“April was the 31st-straight month of job growth recorded in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the past three months, the national economy has netted an average of 212,000 jobs, a pace that, while positive, is insufficient to drive unemployment down to pre-recessionary levels. More than 3.5 years into a recovery, the unemployment rate remains well above the December 2007 level of 5 percent.”

In April, the nation’s employers added 165,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+176,000), while government employers eliminated 11,000 more positions than they added, owing chiefly to reductions by the federal government. Moreover, the payroll employment numbers for February and March underwent positive revisions; with the updates, the economy gained 470,000 jobs over those two months, not the 356,000 positions previously reported.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the professional and business services sector (+73,000, with 59.3 of the gain attributable to the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by leisure and hospitality sector (+43,000, with all of the gain occurring in the accommodation and food services subsector) and the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+37,000, with 79.2 percent of the losses occurring in the retail trade subsector). Payroll levels fell the most in the information and construction sectors (-9,000 and -6,000, respectively).

“Over the last year, the American economy gained 2.1 million more payroll positions that it lost,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth—some 173,000 positions per month—nevertheless is insufficient to close the nation’s sizable jobs gap.”

Slack labor market conditions were evident in the April household survey. Last month, 11.7 million Americans (7.5 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. Both the unemployment rate and total number of unemployed persons essentially were unchanged from the prior month. Also in April, the share of the population participating in the labor force remained at 63.3 percent, a rate lower than the one posted a year ago. On a positive note, more Americans were working in April compared to a year ago, and fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working age population with a job remained near the lowest figure recorded during the current business cycle.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (7.1 percent versus 6.7 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (13.2 percent) and Hispanic workers (9 percent) than among White ones (6.7 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 24.1 percent. Moreover, 6.2 percent of all veterans were unemployed; the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 7.5 percent. At the same time, 12.9 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained hard to find in April. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 13.9 percent. Among unemployed workers, 37.4 percent had been jobless for at least six months, and the average spell of unemployment was 36.5 weeks. The leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 54.8 percent of unemployed persons. Another 26.9 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 10.9 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 7.4 percent of the total.

“The April employment report paints a very mixed picture of the American job market,” observed Quinterno. “The monthly job gain and the positive revisions to data from prior months were positive, but unemployment and underemployment remained elevated, while various measures of labor utilization remained at depressed levels. In many ways, the April employment report is another entry in a long series of underwhelming reports.”

“Over the year, local unemployment rates dropped across most of North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Unemployment nevertheless remains elevated, with 44 counties and 2 metro areas posting unemployment rates of at least 10 percent. In March 2008, in contrast, just two counties and no metro areas logged unemployment rates at or above 10 percent.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.9 percent fewer jobs (-119,400) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb to 8.9 percent from 4.7 percent. In March, the state lost 300 more jobs than it added (+/- 0 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,632 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 208,400 positions (+5.4 percent).

Between February 2013 and March 2013, local unemployment rates decreased in 99 of the state’s 100 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.6 percent in Orange County to 17.8 percent in Graham County. Overall, 44 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 55 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In March, 10.2 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 8.5 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 6.4 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 80.4 percent larger.”

Over the month, unemployment rates fell in 12 metro areas, rose in one, and remained unchanged in one. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (12.5 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (10.1 percent) and Fayetteville (9.6 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (6.7 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (7.1 percent) and Asheville (7.2 percent).

Compared to March 2012, unemployment rates in March 2013 were lower in 78 counties and 12 metro areas. Over the year, labor force sizes increased in 38 counties and in 9 metros. Among metros, Greenville’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+2.2 percent), followed by that of Asheville (+2.1 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.9 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.5 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains subdued. Collectively, employment in those three metro regions has risen by 2.9 percent since December 2007, and the combined March unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 8.1 percent. That was down from the 8.7 percent rate recorded one year ago yet was well above the 4.8 percent rate recorded in March 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest March unemployment rate (7.1 percent), followed by Charlotte (9 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (9.1 percent).

“Slightly more than three years into a statewide labor market recovery, unemployment remains widespread across much of North Carolina,” said Quinterno. “The state continues to lack enough jobs for all those who need and want work, especially those grappling with the consequences of long-term unemployment.”

“Calling the March employment report ‘lackluster’ would be an overly charitable description,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Overall employment levels in both the private and public sectors were unchanged, while a number of major labor force indicators moved in the wrong direction. The share of the working-age population participating in the labor force, for one, fell to a level last seen in late 2011.”

In March, North Carolina employers cut 300 more jobs than they added (+/- 0 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 600 positions (+/- 0 percent), while public-sector payrolls shed 900 jobs (+/- 0 percent). Within the private sector, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+4,200, +0.8 percent), with 71.4 percent of the gain originating in the administrative and waste management services subsector. The information industry added, on net, 1,300 positions (+1.8 percent), followed by the education and health services sector (+1,100, +0.2 percent). Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector shed the most positions (-3,700, -0.8 percent), with 72.9 percent of the losses related to the manufacture of non-durable goods. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector lost 2,200 positions (-0.3 percent), with all of the losses occurring in the retail trade subsector. The construction sector also shed -1,800 jobs (-1.1 percent).

A revision to the February payroll data found that the state gained fewer jobs than first estimated (+2,500 versus +3,300). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 119,400 fewer payroll positions (-2.9 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,632 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 208,400 positions (+5.4 percent).

“North Carolina has experienced little net payroll growth so far in 2013,” noted Quinterno. “During the first quarter of 2013, the state netted 16,300 payroll jobs, for a total increase of 0.4 percent. In comparison, state payrolls grew, on net, by 30,900 positions, or 0.8 percent, during the first quarter of 2012.”

The household data for March also pointed to the existence of an under-performing labor market. Last month, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell (-11,619, -2.6 percent), but so did the number of employed persons (-10,954, -0.3 percent). The drop in the unemployment rate to 9.2 percent from 9.4 percent in February therefore was intertwined with a contraction in the size of the labor force (-22,573, -0.5 percent). In March, the share of the working-age population participating in the labor force (62.8 percent) fell for the second consecutive month and reached a level last seen in late 2011.

Compared to a year ago, 42,669 more North Carolinians held jobs in March (+1 percent), while 7,127 fewer persons were unemployed (-1.6 percent). Viewed in light of the increase in the size of the labor force that also occurred (+35,542, +0.8 percent), the drop in the unemployment rate that took place over the year was a positive improvement. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points over the year, while the employment to population ration held constant at 57.1 percent; both measures, however, remain at depressed levels.

Such improvements in the labor market are unimpressive when viewed in relation to the severity of the employment problems facing the state. North Carolina’s unemployment rate has equaled or exceeded 9 percent in every month since January 2009 and has ranged as high as 11.4 percent. Over the past 15 months, the rate has fluctuated between 9.2 percent and 9.6 percent. Moreover, compared to December 2007, which was when the “Great Recession” began, the statewide unemployment rate is 4.2 percentage points higher, and the number of unemployed North Carolinians is 90.3 percent larger.

“The March employment report is consistent with a labor market that is stable but going nowhere fast,” observed Quinterno. “When combined with reports from earlier in the year, it is clear that 2013 is not so far shaping up to be the year in which the state’s labor market turns a corner.”

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 10,415 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 96,294 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, and the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 10,371, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 106,648.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were over five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  In fact, the four-week average of initial claims, when measured as a share of covered employment, is now at the lowest level recorded since early 2008.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 10,175 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 98,430 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 10,879, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 111,480.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

“Over the year, local unemployment rates dropped across most of North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Unemployment nevertheless remained widespread. Last month, local unemployment rates equaled or exceeded 10 percent in 60 counties and 4 metro areas. In February 2008, in contrast, five counties and no metro areas logged unemployment rates of 10 percent or greater.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.9 percent fewer jobs (-118,300) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb to 9.5 percent from 4.7 percent. In February, the state added 3,300 more jobs than it lost (+0.1 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,819 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 209,500 positions (+5.5 percent).

Between January 2012 and February 2013, local unemployment rates declined in 99 of the state’s 100 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.9 percent in Orange County to 20.2 percent in Graham County. Overall, 60 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 39 counties posted rates between 6.8 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In February, 10.9 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 9 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 6.7 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 94.1 percent larger.”

Over the month, unemployment rates fell in all 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (13.2 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (10.8 percent) and Wilmington (10.2 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (7 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (7.5 percent) and Asheville (7.8 percent).

Compared to February 2012, unemployment rates in February 2013 were lower in 76 counties and 12 metro areas. Over the year, labor force sizes increased in 46 counties and in 10 metros. Among metros, Asheville’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+2.6 percent), followed by that of Greenville (+2.4 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.8 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.4 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions will hinge on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains subdued. Collectively, employment in those three metro regions has risen by 2.5 percent since December 2007, and the combined February unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 8.5 percent. That was down from the 9.1 percent rate recorded one year ago yet was well above the 4.9 percent rate recorded in February 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest February unemployment rate (7.5 percent), followed by Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad (both 9.6 percent).

“Three years into a statewide labor market recovery, unemployment remains widespread across much of North Carolina,” said Quinterno. “The state simply lack enough jobs for all those who need and want work, and little evidence suggests that the pattern is about to change anytime soon.”

“March was the 30th-straight month of job growth recorded in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the past three months, the national economy has netted an average of 168,000 jobs, a pace that, while positive, is insufficient to drive unemployment down to pre-recessionary levels. More than 3.5 years into a recovery, the unemployment rate remains well above the December 2007 level of 5 percent.”

In March, the nation’s employers added 88,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+95,000), while government employers eliminated 7,000 more positions than they added, owing chiefly to reductions by the US Postal Service. Moreover, the payroll employment numbers for January and February underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy gained 416,000 jobs over those two months, not the 355,000 positions previously reported.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the professional and business services sector (+51,000, with half of the gain attributable to the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by education and health services sector (+44,000, with 53.2 percent of the gain attributable to the health care subsector), the construction sector (+18,000), and the leisure and hospitality sector (+17,000, with 71.6 percent of the gain occurring in the accommodation and food services subsector). Payroll levels fell the most in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-27,000, with 89.3 percent of the losses originating in the retail trade subsector).

“Over the last year, the American economy has gained 1.9 million more payroll positions that it has lost,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth—some 159,000 positions per month—nevertheless is insufficient to fill the sizable jobs gap caused by the most recent recession.”

Slack labor market conditions were evident in the March household survey. Last month, 11.7 million Americans (7.6 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. While the unemployment rate dropped between February and March, that was due in part to a large contraction in the size of the labor force (-496,000 persons). Also in March, the share of the population participating in the labor force fell to 63.3 percent, a rate lower than the one recorded a year ago. On a somewhat positive note, more Americans were working in March compared to a year ago, while fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working age population with a job fell in March to a level close to the lowest one recorded during the current business cycle.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult female workers than male ones (7 percent versus 6.9 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (13.3 percent) and Hispanic workers (9.2 percent) than among White ones (6.7 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 24.2 percent. Moreover, 7.1 percent of all veterans were unemployed; the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 9.2 percent. At the same time, 13 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained scarce in March. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 13.8 percent. Among unemployed workers, 39.6 percent had been jobless for at least six months, and the average spell of unemployment was 37.1 weeks. The leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 53.6 percent of unemployed persons in March. Another 26.9 percent of unemployed persons were reentrants to the labor market, while 11.1 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 8.4 percent of the total.

“In March, the air very much leaked out of the American job market,” observed Quinterno. “The monthly job gain was the smallest recorded since last June, and the economy still is not adding jobs fast enough to accommodate all the Americans who need work. And while the unemployment rate fell, that drop was due to people leaving the job market altogether.”

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 11,002 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 101,767 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 11,354, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 113,785.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

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“Payroll employment growth in North Carolina slowed to a virtual standstill in February,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Despite logging seven straight months of employment growth, North Carolina still has fewer jobs than it did in December 2007. Compared to then, payroll levels are lower in seven of the state’s ten major private industrial supersectors.”

In February, North Carolina employers added 3,300 more jobs than they cut (+0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 2,200 positions (+0.1 percent), while public-sector payrolls gained 1,100 jobs (+0.2 percent). Within the private sector, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+2,600, +0.5 percent), with virtually all of the gain originating in the professional, scientific, and technical services subsector. The education and health services sector added, on net, 2,100 jobs (+0.4 percent), with health care and social services sector responsible for 66.7 percent of the gain. Meanwhile, the leisure and hospitality services sector shed the most positions (-3,000, -0.7 percent), with 83.3 percent of the losses occurring in the accommodations and food services subsector. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector lost 1,500 positions (-0.2 percent), followed by the other services sector (-600, -0.4 percent).

A revision to the January payroll data found that the state gained slightly fewer jobs than first estimated (+14,100 versus +15,100). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 118,300 fewer payroll positions (-2.8 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,819 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 209,500 positions (+5.5 percent).

“The past few months have seen relatively better job growth in North Carolina, and as a result, the state has recovered some of the ground lost during the recession,” noted Quinterno. “The pace of growth, however, remains subdued, and the state still has fewer jobs than it did at the start of latest recession despite being three years into a recovery.”

The household data for February also pointed to the existence of a lackluster labor market. Last month, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell (-6,585, -1.5 percent), but so did the number of employed persons (-4,964, -0.1 percent). The slight drop in the unemployment rate to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in January therefore was a product of a contraction in the size of the labor force (-11,549, -0.2 percent). In February, the share of the working-age population participating in the labor force (63.2 percent) fell after having risen in each of the prior five months.

Compared to a year ago, some 63,847 more North Carolinians held jobs in February (+1.5 percent), while 997 more persons were unemployed (+0.2 percent). Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points due to the overall increase in the size of the labor force. Additionally, both the labor force participation rate and employment to population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points over the year, though both measures remain at depressed levels.

The growth in the labor market that has occurred over the past year, however, is weak in relation to the severity of the employment problems facing the state. North Carolina’s unemployment rate has equaled or exceeded 9 percent in every month since January 2009 and has ranged as high as 11.4 percent. Over the past 14 months, the rate has fluctuated between 9.4 percent and 9.6 percent. Moreover, compared to December 2007, which was when the “Great Recession” began, the statewide unemployment rate is 4.4 percentage points higher, and the number of unemployed North Carolinians is 95.4 percent larger.

“The February employment was a fairly unimpressive one that points to a labor market that is stable but not necessarily improving in ways perceptible to the almost 447,000 North Carolinians who are jobless and seeking work,” observed Quinterno. “The bottom line is that North Carolina continues to face a sizable jobs shortfall, slow payroll growth, and widespread unemployment. In all those respects, 2013 so far is proving no different than 2012.”

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 11,716 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 104,733 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 11,739, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 116,323.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows job openings increased in January to nearly 3.7 million, a rise of 81,000 since December. The number of job openings, which had been improving generally since reaching its low of 2.2 million in July 2009, is still below its recent peak of 3.8 million in March 2012.
…
Hires also rose slightly in January, increasing by 52,000 to over 4.2 million. Like job openings, hires are still below their early 2012 levels. On the flip side, layoffs decreased by 62,000 in January to 1.5 million. While layoffs are not currently the primary concern in the labor market (having been at prerecession levels for more than two years), that there are fewer layoffs is definitely good news. However, because job openings and hiring remain so depressed, the consequences to workers of being laid off are far worse now than before the recession began; they are less likely to find a new job within a reasonable timeframe, particularly one that pays as much as the job lost.

“Compared to a year ago, local unemployment rates were higher across much of North Carolina in January,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “While the numbers from the two months are not strictly comparable due to methodological changes, the latest numbers are indicative of an economy that lacks enough employment opportunities for all those who want and need work. Last month, 76 counties and seven metro areas posted unemployment rates of at least 10 percent. In January 2008, in contrast, four counties and no metro areas logged unemployment rates of 10 percent or greater.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.9 percent fewer jobs (-120,600) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb to 10.2 percent from 4.7 percent. In January, the state added 15,100 more jobs than it lost (+0.4 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,920 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 207,200 positions (+5.4 percent).\

Between December 2012 and January 2013, local unemployment rose in every county in the state. Individual county rates ranged from 6.6 percent in Orange County to 20.4 percent in Graham County. Overall, 76 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 24 counties posted rates between 6.6 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In January, 11.6 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 9.6 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 6.6 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 108.9 percent larger.”

Over the month, unemployment rates rose in all 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (14.1 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (11.5 percent) and Fayetteville (10.8 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (7.7 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (8 percent) and Asheville (8.4 percent).

Compared to January 2012, unemployment rates in January 2013 were higher in 63 counties and 8 metro areas. Over the year, labor force sizes increased in 79 counties and in all 14 metros. Among metros, Asheville’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+3.5 percent), followed by that of Goldsboro (+3.2 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.7 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.4 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions will hinge on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains subdued. Collectively, employment in those three metro regions has risen by 2.5 percent since December 2007, and the combined January unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 9.2 percent. That was up slightly from the 9.1 percent rate recorded one year ago and was well above the 4.9 percent rate recorded in January 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest January unemployment rate (8.2 percent), followed by Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad (both 10.2 percent).

“Although the numbers are not directly comparable, local labor markets across much of North Carolina began 2013 no differently than they began 2012,” said Quinterno. “Simply put, unemployment rates remain elevated across the state, and twice as many North Carolinians are jobless and seeking work than was the case five years ago.”

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 11,804 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 106,5906 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 11,763, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 118,058.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 11,854 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 108,016 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 11,549, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 119,452.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

“February was the 29th-straight month of job growth recorded in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the past three months, the national economy has netted an average of 191,000 jobs, a pace that, while positive, is insufficient to drive unemployment down to pre-recessionary levels. More than 3.5 years into a recovery, the unemployment rate remains well above the December 2007 level of 5 percent.”

In February, the nation’s employers added 236,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+246,000), while government employers eliminated 10,000 more positions than they added, due mainly to reductions by state governments. Moreover, the payroll employment numbers for December and January underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy gained 338,000 jobs over those two months, not the 353,000 positions previously reported.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the professional and business services sector (+73,000, with 60.4 percent of the gain attributable to the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by construction (+48,000), and the trade, transportation and utilities sector (+30,000, with 79 percent of the gain attributable to the retail trade subsector). Payroll levels in every other private supersector either rose or held steady.

“Over the last 14 months, the American economy has gained 2.5 million more payroll positions that it has lost,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth—some 182,000 positions per month—nevertheless is insufficient to fill the sizable jobs gap caused by the most recent recession.”

Slack labor market conditions were evident in the February household survey. Last month, 12 million Americans (7.7 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. While the unemployment rate dropped between January and February, the decline was due to a dip in the labor force participation rate. In February, the size of the labor force contracted by 130,000 persons, as the share of the population participating in the labor force fell to 63.5 percent, a rate lower than the one recorded a year ago. On a positive note, compared to a year ago, more Americans were working in February, and fewer persons were unemployed.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (7.1 percent versus 7 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (13.8 percent) and Hispanic workers (9.6 percent) than among White ones (6.8 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 25.1 percent. Moreover, 6.9 percent of all veterans were unemployed; the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 9.4 percent. At the same time, 12.3 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained scarce in February. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 14.3 percent. Among unemployed workers, 40.2 percent had been jobless for at least six, and the average spell of unemployment was 36.9 weeks. The leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 53.9 percent of unemployed persons in February. Another 27.6 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 10.6 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 7.9 percent of the total.

“Despite the job growth experienced in February, the American labor market remains listless,” observed Quinterno. “The rate of job growth is subpar relative to the problems facing the national labor market, and the labor market still is not on pace to generate enough jobs for all the Americans who need work.”

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 12,304 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 109,498 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 12,002, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 121,240.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 13,137 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 110,778 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 12,231, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 122,768.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 13,961 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 111,890 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 12,712, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 124,240.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 16,812 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 115,520 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 14,483, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 126,586.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

[Source: U.S. Census Bureau]

The survey presented a bleak view of the economic future.
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A majority of Americans say they think it will be at least six years before the economy is made whole again, if ever. Three in 10 said the economy would never fully recover from the Great Recession.
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“Despite significant improvements in the nation’s labor market, American workers’ concerns about unemployment, the job market, job security and the future of the economy have not changed much since we conducted a similar survey in August 2010,” the report said.
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Just a third of Americans surveyed in this poll, conducted from Jan. 9-16, said they thought the economy would be better next year, the same share that said so two years earlier.
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Of those laid off in recent years, nearly a quarter said they still had not found a job. Re-employment rates for older workers have been particularly bad, with nearly two-thirds of unemployed people 55 and older saying they actively sought a job for more than a year before finding one or had still not found work.

The 401(k) experiment has been a disaster, a disaster which threatens to doom millions to economic misery during the later years of their lives. Proposals to improve our system of private retirement savings — even good ones — will offer little to no help for the baby boomers who are currently nearing retirement, and are also unlikely to be of sufficient help for current younger workers. We need to increase Social Security benefits, now and in the future. It’s the only realistic way to provide people with guaranteed economic security and comfort post-retirement.

Which brings me to the subject of uncertainty, the presumed source of all things ailing the U.S. economy. Uncertainty is omnipresent. No one speaks of uncertainty during good times. There was lots of uncertainty in March 2000, when the Nasdaq Composite Index breached 5,000 as investors bought shares of Internet companies with no revenue, no profits and, in at least one case, no known business. No uncertainty back then; just a case of irrational exuberance.
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In good times, the word uncertainty rarely appears in policy discussions. In bad times, it’s the default setting. Why not call it by what it really is, which is pessimism? When businesses say they aren’t going to invest because of uncertainty, what they mean is, they don’t think their investments will produce a substantial profit.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 20,681 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 119,625 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 18,083, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 131,057.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

While Western leaders talked about a new emphasis on growth and employment, they offered no concrete policies backing these aspirations. In Europe, there was continued emphasis on austerity, with self-congratulations on the progress made so far, and a reaffirmation of resolve to continue along a course that has now plunged Europe as a whole into recession – and the United Kingdom into a triple-dip downturn.

Unemployment data podcast 1-13 from Workforce3 One on Vimeo.

On this side of the Atlantic, Congress has enacted a patchwork quilt of privacy laws that separately limit the use of Americans’ medical records,credit reports, video rental records and so on. On the other side, the European Union has instituted more of a blanket regulatory system; it has a common directive that gives its citizens certain fundamental rights — like the right to obtain copies of records held about them by companies and institutions — that Americans now lack.

The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 7.9 percent in January as the economy added 157,000 jobs in the month. The unemployment rate has essentially been unchanged the last five months. The January job growth was pretty much in line with expectations, but growth for the prior two months was revised up by 127,000. This brings the average rate of job growth over the last three months to 200,000, considerably better than the average of 168,000 over the last year.
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There were few noteworthy changes in the household data. There was a 0.4 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate for white men to 6.6 percent due to an influx of people looking for work. This could be a sign of the unemployed being more optimistic about their job prospects, but it may also just be an erratic fluctuation in the data. The participation rate for white men had fallen by 0.2 percentage points from October to December. The employment-population ratio for workers with just a high school degree fell by 0.3 percentage points to 54.0 percent, a new low for the downturn.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 20,479 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 118,156 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 20,020, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 131,553.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

It is important that the economy be allowed to change with new technology and changing preferences, but the consequences for innocent workers affected by such changes is a social responsibility that needs to be addressed. In addition, as extended family relationships are hindered by geography and the social contract between parents and children breaks down, the elderly need a way to avoid poverty. Programs such as Unemployment Compensation, Medicare, and Social Security arose as a means to mitigate these economic risks under capitalism using the least amount of society’s valuable resources.
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Drawing a rough analogy, socialism is like investing in T-Bills. Low risk, but low return. Capitalism is like the stock market. There is a higher average return accompanied by higher risk. Financial theory tells how to insure against such risks and there is no reason why this cannot be applied in the social insurance arena to smooth variations in income.

By issuing some more rulings favorable to the unions over the next four years, the N.L.R.B. will help tilt the balance of power in the workplace back towards labor. But after many years in which employers were allowed to flout the law and intimidate union organizers with impunity, nobody in the labor movement is under any illusion that these administrative changes will be sufficient to reverse the unions’ historic decline. Indeed, even some economists who are sympathetic to unions believe that their decline is irreversible. In large parts of the country, particularly in the private sector, unions are no longer a major player in the economy. Changing that is going to take much more than two terms of Obama in the White House. But if he is serious about pursuing a liberal agenda, he can’t avoid getting involved.

Activity in the service sector improved, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The decline in retail activity slowed in January and business expanded at non-retail services establishments. In addition, both retail and non-retail firms had a better business outlook for the next six months than they held last month.
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Service sector labor markets were mixed, with retail employment and wages remaining weak, though improved from a month ago, while employment and average wages picked up at services firms.
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Price growth in the broad service sector picked up slightly in January, while remaining well-contained. Looking ahead six months, survey respondents expected overall price growth to remain moderate.

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region declined in January following two months of modest expansion, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Nearly all broad indicators of activity fell into negative territory. Other indicators also suggested additional softness. Capacity utilization turned negative as did the gauge for delivery times, while backlogs continued its downward trend. In addition, finished goods inventories grew at a slightly quicker pace.
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Looking ahead, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were somewhat more optimistic in January. An increasing number of contacts anticipated faster growth for new orders, capacity utilization, vendor lead-time, average workweek and capital expenditures, pushing up those indicators.

Watch The Untouchables on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 20,210 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 115,748 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 19,939, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 129,096.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with the conditions that prevailed in 2012. No surprise there: we face another year in which global growth will average about 3%, but with a multi-speed recovery – a sub-par, below-trend annual rate of 1% in the advanced economies, and close-to-trend rates of 5% in emerging markets. But there will be some important differences as well.
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Painful deleveraging – less spending and more saving to reduce debt and leverage – remains ongoing in most advanced economies, which implies slow economic growth. But fiscal austerity will envelop most advanced economies this year, rather than just the eurozone periphery and the United Kingdom. Indeed, austerity is spreading to the core of the eurozone, the United States, and other advanced economies (with the exception of Japan). Given synchronized fiscal retrenchment in most advanced economies, another year of mediocre growth could give way to outright contraction in some countries.

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“Relatively strong payroll growth during the fourth quarter of 2012, particularly in November, resulted in the highest annual rate of job growth posted in the last five years,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The labor market nevertheless is recovering at an excruciatingly slow pace. North Carolina still has 4.1 percent fewer jobs than it did five years ago, and if not for uncharacteristically high job growth in November, the jobs gap would be even wider.”

In December, North Carolina employers added 7,900 more jobs than they cut (+0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 8,300 positions (+0.3 percent), while public-sector payrolls shed 400 jobs (-0.1 percent), due to cuts in local government payrolls (-2,900, -0.7 percent). Within the private sector, education and health services netted the most jobs (+5,900, +1.1 percent), with 76.3 percent of the growth occurring in the health care and social services subsector. The professional and business services sector netted 5,000 jobs, of which 72 percent were in the administrative and waste management subsector. Meanwhile, the finance sector shed the most positions (-2,000, -1.0 percent), with virtually all of contraction occurring in the real estate and rental leasing subsector. The leisure and hospitality services sector lost 1,300 more jobs than it gained (-0.3 percent).

A revision to the November payroll data found that the state gained slightly more jobs than first estimated (+31,600 versus +30,600). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 172,100 fewer payroll positions (-4.1 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 4,535 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 154,200 positions (+4 percent).

“North Carolina’s labor market posted relatively strong growth in the first quarter of 2012, stumbled during the second quarter, stagnated in the third quarter, but grew sharply in the fourth quarter due primarily to strong growth in November,” added Quinterno. “North Carolina ended the year with 72,400 more jobs that with which it started. The general pattern of 2012 was one of growth across much of the private sector and stasis in the public sector.”

The household data for December also offered an improved view of labor market conditions. Last month, the number of employed North Carolinians rose (+10,398, +0.2 percent), as did the overall size of the labor force (+17,395, +0.4 percent). Yet the number of unemployed persons increased by 6,997 persons (+1.6 percent), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, a rate 1.2 percentage points lower than the December 2011 figure of 10.4 percent.

Over the course of 2012, the total number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 45,380 (-9.4 percent), and the number of employed persons grew by 121,487 persons (+2.9 percent). The unemployment rate also dropped by 1.2 percentage points and now is hovering near the lowest level recorded since January 2009.

The recent growth in the labor market, however, is weak in relation to the severity of the employment problems facing the state. North Carolina’s unemployment rate has equaled or exceeded 9 percent in every month since January 2009 and has ranged as high as 11.4 percent. Compared to December 2007, which was when the “Great Recession” began, the statewide unemployment rate is 4.2 percentage points higher, and the number of unemployed North Carolinians is 91.9 percent larger. During 2012, some 447,000 North Carolinians, on average, were unemployed in any given month.

Other troubling indicators include a statewide unemployment rate that has exceeded 10 percent in 35 of the last 48 months and depressed labor force participation rates and employment-to-population ratios. While both the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio improved steadily over the last four months of 2012, the two figures remain below their pre-recessionary levels.

“The December employment report showed that North Carolina ended 2012 on a positive note, at least when compared to the dismal labor market performances of recent years,” observed Quinterno. “The improvements do not change the fact that North Carolina’s labor market remains scarred by a sizable jobs shortfall, slow payroll growth, and widespread unemployment. Those are the realities facing the state’s labor market as it enters 2013.”

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 17,270 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 110,469 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 18,380, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 125,385.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were approximately five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

The market will not, on its own, solve any of these problems. Global warming is a quintessential “public goods” problem. To make the structural transitions that the world needs, we need governments to take a more active role – at a time when demands for cutbacks are increasing in Europe and the US.
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As we struggle with today’s crises, we should be asking whether we are responding in ways that exacerbate our long-term problems. The path marked out by the deficit hawks and austerity advocates both weakens the economy today and undermines future prospects. The irony is that, with insufficient aggregate demand the major source of global weakness today, there is an alternative: invest in our future, in ways that help us to address simultaneously the problems of global warming, global inequality and poverty, and the necessity of structural change.