You get to cheer for goals by both teams, and with hockey totals usually set at 5 or 5.5, you almost always feel like you’ve got a chance to cash your bet.

Even a 5-0 game in the third period is still interesting if you’ve got an Over ticket in your pocket. And a 2-2 game needs just one more goal and then an empty netter to win the Over.

There were lots of goals scored in the NHL over the first week of the season, giving us hope that the high-scoring days of the NHL may be returning.

NHL scoring is up, but for how long? @frank_seravalli has MORE: https://t.co/yCpjZGr3w0 pic.twitter.com/LjRLCyklOv

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 21, 2016

Unfortunately, goals have dropped a bit in the past week, as coaches have made some adjustments and goaltenders are settling in. But there are still some teams that are playing some exciting games and cashing lots of Over bets.

Here are the 3 best over bets in NHL hockey so far:

1. Philadelphia Flyers (8-1-1 Over/Under)

Well, this is quite nice… now if only our D and goalies turned up!
.@NHLFlyers have the joint leaders in G, A & P. #Flyers pic.twitter.com/2b1Rl9UsPa

— Alexander Appleyard (@avappleyard) October 31, 2016

Philly has been playing a wide-open brand of hockey to open the season, with an average of 7.3 goals being scored over their first 10 contests.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 5.5 for 7 of the Flyers’ 10 games, including their past 5. Ironically, the one Under the Flyers played was when the Over/Under was 5 (a 3-1 loss in Montreal Oct. 24.)

In their last 4 games, the Flyers haven’t just gone over the total, they’ve soared over. They’ve scored 4 goals in each of their last 4 games, allowing 5 on two occasions and allowing 3 in the other two games.

Philly’s defence ranks 29th in the NHL, averaging 3.8 goals against per contest. They don’t have a clear No. 1 goaltender as both Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth have struggled.

Philly’s third-ranked offence might not be sustainable, however. The Flyers ranked 22nd in the NHL in scoring last year and have relied on a hot power play (27.5%, 3rd in the NHL) for a lot of their offence this year. Philadelphia is ninth in the NHL in shots per game (31.1).

2. Carolina Hurricanes (6-2 Over/Under)

Actual footage of Cam Ward last night. Mid-season form pic.twitter.com/KVBLQlUrGE

— Berns (@Berns_Churches) October 26, 2016

The Hurricanes have been one of the most boring teams to watch over the past few years, but things are different so far this season.

Carolina has played Over the total in 6 of its first 8 games. Oddsmakers set the total at 5 in each of the Canes’ first 2 games, but quickly increased it to 5.5 for 5 of their next 6 contests after Carolina posted 5-4 and 4-3 losses to start the year.

The Hurricanes have scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their 8 games, and surrendered 4+ goals in 5 of those games. Both their games that went Under the total were 3-2 finals, going Under by half a goal.

Carolina’s offence has ranked 27th, 27th and 22nd in the NHL the past 3 seasons, but they’re 9th this year so far despite ranking 26th in the league in shots on goal. Carolina’s power play has clicked at 25.9 per cent, 5th in the league.

The other big reason the Canes have gone Over so much is their 27th-ranked defence, allowing 3.8 goals per game.

3. Calgary Flames (6-4 Over/Under)

With Gaudreau & Monahan together on the top line, there’s no need to worry about the Flames’ offence. https://t.co/gql1BjZnsw @Dixononsports pic.twitter.com/5SWz3mMWcO

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 14, 2016

Calgary was a hot Over bet to start the year, but that trend has cooled over the past week.

The Flames went Over the total in 5 of their first 6, with 2 of those games featuring 10+ goals and another seeing 8 goals scored. However, 3 of Calgary’s last 4 games went Under, including a 3-1 loss Sunday at home to the Capitals (when the score was 2-1 after the first period).

Calgary’s offence has held up its end of the Over bargain, averaging 3 goals per game so far. Their attack could only get better, considering their power play ranks 27th in the league at 10.8%.

Defence, particularly goaltending, seems to be the reason the Flames are playing more low-scoring games lately. Brian Elliott struggled in his first 2 starts in a Flames uniform, getting torched for 10 goals by the Oilers. However, he’s settled into his new jersey now, allowing 2 goals or less in each of his last 4 appearances.

If you are looking to bet the Flames Over the total, you’re probably better off to do it when they’re playing at home. Calgary has gone over in 5 of 6 games at the Saddledome, compared to a 1-3 Over-Under mark on the road.

The post The Top 3 Over Bets This Season In The NHL appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

Detroit took us on an emotional rollercoaster against the Redskins, allowing a TD with 1:05 left in the fourth quarter to go down by 4, then driving for a go-ahead TD with 16 seconds left to win by 3 and cover the -1.

Our other win was on a teaser of the Eagles +9 and Seahawks +7.5. Philadelphia beat the Vikings outright by 11 points, and Seattle tied Arizona 6-6 in what was otherwise the ugliest game in the history of Sunday Night Football.

The loss was on the Steelers +7.5 against New England. We thought Pittsburgh might rise to the occasion without Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers were within 4 points in the fourth quarter but just couldn’t stay within a touchdown, losing by 11.

We’re now 5-1 over the past 2 weeks and shoot for our 3rd straight winning week with these Week 8 NFL betting picks.

(FYI: You can get these weekly free NFL picks emailed directly to your inbox. Just subscribe to our email list at the base of this article.)

1. Patriots -5 (-107)

On the surface, it looks like tons of line value on the Bills here. If you account for 3 points for home field advantage, that would make the Patriots -11 over Buffalo if they were playing in New England, and people would line up to bet the Bills at that number.

The Patriots have a long track record of same-season revenge (beating an opponent that beat them previously in the same season). Buffalo humiliated the Pats 16-0 at Gillette Stadium earlier this month in the final game of Brady’s suspension, and Belichick will be out for blood here. We also can’t forget Brady’s career record versus Buffalo: a ridiculous 25-2 when he plays the entire game (the Pats lost once to Buffalo when Brady just played the first half).

Buffalo looked like they had things together earlier this month, rolling off a 4-game win streak. But those wins came over the Brady-less Pats, the 49ers, an underachieving Arizona team and the Rams. New England is a big step-up in class, and we expect the Patriots to roll.

2. Browns +3 (-120)

The Browns only have so many winnable games on their schedule, and this looks like it might be their best chance to avoid a winless season.

Cleveland is 0-7, but they continue to play hard. In the games they’ve been blown out, it’s been by superior opposition and talent. In the games they have a fighting chance in, they’ve lost by 4 to the Ravens, by 6 in Miami and by 2 in Tennessee. They’ve also played just 2 home games so far, compared to 5 on the road.

The Jets are going nowhere, and everybody knows it. They’re also coming off an 8-point win at home over the Ravens that snapped a 4-game winning streak, and New York might not come into this game as hungry as a Browns squad desperate to get its first win of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick got the starting QB job back again after Geno Smith tore his hamstring, but Fitzpatrick lost the starting QB job for a reason. Hopefully Cleveland’s defence can force some early turnovers and the Browns can jump to a lead, then hang on or at least stay within a field goal.

3. Saints +8.5/Chargers +10.5 (-110 odds on 2-team, 6-Point Teaser)

We’ll use a 6-point teaser to move both New Orleans and San Diego through a pair of key numbers.

The Saints are 2.5-point underdogs at home this week to Seattle, so moving the line 6 points allows us to win if New Orleans loses by a field goal or even a touchdown (the 2 most common margins of victory in the NFL).

It should be hard for the Seahawks to blow New Orleans out here in the Superdome. 3 of the Saints’ 4 losses have come by a TD or less, and the other came against a high-powered Falcons offence. Seattle scored 6 points last week, the 3rd time in 6 games this season they’ve been held to 12 points or fewer. It’s also the Seahawks’ second straight road game and they could let down a bit after playing to a tie against a division opponent last week on Sunday Night Football.

San Diego is a 4.5-point underdog in Denver. By teasing the Chargers up to 10.5, we can win on them even if San Diego loses by 10 – which is a touchdown plus a field goal.

The argument for San Diego is simple – they’re in every game. All 4 losses this year were by less than 7 points, and they’re coming off a confidence-boosting win last week in Atlanta. No fear of a letdown here – these are fierce AFC West rivals and the Chargers haven’t lost hope of challenging for the division title. Denver is on a short week after beating the Texans on Monday Night Football, and the Chargers are 8-1-4 against the spread in their last 13 trips to Mile High.

The post Week 8 NFL Betting Picks (13-8, 61.9% This Season) appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

Our Week 18 CFL betting picks were on the Redblacks/Ticats Under 53 and a 6-point teaser on the Roughriders -0.5/Eskimos +8.

The Under bet wasn’t close as Ottawa and Hamilton combined for 75 points (the game went to OT) despite playing in cold and rainy conditions. We’d expected the weather to slow down both teams as well as for the defences to show up in such an important game.

In the teaser, Edmonton covered the +8 leg with a 7-point loss in B.C., but red-hot Saskatchewan inexplicably lost at home to the Alouettes. We teased the Roughriders down to -0.5 because we thought 7 points was too much for the Green Riders to cover, but we still expected them to beat a mediocre Montreal team at home.

Let’s hope for better things with our Week 19 CFL betting picks.

Week 19 CFL Betting Lines

Friday, Oct. 28
Edmonton at Hamilton (Tiger-Cats -2.5, O/U 56.5)

Saturday, Oct. 29
Ottawa at Winnipeg (Blue Bombers -5, O/U 55)
British Columbia at Saskatchewan (Lions -3, O/U 52.5)

Sunday, Oct. 30
Calgary at Montreal (Stampeders -9.5, O/U 50)

Odds from Pinnacle.com as of Thursday, Oct. 27

Eskimos at Tiger-Cats (Friday, 7 p.m. eastern)

If this game were played a week ago, Edmonton would probably be the favourite here. The Eskimos had won 3 in a row while the Ticats had dropped 3 straight, 4 of 5 and 6 of 9.

But things changed last week in a big way. Hamilton rallied from a 27-12 halftime deficit to earn a critical 39-36 OT win in Ottawa, locking up a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Eskimos fell to 8-8 after they were outgained by nearly 100 yards in a 32-25 loss in B.C.

Though Hamilton is a point behind Ottawa for first in the East, it’s also quite possible that this game is a possible playoff preview. If the season ended today, Edmonton would play Hamilton in a cross-over game.

Zach Collaros is expected to start at QB for Hamilton, returning from a concussion. But the Ticats were already struggling before his latest injury, and we’re not convinced Collaros’ return will light the Ticats on fire.

Edmonton remains an enigma as well. These are two unpredictable teams right now, and we don’t want any piece of this game. Pass.

Redblacks at Blue Bombers (Saturday, 4 p.m. eastern)

Ottawa is the worst team in the CFL in turnover ratio. Winnipeg is the best.

In an important game for both clubs, that could be the difference maker. Ottawa turned the ball over 5 times last week in a disappointing loss to the Ticats, including a fumble at the Hamilton 1-yard line, a fumble in OT and a fumble deep in its own territory that set up a Ticats TD.

Winnipeg’s also coming off a bye week after posting two straight wins, and the Bombers are 9-2 with Matt Nichols at QB. One of those losses came in Calgary (where everybody loses) by just 2 points.

5 points is a little more than we’d like to lay with the Blue Bombers, however. 3 of their last 5 wins have come by a field goal or less, and Ottawa’s last 3 losses have come by a combined total of 12 points.

Let’s use Winnipeg +1 in a 6-point teaser instead.

Lions at Roughriders (Saturday, 7 p.m. eastern)

It’ll be an emotional evening in Saskatchewan as the Roughriders play their final game at Mosaic Stadium (Taylor Field).

Add in the fact that Saskatchewan is coming off a clunker last week versus Montreal and it looks safe to expect a very strong effort by the home Riders in this contest.

B.C. earned an important victory last week over the Eskimos and this is an important game to the Lions as well as they battle Winnipeg and Edmonton for second place in the West and a first-round playoff game. The Leos have also covered 9 of their last 12 road games and won 5 of their last 6 versus Saskatchewan.

This looks like another great teaser opportunity on the Roughriders. Using them in the other leg of our 6-point teaser allows us to move Saskatchewan to +9, where even losing by a full touchdown will be good enough for the Riders to cover.

Stampeders at Alouettes (Sunday, 1 p.m. eastern)

If the Stampeders show up for this one, it’s no contest. Calgary’s head and shoulders the class of the league at 15-1-1, with their last 4 wins coming by double digits. Last week, they laid 17 points to the Argos and still covered the number.

This is also the regular season finale for the Stamps, who have an opportunity to set a CFL record by finishing 16-1-1. The best previous record in CFL history is 16-2 (Edmonton in 1989). And Calgary should be motivated to play its starters as long as possible because it has a bye next week, followed by a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Coach Dave Dickenson won’t want to give his stars the equivalent of 3 weeks off by sitting them out in this game.

Montreal is still playing with pride, even though they’ve been eliminated from post-season contention. But they’re 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, and 0-7 ATS when coming off a victory.

We’ll lay the 9.5 points with Calgary here and look for one more dominant effort by the Stampeders to finish the season.

Week 19 CFL Betting Picks Recap

We have 2 bets in Week 19: a 6-point teaser on the Blue Bombers +1 and the Roughriders +9, and a point spread bet on the Stampeders -9.5.

We got -110 odds on the teaser at Bodog (which along with Pinnacle is the best sportsbook to use for 2-team, 6-point teasers) and we took -106 odds on the Stampeders at Pinnacle.

Good luck, and see you next week for the final week of the CFL regular season.

The post CFL Betting Picks For Week 19 (18-14, +2.6 Units YTD) appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

Oddsmakers at online sportsbook Pinnacle.com have set the Raptors Over/Under season win total at 50.5 for the 2016-17 season. Last year, the Raptors won 56 games on their way to their first-ever Eastern Conference Finals appearance.

Can they win 50 again? The jury is out. Many are predicting a bit of a downturn this year for Toronto, although 9 of 15 experts in an NBA.com poll predicted the Raptors will win the Atlantic Division once again.

Toronto returns most of its cast from last year. Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola are gone, but the team added size and grit with the signing of Jared Sullinger. The Raptors would also benefit from having a healthy DeMarre Carroll, and Jonas Valanciunas had his coming-out-party as an important big man in last year’s playoffs.

Here’s a look at some other Raptors betting lines and NBA prop odds for the 2016-17 season (all odds from Pinnacle unless otherwise noted).

Raptors NBA Championship Odds

At +3600, the Raptors rank fifth on the NBA Championship Odds and third among teams in the Eastern Conference.

Raptors Eastern Conference Championship Odds

The Raptors pay +1000 to win the East. Cleveland is the favourite at -270, followed by the Celtics at +740.

Raptors Atlantic Division Odds

Boston Celtics -110
Toronto Raptors +110
New York Knicks: +1100
Philadelphia 76ers: +10000
Brooklyn Nets: +20000
(Odds from Bet365.com)

Raptors Playoff Odds

Yes: -5000
No: +1500
(Odds from Bet365.com)

NBA Championship Odds

Golden State Warriors: -130
Cleveland Cavaliers: +270
San Antonio Spurs: +690
Boston Celtics: +2800
Toronto Raptors: +3600
Oklahoma City Thunder: +5900

NBA MVP Odds

Steph Curry: +350
Russell Westbrook: +350
LeBron James: +410
Kevin Durant: +720
Kwhani Leonard: +740
James Harden: +900
Any Golden State Warriors player: +210

The post Raptors Projected To Win 50+ Games, Ranked Third In East appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

The two point spread bets covered by a combined total of 38 points, while our teaser was a bit of a sweat.

Miami not only covered the +8.5 against the Steelers, they blew out Pittsburgh 30-15, continuing the Steelers’ pattern of playing poorly on the road. Roethlisberger left the game with an injury, but we’re not sure it mattered.

And Andy Reid improved to 16-2 following the bye week in his career as the Chiefs hammered the Raiders 26-10 in Oakland, easily covering as 1-point road favourites.

In our teaser, the Rams fell by 3 points in Detroit to cover +9, but we needed a fourth-quarter rally by the Seahawks to complete the win. Seattle looked home and cooled with a 17-3 lead at halftime, but Atlanta scored 21 points in the third quarter before the Seahawks answered with a touchdown and field goal in the last 5 minutes of regulation.

Now, in our best Bill Belichick voice, “On To Week 7.” Unfortunately, we lost a couple of work days this week to a cold and don’t have time for writeups this time.

(FYI: You can get these weekly free NFL picks emailed directly to your inbox. Just subscribe to our email list at the base of this article.)

1. Steelers +7.5 -105

We made this bet at Sports Interaction.

2. Lions -1 -110

We made this bet at Bodog.

3. Seahawks +7.5/Eagles +9 teaser

We made this bet at -110 odds at Pinnacle.

The post Week 7 NFL Betting Picks appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

The winners were our two point spread bets. The Redblacks earned a huge win in Hamilton to cover as 3-point underdogs, and the Roughriders obliterated the Argonauts 29-11 in a game that had a pick’ em line.

The loser came on a 2-team, 6-point teaser. Once again, we hit one leg of the teaser with the Alouettes covering +21 in Calgary, but the teaser lost when B.C. blew a 10-point lead in the final 3 minutes to lose by 3 to the Bombers. We had teased the Lions down to +0.5 and just needed a B.C. victory.

On to our Week 18 CFL betting picks.

Week 18 CFL Betting Lines

Friday, Oct. 21
Hamilton at Ottawa (Redblacks -3.5, O/U 53)
Toronto at Calgary (Stampeders -16.5, O/U 52)

Saturday, Oct. 22
Montreal at Saskatchewan (Roughriders -6.5, O/U 49)
Edmonton at B.C. (Lions -2, O/U 57.5)

Odds from Pinnacle.com as of Friday, Oct. 21

Tiger-Cats at Redblacks (Friday, 7 p.m. eastern)

This game is the back end of a home-and-home series that could end up determining the East Division champion. Ottawa beat the Tiger-Cats 30-29 last week in Hamilton and could lock up top spot in the East with a win here.

The Ticats were 3-point favourites last week and now the Redblacks are -3.5. If you give 3 points for home field advantage (which is standard in football), that means the point spread is basically the same as last week.

When we picked the Redblacks last week, we noted how both teams had been struggling recently but that there seemed like a lot more reason for optimism in Ottawa than Hamilton. Don’t really see how anything has changed following last week’s result. The Ti-Cats just seem lost right now, with Brandon Banks’ 2-game suspension the latest blow.

Still, Ottawa’s been bad at home all year, which is enough to keep us from laying over a field goal in this spot. Instead, we’ll take a shot at the Under 53. Coaches should be emphasizing the defensive side of the football after the teams combined for 59 points last week, and there’s a ton of rain forecast in Ottawa until Saturday night.

Argos at Stampeders (Friday, 9 p.m. eastern)

Last week, the Stamps laid 15 points to the Alouettes in what was the largest point spread we remember seeing this CFL season. Calgary didn’t cover that big number as Montreal scored a TD with 20 seconds left to backdoor the point spread, losing 22-8.

Now the Stamps are being asked to cover an even bigger number this week in another game they really shouldn’t care about that much. Calgary clinched first in the West a long time ago, and the Argos hardy look like a threat with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games, most of them by blowout.

However, it’s hard to know what to expect from Toronto here as well. Easy pass for us.

Alouettes at Roughriders (Saturday, 4 p.m. eastern)

Next to the 14-1-1 Stampeders, the Roughriders might be the hottest team in the CFL right now. They’ve won 4 in a row after opening the year with a 1-11 mark.

We expected Saskatchewan to turn things around under new coach Chris Jones, it just took a little longer than we thought. But now they’ve got things going in the right direction.

The problem with backing the Riders here, though, is that they’re being asked to cover a big number. Only 1 of Saskatchewan’s 5 wins this year came by more than 3 points, and that was last week’s blowout of the hapless Argos.

Roughriders should win this game, but we don’t want to mess with this point spread. Montreal is still technically alive for the playoffs and shouldn’t be mailing this one in.

We’ll tease Saskatchewan down to -0.5 with a 6-point teaser.

Eskimos at Lions (Saturday, 7 p.m. eastern)

The wheels seem to be coming off the Lions wagon at a bad time. They’ve lost 2 in a row, and 3 of 4. Getting swept by the Blue Bombers in a home-and-home series dropped BC to third in the West, though they could pull even with Winnipeg with a win this week.

There was also a story in the Vancouver Sun this week about how things don’t look great for the Lions franchise overall. The team is much better this year and playing exciting football, yet doesn’t draw flies to its home games. A crowd of about 20,000 is expected for this game, which can’t give the home team that much of a boost.

Edmonton is coming off a bye and seems to have figured things out lately, winning its last 3. Even when B.C. wins games, they’re often close – with 10 of their 15 games this year being decided in the final 3 minutes, according to the Vancouver Sun.

In an important game for both teams, we’ll bet on things being close. Edmonton will be the other leg of our 6-point teaser as we move the Eskimos to +8.

Week 18 CFL Betting Picks Recap

2 bets for us this week: Ottawa/Hamilton Under 53, and a 2-team, 6-point teaser of Saskatchewan -0.5 and Edmonton +8.

We got the Redblacks/Ticats Under 53 at -105 odds at Pinnacle, and placed the Roughriders/Eskimos teaser at -110 odds at Bodog.

As always, if you’re playing 2-team teasers, we recommend you use Pinnacle or Bodog as they offer the best 2-team teaser odds.

Good luck, and see you next week!

The post CFL Betting Picks For Week 18 (18-12, +4.75 Units YTD) appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

After getting on the series scoreboard Tuesday with a 5-1 win at Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays pay +461 to win the next 3 games and advance to the World Series (odds from www.Pinnacle.com).

Those odds suggest Toronto has approximately an 18% chance of becoming just the second team ever to overcome an 0-3 series deficit in the MLB playoffs (2004 Red Sox were the other). They also suggest the Jays have as good a chance of beating the Indians as Donald Trump has of winning the U.S. election.

Toronto is a -180 favourite Wednesday to win Game 5 at home and force the ALCS back to Cleveland, where the Jays could also be favourites in Game 6 based on the likely starting pitching matchup. That could leave things up to a Game 7 Saturday in which Corey Kluber – the pitcher Toronto beat Tuesday – starts for the Indians, and Cy Young candidate Aaron Sanchez might get the ball for the Jays.

Besides, the Jays are no longer attempting to come back from 0-3; they’re only down 1-3. And plenty of teams have overcome 1-3 series deficits in the MLB playoffs before.

The post Down 3-1 in ALCS, Jays’ Chances As Good As Trump’s appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

Pinnacle sportsbook listed the Jays as +240 underdogs in the series after the first 2 games, which Cleveland won 2-0 and 2-1. +240 odds translates to a 29.4% probability.

If you still think the Jays could win this series more often than 3 times out of 10, you’ve got yourself a great bet. Toronto has yet to play a home game in the ALCS, and is nearly a -200 favourite in Game 3, when Marcus Stroman will face Trevor Bauer.

In fact, the Jays are widely expected to have the better starting pitcher in any remaining game of the series other than when Corey Kluber starts for Cleveland

However, you might also be burning your money taking the Jays now, especially if you believe Jose Bautista’s correct in thinking there’s an MLB conspiracy to have the Indians advance to the World Series.

Toronto opened the series as -140 favourites to beat the Indians and advance to its first World Series since 1993.

Before the ALCS began, the Jays were given nearly 2:1 odds to win the World Series, trailing only the Chicago Cubs as the World Series betting favourites.

The post Blue Jays Given 29% Chance Of Coming Back Vs Tribe appeared first on SportsbookBonus.ca.

The Chargers continued to prove they’re one of the more under-rated commodities in the NFL, battling the Raiders all the way to the final minute in Oakland to lose by 3 points but cover the +4 for us. San Diego followed that up this week with a Thursday Night Football victory over the Broncos, and they entered the week leading the entire NFL in most minutes played with a lead.

Our losses came on Houston +7 in Minnesota (the Texans came up way short once again in a matchup with an elite team on the road, and there’s real question whether they made a mistake signing Brock Osweiler) and a teaser on the Broncos and Steelers (Pittsburgh pounded the Jets, but Denver lost at home to the Falcons).

It’s been three 2-1 weeks and two 1-2 weeks for us so far this year. Hopefully these Week 6 NFL betting picks are the time we break out for our first sweep of the campaign.

(FYI: You can get these weekly free NFL picks emailed directly to your inbox. Just subscribe to our email list at the base of this article.)

1. Dolphins +8.5 (-110)

Gase: You can ask me 100 times, Ryan Tannehill will be in there the rest of the seasonhttps://t.co/4zNcj61KWx pic.twitter.com/yUqUAu04Pf

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) October 10, 2016

Going with a buy low, sell high mentality here, which is usually a pretty successful way to approach NFL betting. The Dolphins’ stock couldn’t be much lower right now, coming off a depressing home loss to the Titans, and Pittsburgh’s stock is skyhigh following blowout home wins over the Chiefs and Jets.

The key about those Steeler wins over KC and New York is that they came at home. Pittsburgh has been one of the most extreme home-away dichotomies in the NFL in recent years, and that’s continued this season.

Pittsburgh’s road performances are even worse when facing mediocre teams. In their last 29 road games against teams with losing records at home, the Steelers are an awful 6-22-1 against the spread, indicating an inability to cover large numbers on the highway.

It’s a leap of faith to back Miami right now, no doubt about it. But we can’t forget this is the same Dolphins team that nearly won in Seattle in Week 1 and lost to the Patriots by 7 in New England (the Pats were without Tom Brady, but still), and just hope Miami shows up with some pride on Sunday.

We were able to catch +8.5 points with the Dolphins at Bodog, a sportsbook that often inflates the point spreads on popular teams like the Steelers.

2. Chiefs -1 (-113)

#RaiderNation is on a roll right now but Andy Reid is 15-2 when coming off a bye – Close call here#KCvsOAK Report: https://t.co/d8cH8HpAc4 pic.twitter.com/raXLqxxm3P

— Real Football (@RealFootballTV) October 14, 2016

Trends can be a dangerous thing to follow blindly, but they can also be helpful if you can understand why that particular trend exists.

Andy Reid’s record off a bye is one trend we believe in. Over his career with the Eagles and now the Chiefs, Reid’s teams are 15-2 after a week off. That record is straight up and doesn’t account for the point spread, but this spread of -1 simply asks the Chiefs to win anyway.

We like Oakland a lot (picked them at 3:1 odds to win the AFC West before the season began) but they might be an over-rated squad right now at 4-1. The Raiders’ 4 wins have come by a combined total of 12 points, and victims include the Falcons and Titans. Their defence has also been a turnstile, ranking last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards allowed, and 27th against the run.

A couple more trends to throw your way: Kansas City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 visits to Oakland, and the road team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings between the teams. In a fierce AFC West rivalry, we expect a very focused Chiefs team to prevent the Raiders from pulling a little further away in the division standings.

The Chiefs were -1.5 at some sportsbooks as of Friday morning, but we grabbed -1 at -113 odds at Pinnacle.

3. Seahawks/Rams 2-Team, 6-Point Teaser (-110)

NFL Week 6 game picks: @HarrisonNFL writes Seahawks will top Falcons this weekend https://t.co/RkqUWTBSDi pic.twitter.com/xMikXDBbUy

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) October 14, 2016

Love getting Seattle in a step-up spot, and they’re coming off a bye to boot.

The Seahawks lead the NFL in total defence, are 3rd against the pass and 7th against the run. Atlanta was slowed up last week in Denver by the tough Broncos defence, but Denver could only manage 16 points with Paxton Lynch at QB.

We don’t think 23 will be enough for Atlanta this week, and we’ll challenge the Falcons to upset an elite defence on the road for the second straight week. Seattle is a 6-point favourite, so by teasing them 6 points, we just need the Seahawks to win the game.

Bold predictions: Todd Gurley gashes Lions, finally rushes for more than 100 yards https://t.co/Mko1bwJXAT pic.twitter.com/xjikyyr5fs

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) October 14, 2016

LA is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Bills when they were missing 3 starters on the defensive line, which proved to be a very tough matchup against a Buffalo offence that thrives on moving the ball on the ground. The Rams could still be without at least 2 of those starters this week, but Detroit isn’t as much of a running threat.

We’re also fading the Lions’ ability to win any game easily. Detroit has won just two games by more than 8 points since the start of last season, and teasing the Rams up from +3 to +9 requires the Lions to win by double digits.

We recommend making this bet at either Pinnacle or Bodog, since they have the best NFL teaser odds on 2-team, 6-point teasers.

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According to Bodog, 6 or 7 games is the most likely length of the showdown between the Jays and Indians, which gets underway Friday in Cleveland. The Indians will also host Game 2 of the series Saturday before the series shifts to Toronto Monday for Games 3, 4 and, if necessary, 5.

You can bet on the ALCS going at least 6 games at Bodog, which lists that prop at -210 odds. That means you’d have to bet $210 for every $100 you want to win on that wager.

Or you can bet on the exact number of games the series will last. 6 and 7 games are both favoured, paying +190 odds. A 5-game series pays +260, and a 4-game sweep by either team could net you $650 for every $100 risked.

The Blue Jays are -145 favourites at Bodog to defeat the Indians and advance to their first World Series since 1993.

Here’s a rundown of some other prop bets Bodog is offering for the ALCS:

ALCS Series Handicap

In this bet, you take a team to win the series on a handicap to either improve your payout or your chances of winning.

For example, if you take the Blue Jays -2.5 games, they’d have to win the series by at least 3 games (either 4-1 or 4-0) in order to cash your bet, but you’d get $350 return on every $100 risked.

• Blue Jays +2.5 games: -800
• Indians -2.5 games: +500
• Blue Jays -2.5 games: +350
• Indians +2.5 games: -500
• Blue Jays +1.5 games: -280
• Indians -1.5 games: +220
• Blue Jays -1.5 games: +155
• Indians +1.5 games: -190

ALCS Series Correct Score

This wager allows you to predict the exact outcome of the series, including the number of games, with a big payout if you’re right.

• Blue Jays win 4-0: +900
• Blue Jays win 4-1: +500
• Blue Jays win 4-2: +400
• Blue Jays win 4-3: +350
• Indians win 4-0: +2000
• Indians win 4-1: +650
• Indians win 4-2: +500
• Indians win 4-3: +500

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