Sox Watch - Boston Red Sox WPA Statistics

Red Sox 2007 Regular Season WPA by Category

2007-10-29T17:33:00.000-04:00

After a yearlong hiatus, Sox Watch is back with some fresh new WPA statistics to celebrate the Red Sox' 2007 World Series Championship.

I haven't been publishing Red Sox WPA data on Sox Watch in 2007, since the days of manual WPA data collection are now long past - the fantastic Fan Graphs site now does a fantastic job of automatically collecting and publishing WPA data. However, the Fan Graphs data does not include one of the key aspects that I highlighted here on Sox Watch - the aggregate contributions by the offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching over the course of the season. So I've taken some of the raw WPA data from Fan Graphs and done some further processing to produce the aggregate totals that I had originally been publishing in 2006.

Here are the 2007 regular-season aggregate totals for offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching over the course of the season. The graph shows the WPA contribution from each category on a day-by-day basis.

The graph shows the dominant role the bullpen had in the Red Sox' success this year. The WPA for the relief pitchers was over 8.0 by the end of the year. The total WPA for the starting pitchers was just under 5.0, and the offense totaled just under 2.0.

It's interesting to observe the different patterns for the three categories. The bullpen maintained its strong performance almost throughout the whole season, slowing down slightly through the last two months. The starting pitching had some ups and downs, but generally also made steady progress throughout the season. The offense, on the other hand, had a three-phase season: red-hot for the first two months, ice cold through June and July, and hot again through the end of the year. Note that the total offensive WPA contribution was negative as late as August 6.

Red Sox Monthly WPA Leaders for August

2006-09-03T13:52:00.000-04:00

Last month I wrote that the monthly WPA rankings were getting a little bit boring, with Ortiz and Papelbon at the top of the list every month. In August, despite the team's catastrophic slide in the standings, Ortiz and Pabelbon continued to be the most consistent performers on the team, but they were both edged out for the top spot by Manny Ramirez.

Starters
It's hard to say which was worse in August, the stating rotation or the bullpen, but I'd have to give the nod for suckitude to the starters. At least the bullpen had Papelbon to provide some relief (so to speak), but the only decent pitcher in the rotation was David Wells, and by the end of the month he was packing his bags for San Diego. Kyle Snyder was the only other starter to post a positive WPA for the month.

Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon continued to rule the roost in August, despite blowing three saves. The second-best performance came from Keith Foulke. With Rudy Seánez gone halfway through the month, Julián Tavárez could have had the bottom of the standings to himself, were it not for the inspired lousiness of Mike Timlin, who chose an extraordinarily bad time to call out his teammates for their poor offensive performance.

Position Players
David Ortiz had to share his spot at the top of the list this month with Manny Ramirez, who beat him out by 0.005 WPA to take the top spot on the team for the month. Other notable performers were Mark Loretta and Mike Lowell. At the bottom of the heap, leading the rest of the offense by a wide margin, was the disastrous acquisition Javy López. López managed to put together a -1.748 WPA for the month, despite starting just 15 games. In August, he hit .200 with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. His WPA total of -1.748 was almost twice as bad as the previous worst monthly total, the -0.923 turned in in April by Alex González.

Red Sox Monthly WPA Totals, August 2006

Red Sox WPA through 9/1/06

2006-09-02T18:33:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 9/1/06
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 9/1/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 9/1/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/31/06

2006-09-02T18:03:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 8/31/06
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/31/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/31/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/30/06

2006-09-02T17:47:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/30/06
Red Sox 2, Athletics 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/30/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/30/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/29/06

2006-09-02T17:33:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/29/06
Red Sox 1, Athletics 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/29/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/28/06

2006-09-02T17:25:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/28/06
Red Sox 0, Athletics 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/28/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/28/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/27/06

2006-09-02T17:11:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/27/06
Red Sox 3, Mariners 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/27/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/27/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/26/06

2006-09-02T16:56:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/26/06
Red Sox 3, Mariners 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/26/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/26/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/25/06

2006-09-02T16:47:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/25/06
Red Sox 0, Mariners 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/25/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/25/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/24/06

2006-09-02T16:28:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 8/24/06
Red Sox 2, Angels 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/24/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/23/06

2006-09-02T16:00:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/23/06
Red Sox 5, Angels 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/23/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/23/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/22/06

2006-08-23T09:21:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/22/06
Red Sox 3, Angels 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/22/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/22/06

Red Sox Series WPA vs. Yankees

2006-08-21T20:51:00.000-04:00

In the wake of this catastrophic series, here's a summary showing WPA totals for each player over the course of the five-game series.

On the pitching side, things are pretty much as you would suspect. Schilling and Wells turned in the only decent starts, while the bullpen sucked with the exception of Papelbon on Sunday and Tavarez in Game 2 on Friday. Papelbon managed to turn in a positive WPA despite his blown save, on the strength of his gutsy eighth-innning appearance. He entered the game with a two-run lead and the bases loaded with nobody out, which is about the toughest situation you can put a closer into. The Red Sox Win Probability when he entered the game was down to 56.2%. By the time he escaped the inning, giving up just the sacrifice fly, the WP had increased to 85.7%, giving him +0.295 for the inning. Of course, he gave some of this back in the ninth by giving up the game-tying bloop to Jeter, but he still finished with a positive total for the night.

It's also interesting to note that among the Yankees' starting pitchers, only Lidle in Game 5 turned in a positive WPA. The starters were negative in all four other games, yet the Sox were still unable to capitalize.

Offensively, Manny and Mark Loretta were the only bright spots. Manny went 8-for-11 with nine walks, while Loretta had nine hits over the weekend, four of them doubles. Crisp and Javy Lopez hurt the team the most at the plate, going a combined 3-for-31 over the weekend.

For New York, of course, just about everyone had a good series, with the exception of the starters. Rivera, Proctor, and Farnsworth led the way in the bullpen, with Vallone turning in the only poor performance. At the plate, Abreu, Giambi, and Jeter did the most damage, while the only significant negative performances were turned in by Craig Wilson and Sal Fasano.

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Red Sox-Yankees Series WPA Summary

2006-08-21T20:27:00.000-04:00

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/21/06

2006-08-21T20:14:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/21/06
Yankees 2, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/21/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/20/06

2006-08-21T19:54:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/20/06
Yankees 8, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/20/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/19/06

2006-08-20T17:13:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/19/06
Yankees 13, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/19/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/18/06 (Game 2)

2006-08-20T16:11:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)
Yankees 14, Red Sox 11

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Red Sox WPA through 8/18/06 (Game 1)

2006-08-20T15:34:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)
Yankees 12, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Red Sox WPA through 8/16/06

2006-08-17T08:08:00.000-04:00

It was a relief last night to see the Red Sox bats deliver some timely hits, and to see the bullpen finally slam the door, helping deliver the first win over a team with a winning record since the 7-6 victory over the Angels on July 29th.

Wells finished with a negative WPA, but he pitched well enough to get the job done, delivering 6 and 2/3 respectable innings to even his record at 2-2. The big story at the plate was Coco Crisp, who went two-for-three with a walk and delivered the go-ahead runs in the bottom of the sixth with a two-run double. Crisp is now riding a seven-game hitting streak, hitting .345 over that stretch. Ortiz, meanwhile, broke out of his home run mini-drought with a two-run shot to break a 1-1 tie in the fifth. Ortiz reached base four times, going 1-1 with three walks (one semi-intentional, as he was given a free pass after Verlander got behind 3-1 in the third).

Jonathan Papelbon was as sharp as ever, with a 1-2-3 inning to earn his 32nd save on just six pitches, bringing sighs of relief across Red Sox Nation. Just as important, however, was Craig Hansen's performance, recording four outs while giving up just one hit. Hansen had been shaky, allowing nine runs (six earned) over his last seven starts, so it was nice to see a solid performance from him.

The bullpen is now nicely positioned going into Friday's doubleheader: the Tigers series saw one appearance each from Seanez, Breslow, Timlin, Hansen, and Papelbon. The Sox relax at home today while the Yankees wrap up their series with the Orioles with a day game today. A Baltimore win today would put the Sox just 1.5 games back. Let's hope it comes on a Kevin Millar homer in the eighteenth inning after a three-hour rain delay.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/16/06
Tigers 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/16/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/16/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/15/06

2006-08-16T15:12:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/15/06
Tigers 3, Red Sox 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/15/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/15/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/14/06

2006-08-16T13:56:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/14/06
Tigers 7, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/14/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/14/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/13/06

2006-08-14T17:59:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/13/06
Orioles 9, Red Sox 11

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/13/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/13/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/12/06

2006-08-13T14:44:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/12/06
Orioles 7, Red Sox 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/12/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/12/06