.6 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Fayetteville (-2.9 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-2.8 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72.5 percent of the state’s labor force, with 51.3 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 6.7 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in November totaled 4.9 percent, as compared to 6.8 percent in November 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (4.4 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (5.2 percent) and Charlotte (5.4 percent).

The local employment report for November also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in 2013. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 20,011, down from the 26,273 initial claims filed a year earlier (-23.4 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,039), followed by Wake (1,494), Guilford (1,014), Cumberland (692), and Forsyth (598) counties.

In November 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $27 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $55.7 million received in November 2013. This decline (-51.5 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for insurance compensation.

“Many labor markets across North Carolina have experienced improvements over the past year,” said Quinterno. “While those improvements are important, they must not obscure the fact that many local labor markets—non-metropolitan ones in particular—continue to underperform and have not yet recovered from the last recession.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Down Across NC first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

“November was the 50th-straight month in which the United States experienced net job growth,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the year, the economy netted an average of 228,000 jobs per month, a pace that reduced—but did not fully repair—the damage inflicted on the national labor market during the last recession.”

In November, the nation’s employers added 321,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. Some 98 percent of the gain originated in the private sector (+314,000), while public employers added 7,000 more positions than they cut. Within the private sector, payroll levels increased the most in the professional and business services sector (+86,000, with 48.5 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+71,000, with 70.7 percent of the gain originating in the retail trade subsector) and the education and health services sector (+38,000, with 76.1 percent of the gain originating in the health care subsector.

Payroll levels in all other major industry groups either rose in November or were unchanged from the October levels.

Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for September and October underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 514,000 jobs over those two months, not the 470,000 positions previously reported. With those changes, the average pace of monthly job growth in the United States recorded over the past year rose to 228,000.

“The United States has experienced steady job growth for over four years, but the pace of growth has been modest relative to the country’s needs,” noted Quinterno. “While the United States has more payroll jobs than it did in December 2007, the current average monthly rate of job growth is insufficient to close the jobs gap caused by the recession—a gap now estimated at a little under 6 million jobs—anytime soon.”

Data from the household survey offered mixed news about the health of the United States’ labor market. In November, the number of Americans who were employed was essentially no different than it was in October. At the same time, the overall size of the labor force rose by 119,000 persons (+0.1 percent) between October and November. Meanwhile, the share of working-age Americans participating in the labor force held steady in November, as did the share of working-age Americans with a job.

In November, 9.1 million Americans were unemployed (5.8 percent), while 6.9 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. Another 698,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.1 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

Compared to a year ago, 2.8 million more Americans were working in November, and 1.7 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (59.2 percent) remained at a depressed level, while the share of the population that was participating in the labor force fell to 62.8 percent from 63 percent.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher for adult male workers than adult female workers (5.4 percent versus 5.3 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (11.1 percent) and Hispanic workers (6.6 percent) than among white ones (4.9 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 17.7 percent.

Additionally, 4.5 percent of all veterans were unemployed in November, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 5.7 percent. At the same time, 10.8 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in November. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 11.4 percent, down from the 13.1 percent rate logged a year ago. Among unemployed workers, 30.7 percent had been jobless for at least six months, as opposed to 37.4 percent a year earlier. And the average spell of unemployment equaled 33 weeks, down from 37.1 weeks in November 2013.

In November, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 49 percent of unemployed persons. Another 30.3 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11.6 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 9.1 percent of the total.

“The November employment report offered a portrait of a national job market that is improving yet remains far from healed,” observed Quinterno. “Weak growth, in turn, is preventing American workers from experiencing improvements in their wages and living standards despite the fact that they have become more economically productive.”

The post US Labor Market Nets Jobs In November first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,219 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 40,496 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,772, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 70,962.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.92 million versus 3.86 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were almost 7 years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,219) was 22.9 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,772), while the average number of continuing claims was 42.9 percent lower (40,496 versus 70,962). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such large declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 11/15/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The October employment report was consistent with the pattern of modest jobs growth that has characterized North Carolina’s slow recovery from the last recession,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “North Carolina netted jobs in October and now has slightly more jobs than it did in December 2007, but that is not the same thing as a full labor market recovery.”

Between September 2014 and October 2014, North Carolina employers added 17,200 more jobs than they cut (+0.4 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 13,700 positions (+0.4 percent), and public-sector payrolls netted 3,500 jobs (+0.5 percent), owing primarily to hiring by local governments (+7,500, +1.7 percent). Within private industry, the education and health services sector netted the most jobs (+6,100, +1.1 percent), with all of the hiring originating in the health care and social services subsector. The leisure and hospitality sector netted 3,500 jobs (+0.8 percent, with 77.1 percent of the gain originating in the accommodation and food service subsector), followed by the other services sector (+2,300, +1.5 percent). Meanwhile, the finance sector shed the most jobs (-2,000 jobs, -0.9 percent). All other major industrial sectors experienced modest changes in payroll sizes.

A revision to the September 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 3,300 fewer jobs that month than first estimated (+10,700 versus +14,000). With the revision, North Carolina now has, on net, slightly more payroll jobs (+15,900, +0.4 percent) than it did in December 2007, which is when the “Great Recession” began nationally. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,155 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 344,700 positions (+9 percent).

Note that the return of North Carolina’s payroll size to the pre-recession level does not mean that the state’s labor market has recovered. Over the past 6.75 years, North Carolina has needed not only to replace the jobs lost during the recession, but also to add jobs to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population. By one estimate, North Carolina still is 441,000 payroll jobs short of the number it should have added since late 2007 to accommodate the 11 percent rate of population growth that has occurred since then. At the current pace of net job growth, it would take another 72 months to fill that gap, holding all else equal.

“Although North Carolina has experienced job growth in 2014, the pace of growth has been modest,” noted Quinterno. “Over the first 10 months of the year, payroll employment in North Carolina expanded by 1.9 percent. The comparable rate in 2013 was 2 percent, and in 2012, the comparable rate was 1.6 percent. These rates are consistent with a sluggish recovery.”

In contrast to the payroll data, the household data recorded October pointed to a labor market that has yet to recover the ground lost during the recession. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate dipped to 6.3 percent from 6.7 percent, while the number of unemployed individuals fell by 16,685 (-5.4 percent). At the same time, the number of employed North Carolinians rose (+17,508, +0.4 percent). And the size of the labor force essentially held steady at 4.6 million persons.

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 1.2 percentage points, dropping to 6.7 percent from 7.5 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreasing by 54,551 persons (-15.7 percent). However, 47.8 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely rather than to those who became employed. If those 26,104 leavers from the labor force were added back and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in October would have equaled 6.8 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 6.6 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market with problematic underlying dynamics. In October, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market was 60.3 percent, which was lower than the 61.3 percent figure logged a year ago and was tied for the lowest monthly rate recorded at any time since January 1976.

In addition, another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, fell over the year, dropping to 56.5 percent from 56.8 percent. The current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job is just slightly above the lowest rate logged at any point since 1976.

The October labor market report provides additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in July 2013. Between September and October, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 10.3 percent, dropping to 33,283 from 37,107. Compared to a year earlier, 27,842 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in October (-45.5 percent).

Also in October, the state paid a (nominal) total of $27.9 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 53.7 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $60.2 million paid in October 2013.

“North Carolina netted jobs in October, but even with those gains, the state simply is not adding jobs at a rapid enough pace to keep pace with the growth in the working-age population, and that is why joblessness remains a problem across much of the state,” added Quinterno. “While the state now has the same number of jobs as it did when the last recession started, that development does not signal a full labor market recovery. On the contrary, weak job growth and joblessness remain significant problems.”

The post North Carolina Payrolls Grow In October first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,178 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 42,708 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,573, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 70,488.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.92 million versus 3.85 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than 6.5 years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,043) was 19.2 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,238), while the average number of continuing claims was 38.3 percent lower (43,613 versus 70,675). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such large declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 11/1/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Among other findings, the project estimated that the WPFP and its state partners have generated or protected approximately $7.6 billion in state investments on behalf of low-income working families since 2002. These investments have occurred in the broad areas of postsecondary education and skills training; economic development; and social insurance and family benefits, with the bulk of the investments occurring in the area of postsecondary education and skills training.

The post Strengthening State Policies For Low-Income Working Families first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The day-long course includes modules on “Labor Market Information in Context,” “Labor Market Information in Detail,” “Accessing Labor Market Information,” and “Talking about Labor Market Information,” as well as a practical group exercise. Sessions have been delivered in the North Carolina cities of Raleigh, Hickory, and Boone.

The course is based on material contained in South by North Strategies’ book “Running The Numbers: A Practical Guide to Regional Economic and Social Analysis” (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2014).

The post Understanding & Using Regional Labor Market Information first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

The sessions took place on October 16, 2014 in Greensboro and were based on material covered in the book “Running The Numbers: A Practical Guide to Regional Economic and Social Analysis” (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2014).

The post Using & Communicating Labor Market Information first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Among other topics, Quinterno discussed how the the recession spared no community in North Carolina, how the recession occurred alongside the increased “metropolitinization” of the state’s economy, how different types of non-metro communities have fared,  and how the recession has exacerbated certain workforce challenges in rural communities. A copy of the presentation is available online and also is embedded below.

Other presenters discussed demographic changes in rural North Carolina, the outlook for the rural economy, and promising community development models and practices. All of those presentations also are available online.

The post North Carolina’s Rural Labor Market & “The Great Recession” first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,043 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 43,613 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,238, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 70,675.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.92 million versus 3.85 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than 6.5 years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,043) was 19.2 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,238), while the average number of continuing claims was 38.3 percent lower (43,613 versus 70,675). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such large declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 10/18/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,945 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 43,895 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,170, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 71,342.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.91 million versus 3.84 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than 6.5 years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,945) was 19.9 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,170), while the average number of continuing claims was 38.5 percent lower (43,895 versus 71,342). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such large declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 10/11/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates have fallen steadily across much of North Carolina over the past year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “At the same time, the declines do not alter the fact that unemployment remains a serious problem. In fact, 34 counties and 4 metro areas had unemployment rates in September 2014 that exceeded those posted in September 2008.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 0.1 percent more payroll jobs (+2,000). In September, the state gained 14,000 more jobs than it lost (+0.3 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,015 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 330,800 positions (+8.6 percent).

Between August and September 2014, local unemployment rates decreased in 98 of the state’s 100 counties, increased in one county, and held constant in one county. Individual county rates in September ranged from 4.2 percent in Currituck County to 12.2 percent in Graham County. Overall, 3 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 60 counties posted rates between 6.1 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to lag behind metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In September, 6.8 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 5.8 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 5.1 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 15.4 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 3.9 percent. In fact, North Carolina’s total labor force in September would have been 1.1 percent larger if the size of the non-metropolitan labor force had held steady, all else being equal”

Between August and September, unemployment rates fell in all of the state’s 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (8.8 percent), followed by Fayetteville (7.1 percent) and Goldsboro, Jacksonville, and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (all at 6.5 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.6 percent), followed by Durham-Chapel Hill (4.9 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (5 percent).

Compared to September 2013, unemployment rates in September 2014 were lower in 98 counties and all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 78 counties and in 9 metros. And the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 0.7 percent smaller (-31,038 individuals) in September 2014 than it was in September 2013.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the fastest rate (-2.9 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Fayetteville (-2.3 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-1.9 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72.3 percent of the state’s labor force, with 51.1 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 6.2 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in September totaled 5.6 percent, as compared to 6 percent in September 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (5.1 percent), followed by Charlotte (6.2 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6.1percent).

The local employment report for September also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in 2013. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 21,023, down from the 26,051 initial claims filed a year earlier (-19.3 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,517), followed by Wake (1,767), Guilford (1,106), Cumberland (786), and Forsyth (698) counties.

In September 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $36.3 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $80.4 million received in September 2013. This decline (-54.9 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for insurance compensation.

Additionally, the state’s decision to exit the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program reduced the amount of federal unemployment insurance compensation flowing into the state. Between September 2013 and September 2014, the amount of federal unemployment insurance benefits paid to North Carolinians fell by 71.7 percent, dropping to a (nominal) total of $1.3 million from a (nominal) total of $4.6 million. (Note that the US Congress allowed the EUC program to expire at the start of 2014.)

“Even with recent improvements in certain important indicators, many local labor markets—non-metropolitan ones in particular—continue to underperform and have yet to recover from the last recession,” said Quinterno. “The September data were consistent with the basic pattern of slow growth that has characterized the state’s economy for the past 4.5 years.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Fall Across North Carolina first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The September employment report was consistent with the relatively uninspiring performance turned in by North Carolina’s labor market in recent years,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “North Carolina netted jobs in September, but the state also experienced declines in the size of the labor force and in the number of employed persons. While certain conditions in the state have improved over the last year, the labor market remains far from recovered.”

Between August 2014 and September 2014, North Carolina employers added 14,000 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 16,700 positions (+0.5 percent), but public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 2,700 jobs (-0.4 percent), owing primarily to net reductions by state government (-3,200, -1.6 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+7,400, +1.3 percent), with 87.8 percent of that gain originating in the administrative and waste services subsector. The education and health services sector netted 4,700 jobs (+0.8 percent), followed by the finance sector (+4,000, +1.9 percent). Meanwhile, the leisure and hospitality services sector shed the most jobs (-2,700 jobs, -0.6 percent). All other major industrial sectors experienced modest changes in payroll sizes.

A revision to the August 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 2,300 more jobs that month than first estimated (+14,800 versus +12,500). With the revision, North Carolina now has, on net, slightly more payroll jobs (+2,000, +0.1 percent) than it did in December 2007, which is when the “Great Recession” began nationally. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,015 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 330,800 positions (+8.6 percent).

Note that the return of North Carolina’s payroll size to the pre-recession level does not mean that the state’s labor market has recovered. Over the past 6.75 years, North Carolina needed not only to replace the jobs lost during the recession, but also to add jobs to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population. By one estimate, North Carolina is 449,000 payroll jobs short of the number it should have added since late 2007 to accommodate population growth.

“Although 2014 has seen job growth across North Carolina, the pace of payroll growth remains moderate,” noted Quinterno. “Over the first nine months of the year, the state netted an average of 7,300 jobs per month, a pace that is insufficient to close the state’s job gap anytime soon.”

In contrast to the payroll data, the household data recorded in September painted a more negative picture of the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate dipped to 6.7 percent from 6.8 percent, while the number of unemployed individuals fell by 4,563 (-1.4 percent). At the same time, the number of employed North Carolinians dropped slightly (-5,622, -0.1 percent). The decline in the unemployment rate therefore was attributable mathematically to a contraction in the size of the labor force (-10,185 persons, -0.2 percent).

Over the past year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by a full percentage point, dropping to 6.7 percent from 7.7 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreasing by 49,243 persons (-13.7 percent). However, 63 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely rather than those who became employed. If those 31,038 leavers from the labor force were added back and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in September would have equaled 7.3 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 7 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market with problematic underlying dynamics. In September, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market was 60.3 percent, which was lower than the 61.5 percent figure logged a year ago, not to mention the lowest monthly rate recorded at any time since January 1976.

In addition, another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, fell over the year, dropping to 56.3 percent from 56.7 percent. The current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job now is tied at the lowest level logged at any point since 1976.

The September labor market report provides additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented in July 2013. Between August and September, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 6 percent, dropping to 37,107 from 39,466. Compared to a year earlier, 30,362 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in September (-45 percent).

Also in September, the state paid a (nominal) total of $35 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 53.8 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $75.8 million paid in September 2013.

“North Carolina netted jobs in September, but even with those gains, the state is not adding jobs at a rapid enough pace to keep pace with the growth in the working-age population,” added Quinterno. “At the same time, a look beyond recent drops in the unemployment rate will reveal a labor market with underlying dynamics inconsistent with those associated with a robust recovery.”

The post North Carolina Payrolls Expand In September first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,658 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 46,156 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,014, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 74,358.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.9 million versus 3.8 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than 6.5 years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,658) was 22.5 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,014), while the average number of continuing claims was 37.9 percent lower (46,156 versus 74,358). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 9/20/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates decreased across most of North Carolina over the past year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “At the same time, the declines do not alter the fact that unemployment remains a serious problem. In fact, 56 counties and 11 metro areas had unemployment rates in August 2014 that exceeded those posted in August 2008.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 0.3 percent fewer payroll jobs (-14,300). In August, the state gained 12,500 more jobs than it lost (+0.3 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,820 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 314,500 positions (+8.2 percent). At that rate, all else equal, it would take until late 2014 for the state to have as many payroll jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

Between July and August 2014, local unemployment rates increased in 74 of the state’s 100 counties, decreased in 12 counties, and held constant in 14 counties. Individual county rates in August ranged from 4 percent in Currituck County to 13.4 percent in Graham County. Overall, 9 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 54 counties posted rates between 7 and 9.9 percent. (Because seasonal fluctuations in labor markets are pronounced in the summer, month-to-month changes provide limited insight into trends.)

“Non-metropolitan labor markets still lag behind metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In August, 7.7 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 6.7 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 4.1 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 32 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has increased by 6.4 percent. In fact, North Carolina’s total labor force in August would have been 1.2 percent larger if the size of the nonmetropolitan labor force had held steady, all else being equal”

Between July and August, unemployment rates rose in 9 of the state’s 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (10.2 percent), followed by Fayetteville (8.2 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (7.5 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (5.3 percent), followed by Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary (both 5.7 percent).

Compared to August 2013, unemployment rates in August 2014 were lower in 96 counties and all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 84 counties and in 10 metros. And the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 0.4 percent smaller (-18,567 individuals) in August 2014 than it was in August 2013.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the fastest rate (-3.6 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-2 percent) and Fayetteville (-1.9 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72.4 percent of the state’s labor force, with 51.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros, though improved in recent months, remains subdued. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 5.3 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in August totaled 6.5 percent, as compared to 6.3 percent in August 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (5.8 percent), followed by Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad (both 7 percent).

The local employment report for August also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented last summer. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 20,279, down from the 28,443 initial claims filed a year earlier (-28.7 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,453), followed by Wake (1,695), Guilford (1,107), Cumberland (709), and Forsyth (639) counties.

In August 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $34.2 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $80.1 million received in August 2013. This decline (-57.3 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for insurance compensation.

Additionally, the state’s decision to exit the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program reduced the amount of federal unemployment insurance compensation flowing into the state in August. Between August 2013 and August 2014, the amount of federal unemployment insurance benefits paid to North Carolinians fell by 75.6 percent, dropping to a (nominal) total of $1.1 million from a (nominal) total of $4.5 million. (Note that the US Congress allowed the EUC program to expire at the start of 2014.)

“Even with recent improvements in certain important indicators, many local labor markets in North Carolina continue to underperform and have yet to recover from the last recession,” said Quinterno. “The August data were consistent with the basic pattern of slow growth that has defined the state’s economy for the past 4.5 years.”

The post Local Unemployment Rates Down over The Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The August employment report offered little evidence of a labor market that has turned a corner,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Last month, North Carolina netted some jobs, but at the same time, the state experienced declines in the size of the labor force and the number of employed residents. Although conditions in the state are better in some ways than they were a year ago, they still have not returned to healthy levels.”

Between July 2014 and August 2014, North Carolina employers added 12,500 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted just 4,000 positions (+0.1 percent), and public-sector payrolls gained, on net, 8,500 jobs (+1.2 percent), owing primarily to net hiring by local governments (+6,700, +1.6 percent). Within private industry, the education and health services sector netted the most jobs (+2,700, +0.5 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+2,500, +0.4 percent) and the manufacturing sector (+1,900, +0.4 percent). Meanwhile, the leisure and hospitality services sector shed the most jobs (-3,300 jobs, -0.7 percent), followed by the construction sector (-1,300, -0.7 percent). All other major industrial sectors experienced few changes in payroll sizes.

A revision to the July 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 1,400 more jobs that month than first estimated (+17,200 versus +15,800). With the revision, North Carolina has, on net, 14,300 fewer payroll positions (-0.3 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,800 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 314,500 positions (+8.2 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until later this year for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“While positive, the pace of payroll growth in North Carolina has not accelerated radically in recent years,” noted Quinterno. “Between August 2013 and August 2014, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina grew by 2.4 percent. Between August 2012 and August 2013, the total of number payroll jobs in North Carolina rose by 1.7 percent, while between August 2011 and August 2012, the rate of growth was 1.6 percent. In effect, North Carolina has been mired in a pattern of slow job growth for the past several years.”

The household data recorded in August contained negative news about the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate rose to 6.8 percent, which was the highest rate logged so far this year. Furthermore, the underlying dynamics of the labor market were unimpressive. Last month, the number of employed persons in the state fell by 28,666 (-0.7 percent), while the number of unemployed persons increased by 10,404 (+3.4 percent). And last month, the size of the North Carolina labor force decreased by 18,262 persons (-0.4 percent).

While the changes in household data recorded between July and August were negative, the changes over the past year were more mixed. Between August 2013 and August 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 57,505 persons (-15.4 percent), but 49.7 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely. If those 28,567 persons were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in August would have equaled 7.3 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 7.1 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of an underperforming labor market. In August, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market was 60.5 percent, which was lower than the 61.6 percent figure logged a year ago, as well as the lowest monthly rate recorded at any time since January 1976.

In addition, another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, fell over the year, dropping to 56.4 percent from 56.7 percent. The current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job now is just 0.1 percentage points above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in 2011.

The August labor market report provides additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented last summer. Between July and August, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance rose by 1 percent, increasing to 39,466 from 39,066. Compared to a year earlier, however, 35,024 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in August (-47 percent).

Also in August, the state paid a (nominal) total of $33.1 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 56.2 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $75.6 million paid in August 2013.

“North Carolina netted jobs in August, but the current pace of job growth is not much greater than the rate needed to keep pace with population growth,” added Quinterno. “Observers also should be concerned that the number of unemployed North Carolinians and the statewide unemployment rate have trended upward in recent months, while the number of employed persons has trended downward. Keep in mind, too, that a steady decline in the size of the labor force is masking some of the broader problems in the labor market and actually making conditions appear somewhat better than they are.”

The post NC’S Labor Market Wilts In August first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,663 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 49,975 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,065, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 79,689.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.9 million versus 3.8 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims  is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,663) was 23.1 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,065), while the average number of continuing claims was 37.3 percent lower (49,975 versus 79,689). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 8/30/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,823 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 51,287 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,470, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 83,110.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.9 million versus 3.8 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims  is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,823) was 25.5 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,470), while the average number of continuing claims was 38.3 percent lower (51,287 versus 83,110). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 8/23/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,877 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 52,130 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,699, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 87,059.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.9 million versus 3.8 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims  is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,877) was 27.2 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,699), while the average number of continuing claims was 40.1 percent lower (52,130 versus 87,059). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 8/16/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 4,902 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 52,515 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 6,870, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 91,443.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.9 million versus 3.8 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims  is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,902) was 28.6 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (6,870), while the average number of continuing claims was 42.6 percent lower (52,515 versus 91,443). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 8/9/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,134 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 52,593 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 7,081, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 96,874.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.9 million versus 3.8 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims  is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,134) was 27.5 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (7,081), while the average number of continuing claims was 45.7 percent lower (52,593 versus 96,874). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 8/2/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,315 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 52,744 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 7,374, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 106,593.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.89 million versus 3.84 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1, 2013. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,315) was 27.9 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (7,374), while the average number of continuing claims was 50.5 percent lower (52,744 versus 106,593). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 7/26/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,249 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 52,235 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 7,468, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 104,107.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.89 million versus 3.83 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent year-over-year declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that reduces the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,249) was 29.7 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (7,468), while the average number of continuing claims was 49.8 percent lower (52,235 versus 104,107). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 7/19/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

“July was the 46th-straight month in which the United States experienced net job growth,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the year, the economy has netted an average of 214,000 jobs per month, a pace that remains inadequate to repair the damage inflicted on the national labor market in the wake of the last recession.”

In July, the nation’s employers added 209,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. Some 95 percent of the gain originated in the private sector (+198,000), while public employers added 11,000 more positions than they cut. Within the private sector, payroll levels increased the most in the professional and business services sector (+47,000, with 34.3 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+39,000, with 68.5 percent of the gain originating in the retail trade subsector) and the manufacturing sector (+28,000, with all of the increase originating in the manufacture of durable goods). Payroll levels in the other major industry groups either rose in July or essentially held steady.

Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for May and June underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 527,000 jobs over those two months, not the 512,000 positions previously reported. With those changes, the average pace of monthly job growth in the United States recorded over the past year rose to 214,000.

“The United States has experienced steady job growth for almost four years, but the pace of growth has been modest relative to the severity of the job losses caused by the last recession,” noted Quinterno. “While the country now has more payroll jobs than it did in December 2007, the current average monthly rate of job growth is insufficient to close the jobs gap caused by the recession—a gap now estimated at 6.6 million jobs—anytime soon.”

Data from the household survey offered mixed news about the health of the United States’ labor market. In July, the number of Americans who reported having jobs rose by 131,000 (+0.1 percent); put differently, more people reported having jobs in July than in June. At the same time, the overall size of the labor force rose by 329,000 persons (+0.2 percent) between June and July. Meanwhile, the share of working-age Americans participating in the labor force rose in July, while the share of working-age Americans with jobs held steady.

In July, 9.7 million Americans were unemployed (6.2 percent), while 7.5 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. Another 741,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.2 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

Compared to a year ago, 2.1 million more Americans were working in July, and 1.7 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (59 percent) remained at a depressed level, while the share of the population that was participating in the labor force fell to 62.9 percent from 63.4 percent.

Last month, the unemployment rate was identical for adult male and female workers (5.7 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (11.4 percent) and Hispanic workers (7.8 percent) than among white ones (5.3 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 20.2 percent.

Additionally, 6 percent of all veterans were unemployed in July, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 9.2 percent. At the same time, 12.1 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in July. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 12.2 percent, down from the 13.9 percent rate logged a year ago. Among unemployed workers, 32.9 percent had been jobless for at least six months, as opposed to 37.2 percent a year earlier, and the average spell of unemployment equaled 32.4 weeks, down from 36.7 weeks in July 2013.

In July, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 50.3 percent of unemployed persons. Another 29.5 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11.3 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 8.9 percent of the total.

“The July employment report offered a portrait of a national job market that has improved yet is far from healed,” observed Quinterno. “The magnitude of the problems caused by the last recession coupled with an excruciatingly slow recovery have obscured how unusual current conditions are and have created a distorted picture of what a healthy job market looks like.”

The post US Labor Market Cooled In July first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new estimates released by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce. 

“Local unemployment rates fell across all of North Carolina over the past year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Although many local labor markets currently have some of the lowest unemployment rates since late 2007, unemployment remains a serious problem. In fact, 61 counties and 9 metro areas have unemployment rates greater than those posted in June 2008.” 

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.2 percent fewer payroll jobs (-48,500). In June, the state lost 5,800 more jobs than it lost (-0.1 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,390 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 280,300 positions (+7.3 percent). At that rate, all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many payroll jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

Between May and June 2014, local unemployment rates decreased in 81 of the state’s 100 counties, increased in 10 counties, and held constant in 9 counties. Individual county rates in June ranged from 4.2 percent in Currituck County to 12.1 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 3 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 54 counties posted rates between 6.6 and 9.9 percent. (Because seasonal fluctuations in labor markets are pronounced in the summer, month-to-month changes provide limited insight into trends.)

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to lag behind metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In June, 7.1 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 6.2 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 3.7 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 24.2 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 2.2 percent.” 

Between May and June, unemployment rates dropped in 13 of the state’s 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (9.6 percent), followed by Fayetteville (7.5 percent) and Greenville and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (both 6.9 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.9 percent), followed by Durham-Chapel Hill (5.1 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (5.2 percent). 

Compared to June 2013, unemployment rates in June 2014 were lower in all 100 counties and all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 90 counties and in 12 metros. In fact, the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 0.3 percent smaller (-11,953 individuals) in June 2014 than it was in June 2013. 

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the fastest rate (-3.4 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Fayetteville (-3.1 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-2.9 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.8 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros. 

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros, although improved in recent months, remains subdued. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 5.9 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in June totaled 6 percent (compared to 5.8 percent in June 2008). Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest June unemployment rate (5.3 percent), followed by Charlotte (6.4 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6.5 percent).  

The local employment report for June also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented last summer. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 24,209, down from the 44,734 initial claims filed a year earlier (-45.9 percent). 

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,961), followed by Wake (2,103), Guilford (1,522), Cumberland (860), and Forsyth (822) counties. 

In June 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $38 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $189.4 million received in June 2013. This sharp decline (-79.9 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for insurance compensation. 

Additionally, the state’s decision to exit the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program reduced the amount of federal unemployment insurance compensation flowing into the state in June. Between June 2013 and June 2014, the amount of federal unemployment insurance benefits paid to North Carolinians fell by 98.8 percent, dropping to a (nominal) total of $1.1 million from a (nominal) total of $95.2 million. (Note that the US Congress allowed the EUC program to expire at the start of 2014.)

“Despite recent improvements in some important indicators, labor market conditions in communities across North Carolina still have not returned to their pre-recessionary states,” said Quinterno. “The June data showed little deviation from the basic pattern that has characterized the state’s labor market for the past four years; namely, a painfully slow recovery.” 

The post Local Unemployment Rates Down Over The Year first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,455 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 51,676 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 8,842, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 94,581.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.89 million versus 3.82 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that would reduce the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,455) was 38.3 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (8,842), while the average number of continuing claims was 45.4 percent lower (51,676 versus 94,581). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 7/5/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The June employment report is indicative of a state labor market experiencing a painfully slow recovery,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Last month, North Carolina lost more jobs than it gained, and the state experienced declines in both the size of the labor force and the number of employed residents. While conditions in the state are better in some ways than they were a year ago, they still have not returned to their pre-recessionary levels.”

Between May 2014 and June 2014, North Carolina employers cut 5,800 more jobs than they added (-0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 7,500 positions (+0.2 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 13,300 jobs (-1.9 percent), owing primarily to reductions by local governments. Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+3,700, with almost of the gains occurring in administrative and waste management subsector), followed by the financial activities sector (+3,400, +1.6 percent) and the trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector (+1,000, with almost all the gain originating in the retail trade subsector). Meanwhile, the information sector shed 500 more jobs than it added (-0.7 percent). All other major industrial sectors experienced little change in payroll size.

A revision to the May 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 3,000 more jobs that month than first estimated (+8,700 versus +5,700). With the revision, North Carolina has, on net, 48,500 fewer payroll positions (-1.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 280,300 positions (+7.3 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“While positive, the pace of payroll growth in North Carolina has not changed radically over the past year,” noted Quinterno. “Between June 2013 and June 2014, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina grew by 1.8 percent, a rate similar to that seen in prior years. Between June 2012 and June 2013, the total of number payroll jobs in North Carolina rose by 1.7 percent, while between June 2011 and June 2012, the rate of growth was 1.5 percent. In effect, North Carolina has logged the same slow rate of job growth for several years in a row.”

The household data recorded in June contained negative news about the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate held steady at 6.4 percent, even though the number of employed persons fell by 8,577 (-0.2 percent). However, a decline in the size of the statewide labor force (-10,719 persons, -0.2 percent) blunted the impact of the drop in employment. Remember, however, that the monthly changes in the June data should be interpreted cautiously due to the seasonal dynamics often present at the start of summer.

While the changes in household data recorded between May and June appeared negative, the data for changes over the past year were more mixed. Between June 2013 and June 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 89,007 persons (-22.9 percent), but 13.4 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely. If those 11,953 persons were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in June would have equaled 6.6 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 6.5 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of an underperforming labor market. In June 2014, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market equaled 61.1 percent, which was lower than the 62 percent figure recorded a year ago. The June labor force participation rate was only slightly above the lowest monthly figure (61 percent) recorded at any time since January 1976.

In contrast, another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, rose over the year, climbing to 57.2 percent from 56.8 percent. Nevertheless, the current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job is just 0.9 percentage points above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in 2011.

The June labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented last summer. Between May and June, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 4.8 percent, dropping to 40,347 from 42,382. Compared to a year earlier, 50,631 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in June (-55.7 percent).

Also in June, the state paid a (nominal) total of $36.8 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 60.9 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $94.2 million paid in June 2013.

“Despite some improvements in North Carolina’s labor market over the year, most of the improvements have been marginal ones,” added Quinterno. A consideration of indicators other than the important-yet-limited unemployment rate reveals a labor market that is adding jobs too slowly to overcome the consequences of the last recession anytime soon.”

The post North Carolina’s Slow Recovery Continues first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,363 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 51,192 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 9,712, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 85,006.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.89 million versus 3.82 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that should reduce the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (4,824) was 50.3 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (9,712), while the average number of continuing claims was 40.3 percent lower (50,775 versus 85,006). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 6/28/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,573 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 51,593 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 10,787, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 86,573.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.89 million versus 3.82 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that should reduce the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,573) was 48.3 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (10,787), while the average number of continuing claims was 40.4 percent lower (51,593 versus 86,573). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 6/21/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 5,390 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 52,006 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 10,938, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 89,960.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.89 million versus 3.82 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than six years ago.

The graph (below right) shows the changes  in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. The four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008, while the four-week average of continuing claims also is near the lowest level recorded since early 2008.

Note that the recent declines in new and continuing claims are not necessarily indicative of an improving labor market. State legislation that took effect on July 1, 2013, made major changes to insurance eligibility criteria, and the more stringent criteria eliminate claims that would have been valid prior to July 1. Additionally, the legislation reduced the maximum number of weeks  of state-funded insurance for which a claimant is eligible — an action that should reduce the number of continuing claims.

To place the numbers in context, consider how the four-week average of initial claims (5,785) was 47.1 percent lower than the figure recorded one year ago (10,938), while the average number of continuing claims was 43.1 percent lower (51,160 versus 89,960). Given the modest rate of job growth that has occurred in North Carolina over the past year, such declines likely are products of changes to unemployment insurance laws rather than improvements in underlying economic conditions.

The post NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 6/14/14 first appeared on South By North Strategies, Ltd..

“June was the 45th-straight month in which the United States experienced net job growth,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the year, the economy has netted an average of 208,000 jobs per month, a pace that, while positive, still is insufficient to replace all of the jobs lost since 2007 and to accommodate subsequent population growth.”

In June, the nation’s employers added 288,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. Some 91 percent of the gain originated in the private sector (+262,000), while public employers added 26,000 more positions than they cut. Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+72,000, with 55.8 percent of the gain originating in the retail trade subsector), followed by the professional business services sector (+67,000, with 51.3 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste services subsector), the leisure and hospitality services sector (+39,000, with 89.7 percent of the gain originating in the accommodation and food service sector), and the education and health services sector (+38,000). Payroll levels in the other major industry groups either rose in June or essentially held steady.

Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for April and May underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 528,000 jobs over those two months, not the 499,000 positions previously reported. With those changes, the average pace of monthly job growth in the United States recorded over the past year rose to 208,000 from 198,000.

“The United States has experienced steady job growth for the past 3.75 years, but the pace of growth has been modest relative to the severity of the job losses caused by the last recession,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth is insufficient to close the nation’s jobs gap—a gap now estimated at 6.7 million jobs—anytime soon.”

Data from the household survey offered additional positive news about the health of the United States’ labor market. In June, the number of Americans who reported having jobs rose by 407,000 (+0.3 percent); put differently, more people reported having jobs in June than in May. At the same time, the overall size of the labor force rose by 81,000 persons (+0.1 percent) between May and June. Meanwhile, the share of working-age Americans participating in the labor force held steady in June, while the share of working-age Americans with a job ticked up over the month.

In June, 9.5 million Americans were unemployed (6.1 percent), while 7.5 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. Another 676,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.1 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

Compared to a year ago, 2.1 million more Americans were working in June, and 2.3 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (59 percent) remained at a depressed level, while the share of the population that was participating in the labor force decreased over the year, falling to 62.8 percent from 63.5 percent.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (5.7 percent versus 5.3 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (10.7 percent) and Hispanic workers (7.8 percent) than among white ones (5.3 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 21 percent.

Additionally, 5.4 percent of all veterans were unemployed in June, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 7 percent. At the same time, 12.9 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in June. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 12.1 percent, down from the 14.2 percent rate logged a year ago. Among unemployed workers, 32.8 percent had been jobless for at least six months, as opposed to 36.9 percent a year earlier, and the average spell of unemployment equaled 33.5 weeks, down from 35.7 weeks in May 2013.

In June, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 51.2 percent of unemployed persons. Another 28.5 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11.2 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 9 percent of the total.

“The June employment report painted a portrait of a national job market that is showing improvements but remains far from healed,” observed Quinterno. “The magnitude of the problems stemming from the ‘Great Recession’ combined with the painfully prolonged recovery have obscured just how unusual current conditions are and have created a distorted picture of what a robust job market would look like.”

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These findings come from new estimates released by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates fell across all of North Carolina over the past year, with the unadjusted statewide rate falling by 1.6 percentage points,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Many local labor markets now have some of the lowest rates of unemployment logged since late 2007, yet rates still remain elevated. In fact, 67 counties and 14 metro areas posted unemployment rates greater than those recorded six years ago.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.1 percent fewer payroll jobs (-45,700). In May, the state added 5,700 more jobs than it lost (+0.1 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,551 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 283,100 positions (+7.4 percent). At that rate, all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many payroll jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

Between April 2014 and May 2014, local unemployment rates increased in 92 of the state’s 100 counties, decreased in 7 counties, and held constant in 1 county. Individual county rates in May ranged from 4.6 percent in Currituck County to 12.7 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 3 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 63 counties posted rates between 6.6 and 9.9 percent. (Because seasonal fluctuations in the labor market are particularly pronounced in May, month-to-month changes provide limited insight into trends.)

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In May, 7.4 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 6.3 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 3.6 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 28.7 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 1.8 percent.”

Between April and May, unemployment rates rose in all 14 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (9.8 percent), followed by Fayetteville (7.7 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (7.1 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (5.1 percent), followed by Durham-Chapel Hill (5.3 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (5.4 percent).

Compared to May 2013, unemployment rates in May 2014 were lower in all 100 counties and all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 73 counties and in 7 metros. In fact, the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 0.2 percent smaller (-8,307 individuals) in May 2014 than it was in May 2013.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the greatest rate (-2.1 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Fayetteville (-1.7 percent) and Jacksonville and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-1.5 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72.1 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.9 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros, although improved in recent months, remains subdued. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 6.8 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in May totaled 6.1 percent (compared to 5.4 percent in May 2008). Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest May unemployment rate (5.5 percent), followed by Charlotte (6.5 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6.6 percent).

The local employment report for May also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 23,306, down from the 48,287 initial claims filed a year earlier (-51.7 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,728), followed by Wake (1,981), Guilford (1,600), Forsyth (929), and Cumberland (817) counties.

In May 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $36.5 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $177.5 million received in May 2013. This sharp decline (-79.4 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that restricted eligibility for insurance compensation.

Additionally, the state’s decision to exit the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program reduced the amount of federal unemployment insurance compensation flowing into the state in May. Between May 2013 and May 2014, the amount of federal unemployment insurance benefits paid to North Carolinians fell by 98.8 percent, dropping to a (nominal) total of $1.1 million from a (nominal) total of $89.1 million. (Note that the US Congress allowed the EUC program to expire at the start of 2014.)

“Despite recent improvements in some important labor market indicators, labor market conditions in communities across North Carolina still have not returned to their pre-recessionary states,” said Quinterno. “The May data showed little deviation from the basic pattern that has characterized the state’s labor market for the past four years:  a sluggish recovery that is not generating enough job opportunities, rapidly enough for working North Carolinians.”

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These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The May employment report contained signs of marginal progress, even though overall labor market conditions in North Carolina remained far from healthy,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Last month, North Carolina netted relatively few payroll jobs, yet the labor force expanded, which led to a rise in unemployment and the unemployment rate. This increase must be interpreted cautiously, however, given the seasonal factors often at work at this time of year.”

Between April 2014 and May 2014, North Carolina employers added 5,700 more jobs than they cut (+0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 6,100 positions (+0.2 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 400 jobs (-0.1 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality services sector netted the most jobs (+7,400, with 63.5 percent of the increase originating in the accommodation and food services subsector), followed by trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector (+2,300, with 56.5 percent of the gain originating in the wholesale trade subsector). Meanwhile, the professional and business services sector shed 3,400 more jobs than it added (all of the losses occurred in the administrative and waste management subsector), followed by the manufacturing sector (-2,200, with losses split equally between the durable and non-durable goods subsectors).

A revision to the April 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 2,700 more jobs that month than first estimated (+18,000 versus +15,300). With the revision, North Carolina has, on net, 45,700 fewer payroll positions (-1.1 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,550 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 283,100 positions (+7.4 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“While positive, the pace of payroll growth in North Carolina has not accelerated radically over the past year,” explained Quinterno. “Between May 2013 and May 2014, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina grew by 1.9 percent, a rate similar to those seen in prior years. Between May 2012 and May 2013, the total of number payroll jobs in North Carolina rose by 1.6 percent, while between May 2011 and May 2012, the rate of growth was 1.8 percent. The bottom line is that North Carolina has experienced the same basic rate of job growth for several years in a row.”

The household data recorded in May contained some positive news about the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4 percent, which was same rate logged in February of this year. An increase in the size of the labor force contributed to that increase. After accounting for that growth, 10,187 more North Carolinians (+0.2 percent) had jobs in May than in April, and 8,795 more persons were unemployed (+3 percent). These data, however, should be interpreted cautiously due to the seasonal dynamics often at work at the start of summer.

While the changes in household data recorded between April and May seemed positive, the data for changes over the past year were more mixed. Between May 2013 and May 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 90,299 persons (-23.1 percent), but 9.2 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely. If those 8,307 persons were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in May would have equaled 6.6 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 6.5 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market that is performing poorly. In May 2014, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market equaled 61.3 percent, which was up from the 61.1 percent figure logged in April but lower than the 62.1 percent figure recorded a year ago. Even though the labor force participation rose in May for the second straight month, it remains close to the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since January 1976.

Although another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, rose over the year, the current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job (57.4 percent) was just 1.1 percentage points above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in summer 2011.

The May labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented last summer. Between April and May, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 5.6 percent, dropping to 42,382 from 44,892. Compared to a year earlier, 48,476 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in May (-53.4 percent).

Also in May, the state paid a (nominal) total of $35.4 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 60 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $88.4 million paid in May 2013.

“Despite some recent progress around the margins of the state’s labor market, conditions remain far from healthy. Look beyond the important-yet-limited measure of the unemployment rate, and one will see a labor market that is netting jobs at the same sluggish pace that has characterized the past few years. North Carolina simply still is struggling with the consequences of the last recession”

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