Sportsbooker-Vision Radar Flex

Hong Kong Carlsberg Cup Live

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 07:09:00 +0000

Hong Kong Selection XI (HK) Vs Muang Thong United (Thai)
Live Stream Link

Asian Handicap:
HK Selection XI -0.5

Pick: Muang Thong United +0.5 (Asian HDP;FT)

LIVE NOW: 15:00 (GMT+8)

Flash Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 18:06:00 +0000

CD Nacional
GD Estoril Praia

Estoril +1/2 - (Needs a Win)

Porto

V.Setubal

V.Setubal +1 1/4 (Both on 4 Points, needing to win, equal on goal difference; in a cup game, Porto would still be favorites to take this game at home; though by 1 goal would be my pick).

*Both would be watertight matches going by the current cup standings.

Setubal +1 1/4 (

Setubal +1 1/4 (Needs to Win to secure their own 2nd spot;risk of being knocked out if Estoril Wins and they fail to; Setubal probably won't win this game; though; with the cup being the only chance of silverware for mid-table teams in the league, you can count on V.Settubal to be going all out in this match-up against top of table , Porto.

COLOMBIA POSTOBON BEST ODDS (LIVE BETTING MARKETS)

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 01:17:00 +0000

COLOMBIA POSTOBON - Junior Barranquilla Vs Deportivo Pasto Live

Watch live video from catracho_mx on www.justin.tv

Head 2 Head

Match	Date	Team	Result	Team	Handicap	Odds	Over Under (2.5)	Odd Even	HT	Over Under (0.75)
COL D1	12-11-22	Deportivo Pasto	1-0	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	0/0.5	Win			1-0
COL Cup	12-09-20	Deportivo Pasto	3-0	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	0/0.5	Win			1-0
COL Cup	12-09-13	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	2-3	Deportivo Pasto	0.5	Loss			0-1
COL D1	12-08-12	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	2-0	Deportivo Pasto	0.5	Win			0-0
COL D1	12-02-13	Deportivo Pasto	1-1	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	0/0.5	Loss1/2			0-0
COL Cup	09-11-05	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	1-2	Deportivo Pasto	0.5	Loss			0-1
COL Cup	09-10-29	Deportivo Pasto	3-1	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	0/0.5	Win			2-0
COL D1	09-08-10	Deportivo Pasto	1-0	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	0/0.5	Win			0-0
COL D1	09-03-02	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	2-0	Deportivo Pasto	0.5/1	Win			0-0
COL D1	08-10-27	Deportivo Pasto	1-1	Atletico Junior Barranquilla					0-0
COL D1	08-04-28	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	2-0	Deportivo Pasto					1-0
COL D1	07-09-24	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	1-0	Deportivo Pasto					0-0
COL D1	07-04-09	Deportivo Pasto	1-1	Atletico Junior Barranquilla					0-0
COL D1	06-09-04	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	1-0	Deportivo Pasto					0-0
COL D1	06-03-20	Deportivo Pasto	2-0	Atletico Junior Barranquilla					2-0
COL D1	05-10-20	Atletico Junior Barranquilla	1-0	Deportivo Pasto

Atletico Junior Barranquilla - Goal Statistic

	High Odds Win	High Odds Draw	High Odds Loss	Low Odds Win	Low Odds Draw	Low Odds Loss	Draw Odds Win	Draw Odds Draw	Draw Odds Loss
Total	62	5	50	49	1	44	3	6	4
Total	52.99%	4.27%	42.74%	52.13%	1.06%	46.81%	23.08%	46.15%	30.77%
Home	56	5	38	1	0	0	2	2	1
Home	56.57%	5.05%	38.38%	100%	0%	0%	40%	40%	20%
Neutral	1	0	7	4	0	2	0	2	1
Neutral	12.5%	0%	87.5%	66.67%	0%	33.33%	0%	66.67%	33.33%
Away	5	0	5	44	1	42	1	2	2
Away	50%	0%	50%	50.57%	1.15%	48.28%	20%	40%	40%

Total Win	Total Draw	Total Loss	Home Win	Home Draw	Home Loss	Neutral Win	Neutral Draw	Neutral Loss	Away Win	Away Draw	Away Loss
8	4	8	7	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	7
40%	20%	40%	63.64%	27.27%	9.09%	0%	0%	0%	11.11%	11.11%	77.78%

Deportivo Pasto - Goal Statistic

	High Odds Win	High Odds Draw	High Odds Loss	Low Odds Win	Low Odds Draw	Low Odds Loss	Draw Odds Win	Draw Odds Draw	Draw Odds Loss
Total	23	0	26	23	0	24	4	1	0
Total	46.94%	0%	53.06%	48.94%	0%	51.06%	80%	20%	0%
Home	22	0	22	0	0	0	3	1	0
Home	50%	0%	50%	0%	0%	0%	75%	25%	0%
Neutral	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neutral	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Away	1	0	4	23	0	24	1	0	0
Away	20%	0%	80%	48.94%	0%	51.06%	100%	0%	0%

SBVision Alliance Brand: Rosario Vs Gimnasia Live And Betting Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 23:15:00 +0000

SBVision Alliance Brand: Rosario Vs Gimnasia Live And Betting Preview: Live @ SV04 Rosario Vs Gimnasia Live Preview The two clubs have been playing out low scoring affairs eve...

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE LIVE

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 20:15:00 +0000

FEATURED MATCH SV01 - AC MILAN VS ZENITH ST. >>>
FEATURED C.P.L. MATCH: DORTMUND VS MAN CITY >>>

Colombia Primera A: Atletico Nacional Medellin Vs Itagui Ditaires Live

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 03:14:00 +0000

Colombia Primera A: Atletico Nacional Medellin Vs Itagui Ditaires Live
>>>

Argentina Clausura: Estudiantes La Plata Vs San Martin San Juan Live

>>>

Mexico Apertura Final: Club Tijuana Vs Deportivo Toluca

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 03:06:00 +0000

Mexico Apertura Final: Club Tijuana Vs Deportivo Toluca

Tijuana	Matches	Win	Draw	Lose
Overall	21	11	8	2
Home	10	6	4	0
Away	11	5	4	2
Toluca	Matches	Win	Draw	Lose
Overall	21	13	4	4
Home	10	7	2	1
Away	11	6	2	3

Team	Matches	Win	Draw	Lose	Score	Goals Scored	Goals Allowed
Tijuana	3	1	2	0	3:2	1	0.67
Toluca	3	0	2	1	2:3	0.67	1

Past H2H Results and Match Fixtures

SoccerPunter analyze and breakdown the team performance based on results for the past few seasons.

Click on the + to view the goalscorers, yellow and red cards for the matches.

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away	HT
2012-12-03	Liga MX 2012/2013	Toluca	08:00	Tijuana
2012-11-30	Liga MX 2012/2013	Tijuana	11:00	Toluca
2012-10-08	Liga MX 2012/2013	Tijuana	1 - 0	Toluca	0-0	-
J. Gandolfi 4'
				34' L. Tejada
C. Pellerano 37'
D. Riascos 50'			1 - 0
				57' Sinha
				74' Sinha
				74' Lucas Silva
F. Martínez 82'
P. Aguilar 90'
2012-02-26	Liga MX 2011/2012	Tijuana	1 - 1	Toluca	1-1	-
J. Corona 15'			1 - 0
D. Riascos 24'
			1 - 1	25' I. Alonso
J. Núñez 26'
J. Santiago 34'
J. Santiago 56'
				79' A. Ríos
				90' Sinha
2011-09-12	Liga MX 2011/2012	Toluca	1 - 1	Tijuana	0-0	-
				17' F. Arce
				31' J. Núñez
				63' J. Gandolfi
				65' Leandro Augusto
I. Alonso 66'			1 - 0
A. Torres 71'
				74' Leandro Augusto
			1 - 1	90' J. Sand

Liga MX Apertura 2012/2013 Table

#	Soccer Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1	Toluca	17	10	4	3	28	17	+11	34
2	Tijuana	17	9	7	1	23	15	+8	34
3	León	17	10	3	4	34	17	+17	33
4	América	17	8	7	2	28	15	+13	31
5	Morelia	17	6	9	2	25	16	+9	27
6	Cruz Azul	17	6	8	3	22	15	+7	26
7	Monterrey	17	5	8	4	23	23	+0	23
8	Guadalajara	17	6	5	6	17	17	+0	23
9	Santos Laguna	17	6	5	6	22	26	-4	23
10	Pumas UNAM	17	7	2	8	18	23	-5	23
11	Jaguares	17	6	4	7	23	24	-1	22
12	Tigres UANL	17	5	6	6	23	18	+5	21
13	Pachuca	17	5	6	6	13	20	-7	21
14	Atlante	17	5	5	7	23	28	-5	20
15	San Luis	17	3	6	8	14	24	-10	15
16	Puebla	17	3	4	10	16	27	-11	13
17	Atlas	17	1	9	7	16	24	-8	12
18	Querétaro	17	1	4	12	11	30	-19	7

Liga MX Clausura 2012/2013 Table

#	Soccer Team	D
1	América	+0
2	Atlante	+0
3	Atlas	+0
4	Cruz Azul	+0
5	Guadalajara	+0
6	Jaguares	+0
7	León	+0
8	Monterrey	+0
9	Morelia	+0
10	Pachuca	+0
11	Puebla	+0
12	Pumas UNAM	+0
13	Querétaro	+0
14	San Luis	+0
15	Santos Laguna	+0
16	Tigres UANL	+0
17	Tijuana	+0
18	Toluca	+0

Club Tijuana has achieved 5 W 3D 0L in 8 Mexico Apertura Home Games This Season, and this puts them at the very top half of the form table on home ground; While Toluca's away record in 9 games is: 4W 2D 3L this season, and this has also left them in the very top half in terms of away form.

When looking at Club Tijuana home performance in league points, Club Tijuana’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the mid 6 with an average of 3 points per game.

Tijuana has an exceptional record in only a single loss in the last 19 matches; and the Tijuana Stadio has become a fortress of sorts. Tijuana's home form and performances this season has produced a different brand of football in Mexico, setting the league alight, together with Club Leon (2 relatively new Apertura Clubs). Having beaten Toluca 1-0 in the previous encounter, Tijuana is in the mood to have a go at Toluca, and beating the leaders would certainly send a message to the other clubs and the South American Football Scene, which would certainly prove to be a motivating factor for a victory, especially on Home ground where their supporters have been very faithful and passionate throughout.

Toluca, on the other hand certainly won't be pushovers. Instead of sitting back and holding for a draw, as many expects and have predicted, I will not agree on this in particular. Toluca's style of play has never and will not be a team holding out for a result; even if they will want to or intentions, their style of play totally contradicts in all aspects. An attacking team, out-and-out, even when they are leading, Toluca, similar to Santos Laguna are a team which never fails to excite and deliver a match worth watching for the full 90 Mins.

Despite the records and history which is definitely against Toluca, records count for nothing in a match like this and especially in the mexican league as well, where records are easily broken. It all will boil down to how each team starts in the initial 15-20 Mins, and we can practically predict which way the match will move towards.

All in all, my prediction on the Asian Hdp: Toluca+1/4 : Draw : 1-1 : TG: 2-3 Goals

Till then, Enjoy the Match!

Champions League Betting Trends Trends You Need to Know for Champions League Winner Betting

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 05:45:00 +0000

NEXT ARTICLE SOON >>

014 World Cup Betting Danger in Betting Against the Minnows

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 05:43:00 +0000

With qualification for the 2014 World Cup underway, punters will be looking to make a profit backing against the “minnows” of international football to get heavily beaten. This article sets out to see if betting against these teams is a viable strategy, and whether these “minnows” perform as badly as bettors anticipate.

Every qualifying campaign sees a number of “minnow” nations – San Marino, Andorra, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein and Malta – go toe-to-toe with the best soccer nations Europe has to offer, with results sometimes resembling rugby scores.

By investigating the past five World Cup qualification campaigns we have looked at whether the reputation of the “minnows” is well earned or based on inaccurate preconceptions.

World Cup Total Goals Market

The average number of goals scored in ties involving one of the five“minnows” over the last five World Cup qualifying campaigns is above three goals. This doesn’t mean however, that betting “over” 3 goals is a sure thing in minnow games.

In fact, this figure has been skewed by a small number of heavy defeats in the past; these outliers affect the overall average, meaning the punter should either overlook the anomalies, or work out the median or mode before making a bet.

For example, on average 2.5 goals were scored in games involving the Faroe Islands in their 2010 World Cup qualification campaign. However, 60% of the games saw fewer goals scored, with two 4-0 defeats and a 5-0 away loss at France bumping up the mean.

Another example is highlighted by Liechtenstein ‘s 1998 World Cup qualification campaign. The average number of goals scored involving Liechtenstein was 5.5 goals, however 70% of their games witnessed fewer goals. Their average was inflated after suffering defeats such as 11-1, 8-0 and 8-1.

Bettors must beware their preconceptions regarding these sides in order to bet effectively. The Faroe Islands, for example, have a reputation for heavy defeats, but have lost by five or more goals in qualifying just six times in the last 18 years.

World Cup Handicap Market

The poor reputation carried by the minnow sides has an important implication for the handicap market. Looking at the Faroe Island’s last five World Cup Qualifying campaigns, the side averaged a deficit of 2.3 goals per game. In truth, however, the side has lost by less than this 62% of the time.

Andorra and Liechtenstein also lost by less than their average deficit the majority of the time – at 59.4% and 55%.

For other minnows, the negative connotations prove more accurate. San Marino lose by less than their average just 43.4% of the time, while Malta loss by less than their average deficit 44%.

This showcases that there are a number of external factors which must be taken into consideration before placing a bet on the handicap market; going by the average deficit goals per game is a starting point, but not an infallible rule.

External Factors Effecting “Minnows”

Before betting on World Cup qualifiers involving “minnows” every punter should consider a number of external factors that may affect the result.

External factors such as squad information, group dynamics, form, travel and the pitch should all be taken into consideration.

Minnow nations will have limited funding to maintain their pitch, and will have a small stadium with a tiny capacity, which could affect the way visiting nations perform. The minnow surroundings take the players out of their comfort zone - visiting players could become demotivated, while the pitch will not help a passing game.

Another external factor to take into consideration is the mentality of minnow nations. A draw is like a win for a minnow nation, and they often set up to keep a clean sheet at all costs, so to score against them can become frustrating for visiting nations.

For example, how motivated is a major nation going to be after travelling hundreds of miles on a Tuesday night to play a “minnow” on a poor pitch, when their best players have been rested and they have already qualified for the World Cup?

Pinnacle Sports offer the best odds for International and World Cup 2014 soccer, so Click here for the latest odds.

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 05:36:00 +0000

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

The law of large numbers

In the 17th century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli created the Law of Large Numbers, and asserted that even the stupidest man understands that the larger the sample, the more likely it is to represent the true probability of the observed event. For betting, this is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy, and can be a very costly misconception.

The Law of Large Numbers

Using a fair coin toss as an example (where the chance of hitting heads and tails has an equal 50% chance), Bernoulli calculated that as the number of coin tosses gets larger, the percentage of heads or tails results gets closer to 50%, while the difference between the actual number of heads or tails thrown also gets larger.

It’s the second part of Bernoulli’s theorem that people have a problem understanding – which has led to it being coined the “Gambler’s Fallacy”. If you tell someone that a coin has been flipped nine times, landing on heads each time, their prediction for the next flip tends to be tails.

This is incorrect, however, as a coin has no memory, so each time it is tossed the probability of heads or tails is the same: 0.5 (a 50% chance).

Bernoulli’s discovery showed that as a sample of fair coin-tosses gets really big – e.g. a million – the distribution of heads or tails would even out to around 50%. Because the sample is so large, however, the expected deviation from an equal 50/50 split can be as large as 500.

This equation for calculating the statistical standard deviation gives us an idea what we should expect:

0.5 × √ (1,000,000) = 500

While the expected deviation is observable for this many tosses, the nine-toss example mentioned earlier isn’t a large enough sample for this to apply.

Therefore the nine tosses are like an extract from the million-toss sequence – the sample is too small to even-out like Bernoulli suggests will happen over a sample of a million tosses, and instead can form a sequence by pure chance.

Applying Distribution

There are some clear applications for expected deviation in relation to betting. The most obvious application is for casino games like Roulette, where a misplaced belief that sequences of red or black or odds or even will even out during a single session of play can leave you out of pocket. That’s why the Gambler’s Fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy.

In 1913, a roulette table in a Monte Carlo casino saw black come up 26 times in a row. After the fifteenth black, bettors were piling onto red, assuming the chances of yet another black number were becoming astronomical, thereby illustrating an irrational belief that one spin somehow influences the next.

Another example could be a slot machine, which is in effect a random number generator with a set RTP (Return to Player). You can often witness players who have pumped considerable sums into a machine without success embargoing other players from their machine, convinced that a big win must logically follow their losing run.

Of course, for this tactic to be viable, the bettor would have to have played an impractically large number of times to reach the RTP.

With an understanding of the Law of Large Numbers, and the law (or flaw) of averages consigned to the rubbish bin, you won’t be one of Bernouilli’s ‘stupid men’.

Poisson Distribution Poisson Distribution for Soccer Betting

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 05:09:00 +0000

It is possible to calculate the likely number of goals that will be scored in a football match using Poisson Distribution with historical data. In fact, a probability for every possible match outcome can be established.

If we wanted to calculate the possible outcomes for a match, we’d first need to calculate a value for each team’s “Attack” and “Defence Strength” before you can use Poisson Distribution to calculate the likely number of goals in a game.

Using Newcastle vs. Tottenham in the 2012/13 Premier League opener as an example, we’d need to collect relevant data to give an indication of what this season’s performance could be like. We used data from the previous season, as the 38 games provide a good sample size to average-out freak results or what are called outliers.

To calculate Attack Strength, first work out the number of Premier League goals scored at home (604) and away (462) in 2011/12. To get the average attack strength, average the number of goals scored per team, per game, per season. In mathematical terms, that’s:

In 2011/12, that was 604/20/19 at home and 462/20/19 away, equalling an average of 1.589 goals per game at home and 1.216 away. The difference from this average is what constitutes a team’s “Attack Strength”.

Poisson Distribution Betting – Attack Strength vs. Defence Strength

We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack and Defence Strength of both Newcastle and Tottenham for their match on August 18th, 2012.

To calculate the Attack Strength:

1. Take the number of goals scored at home last season by the home team (Newcastle: 29) and divide by the number of home games (29/19): 1.526
2. Divide this value by the season’s average home goals scored per game (1.526/1.589), to get the “Attack Strength”: 0.960. This shows that Newcastle scored 4% less goals at home than a hypothetical “average” Premier League side.
To calculate the Defence Strength:

1. Take the number of goals conceded away last season by the away team (Tottenham: 27) and divide by the number of away games (27/19): 1.263.
2. Divide this by the season’s average goals conceded by an away team per game (1.263/19) to get the “Defence Strength”: 0.795. Tottenham conceded 20.5% less goals than an “average” Premier League side on the road.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the attacking team might score:

**In this case, that’s 0.960* 0.795 * 1.611 (the average number of home goals scored last season), which equates to Newcastle scoring 1.213 goals.**

We now need to work out how many goals Tottenham are likely to score. We use the same method as above, but use the number of goals Tottenham have scored on away from home (making an Attack Strength of 0.856) and the number of goals Newcastle have conceded at home (making their Defence Strength 1.359).

Putting that into the above formula, we calculated that Tottenham are likely to score 1.415 goals.

Poisson Distribution Betting – Predicting Multiple Match Outcomes

Of course, no games end 1.213 vs. 1.415 – this is simply the average. Poisson Distribution, a formula created by French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, allows us to use these figures to distribute 100% of probability across a range of goal outcomes for each side. The results are shown in the table below:

The formula itself looks like this: P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!, however, we can use online tools such as this Poisson Distribution Calculator to do most of the equation for us.

All we need to do is enter the different goals outcomes (0-5) in the Random Variable (x) category, and the likelihood of a team scoring (for instance, Tottenham at 1.415) in the average rate of success, and the calculator will output the probability of that score.

This example shows that there is a 0.243 chance that Tottenham won’t score at all, but the side is equally as likely to get two goals. Newcastle, on the other hand, are mostly likely to score once (0.361), but are also more likely to score none (0.297) than put two past Tottenham (0.219).

Hoping for a five-nil drubbing? The probability is 0.34% if Tottenham are the scorers, or 0.16% for Newcastle to do it.

As both scores are independent (mathematically-speaking), you can see that both teams are most likely to score one goal. If you multiply the two probabilities together, you’ll get the probability of the 1-1 outcome – 0.153 or 12.4%.

Now you know how to calculate outcomes, you should compare your result to a bookmaker’s odds to help see how they differentiate.

For example, taking into account all possible draw combinations (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 and 5-5), this method gives a probability of 0.261 or 26.1% – which translates to odds of 2.855. Pinnacle Sports’ odds are 3.560 (a 28% probability).

Therefore if last season’s form was a perfect indicator of this season’s results betting on a draw would be a good bet, but unfortunately it isn’t as simple as that, which is why pure Poisson analysis has limitations.

Poisson Distribution Betting – The Limits of Poisson Distribution

Poisson Distribution is a simple predictive model that doesn’t allow for a lot of factors. Situational factors – such club circumstances, game status etc. – and subjective evaluation of the change of each team during the transfer window are completely ignored. In this case, it means the huge x-factor of André Villas-Boas’ first Premier League game in charge of Tottenham is entirely ignored.

Correlations are also ignored, such as the widely recognised pitch effect that shows that matches have some tendency to be either high or low scoring.

The system is of greatest benefit over a long period of time – using it for a whole season’s worth of games, rather than one-off matches.

These are particularly important areas in minor league games, which can gives punters an edge against bookmakers that is hard to achieve in major leagues, given the expertise that modern bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports possess.

One issue is for sure you want to beat the bookmakers at their own game, along with getting an edge – from Poisson or other modelling – it is crucially important to ensure you get the best odds available, which will usually be found at Pinnacle Sports.

How Bookies Work? (Explaining How Bookmakers Work with a Coin)

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 05:06:00 +0000

There are two groups of gamblers, those who hope to win and those who plan to win. By understanding how bookmakers work, you can calculate how to become more profitable with your betting and transform your losses into wins.

The essence of understanding how bookmakers work is understanding where to place a bet. Most novice punters make this mistake because they don’t understand how bookmakers work.

Bookmakers make a profit by pricing their betting markets so that the odds offered do not represent the statistical probability of the event.

For example, betting on a coin toss statistically represents a 50/50 chance (2.0 in decimal odds) on either outcome – heads or tails. You bet £10 to win £10, making this a 100% market.

Bookmakers create markets that go above 100% to create an edge, which is where the bookmaker makes its money.

For the coin toss, bookmakers would offer heads or tails at odds below 2.0, meaning you would have to bet more to win £10. If the odds were offered at 1.91, you would have to bet £11 to make £10, and the market percent is 104.7%. Therefore the bookmaker’s margin is 4.7%.

To work out Pinnacle Sports’ market percentage for any odds, use the betting calculator.

How Pinnacle Sports Works

Pinnacle Sports prices two-way markets – such as the five major European soccer leagues – to just 102%, which means it offers much better soccer odds than traditional bookmakers, where margins are as high as 110%.

Using the coin toss as an example, you would need to win close to 53% of bets to break even with traditional bookmakers, but by betting with Pinnacle Sports and its 102% market, you would need to win just 51% to break even.

2% may not seem much at first, however over the medium to long term, that difference is huge, and ultimately gives you the best chance to win more.

Take a look at how the variations in bookmaker margins impact their payouts over a season, and you’ll see why understanding about margins is so critical, as it makes a huge difference to your potential winnings, and every bettors wants to maximize their payout!

Mexico Apertura

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 01:27:00 +0000

Club Leon Vs Club Tijuana (Picks @ Betadvisor.com, by us), Shared here

As per the pre-match preview given on the Asian Handicap Pick; Under 2.5 would be my pick; besides being based on my correct score prediction and Hdp pick; Both teams are and have been very tight at the back, and the possibility of having a different decision from now would have been higher if the 2 clubs weren;t Leon and Tijuana.
This match between the 2 clubs definitely might go on the high end too, especially if an early goal or defensive error early on occurs; still, possibility is present regardless of match or confidence; thus, Under 2.5 , with a 1-1, 0-0 or 0-1 all being fine as well.

Can't really explain why Club Leon, who are overwhelming favorites and based on their impressive victories this season and especially of late, I just never thought of backing them to take 3 point away from the game.
Well, I do know that they could prove me real wrong...If so, till then, we'll leave it post-match.

Good Luck!

*Am an In-Play bettor in real stakes, so, wonder if this comment can or will open up picks, while In-Play as well... :)

HDP: Tijuana +0.5 (188Bet @ 2.14 Odds And Pinnacle Sports @ 2.14 Odds) - Highest Odds of Bookmakers around.

TOTAL GOALS: Under 2.5 (188Bet @ 1.94 Odds And Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 Odds) – Highest Odds of Bookmakers around.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Betting Types Basic Bet Types Explained

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 21:25:00 +0000

Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by Pinnacle Sports; 1×2’s, Handicaps and Totals.

Basic Bet Types: 1×2’s

1×2 markets are the most common punters bet on and are the simplest way for a player to understand the cost of a bet. Take the 2012/13 Premier League opening week game between Everton (4.250), draw (3.790) and Manchester United (1.917) as an example.

If you staked £10 on Everton to win at Goodison Park, you would win £42.50 – although that would include your initial £10 stake. Therefore your profit would be £32.50. You would win nothing if the result ended in a defeat or draw for Everton.

A £10 bet on the draw would have returned you £37.90 (£27.90 profit and your £10 stake); while the same bet on United to win would see you pocket £19.17 (£9.17 profit).

Once you are familiar with 1×2′s the next step to understand how the value in 1×2 odds varies across bookmakers, thus impacting potential winnings.

Basic Bet Types: Handicaps

Betting on the handicap is valuable when one team is heavily favoured over their opponents. To counter the perceived bias in ability, bookmakers offer a handicap to level the playing field.

The handicap is factored into the final score to determine the game’s outcome for the purpose of the bet (which might be different from the actual result).

For example, the handicap for the 2012/13 Premier League opening week game between Everton and Manchester United is (+0.5, 2.020) for Everton and (-0.5, 1.917) for Man Utd.

If the result was 1-0 to United, bets on Man Utd would win as the 0.5 handicap is not enough to change the outcome. This is often called “covering the handicap”.

If the result was a 1-1 draw, however, bets on Everton would win, as the 0.5 handicap added to their score is enough to tip match in their favour.

The handicap can also differ by appearing as a split, such as “+0.5 & +1″ or “-0.5 & -1″. This takes your stake and effectively places two handicap bets – one at each option. Therefore you can win both bets, just one, or lose both.

Advanced bettors will understand the relationship between 1×2 and handicap odds and how to decide which option offers better value. This article helps introduce that concept.

Basic Bet Types: Totals

Totals bets are another basic bet type, and a popular alternative to 1×2’s and handicap bets. The focus is not on finding the winner of a particular event, but predicting the outcome of game variables e.g. total goals/runs/points or any other easily quantifiable variable.

Bookmakers offer the option for punters to bet on whether the total goals/points will be either OVER or UNDER their assessment of the game.

For Everton and Manchester United, the total goal mark is set at Over 2.5 (2.080) and Under 2.5 (1.909).

If you bet £10 on the game to be over 2.5 goals – and the result was 2-1 (a total of three goals) you would make a return of £20.80 (£10.80 profit), while you would have won nothing had you bet on the goals total to be under 2.5.

Betting Tipsters How to Pick a Betting Tipster and Avoid the Monkeys?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 21:20:00 +0000

Some bettors defer the betting selection process and use tipsters. Unfortunately, it’s easy to confuse whether a tipster’s track-record shows a statistically significant predictive ability, or just a good run of luck.

For example, there’s a tipster that, over five years, had a 100% track record of predicting tennis matches with an even probability of success – making $50,000 profit. Impressive, right? Not if you discovered that the star tipster was, in fact, a monkey.

Let’s say we run a simulation which sees 10,000 tennis tipsters (or monkeys, it really doesn’t matter) each with a 50% chance of either making $10,000 a year or losing $10,000 a year. If any tipster has a losing year, they are eliminated.

The tipsters/monkeys make their predictions by simply pushing one of two buttons. If we run the test for one year 5,000 of our tipsters would be $10,000 in profit and the same number $10,000 in the red and binned. In year two we would have 2,500 monkeys with perfect record and if we keep going by Year 5 we would have 313 monkeys from that original cohort that would statistically be able through pure luck to make successive accurate predictions and $50,000.

Confusing Survivors with Savants

This phenomenon is called survivorship bias, and it has huge significance in the real world of tipsters, because the successful tipster currently topping the tipster league table on hottips.com may just be a lucky monkey pushing a button.

What are the important factors that influence this process? The size of the original sample is critical. If you just focus on the winners in this process, ignoring all the other billions of monkeys producing gibberish, you’re being fooled by randomness. The simple fact is that by starting from a large enough sample, some of the participants will end up looking like a savant by pure luck.

The other critical factor is the probability of the event. Our example used a fair coin toss (50/50 chance of heads or tails), but in the real world a bookmaker will hold an edge. Re-running our test with higher margins produces fewer lucky winners: the lower the margin, the easier it is to achieve long-term success.

On a very basic level, a good judge of a tipster would be whether they use Pinnacle Sports. Our odds are proven to be the best, so if they don’t use us, they clearly don’t know their stuff.

A Clever Illustration of Survivor-ship Bias

There are plenty of great examples of survivorship bias, but one particularly clever stunt by the famous English illusionist Derren Brown in a 2008 programme called ‘The System’ cleverly illustrated how deceiving it can be.

The show was based around the idea that a system could be developed to “guarantee a winner” of horse races – a claim regular bettors will be accustomed to. The show followed Khadisha, to whom Brown anonymously sent five correct horse race predictions in a row. There was no trickery at work either, the predictions were fair and accurate and the programme built towards a climax focusing on sixth and final prediction where, confidence boosted by Brown’s 100% tipping record Khadisha invested $4,000 of her own money… and lost.

Of course there was no system; Khadisha was simply the product of survivorship bias.

Brown had actually started by contacting 7,776 people (sufficient sample size), and split them into six groups, giving each group a different horse from a six-horse race. Note the number of variables is as equally important as the number of predictions in how quickly the original sample reduces in size.

A good judge of a tipster would be whether or not they use Pinnacle Sports?

After each race 5⁄6 of the people had lost and were dropped from the system (like our failing monkeys) and equal proportions of the survivors randomly sent another selection. Kadisha happened to be the ultimate survivor, winning five times in a row.

The fundamental lesson for sports betting is that anyone can hit a lucky run, and the more improbable something is; the bigger role luck has. If your typewriting monkey produces the Complete Works of Shakespeare from a sample of several billion, don’t get too excited. If he repeats the feat, however, take a closer look.

A Simple Formula to Evaluate a Tipster’s Abilities

A simple way to evaluate a tipster’s true abilities is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made:

For example, if he has 400 tips, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.

If the tipster is 20 selections above 200, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare.

Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.

How Do Free Bets Work? Learn How Free Bets Work & Their Drawbacks

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 21:16:00 +0000

How Do Free Bets Work?

Learn How Free Bets Work & Their Drawbacks

When choosing a bookmaker, incentives are especially appealing – but how do these free bets work? Unfortunately, a huge list of drawbacks prove that it’s not just free money.

Continuing on from our previous article – why free bets come at a cost – which discussed bonus offers' terms and conditions, this time we’ve investigated free bets from various bookmakers to learn exactly how they work, and their drawbacks.

One bookmaker – we’ll call them Regret ?ic?o> – has a £25 Free Bet offer for new accounts. Upon closer inspection, however, the T’s & C’s reveal that you have to place a bet with your own cash first, which also must contain at least one selection with odds of at least 2.00 (unless it is a four-fold or greater). The bookmaker will then match this bet with ‘promo cash’ up to £25.

Essentially, the bookmaker is telling you what to bet on with your own money before it will give you anything. And at 2.00 or greater, it’s a punt with a chance of winning under 50%.

If you do get lucky under these conditions, you will then only be allowed to withdraw any winnings from the promo cash once you have staked at least four times the value of your bonus and these bets are fully settled.

So even with the £25 in promo cash, you would need to place a further bet of up to at least £100 of your own money before you could make any withdrawals.

Free Bet Drawbacks:

▶ Free Bets usually require you to match the bookmaker’s investment with your own

▶ Bookmakers steer you into less profitable or losing markets

▶ To make a withdrawal you need to make ever more bets

More Money, More Conditions

Some bookmakers – like one we’ll call D?ddy ?owe??– try to lure customers by enticing them with a huge free bet – Power offer up to £250.

This isn’t a gratis gift: to get just £50 of that, you would need to place your own bet of £50. To get another £50 "free", you'd need ot place a further four bets of £50. After another five bets of £50, you then get another free £50, while a further ten £50 bets are needed to reach the full £250.

The whole scheme requires a punter to bet £1,000 of their own money in order to get £250 worth of free bets. Oh, and all bets must have minimum odds of 1.50. Now is that what you would expect from a £250 free bet?

Another bookmaker – we’ll call them Bet 123 – has a different take on its high-value free bet. It offers a bet of up to £200, provided it is matched by the same deposit amount, and played on events with a minimum odds of 1.50.

You then need to successfully rollover (rebet) your total deposit and bonus value three times before you can withdraw anything. This means that if you deposited £200, you would have to wager £1,200 (£200 Deposit x 3 + £200 Bonus x 3) before being able to withdraw anything. Additional conditions require that you do not place bets on Asian Handicap, Goal Line and Baseball 1x2 markets.

Risk Free Bet

A slightly different approach to incentives, but equally deceptive, is the risk-free bet. You qualify for the free bet only if you lose your first bet (up to a certain amount), which essentially gives you your money back. It's not this straightforward, however. This "risk-free" bet requires you to risk your own money first, and you have to bet more than the risk-free bet amount to be able to withdraw - so there is definitely a risk.

Another bookmaker offers risk-free bets – we’ll call this one DoBog – who give customers a £10 risk-free bet - although a £10 bet (from your own money) must first be placed on a bet with odds of at least 2.00 before you receive the £10 bonus. Like many other promotions, this bonus amount then needs to be rolled-over up to three times at odds of 2.00 or greater prior to any withdrawals.

Conclusion: Don’t Waste Time & Money

These "incentives" are a waste of both time and money. You have to spend time learning the exact terms and conditions if you want to see your cash again, while the poor value odds these bookmakers offer (having enticed bettors in with promo offers) end up costing bettors in the long run.

It’s far better to use a low-margin bookmaker like Pinnacle Sports, which offers much better odds than incentive-offering bookies.

Home Advantage in the Betting Point of View. Is it Important?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 16:43:00 +0000

Bettors can try to gain an advantage by working out their own odds applying techniques used by bookmakers. One of these is the measure of Home Field Advantage. For bettors, the challenge is to calculate Home Field Advantage more accurately than the bookmaker.

It is widely accepted that sporting teams perform better at home than if they were away or at a neutral ground.

For example, in the 2011/12 Premier League season 604 goals were scored by sides at home, while away teams found the back of the net 462 times. Predictably, the same pattern has emerged for every season since the football league’s inception in 1888.

While stats suggest every team performs better at home than on their travels, it’s impossible to create a universal home-field advantage handicap. This is due to soccer teams being fundamentally unbalanced, with some teams earning bigger home-field advantages than others.

This is noticeable when calculating the Home Field Advantage of any team in a league. To ensure our Home Field Advantage calculation example is accurate, we will use the only seven teams to have played consistently in the Premier League since its inception in 1992: Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Aston Villa.
Calculating Home Field Advantage for the Premier League

To calculate the Home Field Advantage, take the number of goals scored at home per season (HF) and minus the number of goals conceded at home (HA). Then divide by the number of home games played in a season (19).

HFA = (HF – HA) / 19

For our sample, we calculated individual results for the last three seasons and the average from the entire history of the Premier League:

All seven sides have a long-term positive Home Field Advantages – which is expected, considering none have been relegated, but Aston Villa for example had a negative HFA for the 2011/12 season.

Manchester United are the most successful team in Premier League history, so predictably they have the greatest Home Field Advantage.

United’s Home Field Advantage calculations suggest that in title winning seasons, like in 2010/11, they are likely to score two goals more than their rivals in home games at Old Trafford.
Calculating Home Field Advantage with Asian Handicaps

This information has particular significance in Asian Handicap betting. If a team has a home handicap less than their Home Field Advantage, it might make a sensible bet – although this is just one of a number of factors to consider.

You also have to take into account what data you feel is relevant. Should Arsenal’s pre-2005 form be considered, even if it is at another stadium? What about Chelsea and Manchester City, who’s Home Field Advantage increased significantly after their purchases by rich owners?
Influences on Home Field Advantage
Home Crowds

The influence on Home Field Advantage by home crowds is something, which needs to be looked at. Anfield is renowned for creating a volatile atmosphere for visiting teams, but could this have a negative effect on the home team if they underperform?

Despite a relatively poor past three seasons for Liverpool, where the side finished 7th, 6th, and 8th, their Home Field Advantage has been 1.47, 1.21 and 0.42 – higher (excluding last season) than rivals Arsenal and Spurs, who out-performed them in the league.

This suggests that Liverpool’s home performances are affected by Home Field Advantage more so than others. However, after a third season of underperforming, a new and largely untested manager and their worst league position since 1994, will the intense expactation start to work against Liverpool?
Stadium Familiarity

Arsenal moved from Highbury to the Emirates Stadium for the 2006 season, but failed to utilise their Home Field Advantage.

Before the move, the Gunners came to prominence in 1997/98, picking up five Premier League trophies before the end of the 2005 season. During this period, their average Home Field Advantage was 1.51.

Since moving to the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal are trophyless, while their average Home Field Advantage has dropped to 1.23.

The affect of moving stadium is amplified if you examine the pre- and post- move seasons. Between the two years, Arsenal’s Home Field Advantage dropped by 0.42.

However, by looking at Arsenal’s last three seasons their Home Field Advantage has been gradually increasing, which may suggest they now feel at “home” at the Emirates stadium.

This suggests that when moving from a “home” ground that a team is accustomed to, performances suffer as they adjust to new surroundings. Without a control, which is impossible, this cannot be properly tested.
Referees

Further proof for the influences on Home Field Advantage was researched by Harvard Research Assistant Ryan Boyko.

Boyko studied 5,000 Premier League games from 1992 to 2006 to discern any officiating bias for home teams.

His conclusion was that for every 10,000 home team fans, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals.

His study also showed that home teams are more likely to receive penalties, particularly from inexperienced referees. Therefore building referee profiles is also important when predicting a match’s outcome.
2011-12 Premier League Club Home Field Advantage Calculations

To get you started with your Home Field Advantage calculations for this season we have calculated the Home Field Advantages for all teams competing in the 2012-13 Premier League season:

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

UFC on FOX: Key Fight Statistics

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 16:17:00 +0000

Henderson vs. Diaz

FC on FOX betting has Ben Henderson as the 1.690* favourite to defend his lightweight title against Nate Diaz 2.310* on December 8^th at KeyArena, Washington. To increase your chances of winning on Henderson vs. Diaz betting, read the key fight statistics.

Diaz Holds Reach Advantage

Challenger Nate Diaz will enter the octagon as the 2.310* underdog despite winning his last three bouts and holding a 6″ reach advantage over Henderson.

Interestingly, Diaz has a 50% win ratio as an underdog throughout his last 17 MMA bouts – winning and losing two fights each.

The 27-year-old southpaw boasts a 16-7-0 record, and stands at 6’0″ and 155lbs. His strengths are his boxing skills, jiu jitsu and a never-say-die attitude.

Lightweight champion Ben Henderson is the 1.690* favourite and has won his last five bouts. Henderson’s record reads an impressive 16-2-0, while the 29-year-old has won four of his last five fights as a favourite.

Henderson will be making his second defence of the title after fighting Frankie Edgar in a mandatory re-match last time out.

Also a southpaw, the champion stands at 5’9″, 155lbs and has a reach of 70″, while his strengths are wrestling, submission, and ground and pound.

Striking – Punches Versus Kicks

Key to determining the victor will be the striking contest, as both men are sublime strikers.

Henderson’s striking is taekwondo-based, and will use unorthodox kicks, knees, punches and elbows. Diaz is a traditional boxer and has been known to spar with super middleweight champion Andre Ward.

Diaz will relentlessly apply pressure on Henderson, as he throws a large number of strategic, accurate punches in each fight. Looking at the two fighters striking stats, it shows 41% of Diaz’s attacks are through striking (Henderson averages just 22%).

Diaz lands an impressive 3.87 strikes per minute with 43% accuracy, compared to the champion’s 2.62 strikes per minute with 41% accuracy.

Defensively Henderson holds the advantage, however, absorbing just 1.59 strikes per minute, while avoiding 63% of his opponent’s attacks. Diaz receives more strikes (2.38 per minute) and has a lower defence (60%) success, however this is due to his more aggressive approach.

Wrestling – Henderson Should Dominate

The wrestling advantage is with Henderson, and is an area where Diaz has struggled in the past.

Henderson holds a big advantage in takedowns, with 51% of his attacks coming by way of takedown. The champion averages 2.96 takedowns every 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 48% and an impressive 62% defence.

Diaz’s takedown attempt ratio makes up just 17% of his attacks – 1.13 takedowns every15 minutes – with an accuracy of 28%. He is slightly better defensively as he rebuffs just less than half of his opponent’s takedown attempts.

Grappling – Diaz Edges It

When it comes to fighting on the mat both men are well-rounded submission artists.

Henderson has eight submission wins, while Diaz has 11 and has won two of his last three fights with submissions. Henderson’s submission attempts only make up 27% of his attacks however, while Diaz attempts 42% of his attacks through submissions.

Conditioning – Diaz Yet to Compete in Championship Rounds

Henderson is a brute with strong legs and hands, while Diaz relies on his explosive hand speed.

As this is a championship bout, it is worth noting that Diaz has never been past the third round in his career, so if the bout goes to the championship rounds he will be in unchartered territory.

In comparison, Henderson has now fought back-to-back twenty-five minute fights and has gone the championship distance four times in his career.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

DIRECT EXAMPLE - ARB. BET/SUREBET

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 19 Nov 2012 20:10:00 +0000

DIRECT EXAMPLE - ARB. BET/SUREBET

Apologies for the previous post on the 10 games stated. Am still not that familiar with programming codes' results (Appearance in the forum) before and upon posting. Edited too many times until I got to wait; thus one of the match with the best possible calculations as example here. (A full write-up and elaboration can be found at some of our portals, or probably would get someone to post it here soon)

Turk Telekom - Anadolu Efes

Over/Under 144.50

Outcome Bookmaker Odds Stake (s) Profits

Over Marathon 2.02 $52.36 105.77

Under 888Sport 2.22 $47.64 105.76

TOTAL: $100 (As in this case, $100 is the e.g. to calculate upon)

Calculations can be upon any amount you wiish to stake

.
In very short summary and most important factor for most:Making certain profits from sports betting by placing 'sure bets', also known as arbitrage bet and/or arbitrage betting. This form of betting strategy, simply said, is by placing one bet per outcome (Market Bet Type of Choices), and with the different bookmakers around for a/that particular sporting game or event. It is best and almost mandatory to have a few (around 3) bookmakers that you usually place bets with as well (this will relate to other strategies in a more direct manner as well).

In this example: $100 is staked.
Returns on both bet types are $106 each (rounded off), thus, earnings = $6.00 (a Sure-Wiin Amt based on $100 Capital).

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 19:47:00 +0000

Chelsea have not lost a home tie in the Champions League since a 1-0 semi-final first-leg defeat to Manchester United on April 6 2011

If selected, Branislav Ivanovic will be making the 300th appearance of his career.

The Blues have been in fine form at home this term, with just Juventus and Manchester United avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge.

Shakhtar have maintained their 100 per cent winning record in the Ukrainian league this season - Juventus are the only side to have avoided defeat against them so far.

Henrik Mkhitaryan (pictured right) is the top goalscorer in Europe's major leagues with 14 goals in 13 games so far this season. Mkhitaryan is 9/4 with Bet365 to score anytime in this match.

If Chelsea manage to score, it will be the 100th goal that Shakhtar have conceded in Europe under Mircea Lucescu.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

WBA Vs Southampton

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:09:00 +0000

W.B.A. has surprised me this season with some gritty performances. They were my picks as relegation candidates at the start of the season, but have prove otherwise with performances to date. The appointment of Steve Clarke certainly played a vital part in producing a solid outfit in W.B.A.this season. They have enjoyed a terrific start and would be favourites to bring home full points against Southampton at the Hawthorns.

With Liverpool, Everton, Reading and QPR, all beaten at the Hawthorns, Manchester City are the only team to record a victory against WBA at (the Hawthorns), leaving W.B.A. in eighth place, though they have to be respected for accumulating 14 points from a possible 27.

On the back of two tightly-contested defeats West Bromwich Albion will be looking to get back to winning ways when they host second-bottom Southampton at the Hawthorns.

The Baggies were unfortunate to succumb to an injury time winner in their 2-1 defeat away to Newcastle last weekend, a result that came a week after Manchester City had scored twice in the final ten minutes to defeat them by the same score.

Both results were a kick in the teeth for new head coach Steve Clarke and his charges, but solace will have been taken from the level of performance in both matches. Apart from the need to work on concentration when defending a lead or point, there are few glaring deficiencies to be righted in this WBA side.

West Brom have the requisite personnel to effectively deploy such tactics, with pace and trickery in wide areas and up front, a solid defence and a central midfield pairing that successfully combines brains and brawn. Long-time regular Youssouf Mulumbu provides the brawn and new signing Claudio Yacob – whose excellent reading of the game has been clear to see during his positive start to life in England – supplies the brains.

Saints’ record of one win, one draw and seven defeats is clear relegation form and has seen questions start to be raised over the future of manager Nigel Adkins. Such talk is premature and very harsh on a man who has secured back-to-back promotions over the last two seasons, but such is the cut-throat nature of the Premier League that it would not be wholly surprising to see him relieved of his duties if results do not quickly improve.

Poor defending has been Southampton’s primary problem since returning to the top flight. They have conceded 26 times in their 9 matches to date, comfortably the worst record of any team in the Premier League. They have scored more goals (14) than 11 other teams in the division, but simply cannot continue to concede an average of nearly three goals per match if they are to have any pretensions of staying up.

The defeat on Sunday to Tottenham Hotspur last week saw Southampton slip to 19th place and are kicking off as the bottom club after QPR avoided defeat yesterday.

Record-Signing Gaston Ramirez has recovered from injury to the relief of Adkins The Uruguayan has been training all week and is likely to start the game. Playmaker, Ramirez, showed flashes of brilliance in the home win against Aston Villa (4-1 FT) and after being sidelined for five weeks, he is one player whom could make the difference for teh Saints

Defensively, there have been debates and discussions amongst the supporters on various acquisitions that have proven not to be wise signing. In the opinions of many, the Saints have “swapped” offensive strength for defensive stability. There is a feeling amongst the club’s supporters that money spent on Ramirez, or the £7 million splashed on Jay Rodriguez, would have been better spent on a central defender..

Betting Picks and Short Preview

WBA are determined to put the past two weeks behind and secure all three points that would bring them back into the top six in the League (EPL) They should be of ability to emerge victorious against a Southampton side whose inept defending has fell short at times.

To-Date - four wins, two draws and three defeats : 10 goals scored and conceding 4[W.B.A.]

PICK - West Bromwich Albion -3/4

TG PICK – Over 2.5

PICK: WBA to Win @1.70 [1] (1 x 2) FT

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

As Roma Vs Palermo

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:13:00 +0000

Our 2 cents worth of comments [Preview]

E-Wallets For Online Gaming Xclusives Tags: Serie A, Roma, Palermo, Comprehensive Analysis, Soccer, Betting Tips, Top Analysis, Sports Bet, Bet, WInning Tips, Italy, Tipster

Roma's Zdenek Zeman, if there were to be one thing which you would want a guarantee on, the answer is goals; Thus you can anticipate the goals to flow today, hosting Palermo at the Stadio Olimpico.

Zeman is not a someone who carries his job by the half; implementing an all-out-attack style which can leave his team vulnerable and at times horribly exposed defensively. Roma have the dubious honour of having scored (+22), and conceding (-19); the highest (goals conceded) compared to any other team in Serie A this season.

Up front, Zeman has the talented and brilliant trio in Erik Lamela, Francesco Totti and Pablo Osvaldo to call upon at all times. These offensive trio who have a total of 14 goals under their belts so far.

Lamela was blasted for his attacking movements and relevance earlier in the campaign, but Lamela have grown to adapt particularly well to Zeman's ways and handling methods/tactics for the team, and raking in a credible five goals in his last four appearances for Roma as well.

Roma's attacking threats, however, have been greatly 'neutralised' due to an inexperienced defensive backline, and have struggled in trying to adapt to the high line and offside trap Zeman strongly emphasizes on in his tactics. The back four conceded three 'weak' goals during their recent defeat to Parma. The Defensive backline's average age is a mere 21.5 and has only made a combined total of just 22 starts for Roma, which is a cause for concern for Zeman.

Palermo have generally been defensively stingy ever since Gian Piero Gasperini took over Giuseppe Sannino. Conceding just six times in seven matches. Though, Palermo's weaknesses were exposed when they drew 2-2 with AC Milan in midweek.

This could be beneficial to Roma if they can work on Palermo's weaknesses at the back. With a three man defensive line, this could bode well for the Romans. Palermo would probably come unstuck against an offensively strong Roma's strikeforce expected to terrorize Palermo's defensive vulnerabilities.

Our Pick: As Roma to clinch. End-To-End Action is expected with goals flowing; An exciting clash in the making further assured by the Head-to-Head records between these two oppositions. To date, An average of 4.10 goals in matches involving them, with seven of the ten ending with four or more goals.

Thank You
Rgds,
SV-Csd-Adm._Andrew & Kazuo

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Moneybookers And Gaming Portals Related

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 04:45:00 +0000

Hi To All,

Firstly, would like to apologize if this post is in the wrong category; Kindly do correct us if it is. Thanks

Am not sure if any mates here have any issues with regards to the the stated (Topic); Nevertheless, if there are any mates who do need/want/others on increasing MB Limits and VIP Status as well as obtaining the security token [Anything related to Moneybookers/Neteller/Others],

Do feel free to Msg us and we would gladly assist within our ability. No promise but we would be more than willing to render any assistance (if any). :)

*Added on would be matters related to the various Online Gaming Portals around - If of ability to, we would gladly assist, so long as it;s within abilities.

E-Wallets For Online Gaming Xclusives Tags: Moneybookers, Skrill, Online Gaming, VIP, Exclusive, Sportsbook, E-Wallets, Free

Thank You
Have a Great Weekend!

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Betting Exchanges Related Affairs

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 04:02:00 +0000

Suggestion In Short Summarization: Use The Parlay Calculator In Betcruise to try out the countless combinations available; Back-Lay, Hedging/Hutching, Diff. Betting Forms, Arbitrage Bet, Sure-Bets And so on...It gets very interesting once you get the hang of it; And further on to trading in gaming sites where you will not have to wait for matches to start for bets, and still being able to utilize your knowledge and analysis / others to win !

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Can Weather Affect?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 01:25:00 +0000

When placing a bet, you may run checks on the usual variables such as a team’s form, head-to-head results and similar (surface matters relating to the game) – though, does all of us pay any attention to the weather? This is often-overlooked, but can be a crucial aspect of sports betting as it can in someway influence the outcome of any sporting event.

Professional sports teams understand the impact of the weather, with most employing meteorologists who have good knowledge of local conditions.

A list below shows how regular conditions can cause adverse effects on the best-laid plans (variety of sporting events)

Weather in Soccer

Perhaps the most frequent of negative conditions in football is bad-weather, as with the ‘skimming’ of ball caused by rain or quicker movement of the ball on pitch, a perfect scenario for teams that likes to pass the ball around.

however, on the downside for certain teams/players, in the event of a heavy downpours/torrential rain, the pitch will become waterlogged slowing down the ball, and seriously disrupting passes on the pitch. This is especially important for lower-league clubs, who does not possess adept ground staff to keep the pitch in tip-top condition.

Therefore it’s vital to check not just whether or not rain will occur, but how much exactly is likely to fall.

The slippery conditions could most probably also have a big impact on betting on total goals – As for Goalkeepers, stinging rain will not just affect grip, but also reduce visibility for long-range and low strikes.

Effects of Weather in Soccer

Soccer is a sport easily affected by rain. Surface will be slower, and likely result in a tighter, tougher contest between the two sides. On the other hand, it could also result in a frustrating and disruptive game due to the problems such a surface would inflict upon.

Wind is a factor that affects the game as well, however, Teams that prefer passing plays will find windy conditions particularly difficult.

Affect of Weather in Tennis

When it comes to tennis, sustained periods of heavy rain result in delays, postponements and interruptions.

These can provide much-needed respite for losing players in the midst a match, or delay a game enough to negatively impact the winner’s recovery time and therefore affect his next match.

At Wimbledon, it can lead to the closure of the roof, which in turn will affect the bounce of the ball and benefit indoor-specialists – such as Roger Federer.

Wind is another contributing factor for tennis conditions – it can greatly shift how the ball moves and tilt the advantage in favour of baseline defenders, instead of those who aim for the lines.

Knowing the weather conditions is a must for the serious bettor, and a reliable forecasting site is a vital tool. While there are numerous free forecasts available on the internet, commercial offerings can offer an even bigger edge for fans of outside sports, such as soccer, football, tennis and baseball.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Sportsbooker-Vision Radar Flex

Hong Kong Carlsberg Cup Live

Flash Picks

CD NacionalGD Estoril Praia

COLOMBIA POSTOBON BEST ODDS (LIVE BETTING MARKETS)

COLOMBIA POSTOBON - Junior Barranquilla Vs Deportivo Pasto Live

SBVision Alliance Brand: Rosario Vs Gimnasia Live And Betting Preview

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE LIVE

Colombia Primera A: Atletico Nacional Medellin Vs Itagui Ditaires Live

Mexico Apertura Final: Club Tijuana Vs Deportivo Toluca

Champions League Betting Trends Trends You Need to Know for Champions League Winner Betting

NEXT ARTICLE SOON >>

014 World Cup Betting Danger in Betting Against the Minnows

World Cup Total Goals Market

World Cup Handicap Market

External Factors Effecting “Minnows”

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

The law of large numbers

The Law of Large Numbers

Poisson Distribution Poisson Distribution for Soccer Betting

Poisson Distribution Betting – Attack Strength vs. Defence Strength

We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack and Defence Strength of both Newcastle and Tottenham for their match on August 18th, 2012.

In this case, that’s 0.960* 0.795 * 1.611 (the average number of home goals scored last season), which equates to Newcastle scoring 1.213 goals.

Poisson Distribution Betting – Predicting Multiple Match Outcomes

Poisson Distribution Betting – The Limits of Poisson Distribution

How Bookies Work? (Explaining How Bookmakers Work with a Coin)

Mexico Apertura

Betting Types Basic Bet Types Explained

Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by Pinnacle Sports; 1×2’s, Handicaps and Totals.

Betting Tipsters How to Pick a Betting Tipster and Avoid the Monkeys?

Some bettors defer the betting selection process and use tipsters. Unfortunately, it’s easy to confuse whether a tipster’s track-record shows a statistically significant predictive ability, or just a good run of luck.

How Do Free Bets Work? Learn How Free Bets Work & Their Drawbacks

How Do Free Bets Work?

Learn How Free Bets Work & Their Drawbacks

Home Advantage in the Betting Point of View. Is it Important?

UFC on FOX: Key Fight Statistics

FC on FOX betting has Ben Henderson as the 1.690* favourite to defend his lightweight title against Nate Diaz 2.310* on December 8th at KeyArena, Washington. To increase your chances of winning on Henderson vs. Diaz betting, read the key fight statistics.

Striking – Punches Versus Kicks

Wrestling – Henderson Should Dominate

DIRECT EXAMPLE - ARB. BET/SUREBET

DIRECT EXAMPLE - ARB. BET/SUREBET

WBA Vs Southampton

As Roma Vs Palermo

Moneybookers And Gaming Portals Related

Betting Exchanges Related Affairs

Can Weather Affect?

Effects of Weather in Soccer

Affect of Weather in Tennis

CD Nacional
GD Estoril Praia

**In this case, that’s 0.960* 0.795 * 1.611 (the average number of home goals scored last season), which equates to Newcastle scoring 1.213 goals.**

FC on FOX betting has Ben Henderson as the 1.690* favourite to defend his lightweight title against Nate Diaz 2.310* on December 8^th at KeyArena, Washington. To increase your chances of winning on Henderson vs. Diaz betting, read the key fight statistics.