Socalsurf.com - Southern California Surf Forecast

Surf Photos – October love in the City of Angels

2009-11-07T15:57:00.001-08:00

Hey gang…here are a few photos from Jeff at the Liquidplayground blog that he was super cool to send over. I think that the last one at the bottom of the post is my favorite…you can almost feel Fall when you look at it.

Make sure to check out Liquidplayground when you get a chance, Jeff has a ton of even better photos posted up over there.

http://liquidplayground.blogspot.com/

Waves for the Weekend – New NW swell peaks Sunday (and mixes with a touch of SW too

2009-11-06T16:51:00.001-08:00

Both Saturday and Sunday look like surf days this weekend…but Sunday looks a little better as new NW swell peaks and winds are a bit more favorable.

On Saturday we are going to start off with some NW swell (290-300) and SW swell (200-220) already in the water (they started filling in more Friday afternoon). The larger push of NW swell (285-300 but with the prime energy around 295-300+) will begin filling in long-period energy throughout the day, particularly through Santa Barbara and Ventura areas thanks to their more northerly positions.

Wave on Saturday will start off in the knee-waist high range for most of the average WNW-NW and SW facing breaks…the average combo spots will be a little bit bigger at times. The standout spots (NW, SW, and combo) will be more in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets mixing in before the tide gets too high. Look for overall shape and rideability to slow down as the tide peaks but expect size and shape to return pretty fast as the tide drains and more energy fills in.

Sunday the NW swell (285-300 with the sweet spot in the 290-300 range) will peak as it mixes with some holding/peaking SW swell (200-220). We will see some decent energy from the NW’er but due to the steeper swell direction it will definitely have some shadowed areas, which if you are looking for bigger waves, you should avoid. Basically the swell is going to only hit “great” at the better NW facing spots…the other less exposed/shadowed areas are going to be smaller, in some cases much smaller. Pay close attention to the CDIP chart…I know it doesn’t have the best resolution but you can still see how the swell is expected to wrap into Socal…and the shadows that both Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands cast along the coast.

Surf on Sunday is going to vary quite a bit spot to spot…but overall we can expect the average exposed breaks to build into the chest-shoulder high range, with a few shoulder high+ sets mixing in at times. The Top NW facing breaks like those in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with sets going overhead+ at times…maybe even a couple of feet+ overhead on the peaks if the spot can pick up some of the SW energy as well.

Winds look ok…sort of squirrelly on Saturday and then cleaner on Sunday.

Saturday will have some NW-NNW winds moving through the outer waters that is threatening to spin up a semi-eddy. Santa Barbara down through LA look pretty clean, but OC and SD may see some variable onshore wind in the morning…not enough to blow it out, but potentially chunking it up in some areas. Afternoon winds build out of the NW in the 10-15 knot range.

Saturday Morning Winds

Sunday winds will be light and variable to light offshore for the morning…mostly clean conditions and only bit of overcast skies at times. Look for variable onshore texture by midday and then building W-WSW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.

Sunday Morning Winds

Like I said…it looks fun this weekend…maybe a little funky on Saturday at times but better than the flatness of the last few days. If I had to pick one day to surf…Sunday would be the call…the new NW’er peaks, the SW swell is helping to combo up in the background and both the winds are lighter and the high tide hits a little later in the day freeing the dawn patrol from the Swampthing. Remember not to expect this swell to show all that well in every area…I do think that we will have rideable waves in most places…but you are definitely going to want to watch your swell windows if you are looking for the bigger, most consistent surf.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend

Saturday
01:19AM LST 3.4 H
05:00AM LST 2.9 L
11:20AM LST 5.6 H
07:24PM LST -0.2 L

Sunday – The most awesome day ever…anyone born on this day is obviously special
02:42AM LST 3.6 H
06:41AM LST 3.1 L
12:36PM LST 5.0 H
08:32PM LST 0.1 L

Remember that I have more detailed regional forecast stuff in the local forecasts…check them out.

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Transworld Surf Forecast – Fear the Giant Red Blob

2009-11-06T11:15:00.001-08:00

Hey gang my latest TransworldSURF Forecast is up on their website. It has a lot of my sweet drawings (they are so awesome that I will probably have an art-gallery showing soon), a bunch of nonsense that I wrote down, and some more details on the NW’er that is going to hit this weekend.

Check it out when you get a chance…no rush…just do it right now. (sorry I am frisky today for some reason). Seriously do it now.

http://surf.transworld.net/features/west-coast-weekend-surf-forecast-3/

Surf for Friday – Slowly building

2009-11-05T17:33:00.000-08:00

Friday looks more rideable than it has been compared to the last couple of days…but it is still a ways away from what I would call a surf day.

We are going to start off with leftover NW/SW energy showing at most spots in the morning…but a new medium-short period NW swell (290-300) will start to filter into exposed breaks as we move through the day.

Look for most of the average WNW-NW facing breaks to start off around knee high with some waist high sets mixing in. Top NW facing spots, mostly up around Ventura (and maybe the South Bay), will have some chest-high+ sets showing before the tide gets too high. NW spots in SD won’t see much new size in the morning, but that swell will fill in more by the afternoon.

Winds are still a little spotty for tomorrow, which is another reason that it won’t be a “surf-day”…the models can’t really decide on how things are going to shake out tomorrow. Based on what I have been looking at…it looks like we are going to see some light/variable to light/onshore texture for most areas in the morning. If the COAMPS are to be believed there may be some moderate onshore bump for the SB/Ventura areas in the morning. NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for all areas by the afternoon.

So there it is…not much improvement, but still better than being flat. The morning tide moves back a little bit so if you can get on it early shape won’t be horribly swampy (but you might want to write-off midmorning. Personally I am planning on giving the cams a check…maybe a quick drive-by if the winds don’t look bad…but overall I am not expecting to do much surf board riding tomorrow. Stick to the small wave gear if you do head out…you will probably be able to squeeze a little more fun from the conditions.

Here are the tides…

03:59AM LST 2.7 L
10:21AM LST 6.0 H
06:16PM LST -0.4 L

Remember the new regional forecasts are up and running…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/05/2009

2009-11-05T15:19:00.001-08:00

Forecast Overview

Our surf starts to slowly increase on Friday as new NW swell creeps in along with some building local windswell. A better NW swell, from the edges of the big storm in the Gulf of Alaska, will begin to blend into the mix on Saturday and will eventually peak on Sunday with some head high+ surf at the standout breaks. A smaller, but still rideable SW swell slips into the combo spots and good S-SW facing breaks Sunday and Monday. Make sure to watch out for slightly funky weather and the large tidal swings as we move through the weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Look for a slow start on Friday but our surf will eventually start to increase as a new NW swell (290-300) begins to send in some short-medium period energy and a weak windswell/SW swell hold in the background. Surf for the morning will average around knee high with a few slightly bigger sets showing at the standout NW facing breaks. Look for better NW spots to build into the waist-chest high range by the evening…top spots will be slightly bigger at times. Winds/Weather: Winds will be little unstable Friday morning…overall it looks light and variable but with a few pockets of onshore texture in a few areas. Expect NW winds 10-15+ knots to build in through the afternoon.

Saturday
Our mix of NW swell (290-300) gets a little bigger as we see some extra energy from local windswell and the first long-period bits from the bigger NW swell (again 290-300+)…SW swell leftovers continue to hold in the background. Look for the average WNW-NW facing breaks to bump up to the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW spots, particularly those from LA northward, will see some chest-shoulder high waves as the swell mix fills in and a chance for some bigger sets by the late afternoon/evening. Winds/Weather: Still looking a little funky windwise...a cold front is expected to pass through the area this weekend and the wind models are calling for N-NW winds around 10 knots for SB/Ventura. OC and SD would see more W-WSW onshore flow in the 5-6 knot range. LA for some reason looks more E-SE winds with some almost eddyish circulation pulling winds around through the South Bay.

Sunday
The new NW swell (290-300+ with lots of shadowing from Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands) will peak as a new SW swell (200-220) fills in a bit more. Look for the average NW spots to build into the chest-shoulder high occasionally head high range. Standout NW facing spots, in Ventura, The South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently in the shoulder-head high+ range with some inconsistent overhead+ sets mixing in. SW facing spots will be more in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW breaks, mostly through South OC/North SD, see some inconsistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: winds clean up…mostly light and variable in the morning with some pockets of onshore texture at the really wind sensitive areas. Look for NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.

Monday
The NW’er (290-300+) will start to slowly back off along with the smaller SW swell (200-220). Average NW spots see chest-shoulder high sizes while the top spots see more chest-head high surf with some plus sets still showing in the morning. SW breaks continue to hold in the waist-chest high+ range. Winds/Weather: Conditions look pretty good…mostly light and variable winds through the morning, even light offshore for a couple of areas. NW winds around 10-14 knots build in through the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Storm activity definitely picked up in the North Pacific over the last few days. We had moderate storm spin through our swell window earlier this week that will send in some playful/rideable waves on Friday and into Saturday.

A much bigger storm is grinding through the Gulf of Alaska right now that will be sending a large NW swell to Northern and Central California this weekend…and a smaller version of this swell to Southern California. You can get a lot more details on this storm and how the energy will hit Nor/Cen California on the swell-alert that I sent out earlier…you can read the alert here…

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/11/swell-alert-large-wnwer-heading-to.html

Southern California will see that new NW swell (290-300+) fill in slowly through the day on Saturday and then peak on Sunday before slowly fading on Monday. As the swell peaks look for many spots to have consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets. Standout breaks will be shoulder-overhead pretty consistently with some bigger overhead+ waves sneaking in at times.

Further Out the NPAC is going to calm down a little bit…it won’t go totally quiet but overall activity does back down a lot. At this point it looks like we will see another playful sized chest-shoulder high NW swell (285-300) that moves in around the 11-12th. Not much showing after that one…at least right now.

South Pacific
The SPAC is still a snoozefest thanks to a stubborn ridge of high pressure holding position across a lot of the mid-latitudes…we will have a slightly better SW’er showing this upcoming weekend. This SW swell (210-220) that came from an ok, but not great, storm over by New Zealand. This new pulse will start to arrive on Saturday…build slowly, with inconsistent sets, throughout the day and will eventually peak on Sunday/Monday with surf in the waist-high+ range for many spots and a few chest high+ sets at the standout SW facing breaks. There will be a much stronger NW swell in the water at the time…so expect this swell to get mostly lost at the NW/SW combo spots…but hopefully it will add enough energy that we see some peakier shape at the better exposed breaks.

Further Out there isn’t much showing on the long-range charts…just a little bit of fetch hanging around New Zealand that will continue to poop out some weak SW pulses that will filter in as we head toward the middle of the month.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
There is a little tropical disturbance starting to pull together down by Mainland Mexico that is showing some signs of development.

Overall tropical weather conditions are decent…so this may actually become a tropical depression…maybe more…in the next couple of days though even if it does strengthen it would still be several more days before it could reach the Socal swell window. Still it bears watching though…I’ll let you know if anything changes.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Swell Alert – Large WNW’er heading to Northern and Central California…Socal gets some scraps

2009-11-05T13:54:00.000-08:00

This storm has been showing on the wave-height charts for days…a bright red angry meatball of 35- to 40-foot+ seas sitting right in the heart of the Gulf of Alaska.

If you have been reading the long-range forecasts, you already know that this storm formed thanks to a blending of a cold frontal low and a couple of different pockets of extra-tropical activity…one that bled into the storm track over by Japan and another that jumped into the mix just NE of the Hawaiian Islands. As usual these infusions of extra-tropical energy helped to greatly intensify the higher-latitude storm, making it both larger in size and helping to strengthen winds.

Check out what the QuikSCAT satellite is showing today…and remember this isn’t a forecast or a wave-model…these are “actual” recorded wind speeds…

This storm is managing to through together a huge area of intense fetch…40-50 knots of wind across an area approximately 1000 miles wide and 2000+ miles long…which is why the wave-models are going bonkers. Here are a couple of shots of that storm on the NOAA/GOES satellites.

On these you can see the “swirl” of the storm as the cold-front plows through a warmer air-mass positioned over the Gulf. The stuff you really want to pay attention to is the torn up clouds that follow that swirl…the winds of the storm behind the front are what is shredding the clouds.

Seeing those clouds, hopefully moving towards your location even if they are way out in the ocean, is a good thing. It means that the winds of the storm are intense enough that it is blowing both in the upper atmosphere AND along the surface…which is what we need for generating swell.

Ok I think that is enough weather nerdery for now…lets talk about the surf.

As the title of this post states…this is an Alert for Northern and Central California…not for Southern California. Yes we will get some waves from this storm pushing past Point Conception but they will be a shadow of what the directly exposed spots will be seeing.

Unfortunately for Southern California most of the storms fetch has developed a bit too far north to do us much good. Here are the swell windows overlaid on that same QuikSCAT chart…

You can see that most of the intense stuff is occurring above Socal’s NW swell cutoff, which is right about 300-degrees. However there is some less intense fetch that is in our window…so we will see some waves. (I put on the prime NW swell window for NorCal on that chart too…you can see that the strongest part of the storm is sitting right in the regions WNW-NW sweet spot.)

Northern and Central California

This new WNW-NW swell (280-320…but with most of the energy around 290-315) will start to arrive late on Friday overlapping with some energy from an earlier NW swell. I expect some large sets to begin pushing in later in the afternoon on Friday, particularly at spots North of San Francisco.

The peak of the swell will hit on Saturday Nov 7th. This swell in open water is expected to be around 15-18’ @ 15-16 second periods…pretty damn large. At this point it looks like average exposed NW spots will be easily in the double to triple-overhead range, while the better exposed spots see more consistent triple-overhead sizes …and bigger bombs mixing in. Deepwater spots, breaks that focus this sort of energy, have the potential to be a lot bigger. Spots with protection, like many of the breaks in Santa Cruz will be more manageable since the swell angle is pretty NW…not as much energy will be able to wrap around the corner. Winds and weather are a little spotty…NW winds 10 knots and some scattered rain on tap for the morning. NW winds 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon, stronger the further North you go.

The swell will hold through the day on Saturday and then start to slowly wind down on Sunday…still big with lots of double-triple overhead sets. Conditions look better as high-pressure starts to shift winds to the North-NNE for most areas. This looks like a better day overall, mostly because of the improving conditions.

Quick Note on the Maverick’s contest - it sounds like the competitors in the Mav’s contest voted not to have the contest on this swell…they want to wait for a better swell and/or better conditions. Really Mav’s likes to have some longer periods and the swell to be a little more WNW than NW to help the shape of the bowl. Whatever…these dudes are crazy. You can check the contest site (and sign up for updates) here…

http://www.maverickssurf.com/

Southern California

We will see this new NW swell (290-300+) start to arrive through the day on Saturday and eventually peak on Sunday before fading out on Monday.

On Saturday we will already have some surf showing thanks to a smaller storm that pushed through before the big one formed...so the day will start off with some playful NW energy in the waist-chest high range at the top spots. The new NW swell will start to show in the afternoon, particularly in the exposed areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura since they are a little closer to the action.

The new NW swell (290-300) will peak overnight into Sunday morning…by then we can expect all of the average WNW-NW facing spots, as well as a few combo spots, to be in the chest-shoulder high range. Top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, can expect shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets...wouldn’t be surprised to see sets going a couple of feet overhead+ at the best spots. Winds look a little funky for Sunday…so we are going to need to keep an eye on that, hopefully it is just the models acting up with storm front passing by to the north of us.

I am still being a little conservative on my wave heights for Socal…(hey I am a belt and suspenders sort of guy when it comes to this stuff)… so it is possible that we see a little more size if the later parts of this storm pull together in a better position than the charts are indicating today. I will let you know if I see anything change.

Flatness for Thursday – Not much to ride

2009-11-04T15:49:00.001-08:00

Thursday will not be a surf day.

Our swell mix will continue to wind down on Thursday…and while it won’t go totally flat everywhere in Socal it will certainly feel like it. Swellwise we are going to see the weak leftovers from our NW swell (295-300 now), some small/inconsistent SW energy (200-220), and almost nominal windswell energy that is just sort of swirling around on the buoys.

Average spots are going to be ankle-knee high through the morning…a little closer to knee high before (and after) the high tide swamps things out. Top NW facing spots, mostly through parts of San Diego, will hit around knee-waist high with a few rare waist high+ sets on the lower tides.

Winds are forecast to be light tomorrow morning but we are expecting a weak cold front to push down the coast over Socal throughout the day. If the front speeds up there is a chance we would see some building onshore texture in some areas. Look for building W-WSW winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon…not enough to really blow out the protected spots, but we have no surf so whatever. Even the wind model is sort of ambivalent for tomorrow…almost like it can’t be bothered to make up its mind…it must be ticked that we don’t have any surf too.

Really the best bet tomorrow is going to be surfing your pillow…that is what I am planning on doing…but if you absolutely have to surf (some sort of OCD thing you have) then try and get to the beach early before the tide gets to high and the winds come up to much.

Here are the tides

03:16AM LST 2.4 L
09:33AM LST 6.2 H (don’t surf here)
05:16PM LST -0.6 L
11:57PM LST 3.5 H

Remember the new regional forecasts are up and running…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Waves for Wednesday – a little smaller and now with new forecasts!

2009-11-03T16:59:00.001-08:00

Wednesday will be rideable (in places)…but again the high tide and mostly leftover swell mix will keep it from being much of a surf day.

In the water we are going to see a mix of fading NW energy (290-300), some minor pulses from the SW (200-220), and a touch of local NW windswell that will creep into exposed spots by the afternoon.

Wave heights are going to average in the knee high range for most of the average spots…though a few of the better-than-average breaks may pull in some waist high sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing spots and the good combo breaks, mostly in San Diego, will be in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. Expect some long waits between waves even at the top spots. Also the tide is going to be a bit of a pain…the 6’+ high tide peaks right around 9am and it will do its best to swamp out rideable shape almost everywhere.

Winds look ok in the morning, not great, just ok. Overall I think we are going to see light and variable conditions for most areas during the dawn patrol…maybe a few pockets of bump here and there as some patchy fog moves around the coast. W winds around 10-knots will push in around lunchtime and should be getting into the 10-15 knot range later in the evening. Here is a shot from the COAMPS model…it is still pretty confident that winds will be light (even light-offshore in some places for the morning)…but I think that may be a bit optimistic considering the fog (and the weird fog winds that usually come along with it).

With our swell mix on the weak side, and the stupid high tide steamrolling through midmorning, I don’t think you should spend lot of time trying to get waves tomorrow. If you absolutely have to surf, try and get out early while the winds are still light and the tide hasn’t come up too far…it won’t be very good but at least you’ll have a shot at getting some rideable waves.

Hey gang…check it out…I set up some new forecast pages for each of the SoCal counties. These forecasts are going to be dialed in better for each region, with local tides, local wave heights as well as winds and conditions. They may be a little more bare-bones at first as I get into the groove of setting them up. I will continue to post the more detailed overview and the Long-Range Surf Forecast for all of Socal on this lovely page.

Here are the links for each of the regions...I am still working out some of the links and formatting issues but they are up and running. Let me know what you think.

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

And finally here are the tides…

02:40AM LST 2.1 L
08:52AM LST 6.3 H
04:23PM LST -0.7 L
10:50PM LST 3.6 H

Transworld Surf Forecast – the North Pacific is set to go boom

2009-11-02T21:45:00.001-08:00

If you read the long-range forecast that I posted this morning (or have looked at any of the swell models) you already know that the North Pacific is getting ready to lay down a smacking on the West Coast.

The majority of the energy will be heading to the Pacific NW as well as Northern and Central California. (Socal will get some waves but will be quite a bit smaller thanks to shadowing from Point Conception as well as the Nearshore Islands).

I go into a little more detail for Northern and Central California in the forecast for Transworld, and talk a little bit more about why and how this storm is pulling together…give it a read when you get a chance.

http://surf.transworld.net/features/west-coast-surf-forecast/

Tuesday’s Surf – still a few fun ones hiding out there

2009-11-02T16:18:00.001-08:00

Tuesday will be an ok/marginal surf day in select areas…but both the tide and the generally small swell will cause problems at times.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of holding/fading NW swells (290-300 but with most of the energy above the 295-degree mark) and some background SW energy (200-220). The NW’er is pretty steeply angled so it is only showing at the really exposed winter breaks…check out how is filters through the nearshore islands on the CDIP…

The average spots are going to see just a minor touch of the NW energy and the background SW swell…so they are going to stay on the small side…mostly in the knee-waist high range. Standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range with a couple of bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides.

Winds look good again…mostly light and variable to light-offshore for the morning. W winds around 10-12 knots will build up in the afternoon but shouldn’t be bad enough to chunk up shape horribly, I would keep an eye on a potential clean-up near the end of the day.

Like I said it will be surfable, even sort-of fun, in the areas with NW exposure…or really good NW combo spots. It won’t, however, be all that consistent or big even at the top breaks. I would plan on trying to avoid the high tide, and sticking to your small wave gear…mostly longboards at the average spots but you might be able to get away with a thicker fishy board at a few of the standout breaks that can handle a little bit more tide.

Here are the tides…have a good one.

02:08AM LST 1.8 L
08:17AM LST 6.3 H
03:36PM LST -0.7 L
09:54PM LST 3.7 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/02/2009

2009-11-02T13:23:00.000-08:00

Forecast Overview

We will have some rideable but fading NW swell showing through the middle of the week (when the tide isn’t swamping it out). Smaller less consistent SW energy will sort of wander around aimlessly in the background keeping the summer spots from being totally flat but not helping them be all that rideable either. A much stronger North Pacific storm is forecast to form later this week…chance for some larger NW swell this upcoming weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
Our small NW swell (290-300) will slowly start to fade while it mixes with some minor energy from the SW. We will still have some high-tide issues in the morning keeping shape soft…so don’t expect much to be able to break through as the tide peaks midmorning. Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at the average NW-WNW facing breaks. Standout NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego and parts of Ventura, will have more consistent waist high waves with some chest high sets mixing in. Overall shape and consistency improve as the tide drops. Winds/Weather: Nice conditions on tap through the morning…light and variable to light-offshore winds for the first part of the day. Chance for some pockets of fog out there as well. W winds around 10-12 knots build in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
The small mix of NW swell (290-300) and SW energy (200-220) will continue to back down slowly while local windswell starts to filter in from the outer waters. The average NW exposed spots and the ok combo breaks will have more knee-waist high waves. Standout NW facing spots will be more in the waist-to-inconsistent-chest high range. Again a 6’ high tide peaks right in midmorning (around 8:30-8:50am) and tries to flatten out the shape. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light offshore for most areas…a few more fog pockets and areas of low clouds. Building W winds top out around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

Thursday
The NW’er (290-300) fades almost completely away while a new (but small and inconsistent) SW swell (210-220) moves in from the Southern Hemi. Some weak local windswell will also hold in the background. Wave heights don’t change much with most spots holding around knee-waist high on the better sets. Top NW/SW facing combo spots will see some occasional waist-chest high sets. Tide will still be an issue by Thursday…but the peak of the high is pushing further back in the day…now closer to 9:30…try and avoid it if you can. Winds/Weather: Winds will be light and variable through the morning. W winds around 10-14 knots push onshore later in the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is starting to wake up from its short Halloween nap and I am seeing a lot of new activity in this afternoon’s forecast run. At this point it looks like most of the developing storm action is going to form a bit “northerly” for our swell window…but the storm looks big enough that we will get some fun surf from the edge of the fetch, and there is always a chance for more size if the system sets up a little lower in latitude as it forms over the next few days.
We do have a couple of little storms spinning around the mid-latitudes this afternoon that will pulse out some minor NW swell before the bigger swell arrives. We can expect a slight knee-chest high+ NW swell (290-300) arriving on Friday the 6th…nothing major by any means, but at least something to ride. Check it out…you can see part of the storm on the QuikSCAT data from this afternoon.

The main storm is forecast to form in about 3 days…this is another one of those intense storms that are formed by extra-tropical energy mixing together with a colder higher-latitude frontal storm. What is a little weird about this one is that it pulls energy from 2 extra-tropical systems…one from over by Japan and the other from a tropical wave near Hawaii. It looks like this double-dose of energy really fires up the initial intensity of the storm…and helps to swing it down into a more exposed position as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Check out the forecast Sea-Level-Pressure from FNMOC…

And here is the WavewatchIII sea-heights…I think my drawing sums up this storm nicely.

Swellwise, since the forecasts are calling for the majority of this storm’s energy to be fairly high up in the Gulf of Alaska, I am not expecting Southern California to get much more of a glancing shot of swell. Look for this new NW energy (290-300, but with lots more energy coming in 295+) to fill into SoCal throughout the day of the 7th and then peak overnight into the 8th. At this point it looks good for chest-shoulder high+ surf for the average WNW-NW facing spots…and shoulder-overhead sizes at the best NW facing spots like those in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay. It is worth noting that I am being a little conservative on the wave heights at this point…mostly because the storm hasn’t formed yet, but also because there is a lot of dynamic activity that takes place pretty close to our side of the Pacific…if the storm pops a little lower in latitude we could see more size added into the forecast.

Thoughts on Northern/Central California for this swell
Spots north of Point Conception have a chance to be pretty massive…the current model run is showing nearly 18-feet of deepwater energy around 16-17 seconds…and winds don’t look horrible either, though it may be raining up that way. The WNW-NW swell (285-320) arrives a day earlier there too…they would see long-period energy arrive on Friday (Nov 6th) and the peak of the swell hit Saturday (Nov 7th) and then fade slowly on Sunday. Sizewise…I would expect the average spots to be running an easy double-triple overhead with some bigger bombs mixing in. Deepwater spots like Mavs could easily see 20-25’ faces…with bigger sets…probably enough size to run the Mav’s contest if they wanted to.

South Pacific
The SPAC is still being a boring ocean…there has been a few little out of position storms but nothing that will be sending us any sort of significant surf…just some minor background pulses for the next couple of days and a slightly better SW’er for this upcoming weekend. This upcoming SW swell (210-220) will be from an ok but not great storm over by New Zealand that will send us an inconsistent waist-chest high SW swell (210-220) for around the 8-9th of November.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Pretty quiet down this way…no new activity forecast to develop for the next few days.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Monday’s Surf – Picking up slightly and with a touch of offshores

2009-11-01T14:18:00.000-08:00

Monday still won’t be much of a surf day.

Sure…conditions will be clean through the morning and we will have a touch of new NW swell (290-300 with most of the every above 295-degrees) mixing in with the minor NW and SW leftovers we already have in the water...but the new swell it isn’t very strong to begin with, it is also shadowed by the more northerly swell angle, and to top it off, it has to power through a 6’ high tide right smack in the middle of the morning session. Basically the combo of a weak swell mix and a solid morning high tide is going to shut down much chance of it being a “surf day”.

Wave heights for tomorrow are going to continue to hold around knee high at the average spots with a few rare waist high sets mixing in on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks will be a touch bigger, mostly in the knee-waist high range with some rare chest high sets. Unfortunately like I mentioned before the high-tide is going to flatten out all but the most tide resilient breaks…really with this much water even the spots that like a “higher” tide are going to have some issues.

Winds will be good…light to moderate offshore in the morning…sort of classic Fall conditions. Winds will stay light through midday and then turn onshore out of the WNW around 10-14 knots at the more exposed areas.

I think our best bet is to try and wait for the tide to drop…hopefully we will be able to see a few lines start to show as we head towards lunchtime. I wouldn’t waste a lot of time looking for waves in the morning, just too much tide already for most places. Even if you can stall out your session till the tide drops plan on bringing the small wave boards (mostly longboards) and expect to be sitting around most of the time while waiting for rideable sets.

Here are the tides…

01:39AM LST 1.6 L
07:45AM LST 6.1 H (swampthing!)
02:54PM LST -0.5 L
09:05PM LST 4.0 H

Waves for the weekend – on the weak side

2009-10-30T14:54:00.000-07:00

Saturday and Sunday will both be clean and small but the combo of high tides and general lack of waves will keep it from being very surfy.

Not much surf on tap this weekend…just minor pulses of NW (290-300), some SW (200-220) leftovers as well as a tiny touch of windswell.

Saturday Morning Swell

Sunday Morning Swell

Average spots that can pick up some of the swell mix are going to hang in the knee high range through the weekend with a few rare waist high sets sneaking through on the lower tides.

Standout NW facing spots and the good NW/SW combo breaks will be more consistently in the knee-waist high range…again with a couple of waist-high+ sets on the lower tides.

Overall we can expect shape to be soft, slow, and close to shore at the best of times. When the high tides peak many spots will be almost completely unrideable…turning into mostly shorebreak lappers… so you are going to want to avoid them if you can…if not, well try and stick to spots that can handle a lot of extra water (particularly in the morning).

Winds look ok for the next couple of days…sort of light/variable to light offshore in the mornings, with a touch more onshore texture on Saturday morning. Afternoon winds stay on the moderate side…right in the NW 10-14 knot range.

Saturday Morning Winds

Sunday Morning Winds

I wish we had more surf coming through this weekend…it is a shame to have nice conditions without much to ride. It won’t be completely flat if you can stay away from the high tides…but definitely plan on bringing your small wave gear…longboards will probably be best if you weigh over 100-lbs.

Here are the tides…gave a good weekend and a great Halloween! (Oh and the time change is this weekend...make sure to change your clocks).

Saturday
01:45AM LDT 1.2 L
07:52AM LDT 5.6 H
02:41PM LDT 0.3 L
08:38PM LDT 4.2 H

Sunday
01:11AM LST 1.4 L
07:17AM LST 5.9 H
02:16PM LST -0.2 L
08:20PM LST 4.1 H

Transworld Surf Forecast – Solid swell for Hawaii and NorCal…Socal gets left out.

2009-10-30T13:31:00.001-07:00

My latest forecast overview is up over on transworldSURF…and since Socal is going to be pretty darn small this weekend I took a broader look at the Pacific.

Hawaii was starting to look really good as a new swell filled in last night…I saw some legit looking sets coming in on the Pipeline cams…and only about 60 guys on the shoulder. Anyway…Hawaii is going to get another round of swell on Halloween and should stay large all the way into the middle of next week…so if you are jonesing to watch some big waves (or ride them) you might want to let your attention wander out that way.

For more details check out the TransworldSurf website…

http://surf.transworld.net/features/west-coast-and-hawaii-weekend-surf-forecast/

Surf for Friday – Swamptacular!

2009-10-29T15:55:00.001-07:00

Friday will be a nice beach day (once it warms up)…but there isn’t going to be much surf.

We will have a mix of quickly fading short-period NW energy and some stubborn (and small) SW swell (200-220) that is holding in the background. Expect the NW swell to continue to drop off as we move through the day.

Unfortunately the dawn patrol is going to get whacked with a 5’+ high tide that will peak right around 7:30am, which is going to steamroll the surf at most breaks. Once the tide starts dropping we will have a little surf sneak through setting up some knee-knee high+ waves at the average exposed spots…and maybe a little waist high set on the breaks that handle the higher tides a little better. The standout NW facing spots, mostly through Southern SD, Southern Ventura, and parts of the South Bay, will have a little more size…more in the knee-waist high range on the average sets and then a couple waist-chest high waves on the biggest sets. Remember to watch the tide…even the top spots are going to flatten out as it peaks.

Winds look good tomorrow (of course we don’t have surf so they don’t need to mess with us)…look for light-offshore for most beaches and some slightly stronger offshore gusts at the usual wind-prone passes and canyons. Winds stay light for the afternoon…just coming onshore around 5-10 knots later in the day.

So for tomorrow…I would probably stay in bed. It will be butt-cold again tomorrow morning and the water temps have dropped down into the upper 50’s in some areas…to top it off the weak swell mix will be burgered out with the peaking tide…so there won’t even be much to paddle for that could help keep you warm. Personally I am going to take it easy in the morning…maybe go on donut patrol…wait for the air to warm up and the tide to drop. Hopefully the tide will drain enough to set up a few longboard peaks before the wind starts to tweak it too much.

Here are the tides…

01:19AM LDT 1.1 L
07:31AM LDT 5.2 H
02:07PM LDT 0.9 L
07:56PM LDT 4.2 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/29/2009

2009-10-29T15:06:00.001-07:00

Forecast Overview

Mostly leftovers on tap for the next few days…the weather will be nice, but there won’t be much to ride. Look for small, tide swamped surf over the weekend and slight increase in NW swell (290-300) as we move into early next week. Long-range charts are showing some better activity…but the storms are still several days from forming.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Wave heights will be on the way down on Friday…the last of our NW windswell mix (290-300) will be dropping off leaving us with some very minor (and inconsistent) SW swell (200-220). Wave heights are going to hold around knee high for the average NW-combo exposed breaks. There may be a few waist high sets sneaking into the “average” spots…but the morning tide is going to shut it almost completely down. The top NW facing spots…mostly through Southern San Diego and Southern Ventura…will be more consistently in the knee-waist high range with some rare chest waves on the biggest sets. Winds/Weather: Of course now that the surf has dropped our weather improves. Friday will be a pretty nice day…sunny skies and light/moderate offshore winds for most spots in the morning. Mostly light WNW-W winds in the 8-10 knot range push onshore through the afternoon.

Saturday
The small surf will continue as we slog through a weak mix of leftover NW windswell and some inconsistent background pulses of SW energy (190-220)…basically just enough juice to keep it from going completely flat (though it will feel completely flat thanks to a 5’ high tide that hits right around 7-8am). Most spots will continue to see knee high surf with some very inconsistent waist high sets. Standout combo spots will be more consistently around knee-waist high…with a couple of rare waist-high+ sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Clean again on Saturday…mostly light and variable to light offshore in the morning and only weak onshore flow building out of the W (5-8 knots) for the afternoon.

Sunday
Ugh…the near flatness continues…do I really have to write this again? Oh ok….it won’t be totally flat but the lovely 6’ high tide in the morning is going to swampthing us for sure…(Slimy! Mud hole! My home this is!). Look for more knee high wavelets from the leftover NW/SW energy (and a slight little increase in inconsistent SW swell). The top spots hold around knee-waist high+ but have issues with the tides…just like everywhere else. Winds/Weather: Clear skies, light winds, clean conditions. Winds will be light/variable through the morning and then turn NW around 10-12 knots during the afternoon.

Monday
We finally start to see an increase in size…unfortunately it is from a NW swell with some pretty steep swell angles (295-300) that managed to push all the way across the North Pacific without much support. Look for the average spots to continue to hold around knee-waist high. Standout NW facing spots will see some better knee-chest high surf, while a few of the spots that really like long-period NW swells see some more consistent waist-chest high+ sets. Winds/Weather: More of the same…mostly light and variable winds through the morning and then building NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Thanks to a pretty solid ridge of high-pressure holding sway over most of the NE Pacific we haven’t see much storm activity moving through the good parts of our swell window, which means…ah you guessed it…that we don’t have much swell on tap from this region right now.

Basically the only swell producing storm that managed to pull together was a very intense (but very far away) extra-tropical typhoon over by the Kamchatka Peninsula (go ahead and google it…I can wait). This storm did put together some 50-60+ knot winds as it tore through the waters NE of Japan but it was right on the edge of our swell window and moved north at a semi-oblique angle before it started coming apart just South of the Bering Sea. It did manage to get off a shot of NW swell heading our way but most of the energy is aimed at spots North of Point Conception and the combination of swell decay and shadowing once it finally gets to SoCal isn’t going to help either.

Further Out we don’t have anything set in stone…but I am starting to see some storm action waaay out on the charts. If it pulls together, we would be looking at new WNW-NW swell heading our way for the 6-8th of November.

South Pacific
Still not much happening in this region so the forecast hasn’t changed from earlier this week. Basically high-pressure is blocking the Southern Hemi sweet spot and it isn’t forecast to go anywhere anytime soon, which means that any swell that we get will be sort of around the edges of that blocking-high. There are a couple of storms drifting sort of aimlessly around New Zealand, and over by South America, but neither look particularly good. At this point I am not seeing anything that I would call a “significant” swell…just a couple of weaker background pulses that will push in over the next week or so.

The next, slightly better, S-SSW pulse (190-200) arrives around the 30th….likely in the waist high surf for most spots. Even further out there is a little storm over by New Zealand that will send us an inconsistent waist-chest high SW swell (210-220) for around the 8-9th of November.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
We have a little tropical disturbance down off the coast of Mainland Mexico but it doesn’t look very organized at this point…any development will take a few days…if it happens at all.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Thursday – Much cleaner but fading fast

2009-10-28T16:12:00.001-07:00

I don’t think I am going to call Thursday a “surf day”…yes it will be rideable, and conditions will be a lot cleaner than Wednesday, but the windswell is going to drop fast and the higher morning tide isn’t going to do us any favors.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of quickly dropping NW windswell (285-300 with most of the energy around 295-300) and some background SW swell (200-220) crawling in from the Southern Hemisphere.

The average exposed spots…the breaks that have some exposure to the windswell mix…will be in the waist-chest high range through the morning. The standout NW facing spots, mostly the well exposed areas of Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will be in the waist-shoulder high range with still a few plus sets trying to power through the morning high tide. Since the swell is fading, look for the bigger waves to become less and less consistent as we move through into the afternoon.

Winds look much better for tomorrow…the fast moving cold front that spun up the winds for Wednesday is moving out of the area and high-pressure will build in its wake helping to set up some morning offshore winds. All areas can expect N-NE winds in the 5-10 knot range for tomorrow morning. The Santa Barbara, Ventura, and North LA areas may see some stronger gusts near passes and canyons. The winds will turn onshore out of the NW in the afternoon but should stay on the light side…right around 10-12 knots for most areas.

The windswell spots will definitely be the call tomorrow...the more NW exposure they have the better. Unfortunately the windswell doesn’t have a lot of kick to it…so even the top spots, which have some decent size, will be on the soft/rolly side. Your best bet is to find an exposed spot that likes both the shorter swell periods and the higher tides…preferably one that has a nice shallow sandbar for the windswell to throw itself over. Boardwise I personally think that a smaller/thicker board might be a good call…just so you can power through the mushy soft spots that you find in swells like these.

Here are the tides…

12:52AM LDT 1.0 L
07:11AM LDT 4.8 H
01:34PM LDT 1.4 L
07:14PM LDT 4.2 H

I am sure you noticed…but I am making a few changes to the layout of the blog (it is a little bit wider and is has new header!)…let me know what you think about the new set up. Also…now that I have some better ad-placements if any of you are interested in advertising on the site please drop me an email and we can go over the details. – Thanks! AW

Waves for Wednesday – Cleaning up…but expect some lingering bump

2009-10-27T17:53:00.000-07:00

Wednesday looks rideable…but we need our local winds to get their poop together in order for conditions to improve. I definitely think there will be some pockets of surfy-ness tomorrow…but “where” and “for how long” will depend a lot on how winds behave tonight.

NW windswell has been building through the outer waters all day today…unfortunately most of the energy is coming in at a very steep swell-angle, above 300-degrees, which means SoCal is seeing a lot of shadowing from Point Conception (and the Channel islands). It also doesn’t help that the swell’s periods are so short, around 6-10 seconds. At those periods the energy doesn’t really wrap…so if you aren’t directly exposed to the swell direction it will basically march right on past your spot. Check out the buoys from this afternoon (yes you are reading it right…the Harvest Buoy is holding around 17-feet…unfortunately most of its energy is getting blocked.

Here is the forecast for tomorrow morning…

As you can see on the CDIP forecast above…the majority of the energy is heading towards San Diego, with a couple of tendrils sneaking into Ventura, the South Bay, and some smaller leakage around OC/North SD.

Wave heights for tomorrow are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the “average” NW windswell spots. The better NW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets mixing in. The top San Diego windswell spots, mostly from La Jolla southward, will be running consistently in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead+ sets showing through the morning and then becoming less consistent by the afternoon.

Winds are really what is going to make or break the surf tomorrow. The forecast is calling for winds to start shifting from the NW to N/NNE as we move through the day tomorrow…but it is a little unclear how soon that shift will start. At this point, considering that the air-temps are dropping fast (and will just get colder tonight), I think that the shift is going to happened sooner rather than later…and that we might even see N-NNE winds for the dawn patrol tomorrow morning. The COAMPS model is sort of saying the same thing…

It still has a lot of N-NNW winds in the outer waters…but the coastal flow is getting routed through the passes and canyons and has more of a northerly tint to it. Here I zoomed in on the COAMPS winds for each region…

Santa Barbara and Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange County

San Diego

Based on this forecast it looks like the cleanest conditions will set up around North LA and Orange County…but with some side offshore winds in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego. Hopefully we will see more of a general offshore than this model is calling for…I am not holding my breath for that though.

For the morning…I think that you are going to want to check the various live wind stations and surf cams before driving very far to check the surf, if the wind doesn’t switch fast enough it may still be pretty ugly. If you live close to the beach, particularly near a good windswell spot, I would plan on at least giving it a drive-by if the winds don’t seem too bad.

Conditions will definitely improve more on Thursday but the windswell will be dropping off fast…lets cross our fingers that we can get a fast cleanup on tomorrow and take advantage of the swell.

Here are the tides…let me know if you find a few fun ones tomorrow.

12:22AM LDT 0.9 L
06:54AM LDT 4.5 H
12:59PM LDT 2.0 L
06:28PM LDT 4.1 H

Transworld Surf Forecast – Chunky windswell and some offshore winds

2009-10-27T10:21:00.000-07:00

My new forecast for Transworld Surf was posted this morning…it covers the North Pacific in a little more detail this week since we have a couple of new storms are starting to mix together over by Japan that will likely set up a decent sized NW swell for Northern and Central California. SoCal will get a small shot of this new energy as well…but a much smaller version compared to spots North of Point Conception.

Check it out when you get a chance…

http://surf.transworld.net/features/weekly-west-coast-surf-forecast/

Surf for Tuesday – Small and sort of sloppy

2009-10-26T16:55:00.000-07:00

Tuesday won’t be a surf day…building onshore winds and mostly small morning swell will be a good reason to stay in bed.

We are going to see a mix of mostly leftover WNW and SW energy through Tuesday morning…just background energy still hanging on from the weekend. We will have building NW windswell starting to increase wave heights throughout the day but the NW winds are coming right along with it.

Wave heights are going to be mostly knee high at the average spots through the morning. The standout NW facing breaks will be more in the waist-chest high range on inconsistent sets. The top NW-WNW facing spots will start to see an increase in short-period windswell by the afternoon that will push size more into the chest high+ range with a few shoulder high sets coming through before dark.

Winds look pretty lame tomorrow…strong onshore flow is expected for most of the morning in the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas. Some of the models are showing a slight eddy spin setting up shop around Long Beach…possibly helping to both lighten wind speeds and bend winds back around to the S-SW for San Diego, Orange County, and the South Bay. Check out the COAMPS forecast for the morning.

You can see the eddy spin pretty clearly defined…just south of Long Beach Harbor. I am not sure how realistic this forecast is…but if it can pull together this way we could see pretty manageable winds for the South Bay, North OC, and then more S-SW’erly flow through San Diego (which a couple spots can handle down that way).

So for tomorrow…don’t be in a hurry to get down to the beach…even if the winds are lighter than the current forecast says they will be, we still won’t have any significant swell…and in my experience there isn’t much of a difference between bumpy/flat and smooth/flat. Personally I am going to cross my fingers that we get a lot of windswell spun up on Tuesday so that it can power enough rideable energy into Wednesday when conditions start to clean up,

Here are the tides…

06:36AM LDT 4.1 H
12:20PM LDT 2.5 L
05:34PM LDT 4.0 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/26/2009

2009-10-26T15:12:00.001-07:00

Forecast Overview

Building NW windswell (and increasing onshore winds) will push through on Tuesday and then fade on Wednesday as conditions clean up and winds shift more offshore. Small leftover WNW and SW swells will continue to hold in the background throughout the week. Looks like more offshore winds, and mostly smaller surf, on tap for the second half of the week.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
Local windswell will drive in new waves on Tuesday but it looks like conditions will fall apart as well. Swellwise we are going to have a mix of new NW windswell (290-300), fading WNW energy still leftover from the weekend, and some trace Southern Hemi SW swell. The average spots are going to hold in the knee-waist high range, particularly through the morning when the conditions are the cleanest. The standout NW facing spots, mostly in Ventura, San Diego, and a few select spots in the South Bay, will start off around waist-chest high on the bigger sets…but expect size to increase throughout the day…likely hitting the head high range by the end of the day. Winds/Weather: We see some strong winds develop in the outer waters that will be strengthening as they hook southward past Point Conception. Looks like variable onshore flow for most areas in the morning. Winds pick up out of the NW-NNW in the 10-20 knot range by the afternoon…probably stronger by the evening.

Wednesday
Looks like Wednesday is going to be the best “surf day” of the week…the gusty winds from Tuesday will shift around to the N-NE and turn offshore for many areas. The WNW-NW windswell will be fading fast through the day but there should be enough still showing that we can take advantage of the improving conditions. Besides the windswell we will only have a smaller mix of WNW/SW leftovers…so hopefully the windswell won’t drop out too fast. At this point it looks like the average spots will continue to run around waist high but with a couple of chest high sets. Standout NW facing breaks, again in San Diego, the South Bay, and Ventura, will hold around chest high but with some shoulder high+ sets at the really good windswell spots. Winds/Weather: N winds around 10-20 knots for the morning…lighter in the OC and San Diego areas....and stronger around Santa Barbara and Ventura.

Thursday
The conditions improve even more but the swell is going to back waaaaay off. Look for NW windswell leftovers mixing with a touch of WNW/SW background swell. Average spots will drop to about knee high with some rare knee high sets. Standout NW facing spots will be consistently around waist high and see a few chest high sets on the really good sandbars. Winds/Weather: N-NE winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for most of the morning. Look for the winds to back down and turn slightly onshore for the afternoon…sort of NW in the 10-12 knot range.

Long-Range

North Pacific
The short-range portion of the NPAC forecast is a bit of a snooze-fest. Sure we will get a few windswell waves thanks to increasing local winds in our outer waters but we won’t be seeing much long-period swell over the next few days.

Here are the winds setting up NW windswell that will push through and peak late Tuesday evening…

I used a larger-scale COAMPS chart than we normally look at so you could see how the winds are primarily pushing North-to-South parallel along the Northern/Central California coast. Eventually those winds do wrap a little more WNW’erly as it clears Point Conception, but it won’t have the same “punch” as it would if the fetch was more cleanly inside of our swell window. Size and shape for the windswell are going to depend a lot on how these winds actually develop.

Further Out the longer-range charts are bit better looking. There is an intense extra-tropical storm forming over in the West Pacific that is expected to drive NE over the Aleutians and feed a bunch of energy into the storm track…possibly helping out a better positioned storm just north of Hawaii. If, these two storms can mix correctly we would see a new, decent-sized WNW-NW swell that would arrive around Nov 1st. I wouldn’t get too fired up on this one just yet…it has several days to develop before it actually sends out swell, but a least we aren’t just hearing crickets chirping in the long-range forecast.

South Pacific
Zzzzzzzzz…oh sorry dozed off there for a moment…the SPAC is looking pretty boring right now. There are a couple of storms drifting sort of aimlessly around New Zealand, and over by South America, but neither look particularly good. At this point I am not seeing anything that I would call a “significant” swell…just a couple of weaker background pulses that will push in over the next week or so.

The next, slightly better, S-SSW pulse (190-200) arrives around the 30th….likely in the waist high surf for most spots. Even further out there is a little storm over by New Zealand that will send us an inconsistent waist-chest high SW swell (210-220) for around the 8-9th of November.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Not much happening in this region right now…the end of the “official” hurricane season is fast approaching and it doesn’t look like we are going to get much more activity before the end of the season.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for Monday – fading but a few fun ones still hanging in there

2009-10-25T17:00:00.001-07:00

Monday looks rideable…our morning conditions will clean, most of the weekend crowd will be gone…but the fading swell mix, and still sort-of swampy tidal swings will keep it from really getting all that good.

In the water we have a mix of overlapping WNW-NW swells (285-300 both of which are slowly fading), some background SSW swell (190-220), and a touch of local windswell.

The average WNW facing spots and the ok combo spots can expect surf in the waist high range with some chest high+ sets occasionally slipping through. The standout NW facing spots, like those in Southern Ventura and the better exposed areas in San Diego county, will see more consistent waist-chest high surf but with some shoulder high (and maybe slightly bigger) sets rolling through on the lower tide.

Winds look good tomorrow…mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore winds will help keep things clean through the morning. Look for building onshore winds by the afternoon…hitting in the NW 10-15 knot range later in the day.

Overall I think tomorrow will be rideable, but not all that exciting. The swell mix will be backing off and the morning tides are a little swampy (though not as bad as the 6’ highs we had last week)…and so our surf is going to be a bit soft in the morning. I would plan on bringing your smaller wave gear…or at least boards that can help you power through the morning softies. Personally I am going to hunt around the local beachbreak/sandbars and see if I can find a shallow sandbar that is handling the tide.

Here are the tides…have a good week!

06:19AM LDT 3.8 H
11:26AM LDT 3.1 L
04:24PM LDT 4.0 H
11:45PM LDT 0.9 L

Surf Photos – More Fall Love

2009-10-24T17:38:00.001-07:00

Hey gang…here are a few more photos submitted by you guys…all of them were taken over the last week.

Here is a Malibu section from last Tuesday (10/20)

Here is a shot of a LA County beach break sent in by Jeph Yusa over at the Liquidplayground Blog (Give his blog a check when you get a chance…he has some great photos). This was taken on Wednesday (10/21)

http://liquidplayground.blogspot.com

These last two are from Ventura this morning (10/24)

Feel free to send over a few more if you guys have some good ones. We (heart) surf photos.

Waves for the Weekend – Slowly fading swell mix

2009-10-23T17:22:00.001-07:00

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days…but we can expect slowly fading sizes and consistency as both the WNW and SW swells back down.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of overlapping WNW swells (290-300 with some burps of energy a little lower in angle…sort of 285-300) and some fading SW swell (200-220)

Saturday Morning

Sunday Morning

Wave heights are going to hold in the waist-chest high range at the average breaks while the better exposed NW facing spots, (with good exposure to swells over the 290-degree range), see more consistent waist-shoulder high+ sizes. The top breaks, both the top NW and the combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high sets…with some head high peaks still sneaking through. Sunday looks little bit more consistent as a new WNW-NW moves in to prop up the first swell.

Winds look good…mostly light and variable for Saturday morning and then a touch more offshore on Sunday. It doesn’t look as clean through the afternoons…NW winds will be on tap around the 10-14 knot range for both days. Expect some fog/overcast skies through the morning and then clearing skies as it burns off in the afternoon.

So for the weekend it will be worth getting out and catching a few…it won’t be outstanding…but it will be fun. The best shape will continue to show at the NW facing points and reefs. The combo beach breaks will be a little less fun as the SW swell fades out but may be worth checking if you are over the crowd at the points or just need a little lefthanded shoulder now and then.

Oh and I was just checking out the really long-range charts…and it looks like we might have some legit Santa Ana conditions developing around the middle of next week…maybe even a little swell too. It is still a few days from actually developing but I will definitely keep you guys posted as it does. Don't know about you guys but I love me some Santa Anas (well when the world doesn't burn down).

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

Saturday
01:08PM LDT 4.4 H
09:52PM LDT 0.9 L

Sunday
06:00AM LDT 3.6 H
09:37AM LDT 3.5 L
02:47PM LDT 4.0 H
10:57PM LDT 0.9 L

Transworld Surf Forecast – Solid swell on tap for the West Coast

2009-10-23T11:41:00.001-07:00

Hey gang…just wanted to let you know that my latest West Coast forecast has been posted over on transworld…again it is pretty similar to the long-range stuff I put up on this site but I do put in a lot more detail for Northern and Central California (where it is currently pumping on this new WNW-NW swell…I even talk about Mav’s being big enough to make me pee a little if I was sitting on the shoulder…how often do you get a forecast with that in it?!)

Anyhoo…give it a check when you get a chance.

http://surf.transworld.net/features/west-coast-weekend-surf-forecast-2/

The weekend forecast will be up in a few hours…hope you got some this morning it was pretty fun around North OC.