Stadium and Main

Now that the dust has settled...

2009-01-10T14:00:00.004-05:00

The Bowl thing

So the Big Ten had the worst bowl season of any BCS team in the BCS era. I’m sure we won’t hear anything about that from the national media. I kid. But seriously, I am consistently amazed at how the media continually overlooks the strength of the Big Ten’s bowl schedule.

Yes, the Big Ten was down this year. But over the long haul, they really should be losing the majority of their bowl games given the circumstances/schedule. If there ever comes a time when the Big Ten is winning 75% of its bowl games over a 5 year period, then that means they’re dominating college football. The Big Ten consistently plays more of the best teams from the best BCS conferences (read: not the ACC or Big East) than any other conference, and plays many of them in de facto road games.

I have to laugh at some conferences’ bowl schedules. Lets see… the Big East’s 2nd place team (Pitt) got to play Oregon State. Our 2nd place team (Ohio State) got to play Texas. If you tell me those two games are equivalent, you’re insane. And it’s the same thing, year in and year out with the Big Ten – all the way down the schedule. But nobody ever takes the time to look at the schedules, they just see the wins and losses. Think about this: the Big Ten played USC, Georgia, and Missouri, all of which were TOP FIVE teams in many polls to start the season. And that doesn’t include Texas, which was Top 10 (and has a legitimate argument, like USC, that it deserves a share of the National Title). That’s nuts. I know that some of those teams didn’t live up to expectations, but they are all very good teams. Think about the experienced NFL-level talent on those 4 teams I just listed, especially at the skill postions – it’s impressive. No wonder the Big Ten lost those games.

The depth of the Big Ten’s bowl schedule is always crazy. This year, we had 7 bowl teams. We played 3 Big 12 teams (Texas, Mizzou, Kansas), 2 SEC teams (Georgia, South Carolina), 1 Pac-10 team (USC) and 1 ACC team (FSU). There are no patsies there; there are no Nevadas or Navys or Buffalos or Louisiana Techs. And some of those games were essentially on the road. I can’t understand how people continually overlook this. Yes I can, it’s because people are stupid.

TP

No, Terrelle Pryor is not very accurate, but he’s already pretty good. He’s going to be very good, primarily because of his athleticism. His effortless scrambling is Vince Young-esque. He’s going to drive the Big Ten crazy for at least 2 more years. One thing that bothers me, as a football “purist,” is how he often runs out of bounds without regard to the first down marker. If I remember correctly, he ran out of bounds 2 yards short of the first down on a 2nd and long play in the first half vs. Texas, when he seemingly could have maintained balance and reached the marker, or even dove for the first down. He did this a few other times when extra yards were there for the taking. That sort of nonchalant mentality isn’t necessarily frustrating because it seems like Pryor isn’t giving full effort; it’s mainly frustrating because it seems as if it doesn’t matter. As in, it doesn’t matter if he stops short on one play because he’s probably going to burn you on the next one. I might be giving the guy too much credit too soon, but he has that rare ability to gain 15 yards with his legs whenever he darn well pleases. Those who think he has no future as an accurate passer should compare his first-year stats to those of Vince Young and Troy Smith. Those guys stunk even worse, but improved. That’s not a guarantee of success, but it’s also not good sign for non-OSU fans.

A word on in-state recruiting

Bottom line: If Michigan State ends up with a class that the websites say is about 20th, on average, and Michigan ends up with a class that is about 10th, then MSU can “own” the state of Michigan in recruiting for all I care. Michigan is going to get most of the guys it wants in-state, and MSU can “lock down” the rest. When you’re MSU, you need those guys from Saginaw or Kalamazoo or wherever – guys who are solid Big Ten players but maybe not superstars. When you’re Michigan, and you are beating Florida and Miami for some of the best recruits in the Sunshine State, you can afford to be a bit more selective, and you can even afford to lose a few 4-star types to your in-state rival. Looking at it from another angle, if there ever comes a time when Michigan has more in-state players on its roster than MSU, we’re in trouble. The state produces decent talent, but in general, better talent can be had elsewhere. Michigan can usually get that talent, Michigan State usually can’t. So while the Detroit media buys into MSU’s spin that the Spartans signing more Michiganders is bad news for Michigan, here’s the deal: It really isn’t.

Other Things

- The college football off-season is the longest in recent memory this coming year, thanks to a calendar quirk. Whereas the season usually starts in late August or the first few days of September, we’ll have to wait until September 5, 2009 for the first full Saturday of games. Just a few extra days for the media to write glowing, factually-sound articles about Rich Rodriguez, right?

- Tulane is the real national champion.

- The Michigan Stadium Renovation site has a nifty map that allows you to view a few web cams monitoring the construction. Click on the red text on the map to see the progress. 3 of the 5 are pointed at the Stadium.

- I strongly urge you to attend the Spring Game at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, April 11th. Check out the construction progress, see new QB Tate Forcier and the other early enrollees, and support the team. Go Blue!

Enough Already

2008-10-16T20:12:00.002-04:00

I haven’t posted much this season, which is probably a good thing. But after reading and hearing some of the things that were said after the Toledo loss, I had to chime in with my two cents: Everybody chill out.

If you’re nervous about the Rodriguez regime, frustrated by our lackluster performance thus far, or simply mad that we lost to a MAC team, please take some time to read this. Then bookmark it and re-read it after our next loss. Then go outside and enjoy some nice fall weather.

Relax. We are going to be fine.

The Bowl Streak

Michigan’s nation-leading consecutive bowl game streak will likely end this season, and that stinks. But it isn’t the worst thing in the world. Let me list some teams that recently missed bowl games, and the years they have missed them (since 1990):

USC – 2000, 1999, 1997, 1996, and 1991
Ohio State – 1999
Oklahoma – 1998, 1997, 1996, and 1995
Georgia – 1996, 1994, 1993, and 1990
Alabama – 2003, 2002, 2000, 1997, and 1995
LSU – 1999, 1998, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, and 1990
Texas – 1997, 1993, 1992, and 1991
Penn State – 2004, 2003, 2001, and 2000

A few obvious observations:

(a) The most dominant program in college football this decade, USC, missed a bowl game in 2000 and missed four in the 1990s.
(b) Penn State, currently ranked 3rd in the country, has missed four bowl games since 2000. They’re probably the most Jekyll/Hyde college team this decade, but their program didn’t dissolve just because they stunk for a few years and they have a decent shot at the BCS Championship Game this season. And in case you forgot: during one of those down years, PSU lost to… Toledo. At home.
(c) LSU missed seven bowl games in the 1990s but has won 2 BCS National Championships since. They essentially stunk for a decade, but do you think that’s bothering them now?
(d) Georgia’s crappy run in the mid-90s didn’t hurt them in the late-90s and early-00s, when they recruited what would be the foundation of a Sugar Bowl and SEC Championship team (2002).

On a related note: Isn’t it clear what happened with a majority of these programs? Most of them underachieved for a few years, hired a good coach, and rose back to their rightful place amongst college football’s elite. USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, and LSU – these are teams that didn’t do much in the 1990s (or even the 1980s, with the exception of the Sooners), yet they’re arguably the five most dominant programs of this decade. Each has at least one national championship to its name since 2000. I’m not saying that Michigan is guaranteed a place amongst this “current elite” in the coming years – I’m saying that the path we’re following has resulted in abundant success for a few of our traditional peers, and there’s no reason why Michigan can’t achieve the same results.

Every single college football power has suffered through a tough time. We are the most consistent and most successful program to do so, and we’re the last of the bunch. So maybe that’s why it stings so much. But I’m confident that Michigan will be back on top sooner rather than later, because I think Rich Rodriguez is a great coach and I know he’s a relentless recruiter. If you think he stinks and you don’t like him for one reason or another, then fine, keep tearing your hair out about the bowl streak, the loss to a MAC team, and all of these other fairly meaningless statistics (or “traditions”) that you think are so important. In the grand scheme of things, I assure you they aren’t. Alabama fans aren’t pining over that missed bowl game in 2003, and Alabama recruits probably don’t even know it happened. They’re all too busy smiling about the fact that they're program is ready to blow up (in a good way).

First Year at a New School: Who Am I?

Let’s play a game! Some names and numbers to ponder:

- I went 6-6 in my first year, including a loss to Utah. I was ridiculed as a poor hire. Here’s what they said about me at first: "After setting out to hire a proven winner but being turned down or ignored by high-profile candidates, [Team X] finally settled on [Coach Y] as its new football coach … despite strong objections from boosters, alumni and fans." Here’s what happened shortly thereafter: I went 2-5 in my first 7 games (ouch!), then 67-7 over my next 74 (whoa!), winning two national titles and bringing my team back to prominence. Who am I? I am Pete Carroll, head coach of the USC Trojans.

- I went 2-9 and 2-10 in my first two seasons, trying to adapt a traditional pro-style offense to a spread that incorporates Rich Rodriguez’s zone read scheme. Contrary to popular belief, my current quarterback was not a dual-threat QB in high school, but he is very athletic. He struggled mightily his freshman year, somehow “managing” to complete less than 40%(!) of his passes. In my third season, we beat Ohio State and went to the Rose Bowl. Now my experienced QB understands the offense and is racking up 300 yards a game like it’s no big deal, including passing for more than 450 yards twice this season (already). My team is currently 10th in the nation in total offense. My offense stunk at first, but now it gives my team a chance to win every game. Who am I? I am Ron Zook, head coach of the Illinois Fighting Illini.

- I went 5-6 in my first year at one of the biggest powers in college football history. In my second year, I went 8-4, and in my third I won a national championship. In the 10 seasons following my sub-par first year, I went 95-24-2. Who am I? I am Lou Holtz, former Notre Dame head coach.

- I went 1-11 in my first year, trying to convert a zone power running game into a spread offense. I even lost to Florida Atlantic and North Dakota State, but I stayed the course and recruited players to fit my system. I kept teaching the system to my fairly young team, and it paid off. This season, my second, I’m 6-1 and my team is going to a bowl game. Who am I? I am Tim Brewster, head coach of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

- I went 7-6 in my first year and lost to Louisana-Monroe (at home, obvs). My team is currently ranked 2nd in the country. Rita Rodriguez knows who I am. Do you? I am Nick Saban, head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide

- I went 3-8 in my first year, struggling to install the spread offense. I managed 9 wins in year 2, which started a run of six straight bowl games, including two BCS bowl wins. Nobody knew anything about me early on in this decade, but I dominated the Big East and now everybody seems to be copying my offense. Rita Rodriguez also knows who I am. I am Rich Rodriguez, former head coach of the West Virginia Mountaineers and current head coach of the Michigan Wolverines.

Do I really need to hammer home the points here? I don’t think so. Some might argue that while the coaches of the “traditional power” teams listed above (Carroll, Holtz, and Saban) didn’t have much success their first year, (a) none of them looked as bad as Michigan’s team does now, and (b) many of them (not to mention coaches like Stoops and Tressel, who weren’t part of the crew above) made HUGE improvements in their second years. These folks would say, and rightfully so, that such an improvement seems unlikely at Michigan in 2009. But there is a big difference between those coaches' situations and Rich Rodriguez’s. Carroll inherited Heisman-type talent at USC and let Norm Chow put the finishing touches on an experienced Carson Palmer. Tressel inherited great linemen and a roster designed to execute his philosophy. Stoops had an efficient JUCO QB (Josh Heupel) who was perfect for his system (and a Heisman runner-up). And so on. Rodriguez has virtually nothing, especially on offense. So let’s talk about that…

Why Does the Offense Stink?

You probably already know this stuff, but please forward this along to Outraged 52-Year-Old Guy in Section 20 (or 3, or 39, or wherever), because he apparently can’t understand why we’re not undefeated. After all, we’re Michigan! Right?! Anyway, on to why the offense is horrible:

Lack of experience

As mentioned multiple times by many others, we have one senior on the entire three-deep (TE Mike Massey). We lost more offensive talent than anybody in the country. Take a look at the list:

QB Chad Henne
QB Ryan Mallett
OL Jake Long
OL Justin Boren
OL Alex Mitchell
OL Adam Kraus
WR Mario Manningham
WR Adrian Arrington
RB Mike Hart

That’s a lot of talent. Other players can and will replace them, but not yet. Not when they’re currently freshmen and sophomores in a new offensive system.

Lack of dual-threat QB (or even a semi-productive QB)

News flash: There was a reason that the first person Rich Rodriguez called after accepting the Michigan job was Terrelle Pryor. Actually, there were 4 reasons: (1) Ryan Mallett, (2) Steven Threet, (3) Nick Sheridan, and (4) David Cone. Rodriguez knew that he had nobody on the Michigan roster that could run the spread offense. [And if you fault Rich for not “adapting his offense to his talent,” please see the “Some Words from the Wise” section below] Yes, Mallett had a strong arm – but how quickly people forget his fumble and attitude problems. Yes, Threet was an Elite 11 QB – but he’s only a redshirt freshman playing in a brand new system, and maybe he (like Mallett) was a bit overrated in high school? Rounding out the QB group were a walk-on who’s probably on the team only because his dad used to coach here (Sheridan) and a lanky, immobile passer (Cone).

Rodriguez knew he needed help… immediately. With only about 6 weeks left before Signing Day, he did the best he could. QB recruit B.J. Daniels, who ended up at South Florida, was apparently headed to Michigan when it became clear that something fishy was going on with his recruitment (and since USF coach is such a jerk, I’ll state the obvious: various folks claimed that he wanted to get P.A.I.D.). So when Rodriguez had to drop Daniels and was unable to lure another QB (such as Alabama commit Star Jackson or Minnesota commit MarQueis Gray) at the 11th hour, Justin Feagin was the only one Michigan was able to snag. And here’s a telling quote from Feagin’s Scout.com profile: “[Feagin] starts at quarterback and safety but projects as a safety in college.” So that’s where we stand. Unfortunately for Rich, and for Michigan fans, help won’t be arriving until 2009. But to hold the poor QB play against Rodriguez this season is ridiculous. We just don’t have a productive QB on our roster right now, let alone a productive spread-option QB.

Lack of quality OL

Brian’s got this one.

Injuries, Suspensions, and other Junk

Nobody likes these types of excuses, but this season they’re quite valid. Each of these offensive players has missed at least one game:

OL Cory Zirbel (most experienced OL, out for the season before a game was played)
OL Perry Dorrestein (current starter)
OL Mark Ortmann (current starter)
RB Brandon Minor (projected starter, key backup)
RB Carlos Brown (key backup)
RB Kevin Grady (1-game suspension, key backup)
WR Greg Mathews (current starter)
WR Daryl Stonum (1-game suspension, current starter)
WR Junior Hemingway (one-time starter, currently out with Mono)
Slot WR Terrence Robinson (projected contributor, hasn’t played in a game due to injury)
Slot WR Martavious Odoms (current starter, sorely missed in the Toledo loss)

Also recall that TE Carson Butler (general boneheadedness) and QB Steven Threet (Entire 2nd Half vs. Toledo, part of 2nd Half at Notre Dame) have missed various parts of games this year. We’ve been flat-out unlucky: We have virtually no experience on offense, and some key players that we can’t do without have already missed a significant amount of time.

Some Words from the Wise

Brian gets it right:

No, this offense would not be any better if it was lining up under center every play and running isos. Banish this from your mind. When you have freshmen at quarterback and most of the skill positions and a line with something like 6 even quasi-reasonable options and the lone senior on the two-deep is the third-string tight end, you are going to be awful no matter what offensive philosophy you adopt. There are like two and a half good players on offense.

And what would that buy Michigan? A Motor City Bowl invite? I'd like to keep the bowl streak—not going to happen—but if the choice is between a crappy December bowl and some increased chance Michigan is great in 2010, I'll take the latter.

Jake gets it right:

Informed football fans understand why Michigan is struggling. You cannot have success running the spread if you have a QB who can’t run or throw. Truth be told, you can’t have success running any offense with a QB like that but it is especially true with the spread. Michigan is bad for one reason and that’s because of the QB play. If RR had merely an average spread QB, or even just an accurate passer, Michigan would likely be 4-2. Instead, Michigan is 2-4 and looks even worse than that. There are many things this team could improve on but there is only one thing making this team bad. I’ll once again cite my favorite example when discussing Michigan and the spread: Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson literally hit the ground running at Georgia Tech with his triple option attack. With far less talent than Michigan, he had the Yellow Jackets wreckin’ house at a rate of 412 total yards per game. Why? Because he inherited two above average dual-threat QBs. That’s it. That’s the difference. Michigan is a disaster because of one position. Need evidence? Both of Georgia Tech’s QB’s were out this past weekend against Gardner-Webb. Gardner-Webb is a I-AA team and a mediocre I-AA team at that. Without its two dual-threat QBs—and with a Threet-esque QB—Georgia Tech won 10-7 and put up 199 total yards. Sound familiar? Michigan isn’t perfect, but it is literally one position away from being a 10-win bowl team. Don’t forget that when you’re making your “Fire RR” signs.

And he doesn’t stop there:

Remember when Bill Martin hired RR? There was a huge group of fans who were still complaining about not getting Les Miles. I believe those are the people who are already giving up on Rodriguez. Only an ignorant fan would already give up on Rodriguez six games into his career. I think the people who supported RR from the beginning are still behind him. It’s just too bad that we can’t expel moronic fans who are jumping ship six games into RR’s career. They will come back and cheer just like the rest of us with no consequences. There was an idiot who called into Sam Webb’s show on Monday morning who said, “If Michigan would’ve hired Brady Hoke, we’d be undefeated.” There wasn’t a person in the universe who wanted Michigan to hire Brady Hoke (Hoke relatives not included). In fact, Hoke represented the worst possible scenario. People were having nightmares about the possibility of Hoke running the program. I can’t believe there is a guy out there, living and breathing, who could actually bring himself to mutter the sentence, “Martin blew it by not hiring Brady Hoke.”

Finally, Stewart Mandel gets it right:

Stewart, as an extremely concerned Michigan fan I have one simple question: Rich Rodriquez = Bill Callahan?
-- Jamie DeFrank, Washington D.C.

Wow -- you're really going there already? I figured Michigan fans would be panicking this week, but Callahan was arguably the most disastrous coaching hire this decade. You don't happen to be the kind of person who runs to the doctor's office at the first sight of a pimple?

I'm guessing you're making the parallel because Callahan, like Rodriguez, tried to overhaul a previously successful program's offensive system. And, like Callahan, he's an outsider. But at the end of the day, Callahan didn't fail at Nebraska because of his offense. On the contrary, the Huskers were quite powerful offensively by the end of his tenure. He failed because he was an NFL-bred coach trying to run a college program like an NFL franchise and, in the process, he managed to alienate almost everyone connected to that program.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, is a proven college coach. If you haven't noticed, West Virginia hasn't been the same without him. Tommy Bowden just resigned in part because he could never replicate the success he had with Rodriguez as his offensive coordinator. The guy knows what he's doing; unfortunately, his players can't yet say the same.

In Closing

Allow me to repeat what I said a few weeks ago, because it applied then, it applies now, and it will apply 6 months from now (so re-read it, if and when necessary):

What’s very frustrating for me is that Charlie Weis went 3-9 in his third year, and there was virtually no talk of firing him. But I guarantee you that if Rodriguez misses a bowl game this season, his first year, you will hear a LOT more talk about how he’s not the right guy for the job, etc. Never mind the fact that we don’t have a proper QB for his system yet – the most important part of Michigan’s team from here on out. Additionally, Rodriguez is working with about 5 of “his own” recruits. In his 3rd year, Weis was working with, what, 50(?) of his own recruits (two full recruiting classes, plus a few guys he pulled in after Willingham was fired). Pretty much all of his offensive players in year 3 fit his offensive system (pro style). And if you want to say that Weis struggled because his 3rd-year team was loaded with inexperienced players... umm, have you looked at Michigan’s roster lately? The entire THREE-deep on offense has just one senior (TE Mike Massey), and we’re starting freshmen at QB, RB, OL, and WR!

I’m already annoyed at the media because I can see this coming from a mile away. Rich Rodriguez is a very good coach. We need to give him time, and we need to stop any crap from the media before it starts.

But “we” didn’t preemptively stop the crap from the media, did we? No, “we” embraced it. And by “we” I’m talking about Outraged 52-Year-Old Guy in Section 20, who I mentioned earlier. I swear, Michigan must have the most self-abusive fan base in the country. Show that guy a hint of negativity, a bit of adversity, or an “unacceptable” result, and he’ll run with it until he’s blue in the face and our coach is showing up on “hot seat” lists across the internet.

So here’s my humble plea to those folks: Stop complaining. Stop booing. Stop playing the “what if” game. Stop using the word “fire” (unless you’re talking about the element). Michigan is young, inexperienced, and lacking talent at many key positions. But we are going to be very good in a few years. In the meantime, for the sake of the rest of us and for the betterment of Michigan football, please deal with yourselves. Go Blue!

Back from the Bye Week Break

2008-09-25T21:20:00.002-04:00

They have a team of monkeys working around the clock on this stuff

Want another example of the U of M “marketing” team doing a great job? How about the commemorative t-shirt for this weekend’s game against Wisconsin – the 500th in Michigan Stadium history. The game is a Maize Out, and the t-shirt is white. Way to go!

Weis Year 3 vs. Rodriguez Year 1

This has nothing to do with the ND game, but it’s somewhat related. What’s very frustrating for me is that Charlie Weis went 3-9 in his third year, and there was virtually no talk of firing him. But I guarantee you that if Rodriguez misses a bowl game this season, his first year, you will hear a LOT more talk about how he’s not the right guy for the job, etc. Never mind the fact that we don’t have a proper QB for his system yet – the most important part of Michigan’s team from here on out. Additionally, Rodriguez is working with about 5 of “his own” recruits. In his 3rd year, Weis was working with, what, 50(?) of his own recruits (two full recruiting classes, plus a few guys he pulled in after Willingham was fired). Pretty much all of his offensive players in year 3 fit his offensive system (pro style). And if you want to say that Weis struggled because his 3rd-year team was loaded with inexperienced players... umm, have you looked at Michigan’s roster lately? The entire THREE-deep on offense has just one senior (TE Mike Massey), and we’re starting freshmen at QB, RB, OL, and WR!

I’m already annoyed at the media because I can see this coming from a mile away. Rich Rodriguez is a very good coach. We need to give him time, and we need to stop any crap from the media before it starts.

Know the Horse-Collar Rule: Some Horse-Collar Tackles are OK (seriously)

I looked this up because the “horse-collar” penalty that Michigan was called for on one of ND’s interception returns was a horrible call. And, yes, it was called (although NBC didn’t mention it very clearly and the replay was shown while the ref was making the call). The Michigan player (David Molk, I believe) grabbed the ND player’s collar area and pulled down/back for a split second, but the ND player remained on his feet and his momentum carried him forward. He lost his balance after the Michigan player had released him, and eventually fell down to his right without being touched at the time. Does that sound like it fits within the description of the penalty (Rule 9-1-2-p)?:

“All players are prohibited from grabbing the inside back collar of the shoulder pads or jersey, or the inside collar of the side of the shoulder pads or jersey, and immediately pulling the runner down. This does not apply to a runner who is inside the tackle box or to a quarterback who is in the pocket.” (emphasis mine)

There are two things to note here: (1) “Immediately pulling the runner down” definitely didn’t happen in the Michigan-ND game. Under any definition of the word, that wasn’t an “immediate” tackle by the Michigan player. And, for future reference, (2) The horse-collar tackle prohibition “does not apply to a runner who is inside the tackle box or to a quarterback who is in the pocket.” There is going to be a lot of confusion on this rule (there already is), because a QB will get sacked via a horse-collar tackle and either (a) the refs will call it a penalty, which it shouldn’t be, or (b) fans will riot because the penalty wasn’t called. Additionally, I think Michigan fans need to know this rule because I bet we’ll see a lot of horse-collar tackles within the tackle box in the future. McGuffie will take a handoff on a zone stretch play and get pulled down from behind by a crashing DE. Fans will want a penalty, but if he’s within the tackle box there shouldn’t be one.

Also note a further clarification by the NCAA that will probably be incorrectly called in the coming years: "If the ball carrier is grabbed by the shoulder or jersey and just ridden to the ground over a couple of yards, that's not going to be a foul." This jibes with the “immediate” standard that is listed in the rule, but I just see too much room for differing interpretations of this rule. Another annoying thing from that article: "We'll err on the side of safety. We'll defend the official who may be a little more strict, because that's a major point of emphasis." The whole “point of emphasis” thing is illogical on its face. So some rules are more important than others? The NCAA is starting to sound like the Notre Dame announcers on NBC, who stated that intentional grounding didn’t need to be called on Jimmy Clausen because he threw the ball “near” the line of scrimmage (the rule, as you know, is that the ball must at least reach the line of scrimmage). Every rule is important and every rule should be applied uniformly.

Looking at Wisconsin

The Badgers have a handful of nagging injuries, it seems. RB P.J. Hill has a leg bruise. TE Travis Beckum had a hamstring issue for the first few weeks of the season – those can linger. WLB Jonathan Casillas had a knee injury but played in Wisconsin’s last game (at Fresno State). CB Aaron Henry is recovering from a knee injury and might make the decision to play or redshirt this Saturday. Is it evil of me to hope that all of these guys play a lot but are very limited in their production/mobility? Maybe they’ll “tough it out” because it’s Michigan and they haven’t won in the Big House during their careers, but in doing so they might take valuable snaps away from healthy, productive players (like TE Garrett Graham, who has been Wisconsin’s leading receiving threat).

Here's a good take, from mgoblog’s diaries, on what to expect and what we need to do to win. Enjoy the game, and Go Blue!

If we lose, blame Adidas

2008-09-12T14:09:00.001-04:00

And I’m not just talking about the inevitable complaints that will result from seeing our new road uniforms in action for the first time, I’m talking about the frustration that will result from seeing out team slipping and sliding all over the place. It’s going to be wet and a bit windy, and the grass will probably be longer than we’d prefer. Be prepared to flashbacks of the 2006 game at OSU, where our DL couldn’t seem to stay upright thanks to the slippery surface. I fully expect to hear horror stories about how Adidas only brought one set of cleats for Michigan. And then the conspiracy theories (which I will totally partake in) about how Adidas prefers Notre Dame to Michigan because ND has that one Adidas deodorant ad in all the sports magazines.

On a more serious note, here are some random things I expect to see in the ND game:

- A deep play-action pass out of the I-formation on 3rd and short. Kevin Grady will be in the game, and most will expect him to get the ball. He won’t. Whether it works or not is another story.

- Lots of dink and dunk passes from ND, including a variety of screens to RBs, WRs, and TEs. This has been discussed all week, since most people believe the Irish will attempt to neutralize Michigan’s DL with quick passes.

- A fluky special teams play. Most likely: the wet football is going to get dropped by a punter. And I think Michigan tries for at least one punt block (which shouldn’t really merit a mention, but it’s been so rare for Michigan to do so against ND that it will be nice to see them try it).

- More of Carlos Brown at QB than we’ve ever seen. He will get a handful of snaps, and he might even play QB on consecutive plays. And for the first time in my life, I think there’s a (small) chance that he’ll actually attempt a pass. I’d also expect a designed run to the strong side of the field which turns into a reverse when Brown hands off to Martavious Odoms.

Looking back at Miami (OH)

- As I was hoping, the blocking out in the flats improved, but there were still several missed blocks.

- 2 weeks in a row of terrible (as in, way worse than usual “bad”) announcers. They harped on Miami’s missed opportunities, but never mentioned Michigan’s: 2 or 3 dropped INTs, 2 or 3 missed wide open receivers – a few of those might have gone for TDs. I won’t even get into the stupid “the state of Michigan is crap” segment. Unbelievable.

- The defense wasn’t great, but I’m surprised at how many people were ripping it in the immediate aftermath of the game. After re-watching, and realizing that we held them to 6 points, I think people realized that we did a decent job. But, yes, Stevie Brown still has issues.

- For all of the talk about Sheridan being the better runner, Threet is the guy who appears to have made more correct reads on the zone-read handoffs this season. He made 2 very good reads vs. Miami, one resulting in the first TD. On a related note, I just feel more comfortable with Threet in there. For now.

Post-Utah thoughts

2008-09-05T13:05:00.001-04:00

Had to digest the game a bit longer than most, obviously. And it never helps that September is the busiest month at work. Great timing, huh?

Bullets:

- It’s a bit disappointing to see how many people are ready to write this team and its coaching staff off. It was one game! Yes, there are various areas of concern, but some people need to get a grip. I always disagreed with the people who claimed that Michigan fans just liked to complain about anything, but after some of the things I’ve seen and read this week… maybe they’re on to something. This season will be tough, but Utah is a good team. What you saw was a good spread team with a veteran spread QB vs. a bad spread team with inexperienced “spread QBs” (and I obviously use that term loosely for Sheridan and Threet). We will get better over time, and we will get much better once we have a true spread QB. As much as it stinks to say it, Terrelle Pryor really set our program back a year or two by choosing to attend Ohio State.

- On the last play of the game, Threet threw high and incomplete to Stonum. Watching the replay, Minor appears to be open on a seam route down the middle. It would have been a 40-yard throw, but it also might have been a TD. I can’t knock Threet too much for not seeing it, since it clearly wasn’t his first read. But I’m hoping we see more of these seam routes from Minor, Shaw, Butler and the like. Utah certainly killed us (mainly in the first half) by lining up WRs and TEs against our LBs. If teams are willing to play us like that, we have to make them pay.

- That incomplete pass from Sheridan to Minor near the end of the first half was a heart-breaker. Same seam route (on the left side that time), same wide open receiver, but Sheridan couldn’t connect. I also had flashbacks to some of the practice video I’ve seen over the summer, and I distinctly recall Rich Rod yelling something like, “Brandon, don’t stab at it.” While this was off-camera, I’m pretty sure he was talking about putting one hand up to catch a pass when you really need two (or when you should be diving for the ball). And he might have been talking to Brandon Moore for all I know. Anyway, I understand that Sheridan threw a fairly bad pass there, but the old coaching axiom that “if you can get a hand on it, you should catch it” comes to mind. I can’t really fault Minor, since he’s not a WR by any means, but I wonder if his eyes got big when he saw all that open field. Maybe a leap and a two-handed grab for a mere first down would have been the better option? Would that have even been possible, considering how quickly the play developed? Just thinking out loud…

- Mesko was very lucky not to get his 4th quarter roll-out punt blocked. It seems he was told to look for open field and run for the first down, if possible. But there was a Utah player right there when he finally punted – I’m amazed he missed that punt block.

- Did Tony Gibson have some chewing tobacco in his mouth? They showed him on the sidelines on TV at least twice, and both times it looked like he did. If so, gross.

- The 4th quarter was really loud. Good job by the fans who were still there – quite a few had left. Probably the loudest I’ve ever heard it (although I’ve missed a few “loud” games like MSU 2004).

- Yes, the first half defense pretty much stunk. Marell Evans wasn’t that good, although I must admit watching from the stadium he looked like he was fast and active. Re-watching, he was clearly fast and unproductive. I think the coaches love his speed and athleticism – he’s just not ready yet. The second half performance was very good. I don’t buy the “Utah shut things down” argument. They might have been a little conservative in the 3rd quarter, but it wasn’t Lloydball by any means. Our DL was getting good pressure and the secondary was staying true to their assignments just long enough – something that couldn’t be said in the first half (Stevie Brown again taking a bad angle, Charles Stewart settling into weird/deep zones). The result was a lot of sacks, hurries, penalties, and a fumble recovery. The defense also looked fresh, so maybe all of that off-season conditioning is going to pay off. As many predicted, the LBs will be key. Jonas Mouton replacing Evans helped a bit, and John Thompson replacing Austin Panter in certain situations might make things better.

- I think we beat Miami (OH), 28-17, or something like that. I would love to see us block some of those screens a bit better. I won’t even ask the OL to block better, since that’s a work in progress and a much bigger problem. But Mike Massey, the WRs, and the RBs need to make their blocks if we’re going to have guys like Martavious Odoms do any damage in the flat. I think we break one or two of those this weekend, and that will end up being the difference.

Random Stuff. You Know the Drill...

2008-08-27T21:08:00.002-04:00

Is Utah the most important game of the season?

With mere hours to go before the season starts, all of the season previews and predictions are popping up. I'll leave that stuff to the big boys - I just haven't had time for it this year (I apologize to my few (loyal!) readers). But I wanted to bring up a topic that has been popular on the message boards in the past few days. What is the most "important" game of the year?

Many fans feel that Utah is the most important game this season. I disagree. But I guess that depends on how you define “important” – something I’m not going to get into, because there are so many different takes. So the following few paragraphs don’t really have a point – I just wanted to discuss this (with myself).

A loss to Utah will be bad any way you slice it. The words "Appalachian State" will be uttered a few thousand more times. The complaints about Rodriguez's coaching ability will start, after enduring 8 months of ridiculous attacks on his character. The fear of losing the nation's longest bowl appearance streak will be the subject on talk radio. It won't be fun. And maybe that’s what Michigan fans are fearing: that the fun and excitement surrounding our new regime will be squashed (or at least tempered) immediately. They envision a loss to Utah that could precede a 1-4 start (with additional losses to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Illinois), making us look like the 2008 version of ND’s 2007 team. And that is definitely possible. We might end up turning the season around during the more manageable second half of the schedule, but a bad start isn’t unfathomable.

My take is that loss to Utah will stink, but it won't be the end of the world. How quickly people forget that we lost to Appalachian State last year, got destroyed by Oregon, but finished 2nd in the Big Ten and ended the season with a victory over media darling and defending national champion Florida. The program didn't dissolve, the season was played out, and we acquitted ourselves fairly well (all things considered). Considering this is our first game under a new staff implementing a new offensive system, I think it’s fair to think that we’ll improve a bit after Game 1.

Also, if we didn't open the season with Utah, would people be discussing this game as much? If we played Toledo on August 30th, and Utah on October 11th, would it be getting as much play? I highly doubt it. Yes, the game is more “important” because it is the season opener, and the way you start can set the tone for the entire season. But if we can finish the season with 8 wins, I don’t people will care too much if Utah was or wasn’t one of them. I don’t think you can say the same about a handful of other games on the schedule, and that’s why Utah isn’t as important to me.

Another way of looking at it: If we beat Utah, but lose to Ohio State, people won't be giving us much credit for that August 30th win. But if we lose to Utah and beat Ohio State, that victory will be the talk of the off-season. You can see the headlines now, can’t you?: "Rich Rod Reignites Michigan-Ohio State Rivalry". So I say Ohio State is the most important game, like most every season, even though we don’t have a good chance of winning. Michigan State and Notre Dame are also very important, for rivalry and recruiting purposes.

Don’t get me wrong – Utah is a very important game. But it seems clear to me that as the season progresses, whether we won or lost the Utah game will become less and less important.

3 tips to live by

Maize and Blue Nation and Varsity Blue have some fan “guidelines” that are worth checking out. I figured I’d add my take on what I feel are the 3 most important things:

1 - Make noise. Serious noise. The “key play” stuff with the jangling keys is so weak. Think about it this way: If you’re walking in a parking lot and you want to get the attention of someone 50 yards in front of you, what do you do? Jangle your keys at them? Clap at them? No, you YELL at them, because that’s the loudest sound you can make. Your voice is your loudest “noisemaker,” for lack of a better term. When Michigan is on defense, scream your lungs out. If your voice isn’t hoarse on Sunday, you haven’t done your part. It’s that simple.

2 - Wear maize. As Varsity Blue put it, “A maize shirt costs you a maximum of 16 dollars (and even that's only if you get the official T-shirt). Wear it.” Yep. It creates a better atmosphere and looks very impressive on TV and to recruits in the stadium. I can never understand all of those 275 pound dudes who rock their #18 Amani Toomer jerseys from Coolio’s “1, 2, 3, 4 (Sumpin’ New)” video. Those things are just guaranteed heat, sweat, and stank. Wear a maize t-shirt. It’s made of cotton, it reflects the sun (blue attracts it), and it’s 100 times cooler (in both senses of the word).

3 - Enough with the “down in front” stuff. If people stand up in front of you, you can choose to stand up or stay seated. Either way, don’t whine about it. If you want to enjoy the game in comfort with a great view, guess what?... it’s available in beautiful high definition in the comfort of your living room! You’re not at a movie, you’re at a football game. People are going to get involved in the action, and standing up is a perfectly acceptable way of doing so. Yes, once in a while some idiot will stand up for no apparent reason. He’s probably drunk, and he’s the exception to the rule. But in general, Michigan fans are very knowledgeable, and if they stand up it’s for a reason.

And so it begins

I’ve seen some posts this week asking “when was the last time you were this excited for a season to start?” Sadly, most fans (if they’re responding truthfully) would have to say “last season – 2007.” Ouch. But I don’t think the fans asking this question are only inquiring about this season and its results, but rather the new era of Michigan football. Jake was right when he said: “Some have compared it to an upgrade. I compare it to a transplant. The body is the same but the substance is entirely new.” In my opinion, any fan who isn’t looking forward to this season (because we probably won’t be that good, or for any other reason) is insane. Would you rather go back to the days of dreading that first loss? Fearing those road trips out West? Knowing that we were “saving things” for Notre Dame? Sitting through an uninspired, lackluster effort against a team we were favored to beat by 28 points? Those are things that we dealt with far too often over the past decade. Lloyd Carr is a great man and he was a good coach. But we needed a change. We needed a transplant. And, yes, I understand that there will likely be a variety of things that I will dislike about Rich Rodriguez and his coaching staff sooner or later. But for now, I am downright giddy that I have no idea what to expect. That I’ll see a bunch of weird formations and random plays I never thought I’d see in Michigan Stadium. That no matter what happens this weekend, or this season, the future is bright.

The long-term prognosis for the Michigan football program is better than it has been in recent memory – arguably in my entire life. We have one of the best coaches in college football, unbelievable facilities upgrades in the works, and we’re getting amazing exposure thanks to the openness of the new coaching staff. If you can’t get excited about that, it’s time to find a new team. Or, rather, another sport. Because in college football, it doesn’t get any better than Michigan. Go Blue!

Comcast/BTN (the last word?) and Jersey Numbers

2008-08-15T12:02:00.004-04:00

My last Comcast/BTN post... ever?!

I saw these two articles regarding all overflow BTN games being available in Philly and various parts of Pennsylvania. These were the first “official” overflow channel assignments that I had seen, and they were being distributed by an East Coast Comcast Rep named Jeff Alexander. I figured that gave me an excuse to email my Comcast contact and see if the overflow channels had been assigned in DC yet. Here’s what she said (important stuff in bold):

“Jeff Alexander is actually on my team and, yes, I can now confirm that the DC-area will use the same channels for "overflow" games - channels 801 through 804. [These channels will] only be “active” when they are in use for these “overflow” games, which is why you wouldn’t see them [on your Comcast TV Guide] yet. Unlike [the primary BTN channel], which will be 24/7, these channels will only be in use when there are actual overflow games, which is why you wouldn’t see anything yet. We are feeding information to the Guides as we have it, but given BTN schedules, potential changes, etc., I’d suggest you scan the channels on game day based on BTN air times and schedules.

Regarding BTN HD, we have no immediate plans to launch [in DC], but I can assure you we are always looking at new networks to add - especially in HD.

By the way, beginning on or about 8/28, you should also have access to some nice Video On Demand content BTN will be supplying, so be on the lookout on your VOD menu.”

Thanks to anybody in and around DC who called Comcast regarding the Big Ten Network. I'm glad they actually listened to us. Whether the same setup will occur in other locations probably depends on demand and (more importantly) free system space. The DC crew lucked out because Comcast has a decent amount of space available here. We'll see what happens in NYC, South Florida, California and other areas with plenty of alumni but (likely) more system space constraints.

This is odd

In a year in which most people are predicting a single-digit win total for Michigan, maybe it’s appropriate that we’ll have more “important” players with single-digit jersey numbers than… ever?

2 – RB Sam McGuffie (Fr.)
3 – QB Justin Feagin (Fr.)
3 – S Stevie Brown (Jr.)
4 – RB Brandon Minor (Jr.)
4 – LB Marcus Witherspoon (Fr.)
5 – TE Carson Butler (R. Jr.)
5 – S Charles Stewart (5th Sr.)
6 – CB Donovan Warren (So.)
7 – WR Terrance Robinson (Fr.)
8 – LB Jonas Mouton (R. So.)
8 – QB Nick Sheridan (R. So.)
9 – LB Marell Evans (So.)
9 – WR Martavious Odoms (Fr.)

All that without a #1, either. Of the players listed above, only Witherspoon is almost certain to redshirt this season (due to an academic snafu). The rest should play, and it is possible that Brown, Minor, Butler, Stewart, Warren, Sheridan, Evans, and one of Robinson/Odoms are all opening-game starters. McGuffie, Feagin, and Mouton will definitely see the field, and even if Odoms edges out Robinson for more snaps at the Slot-WR position (which seems to be the word on the street this week), both players will likely get a shot at punt and/or kick returns. That’s a lot of action from the single-digit guys. And since some people are complaining that the numbers on the new adidas jerseys are too small, it might be wise to familiarize yourself with the numerical roster so you can know who’s who. Note: Two players with the same jersey number can’t be on the field at the same time.

Update: Comcast and BTN Outside the Midwest

2008-08-01T13:12:00.003-04:00

If true, this would be awesome (for people in DC, mind you). Yesterday I received an email from a higher-up PR person from Comcast’s East Coast regional office. This is a different person than the one who contacted me before, for what it’s worth:

“[Nick] - I wanted to share some good news, which is that I can now confirm that we will make the “overflow” BTN feeds available to our customers throughout DC. I do not yet have the specific channel locations, but I know you were anxious for updates so wanted to let you know that they will be available.”

I remain skeptical for three reasons: (1) She’s a PR person, and seeing that Comcast was having its Customer Service Reps tell callers that they were going to add the BTN prior to last season, maybe this is just an attempt to keep me from switching to another provider (for the time being, at least). (2) Two separate impeccable “sources,” one of which works for Comcast, told me as late as 2 days ago that the temporary plan was to have just one overflow feed. (3) I’m a pessimist.

I’ll try to be optimistic about this, though, because I’ve dealt with this lady before and she seems honest, and both of my “sources” did indicate that no final decision regarding overflow feeds had been made. Plus, the email pasted above is the most recent and most “official” communication I’ve received, and it's from a high-level employee. Fingers crossed…

And to clarify – BTN is definitely being added to the Sports Tier in DC, as evidenced by the recent message that popped up on my cable box: “August 15, 2008 Comcast of the District, LLC is adding the following channels to the Sports & Entertainment Package: Big Ten Network on 257, HRTV on 259, and TV Games on 260.”

So we might find out the overflow details in 2 weeks, or we might have to wait until August 30th (the first day of games) to see what the real deal is. I urge all fans, even those in DC, to continue to call Comcast (1-800-COMCAST) to find out the setup in your area. If Comcast doesn’t know that there is demand for the overflow feeds, they certainly won’t add them.

6 Weeks Left

2008-07-19T10:32:00.003-04:00

The Truth is Out There

Did LSU schedule Appalachian State to “get back” at Michigan for the Les Miles fiasco? The game was announced in early February, and there wasn't much talk about it, maybe partially because LSU and Appalachian State have played once before (2005), so it didn't seem too fishy. But maybe there's more to the story that we don't know? I was recently looking at some TV listing for the upcoming season, and noticed that the game is on ESPN. I know that in the recent past, ESPN has contacted schools and said “we can put you on TV if you play Team X on Date Y.” Seeing that this game involves the three-ring circus of Les Miles, Appalachian State, and Michigan (all intertwined in history, in a transitive way), I figured that ESPN’s marketing team made the first call and set up the match-up. But in the NOLA article linked above, and in this ESPN release, there is no mention of the game being on ESPN (or any ESPN network). According to this article, the LSU folks initially expected the game to go untelevised, until ESPN came in later and asked to televise it, moving it from a night game to a late afternoon start. Considering that all major programs want exposure, exposure, exposure(!), one could speculate that LSU was willing to open its season untelevised just to rub it in the face of the Wolverines. Or maybe there just weren't any other opponents available. Either way, somebody call Mulder.

Final Image?

If you have a copy of The Wolverine’s 2008 Football Preview, turn to page 237. See that shirtless white dude in the far background… away from the team, at his locker, turning to look back while everybody celebrates with Lloyd? Is that Ryan Mallett? I think it is. If so, it’s a fitting image, and resembles what a lot of insiders said about Mallett: quite the character on the field (he was celebrating with Lloyd and animated on the sidelines during the bowl game), but maybe not the most liked or respected guy in the locker room. If that isn't him, then somebody needs to figure out who Mr. Lonely is.

Process of Elimination: MSU at 3:30

The MSU game seems as close to a lock for a 3:30 start as possible, because the other Big Ten kickoff times for that date have been announced:

Illinois @ Wisconsin: Noon – BTN, ESPN or ESPN2
Northwestern @ Indiana: Noon – BTN, ESPN or ESPN2
Minnesota @ Purdue: Noon – BTN, ESPN or ESPN2
Penn State @ Ohio State: 8 p.m. – ABC, ESPN or ESPN2
Iowa: Bye
Michigan State @ Michigan: TBA

The most prominent slot missing? 3:30 on ABC, which is where one would expect Michigan-MSU to go. Ultra-intense speculation/breakdown follows:

Maybe there’s an super-small chance that if both Michigan and MSU absolutely stink, the game will be given a Noon start on BTN, ESPN, or ESPN2, but that would mean no Big Ten 3:30 game on ABC – and I don’t think that’s ever happened, or is even allowed to happen since it probably violates the Big Ten’s contract with ABC/ESPN. Additionally, I’m thinking that the MSU game won’t be on BTN, unless that’s one of the weeks that they have the second pick. And seeing that the BTN hasn’t announced that it has the rights to MSU @ Michigan or Illinois @ Wisconsin, I’m guessing that BTN has 3rd or 4th pick on October 25th. I’d assume the BTN would want to promote their ownership of a game like UM-MSU, and if they had “second pick” they could start doing so now since ABC/ESPN has already claimed ownership of PSU-OSU. Even though Comcast has a deal with the BTN now, the BTN would still want to put pressure on Charter and other Michigan cable companies, and that would be a great way to do it (remember the hysteria when it was thought that Michigan-MSU might be on BTN last season?).

The guess here is that ABC wants, and will televise, Michigan-MSU, and BTN is aware of this, but nothing can be officially announced until a later date due to some random contract clause (i.e. “ABC/ESPN may select and announce X number of games before July 31, each year, but cannot select or announce additional games until the 6 to 12 day window kicks in”). In short, ABC knows what it’s getting, they just (a) can’t announce it, and/or (b) have virtually no incentive to announce it.

Comcast and BTN - Out of Market Concerns

2008-06-30T20:41:00.004-04:00

Most Comcast customers who follow Big Ten sports breathed a sigh of relief when it was finally announced that the nation's largest cable company would carry the Big Ten Network (BTN) this fall. Being an OCD "details type," I immediately wondered what the terms of the deal entailed. The press release was fairly vague, since (in my opinion) the most important thing about the BTN is having access to all of its "overflow" feeds, so you can see all of the games (without having to worry about whether you'll receive your team's game). This is especially important for me, since I live in Washington, DC. So if I only get one BTN channel, my "regional coverage" might be the BTN Game of the Week (which may or may not include Michigan), or worse yet, Penn State (since they're the closest geographically). This short blurb from the Baltimore Sun makes it sound like the BTN will be available on Comcast's Sports Entertainment Package in cities like Baltimore (stated), DC, NYC, etc. (inferred), which was expected. But what about those overflow feeds?!

So I tried to do the impossible: Get my issue on the books, and see if a Comcast employee in the Washington, DC area would actually respond to (and, more importantly, understand) my questions. It appears they did, since I didn't get a computer-generated response. But their response leaves more ambiguity than I was hoping for. Here it is, with names/numbers redacted. For what it's worth (nothing), it comes from a "higher up" employee who is responsible for the DC area:

Your e-mail was forwarded to me and I wanted to address your concerns as best as I could, now that we have announced our plans to carry the Big Ten Network. In terms of our carrying multiple games being played at the same time, I am told by our Marketing Department that --

"It is our understanding that each week, BTN will recommend a 'primary' game that will appear on BTN, and that game might vary by market. And you are correct; there may be one or more other games going on at the same time. We plan to review this situation week by week, and hope to bring our customers as many of these extra games as possible, based on level of interest and available channel capacity. BTN has told us that these details of this opportunity will not be available until August, and that they are quite subject to change, week to week, based on the game selections by ESPN, ABC and NBC."

A few thoughts:

- They don't come out and say they'll only have one feed, but judging by the email's tone, I'd be shocked if they plan on having all feeds. They specifically mention Comcast's "available channel capacity" (which is low, thanks to terrible planning and failure to implement new technology like Switched Digital Video). That's a bad sign, since that seems to be Comcast's second most common generic excuse when they don't want to carry a channel (lack of demand being the first, but we've already solved that one - kind of).

- About demand, or, "level of interest," as they put it. My most blunt response to this is that I can assure them that there will be 100 times more interest in Illinois @ Northwestern (which, admittedly, is a fairly lame game) than there will be in Lehigh @ Yale. Why does Lehigh-Yale matter in this discussion? Because that's the type of game that is often shown (on tape delay or replay, no less) on one of the three Fox College Sports (FCS) channels that Comcast has on its Sports Entertainment Package. How can they give us three channels of that rubbish, mixed in with a decent Big 12 or Pac-10 game now and then, and tell us that we only need one feed of the BTN? Seeing that the crappy FCS channels are owned by the BTN's partner (Fox), it would be painfully ironic if we were subjected to three channels of Stony Brook @ Hofstra, Southern Illinois @ Indiana State, and Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa while being left with only one BTN game every Saturday afternoon. I take that back - that would just be painful.

- Misinformation, as usual. The email makes it seem like BTN will have some say as to whether Comcast can show certain games (and when/where). But that's confusing the issue. The fact is that the BTN wants every feed to be available on every system in every home in America. They aren't going to dissuade Comcast from adding a 4th or 5th feed so fans can see every game, they're going to encourage that. But Comcast, as expected, isn't stating it that way. They write, "BTN has told us that these details of this opportunity will not be available until August," and they bring in irrelevant networks (ABC, ESPN, NBC) to blur the picture. Comcast, I'll save you the suspense and make things clear for you: You have the "opportunity" to add every BTN overflow channel so your customers can have access to every Big Ten Network game (just like DirecTV, Dish Network, and AT&T customers have)... do it! Thanks!

So in case you haven't realized it yet: If you're a Michigan fan with Comcast, living outside of Michigan, you might want to contact Comcast about their plans for the overflow feeds in your area. If you live in NYC or San Francisco, any and all overflows will likely be on the Sports Tier. If you live in Ohio, you might get an overflow or two on a Digital Tier. But call up and find out for yourself, and let Comcast know that demand exists for multiple feeds of the BTN. Sure, your requests and inquiries might not do any good, but considering the subscriber and stock hits they took last fall, it might get their attention. The BTN cost Comcast a fair amount of money last year, whether they want to admit it or not. Let's hope they're smart enough to realize that one BTN feed just won't cut it for out of market fans (or any Big Ten fan, for that matter).

Back Without a Vengeance

2008-03-23T13:02:00.003-04:00

End winter hibernation...

Spring Game Stuff

I’m a bit disappointed that the Spring Game won’t be at Ford Field this year, but that shouldn’t end the conversation. In fact, this should just be the beginning. The same construction issues will prevent next year’s Spring Game from being played at the Big House, so the folks in charge need to be planning a Spring Game at Ford Field in 2009, like, now. And the fans need to demand that it happens. The “we didn’t have enough time to plan it” excuse won’t cut it next year.

I’ve heard some people say that if the Spring Game can’t be at the Big House, then it shouldn’t be played at all. For real? It’s called marketing, people. Despite what you think, feel, or remember, I assure you that there are plenty of teenagers (soon to be playing football in college) who don’t know that Woodson won the Heisman. It’s time for us to enter the 21st century and stop acting like we’re above promoting our product. In terms of recruiting in and around Detroit, I think the Ford Field idea is a slam dunk. Heck, it would be a slam dunk in the eyes of the entire state, if they can pull it off the right way. Or maybe you’d rather sit out in the rain on a 42-degree day at Eastern Michigan’s stadium?

Jersey Talk

The anticipation for the new adidas jerseys got me thinking about the all-white jerseys that Michigan has sported a few times in the (distant) past. I found a good post about it on The Tunnel. Are the white pants magical?

Check out this video of Michigan Football in the 1970s – the all-whites are in full effect at 1:38, 2:33, 3:16, and 3:42. I like them, but don’t love them. They’re a notch below Penn State’s and Texas’, which set a high bar for road uniforms.

So when will the new adidas uniforms be unveiled? Based on some past adidas actions, probably not until the summer (duh). Here is what my limited research uncovered:

- Texas A&M announced the designs for their new adidas uniforms on June 25th of this past year. However, adidas was already selling A&M replica jerseys as early as April?

- Temple unveiled their new stuff a month later, on July 25th.

- A few years back, Kansas apparently waited until their media day: August 14, 2005.

- NC State didn’t unveil anything until the week before the season, back in 2004.

Taking the info above into consideration, maybe we'll see ours in June or July? Since we’re a big program, and some fans are freaking out about this, I wouldn’t expect adidas to make us wait until August. I guess the official contract begins at the end of the spring sports season (whenever that is), so maybe we’ll get an early surprise in the coming months?

The Scandal That Wasn’t

The whole Ann Arbor News “academic drama in the athletic department” story was fairly weak, but it did raise some good points. Brian had it right, I think. The system is inherently flawed, if not broken. As they used to say in 2002, don't hate the player, hate the game. But I wanted to add one unrelated thing:

This was sweet… “A university spokesman said Coleman was too busy to be interviewed, but eventually offered to answer questions via e-mail. The News declined.” Huh? If you’re looking for credibility and the trust of your reader, you might want to let the president of the University you’re attacking respond in any way that they can (or wish to), especially when the quote above was at the beginning of what was advertised as a 4-part series. I’m not saying that the whole series was a “hack job,” or whatever the term du jour is. It had some specifics that I didn’t know, but it focused on a system that everybody and their grandmother is already aware of. What I’ll take away from the series (or the quote above, at least) is that it reminded me how writers at the Ann Arbor News sometimes say stupid stuff.

Problems with a “Plus-One”

2008-01-21T15:27:00.000-05:00

Some are obvious, but worth noting...

The Pac-10 and SEC will benefit, the Big Ten and others will not

Let’s get this out there first, so maybe 17 years from now, the mainstream media will finally realize it: A “plus-one” would put the Big Ten at a competitive disadvantage. I’m not saying I’m against it. Actually, I’m all for it. I’m just saying it will probably hurt the Big Ten more than any other conference.

Under the current bowl/BCS system, Big Ten teams are playing virtual road games in bowls seemingly every year (OSU vs. LSU in New Orleans, Michigan vs. Florida in Orlando, Illinois vs. USC in Pasadena, Penn State vs. Texas A&M in San Antonio – and that’s just this season!). But imagine the 2014 college football postseason, where Michigan has to play USC in the Rose Bowl, and if they win, they get to play Miami in Miami for the national championship. Sweet!

There are other conferences that would feel the effects, too. The Big East (with the exception of South Florida), and to a lesser extent the Big 12 (unless the Cotton Bowl is included in any sort of plus-one plan – that would be great for Texas, OU, etc.). There would be an impact on the ACC, too, but Miami and Florida State would likely benefit.

If the plus-one thing happens, no matter how they set it up, then it will hurt fans who have to travel long distances for bowl games. Having 2 games in the first few weeks of January will really hurt the attendance for any Big Ten team ranked at or near the top of the polls. For instance, if the plus-one system means we go back to the old bowl setup, with an extra Championship Game afterwards, a #8 USC team might fill up the Rose Bowl with Trojan fans for a game vs. #1 Michigan. After all, that will be USC’s last game, it’s in LA, it’s against the top team in the country, etc. But Michigan fans would probably be reluctant to travel to a Rose Bowl game that they expect to win, when they are probably planning on going to the championship game the next week (or 2 weeks later, or however they set it up). Bump USC’s ranking up to #4 in the above scenario, and change the scenario to a "seeded" plus-one (#1 vs. #4, #2 vs. #3, with the winners facing off) and the Trojans would still dominate the stands, this time because they’re playing in their backyard in a virtual playoff game. The Michigan fan's dilemma remains the same: go to the USC game, wait and hope for the National Championship game, or spend a ton of money and (possibly) go to both.

In general, Pac-10 fans would have ownership of the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl locations. The SEC would control the Orange Bowl (along with Miami and FSU) and the Sugar Bowl. All of these statements have some level of truth to them now, but would be even more obvious under a plus-one system. The “semi-finals” of any plus-one game (seeded or unseeded, old bowl system or new) would essentially be a home game for any local team. The same could be said for the National Championship Game, although maybe to a lesser extent (my personal preferences might be clouding my predictions here - I would rather go to the game for all the marbles than the semi-final). This sort of disadvantage can obviously be overcome (see Michigan vs. Florida this year), but over time, the team with the home-field advantage wins more games. Someone much smarter than me also concluded, “[i]n general, the home advantage is greater in college athletics than for professional sports.”

The Politics of 1 vs. 2

Stewart Mandel says:

"[I]f you do a "pure" plus-one and revert to traditional bowl pairings, the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs play in Pasadena every year just like they always did, and then you conduct a new poll after the bowl games to determine the title participants. That method would be far clunkier, and there would be probably be years where it muddles things more than it clears them up, but it may be the only way anything's going to change." (emphasis mine)

This may be the only way things will change because the Rose Bowl folks, along with the Big Ten and Pac-10, seem adamant that they get a traditional Big Ten – Pac-10 match up more often than not. Since the start of the BCS, the Rose Bowl has gotten a Big Ten vs. Pac-10 game only 6 of 10 years. The Big Ten champion has not set foot inside the stadium since January 1, 2005. The Rose Bowl has lost top-ranked teams like USC and Ohio State to the BCS Championship Game a few times, and they are not happy about it. So to “revert back to traditional bowl pairings” might be the only way a plus-one will work, because keeping things as they are now, seeding the top 4 teams, and just playing an extra game will not appease the Rose Bowl. As plenty of others have stated over the years, they are arguably the biggest roadblock on the plus-one path.

Back to Mandel’s quote. By “clunkier,” Mandel is likely talking about the possibility of having #1 USC vs. #2 Michigan play in the Rose Bowl, before the plus-one game. And maybe you would fall into other political shadiness, like this: The Fiesta (Big 12), Orange (ACC), and Sugar (SEC) all have conference tie-ins, but the Big East is a free agent of sorts, and their champion can be selected by any BCS bowl depending on how the other selections go. Under the “pure” (as Mandel calls it) or “unseeded” (as I call it) plus-one system, we could have a scenario where #1 West Virginia is available to the Orange Bowl, but the Orange Bowl folks are getting pressure from the Big East and the BCS to pass on WVU, since #2 Virginia Tech is already automatically slotted in the Orange. So what happens there? Which politicians prevail? In the scenario above, the Orange Bowl could theoretically be forced to pass up a 1 vs. 2 match up in favor of #2 Virginia Tech vs. #10 Hawaii (or some other stinker).

Since the only bowl with two automatic bids is the Rose Bowl, the other bowls would be crazy to sign on for any sort of system that allows the Rose Bowl a 1 vs. 2 game in the “semi-final” round while denying such a game to all other bowls, as in the WVU-VT scenario above. This is just one of many potential sticking points that I've yet to see discussed, even though we’ve been talking about a plus-one for about 5 years now!

It would be great if we could go to a “seeded” plus-one, which would help minimize or eliminate the political factors. But the Rose Bowl would almost certainly not sign off on that, since it would mean more non-traditional bowl pairings, as discussed above. And when you read stuff like this:

Pac-10 commissioner Tom Hansen said last summer that a plus-one would be grounds for his conference pulling out of the BCS. Ohio State president Gordon Gee said in mid-December that a playoff would have to be "pried out of my cold, dead hands."

… well, that just makes you realize that things aren’t likely to change any time soon. And as a fan of college football, that just stinks. I'd rather have Michigan be forced to play three road games at on-campus locations to win the National Championship than continue under the ridiculous system that's currently in place.

A few things about 2008

2008-01-09T21:27:00.000-05:00

The first 5 weeks of 2008

It's a mini-tradition of mine to look ahead at each team's upcoming schedule as soon as a season is in the books. Here are some of the non-conference games that caught my eye:

August 30th

Southern Cal @ Virginia
Clemson vs. Alabama (in Atlanta)
Hawaii @ Florida
Michigan State @ Cal
Tulsa @ Texas Tech
Fresno State @ UCLA
Utah @ Michigan

September 6th

Auburn @ West Virginia
Tennessee @ UCLA
Miami @ Florida
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma
Oregon State @ Penn State

September 13th

Ohio State @ Southern Cal
Michigan @ Notre Dame
Arkansas @ Texas
Oregon @ Purdue
Kansas @ South Florida
Cal @ Maryland
Oklahoma @ Washington
Wisconsin @ Fresno State
Hawaii @ Oregon State
UCLA @ BYU (again)

September 20th

Georgia @ Arizona State
Iowa @ Pitt
Colorado @ Florida State
Miami @ Texas A&M
Boise State @ Oregon
Notre Dame @ Michigan State

September 27th

Virginia Tech @ Nebraska
West Virginia @ Colorado
Purdue @ Notre Dame

Death to all who call them the “Fighting Zookers”

Illinois had a very respectable year, even including the blowout loss against USC in the Rose Bowl. But I think we’ll find out how good they really are next season, when the schedule is a bit tougher, including:

8/30 – vs. Missouri (in St. Louis)
9/27 – @ Penn State
10/4 – @ Michigan
10/25 – @ Wisconsin
11/15 – Ohio State

They also have a potential trap game at home against Iowa on Nov. 1st (between Wisconsin and OSU). The Hawkeyes beat Illinois this past year. So could the Illini be looking at, say, 5 regular season losses? With Rashard Mendenhall going pro, I think Illinois will be taking a step back in 2008.

Speaking of Iowa, they have a fairly easy schedule next season, so a bounce-back should be in order. The Hawkeyes have "as many as 18 total starters" back, according to this extra-early Wikipedia page.

For the people who have never heard of MGoBlue.com

Here's Michigan’s 2008 Schedule:

8/30 – Utah
9/6 – Miami (OH)
9/13 - @ Notre Dame
9/20 - BYE
9/27 – Wisconsin
10/4 – Illinois (Homecoming)
10/11 – Toledo
10/18 - @ Penn State
10/25 – Michigan State
11/1 - @ Purdue
11/8 - @ Minnesota
11/15 – Northwestern
11/22 - @ Ohio State

In terms of difficulty, that's probably an average Michigan schedule. Is 4 losses the current over/under until the QB situation gets resolved? Steven Threet gotta eat!

Win Won it for Lloyd!

2008-01-02T16:35:00.000-05:00

This is going to be all over the place, and a lot of it isn’t even about the game itself:

Before I get started…

Raise your hand if you thought “here we go…” after Brandon Minor caught the ball with a foot out of bounds at the 7 yard line to open the game. I was so dispirited about the whole thing that I was actually happy we got a good spot on that play. The close-up showed that he stepped out at the 6.

What a huge win

I’m not talking about a huge win for Carr or the seniors. I’m talking about national perception. Fair or not, Michigan was being viewed as a program that was “slipping.” The losses to OSU, the bowl losses – 3 (maybe 4) straight years of offseason negativity following some disappointing finishes. So to come out and beat a media darling program like Florida, with its “genius” coach and Heisman-winning QB – that is a big win.

Let’s post an incorrect headline and then not back it up with actual info (because we can’t)!

The Express is a free mini-newspaper published by the Washington Post. In today’s edition, one headline on page 13 read “Michigan’s Passing Attack Torches Florida.” Fair enough. Right next to it, another headline read, “Vols Continue SEC’s Dominance Over the Big Ten.” And they wonder why they’re losing subscribers. This is the Washington Post, not the Tuscaloosa News. So, I guess the SEC has “dominated” the Big Ten by going 6-7 against its teams in bowl games over the past 5 seasons? You can make fun of the Jim Delany press release all you want (and deservedly so, especially regarding the academics argument), but the bottom line is that the Big Ten and SEC are generally on par with each other. The numbers don’t lie. Mainstream media: Enough of this crap!

Florida: Lloyd’s second-favorite state?

Michigan was 5-2 under Carr in the Florida bowl games (Outback, Citrus, and Orange). They had 2 wins over Florida (in Florida, remember – a virtual road game for us). And the only losses were to Alabama in Gene Stallings’ last game, and to the 2001 Tennessee team, which was probably a Top-3 team and should have been in the BCS.

Get me that DVD!

Somebody who is smarter than me needs to pass this along to the media folks at U of M. I’m sure they’ve already thought about this, but in case they haven’t: Michigan needs to release a DVD of this game, complete with extras, interviews, locker room speeches, everything. In the past few years, Michigan has sent out a DVD to season ticket holders. A fully-loaded DVD of the Michigan-Florida game would be fitting. I don’t want a season recap (too many low points) – I want a DVD of this game, because you know that ESPN Classic ain’t gonna show it.

Big Ten SPEED kills

1 – TE Carson Butler running down the sidelines like Antonio Gates on the clear.

2 – CB Morgan Trent coming from outside of the frame to track down and tackle super-speedy Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin. This play saved Michigan 7 points, as Florida ended up getting a FG blocked.

3 – WR Mario Manningham reversing field on the entire Gator defense.

A few thoughts on the last few minutes

- The defense at the end of the game was a thing of beauty. That felt and looked like a Michigan defense: 8 plays, 4 yards, zero first downs, sustained pressure, and a bunch of incompletions: Game Over.

- On offense, of course I was one of those people hoping that Lloyd would go for the jugular instead of the last field goal. And in hindsight, it appears he might have tried to. After re-watching our final 3rd-down play a few times, I think that Henne checked into the draw to Minor. My guess is primarily based on this logic: If the draw was the original call, why was Minor in for Hart? In fact, one final Lloyd nitpick: Why was Minor in for Hart under any circumstances?

- After the last FG put us up by 6, I said to my friend Ben, “the boards and the blogs are going to melt down after we lose by 1.” It was a similar situation to OSU 2005, where a first down seals the game but you get the sinking feeling that Lloyd would rather “play it safe.” The difference? In 2005, there was virtually no argument for playing it safe. Against Florida there was a legitimate one, all things considered (score, timeouts, field position, FG kicker, etc.) Thankfully it worked out, because I was ready for Brian’s head to explode. Part of me is convinced that Lopata’s kick was blocked and returned for a TD, and that I’m currently living in some sort of psychotic dream where we won, Lloyd got carried off the field, and snowflakes are actually little bits of vanilla ice cream.

Finally…

You’ve probably read this AP article somewhere today. I found it funny that the middle-aged white dude who wrote it (Larry Lage) thought they were saying “Lloyd, take off your coat,” instead of clothes. He’s not a DJ Assault fan? Shocking! Anyway, that’s comical stuff and a good article.

This was just a great football game – and isn’t it nice to end the season on a high note for what feels like the first time in forever? Wasn’t it great to see our team playing with passion and intensity (well, except for Minor’s brain fart on the opening kickoff)? A few times I was worried that we’d get flagged for all of the fake gator chomping and post-whistle jostling. Maybe I just should have taken Ron English's approach: "(Bleep) that! We're doing it for Coach Carr!" They did it, alright. Hail to the Victors!

In Rod We Trust

2007-12-16T20:02:00.000-05:00

As is often the case in these types of situations, I haven’t had enough time to let everything sink in. But it’s fair to say that I’m very excited. It’s somewhat odd that my last post was about West Virginia. I took an unannounced “leave of absence” during this coaching search because the frustrations (Ferentz?! MILES!! Ferentz again?!?! Huh? The “choppin’ wood” guy?! MILES AGAIN!! Please no Brady Hoke…) were getting to me from day one. It probably would have been nice to vent online, but you guys put up with enough of that crap already.

On Tuesday night I was out to dinner with my girlfriend, and for some reason she started asking about football formations, plays, defenses, etc. (yes, she is the coolest girl ever). At that point Rich Rodriguez was not on any of the lists being put out by the Detroit papers and Michigan websites, and it appeared that he (along with Brian Kelly) was being given the cold shoulder by the Michigan brass. But in that conversation with my girlfriend, I talked about his spread option offense, and how he arguably invented many of the intricacies of that scheme. I also talked about the 3-3-5 defense, and how I was not a big fan. Just a handful of days later, he is our head coach. Weird.

Things I’m happy about

With Rodriguez, we get a guy who is clearly a great X’s and O’s coach (heck, even Senator Tressel visited WVU this past offseason to get some tips). Rodriguez can and has re-tooled his systems to fit his personnel. If you think he’s a run-first-only type of guy, check out his work as OC and QB Coach at Tulane with Shaun King in 1998. 183.3 passing efficiency rating?! 36 TDs, 6 INTs?! We might shift to a dual-threat QB soon, but Rodriguez will know what to do with Ryan Mallett.

Rodriguez seems to be a great developer of talent. WVU has not had much recruiting success under Rodriguez, which is a bit disturbing, but he has taken plenty of off-the-radar players and made them successful contributors.

He’s young (44), and he left is alma mater to come to Michigan. There will be some debate over whether he would jump to the NFL, but I don’t see it - at least not yet. And if he does head for the pros, that will likely mean he had a very strong run at Michigan. If that’s the case, so be it.

Things I’m concerned about (but might not need to be)

As mentioned above, the 3-3-5 defense. I think it’s a system for lesser-talented teams, designed to cover up potential weaknesses. The Wikipedia gnomes say that “[t]eams that run the 3-3-5 generally use it because they are a fast but sometimes smaller unit….” I’m fine with it in certain situations, but if it’s our base defense, I’ll be a bit worried. I don’t think the 3-3-5 will fit in the Big Ten, and I think Rodriguez is smart enough to realize this.

I’m also a bit worried about how much control “Coach Rod” will actually have over assistants and the strength & conditioning program. It has long been rumored that Mike Gittelson will be retiring at the end of this season, taking his antiquated methods with him. But over the past month or so, some informed parties have stated that he might be sticking around. If Rodriguez, who is known to have a great S&C program, is handcuffed in any way, I will be upset. Similarly, current word on the street is that Rodriguez was told that he would have to keep certain assistant coaches from Michigan’s staff. Again, this is disappointing. Our new coach needs to have free rein over all facets of his coaching and training staff.

The Les Miles situation

As many others have said, there is no such thing as a fairy tale ending. If there was, Les Miles would have beaten Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game then accepted the Michigan job the next day. Now, you can argue that Michigan (Bill Martin) never wanted Miles. You could even argue that Miles was miffed at Michigan after the soap opera that was the past two weeks. But some informed people believe that Michigan would have gone after Miles after the LSU-OSU game, and that Les was still interested. However, the Rodriguez situation might have been a “bird in the hand” type of thing. So don’t feel too sorry for Michigan, and don’t feel too sorry for Les Miles. Michigan got a great coach who many would argue is a better football mind than Les Miles. And Miles has a great program at LSU, where he will undoubtedly continue to be successful. I will always root for Les, and it would have been nice to have seen him in Ann Arbor – it just wasn’t meant to be. Blame it on the BCS Championship, blame it on Lloyd Carr, blame Canada - whatever. Life will go on.

Is this weird for you? I thought you hated West Virginia?!

Hate is too strong of a word, but I have made a few posts that were critical of WVU and the Big East. The main reasons for these posts are because I don’t think that WVU and the rest of the Big East have a lot of talent/depth, and teams like WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers have benefited from the departures of Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College. Point #1 is based on recruiting rankings, which are arguably flawed. Point #2 is based on common sense: 3 good teams left the Big East and other teams rose up to replace them. It’s not that I think they play crappy football in the Big East, I just wonder if their success has been accomplished with smoke and mirrors.

That being said, I can certainly separate the team from the coach. Rodriguez has forgotten more about football than I will ever dream of knowing, and top-notch coaches consistently sing his praises. Even if I think his WVU teams have been overrated at times, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t coached his butt off. Coach Rod is clearly a guy that will give Michigan a schematic advantage in most of its games. We have great talent, now we have a great coach. There’s reason to be excited about Michigan football again.

Bottom Line?

"Bottom line -- Michigan stepped up to the plate," said SuperPrep recruiting analyst Allen Wallace. "They've gone out and stolen one of the elite coaches in the game. If I were a Michigan fan, I'd be having a party tonight." And with that, I’m outta here.

WVU and the BCS

2007-11-25T20:21:00.000-05:00

As I contemplated just how upset I would be if Kirk Ferentz ends up being Michigan's next head coach (right now, "extremely"), I had some thoughts about the team that has become my second-favorite blog topic: the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Who did WVU play and beat?

West Virginia is about to waltz into the BCS Championship Game. Don't say I didn't warn you. I'll be interested to see if any talking heads mention WVU's relatively easy schedule, or if people just give it to them without a discussion. Think about this for a second: The Mountaineers will likely be playing for the BCS Championship without having defeated a single team in the current BCS Top 20. And on top of that, the best team they played (#21 South Florida) beat them. If WVU makes it to New Orleans, I'm pretty sure they will be the first team with those odd distinctions. I'm not saying that West Virginia isn't a good team. I think White, Slaton, and Devine can burn anybody on any given day. But did they earn a BCS Title shot, or did they just benefit from the rest of the big boys beating up on each other?

What about the Buckeyes?

One thing in WVU's favor is that Ohio State's schedule isn't that pretty, either. Here's one thing I was thinking about: If OSU had lost at Illinois (instead of at home), and if WVU had lost at home to South Florida (instead of on the road), would OSU have a leg up on WVU? And even as it stands now, how much of an argument does OSU have if there's a "snub" on Sunday's BCS selection show? Seeing that Illinois gave #1 Missouri all they could handle and might get a BCS berth while South Florida cooled off a bit, I think OSU has a legitimate beef. But last year's loss to Florida will come back to haunt the Buckeyes if WVU and Missouri win on Saturday. National perception matters, fair or not.

Final random thoughts

In a year as crazy as this one has been, why are 2-loss teams being left out of the discussion? And if this was the mid-90s, LSU would be undefeated with 2 ties. Would that matter? Just some stuff to think about...

Thank you, Lloyd

2007-11-19T21:47:00.000-05:00

I’m no good when it comes to nostalgia, but I definitely want to thank Lloyd Carr for everything that he’s done for Michigan Football. His successes both on and off the field have been, as he would say, tremendous. Not perfect, of course, but nothing to be ashamed of – not by a long shot. There were disappointments and frustrations along the way, but those are overshadowed by a lot of great memories and big victories. And beyond that, Lloyd ran what is generally considered to be a very clean program (especially by “big time football” standards). He might have been short with the media at times, but after seeing how some of those folks refused to give credit to Brian last week after reporting on the story that he broke (“internet reports” … idiots), I say good for him. Lloyd loved his players and he loves Michigan. That’s why I will always respect and admire him.

He wasn’t the best game strategist in the world, but he put up some quality results. If you would have told me that Carr would close out his career with 9 straight wins over PSU and 6 (or, 8) straight wins over MSU, I would have taken that in a heartbeat. On the other hand, if you would have told me that he would struggle with some weaker Notre Dame teams and finish with 6 losses in 7 years against OSU, I might have said “no, thanks.” But overall, it was a good run. Lloyd’s most ardent supporters often point to 1997, 1999, and 2006, but I think there was a nice “peak” to Lloyd’s career, and it only started with 1997. The seven year run that Carr had from 1997 to 2003 was a good one. Very good:

69-18 overall record: 79% winning percentage

46-10 Big Ten record: 82% winning percentage

1 National Title

4 Big Ten Titles

5-2 in bowl games: All New Year’s Day bowls, or better. The 2 losses came to #1 USC and #8 Tennessee (which was arguably a Top 3 or 4 team that season)

5 ten win seasons

4-3 vs. Ohio State: Including 2 wins when OSU was ranked #4

6-0 vs. Penn State: Including the “Judgment Day” domination

6-0 vs. Wisconsin: Including 2 wins in years when Wisconsin went to (and won) the Rose Bowl

5-2 vs. Michigan State: Or 6-1, if you take away Clockgate

3-2 vs. Notre Dame: Including the first beatdown (38-0 in 2003)

If our next coach can duplicate those results, I’ll be a happy dude. So thank you, Lloyd. Thank you for 1997, for keeping Michigan a top program, for your integrity, and for knowing that it was time to retire. Thank you, and Go Blue!

My arm got squeezed!!

2007-11-15T22:41:00.000-05:00

A few quick things after a long absence and before what should be a crazy weekend:

- Prior to the Michigan-Georgetown basketball game tonight, the UMDC alumni association had John Beilein come speak for a few minutes before the game (about 6:15 p.m., IIRC). I was waiting for my girlfriend at the door, and when Coach Beilein came in, I got to talk to him for a quick minute. He seemed like a nice guy - very personable, firm handshake, appreciative of the support... all the things you'd expect from a coach. We had the entire first floor of Clyde's packed with Michigan fans, and Coach Beilein actually got up on one of the bar area tables to talk to us. I don't remember every word, but he mentioned something like "If you could see our practices, they look like middle school practices." Talked about fundamentals, asked that we be patient with the team, said that the team will grow throughout the year, etc. Finished it with something like, "On Saturday, let's beat the snot out of the Buckeyes." Yes, he definitely said "snot," which I found amusing. This of course led to a big cheer and a chorus of The Victors. I think I saw a tourist or two in the corner, probably wondering what in the world was going on.

- Maybe more important, depending on how you dissect it, was my quick pseudo-conversation with Associate Athletic Director Greg Harden (Who is Greg Harden? This is Greg Harden - a really cool guy, it seems). Coach Beilein had introduced him and another member of the staff, and I leaned over to Mr. Harden and said "You guys have called Les Miles, right?" He just smiled (knowingly? It was hard to tell). I said "You know you've got him." At that point, he shook my hand and gave me some sort of arm squeeze (with his other hand). It was like two quick squeezes, hand grasping the biceps, and it really left me befuddled. He walked away without saying a word. A smile, a handshake, and an arm squeeze. I relayed this story to a few friends, and they all seemed to think that it was telling re: Miles coming to U of M (some more than others). I have no idea what to make of it, I'm just posting it because (1) people seem to love to read the tea leaves, especially this week (rightfully so), and (2) I have no idea what it meant, if anything!

- The b-ball game was what it was. Kelvin Grady is a good player and someone we really could have used the past few years (a guard and a player who goes all out all the time). Manny Harris is a pure basketball player, but he needs more experience and improved fundamentals. Ron Coleman needs to not start, and arguably needs to not play. He just looked BAD tonight. Rebounding was weak and the team looked a bit lost at times. But there was some flow on offense, which was a good sign after years of Amaker-ball. Georgetown is a very good team, so I'm not sure how upset to be about the loss. It's clear that we don't have many pure shooters, and when DeShawn Sims has a bad night (like tonight) we're going to struggle. Zach Gibson might end up being a pleasant surprise. He had a few "hustle" type of rebounds and defensive plays.

- One random thing that I wrote down on Saturday but never posted. Don't necessarily trust the ESPN ticker! After years of near-perfect accuracy, the ESPN ticker was all messed up for the Texas - Texas Tech game. During Ron Zook's post-game presser, ESPN's ticker said "Texas Tech 10, Texas 39 - 9:00 left 4th quarter." I knew this was wrong since on my other TV was the game itself: Texas Tech 28, Texas 38 - 9:00 left 4th quarter. Come on, ESPN!

- I'm off to Ann Arbor. MUST BEAT OHIO STATE. Win one for Lloyd (and Hart, and Henne, and Long...). See you there... Go Blue!

Lloyd Carr vs. Les Miles: To the Death!

2007-11-01T20:03:00.000-04:00

"No! To the pain…"

As the season winds down, bowl projections and BCS selections move to the forefront of the discussion. Additionally, the “Les Miles to Michigan” buzz is slowly but surely building. So I wanted to talk about this stuff for a second. With all due respect to my friend Ben, who contends that the powers that be won’t let it happen (more on that later), I think that a Michigan-LSU bowl game is a possibility. Granted, there are thousands of “what if” scenarios still on the table. I’m just saying that Michigan-LSU isn’t unfathomable. Let’s break it down…

Unless the college football world gets completely turned on its head, Michigan isn’t going to play for the BCS Championship. Shocking, I know. While the big prize isn’t attainable anymore, Michigan’s bowl destination won’t be as bad as most predicted after the 0-2 start. Seeing that Michigan has zero Big Ten losses and every other conference team (except OSU, obviously) has at least 2, Michigan will almost certainly end up in the Rose Bowl, Capitol One (Citrus) Bowl, or Outback Bowl.

LSU, on the other hand, has bigger things in mind. The Tigers are on path to play in the BCS Championship Game or finish just outside the Top 2 in the final BCS standings (prompting plenty of hootin' and hollerin' from SEC country, no doubt). However, these scenarios assume that LSU will run the table. Take a look at LSU’s remaining schedule:

@ Alabama
Louisiana Tech
@ Ole Miss
Arkansas
SEC Championship Game

Not a daunting slate, but a tough road game in Tuscaloosa this weekend and the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta (where they might face local favorite Georgia) are potential roadblocks.

So how (and where) could Michigan and LSU meet up? As I see it, there are four bowls in which the Wolverines and Tigers could play each other, and some bowl destinations have more than one scenario under which each team could get there. Here’s my take, from most ideal scenario to least:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion)

Michigan gets there by:

Winning the Big Ten championship.

This is fairly simple. Win out, and Michigan is in the Rose. Lose to MSU, then win the last 2, and Michigan is in the Rose. Beat MSU, lose to Wisconsin, and beat OSU… and Michigan still would be in the Rose, provided Wisconsin has lost one more game before the end of the season (which they might this Saturday against OSU). Since Michigan controls its own destiny, and can probably afford a loss to either MSU or Wisconsin, a Big Ten title is very possible. Once again, it will probably be a “one game season.”

Winning their next 2 games before losing to OSU.

This scenario is unlikely, but not impossible. Rivals.com thinks Michigan heads to the Rose after a loss to OSU, and considering (1) the lack of quality BCS teams this year, and (2) the Rose Bowl’s stated preference for Big Ten and Pac-10 teams, Michigan could get an invite. Again, this is doubtful but not unimaginable. However, this would make 4 of 5 years with Michigan in the Rose Bowl, with the last 3 Rose Bowl trips all coming after losses to OSU. Does the Rose Bowl really want us if that’s the case?

LSU gets there by:

Receiving an at-large BCS bid.

This is where it gets more confusing, primarily because we have no idea who will be in the BCS Championship Game. But assuming a Pac-10 team like Oregon or Arizona State is one of the teams there, the Rose Bowl would either get first or second pick of the at-large teams (depending on if the BCS standings). Then, LSU becomes ridiculously attractive to the Rose Bowl:

- Good team that spent the majority of the year in the Top 5.
- Unbelievably rabid fan base – no problem selling tickets.
- Michigan and LSU have never met. (The Rose Bowl loved the first meeting between Texas and Michigan, no doubt.)
- The whole “Miles is replacing Carr” storyline.
- Not to mention the “Miles coached at Michigan under Bo” storyline.
- Would likely guarantee them the most interesting BCS game (beside the Championship), even if both teams are coming off of losses.
- High TV ratings (SEC vs. Big Ten).
- LSU’s first trip to the Rose Bowl. In fact, LSU’s first bowl game on the West Coast.
- And the list goes on…

Taking a step back… This scenario assumes that there is no Pac-10 team with an attractive resume, and that is a big assumption. The loser of Oregon/ASU this weekend will likely be a decent choice, and if USC finishes the season on a winning streak you know their name will be in the mix. If LSU is going to end up in the Rose Bowl, they might need another USC loss and a really bad finish from either Oregon or Arizona State.

Keep in mind that if LSU loses at Alabama this weekend, and Alabama runs the table (at Miss State, vs. LA-Monroe, at Auburn), LSU is shut out of the SEC Championship Game and likely finishes the season with 2 losses. This is a similar situation to last year, where LSU “avoided” a potential 3rd loss by not having to play in the SEC Championship Game, and received a BCS at-large berth.

Also note that LSU theoretically could get a Rose Bowl invite with as many as 3 losses, assuming they’re still in the BCS top 14 (and thus BCS eligible). See my discussion of how Michigan could get to the Sugar Bowl to understand the rationale for that one - the "LSU in the Rose Bowl" argument is pretty much analogous.

Sugar Bowl (SEC Champion vs. At-Large)

Michigan gets there by:

Receiving an at-large BCS bid

If Michigan does not win the Big Ten, that means that they will have lost one of their last two games (most likely a loss to OSU). Since the Sugar Bowl is set up as an “SEC vs. At-Large” bowl, the Sugar will not have one of the first at-large selections under this scenario, since they wouldn’t have “lost” a team to the BCS Championship Game. A 9-3 Michigan team is usually not that attractive to BCS bowl committees, but compared to some of the leftovers that might be available (Virginia Tech (who’s already played LSU), Kansas, Connecticut, Missouri, Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and so on) Michigan is the biggest draw, even if they have a few more losses than some of the available schools. Note that this scenario assumes a 9-3 Michigan team would be ranked in the Top 14 of the BCS. One valid argument against this happening is that if LSU finishes the season with just 1 loss, the Sugar Bowl (and LSU, for obvious reasons) would probably prefer to pit the Tigers against the highest-rated team at-large team available in order to give LSU an outside shot at a split national title. Michigan wouldn't be that team. If LSU finishes with 2 losses and an SEC Championship, this match-up is more likely, but still a long shot.

LSU gets there by:

Winning the SEC, but not finishing 1st or 2nd in the BCS standings.

Pretty self-explanatory, right?

Capitol One Bowl (Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2)

Michigan gets there by:

Not winning the Big Ten, and not receiving an at-large BCS bid.

This is arguably the most likely scenario for Michigan, at least as things stand right now. OSU and Michigan are the class of the Big Ten, and if Michigan loses The Game they will likely head to Orlando for the Bowl Formerly Known as the Citrus.

LSU gets there by:

Not winning the SEC, and not receiving an at-large BCS bid.

This is a much less likely bowl destination for LSU than it is for Michigan, but it isn’t unrealistic. It would obviously require a loss in the SEC Championship (assuming they make it) coupled with at least one more loss in the regular season. If LSU doesn’t make the SEC Championship Game, it would probably require 2 losses in their final 4 regular season games.

Outback Bowl (Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3 or #4)

Michigan gets there by:

One word: Implosion.

I don’t even want to think about this. Losing to MSU and/or Wisconsin, and losing to OSU – that’s how we “earn” a visit to Tampa.

LSU gets there by:

An implosion that makes Michigan’s implosion look like a day at the park.

LSU is currently the only SEC team with one loss. To fall behind teams like Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, or Florida (a team they beat) in the SEC pecking order would mean a rough finish and an embarrassing loss or two.

So how realistic is a Michigan-LSU match-up?

I don’t know what sort of percentage to put on it… 3%? The bottom line is that Michigan is going to a bowl game, and the opponent could very well be an SEC team. LSU is an SEC team. Plug that into some crappy formula, and there you have it: “a chance.” Earth-shattering stuff, huh?

I think the Outback Bowl (please no) and Sugar Bowl scenarios are glorified pipe dreams (or nightmares, re: Outback). I think the Rose Bowl scenario is possible, but a very long shot. I think that out of the four bowl destinations, the Capitol One is clearly the most likely, as it’s the most likely outcome for Michigan and the 3rd-most likely scenario for LSU (after a BCS automatic bid and a BCS at-large bid).

But there are political factors at play, no doubt. Would the powers that be prevent such a match-up, as my friend Ben asserts? And who are the powers that be, anyway? How much pull do the schools have? Questions abound:

- Would the Michigan big shots be able to persuade the Rose Bowl to pass on LSU (in favor of a less-attractive option)?- Would LSU want to play Michigan, all things considered?
- Would the Michigan big shots kindly ask the Sugar Bowl reps to not select the Wolverines, even if that meant Michigan would be going to the Capitol One Bowl instead of a BCS game?
- Could the teams trade coaches prior to kickoff, so as to give Miles a “test run” at Michigan before Bill Martin shells out the big bucks?

I know I spent way too much time and energy on this post, and that it will come back to haunt me in the form of a loss to Michigan State this weekend, but that’s life. I also realize that considering the political issues, this is more like a Jim Carrey Dumb and Dumber style “so you’re saying there's a chance” situation. And because I want Les Miles as our next head coach, I’m not sure I want said game to take place. Just something to think about…

Help a dude out: Trinity @ Millsaps – The untold (and unkown?) story

2007-11-01T18:47:00.000-04:00

After talking to some friends about the crazy ending that everybody has seen by now, I realized that many people aren’t aware of this: Millsaps (a.k.a. “the team that lost”) had a chance to run out the clock on the previous play. Word? Word! As this article states:

“[W]ith eight seconds remaining the [Millsaps] Majors took their last time out to avoid a delay of game penalty…. On fourth down, Millsaps quarterback Burt Pereira slowly faded to his left. He was unable to evade Trinity's Ryan Johnson, and with two seconds left -- and 60 yards from the end zone -- Trinity had one desperate last chance.”

After reading that article and listening to Trinity’s coach on ESPN’s College Football Live on Monday, I was pretty sure that Millsaps was trying to kill the clock as opposed to going for the first down. But after looking around online, I’m not sure about anything.

What I’m trying to figure out is whether there was another major coaching blunder here. Obviously there was with the 15-lateral play, but that’s another story. So what was going on here? Did Millsaps (and former Alabama) head coach Mike DuBose completely blow it on that 4th down play? Did the QB mess up? Did the defender make a great play? What happened?! Unfortunately, the internet is filled with a bunch of quotes that aren’t too big on the details, like this: “Millsaps had tried to run out the clock but was unsuccessful, giving the ball back to Trinity after a failed fourth-down run.” Um... OK.

We know that there were 8 seconds on the clock, which is a decent amount of time to kill (but not impossible). We know that the ball was somewhere past midfield, near the Millsaps 40-yard line. One unknown is what was the distance required for a first down? After some digging, I saw that Lawpundit
has an apparent copy & paste which states that “Millsaps went for the first down on 4th and 2 at … the Trinity 40-yard line and failed to make it,” but the link related to that copy/paste doesn’t say anything about 4th-and-2. Maybe the original author edited or corrected the “4th and 2” statement? I don’t know... but this only added to my frustration.

So, to recap, can anybody clarify this for me? Specifically:

- How many yards did Millsaps need on that 4th down?
- On what yard line was the ball spotted to begin that 4th down?

And most importantly…

- Did Millsaps appear to be trying to gain a first down, or trying to run out the clock?

Any other related info would be appreciated. Please forward the permalink for this post (see below) to anybody who might know the answer(s). I won’t rest until the truth is revealed! Is Mike DuBose the worst coach in America, or just a guy who teaches his defenders to play zone defense (basketball style)?

Michigan 27, Illinois 17: Random thoughts, as usual

2007-10-23T21:52:00.000-04:00

The Man kept me down last week, which was disappointing on many levels, but mainly disappointing because I went to the Purdue game and had some extra random thoughts. But that’s old news. About Illinois:

- On our 3rd-and-goal from the 8 yard line on our first scoring drive (which ended with a FG to make it 7-3), Jeremy Ciulla moved early, but a false start wasn’t called. Just another criticism on a night where he looked completely lost at times. The right side of the line was sub-par, and the center-quarterback exchange continues to be a mess. Steve Schilling had his worst game of his career. Illinois was one of the nation’s best in terms of sacks entering the game, so I’m hoping that they were just “on” and we were just “off.” Otherwise, we might get a wake up call against Michigan State, who has had strong DL play.

- Max Pollock was at LB on the weak side for a 3rd-and-1 to open the 2nd quarter. Word? Jonas Mouton was playing a few downs at what appeared to be MLB in the 2nd quarter, as well.

- The whole Mallett/Carr “argument” is being way overblown. My thoughts: (1) Mallett, as I’ve said before, continues to show very good pocket presence for a freshman, (2) he was holding the ball in his throwing hand, waving it back and forth as he moved; he was lucky it didn’t get stripped (I’m pretty sure this was Carr’s main beef), (3) do people really think that players don’t get seriously chewed out from time to time (in games, practice, film room)? This wasn’t the first time for Ryan and it won’t be the last, and (4) despite ABC showing Mallett appearing upset after the incident (with his helmet still on on the sideline), Mallett was celebrating like a madman after the Arrington-to-Manningham TD and could also be seen actively engaged in the game during other sideline shots. He will be fine, his relationship with Lloyd will be fine, and he’ll be a great QB for Michigan. On a side note, the play-calling while Mallett was in the game was giving me bad flashbacks to the Northwestern game.

- Were we lucky to win? I’m inclined to say “no.” Entering the 4th quarter, we had turned the ball over 3 times, and Illinois hadn’t turned it over yet. In the 4th quarter, yes, we got a complete gift on the muffed punt, but there were plenty of plays that didn’t go our way at crucial points in the game. How about the tipped-ball interception at our 40-yard line when we were down 7-0 and we looked like a bunch of deer in the headlights? How about a handful of fumbled snaps, resulting in one turnover near the red zone and a few wasted downs? Illinois played undisciplined football, but we weren’t exactly mistake-free. We didn’t commit many penalties, but we didn’t bring our “A” game by any stretch of the imagination.

- Speaking of the muffed punt, there was definitely a whistle blown before the play ended. I am 83% sure that it came from the referee who was standing behind the punter (and who eventually made the call that it was Michigan’s ball). After the play, you can clearly see the punt returner motioning that he heard a whistle. During the play (which is the reason for my 83%), you can clearly see the ref put his whistle in his mouth way early – like he is anticipating the play being over ASAP.

- John Ferrara got absolutely frozen on an option read where Juice Williams picked up a big gain. That was painful to watch. Herbstreit called him out on it, adding insult to injury. I don’t mind playing these young guys (like Ferrara and Renaldo Sagesse), but what’s the deal with playing them so early and so often lately? Are the DL starters really that out of shape? Are these guys impressing in practice?

- Just a reminder: If you’re gonna give Lloyd credit for 6 wins in a row (which I will), you can’t let him slide on the first 2 games of the season. Instead of all of this stuff about how this is “Lloyd’s best coaching job,” wouldn’t it have been nice to have actually beaten Appalachian State?... or maybe come within a dozen of Oregon? I understand that people are impressed that Lloyd was able to keep the team motivated and fairly well-prepared after those debacles. Avoiding those debacles would have been the preferred route, obviously. As is often the case, Brian put it nicely:

“Of course I am hung up on the first two games of the year. I would remind you that we went from national championship contenders to national laughingstocks in two quick weeks in the senior years of Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart largely because the team was woefully ill-prepared to stop a I-AA team that could not throw. The horrendous coaching breakdowns that led to the parade of mistakes do continue to color my opinion of the team and the year and will do so until the sun expands and consumes the earth. Given Carr's well-established track record it would be silly to do otherwise.”

- Our kick return blocking was horrendous. Just terrible. But Lloyd’s teams are always fundamentally sound, right? We certainly don’t need a Special Teams coach… nope!

- Zoltan’s acting skills are top notch. There wasn’t much contact on the roughing the punter penalty, but he sold it like Ric Flair in his prime. Woooooo!

- After Manningham’s first TD reception, Carson Butler got into it with #44 from Illinois. #44 pushed Butler when Carson came over to celebrate the TD. Then Butler threw an open-handed left to the dude’s face. It was not a punch, since there was no closed fist, but it sure looked like one until I slow-mo’d it. This all took place right in front of a ref, who must have seen it. #44 turned to him for a penalty, but to no avail. The Illinois player wasn’t innocent, but Butler needs to keep his cool. That was dumb, dumb, dumb, and the type of “retaliation” penalty that is usually called.

Post-EMU, Pre-Purdue

2007-10-11T18:31:00.000-04:00

Michigan stuff:

- Some people have noted that Junior Hemingway looked much shorter than they imagined. If he’s 6’3” (like the official roster says he is), then I’m Andre the Giant. There’s no way he’s as tall as Arrington.

- Now that we’re finally playing a team with a pulse, we get into “if we win this game” territory. I’m not going to get into that stuff, but if we beat Purdue and Illinois avoids a letdown at Iowa, it sounds like ESPN College Gameday might be at Illinois next weekend.

- So just when people are starting to praise Morgan Trent and talking about how Donovan Warren is the next Marlin Jackson, Ty Law, or any other very good cornerback not named Woodson, Purdue comes to town and might put up 50 passes (considering the relatives strengths/weaknesses of each team). While we have been solid against Purdue’s attack in the past, this is 2007, and in 2007 Michigan loses to Appalachian State. Two things that worry me: (1) We didn’t play Purdue last year, and (2) our play in the defensive backfield has almost been too good to be true the past few games.

- Steve Schilling at RG and Mark Ortmann at RT struggled at times, especially Schilling (who gave up a 3rd down sack in the red zone). I didn’t re-watch the game this week, but I thought their run-blocking was decent. I was actually surprised at how many times we ran right. Of course we do this against Eastern Michigan…

Other college football stuff:

- This was the 2nd straight week of great college football, partly due to a few upsets. I tend to enjoy these types of weekends more when Michigan plays a Noon game against a weaker opponent, as opposed to an important game later in the day (like PSU 2005, which was playing opposite the classic USC-ND game).

- After discussing it with Jake over the past few weeks, I have Les Miles at #1 and Jeff Tedford at #2, head and shoulders above any other potential coaching candidates. Even if Miles loses a game or two, I think I’ll still be on the bandwagon. Some might argue that having Miles NOT win a National Championship this year is in Michigan’s best interest (assuming they want to hire him). His price would go up, he might be tempted to build a dynasty at LSU, and Michigan would have to wait an extra week to interview/hire him (since the BCS Championship Game is in the 2nd week of January). On a related note, Kirk Ferentz has lost 8 straight Big Ten games. So the only time I want to hear his name is when we are adding to the list of reasons why he should NOT be hired.

- You might hate ESPN, you might hate Lou Holtz, but you folks are consistently talking about his “Pep Talk” segment week in and week out. I’m still amazed by that magic trick. I have been ever since I saw some dude (a Michigan alum, no less) do it at Ben and Karen’s rehearsal dinner.

- I’m sure you heard about JoePa's (alleged) road rage. I’ve had a beef with JoePa for a few years now, but I don’t want to see his time at PSU come to an ugly end.

Optimist/Pessimist - Northwestern edition

2007-10-04T17:23:00.000-04:00

Optimist

- The schedule is still in our favor. A pseudo-scrimmage against Eastern Michigan will allow both Henne and Mallett to get playing time, and our injury issues might be cleared up by the time we play Purdue.

- Henne looked good. He made one really bad throw, missing a wide-open Arrington on the right sideline for what should have been a TD. But all things considered (knee injury, “rust,” the way he looked in the first two games), he seemed fine. Henne’s resurgence (or whatever you want to call it) will persuade DeBord to open up the playbook, and we have the talent to surprise some folks.

- The defense has made halftime adjustments when needed (which, unfortunately, is often). Oregon was over at the half, and Notre Dame is terrible, so our defensive stats from those second halves don’t matter. Against Appalachian State, we gave up two FGs after giving up four TDs in the first half. And at Northwestern, we shut them out after halftime. Both games included key second half takeaways by the defense, too.

- Sure, the team came out flat, but they had just ended what was possibly the most emotional four weeks in Michigan Football history. And it was against Northwestern.

- Brandon Graham, Shawn Crable, and the rest of the DL woke up in the second half and made a handful of outstanding individual plays. We’ve seen some of that in the past and should expect more in the future.

- We won the game. We’ve won three straight. We’re 2-0 in the Big Ten, with time to improve.

Pessimist

- We couldn’t run on Northwestern. Northwestern. Yes, the play-calling (another thing to be worried about) was horrible, but we still couldn’t execute. Adam Kraus, pre-season All Big Ten in many eyes, got abused by Northwestern’s DL. It was really bad.

- Mike DeBord has consistently run left (often to the short side) against an 8-man front on 1st down, as opposed to taking advantage of single coverage on Manningham and/or Arrington. Talking to fans who attended the Northwestern game, this was their #1 complaint (and there were many, since the issues seemed much more pronounced watching from the stands). Northwestern had the 114th-ranked pass efficiency defense, and Michigan did pretty much nothing to exploit it until they were down by 9 at halftime. That’s DeBord in a nutshell, my friends. I know I'm like the 600th person to point this out, but still.

- Mallett made a couple of impressive throws, but looked average for the most part. Again, he wasn’t helped by DeBord, who put him in some third-and-longs after running Hart into a stacked Northwestern defensive front on first and second downs. If Henne gets hurt again...

- The poor tackling continues. And as a result, the back 7 was beaten by one of the slower running backs in the conference (that wasn’t Tyrell Sutton out there) for a long TD run. And probably the one guy with the fundamentals to make consistent tackles (Brandent Englemon) was too slow to catch him. That entire play was ugly.

- For the third time in five games, the team came out flat. Actually, this seems to fit with Lloyd’s M.O. While the team often plays with passion against Ohio State, Penn State, and others, they seem to be unmotivated against weaker opponents. This is the second straight year where we looked uninspired against Northwestern.

- We lack an adequate kicker, and we have no homerun threat on kick or punt returns. Brandon Minor seems more likely to slip or run into a defender than break a return for a big gain.

Realist

The world did not end. But if this type of play-calling continues, coupled with the requisite defensive breakdowns, we will lose 2 or 3 more games. If we try to “establish the run” the entire first half against Purdue, we will lose. For the rest of the season, the play-calling needs to be great – on both sides of the ball. That means no pointless 3-man fronts and/or blitzes from a safety who is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage, Mr. English. Unfortunately, my confidence in the coaches is at an all-time low (and that's saying something). I hope they can prove me wrong.

Penn State game thoughts

2007-09-23T21:00:00.000-04:00

- Can you imagine losing to any team 9 times in a row? Our record against OSU recently is pretty bad, but 9 in a row?! Wow. And it would probably be 11 in a row if Michigan hadn’t missed two of Penn State’s worst teams in recent memory thanks to the rotating Big Ten schedule (2003 and 2004).

- Penn State played an ideal game… if you’re a Michigan fan, that is. And this ain’t the first time we’ve seen it. The PSU offensive gameplan against Michigan has continually made Mike DeBord look like Mike Leach. And I thought I was frustrated with our predictability on offense. On a related note, did you notice that we actually ran away from the “shuffling fullback” a few times against Penn State? And it worked!

- Mallett’s 3rd-and-11 completion in the 4th quarter, where he avoided a sack (or two) and made the completion to Greg Mathews, was the key play of the game, in my opinion. His pocket presence isn’t perfect, but it’s clear that he has natural instincts to make something out of nothing, which is a characteristic we haven’t seen in a long time in a Michigan QB. I like Henne, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen him make a play like that.

- While the play-calling wasn’t flawless, I was fine with it. Even though Mallett appears to have “it,” he’s still going to make mistakes. At the end of the half, he threw a bad INT the play after missing 2 open receivers in the end zone. And he almost got picked on an out route at another point. So even though we ended up in 2nd-and-long a handful of times, we also ended up in 2nd or 3rd-and-short a fair amount. And Mallett did his part then – he was surprisingly efficient on 3rd down. But overall, we did the right thing by letting Mike Hart carry us. He is unreal.

- In case you missed it, Michigan will win the Big Ten outright if they win out. Indiana and Iowa, the two teams that Michigan doesn’t face this season, both lost on Saturday. Win out and we’re in the Rose Bowl. But there’s obviously a long way to go. The schedule still sets up nicely, as we can get healthy the next two weeks before a big game against Purdue.

- So I chastise Manningham for dogging it a few weeks ago and he comes out and makes me look like the fool that I am. Against ND, he was clearly on his game, running and even celebrating hard (watch Mathews’ TD). Then this week he picks up a huge first down on a reverse that probably should have been stopped for a 3-yard loss. His effort can’t be questioned as it stands right now. Let’s hope that he can get into a deep ball groove with Mallett soon, and that it continues when Henne returns.

- Brandon Graham is really good. So good that I’m already starting to worry about him not coming back for his senior year in 2009. He could be the defensive force that we need to complete a national championship run, but I could never blame a guy for going pro.

- Jamar Adams played his best game in a Michigan uniform. His pass interference penalty on PSU’s TE Quarless, in retrospect, might have saved the game. Adams was all over the field, and almost always in the right place. It was nice to see very solid safety play for the first time in a long time.

Post-ND, Week 3 in CFB

2007-09-17T16:39:00.000-04:00

- Utah destroying UCLA was a bit of a surprise, but one that I’m happy about. I was getting a bit tired of Mark May’s UCLA love fest.

- The Big East isn’t that bad, but they still aren’t that good. I have to give them some credit, because I’m always the first to criticize them. USF’s win at Auburn 2 weeks ago doesn’t look as impressive after Auburn lost at home to Mississippi State, but a win at Auburn, at night, is always a tough task. Cincinnati looks solid, too. Their offense gets lots of hype, and Brian Kelly is “the next hot young offensive-minded coach,” but their defense is pretty good, too. Still, WVU and Rutgers haven’t really played anybody yet, and Louisville clearly isn’t that great, losing to Kentucky on Saturday (although Kentucky isn’t the Kentucky of old this year).

- Brandon Graham finally played a full game, and played well. He was credited with 3.5 of our 8 sacks, and he was all over the field. He made a great run-down/sack on Jimmy Clausen near the sideline – probably his best play, of many.

- Attention Michigan big shots: Don’t hire Kirk Ferentz. One game doesn’t make or break a coach, but Saturday’s 15-13 loss at Iowa State was a BAD loss that brought to light some disturbing info about Ferentz that I wasn't aware of: he is 3-6 against Iowa State. In a year in which you don’t play Michigan or Ohio State, and you could sneak your way into a Big Ten championship, you have to win your non-conference games, because that most likely will be the tiebreaker that separates your team from the Wolverines and Buckeyes. Apparently Ferentz didn’t learn his lesson in 2002, when the Hawkeyes lost to the Cyclones and watched OSU “Krenzel” its way to an undefeated season. Iowa State actually had a pulse back then, but this year, we’re talking about a team that lost to Kent State by 9 and Northern Iowa by 11, both at home and both at night. I understand that Iowa-ISU is a big rivalry game, but come on! This is not the type of guy we need going up against Tressel, or even Mark Dantonio... Or even Charlie Weis (zing!). I was ambivalent about Ferentz before, but after reading about that game and realizing how bad he has been against his in-state rival (who is usually mediocre, at best, and was horrible when Ferentz took over a fairly healthy Iowa program), I only want Ferentz in Ann Arbor if he’s coaching against Michigan.

- Tommy Bowden has no class.

- The over/under on USC sacks against Notre Dame should be 11. When you combine horrible pass protection, a center who is unreliable on shotgun snaps, and a general lack of “push,” you get one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen. At one point in the 4th Quarter against Michigan, ND had -52 yards rushing. So how long does the Charlie Weis honeymoon last? For a guy who is supposed to be an offensive “genius,” his team has looked pathetic. For what it’s worth, ND is a 14 point underdog at home against Michigan State this weekend. Wow.

- I’m pretty sure that Lloyd is telling Bryan Wright to aim his kicks to his left from time to time, in an attempt to get them as close to the sideline as possible. This backfired against ND when his kick went out of bounds. The same thing almost happened against Oregon, but a good bounce kept the ball inside the pylon in the end zone. Speaking of Wright, he appeared to have some sort of injury, as he went into the locker room with a trainer early in the game. He later returned to the sidelines but not to the game. Some people missed that, I think.

- The PSU game is unbelievably important. If we want a shot at the Big Ten title, we have to win. And if we lose, a January 1st bowl might be out of reach. This is one of the rare September Big Ten games where the outcome will go a long way in determining the championship. If Michigan can pull out a victory, the schedule sets up nicely for the rest of the season. Henne can take his time and heal properly, and the defense can (hopefully) fix some things and gain some much-needed experience. I really wish I was going to this game. If you’ll be there, make sure to bring your “yelling voice.”

- R.I.P. Shaky Jake.