• Wales's pace a challenge for Italy
• Millennium roof to remain open

It should be fanciful, even for a country such as Wales who have a depressing tendency to jerk knees and change coaches the year before a World Cup, to say that Warren Gatland's job is under threat two years after he guided the men in red to a grand slam, but he needs a convincing result against Italy tomorrow afternoon to stop murmurs of discontent turning into anything more sinister.

Wales may have done more than any other side to haul this year's Six Nations above the forgettable, but they have been more slapdash than slick, giving away soft tries and showing a chronic lack of discipline. Gatland talked last November about breaking into the top five of the world rankings, but there is more chance of them dropping out of the top 10 after losing seven of their last 11 matches, excluding last summer's tour to North America, with the victories coming against Italy, Samoa, Argentina and Scotland.

"I am not hiding behind anything," Gatland said. "I am still very much at the front of this and remain very proud to be Wales' coach. I want not just to continue in the position but to show people I am passionate about it. I am frustrated because we have not executed what we are capable of as a side and I have been getting plenty of advice. It has been tough but I am not going to crawl away."

Gatland has been undermined by injuries that have deprived him, at various times, of eight of last summer's Lions. Mike Phillips and Gethin Jenkins are making their first starts in this Six Nations and it will be the first time the front row has played together since the second Test between the Lions and South Africa in Pretoria last June.

A lack of depth in certain positions has been exposed but Gatland has also been eccentric in some of his selections. The choice of the left-footed Tom James on the right wing at Twickenham backfired, the out-of-form Gareth Cooper played in the opening two games, hauled off at half-time against Scotland, Deiniol Jones did not justify his surprise inclusion against France and the 18-year-old wing Tom Prydie will make his debut tomorrow afternoon having started just two matches for the Ospreys.

Gatland has persisted with playing James Hook at outside-centre. While it worked against England and Scotland, his lack of experience in the position told against France and, especially, Ireland. Given the way the game is moving away from the safety-first tactics that predominated after the introduction of the experimental law variations, and not just in the Super 14, Wales should consider returning him to outside-half.

Hook started there under Gatland, but was deemed to be too uncommunicative to be properly effective. A player who relies on instinct rather than routine, he was considered a risk in the age of austerity but if Wales are to maximise their attacking potential, they need him closer to the action; neither has playing Jamie Roberts at inside-centre worked, even though he won the man of the series with the Lions in the position.

He had Brian O'Driscoll with him then and he is a more natural outside-centre, strong in the challenge and blessed with the pace of a wing. Wales's game is not revolving around Roberts at 12, as it should, and they have struggled to bring their back three into a game until they are chasing in the second half.

Italy have asked for the roof to be open tomorrow as rain is forecast, with their coach, Nick Mallett, admitting that they cannot play at Wales's pace. They have been forced to make three changes from the side selected with the centre Andrea Masi joining the forwards Carlo del Fava and Paul Derbyshire in pulling out. They will look to frustrate Wales and the home side will need to show more shape and coherence if they are to equal last year's finishing position of fourth.

Wales: Byrne; Prydie, Hook, Roberts, Williams; S Jones, Phillips; Jenkins, Rees, A Jones, Davies, Charteris, Thomas, Warburton, R Jones (capt).

Replacements: Bennett, James, Gough, Delve, Peel, Bishop, Shanklin.

Italy: McLean; Robertson, Canale, Garcia, Mirco Bergamasco; Gower, Canavosio; Perugini, Ghiraldini (capt), Castrogiovanni, Del Fava, Geldenhuys, Derbyshire, Mauro Bergamasco, Zanni.

Replacements: Ongaro, Aguero, Bortolami, Sole, Tebaldi, Bocchino, Pratichetti.

England travel to France this weekend for the final fixture of the Six Nations tournament.

• Ireland rated at 50-1 to win Six Nations
• Victory would earn fifth triple crown in seven years

What are the prospects of a miracle at Croke Park tomorrow afternoon? Well, a bookie or a heretic might say Ireland's chances of snatching the Six Nations championship from France's tight grip are about as likely as the baby Jesus descending from the clouds to bless this farewell match on the borrowed Gaelic turf before the rugby boys return to Lansdowne Road.

First, the Irish have the small task of putting 30 points between themselves and last-placed Scotland. Then they must watch their friends across the water do to France what they themselves palpably failed to do on their visit to Paris in round two – that is, play some rugby and beat the French, preferably by 20 points. Easy, say the optimists.

England, after all, have bested France four games straight, including last year at Twickenham when, in a start worthy of Usain Bolt, they rattled up 34 points without reply. And Ireland go head-to-head with the Scots as clear favourites again. Their biggest win over the visitors was 44-22 10 years ago, the largest margin 36-6 in 2003. This is their era, their time.

Realists, though, will recognise this as dangerous speculation. Indeed, making up the 50-point aggregate differential in any outlandish combination a desperate gambler could imagine looks like no more than a trap for callow dreamers.

Declan Kidney, no fantasist, knows his team have rediscovered their rhythm and swagger too late and a more reasonable goal is to secure their fifth triple crown in seven years. After Ireland had produced their best rugby of the campaign to slaughter poor Wales last weekend, their coach looked forward to the Scotland game as no more than "a one-off Test match", conscious perhaps that Ireland can explode when the nation gets too excited.

Yet it says everything about the rapid development of the team in the professional era that they can even talk about dominating the home unions given they had swept the other three nations only five times before this spectacular run, success separated by 49 years and then 33 years.

This is clearly the best Ireland team of them all, with the best player of them all, Brian O'Driscoll, relieved to have his sidekick Gordon D'Arcy passed fit today to partner him in the centres. With Geordan Murphy reinstalled now at 15 and Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls fairly flying on both wings, this may be the most exciting back line in rugby, certainly in the northern hemisphere. They surely have the measure of a team who lost to Italy.

The triple crown is where Earls has set his cap, this week describing merely being in a position to win it again as "surreal".

And Mick Galwey, the former Ireland and Lions lock of legend, warned: "If their back row clicks, we're in trouble. Against Wales, we were very professional. But this is a good Scottish pack. I don't think we will dominate them the way we did Wales. We will have to play a controlled game. If it gets into a Barbarian-style game, Scotland can do anything."

As they proved in getting the better of a draw against England at Murrayfield last Saturday. That Scotland team, but for Dan Parks hitting the post twice, would be arriving in Dublin with the buzz of victory in their veins rather than what might be end-of-term ennui. They do have, as Galwey observes, the ability to capitalise on broken-play indiscipline.

There is also the small matter of Ireland getting their third South African referee in a row, this time Jonathan Kaplan. How he interprets infamous Law 15.5c – that niggling, baffling interpretation that allows players to engage in a fight for the ball, then pat their opponents on the backside and walk away – could kill the game altogether.

So, let's stop dreaming. (The best price about Ireland's keeping the title, by the way, although still ludicrously uncharitable, is 50-1 from Paddy Power.)

Advertising blitz sees image of freshly stitched wound go on billboards and posters across Paris prior to crucial rugby game

English rugby fans travelling to Paris this weekend will be greeted by a Nike advertising blitz featuring the word "Hello" stitched over a fresh wound. The unsightly welcome comes as the French aim to see off England to win the Grand Slam in the final Six Nations 2010 match.

The ad, by Wieden & Kennedy Amsterdam for Nike France Rugby, will feature on billboards and posters plastered through out Paris's Gare du Nord rail station - the main arrival point for England supporters.

Nike's campaign, which features the line "France welcomes her English friends", will also feature heavily around the Stade de France and on bus shelters and at stations en route to the stadium. Ads will also be running all weekend in L'Equipe newspaper.

"The word 'Hello' created from a freshly stitched wound will stick in the minds of the French fans and in the minds of the English players who will see it on their journey from Gare du Nord to the stadium," said W&K art director Craig Williams.

W&K Amsterdam added that the "raw and graphic photography and art direction illustrates the 'souvenirs' the French players will leave their English opponents with after the match".

If France wins the match, which also marks the 100th anniversary of the first clash between the two nations, W&K has plans to run further surprise tactical ads.

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