South Florida StormWatch

Hurricane Earl & Florida’s Holiday Forecast

DigTek — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 15:28:33 +0000

The Atlantic is churning out storms one right after the other, and this trend may continue for another 2 weeks, but right now all eyes are on Earl… This Major Hurricane will pass uncomfortably close to the East coast as the holiday weekend begins, and while the official forecast calls for the system to remain at sea, even a slight change could put Earl over land. Even if Earl does avoid a US landfall (which is the most likely case), heavy seas and strong winds are going to be felt along the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, putting a damper on any holiday plans that include a visit to coastal areas. I will be unable to provide updates on Earl this weekend, and it is certainly not going to make landfall in Florida, but is a storm that should be closely monitored.

Fiona is not expected to become a hurricane and should curve out to sea and fall apart within 4 or 5 days, so no land areas are under any watches or warnings.

Gaston on the other hand, is forecast to intensify, and also to follow a track that may well keep the system further south, potentially even allowing entry into the Caribbean. This brings the islands of the Bahamas and Caribbean, along with Florida into the potential path of this storm. Of course it is a long way off and any solid forecasts will not come into play until early next week.

SouthEast Florida should experience seasonal weather for the Holiday, with highs in the 90′s and a 30% chance for mostly afternoon showers or storms each day. This will be the case for most of Florida in fact, but the East Coast, especially as you move North, may also have rough seas and strong currents to contend with thanks to Earl. Enjoy your holiday everyone, I will update on Gaston next week as needed, but again, will not be able to post any additional information on Earl this weekend.

The Hurricane Trains rolls into the Atlantic…

DigTek — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 19:20:39 +0000

Danielle, Earl, 97L starting to form, and string of Tropical Waves all across Africa… Looks like the Atlantic might be churning out Cape Verde Storms for the next few weeks. Danielle may also become the first Major Hurricane of the season, but unless you live in Bermuda, it is unlikely that either storm is going to affect you.

Almost a week of rainy days is taking a toll on Southwest Florida, and the Peace River is experiencing some minor flooding. With any luck though, things should now begin to quiet down… Rain chances are only around 40% for this weekend, and that is about normal in the summer to have a chance of afternoon showers.

Weekend Weather Word…

DigTek — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 18:35:48 +0000

Well… We could talk about the record heat in Russia, the flooding in Pakistan, or maybe global warming, but there is nothing to talk about in the tropics. Instead, I think I will just say that the seasonal pattern of warm and sunny days with possible afternoon showers will continue for Florida, and that this weekend should be a good one to visit the beach or hit the pool. Take care everyone.

Tropical Update (a quick one)

DigTek — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 22:20:16 +0000

I did not have a lot of time to research the tropics today, so this will be brief…

Colin will not be making landfall in the US, and is not expected to become much stronger than it is now, though a short window for some organization of this system is possible.

Another area in the eastern Caribbean bears watching, but it is not likely to develop either.

The one to watch may end up being the new invest out in the north Atlantic, which is currently being given a 40% chance to become a cyclone this weekend.

I will be watching all of these areas and will post an update if and when one is needed. Until then, enjoy your weekend everyone.

Tropical Storm Colin…

DigTek — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 14:19:12 +0000

The season’s third named storm has formed in the North Atlantic and is heading WNW at over 20 MPH… Even at that speed it will be at least a week before any type of US landfall might occur, it is also very likely the system will recurve and not affect North America at all. On the other hand, I would say if this system does deviate from the forecast track, it would be to the West rather than East, and as with any system it should be monitored. It also looks like Colin will have some dry air and then shear to contend with, and is not really expected to become a hurricane, though I would not count that possibility out just yet either.

Summer Weather Continues in Florida…

DigTek — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:07:55 +0000

Going to be a quick and easy one today…

Nothing is going on in the Tropical Atlantic right now, and that should continue for a week or so, when the GFS indicates we could see something start to develop.

The Deepwater Horizon oil well appears to still be capped, and all we can do is hope it stays that way until the relief wells are complete.

The summer weather pattern continues in Florida, with plenty of warm weather and a chance for storms in the afternoon.

That about covers it for today, hate to thumb my nose at the prediction of an active hurricane season, since it can spin up real fast, but luckily it has been fairly calm so far.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Heads For The Florida Keys…

DigTek — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 14:09:55 +0000

Tropical Storm Bonnie will push through the Florida Keys during the day today, potentially with winds in the 50MPH range and plenty of rain. Most of the Forecast Models keep this system as a minimal Tropical Storm or less, none predict it will become a hurricane. Bonnie will move through quickly, and by Saturday the weather in South Florida should begin to improve. In fact, by Monday the Storm will have made her 2nd landfall.

Activity Returns to the Tropics / Oil Well Plugged?

DigTek — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 17:23:44 +0000

Things have picked back up in the Tropics, TD 3 has formed in the southern Bahamas, and threatens to pass over the Keys as Tropical Storm Bonnie. Right now none of the forecast models show this system gaining hurricane strength, in fact most models predict a far weaker system, though I would keep a close eye on this system as it moves northwest over the next few days. This system looks like will move into the Florida Keys on Friday, so I will be watching this storm closely and updating as needed. The Bahamas and much of South Florida is under a Tropical Storm Warning at this time.

BP now claims the Deepwater Horizon well has been shut off, though discussion about oil seeping up from a potentially damaged casing is also present. Either way, one can hope the flow has been so significantly reduced that the years of cleaning up and waiting for nature to recover from this disaster can now begin.