Sportsman Blogger

Is Miami's 19-Point Win Versus San Antonio Historically Significant?

2013-06-10T20:48:00.001-07:00

Miami's 19-point victory on Sunday was the largest margin of victory in a Finals series in the past three seasons. Somehow, the series seemed to have tilted way in favor of the Heat in a little more than a quarter's worth of playing time. The blowout victory was a revelation for the Heat, who made the necessary adjustments in the second half to take a commanding lead on the way to winning Game 2. With the series tied at 1-1, Game 3 has historically been the pivotal game on which a Finals series hinges.

Can margin of victory predict the Finals winner?

As CBS sports columnist Gregg Doyel wrote, "Since the NBA Finals went to the 2-3-2 format in 1985, the series has been tied 12 times entering Game 3. In those 12 series, the Game 3 winner has gone on to be the champion 11 times." That's a stat worth paying attention to, or maybe it's a stat just stating the obvious; that championships are not necessarily caused by winning Game 3 itself, but rather in the probability that the better team will win more games. Game 3, all things being equal, has a greater chance of being won by the better team, and therefore, why the champion wins Game 3 more often than the loser.

So how about turning our attention to margin of victory? Does the margin of victory in a single NBA Finals game provide a clue into who will win the championship?

The thinking is that the better team will have a more dominant performance that manifests itself in larger margins of victory. After all, it's rare that an eventual champion would lose in a blowout if they indeed are the better team. Great teams humble lesser teams, and lesser teams rarely have the firepower to beat great teams by more than what great teams can beat them by over the course of a seven-game series.

Looking at margin of victory data going back to the 1990 NBA Finals -- a span of 23 Finals -- the team with the largest margin of victory in a single game would eventually claim the championship 19 times.

In addition, only three champions since 1990 have lost a Finals game by more than 13 points; the 1996 Chicago Bulls (21), 2000 Los Angeles Lakers (33), and 2005 San Antonio Spurs (33). The team that lost by 13? That would be the 2006 Miami Heat who lost to the Dallas Mavericks. It should be noted that the 1996 Bulls lost Game 4 by 21 after building a 3-0 series lead against the Seattle Supersonics, and the 2000 Lakers lost Game 5 by 33 after opening up a 3-1 series lead against the Indiana Pacers. The 2005 Spurs lost Game 4 by 33 to the Detroit Pistons to make it a 2-2 series.

From the data, we can infer that if this year's version of the Spurs win the series, they will become only the fourth team since 1990 to win the championship after losing a Finals game by more than 13 points. If the Spurs do not beat the Heat in a game by 20 or more points, they will become just the 5th team in the past 24 Finals to win the championship without having the largest margin of victory in a single game.

The data seems to suggest that better teams more often than not display the most dominant single-game performances in a series. Miami has staked a claim for most dominant performance in this series, but of course, the series is still in its infancy as the Spurs and Heat play the next three games in San Antonio.

10 Most Hated College Teams

2013-02-20T19:13:00.001-08:00

So Uncoached.com released a list of the 10 most hated teams in sports. The list included three college teams; Ohio State football, Duke men's basketball, and Notre Dame football. It got me thinking about the college programs that people around the country really, really dislike and I ranked them. In addition to the three mentioned above, I added seven more.

10) UConn women's basketball: The only women's team on this list!!! Nobody likes a team that has dominated for so long. 90 wins in a row? 90 FRIGGIN' wins in a row!!! Amazing, yes. But it just made you feel good to see them lose and cry, and pout, and be like 'We're UConn, what is this feeling of losing?' And you know, there's just something about Geno Auriemma that rubs people the wrong way. I loved it when Pat Summit was winning titles, but Auriemma? The guy looks angry when his team wins by 30.

Lane Kiffin. My blood boils.

9) Boise State football: I know there are many people who are fans of this perennial BCS crasher. But how many other people out there cry foul? Here's to all the people who ask "How would they do in a power conference? How many games would they lose in the SEC?" To each his own, but Boise State really started the conversation for the importance of strength of schedule in determining the top 2 teams in the BCS national championship game. For the record, I'm a fan of the Broncos.

8) Southern Cal football: Two words: Lane Kiffin. Every time they lost last year just felt so good, didn't it?

7) Miami, Fla., football: The hatred thrown at the program stems from its renegade days in the 1980's. Some people suggest the program is still living in the past, but if that's the case, then so are all the haters who can't get enough of calling Miami "Thug U." So many people were calling for the Death Penalty liberally following the Shapiro scandal. The sanctions await.

6) Kentucky men's basketball: John Calipari is the nation's best recruiter, but he hasn't won over many fans with his crop of one-and-done freshman sensations. His reliance on young talent paid off spectacularly with last year's national title, but some basketball purists can't stand the idea of "renting" players for one year, unless of course it's your team cutting down the nets at the end of the year.

5) Tennessee football: You fire Phil Fulmer who was good at the beginning and bad at the end, kind of like an all-you-can-eat buffet. You gave Lane Kiffin a shot. Then he leaves you, your fans go all apocalyptic, but it's OK because you hired Derek Dooley. Plus, you gave Lane Kiffin a shot.

Lord Voldemort, er, Saban

4) Alabama football: Roll Tide! Alabama was a broken program just six years ago. Enter Lord Saban and college football's craziest, most rabid fans have reason to get all smug again. They also claim a crazy amount of national titles, some of which are totally unjustified, most of which, begrudgingly, are completely legitimate.

3) Notre Dame football: All the history, nostalgia, and legacy from the Four Horsemen to Lou Holtz. No program has more lore than the Fighting Irish, and it's a bit annoying. Sure it's a historic program, but it's no different now than any other major college football program. Plus, there's the resentment of having their own contract with NBC and holding out of a conference. I predict the ACC is in your near future Notre Dame.

2) Ohio State football: Only 15 years ago Ohio State was a respectable program cheered on by many people outside the state of Michigan. Then came Jim Tressel, who made the program a Big 10 powerhouse, but it came with his horrible sweater vest. Deep down you just knew Tressel was somehow...off. Then came the embarrassing losses to two SEC teams in BCS title games. The Suckeyes, I mean, Buckeyes have yet to live those losses down.

Cameron Indoor, home of the Dukies

1) Duke men's basketball: Blue bloods. Players on Duke teams have been called sell-outs, but all they do is keep winning ACC titles on a regular basis and reach Final Fours for Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski. After Duke won the 2010 championship people were literally outraged that they had beaten Butler. You ever seen an indignant Digger Phelps? I have. Their fans do tend to get annoying, but it's the only arena in all of sports where I catch myself paying more attention to the crowd than to the game. Is that a bad thing or a good thing?

Lance Armstrong from a Christian Perspective

2013-01-18T13:14:00.001-08:00

In my young boys' mind I grew up thinking good athletes were successful because they were naturally good, flawless people. In turn, I thought less of players who rarely came off the bench because if they were inferior athletes, they must have been inferior people -- with less of a desire to work hard or the willingness to make the necessary sacrifices to be successful. It's why in my youth I took it so hard when I didn't achieve athletically the way I aspired to. As I grew older that kind of thinking evaporated, but the very essence of the idea that moral people accomplish great things has always remained in my romanticized view of sports.

So when Lance Armstrong's interview finally aired and I was able to digest the meaning of yet another sports hero brought down by scandal, my reaction went from one of sadness and disappointment, to one of hope and joy.

I'm not used to writing about sports from a Christian perspective, but I couldn't help but think of the many ways that Armstrong's story parallels so many of the characters in the Bible who distance themselves from God.

Lance Armstrong made history on his own. But at what price?

By his own account, Armstrong did things his way. His use of performance-enhancing drugs led him to seven consecutive Tour de France titles, a fortune, worldwide celebrity, and becoming an icon as a survivor and philanthropist in the fight against cancer. He became what so many of us can only dream of, and then some. Armstrong did pretty well on his own. He elicited pride from cancer survivors, Americans, war veterans, and sports fans spanning the globe. But his empire was built on the idea of himself. As he would say in the interview with Oprah, "I was used to controlling everything in my life. I controlled every outcome in my life."

Therein lies Armstrong's mistake -- we are not in control of our lives. God is in control, and when we do not acknowledge the presence of God in our life, the fall is devastating and damning.

In his interview Armstrong revealed that he was "deeply flawed," a "bully," and described himself as full of "arrogance." None of this is surprising, in fact, as we sit in front of our computers and televisions and admonish a human who is by nature flawed and sinful, can't we look at ourselves and say the same thing?

For me to turn Armstrong into a pariah so that I can categorize him in my mind as another wrongdoer in a world that is full of wrongdoing, would simply turn me into an even bigger hypocrite than I already am. Who am I to judge this man for all his shortcomings, when I am just as guilty of being a flawed creature who strays from God's word on a daily basis?

I hope Armstrong makes amends with those he has hurt. With an open heart, that he make amends and recognize that not only has he been a flawed person, but that he will forever be flawed, and the only way for any kind of change is to begin a conversation with God. As much as he thought he was in control, Armstrong never was and never will be. The events leading up to his admission of PED use and last night's interview is a testament to his lack of control.

I would also pray that our society be quick to forgive, and that as much as we are guilty of building up our celebrities, that we disassociate ourselves from idol worship. Placing our beliefs and hopes in fellow humans only leads to disillusionment, lies, and a void where God should have been all along.

When I read Psalm 4:1-4 I can only think of how Armstrong for so long lied to everyone, and how the people he has affected are now quick to condemn and slow to forgive. Yet, within the same passage is a hope of redemption for Armstrong -- in prayer.

"Answer me when I call, O God who declares me innocent. Take away my distress. Have mercy on me and hear my prayer.

How long will you people ruin my reputation? How long will you make these groundless accusations? How long will you pursue lies?

You can be sure of this: The Lord has set apart the godly for himself. The Lord will answer when I call him.

Don't sin by letting anger gain control over you. Think about it overnight and remain silent."

The Joys of Sport

2012-08-23T19:01:00.001-07:00

I was recently on vacation in Miami when I stopped by a friend's house who was having a going away party for his brother. My friend is a big sports fan so I was expecting there to be some competition when he told me they were going to be playing pool volleyball and basketball. I told him I'd drop in, and as the day passed by and my wife and I spent the day together, we saw that dark clouds were forming and we could see lightning and hear thunder. I wondered if the barbecue had moved indoors.

Michael Phelps is the greatest athlete I've ever seen. That's all.

In my mind I figured the going away party had been dampened by the weather, and by the time we got to my friend's house, it was pouring rain. We went to his backyard, and to my surprise there was a raucous 4 on 4 pool volleyball game going on. My friend was in the pool, and so were a number of his friends whose faces I recognized from many years before.

In the middle of a thunderstorm, these guys were out there laughing and screaming and playing. It was one of the most joyous sporting events I had ever attended.

Sometimes I feel like the sports I fell in love with as a kid is just an illusion. In fact, it's more than a feeling, I know it's an illusion. I know that as much as sports have shaped my life, that the mainstream sports that I consume on a day-to-day basis are a ruined version of the innocent vision I once had. That's just part of growing up. I still appreciate amazing athletic performances -- those that come under pressure, those that only a select few in the world can perform, and some that are just outright inspiring.

But I find myself guilty of paying too much attention to sports teams and athletes. These same athletes will say that sports is just a "business." And it's true, but alas, sports are so wonderfully disguised. I certainly am not as moved or inspired by the CFO or CEO of Apple, as I am by watching LeBron James win his first title, or watching an athlete like Michael Phelps not just transcending his sport, but leaving us wondering about the possibilities for all athletes everywhere in every sport.

So much of what I love about sports now goes along with false role models, sex, drugs, egos, and greed; just to name a few things. I know this because I see it and because I've been in the business. I still love watching sports, but I'm moving to a point where I can truly see them for what they are, and not what I hope them to be.

Still, I'm not so cynical to not appreciate the joy I saw when a bunch of guys who had done some growing up were playing pool volleyball in the middle of a rainstorm and nothing seemed more important -- or fun.

Penn State Has Been Hit by the NCAA Atomic Bomb

2012-07-23T08:57:00.000-07:00

There used to be statues dedicated to Joe Paterno.

About three years ago I was having dinner in New Orleans with a group of sports administrators who were in town for a volunteer trip. One of them was a retired athletic director for academic advising at Penn State. She asked me, "Do you know what they call Penn State?" I had an idea where she was headed but I replied, "I'm not sure, what?" She said, "They call it Happy Valley. Do you know why?" I said, "No, why?" She said, "The name says it all. It truly is a very happy place." She went on to talk about the university and how wonderful people were there. She talked about how Penn State was one of the first schools to have a Life Skills department for its student-athletes. She even gushed about the football team winning the 1986 national title against Miami. The conversation was a pleasant one, but it left me feeling uneasy. I mean certainly, not everything in Happy Valley could truly be happy, right? Last November we found out that it wasn't, and today we found out that Penn State football as we know it is forever altered.
The sanctions destroyed Penn State's legacy and its future. Penn State football will be irrelevant for what may be up to a decade, if not longer. Joe Paterno is no longer the winningest coach in Division I-A / FBS history. The 60 million dollars that will go to external funds for victims of sexual abuse, which is a great sanction that benefits the victims of this tragedy, will not only take away from the football program, but also from all the other sports programs that football helps fund. The reduction of scholarships means that fewer young adults will have the opportunity to attend college and represent Penn State.
In many ways this was worse than the death penalty, because Penn State football will continue to exist as a shadow of its former self, and we will all be spectators to its fall from grace. We will all see the Michigans and Ohio States of the world demolish Penn State and we won't be left wondering if it was because of poor recruiting or coaching, we'll all know it was because of a child molester who lurked in the shadows of Beaver Stadium. Penn State's humiliation will be a years-long public spectacle.
I hope these sanctions serve as a warning to other schools that football cannot take precedence over an institution's academic purpose. That these sanctions will provide some kind of relief for the victims of Jerry Sandusky, and that administrators will think twice about covering up any crime, especially those as heinous as Sandusky's.
Yet I cannot help but look at the NCAA people as a bunch of hypocrites. It relied solely on the Freeh Report to dole out its sanctions, without conducting any kind of real investigation on its own. The organization harps on the importance of keeping football from becoming an institution's priority, yet year-after-year the NCAA stands to gain billions of dollars from multi-year football contracts leveraged by programs like Penn State. It also continues to punish innocent student-athletes that had nothing to do with crimes committed by men of higher authority who failed them. The NCAA is losing sight of itself. The money in college sports has become too great for the NCAA to keep pretending that there isn't an incentive for programs to cheat and sink to the lowest depths of humanity. The sad truth is that ethics, morality, and virtues don't stand a chance when there is money to be made. Penn State deserved a stiff punishment, but the NCAA needs to take a look at itself and wonder if it has become that monster it aims to punish.
I'm sure that there are people in Penn State who are hurting at their core. Like the athletic director told me a few years ago, Penn State was a happy place for a lot of great people, but now comes the self-reflection and finding out truly, what makes a place "happy?"

Joe Paterno is not Jerry Sandusky

2012-07-13T09:38:00.001-07:00

Let me be clear here. Joe Paterno was disastrously wrong for his lack of action in dealing with Jerry Sandusky. It's funny to hear all these talking heads who make a living out of talking about sports all day, suddenly make grandiose statements about really serious matters to the extent that Paterno is as "morally culpable" as Sandusky. On one hand, Sandusky has been found guilty of sexually abusing multiple young boys through such actions as physical touching, oral sex, and anal sex. Joe Paterno did none of that, in fact, he seemed to do very little of anything. But there's a big divide between Paterno and Sandusky.

Paterno isn't around to answer the hard questions.

If Paterno was the kind of man I think he was, I don't think he would do nothing if he had been sat down and told by someone, "Look Joe, Sandusky is raping kids in our locker room, in our showers. He's using our university as his personal stomping ground to molest young boys. We've seen it, we've heard it from other people. He's using his non-profit to groom his next victims. There are kids right this second in danger of being molested by Sandusky. I think this has been going on longer than anyone can even imagine." I could be wrong, but I'd like to think that if the message had been that clear to him, that he'd see the whole thing through.
Even after the Freeh Report came out yesterday, I'm still as unclear about a lot of things as I was at the beginning, and I can't be the only person. There are a lot of questions in that report that have been left unanswered.
For one, Mike McQueary, then a Penn State graduate assistant, was not interviewed in the Freeh Report despite making repeated offers to be interviewed by investigators. This is huge because it is McQueary who first reported to Paterno that he had seen Sandusky molest a boy in the showers. What exactly, and in what terms, did McQueary tell Paterno? Then, from Paterno's discussion with McQueary, what did he tell AD Tim Curley and VP Gary Schultz? Let's stop here. This is the point in which Paterno should have been screaming like a banshee to get Sandusky investigated and prohibited from ever setting foot on the Penn State campus.
Instead, he went up to his "superiors," and let them handle it. In that instance, Paterno was no longer an effective leader. Sure, he could probably still run a football program, but he couldn't properly respond to a situation outside of his narrow scope. It should come as no wonder, but the man was nearly 75 years old at that point. Paterno should have been laying on a beach somewhere in Florida, or playing bingo, or tending to a garden, but not coaching college football.
The most damning piece of evidence is in an e-mail exchange between Schultz and Curley in which Curley says he had spoken to Paterno, and decided against going to the authorities for what McQueary had reported. What was that conversation, and what did Paterno say? Again, the Freeh Report does not make that clear and falls short in answering key questions. It leaves us assuming about many things.
What happened here? I may very well be an idiot, I may very well be a complete and utter fool, but you mean to tell me that four highly educated men all knew that Sandusky had been having sex with a 10-year-old boy in the same locker room where Penn State football players prepare to give their blood, sweat, and tears for their university and they decided to do nothing? It just doesn't make sense.
Listen, if you've read this entire thing it's my hope that you don't think I'm defending these guys. That's not the case, they turned a blind eye to a really horrible situation. My point is, did they know exactly what they were turning a blind eye to? Something happened here, something very tangible happened that resulted in the failure to report Sandusky, and the Freeh Report didn't find those answers. If everyone knew exactly what was happening, then I can't think of anything we can hold as sacred anymore. It just doesn't make sense.

Days Off to the National Title Game

2012-07-12T21:29:00.000-07:00

50 off-days until the big stage is a bit much. i.e. 41-14

Building off of my previous post, I looked at the "true" national title games since 1980 to see what impact the number of days off had on the title game participants. What I mean by "true" is the one bowl game that would determine the national title winner, essentially a #1 vs. #2 matchup.

There were instances when if one team lost in a bowl game, then another team had the opportunity to win the title as in 1997 when Nebraska went undefeated and won the national title, and when Penn State also went undefeated but finished 2nd in both polls. Unfortunately, Penn State and Nebraska did not face each other in a "true" title game.

There are also instances as in 1983 when 5th ranked Miami defeated #1 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl and won the national title because of losses suffered by the teams ranked above them. Though the winner of the 1983 matchup resulted in the national title winner, it was not a "true" title game because outcomes outside of the game factored into the national title.

Here's what I found:

1983 Sugar Bowl - Penn State (36 days off) vs. Georgia (35 days off)

1987 Fiesta Bowl - Penn State (41 days off) vs. Miami (36 days off)

1988 Orange Bowl - Oklahoma (41 days off) vs. Miami (26 days off)

1993 Sugar Bowl - Miami (34 days off) vs. Alabama (26 days off)

1994 Orange Bowl - Nebraska (36 days off) vs. Florida State (35 days off)

1995 Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska (39 days off) vs. Florida (30 days off)

The research was disappointing because dating back to 1980 from the first BCS game in 1998, there were only six instances in which the numbers 1 and 2 teams met for the national title. The data showed that in the six instances when #1 went up against #2, there was an even split between teams with more or less off-days. I would consider the 1983 Sugar Bowl insignificant in that Penn State had just one more day off than Georgia, but I must stick to my requirements.
However, to add on to a previous stat, since 1980 when teams have a difference of seven or more off-days in "true" national title games, the team with fewer days off has an 8-3 record. The sample size is too small for us to consider this significant, but perhaps there is something to having too many off days.
Going back to my first post regarding Ohio State, I still believe Florida was the superior team (I think that was clear considering the outcome). However, the 50 off-days that the Buckeyes had were the most of any team competing in the national title game in the last 31 years, at least. And when we consider our previous stat, it could be that they started the game at a disadvantage. I have to admit while I believe Florida was without a doubt the better team, I don't think Florida was 41-14 better, know what I mean?
I believe that the advent of conference title games for the Big 10 and the Pac 12 will make their elite teams better prepared for bowl games with national title implications.

Days Off Before the BCS National Championship Game

2012-07-11T18:47:00.002-07:00

The BCS Trophy

I'm going to come clean. I am a Florida Gators fan. It's where I went to school and where I did a lot of growing up. This blog isn't about that, but I wanted to let everyone know where I'm coming from. I was in my car the other day when out of nowhere I remembered how people said that the reason Ohio St. lost to Florida in the 2007 BCS title game was because of how many days off the Buckeyes had between their last game and the title game. I have a different hypothesis: the Gators were better.
But the argument some still make to this day sparked some curiosity in me. Does the length of time between a team's last game and the national title game have an impact on that team's performance? Since we are in the BCS era, I looked at BCS national title games in addition to bowl games that figured in split national titles. The numbers are interesting. Of the nine bowl games with national title implications where the teams had different days off between games, six of them were won by teams with fewer days off.
Of the three teams that had more days off and won, the only team that had a difference greater than eight games was.....Ohio State, which had 16 more off-days than Miami leading up to the 2003 title game. For the 2007 title game, Ohio State had 14 more off days than Florida. As evidenced, it seems as if teams that have many more off days tend to not do as well as teams that have played more recently. The data is very limited, however, as it only looks at nine games. I will expand the research in the days to come.
HOWEVER, when it comes to Ohio State, how can you argue one way for one game, but be unable to explain how they beat a potentially all-time great team in Miami in 2003 with many more days off? I'll say this much in Ohio State's defense, the 50 days off is the most - by five days - of any team to compete in the title game, and they did it twice. The average winning team had 35 days off between games, which seems to be about the optimal amount of time between games.
Here's an interesting stat from the research: When teams have a difference of seven or more off-days, the team with fewer days off has a 6-2 record. I will look at other games to increase sample size.

**Teams in bold are the winning teams when there was a difference in off-days
1999 BCS Title Game - Florida State (44 days off) vs. Tennessee (28 days off)
2000 BCS Title Game - Florida State (44 days off) vs. Virginia Tech (38 days off)
2001 BCS Title Game - Florida State (45 days off) vs. Oklahoma (31 days off)
2002 BCS Title Game - Nebraska (41 days off) vs. Miami (32 days off)
2003 BCS Title Game - Ohio State (42 days off) vs. Miami (26 days off)
2004 BCS Title Game - LSU (28 days off) vs. Oklahoma (28 days off)
2004 Rose Bowl - Michigan (40 days off) vs. USC (25 days off)
2005 BCS Title Game - USC (30 days off) vs. Oklahoma (30 days off)
2006 BCS Title Game - Texas (31 days off) vs. USC (31 days off)
2007 BCS Title Game - Ohio State (50 days off) vs. Florida (36 days off)
2008 BCS Title Game - Ohio State (50 days off) vs. LSU (36 days off)
2009 BCS Title Game - Florida (32 days off) vs. Oklahoma (32 days off)
2010 BCS Title Game - Alabama (32 days off) vs. Texas (32 days off)
2011 BCS Title Game - Auburn (36 days off) vs. Oregon (36 days off)
2012 BCS Title Game - Alabama (44 days off) vs. LSU (36 days off)

Dwight Howard is Breaking Orlando's Heart

2012-07-04T22:15:00.000-07:00

I very briefly met Dwight Howard at an Orlando Magic charity golf tournament I was volunteering at when I was in graduate school. I was at hole 8, and my job was to greet the golfers and to answer any questions they may have had about the course. I met many different people and saw a few basketball players that day, but I cannot forget the sight of Dwight Howard. I've met many tall people before, but the sight of Howard was something that I had never seen since or before in person. The dude was huge. He was as tall as anyone I'd ever seen but built like a body builder.

Just recently, I saw New York Knicks center Tyson Chandler at a Whole Foods in New York and he was a sight to behold, but he was nothing compared to Howard.

This guy can fly.

I'll always remember Howard because he was one of the few people that day who actually took the time to acknowledge my presence by saying a friendly "what's up, man" and waving to me. That went a long way in forming my opinion of him. Since that day I became a fan of his the way we become fans of people we think are decent human beings.

My first job out of graduate school was with the New Orleans Hornets as a salesperson. I was fortunate enough to get tickets for the NBA's 2008 All-Star Game and festivities, and was at New Orleans Arena when Howard put on his Superman cape and electrified the building with his super dunk (it was more like a nasty throw down). I cheered for him and the Magic during the 2009 Finals, when Howard broke out as a legitimate superstar. Like I said, I'm a fan.

But things change, and people also change. All you ever saw in the media was how lovable and friendly Howard seemed to be. I coupled my one encounter with him and what the media showed and I bought into the persona of Howard being quite possibly the coolest basketball player on the planet.

A year later, and Howard's reputation has taken a beating. The latest news is that he's demanding a trade to the Brooklyn Nets after he had committed to staying with the Orlando Magic only a few months ago (by the way, New York sports talk is going banana-crazy over the prospect of Howard in Brooklyn). He's been blamed for firing a respected head coach, the resignation of the team's President, and the firing of the team's general manager and six members of the team's scouting department.

It's like he's left a trail of burning, charred debris in Orlando and he's running for the exits. He's made mistakes, but I'm still a Howard fan because I think he's a good person. I hope that as his fame has grown that he hasn't lost his moral compass. I can understand Howard's frustration with the Magic organization. The talent that has been around him will never be enough to compete with Miami, Boston, or a healthy Chicago.

I could go on and on about what I think he should do, or what I hope ends up happening. But I think Howard is going to force his way out of Orlando, and the city will have its heart broken once again. I can only think about how many titles Orlando would have if Shaquille O'Neal had never left, or what kind of impact Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill would have had if Hill had managed to stay healthy. Shaq left Orlando in 1996 when he bolted for Los Angeles. Howard came along eight years later to try and erase the haunting memory of losing Shaq. Now it seems that rather than helping to heal some old wounds, Howard is going to open new ones.

The city built a beautiful new arena, with Howard intended to be its crowned jewel. But again, another transcendent talent wants to pack his bags and leave that small market for the glitz of a metropolis. This is sports now at the beginning of the 21st century -- money and fame meant to create a loyalty it could never buy. The result of which is a bitter backlash of unmet expectations from everyone involved that can only be derived from the promises of wealth and fame. Howard was never immune from it all, but we wanted him to be. I'm going to keep cheering for Dwight, cheer for him to come as close as he can to that night in New Orleans when he was Superman.

Coaches on the Hot Seat Using Win Gain Differential

2011-08-27T20:10:00.000-07:00

Earlier this summer I introduced a stat called the win gain. Essentially, it takes a look at a coach's first four years as well as the last year of his predecessor. For instance, in order to calculate Urban Meyer's win gain at Florida, we would take the Gators' record in Ron Zook's last season, and then we would look at the total wins in each of Meyer's first four seasons. Zook's final season yielded a 7-6 season, after which Meyer was able to reel off 9-3, 13-1, 9-4, and 13-1 seasons in his first four years. After four seasons, Meyer had a positive win gain of 6 - a very good number.

The hottest seat in America belongs to WSU's Paul Wulff.

In a previous post, I established that a positive win gain of any sort almost automatically insured a coach would keep their job for at least another season. A neutral win gain and coaches were still likely to keep their jobs, and a negative win gain after four years meant that a coach was likely to lose their job.

Which coaches entering their fourth year in a BCS conference are on the hot seat, and what records must they reach in order to keep their jobs? First, let's take a look at the guys that appear to be safe. Including Hawaii, which made a BCS Bowl appearance in the 2008 Sugar Bowl, there are 11 coaches entering their fourth seasons among BCS teams. The coaches that are safe are Bobby Petrino, Houston Nutt, Bo Pelini, Mike Sherman, Art Briles, and David Cutcliffe. What would it take for any of these coaches to be fired? Let's take a look.

Bobby Petrino is coming off a 10-win season and Sugar Bowl appearance and has a positive win gain of 2. A seven-win season could have some Razorback fans angry given their high expectations and could be enough to force Petrino out of town. Petrino has Arkansas on the upswing and many would not be shocked if they are in the hunt for the SEC West title late in the season.

Houston Nutt is coming off a disastrous 4-8 season, but his first two seasons at Mississippi included two 9-4 campaigns. If Nutt can only muster a three-win season, he may be packing his bags out of Mississippi. However, his team is expected to improve upon last year's miserable record.

Bo Pelini has gone 9-4, 10-4, and 10-4 in his first three seasons. He has a positive win gain of five, so it would take about a five-win season to get him out of town. Not gonna happen.

Mike Sherman is coming off a successful 9-4 season and Texas A&M is considered by many a dark horse candidate to win the Big 12, and even make a run at the national title. Sherman has a positive win gain of 2, so barring a season where he only wins six games, he should be safe.

Art Briles has brought optimism to the Baylor program by recruiting blue-chip players like quarterback Robert Griffin. After posting consecutive 4-8 seasons in his first two years, Briles finally broke out with a 7-6 campaign in 2010. This year, his Baylor squad is expected to be a middle-of-the pack team capable of competing with almost everyone on its schedule. Unless Baylor reverts to another four-win season, Briles should come back to the lead an emerging Baylor program.

David Cutcliffe inherited a one-win program at Duke and has since gone 4-8, 5-7, and 3-9. He has a positive win gain of 2, so unless he posts a one-win season, which he won't, he'll be safe to coach at Duke for another season and hopefully take the perennially lowly Duke football team to a bowl game.

We now come to the five coaches that are on the hot seat heading into their fourth season. You might be surprised to see the first coach on this list.

Paul Johnson brought the option attack from Navy to Georgia Tech and was widely successful in his first season, capturing coach of the year honors for the Yellow Jackets. In his second season, his team won the ACC Championship. Then came the third season and an ugly 6-7 campaign. After three seasons, Johnson has a negative win gain of -1. It is very likely that another six-win campaign at Georgia Tech, along with recent NCAA sanctions, would be enough for Johnson's exit. Johnson needs at least a seven-win season to make an argument for keeping his job.

Dabo Swinney is actually only entering his third full season as head coach, after taking over Tommy Bowden midseason in 2008 and going 4-3 the rest of the way. In his second season, he led the Tigers to the ACC Championship game where Clemson lost to Georgia Tech. But last season the Tigers reverted to 6-7, despite a very talented roster. There's a lot of pressure this season for Swinney to make Clemson competitive again, and he needs an eight-win season to keep his job.

Greg McMackin is coming off a 10-win season at Hawaii, so he should be a lock to keep his job after his fourth season, right? Wrong. His first two seasons, McMackin went 7-7 and 6-7, before his 10-game breakthrough. McMackin needs to show that a 10-win season was no fluke and also at least another seven-win season to keep his job.

Rick Neuheisel has gone 4-8, 7-6, and 4-8 at UCLA and was expected to compete with neighboring Southern Cal. Ouch, that hasn't even come close to happening. He needs to win at least seven games -- prior to a bowl game -- to have a good shot at keeping his job.

Paul Wulff has gone 2-11, 1-11, and 2-10 in three seasons at Washington St. I don't see any silver lining here, but if he can somehow win at least six games to make a case for keeping his job. It will take a seven-win season to absolutely keep his job. But even that might be asking for too much.

Among coaches entering their fifth season, Nick Saban, Mark Dantonio, and Tom O'Brien are safe. But Dennis Erickson at Arizona St. needs at least eight wins -- prior to a bowl game -- given ASU's high expectations this season and the fact that the Erickson era has been a major disappointment following a 10-win inaugural season.

Will Miami Scandal Signal the End of ACC Football?

2011-08-24T18:37:00.000-07:00

Was this guy's stolen money worth it Miami?

Ever since I heard about the Miami allegations, I've been in a daze. The worst part will be the wait to find out what happens. It's been more than a year since the allegations at North Carolina, and they still don't know what kind of sanctions they're going to face, but they suspended a ton of players, Butch Davis was fired, and their athletic director is going to step down. In other words, a lot of bad stuff has happened at UNC, and this Miami scandal is much bigger than North Carolina's. The Shapiro story doesn't so much show a renegade program, but a program that purposely looked the other way, and that's bad enough. One of my friends thinks Miami is going to get off easier than Southern Cal, but I think he's in denial. The process needs to be played out, but I'll come out and say I believe about 80 percent of what Shapiro is saying, and even if only a quarter of what he said is true, it's still the worst story about a program in more than 15 years (Alabama).

What I think will happen: 2 year bowl ban, about 35 scholarships reduced over a 3-year period, and a ban from TV for one year. I hope it's not that bad, but a part of me thinks the sanctions could be much worse. If I were working at Miami, I'd suggest voluntarily giving up going to a bowl game this year so that future football players aren't penalized. The biggest tragedy of all? Just as Shapiro was out of the picture, and the Hurricanes landed a great coach in Al Golden, and a lot of optimism was building around the program, none of it will matter. I think Golden sticks around for one season, proves his worth this season, and then leaves for Penn St. when Joe Paterno retires after this season. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but if I am, it's a result of the hangover I'm still feeling from reading the Yahoo! story. It's enough to make any college football fan sick to their stomach, and I'm not naive enough to think things like this aren't happening all over the country. Let me put it this way, does your school have millionaire alumni with outsized egos with a large interest in athletics? Yes, it does. You should be worried too.

Now to the question I asked at the beginning. Will this Miami scandal signal the end of ACC football? I watched the 30 for 30 documentary on Southern Methodist and everyone mentioned how the SMU scandal had the effect of destroying the Southwest Conference. If Miami is penalized the way I think it's going to be, and North Carolina also gets hit hard, then we're talking about a conference with some severe limitations. Throw in the fact that Florida St. and Virginia Tech have been mentioned as possible candidates to join the SEC, and the ACC looks like a radically different conference.

There has been speculation about the six current BCS conferences combining into four super conferences, with the Big East and Big XII being dismantled. But the Miami situation puts the ACC in a very fragile situation. It could be that the Big XII, with Oklahoma, Texas, up-and-comers Oklahoma St., and middle-tier Missouri and Texas Tech survives to expand to 16 teams, and the ACC and Big East are forced to join one of the four remaining conferences. Imagine if Florida St. joins the SEC, the banner program for the ACC would be Virginia Tech, and then who? A rebuilding Miami would be years away from being competitive again, so the second banner team would be Georgia Tech? Maryland? Boston College? And who would they pick up? USF? Pittsburgh? Syracuse? In other words, the ACC would be in the same category as the Big East, by far the two weakest conferences of the six BCS conferences.

The repercussions for Miami will last a long time. I think it's going to be a much harsher repeat of the mid-90's when the NCAA imposed a one-year bowl ban and a reduction of 24 scholarships over two years. Who's to blame? First and foremost, the Miami administration for chasing money and enabling a booster like Nevin Shapiro, then Shapiro for just coming into the consciousness of Miami athletics, and then all the players who knowingly broke the rules and disregarded Randy Shannon's warnings to stay away from Shapiro. The NCAA is going to put the "U" in for extended nap time, let's just see where the dominoes fall for the rest of the teams affected by Miami's inability to monitor itself.

AP Preseason vs. Final Polls

2011-08-11T08:25:00.000-07:00

When it comes to picking a champion prior to a season beginning, it makes sense to stick with the prohibitive favorite. But if one is trying to pick a national champion, the AP Poll can lend a good framework with some exceptions. Take a look at the preseason Top 10 poll from the 2010 season. There were two teams, Florida and Texas, that started the season ranked in the Top 5 but that did not even finish in the Top 25. Texas finished with a 5-7 record. Nebraska, Virginia Tech, and Iowa finished outside of the Top 10, with Virginia Tech finishing 16th, Nebraska 20th, and Iowa outside of the rankings. So which teams managed to finish in the Top 10 that started in the AP Top 10? Alabama (1st to 10th), Ohio State (2nd to 5th), Boise State (3rd to 9th), TCU (6th to 2nd), and Oklahoma (7th to 6th). Two of the teams that started the season in the Top 10 finished the season in the Top 5.

AP 2010 Preseason Top 10 Poll

1	Alabama (54)	0-0	1491
2	Ohio State (3)	0-0	1400
3	Boise State (1)	0-0	1336
4	Florida	0-0	1237
5	Texas (1)	0-0	1223
6	TCU	0-0	1160
7	Oklahoma (1)	0-0	1104
8	Nebraska	0-0	1033
9	Iowa	0-0	1007
10	Virginia Tech	0-0	973

AP 2010 Final Top 10 Poll

1	Auburn (56)	14-0	1472
2	TCU (3)	13-0	1392
3	Oregon	12-1	1379
4	Stanford	12-1	1300
5	Ohio State	12-1	1220
6	Oklahoma	12-2	1108
7	Wisconsin	11-2	1055
8	LSU	11-2	1051
9	Boise State	12-1	1031
10	Alabama	10-3	961

Now let's look at where three teams that finished in the Top 5 that did not start in the Top 10, started in the preseason rankings. Auburn won the national championship and was ranked 22nd in the AP Preseason, Oregon finished third and started 11th, and Stanford finished 4th while starting unranked.
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Remarkably, out of the teams that started in the Top 10 in the 2009 season, seven finished in the Top 10. And of the teams to finish in the Top 5, four of them started in the Top 10.

AP 2009 Preseason Top 10 Poll

1	Florida (58)	0-0	1498
2	Texas (2)	0-0	1424
3	Oklahoma	0-0	1370
4	USC	0-0	1313
5	Alabama	0-0	1156
6	Ohio State	0-0	1113
7	Virginia Tech	0-0	1054
8	Ole Miss	0-0	1047
9	Oklahoma State	0-0	989
9	Penn State	0-0	989

AP 2009 Final Top 10 Poll

1	Alabama (60)	14-0	1500
2	Texas	13-1	1399
3	Florida	13-1	1370
4	Boise State	14-0	1366
5	Ohio State	11-2	1224
6	TCU	12-1	1163
7	Iowa	11-2	1126
8	Cincinnati	12-1	1060
9	Penn State	11-2	1016
10	Virginia Tech	10-3	953

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Of the teams to begin in the Top 10 in 2008, only four finished in the Top 10. Three of the teams in the final Top 5 began the season in the Top 10. For the most part it seems as if the AP Poll does a good job of pegging a few elite teams, but misses on surprise teams and other teams that are simply overrated. Of the past three AP Polls, two teams from the Top 4 have played in the BCS Championship Game, meaning that in the past three years you had a greater chance of looking outside of the Top 4 to find a national title game participant than in looking in the Top 4. However, look at the Top 5, and in the past three years, 4 of the six participants have started in the Top 5.

AP 2008 Preseason Top 10 Poll

1	Georgia (22)	0-0	1528
2	Ohio State (21)	0-0	1506
3	USC (12)	0-0	1490
4	Oklahoma (4)	0-0	1444
5	Florida (6)	0-0	1415
6	Missouri	0-0	1266
7	LSU	0-0	1135
8	West Virginia	0-0	1116
9	Clemson	0-0	1105
10	Auburn	0-0	968

AP 2008 Final Top 10 Poll

1	Florida (48)	13-1	1606
2	Utah (16)	13-0	1519
3	USC (1)	12-1	1481
4	Texas	12-1	1478
5	Oklahoma	12-2	1391
6	Alabama	12-2	1264
7	TCU	11-2	1193
8	Penn State	11-2	1153
9	Ohio State	10-3	1013
10	Oregon	10-3	997

Where Do National Championship Coaches Come From?

2011-08-10T07:46:00.000-07:00

Looking at data from 1980, we find that from 1980 through 1986 all the coaches that won national titles had no previous head coaching experience. Some of those names are the biggest names in college football history, including Joe Paterno, Barry Switzer, LaVell Edwards, and Vince Dooley. In 1987, Jimmy Johnson started a trend reversal when he became the first coach with prior head coaching experience to win a national title since 1979 when Bear Bryant won his sixth and final championship at Alabama.

Larry Coker did not have previous head coaching experience.

Since 1987, 21 different coaches have won national titles, and of those coaches, 15 have had previous head coaching experience. From 1997 to 2001, five of the six coaches who won national titles did not have previous head coaching experience prior to being appointed head coach of their team. These coaches are Tom Osborne, Lloyd Carr, Phillip Fulmer, Bob Stoops, and Larry Coker. The lone exception was Bobby Bowden in 1999. All coaches to win a national title since 2002 have had previous head coaching experience, and only five coaches without previous head coaching experience have appeared in the BCS National Championship Game, including Bob Stoops, Phillip Fulmer, Larry Coker, Frank Solich, and Chip Kelly. Larry Coker was the last coach to win a national title without having previous head coaching experience in 2001.

Though previous head coaching experience is preferable, especially in a day and age where coaches are highly unlikely to stay at a school for more than ten years, it is possible to find a highly qualified assistant that will create success at a program such as Stoops, Fulmer, Carr, and more recently, Oregon's Kelly.

A total of 27 coaches have won a national title since 1980. Of those 27, we found the coaching backgrounds of 25 of them. Of those 25 coaches, 15 had offensive backgrounds and 10 had defensive backgrounds.

1980 - Vince Dooley, no prior head coaching experience
1981 - Danny Ford, Clemson, no prior head coaching experience, offensive assistant
1982, 1986 - Joe Paterno, Penn State, no prior head coaching experience, offensive assistant
1983 - Howard Schnellenberger, Miami, Fla., no prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1984 - LaVell Edwards, BYU, no prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1985 - Barry Switzer, Oklahoma, no prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1987 - Jimmy Johnson, Miami, Fla., prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
1988 - Lou Holtz, Notre Dame, prior head coaching experience
1989, 1991 - Dennis Erickson, Miami, Fla., prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1990 - Bill McCartney, Colorado, no prior college head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
1990 - Bobby Ross, Georgia Tech, prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
1991 - Don James, Washington, prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
1992 - Gene Stallings, Alabama, prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
1993, 1999 - Bobby Bowden, Florida St., prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1994, 1995, 1997 - Tom Osborne, Nebraska, no prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1996 - Steve Spurrier, Florida, prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
1997 - Lloyd Carr, Michigan, no prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
1998 - Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee, no prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
2000 - Bob Stoops, Oklahoma, no prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
2001 - Larry Coker, Miami, Fla., no prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
2002 - Jim Tressel, Ohio St., prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
2003, 2009 - Nick Saban, LSU, prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
2003, 2004 - Pete Carroll, USC, prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator
2005 - Mack Brown, Texas, prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
2006, 2008 - Urban Meyer, Florida, prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
2007 - Les Miles, LSU, prior head coaching experience, offensive coordinator
2010 - Gene Chizik, Auburn, prior head coaching experience, defensive coordinator

National Championship Winning Coaches

2011-08-09T08:52:00.000-07:00

Bob Stoops has been a BCS mainstay.

When did coaches win their national championships at their school? I was interested in looking at the years in which coaches won a national championship to see if any trends would emerge. Since 1997, there has been an interesting trend emerge between coaches and the years they had coached at the school when winning a national title. I looked at data as far back as 1980 and included split national titles (1990, 1991, 1997, 2003). Below is a list of the national title winning coaches, their school, their championship and how many years they had been at the school, and how many years they coached at that school. My findings are below the list.

1980 - Vince Dooley, Georgia, 1st national title in 17th season at school (coached 25 seasons)
1981 - Danny Ford, Clemson, 1st national title in 4th season at school (coached 12 seasons)
1982 - Joe Paterno, Penn State, 1st national title in 17th season at school (entering 46th season)
1983 - Howard Schnellenberger, Miami, Fla., 1st national title in 5th season at school (coached 5 seasons)
1984 - LaVell Edwards, BYU, 1st national title in 13th season at school (coached 27 seasons)
1985 - Barry Switzer, Oklahoma, 3rd national title in 13th season at school (coached 16 seasons)
1986 - Joe Paterno, Penn State, 2nd national title in 21st season (entering 46th season)
1987 - Jimmy Johnson, Miami, Fla., 1st national title in 4th season (coached 5 seasons)
1988 - Lou Holtz, Notre Dame, 1st national title in 3rd season (coached 11 seasons)
1989 - Dennis Erickson, Miami, Fla., 1st national title in 1st season (coached 6 seasons)
1990 - Bill McCartney, Colorado, 1st national title in 9th season (coached 13 seasons)
1990 - Bobby Ross, Georgia Tech, 1st national title in 4th season (coached 5 seasons)
1991 - Dennis Erickson, Miami, Fla., 2nd national title in 3rd season (coached 6 seasons)
1991 - Don James, Washington, 1st national title 17th season (coached 18 seasons)
1992 - Gene Stallings, Alabama, 1st national title in 3rd season (coached 7 seasons)
1993 - Bobby Bowden, Florida St., 1st national title in 18th season (coached 34 seasons)
1994 - Tom Osborne, Nebraska, 1st national title in 22nd season (coached 25 seasons)
1995 - Tom Osborne, Nebraska, 2nd national title in 23rd season (coached 25 seasons)
1996 - Steve Spurrier, Florida, 1st national title in 7th season (coached 12 seasons)
1997 - Tom Osborne, Nebraska, 3rd national title in 25th season (coached 25 seasons)
1997 - Lloyd Carr, Michigan, 1st national title in 3rd season (coached 13 seasons)
1998 - Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee, 1st national title in 7th season (coached 17 seasons)
1999 - Bobby Bowden, Florida St., 2nd national title in 24th season (coached 34 seasons)
2000 - Bob Stoops, Oklahoma, 1st national title in 2nd season (entering 13th season)
2001 - Larry Coker, Miami, Fla., 1st national title in 1st season (coached 6 seasons)
2002 - Jim Tressel, Ohio St., 1st national title in 2nd season (coached 10 seasons)
2003 - Nick Saban, LSU, 1st national title in 4th season (coached 5 seasons)
2003 - Pete Carroll, USC, 1st national title in 3rd season (coached 9 seasons)
2004 - Peter Carroll, USC, 2nd national title in 4th season (coached 9 seasons)
2005 - Mack Brown, Texas, 1st national title in 8th season (entering 14th season)
2006 - Urban Meyer, Florida, 1st national title in 2nd season (coached 6 seasons)
2007 - Les Miles, LSU, 1st national title in 3rd season (entering 7th season)
2008 - Urban Meyer, Florida, 2nd national title in 4th season (coached 6 seasons)
2009 - Nick Saban, Alabama, 1st national title in 3rd season at school (entering 5th season at school)
2010 - Gene Chizik, Auburn, 1st national title in 2nd season (entering 3rd season)

From 1980 to 1989, there were 10 national titles awarded without a coach with repeat national titles. Five of the coaches won in their 5th season or less, and five of the coaches won a national title after more than 13 years at their school. Only Joe Paterno won a national title after more than 20 years on the job, winning his second national title in 1987 in his 21st season.

From 1990 to 1999, there were 13 national titles awarded, with one coach winning two titles (Bobby Bowden) and another winning three titles (Tom Osborne). Six national titles were won by coaches with more than 15 years at a school, with Osborne and Bowden accounting for five of those championships, and Don James accounting for the other. Four coaches won a championship in less than five years, and three coaches won a championship between their sixth and tenth years.

From 2000 to 2010 (11 seasons), there were 12 national titles awarded. Three coaches won two national titles (Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban). Of the 12 national titles, not a single coach was at their school more than 10 years when they won. In fact, of the 12 national titles, 11 of them were won by coaches in their 4th season at a school or less. The lone exception was Texas' Mack Brown who won in his eighth season at the school.

Since 1997 - a span of 16 national titles - only two titles were won by coaches with more than 10 years at their school, and both coaches have now retired (Osborne and Bowden). Not a single coach has won between their 10th and 20th season coaching since 1993 when Bowden won his first national title in his 18th season at Florida St. Since 1986, only two coaches have won a national title between their 10th and 20th seasons at a school; the aforementioned Bowden and Washington's James who won in his 17th season.

I think this speaks for how competitive college football has become and how quickly a coach, given the resources, can comprise a national title team. I think it also speaks for the constant grind of the job and how difficult it is now to stay in coaching with one school like the Switzers, Dooleys, Bowdens, Osbornes, Fulmers, Paternos, Edwards' and James' of the coaching world. Of the teams in Phil Steele's preseason top 40, only seven coaches have been at their schools for 10 or more years. Perhaps newer coaches have an advantage over more experienced coaches in that they are innovating the way the game is being played.

Bob Stoops is now entering some rarified company as he begins his 13th season at Oklahoma, as is Texas' Brown as he enters his 14th season. For whatever reason, however, the odds are stacked against them that they will win a title between now and their 20th season, which makes sense since the field is stacked against them.

I would give Stoops the best chance of becoming the first coach with more than 10 years of experience to win a title since Bobby Bowden did it in 1999 in his 24th season. Stoops has become one of college football's innovators which has allowed him to appear in four BCS Championship Games in 12 seasons.

Job Security of College Football Coaches; Introduction of "Win Gain"

2011-08-03T12:20:00.000-07:00

In doing some research of college football coaches, I came across an interesting stat suggesting the "fireability" of a coach through four years. From 2000-2010, there were 113 coaches hired at BCS conference schools and at five additional schools; Notre Dame, BYU, Utah, TCU, and Hawaii. I looked at the first four years because that is typically the amount of time that a school will give a coach to prove their worth. In fact, to find how many times a university will give its coach four years, we reduced the 113 hires by the number of coaches who left for another job before their fourth year at a school, willingly resigned prior to their fourth year, and active coaches that have not or are not yet preparing for their fourth season at a school. The research indicated that 85 coaches did not leave for another job, are at least entering their fourth year at a school, or were fired before their fourth year. Of those 85 coaches, a total of 72 -- or 84.7 percent -- of their schools allowed them to enter their fourth year.

Stanford's Jim Harbaugh compiled the highest "net win gain."

Now, I came across a stat I'll call "win gain." The "win gain" takes a look at the records of five seasons, the first record is the record the departing coach left an incoming coach. The next four records were a coach's first four seasons. Some coaches did not last four years, or even three years. So a coach with four seasons would have had five seasons of comparison, a coach with three seasons would have had four years of comparison, a coach with two years at a school would have three years of comparison, and a coach with one year at a school would have two years of comparison. The net win gain suggests that in the first four years an incoming coach is measured against the final record of his predecessor and by the consistency and success of his own tenure. A coach can build a lot of goodwill in his first four years at a school, and based on the previous stat it shows that the majority of schools are willing to give coaches the four years to do that.

Let's take a look at former Minnesota coach Tim Brewster as an example. The departing coach, Glen Mason, left his final season at Minnesota with a 6-7 record. Brewster finished his first season with a 1-11 record, leaving him with a net "win gain" of -5. Ouch. Now, in Brewster's second season, his team finished with a 7-6 record, leaving him with a "win gain" from the previous year of +6. After two seasons, Brewster had a "net win gain" of +1. Brewster's third year he went 6-7, and then in his fourth year he was fired midseason after tumbling through a 1-6 record. Brewster coached into his fourth year, giving us five years of comparison that includes his predecessor's final season, which I will now list: 6-7, 1-11, 7-6, 6-7, 1-6. Brewster's net "win gain" in the four seasons he coached was -5.

Four important disclosures, 1) I did not include the records of interim coaches who only coached a few games of a season or one bowl game, but I did include the team's final record as the basis of comparison for the first season of an incoming coach, regardless of the fact that two coaches were in charge of a team during one season. (ex: Brewster went 1-6, then interim coach Jeff Horton went 2-3, so the comparison for incoming coach Jerry Kill will be a 3-9 season.) 2) Losses are irrelevant in this calculation. What we are looking for is an increase in wins, which is actually favorable to a coach since schools have now moved to a 12-game schedule, thus giving coaches more opportunities to win more games. 3) In my opinion, you can only really fairly use the net win gain after a coach's fourth season, though we did extend it for coaches that have coached through their third season for data-gathering purposes. 4) The data provided gives a snapshot of today entering the 2011 season, not of any trends from previous seasons.

What I found was startling. Though I'm certain that this calculation has many flaws, it indicated which coaches were likely to be fired after four seasons, and which ones were likely to keep their jobs. The overwhelming majority of coaches with a positive net win gain were retained, while a slight majority of coaches with a negative net win gain were fired. And coaches that had a neutral net win gain, or a 0, had a good chance of keeping their jobs. Now you would say that this makes sense, why would a school keep a losing coach? And it's obvious that a school would keep a winning coach. But that's not necessarily the case. For example, let's take a look at Vanderbilt coach Bobby Johnson who coached for eight seasons at Vanderbilt.

Since Johnson coached for eight seasons, we have five seasons of comparison for the net win gain, the first being the record left to him by his predecessor. Comparing his predecessor's last season with Johnson's first four years we have: 2-9, 2-10, 2-10, 2-9, 5-6. His net win gain after four seasons was +3. He kept his job and went on to coach four more years before retiring just before the 2010 season. You say, that's Vanderbilt, they don't really care about football there so Johnson was given more time to turn things around. Besides, he probably saved his job because he had a much better fourth year, which is absolutely true. The importance of a fourth year cannot be underestimated.

Rich Rodriguez could have benefitted from a 4th year

But let's go look at a school that really does care about its program, Michigan. Rich Rodriguez coached at Michigan for three seasons before being fired, all while showing progress in the win column in his three years there. Let's calculate his net win gain through three seasons: 9-4, 3-9, 5-7, 7-6, net win gain of -2. After three seasons Rodriguez was fired, and I would argue that had he won nine games in his third season, despite all the controversy surrounding him, he would have kept his job, or that he would have needed to win at least nine games in his fourth season if he had any shot of keeping his job. But Rodriguez did not win nine games in his third season, and he wasn't given the chance to enter a fourth season, but we do know where his net win gain stood after three seasons.

There were 82 coaches hired between 2000 and 2008 that have coached at least three seasons at their schools. Of those coaches, we could exclude Les Miles (OK State), Jim Harbaugh (Stanford), Mark Dantonio (Cincinnati), Brian Kelly (Cincinnati), and Bobby Petrino (Louisville) because they did not keep their jobs by accepting other jobs after either their third or fourth seasons at their school. But it is safe to assume that each one would have been back at their post if they had the desire to do so. Each one was extremely successful at their school and had a positive net win gain at the time they left their school. So we will stick with a sample of 82 coaches who coached at least three seasons at their school regardless of whether or not they left for another job.

Did Ty Willingham deserve a 4th year at Notre Dame?

Of the 46 coaches with a positive net win gain after either their third or fourth seasons, all have kept their jobs with the LONE exception of Ty Willingham during his tenure at Notre Dame. Keep in mind, this does not mean the coach was not fired after their fifth or subsequent seasons, but that the university allowed them to go beyond a fourth year. Coaches on this list include (Sylvester Croom (5 total seasons, 17-30 in first four seasons), Rich Brooks (7 total seasons, 17-30 first four seasons), Bobby Johnson (8 total seasons, 11-35 first four seasons), and Charlie Weis (5 total seasons, 29-21 first four seasons). Former North Carolina coach Butch Davis, though fired just before the beginning of his fifth season, does not count against this list because he was not fired for on-the-field performance. After three seasons at Notre Dame, Willingham's net win gain was +1, compared to Weis' +2 after four seasons.

Of the 13 coaches with a negative net win gain after four seasons of coaching, six kept their jobs [Les Miles (LSU), Larry Coker (Miami), Bill Doba (Washington St.), Dennis Erickson (Arizona St.), Dan Hawkins (Colorado), and Gary Patterson (TCU)]. It should be noted that Miles and Coker had won national titles within their tenures, and Erickson had won two national titles while at Miami. Doba and Hawkins were fired after their fifth seasons, Coker was fired after six seasons, Miles has been a controversial coach at LSU, Erickson should be considered on the hot seat entering this season, and Patterson has become one of the best coaches in the country.

Of the 12 coaches with a negative net win gain after three seasons of coaching, five kept their jobs [Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech), Paul Wulff (Washington St.), Rick Neuheisel (UCLA), and Greg McMackin (Hawaii)]. Those that lost their jobs are Ed Orgeron (Ole Miss.), Ron Zook (Florida), Gerry Di Nardo (Indiana), Bobby Williams (Michigan St.), Rich Rodriguez (Michigan), Buddy Teevens (Stanford), and Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville).

Of the 10 coaches with a neutral net win gain after four seasons, seven kept their jobs [Jim Tressel, Bret Bielema, Ralph Friedgen, John Bunting, Chan Gailey, Karl Dorrell, and Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia)] The three that were fired were Randy Shannon, Bill Lynch, and John L. Smith.

There was one coach, Ron Prince (Kansas St.), with a neutral net win gain after three seasons, and he was fired after the 2008 season.

Which coaches had the highest net win gain after four seasons? Jim Harbaugh (Stanford) +11, Nick Saban (LSU) +10, Pete Carroll (USC) +8, Jeff Tedford (Cal) +7, Mark Dantonio (Michigan St.) +7, Sylvester Croom (Miss. St.) +6, Urban Meyer (Florida) +6, and Tom O'Brien (NC State) +6.

Which coaches had the lowest net win gain after three or four seasons? Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville) -8, Bobby Williams (Michigan St.) -7, Tim Brewster (Minnesota) -5, Buddy Teevens (Stanford) -5, Bill Doba (Washington St.) -4, Paul Wulff (Washington St.) -4, Bill Callahan (Nebraska) -4, Ted Roof (Duke) -4, Dan Hawkins (Colorado) -4, and very surprisingly Gary Patterson (TCU) -5. Patterson's negative win gain is the result of having an inaugural 6-6 season after a 10-2 season by Dennis Franchione, and following up an 11-2 season in his third year with a disastrous 5-6 season his fourth year.

Disturbingly, where 46 coaches had a positive net win gain after their third or fourth seasons, only Willingham was not retained. Of the 11 coaches with a neutral net win gain after three or four seasons, only four were not retained, including Miami's Shannon and Kansas State's Prince. All the coaches mentioned above are African-American. It's not to say that their firings didn't have some merit, but their firings are also contradictory to what the numbers say.

I totally made up this "win gain" stat and it may very well be that it has no significant bearing on anything, but it is interesting to see where the exceptions lie and where some trends emerge. I know for sure that I am not the first to think of the concept of a "win gain" or to apply such a concept over a prescribed amount of time (in this case 3 and 4 years). Perhaps athletic departments take this idea into account, whether subconsciously or not, when deciding the fate of their coach, or not. It'll be interesting to track this little stat as more coaches finish up their third and fourth seasons.

College Football Coaches in Their 2nd Year

2011-08-01T12:31:00.000-07:00

For the first time ever I bought a preseason magazine for college football, Phil Steele's annual preview. I was impressed by all the work he put into it and all the numbers he crunches to come up with what is ultimately an educated guess.

Jimbo Fisher (left) has rightfully high expectations at FSU.

In that same vein, I decided to crunch a few numbers of my own relating to coaches at BCS conference schools and five additional programs (Boise St., TCU, Notre Dame, Hawaii, and BYU). I took a look at coaches hired from 2000-2010, giving me 11 years of data. Some coaches are still active, some just finished their first year in 2010, and others have been hired more than once.

The first stat I wanted to look at was how much coaches improved their school's win total from one year to another. I only took a look at the first four years of a coach's tenure, realizing that some coaches did not make it to even their second year at a school, let alone their third and fourth years, and a small number of coaches are at their same school after 10 years or more. Schools typically give a coach four years to work on their program before deciding on whether to keep him or not.

Out of 113 coaches hired at the schools I studied, 49.5 percent were able to increase their school's win total in their first year, 13 percent stayed the same, and 37.5 percent went down. Remarkably, of the 100 coaches that have made it to their second year, 59 percent increased their win total from the previous year, 13 percent stayed the same, and 28 percent went down in win totals. But things take a downward turn in the third year.

Of the 82 coaches in their third year at the same school, only 41 percent increased their win totals from the previous year, 12 percent stayed the same, and a whopping 47 percent went down in win totals. I figured that this would be the case if a coach had a strong second season, then it would be difficult to match those win totals in the third year. OK. I can buy that argument. So I went ahead and took a look at the coach's fourth year, a critical year for all coaches in terms of contract extensions and retainability. Of the 60 coaches in their fourth year, 45 percent increased their win totals from the year before, 5 percent stayed the same, and an eye-opening 50 percent went down in win totals.

This speaks to the importance of a coach's second season. This information doesn't speak to any one school looking at insight for what to expect from their coaches, but it does appear that coaches are able to build upon their first year 59 percent of the time, and at no other point in their first four years will they be more likely to increase their school's win total from the previous year than in that second year. This means good things, especially if your coach's first season was a good one, because the likelihood your school will not at least match the previous year's win total is only 28 percent.

I think the numbers also suggest that being a college head football coach is very difficult, and to be able to sustain a winning program is even harder. In some ways, the longer a coach is at a school, the harder it may become to continue building off of any initial success. It could also suggest that a coach simply isn't very good or isn't a good fit at a school, and it takes about four years to finally figure that out.

This is by no means a guarantee of anything in any way, but it speaks well of a second-year coach in charge of a talented team. Recent second-year coaches that have won a national title or appeared in the title game since the 2000 season include Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, Chip Kelly, Jim Tressel, and Gene Chizik. If this trend holds up, Notre Dame's Brian Kelly and Florida State's Jimbo Fisher should very well be considered legitimate national title contenders.

Bob Bradley Out, Juergen Klinsmann In As U.S. Soccer Coach

2011-07-29T14:03:00.000-07:00

The firing of Bob Bradley was unexpected and a bit unfair if you ask me. From what reports indicate, he had lost the respect of some of the top players on the team, including the two regarded as the best on the team, Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey. Bradley had a 43-25-12 record as coach of the United States from 2006 - 2011. Bradley's tenure included a thrilling run in the 2010 South Africa World Cup and an upset of world No. 1 Spain in the 2009 Confederations Cup to stop Spain's 35-game unbeaten streak. Since that game more than two years ago, the Spanish national team has lost just three times.

Juergen Klinsmann takes over U.S. soccer.

But the recent developments at the Gold Cup, and Mexico's recent domination of the United States led to Bradley's dismissal. I think it's unfair because to put it simply, Mexico's team is stocked with more talent at this point than the U.S. side. For one thing, Mexico has some of its brightest and youngest players playing in some of the best soccer clubs in the world, including Javier Hernandez (23) for Manchester United, Carlos Vela (22) for Arsenal, Jonathan dos Santos (21) for Barcelona, and Giovanni dos Santos (22) for Tottenham Hotspur.

Where are the U.S. players plying their trade? The majority are playing in Major League Soccer, where the MLS All-Star team that included David Beckham and Thierry Henry were dominated by Manchester United 4-0. The top players that do play for top overseas clubs are aging stars like Dempsey (28), Carlos Bocanegra (32), Tim Howard (32), and Steve Cherundolo (32). Donovan is 29 years old and plays for the LA Galaxy. There are young guys like Jozy Altidore, Juan Agudelo, Freddy Adu, Maurice Edu, and Eric Lichaj that are coming down the pipeline, but they're a largely unproven group. In essence, for the past year Bradley was coaching an aging team without a core of young talent coming up behind the veterans. By all accounts, U.S. soccer is getting better with the MLS leading the way in youth development that wasn't there a mere 10 years ago, but the national team now finds itself at a crossroad.

Enter Juergen Klinsmann, by all accounts a different kind of coach from Bradley, which means that Klinsmann is more inclined to an attacking style as opposed to Bradley's more conservative approach. Klinsmann is widely regarded for leading a beat-up Germany squad to the semifinals of the 2006 World Cup, but flamed out as coach of Bayern Munich of the German Bundesliga. That's fine, since many successful national team coaches don't quite do as well being club coaches.

U.S. Soccer Federation president Sunil Gulati has twice previously tried to hire Klinsmann but the German-born coach twice turned down his offer. Gulati is widely respected and he must believe, maybe even stake his job on it, that Klinsmann will be able to somehow reshape the U.S. soccer system from the youth level on up, and take the national team beyond the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. It's also expected that under new leadership the United States will take over Mexico for regional dominance, but for that to happen the U.S. needs to somehow get younger and better.

Bradley made the U.S. soccer brand more respectable around the world, building on what predecessor Bruce Arena had done in taking the U.S. soccer team to the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup in South Korea. By all accounts Bradley left the U.S. soccer team in better shape than when he found it, and now it's up to Klinsmann to bring in his coaching expertise. Klinsmann also becomes the first foreign-born coach to head the U.S. soccer team since Bora Milutinovic (1991-1995), who led the U.S. into the Round of 16 in the 1994 World Cup in the United States.

Just wishful thinking here, but imagine if Klinsmann doesn't work out, or if he decides he's done a fair job of elevating U.S. soccer, would Jose Mourinho be a candidate for the U.S. team three or four years from now? Mourinho has expressed interest in coaching the U.S. in the future, and is widely regarded as the greatest coach on the planet. His nickname is "The Special One." If the U.S. somehow managed to get him, that would be a coup. But I'm hoping Klinsmann is successful and that he can create something special of his own for the U.S.

Butch Davis Out; High Profile Coaches Reeling

2011-07-28T09:22:00.000-07:00

Nobody is fresh as Marvin Austin.

Obviously the timing of the decision to fire Butch Davis was questionable at best, but not many people are surprised that Davis did end up getting fired. Most people thought that if a decision was made to let go of Davis, that it would have come at the end of the season, not eight days before North Carolina was set to open its summer camp. The decision to fire Davis was a judgment call. Although there is absolutely no proof that he knew of any wrongdoing, Davis must take the fall because he was the man in charge. He should have done a better job of monitoring his program. At the end of the day, all of the transgressions proved to be too much for Davis to keep his job.

In another surprising move, UNC athletics director Dick Baddour resigned. Talk about a scandal reaching the heights of an athletic department.

All this goes to show to that as much as winning football games, and recruiting the best players, coaching at the biggest stage of the NCAA now requires a strong ability to self-monitor one's own program and to surround yourself with people you can trust. Davis is now the third really big name to go down because of scandals involving agents and boosters. Pete Carroll saw the writing on the wall and ditched USC before he could suffer the consequences brought about by Reggie Bush and former assistant coach Todd McNair. The scandal also cost former athletics director Mike Garrett his job.

Tressel, who deserved to be fired more than either Carroll or Davis based on circumstantial evidence, placed his bets on Terrelle Pryor, Dan Herron, Mike Adams, Devier Posey, and Solomon Thomas. He ended up on the wrong side of the bet. While Pryor was a tremendous talent for the Buckeyes and continued Ohio State's domination of the Big Ten, would Tressel recruit him again knowing what he knows now?

Then there's the Davis scandal. He was done in by a rogue assistant coach he trusted in John Blake, a guy making $240,000 per year and yet acted as a runner for an agent so that he could turn over a few more bucks. Then there are all the players Davis recruited who seemed to be entitled and selfish. It was found that Greg Little had accumulated 91 parking tickets while a student-athlete at North Carolina, and even then there were people trying to pay those off for him. You had a guy like Marvin Austin tweeting things like, "Jus got to DC an I'm feelin a shopn spee....nobody gon be fresh as ME!!!!" I hope Austin purposely misspelled what he wrote, and how stupid do you have to be to post something like that?

Coaches always talk about recruiting high-character guys and not just four- and five-star guys that act like prima donnas. Coaches also need to make sure that they get good, honest people on their staffs. I doubt that either Carroll, Tressel, or Davis thought they were signing their letters of resignation when they were signing guys like Pryor, Austin, and Bush. If coaches like them can go down, it should serve as a warning to all college football coaches that it can happen to them, starting with the kids they bring in on signing day. In truth, it'll be only about another season before we find out who's next to go.

National Champion Won't Come from the SEC

2011-07-25T10:38:00.000-07:00

Landry Jones has all the makings of a national champion.

There's nothing I can write to justify this. It's not to say that the best football played won't be in the SEC, but it is highly unlikely that for the sixth straight year the national champion will come out of the same conference. The top two teams in the SEC will again be Alabama and Florida. Nick Saban, aka "Evil Genius," will have his team prepared to devastate just about everyone that comes across its path because of its defense. As much flack as Alabam took last year for its inconsistent defense, the Crimson Tide still finished ranked fifth in the nation in total defense. What the Crimson Tide are underestimating is the loss of first-rounders Mark Ingram and Julio Jones. You simply don't replace those guys, no matter how good you think the replacements are going to be. As you will see, you also can't just replace an upperclassman quarterback like Greg McElroy either.

The Gators are a bit of an enigma. Many people are assuming that this will be a transition year, so the expectations have been lowered in Gainesville. I believe the transition year took place last year, where quarterback John Brantley struggled mightily through a spread offense that just wasn't working and was destroying any success its defense had. Charlie Weis should immediately improve the Gator offense, and the recruits from UF's monster 2010 recruiting class will bear fruit this year. While the Gators don't quite seem to be title contenders this year, I'll explain later why I'd pick them over the Crimson Tide to get to the national title game.

As good as Alabama is going to be, and as good as UF has the potential to be, the national champion is going to come out of either the Pac-10 or the Big 12 this year. That's because the teams to beat this year are Oregon, Oklahoma, and Stanford. The biggest reason? Their quarterbacks. Going back to 1998, the year the first BCS Championship Game was played, can we find a common denominator between all the winning teams? Yes. All the winning quarterbacks were either juniors or seniors. Let's list them (because I like lists), along with the quarterbacks from the losing team:

1998 Tennesse (Tee Martin, junior) vs. Florida State (Marcus Outzen, redshirt sophomore)
1999 Florida State (Chris Weinke, junior) vs. Virginia Tech (Michael Vick, redshirt freshman)
2000 Oklahoma (Josh Heupel, senior) vs. Florida State (Chris Weinke, senior)
2001 Miami (Ken Dorsey, junior) vs. Nebraska (Eric Crouch, senior)
2002 Ohio St. (Craig Krenzel, junior) vs. Miami (Ken Dorsey, senior)
2003 LSU (Matt Mauck, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Jason White, senior)
2004 USC (Matt Leinart, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Jason White, senior, 6th year)
2005 Texas (Vince Young, senior) vs. USC (Matt Leinart, senior)
2006 Florida (Chris Leak, senior) vs. Ohio St. (Troy Smith, senior)
2007 LSU (Matt Flynn, senior) vs. Ohio St. (Todd Boeckman, senior, 5th year)
2008 Florida (Tim Tebow, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford, sophomore)
2009 Alabama (Greg McElroy, junior) vs. Texas (Colt McCoy, senior)
2010 Auburn (Cam Newton, junior) vs. Oregon (Darron Thomas, redshirt sophomore)

What can we take out of this list? Out of the last 26 teams to have played for the BCS National Championship, 24 out 26 teams had quarterbacks with at least three years of experience (including redshirt years) with the lone exceptions being No. 1 overall picks Sam Bradford and Michael Vick, and 22 out of 26 teams had either a junior or senior starting quarterback. Interestingly, nine out of the 13 winning quarterbacks were juniors, with five times a junior beating a senior, and no instances of a senior beating a junior. This year Oregon enters the season with Darron Thomas as a redshirt junior, Oklahoma with Landry Jones as a redshirt junior, and Stanford with Andrew Luck as a, you guessed it, redshirt junior.

It's not to say that teams are winning championships because their quarterbacks are either junior or seniors, but I think it says that teams need -- with exceptions -- a quarterback with experience to guide them through a national championship season. Once teams reach the BCS title game all bets are off.

So let's go back to the SEC. If I had to pick the SEC Champion right now, I'd probably pick Alabama, but if I had to pick a team more likely to reach the national championship game, then I'd have to say Florida. Alabama is still trying to decide whether to start redshirt freshman Phillip Sims or redshirt sophomore A.J. McCarron. Florida in the meantime will be fighting its way with Brantley, a fifth-year senior. I'm aware teams need more than just a quarterback to win national championships. They also need great defenses, solid offensive lines, experience across the entire team, superior talent, and a little bit of luck. It's just that you can't cut corners at the quarterback position.

Along with Oregon, Stanford, and Oklahoma to appear in the national title game here are a few darkhorses and some other favorites to get into the national title game:

Boise State (If they can go undefeated with victories against Georgia, TCU, and San Diego St., then I'm all for letting Boise State play in the BCS National Championship Game. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore will be leading the way).
Florida (Urban Meyer's last two recruiting classes were epic and those players are ready to show what they're made of. Brantley has a great deal of talent and should flourish under Charlie Weis)
Florida St. (Redshirt junior EJ Manuel is very good and the Seminoles are on the way up with a lot of talent. Second-year coaches have a knack for having great success at their schools, i.e. Jim Tressel, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, etc.)
Miami (a team loaded with talent and experience, and only if Jacory Harris wins quarterback competition)
Notre Dame (Brian Kelly is entering his second season as head coach with a talented nucleus of players and senior quarterback Dayne Crist leading the way)
Wisconsin (Transfer Russell Wilson, a redshirt senior, is a talent and with Ohio St. on the way down, Wisconsin has a chance to capitalize on an undefeated season)

Butch Davis Could Have Been Pete Carroll

2011-07-21T11:19:00.000-07:00

Will this be Butch Davis' last year at UNC?

As we head into another season of college football, I can't help but write about one of my favorite coaches - Butch Davis. Now at North Carolina, Davis has made North Carolina football relevant. Last year I was convinced he was going to take the Tar Heels to a BCS Bowl Game with the ridiculous talent assembled on the defensive side of the ball. But a scandal involving sports agents and impermissible benefits caused 13 North Carolina players to either be suspended for part of the season or to be ruled permanently ineligible. Three players that were supposed to contribute did not play a down of football because of the scandal, including first-round pick Robert Quinn, and second-rounders Greg Little and Marvin Austin. Star cornerback Kendric Burney was suspended for six games and fellow star safety Deunta Williams was suspended for four games.

In the 2011 NFL Draft, the Tar Heels had nine players drafted, the most out of the ACC. The Tar Heels had four defensive players taken in the first four rounds, and then another player, linebacker Quan Sturdivant taken in the sixth round. They were built for a title run in 2010, but that dream dismantled before it could even take shape. Butch was just making the program a national contender until the scandal broke out. It was bad for college football, the ACC, North Carolina, but most of all for Davis.

Davis is credited, as he should be, for building a Miami powerhouse that from 2000-2002 went 35-2, including a national championship that he did not get to celebrate in because he was no longer the Miami coach. I believe his biggest mistake came in leaving a Miami program after a successful 2000 season because he had so painstakingly built up Miami from some very serious probationary sanctions. Very few people could recruit and find talent like Davis, and the evidence is in what he did while at Miami where he was responsible for recruiting a stable of first-round picks.

For a man so well respected in his profession, the truth is that Davis, now entering his 11th season as a college head coach, has just one outright Big East title and one BCS Bowl victory under his belt. Had he not left Miami after 2000, he surely would have been the Pete Carroll of the east. He would have won the title in place of Larry Coker in 2001, and I am convinced that a Davis-coached Hurricane team would have defeated Ohio State in the 2003 BCS Championship Game. Then there's no telling where the Hurricanes would have gone with where Davis put the program. Let me put it this way, Davis was such a good recruiter and coach that even Larry Coker was able to win a national title, appear in another national title game, and win the Orange Bowl in succession in his first three years. In Coker's last three years, the Hurricanes went 9-3, 9-3, and 7-6. No knock against Coker, who I think was a very good offensive coordinator. He was the man he was supposed to be in his first three years, but when Davis' players were gone, you could see that Coker was not the recruiter or talent evaluator that Davis was.

Plus, where was Coker's next coaching job? At a totally new program in the FCS, or I-AA for those of you more familiar with that classification, for the University of Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners whose inaugural season will be this year. I think Coker is more suited for this kind of job at this point in his career. But all of the "what-ifs" are irrelevant.

The fact is that Davis left Miami to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns (seriously?) where he never won more than nine games in a season and made one playoff appearance in a little more than 3 1/2 seasons. By the time he resigned midseason in 2004, he had gone a dismal 24-35, including a loss in the playoffs. He resurfaced in the college ranks in 2007 with North Carolina, and after an understandable 4-8 rebuilding year in his first season, Davis has managed to make the Tar Heel football brand respectable once again. But in his last three seasons the Tar Heels have remained stagnant, going 8-5 each year. Last year seemed like the breakout year, but the scandal left his team in pieces and Davis' job on the line.

Davis is one of my favorite coaches because he can recruit and evaluate talent unlike any other coach. He's shown he is capable of taking a program from the depths of probation to the very top of college football like he did with Miami, and that he can even take a school like North Carolina and stock it with NFL talent. But many times careers are built on the right timing. Just look at Coker and Davis. Coker can wear a national title ring, and Davis can wear a Big East conference title ring. In some instances Davis is to blame for possibly making the wrong career choice, and at other times he's been blindsided by scandal. Now Davis may end up out of a job if he is found to have been negligent in the sports-agent scandal, and pull North Carolina into its own dark probationary period. He may never realize the full potential of what he has built at North Carolina, and it wouldn't surprise me if he thinks, as Yogi Berra once said, "It's deja vu all over again."

Women's World Cup Ends; Japan is a Deserving Champion

2011-07-18T09:32:00.000-07:00

There's no doubt the U.S. played the better game, but in the end it came down to the fact that while the U.S. was more dominant, Japan was more poised. When you can beat Germany, Sweden, and the United States, you are absolutely a deserving world champion. Homare Sawa put in a ridiculous goal with just a few minutes remaining in the match to show why she is one of the greatest players in the history of the women's game.

Homare Sawa, the Japanese captain, stunned the United States.

I'm not one to dog any one player or team. Both teams handled themselves with absolute class when the match was over. The U.S. was a gracious loser, and Japan was exceptional in thanking the world and acknowledging the brilliant match they had just finished with the U.S. But, I knew as did the Japanese goalkeeper, that Shannon Boxx was going to her right on the penalty kick. I kept saying, "Go left, go left!" Instead, she went to her right, and I'm sure the Japanese keeper knew that based on Boxx's two penalty shots earlier in the tournament against Brazil. Boxx set the tone for the penalties for the U.S. and they could not recover from that shock.

A few more points that I need to get out of my system: I carried that loss with me for a while, just as a casual fan, I was still thinking about the loss as I went to bed. This women's team was proud to represent the United States and you can tell they weren't doing it just for themselves. They were playing for country pride, much in the same way the U.S. men's basketball team did at the 2008 Olympics. It hurt to see them lose, I mean, it really hurt. I can't describe what it was, but the pain of knowing that these women will forever be haunted, in one way or another, by this loss made me hurt for them.

Another thing: For all those people out there saying, "it's a bunch of girls kicking a ball around," or "watching women's sports is watching a substandard version of the sport" are just plain stupid. Those people need to shut up and come with a better, more creative argument. It's not cool any more to make fun of women's sports, that was never cool actually, but you might have received a few laughs about 10 years ago. If you're a sports fan and you like watching athletic competitions with athletes that have trained their entire lives to win on their sport's biggest stage, then you couldn't have asked for a better competition than the Women's World Cup. While the men's game can be a beautiful and impressive game, the women's version was much more entertaining and well-played (for one thing, there weren't anywhere near as many flops as in the men's game). This final was absolutely epic and was a completely better played and executed game than the Spain-Netherlands final in last year's men's final. After this tournament I'm an even bigger fan.

Let's hope Abby Wambach comes back for the 2015 World Cup in Canada (if anyone wants to make plans to go to those matches, let me know, I'm game). There isn't a more dominant or imposing player in the world. She was an absolute beast down the stretch for the U.S. through this tournament. I'm hoping her body holds up. Her game isn't predicated on speed, but on sheer physical dominance, so hopefully she can stay healthy and lead the U.S. once again four years from now.

Where does women's soccer go from here? For the United States, they ironically played their most technical and dominant game of the entire tournament in the final, but just could not find ways to put the ball in the net. This team is still one of the best in the world, and they should be the favorites for the 2012 London Olympics. A gold medal in London would be huge for U.S. soccer to redeem itself from its disappointment in the World Cup final. For the rest of women's soccer, hopefully the Women's Professional Soccer league (WPS) can capitalize on this year's World Cup, where a number of the best international players play. WPS needs to be able to capture a specific market interested in women's soccer, specifically young girls. Hopefully this World Cup legitimized the women's game to men who can take their daughters and sons to these sporting events.

Women's World Cup is Set; Japan vs. United States

2011-07-14T10:46:00.000-07:00

I've been wanting to write about other sports, but I can't get this Women's World Cup out of my head. I haven't been this into a sporting event in a while, probably not since following Michael Phelps during the 2008 Summer Olympics.

Will Megan Rapinoe start alongside Abby Wambach in Sunday's final?

Real quick assessment of what I saw: Japan is the real deal. Think about what they've done in beating Germany, the two-time defending champion, and then beating an undefeated Sweden that won group play against the United States. Japan is highly technical and skilled, and they play great defense, contesting every single ball. They're also very opportunistic. Japan looked so much better against Sweden than against Germany, which makes sense because Germany is an overall much better squad than Sweden, but the victory against Sweden solidified Japan's status as an elite soccer-playing nation. What I haven't seen from Japan is how their goalie responds to pressure. In the two games against Germany and Sweden the Japanese goalie was barely tested, so it remains to be seen how she will react to the U.S offense, especially on set pieces.

U.S. vs. France: Between the 10th minute and the 70th minute of the match, France absolutely dominated. It looked like the U.S was hanging on like a boxer hoping not to be knocked out so they can find an opening to deliver a knockout punch of their own. The U.S. delivered the knockout punch with yet another Abby Wambach header. France produced a number of shots, but they didn't have a close-range game, mostly threatening from the outside with laser beam kicks that either barely missed or were swallowed up by goalkeeper Hope Solo. The lack of an inside closer cost the French the victory. And speaking of closers, it's safe to say that Wambach is the greatest aerial striker in women's soccer history. That's no exaggeration either as she's already cemented herself as the leader of the U.S. women's team and the greatest American player of her generation.

No doubt that the Americans looked completely different when Megan Rapinoe entered the game. She brought in energy to a dull American squad that still seemed hungover from the huge win against Brazil. Alex Morgan was also a key substitute, and you can tell she is skilled at finding seams to get open and take shots. Does Rapinoe start in the final? I'm not sure. My head says she should start, but my gut tells me that as talented as she is, she best serves the team off the bench.

Gotta say one more thing about the broadcasting. The best broadcaster has by far been Brandi Chastain. She's absolutely on the money with everything she's said. Mia Hamm was next to Chastain to give her reaction of the U.S.-France match, and you can see how much more comfortable and precise Chastain was in comparison to Hamm. Not to take anything from Hamm, but it seems to me like Chastain is capable of covering just about any sporting event, and I'd definitely prefer to hear her commentary when it comes to the Men's World Cup as opposed to some other guys that ESPN has thrown out there in the past (i.e. Eric Wynalda)

Prediction: Japan has one of the greatest players in the world in Homare Sawa and has pretty much the entire world rooting behind it following the devastating tsunami the country endured just a few months ago. The United States is in the finals for the third time in the six Women's World Cup events. The United States has Abby Wambach and she will be lethal on set plays. The U.S. also has an edge at goalkeeper where Hope Solo is second to none. Experience will also play a factor. The U.S. has finished third in the past two World Cups and this time they won't settle for anything less than first. U.S over Japan 2-1.

Women's World Cup, Germany goes Down, US Stays Alive

2011-07-11T09:11:00.000-07:00

For anyone that hasn't been watching this stuff, they don't know what they're missing. First you see the tiny but quick Japanese team beat a much more physically dominant German squad. You could tell that the Japanese players were giving their absolute all to just stay in the game and just as they were headed to penalty kicks, they got the break they finally needed with a goal in the second overtime period.

Abby Wambach, a former Florida Gator, heads in the game-tying goal.

And how about that U.S. win? Once again, women's soccer provides one of the greatest sports moments in American history. I jumped up and screamed as I was standing in front of my television watching Megan Rapinoe center the ball for an Abby Wambach header. I can honestly say that I haven't reacted that way for many sporting events, but beating Brazil and especially winning the way they did, made the U.S. victory one for the ages. You have to love all the hyperbole after the game, especially that of former national coach Tony DiCicco who said the game was a "celebration of the American human spirit." A bit of an exaggeration, sure. But you know what, it sounds kind of cool and made you feel happy to be on the American side.

Let's thank ABC and ESPN for promoting this sport in the States. I don't know where women's soccer was in 1995, but by 1999 it had at least gained a small foothold in the consciousness of sports fans. Now, women's soccer has gained at least as much foothold as women's gymnastics. Both sports get a ton of attention every four years when their sport's respective premier event takes place (the World Cup and the Summer Olympics), and in between there's the occasional coverage. Women's soccer has the additional advantage of being a big event in the Summer Olympics as well. I don't know how successful another women's soccer league will be, with the men's Major League Soccer struggling to capture a larger market, but as long as the powers that be continue to showcase the Women's World Cup, it's certain that the sport will continue to grow.

Today I was walking on my college campus where they're holding soccer camps for young kids. A group of 7 and 8 year old girls were engaged in a friendly competition when one group suddenly started to chant "USA! USA!" I smiled thinking about how the game was still in these girls' minds the next day.

Predictions: USA defeats France and Sweden defeats Japan in the two semifinal games, setting up a rematch from group play between the USA and Sweden.

One Year After "The Decision"

2011-07-08T14:36:00.000-07:00

Did LeBron James make the right decision by going to the Miami Heat? Admittedly, I watched The Decision last year and was in shock that he decided to go to the Miami Heat. I thought he would stay in Cleveland and try to bring that franchise its first ever championship, and Cleveland's first championship in a major sport since the Cleveland Browns won the 1964 NFL Championship. I actually gained respect for James after he made the announcement he'd be leaving Cleveland, because while Cleveland would've built monuments for him, he shunned that to play at a place where he could get one thing he wants more badly than anything else -- championships.

But back to the original question. Did he make the right decision? In some ways he did, and many other ways he did not.

How did he make the right decision? With Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh playing alongside James, the Heat immediately have an advantage over almost the entire league. Just this past year, they've shown that they're the class of the Eastern Conference. Plus, this was just their first year playing together, so next year the expectation is nothing short of a championship. This year was more of an experiment, and it proved to be a pretty successful experiment up until the end. Wade, Bosh, and James still have many years ahead of them and if they can pull it out next year, there's no reason to believe that they can't win 2 or 3 more championships together.

Plus, I don't think the trio was thinking about this, but with the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement, it's going to be much more difficult for teams to stock up on superstars. It may very well be that the Big Three will remain a unique situation in the NBA. To the Big Three's defense, and more specifically to James, I don't see why they were dragged through the mud for not being competitors and winning championships the hard way. Very similar things happened when the Lakers teamed up Kobe, Shaq, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton. And didn't the Celtics unite Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett for a run at a championship?

BUT, maybe it's just me, I'm of the opinion that James winning just one championship in Cleveland would've been so much sweeter than if he ends up winning 3 or 4 in Miami with Bosh and Wade. Look, I know every great player needs another great player, or at least a couple of good players, to win a championship (Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Kobe and Gasol and Odom, the Celtics triumvirate, Nowitzki and Kidd and Terry, Duncan and Ginobili and Parker, Hamilton and Billups and Prince and Wallace, and even Wade and a still very good Shaq), and there's no reason why James couldn't have demanded another great player join him in Cleveland. How about if Billups and Carmelo Anthony had joined him this year had he stayed in Cleveland? Or what if Deron Williams had joined him in Cleveland? He could have done this and been the MAN in Cleveland. Now, he's just second string to D-Wade.

And there's another team he could've gone to where I believe he would have won a championship this year. The Chicago Bulls. If James had gone to Chicago, he would've instantly become the man, and become the second coming of Michael Jordan. People were saying that he would've forever been in Jordan's shadow. Seriously? Is Kobe Bryant in Jerry West's and Magic Johnson's shadow? Was Shaquille O'Neal in Kareem Abdul Jabbar's shadow? NO. So don't give me that lame excuse. With Derrick Rose running the floor, he and James would've created an unstoppable force. Throw in Luol Deng as a relief man for James and two very good centers / power forwards in Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, and I don't see anyone competing with them. The Bulls were all set with Rose, Boozer, Noah, and Deng, and they were recruiting James to join them. The Bulls had the best regular-season record in the NBA without James, imagine what they could've done with him. And talk about a roster built for the future. All those guys are younger than 30.

In the end James' decision to go to Miami will be measured by the number of championships he wins. It would've been slightly different had he gone to Chicago, where the hype the Big Three generated this season for the Heat would not have been a factor in Chicago. Had he stayed in Cleveland, he would not have been measured by the number of championships he won, but by his sheer effort, even if it seemed unreachable, to take his team and its city to heights it has not seen in nearly 50 years. How many championships can quantify how much he meant to one city? It's hard to say, but I don't think James could ever win enough championships compared to what he could have meant to Cleveland.

I'm A Married Man and So Are Athletes

2011-07-05T15:27:00.000-07:00

I got married this weekend. It was one of the best days of my life being around friends and family. I'll admit, I even cried. But enough of the sappy stuff. In honor of my wedding this Fourth of July weekend, I've ranked athlete marriages based on how they turned out. Using basketball terminology, you should have a pretty good idea of how the marriage has played out, and which sportsman I most want my marriage to be like. The rankings are from least desirable to most desirable outcome:

Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren (basketball equivalent of playing for the Los Angeles Clippers your entire career, and in the last play of your career you dunk in the wrong basket to give the Lakers a last-second win only to break your leg while coming down) Bad things man. This had all the makings of a fairy-tale wedding. Tiger married a beautiful Swedish woman who gave him beautiful kids and was there for some of his biggest victories. But while Tiger was conquering the courses, he was also conquering and re-conquering a countless number of women. Then one Thanksgiving Day....Elin with a golf club....shatters the back of an SUV.....which crashed into a tree.....cops come and find Tiger half-dazed in the driver's seat......what happened?.....cheating....pornstars...text messages......the cover of every single gossip magazine.....divorce.....huge alimony....and Tiger's career has not been the same since.

Brandon Marshall and Michi Nogami-Marshall (basketball equivalent of playing for the Los Angeles Clippers your entire career except for your last year when you join a title contender and reach the Finals. You get fouled attempting a three-point shot in Game 7 with 0.01 seconds left and your team down by 1. You miss all three free-throw shots and lose the championship to the Los Angeles Clippers and their new coach Phil Jackson.) Michi stabbed Brandon Marshall in the abdomen. She stabbed her husband! Maybe this is worse than the whole Tiger ordeal, because this could have been murder, but Marshall survived and the whole world won't find out exactly what drove this woman to a raging fit. Maybe Michi was acting in self-defense, who knows.......I'm getting nauseous just writing about this..........

Dwyane Wade and the former Siohvaughn Wade (basketball equivalent of being the tallest guy on the court and you get picked first during the pick-up games with the expectation that you're good because you're a tall guy on a basketball court, only then you actually begin to play and everyone finds out you're really not that good, in fact, you're the worst player on the team. Then you get self-conscious and you start thinking how you were the first pick and you really shouldn't have been and some guy six inches shorter than you who thinks he's Michael Jordan is always stealing the ball from you and then your teammates begin to get mad and you can tell because they're shaking their heads in your direction. You lose the game when the other team scores on a fast break when your attempted dunk bounces off the back of the rim to midcourt where the MJ wannabe jumps for the ball and passes to his 5'6" friend for the winning layup.) Such is the case with Dwyane Wade and his high school sweetheart. It seemed like a dream marriage. You know, NBA Superstar marries his high school love and now they've made it this far and they're famous and rich and have the whole world in front of them. Except that Dwyane Wade is now rich and famous. He can get any girl he wants, including one Gabrielle Union. Siovaughn alleges he gave her an STD. He says she smashed his MVP trophy with a baseball bat. She says he hasn't seen his kids in months. He says she was trying to put curses on him. She says he gave Gabrielle Union more and bigger gifts than he gave to his own kids. He says she cheated on him first with some dude. She says he hosted elaborate sex and marijuana parties. The moral of the story? I'm not sure, but I want to take a shower now.

David and Victoria Beckham (basketball equivalent of being Patrick Ewing. You're one of the greatest players ever. You won a national championship at Georgetown, two gold medals in the Olympics, and were voted one of the greatest 50 players in NBA history. You are the first pick in the NBA Draft to the New York Knicks waiting to capitalize on your basketball talents and to market your brand to the biggest market in the world. You win Rookie of the Year in 1986 and are named an All-Star 11 times. You are one of the most dominant and complete centers of your era. But you came around in Michael Jordan's era. You can't beat the Bulls to reach the Finals even when you have them down 2-0 in 1993. Finally you reach the Finals in 1994, Jordan is retired, and your Knicks are up 3-2 in the Finals against the Houston Rockets. You lose two very close games in Games 6 and 7 and another of your contemporaries, Hakeem Olajuwon, is seen as your superior because you couldn't win that elusive championship. All in all though, you're one of the greatest, but you came up just short). I love the Beckhams. They have their issues, sure. But what couple doesn't? She's a bit controlling and possessive, she needs to approve what he wears, she spends a fortune on clothes and things like that, but you know what? So do you. You're also always receiving kidnapping threats and even attempts on your life that briefly forced you to move to Los Angeles. And you David allegedly had an affair that made for huge tabloid headlines and embarrassed your wife. You denied all allegations, but if such was the case then all seems forgiven. They are English royalty without having to be formal stiffs. They were invited to Will and Kate's wedding, are jointly one of the 20 richest people in Britain, and continue to do some amazing charitable work. When they speak, just about everyone listens. They even named a pretty cool movie in David's name.

Phil and Amy Mickelson (basketball equivalent of being Michael Jordan. You're the greatest ever. You want to score the winning jump shot in the 1982 national championship against Patrick Ewing's Georgetown squad? OK. You want to win six championships and five MVP's? OK. You want to massively dunk on Ewing? OK. You want to win the dunk contest against Dominique Wilkins? OK. You want to make sure that Ewing, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, John Stockton, and Reggie Miller never win any championships? OK. You want to personally keep Isiah Thomas off the 1992 Dream Team because you hate him so much? OK. You want to be the biggest, baddest, mothalova on the court? OK. You want to brand the most popular sneaker the world has ever seen? OK. You want people to laugh when they compare LeBron James to you? OK. You want to give the worst Hall of Fame induction speech ever and still be respected and admired? OK. You want to own your own basketball team? OK. You want to be known as one of the greatest owners and general managers ever? Um....I think I'm getting ahead of myself) Here's a man who loves his wife so much and a woman who loves her husband so much. Before Amy Mickelson had cancer, she was a devoted wife to Phil sticking with him even as he was dogged as a talented but underachieving golfing talent. She was always with him on the tour as were his kids. He never once strayed from her side when he could've easily done the Tiger and hopped from bed to bed. Then Amy was diagnosed with cancer and what does Mickelson do? He stops playing golf to be with her. Then he wins the 2010 Master's, his fourth career major championship, less than one year after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer. What does he do? With tears in his eyes he walks up to her and gives her one big embrace. It's the greatest moment you can hope ever hope to see.....until........

Eddie and Doris Robinson (basketball equivalent of being Jason McElwain. You're diagnosed with autism, you're a team manager and you've never played a single minute of a single game for your high school basketball team. Your coach let's you play in the final minutes of the final game of the regular season because your team is up by 20. You're basically the 13th guy on the bench, and there are only 12 spots. You're not Michael Jordan, but you play like him for 4 magical minutes. You score 20 points in 4 minutes and finish as the game's high scorer. It's great to be Michael Jordan, but it's even better to play like him when you're told that it's impossible. You inspire thousands not because you're a basketball player, but because you're just a kid defying all the odds stacked against you). Coach Eddie Robinson of Grambling State would walk hand-in-hand with his wife, Doris, before every football practice so his players could see how a man should love a woman. Even in the midst of football season, he made it a point to eat lunch and dinner with his wife every day. He loved her more than anything and they stayed married for more than 65 years until Coach's passing in 2007. With a woman like that to love, it is no wonder Robinson is the all-time winningest football coach in Division I-AA history with 408 wins. That's what I want my marriage to look like.