Want to know where the St Louis real estate market is headed? Check out my 2012 St Louis Real Estate market forecast here.

For a recap of the 2011 St Louis Real Estate Market click here.

The Do’s

• Do provide any documentation to your mortgage banker when requested in a timely manner.
• Do keep making all financial obligations on-time (credit cards, car loans, etc.)
• Do provide proof that your earnest money deposit has cleared your bank (cancelled check, bank statement).
• Do set up your homeowner’s insurance and provide your mortgage banker with your insurance agent’s contact information.
• Do notify your mortgage banker if there are any changes to your sales price and please notify him or her when you receive a closing date from the builder/seller.
• Do ask questions and be informed.
• Do be up front with your mortgage banker.

The Don’ts

• Don’t apply, open or co-sign for any new credit lines or have your credit pulled unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.
• Don’t make any large non-payroll deposits into your bank accounts unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.
• Don’t quit or change jobs unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.
• Don’t make any large cash advances/charges on your credit cards unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.
• Don’t take it personally if you’re requested to provide additional information about your income or deposits. All information will be kept completely confidential.
• Don’t bounce any checks or allow your checking/savings balance to have a negative balance.
  

St. Louis MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES for February 2, 2012:

• Conventional 30-Year Fixed 3.875%/ 4.070% APR
• Conventional 15-Year Fixed 3.00%/ 3.240% APR
• Conventional 5/1 ARM 2.375%/ 3.082% APR
• FHA/VA 30 Year Fixed 3.750%/ 3.991% APR
• Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.75%/ 3.01% APR
• Jumbo 15 yr Fixed 3.375%/ 3.630% APR
• Jumbo 30 yr Fixed 4.750%/ 5.010% APR

*The above mortgage rates are based upon an 80% LTV, o/o single family with FICO scores of 720.

Paramount Mortgage is a locally owned Mortgage Banker celebrating our 41^st year. Great rates and programs are secondary to what is most desired in a lender relationship: Integrity, Communication and Customer Satisfaction. Be to check out our website: www.paramountmortgage.com

For more information or if you have questions on mortgage rates you may contact me by phone at my direct line, (314) 372-4319, email at rfishel@paramountmortgage.com or you can visit our company website at http://www.paramountmortgage.com.

As the mortgage industry continues to adjust to new financial regulations, it is more important than ever to ensure that the financing (or refinancing) of your home goes smoothly. Your loan approval is subject to the financial information you provide at the time of your loan approval. Any subsequent changes in your financial situation before the actual date of closing could jeopardize your loan approval and delay your closing.

As part of Paramount Mortgage Company’s loan quality control, we undertake credit, income and employment verification checks immediately prior to your closing date. The entire Paramount Mortgage team wants your home purchase to be an enjoyable experience. By following the simple guidelines below, you are assured a smooth and error-free closing.

The Do’s

√ Do provide any documentation to your mortgage banker when requested in a timely manner.

√ Do keep making all financial obligations on-time (credit cards, car loans, etc.)

√ Do provide proof that your earnest money deposit has cleared your bank (cancelled check, bank statement).

√ Do set up your homeowner’s insurance and provide your mortgage banker with your insurance agent’s contact information.

√ Do notify your mortgage banker if there are any changes to your sales price and please notify him or her when you receive a closing date from the builder/seller.

√ Do ask questions and be informed.

√ Do be up front with your mortgage banker.

The Don’ts

√ Don’t apply, open or co-sign for any new credit lines or have your credit pulled unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.

√ Don’t make any large non-payroll deposits into your bank accounts unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.

√ Don’t quit or change jobs unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.

√ Don’t make any large cash advances/charges on your credit cards unless you consult with your mortgage banker first.

√ Don’t take it personally if you’re requested to provide additional information about your income or deposits. All information will be kept completely confidential.

√ Don’t bounce any checks or allow your checking/savings balance to have a negative balance.

Have you ever thought about the similarities between houses and the human body? For example as our bodies age, things are not quite as straight, square and firm as they once were in our younger years. At one time I had a 44 inch chest and now with age it seems that chest dimension is closer to my waist line. In most cases, this aging in homes translates into floors not being totally level and windows and doors being skewed slightly or not latching. While this may create slight operational issues these conditions are quite common in older homes, some more so than others depending on the age, floor plan, design etc. While one could, in theory go through and re-level the floors, in my opinion in most cases this would be an unnecessary expense and cause additional problems. Quite frankly many look at these conditions as part of the “character” and “charm” of an older home.

The water and waste piping in the home has some similarities to the blood vessels in our bodies. Many older homes are built with galvanized steel piping. As it ages, it becomes clogged not allowing
full flow similar to what cholesterol does creating blockage in the arteries. As the pipes ages, it
gets to a point where little or no flow passes and the piping needs to be replaced. A house with this type of piping still in operation should be observed with all of the plumbing fixtures operating at the same time. In some cases, you will find, particularly in two story houses that little of no flow exists at some of the fixtures necessitating some water pipe replacement which can be costly. The other option is you only use a limited number of fixtures at one time. Quite frankly some occupants are accustomed to this or it works into their routine and causes little stress in their lives. This however may not be comfortable, realistic or acceptable for a new owner.

On the other side of the plumbing we as humans have issues with our digestive tract as we age and the piping carrying the waste from the home also experience issues such as holes in the pipes or barnacles which are small piles of rust on the pipe (created by pin holes in the pipe from the inside out). As the number of barnacles increase and leakage occurs pipe replacement will be necessitated.

As we age we may have some typical health issues colds, aching joints, pulled muscles, broken bones, etc. Houses can also have some of the same common issues (e.g. broken joists, joints on decks and other components working loose, etc). As with humans who go to the doctor to get advice, periodic physical exams, in some cases more in depth testing and maybe some corrective procedure, houses are similar in that we should periodically check things over and have technical personnel service the equipment. In some cases the equipment wears out and has to be replaced. If equipment is well maintained, it operates more efficiently and will generally last longer.

One other analogy, which I can relate well to, is this. As roofing shingles age, the surface covering on the shingles is lost, much the same as when I age the surface covering on my head (hair) seems to leave. Boy can I relate to this analogy. It seems the hair on my head has come and mostly gone. The hair protects the head from the sunlight and the roofing protects the house from the elements. While the shingles can be replaced it is not as easy to replace the hair (and yes I am familiar with hair pieces and implants). Of course there are those who say bald is beautiful (obviously not anyone who is bald).

The house has many components. Our knowledge of these components has increased over the years. There have been changes in the codes for installation and/or safety. There are many new products on the market which have better or different operational features increasing comfort, higher efficiencies and that allow for less resource use. Lumber sizes have changed over the years and now are designed to carry loads specified in the updated codes. This allows the use of materials to change the designs and create more open spaces.

The next time you look at a home think of yourself and others you know and consider the similarities. Act accordingly with service, maintenance and upkeep to the home just as you would by going to the doctor with an ailment for your body.

About the author:

Gerry is a licensed Professional Engineer in four states; Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Kansas. He first began his home inspection career in 1976 and has been active in ASHI (American Society of Home Inspectors) since 1978. In fact, Gerry’s membership number in ASHI is 87 compared with most of the memberships numbers which are in the 1,000′s. Gerry has performed over 16,000 inspections. Gerry can be reached by email at gloesch@bpgwi.com or by phone 314-249-8370.

Unfortunately, the St Louis mortgage delinquency rate, the precursor to foreclosures,  increased in November rising to 4.94 percent from 4.87 percent the month and marking the fifth-consecutive month of increases.  The St Louis mortgage delinquency rate was, however, down from a year ago, when the rate was 5.14 percent.

Source: CoreLogic.

Source: CoreLogic.

Until recently, home ownership was no bargain compared to renting, according to Paul Diggle, a housing economist at Capital Economics.

Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and published statistics from Thomson Datastream indicate that rising rents and falling mortgages are tipping the scales towards home ownership.  The median monthly mortgage payment has fallen to about the same as a median monthly rent check.

Several economic factors have converged at the beginning of 2012 presenting a strong financial incentive for renters to buy a home. The combination of a drop in home prices, mortgage rates hitting all time lows and rents increasing due to demand creates a perfect argument to taking the plunge and buying a home.

Much of the decision to buy a house still depends on personal finances, career, family life or level of financial security and commitment.  The prospective homeowner should be sure to take into account the total cost of owning by including maintenance, insurance and property taxes, tax savings from mortgage deductions.

Falling home prices combined with record low interest rates and rising rents may soon prompt renters to take a second look at buying.

St. Louis MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES for January 18, 2012:

• Conventional 30-Year Fixed 4.00%/ 4.190% APR
• Conventional 15-Year Fixed 3.125%/ 3.380% APR
• Conventional 5/1 ARM 2.500%/ 3.159% APR
• FHA/VA 30 Year Fixed 3.875%/ 4.085% APR
• Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.75%/ 3.01% APR
• Jumbo 15 yr Fixed 3.625%/ 3.875% APR
• Jumbo 30 yr Fixed 4.875%/ 5.125% APR

*The above mortgage rates are based upon an 80% LTV, o/o single family with FICO scores of 720.

Paramount Mortgage is a locally owned Mortgage Banker celebrating our 41^st year. Great rates and programs are secondary to what is most desired in a lender relationship: Integrity, Communication and Customer Satisfaction. Be to check out our website: www.paramountmortgage.com

For more information or if you have questions on mortgage rates you may contact me by phone at my direct line, (314) 372-4319, email at rfishel@paramountmortgage.com or you can visit our company website at http://www.paramountmortgage.com.

Want to know where the St Louis real estate market is headed?  Check out my 2012 St Louis Real Estate market forecast here.

For a recap of the 2011 St Louis Real Estate Market click here.

The supply of new homes on the market increased to a 6.1 month supply from 6.0 months the month before. The median new home price increased 6.3 percent for the month to $266,000 from a revised median price of $250,300 the month before but decreased 9.3 percent from a year ago when the median new home price was $291,700..

My Mantra

As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of the market.

Here is the raw data, the ACTUAL new homes sold- no fluff, no “adjusting” For December 2011:

•  2,000 new homes sold, down from 22,000 the month before and down from 23,000 a year ago.
• As usual, the South had the majority of the new home sales with 12,000 this month (57.1 percent of the total in US)
• the west region had 4,000 new homes sold.
• the Midwest had 4,000 new homes sold.
• The Northeast had 2,000 new homes sold.

• 2011 comes to a close with a total of 302,000 homes sold – The lowest number of new homes sold since the Commerce Department began keeping records in 1963.
• New Homes in the US in sold during the month been for sale for a median time of 6.7 months since the homes were completed, down from 7.3 months the month before.

I called it a year ago -

Throughout 2011 I was forecasting that there would be 290,000 – 319,000 new homes sold in 2011….. The actual number was 302,000 almost smack-dab in the middle of my forecast….hmm, not bad for just a plain old real estate guy that’s not a PhD.   

What’s in store for 2012?

Well, this one is a tough one….While I am confident we are going to see an increase in home sales from 2011, I’m just not thinking it’s going to be much.   On the good side of things, mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosure rates are trending downward and new home inventories are declining however, on the bad side, prices are still depressed to the point that there is a significant premium for a new home.  Therefore, I’m going to forecast a modest increase and am expecting to see somewhere between 304,000 – 334,000 new homes sold in 2012.

St. Louis foreclosure

Over 13 percent of all home sales in St. Louis during 3rd quarter 2011 were foreclosures and , on average, they sold for a discount of over 60 percent compared with non-foreclosure sales.

Foreclosure Price 34 Percent Below Average Price of Non-Foreclosures

RealtyTrac, today released its third-quarter 2011 U.S. Foreclosure Sales Report, which shows that sales of homes that were in some stage of foreclosure or bank owned accounted for 20 percent of all U.S. residential sales in the third quarter of 2011, down from 22 percent of all sales in the second quarter and down from 30 percent of all sales in the third quarter of 2010.
To find foreclosures in your area click here.

Foreclosure home prices increase slightly during the quarter, down from a year ago…

The average sales price of homes in foreclosure or bank owned was $165,322 in the third quarter, up 1 percent from the previous quarter but down 3 percent from the third quarter of 2010. The average sales price of these foreclosure-related sales was 34 percent below the average sales price of homes not in foreclosure, matching the 34 percent foreclosure discount in the second quarter but below the 37 percent discount in the third quarter of 2010.

“While foreclosures continue to represent an excellent bargain-buying opportunity for many buyers and investors, foreclosure sales accounted for a smaller share of the total market in the third quarter. That trend is not too surprising given the continued ambiguity surrounding proper foreclosure procedures — and the ripple effect that has on sales of foreclosed properties that might have been improperly foreclosed,” said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “The sooner the market gets more clarity about accepted foreclosure procedures, primarily through the long-promised settlement between multiple states attorneys general and major lenders, the sooner the market can more efficiently dispose of these distressed properties.

“Even with the hurdles to selling foreclosures, foreclosure sales continue to represent a historically high percentage of all sales,” Moore continued. “In 2005 and 2006, foreclosure sales consistently accounted for less than 5 percent of all sales nationwide.”

Pre-foreclosure sales flat from year ago, REO sales down
A total of 92,824 pre-foreclosure homes — in default or scheduled for auction — sold to third parties in the third quarter, a decrease of 9 percent from the previous quarter and nearly identical to the 92,967 pre-foreclosure sales in the third quarter of 2010. Pre-foreclosure sales accounted for nearly 9 percent of all sales, the same as in the second quarter, but down from 12 percent of all sales in the third quarter of 2010.

Pre-foreclosure sales increased more than 30 percent on an annual basis in Michigan (up 68 percent), North Carolina (up 44 percent), Ohio (up 43 percent) and Georgia (up 35 percent). Pre-foreclosure sales outnumbered REO sales in several states in the third quarter, including Colorado, Florida, New Jersey and New York.

Pre-foreclosures, which are often sold via short sale, had an average sales price nationwide of $191,119, a discount of 24 percent below the average sales price of homes not in foreclosure. That was up from the 23 percent discount in the previous quarter and matched the 24 percent discount in the third quarter of 2010. Pre-foreclosures that sold in the third quarter took an average of 318 days to sell after receiving an initial foreclosure notice, up from an average of 245 days in the second quarter and average of 236 days in the third quarter of 2010.

A total of 128,712 bank-owned (REO) homes sold to third parties in the third quarter, down 13 percent from the second quarter and down nearly 8 percent from the third quarter of 2010. REO sales accounted for nearly 12 percent of all sales in the third quarter, down from 13 percent of all sales in the previous quarter and down from nearly 18 percent of all sales in the third quarter of 2010.

Nationally, REOs had an average sales price of $146,437 in the third quarter, a discount of nearly 42 percent below the average sales price of homes not in foreclosure. That matched a 42 percent discount on REOs in the second quarter, but was down from a 45 percent discount in the third quarter of 2010. REOs that sold in the third quarter took an average of 193 days to sell after being foreclosed on, up from 178 days in the second quarter and 161 days in the third quarter of 2010.

Nevada, California and Arizona post highest percentage of foreclosure sales
Foreclosure-related sales accounted for nearly 57 percent of all residential sales in Nevada during the third quarter, the highest percentage of any state. Third parties purchased a total of 13,992 homes in foreclosure or bank owned in Nevada during the third quarter, nearly identical to the 13,858 foreclosure-related sales in the previous quarter, but up 24 percent from the third quarter of 2010.

Third parties purchased a total of 62,583 homes in foreclosure or bank owned in California, representing nearly 44 percent of the state’s total residential property sales in the third quarter — the second highest percentage of any state. Foreclosure-related sales in California decreased nearly 7 percent from the previous quarter but were up 7 percent from the third quarter of 2010.

Arizona foreclosure-related sales accounted for 43 percent of all sales in the state, the third highest percentage of any state. Third parties purchased a total of 21,619 homes in foreclosure or bank owned in Arizona during the quarter, down nearly 14 percent from the previous quarter, but up 19 percent from the third quarter of 2010.

Other states where foreclosure-related sales accounted for at least 20 percent of all sales included Georgia (34 percent), Colorado (26 percent) and Michigan (23 percent).

Due to a nearly 30 percent decrease from the previous year, Florida foreclosure-related sales in the third quarter accounted for 19 percent of all sales in the state — down from 39 percent of all sales in the third quarter of 2010.

Not all details are available yet, and we will continue evaluating the agreement as it becomes available. Based on current information, we are pleased to see a number of key reforms, including:

No more robo-signing . Banks would agree that key foreclosure documents will be individually reviewed as required by law.

End of many servicing abuses . The banks would agree to adopt many practices that will result in better communication, fewer delays, and fairer treatment for homeowners who are late on house payments.

More sustainable loan modifications . The settlement would require banks to get serious about reducing the principal balances on mortgages for struggling homeowners, possibly preventing hundreds of thousands of unnecessary foreclosures.

Banks remain accountable . While the state AGs would not be able to bring additional origination or servicing claims against the participating banks, the settlement would preserve the ability of homeowners to pursue claims against banks. Moreover, the settlement would not shield banks from prosecution related to criminal activities, claims based on mortgage securities violations, fair lending suits, or claims against MERS. Finally, the settlement would be enforceable in court by an independent monitor.

This settlement would wrap up a year-long investigation focused on robo-signing and other abusive and fraudulent practices by mortgage servicers. This action is a crucial to containing the damaging effects of foreclosures on our economy, but it is only one response—and one that is necessarily limited by legal and practical restraints. Addressing the massive foreclosure crisis requires additional policy actions on multiple fronts.

More than 20,000 new families face foreclosure each month, including a disproportionate percentage of African-American and Latino households. CRL research indicates that we are only about halfway through the crisis.

For more information: Kathleen Day at (202) 349-1871 or kathleen.day@responsiblelending.org; Ginna Green at (510) 379-5513 or ginna.green@responsiblelending.org;

The ten most searched metro areas for December, based upon the Realtor.com report, were:

1. Chicago, Ill
2. Detroit, MI
3. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
4. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
5. Atlanta, GA
6. Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
7. Philadelphia, PA
8. Dallas, TX
9. Las Vegas, NV
10. Orlando, FL

St Louis home sales in December increased 2.3 percent from the month before and were up 3.3 percent from a year ago.  The increase in St Louis home sales follows suit with the trend in U.S. home sales as reported today by the National Association of REALTORS® which shows existing home sales in December were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.61 million units, an increase of 5.0 percent from the month before and an increase of 3.6 percent from a year ago.

St Louis Home prices decline to lowest point since January 2011….

While home prices in the U.S. were on the rise in December, increasing 2.3 percent from the month before, St. Louis home prices fell slightly in December to a median price of $115,000, down from $116,000 the month before.  St. Louis home prices declined almost 13 percent (12.9) from December 2010 when the median home price was $132,000 while U.S. home prices declined only 2.5 percent during the same period.

Inventory of Homes for sale approaching “normal” levels….

Currently, there are 11,483 active listings in the St Louis areas included in my report (City of St Louis and Counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) which, based upon December’s sales, works out to a 6.18 month supply which is getting close to what the inventory should be in a “normal” market.  On a national level the supply is 6.2 months.

Data includes City of St. Louis and Counties of St. Louis, St. Charles, Jefferson and Franklin. Source: MARIS.

The last couple of months I have said that, “unless something changes dramatically, 2011 will hit a new record low of new home starts. Unfortunately, nothing dramatic happened, and 2011 has ended with only 428,600 new home starts setting a new record low and significantly below the prior all-time low of 445,200 starts in 2009.

The good news is, the pace is picking up…

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for December 2011 showing an increase in single-family home building permits from the month before of 1.8 percent and a 4.4 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before.

Highlights from the December 2011 Report:

• Building permits issued for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 44,000 homes which is 1.8 percent above the prior month and a decrease of 0.2 percent from a year before.
• Housing starts for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 470,000 which is an increase of 4.4 percent from the prior month and an increase of 11.6 percent from a year before.
• Homes completed were at an annual rate of 448,000 homes, which is a decrease of 0.9 percent from the prior month and a decrease of 1.3 percent from a year before.

As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for the current month versus the a year before. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:

• For 2011 there were 413,700 permits issued for new homes compared with 447,300 the prior year for a decrease of 7.5 percent.
• For 2011 there were 428,600 new homes started compared with 471,200 the prior year for a decrease of 9.0 percent.
• For 2011 there were 444,900 new homes completed compared with 496,300 the prior year for a decrease of 10.4 percent.

Clearly, for as long as foreclosures continue to put downward pressure on home prices and result in existing homes selling for much less than the cost of new construction, we are not going to see a recovery in the new home market.  At the rate we are going, while I expect to see an increase in new home construction and sales in 2012, I think it will probably be as much as 5 years or more before we see signs of a sustainable recovery in the new home market.  The silver lining is, as the inventory of new homes continues to decline and not be replaced, once demand picks up there is a likelihood in many markets that demand will exceed supply for a while making for somewhat of a robust market.