But then you look at what the Giants have gotten from their second basemen this season: .197/.245/.204 in 150 plate appearances entering today. With that in mind, Hudson is an obvious target. At worst, he continues to hit as poorly as he has been hitting — which, overall, isn’t as terrible as it might seem. Considering he’s a middle infielder in the least hitter-friendly park in baseball, playing in a year when run-scoring has been very low, he hasn’t been that bad. In fact, Fangraphs has him at exactly replacement level. Best case scenario: he does what he’d done the previous nine years. Nothing fancy; just good old average production. Of course, the probable scenario is something in between that; maybe a 1 WAR/600 PA pace. He’s lost a step or two on defense, and his bat isn’t what it used to be, but that’s within reasonable reach for him. The Giants wouldn’t be on the hook for any of his contract, either; at league-minimum, there’s really no reason for the Giants not to pursue Hudson and sub him into the roster spot that Charlie Culberson is currently occupying.

Culberson, in fact, was the only position player in today’s starting lineup that didn’t have a hit or a walk; put Hudson in there instead, and things don’t look all that bad:

Blanco RF, Crawford SS, Cabrera LF, Posey C, Pagan CF, Belt 1B, Burriss 3B, Hudson 2B, Pitcher.

Especially a month from now when Pablo Sandoval returns at third base.

Speaking of which, what a much needed shot in the arm today’s game turned out to be. Is Gregor Blanco not the ideal leadoff hitter? That combination of on-base skills and speed is simply perfect. Meanwhile, Brandon Crawford actually came through at the plate today; Buster Posey and Brandon Belt combined to reach base six times in this game; and Angel Pagan more than doubled his walk total for the month of May with today’s performance.

I mean, it’s been five years since Adam Wainwright struck out this few hitters in an outing, so this was a surprisingly strong showing from the Giants’ offense.

Not the best outing from Matt Cain either, but he’s now got a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 54/10 on the season.

Anyway, an excellent victory today for the Giants. They’re still .500; if they were in the NL East, they’d be tied for last place. At this point, expectations should be tempered. But they probably have enough to hang in there — and with the proper adjustments and tinkering, perhaps make a legitimate run at the playoffs.

If I was told before the season started that there would be a baseball team starting an infield of Hector Sanchez/Brett Pill/Charlie Culberson/Joaquin Arias/Brandon Crawford, I would have assumed that it was the Fresno Grizzlies. That’s the reasonable assumption. Each and every one of these guys could (or should) justifiably be in Triple-A right now.

That’s the sad state of the Giants right now:

• Desperate for offense, they rushed a 22-year old catcher so they could get this kind of production out of him: .267/.274/.350
• Joaquin Arias, who hit .232/.272/.353 in Triple-A last year, is now the starting third baseman
• Brandon Crawford has done nothing with his glove to redeem his expectedly terrible hitting
• Charlie Culberson, who couldn’t even manage a .300+ OBP in Double-A last season, will now presumably be seeing a lot of time at second base; for the record, I think his 7th-inning at-bat paints a pretty clear picture of what we’ll be seeing from him

And Brett Pill…well, I actually don’t mind Pill starting against left-handed pitchers all that much. So long as it isn’t a strict platoon with Brandon Belt. Plenty of southpaws (Joe Saunders included) are much more effective against left-handed hitters, and throwing Pill up there against a guy like Saunders isn’t such a big deal. Similarly, it’s not as though Belt should be sheltered against left-handed pitching. In fact, I think it’s crucial that he gets a steady diet of lefties. But the “Pill starting against left-handed pitchers” issue is merely masking all of the other glaring problems with this team.

In spite of it all, the Giants went 3-3. For all their obvious deficiencies, they’re .500 right now. I fear that’ll be the case all year long. Kept in contention by their pitching and few bright spots on offense, but held back from a postseason berth by the rest of the team. A natural ebb and flow of hope, created and destroyed. And with a second wild card spot, it won’t take much to reach that postseason berth. The Giants will act accordingly. That’s my biggest fear: that the Giants will jeopardize the long-term outlook of the team for the sake of mildly improving their odds this season.

Brett Pill is not a left fielder. Conor Gillaspie isn’t much of a third baseman, either. With this Giants roster, there are actually quite a few lineup variations that are capable of playing good defense. This was not one of them — not by a longshot.

And the offense. Oh my. Ted Lilly kept them to one run over six innings; the Dodgers’ bullpen kept them silent. Hector Sanchez struck out three times; the 1-2 of Pagan/Theriot put up a collective 0-for-9; and “lefty-masher” Brett Pill failed to reach base. In the first pitch of his first at-bat returning from the DL, Aubrey Huff promptly flied out to center. And yet, the Giants still managed to get enough runners on base to strand ten of ‘em. The Giants haven’t hit a home run in 60 innings.

As of now, the Giants have scored 109 runs; they’ve allowed 114 runs. And they still have to get through the next six weeks without Pablo Sandoval. Just an incredibly frustrating loss.

In the past couple seasons, Mota has emerged as a useful innings-eater in the Giants’ bullpen. In fact, last season he had a couple outings of 4+ innings — something he had never done before. Ultimately, his tenure with the Giants has been nothing short of mediocre (90 ERA+ across 145 innings), but there’s still value in that. That said, it’s not as though this will be much of a roadblock for the Giants this season.

UPDATE: According to ESPN, Mota’s agent said that the Clenbuterol was in children’s cough medicine that Mota had taken.

Now here’s Matt Cain‘s graph. Again, ignore that last data point if you want, but the general point is clear: even as Cain has gotten older, he’s kept on goin’. He’s now 27 years old, and he’s already passed the point where he should’ve began his decline. Cain’s track record speaks for itself, but one of the main things that stands out to me is that he hasn’t started to drop off yet; in fact, one could argue that he’s improved. After today’s performance, his K/9 is at a career high, his BB/9 is at a career low, and his ERA is at a career low. Small samples be damned, his ability to stand the test of time has been wonderful, and it’s not something to take for granted. While Tim Lincecum’s future (both as a Giant and in general) is up in the air at this point, Cain is here for the long haul. After Madison Bumgarner‘s excellent start yesterday, there was a lot of talk about how Bumgarner had claimed the title of “most reliable Giants starter” or “best Giants starter so far.” Whatever it was, I think Cain stated his case pretty clearly today.

Cain didn’t get the win though, of course. But the offense did just enough to give the Giants the series victory. A couple players in particular stood out to me with their hitting today, and obviously they’re the two guys I can’t shut up about: Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera.

Pagan extended his hitting streak to 20 games, though he’s been getting by with a lot of .250/.250/.250 performances (meaningless 1-for4s). Today wasn’t one of those, as Pagan had two hits — one of them a well-struck double down the first base line — and got the Giants a very important run in the first inning by beating out a double play. Oh yeah, and he stole a base. His OBP is still in sub-.300 territory, but whatever. Fueled by an early power surge, he’s been above-average hitter thus far (105 wRC+). He dug himself a sizable hole at the beginning of the year with that first-week slump, but he’s already worked his way out of it and then some.

As for Melky, he put up a 1-for-5 — but that was only because he was robbed of a double in the tenth inning. Both of his hits — the actual one and the would-be one — were to the opposite field, too. In case you haven’t noticed, he’s pretty good at this opposite-field hitting business: since the start of 2011, he has 61 opposite-field hits.

And unlike Pagan, he’s been excellent with the glove: today’s notable was that 11th inning double play — he robbed Jonathan Lucroy of a bloop single then proceeded to double up Corey Hart at first base.

Pagan, meanwhile, continues to disappoint with his defense. I’m not sure if an average centerfielder catches Travis Ishikawa‘s ninth inning game-tying double. But I’m certain of the fact that Pagan is capable of getting to that ball if he takes a better route, and I also have no doubt that Andres Torres would have made that catch.

Entering the season, I felt the Giants had a top-notch defense; so far, that hasn’t been the case at all. Melky has been better than expected, and Emmanuel Burriss has shown a bit more range than I thought he had. But other than that, they’ve been utterly disappointing. Especially with the easy stuff — the routine plays. Bobbling grounders, failing to communicate in the outfield, et al. That’s exactly why I’m not too worried about this, though. I don’t think the Giants are fundamentally flawed on defense — it’s not as though they’re not getting to the ball in the first place, for example; they’re just making a few (costly) mistakes here and there. In other words, I don’t expect this to be a lingering issue.

Anyway, the Giants came away with the W, and sloppy as they were at times, a win is a win. Considering their next stop is LA, for the 18-10 Dodgers, it’s a good thing they were able to rebound and grab a couple wins to end this homestand.

All in all, he turned in yet another stellar performance on the mound, allowing one run through seven innings of work, as he improved to a 2.31 ERA (3.61 FIP) on the season and carried the Giants to a 5-2 victory. In four of Bumgarner’s six starts this season, he’s gone 7+ innings without allowing more than one run.

Obligatory reminder: he’s 22 years old. His first five starts alone put his 2012 season among the best by a 22-year-old Giants starter. Is there any question he can work his way up to #1 on that list by season’s end?

• Five runs…feels like it’s been a while, eh? It has. Last time they scored five runs in a game was back in Cincinnati, nine days ago.
• Hector Sanchez, who entered this game hitting .233/.244/.302, finally got things going with a pair of doubles (one of which nearly went over the centerfield wall for a homer). These were his second and third extra-base hits on the season, respectively, and needless to say, it’s great to see a game like this out of Hector.
• Melky Cabrera had a quality game as well, with a couple hits (including a triple) and some very good glovework in right field. He’s now put together four consecutive multi-hit games, which has brought him up to a .364 wOBA this season. At this point, it seems pretty clear that I was wrong about Cabrera — something I’m very happy to say.
• Angel Pagan has now hit safely in 19 consecutive games; however, he’s also now gone 16 consecutive games without a walk. I do wonder if he’s slightly altered his approach, becoming more hacktastic for the sake of preserving his hitting streak. It’s not likely, but it’s worth throwing out there. And while we’re on the subject of walks — the Giants had another walk-less game today, keeping their season total at 65. That’s third-worst in the National League.

• The Giants scored five runs this series. They managed to strand 23 baserunners in this three-game set. They drew a grand total of five walks. As promising — by which I mean “potentially acceptable” — as the Giants’ offense looked at the beginning of the season, they’ve fallen back to earth. Over their last few sets (Reds, Padres, Marlins), they’ve averaged 2.7 runs scored per game. Yuck.
• After collecting a couple hits in back-to-back games, I have to think the whole Brandon Belt fiasco is actually nearing its end. He’s raised his overall line to .292/.370/.396 (120 wRC+), and given that the Giants are starved for run production right now, I think Belt has finally reached the point where he’ll be given regular playing time. At least, I hope so. What a relief that would be.
• With today’s 0-for-2, Brandon Crawford‘s numbers have dropped to .208/.228/.338. That’s a 43 wRC+. At least his glove is…oh, six errors on the year already? I’ve been pretty back-and-forth on the issue of Brandon Crawford. It took a while, but I eventually warmed up to the idea of him as starting shortstop. I’m not hopping off the bandwagon yet, but I’m close. He’s gotten off to a miserable start this season.
• This was Anibal Sanchez‘s fourth career start against the Giants. In 31 innings, he’s now allowed four runs. 24 strikeouts, five walks.
• This is only the second time the Giants have been swept at home in the last year. The last time? Another ugly series against the Marlins.
• We’re a few days into May, which means there’s a lot of baseball left. This Sandoval injury is by no means a nail in the coffin for the Giants. But things are looking pretty bad at this point. They’re already five games back in the NL West, and that alone feels like a lot of ground to make up (of course, there are also a couple wild card spots up for grabs). They’ll need to somehow tread water until Sandoval’s return; with near-automatic outs slotted in at third base, shortstop, and second base, that’s an unenviable task. These next few weeks could very well be disastrous. One can only hope that today was the low point of 2012.
• With today’s performance, Ryan Vogelsong brought his ERA/FIP down to 3.42/3.43 respectively. Through four starts, he’s quietly remained great at the back end of the Giants’ rotation, which was far from a sure thing heading into this season. At least there’s that.

That said, sometimes a pitcher does “make his own luck” and Zito’s success this April has been founded not only on good breaks, but on a conscious change in approach. I believe this change has helped him cut his walk rate in half, while generating much less hard contact. His line drive rate currently sits at 13.8%, compared to 19.8% for his career, and over 21% since he became a Giant.

This new approach, I believe, is built upon three major adjustments. First, he has learned (again) to trust his slider. (Grant Brisbee discussed this is some detail last week.) Second, he is throwing a cut fastball. And, finally, thanks in part to these new additions, he is varying his pitch selection from start to start, based upon matchups and upon the quality of his various pitches on any given night.

Backing up this impression with statistics has proven somewhat difficult, because Zito’s new repertoire has thus far been a challenge for pitch-charters. Distinguishing the pitches in Zito’s arsenal can be very difficult because he does not have a talent for, how shall we say it, changing velocities. Zito’s changeup, when he overthrows it, looks a little like a flat slider. His two-seam fastball, his slider, and his new cutter all have overlapping ranges of both velocity and movement. His mistake pitches, especially, are hard to classify, which might make some of his pitch data unreliable, particularly in small samples.

However, no matter whose data you use (or if you watch the games), it is clear that Zito has made changes, it’s just difficult to tell exactly what they are. The following chart show three sources of pitch type data:

As you can see, there is little consensus as to what is a cutter and what is a slider. In fact, as of last week, when I began trying this analysis, Brooks Baseball was listing the cutter among Zito’s pitches. They have since given that up.

With the above caveats in mind, I want to nevertheless offer some analysis which might be interesting to consider as we view tonight’s start against the Marlins.

According to the PitchFX linear weights, the slider has been Zito’s most effective pitch since 2009. However, one could question the accuracy of that data, because prior to this season Zito never leaned too heavily on the pitch. With infrequent use, he didn’t risk overexposing it as much as, say, his curve. However, this season, the slider has become Zito’s bread and butter.

Regardless of whose data you believe, it’s evident he’s throwing the slider far more often than he has in recent years. For the first time since he became a Giant, Zito has a pitch that he can throw for strikes which doesn’t look like batting practice. Zito throws the slider with better command and control than either his fastball, curve, or change-up. According to Brooks Baseball, 62% of the time he puts it in the zone or in play.

What’s great about Zito’s slider is not quality, but consistency. Although he uses the slider with regularity in every start, it is never his most commonly used pitch. In Zito’s best starts, he doesn’t need it all the much. When he shutout Colorado in his first start, he only threw sliders about 14% of the time, as he pounded the Rockies with the sinking two-seamer. However, unlike that pitch, which Zito struggles to command from game to game, the slider shows up every night, thus giving Barry a pitch he can count on when he’s behind in the count, while he figures out what else in working on any given day.

Unlike the slider, Zito’s cutter is a brand new pitch, developed this offseason. When it’s working, the cutter breaks much like the slider, but has fastball velocity, and comes from the same release point as both pitches. The cutter has thus breathed new life into Zito’s mediocre fastball, both by making it less necessary for him to throw it, and making it’s “straightness” surprising when he does. Zito’s called strike percentage has gone way up on both his fastball and his sinker as a result. I believe this improvement stems directly from opponents getting caught expecting a cutter or a slider to move down, away, and off the plate against lefties, and instead standing and staring at something right over the plate.

As important as what Zito is throwing (cutters and sliders), is what he isn’t throwing (four-seamers and curveballs). PitchFX has Zito throwing the four-seamer only 11% of the time. His career rate is 44%. As discussed above, the straight fastball has been more or less totally replaced by cutters and sinkers.

The curveball has not been replaced, but it has been rejuvenated. What happened during Zito’s Giants tenure, prior to this season, was that as his faith in his fastball decreased, he became more and more reliant on his Bugs Bunny curveball. He’s thrown it more than 20% of the time since becoming a Giant. As hitters got more looks at it and Zito started using it in more predictable patterns, it was less effective.

That’s changed this season. Zito throws the curve less (~15%) and thus it is again generating whiffs and weak contact. Consider some anecdotal evidence from last week’s start in Cincinnati:

Zito got off to a rough start, giving up a single and two walks in the first inning. With two outs and two on, Zito faced Jay Bruce. He got him to strikeout swinging on a 73 MPH curveball down and away. It was only the second time Barry had thrown his curve during the 25-pitch opening frame.

Zito ended up throwing only 15 curves in the game, seven of them to Jay Bruce, who went 0-for-3 and twice struck out to end an inning with men on base. He reserved the curve for situations in which it would be most effective and did not condition the Reds (save, perhaps, Bruce) to waiting back on it. Contrast his most recent start (6% FB, 14% CB) with Zito’s last trip to Cincinnati, during which he relied almost exclusively on fastballs (46%) and curves (20%), one of which Jay Bruce pounded into the left-field bleachers, driving home three of the five earned runs Zito yielded in five innings.

The existence of the slider and the cutter allow Zito to keep the curve in reserve, for when he needs it most. It has also allowed him to be less reliant on his sinker, which is frequently his best pitch, but is also unreliable on a game to game basis. In his four starts this season, according to PitchFX data, he has thrown the sinker as much as 30% of the time and as little as 10% of the time. Somewhat similarly, he’s thrown the changeup as much as 20% and as little as 10%. In four starts, he has never used an even remotely similar pitch distribution, as shown by the following table:

Pagan had a .358 wOBA in 2009. That fell to .341 the next season, and dropped another 28 points to .313 last season. Then he stumbled out of the gate, hitting .171/.203/.303 in Spring, and failed to redeem himself in the first week of the regular season (.111/.172/.185). In spite of all the Spring Training stat caveats that are spouted ad nauseam throughout March, and the small-sample-size caveats that follow in April, it was easy to sour on Pagan quickly.

After watching a player for several weeks, their performance inevitably factors into our ever-changing perception of how good (or bad) that player is. We’re all human, after all.

And in this case, it perhaps didn’t seem like a player whose struggles were a product of random variation, because it was a continuation of a trend that had been going on for a few years. The narrative wrote itself: Pagan had put up progressively worse numbers since 2009, and 2012 was to be the next step in this decline phase.

Then Pagan started to hit. And eighteen games into the season, his overall numbers are right about where we’d expect them to be (give a few walks, take a few total bases). If he keeps this up (by which I mean his overall numbers) — which seems probable, he’ll be everything the Giants need him to be: a solid if unspectacular everyday centerfielder. Just another reminder that patience is a virtue.