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2022 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

2023-02-11T17:05:00.001-08:00

2022 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

I got both title games wrong last week, but really feel like emotionally I got them correct. The 49ers QB injuries were unfortunate, so we have no idea how that game would have turned out. The Eagles did have the luck of the 4th down conversion (that was not a catch by DSmith), and the turnover on the play Purdy got hurt, so it was looking down for SF regardless. And I don’t know what happened in KC other than the team with the better coach and QB won. A corollary we have to remember more often. And I may ignore it in about five minutes.

So for this game, I don’t know. My confidence level for this game is low, a range of outcomes would make sense to me. Super Bowls are normally lower scoring and have nervous starts. But the Eagles have been fast starters all year with dynamic and consistent running options that have been fairly matchup proof. The Chiefs score at will, and again, have the better QB. For much of NFL history, the better team, especially on the lines, has won the title. That would be Philly, by a fair margin. They also happen to have better skill possession players, by a fair margin even after accounting for Travis Kelce. But in the last twenty years, the team with the better HC/QB has more often than not (often named Belicheck and Brady). That’d be KC, and that has already worked in the last half decade versus a SF team that isn’t that unlike this Eagles team. Here’s the difference, and why I’m leaning Philly.

Hurts is something else. His dynamic nature is going to be a big problem for a leaky KC defense, especially if Chris Jones is weak/sick or Snead isn’t really 100%. He has been hurt, but got two weeks off, then after 1 game a bye, then two relatively easy games where he didn’t have to take a lot of hits/contact. He should be closer to week 6ish Hurts than week 18 Hurts.

The Philly pass rush was already a strength. With the Chiefs O-Line not quite living up to its impact on the payroll, and Mahomes still having some lingering effects of the ankle injury, I think that plays a huge role. They signed a bunch of rushers in their prime or post prime to win a title. Now’s the time for them to ring up 6-8 sacks.

The Eagles were 16-1 with Hurts as a starter, and were rolling as the best team in the NFL only 6 weeks ago in a division that sent 3/4 teams to the playoffs and the 4th team was only eliminated with 1 week to go. Strength of team, depth, and they destroyed teams when they won. The Chiefs have won close games, and that’s a skill. But I think the talent edge takes over here. Finally, while Andy is fairly rated as the better and more experienced coach, I actually like Sirianni’s game management, timeout and challenge use, and general aggressiveness more. I like them to have some long drives that chew up time, yards, morale, and produce touchdowns instead of field goals.

So I’m taking Philly, in a relatively high scoring game for a Super Bowl. I’m glad the line is under 3 either way, because there’s no way I could bet against Mahomes in a Super Bowl and deal with more points than that.

Eagles +1.5 over Chiefs, 34-30

Props I like:

Hurts will score a TD - Just feels like that goal line push is happening once.

Goedert over on yards - He had a really high yards per game before getting hurt, and they haven’t had to use him since he came back. This number has been really low everywhere I’ve seen it because of that perceived dip.

Travis Kelce over 25 yards in each half - That seems like free money.

There will be a special teams TD - Good returners, shaking kicking, really good secondaries at returning turnovers.

Miles Sanders over rushing yards - Wherever it is set (seeing it around 72 many places), that’s too low.

Chiefs under rushing yards - Just seems like the plan will be Mahomes and running back screens (which count as passing, not rushing).

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 0-2

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 168-97

By Spread: 133-132

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2055-1134
By Spread: 1678-1605

2022 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Championship Round

2023-01-29T10:23:00.002-08:00

2022 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Conference Championship Round

49ers +3 over Eagles, 24-23

-By far and away the tougher game to predict (give everyone the four teams in September and surprise them with that assertion). Both teams are super tough, well built, and have turned unexpected QB situations (that are cheaply paid) into major successes. But SF has better health and consistency going into this game. Philly had bigger heights this season, and can absolutely reach them again and win this game. But SF is in the midst of their roll, with slightly better defense, special teams, and coaching. I would bet on it to continue.

Bengals +2 over Chiefs, 31-20

-This is only somewhat about Mahomes's health. I think he likely will be either ginger on the ankle, or will grow worse during the game. But either way, the Bengals have had their number. 3 wins in two years. Absolutely "don't give a shit" attitude about facing the Chiefs. Reid+Mahomes have the skill and mystique versus most teams to out execute and pull off close wins. This year, with a more limited Chiefs team, that has been enough. But the Bengals are not given to becoming lost in the mystique, and have enough skill and experience to overcome. This team is young and hungry and filled with vitriol. At some point attribution catches up with KC, and I think it's here.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 168-95

By Spread: 133-130

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2055-1132
By Spread: 1678-1603

2022 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Divisional Round

2023-01-20T12:55:00.001-08:00

2022 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Divisional Round

Jags +9 over Chiefs, 27-31

-I wish I had the guts to pick a full upset, but having the underdog to cover is as far as I am willing to go. The Jags can score and move the ball and the Chiefs, while still the Chiefs, haven’t quite been at that elite level this year.

Eagles -7.5 over Giants, 30-22

-I honestly don’t know what to do with this game. Any more points, and I’d probably take the Giants. One of two things could happen. The Eagles could be flat, injured, and still rusty from the bye week and lose this game. However, I think it’s more likely that they’re healthy and closer to the team that they were for the first 12 weeks of the season.

Bengals +5.5 over Bills, 27-30

-I honestly don’t know who wins, so the score prediction is a toss up. I am taking the Bengals and the 5.5 for a couple of reasons. First, they are the reigning AFC champions, with Joe Burrow, and have honestly looked like a better team than the Bills over the past 2 months. Second, I have no idea what to make of the Bills. The combination of Allen’s performance since his elbow injury and the general weirdness of their past 2 months makes it kind of impossible to predict whether this (admittedly more talented team) will win or by enough.

49ers -4 over Cowboys, 31-20

-I truly think the Cowboys are fake. What happened to Tampa was sad, because it really wasn’t against a good team. Maybe it will be proven wrong and they will beat San Francisco. However, San Francisco matches Dallas’s flashy talent on defense, but raises it with better coaching and consistency. On offense, they are slightly more skilled at each skill position. And the head coach matchup isn’t even close.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 3-3

By Spread: 2-4

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 165-94

By Spread: 129-130

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2052-1131
By Spread: 1674-1603

2022 NFL Week 19 Predictions: Wild Card Round

2023-01-13T17:24:00.005-08:00

2022 NFL Week 19 Predictions: Wild Card Round

49ers -9.5 over Seahawks, 27-10

-The Seahawks have had a nice season. But they are running into the big physical monster team.

Chargers -2 over Jaguars, 27-20

-I know a lot of people are going the other way with this pick. And believe me, I am frustrated that Staley played his starters last week for so long. However, I think Mike Williams will be more missed next week versus Kansas City. There are a lot of similarities between these teams and the Jaguars do have an experience advantage at head coach. However, the Chargers have an experience advantage across the defense and skill positions.

Bills -13 over Dolphins, 34-6

-I think this is going to be an absolute butt-whooping. Skylar just can’t keep up with Josh.

Vikings -3 over Giants, 27-23

-It comes down to whether you believe winning close games is random or a skill. In this case, that means you either believe regression is coming or a skill will be in repeated use. I’m leaning toward the latter. The best player in this game (Jefferson) also happens to represent the Giants’ biggest weakness: they cannot produce points or yards dynamically.

Bengals -8.5 over Ravens, 31-13

-I almost feel bad for the Ravens, because I would love to see this contest at full strength. Almost.

Bucs +2.5 over Cowboys, 24-23

-Thomas. Edward. Patrick. Brady. The Cowboys lost badly to them in Week 1 and while that’s a long time ago, the Bucs are restarting their season right now and none of the rest of it matters. Are they a perfect team? No. But they have enough with a lot of SB champions on the roster. And these Cowboys are fake. I would even celebrate the Cowboys winning. While that would make this selection wrong, it would set up an even bigger fall for Dallas next week.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 12-4

By Spread: 10-6

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 162-91

By Spread: 127-126

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2049-1128
By Spread: 1672-1509

2022 NFL Week 18 Predictions

2023-01-06T14:30:00.001-08:00

2022 NFL Week 18 Predictions

Chiefs -9.5 over Raiders, 37-27

-Chiefs need this to get the #1 seed as much as I wish it wasn’t so.

Jaguars -6.5 over Titans, 31-17

-I actually feel super confident about this. The Titans are just in shambles.

Colts -3 over Texans, 16-10

-Bryce Young, baby.

Vikings -6 over Bears, 31-10

-One team that needs it and one team that isn’t playing Fields.

Bengals -9 over Ravens, 31-13

-Hard to gauge the emotional impact for Cincinnati and Buffalo this weekend. However, Cincy probably wants to secure a home game in the playoffs and get sharp again.

Dolphins -3.5 over Jets, 24-16

-Flacco is involved…but so is Skylar. So, yeah I don’t know.

Panthers +3.5 over Saints, 17-16

-Yeah, I have no idea so I am just going to take the 3.5.

Patriots +7 over Bills, 21-24

-I’m just taking the points for a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs.

Falcons -4 over Bucs, 20-12

-The Bucs don’t need this game and they have shown the ability to lose a ton of games even when trying.

Steelers -2.5 over Browns, 17-13

-Considering Pittsburgh needs to win this game to have a shot at the playoffs, this line makes no sense.

Seahawks -6 over Rams, 24-6

-Two teams just going in different directions.

Broncos -3 over Chargers, 16-10

-Chargers don’t have a lot to play for, so I wouldn’t put any stock in this game at all.

Eagles -10 over Giants, 28-6

-This line is probably going to move radically, but the Eagles should destroy what should be mostly 2nd unit players from New York.

49ers -14 over Cardinals, 33-3

-see (Eagles vs Giants).

Cowboys -7 over Commanders, 31-10

-It’ll be nice to see Sam Howell and then it’ll be nice to see Sam Howell throw the ball to the other team.

Packers -4.5 over Lions, 31-24

-I have no idea why this game isn’t being played concurrently or preceding the Seattle game. It’s a huge disadvantage for Seattle. However, I will say if there was a team to still try hard even though they know they’ve already been eliminated, it is the kneecap-biting Detroit Lions. Oh, and I still have Aaron Rodgers winning this game.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 7-7

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 149-87

By Spread: 117-120

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2037-1124
By Spread: 1662-1503

2022 NFL Week 17 Predictions

2022-12-31T18:50:00.001-08:00

2022 NFL Week 17 Predictions

Eagles -5.5 over Saints, 28-17

-Eagles can score and the Saints can’t; the Eagles also really need this game…actually the Saints do, too, but just aren’t as good.

Lions -6 over Bears, 31-10

-Lions are a different team at home. And Fields looks like he’s on the “don’t get hurt in the last two games” plan.

Bucs -3.5 over Panthers, 24-18

-Bucs move one step closer to a painful division title and one of the best opportunities to bet against a home playoff team in a while.

Chiefs -12.5 over Broncos, 27-3

-Is that too many points to project for the Broncos?

Giants -5.5 over Colts, 20-6

-The coaching mismatch is tremendous here. So is the execution difference.

Jaguars -3 over Texans, 27-23

-Honestly, this is probably a stay away. The Jags say they are playing everyone, but I’ll believe it when I see it. One ankle turned by a star, or if it becomes a physical game in the 4th quarter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Doug pull everyone.

Falcons -6 over Cardinals, 23-3

-This might be the lowest total I have ever predicted in a week across all of the games. But the Cardinals are sitting Hopkins and David Blough is involved (plus the Falcons are technically alive).

Commanders -1.5 over Browns, 20-12

-I guess. Whatever. Not watching a second of this game.

Patriots -2.5 over Dolphins, 24-20

-This isn’t really a vote of confidence in the Pats (and heaven knows Miami in the last month of the season is a personal hell for them). However, with not Tua and the team reeling, it just makes too much sense to grab the Pats when it’s not 3.

Jets -1.5 over Seahawks, 17-13

-Seahawks are having trouble scoring and the Jets aren’t a good team to see when that’s your problem. The return of Mike White means a return to the winner circle.

49ers -9.5 over Raiders, 33-3

-Truly unwatchable…except the 49ers are my eliminator pick.

Chargers -6.5 over Rams, 26-14

-Respect to the Rams for actually executing an offense last week, but this probably is a return to normal. The Chargers have strung together several competent weeks, Herbert is actually due for a big game, and the Chargers are getting several players back from injury now.

Packers -3 over Vikings, 27-23

-This isn’t technically a prime time game, but apparently 97% of the country is going to see it. Those typically don’t end well for Kirk Cousins. Are the Packers good? Probably not. Do you want to bet against Aaron Rodgers going runner runner and getting in the playoffs? I’ll let you do that.

Ravens -2.5 over Steelers, 14-10

-Another truly unwatchable game, but this one may feature several injuries and beefs.

Bills -1 over Bengals, 33-27

-I respect the Bengals a lot and they’ve proved their mettle against really good teams. But the Bills at full strength are still the best team in the NFL and need this a lot more.

Record Week 15:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 6-8

Record Week 16:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 9-6

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 139-83

By Spread: 110-113

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2027-1120

By Spread: 1655-1496

2022 NFL Week 16 Predictions

2022-12-31T18:49:00.002-08:00

2022 NFL Week 16 Predictions

Saints +3.5 over Browns (outright)

Ravens -6.5 over Falcons

Bengals -3 over Pats

Bills -8.5 over Bears

Viks -5 over Giants

Lions -2 over Panthers

Chiefs -10 over Seahawks

Texans +3 over Titans (just cover)

49ers -6.5 over Commanders

Cowboys -4 over Eagles

Broncos -3 over Rams

Raiders +2.5 over Steelers (outright)

Fins -3.5 over Packers

Bucs -8 over Cards

Chargers -4.5 over Colts

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 6-8

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 129-78

By Spread: 101-107

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2017-1115
By Spread: 1646-1490

2022 NFL Week 15 Predictions

2022-12-16T19:25:00.005-08:00

2022 NFL Week 15 Predictions

Vikings -3.5 over Colts, 27-16

-A good team versus a bad team. Sometimes it’s that simple.

Ravens +3 over Browns, 24-22

-I know they don’t have Lamar, but I’ll take Baltimore on sheer principle.

Bills -7 over Dolphins, 20-10

-Miami is listing a little bit and the weather is going to be really bad.

Falcons +4 over Saints, 23-24

-The Saints should probably win this game, but that’s too many points for such a crappy division.

Eagles -8.5 over Bears, 32-17

-Good night.

Jaguars +4 over Cowboys, 28-31

-The Jags continue to score more than expected every week. Just cover, baby.

Lions -1 over Jets, 27-20

-Jets are too injured and Zach Wilson is involved.

Panthers -3 over Steelers, 24-13

-No Pickett and the Panthers are still alive for their division.

Chiefs -14 over Texans, 34-13

-I’m pretty sure Mahomes could take me and my cousins and score on the Texans right now.

Patriots +1.5 over Raiders, 23-21

-Don’t bet this. Because I don’t know. No one knows. Anyone who tells you they know with New England is lying right now.

It’s Rypien vs. McCoy, so have the self respect to not pick, bet, or watch this game.

Chargers -3 over Titans, 28-16

-Chargers are about to rip off 5 in a row and go to the playoffs.

Bengals -3.5 over Bucs, 31-17

-The Bucs are broken.

Commanders -4.5 over Giants, 20-13

-The Giants have been going in the wrong direction for about a month now. And while Washington’s offense hasn’t been pretty, at least it is functional.

Packers -7 over Rams, 24-10

-Aaron Rodgers is rested and the Packers aren’t technically dead yet.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 4-8

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 119-74

By Spread: 95-99

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2007-1111
By Spread: 1640-1482

2022 NFL Week 14 Predictions

2022-12-11T05:39:00.003-08:00

2022 NFL Week 14 Predictions

Busy week. Not feeling well. Here are this week’s picks in column form. Rest assured that the sass will return next week!

Ravens +1.5 over Steelers, 24-22

Vikings +2 over Lions, 31-28

Titans -3.5 over Jaguars, 26-20

Eagles -7 over Giants, 31-16

Bills -10 over Jets, 29-13

Bengals -5.5 over Browns, 27-20

Cowboys -17.5 over Texans, 34-10

Chiefs -8.5 over Broncos, 24-12

Bucs +3.5 over 49ers, 24-23

Seahawks -4.5 over Panthers, 27-16

Chargers +3.5 over Dolphins, 34-31

Cardinals +2 over Patriots, 27-19

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 5-8

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 112-69

By Spread: 91-91

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2000-1106
By Spread: 1636-1474

2022 NFL Week 13 Predictions

2022-12-03T15:13:00.001-08:00

2022 NFL Week 13 Predictions

Eagles -4.5 over Titans, 30-22

-Titans are a good team that plays everything close. However, versus really good teams they have a ceiling that can’t match the Eagles.

Packers -3.5 over Bears, 24-20

-This is assuming both QBs play and are reasonably healthy. The Packers own the Bears.

Jaguars pk over Lions, 34-31

-Just take the over. Don’t bet on a money line. Please I beg you, don’t bet on a money line.

Texans +8 over Browns, 16-20

-Listen, the Browns should win this game. But if there was ever a game to stay away from because of an emotional or thematic reason, it’s this game. Deshaun Watson, 1st game back, and his first is Houston. I know how it should end, but I’m just saying, stay away.

Vikings -3 over Jets, 30-22

-The Mike White ride was nice while it lasted.

Falcons pk over Steelers, 24-20

-These are two versions of the same team, but the Falcons have actually won about half their games this season.

Ravens -9.5 over Broncos, 24-6

-The Ravens have had big problems putting up numbers and probably will here, too. But the Broncos can’t put up any numbers, so…

Commanders -1.5 over Giants, 19-16

-I respect what the Giants have done this year. But I respect what Washington has done in the last month more. And mostly, I respect myself enough to not watch any of this game tomorrow.

Dolphins +4 over 49ers, 31-20

-The 49ers are tougher, have more variety in offense. However, the Dolphins do a single thing (throwing down field) better than any team in football.

Seahawks -7 over Rams, 31-10

-Do you know who’s suiting up for the Rams this week?

Chargers +2.5 over Raiders, 31-27

-Just take the over.

Bengals +2.5 over Chiefs, 33-31

-The Bengals beat them in the playoffs, they are going to be at full health, they need the game more, and the Chiefs have not been winning by as much as you think.

Cowboys -10.5 over Colts, 31-20

-It’s a big line, so low confidence.

Bucs -3.5 over Saints, 24-16

-Rough game. Never bet on Tampa versus New Orleans. However, you can’t bet on New Orleans right now.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 7-8

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 105-63

By Spread: 86-83

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1993-1100
By Spread: 1631-1466

2022 NFL Week 12 Predictions

2022-11-22T16:42:00.004-08:00

2022 NFL Week 12 Predictions

Lions +9.5 over Bills, 24-31

-At some point the travel and weird schedule has to get to the Bills. They’re going to win this game, but the Lions can score and will do so enough to cover.

Cowboys -8 over Giants, 33-16

-In the words of Cousin Sal, the Giants are a fake team and it’s now starting to show.

Vikings -2.5 over Patriots, 24-20

-Just a team that can score versus a team that can’t.

Broncos -2.5 over Panthers, 17-9

-Panthers are trying Sam Darnold this week…good luck.

Falcons +4 over Commanders, 23-26

-I like the Commanders to probably win and continue their streak, but for two teams that run the ball, this will probably stay close.

Dolphins -13 over Texans, 37-6

-The road to the first overall pick goes through Houston.

Bengals -1.5 over Titans, 27-23

-The titans win a lot of close games. I have a lot of respect for Vrabel. And the titans sacked Burrow 8 times earlier in 2022. However, the Bengals won that game and have an actual passing offense.

I am not picking Bears vs. Jets as we don’t know who the QBs will be.

Bucs -3.5 over Browns, 24-16

-Really, all of our goals have been for the Browns to be functionally knocked out before Deshaun comes back. We’re almost there.

Ravens -3.5 over Jaguars, 17-10

-I don’t like this. If it gets to 4 or 4.5 I would probably grab the Jags. The Ravens did not instill confidence in me after last week, but I am going to bet on the talent and the track record.

Chargers -4.5 over Cardinals, 31-23

-Really I just like the over on this game.

Seahawks -4 over Raiders, 30-24

-Coming off of a bye, Seattle should dismantle this immature Las Vegas team.

49ers -9 over Saints, 27-17

-We’re really starting to see what the 49ers can be on offense. They should dominate this game beginning to end.

Chiefs -14.5 over Rams, 31-10

-It sounds like a big number, but here’s the thing. The Chiefs aren’t going to score less than 27 and I don’t see how the Rams score more than 13. So there you are.

Eagles -7 over Packers, 31-23

-Did you see those new black helmets??

Colts -2.5 over Steelers, 20-16

-It’s a free half point. That’s it.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-3

By Spread: 8-5

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 95-58

By Spread: 79-75

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1983-1095
By Spread: 1624-1458

2022 NFL Week 11 Predictions

2022-11-19T16:35:00.000-08:00

2022 NFL Week 11 Predictions

Eagles -6.5 over Colts, 31-23

-That feels like a free half point.

Saints -3 over Rams, 20-3

-Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Falcons -3 over Bears, 17-13

-This is dangerous because the Bears have the most exciting player and probably the best player. But, the overall quality of the Falcons is probably better and they have a more realistic shot at a playoff spot for motivation purposes.

Commanders -3 over Texans, 24-12

-I almost can’t believe this line is this small. At some point, you can’t ignore that this team has 5 wins.

Patriots -3.5 over Jets, 24-20

-I wish I was able to grab this at 3, but that’s ok. I actually don’t even think this will be that close.

Giants -3 over Lions, 17-11

-Little terrified at how many 3-point favorites I am taking this week, but here we are.

Ravens -13 over Panthers, 34-6

-The Ravens are getting into an easy part of their schedule and we’re going to look back at a cruising 11-4 team having missed a bunch of really easy wins along the way.

Bills -8 over Browns, 31-22

-This sounds weird because I didn’t put the Bills in my top 6 locks of the week. Just a complete stay away because of Josh’s health, their general inconsistency, the storm, and the relocation to a neutral site where they will play twice in 5 days over a holiday. But strictly speaking, I can’t take Jacoby Brissett, even with 8 points, over Josh Allen.

Broncos -2.5 over Raiders, 17-13

-I think I like this pick the least of any pick I have made in any sport in 2022. But, it’s a free half point and the Raiders just aren’t good.

Bengals -3.5 over Steelers, 27-16

-Even with the Chase injury, the Bengals are going to be able to score far more easily than the Steelers will.

Vikings +1.5 over Cowboys, 30-26

-I know the Vikings are a fake one-loss team. But to be the underdogs to this fake Cowboys team is insulting.

Chargers +5.5 over Chiefs, 27-30

-Chiefs are more likely to win, but with the Chargers getting everyone back on offense I’m going to take the points.

49ers -8 over Cardinals, 27-16

-This is likely the result anyway, but the chance that Kyler Murray sits makes it even juicier.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 6-6

By Spread: 6-6

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 85-55

By Spread: 71-70

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1973-1092
By Spread: 1616-1453

2022 NFL Week 10 Predictions

2022-11-11T16:32:00.000-08:00

2022 NFL Week 10 Predictions

Seahawks +3.5 over Bucs, 24-20

-There is a really good chance the Bucs win this game. But, getting the 3.5 in a weird travel game…I want the team that has been better and more consistent all year.

Titans -2.5 over Broncos, 17-10

-This assumes Tannehill is back. But, the Broncos have not shown that you can have any faith in their ability to score dynamically at this point.

Dolphins -3.5 over Browns, 31-22

-I get that the Browns get a bump because they’re very tough and have good lines, but they can’t score with Miami.

Saints -1.5 over Steelers, 20-16

-Legit, the Saints haven’t been good. But at least they have competently moved the ball each week. That’s more than we can say for Pittsburgh.

Bears -2.5 over Lions, 29-26

-You want to know where we are at with the Bears right now? I’m in the last week of a Guillotine league and out of multiple choices, I am playing Fields at QB.

Vikings +3.5 over Bills, 24-23

-Obviously this has everything to do with Josh Allen’s health. Regardless of that, the Bills have let too many teams hang around and the Vikings are 7-1. 3.5 is too many.

Giants -4.5 over Texans, 22-10

-This should be a HUGE Saquon week.

Jaguars +10.5 over Chiefs, 24-27

-Just too many points for the team that leads the NFL in 1st downs (yes, you read that right. Jacksonville has the most 1st downs in football).

Raiders -4.5 over Colts, 24-3

-The Raiders may fire their coach soon, just cut their 1st round pick from last year, put Renfrow and Waller on IR, and I’m pretty sure I’m using them as my eliminator pick this week.

Cowboys -4 over Packers, 27-20

-If you had told me after Week 1 that the Cowboys giving 4 in Lambeau was an easy pick, I would’ve called you insane. But here we are.

I’m not picking Cards vs. Rams because we might have 0, 1, or 2 of the normal starting QBs involved.

Chargers +7 over 49ers, 23-27

-That’s just a lot of points to give Herbert. 49ers are tougher and more well-rested, but 7 is a lot. It’s just too many.

Eagles -11 over Commanders, 37-17

-This could get ugly.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 9-3

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 79-49

By Spread: 65-64

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1967-1086
By Spread: 1610-1447

2022 NFL Week 9 Predictions

2022-11-05T17:38:00.003-07:00

2022 NFL Week 9 Predictions

Vikings -3 over Commanders, 29-24

-I actually don't;’t think it will be this close. I did do a double take when I saw the Commanders have 4 wins. But, I mean….this is Kirk Cousins at 1pm.

Bengals -7.5 over Panthers, 27-10

-The results of last week would say to be careful on this game with the Panthers playing a close match. However, the Bengals need this, are at home, and are a far more quality team.

Bills -11.5 over Jets, 31-10

-Only the Jets could do this to themselves. It’s not that they’re going to go 5-12: everyone expected them to go 5-12. It’s that they’re going to 5-2 and then lose 10 in a row to end the season. They bring up the hopes only to crush them that more thoroughly.

Pats -5.5 over Colts, 20-6

-No idea why this was in the Vegas zone. Pats should easily beat the young and inexperienced QB.

Jags +2.5 over Raiders, 22-16

-I’m taking the 2.5 at home, because the Raiders shouldn't be favored versus Texas Southern right now.

Dolphins -4.5 over Bears, 31-20

-It’s been a nice story, Bears. It ends here.

Packers -3.5 over Lions, 24-20

-I guess. Fairly low confidence on this one.

Chargers -3 over Falcons, 24-17

-This would be a more high confidence pick, but Herbert’s basically throwing to a couple of walk-ons from CalTech right now. I mean, that’s still going to be enough…but not by a big number.

Seahawks +2 over Cardinals, 28-27

-I want to pick the Cardinals. They are probably a better team, at home, and their uniforms are very pretty. But I’m not going to disrespect what the Seahawks have done this year by doing that.

Bucs -3 over Rams, 20-16

-I want it on record that I don’t like ANY of this. I don’t like the broken-down QBs playing each other. I certainly don’t like that this is the only 4:25 game. It’s 2022, people, we’re all watching RedZone! There can’t only be 2 games in the 4pm block! And the joke’s on you Fox, the Cardinals v Seahawks game is the better one!

Titans +13 over Chiefs, 17-27

-I’ve wanted to do this all week and I didn’t know if I was going to be brave enough to. Don’t get me wrong, the Chiefs are going to win. But Derrick Henry is going to slow the game down and produce enough to keep them within range and the 13 point halo.

Ravens -1 over Saints, 27-23

-Scared to death of the Ravens because I’m honestly not sure who is playing WR or TE for them. But it’s Lamar, in prime time, versus Andy Dalton. That’s kind of it.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 9-5

By Spread: 7-7

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 69-47

By Spread: 56-61

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1957-1084
By Spread: 1601-1444

2022 NFL Week 8 Predictions

2022-10-29T15:01:00.000-07:00

2022 NFL Week 8 Predictions

Jags -2.5 over Broncos, 25-19

-Jags are just more talented.

Vikings -4 over Cards, 31-26

-Both teams are very similar with inconsistency at QB and coaching. However, one team is 5-1 and home (with Kirk Cousins NOT in prime time), and the other team is 3-4 and on the road and out of their natural time zone (and on a COD release weekend).

Dolphins -4 over Lions, 30-24

-Two high-scoring but inconsistent, and sometimes injured, teams. However, one of them is 4-3 and the other is 1-5.

Cowboys -10 over Bears, 22-10

-Is it bad that I think Zeke missing this game is better for the Cowboys? Oh well. I have a cousin who will proudly start Tony Pollard in at least 4 leagues this weekend.

Raiders -1.5 over Saints, 33-30

-Andy Dalton is still actively throwing the football…I’ll take the Raiders.

Falcons -4 over Panthers, 24-10

-Last week was the Panthers’ “we have no coach, no stars, we’ll show you” week. It was a nice time, but it’s over now.

Patriots -3 over Jets, 22-17

-The Pats are confounding and I don’t know what’s going on. But even in the dark times, we beat the Jets. It doesn’t help that the Jets lost their most exciting, and maybe best, player last week.

Eagles -10.5 over Steelers, 31-13

-Eagles are well-rested coming out of a bye week and at home. They’re going to roll this.

Titans +1 over Texans, 27-10

-The Tannehill news gives me pause, but a brief pause it is.

Giants +3 over Seahawks, 21-20

-This is probably pretty close, so I’m just taking the 3 points. The Metcalf injury also plays a factor.

Rams +1 over 49ers, 24-23

-Ok everyone. The Rams haven’t been great. But they’re rested and coming off a bye week, they’ve had time to sort out their RB and WR2 situations. The 49ers are without Deebo, they’re still working in CMC, so I’ll take the rare opportunity to grab a point with the SB Champs at home.

Colts -3 over Commanders, 20-16

-There’s more talent on this Colts team. And I’m a little intrigued with Ehlinger.

Bills -10.5 over Packers, 35-24

-Everything inside me is screaming to grab the 2-time MVP with 10.5 points. But, I can’t bet against this Bill’s offense…especially rested and prepared.

Bengals -3 over Browns, 30-22

-Long-term, the Chase injury is going to hurt them. But this week I think the only effect is that it brought the line down to 3 from 3.5 or 4.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 8-5

By Spread: 6-7

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 60-42

By Spread: 49-54

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1948-1079
By Spread: 1594-1437

2022 NFL Week 7 Predictions

2022-10-21T17:54:00.005-07:00

2022 NFL Week 7 Predictions

Titans -2.5 over Colts, 24-20

-Colts are too inconsistent and the Titans are rested and at home coming off a bye. Start Derrick Henry, folks!

Jags -3 over Giants, 22-17

-Alright everybody, this is their last chance. Giants highly respectable 5-1. The Jags have more offensive talent and should win this game. If they don’t…we’re off the bandwagon.

Bucs -13 over Panthers, 24-3

-One would think.

Packers -4.5 over Commanders, 23-10

-I know the Packers haven’t been good. But…this is Washington we’re talking about.

Cowboys -6.5 over Lions, 32-24

-Dak is back. Low confidence in this game, but they should win a high-scoring contest.

Bengals -6.5 over Falcons, 27-20

-Nervous to go against the ATS-winning Falcons this year. But, I feel like this is where the Bengals start beating the reasonably talented teams in front of them and get back towards the top of the conference.

Ravens -6.5 over Browns, 24-10

-Turns out if you focus entirely on stopping the run, the Browns aren’t good at almost anything else. I think Baltimore will figure that out.

Jets +1 over Broncos, 20-17

-How the heck are the Jets not favored in this game? How the heck did I write that sentence seriously?

Raiders -7 over Texans, 31-17

-There’s a lot of points, but the Raiders should open it up against the Texans in a pretty convincing win. For their benefit, I do hope the Texans start getting Pearce 25+ touches a game.

Chargers -5 over Seattle, 35-28

-Pretty low confidence on the pick itself, but arrows pointing up on total.

Chiefs -2 over 49ers, 24-21

-Just stay away. I’d take the Chiefs, but I have a weird feeling there’s way too much money being dumped in Vegas on the Chiefs and the 49ers are exactly the type of team that can sneak up on them.

Dolphins -7.5 over Steelers, 31-20

-That’s a big number, but Tua being back should mean the Dolphins go back to huge production and the Steelers frankly are not that good.

Patriots -8.5 over Bears, 30-6

-Easy eliminator pick if you don’t have the Bucs still.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 8-5

By Spread: 9-4

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 52-37

By Spread: 43-47

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1940-1074
By Spread: 1588-1430

2022 NFL Week 6 Predictions

2022-10-15T16:10:00.003-07:00

2022 NFL Week 6 Predictions

Vikings -3 over Dolphins, 27-23

-What should be a super exciting offensive game…is marred by whatever you call the Dolphins’ QB situation.

Patriots +2.5 over Browns, 24-23

-I wish the Patriots’ QB situation was more resolved, but otherwise I like the overall composition of this team. Plus, you know, Bill going back to Cleveland…if you know, you know.

Falcons +5.5 over 49ers, 24-26

-Falcons do exceedingly well against the spread. That’s it.

Bucs -9.5 over Steelers, 35-10

-Not enough points in the world.

Bengals -2.5 over Saints, 27-17

-The Andy Dalton revenge game? Yeah, I don’t think so.

Ravens -5.5 over Giants, 30-20

-Am I making this my eliminator pick this week? Sure am. Do I feel good about it? Sure don’t. Do I respect Daboll and think the Giants have managed their way to a good record, but the Ravens are just a lot better overall? Sure do.

Jets +7.5 over Packers, 22-28

-Just cover, baby. Packers don’t deserve to lay any more than a TD versus anyone right now.

Jags +1.5 over Colts, 20-10

-No Jonathan Taylor, Matt Ryan looks cooked….just when I was out on the Jags, they pull me back in.

Seahawks +3 over Cardinals, 30-27

-Just take the over…don’t try to pick who wins. It’s better for your mental health.

Rams -10 over Panthers, 24-13

-The Rams probably shouldn’t be laying 10 points to anyone. But if it had to be someone, it’s the team that recently doesn’t have a coach. And PJ Walker is QB for some reason.

Bills -2.5 over Chiefs, 38-33

-Points, baby! Bills want to make a statement here and care about this game far more than KC does.

Eagles -6.5 over Cowboys, 27-19

-At the end of the day, the Cowboys have a lot of talent but probably can’t score at the rate needed to beat Philadelphia.

Chargers -5 over Broncos, 26-20

-This assumes that Russell is even close to healthy. Otherwise, this could be a lot uglier.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 7-8

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 44-32

By Spread: 34-43

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1932-1069

By Spread: 1579-1426

2022 NFL Week 5 Predictions

2022-10-08T20:44:00.004-07:00

2022 NFL Week 5 Predictions

Packers -8 over Giants, 27-6

-Pack can score, Giants cannot.

Patriots -3 over Lions, 20-16

-I really want to support my Lions, but they’re beat up, it’s in New England, and the Patriots are a better team than their record.

Bills -14 over Steelers, 37-22

-Don’t get me wrong, this is gonna be a rout. However, with most of Buffalo’s secondary injured, I like there to be a lot of points here. Pickett over 203.5…

Dolphins -3.5 over Jets, 28-23

-Jets have been a nice story, but Theodore will ably guide an easy victory here.

Bucs -10 over Falcons, 34-23

-I was getting really excited to pick the Bucs here…and then saw how big the line got. Seems like everyone is on the same page.

Seahawks +5.5 over Saints, 23-26

-I still don’t really like Seattle, but they’re just at a different level of function than NO is right now.

Jags -7 over Texans, 30-22

-Alright, Jags. Last week was your giveaway. Rainy conditions, playing the best team in the NFL, it happens. You want to be a good team? This is your taking care of business game.

Titans -1 over Commanders, 24-13

-*eagerly runs to the counter* How do most people think these teams are even close? Especially when they are trending in opposite directions.

Vikings -7.5 over Bears, 30-10

-That’s a big number, but the Bears literally can’t throw the football.

Chargers -1 over Brown, 30-23

-I’m personally insulted. The Browns have a strong roster in certain areas. But….Herbert > Brissett.

49ers -6.5 over Panthers, 26-16

-It’s going to go bad for Baker real fast.

Rams -5 over Cowboys, 24-13

-Cowboys have gotten away with smoke and mirror wins over flawed opponents. The Rams aren’t perfect…but they’re not that.

Eagles -5.5 over Cardinals, 31-22

-Superior bird.

Bengals +3.5 over Ravens, 27-26

-Probably a very close game, just taking the extra half point.

Chiefs -7 over Raiders, 34-20

-...you’ve all seen the last 5 years of this matchup, right?

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 7-8

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 34-27

By Spread: 27-35

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1922-1064
By Spread: 1572-1418

2022 NFL - Week 4 Predictions

2022-10-01T20:20:00.004-07:00

2022 NFL Week 4 Predictions

Speed round, as we are on wedding weekend number 2 and I don’t have much time.

Vikings -3.5 over Saints, 24-13

-Wish I had grabbed this minus -2.5 or even 3. But still, how do the Saints score with the Viks, especially with Dalton at QB?

Chargers -6 over Texans, 31-16

-One of your Eliminator picks of the week.

Giants -3 over Bears, 17-10

-Have self respect. Don’t watch any of this game. Keep an eye on touchdowns, then see Saquon and Herbert’s stats at the end. That’s fine.

Lions -3.5 over Seahawks, 26-16

-Everyone and their mother is going to play Jamaal Williams in DFS and KOM leagues, aren’t they? (Checks quickly…I sure am too).

Jags +6.5 over Eagles, 27-31

-Showing the respect of how well the Jags have played thus far. Too many points.

Jets +3.5 over Steelers, 20-10

-The Jets aren’t good. But the Steelers might be truly bad and boring. At least the Jets are young and exciting.

Falcons +1.5 over Browns, 24-20

-No idea what to make of the Browns. Still well coached, tough, strong players at multiple positions. Still makes me feel icky to think about, and having season from hell vibes with Garrett being the latest indicator. I’m going to take the pesky Falcons at home.

Titans +3.5 over Colts, 23-24

-Did we watch last week? Titans looked okay again, and the Colts won in a fluke. Not sure that warrants a 3.5 point line.

Cowboys -3 over Commanders, 17-13

-I guess? Stay away from this, and like Giants-Bears, don’t watch it. Not from boredom, but because Wentz can just make you feel ill watching it.

Bills -3.5 over Ravens, 34-30

-Dolphins was such a fluke loss. While the Ravens are good, there just isn’t anything like Buffalo at this point. Coming off a big AFC loss, they will absolutely get up for this game.

Panthers -1.5 over Cardinals, 20-17

-CMC, if there was a game to break out, this is it. It makes sense. Oh wait, you are already vaguely questionable for the week. Urg.

Raiders -2.5 over Broncos, 20-16

-Just a desperation play, and it isn’t a full 3.

Packers -9.5 over Patriots, 23-10

-Not going to be pretty to watch. In the “it’s going to be over quickly” sense as well as “the actual mechanics of the game aren’t going to be pretty” sense.

Bucs -1 over Chiefs, 27-24

-Both off tough losses to conference foes, the Bucs continue to hang in games with no offense. Evans is back, Tom Brady at home in primetime over Mahomes….one more time.

Rams +1.5 over 49ers, 27-22

-Rams getting points is an insult. I know the history, and the road status but…c’mon. It’s still the champs versus a beaten up and inconsistent team.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 9-7

By Spread: 10-6

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 23-23

By Spread: 20-27

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1911-1060
By Spread: 1565-1410

2022 NFL Week 3 Predictions

2022-09-24T17:41:00.002-07:00

2022 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Browns -4.5 over Steelers, 29-17 (Actual)

-Even without the gift touchdown at the end, easily had this one. Thank you to Chubb, who I used in my KOM league.

Lions +6 over Vikings, 31-33

-I like both teams actually, it’s just a lot of points.

Ravens -3 over Pats, 29-23

-Even with all of the injuries for Baltimore, it’s just a significantly more dynamic team.

Saints -2.5 over Panthers, 19-16

-What an ugly game that I want no part of.

Bears -3 over Texans, 20-16

-See Saints v Panthers.

Chiefs -5.5 over Colts, 31-10

-Why in the heck is this only 5.5? The KC disrespect is high right now.

Eagles -6.5 over Commanders, 30-22

-*whispers* The Eagles are one of the elite teams. *whispers*

Dolphins +4.5 over Bills, 36-34

-So many points. But, the Dolphins are at home, getting that magical 4.5, and Buffalo is missing so many vital defenders.

Bengals -6 over Jets, 27-13

-If the Bengals don’t get it right here…everyone is in a lot of trouble.

Raiders -2 over Titans, 24-20

-This should be the “Derrick Henry, grind it out, defensive stand, 37 minutes of possession” Tennessee win. But I don’t think they can do that anymore. And while both teams are 0-2, the Raiders’ division makes their situation far more desperate.

Jags +4.5 over Chargers, 28-30

-This is just the smarter play to cover the range of outcomes. Chargers win in a blowout with Herbert (I have them winning). Chargers got out a win with a banged up Herbert or Chase (I cover with the points). Herbert sits and the Jags blow the Chargers out, I cover regardless.

Falcons +1 over Seahawks, 24-10

-Don’t get it twisted…the Falcons are not good. But this Seahawks team is legitimately bad.

Rams -3 over Cards, 30-23

-The Rams have a lower ceiling (most teams have a lower ceiling than the Cardinals). However, the professionalism and experience of the Rams provides a larger range of winning scenarios.

Bucs -1 over Packers, 19-16

-You just don’t bet against Tom Brady.

49ers -1 over Broncos, 22-13

-The idealization of the Broncos is right there for all of us to see. But we’ve had 2 weeks where there’s just something wrong. Everything in SF isn’t necessarily right, but we have a half-decade of knowing there will be reasonable decision-making, toughness, and execution.

Giants -1 over Cowboys, 16-10

-We really picked the best and brightest for prime time games this week, huh?

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 8-8

By Spread: 6-10

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 14-16

By Spread: 10-21

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1902-1053
By Spread: 1555-1404

2022 NFL Week 2 Predictions

2022-09-17T17:13:00.003-07:00

2022 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Chargers +4.5 over Chiefs, 31-24

-Had this in multiple places, got the spread right, but the winner wrong. Chargers blew it with all the 4th and shorts that they elected not to try.

Panthers +1.5 over Giants, 20-16

-Panthers need the win, Giants got a random one already.

Patriots -2.5 over Steelers, 23-17

-Pats are healthy and need a win. Steelers got their lucky break last week.

Bucs -2.5 over Saints, 28-13

-Brady being 0-4 versus the Saints is just a weird stat. But, this really shouldn’t be that close. Additionally, we have injuries on both sides so that evens things out a little.

Browns -6.5 over Jets, 22-10

-I’m trying to look for losses for the Browns so their season is already over when they get Watson back. But unfortunately, there’s a lot of easy wins here.

Ravens -3.5 over Dolphins, 27-23

-This is a low confidence pick because of all of the injuries in the Ravens secondary. But, they’re still a much more talented team.

Lions -1 over Commanders, 27-23

-I’m much more likely to think my preseason read on the Lions (and Eagles) is real than Carson Wentz will repeat much of what he did in Week 1.

Colts -3 over Jaguars, 21-14

-What I saw last week did not fill me with hope for Indianapolis. Losing Pittman for this game doesn’t help either. But this should be a get right win with a dominant effort running the football. If it isn’t, we’re moving the Colts into a different category going forward.

Rams -10 over Falcons, 31-10

-Nice cover by Atlanta last week and too much hype for the demise of the Rams a week and a half ago.

Seahawks +9.5 over 49ers, 16-19

-I don’t like it. But, something is not right in San Francisco. I don’t think Seattle wins, but 9.5 is too much.

Broncos -10 over Texans, 33-13

-Nice effort by Houston. But, Russell is going to light up the scoreboard this week and easily cover this.

Raiders -5.5 over Cards, 30-17

-I just think it’s bad in Arizona right now. The Raiders have holes, but Arizona’s entire defense is a whole.

Bengals -7 over Cowboys, 26-6

-This is going to be super ugly.

Packers -10 over Bears, 31-10

-I mean, he owns them.

Bills -10 over Titans, 34-23

-That’s actually a lot of points to give the #1 seed in the AFC last year. But, here we are. 2022 Bills are going to rampage through the league.

Vikings +3 over Eagles, 31-30

-? just take the over.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 6-8

By Spread: 4-11

Record Last Year:

Straight Up: 175-100

By Spread: 147-128

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1894-1045

By Spread: 1549-1394

2022 NFL Playoff, Awards, and Week 1 Predictions

2022-09-10T16:44:00.001-07:00

2022 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Bills – They’re just the best team in the division with the best player in the division…again

AFC North – Bengals - Baltimore remains a really good team that just had a lot of bad injury luck. However, I’m not convinced all of that injury luck has been rectified. Dobbins still is not healthy and Lamar, by nature of his skill set, will be injury prone. The Bengals are young, talented, won the conference last year, and fixed their only weakness.

AFC South – Colts - Boring, but not an exciting division. JT + Offensive Line = Boring 10 wins.

AFC West – Chargers – Maybe the most top-heavy talented team in the league. Quietly impressed with how good the offensive line and pass rush has gotten while everyone is looking at the glitzy offense and corners.

AFC Wild Cards – Chiefs.Ravens.Patriots (Honorable Mention: Jaguars)

AFC Championship – Chargers over Bengals

NFC East – Eagles – Hurts got better and they added a real WR.

NFC North – Packers – Am I worried about the WRs? A little bit. But the rest of the team is a solid B+ at every position and they still have a Jedi master at QB.

NFC South – Bucs – The least good about this I felt in the Tom Brady/Bucs era…but do you want to pick anyone else?

NFC West – Rams – This paper-thin team worries the heck out of me...but fully healthy...it’s still going to be a monster. Despite what happened Thursday night.

NFC Wild Cards – Vikings.Saints.49ers (Honorable Mention: Lions)

NFC Championship – Packers over Eagles

Superbowl: Chargers over Packers

-Herbert cements himself as the best overall player in a highly competitive, generationally talented, QB grouping.

Awards

MVP: Justin Herbert

-Fully loaded. I’m not halfway in, I’m all in.

OPY: Justin Jefferson

-He’s a younger, faster, more athletic Cooper Kupp in the Cooper Kupp role.

DPY: Nick Bosa

-Quietly a monster on what might be the best defense in the NFL. Donald is probably a hair too old, Myles Garrett is on a team that is too unlikable, and TJ Watt unlikely to repeat.

ORY: Chris Olave

-Opportunity + team success + there’s no starting rookie QBs = Chris Olave. He’s just so damn smooth.

DRY: Aidan Hutchinson

-Biggest name. Kavon is already hurt + Hard Knocks bump.

COY: Brandon Staley - Chargers

-The Chargers even winning the division over the Chiefs means that he’s going to get recognition.

2021 NFL Week 1 Predictions

Eagles -5.5 over Lions, 28-22

-And I like the Lions, too. But the Eagles got a lot better.

Colts -7 over Texans, 27-19

-Maybe your easiest Eliminator pick of the week. Assuming Matt Ryan isn’t completely shot, this is going to be your most predictable 8-win floor, 11-win ceiling team. Texans are probably going to take a few small steps forward this year (I like Mills better than most), but not enough.

Panthers pk over Browns, 24-22

-Baker gets “revenge”? The Browns still have a lot of talent, but all of the juju is against them. They are at Carolina and CMC is theoretically healthy.

49ers -7 over Bears, 37-10

-Honestly, Lance makes me nervous. But the Bears could be so atrociously bad this year, it won’t matter. This should be a romp.

Jags +3.5 over Commanders, 24-20

-I sneaky like the Jags as a competitive 8 or 9-win team this year. I like nothing about the Washington Commanders.

Patriots +3.5 over Dolphins, 24-23

-Am I nervous about the Patriots offense? Sure am. Am I grabbing any Belichick team getting 3.5 points in a season opener? Sure am.

Bengals -7 over Steelers, 31-22

-This is a sneaky important game for the Bengals. They are the favorites, conference champs, and should roll over the Steelers. And if they do, we have a new Bengals team. So let’s do it, friends.

Ravens -6.5 over Jets, 31-9

-This feels like a free half point.

Saints -5.5 over Falcons, 26-15

-We have no way of knowing what the Falcons offense will look like. However, the Saints just have way more talent and spent time adding rather than subtracting.

Chiefs -6.5 over Cardinals, 31-20

-I get the Cards had a nice record last year and are at home, but this feels like a free half point. Cards also just have so many injuries in addition to all the weirdness around this team.

Titans -5.5 over Giants, 20-6

-I want to say this feels like a really easy, “take the favorite, lay the points” especially because it’s not even 6. However, something doesn’t feel right about the game overall. To be clear, I like nothing about the Giants right now. But I’ll be staying away from this game overall.

Packers -2 over Vikings, 33-30

-Ok, let’s do this. It’s Week 1. It is a ridiculous statement to say this is a must-win for the Vikings. But it’s kind of a must-win for the Vikings. They’re all hyped up to finally take control of the division. But if they lose…at home…to a Packers team that is kind of auditioning guys at WR from the local YMCA…it’s going to be really hard to come back from that. Absent anything else, I trust infrastructure and consistency.

Chargers -3.5 over Raiders, 34-28

-Raiders offense is much improved. But their weaknesses on the offensive line are badly matched with all of the Chargers’ additions at pass rusher. Plus, you know, the Raiders still can’t stop the Chargers. So there’s that, too.

Bucs -2.5 over Cowboys, 27-23

-I have like, Level 2 weird factor with Tampa right now. But I got Level 4 weird factor with Dallas. Thin at WR, no offensive tackle, Zeke about to hit a cliff, Mike McCarthy is still involved. I’ll take Tampa.

Broncos -6.5 over Seahawks, 26-16

-This, ladies and gentlemen, is in fact a free half point.

Record Last Year:

Straight Up: 175-100

By Spread: 147-128

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1888-1037
By Spread: 1545-1383

2021 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

2022-02-13T11:03:00.002-08:00

2021 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Bengals +4 over Rams, 24-27

-The Rams are a much better team. Their top-end talent, and their talent distribution across multiple position groups, is much better. The Rams really should brutalize the Bengals’ offensive line. This almost profiles as the same kind of game from last year where a talented, veteran team steamrolls and frustrates an exciting offense with a huge flaw on the offensive line. That game was 31-9…and we are due to a fairly boring 35-10 Super Bowl run. So, you might ask, why am I taking the Bengals and the 4?

This Bengals team reminds me of a couple different teams. The ‘01 Patriots, the ‘03 Panthers, the ‘08 Cardinals. Interestingly, all three had somewhat randomly inspired high-level QB play, breakouts at receiver, and were not projected to win the big game. And out of that group, only the ‘01 Patriots did. But in all those cases, they hung within a half TD in the game. Burrow is entering a territory that he can solidify this year where you just don’t want to bet against him even if it doesn’t make sense to bet on him. I can see the Rams winning big, the Rams winning close, or the Bengals winning close. By grabbing the 4, I get 2 out of those 3 scenarios, and get to root for Burrow and this generally likable Bengals team. This is truly a Super Bowl where it will be fun no matter what happens. I appreciate the Rams going all in to try and win a title, and Kupp can top off functionally the best WR season ever with a win, a big game, or both.

My favorite prop bets (because honestly, I think that's where the best opportunities are for this game).

Rams over 3.5 sacks
Total field goal distance in game over 124.5 yds
Chase + Kupp over 199 yds
Higgins over 68.5 yds

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 2-0

By Spread: 2-0

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 174-100

By Spread: 146-128

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1887-1037
By Spread: 1544-1383

2021 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Conference Title Round

2022-01-30T10:41:00.003-08:00

2021 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Conference Title Round

Bengals +7 over Chiefs, 24-30

-The game from a few weeks ago between these two teams is instructive, but only to a point. It shows the Bengals can beat them, but also that a lot of things have to go right. Honestly, the best bet for a Bengals victory would likely be a let down emotionally after a huge win last week. This is unlikely, for a team with the talent and experience that the Chiefs have. I’m grabbing the points because that’s a huge spread for a conference title game. However, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this is a game more reminiscent of the mid 2010’s contest between the Colts and the Patriots. One juggernaut versus a young, exciting, well-built, young team with a superstar young QB…that ultimately isn’t quite ready yet.

49ers +4 over Rams, 27-30

-I’m picking the Rams to win but the 49ers to cover mainly out of respect for how close the 49ers play every game and my admittedly poor finger on the pulse of the 49ers overall. The Rams should be able to score with a ceiling much higher than the 49ers are capable of. However, that’s what I said last week, and the 49ers were able to smother the Packers. Weather differences aside, the 49ers have beaten the Rams 6 straight times. The 49ers have more blue chippers across the board. The only huge disparity in talent is at the QB position (all respect to Jimmy G and his win percentage). I think the Rams likely win, but there’s too many scenarios where the 49ers win, cover, or just keep it close. Doesn’t help that SoFi will be at least half red and gold this afternoon.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 0-4

By Spread: 0-4

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 172-100

By Spread: 144-128

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1885-1037
By Spread: 1542-1383

2021 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Divisional Round

2022-01-22T10:26:00.005-08:00

2021 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Divisional Round

Titans -4 over Bengals, 26-20

-Titans are well-rested and far better coached than folks realize. There’s something to be said about winning close games when you need to all year, and that’s what Tennessee has done. Derrick and His Metal Foot (DAHMF) makes me a little nervous. However, the Titans have been able to run the ball, even with backups, and I think they will do so even if King DAHMF isn’t 100%.

Packers -5 over 49ers, 28-10

-Green Bay is well-rested, has the former, once, and future MVP, and the 49ers are really beat up. The health and performance of Bosa and Warner depletes the chance I think SF had in this game.

Bucs -3 over Rams, 27-23

-The Rams are great and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game. They probably have more top-end talent, and they definitely have more top-end talent available. However, the Rams have to travel cross-country again, will not be able to run as they want against this defense. And to pick against Tom Brady in the playoffs is folly.

Bills +2 over Chiefs, 38-35

-This score prediction is, in part, what I think we all want to see. All too often, the reality turns out to be a relatively boring 24-21 where both teams have a nervous first quarter and there are long drives eating up the clock. But I’m going with wish fulfillment and matching Buffalo’s score from their matchup earlier this season. This should be a massive shootout and, to me, is still the most logical predictor of the AFC team going to the Super Bowl.

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 4-2

By Spread: 4-2

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 172-96

By Spread: 144-124

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1885-1033
By Spread: 1542-1379