Sports Chutney by Dan Rowinski

Bruins v. Capitals Oct. 19 preview: Storify

2010-10-19T12:34:00.002-04:00

Capitals Convention 2010: Slideshow

2010-10-04T13:23:00.000-04:00

Well, even though I thought this was a good slideshow on the Capitals Convention 2010, I cannot sell everything. Be it money, politics or the Redskins, this is now great stuff for Sports Chutney. Enjoy.

Brett Favre's fantasy: More football

2010-08-19T23:35:00.000-04:00

Brett is back.

A little less drama than usual, but the Favre is back in his proper place in the world – playing football somewhere in the American Midwest.

As a fantasy football owner the question becomes – how much do you really care?

Outside of Favre fan boys (who will take ye olde gunslinger with their first pick regardless and yes, these people do exist) it takes more of a discerning eye to quantify the value of Favre this year. It is his 20^th NFL season. In the “Not For Long” league, that is an eternity, especially at one of the skill positions. How is Favre holding up? Is that ankle going to be a significant problem? Can he just jump into action a month after the start of training camp and pick up where he left off?

These are valid questions. The short answers are that Favre’s arm will probably be fine, the rest of his body has held up well through the years and he is perhaps the toughest player ever to drop under center (in reference to his ankle). Twenty years gives Favre somewhat of a right to be given the benefit of the doubt, from fans, coaches, teammates and fantasy owners alike.

Senility set in with Favre long ago. Reference various retirements for proof. More importantly though, reference his actual performance through the years. Yes, last year he was remarkable. Perhaps even MVP worthy remarkable if it was not for the Era of Manning in the NFL. Yet, can you really expect more of the same from Favre this year? Look at last year’s numbers against his career averages.

2009 (Career)

Completion percentage – 68.4 (62.0)

Yards – 4202 (3648)

Touchdowns 33 (26)

Interceptions 7 (16)

Rating – 107.2 (86.6)

Favre was 201 yards off his career high, set in 1995 (with his second best mark at 4212 in 1998). He threw for more than 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2004. He had a career-low in interceptions with his previous low of 13 in both 1995 and 1996. Remember, this is the man who owns the all-time NFL mark in both touchdowns AND interceptions.

So, the question to ask yourself is: can Favre do it again?

Short answer?

No.

Last year was a special year for Favre. It was his “Stick It To The Packers” year along with a year that his franchise has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations that came just short in overtime of the NFC Championship game. Favre was also in camp earlier last year, though that should not be as big a problem as some will make it. This year Favre seems almost like it is an also-ran type of thing. He wanted to make sure he was healthy, he wanted to miss most of training camp (a guess but after 20 years of getting beaten by large men in the sweltering summer heat, would you want to show up if you did not really have to?), he wanted his annual 15 minutes of Summer Favre Mania.

The biggest thing that I notice this year is just the way Favre seems to be approaching it. Last year it was “I am thrilled to be a Viking and we are going to go out and win a god damn Super Bowl!” This year he is saying “Well, shucks, I just owed it to Minnesota to come back.” You know, unfinished business and all.

Favre is a guy who plays with fire and the brighter the better. It is almost like Terrell Owens in a roundabout way. When Owens burned his bridge with one team, he would go to the next and be a (relatively) model citizen and productive player. Then the next year he was back in his high chair screaming at whoever would listen about the indignities he had been served.

Look at Favre’s stats for the last couple of years. The last year in Green Bay was one of his best, slightly below what he did in Minnesota in 2009 (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 4155 yards, 66.5 completion percentage, 95.7 quarterback rating). For all anyone really knew, that was going to be his last year in the NFL and he had something to prove with Aaron Rodgers being the quarterback the team seemed to favor going forward (in retrospect, with good reason).

The next year, things never really clicked with Favre in New York. It did not seem like his first choice of destinations, the team was mediocre and New York is definitely not Green Bay (or Mississippi). Subsequently Favre’s numbers slipped (22 touchdowns, league-leading 22 interceptions, 3472 yards, 65.7 completion percentage, 81 quarterback rating).

No fire. No Favre.

The thing to look for in Favre this time around in Minnesota is his decision making. Last year Favre was motivated last year to take care of the ball. Hence his highest career completion percentage and his lowest ever interception total. Yet, looking back on Favre’s trends, he is been a bit of a yo-yo. His penultimate year in Green Bay he threw 18 touchdowns and 18 interceptions (much like that 22/22 split for the Jets) with a mediocre team. Without that chip on his shoulder, Favre becomes undisciplined and unfocused and is a middling to bad quarterback.

That probably will not be entirely the case this time around with the Vikings. He still has a good team around him and perhaps a bit of a chip after yet-another playoff ending interception and this time it could possibly be the real end to his career. The last shot at glory. Favre probably will not be as good as last year but he will still be decent.

Where does that put him on your draft board? Think top-10 quarterback in the draft. Perhaps eighth or ninth. That would put him in the 65 to 80 pick range, depending on the priorities of your league. Anything above that and you have gone senile along with your quarterback. Anything below and he will probably be gone.

This post can also be found at rotoinfo.com

Also, if you are not a fan of the title, it is alright. It is a colleague's suggestion for an SEO optimized version thereof. Kind of clever actually. I hope.

Bruins press release in NHL investigation of Marc Savard's contract

2010-08-10T15:52:00.000-04:00

BRUINS STATEMENT REGARDING NHL’S INVESTIGATION OF MARC SAVARD’S CONTRACT
EXTENSION

BOSTON, MA - Boston Bruins General Manager Peter Chiarelli issued the
following statement today regarding the NHL’s investigation of the
seven-year contract extension signed by Marc Savard on December 1, 2009:

“We are cooperating fully with the League in its investigation of the
Marc Savard contract extension. The League informed us upon their
registration of the contract on December 1, 2009 that they would be
investigating the circumstances surrounding this contract. From that
point on, they commenced their investigation and it has been ongoing
since then. On August 4th, I met with two League appointed lawyers as
part of the investigation. We will continue to cooperate with the
League in any future investigative proceedings if necessary and we will
have no further comment on the matter at this time.”

Fantasy Baseball -- Impact of the trading deadline on pitchers

2010-08-09T11:24:00.000-04:00

What does the MLB trade season mean to you?

It is the part of the baseball season when good players go from the dredges of the league to contenders. Where top-tier prospects get swapped and get their chance at big league jobs with bad clubs and minor moves make all the difference when it comes for a chance at October glory.

It is also one of the last opportunities for fantasy owners to make roster changes for the final push at the coveted league title.

Owners who have players like Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt are satisfied that the marquee pitchers on their rosters have moved on to greener pastures. When it comes to fantasy, the hope is that what real-life general managers did in July (and into the waiver season of August) translates into a couple extra wins, strikeouts, runs or home runs for fantasy owners.

That is the perception at least.

It does not always work out like that though. Lee is obviously worth more to the Rangers (and to fantasy owners) than he was for the Mariners. Through 13 starts in Seattle this season, Lee was a 3.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) pitcher, posting and 8-3 record with a 2.34 ERA through 103.2 innings. The Mariners are dead last in the majors this year in runs scored so it would figure to benefit Lee to move over to a Texas team that historically been known for its pop and sits at sixth in the league in the scoring department.

In theory.

So it is with baseball. What seems like a no-brainer outcome – better team, better offense, more wins – is no sure thing. In Lee’s 13 starts with the Mariners the team scored a respectable 4.8 runs per game for him (slightly above the league average of 4.7). The Rangers in six starts thus far?

A tick above 2.4.

That leaves Lee at 2-2 early in his Texas career. His ERA is higher that it was in Seattle at 2.63 while his home run rate has raised from .4 per nine innings to .7 and his strikeouts per nine has decreased from 7.7 to 6.5 (his career rate is 6.8).

This will even out, to a certain extent. So far Lee’s WAR in Texas is 1.7, a little more than half of what he had in Seattle in about half as many games. Yet, The Ball Park at Arlington (or whatever it is being called these days) has never been a friendly place when it comes to pitchers and home runs, so Lee’s ERA is probably not going to drop back down the 2.00 level, no matter how much Nolan Ryan or Chuck Greenberg compel him or how many carrots are promised in his next contract. Texas is just not friendly to pitchers. Of the nine home runs that Lee has given up this year, four have come with Texas, all at home (with three coming against Baltimore in his first start in a Rangers uniform).

Lee has perhaps 10 starts left with the Rangers this year. It is a fair assumption that Texas will start scoring more than 2.4 runs per each of his starts but it is not a foregone conclusion. If he wins eight of those starts, it will be a minor coup.

So, what is the fantasy conclusion for Lee now that he is in a Ranger uniform? Trade him now. Trade him to a pitching-needy team that is willing to pay for the perceived promise of those eight wins and make them overpay for a potential Cy Young winner. If you cannot extort a fair sum from your opponent you can keep him on the roster and know that he will not be hurting you down the stretch.

Let’s take a look at some of the early returns of big name pitchers changing teams.

Haren

With Arizona – 21 starts, 141 innings, 7 wins, 8 losses, 4.60 ERA, 1.348 WHIP, 9 K/9

With Los Angeles – 3 starts, 20 innings, 0 wins, 2 losses, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.2 K/9

Analysis – If you are in a keeper league, you should be very happy that Haren is out of the Arizona desert and into the California one. Yet, the Angels this year are not exactly a “good” team and Haren moves to the tougher league. So far his peripheral numbers look a little better than with the Diamondbacks but all you can really count on Haren for is strikeouts. Fantasy analysis? Keep him stashed away at the bottom of your rotation and let him help you in his one reliable category.

Oswalt

With Houston – 20 starts, 129 innings, 6 wins, 12 losses, 3.42 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 8.4 K/9

With Philadelphia – 2 starts, 12.1 innings, 0 wins, 1 loss, 4.38 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Analysis – Oswalt was motivated towards the end of his Astros career and his 8.4 K/9 (over a 7.4 mark through his career) was evidence of that. As such it appears that he is going through a bit of a “dead-arm” period right now with the Phillies and his numbers has suffered the short-terms effects of that correspondingly. Good for keeper leagues but trade him now if you can.

Matt Capps –

With Washington – 47 appearances, 46 innings, 3 wins, 3 losses, 26 saves, 2.64 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 7.4 K/9

With Minnesota – 5 appearances, 5 innings, 1 win, 0 losses, 2 saves, 1.80 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 14.4 K/9

Analysis – There is no reason to think that Capps cannot get it done in the Twin Cities the way he was getting it done with the slightly-less-than-awful-than-usual Nationals. He is a fair candidate to make an attempt to trade for as Minnesota battles for its playoff life.

Dan Rowinski is a Fantasy Baseball Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at danrowinski@rotoinfo.com. You can follow him on Twitter at Dan_Rowinski.

Fantasy Baseball: Yunel Escobar -- Wherever you go, there you are

2010-07-21T11:02:00.000-04:00

Yunel Escobar rounds third after grand slam
homerun July 18 against Baltimore. Image from
Toronto Sun (via Reuters).

I am always a little skeptical when pundits and scouts say that all a struggling player needs is “a change of scenery.” Yet, with limited access to actual major league clubhouses, there is little insight I can give into how a certain player is fairing on the field because of the situation around him.

Sometimes a change of scenery is really what is needed to offer a boost of moral and productivity. Think about it: Have you ever left a job just to go somewhere else to do the same exact job and been much happier for it?

My guess is that you probably have and, at least initially, you thought that the move was the best possible thing that you could have done for yourself. Yet, one of the simplest and oldest clichés applies to the change of scenery notion of productivity.

Wherever you go, there you are.

A mere hop from one spot on the map to another is not going to change the fundamental characteristics of your personality. Yes, it may offer a temporary blip of energy and purpose, but after a while you find that you are doing the exact same things that you did not like (or others did not like about you) in the place that you left. Without fundamental character growth and maturity, a will to engage life in a professional manner, you are bound to regress back to the level of productivity that had become your statistical norm. If being complacent or angry or easy-going is in your nature, a brand new location is not going to fundamentally change that characteristic.

Given that this is a fantasy baseball article and the MLB trade deadline is ten days away, you may see what I am getting at here.

I am speaking specifically of Blue Jays’ shortstop Yunel Escobar, who was traded from the Braves to Toronto for Alex Gonzalez on July 14. I will circle back to Escobar shortly.

Think about some of the prominent trades in the last couple of years. The biggest and most pertinent name in this discussion would have to be pitcher Cliff Lee, currently with the Rangers after having been shipped from Cleveland to Philadelphia to Seattle and finally to Texas since last year’s trade deadline. Lee, regarded as one of the most professional players in baseball, has not changed a bit in the maelstrom of moves since leaving the Indians. In that period he has pitched 201.1 innings with an absurd 10.05 strikeout to walk ratio (171/17) with a 15-8 record and nine complete games. In going from Seattle to Austin earlier this month he just kept on chugging along, going nine innings in both of his first two starts with his new team. Clearly this is not a player affected by environment.

Now let’s go back and look at the trade that sent Manny Ramirez from Boston to Los Angeles in 2008. Ramirez, who was regressing due to age despite still being a very productive hitter, found new life down the stretch for the Dodgers hitting .396/.489/.743 for a ridiculous 1.232 OPS with 17 homeruns and 53 RBI in 229 plate appearances. His line before leaving the Red Sox that year was .299/.398/.529, an OPS of .926 with 20 homeruns and 68 RBI. That is a rather large statistical jump as he produced nearly as many homeruns and RBI with the Dodgers as he did with the Red Sox in nearly half the plate appearances. His OPS+ split between the two was 136 in Boston to 221 in Los Angeles (with 100 being considered average on a percentage scale).

Since that torrid stretch, Ramirez has regressed back to his career means. Take into account the alleged lack of performance enhancing drugs and his age he has not really changed as a hitter. His 155 OPS+ in 2009 and his 152 mark in so far in 2010 (in limited playing time due to suspension and an increasing injury rate) are right in line with his career OPS+ of 155.

Granted, there was no way that Ramirez could have sustained his 2008 performance with the Dodgers but it does go to show the temporary benefits of change of scenery can do for a player. In the end though, Manny is still Manny, no matter where he is playing.

Now for Escobar. This is a talented shortstop who, at the age of 27, should be approaching his prime production period of his career. His career slash line of .293/.370/.408 is respectable if a little light on the slugging side (.414 is about league average slugging) and he has a career 107 OPS+ over 450 games and 1867 plate appearances. That makes him seven percent better than a league average shortstop. His 2009 breakout, which was to be expected of a player entering his third year in The Show, of .299/.377/.436 is perhaps a touch higher than his expected overall performance over the course of his career but does offer a decent guideline into what type of player he can be – a slightly better than league-average middle infielder with a propensity for streakiness depending on his mood.

The Braves could not wait to get Escobar out of Atlanta and gave him up for a shortstop with a career OPS+ of 81 (which is, oddly enough, Escobar’s 2010 OPS+) and a couple middling prospects. For a business-like team trying to win in manager Bobby Cox’s last season, his lack of professionalism and poor fielding as a consequence were a poison on the field and in the clubhouse.

It should then come as no surprise that Escobar has been on fire in his first couple of games in Toronto going 8 for 17 with four runs, two homeruns and seven RBI. Contrast that to his run production in Atlanta (28 runs, zero homeruns and 19 RBI in 301 plate appearances) and it is clear that the change of location has lit a temporary fire under Escobar.

Before Blue Jays fans and fantasy owners get too excited though, remember that this cannot last. Escobar is at an age where he is not a likely candidate for any remarkable statistical breakout and eventually he will be what he has been all along . . . decent but not outstanding.

Ultimately it will come down to Yunel being Yunel, no matter what city he plays in.

Dan Rowinski is a Fantasy Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at danrowinski@rotoinfo.com. You can follow him on Twitter at Dan_Rowinski.

Twitter -- @EarlyBird and the endless possibilities

2010-07-07T10:30:00.000-04:00

I have been wondering how Twitter was going to make money.

I love the idea of Twitter, if not alway in practice. I tweet, a lot, and try to be more than an automaton linking my articles and breaking the occasional bit of news. As someone from the company said recently, Twitter is a "information media" platform as opposed to a "social media" platform and in that regard I believe it to be true.

Twitter has come to replace a lot of folks RSS readers and it is great if you are in the news junkie business and have an affinity to scroll. This is what makes Twitter important to me and as such I have been hoping that they would eventually acquire a business model to stay at the top of the microblogging hierarchy. Hey, I have brand loyalty sometimes too!

Yet, I have not been sure how they were going to do this. My first thoughts that Twitter, in and of itself, does not have a lot of business potential. Advertising is tricky because a vast portion of the network operate from third party clients (I am a TweetDeck and UberTwitter for my Mac and Blackberry, respectively), hence "Promoted Tweets" on trending topics does not seem like it could have scale. Placing ads within peoples timelines could work to penetrate that third party system (or, as Twitter has been doing, consolidate the third party functions to vertical integration) but that may cause a user backlash that their trusted company and platform was, more or less, spamming them.

The thing that I saw that Twitter really has as blue chip asset is the most important thing when it comes to the interwebs -- data. The Twitter data "Fire Hose" is impressive and growing. That is why it did not surprise me that the first revenue model that Twitter employed was to sell access to the data stream to Bing and Google along with other various businesses. The business-to-business model allows Twitter a marginal economic core to sustain it while figuring out other business models that will allow it to grow in to a tech powerhouse, climbing the ranks from "successful startup" up the latter to Facebook or even Google status (though I do not envision Twitter to ever be as big as Google).

Yesterday, Twitter unveiled the @EarlyBird program. Essentially, @EarlyBird is a akin to Groupon or Woot -- partnered deals with companies to distribute advertiser deals.

From Tech Crunch:

Looks like Twitter is about to start offering users exclusive, time-bound deals, events and sneak peeks, for which it has partnered with a number of (yet unnamed) advertising partners.

Those advertisers will distribute offers via the @EarlyBird account, and they get to determine the terms of the offer, including availability, amount, and pricing. And you? You get to opt in to them.

If you want to get access to said exclusive deals, you need to of course follow the @EarlyBird account, although you may also see offers if someone you follow retweets a tweet from that account. Yes, that means exclusive deals are bound to get viral pretty quickly, which will be interesting to observe given that many of the offers distributed via the account will be time-sensitive of nature (otherwise it wouldn’t be called Early Bird, of course).

I was reading this last night and, all of a sudden, everything became clear . . .

Twitter can do everything.

Name me a business model on the web. Search? Twitter has its own impressive search already and it is not a stretch to jump from Promoted Tweets on trending topics to promoted tweets on search terms integrated into the feed or on the page. Groupon, deals and partnerships? @EarlyBird has the early lead on that. Location aware partnerships, a la FourSquare, with local businesses and other media properties? Does not seem that far away as Twitter already does location. It could augment part of the service in the mobile sector to have the option to always know where a tweeter is and send promoted tweets from nearby businesses. Auctions, eBay style? Tweets seem a ready made way to operate an online auction with the proper supervision.

Twitter probably cannot (and should not) jump into straight ecommerce. Amazon and company have that taken care of. But, partnering through @EarlyBird gives them a portion of that revenue stream.

Twitter's rise and relative ubiquity compared with FourSquare and Groupon make it the perfect platform to steal the thunder from those business models as they attempt to grow.

The only problem is that Twitter is going to need to grow up and in a hurry. The scalability issues they have been dealing with (and painfully highlighted by the World Cup) cannot exist if Twitter is going to make lasting partnerships on the advertorial and marketing level. Businesses are going to want the money they spend on these various models to payoff at times of highest traffic. The problem with Twitter right now is that times of highest traffic cause the system to fail. If they can work that out in the near future, Twitter can take off as the model Web 2.0 company heading into the next decade.

A year ago I was baffled as to how Twitter could possibly sustain itself. Now, the possibilities seem endless.

Fantasy Football -- Running Back Tandems

2010-07-07T08:43:00.000-04:00

Every year you anxiously await to see if you land the first overall pick in your fantasy football draft in hopes to grab the stud running back who will lead you to the promised land.

For most of you, that is not going to happen.

The No. 1 pick, naturally. There are draft various draft strategies to employ that can still lead you team to fantasy football glory even if you missed out on the Adrian Peterson Sweepstakes.

In years of playing fantasy football, I do not think I have ever received the first pick. Multiple leagues a year and never once have I had that shining moment. That does not mean I have not won my fair share of leagues. It just takes a little practice.

When it comes to running backs, if you miss out on Peterson or Chris Johnson (this year’s consensus first overall pick), the drop off is significant. Yes, Maurice Jone-Drew, Stephen Jackson and Ray Rice are all fine backs but after the first couple of picks there are better first round options than a running back. That is why I like to wait if I cannot get in on the big names and go tandem style for maximum efficiency.

That means taking two running backs, from the same team in relatively short order. Some fantasy owners like to make it a sandwich. For instance, they will draft a team’s top running back, get a second-tier guy early and then come back for the backup. This method can work and does help your team avoid the nasty pitfall of production that comes about when your primary and backup running backs have their bye week (which always seems to come at the most inopportune time, doesn’t it?)

Yet there are some tandems that you will want to take rapidly to keep them together as they often work in cohort as opposed to a feature back and the guy that spells him. Drafting this way can also allow you to look for other production at other positions as these players will be on the board in later rounds at good value. So, here are half a dozen running back tandems to keep an eye on heading into your draft.

Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – Miami Dolphins

The Wild Cat. Got to love it. The Dolphins have resurrected their once-wretched offense in recent years by taking two talented though slightly flawed backs and turning them into the feature of an attack that can be confounding to opposing defenses (just ask the New England Patriots). Brown has always been a bit of an enigma and do not be fooled this year into drafting too high. He platoons heavily with Williams and is injured more often than you would probably like but he holds his end of the bargain pretty well when on the field. He broke his foot after nine games in 2009 so that is something to watch and he has never had more than 1,008 yards in a year but if he is good for between 800 to 1,000 yards and six or seven touchdowns, trust that the Dolphins will find a way to make the rest of the production up with Williams.

Williams, The NFL King of Cosmic Cleansing (or whatever he is doing these days) is still viable at age 33. He definitely got tired towards the end of the year in 2009 when Brown went down but if their stats do not look pretty similar (granting health, of course) by the end of the year, I would be surprised.

Bye Week -- 5

Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush – New Orleans Saints

Thunder and Lightning. Vanilla and Chocolate. Sting like a bee, light as a butterfly. OK, so now the cliché superlatives are out of the way, Thomas and Bush are a great tandem of complimentary backs as you will find in the league. Thomas is a top-20 back, probably just barely, and he will have days where you pinch yourself and say “did he just win this week single-handedly for me?” Because he might. Then again, he might not. He is consistent enough to start on a weekly basis but head coach Sean Payton won a Super Bowl last year with an offense that was so dynamic you were not sure what it was going to do play-to-play, let alone week-to-week.

That is where keeping Bush around comes in. Between the two there will be plenty of production to go around for one of the leagues best offenses. Bush is almost the type of player who you would like to start him at wide receiver as opposed to running back and match somebody else with Thomas but alas, that is not how the game works. Bush is also a guy you can sleep on for a couple rounds if you know that you are going to pair him with Thomas since his numbers the last couple of years has not matched his hype.

Bye Week -- 10

C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson – Buffalo Bills

I was an ACC football beat reporter last year and there was nobody else in the conference as quick or dynamic as Spiller was for Clemson in 2009. He could be the type of back that people always envisioned that Bush would be without actually being Bush. Great vision and cutback ability, good for kickoffs and can punish when he needs to. Spiller has all the makings of a back who can have a great first couple of years in the NFL before the punishment takes its toll and he flames out after five years or so. Being that this will be his first year in the league, it is safe to put him on your fantasy roster and hope the Bills line can give him the three yards he will need to create a cloud of dust.

Jackson had a lot of carries last year and was effective as he could be considering that that aforementioned Bills offensive line is something of a cesspool. There is a reason Buffalo has been looking up at the AFC East heavy hitters for the better part of the last decade. In terms of fantasy though, the Jackson/Spiller combination should provide some decent production at good value later in your fantasy draft.

Keep an eye on Marshawn Lynch as well, who still has the potential to be a productive fantasy back if his off the field problems allow him to get in the lineup. Lynch could be a significant wrench in the duo but it is a situation worth monitoring in training camp.

Bye Week -- 6

A couple other tandems to watch out for:

Matt Forte/Chester Taylor – Chicago Bears

Taylor has always been a second banana in the NFL but Forte has not yet proved that he can be productive individually. Neither Taylor nor Forte should be drafted as stand alone guys but together have decent potential.

Bye Week -- 8

Shonn Greene/LaDainian Tomlinson – New York Jets

The opposite of Forte, Greene has a good thing going with the Jets now that he has inherited the No. 1 slot with Thomas Jones in Kansas City. He has a great offensive line and a coach who loves to run. Tomlinson will be his backup and without the punishment of being The Man on a regular basis probably still has a few shining moments (and touchdowns) in his reserve tank.

Bye Week – 7

Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs

Outside of Johnson in Tennessee, Charles was one of the best backs in the second half of 2009. He probably will not be the heavy torch carrier with Jones at Arrowhead but between them the Chiefs should be able to get back to the great ground game they had between Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes in the not-so-distant past.

Bye Week – 4

Dan Rowinski is a Fantasy Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at danrowinski@rotoinfo.com. You can follow him on Twitter at Dan_Rowinski.

Washington Nationals Playbook -- Fourth of July Weekend

2010-07-03T13:07:00.001-04:00

Taking a look at what is happening with the Washington Nationals through the Fourth of July weekend.

-- The Nationals celebrated Black Heritage Night with U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder throwing out the ceremonial first pitch. The team awarded the inaugural Joe Black Award to the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission's (M-NCPPC) Department of Parks and Recreation-Prince George's County. The award, given to a person or organization that promotes the game of baseball in African-American communities, was accepted by former major leaguer Steven Carter.

Interesting tidbit on Carter -- Unknown to this reporter until researching Carter's Baseball-Reference page is that Carter is from Charlottesville, VA and graduated from the same high school that I did -- Albemarle H.S. Future note to get in touch with Carter and commiserate.

Carter played for the Pittsburgh Pirates in parts of two seasons (1989-90) a registered 23 plate appearances with a home run, double and three runs batted in.

-- The Nats lost the game 5-3 to the Mets when rookie outfielder Roger Bernadina was picked off second base by New York closer Francisco Rodriguez with Willie Harris at the plate representing the tying run.

-- Washington signed Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez to a minor league contract. Hernandez is the older brother to current Nats starter Livan Hernandez. Orlando has not pitched in the majors since 2007 though pitched eight games in the minors for the Rangers last season before being released. He posted a 90-65 career record with a a 4.13 ERA in nine seasons with four different teams and will be reporting to the Nationals' spring training facility in Viera, Fla.

-- The Mets and Nationals will continue their series this afternoon at Nationals Park with pitchers on direct opposites of the spectrum. Rookie flamethrower Stephen Strasburg (2-2 2.27 ERA) will make his sixth professional start looking for his third career win. He is opposed by journeyman knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (6-1 2.98 ERA) who has resurrected his career this season with the Mets at the age of 35.

-- Saturday's Nat's game will be on "MLB on Fox" with first pitch at 4:10 p.m. Gates to Nationals park will open at 1:30 p.m. The game will not be shown on MASN. A touch of irony: Saturday is Replica Patriotic Cap Day at Nationals Park, presented by, you guessed it, MASN.

-- Pitcher Jordan Zimmerman is on his way back from Tommy John surgery and will make his first rehab start Saturday night for Class A Potomac. Zimmerman will be on the mound for the first time since July 18, 2009 after he was yanked in a start against the Cubs with elbow pain. Zimmerman is likely to return by August if all goes well in his rehab schedule.

-- Catcher Carlos Maldonado was reinstated from the 15-day disabled list and optioned to Triple A Syracuse.

-- Trade rumors are starting to heat up for the Nats with the potential of slugger Adam Dunn being shipped out of town. Federal Baseball (part of the SB Nation network) breaks down some Washington trade rumors.

-- On Twitter -- Andy Martino (Surfing The Mets), the Mets beat reporter for the New York Daily news, posted an interesting question to his followers during Friday night's game: Which third baseman would you rather have on your roster, Ryan Zimmerman or David Wright? Given that his follower base is obviously Mets-centric, the overwhelming majority chose Wright, 30-3 at last count.

It is an interesting question. Wright is two years older and had won Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008 before being usurped by Zimmerman in 2009. Through this season Wright is batting .312/.391/.546 with a 154 OPS+ (54 percent better than average) with a league leading 25 doubles AND 63 RBI in 79 games with 343 plate appearances. Wright's career slash line is an impressive .309/.389/.512 with and OPS+ of 137.

In contrast, Zimmerman's slash line this year is .284/.350/.480 with a 134 OPS+ and 13 home runs with 40 RBI in 73 games and 301 plate appearances. His career line is .284/.375/.498 with a 118 OPS+. That is good but Wright appears to just be in a higher category that Zimmerman at this point in their careers.

-- Happy belated birthday to centerfield Nyjer Morgan who turned 30 yesterday, July 2. He celebrated by going 2 for 4, raising his season average from .254 to .258.

-- The next Nats birthday will be that of Strasburg, who turns 22 on July 20.

Have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend.

Fantasy Baseball -- Putting Boesch in perspective

2010-07-02T11:18:00.000-04:00

I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop.

How does the 25^th best prospect in the Tigers organization heading into Spring Training get a call up in late April and then go on a rampage for the next two months, with little sign of slowing down?

I am talking, of course, about Detroit rookie outfielder Brennan Boesch.

It is confounding, I tell you. It is like the 25 year old woke up sometime in February and said “this is my year.” And it has been. Through 15 games and 66 plate appearances at Triple-A Toledo Boesch hit .379/.455/.621, good for an OPS of 1.076 and three home runs. Despite the small sample size, the Tigers liked what they were seeing and brought Boesch to the big leagues on April 23 and he has subsequently hit .332/.380/.602 in with 12 home runs and 45 RBI in 56 games and 229 plate appearances with Detroit.

Yet, this is a career minor league hitter with a .274/.321/.432 slash line who had 51 home runs (though also 25 triples ) in 1811 minor league at bats.

What gives?

Twenty-five is a good age for young hitters. It is about the time where you know if a player is going to be an actual major leaguer or just a guy who keeps his bags packed – the Quadruple-A variety. His minors slash line, though not overly impressive (pretty near identical to average, actually), does not show a hitter who was in over his head. Yet, there is also nothing there to suggest that the Boesch we have seen so far is the one that will be seen for the rest of his career, let alone his immediate future. Let’s take a look at some splits.

In the minors, Boesch had a ground ball/ line drive/ fly ball percentage (GB/LD/DB) of 48.7/15.3/35.9 with 16.9 percent of those fly balls (FB+LD) coming in the infield. In his short stint in Toledo in April those percentages were skewed as his line drive rate went up while his ground ball and fly ball rate went down at 36.6/34.1/29.3 with none of his fly balls coming in the infield at all. The sample size was so small and he was raking so hard that every ball he hit in the air was finding the outfield. That is simply unsustainable.

Now that he is in the majors, his GB/FB split is .75 with a 20 percent line drive rate and 19 percent of those fly balls in the infield. Yet, his home run rate has gone way up, with 15.4 percent of his fly balls going for home runs, almost twice the league average of 7.1 percent. For context, David Ortiz’s HR/FB rate this year is 19.1 percent but his career average is 13.8, still quite high against the average.

What does this tell us? Foremost, that Boesch has been hot, but any major league pitcher, general manager or astute fantasy player could tell you that. Second, he is outplaying his career norms by a little more than one standard deviation. Third, he has been getting a touch lucky.

When it comes to luck though, Boesch has always seemed to be the beneficiary of good fortune in his professional career. His minor league batting average on balls in play (BABIP, a fair measure of how lucky a hitter is, with any league average around .300) was .316. An impressive number when you consider his 1811 career minor league plate appearances and his almost exact league average of 68 percent balls in play percentage. Though his 58 at bats in the minors this year, his BABIP was .500. So far, his major league BABIP is .379. This just cannot continue.

Then there are the home runs. Boesch is hitting a home run in his rookie season once every 17.6 at bats. That is about double the rate that he hit his 51 home runs in the minors at one per 35.5 at bats. Think of this: the major league average of at bats per home run is 36.6 putting Boesch’s minor league history right in line with major league averages.

Starting to sense a theme here?

I would hope so, because I am laying it on pretty thick. The general conclusion to be made here is that Boesch’s outstanding numbers are unsustainable given his history. At the same time it is hard to say that Boesch will just simply fall off a cliff. He will eventually regress to his means, which are not all that bad. The thing about Boesch’s means are that they are surprisingly close to the average slash line of a major league player. Major league averages tend to fall very close to .265/.325/.414 year after year. Going back to Boesch’s career minor league line of .274/.321/.432 and, what do you know, almost the same.

Boesch reminds me of another young outfielder to come out of the minors and surprise folks with outstanding and surprising hitting before falling back to earth (and staying there) for the rest of his career (so far). That player came out of the minors with 1429 career at bats, 53 home runs and line of .285/.332/.480, a little better than Boesch, but similar. He got called up late in 2005 and hit .300/.336/.549 in 257 at bats with 14 home runs and 45 RBI. Boesch at this point is a little above that level but if he continues his 17.6 at bats per home run, he will be at about the same as that particular hot rookie who everybody thought was going to be a mainstay for years to come.

That 2005 rookie’s name?

Jeff Francoeur.

Frenchy’s career line after five seasons is .270/.311/.430 and has been a perpetual frustration and disappointment to fans and fantasy leaguers everywhere. So, before you get too high on Boesch, remember that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is.

Just wait.

Image from The Detroit News.

Bruins: A rebuttal to opinion on free agency

2010-06-30T12:14:00.000-04:00

I was reading an article on The Hub Of Hockey and could not help to voice my opinion against it. The article, entitled "Bruins must be active during free-agency" by Mark Marino explains how it would be nice not to trade Marc Savard yet somehow find a way to dump either Tim Thomas or Michael Ryders' contracts and move after a young scorer, in this case Duck's young forward Bobby Ryan, a restricted free agent.

What really gets my goat is that a good portion of the article is still going back to the loss of Phil Kessel as the primary reason the Bruins scored 74 less goals in 2009-10 than in 2008-09.

Consider this: The Bruins last year had a 7.5 percent shooting percentage. League average is around 10 percent (2008-09 Bruins shot 10.9 percent). This, like the BABIP stat in baseball, is one that tends to come back to the mean and is somewhat a signifier of luck. How many times last year did you see a sure goal bounce away? Those goals would go in in a different year. The Bruins deficit of goals from 2008-09 to 09-10 cannot, and should not, be attributed to Phil Kessel. Yes, perhaps he was a percentage but the problems the Bruins faced last year (injuries leading to lack of length on the lines) would not have been fixed directly with Kessel. I am of the opinion that, without doing much maneuvering, the Bruins would come back to the middle of the pack in scoring. Add Horton and Seguin, a healthy Krejci, Savard and Lucic an maturation from Blake Wheeler (which is distinctly possible) and the Bruins might be looking at a good scoring team. Better than average, at least. It is not unreasonable to expect a jump in scoring though it probably is unreasonable to say the Bruins get back to 2008-09 levels no matter what they do. It was a fortuitous year that saw a majority of Bruins players perform well above expectations. 2009-10 was directly the opposite yet the Bruins made it just as far as they had the year before. The point is that Chiarelli should not get crazy in free agency and by everything he has said to this point, he will not. The UFA (and especially the RFA) market is a good way to handicap future plans, of which the Bruins seem to have a good plan that I would like to see Chiarelli develop. Look for the only real signing for the Bruins to make to be roster filler second market guys (the Begin, Yelle, Satan types) and depth moves. Fans love to salivate over free agency. It is fun. They look over rosters of who is available and concoct schemes to acquire them. Yet, a team like the Bruins (who have some questionable contracts that are hard to move) cannot afford to go big in the free agent signing period. I guarantee that in two years you will be writing the same article about how Player X needs to be moved because of his contract the same way that you are railing on Michael Ryder (who should be moved less for his performance and more for his attitude down the stretch last year, he just seemed not to care).

Chiarelli has said repeatedly that they would acquire through the trade market. From breakdown day to the draft last week, he has stressed that the Bruins will not be active come July 1. This is perhaps smoke and mirrors, but I doubt it. He does not have a lot of flexibility at this point. Yes, he would love to move one of his more cumbersome contracts and there is a fair likelihood that he does, but do not expect him to jump off the deep end. Chiarelli is nothing if not pragmatic (though sometimes his decision making is questionable, ie, Lucic/Ference contract extensions).

What I do agree with you on is that moving Savard would be a mistake, at least in the short term. Tyler Seguin can play a wing and probably should start there given the current roster configuration. He will get his chance to play center next season, an injury always comes up. If the situation becomes untenable, then make a move.

Disagree if you like. I will make some type of gentleman's wager -- If Bobby Ryan is a Bruin next year I will eat my hat (not literally, but something of that ilk).

What can Dunn do your you?

2010-06-29T13:23:00.002-04:00

On most nights the Nationals cannot buy a run. It is like Washington's offense mirrors the business on Capitol Hill -- slow, stagnant and dull to watch. A perpetual filibuster impeding on progress.

Thus, the notion of trading the most productive piece of the lineup -- Adam Dunn -- would seem like a major mistake. Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham have enough troubles on their hands as the Nationals offense has sputtered in June. Imagine the drop off without Dunn and a disappointing summer in D.C. becomes downright unbearable.

These are temporal concerns. That Nats are going to be better than their last two 59 win campaigns yet, at 33-44 they are on target for a 69 wins and a forgotten entity in Washington come August when Redskins training camp gets into full gear. Hence, no matter what the Nats do, the second half of 2010 is as much a throwaway as the last five years of baseball in the nation's capital.

Hence, trading Dunn now does not seem that bad of an option. He is making $12 million of his two-year $20 million contract this year and, if he was traded today, the organization that picked him up would take on approximately $6.3 million of that contract (considering a $12 million contract comes to about $74,000 a game, times 85 more games). That is not an insignificant chunk of change, about 11 percent of the Nats season payroll of $66.275 million.

Nationals president Stan Kasten knows what it takes to build a winner in the Majors. He presided over one of the greatest stretches in the history of major league baseball as the Braves president from 1986 to 2003 when the Braves won 14 straight division titles, a World Series and sported one of the greatest collection of pitching arms in the modern era.

That is what Kasten and general manager Mike Rizzo will be looking for in dangling Dunn -- pitching. Not just any pitching though. The Nats are not exactly in a position to be buyers where a stabilizing starter and reliever will put them over the top. Washington is on the lookout for close to major league ready young pitching with high upside. The ideal would be someone in double or triple A who could break the rotation by July 2011 at the earliest.

According to the rumor mill, the White Sox and Angels are the teams most interested in Dunn. So, heading over to Baseball-Reference to check on the organizational pitching depth charts of those two particular organizations and you find . . .

Just about nothing.

Los Angeles and Chicago are interesting teams. Both have been strong over the last decade and are too proud to throw the towel in on any season. Both started this year on down streaks only to come back in the last month to be contenders in their respective divisions once again and go from probably sellers to definite buyers. Yet, because of this competitive nature, neither team has much depth left on the farm, either from graduation or previous trades.

It is not like Dunn will bring a future John Smoltz or Greg Maddux to Washington in any deal. But, Washington could hope for a player on par with a guy like Derek Lowe (discounting the fact that the Heathcliff Slocumb for Lowe and Jason Varitek trade between the Red Sox and Mariners in 1998 was perhaps the most lopsided deal in the last 20 years), a sinker-baller that is durable to slot into the middle of the rotation for the next five years or so.

The two most promising players in the upper-echelon of the White Sox organization appear to be Daniel RHPs Daniel Hudson and Carlos Torres. Hudson, 23, was a fifth round draft pick in 2008 and is 10-3 in 15 starts this season at triple-A Charlotte. He has a 3.84 ERA over 82.1 innings and a K/9 rate of 10.6. His BB/9 is a touch high at 3.0. In six games (two starts) with the White Sox last year he went 18.2 innings with 6.8 K/9 though an abnormally high 4.3 BB/9. That figures to come down closer to his minor league average given more time in the majors. In the majors last year he had 20 ground balls (including one bunt) versus 38 fly balls/line drives (32 and 6).

Torres, 26, is a touch too old to be considered much of a prospect anymore and did not pitch particularly well in 28.1 innings last year (30 hits, 17 walks, 19 earned runs). His strikeout rate was OK at 7.0 per nine but he also sported an absurdly high 5.4 BB/9, well above his still high 3.7 rate through five plus seasons in the minors.

MinorLeagueBaseball.com rank Hudson and Torres as the 1st and 20th best prospects in the Chicago organization, respectively and it is not outside the realm of reality that Dunn would be worth the best prospect in a weak farm system along with a a guy who could end up being a useful arm to have kicking around the organization. Other names to watch would be LHP Santos Rodriguez (10th, primarily a reliever) or Jhonny Nunez (12th).

The Angels are similar in having poor depth in the system but have a significantly larger pool of pitchers to choose from. The top names on the list are LHP Trevor Reckling, who is having a terrible season after being promoted to triple-A this season (4-7, 8.53 ERA with appropriately terrible supporting numbers).

Right-hander Garret Richards is the Angels No. 4 prospect and has played well after being a 2009 supplementary round (No. 42 overall) pick by the Angels. He is currently pitching well at low-A Cedar Rapids and projects to be major league ready by 2012. Of all the options that are available between the two teams, Richards would probably be the best though one has to wonder if general manager Tony Reagins would want to split with perhaps his best pitching prospect for half a year of Dunn's bat, especially considering that Kendry Morales will be back in the lineup in 2011.

This, as always, is just speculation but it is always interesting to size up the trade market as the All-Star game approaches and teams identify where they stand heading into the final two-thirds of the season. If Rizzo can make an acceptable trade, a lost half season of Dunn would be a player well spent.

McNabb short on tools in D.C.

2010-06-27T17:39:00.003-04:00

A new era is upon the Washington Redskins. Mike Shanahan now has control of the ship and Daniel Snyder once again has a big name coach to oggle for a couple of years. Larry Johnson joins Clinton Portis on a full time basis with fast Willie Parker and Ryan Torain rounding out the options for Shanahan's vaunted running scheme.

And run they will. It is what Shanahan does. Has always done. There are no other coaches in the last 20 years to craft a running game the way Shanahan did in Denver on a year-to-year basis and there is no reason to think that it is going to be any different in D.C.

Yet, Shanahan has a new (well, new to Washington) quarterback to play with -- Donovan McNabb.

The reports of McNabbs demise are, somewhat, exaggerated. His time in Philadelphia had run its course as the city never really forgave him for his fourth quarter meltdown against the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX (or the plethora of botched NFL Championship games before that) and it was just time for him to get out of Eagle territory. Curious that Philadelphia would trade him to the Redskins. The notion here is that the Eagles must think they sold Washington a poison pill of which will slowly kill it or that the Redskins are such a non-factor in the NFC East that, even with McNabb, they are no threat.

Are the Redskins a threat? It is a valid question.

Lets assume for a second that the defense will be adequate and the running game above average. Kind of a stretch, I know. Really though, when it comes to rounding out of the offense, who does McNabb have as toys in his play box?

Foremost, his X receiver, Santana Moss. The same Santana Moss that was just recently implicated in an Human Growth Hormone scandal in May and who, at 31, is coming off his lowest average yards per catch of his career (12.9 on 70 receptions). Even with McNabb throwing him passes instead of Jason Campbell, Moss is on the wrong side of 30 and his numbers do not project to be much better in 2010. Backing him up is Joey Galloway. Galloway is still blazing fast but if his time in New England is an indication, he is also a bit too long in the tooth. Galloway had trouble running routes in the Patriots system and could not hold onto the ball when Tom Brady put it in his hands anyway.

On the other end Malcolm Kelly and and Devin Thomas are not exactly names that bring to mind images of touchdown dances and prolific scoring. Between the two last year they were mildly productive -- 50 catches (25 apiece), 672 yards, three touchdowns (all by Thomas). Any team with a decent second cornerback will have little trouble containing either receiver, assuming that Shanahan does not cut Kelly outright in training camp.

I know what you are thinking, Redskin fan. Who needs wide receivers when we have one of the best tight ends in the league in Chris Cooley? Well, the venerable Mr. Cooley missed the last half of 2009 with an ankle injury and this year he will definitely be asked to help in the run game as Shanahan likes his tight ends to chip in on the zone-blocking scheme. Through his career Cooley averages 3.9 catches a game at 43.6 yards and has scored 30 touchdowns since 2004. Somewhere Tony Gonzalez is snickering at the notion that Cooley is a top end tight end in the NFL.

Then there is Fred Davis, who played well in Cooley's absence last year with 48 catches, 509 yards and six touchdowns. Not bad production really but still falls in line with what an average receiving tight end in the NFL does on a yearly basis. Really, when it comes to producing offense, outside of a couple exceptions, tight ends are not viable threats as stand-alone players. They are much better in supplementary roles to quality wide receivers and running backs. It is hard to imagine, given the state of the Redskins wide receivers, that the Washington offense can take any giant leaps forward from the 22nd overall (26th scoring) offense from last year.

So where does this leave McNabb? Facing the twilight of his career with a franchise that has no option but to go through a lengthy rebuilding process in a division where the other three teams are consistent contenders.

That does not mean that McNabb will not be viable. There is a good chance that he can approximate his last three seasons -- between 3,000 to 3,500 yards with 19 to 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and a QB rating between 87 and 92.

The problem with those numbers? They are not all that different from Jason Campbell's from last year. Campbell was the 14th ranked quarterback in the NFL last year. McNabb?

11th.

Given his regression, age, new system and the lack of tools around him, do not expect McNabb to be much better than his predecessor going forward.

Which will probably make for a long year in the nation's capital.

Again.

A mid-summers look at the Bruins

2010-06-27T12:25:00.000-04:00

Some of you have been missing my Bruins analysis in the last month. Just because I am currently unaffiliated though does not mean that I cannot still break a roster down with the best of them. Since you last heard from me at WEEI.com there have been some interesting developments in the Bruins orbit. Cam Neely has been promoted to president of the team, Tim Thomas had hip surgery, Dennis Wideman was shipped out of town for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell and the team drafted some guy you may have heard about.

In my extensive breakdown of the Bruins roster shortly after the playoffs I made some predictions about the options that general manager Peter Chiarelli had in front of him in the offseason. Some of them have come to fruition (Wideman out, scoring forward in) and some that did not (Shawn Thornton being signed to an extension). So it goes. Sports reporting is an imperfect science and for the most part the best we can do is make educated guess and watch as the sideshow plays out.

After Chiarelli's conference call when the Bruins officially received the No. 2 pick in the draft, I felt like he was leaning in the direction of Tyler Seguin. That was before the OHL playoffs and Taylor Hall's gritty performance and his proposed affinity for Bobby Orr, but in trying to read Chiarelli I thought I got the sense that he liked the speed and scoring of Seguin just a bit more. Hence, I am not surprised that he did not try to get out of the second pick or make an drastic moves to get the the first overall from Edmonton because, as he stated all along, he was happy with either. Chiarelli would have been very pleased with Hall and in the end the forward probably had the slight edge over Seguin in Chiarelli's book but not enough to do anything drastic. Really, Seguin is a gift from Toronto general manager Brian Burke and Phil Kessel and the best thing for Chiarelli to do was to take that gift, say thank you and not look back.

And so it went.

Outside of the draft, the other priorities of immediate concern for the Bruins were to get their three primary unrestricted free agents figured out. Foremost on that list was Dennis Seidenberg, who Chiarelli awarded with a four-year, $13 million contract early in June. Seidenberg was important to keep because he can be slotted into the first pair with Zdeno Chara and significantly ease Chiarelli's mind when it comes to finding a sidekick for Big Z, a mild concern last offseason before the ill-fated acquisition of Derek Morris.

Johnny Boychuk was the second player on the list as the former AHL Defensive Player of the Year proved his NHL worth as a definite top-four defenseman who grew into Claude Julien's system (and the hearts of Bruins fans) as the year went along. Mark Recchi was next in line, ponying up for his usual $1 million one-year deal. Recchi was important to keep around if he was not going to retire as he is the type of character veteran that the Bruins need in the clubhouse after losing leaders P.J. Axelsson and Aaron Ward the previous year. Recchi is accountable and keeps the team on an even keel while putting things into perspective for a squad that often presses when things are going badly. He provides good depth and a stabilizing presence on Patrice Bergeron's wing and should make a semblance of a good mentor to Seguin (especially if Savard stays in the fold and Seguin ultimately plays the wing).

Thornton was a surprise to me in terms of Chiarelli's decision to keep him around as an unrestricted free agent. Many of us supposed pundits had him figured as out because of his limited hockey abilities outside of being a standup individual and team enforcer. My thought in particular was that Chiarelli would not want to keep a roster spot for an enforcer (of any kind really) given how the post lockout rules make the position increasingly obsolete. On a personal note, I am glad that Thornton is back. Truly one of the good guys in the league.

Outside of the imminent trade market in the next couple of days before free agency opens Thursday which could see Savard or Thomas (or both) on their way out, Chiarelli's task is now to figure out how to fit his restricted free agents under the cap. With Wideman out of town it becomes important to get defenseman Mark Stuart under some form of contract for next year as he figures to man the second pairing with Boychuk or Andrew Ference. Blake Wheeler is trade bait but I am not sure that Chiarelli is ready to cut bait on the former top-five pick, especially considering the team's need for offense and the potential that Wheeler has in that department. Figure Daniel Paille to stick around as a penalty killer who has the intangibles to make him a good fit in terms of lengthening Julien's lines and his ability to jump up in lines given the inevitable injuries that come with the 82-game grind.

So, let's take a look at how the depth chart looks heading into Monday, June 28th (lines are approximate guess).

Forwards

Mark Recchi - Patrice Bergeron - Tyler Seguin

Milan Lucic - Marc Savard - Michael Ryder

Nathan Horton- David Krejci - Blake Wheeler

Shawn Thornton - Daniel Paille

Depth -- Maxime Sauve, Zach Hamill, Jordan Caron and Joe Colbourne will all have a chance to make the team out of traing camp with Hamill perhaps the likeliest addition as a fourth-line center after the trade of Vladimir Sobotka to the Blues.

Note - Marco Sturm fits into this equation in the second half of the year but after destroying a knee for the second straight year Chiarelli has to figure that any production out of the German winger is gravy on top of the biscuits.

Defense

Zdeno Chara - Dennis Seidenberg

Mark Stuart - Johnny Boychuk

Andrew Ference -- Matt Hunwick

Goaltenders

Tuukka Rask

Tim Thomas

Depth -- In the event that Thomas is traded, look for Dany Sabourin to get first crack at backup duties with Matt Dalton and Kevin Regan distant players in that race.

Depth -- Adam McQuaid has proven he is NHL ready and Chiarelli has made a plethora of depth moves to bring in young defensemen to the farm. Jeffrey Penner and Andrew Bodnarchuk are probably looking at careers as Black Aces with Bodnarchuk a restricted free agent this summer.

What are the questions here? Chiarelli is probably looking for another big time defender, with the Leafs Tomas Kaberle always a perpetual option via trade. Does Michael Ryder stick around? It is a good bet that either Wheeler or Ryder will not be with the Bruins next season though with Ryder's $4 million contract, Wheeler will have to be the dangling carrot.

This is all, of course, very unscientific and since I have not been privy to insider conversations recently, really are just my best guesses based off talent available and the current organizational depth.

What do you think? What is the next move as Chiarelli retools his team into a legitimate Cup contender?

Lack of length plagues Nationals lineup

2010-06-25T19:20:00.000-04:00

The last time the Nationals were close to the .500 mark was entering play on June 11 with a 30-31 record after a sweep of the Pirates in a series that saw Stephen Strasburg make his MLB debut. Since then, Washington has gone 3-9 to fall to nine games back of first place and mar what was becoming a promising season. In Nats standards, that means that they were not absolutely abysmal and had an outside shot at being relevant in September.

Well, that probably was never going to happen, but being near .500 in mid-June with the best prospect in baseball bringing big buzz to National Park was about as good as could be expected. It seemed a minor tweak here and a roster spot there and the Nats might actually make a run at it.

Right.

Perhaps all Washington needs is to get out of the inter-league portion of the schedule as the last four series have come against American League Central opponents and two of the three wins came against the Royals, a organization far more damaged these days than even the Nationals (though they did find a way to beat Strasburg).

For the most part, it is all about the lineup. Yes, and I have harped on this before at Sports Chutney, they lack starting pitching depth but if Jason Marquis (elbow) and Chien Ming-Wang (shoulder) come back and are productive and Jordan Zimmerman (elbow -- Tommy John surgery) makes a solid return then then the rotation is not quite a glaring weakness as it has been. John Lannan, the nominal No. 1 for the last two years, has finally had his talent level catch up with his production and is back in the minors to work things out though in a real world rotation he would be a decent fourth or fifth starter if he can keep his ground ball rate up.

The pitching has given up 4.5 runs per game the last 12 games (55 runs allowed), which is actually about league average. The problem is that the lineup has gone into a serious funk at 2.66 runs per game and the Nats have been blanked with 1-0 scores twice in the last week, not counting the 2-1 extra innings affair when Strasburg went seven one-run innings against the White Sox and left the game with a 1-0 deficit (though they would score one in the bottom of the seventh to technically take him off the hook) last Friday.

When discussing major league lineups, there is a lot to be said about length. Washington has three good to great hitters in Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham, who have produced 43 of their 65 home runs and make for as stout a middle of the order presence as can be found in the majors. Yet, the trio might as well be an island and when they hit slumps there are not much other tools that manager Jim Riggleman can deploy to get the team over the hump in games where the starters give them a chance to win, as has been the case in the last six games against the White Sox and Royals.

It starts at the top. Nyjer Morgan, for all his supposed defensive prowess (great UZR/150 last year of 39.4, projected to be at -7.3 so far this year), is simply not a leadoff hitter. His slash line of .244/.304/.320 is below replacement level and his WAR of -.4 means that he has actually cost the Nationals half a win this year as opposed to where the Bill Games projected him to be at 2.4 before the season. He has 15 stolen bases but his percentage is terrible with 11 times caught stealing. Yet, Riggleman has little choice but to roll him out in the No. 1 spot every day and hope he makes some plays. Morgan will eventually come around to be a little bit better than replacement but general manager Mike Rizzo should keep his eyes open for a legitimate leadoff hitter either later this summer or in the Hot Stove. Length in the a lineup starts with two hitters at the top of the lineup who can get on base for the middle of the order and Morgan's .304 OBP just does not cut it.

Then there is second baseman Christian Guzman. He is a decent complimentary player and at first glance you might think that he is a consistent contributor with his .303 average. Yet, he has a .329 OBP, about league average and that is actually better than his career average of .308. Add to that his .389 slugging percentage (.414 usual league average) and, overall, Guzman is more of a liability than a benefit. Taken as a unit, the table setters for the Zimmerman/Dunn/Willingham trio provide scant opportunity for the big boys to feast.

On the other end the Nationals have Ian Desmond at shortstop, Ivan Rodriguez at catcher and Roger Bernadina in right. Desmond is a shell of a hitter at .251/.286/.381 and his minors line of .256/.326/.388 through five seasons does not bode well for future production. Riggleman tends to have him in the No. 8 spot which basically gives the lineup two automatic outs with the pitcher in the No. 9 spot. Despite his "hitting," Desmond has a .07 WAR, mostly because he plays decent defense with a 2.5 UZR (6.7 UZR/150 projected) thus far.

Rodriguez's line of .313/.338/.416 is good but deceiving. Of his 52 hits, 12 are doubles with one home run and one triple, making him, for all intents and purposes, a singles machine. Combine him with Desmond in the bottom third of the order and the slugging and on base percentages that lengthen a lineup are virtually nil.

Then there is Bernadina. In his first full season, he is holding his own at .284/.344/.436 with six home runs and 20 RBI in 49 games and 164 plate appearances. His OPS+ of 108 shows that he is eight percent better than league average. In a perfect world he would be a great compliment lower in the lineup but at this point might be better suited in the No. 2 slot or even leadoff. Outside of the slugging trio, he has been there fourth best hitter this year, with apologies to Pudge. He might be due for a regression with a .330 batting average on balls in play but, lucky or not, there are not a lot of options in the cupboard.

There are things to like in Washington. The core is sound with Dunn/Zimmerman/Willingham, a top-five National League starter (and likely better than that in years to come) in Strasburg and a sound bullpen with Matt Capps, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. Yet, there is no bench to speak of, the rest of the lineup is spare parts and starting pitching depth is non-existent. Yet, the task in front of Rizzo is not impossible. A couple key additions (maybe a big free agent hitter and a couple upgrades to the the spare parts) and the Nationals have the chance to be competitive next year. Considering how the National League fluctuates on a year-to-year basis, that may be good enough to grab a playoff spot.

There will be money to spend as well as the Washington market (even with the Orioles just to the north) figures to be able to support an above average payroll. Hey, if the Twins can have a $100 million payroll this year, the Nats certainly should be able to spend some money. Jim Bowden may have thrown the organization off three or four years with his roster bungling (and alleged scandal) but all is not lost in the nation's capital. Strasburg's buzz may help convince a marquee name into Nationals Stadium and from there it could be off to the races. Either way, the prospect of continuous 59 loss seasons should be behind the organization. There is hope to be competitive next year . . .

Or at least be in contention in September. In Washington recently, that would still amount to a major coup.

Fantasy Football -- Albert Haynesworth's potential impact

2010-06-16T14:24:00.000-04:00

It is only the middle of June, but news from the NFL is starting to make its way into the sports headlines. Logan Mankins looks like he is on his way out of New England. Darrelle Revis is throwing a hissy fit about his contract heading into his fourth year with the Jets and and Chris Johnson is not happy in Tennessee. Vince Young continues to hallowed tradition of Titans getting frisky at strip clubs.

Then there is Albert Haynesworth.

The big man is not happy in the nation’s capital. New head coach Mike Shanahan wants him to be a nose tackle in a 3-4 defense. Haynesworth’s agent says that the defensive tackle would have never agreed to sign his $100 million free agent contract with the Redskins if that was ever going to be the case.

That is a gargantuan pile of steaming dung.

Haynesworth signed the largest contract for a player at his position in the history of the NFL. He signed it within minutes of the free agency period opening which was a fishy move by Washington in the first place considering that it was technically not allowed to negotiate with him before free agency started.

Granted, when Haynesworth is a motivated, happy player he is one of the truly ascendant talents that has come through any NFL defensive line at any time. The problem is that Haynesworth is never really happy. He is like the Terrell Owens of defensive lineman – happy in the honeymoon but when the good vibes wear off he is just another grumpy prima dona.

Now, what does this have to do with fantasy football?

I am of the opinion that it is still too early for me to start crafting my draft strategies. The reason for that is because there will continue to be stories like this for the next month until rosters settle down and the full landscape of the league has a clearer picture.

The Redskins had the 10^th ranked total defense last season (8^th pass, 16^th run) and were 18^th in points against at 21 per game. It was not a defense that was all that draft worthy and most teams projected that go 4-12 usually are not worthy fantasy options. Yet, there were reasons for optimism on the defensive side going into last year, mostly because of the addition of Haynesworth. LaRon Landry, DeAngelo Hall and Carlos Rodgers gave them some decent players in the secondary and if Haynesworth could help stop the run the way he did with Tennessee then there was some significant potential.

Sans Haynesworth, the Redskins look like they are in trouble … again. Maake Kemoeatu is not on the same type of level and general manager Bruce Allen will have his hands tied with available options going forward.

The most interesting aspect of Haynesworth’s actions is who the potential suitors may be. If this all works out the way the defensive tackle hopes (traded to a contender with a 4-3 base) then the loss for the Redskins is an equal or greater benefit to his next team. There are rumors that the Vikings are kicking the tires and if that were to go through then it would be interesting to see the 6^th ranked total defense (2^nd run, 19^th pass) add a potential beast to an already dynamic unit. Haynesworth could make more room for Jared Allen who was second in the league last year with 14.5 sacks and help an ailing secondary by putting more pressure on the quarterback.

Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys would love to stick it to Washington by acquiring Haynesworth, even if the rivalry is a little empty these days considering how bad the Redskins have been. The Cowboys had the 9^th best defense last year (4^th run, 20^th pass) and were second in the league at 15.6 points per game. Haynesworth probably would not like to play in the Cowboys’ 3-4 but perhaps DeMarcus Ware could shift to the outside on the defensive line in a realigned 4-3 to accommodate the Haynesworth.

Baltimore is probably all set with their defense, as usual and there is no telling which way Ray Lewis falls on the Haynesworth-as-potential-teammate subject. New England just dealt with a disgruntled Adalius Thomas and for the first time in a long time had locker rooms issues, so it is probably out. San Francisco has the potential to play a 4-3 and has a recent history of dealing with disgruntled personalities (hello Michael Crabtree).

A case could be made for or against every team in the league. The broader point that Haynesworth brings up though is that, even though it is only June and defense is often a minor fantasy concern, it is never too early to start planning your strategy. The guys who win their fantasy leagues year after year are the ones who are paying attention to news from mini-camps and contracts in June.

Fantasy Baseball -- Market Efficiency Royalties

2010-05-31T14:45:00.000-04:00

Editors Note: This column can be found at RotoInfo.com in the near future.

At this point in the fantasy baseball season it may be hard to take advantage of most market efficiencies in certain statistical categories. A lot of owners are either jumping on trending players quick or jumping at any ghost of a player that goes on a hot streak just to try and gain some momentum and get back into the league race.

One thing popped out at me this weekend though while watching Kansas City and Boston split a four-game series – the Royals’ batters have some decent batting averages.

Before running into the Clay Buchholz/Jon Lester buzz saw in the final two games of the series and watching the its team average drop from .280 to .278, Kansas City was leading the majors in batting average (the Yankees jumped them at .282 entering Memorial Day). The Royals have a plethora of contact hitters led by Billy Butler who has a .348 batting average and is emerging as a great second-tier first base option and a force in the mid-West.

But there is more to the Kansas City batting spree than Butler. Alberto Callaspo is hitting .287, David DeJesus .286, Scott Posednik .296, Yuniesky Betancourt .281 and Jason Kendall .286, all of which are not misnomers based on number of plate appearances accumulated thus far. Add to that Mitch Maier at .272 and Mike Aviles at .327 (in three-quarters at-bats, granted) and there are things to like about these hitters and their sky-blue uniforms.

This is where the market efficiency comes into play. The Royals, by definition of being, well, the Royals, tend to only get serious fantasy consideration when there are players like Butler or Zack Greinke playing like their heads are on fire (or for that next contract that will get them out of western Missouri). Except for Butler, the rest of the Royals are a flawed team and it is actually hard to call them a terrific offense. They have a cumulative .338 on-base percentage (eighth in the majors) and are just about average in slugging percentage at .412 (12^th in the majors). That adds up to 224 runs thus far, 17^th in the majors. Those are not numbers that create the type of fantasy buzz around a group of hitters that make them much sought after commodities.

Which is a good thing for you, especially if you need to pick up some points in the batting average category.

The specific players to keep and eye on and go after if they are on the free agent junk pile in shallow to middling leagues are Aviles, DeJesus, Podsednik and Callaspo. Aviles is getting a lot of time at second base recently and hit .330 in 100 plate appearances in May after missing most of April. He had a respectable 17 runs to show for it, so he will not kill you in that department either. He is definitely a player to look at if you are a Dustin Pedroia or Chase Utley owner and are frustrated by their extended slumps that show little signs of turning around any time soon. Granted, Pedroia and Utley are basically the two best second basemen in the majors, but giving your fantasy roster a little breather to test Aviles out for a week and let the two All-Stars get back on track may be a worthwhile short term investment. You can always stash Aviles on your bench in the meantime as insurance.

DeJesus has been a solid fantasy contributor since 2005 and his career slash line of .286/.358/.426 has is right in line with his 2010 line of .286/.369/.444. He is not a first tier outfielder but he does sneak into the bottom of the second tier and would be a good pickup in a trade that included a couple other pieces. He will probably score another 40 to 60 runs this year that would definitely be decent production on your roster.

Callaspo is nowhere near being your everyday starting third baseman but he offers decent power to go along with his batting average to make him worthwhile. He has seven homeruns already this year with a .480 slugging percentage and looks at least double his career high of 11 homeruns from last year. Callaspo would be more or less a straight batting average pick up because his ISO (Isolated Power Rating, slugging percentage minus on-base percentage) of .191 is well above his career average of .131, promising a regression closer to his career mean later in the season. He is also versatile and, depending on your league, he may be available at third, shortstop and second base depending upon league availability formats. Players that can fill in across the lineup are always valued on fantasy rosters (with Ben Zobrist being the gold standard in that venue).

Podsednik is a little bit of a blast from fantasy baseball past. He was a must-have from 2004-06 with the Brewers and White Sox in terms of stolen bases, average and runs scored before falling off in 2007-08 before bouncing back to be viable last year. He continues his reemergence in the fantasy realm this year with 16 stolen bases thus far to go along with his near .300 hitting. You could do a lot worse than target him in a trade, especially if you are falling too far behind in the stolen base category.

Kendall has been, and will always be, a lower end fantasy catcher. The problem with Kendall, and yes, this is a bit oxymoronic, is that he plays too much. In reality, he is a great catcher to have on a major league roster. He plays hard, hates to sit and always has a decent batting average. He averages 134 games a year, great for a catcher and his career .290 batting average is nothing to sneeze at. Then again, he also average three homeruns a year with 58 RBI, so yes, there are better options behind the plate. Kendall always seems like the catcher that is readily available either on the waiver wire or via trade for teams that have missed out on the top-tier fantasy catchers and end up more or less wasting that roster spot with the hopes that guys like Dioner Navarro will somehow decide it is 2008 all over again.

Then there is Betancourt. Under no circumstances would I ever endorse Betancourt who is considered by many to be one of the very worst players in the majors. While a lot of the Royals offer some value in multiple categories, Betancourt is good for his average with a .275 career mark but that is about it. Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore, noted for his lack of sabermetric acumen, likes players like Betancourt because they have good batting averages even if they have historically bad on-base percentages (Betancourt’s career on-base mark is laughably horrific). If you are looking at any of the Royals, better just to stop if Betancourt’s name is mentioned.

Overall though, Kansas City as a group has distinct skills that can provide at least some temporary benefit to your fantasy roster. Being that that they are the Royals, you might be able to pick them up on the cheap as well. As the calendar turns to June, that is not something to be overlooked, even if everybody else does.

Daisuke Matsuzaka against pitch f/x

2010-05-29T16:33:00.004-04:00

There is just no rhyme or reason to it.

For the last several hours I have been cross-checking Daisuke Matsuzka's pitch f/x data (from Brooks Baseball) with choice games on Baseball-Reference.com between 2008 and 2010 looking for some pattern I could exploit and say "there it is! That is the reason he is so inconsistent!"

Really though, this may be a futile effort.

In terms of pitch f/x data, I have tried to pinpoint batter results by pitch release point, balls and strikes by release point, batter results and balls and strikes by strike zone plot against both right and left handers. The list goes on. There are a couple things that I will point out below but let me give you a little context first.

I was triggered to try and break down Matsuzaka once and for all after his last two starts have resulted in one of the oddest splits you will ever see in a pitcher. On May 22 against the Phillies in Philadelphia, Matsuzaka took a no-hitter into the eighth and finished the game with eight innings pitched, one hit, four waks and five strikeouts. His Bill James game score was a terrific 81, ranking the third highest of his career.

On Thursday, when everybody thought that Matsuzaka may have finally turned a corner. Then he comes out against the Royals (a team that has the highest batting average in the American League but has a very mediocre on-base percentage meaning they do not walk much) he goes 4.2 innings with one strikeout, three earned runs and eight walks. His game score for that clunker was 41 (which, considering the eight walks, was not that bad).

In both outings he threw 112 pitches, which makes the contextual difference between the outings more striking. Against the Phillies, Matsuzaka threw 73 strikes against 39 balls. Against the Royals it was 60 strikes to 52 balls.

Let's take a look at the strike zone plot from the Royals game by left and right handed batters, respectively. Note: Pitch f/x data is from the catcher's perspective.

What pops out with these strike zone plots are just exactly where the balls occur. If there is one thing consistent about Matsuzaka is that, for the majority of the time, he tries to pitch away from hitters and his balls tend to be focused in two zones. He is either missing high on the right side of the plate or low on the left side. Note how the plots tend to flow away from the hitter as Matsuzaka misses to lefties a lot high and outside and the chart stretches in that direction while he misses low and away to righties with the plot stretching the opposite in correlation.

What does this tell you? As a right-handed pitcher it means that his delivery is flying open on the right side of the plate and he is pushing the ball too far to the left side. This also has a lot to do with his release point. As Matsuzaka either lets his shoulder fly open too early or rotates too far, it is nearly impossible to fin a consistent release point for his pitches. Too many moving parts and the gears just fall off the machine.

Matsuzaka's release point against the Royals:

It is hard to put this in context except to note that the size of the overall cluster represents a large range of release points. Also note the fringes of green (balls) on the top left and lower right of the cluster, representing where he has either flown open too early or released too late. For a matter of comparison, here is the release point for Roy Halladay on April 11 of this year in a complete game shutout against the Astros with eight strikeouts, seven hits and no walks. Halladay is a good comparison to Matsuzaka because in terms of consistency of delivery, he is a machine.

Without breaking it down too far, it is easy to see that Halladay keeps his release point range smaller than does Matsuzaka, with a couple of fringe outliers drawing the cluster out.

So, whereas the scatter plots against the Royals were drawn out, Matsuzaka was much better within the strike zone against the Phillies, especially considering that Philadelphia is a team with a four dangerous left-handed or switch hitters (five when Jimmy Rollins is healthy, which he was not) in their everyday lineup. Matsuzaka was successful against the Phillies because he lived on the outer edge of the strike zone without deviating too far away from the plate, especially against left-handers.

Matsuzaka was good in the outside of the zone and keep the ball down without opening up too far. The overall strike plot for the game shows that he did tend to miss overall down and away to right-handers. His release point against the Phillies was also tighter though the difference was noticeable from where he was releasing the ball against the Royals verse where it was against Philadelphia.

You can see how the plot does is a little more center focused and does not have the rounded edge on the bottom left part of the cluster the way it does against the Royals. He still released late on balls to the lower left side of the zone, stretching the cluster out to the right but overall it was more consistent against the Phillies than Kansas City.

In each game Matsuzaka's primary pitch was his four-seam fastball. Against the Royals he threw 62 four-seamers and hit the strike zone with 32 of them (51.61 percent). A fair amount of those fastballs that missed were the ones that were placed high and on the outside of the plate. He did not throw any other pitch more than 16 (that being his slider, with nine strikes and then his two-seam fastball 15 times with eight strikes). Against Philadelphia his four-seamer was much more effective and he threw it a third less of the time with 41 pitches with a 63.41 strike percentage. His two-seamer was also on display that night with 29 pitches and 18 strikes.

Matsuzaka is more effective when he can establish the four-seamer and mix it with the two-seamer to give hitters two different looks at basically the same speed (92.93 MPH average with the four-seamer, 92.96 with the two-seamer). He needs to establish his four-seam fastball first though before throwing the two-seamer which sets up his slider and curve, which were extremely effective against Philadelphia with a combined 21 strikes on 30 pitches. Against the Royals he threw the curve ball 12 less times (19 to seven) and had 13 strikes on 23 sliders/curves.

The conclusion with Matsuzaka is that the only thing consistent with him is his inconsistency. As my former colleague Alex Speier at WEEI.com pointed out the other day, it is absolutely befuddling. From sore neck, back, shoulder to the difference of Japanese baseballs to American baseballs or hotel room beds. At this point, the difference in baseballs should not be a problem, especially from one start to the next. Matsuzaka did say that he had some "lower-body soreness" against the Royals and that could explain why he was flying open early. Really though, "lower-body soreness?" What is this, freaking hockey?

It seems that the one thing that Matsuzaka needs to do from here on out to climb back to the upper-echelon of pitchers is to stop worrying about his stuff, get out of his own head and pound the strike zone with his two effective fastballs, adding in his change-up the secondary pitches for balance.

Bottom line, Matsuzaka is not short on talent. He just needs to get out of his own way.

Fire Brand -- The Intangible Benefit of Dustin Pedroia

2010-05-26T21:48:00.001-04:00

Editors note: This post can also be found on ESPN's Sweet Spot baseball blog network Fire Brand of the American League where Dan Rowinski is a weekly columnist.

Everybody knows about "The Laser Show." Dustin Pedroia is the working man of working men on the Sox roster (next to Kevin Youkilis, of course) and the straw that stirs the proverbial cocktail. Pedroia seems more like a whiskey type of guy to me, not that it matters.

Yet, the Sox former Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year is not having the best of starts to the 2010 season. It has been a poor May for the Sox second baseman with a .237/.343/.376 in 23 games entering Wednesday with two home runs and seven RBI in 108 plate appearances. Definitely not the greatest month of Pedey's boisterous career but, as is often the case, the base numbers do not tell the whole story.

The Sox lineup, as always, is a meat grinder. They have four players in the top 20 in the American League in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA) and Pedroia ranks seventh at 4.27 (behind Youkilis who is fourth at 4.36) through 217 plate appearances (Victor Martinez is 11th at 4.12, J.D. Drew 13th at 4.11 while Marco Scutaro is 33rd at 3.92). Pedroia is also second in the league in total plate appearances at 217, behind only Denard Span of the Twins at 218, and leads the league in total pitches seen. Factoring in the entire majors, Youkilis ranks ninth and Pedroia 19th in P/PA.

Sitting in the No. 2 hole in the Sox lineup, Pedroia pesky plate appearances have a ripple down effect. Take for instance last Thursday when Boston beat Minnesota 6-2 on the strength of Jon Lester's nine-strikeout complete game. Pedroia was 0-3 with a walk and a run against the Twins and Francisco Liriano and was instrumental in knocking Minnesota's wily lefty out of the game after 4.2 innings with five earned runs on five hits and three walks. Pedroia was in the midst of a 4 for 39 slump at the time that spanned from May 12 to 23 before putting up three hits against the Rays on Monday.

There were good things to see from Pedroia that night. In his first three plate appearances against Liriano he saw 21 pitches, working the lefty to into a frustration that Martinez and Youkilis would capitalize on. In his first at-bat, Pedroia saw four pitches and popped out to shortstop in the first. Nothing out of the ordinary there but the second baseman saw eight pitches and drew a walk (and scored on a Youkilis three-run homer) in the third and then nine pitches on a fly out to right-center in the fifth. His final at bat was a four-pitch fly out to right against Jesse Crain.

After Pedroia's final three at-bats against the Twins the next hitter up, Martinez, hit a double. Coincidence? Perhaps but Liriano served up meatballs to Martinez after throwing 17 pitches to Pedroia between his second and third at-bats and Martinez was able to put some wood on the ball in early counts on his way to a three double night.

"We made him work and it is a lot easier when you get one swing of the bat and get a three-run homer. Youk put a really good swing and what maybe was overlooked going into that was Pedey had a great at bat so we had some base runners. Youk takes a great swing and drives it and it spreads it out a little bit," manager Terry Francona said in his press conference after the game (I was covering it for WEEI.com that particular day).

That is the value of Pedroia. Never stops working, never gives up and at bat and sets the tone at the top of the order.

On Wednesday against the Rays, Pedroia's talents were once again on full display. Twice he worked a walk on Tampa starter Matt Garza and scored on home runs by Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz as the Sox went up 6-2 in the middle innings. The first at-bat against Garza in the third inning Pedroia went down in the count 1-2 and then drew three straight balls to work a six-pitch walk. Ortiz grounded out into the right field shift next but Pedroia knew that nobody was covering third on the play and hustled around the diamond to beat the throw and keep the inning alive with a runner in scoring position.

Youkilis then drew a walk and Beltre hit his second home run of the game that made it 4-2. Then in the fifth Pedroia drew another six-pitch walk against Garza and then scored immediately as Ortiz put the ball in the right field bleachers.

Reports of the Red Sox offensive demise before the season have turned out to be exaggerated and in retrospect they look quite foolish. Any team that sees a lot of pitches is going to have a degree of success because it means that lineup is dotted with quality hitters. The track records of guys like Drew, Pedroia, Youkilis and Scutaro were evidence that the Boston offense was going to be just fine and heading into Memorial Day, that is definitely the case.

Fantasy Baseball: Catch These Rays

2010-05-26T19:44:00.000-04:00

Flipping through some league stats the other day and one thing popped out to me – the Rays are leading the American League in ERA … by a full run. Surely, I thought, the Rays are good, but are they that good?

So, I dove into the numbers. As of Wednesday the Rays team ERA was 2.92. The next closest team was the Mariners at 3.72. So, not a full run, but close enough for even casual baseballs observers to sputter on their beers.

How are the Rays so good? More importantly for this space, how can they help your fantasy baseball team?

Really, it all comes down to the starters. David Price, Jeff Niemann, James Shields and Matt Garza all have ERAs under 3.00 and rookie Wade Davis is not far behind them in the maturation process at 4.01. They are all young and healthy with Shields the leader at age 28 that, coincidentally, is smack in the middle of “peak years” for starting pitchers (between the ages of 27 to 31, more or less).

The staff as a whole holds opposing hitters to a .227 batting average, .291 on-base percentage and .362 slugging percentage. Consider that league averages tend to be .264/.325/.414, then it goes to show how impressive the Rays staff has been. The peripheries statistics back up what the staff is doing as well with 7.6 hits per nine innings, 2.9 walks per nine, 7.3 strikeouts per nine a 2.5 strikeouts per walk.

The leader in the clubhouse is probably Shields but the maturation of former No. 1 overall pick Price makes him the undoubted leader on the field (and in your fantasy league) through the first two months of the season. A 7-1 record with 2.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 46 strikeouts through 59.2 innings pitched tends speaks for itself. That correlates to 6.9 strikeouts per nine, a touch lower than his career average of 7.1, 2.00 strikeouts per walk and an ERA+ of 176 (whereas an average major league pitcher would be 100). Price has done improved incrementally from his relatively disappointing 2009 by throwing more strikes (65 percent ahead of 63 percent in 2009) and doing it early (62 percent first pitch strikes, four percentage points over last season). His secondary pitches have improved and hence hitters have been swinging less and striking out looking more. The only thing that might be concerning about Price is that his batting average against on ball in play (BABIP) is .243, which is a little more than have the league average year-to-year of .300 meaning he may have found some luck in the early going but overall his stuff is good enough that even if it does rise into the .290-.300 range, he should still be able to keep wracking up the numbers. With an average draft position of 164 in ESPN leagues, Price has been a steal for a lot of fantasy owners this season.

Price, like the rest of the Rays pitchers, benefits from a strong Tampa Bay offense that averages 5.3 runs scored per games started, above the league average of 4.6. With a run-differential of +95 though, any of the Rays pitchers should be a good bet to give you wins in your league.

Following Price would probably be Garza with a 5-2 record, 2.41 ERA and ridiculously low 1.082 WHIP through 64.2 innings pitched. His peripheries are better than Price’s too at 7.5 K/9 and 2.70 K/BB and 2.8 BB/9. His walk rate is .7 below that of Price that leads to his low WHIP. Add it all up and Garza leads the team with an ERA+ of 176.

Shields is similar to Garza but not quite as spectacular. The Rays rely on him to be the steadying influence and primary innings eater and he leads the team in innings pitched this year at 69.1 after Tuesday’s start where he was the hard-luck loser to Jon Lester and the Red Sox as the Rays were one-hit by Boston in a 2-0 loss. Shields took the loss, bringing his record to 5-2 with a 2.99 ERA, 1.226 WHIP and a 146 ERA+. Shields’s BABIP is high and the folks at Baseball Info Solutions that put out The Fielding Bible have put together a metric that says Shields has been among one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors thus far this year (whereas Price has actually been the third luckiest).

The backend of the rotation between Niemann and Davis is decent but Davis, like Price before him, has been having some rookie-like outings in his first season and Niemann has been the beneficiary of some luck himself through the first part of the season. Niemann’s era of 2.54 will not stay that low as his BABIP is low at 2.44 and his “strand rate” (runners allowed left on base at the end of an inning) of 84.5 percent is 13.5 points above the league average of 71 percent. Both of those numbers will go back towards the league average and Niemann’s ERA (and ERA+ of 167) will rise back to the 3.80 range or so by the end of the year. But, with a career average of 2.12 K/BB and the Rays putting up runs behind him he should remain to be a viable fantasy starter but with an own-rate of 90.7 percent in ESPN fantasy leagues, he may be available on the waiver wire in shallower leagues and his WHIP of 1.09 and 4-0 record should look attractive to teams in need of stability on their pitching staff. Also, like Price, his average draft position of 260 makes him a great value for those prescient enough to pick him at towards the end of the draft.

Davis is one to keep and eye on. As of yet he is not a great fantasy option except in deep mixed leagues or in head-to-head leagues when he is a two-start pitcher. He is just 4-4 (which gives him three more wins than Zack Greinke, but that won’t last long) with the aforementioned 4.01 ERA and a 1.480 WHIP translating into a 106 ERA+, making him slightly above average. Yet, when times get tough in the dogs days of fantasy baseball summers, an average major league pitcher on the best team in the league starts to look like a great option. Davis has the talent to go on a streak and will definitely be available in most leagues as a free agent pickup.

Overall, you cannot really go wrong with any of the Rays starting five. None of them were the most sought-after pitchers in drafts this spring but putting together a couple of them (for instance, trading for Shields and Garza if you already own Price) should be able to carry your team to contention come September.

Fantasy Baseball: The Stud Call-Up Season Is Here

2010-05-23T18:20:00.000-04:00

It is my favorite time of the fantasy baseball year and where my usually title contending teams separate from the pack if I hit on the right player.

It is rookie stud call-up season.

Now, you might be thinking that September is really call-up season. While that is the 40-man roster expansion date and picking up some rookies then can help your team down the stretch, usually by September you are pretty entrenched into you position in your fantasy league and that little extra boost will do nothing for 95 percent of fantasy owners. Also, the difference in the late-May, early-June call-up season and September is that the guys coming up earlier in the year are the studs who were sent down at the end of Spring Training either for a little extra seasoning or two set their arbitration clocks back and keep them from becoming Super Two category players. The players coming for September are on either end of the spectrum – the older veteran free agent waived in mid-August or the too-young-to-be-MLB-ready youngster ending minor league years but played well enough for a cup of coffee.

For instance, when Dustin Pedroia got his initial call-up in September of 2006 for a Red Sox team that had fallen out of contention. He got 98 plate appearances and had a .191 batting average, .258 on-base percentage and .303 slugging with two home runs, seven RBI and no stolen bases. The next two years, “Laser Show” Pedroia was the Rookie of the Year and the American League Most Valuable Player. It was much better to pick him up in late May of 2007 when he got hot (and has pretty much stayed hot) as opposed to grabbing him the previous September when there was hype about the Sox bringing up a solid second round second baseman.

So, depending on the service time of the player, this is the time of year that they are being brought up. My guess is that a fair amount of you reading this either already have Stephen Strasburg stowed away or someone on your league does, so I will avoid the obvious. Yet, 2010 is shaping up to be a great year for young talent outside Strasburg and Jason Heyward and picking these guys up or keeping them on your radar could be the difference from fighting for position come September or watching as the big boys battle it out while you are trying to figure out who the backup running back to Darren McFadden will be.

There are some imminent arrivals on the horizon:

Outfielders –

Mike Stanton – Florida

Jose Tabata – Pittsburgh

Desmond Jennings – Tampa Bay

Michael Taylor – Oakland

Third Base –

Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh

Josh Bell – Baltimore

Catchers –

Buster Posey – San Francisco

Carlos Santana – Cleveland

Tyler Flowers – White Sox

Pitchers –

Kyle Drabeck – Toronto

Chris Tillman – Baltimore

Jake Arrieta – Baltimore

Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay

Tanner Scheppers – Texas

Note: These are all players who are still in the minors but should find space on their major league rosters sometime within the next month-and-a-half. There are a couple other players in this rookie group that deserve some attention as well such as Drew Storen who has the potential to close for the Nationals, Starlin Castro at shortstop for the Cubs. It is also worth it to take major looks at Mike Leake of the Reds and Wade Davis of the Rays as starting pitchers who began the year with their big league clubs and are having strong starts to their seasons.

But, back to the potential call-ups. The biggest names on that short list there are Posey, Stanton, Drabeck and maybe Tillman. Few scouts have doubts that these players will sooner than later be impact major leaguers and all but Tillman should get regular time once they get the call (the Orioles bullpen is so woeful that Tillman and Arrieta are probably headed there before getting thrown to the Camden Yards fire).

The reason that Stanton, Drabeck and Posey will be immediate starters (probably on your fantasy team as well) is because their parent teams have glaring weaknesses at their positions. The Giants cannot hit a lick and Posey lengthens their lineup well while probably kicking Aubrey Huff out of the lineup or to the outfield. The Marlins have atrocious numbers from their corner outfielders (looking at you, again, Cameron Maybin) and Toronto needs pitching to go with a surprisingly strong offense.

Let’s take a closer look at each of those players. Stanton was a second round pick by the Marlins in 2007 and is 21 in November. A lot of player development professionals want to see young hitters play well in the minors for about 1500 plate appearances and as of Saturday Stanton had 1338 from rookie league to double-A Jackonsonville in 310 games. This year through 39 games he has 17 home runs and 43 RBI with a .313/.446/.741 line, exceptional in everyway after struggling initially with Jacksonville in a mid-season promotion in 2009. Given that little bit of history, the Marlins might like to see how Stanton does at triple-A New Orleans but at this point the clock is set to “when” not “if” for this season.

Posey has already got the call-up to the Giants and has 40 innings behind the plate under his belt with 17 plate appearances. With a -38 OPS+ rating, he has not done much yet but there is a good chance he will find his groove this year and be a semi-productive catcher at one of the weakest positions in all of fantasy baseball. He had 723 plate appearances in his minor league career with a .328/.423/.534 line and in 41 games at triple-A Fresno this year had 181 plate appearances with a .333/.431/520 line with five home runs and 28 RBI. That is a major-league ready catcher if there has ever been one and it is worth keeping a close eye on him when his bat catches up to big league pitching.

Drabeck probably will not set the league on fire but has the potential to be a stabilizer. This year in double-A New Hampshire he is 5-4 with 48 strikeouts, 3.59 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in nine games started and 52.2 innings pitched. Those are not particularly great numbers, especially considering his peripheries of 4.1 walks per nine innings, and 2.00 strikes per walk but his 8.7 strikeout per nine innings is promising and should not fall below 7.00 or so when he comes to the majors. If he can cut down on his wildness, especially in the big leagues, it is not out of reason to assume that he can stay around his minor league levels of 3.68 ERA and 8.2 strikeouts per nine with a much more respectable 1.286 WHIP.

Perhaps Tillman or Scheppers are more to your liking on the pitching front or you are higher on Jennings than Stanton. The point is that these are potential impact players in reality that means they could definitely be difference makers on your fantasy roster very soon. Keep an eye out on the transaction wire in the next month so you can be the first to lock them down when the time comes.

The Perfect Game Mirage: Dallas Braden

2010-05-11T21:09:00.001-04:00

A lot of mid-season fantasy baseball is about chasing mirages. You think you see something in a young, unheralded prospect who has had a good week getting time filling in for a veteran and you go pick him up off the waiver wire only to have him bat .178 for the next three weeks and get designated for assignment.

Or maybe you see a seldom used veteran get a chance to start and put up some decent numbers. Marco Scutaro was a late bloomer. So was Denard Span. Then you have also-rans like Nick Green for the Red Sox last year or Darnell McDonald this year who, despite some dramatics, are not worth a spot on your fantasy roster. That does not mean that somebody in your league is not going to put him on his roster.

But, by far the biggest mirage that gets fantasy owners frothing is when a marginal pitcher comes out of nowhere and throws a no-hitter, or in Dallas Braden’s case, a perfect game. There was a fairly good chance that Braden was available in your league as he was owned in only 65 percent of owners in ESPN free leagues earlier this week. He saw a spike in ownership right after the perfect game and a lot of activity on the trade line.

But, other than Braden making some early season waves when he became irate with superstar Alex Rodriguez for crossing the mound when returning to first base from third after a foul ball, there has not been much to Braden to remark upon in his career. The question becomes: is Dallas Braden really a guy you want to go out of your way to acquire at this point in the season?

The answer is that he is in the middle somewhere. If he is not on your roster, I would not go out your way to get him. He is a good option in deeper mixed leagues or as an waiver acquisition during two-start weeks but there are a fair amount of starting pitchers you can find at this point in the year with middling strikeout numbers and a couple of wins to their name. At 4-2 with and ERA of 3.33 (a Fielding Independent Pitching line – FIP -- of 3.45 indicating the level he is actually pitching at on an ERA scale) he is pitching about half a run better than his line last year of 3.89 (3.73 FIP which is rare that the number would go down instead of up, especially considering his park weighted xFIP was at 4.80) and his peripheries say that will probably drop to at least the 3.90 range sometime within the next month.

Now, that is pretty good when looking at backend fantasy options. But within a standard 5x5 roto world, there is more to it than just ERA. He plays for the Athletics, a team that has trouble hitting and has averaged 3.9 runs per game of support for him through his career (4.2 this year). League average tends to be around 4.42. He had five “tough losses” last year in 22 starts. A “tough loss” is categorized as a loss for a pitcher when he has registered a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER or less). This year he has one in seven starts so wins can be a concern.

He is a starter, so saves are out of the question as a value category so he should provide good WHIP and strikeout numbers to be of value. This year, his WHIP is fantastic at .96 through 46 innings pitched. He has reduced that this year by dramatically reducing his walks per nine innings from 3.14 in 2008 to 2.77 in 2009 and then cut in half to 1.37 this year. For a guy with a history of walking guys in the big leagues, it is hard to imagine that he can keep his walks per nine under 2.00 for the year and hence his WHIP will adjust correspondingly. Braden also has a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .245, about .55 below league average and .63 below his career average of .308. Put these two stats together and it says that he is pitching a little over his head in terms of his historical reference points.

Braden’s career major league strikeout per nine innings ratio is a very mediocre 5.65 even after he put up great strikeout numbers through the minor leagues. This year he is right at his average at 5.48 so he is not a guy who will really help you get ahead in the strikeout category. He will help you tread water, certainly, but a roster full of Bradens would be destined to finish the bottom half in that statistical category.

It is not unheard of for a pitcher to really start tuning it up in his mid to late 20s. Braden is 26 and due for some type of breakout, even with his relatively mediocre stuff topping out at 87 miles per hour with his fastball and a deceiving if overly unimpressive slider. He could turn into a late-career Tom Glavine type or even Jamie Moyer but that is not exactly the type of comparison a 26-year-old pitcher with 53 career MLB starts under his belt wants to hear.

Think of Braden like Aaron Laffey with an attitude. Baseball-Reference.com lists Laffey as one of Braden’s top comparables with a 972 similarity score (1000 would be an identical player). Then ask yourself, how much do I really want to trade for Aaron Laffey?

This article will appear on May 12 at RotoInfo.com. Dan Rowinski is a columnist for RotoInfo.com and can be reached at DanRowinski@RotoInfo.com.

Fantasy Owners: Don't Panic, It Is Only April

2010-04-14T13:31:00.001-04:00

Set the barn on fire, slaughter all the livestock, and poison the wells. You are in the midst of being conquered and, for the moment, there is no hope in sight.

But wait. Is that the sound of a friendly bugle? Are their reinforcements for our weary troops? Has the cavalry arrived to save us from certain destruction?

The answer is no, the cavalry has been here since the beginning.

It is the beginning of the fantasy season and you are sitting on the bottom of your league. You thought you had a good draft but key components are not living up to expectations. Josh Beckett has not turned out to be the ace you thought he was, Manny Ramirez may be showing his age and that sleeper pick who you absolutely knew would be setting the league on fire from the sound of the bell is languishing on the bench or in the minors.

Do not fear, intrepid fantasy owner. Remember the key to all statistical analysis (especially pertinent in baseball) – everything comes back to the mean.

The guy who is leading your league by a mile right now because he (for some reason no one can quite figure out) drafted and started Vernon Wells, Daric Barton and Dallas Braden? Yeah, he is not going to keep that up.

There is a reason that the core statistics in baseball hardly ever deviate from their averages. Over the long run of the season the sample size becomes so large that the numbers cannot help but stay within similar ranges. Season over season and “average” major leaguer will hit around .265 with a .326 on-base percentage and .414 slugging percentage. If you have done your due diligence and have taken players who have career averages above those means then there is a good chance that they will eventually perform back to their historical value.

What does this mean? Do not go out and sell Victor Martinez just because he is batting .250 on April 14. It also means that you should look at players like Blue Jays reliever Casey Janssen have probably just gotten lucky to already have three wins in the first week and a half.

A closer look at Janssen. He has the league leading three wins, but he also only has three innings pitched with four strikeouts and two walks. On April 8 he came he came in to a game the Jays were losing 1-0, threw a scoreless inning then watched as Toronto scored three runs in the ninth for the win. The next night he allowed a run to the Orioles in the eighth but watched as the Jays scored a couple in the ninth to win 7-6. Two days later he pitched a scoreless seventh against the Orioles and watched his team score three in the eighth and one in the ninth for a 5-2 win.

The lessons here are that Janssen has pretty much been the lucky recipient of some cardiac comebacks by the Blue Jays. Considering the overall lack of talent on the Jays roster, the division they play in and the fact that two of those wins came against the equally hapless Orioles, you get the idea that it is not worth relying on early season indicators as recipes for season long success. Especially when it comes to middle relievers on bad teams.

Janssen is just pertinent example of early season sample size, not a viable fantasy option. There are not many fantasy owners (0.9 percent in all ESPN leagues) who actually own him.

There is a reason that owners in the elite Tout Wars fantasy leagues do not like to trade in the first month of the season. They have crafted, drafted and carved their teams with the hope and knowledge that they believe their players will perform. Why start trading away the Becketts, Martinezes or even Nate McLouths of the world for the (proverbial and literal) Janssens? It is probably not even worth to pick Janssen up on the waiver wire (where you will inevitably find him) because the likelihood that he wins three more games all season is probably quite low. Again: See middle reliever – Toronto Blue Jays.

Conscientious and cerebral owners who have a good pulse on their league can take advantage of the impulse owners who are in an early season panic. There are always bad owners who drafted well by some magic or luck who will be enticed by a trade of big names, say David Ortiz and Eric Chavez for Jason Heyward. If you can find one of those owners in your league, make the deal and do not look back.

Otherwise, it is only April. Remember that everything that rises must converge and exercise your patience.

Dan Rowinski is a Fantasy Baseball Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at danrowinski@rotoinfo.com. You can follow him on Twitter at Dan_Rowinski.

Great review of Horse & Hound Gastropub Beer Dinner

2010-04-07T15:20:00.000-04:00

Editors note: This post is copied in its entirety from the blog Edible CVille, authored by a woman named Libby. It is such a fantastic assessment of the Horse and Hound Gastropub that it just had to make its way to Sports Chutney. One, just to get H&H some more pub, two because there has been a lot more sports and not enough chutney here for a good while. Just so you know, my brother-in-law if the Chef Luther mentioned in the piece and he owns the restaurant with my sister Brooke. Enjoy.

Horse and Hound Gastropub.
When Hubby and I lived in Pittsburgh, we used to attend the Sharp Edge Beer Festivalevery June. A beer tent full of over 100 different kinds, from lagers to pilsners, to Belgian ales and beyond. For three blissful hours distributors would offer you tastes of their wares then punch a hole in your "dance card" (the festival card ensuring you had no more than one taste of each beer offered). We'd compare beers and compete to see how many we could quaff in three hours, our cards resembling Swiss cheese by the end. Afterward, we'd stumble into the Sharp Edge Beer Emporium to scarf down pub grub and count the days until next year. Inevitably, we'd start talking with total strangers who'd just come from the festival as well, and end up staying long after closing, debating whether or not Duchess du Bourgogne was a gorgeous red ale, or simply vinegar (I'm a firm believer in the latter for the record, BLEH!)

Ever since we've been trying to recreate the festival experience by attending Cville beer dinners. Of course, you don't get the depth and breadth of beer styles (i.e., drunkenness) you do at a festival, but it's still a great way to sample while enjoying what we hope will be great food. We've had various levels of success with this experiment (I'm looking at you l'étoile), and it was with this in mind that we recently attended the Ommegang beer dinner at Horse and Hound Gastropub.

I'd not yet been to Horse and Hound, but the menu looked interesting, and I loveOmmegang beer. So much in fact for the longest time I thought they were a Belgian company, but no, they create their nectar in Cooperstown, NY of all places - lucky baseball hall of fame tourists!

I don't know what it is, but every time I go to a beer dinner I think it's going to be like a beer FESTIVAL. But it's not. Instead of conversation growing organically under the friendly beer tent, they sit you at this long table full of SOBER strangers, and instantly you feel like you're having dinner with the in-laws for the first time. You better be on your best behavior! Awkward conversation abounds. Inevitably, within 20 minutes I wish Hubby and I were at our own table where we can act like 12-year-olds without repercussion. But no, we stay at the big-people table and get what I imagine to be disapproving looks that only get worse as the night goes on and we get more silly.

This night was no exception. So, I put on my "Chatham face" (the term I used in my old job when I had to go to social functions and be nicey-nice) and do my best to make friends. It was fine. Not a beer festival, but fine.

As at any beer dinner (I talk like I'm an expert when I have been to only TWO) the distributor does his spiel about the roasting of the hops, the loving care taken in the creation of this nectar, the fabulous untouched by human hands spring water sprinkled lightly over the barley like a warm spring rain. Yadda Yadda Yadda. The poor guy. You could tell he adores his job, but this is usually where I tune out and start looking at what food is coming. Hoping for that first pour. Let ME be the judge as to whether the beer is good or not. It's the same when I visit wineries - you can ply me with reams of heritage and lineage and information and awards and medals, but the real story is the taste.

The TASTE of the beer which was superb, but in this case, the real story was in the food as well, and the presentation. Each course arrived quickly, but not too quickly, presented perfectly, and with a short explanation by Chef Luther as to how the dish was prepared. I started to feel a little like Padma Lakshmi, without the plunging cleavage or the attitude. Yes, it was a little "Top Chef" and you know what?.............I LOVED it. It made the dinner special. It made me FEEL special. Hearing the Chef's process, the way he chose the ingredients to complement the beer, then the way the course was prepared, made me excited to eat it. Even the diners around us, stuck with the regular menu of meat, chicken, and sandwiches, looked envious.

They should have been. The food was outstanding. Every course. So it surprised me later when I looked up Horse and Hound's regular menu and found it pretty pedestrian. But Chef Luther can create all these OTHER things, so why sell steak and sandwiches? Does the other not sell? I got the impression the regular menu was Chef Luther's 9-5 daily grind, and the beer dinner was his time to "play".

And play he did. What I love about his menu is not only were the offerings paired perfectly with the beer, but he USED the paired beer in each course. So simple. So genius. I will always remember March 4, 2010, as the day I first tasted Flemish Carbonnade. A hearty beef stew which is the Belgian national dish. Slow braised beef - and I mean slow. Chef Luther told us it took him THREE DAYS to prepare this dish in its entirety. Braised in the Ommegang 2009 Ale(of which we were told only 3 casks remain) with vegetables, prunes, and spices until everything is just falling apart the minute you touch it. I SWOONED on first taste. It was bliss. I may have gushed ever so slightly as I left the restaurant, shaking Chef Luther's hand, thanking him, lingering just a little longer than I should. In my heart I wanted to kiss his feet but restrained myself. It was a beer DINNER after all and not a beer festival.

The next beer dinner is April 22, 2010. The menu is here. I suggest you go. No, it's not a festival - there will be some awkward conversation. You will have to listen to some distributor wax poetic about how his ales can cure the common cold. But I can almost guaran-damn-tee you there will be great food. Oh, and good beer too. Now, where can I buy an "I heart Chef Luther" tee shirt?

Horse and Hound Gastropub / Ommegang Beer Dinner
March 4, 2010

First Course - Prince Edward Island Mussels
Steamed in Hennepin, red coconut curry cream
Hennepin Farmhouse Saison

Second Course - Zucchini, Corn, Herb, Conch & Crawdad Fritters
Horseradish-orange marmalade
Rare Vos Amber Ale

Third Course - Duck, Lamb, Beef & Irish Banger Cassoulet
Ommegang Abbey Ale

Fourth Course - Flemish Carbonnade
Slow-braised in "Obamagang" ale, smashed red bliss potatoes, roasted vegetables
2009 Ale "Obamagang"

Fifth Course - Chocolate Cherry Profiteroles
Three Philosophers Quadrupel

Buyer Beware: The Verducci Effect

2010-04-04T16:06:00.000-04:00

Injuries are the great equalizer in fantasy baseball.

Predicting them is difficult, though not impossible. Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus is a foremost expert on injuries and does a fair job each year of identifying players who have higher or lower risk (and designating them with flags – red, yellow, green etc.) and there are other databases created by the sabermetric community that are very useful when trying to predict whether a player will break down over the course of the year or not.

When it comes to young pitchers, injuries and performance, the general rule over the past few years has been to watch out for the Year After Effect. Better known as the Verducci Effect, named after Sports Illustrated baseball writer Tom Verducci , the rule is defined “as any 25-and-under pitcher who increased his innings log by more than 30 in a year in which he pitched in the big leagues” by Verducci in his Feb. 16 article on SI.com.

The idea is that pitchers under 25 should be allowed to gradually develop at the major league level. If a pitcher goes 30 innings or more above his previous career high, he is at risk for the Verducci Effect.

The poster boy in recent memory for this has to be Cole Hamels. In leading the Phillies to the World Series title in 2008 he ended up pitching 253.1 innings between the regular season and playoffs. That was 63.1 innings more than he pitched combined in 2007 and it comes as no surprise that he struggled in 2009 with 193.2 regular season innings and another 19 in the postseason.

Hamels went 14-10 in ’08 with a 3.09 ERA, 142 ERA + and a league leading 1.082 WHIP. In 2009 he went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA, 98 ERA + and 1.286 WHIP. Going by the ERA + numbers (where 100 is average), that is a 44 percent decrease in performance from year to year.

To be fair, there are pitchers who escape the Verducci Effect. Jon Lester pitched 237 innings in ’08 (with postseason) and, after some early struggles, was a dominant pitcher for the Red Sox in ’09 and has a lot of analysts picking him as a top Cy Young contender this year.

What to expect this year? I did some research and found a plethora of young pitchers who could be at risk for the Verducci Effect this year. Some of the names on my list match Verducci’s own (he has made predictions on 10 pitchers at SI.com) and a couple of them are no-brainers.

The first place to look is at three particular organizations known for riding young pitchers – Los Angeles, Detroit and Atlanta.

All three franchises have been playing with fire, to a certain extent, year after year with young pitchers. The Dodgers Chad Billingsley threw 147 innings in ’07 and then a combined 212.1 in ’08. Billingsley was 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA in ’08 then 12-11 with a 4.03 ERA in ’09.

This year Joe Torre has another pitcher with red flags in the form of 21-year-old Clayton Kershaw. In ’08, at age 20, he pitched 107.2 big league innings and then threw 184.1 a year later. Will his performance continue to climb in ’10 or will he find himself on the disabled list or generally ineffective this summer?

Then there is Detroit, a team that has pushed young arms like Justin Verlander, Jair Jurjenns and Armando Galarraga hard in their young careers. They did it again in ’09 with 20-year-old Rick Porcello who threw 170.2 innings last year, about 45 more than his previous minor league high. Porcello was also asked to throw a lot of high effort innings as the Tigers imploded down the stretch last year to miss the postseason.

The Braves pushed Tommy Hanson last year, mostly because he was a stud for them straight out of the gate. Between the minors and his time with the big club, he pitched 183.2 innings, 45.2 more than his previous minor league high. The Braves rode another young pitcher (oddly enough acquired from the Tigers organization) in Jurrjens who hit a career high 188.1 innings in ’08 after not pitching more than 142.1 in a season before that. Jurjenns had 215 innings last year and it should come as no surprise that he is dealing with some arm issues this spring.

Who else to keep a close eye on this year? Look out for Florida’s Josh Johnson (+ 52), Oakland’s Trevor Cahill (+ 54.1) and Brett Anderson (+ 55.1), Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez (+31.1 with postseason) and Max Scherzer (+ 42). Especially look out for Scherzer since he was traded to the Tigers in the offseason and it is a team desperate to make the playoffs and will push its pitchers as far as they will go.

This year’s poster boy for the Verducci Effect will probably end up being Homer Bailey, who only had 203 combined major/minor league innings last year that were 55.1 more than his career high. As Verducci points out, there was no reason for Bailey to throw that many innings last year, especially for a team that looks to be a dark horse coming into 2010.

The best way to prevent injuries from ruining your fantasy season is to keep an eye on the news wire, which is exactly the thing we do here at RotoInfo. Stay ahead of the game and make roster moves as soon as you are sure that you will lose one of your contributors for an extended period of time.