Sports Page Atlanta

Have a Safe and Happy Fourth of July!

T Kyle King — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:28 -0700

Happy Independence Day!

Go ‘Dawgs!

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 7/3

yondaime4 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:12:22 -0700

Gwinnett 0, Norfolk 5

J. Schafer 0-3 K
S. Marek 1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K

So the Gwinnett Braves just can't muster any offense without Brooks Conrad. He must have been holding them afloat. Jordan Schafer has fallen off a bit and I wonder if he is still not fully healthy, or just not as good as we thought he was. I didn't know Stephen Marek had been promoted, but after some serious struggles in Mississippi early this season he calmed down a bit in his last few outings.

Mississippi 3, West Tenn 4

M. Young 2-4 RBI
C. Rodriguez 2-4 RBI

No Frederick Freeman or Jason Heyward yet in this game. I am sure we will see them tomorrow. I am also a little disappointed that with all the shuffling going on Matt Young didn't get the call up to Gwinnett. The guy has paid his dues and has been very solid for two season now in AA. Give the guy a chance.

Salem 10, Myrtle Beach 0

L. Sumoza 2-4 K
G. Rodriguez 1-3 K

Maybe the Pelican's really felt the hole that losing both Heyward and Freeman left in their lineup. The two new guys, Gerrardo Rodriguez and Luis Sumoza, appeared to handle it well in their first game at least. Sumoza is a guy we need to keep our eye on. He has just started to do it, but I would love to see him really tap into the wealth of tools he has.

Bowling Green 2, Rome 0

JJ Hoover 7IP 4H 1R 1BB 8K

Wow, another shutout? Hoover has just been getting better and better and he is making a case for himself being our top pitching prospect when the season is done. That is a race which is wide open at the moment and JJ Hoover has been the most consistent pitcher the Braves have run out there (apologies to Scott Diamond who has been solid and consistent as well).Also RSF did not get the promotion to Rome.

Princeton 3, Danville 2

RSF 2-4 HR(4)
J. Teheran 7IP 8H 2R 1BB 5K

You have to imagine that Teheran was incredibly efficient in this game to have been allowed to pitch 7 innings. He has been pretty impressive so far this season and if he keeps this up he might be the guy at year's end. I don't really understand why RSF didn't get the call. He is hitting a smooth .538 right now. Granted it is only 10 games, but most people don't usually do that through 10 games even when they are hot.

GCL Braves 2, GCL Yankees 5

K. Rose 3-4 RBI
E. Mejia 1-2 BB, K

Finally, one of my favorite players from last season gets back on the field. Ernesto Meji hit 73 XBH last season for Myrtle Beach but has been on the DL all season after what I think was a leg injury of some sort? (Little help on that one if anyone knows). Anyways, he doesn't walk a ton and he strikes out a lot, but the guy hits everywhere he goes. He is 24 at this point so he needs to get back playing if he wants to make an impact in the organization. I could see him having some useful major league seasons but not making any lasting impact unless he really turns around his plate discipline.

Game 79 Recap: Braves 9, Nationals 8

gondeee — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:41:04 -0700

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

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That ended up being a close game, as the Braves closer Rafael Soriano battled some wildness in the ninth inning to get the save after allowing 2 runs to score. But thanks to the newest Braves player, Brooks Conrad, Atlanta had a 3-run lead going into the ninth.

Starting pitcher Kenshin Kawakami struggled through his four-plus innings while throwing a lot of pitches, and was ultimately unable to get out of the fifth inning. Every time Kawa would give up a run or runs, the Braves would come back the next inning and tie it up. The Nats scored 1 in the first, we came back and tied it in the second. They score 2 in the second, we score two in the third. They score 1 in the third, and we finally take the lead in the fourth.

The Nationals tied it in the fifth as Kawakami exited the game. The bullpen kept it close and that allowed pinch-hitter Brooks Conrad to slug a three-run homerun to right field in his first at-bat as a member of the Braves. It was Conrad's first major league homerun. Washington added another run in the bottom of the seventh, but Atlanta got it right back in the eighth.

Nate McLouth was back in the lineup, and looked a little slow in the batters box and in the field, but did end up with a hit late in the game. Martin Prado stays hot with 3 hits on the night, and Chipper, McCann, Escobar, and Diaz all had 2 hits a piece.

Should I even harp on the Lilburn Flash-in-the-Pan? He was 0-for-4 with a strikeout and 6 men left on base, and was again pinch-hit for in a critical situation late in the game.

Mike Gonzalez struck out the side in the eighth and was hopping off the mound after each K, hopping almost half way to the third base line -- he is a funny guy. That reminds me somewhat of Mitch Williams, the closer for the Phillies several years ago, who is now an analyst for the MLB network.

Hey! This is now a 5-game winning streak. Let's keep it going tomorrow afternoon.

Final - 7.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Atlanta Braves	0	1	2	2	0	0	3	1	0	9	14	1
Washington Nationals	1	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	2	8	8	1
WP: Boone Logan (1 - 0) SV: Rafael Soriano (8) LP: Jesus Colome (1 - 1)

Complete Coverage >

Atlanta Braves Plate Discipline

17843 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:30:14 -0700

Much has been said about the Braves' inability to score runs this season to back up what has been one of the best pitching staffs in baseball this season; The Braves rank 23rd in baseball in runs scored, but a stellar 5th in runs allowed and the best FIP of any staff in baseball. Much of the blame for their offensive troubles can be placed on an inability to hit for power (6th worst isolated power in baseball).Lost in this doom and gloom about the offense has been a surprisingly good season for the Braves in the plate discipline department; they are doing a very solid job at walking and avoiding strikeouts with the major's 7th best BB/K ratio, right behind offensive powerhouses like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays.

Below is a graph showing a breakdown of each batter's performance in the batter's box this season by breaking data down based on whether a pitch was in or out of the strike zone, swung on or watched, and hit or missed. Hopefully we can discover what has made certain hitters contribute positively or negatively towards the Braves's solid plate discipline this season. (click picture to see a larger view)

Z-Contact: Contact made on balls in the strike zone

Z-Whiff: Swinging strikes on balls in the strike zone

Called Strikes/Balls: Nothing complicated here

O-Whiff: Swinging strikes on balls outside the zone

O-Contact: Contact made on balls outside the strike zone

These six categories can be split into two groups - positive and negative - based on what the hitter should've done; ie, balls outside the zone should be taken, balls in the zone should be swung at, etc. Obviously this is not air tight, for example a hitter will take a pitch if the pitcher has shown wildness, or as the lead-off man, or if a runner on is stealing, but in a general sense it works. Z-Contact, Balls, and Z-Whiff can be classed as positive decisions, despite Z-Whiff being a negative outcome, and O-Contact, O-Whiff, and Called Strikes can be classed as negative decisions.

Below is a chart showing the data, with the addition of columns for overall Whiff (swinging strike percentage), Ball/Called Strike ratio, Quality of Swing ratio (Z-Contact+Z-Whiff/O-Contact+O-Whiff), and "Positive" and "Negative" decisions.

(Click to see a larger view)

A sortable spreadsheet is available.

We can take a number of observations from the data presented.

1. Jeff Francoeur sees the fewest number of balls on the team with less than a third of the pitches he sees resulting in balls. Chipper is unsurprisingly the team leader in balls seen with 45%.

2. Using ball/called strike ratio to see what hitters make the best decisions on pitches to take, we find strange bedfellows at the top in Chipper and Francoeur. The worst in this regard are our backup infielders, Prado and Infante who take an awful lot of called strikes. To their credit, they whiff less than anyone else on the team.

3. Your whiff leaders are unsurprising - Schafer, Diaz, Ross, and Francoeur all have a reputation for swinging and missing.

4. Using Quality of Swing we can find out which batters are swinging at the best pitches, assuming that balls are more difficult to hit than strikes. Greg Norton comes out looking the best here, swinging at nearly 5 strikes for every ball he swings at. The presence of Chipper at the top is unsurprising. At the bottom of the list is "professional hitter" Garret Anderson and free-swingers Diaz, Francoeur, and Schafer.

5. Using the "positive" and "negative" categories that I created, Chipper and Norton come out looking very good, as neither swings much outside the zone nor do they take many called strikes. Prado comes out at the bottom, which is a product of his taking a lot of called strikes. There are two explanations for this; either his high contact rate is a product of him only swinging at pitches he can hit, which means he will take a lot of pitches in the zone, or he is simply not swinging enough at balls in the zone because he isn't recognizing that they are strikes. His poor Quality of Swing ratio may hint towards the latter explanation as he is below average at swinging at good pitches.

No Grade Inflation Here: Puck Daddy Rates Free Agent Frenzy

The Falconer — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:48:47 -0700

It's a good think PuckDaddy doesn't teach in a real school because he'd have of students out the door whining about their grades. Here's his tally after the first two days of free agency

A-

NY Rangers
Tampa Bay
Chicago
Vancouver

B+

Atlanta
Carolina
NY Islanders
Washington
Anaheim
Columbus
Minnesota

Boston
Montreal
Pittsburgh
LA Kings

B-

Florida
Calgary
Dallas
Edmonton
Nashville
St. Louis

C+

NJ Devils
Toronto

Philadelphia
Colorado
Phoenix
San Jose

C-

Ottawa

2009 NHL Free Agency: Nik Antropov Analysis

The Falconer — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:12:52 -0700

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

2 months ago: New York Rangers' Nik Antropov (90) has his shot stopped by Washington Capitals' goaile Simeon Varlamov (40) while being covered by Capitals' John Erskine (4) during the second period of game two of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals NHL playoff hockey in Washington, Saturday, April 18, 2009. New York won 1-0.(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

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The Atlanta Thrashers took a major step towards competing for a playoff berth in the last last two days with the addition of the Nik Antropov and the exchange of Pavel Kubina for Garnet Exelby. Like any player, Antropov brings with him a number of positives and negatives. I'll review both aspects--with some stats of course.

Antropov's Upside

At the 2009 NHL Draft the Thrashers were pleased to add size to their prospect pool and that trend has carried over to the NHL roster. With the Kubina trade and the signing of Antropov (who essentially takes the roster spot vacated by 5'9" Eric Perrin) the team has increased the number of players over 6'2".

Size alone will not win many NHL games, but size coupled with skill can. Last season Kovalchuk finished the year playing with Todd White and Bryan Little. Both are skilled hockey players, but both are too small to knock a defenseman off the puck. At 6'6", Nik Antropov can certainly jar loose some pucks in the corner and along the wall. If Antropov can win those puck battles on the RW side of the ice and make a zip pass to Kovalchuk --Ilya might be able to give Ovechkin a run for the leading goal scorer title next season.

As I noted in the Chris Thorburn piece yesterday, Kovalchuk was on the ice for about 70 Even Strength Goals Against (too many). One source of Kovy's poor ES Plus/Minus is that his line tends to be one-and-done in the offensive zone. If the Kovalchuk line don't score off the rush then the opposition regroups and flies down to the Atlanta defensive zone. Kovalchuk's line seldom spends much time burning up the clock with continuous offensive zone pressure. The Kovy line could improve their Goal Differential by simply playing more in the good end of the ice--even if they don't increase their Goals For, it would reduce their Goals Against.

One way to measure pressure is to look at whether a line outshoots the opposition or at least attempts more shots than the opposition (aka Corsi Number). I'm happy to report that Antropov (and Kubina) had positive numbers in both the 2008 and 2009 seasons in terms of the Net Shots and Net Shots Attempted categories. That is a genuine plus in an area of need for the Thrashers.

Another plus with this signing is chemistry. Antropov and Kovalchuk have played a handful of games together in Russia. Sometimes UFA just don't work out. Jason Williams looked like a smart addition last summer but he had zero chemistry with Kovalchuk on the ice. Kovy is not always easy to play with because his "dynamic" aspect also makes him unpredictable. Kovy also really likes having the puck, but to his credit he really worked on passing during the first half of last season (to the extent that he was passing up open shooting chances).

Cost/Benefit Analysis: The Thrashers avoided paying some veteran likely to experience an age related crash. The four year deal covers Antropov's age 29, 30, 31, 32 seasons. Typically NHL players hit their peak between 25-30 and then slowly fade until a performance crash. That crash usually comes after age 33 and for Hall of Fame level player it might not come until their late 30s even early 40s.

The salary cap hit is a touch over $4 million per season. That's fair value on the UFA market these days. You're not going to win a Stanley Cup without some bargains on your roster, but it is very hard to find bargains in free agency unless you gamble on players who have a checkered past or players who might be undervalued because they played a smaller role on a quality team.

(More stats and analysis after the jump)

Antropov's Usage History

Toronto really didn't entrust Antropov with top six minutes until he turned 25. He is not a great PP guy and his PP TOI shows that the Toronto recognized that and didn't give him loads of minutes. His SH minutes have really bounced around. The last two seasons Antropov ranked 1st (2009) and 3rd (2008) among Toronto forwards in terms of SH GAA. That's a good sign, although the TOR PK was just as bad as the Thrashers last year.

Season	Age	ES TOI per Game	PP TOI per Game	SH TOI per Game	Total TOI per Game	ES TOI Rank	PP TOI Rank	SH TOI Rank	Total TOI Rank	Games Played
2000	19	11.41	1.20	0.19	12.80	40%	19%	DNQ	29%	66
2001	20	9.48	0.52	0.03	10.03	20%	01%	DNQ	14%	52
2002	21	8.33	0.60	0.01	8.95	DNQ	DNQ	DNQ	DNQ	11
2003	22	11.37	2.13	1.50	15.00	39%	34%	37%	48%	72
2004	23	11.88	1.67	1.75	15.30	44%	30%	40%	49%	62
2006	25	11.64	1.47	2.45	15.57	67%	21%	54%	55%	57
2007	26	13.68	2.43	0.49	16.59	85%	39%	DNQ	63%	57
2008	27	14.00	3.60	2.51	20.11	82%	67%	70%	92%	72
2009	28	13.35	2.95	0.89	17.19	71%	56%	15%	72%	81

Antropov's Scoring Efficiency History

The table below shows that Antropov has been shrinkingly consistent in terms of his Even Strength Scoring Efficiency since he his age 22 season. On other hand his Power Play Scoring Efficiency has been all over the map--ranging from excellent (2001, 2003) to average (2008, 2009) to poor (2004, 2006, 2007, 2001).

One point about his bad -14 in the plus/minus last point. Antropov was the victim of some brutal goaltending last season. The goalies posted a very weak .870 SV% when he was on the ice at ES. Most analysts think that skaters have only a very small effect on the goalie SV%--a few bad luck goals can skew things. That's why Corsi is a better predictor of future Goal Differential than past Plus/Minus.

Season	Age	ES Scoring Rate per Hour	PP Scoring Rate per Hour	Total Scoring Rate per Hour	ES Scoring Rate Rank	PP Scoring Rate Rank	Total Scoring Rate Rank	Games Played	Plus Minus	GVT (Value Over Replacement Player)
2000	19	2.23	1.51	2.13	81%	10%	67%	66	+14	+7.6
2001	20	1.70	6.62	1.96	52%	96%	57%	52	+5	+3.3
2002	21	1.31	0.00	1.22	DNQ	DNQ	DNQ	11	-1	-0.1
2003	22	2.27	5.09	2.50	87%	85%	84%	72	+11	+10.4
2004	23	2.20	1.74	1.96	86%	13%	66%	62	+7	+6.5
2006	25	2.35	2.15	2.10	81%	13%	56%	57	+13	+7.4
2007	26	2.28	2.28	2.21	81%	19%	63%	54	+8	+6.9
2008	27	2.32	3.71	2.32	90%	51%	77%	72	+10	+14.2
2009	28	2.27	4.27	2.54	82%	57%	80%	81	-14	+8.7

Downside Concerns

Just as there is an upside there are some potential downsides as well. A few years ago Antropov dealt with serious injury problems that kept him out of the line up for extended stretches. The last few years the Thrashers have had remarkably few injuries to their skaters (goal is another story). Given Antropov's injury profile, having depth players on the bench or in Chicago could be important.

Antropov is clearly a top six talent but he's not an elite talent who can carry the scoring burden on his own. The good news is that Atlanta had the 9th best offense last season--they don't need him to carry the load--they just need him in complimentary role, something he is well suited for.

One complaint by Toronto fans is that he is inconsistent. He has a tendency to run hot and cold.

One draw back of getting bigger with Kubina and Antropov is that neither player is especially fast. Last year the one area where the Thrashers had an edge on the opposition was speed. They were small but fast. With these two additions the Thrashers gain in the size department but give back some of their edge in team speed. Of course, if Ilya has a breakaway it really doesn't matter how far behind him Nik Antropov is.

Another concern is that while both Antropov and Kubina have been regulars on the PK during their careers, neither has been on the lead PK group. On the other hand, Antropov in particular posted strong PK numbers on a weak PK unit the last two years. Kubina was middle of the pack among Toronto D in 2009, but he was #1 SH Defenseman in 2008. Both will almost certainly see more SH minutes in Atlanta, how they handle a larger PK role will be very important.

By all accounts Antropov is not good at faceoffs. I'm much less worried about this than most because faceoff win % is the most over-rated stat in hockey. It simply does not correlate well with team wins. Having said that, there are some key moments like the last two minutes of a game where faceoffs become more important. For that reason Antropov might be better suited to RW.

Conclusion

The Thrashers needed size in their top six. Antropov appears to be an excellant fit bringing size and skill to that top line. His contributions on special teams are less clear, but he has potential to help in these areas as well.

Open Thread 7/3: Braves at Natinals

gondeee — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:09:22 -0700

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

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Let's see if we can beat the worst team in baseball. I feel confident with us coming off of a 3-game sweep of the Phils, but the Nationals always play us tough.

Kelly Johnson was placed on the DL with right wrist tendinitis, which could explain some of his hitting problems. Brooks Conrad was called up to replace him.

Tonight's game will also tell us if Kenshin Kawakami is all right after getting hit in the neck last week.

Current Series

3 game series vs Nationals @ Nationals Park

Atlanta Braves Talking Chop @ Washington Nationals Federal Baseball Friday, Jul 3, 2009, 6:35 PM EDT Nationals Park Kenshin Kawakami vs Ross Detwiler Mostly sunny. Game time temperature around 80. Complete Coverage >
Sat 07/04		1:05 PM EDT
Sun 07/05		1:35 PM EDT

Happy 4th of July

Paul Westerdawg — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:01:00 -0700

On behalf of Quinton, Dawgnoxious and myself, I want to salute the men and women serving the country this Fourth of July. Seen above are 1st Lt Jason Gwinn (Class of '00), 2nd Lt Jonathan Rue (Class of '04). Rue is the one with the 'stache. He allegedly is a reader of the site, and for that we owe him a second thank you.

They are standing on a MRAP (mine resistant, ambush protected vehicle) before going on a patrol. You can click on the picture to enlarge and get a wallpaper sized version. The photo was sent in by Matt B.

Thanks fellas,

The Georgia Sports Blog Team

Jason Krog Returns to Thrashers?

The Falconer — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:50:49 -0700

Jason Krog Returns to Thrashers?

He just showed upon the NHL.com roster, which has been a precursor to official announcements in the past. He could be a Chicago depth guy or perhaps a PK specialist with the NHL club.

DOB says something is afoot

Rhyno18 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:47:56 -0700

DOB says something is afoot

An hour long meeting between Bobby and Frank, eh? I don't think it would have taken then an hour to decide to DL KJ and call up Conrad.

DOB's speculation is that Vazquez could be dealt(for an impact bat we would control for longer than just this year), or that Yunel is close to being moved.

Braves put Johnson on DL with tendinitis

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:32:13 -0700

Washington, D.C.- The Braves put struggling second baseman Kelly Johnson on the disabled list Friday with tendinitis in his right wrist and called up Brooks Conrad from Class AAA Gwinnett.

Conrad's HR key as Braves edge Nationals

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:25:39 -0700

WASHINGTON - Brooks Conrad didn't know any better.

Free Form Friday. Waiting For September Edition.

MaconDawg — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:30:12 -0700

July is the horse latitudes of the college football offseason. National Signing Day, spring practices and the NFL Draft all push a little wind into the sails of a football fan. But there's nothing like that in July. The air is dead still. There's no momentum. And if you're Nick Saban you have to decide whether you're going to throw Terrance Cody over the side of the boat to lighten the load, or feed him to your starving crew. It's a tough choice.

In the meantime, a college football fan can only look for other means of sporting amusement.

For example, there's always baseball. Speaking of which, can someone please explain to me how the Atlanta Braves are only 2 games out of the lead in the N.L. East? Every time I watch them they're either trying to end a losing streak or gacking one up to begin a new streak. Then either the Phillies, Marlins or Mets forget how to play baseball for a week, and the Bravos are right back in it. Watching someone try to take control of that division is like watching a chimp try to open a walnut with knitting needles.

And then there's soccer. Of course the United States' team just completed an exciting run in the Confederations Cup, which I understand to be a reasonably big deal in the world of soccer, though not as big a deal as the World Cup. I think it's sort of the MAC Championship Game of international futbol. Which I follow about as closely as the price of guava futures on the Curacao Commodities Exchange. Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of the United States being competitive in international soccer. But I've learned from experience that the U.S. National soccer team is the organized sporting equivalent of your ne'er-do-well cousin Walter. Everytime you think he's going to get it together, he shows up on your doorstep with four days of stubble after a three day drunk, a truly sad state of affairs for a guy with a Ph.D. from M.I.T. I'm curbing my enthusiasm regarding the futbol for the moment.

If, like our fearless leader, you're looking to unwind with a good book, I'd recommend Bill Heavey's If You Didn't Bring Jerky, What Did I Just Eat? Heavey is a longtime columnist for Field & Stream whose wit and self-deprecating style should resonate with all outdoors enthusiasts who possess more zeal than skill. In other words, most of us.

Of course, you could also follow football recruiting through the summer. I'll be doing a good bit of that next week, as I try to catch up on the TMI previews of some of our newest commitments for the class of 2010. If anybody has any requests, I'd certainly be willing to listen.

In the meantime, August cannot get here soon enough. Unfortunately, as Railroad Earth points out, we've still got a long way to go:

Go 'Dawgs!!!

Norfolk blanks Gwinnett Braves 5-0

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:00:23 -0700

Norfolk pitcher Chris Tillman scattered four hits as the Tides defeated Gwinnett 5-0 on Friday night.

Kelly Johnson to the DL

Rhyno18 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:10:44 -0700

Kelly Johnson to the DL

I knew last night Brooks Conrad was going up to Atlanta. Now we know who's spot he's taking.

Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll

gondeee — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:01:46 -0700

If it's Friday, then it's the Atlanta Braves fan confidence poll. This poll and therefore your confidence level should encompasses several areas of the team. These areas include, but are not limited to, the team’s ownership, current management, talent, minor-league system, and general playing ability on the field. The poll will stay open for 48 hours, and then the results will be posted and graphed against the previous weeks.

An Atlanta Falcon Discussion: Projecting Tony Gonzalez

Dave the Falconer — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:00:21 -0700

More photos » by John Amis - AP

"That's right," Tony Gonzalez said. "I'm going to catch 40,000 passes next year." (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Yeah, we're back to the biggest free agent acquisition of the off-season. You wanna fight about it?

You're probably familiar with the format by now, but for some of our newer readers and people who might comment on this story for the first time ever--don't be shy, folks!--this is basically a projection thread. You'll be figuring out how many catches Tony Gonzalez is going to get in the year ahead at tight end, how many touchdowns, yards per catch, yards after the catch, yards after the end of the world, and so forth. We'll be looking for some kind of general consensus about the type of player he'll be and his impact on the 2009 Atlanta Falcons, so this one relies heavily on all of you weighing in.

Get it going, ladies and gentlemen.

Game 78 Recap: Phillies 2, Braves 5... OMG a sweep!

gondeee — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:57:02 -0700

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez, left, and Philadelphia Phillies Jayson Werth look for the umpire's call after Werth tried to score from third on a wild pitch in the eighth inning of a baseball game in Atlanta, Thursday July 2, 2009. Werth was out and Atlanta won 5-2.

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I can't believe we actually swept the Phillies. Our little Braves.

Thursday night's game was a typical Javier Vazquez start -- he doesn't give up a lot of runs, and the Braves don't score a lot of runs for him. Only this time, we actually came back to win the game.

It wasn't the top of the lineup like it had been in the previous two games, tonight the offense came from the bottom of the lineup and Matt Diaz and Casey Kotchman. They had 5 hits between them, including a key double by Diaz in the decisive 3-run eighth inning.

After Diaz came through with the tie-breaking RBI, Garret Anderson pinch-hit for the helpless (0-for-3, 2 SO, 3 LOB) Jeff Francoeur and added two insurance runs with his 5th homerun of the season.

Brian McCann, who scored the wining run in the eighth, helped save the Braves from falling behind in the top inning by hustling back to the wall on a wild pitch and then twirling and throwing a bullet to Mike Gonzalez who sacrificed his body to tag out the runner attempting to score. The opposing manager put it best:

"That's momentum," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "They stopped us. ... That turns the whole game, the whole energy, the brightness of it. They're going back in the dugout thinking, 'Man, we dodged a bullet there. Let's go get 'em now. Things liven up.'"

Diaz now has his average up to .299, and with Anderson at a respectable .287, the .248 with no power hitting Francoeur might find himself Kelly Johnsoned out of an everyday role. Diaz and Anderson aren't names that blow your socks off, but either of them are better at the plate than Francoeur.

"If we keep playing with the same errorless baseball and the great pitching and timely hitting, this team's going to be tough to beat," McCann said.

Timely hitting, then Francoeur need not be in the lineup.

But enough about the negative, let's enjoy this win and enjoy this sweep, and let's hope the team doesn't let up when they play the Nationals this weekend.

Final - 7.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	8	0
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	X	5	10	1
WP: Mike Gonzalez (3 - 0) SV: Rafael Soriano (7) LP: Ryan Madson (2 - 4)

Complete Coverage >

Friday Morning Dawg Bites

T Kyle King — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:23:57 -0700

I generally have eschewed "link dump" posts in recent months, but there was enough stuff going on in the blogosphere that I thought it warranted taking up a few moments of your time to hit some of the highlights . . . although, if you’re looking for the short version, you may want to read the first and last bullet points and skip the rest:

Rarely will a sports fan receive a more encouraging endorsement than this. I hope to have an update on that effort in the near future. Stay tuned, and G.A.T.A.

If you want to feel better about the Oklahoma State game, Dr. Saturday has the preview for you.

Speaking of Dr. Saturday, I have a brief bit of good news for Brian Cook in response to this recent post. However little he may think of SB Nation, Brian will be relieved to learn that the Sunday Morning Quarterback content didn’t go anywhere.

Is Damon Evans to blame for the decline of Bulldog athletics? I don’t think that’s a fair criticism of our athletic director, whose status as a Georgia alumnus and former football player gives him good reasons for caring about more than just the financial bottom line. A lot of factors go into those numbers, including the collapse of Georgia men’s basketball under Dennis Felton (a situation Evans has gone to great lengths to remedy), rough seasons for otherwise successful coaches David Perno in 2007 and Andy Landers last year, the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers each claiming two national championships in football in the last six years, the resurgence of Bayou Bengal baseball, and the elevation of Gator men’s basketball. This is the kind of thing where critics need to name names; if there’s a sport in which Georgia is underperforming to a degree that a head coach (as opposed to, say, a defensive coordinator) needs to be let go, tell me the sport, the head coach, and the reasons why. I’m not saying such coaches don’t exist, but, if they do, that’s where the discussion needs to be focused.

I’m not going to lie to you; I don’t care the first thing about cycling. Many sports fans do, however, and, since a loyal Dawg Sports reader e-mailed me about a series of Tour de France preview articles, I thought I’d direct you toward them. Maize ‘n’ Brew Dave, by contrast, sent me a link to something that was more up my alley.

I am pleased to report that Robert Dean Lurie, an old friend of mine from college, has entered the blogosphere (albeit not in a sports-related capacity). Back in the days when Rob was referring to me as "the most dangerous man on campus," the only column of mine The Red and Black refused to run during my days as the University of Georgia student newspaper’s token conservative controversialist was one about Rob’s music. Incidentally, his first book recently was released and I plan to spend the next week reading it, for reasons to which I will get anon.

Did the old bowl system qualify as "the bad old days"? Not to anyone who enjoys competitive games to settle national championships, it didn’t. Senator Blutarsky chimes in, as well.

You know, I know, and the American people know that there have been times in the last six months that I have been mailing it in here at Dawg Sports. Lately, I’ve been testy, irritable, and ill-humored. This is due in large part to the fact that I haven’t taken back-to-back business days off from work for any reason other than illness in two years, and it shows. Consequently, I am pleased to report that I’ll be taking next week off to spend some time with my family, read a good book, and unwind a little. While I do not anticipate posting anything next week, MaconDawg will be here, as always, and several regular commenters graciously have agreed to take up the slack, so you’ll get to hear a few new voices given center stage during "open mic week" at Dawg Sports.

Aside from my traditional Independence Day posting tomorrow, I’m out of here for a week. Be good, be safe, and God bless America.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Crumpler Smacks the Competition

tlozwarlock — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:00:19 -0700

via i.a.cnn.net

Jim Mitchell and Junior Miller didn't have a chance. Alge Crumpler's pimp hand is way too strong. He took 79% (201of 252 votes!) of your support and never once looked back at the broken, beaten bodies left in his wake. Alge Crumpler is your Greatest Falcons TE of All Time. Just watch out for that slap move of his. It took out Mitchell and Miller in one hit.

Poll

How strong is Alge Crumpler's pimp hand?

Yellow Jacket Sting: Reggie Ball

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:45:00 -0700

Heyward, Freeman, Palica Promoted to Mississippi!

timmy3 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:13:10 -0700

Heyward, Freeman, Palica Promoted to Mississippi!

The Sun News has confirmed rumors surrounding the blogosphere that Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman have been promoted to Double-A Mississippi:

Stat of the Game | 3 That's the number of Pelicans who were informed following the game they have been promoted to the Atlanta Braves double-A affiliate in Pearl, Miss. First baseman Freddie Freeman, outfielder Jason Heyward and lefthanded pitcher Tommy Palica are all moving up to the Mississippi Braves. They are being replaced today by three players from low-A Rome.

Hanson named top NL rookie for June

yondaime4 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:00:45 -0700

Hanson named top NL rookie for June

First month in the majors? Best rookie in the league.

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 7/2

yondaime4 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:55:16 -0700

Gwinnett 5, Norfolk 4

J. Schafer 0-3 K
JC Holt 2-5 2 SB(9)
B. Jones 2-4 2B, RBI

Another solid start for the young gun John Halama. I guess he has been a solid pick up for Gwinnett so far this season as they desperately needed some pitching depth after the trades and promotions. Gwinnett is sitting 2.5 ames back in the standings behind Norfolk and Durham.

Mississippi 0, West Tenn 1

S. Diamond 8IP 2H 0R 3BB 8K

Scott Diamond was freaking phenomenal as he no hit West Tenn through the first three innings, struck out the side in the 4th inning, and then faced the minimum amount of batter from the 4th to the 8th (he allowed a single that was erased on a double play). And then Jerome Gamble came in for the 9th inning and lost the game.

Salem 1, Myrtle Beach 8

J. Heyward 2-4 2 RBI, K
C. Johnson 2-3 2B, HR(21), 5 RBI
J. Thompson 7IP 3H 1R 2BB 6K

John Sickels talked a little bit about Jason Heyward today over at Minor League Ball today. What he has to say is not anything new, but Heywards power has been down since he returned, even though he is on a 9 game hitting streak currently. Hopefully Cody Johnson's power is returning a little bit with his new tempered approach. He has been hitting .361 over his last 10 games and this was his first homer since June 20 when he hit 2. Jacob Thompson actually pitched 7 innings out of the bullpen in relief of Jose Otegano. I don't know why, but Thompson has looked really good in Myrtle Beach after he posted a 5.20 ERA in Rome.

Bowling Green 5, Rome 0

I won't even get into the individual stuff. Rome only managed 2 hits for the game and Zeke Spruill gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. Only 3 were earned but he gave up another home run in this game and he allowed 7 flyouts vs 4 groundouts.

Princeton 4, Danville 5

RSF 2-4 RBI, 2K
T. Harris 3IP 1H 0R 0BB 4K

Danville scrapped together 4 conectuive baserunners to start the 6th innings and took the lead for good. Tyrelle Harris is another pitcher we took from Tennessee (Duente Heath is another one) and he came in and shut the door for the last 3 innings of the game. Maybe someone to keep an eye on.

GCL Yankees, GCL Braves

R. Odreman 1-2 HR(5), 2 RBI
C. Bethancourt 3-4 2B, HR(1), 2 RBI
C.Perez 3IP 2H 0R 1BB 4K

There were a lot of good performances in this game. Odreman now has 5 homers in 5 games and 7 hits which have all gone for more than 1 base. I picture him in my head beating anthropomorphic baseballs on their big round heads with a baseball bat and then dragging them back to his cave. What I am most excited about in this game is seeing the two 17 year old player, Christian Bethancourt and Carlos Perez, both doing very well so far. CB has 3 XBH and a 3/3 BB/K in his first few games in pro ball. Carlos Perez has just been solid all around in his two appearances with more K than IP. We really have a TON of depth in the low minors. The problem is we really need some of that talent at the top right now.

MegaMen: Eat More Minutes, Get Bigger!

The Falconer — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:44:17 -0700

MegaMen: Eat More Minutes, Get Bigger!

A former beat AJC beat writer (John Manasso I presume) has a new blog in which he points out that three of the Thrasher top four defensemen are all 6'2" or bigger. Three of the four averaged over 20 minutes a game--and Bogosian will almost certainly join that club next season.

Which Opposing Player Does Bulldog Nation Hate the Most?

T Kyle King — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:09:56 -0700

Hate may not be a family value . . .

. . . but it’s damned sure a football value!

Look, don’t take this personally or anything, but, if you aren’t a Georgia fan, I probably don’t like you very much. That’s all right, though, because, if you aren’t a Georgia fan, you probably don’t like me very much, either.

After I answered a sports researcher’s questions about taunting between fan bases, I found out just how much Tennessee fans hate us . . . heck, they even hate our dog, which is just mean.

It always baffles me to be reminded that South Carolina fans hate us, just as it surprises me to learn that some Georgia fans hate Alabama, although, given the recent records of achievement compiled by the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide, I get why such laughter-inducingly misguided broadsides as this silly slur on the Red and Black would bring a Bulldog fan to despise the Tide. (Way to focus on one game and pretend the rest of the last decade hasn’t happened, guys. I hope that eases the sting of the Louisiana-Monroe loss.)

As human beings generally, and as sports fans particularly, we are defined by what we despise as well as by what we love. (If you happen to be a Georgia Tech fan, you’re defined totally by what you hate and may be incapable of love, or at least require kissing lessons.)

I propose that we take it down a notch, from the team-specific to the player-specific. Already certain names have popped into your head, haven’t they? Steve Detwiler. David Treadwell. Kent Hrbek. Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain. (All right, technically, that last one wasn’t from a sports rivalry, unless you happen to believe that war is a metaphor for sports.)

There are even some guys you can’t bring yourself to hate, like Peyton Manning or Tim Tebow (as opposed to the media glorification of Tim Tebow, which is something altogether different), because they seem like genuinely good guys, so you can’t even dislike them personally . . . although I suppose that may make some folks hate them all the more.

What players are on your personal "most hated" list, and why? Let me know in the comments below.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Readers: Hello and Thank You

The Falconer — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:52:14 -0700

The number of new readers visiting this blog has been amazing. In the space of a week the previous record for pageloads was broken three times. So let me say thanks to all of the veteran and first time visitors. I don't write just to draw traffic (otherwise you'd see a lot more Paris Hilton or Jennifer Lopez name dropping) but it certainly makes writing more rewarding when you know there is an audience.

If you're a new reader--come in, sit down and make yourself at home. I would encourage you to take a minute and register so you can comment. Some people find the registration process a barrier, but it really cuts down on spam and insanity in the comment sections.

Also if you feel strongly about something don't be shy about writing your own Fan Post. You don't need my permission of anything. The most recent Fan Posts appear on the right hand side. It is way for you express longer opinions that might no logically fit in the comment area of a post. If you're got some big point to make--get it off your chest with a Fan Post.

Date	Blog Location	Topic/Theme
4-21-2006	Thrashers Talons	2006 Playoff Stats
7-10-2006	Thrashers Talons	2006 Prospect Camp
4-9-2007	Thrashers Talons	2007 Playoff Prediction Model
4-11-2007	Thrashers Talons	2007 Playoff Previews
7-2-2007	Thrashers Talons	2007 Free Agency
7-9-2008	Thrashers Talons	Brian Campbell Rejection
6-24-2009	Bird Watchers Anonymous	2008 NHL Draft
6-26-2009	Bird Watchers Anonymous	2008 NHL Draft
6-27-2009	Bird Watchers Anonymous	2008 NHL Draft

Open Thread 7/2: Phillies at Braves

gondeee — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:00:25 -0700

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Browse more photos »

Do I dare even say the s-word? We certainly have the right pitcher on the mound, and a guy who watched the Surgeon disembowel the Phillies last night. Hey karma! Our Braves need some of that good stuff you got.

Current Series

Braves lead the series 2-0

Tue 06/30	WP: Peter Moylan ( - ) LP: Chan Ho Park ( - )	5 - 4 win
Wed 07/01	WP: Jair Jurrjens ( - ) LP: Cole Hamels ( - )	11 - 1 win
Philadelphia Phillies The Good Phight @ Atlanta Braves Talking Chop Thursday, Jul 2, 2009, 7:10 PM EDT Turner Field J.A. Happ vs Javier Vazquez Mostly clear. Game time temperature around 85. Atlanta Braves - Philadelphia Phillies: Series Preview posted by gondeee 2 days ago 18 comments \| 0 recs Complete Coverage >

Chris Thorburn And the Myth of the "Best 4th Line in Hockey"

The Falconer — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:28:26 -0700

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Browse more photos »

The Atlanta Thrashers announced today that re-signed UFA checking winger Chris Thorburn to a two year extension worth slightly more than the NHL minimum. My question is why? I hate to be "Debbie Downer" here, but I think this was a missed opportunity by the organization. Yes, Thorburn is a) inexpensive b) works hard c) good in the locker room d) is good with the kids, etc. But what about the PK unit? Thorburn is not a PK guy and when your PK is as dreadful as the Thrashers was last two seasons it is like trying to swim to the surface with a lead weight jacket. The Thrashers only had three open roster spots--and by re-signing a guy (Thorburn) who is a non-PK checker they just lowered the ceiling on improving in that key area.

Another beef I have is with all this talk by people around the Thrashers about the team "having the best 4th line in the NHL"--personally I find this absurd. The Thrashers finished 27th overall--with a roster that weak shouldn't a great 4th line be blindingly obvious?

What should a team look for in their 4th line? Three guys who play in the opponent's end and take time off the clock when playing against more skilled players. Players who can hit and change the tempo of the game. Players who are great defensively and can help kill penalties. Players who can come hold their own in goal differential and come off the ice even. Let's take a cold hard look at the "Greek Gods" line or the "Best 4th Line in Hockey!!!" stack up.

Table 1 shows that the Thrashers coaching staff protected the 4th line all last year. The Greek God line didn't go out and shut down the opposition's top scoring lines. Instead, they faced the weakest possible opposition--mostly the other teams 3rd and 4th lines. In fact it was Colin Stuart, Eric Perrin and Colby Armstrong who bore the brunt of the "tough" minutes last season. (Did I mention that Colby Armstrong is the Thrashers "secret MVP"? A forthcoming post.)

Line	Player	Quality of Opposition at ES
4th	Thorburn	0.98
4th	Slater	0.92
4th	Boulton	0.90

3rd	Reasoner	1.04
3rd	C. Stuart	1.07
3rd	Perrin	1.06

2nd	Armstrong	1.06
2nd	Peverley	1.05
2nd	Kozlov	1.02

1st	Kovalchuk	1.04
1st	White	1.02
1st	Little	1.01

(More after the jump)

Did the Bouton-Slater-Thorburn line play in the opposition team's end when they were out on the ice at ES? Did they impose their will and exert pressure on the other team? The best measure of "pressure" is shots attempted (Shots that hit the net or goalie+Shots wide+Shots blocked)---aka called Corsi Numbers after former Sabres Assistant Coach Jim Corsi. Table 2 below shows that the Thrashers 4th line was pretty much man handled while playing against softer opponents. Ugh. Notice which player has the highest offensive Team Shots Attempted (hint: it is not Ilya Kovalchuk) and that only one player had a positive net Team Shots Attempted number?

Line	Player	Shots For Attempted per 60 Minutes (SOG+Missed SOG+Blocked SOG)	Shot Attempts Against Per 60 Minutes (SOG+Missed SOG+Blocked SOG)	Corsi Number Per 60 Minutes
4th	Thorburn	48.0	56.6	-8.6
4th	Slater	48.6	54.7	-6.1
4th	Bouton	43.2	57.1	-13.9

3rd	Reasoner	46.9	53.1	-6.2
3rd	C. Stuart	45.2	53.2	-8.0
3rd	Perrin	46.9	53.0	-6.1

2nd	Armstrong	50.8	50.5	+0.6
2nd	Peverley	49.6	54.7	-5.1
2nd	Kozlov	47.3	50.8	-3.5

1st	Kovalchuk	48.5	53.6	-5.1
1st	White	49.6	49.7	-4.7
1st	Little	45.3	50.3	-5.0

Winning hockey begins and ends with one stat: Goal Differential. It is pretty obvious really, you have to win the scoreboard battle to climb up the standings. Team Goal Differential predicts NHL Standings with a 93% degree accuracy--no other stat comes remotely close to it.

At Even Strength you need your lines to win the Goal Differential battle over the course of the season. Atlanta's biggest weakness last season was the PK, but they also got outshot and outscored at ES. Which lines did best and which lines did wost?

Table 3 below shows who is helping and hurting the Atlanta Thrashers at ES last season. In general the 4th line members did OK, but Chris Thorburn had the worst Goal Differential of any regular still with the team at the end of the year at -10.(Slava Kozlov was 2nd worst, but he more than made up for his ES -6 with awesome PP play and his money shooting in the Shootout.) A rough rule of thumb is that a swing of 5 in the Goal Differential equals one win. Thorburn's -10 means he cost the Thrashers approximately 2 wins over the course of the season. That's not the guy you want to extend for 2 years with other UFA options available.

When Throburn was on the ice he sucked the life out of the offense (1.71 GFA) and had a lousy personal GAA (2.49). A roster filled with nothing but cloned Chris Thorburns would have been outscored 140 to 204 at ES and finished with approximately 54 standing points (yikes!). In contrast a team composed of cloned Jim Slaters would have finished with roughly 81 points. I'm not a Jim Slater fan, but Team Slater is a lot closer to the playoffs than Team Thorburn.

Line	Player	ES Goals For ES	ES Goals Against	ES Goal Diff	xx	ES GF per 60 minutes	ES GA per 60 minutes	Team Goal Differential per 60 Minutes
4th	Thorburn	22	32	-10		1.71	2.49	-0.78
4th	Slater	19	20	-1		2.24	2.36	-0.12
4th	Bouton	18	22	-4		1.90	2.32	-0.42

3rd	Reasoner	33	28	+5		2.17	1.84	+0.33
3rd	C. Stuart	10	11	-1		1.92	2.11	-0.19
3rd	Perrin	27	35	-8		2.08	2.69	-0.62

2nd	Armstrong	48	39	+9		2.84	2.31	+0.53
2nd	Peverley	45	36	+9		3.49	2.79	+0.70
2nd	Kozlov	44	50	-6		2.70	3.07	-0.37

1st	Kovalchuk	68	71	-3		3.47	3.63	-0.15
1st	White	57	62	-5		3.37	3.66	-0.30
1st	Little	55	56	-1		3.43	3.49	-0.06

Random Note: Notice in Table 3 above that Kovalchuk is way ahead of any other player in both ES Goals Scored but also ES Goals Against. Kovy's defense got better in the 2nd half. If he could cut back that ES Goals Allowed to say the level of Todd White's 62 and still produce 68 Goals for that would add two additional wins to the Thrashers season total. You can do it Captain!

Fixing the Penalty Kill

Last year's Thrashers had a lot of problems but the biggest source of grief was the Penalty Kill. The PK ripped a whole in the Thrashers Goal Differential like that iceberg that struck the Titanic. The truth of the matters is that the Thrashes were merely "bad" at Even Strength (-13 GD). That Goal Differential is about what the Edmonton Oilers had last season and they hung around the playoffs for most of the season before being eliminated. In contrast the special teams tacked on another -16 because of the astonishingly brutal PK unit. That extra -16 in Goal Differential is what pushed the Thrashers from merely "bad" to "terrible" in the standings.

Goal Differential by Situation	Goals For	Goals Against
Even Strength	168	181	-13
Power Play	69	10	+59
Short Handed	13	88	-75

At the beginning of the season Anderson expressed a preference for having the checking lines flesh out the PK unit. The NHL season is very long and taxing and such a division of labor would be ideal--it would probably keep the skill players fresh. But the brutal PK forced Coach Anderson to insert Todd White into the mix and he tried a number of different solutions. At some point you have to ask was the source of the problem was team strategy or team personnel?

Let's look at the SH Player Goals Against Average on the PK over the last two seasons. In 2008 the Thrashers PK unit finished 27th and allowed 75 PPGA. In 2009 the PK finished 29th and allowed 88 PPGA. Some observations gathered from Table 4.

Oh, how I miss Marian Hossa and his complete two way game, top scorer and best PKer.
Todd White had the best non-Hossa PK Goals Against Average (GAA) across both seasons and deserves more Short Handed minutes. Even if a tired Todd White scores few points, cutting down on the PKGA is crucial.
Jim Slater had the worst PK GAA across both season and deserves a seat on the bench when ATL is short handed--assuming the Thrashers want to win games.
Inconsistent players who were better one season but worse the next: Exelby, Enstrom, Havelid, Perrin.
Colby Armstrong is an amazing player who does great things for the Thrashers at ES, but for whatever reason he's not a good PK guy here or in Pittsburgh.
Is Bogosian ready to play 25-28 minutes a game? Because there is a PK unit in his neighborhood that needs him badly.

2008 SH Rank	2008 Player	2008 SH TOI per Game	2008 SH GAA	x	2009 SH Rank	2009 Player	2009 SH TOI per Game	2009 SH GAA
1	Hossa	2.59	5.09		1	T. White	0.69	5.27
2	T. White	2.46	6.27		2	Bogosian	1.39	5.50
3	Enstrom	3.00	6.6		3	Schneider	1.01	6.20
4	Exelby	2.68	6.81		4	Valabik	2.03	6.51
5	Havelid	3.48	7.03		5	Hainsey	2.74	7.03
6	Perrin	2.70	7.13		6	Oystrick	0.88	7.73
7	Klee	2.53	7.25		7	Peverley	1.37	7.95
8	Dupuis	2.59	7.44		8	C. Stuart	2.71	8.04
9	Holik	1.25	7.63		9	Reasoner	3.44	8.39
10	McCarthy	0.82	8.03		10	Perrin	3.27	8.46
11	Slater	1.20	10.83		11	Slater	2.60	8.84
12	Zhitnik	1.17	11.00		12	Enstrom	3.27	9.19
13	Kwiatkowski	0.51	13.09		13	Havelid	3.10	10.60
14	Larsen	0.42	20.64		14	Armstrong	0.83	11.41
					15	Exelby	2.22	11.93

How about next season? Well of the guys with the worst PK GAA, Exelby and Havelid have departed and Armstrong doesn't play much while SH anyway--so that's addition by subtraction. On the flip side Schneider and Oystrick posted some decent PK numbers and they are gone too. How about the new guys? Well the Toronto Maple Leafs PK was actually worse than Atlanta's --that's the bad news. The good news is that Antropov was one of their better SH guys (his PK GAA would rank in between Valabik and Schneider) and Kubina's number tied him with Perrin at 11th (not so encouraging).

One more silver lining: the Thrashers are MUCH bigger now and should be able to fill more passing lanes when down by a man. Antropov and Kubina are both big. Valabik should see more time with Exelby gone and he's huge. Notice that the three bottom D on the PK last year Enstrom is tiny (and his great skating is negated by stationary PK) and Havelid and Exelby are merely average height by NHL standards.

Conclusion

Chris Thorburn is a great human being and works very hard at his job. Unfortunately for the Atlanta Thrashers he is not necessarily great at his job despite all that hard work. Perhaps more importantly he can not help them solve their most pressing dilemma the Penalty Kill. In light of these facts, the two year extension signed today seems like a sub-optimal choice given the alternatives available to the Thrashers organization. I'm rather pleased with the Kubina and Antropov additions, but if the Thrashers miss the playoff by 2 points, this particular decision could look very bad next spring.

Braves sweep Phillies, only two back

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:37:06 -0700

Before the Braves flew to Washington late Thursday, they had already soared past Philadelphia.

Fantasy Football Leagues Part 1 - Is it for you?

Jesse28 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:26:15 -0700

Since it’s never too early to discuss the coming NFL season, I thought it could never be too early to discuss something else involving professional football, that being fantasy football leagues. This will be a two part discussion with the first intended for the uninitiated or new participants to fantasy sports, in general terms, and the second going into further detail with regards to fantasy football specifically.

This post will cover the five W’s of who should play, what type they should play, when they should play, where they should go to get started, why they should spend even more time in front of a computer for a silly game. So jump on in Alice, I’ve got a wonderful fantasy world for you to explore!

Personally, I have been playing fantasy sports since I was in middle school, like early 90's. Back then we did everything with pen and paper and used the Sunday edition of the AJC to keep up with stats from box scores. Thankfully, things have progressed since then and, thankfully, Al Gore invented the interwebs for us so now I don’t have to write nearly as much as I used to. No more calculators to add up cumulative stats and create percentage based stats that the paper didn’t track or provide. But, while the computer age has provided us much, I still break out the pen and paper to create strategies and personalize things my own way. Call it an old habit if you will.

I have been running leagues for over a decade now covering just about every sport you can think of. When I couldn’t find a site to provide what I wanted, I created my own just like I did back when I was a teenager. Instead of pen and paper though, I use spreadsheets and formulas. I have created fantasy college football, college baseball, and college basketball leagues in this manner since they don’t have the same following or support that professional sports do. Since this is a Falcons site, I will stick to fantasy football when covering specifics, and since I am most familiar with Yahoo, I will base the rest of this post on my experiences there, but all of the below information should mold to any sport or site you choose to participate in. So let’s start by answering the five W’s, who, what, when, where, and why.

Who should play depends, but the easiest answer is everyone. Everyone should play at least once, that is. If you like sports, regardless if it’s hardcore or casually, fantasy sports leagues will allow one to get even more involved with that sport and more importantly, their chosen team. Sure, I follow the Falcons, but managing a successful fantasy football team is more about following every player in the league than it is following one team. You know how on that one awesome Falcons site, The Falcoholic, there are always these guys posting a bunch of numbers and stats and sometimes you don’t understand what all those acronyms mean? Well, fantasy sports allows you to dive into the world of statistical analysis without doing all the dirty work and it can even act like a 'NFL Stats For Dummies' book. See, who doesn’t benefit from a little extra knowledge?

What fantasy sport you play and when you play it depends on what you like, but there is just about everything you can think of out there so you probably won’t be left out if you wanted to manage an IRL fantasy racing team. All of the major sports are covered thoroughly as well as most of the minor sports, but some will require you to find a specialty site, especially if you are looking for something in the college variety. Obviously, the sport you choose will dictate when you can find a league since all sports follow some form of season. And as far as styles go, well, those are just as varied as the sports available to choose from, so I will cover the football specific things later in the post.

Where you decide to join a fantasy league also depends on what sport you choose. As I mentioned above, most sports are well covered, but some require finding a specialty site, and in some cases you may have to create your own as I have in the past. I use Yahoo for almost all things fantasy sports related, but I have used many others such as FleaFlicker, ESPN, CBSSportline, and countless others over the years. Yahoo's leagues have gotten so much better over the years that I just stopped using other sites unless I was invited to someone's league on a different site. They have a free league and a pay league. Typically you get many more options when you pay for their Plus leagues, however, I have noticed that each year they implement more and more of the Plus league options to their free leagues, so it's really not necessary to pay unless you want to dish out cash prizes or have something very specific that you want to cover in your league. I think last year they finally let the keeper league option go to the free stuff, but can't remember. ESPN, and I believe NFL.com (though I think NFL.com merged with CBSSportsline so...), let's you do a keeper league for free, but CBSSportsline might make you pay for that option.

Why a person should choose to play fantasy sports really comes down to personal choice more than anything else. Maybe you want to be more knowledgeable about the players and teams in your favorite sport. Maybe you want to get a little office rivalry going so you have something to brag about while hanging around the water cooler. Maybe you just want something fun to do while sitting at work home, haha. Either way, for me, I say why not?

Granted this is very generic, but I’m hoping that it helps some who have never experienced the candy that is fantasy sports to take the plunge. Fantasy sports caters to many different types of people that I feel everyone should try it. From casual sports fans to hardcore staticians, fantasy sports provides something for everyone. Stay tuned for part two where I will delve more deeply into fantasy football and how to get started. Thanks for reading!

Tommy Hanson wins NL Rookie of the Month

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:13:14 -0700

Tommy Hanson's resounding first month in the majors was rewarded Thursday when the Braves pitcher was named National League Rookie of the Month for June.

Cox says Hudson is 'ready to go'

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:11:40 -0700

Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox went out to the bullpen beyond right field to watch Tim Hudson's 90-pitch session Thursday afternoon and came back impressed.

Should Atlanta Target Eric Belanger?

The Falconer — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:15:24 -0700

Should Atlanta Target Eric Belanger?

The Thrashers are probably close to being finished--I have them with a projected payroll of $46 after Lehtenon and Armstrong re-sign. If there's another million left in the budget, the PK could still use some help and I wouldn't mind seeing them throw an offer at former Thrashers Eric Belanger.

Maybe If He'd Just Driven Through the Living Room and Left . . .

MaconDawg — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:30:12 -0700

I rarely delve into college football police blotter news. That's partially because Orson Swindle does it so, so much better than I ever could. And because it's a slippery slope. This time of year, if I wrote up every legal indiscretion involving a member of the college pigskin community I'd have time for nothing else. Including bathing, and none of us wants that. But just occasionally, there is a convergence of perp and circumstance that just cries out for recognition.

While it certainly lacks the panache (and horsepower) of Sergio Kindle's midnight ride, just such a moment occurred over the weekend in Knoxville, Tennessee. Former University of Tennessee quarterback and All-Name teamer Jim Bob Cooter was arrested on charges of aggravated burglary Friday after a tip from a female 911 caller. That Cooter was in her bed. Stop laughing. Why is everybody laughing? No, I'm not making this up.

Cooter allegedly crawled in the woman's window, stripped down to his skivvies, then jumped in the sack. It's been a while since I took criminal law, and I've never read the Tennessee penal code. But I always thought that "breaking and entering" or "trespassing" were when you broke into someone's house, and "burglary" was when you broke into someone's house with the intent to steal stuff. I have no idea what Jim Bob was allegedly trying to steal when the nice lady jumped out of bed and called the cops. I'll leave that one to your imagination (and the prosecution's).

At any rate, kudos to Jim Bob Cooter, for perpetrating a crime which actually sounds more like a long lost Three's Company episode (with Peyton Manning as Mr. Farley and Travis Henry as Larry the swinging bachelor neighbor) than a serious transgression. My guess is that he stumbled drunk into the wrong apartment without his keys. Which is funny at 19 but not so much at 25, which Jim Bob will be tomorrow. Happy birthday, sir. Also, kudos to VolunteerTV in the link above for pointing out that Jim Bob's real name is "James Robert". Because Knoxville may be the only place on Earth where that doesn't go without saying.

Until later, lock your doors and windows, and . . .

Go 'Dawgs!!!

For Those Who Doubt the Kubina Deal

The Falconer — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:15:48 -0700

For Those Who Doubt the Kubina Deal

I personally consider the San Jose Sharks one of the very best NHL organizations. They consistently make astute evaluations of amateur and professional talent. I'm encouraged to learn that the Sharks tried to acquire Kubina but his No Trade Clause prevented it.

2009 NHL Free Agency: Thrashers sign Antropov

The Falconer — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:02:54 -0700

I was busy working on my Chris Thorburn post and nearly missed this one.

I'll have more details and analysis later.

Quick hits:

Adds size and skill at center position. Probably pushes Peverley to wing next season.(Team depth is looking so much better than last season.)
Russian, probably plays with Kovalchuk.
Has had trouble staying healthy in the past.

Kubina, Antropov Give Thrashers Fans Some Hope

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:24:00 -0700

by Adam Gretz

Filed under: Thrashers, NHL Free Agency

Hockey fans in Atlanta have known nothing but losing and front office incompetence since the Thrashers joined the NHL a decade ago. Even the best season in franchise history, the 2006-07 campaign that saw the Thrashers qualify for their first and only playoff appearance, ended in disappointment as they were quickly swept under the rug in four games by the New York Rangers.

In the two seasons following that trip to the postseason, the Thrashers have returned to their sub-80-point ways, toiling at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. Thanks to a couple of shrewd moves at the start of the offseason, and some returning young talent, this year's version of the Thrashers looks like it has a chance to make some noise.

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The annual Ultimate Sports Teams list, which ranks teams based on how well they "give back to the...

gondeee — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:03:45 -0700

The annual Ultimate Sports Teams list, which ranks teams based on how well they "give back to the fans in exchange for all the time, money and emotion the fans invest in them," ranked the Braves 27th overall. The Atlanta Falcons came in at 43rd, The Atlanta Hawks landed at 80th and the Atlanta Thrashers placed 108th.

ESPN: Braves are Atlanta’s best (Atlanta Business Chronicle)
Neat. I'm surprised we're higher than the Falcons, what with the South being retarded for football. I mean, jeez, I've gotten two fantasy football invites already -- is football starting up again already?

A Falcons 1st Round Draft Pick Retrospective (Part 3)

tlozwarlock — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:00:26 -0700

via www.checkoutmycards.com

It's Thursday already? Man, the week is just flying by. Seems like only yesterday I was posting the TE nomination thread. Ah well, on to the next five first round draft picks. This next bunch features three out of five decent players which is batting above .500 (a fantastic Falcons feat considering their past blunders). Hurdle the jump to meet 'em.

Year	Pick	Player	Position	College
1977	20	Wilson Faumuina	DT	San Jose State
1978	13	Mike Kenn	OT	Michigan
1979	17	Don Smith	DE	Miami (FLA)
1980	7	Junior Miller	TE	Nebraska
1981	25	Bobby Butler	CB	Florida State

Wilson Faumuina was drafted as a DT but tried his hand at being a DE as well. Unfortunately, it seems as if he was a complete bust. He spent five years in Falcons red, spending only one year (his third) as a full time starter. He left the league in 1981 and died of heart failure five years later. The brightest spot of his career seems to be an interception with a seven yard return in 1979. This could have solidified his starting spot in 1980.

A year later, the Falcons chose, in my humble opinion, the biggest asset to come out of this five year block of drafting. Mike Kenn has been lauded by many of you before. Let's laud some more. Kenn started immediately and never stopped. He started every single game he ever played, setting a franchise record. He managed to win the starting left tackle spot for seventeen years in a row before retiring. At age 38, Kenn was beating out much younger players. A player of his stamina and longevity surely made the Pro Bowl right? You betcha he did; five years in a row and he won 1st Team All Pro (AP) in 1980 and 1991. Expect to see him winning the vote next week when we choose the greatest Falcon OL of all time. He'll have stiff competition, but keep in mind...he would have probably won the starting roster spot against any other candidate.

The Falcons have a habit of alternating their first round draft picks between offensive and defensive players. That's probably why there's a pretty even split over the franchise's forty-three drafts. The Birds didn't buck that trend in 1980, picking up defensive end Don Smith out of Miami U. Don started for the team right away and spent six years with that lovely black falcon on his helmet. He generated some serviceable stats but never really made a name for himself. I certainly never heard of him before this week.

The next Falcon draftee is currently getting whooped by Alge Crumpler and Jim Mitchell in the Greatest Falcon TE of All Time poll. But Junior Miller wasn't bad. He was good enough to be sent to two Pro Bowls in a row (80-81) and generated some very good stats for a time when players, as many of our old-schoolers tell us, were less athleticly blessed. Here's what reader Tybeaux had to say about Miller:

He was the fastest tight end I ever seen. And was a good blocker also. Just think if we had used him like TE’s are used now? He would be a beast!!

Last on the list is Bobby Butler, a cornerback who spent his entire career with the Falcons. From 1981 to 1988, he started every game he played in. Overall, Butler serviced the Falcons secondary for twelve years but never earned a Pro Bowl appearance or otherwise made himself known to the annals of football history. Decent but not noteworthy. A good pick? Yeah, for a third rounder; we picked him in the first.

Tune in next week when we'll be looking at more first rounders' careers.

ACC Football Preview: Ranking the quarterbacks

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:10:00 -0700

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 7/1

yondaime4 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:23:19 -0700

Gwinnett - Off

Mississippi 6, West Tenn 5

M. Young 3-4 2B, 3B, BB, K
W. Cabrera 2-4 2B, RBI, BB, K
C. Rodriguez 1-3 3B, RBI, 2 BB

Mat Young fell a homer short of the cycle in this game and continues to be a spark plug at the top of the order for Mississippi. His OPS is up over .800 for the season now and is coming off a month where he hit .323 with a .455 OBP. Willie Cabrera quietly had an excellent month of June posting a .290/.387/.450 line for the month. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start to come on in the second half of the season.

Myrtle Beach 6, Kinston 5, - 10 Innings

D. Linares 2-5 RBI, K
J. Sucre 2-5 2B
C. Rohrbough 5.2IP 9H 5R 3BB 6K

Cole Rohrbough just doesn't want to be the Braves top pitching prospect. He keeps flashing some of that ability we know is in there somewhere but he is walking too many guys and giving up too many hits. Frederick Freeman and Jason Heyward combined for 1 hit. Heyward is actually in the middle of an 8 game hitting streak right now, but it has been mostly singles. He hasn't really flashed a whole lot of power since he came back to the team, but I'm not supa worried. Jesus Sucre has also hit pretty well since he got called up from Rome.

Bowling Green 6, Rome 1

D. Delgado 7IP 4H 6R 2BB 6K

Consecutive bad starts for the Delgado boys. Delgado gave up all of his runs in the 4th inning and made a mistake that ended up being a grand slam. He induced a ton of groundballs (11 vs 4 fly outs) and was victimized by an error and a passed ball in the 4th as well. He really did pitch better than his numbers would indicate. And even those look good without the runs (which are of course the most important).

Kingsport 2, Danville 4

A. Milligan 2-4 BB
RSF 4-4 2RBI
T. Stovall 4.1IP 1H 0R 5BB 7K

Do you love or hate this outing by Tyler Stovall? I guess I am ok since all total he only allowed 6 baserunners, and those Ks do look really nice. But 5 walks will always raise a miature red flag. Some people think that Stovall will be the best pitcher we took last year because of his projectability. RSF is hitting .538 in his first 8 games of the season. Thats stupid, even if it is just 8 games.

GCL Phillies @ GCL Braves - Postponed due to Rain

Rain rain, go away.

Game 77 Recap: Philles 1, Braves 11

gondeee — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:04:51 -0700

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves starter Jair Jurrjens works in the first inning of a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies in Atlanta, Wednesday July 1, 2009.

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A lot of good stuff going on tonight. The Braves finally scored some runs for starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens. The Phillies only got 1 hit off of Jurrjens through 7 innings, and that hit didn't happen until the last out of the seventh when former Braves catcher Paul Bako laced a legit single into left center. While the Braves did score 11 runs, Jurrjens was really the story of the night. He walked four batters, but kept the Phillies hitters off balance and used the wind blowing in to get them out in the air (4 groundouts vs. 11 flyouts). He also recorded 6 stikeouts

The scoring got started by the same guy who was the hitting star last night, Martin Prado. After Jurrjens got a hit to left field, Blanco followed with a hit, before Prado laced a double to score two runs and get the Braves on the board. Chipper Jones drove in Prado to give the Braves a 3-run lead. Two innings later, the Braves chased the Phillies starter Cole Hamels, who couldn't get an out in the fifth.

In that fifth inning, the Phillies reliever didn't fare any better, giving up an opposite field homerun to Matt Diaz that drove in the last of Hamels' baserunners. Diory Hernandez added his first major league homerun later in the inning, and received the silent treatment as he entered the dugout -- a sure sign that this Braves team was having fun playing baseball tonight.

Brian McCann broke an 0-for-13 streak (I believe) with 2 hits. Yunel Escobar came off the bench for an RBI hit -- his specialty. Reliever Manny Acosta, slowed last week by the flu bug, pitched the ninth and was dealing, running the ball up to 95 mph. It would be a big boost to our bullpen to get Acosta going -- he could take the place of Jeff Bennett while Bennett is on the DL (and beyond).

Fantastic game! Let's get that sweep tomorrow.

Final - 7.1.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1
Atlanta Braves	0	0	3	0	6	0	0	2	X	11	14	2
WP: Jair Jurrjens (6 - 6) LP: Cole Hamels (4 - 5)

Complete Coverage >

Why the Georgia Bulldogs Will Not Play the Michigan Wolverines in 2010 . . . or Probably Ever

T Kyle King — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 18:23:23 -0700

Never gonna happen, my friend.

All right, I really wasn’t planning to write anything more about this, other than noting it dismissively, especially since the author of the original piece felt moved to add this caveat after his gossiping began to gain some traction:

UPDATE: I’d like to clarify that the sources I refer to are not from the Michigan Athletic Department, and this still remains a rumor

This is that particular author’s politically correct way of saying, "I am utterly full of unmitigated crap." However, since this bit of baseless conjecture has proven yet again that a lie can travel from Maine to Georgia while truth is still getting on its boots, it is time to put this idea to rest, once and for all.

I begin, however, with a caveat: I strongly favor a home-and-home series between Georgia and Michigan. Having openly agitated for such an arrangement in the past, and having thought we were close to getting a deal done at one point, I had my hopes dashed and I now believe the Bulldogs and the Wolverines will never meet outside of a Sunshine State bowl game.

Nevertheless, because enthusiasm understandably is high among Big Ten partisans, it is necessary for me to emphasize that this rumor was pulled out of thin air. In this case, "thin air" is a euphemism for "the rumormonger’s hindquarters."

Because he bothered to check the schedule, Brian Cook knows this is nonsense. There simply isn’t room for Michigan on the schedule in 2010. In addition to playing Georgia Tech at Grant Field, the Bulldogs have a road game against Colorado in Boulder. This is the return game from the Buffaloes’ 2006 trip to Athens. Colorado (quite understandably) would not want to let Georgia out of this contractually-mandated contest, and Damon Evans (quite understandably) would not be willing to give up the home game.

Moreover, in stark contrast to the purveyor of this rumor (who explicitly states that his "source" is not someone in the Michigan athletic department), David Hale was in Butts-Mehre Heritage Hall when this supposed "story" broke, and he couldn’t find anyone who knew the first thing about it. David has proven himself as a reporter covering the Bulldog beat, so, if he asked around and couldn’t sniff out the story, there is no story out to be sniffed.

Finally, Georgia has played at Ann Arbor twice already and would never agree to a regular-season series with Michigan that didn’t involve bringing the Maize and Blue to the Classic City. That fact is important because, to be blunt, the Wolverines will play a regular-season road game against an SEC team over Bill Martin’s dead body. I state that position with conviction because I wrote the Michigan athletic director about such a prospect and he sent me a polite reply in which he identified the Wolverines’ long term contract with Notre Dame as the chief impediment to such a series. He then proceeded to renew the arrangement with the Fighting Irish for the next umpteen jillion years.

I don’t think Michigan is running scared---the Wolverines have a good enough record against the SEC that they have no reason for being afraid---but the fact is that, outside of State College (where over a century of athletic independence has not been overcome by a decade and a half of conference affiliation), Big Ten teams don’t schedule SEC teams, period.

Should it happen? Eventually, it absolutely should. Will it happen? Probably not in Bill Martin’s lifetime, and probably not at all. Is it going to happen in 2010? No, it isn’t.

Move along, folks; there’s nothing to see here. We now return to our regularly-scheduled offseason, which is already in progress.

Go ‘Dawgs!

For a Good Time--Visit the HF Leafs Board...

The Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 18:04:04 -0700

For a Good Time--Visit the HF Leafs Board...

...all the outrage and anger will help reduce the pain of the Coburn for Zhitnik trade.

2009 NHL Free Agency: Pavel Kubina Trade Analysis

The Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 17:14:45 -0700

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

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Last season the Atlanta Thrashers allowed 279 Goals Against and finished 29th in Team Defense. The Thrashers Penalty Kill was equally bad allowing 88 goals against and a Penalty Kill percentage of 76% which was 29th in the NHL. Improving on the defensive side of the puck is the easiest way for the Thrashers to move up in the standings. Goal differential predicts the standings and therefore a goal prevented is as valuable as a goal scored.

Given that the Thrashers style of play under Coach John Anderson, it is unlikely they will ever rank as an elite defensive team. However, a strong offense combined with a merely average defense could be sufficient to get them into the post-season. The addition of Pavel Kubina should help the team begin the climb out of the basement.

Kubina is a good fit for John Anderson hockey. He has good skating, good passing and good shooting skills. He will replace Exelby on the team roster--a player lacking in all three areas, but outstanding at hitting. Exelby's struggles with making a good first pass, and his tendency to dump the puck to center ice have been documented in this space before so I'm not going to harp on it. Replacing Exelby with Kubina immediately increases the number of tape-to-tape outlet passes. With Kubina the Thrashers should clear their zone and keep possession of the puck more often allowing the speedy skill forwards to fly down the ice and play in the opponent's end more of the time.

Hockey is not so much a game of puck possession but rather of puck position--playing in the other team's end increases your odds of having a favorable bounce turn into a goal for you instead of a goal against you. If the Thrashers do a better job of clearing their zone while still retaining possession of the puck, it should help shift the balance of scoring chances.

Analysts who study "shot quality" (or more accurately "shot location") have shown that the Thrashers not only are out-shot season-after-season, but they also allow a disproportionate number of shots from high percentage areas such as the slot. If the Thrashers cut down on both the number and quality of shots in the coming season look for Kari Lehtonen's GAA and SV% to improve significantly.

Pavel Kubina Profile

In 2008 Kubina played a lot of tough minutes against quality opposition forwards. In 2009 with the emergence of Luke Schenn as a top defenseman, his "tough minutes" slipped back to the normal range for a NHL defenseman. In both 2008 and 2009 Kubina had a positive Corsi Number--meaning that when he was on the ice at even strength his team out shot the opposition--a very welcome sign for the perennially out-shot Atlanta Thrashers.

While Kubina did not always lead his team in SH Minutes, he was one of the more effective PKers for the Maple Leafs. Over at Behind The Net Gabriel Desjardins has a rating system that allows you to compare the team PP and PK performance when Kubina was either on or off the ice. In both 2008 and 2009 seasons, the Toronto PK performed better when Kubina was out there than when he was on the bench. The same is true for the PP which was more effective when he was on the ice. The stats clearly indicate that Kubina was a difference maker relative to other guys on his squad.

One more aspect that he brings to the table is a willingness to mix it up. Brian Burke may not have appreciated his toughness, but Kubina has finished with 90 or more penalty minutes six different season and will drop the gloves to stand up for a teammate. Kubina also brings some needed size to the blueline which will allow him to close off more of the passing lanes on the PK than the departed Exelby.

To get a sense of how Kubina has been used in his NHL career I have created a table showing his Time On Ice (TOI) percentile rankings. A high number means that you are at the very top of all NHL defenseman who play half a season's worth of games. Throughout his career Kubina has been a consistent 2nd pairing defensemen at Even Strength and also someone who consistently gets plenty of PP minutes. While he has seen regular PK duty he has usually ranked in the bottom half of NHL PK Defensemen (a bit of a concern).

In terms of his scoring efficiency, Kubina has consistently put up points both at ES and on the PP. He has ranked above average nearly every season and has sprinkled in a couple of elite level performances over the years both at ES and on the PP. These high ranking numbers are more evidence of his puck skills, shooting skills and hockey intelligence.

Season	Age	ES TOI Rank	PP TOI Rank	SH TOI Rank	Total TOI Rank	ES Scoring Rate Rank	PP Scoring Rate Rank	Total Scoring Rate Rank
1999	21	89%	51%	44%	79%	62%	43%	61%
2000	22	73%	81%	16%	73%	33%	66%	71%
2001	23	59%	87%	65%	87%	79%	33%	76%
2002	24	78%	75%	41%	82%	46%	75%	76%
2003	25	55%	63%	33%	59%	58%	50%	63%
2004	26	54%	56%	32%	60%	91%	56%	83%
2006	28	49%	76%	44%	75%	26%	81%	74%
2007	29	64%	39%	53%	66%	58%	69%	61%
2008	30	74%	65%	83%	89%	90%	84%	89%
2009	31	63%	69%	26%	70%	64%	77%	73%
	Career Average	66%	66%	44%	74%	61%	63%	73%

Overall Pavel Kubina appears to be a very solid fit for the Thrashers and the style their coaching staff wants to play. However, there are some downsides to this trade. While Exelby was not a top 4 player on the ice, he was a locker room presence and will likely be missed by teammates. If I were to nitpick, I wish that Kubina was more of PK warrior with his previous team.

Another risk, is that he could depart next summer as a UFA. I am assuming team will try to re-sign him. However if a young D takes major step forward (Valabik, Salmela, Lewis, Kulda) perhaps they might want to open a spot fin the top four heading into 2010 season.

In a odd quirk, there are no Canadians on the projected opening night defense (2 Americans and 4 Europeans). Kubina (Czech Republic) is from the same region of Europe as Boris Valabik (Slovakia) and perhaps he could provide some mentoring as a NHL veteran to a young defensemen trying to find his way in the world's best hockey league. Kubina also brings some needed playoff experience to a very young defense. He won a Stanley Cup in 2004 with Tampa Bay.

Conclusion

In the past the Thrashers have invested their payroll and offense and tried to muddle through with band aids on the blueline. This season they have really committed big money to the defense and goaltending positions, roughly $20 million (Kubina $5.0; Hainsey $4.5, Enstrom $4.0, Lehtonen $4.0 * estimate Bogosian $1, Valabik $0.8 and Salmela $0.6). They have invested in the position of greatest need. if the young players continue to improve and the veterans perform as expected they have the potential of making significant reductions in the number of goals allowed next year.

Open Thread 7/1: Phillies at Braves

gondeee — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:00:19 -0700

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

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It's July! We survived June without too much damage. The Braves always seem to suck it up in June, at least in recent years. The Surgeon is on the mound tonight against Whole Camels.

Current Series

Braves lead the series 1-0

Tue 06/30	WP: Peter Moylan ( - ) LP: Chan Ho Park ( - )	5 - 4 win
Philadelphia Phillies The Good Phight @ Atlanta Braves Talking Chop Wednesday, Jul 1, 2009, 7:10 PM EDT Turner Field Cole Hamels vs Jair Jurrjens Mostly clear. Game time temperature around 90. Atlanta Braves - Philadelphia Phillies: Series Preview posted by gondeee 1 day ago 18 comments \| 0 recs Complete Coverage >
Thu 07/02		7:10 PM EDT

Breaking News: TSN says Kubina for Exelby & C. Stuart

The Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:29:02 -0700

...awaiting details.

Toronto's 2nd best defenseman for the Thrashers 3rd pairing guy. I like it so far. Kubina makes $5 million which means less $ for a top six forward.

Thrashers 2009-2010 Defense

Bogosian-Enstrom
Hainsey-Kubina
Valabik-Salmela

ummm, ~~tasty~~ respectable?

UPDATE: Colin Stuart heading to Toronto as part of the trade. I'm sorry to see Stuart depart. He brought speed and size to our checking line and was a solid PK guy. I was really hoping he would help improve our PK this coming season.

I know that a member of the Stuart family is a regular blog reader back in Minnesota so please pass along my best wishes. He should get a great opportunity to become a NHL regular heading into NHL camp this fall with Toronto.

A quick and dirty revision to the Thrashers salary chart, post-trade

1st Line	Kovalchuk	6.4	White	2.4	Little	0.9
2nd Line	Kane	1.0 + bonus $	Peverley	0.5	*UFA*	???
3rd Line	Kozlov	3.7	Reasoner	1.2	Armstrong	(2.2)
4th Line	Boulton	0.6	Slater	(0.8)	Thorburn	(0.6)
1st Defense	Bogosian	1.0+ bonus $	Enstrom	3.8
2nd Defense	Hainsey	4.5	Kubina	5.0	Lewis/Kulda	0.5
3rd Defense	Valabik	(0.9)	Selmela	0.6	LaValle/Macheck	0.5
Goalies	Lehtonen	(4.0)	Hedberg	1.1

Projected team cap number: $42.0 million

Projected team budget $46 million

Projected money available: ~$4.0 million

Could they get Antropov to sign for $4.0-4.5 million?

Does this open the door for prospects like Lewis and Kulda to compete for th 7th D slot and LaValle and Macheck for the 13th forward position?

Braves support Jurrjens, who flirts with no-hitter

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:30:34 -0700

Lost in a rubble of run support that Jair Jurrjens hadn't seen in a month came a gem of a pitching performance.

Braves starter Tim Hudson set to begin rehab in two weeks

gondeee — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:05:48 -0700

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

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Atlanta Braves right-handed starting pitcher Tim Hudson is close to taking the next big step in his return from Tommy John surgery. Hudson had the surgery last July 27th, and has been rehabbing ever since, including throwing off the mound in the bullpen recently. The organization has now scheduled him to pitch for Myrtle Beach on July 19th and 23rd. He will then be reevaluated, and could be ready for major league action soon after.

If Hudson's outings in mid and late July are successful, and the club deems him close to returning, this could open up the Braves to trade Javier Vazquez for other pieces that the club needs. I've made the argument several times that Vazquez is our most tradable player (even more than Yunel Escobar), and there are a lot of teams that need to add more starting pitching. The good season Vazquez has had to this point also means that he has likely increased his trade value since coming to Atlanta last off-season, that's more reason that the Braves should trade him if they feel that Hudson can step into the rotation shortly thereafter.

Rumors Thrashers About to Acquire Kubina from Toronto

The Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:02:30 -0700

Rumors Thrashers About to Acquire Kubina from Toronto

If you're not on Twitter you're totally missing out on the NHL Free Agent frenzy. Many rumors a Kubina to Atlanta trade is pending. He only has 1 year left on his current contract so perhaps ATL is seeing if he will sign an extension before making the deal.

Pavel Kubina Traded to Atlanta; Toronto Signs Mike Komisarek

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:30:00 -0700

by Adam Gretz

Filed under: Maple Leafs, Thrashers, NHL Free Agency

Late last week, Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke made it clear that his team would not be pushed around this upcoming season. Based on his first moves this offseason, he wasn't kidding. After signing tough-guy Colton Orr to a four-year, $4 million deal earlier on Wednesday, the Leafs sent defenseman Pavel Kubina, and the rights to Tim Stapleton, to the Atlanta Thrashers for Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart.

On the surface, it's a woefully lopsided trade in favor of Atlanta, and nothing more than a salary dump for Toronto.

The plus side? Just moments after the deal was made, word surfaced that defenseman Mike Komisarek had signed with the Maple Leafs.

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The Braves love lefthanded pitching, and word in Latin America is that they like Dominican power...

gondeee — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:02:30 -0700

The Braves love lefthanded pitching, and word in Latin America is that they like Dominican power lefty Edgar Ferreira this year. Scouts have called Ferreira's asking price exorbitant, but he has a chance to push seven figures with his bonus. The Braves are active in Panama again after signing Panamanian catcher Christian Bethancourt last year for $600,000. They have also been connected to Venezuelan shortstop Humberto Valor, though there's no clear leader for his services.

Baseball America previews the international free agent signing period
We should know by the end of the day or tomorrow who the Braves signed. There seem to be a lot more team in the mix this year than there normally are.

I'm not buying this for a second . . .

T Kyle King — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:06:03 -0700

I'm not buying this for a second . . .

. . . but it was worth a mention, nevertheless.

(Much obliged to the fine fellows at The Rivalry, Esq., for bringing it to my attention.)

Go 'Dawgs!

Tim Hudson eyes return to Braves

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 17:01:05 -0700

Tim Hudson will throw a 90-pitch bullpen session today and then get ready for the next step in his comeback from elbow-reconstruction surgery: facing hitters. He'll pitch batting practice the first two days the Braves are in Chicago to play the Cubs on Monday and Tuesday.

Braves' Kelly Johnson reacts to benching

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:54:45 -0700

What's good for Martin Prado is not so good for Kelly Johnson, after manager Bobby Cox said Tuesday night that it was time to give Prado a shot at the everyday second base job.

UGA vs. Michigan in 2010/2011?

Paul Westerdawg — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:21:00 -0700

Michigan fans react to this post.

Despite the rumors swirling around about a potential two game series between UGA and Michigan, we heard earlier this afternoon from a pretty good source that there's nothing to it. Certainly not now anyway. The rumor originated from the Michigan campus newspaper.

Additionally, Bill King the AJC fan blogger debunks the rumor via applying common sense to the situation; although, he made no indication of actually calling the athletic department and asking.

The original rumor had UGA traveling to the Big House in 2010 to open the season. King pointed out that UGA already has a season opener against Louisiana-Lafayette in 2010. However, that's not such a big problem according to the Athens Banner-Herald (05/18/09):

"Georgia would play Louisiana-Lafayette on Sept. 4, 2010 in the season opener, but that might be moved to a November date to accommodate another opponent the Bulldogs might add, [Arthur] Johnson said."

The real issues are these (some Bill outlined and some he didn't):
1. Georgia absolutely will not play a schedule with only five home games. To play a game at Michigan in 2010 (and the series would have to start there due to the UM schedule), UGA would only have 5 home games. For financial and political reasons that will never, ever, ever happen. Nor should it.

2. To avoid having only 5 home games, we would have to cancel the road game at Colorado in 2010 or move it. It would be extremely difficult to move that game given Colorado's schedule. So we'd have to buy the game out. Thereby reducing the financial incentive of playing Michigan in the first place. I would glady swap two games with Michigan for one game with Colorado. Or we could move the UF game out of Jax (kidding).

2. UGA's 2011 schedule is full. We've already moved the App State game once. I guess we could move it again. But we just booked NMSU so I'm doubting that we're about to move that one. That leaves the Louisville game. Pushing the first game in that series (home in 2011) out makes no sense because 2012-2014 is when the schedule turns more difficult with Bama and LSU returning to the rotation. So we'd have to cancel the series likely. Do you think that Georgia is going to pay the cancellation fees to end one game with Colorado and two games with Louisville just to play Michigan? That seems pretty expensive.

3. Michigan has only played three games in the Deep South during the regular season since the Great Depression. Those games include:

Chapel Hill - '65
Duke - '68
S. Carolina - '85

In my opinion, they aren't coming down here in September. You can pretty well forget that. Since 1922, Michigan hasn't traveled to the states of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Missisippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Virginia, Texas or Oklahoma. During those years, schools from almost all of those states have played games in Ann Arbor without a return trip. Including Georgia (1957 and 1965).

I would be shocked out of my chair if this happened. Thrilled. But shocked.

Brian Cook, leading Michgan blogger, doesn't think it'll happen either; although, some of his details are wrong about UGA's scheduling issues.

PWD

GT Alum Tashard Choice in CNNSI.com

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:05:00 -0700

Jeff Francoeur and the extra base hit

gondeee — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 07:58:34 -0700

More photos » by Erik S. Lesser - AP

Like his bat, Jeff Francoeur of the Atlanta Braves, is broken.

Browse more photos »

When Jeff Francoeur burst on the scene in 2005, he did so with a display of power that the Braves desperately needed. He hit a magical homerun in his first game, and slugged five more his first month in the big leagues. Since then, it seems that Francoeur's power has been withering away, like that silver happy birthday balloon that slowly sinks to the floor as it loses more and more of its helium.

This season, Frenchy has supplied so little power that he is sandwiched at the bottom of the league in sluggling percentage, right between the light-hitting Mike Fontenot and David Eckstein. This is just one reason why the Atlanta Braves should part ways with Jeff Francoeur.

The trend line for Jeff Francoeur's slugging percentage is not a good one:

Year	SLG %
2005	.549
2006	.449
2007	.444
2008	.359
2009	.351

Francoeur's power has done nothing but drop every year he's been in the majors. While other stats have fluctuated, his power simply declines.

A right fielder with the ability to get extra base hits is an important, if not essential, part of a winning baseball team. A team simply does not stick a weak hitter in a corner outfield spot, and yet the Braves have done nothing but that the last two years (so should we be surprised by our team's results).

When Jeff Francoeur hits for power this year, and it is admitedly a small sample size -- just 15 games with an extra base hit, and just 1 game with two extra base hits -- the Braves have fared better than their season winning percentage. The team has 9 wins and 6 losses in games that Francoeur has collected an extra base hit, and they are 5-and-1 in games in which he has homered. While this is a small sample size, it ceratinly seems that when our right fielder hits for power, as he should, this team is better.

The problem is that it is only 15 games. Only 15 games in which he has collected an extra base hit. So all those games in which he doesn't get an XBH, the team is 27-and-34. How many of those losses could be turned into wins if Francoeur had contributed an extra base hit or two? Just double the XBH by Francoeur and the Braves might have a winning record.

Nothing in his career, and nothing this year says that Jeff Francoeur is going to turn things around. He can barely hit major league pitching, and he certainly can't hit with any consistent power. The Braves need to replace Jeff Francoeur with someone else who has a chance of being a better threat to drive in runs and hit for extra bases. I don't know that there is anyone currently in our system, and potentially major league ready, who we could replace Francoeur with.

This underscores the need to trade for another outfielder -- one that can hit for power -- and send Francoeur down, or simply outright release him. There is no good reason to keep a batter like him in the lineup for the rest of the season.

Rick Dudley Discuss Role with Thrashers

The Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 07:34:21 -0700

Rick Dudley Discuss Role with Thrashers

A good Q and A over at the Thrashers site in which Dudley talks about past NHL scouting "finds" and where he fits into the Thrashers front office.

2009 NHL Free Agency: Who Should the Thrashers Target at Defense?

The Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:45:09 -0700

Thrashers GM Don Waddell has stated that his off season goals were to acquire a top six forwards (preferably with some size) and a top four defenseman (who can help shore up the PK). The team could trade one of their goalies to fill one of those roster holes. Assuming the Thrashers intend to find their top four defenseman on the free agent market--whom should the team target? Before I get into specific names, let me establish some parameters to cut down the field.

The player should have played top four minutes last year in the NHL. There are quite a few 3rd pairing and fringe defensemen on the free agent list. Assuming a current 3rd pairing guy can step up to 2nd pairing minutes could be a big mistake.
Defensemen who played "soft minutes" against the opposition's weaker lines should be avoided. The Thrashers defense needs someone who can withstand the pressure of playing against Ovechkin, Lecavlier, Booth, Crosby and Malkin. Using the Quality of Competition ratings I eliminated all the defensemen who were protected by their coaches and not put out against the other team's better players.
Age is a very important factor. Most of these free agents will be seeking multi-year deals.Most players have their peak year between the ages of 25-30. Hall of Fame level player can remain quite productive until their late 30s, but players who are not at that Hall of Fame level can crash and burn as early as 33-35. If you're going to award a 3 or 4 year deal, any team would be wise to keep the age curve in mind and target players 30 or younger.

Once you eliminate 3rd pairing guys, players who skated versus weak opposition and players over 30 that leaves a pretty small list of top targets. Who makes the cut? That will be revealed after the jump.

And without futher delay, here's the list of players who made the cut listed in order of age.

Mike Komisarek 25 (MON). With Jay Bouwmeester off the market Komisarek is probably the premier D available. Some team will almost certainly overpay for his services (NYR or TOR) and likely push him out of the Thrashers price range. Montreal PK posted surprisingly poor numbers when he was on the ice Short Handed.

~~Nick Schultz 26~~ (MIN). On paper he looks like a perfect fit for the Thrashers. Played tough minutes the last two years. He also played a lot at ES (good partner for Hainsey) and got lots of time on the Wild PK unit. He will not contribute much on offense which could keep his price low. Played lots of minutes on a good defensive team. One of the better PKers on the Wild the last two seasons.

Greg Zanon 27 (NSH). A purely defensive defenseman coming out of a franchise that seems to mint NHL D with ease. The coaching staff leaned on him hard to help out their PK (94% ranking in SH TOI) the last two years. He brings essentially zero offense to the table. Because of his weak offense, he should be rather affordable. If the Thrashers desire to spend big on a RW like Cammaleri or a C like Antropov adding Zanon to the blueline for a modest sum could allow them to fill both holes and not blow the budget.

Francois Beauchemin 29 (ANA). Some positives here, played a lot of tough minutes both years. Played lots of ES and SH ice time. His scoring rates were poor. As a Stanley Cup winner he will almost certainly be overpaid. How will he look when not paired with great defensemen (Niedermayer, Pronger)?

Martin Skoula 29 (MIN). Has played against average opponents the last two years. His ES TOI was quite high in 2008 and slid down a bit in 2009 but was still above average. Receives regular PK time, but is not the leader on his team, no significant PP time. His offense is quite tepid (35% ES Scoring Rate Ranking, 26% Overall Scoring Rate Ranking). Played regularly on good defensive team in Minnesota.

Paul Mara 29 (NYR). Has faced average opposition the last two seasons, and has often been out on the ice with inferior teammates. Despite this unfavorable situation, Mara manged a positive Corsi number (Net shots attemped when he was on the ice) and a positive Plus/Minus. His ice time distribution is quite unusual as he coaches played him in ES, PP and SH situations. He was a "jack of all trades but master of now" the last two years. His offensive scoring efficiency is slight above average. Put up extremely good short handed GAA the last two years--was clearly one of the best PKers on his team.

Derek Morris 30 (PHX/NYR). Played really tough minutes for Phoenix Coyotes in 2008 which reverted back the mean in 2009. He brings a really nice mix of skills a team, capable of playing both ES, PP and SH. His ES scoring rate levels are considerably below average and he has been both hot and cold on the PP the last two years. A little below average compared to team mates on the PK.

Rober Scuderi 30 (PIT). A NHL journeyman who had a career year at the perfect time(Stanley Cup and now $$$). I'll be shocked if he doesn't end up being overpaid for what he brings to the table. He has always played tough minutes but his coaches have kept his ice time low at ES--even this year his EST% was just 36% among all regular NHL defenders (barely top 4). He does receive lots of PK play, but for the money Zanon brings a similar skill set for a much cheaper price. Pass.

What if we relax the age cut off slightly? Two interesting defenseman might be worthy of consideration.

~~Mattias Ohlund 32~~ (VAN). Played a fair number of soft minutes in 2008, but this went back to average in 2009. Capable of playing in all situations, his ES TOI was cut back in 2009. His offensive efficiency in 2008 fell somewhere between above-average and elite, but his scoring rates took a big decline in 2009. Hard to know what these trends mean. Are falling TOI numbers and scoring rates a sign of impending collapse or just a down year? Better than his teammates on the PK the last two years.

Filip Kuba 32 (TBL/OTT). Kuba was an ice time monster in 2008 with Tampa and put up some impressive scoring rates at Even Strength a year ago. But many of 2008 minutes were soft ones and in 2009 Kuba faced harder opposition and declining ES minutes. He was given a regular role on both the PP unit and the PK units. His ES Scoring rate slipped but he was hot on the PP and he ended up with a higher overall scoring efficiency rate.

Defensemen Who Might Fly Under the Radar.

Two guys come to mind because they played on rosters that were very deep at defense. Ville Koistinen and Francis Bouillon. They each received easier ice time but the coaches on that team had great options. It is possible those two might be capable of handling more tough minutes and could be a good budget fit in Atlanta. I like the upside of both of these guys, but I am nervous about committing long term to a guy without being sure if he can really handle a larger role in the NHL on club that struggles with defensive hockey.

Why Didn't ____ Make Your List?

Too old: Adrian Aucoin 35; Francis Bouillon 33; Boucher 35; Brisbois 37; Chelios 46; Cullimore 36; De Vries 35; Gauthier 37; Hedian 38; Hall Gill 33; Hnidy 33; Klee 37; Malik 33; C. Murphy37: ~~S. Neidermayer 35;~~ Numminen 40; O'Donnell 37; Schneider 39; Seidenberg 35; Skrastins 34; Sydor 36; Zubov 38.

Not top four D on his own team: A. Alberts, M-A Bergeron, Bouillon, N. Boynton, Brisebois, Cullimore, K. Foster, Huskins, Kalinin, V. Koistinen, Leopold, McKee, Montador, C. Murphy, Oystrick, Semenov, Tollefsen, Vaananen, M. Walker.

Played lots of soft minutes: Tollefsen, Woywitka, Schneider, C. Murphy, Montador, Leopold, Koistinen, Huskins, Hnidy, Eminger, B. Bell, MA Bergeron, P. Bouher, F. Bouillon, N. Boynton, Brisebois, Chelios, Cullimore,

Short Veteran Contract Option

Most of the time older veterans look for playoff caliber teams and one last crack at winning the Stanley Cup. One potential exception to this might be Mathieu Schneider. If the Schneider family enjoyed their time in Atlanta I could imagine a scenario in which he might return to Hotlanta. In Anaheim Schneider was hidden by the coaching staff, but in 2009 he faced better quality opponents. His ES minutes fell along with a sharp decline in his even scoring rate. His PP rate actually improved from the year before.

Conclusion

If I were the Thrashers I think the best looking fit are the two former Wild defensemen, Shultz and Skoula. Greg Zanon could be a very affordable PK specialist. I also like Derek Morris quite a bit, but I suspect he will garner some pricely offers.

Antoine Harris And The Grand Opening Of Injury Season

Dave the Falconer — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:00:34 -0700

via www.atlantafalcons.com

Minor surgical procedure, my foot. This is a harbinger of doom!

Antoine Harris is a special teams ace who offers little on defense, and he just had surgery. He'll be out until training camp, which wouldn't be such a big deal if he wasn't the first domino in a seemingly endless line of falling Falcons. Terror grips me!

Now that I've either frightened or confused you, let me make my point clear. Injuries in the NFL are extremely bad news for any number of teams, and the Falcons have lost some reliable performers in recent years. As a Falcons fan, I've learned to tolerate a great deal of shaz that would bring a lesser man to his knees, but injuries absolutely kill me every time. Look at poor Trey Lewis, who might be competing for a starting job this year if fate hadn't taken a hammer to him. By mentioning my overwhelming fear, I'm hoping to work some kind of reverse jinx.

The question for all of y'all (keeping y'all in health) is who among guys who missed significant time due to injury last year will emerge and wreak havoc upon an unsuspecting league? Will it be Lewis, well-known dinosaur and offensive lineman Sam Baker, or someone else entirely? Click and clack your way to discussion-based victory.

Vote for Greatest Falcons TE of All Time

tlozwarlock — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:00:34 -0700

Here are your candidates for the All Time Falcons TE race...all three of them. Not much to choose from but the crop we have is good. They're pretty evenly matched in most categories, save Pro Bowl appearances. As always, click the players' names for their Pro-Football-Reference.com stat sheets and bios. Results on Friday.

Alge Crumpler (7 years): REC - 316, YDs - 4212, TDs - 38, YPR - 13.3, RYPG - 39.8, AWDs - 4 Pro Bowls (in a row, 03-06)
Junior Miller (4 years): REC - 114, YDs - 1328, TDs - 13, YPR - 11.6, RYPG - 23.7, AWDs - 2 Pro Bowls (in a row, 80-81)
Jim Mitchell (11 years): REC - 305, YDs - 4358, TDs - 28, YPR - 14.3, RYPG - 28.1, AWDs - 2 Pro Bowls (69 as rookie, 72)

Poll

Who is the greatest Falcons TE of all time?

Alge Crumpler

201 votes

Junior Miller

5 votes

Jim Mitchell

46 votes

252 votes | Poll has closed

Trey Thompkins update from New Zealand

Paul Westerdawg — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:44:00 -0700

Howard "Trey" Thompkins III is in New Zealand with Team USA's U19 team, and things are going well. The team played an international friendly upon arrival in New Zealand against Croatia and won 97-68.

Trey had seven points and seven rebounds in the game. Team USA Head Mentor Jamie Dixon (head coach at Pitt) said this about the team so far:

"I would say the thing that really stands out (about the USA team) is how different guys have impacted throughout and how it has changed constantly. I had a couple of people who have been through this who said that. Even just in practices from one day to the next, guys would change, different guys would step up and I think really that's going to be our strength. The strength of this team is we have 12 players top to bottom, that might be our advantage over some other teams.

"John Shurna today played really well today and he didn't play as much in our last scrimmage. Tyshawn Taylor played really well, so we've had different guys. Seth Curry has been our leading scorer, so has Howard Thompkins, but today I don't think they were and so we had different guys today. I think that again will be our strength and we've really stressed that as well through these 10 days, that we're going need all 12 guys to win every game and I think the guys are seeing that as well."

To learn that Trey is one of the leading scorers for a team like this through the practice sessions is promising. It'll be interesting to see how he performs as they get into more serious international play.

PWD

AJC.com - Q and A with Robert Hall

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0700

2009 NHL Free Agency: Defenseman - Advanced Stats

The Falconer — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 22:42:25 -0700

Intro:

Many fans, journalists and even NHL General Managers still rely on statistics that have been around when your grandfather watched the NHL. Traditional stats like Goals-Assists-Points (aka "boxcar" stats) pre-date World World Two and more recent additions like Plus/Minus became official stats in the 1960s.

When the NHL began monitoring player ice time in the 1997-1998 season it opened the door to a whole new world of more refined data analysis. It is now possible to move beyond the "box car stats" and break apart the chaotic action on the ice and look for patterns. Every player receives his share of good and bad bounces, but in the long run a great NHL player like Nick Lidstrom will tend to cause more positive outcomes than negative outcomes.

One of the holy grails of analysis in baseball and hockey is understanding and predicting defense at the team and individual player level. If you are a NHL GM bidding for the services of Free Agent or weighing a trade offer it could be quite useful to see if advanced stats can give you some additional insight into the player. That is what I will attempt to do in this post on the UFA NHL Defensemen.

The Data:

This table below portray two basic patterns. 1) PLAYER USAGE: How much ice time did the coach give the player in comparison to other defensemen in the NHL; 2) PLAYER SCORING EFFICIENCY: How effective was that defensemen in terms of scoring points while on the ice in that situation.

All defensemen who played at least half a NHL season (41 GP) receive a percentile ranking. The large numbers indicate that they ranked near the very top of the NHL in that category, low numbers near the very bottom. A blank space means that they either failed to play 41 NHL Games or in the case of special teams, they failed to receive a minimum of half a minute of PP or SH ice time per game.

EST% = Even Strength Time On Ice Percentile Ranking
PPT% = Power Play Time On Ice Percentile Ranking
EST% = Short Handed Time On Ice Percentile Ranking
TT% = Total Combined Time On Ice Percentile Ranking
Off/Def = Ratio of Offensive (PP) ice time to defensive (SH) Ice Time
ESR% = Even Strength Scoring Rate Efficiency Percentile Ranking
PPR% = Power Play Scoring Rate Efficiency Percentile Ranking
TTR% = Total Combined Scoring Rate Efficiency Percentile Ranking

How Can I Use These Numbers?

The Off/Def ratio shows you whether coaches have used this defenseman in a primarly offensive or defensive role. The higher the number the more offensive the role and vice versa. If you're shopping for a defensive defenseman you probably want to start with players who have a low Off/Def ratio.

The ice time percentile ranking show precisely how this player has been used in the last two seasons. If you GM goes and signs Dmitri Kalinin (TT% rankings of 25% and 28%) and claims in the news conference that he just signed a "top four" guy--well you and I both know he's either a) ignorant of where Kalinin ranks among all NHL defenseman or b) trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the home fans. Another example, if your team is shopping for help on the PK and they sign a defense who gets very little PK ice time--you should be very afraid.

The scoring rate numbers also let you peer through the fog with a bit more clarity. The will show which defensemen generate comparatively more points at ES and PP. Some defensemen wrack up a ton of PP points simply because they receivd mounds of PP ice time--but in truth they are not all the efficient (Jay Bouwmeester for example). On the other hand there are D who are very efficient on the PP but you might not notice because their coaching staff doesn't give them all that many minutes (Johnny Oduya for example). Here's a very simple test, compare a defenseman's PPT% to his PPR% if the Rate percentile number is bigger, that player may explode with more PP points if given a larger role on the PP unit.

Stats

Player	Year	EST%	PPT%	SHT%	TT%	Off/Def	ESR%	PPR%	TTR%
Pardy	2009	15%		7%	8%	0.96	49%		33%
Aucoin	2008	36%	83%	25%	61%	1.16	69%	67%	85%
Aucoin	2009	33%	87%	69%	72%	1.07	83%	20%	70%
Semenov	2008					1.01
Semenov	2009	5%		7%	4%	0.95	54%		45%
Alberts	2008					0.89
Alberts	2009	9%		50%	13%	0.85	43%		29%
Bell	2008					1.06
Bell	2009	27%	59%		28%	1.20	15%	87%	81%
Hedican	2008	67%	5%	30%	46%	0.92	77%	12%	52%
Hedican	2009	26%	10%	11%	18%	0.98	4%	37%	11%
Chelios	2008	8%		91%	21%	0.78	71%		37%
Chelios	2009					0.87
Murphy	2008	2%	80%		10%	1.36	40%	68%	91%
Murphy	2009					1.24
Tjarnqvist	2009					0.94
Sydor	2008	23%	36%	17%	28%	1.05	30%	13%	34%
Sydor	2009	30%	23%	30%	33%	0.98	39%	13%	34%
Gauthier	2009	4%		59%	6%	0.82	3%		1%
Seidenberg	2008	29%	46%	27%	41%	1.04	57%	61%	69%
Seidenberg	2009	66%	52%	55%	73%	1.01	79%	55%	71%
Morris	2008	63%	31%	75%	72%	0.94	25%	93%	54%
Morris	2009	57%	37%	35%	57%	1.01	32%	16%	43%
Kalinin	2008	22%	29%	13%	25%	1.05	21%	24%	35%
Kalinin	2009	31%	14%	25%	28%	0.97	61%	21%	46%
Kuba	2008	92%	69%	72%	92%	1.02	73%	35%	68%
Kuba	2009	49%	92%	53%	83%	1.11	51%	81%	85%
Bouillon	2008	30%		55%	26%	0.85	20%		10%
Bouillon	2009	21%		34%	18%	0.89	31%		28%
Beauchemin	2008	96%	54%	93%	95%	0.94	28%	23%	35%
Beauchemin	2009					0.89
De Vries	2008	55%		56%	42%	0.86	61%		38%
De Vries	2009	8%		32%	8%	0.88	4%		3%
Zanon	2008	24%		94%	36%	0.78	6%		4%
Zanon	2009	64%		94%	56%	0.82	11%		7%
Gill	2008	47%		97%	52%	0.78	93%		58%
Gill	2009	30%		77%	30%	0.82	38%		21%
Cullimore	2008	48%		45%	31%	0.87	65%		41%
Cullimore	2009	32%		30%	23%	0.89	20%		20%
Bouwmeester	2008	99%	67%	93%	99%	0.98	74%	50%	67%
Bouwmeester	2009	98%	87%	84%	99%	1.04	67%	54%	71%
McKee	2008	36%		61%	30%	0.84	36%		22%
McKee	2009	16%		80%	26%	0.81	11%		8%
Woywitka	2008					0.97
Woywitka	2009	42%	42%		36%	1.13	26%	44%	57%
Oduya	2008	49%	26%	18%	43%	1.04	81%	56%	74%
Oduya	2009	70%	11%	65%	56%	0.90	81%	67%	62%
Boychuk	2008					1.13
Boychuk	2009					1.02
Leopold	2008	20%	17%	3%	14%	1.05	93%	28%	75%
Leopold	2009	35%	35%	18%	36%	1.06	75%	8%	59%
Skrastins	2008	53%		54%	37%	0.86	8%		5%
Skrastins	2009	72%		78%	53%	0.85	54%		32%
Klee	2008	78%		52%	53%	0.88	18%		16%
Klee	2009	11%		31%	11%	0.89	43%		26%
Huskins	2008	28%		16%	15%	0.95	87%		63%
Huskins	2009					0.91
Foster	2008	13%	48%	2%	16%	1.14	60%	80%	81%
Foster	2009					1.08
Bergeron	2008	9%	79%		26%	1.28	11%	76%	80%
Bergeron	2009	10%	64%		23%	1.23	73%	74%	91%
Malik	2008	62%		53%	45%	0.87	77%		48%
Malik	2009	39%	10%	60%	40%	0.89	13%	0%	6%
Skoula	2008	81%		59%	56%	0.88	22%		15%
Skoula	2009	69%		58%	45%	0.88	35%		26%
Schneider	2008	69%	84%	12%	75%	1.18	95%	64%	94%
Schneider	2009	51%	74%	10%	58%	1.15	47%	71%	82%
Walker	2008	17%		30%	14%	0.88	3%		2%
Walker	2009	22%		41%	20%	0.87	61%		44%
Ohlund	2008	84%	66%	53%	87%	1.04	73%	63%	77%
Ohlund	2009	60%	44%	56%	66%	0.99	45%	29%	52%
Komisarek	2008	82%		77%	64%	0.85	60%		39%
Komisarek	2009	68%		83%	54%	0.84	16%		15%
Oystrick	2009	20%	3%	8%	12%	0.98	66%	62%	55%
Boynton	2008	28%		43%	22%	0.87	41%		28%
Boynton	2009	13%	25%	19%	19%	1.01	93%	15%	69%
Schultz	2008	70%		78%	54%	0.84	49%		30%
Schultz	2009	71%		81%	52%	0.84	7%		8%
Tollefsen	2008	1%		26%	1%	0.85	10%		12%
Tollefsen	2009					0.95
Vaananen	2009	31%		71%	31%	0.83	55%		40%
Brisebois	2008	21%	46%		20%	1.15	14%	72%	62%
Brisebois	2009	7%	51%		13%	1.20	69%	29%	66%
Mara	2008	21%	40%	24%	30%	1.04	66%	40%	64%
Mara	2009	23%	49%	33%	38%	1.04	18%	49%	56%
Boucher	2008					1.00
Boucher	2009	43%	38%	34%	46%	1.02	22%	18%	31%
Scuderi	2008	43%		74%	39%	0.83	6%		5%
Scuderi	2009	36%		93%	41%	0.80	60%		29%
Niedermayer	2008	64%	76%	83%	88%	1.02	48%	94%	84%
Niedermayer	2009	94%	83%	99%	98%	0.97	77%	93%	92%
O'Donnell	2008	16%		87%	24%	0.79	8%		11%
O'Donnell	2009	53%		96%	52%	0.81	20%		11%
Zubov	2008	85%	94%	65%	96%	1.10	96%	81%	97%
Zubov	2009					1.17
Hnidy	2008	9%		10%	6%	0.93	17%		20%
Hnidy	2009	16%	2%	11%	11%	0.96	52%	14%	36%
Eminger	2008					0.98
Eminger	2009	65%	32%	51%	67%	0.98	44%	79%	63%
Montador	2008	1%	22%		1%	1.11	98%	69%	94%
Montador	2009	14%	13%	20%	15%	0.98	90%	5%	62%
Numminen	2008					0.98
Numminen	2009	23%	29%	16%	26%	1.04	69%	52%	64%
Koistinen	2008	12%	70%		19%	1.26	40%	70%	82%
Koistinen	2009					1.23

Smoltz's solid effort lost in Boston's historic defeat

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:29:49 -0700

BALTIMORE (AP) — John Smoltz watched in disbelief as the Boston Red Sox wound up on the wrong end of the biggest comeback in Baltimore Orioles history.

Gordon Beckham Heats Up. Average now at .267

Paul Westerdawg — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:05:00 -0700

Gordon Beckham is now adjusting to the White Sox in a big way. During the Chicago White Sox's Monday and Tuesday games, Beckham combined to go 6 of 7 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 walk, and 1 stolen base.

On the season, he's hitting .267 with 2 HR and 13 RBI in 23 games. Considering he started out 2 for 28 (.071) thru his first 8 games, he's doing extremely well to have a .267 average now.

Tuesday night he was moved up in the order from 8th to 7th for the first time.

(Image: TheBeckettBlog)

Why do I keep coming back to Gordo? Because the one thing the baseball program lacks is a flagship Major Leaguer, and because...how can you not like the guy? He's the Diamond Dawg equivalent of David Pollack in terms of charisma and production in Athens.

PWD

Game 76 Recap: Phillies 4, Braves 5 in 10

gondeee — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:04:07 -0700

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Browse more photos »

The Braves scored a big win against the Phillies on Tuesday night, breaking Philadelphia's 9-game winning streak at Turner Field thanks to the late inning heroics by Martin Prado. After Mike Gonzalez had given up the lead on two solo homeruns in the eighth inning, Prado came through with a double to drive in the tying run. Then in extra innings, Prado came through again with runners on second and third by lacing a single over the drawn in outfield for the walk-off win.

Derek Lowe started a bit shakey and battled inconsistency all night, but he kept working through his troubles, and got some help from his defense, and held the Phillies to just two runs through six innings. The bullpen, except for Gonzalez, responded brilliantly, keeping the Braves close and allowing them to come back -- something they've been having trouble doing lately.

The middle of the order struggled for Atlanta, with just two hits combined from Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Garret Anderson, but it was the top of the order that did the damage as Gregor Blanco had three hits , including a triple, and Martin Prado had the first four-hit game of his career. It was great to see Prado come through in those tough situations -- he fits perfectly as the number-2 hitter for Atlanta. It's going to be tough to get him out of the lineup. Kelly Johnson may be relegated to backup duties for the foreseeable future.

Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar were both once again out of the lineup because of injuries. Bobby Cox gave McLouth an extra day to rest his hamstring, and Escobar may need more than a day to be at a point where his hip is no longer a problem.

Final - 6.30.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	10	2
Atlanta Braves	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	5	13	0
WP: Peter Moylan (2 - 2) LP: Chan Ho Park (3 - 2)

Complete Coverage >

Big night for Prado inches Braves closer to Phillies

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:45:18 -0700

Martin Prado played like a (utility) man on a mission Tuesday night for the Braves, and in the end he won more than just a 10-inning game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Steady Erosion of UGA Athletics?

Quinton McDawg — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:30:00 -0700

The final NACDA Learfield Sports Cup rankings came out Tuesday and the news isn't good for Dawg people. For those that don't know, the cup (it was once the Sears Cup, but is now sponsored by something called Learfield Sports) is the award for the best overall athletic performance by an NCAA athletic department. Each school's score is based on a system of point allocations. Points are given to each athletic program based on how their athletic teams finish in NCAA championships. Each program gets to take their top twenty performing teams, ten teams of each sex. Stanford, who fields an enormous amount of D-1 teams, always wins because they can usually pick twenty really good teams from their diverse portfolio. UGA, in comparison, has only 20 athletic teams and riding horses doesn't count in the standings.

Across the conference, however, the criteria are fairly equal. LSU has 19 sports teams and UF has 20, but one is women's lacrosse, which they haven't ever gotten points for. So, of the three SEC athletic programs which are consistently in the top 15 in the standings, all have the same number of sports, 19.

For the first half of the previous decade, UGA and UF were always fighting it out for the best SEC athletic program. From 1999 to 2005, these two schools were in a constant battle. UF held on to the conference crown in successive years only once. Other than those two years, it was an alternating honor between the two schools. LSU was a consistent third.

Since 2004, however, check out the trends:

That's disturbing for UGA as it illustrates a consistent erosion in overall athletic competitiveness. This year's finish sees us outside of the top 15 for the first time since 1997. Meanwhile, LSU has been on the opposite trajectory, rising for its first back-to-back top 10 finish.

So, what's the problem? Could it be Damon Evans, who assumed the reigns of the UGA athletic department on July 1, 2004? Or is that just a coincidence? Damon inherited Felton (the basketball program has garnered points only once during the decline), Andy Landers had his worst year in a long time last season, and it was an odd year for the baseball team. Most of this year's differential with LSU can be accounted for by two sports: track and basketball. Every other UGA team is within the general area of their 2004 performance (baseball was #3 in 2004, but we did get points this year). When UF and LSU are putting every team they have in postseason, UGA is going to fade fast with a couple of misses. That's just what happened this year.

Any year you finish in the top ten is a good year. This year's big drop isn't necessarily Damon's fault, but it should be a warning. UF and LSU are demanding and getting excellence from every program they field. We should do the same. I hate for UGA to be second in anything. I hate third even more.

Quinton

As luck would have it, Francoeur without 'turkey underwear'

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:40:46 -0700

Jeff Francoeur didn't wear his much-discussed "lucky underwear" with the turkeys on them to the ballpark Tuesday. The Braves right fielder said the Braves are 7-0 when he has worn them to the ballpark, including Sunday when they beat Boston 2-1 to avoid being swept.

Escobar, McLouth held out of Braves lineup

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:37:14 -0700

Shortstop Yunel Escobar and center fielder Nate McLouth were both in, then out, of the Braves' lineup for Tuesday night's series opener against Philadelphia.

Texas Linebacker Sergio Kindle Hits Like a Ton of Bricks.

MaconDawg — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00:18 -0700

Just ask the folks at the Jefferson West apartments in Austin. At some point early wednesday morning the senior Longhorn linebacker appears to have been texting behind the wheel and managed to drive into the apartment of UT student Ashley Zapata. Said her roommate "She would be dead if she had been sitting at her desk."

But, like most college students in Austin, she was not home at 1:30 a.m. on a wednesday morning. For this her parents should be thankful. If the poor girl were a student at Rice she might have been seriously injured. Kindle was not too seriously injured in the wreck to push his car out of the apartment and back down the street, then go home to get some rest, according to his lawya' Brian Roark. Actually, Roark appears to be a proper lawyer, quite possibly one hastily retained to explain things to the Austin authorities. Roark did just that, explaining that after the incident his client "knew he was hurt at the time and that he needed to go home and go to bed." Not call the cops. Not go to the E.R. Get some rest.

Now, "going home to get some rest" sounds a lot like "leaving the scene of a serious accident" to me. And I seem to recall hearing that going to sleep is about the worst thing a concussed person can do. Other than getting concussed again. It is the best thing you can do after a night of drinking. And Kindle has had a previous visit from the D.W.I. fairy (who, for reference, is a dead ringer for Jerry Glanville with a wand that looks a lot like a Pabst Blue Ribbon bottle), so at least so far as the Court of Public Opinion goes, this may not have been a great move. Put another way, I don't know what Kindle did, but I know what it sounds like. Amazingly, ESPN reports that leaving the scene of a vehicle/building collision may not be against the law in Texas. This is however the sort of thing that any self-respecting NFL GM in a post-Donte Stallworth world will likely place near the front of his mental rolodex. Al Davis on the other hand is intrigued by the young man's decisionmaking ability, and the various members of the Rankin Smith family may try to buy the Falcons back just for the chance to draft him. Assuming he's slow enough.

Now, as a Georgia football fan I cannot seriously chide any program for vehicular hijinx. Because in Athens we've dang near cornered the market. But really, the only reason for posting this is that it was a conspicuous excuse to also post a picture of Kindle's car*, precrash:

Hook 'em Horns, indeed.

And the absolute best part of the story? The piece de resistance? The car, at least according to one report, was registered to Kindle's father . . . . . . . . Johnny Walker.

What can I say? When the world of college sports serves up a high soft one, we here at Dawgsports like to swing from the heels. Until tomorrow, keep it between the lines Sergio, and . . .

Go 'Dawgs!!!

* Not really Sergio Kindle's car. Life couldn't possibly be that poetic. This is Mack Brown's car.

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