Sports Jerseys Canada Blog

How to spot fake NHL jerseys

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 17:10:00 +0000

Fake NHL Jerseys are an issue that Reebok and all us licensed retailers have had to deal with for the past few years. As a retailer, it's usually pretty easy to spot all the fake jerseys when going to an NHL game and the percentage of fake jerseys is astonishing.

It doesn't bother me that much because I know that a lot of those people bought a jersey because it was $60 and would haven't bought it if it was $175. I also understand that Reebok wants to take them out of the market by shutting down websites, seizing shipments at the border and so on but things like that are too big for us and out of our control.

What bothers me is that there are a ton of people that buy an NHL jersey whether its for themselves or as a gift for a friend or family member and they're unaware that they're buying a fake. These are not only the clients that we're losing as retailers but I'm sure that most of you feel bad for those people. The best we can do is educate people and get articles out there that show the difference between the two so here we go.

Here are three easy ways to know if a website is selling fake or real jerseys:

1. Price: The easiest way to spot a fake jersey is the price. Manufacturers of fake jerseys will try to reproduce the RBK Edge Authentic Jerseys which have sewn-on logos and patches as well as a fight strap. These jerseys retail for about $400 on NHL Shop; we sell them for $310 and a few other retailers have a similar price as well. You MIGHT find one on sale for about $200 if Reebok is coming out with a newer version and if a store has some stock to get rid of but even with a great deal you won't find a real jersey with sewn-on logo and fight strap for under $150.

2. Players Available: Reebok does not sell RBK Edge Authentic Jerseys with names and numbers. Retailers will buy the jerseys blank from Reebok, maybe pre-customize jerseys for a few players but most will have them customized on order. All licensed retailers will therefore be able to put any name and number you want at the back of a jersey. If they only have 4 or 5 players available and won't put another name, it is very likely that they're selling a fake.

3. Products Available: Licensed retailers will have access to all of Reebok's NHL licensed products. Some, like us, will choose to focus on jerseys because they don't have the resources to sell $20 or $30 t-shirts. However, all licensed retailers will at least sell both RBK Premier and RBK Edge Authentic Jerseys and most likely sell youth and women's jerseys as well. If a site is selling only men's jerseys and selling only one kind of men's jerseys, they are most likely selling fakes.

There are a number of other ways to see if a jersey is real or fake when you have it in hand (colours, font, fight strap, stitching etc.) but pictures can be tricked when you're shopping online. The three things I mentioned don't lie. I don't know of any fake jerseys site that will respect any of these criteria and there's no way that a fake jersey store will respect all three.

If you want to go ahead and buy a $60 fake jersey, go for it. It won't look nearly as good as the Pro Customized RBK Premier Jerseys which we sell for $174.99 but I'm fully aware that not everyone can afford these jerseys. All I want is that the people which can afford it don't end up buying a fake jersey thinking it's a real one.

New Winnipeg Jets Jerseys Speculation

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 12:18:00 +0000

The new Winnipeg Jets jerseys are probably the second biggest mystery in hockey right now after the Crosby injury situation. Since we're in the jersey business, it has to be our number one.

We don't have any secret information as to what the jerseys will look like and we won't until they're unveiled to the public within the next few weeks. It shouldn't be much longer however since the Jets are playing their first preseason game on September 20. One player, Blake Wheeler, who did have "secret information" posted a picture of the team's pants on his Twitter account: http://lockerz.com/s/132236390. It doesn't tell us a whole lot but it's still nice to see a little preview of what the uniform will look like.

If I had to speculate, since the pants are dark blue and don't have a line on the side or any other colour on them, I don't think they will choose to go with a mainly dark blue uniform. Scott Brown, director of communications for True North Sports and Entertainment, has also stated that the picture of the Jets jersey which was leaked last week is "not even close" to the real jersey. Even though there's no other blue on the jersey, it is possible that the Jets would go with a uniform of another colour as a few other teams have done.

Take a look at the Blues home jersey for example:

The main colour is a lighter blue even though that colour is not on the logo and there's white and yellow accents on both the jersey and the logo. My guess is that the Jets will go with a similar concept: a lighter blue logo with quite a bit of dark blue as well as red and grey accents. If that the case, the numbers would probably be red with a grey outline. Once again I just want to remind all of you that this is pure speculation and I'm simply having fun at guessing what it might look like.

I might be totally wrong but either way, I think my suggestion would look pretty nice. Finally, you can pre-order the new Winnipeg Jets jerseys from our online store or you can simply send us an e-mail and ask to be notified when they're in stock which should be sometime in November.

We'll have some more articles in the coming weeks about the other new jerseys for the 2011-12.

Latest NHL News

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Sat, 11 Sep 2010 12:36:00 +0000

Training camps are approaching very quickly in the NHL and the regular season is now less than a month away. The Hockey News has released their 2010-11 Predictions and the most surprising one is probably the Vancouver Canucks finishing first in the Western Conference.

In Edmonton, Taylor Hall has chosen to wear the #4 and the choice was approved by Kevin Lowe. Copper & Blue's Staff is pretty split on the decision. As a side note, Taylor Hall jerseys are available in our online store.

Kuklas Korner has published some interesting statistics on the shootout in 2009-10. Take a look at the top 20 goalies and top 20 players in shootouts from last season.

There were also quite a few signings in the past week:
-Peter Mueller signed a 2-year deal with the Colorado Avalanche
-Blue Jackets first round pick Ryan Johansen signed an entry-level deal.
-Phoenix Coyotes and Martin Hanzal agreed on a 2-year deal.
-Andrew Cogliano resigned with the Edmonton Oilers for one year.
-Nigel Dawes agreed to a two-way deal with the Atlanta Thrashers.

R&D Camp, New Tiebreaking Rule and Other News

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 15:20:00 +0000

Earlier this week, a Toronto Maple Leafs Blog, Pension Plan Puppets, had their content stolen by the Toronto Sun. Here's a nice article from Blueshirt Banter that describes the situation and talks about the lack of respect for bloggers. A few months ago I had a major website copy part of one of my articles and it was very frustrating. At least, they handle the situation better than the Toronto Sun did.

The biggest news in the past few days has been the NHL R&D Camp. The most detailed article I read on the topic is by Jim Kelley from Sportsnet. He looks at the rules being tested and sees which ones ave the best chance of going through. The one rule change that has been made so far is that shootout wins will no longer count in the tiebreaker. Nothing major but I guess it's a nice rule.

Edward Fraser from THN.com Blog looks at the winners and losers of the 2010 off-season. Excellent article especially since it gives credit to the Blackhawks for doing the best that they could given the situation they were in.

Here are some other news and articles from the past week:
-Vincent Lecavalier will undergo minor arthroscopic procedure.
-Alexander Edler is skating again.
-Copper & Blue questioning what the Oilers are doing this summer.
-CBC will televise 10 AHL games in 2010-11.
-In Lou We Trust analyzes the goals scored against Martin Brodeur in 2009-10.

Finally, Icethetics has a nice article on teams changing jerseys for the 2010-11 season. All of these jerseys will be available on our online store within the next few weeks and many, including the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vancouver Canucks special jersey are already available.

The Ilya Kovalchuk Saga

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 15:36:00 +0000

After a couple of months off we're finally back for the 2010-11 season. The biggest topic of the past few weeks in the NHL has undoubtedly been Ilya Kovalchuk.

Richard Bloch ruled in favour of the NHL and decided to void Kovalchuk's contract. I think most people agree that this was the correct decision but what I don't understand is why it wasn't done before. The NHL has realized its mistake and is now looking back at similar contracts: Roberto Luongo, Marc Savard, Chris Pronger and Marian Hossa.

Instead of putting a vague clause saying:
"Article 26(3) allows for a finding of circumvention if the intention of the parties was to circumvent the CBA OR if the net effect of the deal, intention aside, was to get around the CBA."
Why not put in something like on a 3-year contract every season must be at least 25% of the total contract, 20% for 4 years and so on. This means that on a 4 year deal worth 20 million, the most front-loaded contract possible would be 8 million in the first year and 4 million in the final three. Pretty simple and solves a lot of problems. You might argue that the NHL didn't see this coming but it wasn't too hard to predict. Maybe not 10-12 year deals but a 7-year front-loaded deal like Marc Savard should have been predictable.

Here are thoughts from a few other bloggers:
-Eric Macramalla from "Offside: A Sports Law Blow" analyzes the decision in depth

-Winging It In Motown argues that the NHL shouldn't be able to go this. I have to say I agree with this and especially this part: "The teams and the players should have a right to know exactly what they're allowed to do."

-Jewels from the Crown has a few nice quotes from arbitrator Richard Bloch.

-Puck Daddy also writes an article saying that this whole situation is a joke.

-Pro Hockey Talk discusses the fallout from this and the investigations of the four other contracts.

Here are some articles from local sources regarding the other four contracts:
-Marc Savard - Boston Globe
-Chris Pronger - Flyer Flies
-Roberto Luongo - Vancouver Sun
-Marian Hossa - Chicago Now

State of the Montreal Canadiens

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Thu, 27 May 2010 21:49:00 +0000

The Montreal Canadiens surprised everyone by beating the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins before losing to the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference Finals. This team had been depleted by injuries all season long and were finally able to pull everything together in the playoffs despite playing without their number one defenseman Andrei Markov.

Bob Gainey was heavily criticized for a number of his moves over the past few years but his overall record doesn't look so bad. The Montreal Canadiens made it to the playoffs in five of the six years that Gainey was GM and three of those times they made it past the first round. He was also criticized for signing small players last summer but it certainly wasn't a factor in these playoffs.

Let's take a look at the 15 players they currently have under contract for next season:

Scott Gomez - F - $7,357,143 - When the Canadiens traded for Scott Gomez last summer, Gainey was criticized for acquiring another small center but, most importantly, for acquiring his 7 million dollar contract. Many failed to realize that this trade was done in preparation for July 1st and is probably what allowed Gainey to convince Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri to sign in Montreal. Sure Gomez probably isn't worth more than 5 or 5.5 million but this trade was necessary in order to have a competitive team in 2009-10. Gomez picked up 59 points this season and added 14 in the playoffs; we can probably expect 65 to 70 from him next season if Gionta stays healthy and if Pouliot picks up his play a little next season - Overpaid.

Mike Cammalleri - F - $6,000,000 - He was on pace for 38 goals before suffering an injury in late January. He struggled for the final nine games of the regular season when he came back from his injury but picked it up again in the playoffs scoring 13 goals in 19 games. Had he not been hurt, Cammalleri probably would have finished in the top 30 for points and in the top 10 for goals. He is approximately the 25th most paid forward in the NHL which seems pretty fair, although one could argue that he is underpaid after the playoffs he had - Fair value.

Andrei Markov - D - $5,750,000 - Before the 2009-10 playoffs, the large majority of the Montreal Canadiens fans would have agreed that Andrei Markov was the most valuable player to the team. Over the past few years, the Canadiens had an awful record when Markov was out with an injury as he was pretty much their only good puck moving defenseman. Although he has been injured often over the past two years, he is still amongst the five best defensemen in the NHL in my opinion and is worth at least as much as Jay Bouwmeester who signed a deal worth 33 million over five years last summer - Good value.

Roman Hamrlik - D - $5,500,000 - He has finished second in time on ice per game in each of the last three years behind only Andrei Markov and, most of the time, has been solid defensively. The problem with Hamrlik is that he is starting to slow down at 36 years old and probably won't get much more than 25 points next year. The Montreal Canadiens are very glad to have him but they just wish he was making 4 million a year instead of 5.5 - Overpaid.

Brian Gionta - F - $5,000,000 - Similar to Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta had a pretty good season overall but was slowed down by injuries. Gionta's stats over 61 games would have given him 38 goals and 24 assists over a full season. This would have put him in the top 10 for goals and the top 50 for points. His offensive statistics are slightly worse than Cammalleri's but his defensive play makes him just as valuable - Good value.

Jaroslav Spacek - D - $3,833,333 - Most agreed that this was a good signing by Bob Gainey last off-season but it didn't turn out as well as expected. Spacek was disappointing for most of the season but played much better in the playoffs which could be good news for next season - Slightly overpaid.

Andrei Kostitsyn - F - $3,250,000 - He is an extremely talented player but who unfortunately is just as inconsistent. He remains a pretty good top six forward but his production has declined since signing a three-year deal in 2008. - Slightly overpaid.

Hal Gill - D - $2,250,000 - In just a few months, Hal Gill went from one of the most criticized players on the team to one of the most appreciated. Despite the criticism, he was solid defensively all season long and was a leader in the locker room. He does not bring much to the team offensively but he is excellent in his role - Fair value.

Travis Moen- F - $1,500,000 - He had the second best season of his career offensively with 20 points and was the second most used forward on the penalty kill. He won't do anything special but he is one of the few third or fourth line forwards on the team that played regularly on the penalty kill - Fair value.

Georges Laraque - F - $1,500,000 - Laraque was asked to leave the team in January and will probably be bought out this off-season. This would cost the Canadiens $500,000 in cap room for the next two seasons instead of $1,500,000 for the next year.

Josh Gorges - D - $1,100,000 - He was excellent all season long and was the most consistent defenseman on the team. He had the most time on ice per game on the penalty kill and fourth most at even strength. Gorges finally got the recognition he deserved from the media in the playoffs and will be a huge bargain next season - Great value.

Ryan O'Byrne - D - $941,667 - He was heavily criticized last season but picked up his play this season and seems to be improving. He still isn't much more than a sixth or seventh defenseman but he definitely has the potential to develop into a top four guy in a couple of years - Fair value.

Max Pacioretty - F - $875,000 - He was expected to play with Gionta and Gomez this season but was a big disappointment this season. He is still only 21 years old so has plenty of time to develop but - Fair value.

P.K. Subban - D - $875,000 - At times in the 2010 Playoffs, Subban looked like the best defenseman on the team. He still has a lot to learn but he made tremendous steps this season and will be a top four defenseman as well as a potential Calder candidate in 2010-11 - Great value.

Ben Maxwell - F - $850,000 - He didn't play much with the Canadiens this season but had a pretty good season with the Bulldogs and should make the big team next year as the 12th or 13th forward - Fair value.

Here's what we have when we put all that together:
Great value: 2
Good value: 2
Fair value: 6
Slightly overpaid: 2
Overpaid: 2

Total Cap Hit: $45,582,143 (assuming George Laraque is bought out)

The Montreal Canadiens defense is pretty set for the 2010-11 season with Andrei Markov, Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Ryan O'Byrne and P.K. Subban. This is the same defensive core which played so well in the 2010 Playoffs with one exception: Andrei Markov replacing Marc-Andre Bergeron. Bergeron could still be signed as a 12th forward / 7th defenseman and power play specialist but it probably won't happen unless Gauthier is able to trade Hamrlik or Spacek this summer.

At forward, the Canadiens will resign Maxim Lapierre, Tom Pyatt and Benoit Pouliot for a total of about 3 to 3.5 million which will bring the total cap hit to close to 49 million for 17 players including 10 forwards. Dominic Moore, Glen Metropolit and Mathieu Darche could also be resigned as UFA's for close to the minimum. If we add two forwards at 2 million (whether amongst the three named above or others), the cap hit will now be at around 51 million for 19 players.

This leaves us with the three biggest question marks of the off-season: Tomas Plekanec, Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price. Tomas Plekanec will ask for a contract similar to Ryan Kesler (30 million over 6 years). Both have very similar productions offensively but Kesler has been a nominee for the Selke Trophy in each of the past two years. Based on that, Plekanec is worth about 4.25 to 4.5 million a year in my opinion. Jaroslav Halak will definitely ask for more money than Kari Lehtonen who recently signed a three-year deal worth 10.65M. It will be very difficult to sign Halak for less than 4 million dollars a year unless it is a one or two year deal. Carey Price would be cheaper than Halak but we're still not sure if he's ready to start 60 to 65 games and be the number one goaltender on a playoff team.

Pierre Gauthier will have to make some decisions this summer since he cannot afford to keep all three players and probably can't even afford to keep both Halak and Plekanec unless he makes a trade. One solution would be to deal Price along with either Hamrlik and Spacek for a young NHL-ready player making close to the minimum (and picks or prospects depending on the player) and then to resign Bergeron as a seventh defenseman. The only way to keep both Halak and Price would be to trade a defenseman for a center to replace Plekanec on the second line but that's unlikely to happen.

In my opinion, the most likely possibility is that Carey Price will be dealt either for a center to replace Plekanec or with either Hamrlik or Spacek for a young forward to play with Gionta and Gomez. If the Canadiens stay healthy next season, they've shown us that they are amongst the best teams in the Eastern Conference and 95 to 100 points is certainly within reach for the 2010-11 season.

Until Monday May 31st we are offering our Pro Customized Montreal Canadiens Jerseys (name and number sewn on) with any name you would like for $164.99. Simply go to our online NHL store and use discount code "HABS2010" before checking out.

NHL Playoffs Round 3 Schedule

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Sat, 15 May 2010 01:38:00 +0000

The Philadelphia Flyers completed a historic comeback tonight against the Boston Bruins and will host the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday in game one. That same afternoon the San Jose Sharks will host the Chicago Blackhawks.

Here is the complete schedule for round three:

Eastern Conference
Philadelphia Flyers vs Montreal Canadiens
Sunday, May 16 at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m. VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Tuesday, May 18 at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m. VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Thursday, May 20 at Montreal, 7:00 p.m. VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Saturday, May 22 at Montreal, 3:00 p.m. NBC, CBC, RDS
*Monday, May 24 at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m. VERSUS, CBC, RDS
*Wednesday, May 26 at Montreal, 7:00 p.m. VERSUS, CBC, RDS
*Friday, May 28 at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m. VERSUS, CBC, RDS

Western Conference
San Jose Sharks vs Chicago Blackhawks
Sunday, May 16 at San Jose, 3:00 p.m. NBC, TSN, RDS
Tuesday, May 18 at San Jose, 10:00 p.m. VERSUS, TSN, RDS
Friday, May 21 at Chicago, 8:00 p.m. VERSUS, TSN, RDS
Sunday, May 23 at Chicago, 3:00 p.m. NBC, TSN, RDS
*Tuesday, May 25 at San Jose, 9:00 p.m. VERSUS, TSN, RDS
*Thursday, May 27 at Chicago, 8:00 p.m. VERSUS, TSN, RDS
*Saturday, May 29 at San Jose, 8:00 p.m. VERSUS, TSN, RDS

Get your playoff gear now in our online NHL shop! NHL Pro Customized Jerseys, NHL RBK Premier Jerseys, Player Name T-Shirts and more...

Montreal Canadiens sell out Bell Centre for Game 7!

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Wed, 12 May 2010 01:04:00 +0000

The Montreal Canadiens organization will allow fans to watch the game 7 between the Canadiens and the Pittsburgh Penguins in High Definition at the Bell Centre on Wednesday night. Tickets went on sale at 10:00AM this morning for $7.50 and were sold out within a few hours later.

I know it's only $7.50 but it's still pretty amazing that a team can sell over 21,000 tickets to watch a game that they could watch for free at home or in any bar around the city. The fans in Montreal love their hockey and they know the atmosphere will be unbelievable on Wednesday night at the Bell Centre. Tickets are even selling on Ebay for more than three times the price.

The game 7 between the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals had the highest audience for any NHL game on TSN and was the most watched NHL Conference Quarterfinals game on U.S. cable since 2003. I have to believe that the ratings for Wednesday night's game will be as high. This postseason has been one of the few high points for the NHL in the past decade and things could finally be turning around.

A (Fast) Learning Curve for P.K. Subban

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Fri, 07 May 2010 14:15:00 +0000

P.K. Subban was an emergency call up before game six against the Washington Capitals after the team found out that Jaroslav Spacek's virus was more serious than initially anticipated. Subban recorded three points in his first four NHL Playoffs games adding to the two he recorded earlier this year in his only two NHL regular season games. So far against the Penguins, he has averaged nearly 22 minutes per game and has already passed Ryan O'Byrne and Marc-Andre Bergeron on the depth chart.

In his first seven NHL games, P.K. Subban looked like a 10-year veteran. He was calm defensively, always making the simple play, jumping up at the right time and taking smart chances when he felt he could. However, last night was quite the opposite as he struggled mightily in the first period. Despite being tripped, he missed the puck in the offensive zone which led to the Maxime Talbot breakaway goal and, a little later, he tried to spin and slipped which gave Evgeni Malkin a very good scoring chance. He also looked nervous early on in the defensive zone when making his first pass. Despite all that, Jacques Martin kept him in the game and gave him 22 minutes of ice time and Subban responded beautifully. He settled down, with the help of his teammates, and looked much better in the third period.

P.K. Subban was known for his incredible offensive production with the Belleville Bulls, earning 76 points in 56 games in 2008-09. He was equally impressive with the Hamilton Bulldogs with 53 points in 77 games this season but the most surprising aspect of his play was his defense. I hadn't seen Subban play much before he was called up for those two games in February but I was expecting him to look a little like Yannick Weber. A player who looks to get his slap shot off on the power play at any price and is a liability defensively. Instead, I saw a player who: is calm, moves the puck very well on the power play, understands that Scott Gomez is the player who carries the puck on the Montreal PP and, most importantly, is very solid in the defensive zone. Montreal Canadiens fans are starting to realize how good this guy is and also how much of an impact Hamilton head coach Guy Boucher had on his play.

The soon to be 21-year old still has a lot to learn but, as he said last night after the game: "it's all part of learning, you've go to enjoy that and I did." For the first time in a little while, the Montreal Canadiens have a prospect (excluding goalies) that they can be really excited about and who will be a contender for the Calder Trophy next season.

For those of you looking for a P.K. Subban jersey, you can buy them in our Sports Jerseys Canada online store. Production and delivery for these takes approximately two weeks. All our jerseys are pro customized with numbers and name sewn on the jersey. Until Sunday May 9th we are offering our Montreal Canadiens RBK Premier Jerseys with any name and number for $179.99 if you use coupon code "SJC321".

State of the Toronto Maple Leafs

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Tue, 04 May 2010 21:25:00 +0000

The Toronto Maple Leafs have missed the playoffs in five consecutive seasons after making them in six consecutive years from 1999 to 2004. Their win total has decreased for five straight years and the near future isn't looking much brighter unless Brian Burke can pull some magic this summer.

From 2003 to 2007, the Toronto Maple Leafs made only four selections in the first two rounds of the NHL Entry Draft. That means that they traded six of their ten picks (before making them) in order to improve in the short run. You can even add Tuukka Rask to the list as he was traded for Andrew Raycroft one year after being drafted. Amongst their other picks, Jiri Tlusty was traded this year, John Doherty never made the AHL which leaves Nikolai Kulemin as the only player currently in the Leafs organization. The future of the team is therefore in the hands of late round picks such as Viktor Stalberg, Anton Stralman, John Mitchell and Carl Gunnarsson (all picked in the fifth round or later) as well as draft picks from the last two years which include Luke Schenn and Nazem Kadri.

As we know, the Leafs also traded three of their next four picks in the top two rounds in exchange for Phil Kessel. It certainly is possible to build a team with free agency or with late draft picks but the odds of success are much lower than if they had a number of high draft picks ready to make the jump in the next year or two.

Let's take a look at the 15 players they currently have under contract for next season:

Dion Phaneuf - D - $6,500,000 - The Leafs traded Matt Stajan, Nik Hagman, Jamal Mayers and Ian White in exchange for Phaneuf and others earlier this year. It might not seem like much considering Stajan and Mayers were set to become UFA's but Phaneuf has a heavy contract at 6.5 million. Phaneuf came first in an NHL poll where players were asked who the most overrated player in the league is. I can't say I agree with this assessment but most would agree that he would not receive 6.5 million if he were a UFA this summer - Slightly overpaid.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere - G - $6,000,000 - He was pretty good in his final 15 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs but he has a save percentage of only 0.903 over his last 81 games. That is a pretty big drop from the 0.918 he averaged in 381 games from 2000 to 2008. He is still only 32 years old so he could return to the level he was at a few years ago, but 6 million is still way too much for him - Overpaid.

Phil Kessel - F - $5,400,000 - He is by far the best forward on the Toronto Maple Leafs even though the trade for him looks pretty bad at the moment. His statistics are very similar to Brian Gionta's who signed for 5 million with the Canadiens last off-season. It is therefore a fair salary for him but he could become a bargain in the next year or two if he gets to play with better players - Fair value.

Mike Komisarek - D - $4,500,000 - If I had to take a vote as to who is the most overrated player in NHL, I probably would have selected Mike Komisarek. He is a very intense player but he often gets out of position because he wants to hit, he is amongst the most undisciplined players in the NHL and he has only 62 points in 395 career games - Slighty overpaid.

Tomas Kaberle - D - $4,250,000 - Tomas Kaberle somewhat makes up for the salaries of Dion Phaneuf and Mike Komisarek. He is above average defensively and has 258 points in 377 games since the lockout which made him one of the top ten scoring defensemen in four of the last five seasons - Great value.

Francois Beauchemin - D - $3,800,000 - He averaged 25:27 of ice time per game in 2009-10 including about three minutes per game on the penalty kill as well as the power play. His offensive stats are not particularly good but it was still a good signing by Brian Burke - Good value.

Tyler Bozak - F - $3,725,000 - Tyler Bozak was offered very large bonuses in order to sign with the Maple Leafs and has a very high cap hit because of that. He should develop into a pretty good player but he will be overpaid until his entry level contract runs out after next season - Slightly overpaid.

Jeff Finger - D - $3,500,000 - Jeff Finger is one of the worst signings of the past few years in the NHL but the good news is that the Leafs can stick him in the farm for the next two years. He'll be one of the highest paid players in the AHL but at least it will clear up 3.5 million in cap room - Overpaid.

Luke Schenn - D - $2,975,000 - He is another player with very large rookie bonuses who takes up a lot of room on the salary cap. Schenn was used for over 20 minutes in 13 of his final 30 games and should be used even more in 2010-11. He will also be overpaid until his entry level contract runs out at the end of next season but should be a very good defenseman in the near future - Slightly overpaid.

Mikhail Grabovski - F - $2,900,000 - He signed a contract worth 8.7 million over three years at the end of the 2008-09 season. He recorded 35 points in 59 games in 2009-10 and I don't see him getting much more than 50 points in a season. 2.9 million dollars per season is a lot of money for a 50 points player who is a liability defensively - Slightly overpaid.

Nazem Kadri - F - $1,750,000 - It is pretty safe to assume that Kadri will make the team next season. He was very impressive in the training camp and in his one game with the Maple Leafs this season. His offensive production will depend heavily on his ice time but he could easily record 40 to 50 points in his rookie campaign - Fair value.

Colton Orr - F - $1,000,000 - He was dressed for every game this season but played only 6:51 per game - Fair value.

Viktor Stalberg - F - $850,000 - He was the second best scorer on the Marlies with 33 points despite playing in only 39 games and recorded 14 points in 40 games with the Leafs. He could eventually be a pretty good second line player in the NHL but probably not for another season or two - Fair value.

Luca Caputi - F - $833,333 - Caputi has been a good player in the AHL in each of the past two seasons and looked good late in the year with the Leafs. He is two and a half years younger than both Bozak and Stalberg and could breakout as early as next season - Fair value.

Carl Gunnarsson - D - $800,000 - Gunnarsson looked surprisingly good when he joined the Leafs this season and was rewarded by Ron Wilson. He is still young but any defenseman who plays over 21 minutes and costs only $800,000 is a bargain - Great value.

Here's what you have when you put all that together:
Great value: 2
Good value: 1
Fair value: 5
Slightly overpaid: 5
Overpaid: 2

Total Cap Hit: $47,033,333 (assuming Jeff Finger plays in the AHL in 2010-11)

The Toronto Maple Leafs defense is pretty much set for the 2010-11 season with Dion Phaneuf, Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin, Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson and Tomas Kaberle if he is not traded. In net, playing time will be split between Giguere and Gustavsson. Gustavsson will probably receive a small increase over last year and earn between 1 and 1.5 million depending on the length of his new contract.

On forward, the Leafs should resign Nikolai Kulemin, John Mitchell and Christian Hanson for a total of about 3.5 to 4 million. Add that to Gustavsson's contract and the Leafs will have 19 players under contract for a total of about 52 million dollars. Assuming the salary cap stays approximately the same, it would leave about 5 million to add two forwards and a seventh defenseman. If the Leafs are able to trade Tomas Kaberle for draft picks and good young talent, it could clear an additional 4.25 million and allow them to make a move for top end talent like Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrick Marleau or Alexander Frolov.

It will once again be very difficult for the Toronto Maple Leafs to make the playoffs in 2010-11 and Brian Burke knows that. When he made the trade of Jason Blake and Vesa Toskala for Jean-Sebastien Giguere, he was losing 2 million in cap room in 2010-11 but gaining 4 million in 2011-12. In 2011-12, the Leafs will not only get rid of Giguere's contract but also save on Bozak and Schenn's contracts. Young players like Kessel, Bozak, Kadri, Kulemin, Stalberg, Caputi, Schenn and Gustavsson will improve and the additional cap room will allow them to add another forward for the top two lines at 4 to 5 million. Their success this season will depend on how Brian Burke spends his money in the off-season but I see them finishing with 80 to 85 points.

NHL Second Round Predictions -Eastern Conference

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 20:44:00 +0000

Despite going only 2 for 4 so far in the Eastern Conference, I still had a better record than most experts because of the three first round upsets. The only favourites that managed to win are the Pittsburgh Penguins who will host the Montreal Canadiens on Friday night.

For those of you that have been reading my blog over the past few weeks, you know that I often talk about points per game since March 1st. That statistic has been a great indicator of success over the past few years and has in fact been better than simply using the playoff seeds. Unfortunately, when it comes to this series, the Penguins and Canadiens were within 0.01 of each other in this category. I've mentioned before that the Penguins had an impressive record of 37-15-5 this season when Crosby, Malkin and Gonchar are in the lineup. The Canadiens top seven scorers however missed a combined total of 124 games. Moreover, Jaroslav Halak has a record of 26-13-5 this season which is still very impressive despite facing easier opponents. The Canadiens have a solid 30-19-7 record when they have at least 6 of the following 8 players in the lineup: Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Mike Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Andrei Markov and Jaroslav Halak. Much better than their 9-14-3 record when they are missing three or more of those players.

Despite finishing eighth in the Eastern Conference, the Montreal Canadiens have shown that they can compete with the best teams in the NHL. They have the hottest goaltender in the league and are facing a team that somewhat struggled against the Ottawa Senators. Prediction: Montreal Canadiens in 7 games

The other series, between the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, is one that no one expected. The Bruins led by goalie Tuukka Rask not only upset the Buffalo Sabres but were clearly the better team. The Flyers, on the other hand, looked good but I personally wasn't impressed by them or the Devils in that series. They've had no trouble all year long against the Devils and it was a great match-up for them but I'd be surprised if they can move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. They struggled down the stretch with only 0.95 points per game since the Olympic break and I still wouldn't trust Brian Boucher despite his stellar first round performance. The Boston Bruins will also welcome back Marc Savard into the lineup while the Philadelphia Flyers will be without Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne and Ian Laperriere. I really don't see how the Flyers could defeat the Bruins in this series. Prediction: Boston Bruins in 5 games

Finally, just a reminder that all RBK Premier Jerseys for teams still in the playoffs are available for $99.99 until Sunday May 2nd when you use coupon code "RND2". Please note that delivery can take up to 8 to 10 business days for most jerseys.

NHL - Canadiens Win - Second Round Schedule Released

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 02:49:00 +0000

Jaroslav Halak and the Montreal Canadiens were tremendous tonight as they defeated the Washington Capitals. I'll be back tomorrow with my second round Eastern Conference predictions but here are my Western Conference predictions. For now, here is the schedule for round 2 which kicks off Thursday night with the Red Wings and the Sharks.

I'd also like to offer a special discount for our online store. All RBK Premier Jerseys for teams still in the playoffs are available for $99.99 until Sunday May 2nd when you use coupon code "RND2". Please note that delivery can take 3 to 5 business days for Montreal Canadiens jerseys and 8 to 10 business days for most other jerseys.

2010 EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens
Friday, April 30 at Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m. CBC, RDS, VERSUS
Sunday, May 2 at Pittsburgh, 2:00 p.m. NBC, CBC, RDS
Tuesday, May 4 at Montreal, 7:00 p.m. CBC, RDS, VERSUS
Thursday, May 6 at Montreal, 7:00 p.m. CBC, RDS, VERSUS
*Saturday, May 8 at Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m. CBC, RDS, VERSUS
*Monday, May 10 at Montreal, 7:00 p.m. CBC, RDS, VERSUS
*Wednesday, May 12 at Pittsburgh, TBD CBC, RDS, VERSUS

Boston Bruins vs Philadelphia Flyers
Saturday, May 1 at Boston, 12:30 p.m. NBC, TSN
Monday, May 3 at Boston, 7:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
Wednesday, May 5 at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
Friday, May 7 at Philadelphia, 7:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
*Monday, May 10 at Boston, 7:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
*Wednesday, May 12 at Philadelphia, TBD TSN, VERSUS
*Friday, May 14 at Boston, 7:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS

2010 WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
San Jose Sharks vs Detroit Red Wings
Thursday, April 29 at San Jose, 9:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
Sunday, May 2 at San Jose, 8:00 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
Tuesday, May 4 at Detroit, 7:30 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
Thursday, May 6 at Detroit, 7:30 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
*Saturday, May 8 at San Jose, 10:30 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
*Monday, May 10 at Detroit, 7:30 p.m. TSN, VERSUS
*Wednesday, May 12 at San Jose, TBD TSN, VERSUS

Chicago Blackhawks vs Vancouver Canucks
Saturday, May 1 at Chicago, 8:00 p.m. CBC, VERSUS
Monday, May 3 at Chicago, 9:00 p.m. CBC, VERSUS
Wednesday, May 5 at Vancouver, 9:30 p.m. CBC, VERSUS
Friday, May 7 at Vancouver, 9:30 p.m. CBC, VERSUS
*Sunday, May 9 at Chicago, 8:00 p.m. CBC, VERSUS
*Tuesday, May 11 at Vancouver, 9:30 p.m. CBC, VERSUS
*Thursday, May 13 at Chicago, 8:00 p.m. CBC, VERSUS

NHL Second Round Predictions - Western Conference

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 14:45:00 +0000

The Detroit Red Wings destroyed the Phoenix Coyotes last night and will now face the San Jose Sharks in the second round. You can look back at my first round predictions but I am currently 5 for 7 including my accurate prediction of the Bruins over the Sabres. Not a spectacular record but not too bad considering the were two upsets in the first round and I was right on one of the two I predicted.

So far, teams with an advantage of 0.25 in points per game after March 1st are 2-1 and the last one will depend on the Washington Capitals tonight. Over the last four years they are now 16-3. For the second round, the Detroit Red Wings have an 0.42 advantage over the San Jose Sharks while the Vancouver Canucks have an 0.10 edge over the Chicago Blackhawks.

In my first round predictions article, I also mentioned that at least 15 of the 16 conference finalists in the past four years had a number of things in common. Based on those factors I determined that the four teams who had a chance to make it to the conference finals were: Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks. The Vancouver Canucks were not in that group because they did not have 41 points on the road but they still had 40 so I don't think we can put much weight on this.

The other statistic that is important to look at is goaltenting. Everyone knows it takes a hot goaltender to make it far into the playoffs so in the first round I looked at team's save percentage since March 1st. The Red Wings, Blackhawks, Canucks and Sharks all had weaker goaltending after March 1st than in the rest of the season. Roberto Luongo was by far the weakest of the group in the first round in terms of save percentage and is the only goaltender who can be considered to be on a cold streak.

Last week, I also wrote an article about the length of the first round series and found that teams who played a 7-game series in the first round were 9-20 against teams who played 5 or 6 games series. This would normally give the edge to the San Jose Sharks over the Detroit Red Wings but considering that game seven wasn't very close and that the Coyotes are a much better team than the Avalanche, I don't think it matters much.

One statistic that I didn't mention in my first round analysis is the head to head record in the regular season. The teams with the better head to head record are 4-0 this year so far so I thought I'd look back at last year to see if it's something worth considering. In the first round last year, teams with a better head to head record went 5-1 but only 2-2 in the following rounds. In the 2008 Playoffs, it was 5-3 in the first round and only 2-3 in the following rounds. In other words it probably doesn't mean a whole lot after the first round so I won't consider it.

With all of that said, the Detroit Red Wings should have no problem against the San Jose Sharks while the Canucks and Blackhawks series should be very tight. The Red Wings have been much better in the past two months, despite having to play a game seven in the first round. As for the other series, the statistics probably give a small edge to the Blackhawks but my heart is with the Canucks and I would be surprised if Luongo didn't play a great series. Either way I think it will go to seven games.

Here are my predictions:
Detroit Red Wings in 5 games
Vancouver Canucks in 7 games

Check back tomorrow to see my second round predictions for the Eastern Conference.

NHL embarrasses itself once again

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 16:35:00 +0000

Over the past few months, the NHL has made some strange decisions regarding suspensions, has once again given strange instructions to its referees for the playoffs and now has made strange decisions with video replay.

Video replay was a great addition in the NHL just like it was a great one in the NFL but you need to understand your own rules in order to do it properly. First off, let's take a look at the disallowed goal for "kicking the puck" by Daniel Sedin of the Vancouver Canucks:

Unfortunately I can't find a video of the Nick Foligno goal so I'll focus on the Sedin goal. Now, let's take a look at the DVD that the NHL sent to the teams regarding the kicking the puck rule (fast forward to 53 seconds):

Just to have a little fun now, let's take a look at Mike Murphy's explanation:

I quote Mike Murphy from the video above:
"It had to be propelled some way and we felt it was the skate in not a distinct kicking motion but a kicking motion that made it move back the other way

I now quote rule 49.2 of the NHL rulebook:
"A puck that deflects into the net off an attacking player’s skate who does not use a distinct kicking motion is a legitimate goal."

Right...

Thanks for clearing things up for us Mr Murphy and thanks to Mr Bettman for (as always) agreeing with every single decision his people make.

What makes the NFL so great is that when the referees make a mistake, they admit it, the NFL admits it and they try to make a change to make sure the mistake doesn't happen again.

What does the NHL do? Support the initial decision to make sure that if there is another close call, like the Foligno goal, it is also disallowed and that another mistake is made.

Does the length of a series matter?

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 14:46:00 +0000

Most of us counted out the Philadelphia Flyers before the playoffs started. They had struggled in the past few weeks because of injuries to goaltenders Ray Emery and Michael Leighton. No one trusted Brian Boucher entering the playoffs but he has a 0.940 save percentage so far and is a big reason why the Flyers defeated the New Jersey Devils in 5.

The Boston Bruins were pretty heavy underdogs before the series started, and although some thought they could upset the Buffalo Sabres, not many thought they'd have a chance to do it in five.

The Colorado Avalanche, Nashville Predators, Los Angeles Kings and Phoenix Coyotes are impressing a lot of people and have all forced at least a game six. Is that good or bad news for the Sharks, Blackhawks, Canucks and Red Wings?

You might have no idea where I'm going with all that but there is something behind it. I decided to look at some statistics over the past 22 seasons to see if the length of first round series means anything for the second round. Here are the second round records for each first round series length:

	W	L
4 games	11	13
5 games	20	18
6 games	38	29
7 games	19	28

As strange as it may seem, the famous cliché that a team is better prepared because they faced adversity early in the playoffs is in fact true. However, if they went to a game seven, they're in trouble because they're tired. Teams that win their series in six games are the teams that have by far the best record for the second round.

A 38-29 record is pretty nice for teams that won in six games but many of those losses may have been when two teams that won in six were facing each other. I therefore decided to look at all the records individually to better show the importance of first round series length:

	4 games	5 games	6 games	7 games
4 games	0 - 0	2 - 2	8 - 8	1 - 3
5 games	2 - 2	4 - 4	6 - 8	8 - 4
6 games	8 - 8	8 - 6	10 - 10	12 - 5
7 games	3 - 1	4 - 8	5 - 12	7 - 7

None of the first round series will end in four so we can ignore the first column and first row of that chart for this year. As you can see, teams that win a game seven in round one are 9-20 against teams that won in five or six. That's a pretty surprising disadvantage for teams that are forced to play a game seven.

To come back to my initial points, the Flyers don't have a better chance to beat the Capitals (or Penguins) in round two because they won in five and if the Bruins win in five, they won't have a better chance of winning in round two. The games that will be more important than you think are all the sixth games in the Western Conference. A win in game six not only means you move on to round two but also means your chances of going to the conference finals could be twice as good.

On a final note, you can use coupon code "SJC731" to get 15% off our RBK Platinum Practice Jerseys and all available options (socks, numbers and logo) until Sunday April 25.

NHL - What happened to the Selke Trophy?

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 19:52:00 +0000

The Frank J. Selke Trophy has supposedly been awarded to the forward who "best excels in the defensive aspects of the game" since the 1977-78 season. Bob Gainey was the first recipient of that trophy when he had only 31 points in 66 games and was the 14th best scorer on the Monreal Canadiens. Gainey also won the next three Selke Trophies, never finishing amongst the top eight scorers on the Canadiens.

In more recent years, the trophy has been awarded to Pavel Datsyuk twice (97 points both times) and Rod Brind'Amour twice (70 and 82 points). In years before that, players like Jere Lehtinen, Mike Peca, John Madden and Kris Draper all won the award. They all deserved the award except they all seemed to win it in seasons where they had their best goal production or where they scored a few shorthanded goals.

The reason I'm mentioning all this is that the three nominees for the 2009-10 Selke Trophy are:
-Pavel Datsyuk: 27 goals and 43 assists, leading scorer on the Detroit Red Wings.
-Ryan Kesler: 25 goals and 50 assists, 3rd leading scorer on the Vancouver Canucks.
-Jordan Staal: 21 goals and 28 assists, 4th leading scorer on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

I know all three of these players are very good defensively and are amongst the best two-way forwards in the NHL but are they the ones who "best excel in the defensive aspects of the game"?

One player who has never really been considered as a Selke candidate is Jay McClement of the St. Louis Blues. McClement led all forwards with 3:44 of shorthanded time on ice per game, 21 seconds ahead of Todd Marchant who came in 2nd and 24 seconds ahead of Jordan Staal in 3rd. The Blues, Ducks and Penguins all committed about the same number of minor penalties but McClement was used more than the other two. You might argue that there is much more talent on the Penguins than the Blues but the Blues led the league in penalty kill with 86.8% while the Penguins were ninth.

Moreover, Jay McClement was one of only four regular forwards with the Blues who did not have a negative +/- and the leader was his line-mate Alex Steen. Basically, you have a forward who is amongst the best on his team in +/-, leads the NHL in shorthanded time on ice and is on the top penalty kill in the NHL but who isn't even being considered for the best defensive forward award. It seems that the only reason this is the case is because he has only 29 points in 82 games.

In my opinion, Ryan Kesler will win the award this season, and he deserves it, but it's unfortunate that it would be because he had his best offensive season and not because of his defensive play.

NHL Playoffs Refereeing

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 15:42:00 +0000

Refereeing in every sport has always been criticized and probably always will be, but it is particularly the case in the NHL. Hockey is one of the toughest sports to referee but many things lead me to believe that the NHL referees can be good, they just don't want to be or someone isn't letting them be good.

In last year's NHL Playoffs, here was an average of 7.9 power play opportunities per game, a small drop from the 8.3 in the regular season. This season, there has actually been a small increase with 7.9 power play opportunities per game as opposed to only 7.4 during the regular season. These numbers seem to indicate that referees aren't any different in the NHL Playoffs but most would agree that it's not the case. The playoffs are much more intense than the regular season and players commit more infractions, but the number of power play opportunities remains the same.

A better statistic to illustrate my point is to look at power play opportunities earned in the third period as opposed to the rest of the game. So far in the playoffs, there have been 1,240 minutes of hockey played and 440 of those have been in the third period and in overtime, which is equal to about 35.5%. In those 1,240 minutes, there have been 157 power play opportunities but only 46 of them came in the third period and in overtime, which is equal to only 29.3%. I realize that it is a relatively small sample size but it is pretty remarkable that there have been 17% fewer power play opportunities in the third period and overtime than in the first two periods. It is especially interesting considering that all the games so far have been very close ones so there should be at least as penalties later in games. A number of these power play opportunities also came in the last 45 seconds when there was either a two-goal difference or when a team would do anything to prevent a goal so the difference should be even bigger.

Why is it that there are more penalties called in the first and second periods than in the third period? NHL referees are the best at what they do and they see a lot of things that others wouldn't, but for some reason, they call fewer penalties later in games. One has to believe that the instructions are coming from somewhere up top.

Referees will always miss some calls and make some bad ones but it's unacceptable that the general trends are:
-Same number of penalties in the playoffs when the play is much more intense and there should be more penalties.
-Fewer penalties in the third period and overtime than in the first two periods.

It somewhat makes sense that the NHL doesn't want a game to be decided on a borderline call, but, because of that, games are often decided either on missed calls or on automatic calls: too many men on the ice, delay of game for shooting the puck over the board, slashing and breaking the stick or high stick with blood.

As much as I love NHL playoff hockey and as exciting as it is to watch, the NHL would be a much more respected league if it fixed a few things in its game and this is one of them. Everyone knows it, pretty much everyone agrees with it, but the NHL doesn't want to do anything about it.

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The Kessel Trade

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 13:00:00 +0000

There's been a lot of talk about the Phil Kessel trade in the last few days with the Boston Bruins locking up the second pick overall in the 2010 NHL Draft. In that trade, the Bruins also received a second round pick in 2010 and a first round pick in 2011.

Brian Burke has said a number of times over the past few days that he would still make this trade right now. To me, it seems a little far-fetched to be saying that when you could have had the number two overall pick in the NHL Draft. I'll be the first one to say that prospects and picks are often overrated but in this case, I don't think they are. Let's take a look at the list of forwards selected in the first two picks of the NHL Draft from 1997 to 2008 and their statistics in the 2009-2010 season:

	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Alex Ovechkin	60	44	52	96	1.60
Daniel Sedin	49	17	47	64	1.31
Sidney Crosby	67	45	41	86	1.28
Joe Thornton	66	17	62	79	1.20
Steven Stamkos	67	42	38	80	1.19
Ilya Kovalchuk	60	35	34	69	1.15
Patrick Kane	66	26	49	75	1.14
Evgeni Malkin	61	23	46	69	1.13
Dany Heatley	66	36	36	72	1.09
Patrick Marleau	66	40	30	70	1.06
Eric Staal	55	21	33	54	0.98
Vincent Lecavalier	67	19	41	60	0.90
Rick Nash	66	28	29	57	0.86
Jason Spezza	46	15	22	37	0.80
Bobby Ryan	67	28	24	52	0.78
Jordan Staal	68	19	26	45	0.66
James Van Riemsdyk	63	14	19	33	0.52
David Legwand	68	10	24	34	0.50
Patrik Stefan	0	0	0	0	0.00

In 2009-2010, Phil Kessel recorded 55 points in 70 games which is equal to 0.79 points per game. Kessel would therefore rank 15th out of 19 on that list. If we look at the names near the bottom of that list, Jordan Staal and James Van Riemsdyk are both younger than Kessel and most would argue that they will be as good or better than Kessel in a couple of years. In other words, of all the top two forwards chosen since 1997, Phil Kessel is better than only two (Legwand and Stefan) and pretty similar to three others (Bobby Ryan, Jordan Staal and James Van Riemsdyk).

If Hall or Seguin turns out to be like one of those three players, Boston would still get the edge because of the additional picks that they received in the trade. The Toronto Maple Leafs therefore have about an 11% chance (2 out of 19) of winning this trade. You can even assume that John Tavares will be better than Phil Kessel if you want and make it an even 10%.

I'm not saying it's a bad trade, because if the Leafs had finished in 25th or better they probably would have gotten the edge. In all honesty, if I was Brian Burke, I probably would have made this trade when he made it, but there's no way I'd do it now knowing what we know.

NHL - Wins Against Playoff Teams

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:10:00 +0000

Every game matters in the NHL, whether it's against the first place Capitals or the last place Oilers, but in the playoffs, it's only about the 16 best teams. Moreover, some teams may have boosted their regular season record by playing in a weak division so I thought it would be interesting to see which playoff teams have the best record against other playoff teams.

The other thing I did is give a half win and a half loss for every game that went to overtime or shootout. The reason I did that is that there's no shootout or 4 on 4 hockey in the playoffs so it doesn't make sense to include them. I split them evenly because, if two teams are even after 60 minutes, they should have an equal chance of winning the game in overtime and I can't just remove that game from the statistics. Here are the results I got:

	W	L	Win %
Washington Capitals	23	15	60.5%
Vancouver Canucks	24	16	60.0%
Detroit Red Wings	25.5	17.5	59.3%
New Jersey Devils	24.5	17.5	58.3%
San Jose Sharks	25	18	58.1%
Chicago Blackhawks	23.5	18.5	56.0%
Ottawa Senators	22.5	20.5	52.3%
Buffalo Sabres	22.5	22.5	50.0%
Phoenix Coyotes	20	21	48.8%
Los Angeles Kings	19.5	21.5	47.6%
Pittsburgh Penguins	18	23	43.9%
Colorado Avalanche	16.5	21.5	43.4%
Nashville Predators	17.5	23.5	42.7%
Montreal Canadiens	17.5	25.5	40.7%
Philadelphia Flyers	16.5	24.5	40.2%
Boston Bruins	17	27	38.6%

Make what you want of this, they're only statistics but it's a little worrisome to see the Pittsburgh Penguins at 43.9%. The Vancouver Canucks are also a team that you can't underestimate as they are number one in the Western Conference in these standings.

NHL Playoffs - Fantasy Player Projections

noreply@blogger.com (Phil Dussault) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 02:09:00 +0000

Fantasy pools are becoming more and more popular for the playoffs so I figure I could help out a little by making my own projections. To do this, I used a combination of Vegas odds and my own predictions to come up with a number of projected games for each team. After that I used season statistics and simply applied points per game averages to every player. Here are the results:

Player	Team	Pos	Proj Pts	Player	Team	Pos	Proj Pts
Alex Ovechkin	WAS	LW	25.74	Ruslan Fedotenko	PIT	LW	6.23
Sidney Crosby	PIT	C	22.34	Kris Letang	PIT	D	6.14
Nicklas Backstrom	WAS	C	20.94	Tyler Myers	BUF	D	6.13
Alexander Semin	WAS	LW	19.56	Jason Spezza	OTT	C	6.09
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	C	19.08	Andy Greene	NJ	D	6.07
Henrik Sedin	VAN	C	17.94	Jason Demers	SJ	D	6.01
Daniel Sedin	VAN	LW	17.73	Paul Stastny	COL	C	5.95
Mike Green	WAS	D	17.23	Patrice Bergeron	BOS	C	5.95
Joe Thornton	SJ	C	16.45	Brian Rolston	NJ	RW	5.92
Patrick Kane	CHI	RW	15.02	Wojtek Wolski	PHO	LW	5.92
Patrick Marleau	SJ	C	14.78	Joe Corvo	WAS	D	5.88
Dany Heatley	SJ	LW	14.60	Tom Poti	WAS	D	5.83
Ilya Kovalchuk	NJ	LW	14.32	Dustin Byfuglien	CHI	RW	5.80
Henrik Zetterberg	DET	LW	13.81	Dave Bolland	CHI	C	5.74
Sergei Gonchar	PIT	D	13.39	Brooks Orpik	PIT	D	5.68
Mike Knuble	WAS	RW	13.06	Jochen Hecht	BUF	C	5.57
Zach Parise	NJ	LW	12.96	Ryan Smyth	LA	LW	5.53
Brooks Laich	WAS	C	12.86	Jason Arnott	NSH	C	5.50
Pavel Datsyuk	DET	C	12.78	David Krejci	BOS	C	5.49
Tomas Fleischmann	WAS	C	12.57	Jeff Carter	PHI	C	5.42
Jonathan Toews	CHI	C	12.53	Sami Salo	VAN	D	5.41
Marian Hossa	CHI	RW	12.53	Brent Seabrook	CHI	D	5.38
Ryan Kesler	VAN	C	12.02	Jeff Schultz	WAS	D	5.36
Duncan Keith	CHI	D	11.78	Jordan Leopold	PIT	D	5.33
Johan Franzen	DET	C	11.36	Matt Bradley	WAS	RW	5.30
Patrick Sharp	CHI	C	11.27	Logan Couture	SJ	C	5.26
Dan Boyle	SJ	D	11.14	Kevin Bieksa	VAN	D	5.26
Joe Pavelski	SJ	C	11.11	Tomas Plekanec	MON	C	5.13
Alexei Ponikarovsky	PIT	LW	10.78	Raffi Torres	BUF	LW	5.09
Alex Burrows	VAN	LW	10.73	Chris Stewart	COL	RW	5.07
Chris Kunitz	PIT	LW	10.62	Drew Doughty	LA	D	5.03
Patrik Elias	NJ	LW	10.59	Drew Stafford	BUF	RW	5.01
Travis Zajac	NJ	C	10.46	Martin Erat	NSH	RW	4.98
Ryane Clowe	SJ	LW	10.15	Jason Williams	DET	RW	4.98
Jordan Staal	PIT	C	9.92	Mike Richards	PHI	C	4.97
Tomas Holmstrom	DET	LW	9.66	Matthew Lombardi	PHO	C	4.95
Brendan Morrison	WAS	C	9.65	Patrick Eaves	DET	RW	4.94
Jamie Langenbrunner	NJ	RW	9.64	Steve Bernier	VAN	RW	4.90
Eric Fehr	WAS	RW	9.61	Shane Doan	PHO	RW	4.89
Bill Guerin	PIT	RW	9.58	Patric Hornqvist	NSH	RW	4.80
Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	RW	9.41	Milan Hejduk	COL	RW	4.80
Tim Connolly	BUF	C	9.32	Dustin Brown	LA	RW	4.77
Valtteri Filppula	DET	C	9.29	Boyd Gordon	WAS	C	4.72
Eric Belanger	WAS	C	9.05	Steve Sullivan	NSH	LW	4.68
Derek Roy	BUF	C	9.03	Darren Helm	DET	C	4.67
Alex Goligoski	PIT	D	8.90	Danny Briere	PHI	C	4.64
Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	D	8.72	John Carlson	WAS	D	4.64
Mason Raymond	VAN	LW	8.49	Mike Cammalleri	MON	LW	4.63
Jason Pominville	BUF	RW	7.92	Zdeno Chara	BOS	D	4.59
Brian Rafalski	DET	D	7.86	J.P. Dumont	NSH	RW	4.58
Todd Bertuzzi	DET	RW	7.83	Scott Gomez	MON	C	4.55
Thomas Vanek	BUF	LW	7.82	Andrei Markov	MON	D	4.54
Kris Versteeg	CHI	RW	7.80	Brian Gionta	MON	RW	4.53
Pascal Dupuis	PIT	LW	7.79	Simon Gagne	PHI	LW	4.53
Daniel Cleary	DET	RW	7.76	Jarret Stoll	LA	C	4.50
Devin Setoguchi	SJ	RW	7.51	Mark Recchi	BOS	RW	4.43
Pavol Demitra	VAN	RW	7.51	Chris Pronger	PHI	D	4.41
Jason Chimera	WAS	LW	7.41	Alexander Frolov	LA	LW	4.40
Mathieu Perreault	WAS	C	7.29	Kyle Wellwood	VAN	C	4.38
Alexander Edler	VAN	D	7.26	Lee Stempniak	PHO	RW	4.37
Christian Ehrhoff	VAN	D	7.23	Adam Burish	CHI	RW	4.31
Michael Grabner	VAN	RW	7.23	Mike Fisher	OTT	C	4.30
Troy Brouwer	CHI	RW	7.18	Jannik Hansen	VAN	RW	4.19
Anze Kopitar	LA	C	6.90	Ben Lovejoy	PIT	D	4.15
Manny Malhotra	SJ	C	6.79	Shea Weber	NSH	D	4.15
Dainius Zubrus	NJ	C	6.78	Matt Duchene	COL	C	4.14
Niklas Kronwall	DET	D	6.69	Justin Williams	LA	RW	4.13
David Clarkson	NJ	RW	6.68	John Madden	CHI	C	4.08
Daniel Alfredsson	OTT	RW	6.50	Marco Sturm	BOS	LW	4.06
Andrew Ladd	CHI	LW	6.49	Karl Alzner	WAS	D	4.05
Tyler Kennedy	PIT	C	6.48	Tomas Kopecky	CHI	RW	3.97
Paul Martin	NJ	D	6.40	Rob Niedermayer	NJ	C	3.97
Matt Cooke	PIT	LW	6.30	Kris Draper	DET	C	3.97
Tyler Ennis	BUF	C	6.28	Kent Huskins	SJ	D	3.92
Rob Blake	SJ	D	6.26	Mike Rupp	PIT	C	3.89