Statistical Musings of a Basketball Geek

2011 Trade Deadline

2011-02-25T13:27:00.002-04:00

1. CHI trades James Johnson to TOR for a 2011 1st RD Pick (via MIA, currently #28) - He is extremely active defensively. The problem is that he is just not a good offensive player. I mean, really bad. Perhaps he needs someone to set him up as Derrick Rose was often looking to create looks for himself and his teammates secondarily.

Year	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
2010	80	-20	$2,365,965.39	10.4	-31
2011	72	-28	$2,279,865.62	8.9	-41

Personally, I think it was a good risk to take on Toronto's part. Toronto really needs to cover for Bargnani, Calderon and DeRozan on the defensive end of the floor. Amir Johnson and James Johnson help to mitigate that somewhat but it remains to be seen if Bargnani and DeRozan are even 1st or 2nd options to begin with (they both shoot a ton of jumpers.) It will be interesting to see if J. Johnson can carve out a niche in Toronto as he is above average as a defensive disruptor and not much of a shooter.

However, Johnson is still under the 2400 MP threshold so improvement, despite his age, is still quite likely.

2. MIN trades Kosta Koufus to DEN - It wasn't originally listed as part of the Carmelo Anthony to NYK trade but apparently Koufus was shipped from MIN to DEN. It remains to be seen if Koufus can get some steady burn but there are a few things that are intriguing about him, in my mind, at least.

Age	Year	ORB%	DRB%	BLK%	MP
19	2009	10.6	18.6	4.3	565
20	2010	11.2	19.4	1.9	172
21	2011	13.3	13.3	4.5	336
--	----	11.6	18.7	4.0	1073

When you combine his rebounding, shotblocking and age, he is, at worst, a developmental prospect. There have only been ten players in the modern era who have combined 11.6 ORB%, 18.7 DRB% and 4.0 BLK% over there first 1000 MP (Vlade Divac, Shaquille O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins, Amir Johnson, Paul Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Kosta Koufos, Greg Oden, Anthony Randolph and Serge Ibaka.) It is difficult to claim that this is anything great but it is a nice depth move for DEN and, albeit minor, further puts the Carmelo trade more into DEN's favor, imo.

3. UTA trades Deron Williams to NJN for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, 2011 1st RD pick (currently #6) and 2012 1st RD pick (top-7 protected, via GSW) - Wow, this is potentially a very good move for both teams. UTA got an all-star level PG, a potential all-star level PF-C and two lottery picks. The NJN got a superstar player in his prime and paid for the right to do so.

Player	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
Deron Williams	176	76	$23,292,505.63	22.1	47.3
Devin Harris	134	34	$13,336,690.58	17.9	19.3
Derrick Favors	83	-17	$2,786,022.14	12.8	-14.7

It remains to be seen how this will all work out in the wash but right now I think the deal is probably even with UTA having the chance to move way out ahead if (and that is a big IF) they hit on both of those draft picks and Favors, currently the youngest player in the league, lives up to his draft pedigree.

4. SAC trades Carl Landry to NOH for Marcus Thornton and cash considerations. - OK, before I get into the particulars of this deal, let me just say this stinks. Not, hey, this was a lopsided trade or anything. It smells to high heavens because, with Shinn out in New Orleans, the Hornets are owned by the 29 other teams in the NBA. Which is fine. What isn't fine is that those owners are being forced to compete with themselves. It would be one thing for NOH to be receiving cash considerations to defray operating costs or whatever. It is entirely different when the David Stern express decides to pay out from the league coffers. Rant done.

As far as the players involved, Landry can score a bit above league average but his rebounding has fallen off and he just hasn't been very good since his first two seasons in the league. Thornton is younger and arguably has greater impact, right now.

Player	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
Marcus Thornton	81	-19	$3,228,897.82	14.0	-6.7
Carl Landry	77	-23	$3,425,101.40	15.0	0.0

This trade clearly goes to SAC, imo. That SAC wasn't the one paying is beyond me. I guess the NBA can argue that they were paying part of Thornton's salary for next season but they gave up the better player and the cash. Hard to see how this really benefits NOH.

5. BOS trades Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to OKC for Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, 2012 1st RD pick (via OKC, lesser of LAC's or MIN's 2012 1st RD pick) - I am a bit torn on this. Personally, Kendrick Perkins is my favorite player in the league. That being said, the move does benefit BOS in a couple different ways.

First, BOS gets a likely lottery pick in 2012. That is a pretty good return for a starter-level, defensive big man on an expiring contract that is combined with a salary dump. I just don't know if it is a good enough return for a top-3 post defender.

Secondly, Danny Ainge was able to dump Nate Robinson's salary for 2012 and receive cash. As much as Ainge might want to spin this move as an improvement for 2011, I just don't see it. This was a cost-cutting move, plain and simple. Perhaps Ainge should have addressed the need for a back-up SF to Pierce in the off-season instead of blowing his MLE load on Jermaine O'Neal and his perpetual ouchies.

Player	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
Kendrick Perkins	99	-1	$5,989,051.49	10.2	-32.0
Nate Robinson	74	-26	$2,998,571.90	10.2	-32.0
Jeff Green	79	-21	$3,259,953.47	13.0	-13.3
Nenad Krstic	70	-30	$2,445,899.60	12.6	-16.0

This deal was clearly a slam dunk for Sam Presti, imo. He addressed a glaring need on his roster and was actually able to do so by jettisoning two role players who put up numbers based mostly on minutes and opportunity. The deal could swing back towards BOS's favor if Ainge can acquire real talent with the 2012 1st RD pick and Jeff Green can be re-signed on the cheap. Well, that and Green proves that he is anything more than a rotational level player who isn't a by-product of minutes and opportunity.

6. BOS trades Luke Harangody and Semih Erden to CLE for 2013 2nd RD pick (via MIN) - Two rookies for what will likely amount to a top-40 pick. This move makes sense for BOS but I really don't see how it helps CLE all that much.

Player	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
Semih Erden	70	-30	$1,963,687.46	10.7	-28.7
Luke Harangody	58	-42	$1,262,623.99	8.6	-42.7

I guess CLE thinks there is untapped potential here and both are on non-guaranteed minimum contracts. It really helps BOS in that not only do they convert two late 2nd RD picks into a likely top-10 2nd RD pick but they also clear roster space for the signing of any potential buyouts.

7. BOS trades Marquis Daniels and cash considerations to SAC for 2017 2nd RD pick (top-55 protected) - This move clears the way for more reinforcements via buyouts for BOS. This is the third time now that BOS and SAC have done this type of deal.

No real winner or loser here. Each team met their needs. BOS cleared roster space and cut their cap number whilst SAC made a little bit of profit for taking on the player.

8. CHA trades Gerald Wallace to POR for Joel Pryzbilla, Dante Cunningham, Sean Marks, cash considerations, 2011 1st RD pick (via POR, NOH top-7 protected, currently #21) and 2013 1st RD pick (top-12 protected 2013-2015, unprotected 2016) - Yes, Gerald Wallace is a dynamic defensive player and a heck of a rebounder. Still, giving up two 1st RD picks for a player who is merely starter level seems like a bit of an overpay to me.

Player	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
Gerald Wallace	99	-1	$6,090,189.67	15.1	0.7
Joel Pryzbilla	72	-28	$1,631,881.86	7.1	-52.7
Dante Cunningham	63	-37	$1,834,518.22	9.5	-36.7
Sean Marks	38	-62	$430,577.03	4.9	-67.3

Charlotte wins this trade, imo. I really don't see Wallace changing the dynamics of that team except by taking minutes and opportunity away from more offensively talented teammates. Furthermore, Nicolas Batum is roughly his equal, right now. Never mind the fact that Wallace has only played more than 70 games in a season four times out of his ten years in the NBA.

9. CLE trades Mo Williams and Jamario Moon to LAC for Baron Davis and 2011 1st RD pick (currently #7) - CLE won this trade hands down. Yes, they took on the player with the greater salary but he is also the better player. That they got an unprotected 1st RD pick that is currently mid-lottery is fan-feckin-tastic. Check out the last three seasons combined for both Baron and Mo.

Player	TEN+	Fair$
Baron Davis	137	$12,730,679.66
Mo Williams	116	$6,699,333.19

I really can't see the downside of this trade from CLE's perspective. I guess LAC didn't want Baron dominating the ball but at least he is somewhat active. I have a feeling that LAC is going to regret this deal.

10. HOU trades Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic and 2011 1st RD pick (top-14 protected, currently 15th, if not conveyed, 1st RD pick via ORL, currently 23rd will be conveyed instead) - What the heck? How in the world did HOU manage to swap players of equal impact and still come out with a likely top-25 pick?

Player	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
Aaron Brooks	105	5	$6,039,121.96	11.8	-21.3
Goran Dragic	106	6	$5,785,332.94	11.3	-24.7

Brooks had fallen behind Kyle Lowry on the depth chart (rightfully so) and has struggled with his shot coming off the bench. Dragic has put up similar efficiencies with more defensive impact and could well be a diamond in the rough. Once you factor in the the draft pick, this is a clear win for Houston.

11. HOU trades Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith to MEM for Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and a future 1st RD pick (MEM owes MIN 2011 1st. If that conveys, top-14 protected in 2011, HOU will get MEM 2013 1st, lottery protected-- I think.) - Somehow, someway, Daryl Morey traded an expiring contract and an undrafted rookie free agent for two former 1st RD picks and a future 1st RD pick.

I think this trade works out for both teams, actually. MEM wants to make a playoff push and Battier's defense, three point shooting and veteran leadership will go a long way towards that. They also were able to shed salary.

From HOU's perspective, they were able to acquire big man and wing depth while also getting something for expiring contracts. They also opened up playing time for Chase Budinger. It will be interesting to see if Carroll and Thabeet to can live up to the pre-draft expectations.

Carmelo Anthony Traded to Knicks in Nine Player Deal

2011-02-23T00:30:00.000-04:00

The Denver Nuggets have traded Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks in a nine player deal. It finally puts to bed the entire "Where will Carmelo get traded?" talk.

First off, Carmelo is a gifted scorer. Umm, that is it. He doesn't impact games in other ways, really. Now, pair him with another defensive sieve, Amar'e Stoudemire, and you are just asking for trouble, imo.

Lets see exactly what the Knicks gave up. Felton is playing at an all-star level this year. He is outperforming his contract and is young enough that you can continue with him as part of your core. Chandler's positional-versatility and ability to shoot the three can really help a team. At this point, Gallinari is essentially a poor man's Carmelo. No, he doesn't use the same amount of possessions but he is very similar assuming he gets more touches. I wouldn't have traded Gallinari straight-up for Carmelo once you take contract into account and I am scratching my head wondering why exactly this deal was made other than to bring the hometown guy home.

Additionally, New York gave up Anthony Randolph and Eddie Curry in another move with Minnesota. They should have paired those two with Gallinari and Mozgov in a separate move to round out their team, imo. It looks to me like the Knicks were simply reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titantic.

Player	TEN+	Fair$
Wilson Chandler	101	$7,113,160.08
Raymond Felton	138	$14,184,281.26
Danilo Gallinari	93	$6,197,991.60
Timofey Mozgov	64	$1,595,634.23

Carmelo lacks impact in correlation to the amount of possessions he uses. Yes, he is a gifted scorer and is able to absorb a massive amount of possessions. He just doesn't provide much outside of that. Chauncey is playing at an all-star level but so was Felton. I like Chauncey and think he will be good for New York but this is an overpay on New York's part. I do think that Balkman, if used correctly, could be a positive in this deal, though.

Player	TEN+	Fair$
Carmelo Anthony	114	$10,016,890.83
Chauncey Billups	132	$12,278,503.01
Shelden Williams	69	$2,045,827.95
Anthony Carter	74	$2,491,694.63
Renaldo Balkman	76	$2,445,679.97

Well, if I am Denver, I am pretty happy with this deal. I come out of it with a $17.1M trade exemption. If I was them, I would flip Gallinari to another team before the trade deadline but only if I could shed the rest of Kenyon Martin's deal and acquire a rebounder/shot-blocker to put next to Nene. I would re-sign Nene and JR Smith in the off-season.

2011 Team Capsule: Cleveland Cavaliers (All Star Break)

2011-02-22T03:14:00.000-04:00

The 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers have been atrocious so far this season and their level of futility is noticed among American sports. Perhaps it is because their main possession eaters are just not that good. Perhaps it is because the role players are just not that good. Perhaps it is because it is a collection of individuals in a team sport.

The problem with many of the role player-level ratings being put up by many of the Cavs players is that they are being done on starter-level usage rates. It is one thing to have an all-around player eating possessions. It is an entirely different matter when one dimensional, lower efficient players are the ones using up the possessions.

The Cavs have become a running joke amongst sports forums and sports blogs. Any player with greater perceived value than his actual worth going forward should be moved before the deadline. Try to acquire trade chits and developing a solid core.

Easier said than done. Take a look below at how the team shakes out so far here coming off the All-Star break.

Player	TEN+	TEN%	PER	PER%	Fair$
eyenga,christian	71	-29	10.1	-33	$2,762,910.25
gee,alonzo	68	-32	8.9	-41	$1,861,405.35
gibson,daniel	86	-14	13.4	-11	$5,079,723.68
graham,joey	45	-55	8.4	-44	$1,079,631.59
harris,manny	77	-23	10.8	-28	$2,960,536.02
hickson,j.j.	70	-30	13.6	-9	$2,904,334.81
hollins,ryan	57	-43	10.6	-29	$1,304,923.51
jamison,antawn	87	-13	16.4	9	$5,585,708.46
moon,jamario	83	-17	10.2	-32	$3,097,693.16
parker,anthony	85	-15	11.0	-27	$3,662,354.48
powe,leon	77	-23	12.8	-15	$2,124,930.67
samuels,samardo	48	-52	10.0	-33	$912,740.89
sessions,ramon	128	28	19.0	27	$10,463,911.07
varejao,anderson	110	10	15.1	1	$7,355,180.57
williams,jawad	47	-53	4.7	-69	$876,374.81
williams,mo	113	13	13.7	-9	$9,172,114.61

Three starter level players and a handful of role players. Some could be solid rotation level players, sure, but there is not much defense being played in the Gold and Wine this season. Not much offense, either. The Cavs rank 30th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the league.

The lone bright spot appears to be Ramon Sessions. If I was the GM in Cleveland, I would be selling high with him and attempt to use him to jettison some overpriced veteran. I am not sure exactly what I would do. Maybe that is the topic for another post, though.

2011 All-Star Team Selections

2011-02-20T20:43:00.000-04:00

PLAYER (TEAM)	POS.	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
* LeBron James (Miami)	F	193	93.0	$29,335,929.94	26.5	76.7
* Amar'e Stoudemire (New York)	F	132	32.0	$13,423,062.94	23.9	59.3
* Dwyane Wade (Miami)	G	161	61.0	$19,678,609.33	25.0	66.7
* Derrick Rose (Chicago)	G	141	41.0	$14,048,483.11	23.3	55.3
* Dwight Howard (Orlando)	C	137	37.0	$13,802,347.09	25.9	72.7
Ray Allen (Boston)	G	95	-5.0	$7,725,283.11	17.3	15.3
Chris Bosh (Miami)	F	99	-1.0	$7,659,845.94	19.4	29.3
Kevin Garnett (Boston)	F	151	51.0	$15,154,639.92	20.8	38.7
Al Horford (Atlanta)	C-F	130	30.0	$13,004,821.76	22.2	48.0
Joe Johnson (Atlanta)	G	125	25.0	$12,363,200.04	18.3	22.0
Paul Pierce (Boston)	F	140	40.0	$13,725,587.29	19.4	29.3
Rajon Rondo (Boston)	G	181	81.0	$22,789,682.34	18.3	22.0

PLAYER (TEAM)	POS.	TEN+	TEN%	Fair$	PER	PER%
* Tim Duncan (San Antonio)	F	144	44.0	$14,337,641.63	21.6	44.0
* Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)	F	163	63.0	$20,637,639.10	24.1	60.7
* Carmelo Anthony (Denver)	F	114	14.0	$10,016,890.83	21.4	42.7
* Kobe Bryant (L.A. Lakers)	G	157	57.0	$16,551,174.40	24.0	60.0
* Chris Paul (New Orleans)	G	203	103.0	$31,416,243.87	24.6	64.0
Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)	G	164	64.0	$18,414,782.89	21.7	44.7
Pau Gasol (L.A. Lakers)	C	135	35.0	$13,711,425.50	23.7	58.0
# Blake Griffin (L.A. Clippers)	F	132	32.0	$13,536,469.60	22.3	48.7
# Kevin Love (Minnesota)	F-C	142	42.0	$14,167,320.39	24.3	62.0
Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)	F	137	37.0	$13,684,732.39	23.6	57.3
# Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)	G	155	55.0	$19,798,903.93	23.9	59.3
Deron Williams (Utah)	G	176	76.0	$23,292,505.63	22.1	47.3

* Starters
# First time All-Star

All-Star Break: Top-10 PER (with TEN+ Comparison)

2011-02-19T23:40:00.000-04:00

The All-Star festivities are upon us tonight. I am watching the dunk contest but thought I would submit a quick comparison of Hollinger's top-10 PER with a side-by-side with TEN+.

Player	Age	Team	PER	PER%	TEN+	TEN%
LeBron James	26	MIA	26.5	76.7	193	93.0
Dwight Howard	25	ORL	25.9	72.7	137	37.0
Dwyane Wade	29	MIA	25.0	66.7	161	61.0
Chris Paul	25	NOH	24.6	64.0	203	103.0
Kevin Love	22	MIN	24.3	62.0	142	42.0
Kevin Durant	22	OKC	24.1	60.7	163	63.0
Kobe Bryant	32	LAL	24.0	60.0	157	57.0
Amare Stoudemire	28	NYK	23.9	59.3	132	32.0
Russell Westbrook	22	OKC	23.9	59.3	155	55.0
Pau Gasol	30	LAL	23.7	58.0	135	35.0

Just a quick look but it appears Chris Paul is the strongest MVP candidate. Amare Stoudemire is still a defensive dog. Kevin Love has made huge jumps but defensively he needs a game-changer next to him.

The Dominance of Bill Russell

2011-02-18T14:00:00.000-04:00

Bill Russell was recently awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. After hearing the news, I set out to dig through some old studies I had done. I finally found what I was looking for on an auxiliary HDD.

I think that Russell is the second best player of all time-- never mind center. (No, Michael Jordan was the best individual scorer but not the best player ever. That honor rests with Oscar Robertson.)

The league was pretty rough and tumble back in those days and a lot of stuff wasn't called. About five years or so ago I came up with a rough guesstimate that Russell averaged close to 650 blocks per season in his prime. Wilt Chamberlain probably averaged close to 500 per season in his prime.

That may seem astronomical but you have to remember that teams played at a very fast pace in those days. Bill averaged ~42 MPG for his career and rarely missed games. Fouls were called less frequently. Russell was likely one of the top all-around athletes, with size, of his time. There was no three point line so players generally took shots closer to the basket in those days and offensive players likely had less of an idea how to counteract shotblockers. Though he could score, Russell put most of his energy into defense and rebounding. All these factors contributed to his and his team's dominance.

Assuming that my estimation is true, provided we also account for his aging and drop-off in performance, Russell was probably somewhere around a 7.25-7.45 BLK% player. For a bit of perspective, that would put him 3rd or 4th all-time. Could he have blocked more? Maybe but I feel pretty confident that if he did, it wasn't too many more.

Rebounding-wise, it is just so hard to tell because of the lack of pertinent data. That being said, I did estimate that Russell was likely a 21.0-21.5 career REB% guy. Again, for perspective, that would have likely put him 3rd all-time after Dennis Rodman and Wilt. His prime years were probably similar to Rodman's last two years in Chicago (except not as dominant ORB%) and you were probably looking at Russ putting up 24.0-25.0 REB% during that time.

All that being said, we do know, from the historical data we do have, that the max out point for defensive rebound percentage in the modern age is about 35%. Only one player has ever had a season when he exceeded that cut-off (92-93 Rodman) but Ben Wallace came pretty close in the 02-03 season when he recorded a 34.95 DRB%. I have a hard time believing that Russell was not in the 31.0-32.0 DRB% for his career and probably inched up towards the 35% mark during his prime.

The better shotblockers change two shots for every one they block. Be it from directly challenging the shot to the last burger causing Antoine Walker-itis and the player throwing it up before another block can happen. The elite shotblockers are truly game-changers in regards to protecting the tin.

My opinion, from what little classic games I have seen of Russell, is that Russ totally altered the game at the defensive end of the floor. He was quick enough to jump passing lanes and he had the agility and coordination to cause a ton of deflections. He was most certainly a defensive game-changer with his shotblocking alone and he was likely an all-time great rebounder and help defender.

Kevin Garnett: The News of His Demise is Greatly Exaggerated

2011-02-17T13:57:00.000-04:00

There has been some chatter around the Internet of late that Kevin Garnett was largely responsible for the Celtics pre-All Star break slide. After incidents against Phoenix and Dallas, combined with losing five out of ten games, the sharks worked themselves into a mini-frenzy by recently stating that Garnett was coming up empty in the fourth quarter of games. The period of games mentioned was from the 17th January Orlando game through the 10 February Laker game.

Here is what he did in the 4th QTRs of those games mentioned.*

*Note Garnett did not play in the 4th QTRs of the games against Utah or against Cleveland due the Celtics being so far ahead.

P/36	R/36	A/36	B/36	S/36
16.93	13.27	2.75	0.46	2.29

Or maybe you need to see what he did in his total minutes during that span:

P/36	R/36	A/36	B/36	S/36
16.90	9.46	3.67	0.92	1.56

Or his per36 numbers on the season up until that point:

P/36	R/36	A/36	B/36	S/36
17.12	10.33	2.72	0.86	1.80

Perhaps I am mistaken but I am just not seeing a drastic fall-off in performance over these games. Furthermore, while Garnett isn't "closing" games offensively (it has never been his game, really), his all-around game is and has been very good. He continues to be perhaps the best pick defender at his position in the league. He has been rock solid in his rotations, blitzes and is rebounding consistently.

Kevin Garnett is still performing at a high-All Star/borderline Superstar level for the Celtics. Any attempts to state otherwise is clearly from those with an agenda, imo.

Nene Hilario

2011-02-16T22:25:00.000-04:00

Nene is one of my favorite players in the NBA. He plays on a fast-paced team, avoids turnovers, converts at a high rate around the basket and is easily top-5 in the NBA as a post defender. His help defense is solid.

Year	TEN+	Fair$
2009	123	$9.637
2010	132	$11.479
2011	139	$11.824

Since returning from injury that wasted his 2008 season, Nene has steadily improved. His defense has remained rock solid.

By PER, Nene was 25.3, 26.0 and 42.6% above average in each of the last three years. Over the same period, by TEN+, Nene has been 23.0, 32.0 and 39.0% above average.

Opposition Starters

2011-02-15T14:40:00.000-04:00

I did a study a while back where I attempted to tackle the problem of bench vs starters. Without getting too in-depth, the average player will see the following increases against Joe Dink, average bench player:

11.4% more Free Throw Attempts
2.7% more Rebounds
3.3% more Steals
12.9% more Blocks
16.0% more Personal Fouls
0.7% more Points Scored
0.6% increase to True Shooting Percentage

Now, with that being said, players also lose against bench players, as well. On average, it reflects like this:

-1.1% less Field Goal Attempts
-9.4% less Assists
-0.4% less Turnovers

I made a quick and dirty, back of the envelope equation to figure approximate strength of opposition. I call it "Opp Starters" and it closely mirrors the results from actual play-by-play data (not perfect but pretty close.)

Essentially, if you take a hypothetical 25 MPG player, this is how his units opposing line-ups will shake out:

Games | Starts | MPG | Avg Starters Faced
82 | 82 | 25 | 4.03
82 | 41 | 25 | 3.35
82 | 00 | 25 | 2.67

It can really help to put a player's performance into context. I use it as an adjustment in my TEN+ rating, as well.

Advanced Statistical Scouting

2011-02-14T14:26:00.000-04:00

Advanced Statistical Scouting (A.S.S.) is used as a quick and dirty way for me to check out a group of players who may be performing at a higher/lower level than what their statistics may not, at first glance, indicate. I would then proceed to investigate further. Besides, it is fun to say that I like to pull numbers out of my ass.

Scoring

Scr: (Lg. Avg. = 15) - Gives neutral weight to the ability to score (ie. balances out volume shooters vs low-usage efficiency.)

Rebounding

Reb: (Lg. Avg. = 9) - Additional weight is given to those who procure the offensive variety.

Ballhandling

Bhd: (Lg. Avg. = 0) - A negative rating isn't a death sentence but it is a sign that someone else on the team needs to be handling the ball and playmaking.

Disruptive Defense

Dsrp: (Lg. Avg. = 4) - Players with a rating </= 4 aren't necessarily bad defenders, they just need to compensate for their inability to make consistent defensive plays with very good team defense.

Fair$, what is it?

2011-02-14T00:58:00.000-04:00

The Fair Salary (Fair$) component of the TEN+ statistic allows for a quick glance of what a player would likely command on the open market. There are a lot of factors that could affect the salary of a player such as role, injury history, age, lack of free agent options, etc.

Generally speaking, offense commands higher salary. As such, the Fair$ component (and TEN+, itself) are roughly two parts offense to one part intangibles/defense. Two players could have equal TEN+ ratings but, depending how they got there, they could have wildly divergent Fair$.

At the team level, the more successful teams will likely have combined Fair$ numbers that add up to the $85-100M+ range. That may seem counter-intuitive to some but it makes perfect sense. Contending teams are able to maintain payroll and roster flexibility by having rookie contracts, veteran minimums and just undervalued players, in general. Teams that try to keep everybody, even the better contributors, end up like the Mavericks of a few years ago.

The mid-2000's Detroit teams were able lock up their best players at below market levels for a good bit of time. Recognizing that, it is not very surprising with the run and success they had. Sure, avoiding major injuries played into that, too, but I would point first and foremost to the salary structure.

TEN+, A Closer Look

2011-02-12T15:27:00.000-04:00

TEN+ is a professional basketball rating system that is similar in concept to OPS+
or ERA+ in baseball. Therefore, a "100" rating is the baseline for a starter-level
player. I have attempted to incorporate defense by using regression analysis of
on-court and off-court data. It is a pace-adjusted, per-minute evaluation tool.
TEN+, at the team level, has consistently outperformed pyth^14 and pyth^16 in
determining expected winning percentage.

190+ MVP Candidate

150+ Superstar

130+ All-Star

100+ Starter

75+ Rotation

60+ Deep Bench

59- Spot minutes/Freely Available Talent

In action, TEN+ would be used much the same way that PER is cited when discussing
a player's performance value. As an example, in the 2010 season, Golden State's
Anthony Morrow put up a TEN+ of 86.

What does that mean?

To begin with, it means that he is a rotation level player who, when needed, could
spot-start. In fact, with some adjustments, it appears that he might be able to
fill a larger role. Of course, as with all counting stats, minutes, teammates,
opportunity and style of play have a big influence on a player's performance. Even
if his role is to come off the bench, he would likely be well-suited to it and shine
doing it.

Secondly, what did PER think of his performance? A 15.0 in PER is considered an
average player. Morrow's 14.0 PER in 2010 rates his performance at approximately
6.7% below average. TEN+ really dislikes his defense/intangibles and rates him at
14% below average.

As with any type of system that attempts to quantify performance into a single
number, there are going to be issues of quantity vs quality. Is it more valuable
to absorb possessions, and thereby avoid turnovers over a large amount of scoring
opportunities, at lower efficiency than it is to be highly-efficient over a smaller
amount of touches?

I come from the school of thought that a player who can create shots, both by the
dribble drive and via the assist, and avoid turnovers in the process is the most
valuable offensively. So, some people might think that those players are over-
valued by TEN+.

Others may deem that players who continue possessions via the offensive rebound are
overvalued. Or players who accumulate blocks and steals without fouling. Or who
positively impact both the offensive and defensive efficiencies of his teammates
while he is on the floor.

One thing I was sure I wanted to include in TEN+ was a defensive adjustment. Sure,
being offensively talented will get you paid but defense wins games and rebounding
wins championships. Defensive dogs should be given the same treatment that offensive
stiffs get, imo.

I believe that if you are going to attempt to rate performance, everyone needs to
be measured with the same stick. It may be difficult to measure defense but I
think we should at least make the attempt. When you are watching a game and see Al
Jefferson providing perimeter-to-tin, uninterrupted service (with a complimentary
lay-up line for teams that call now!), just remember that the more minutes he plays,
the more difficult it is to cover-up for his defense. It is the same reason it is
difficult to play Amir Johnson for long periods of time if not paired with offensively
talented teammates.

Introduction

2011-02-11T17:03:00.000-04:00

Hello visitors.

I am Hoop Geek. I have created a basketball rating system that I call TEN+. TEN+ is a hat-tip to the pioneers of advanced basketball statistical analysis such as Martin Manley (Tendex.) The "+" signifies that is based on a 100 system similar to ERA+ or OPS+ in baseball sabermetrics.

Additionally, I have developed a few other tools that I use to delve deeper into the numbers. A couple of those are Advanced Statistical Scouting (A.S.S.) and Fair Salary (Fair$.)

In later posts, I will give an overview of each component. I will attempt to provide John Hollinger's PER for comparison's sake, too, when using TEN+ to describe a player's performance.

Thank you for visiting and allowing me to share my views.