The 2016 US Open will be the 116th playing of this prestigious tournament, and will take place from June 16-19 at Oakmont Country Club in Plum, PA. Danny Willett is coming off a Masters victory after Jordan Spieth imploded on the back 9, and opened at +3000 to win the US Open. Spieth opened as a co-favorite with Rory McIlroy at +600, but now everyone is chasing Players Championship winner Jason Day.

Here’s a look at recent winners and their consensus pre-tournament odds to win:

And here are the current and opening odds via 5Dimes:

Via CRIS, the players getting the most tickets to win the US Open are Phil Mickelson (7%), Rory McIlroy (5%), and surprisingly Brooks Koepka (5%). Koepka is a 50:1 longshot to win but he’s a popular pick, so he may be a trendy underdog to avoid.

At William Hill, Dustin Johnson (5%), Jordan Spieth (5%), Jason Day (4%) and Phil Mickelson (4%) are receiving the most support to win the US Open. Rory McIlroy is getting just 3% of tickets there despite +700 odds, which makes him an intriguing pick for this week.

Members can follow the lines for every matchup from our Live Odds page. If you’re interested in fantasy golf, we recommend checking out FantasyLabs.com.

Before the opening round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs started on April 16th, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power released odds for the NBA Finals MVP. At the time of publication, Paddy Power was the only sportsbook offering odds for the award. They have been updating this prop bet throughout the playoffs, but we wanted to see how these odds had moved.

The table below compares the 2016 NBA Finals MVP odds throughout the playoffs:

Draymond Green has now been suspended for Game 5 of the NBA Finals due to an incident at the end of Game 4. This moved his MVP odds from +100 to +300, and allowed Curry to move from -125 to -260.

Andre Iguodala, the 2015 NBA Finals MVP, opened at +5500. The last player to win back-to-back Finals MVPs was LeBron James, who did so in 2012 and 2013. Since that time, his odds of repeating ballooned to 175/1 before dropping down to 16/1. Prior to Game 5, Iguodala was tied for the fifth-best odds.

Iguodala is not the only member of the Golden State Warriors to open with favorable odds. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson have been listed as three of the top options since the start of the playoffs. Although their odds dropped significantly when they were on the verge of elimination against Oklahoma City, all three are once again listed as top options.

Stephen Curry was listed as the MVP favorite throughout the playoffs with the lone exception coming when the Warriors faced elimination against the Thunder. At that point he was listed with the second-best odds at +350. However, Curry has struggled during the NBA Finals averaging just 16 points per game. With his declining output combined with Draymond Green’s exceptional performance, Green has emerged as a slight favorite.

When this post was first published, LeBron James (+500) was identified as another player offering value to bettors. We stated that the Cavs had an easy route to the NBA Finals based on the weak level of competition in the Eastern Conference.  Since the start of the playoffs, LeBron’s odds of being named the Finals MVP improved from +500 to +110 before dropping to +600 following the Cavs Game 2 loss. Their surprising victory in Game 3 caused his odds to move from 6/1 to 4/1 at BetOnline.

Who do you think will win this award? Will the NBA Finals MVP be a member of the Golden State Warriors? Please leave your comments in the section below.

The 2016 Wimbledon Championships take place from June 27 to July 10 in Wimbledon, London, England. Wimbledon is the oldest tennis tournament in the world and arguably the most popular as well.

Unfortunately Rafael Nadal has already withdrawn on the men’s side, but his odds to win majors has slowly been slipping over recent years. All eyes will again be on Novak Djokovic, as he aims to win all four Grand Slam events this season. Djokovic was listed at +1100 to do so before the year and is now listed at +190 to pull off the incredible feat. He has already won the Australian Open and French Open this year, and looks to take that momentum into Wimbledon.

Here’s a look at the odds to win the Men’s title led by Novak Djokovic:

Djokovic is getting the most tickets at CRIS with 24% of support, but that number actually seems low given his dominance. Andy Murray has clearly inserted himself as his most formidable opponent ahead of Roger Federer, but players like Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori could make a run at them this tournament.

Here’s a look at the odds to win the Women’s title led by Serena Williams:

Serena was upset by Garbine Muguruza at the French Open and was upset by Angelique Kerber in the Australian Open, otherwise she’d also be chasing all four Grand Slam events this year. The suspension of Maria Sharpova has improved the entire field’s odds, and we tend to see more longshots with a chance to win women’s titles lately. Young players like Sloane Stephens and Belinda Bencic are getting some good support at CRIS and could make a deep run.

And finally here’s a look at past winners:

This tournament was once owned by Roger Federer in the early 2000s, but Novak Djokovic has since taken over the throne and won the last two as the tourney favorite. On the women’s side, Serena Williams looks to defend her title and win her 7th Wimbledon title of her career.

Sportsbook has released early 2016-17 NHL Stanley Cup odds and neither the Sharks or Penguins are favored to win it. In fact, neither are even favored to reach the Stanley Cup Final next season. Below shows a table of Stanley Cup odds for the 2016-17 NHL season as well as Eastern Conference and Western Conference odds:

Stanley Cup Odds:

The LA Kings have opened as favorites to win the Stanley Cup next season at +500 odds followed by the Blackhawks and Stars at +750 odds.

Eastern Conference Odds:

Despite not getting past the Penguins in this year’s playoffs, the Capitals are +250 favorites to make it to the 2016-17 Stanley Cup Final.

Western Conference Odds:

The Stanley Cup favorites are obviously favorites to win the West as well, despite getting bounced in the first round of this year’s playoffs.

While it’s still very early, are there any teams you’re keeping an eye on over the summer?

The 2016 MLS season began on March 6, 2016 for the entire league, an exciting opening day full of 10 matches. Last season saw the Portland Timbers upset the Columbus Crew as +275 dogs in the MLS Cup Final. Before the season, Portland was listed at +2800 to win the title while Columbus was +3300, showing the parity that the league has long been known for.

Below we’ve taken a look at 2016 MLS Cup odds and neither of last year’s finalists were favored to win this year.

Below was published on March 6 before the start of the season:

The New York Red Bulls and LA Galaxy are the early favorites but it would be naive to completely rule out teams like Houston and Philadelphia towards the bottom. MLS is a league full of parity and it wouldn’t be a shock to see any of the bottom teams make a run at the title.

There are a couple teams’ odds which stood out to me at first glance: NE Revolution at +3300 and Toronto FC +1900. Both teams made the playoffs last season with solid squads and could be improved this year in the wide-open Eastern Conference. I think both New England and Toronto at their current odds are presenting some nice value, and hot starts from either side will see those odds quickly diminish.

Although MLS betting is not as popular as other sports, is it something you’re willing to invest in? Does the parity around the league make you feel more confident in taking a big underdog? Feel free to discuss in the space below.

Over the past three weeks, I have broken down the marquee NBA playoff games using the tools available to Sportsbook Insider and Bet Labs subscribers. By examining public betting trends, sharp money indicators and betting system matches, I have been able to identify which sides and totals offered value to bettors.

Three weeks ago I highlighted value on the Golden State (-8.5) and the under (222) in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals

Two weeks ago I explained that bettors were overreacting to Golden State’s recent struggles, and argued that they were once again offering value as a 7.5-point favorite in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors went on to win by 9.

Last week I pointed to sharp money indicators on the spread and total in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. For the third consecutive week, those picks won with ease.

In this week’s edition, I will try to maintain this hot streak while identifying value on the spread and total. Although the home team has won by an average of 26 points per game this series, there’s reason to believe that the tides will change this evening.

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After losing the first two games of this series, the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors by 30-points in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Following this blowout victory, the Cavs opened as 2.5-point favorites at the market setting Pinnacle sportsbook. Perhaps even more interesting is that this marks the first time under Steve Kerr that the Warriors have been underdogs in back-to-back games.

Although bettors rarely have the opportunity to take Golden State as an underdog, there has been a strong reaction to the Game 3 blowout. At the time of publication, the Cavs were receiving overwhelming public support with 63% of spread bets and 71% of the money.

The screenshot below displays the individual betting trends at our contributing sportsbooks.

It’s interesting to note that square sportsbooks (like SIA and BetUs) have seen incredibly one-sided public betting on Cleveland while sharper books (like 5Dimes and BetDSI) have been far more evenly split. It’s also worth noting that over the past two seasons, the Warriors have gone 13-6 ATS when they’re not receiving a majority of public bets.

Although teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have posted a winning record, the optimal threshold for betting against the public comes at the 40% level. Since 2005, teams receiving no more than 40% of spread bets have gone 237-201 ATS (54.1%) with +24.89 units won. That includes an 11-4 ATS record during the NBA Finals.

It’s true that contrarian favorites have been the best value during the NBA Playoffs, but further analysis found that the real value comes when we examine “elite” teams that are being largely ignored by the betting public.

Elite teams (>70% win rate) have gone 48-23 ATS (67.6%) in #NBAPlayoffs when receiving 40% or less of spread bets. (h/t @SportsInsights)

— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) June 10, 2016

As a contrarian bettor, I always advocate buying on bad news and selling on good. It’s an excellent way to capitalize on public perception and find artificially inflated lines. One of the best ways to buy low, as we detailed in an earlier blog article, is taking teams after a blowout loss. My research found that playoff teams coming off a 30+ point loss have gone 17-13 ATS since 2005 and 37-21 ATS since 1990. Going one step further, I found that teams coming off a 25+ point loss in the NBA Finals have gone 4-0 ATS since 2005.

All of these indicators point towards sharp money on Golden State (+2.5), but it’s important to note that there are some recent trends that favor Cleveland. For starters, home court advantage has been crucial during the NBA playoffs. Home teams have gone 52-30 ATS (63.4%) during the 2016 NBA Playoffs and 513-471 ATS (52.1%) since 2005.

There have been contradicting bet signals triggered on this game, but almost every historical trend points towards value on the Warriors as a small road underdog. In fact, several systems also point towards value on the Warriors moneyline (+119). Over the past eleven seasons, playoff teams coming off a loss of 25+ points have gone 37-36 straight up with +28.67 units won and a 39.3% return on investment (ROI). When we focus solely on road teams, that ROI soars to 63.2%.

I love the value on Golden State +2.5 on the spread and +119 on the moneyline, but I expect this to be a close game so I would recommend that bettors take the points.

In addition to finding value on the spread, there’s also tremendous value on the over/under in tonight’s game.  The opening total was 207 at Pinnacle and public bettors have been hammering the over. At the time of publication, 74% of tickets and 95% of the money were taking the over. Despite this one-sided public betting, the total dropped from 207 to 206.5. That reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is on the under.

In addition to this reverse line movement, there was a smart money alert triggered on Under 207 at SBG. This season the SBG smart money alert has gone 31-17 (+11.2 units), making it one of the most profitable NBA bet signals this season.

These trends already pointed towards value on the under, but the referee assignments helped to cement this pick. Since 2005, the under has gone 343-288 (+39.22 units) in games officiated by Dan Crawford which makes him the second best “under” ref in our database. Jason Phillips (52.40%) and Mike Callahan (52.14%) could also be qualified as “under” refs.

Defensive intensity typically ramps up during the postseason, and that has historically benefitted under bettors. The under has gone 49-32 record (60.5%) during the 2016 NBA Playoffs and 518-475 (52.2%) since 2005. When the closing total is at least 190, that win rate improves to 54.3%.

It’s also worth noting that Kevin Love (concussion) has been updated to probable for tonight’s game. The Cavs actually looked like a better team with Love on the bench, so it will be interesting to see whether he’s re-inserted into the starting lineup.

These numbers are always subject to change, so make sure to visit our free NBA odds page for up to the moment lines, betting trends, injuries and more.

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