Statnut's Baseball Analysis

And now...the AL Statnutties

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:03:00 +0000

Rookie of the Year: A few good candidates here: Joba Chamberlina of the Yankees, Chris Carter of the Rangers, Armando Gallaraga of the Tigers and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox. But one stands out above the rest, Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays. He led all rookies in homers despite playing only 122 games. His defense was generally solid, and he had a solid .343 OBP. He looks like a superstar in the making.

Player of the Year: An interesting category. My first instict was to go with Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, but after reviewing the data, I've chosen Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees instead. Rodriguez was third in the AL in homers with 35, finished second in OPS to Hamilton's teammate Milton Bradley, hit .302, stole 18 bases and was 8th in RBI's despite missing 24 games. You cant blame him for the Yankees disappointing finish, despite what "clutch" stats show. He hit 11 of his homers in the 7th inning or later.

Cy Young: Ordinarily, Roy Halladay would be a lock for this one, but you can't ignore Cliff Lee's year. All but left for dead after an awful 2007(5-8, 6.29) he rebounded to finish 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA. His four complete games were second to Halladay, as he became the first Indian since Bob Lemon in 1954 to lead the majors in wins(ironically, both tied the NL leader).

MVP: Once again, I'll be using my formula for this one. If you are unfamiliar with it, refer to the NL Statnutties(http://nutsaboutbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/10/first-annual-statnutties.html).

Your top 5 finishers:

3rd)-M. Cabrera, DET
M. Bradley, TEX
J. Hamilton, TEX
C. Quentin, CHI
K. Youklis, BOS
2nd)J. Mauer, MIN
1st) D. Pedroia, BOS

According to the formula, Pedroia is the Statnuttie AL MVP. I can honestly find little fault with this selection. Quentin and Mauer are deserving candidates, and I think had Quentin not missed most of September, he would have had a very strong case, as he would have likely led the AL in homers(he finished second despite not playing a game after September 1st), and would have been a top 5 finisher in RBI's and runs. Still, Pedroia led the AL in runs, and was 2nd in batting average, while playing terrific defense at 2B. He even managed to double last years home run total with 17 this year, and stole 20 bases.

So there you have it. Agree? Disagree? Leave it in the comments, I'd love to hear about it.

The first annual National League Statnutties

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:20:00 +0000

Now that the post-season is over, its time for the 1st annual Statnutties! The Statnutties consist of 4 awards: MVP, Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Pitcher of the Year.

First up, Rookie of the Year. There are several contenders: Reds first baseman Joey Votto, Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens, Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda, and Cubs catcher Geovany Soto. Despite Votto’s late season surge that gave him more homers and a higher OPS than Soto, I have to give the Statnuttie Rookie of the Year to Geovany Soto. As a starting catcher on a division winning team, his 23 homers were the most for a rookie catcher since Mike Piazza(1993). Runner up: Votto

Next up, Player of the Year. Player of the Year is different from MVP, in that POY is more about who had the best year, regardless of value to team and team’s finish. There are some good candidates for this one, but none better than St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols. Pujols was 2nd in the NL in batting average, 4th in RBI’s and 4th in home runs. In fact, he was the only player in the NL to finish top 5 in those three categories. For good measure, he was 4th in doubles and 2nd in walks. A truly amazing player, it seems like he puts up the same numbers every year. Amazingly, he’s never had a year where he batted below .314, or hit fewer than 32 homers. He’s probably the best Cardinal position player since Stan Musial. Runner up: Chipper Jones, Atlanta. Jones led the National League in batting, but his missed time probably cost him, as he finished with only 22 homers and 75 RBI’s.

Next to last we have Pitcher of the Year. The four big contenders are Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, and Brandon Webb. Santana led the NL in ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts, and 7th in wins. He also led the National League in quality starts with 28. Dempster went from bullpen mediocrity in 2007 to top of the line starter in 2008. He was 4th in ERA, 3rd in wins, and 8th in quality starts. An impressive year from someone that was only being counted on to be a #5 starter. Webb, the 2006 NL Cy Young award winner, won 20 games for the first time in his career, finishing with 22 as the only NL pitcher to win 20. He was in the top 10 in ERA, complete games, and quality starts. But no ones season was not as impressive as Lincecum, the Statnuttie pitcher of the year. Lincecum went 18-5, posting a winning percentage that was .339 better than his teams. He led the National in strikeouts, and was second to Santana in ERA and quality starts. Runner up: Santana

And last but not least we come to MVP. For the MVP, I have devised a little formula. I have not tried it out yet, so this will be an almost live experiment. The formula is thus:
-1 point for playing on a winning team
-2 points for playing on a playoff team
-1 point for being a catcher, shortstop, second baseman or centerfielder
-1 point for a top 5 finish in homers, RBI’s, runs, batting average or OPS
-3 points for leading the league in one of those categories.

So lets see who the top 5 are:
5)R. Braun/G. Soto/L.Berkman: 4
4)C. Utley: 5
3)H. Ramirez: 6
2)A. Pujols: 8
1)R. Howard:11

Interesting. My formula picked someone I wouldn’t pick myself. In Howards favor are: led the league in homers and RBI’s, and played on a playoff team. Why I wouldn’t pick Howard personally, is how awful he played most of the year. Also, no National League MVP has ever had a batting average lower than .267, and that was during World War II(and Stan Musial should have won that award anyway).
But there you have it. I’ll stand by the formula. Ryan Howard is the 2008 Statnuttie MVP Award. I’ll be curious to see what others think. As for the MVP Formula, I'll continue to tweak it.

MLB's World Series embarrasment

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 17:04:00 +0000

Bud Selig suspending yesterday's Game 5 was a huge deal. Never in history has a World Series game been suspended, nor has one been called on account of rain. Had the Rays not scored in the top of the 6th, shortly before the game was suspended, under MLB rules the Phillies would have technically had a case for them to be declared World Series winners. Bud Selig claims he would not have allowed that. But either way, it would have been a disaster, and left a bad taste in fans mouths.

This is on top of the, at best, shoddy umpiring we've seen thus far. There have been 3 blown calls(Baldelli's walk in Game 2, Moyer's tag in Game 3, and Rollins being taged out at 3rd in Game 4). All of them were big calls, and all were blown badly. This is on top of the awful strike zones being used. Last night, Scott Kazmir threw two perfect strike threes in the 5th to Pat Burrell. Too bad home play umpire Jeff Kellog called them balls 3 and 4. In the top of the 6th, the same pitch was ruled a strike for Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels.

MLB has a problem on their hands. Game 3 was a terrific game, with an exciting finish. Too bad that many East Coasters were probably in bed by the time it end, seeing as it started almost 2 hours late.

There's no excuse for these types of things. World Series games should not be starting at 8:30 on a Saturday night. Nor on a weeknight. My solutions:

1)Weekend World Series games start at 5:30 PM EST. This would allow kids to actually stay up and watch a game from start to finish. I guarantee that fans will tune in even if the game isnt in prime time.

2)Weekday World Series games start at 7 PM EST. This will put the games into prime-time, but still have them start early enough that games wont end around midnight on the east.

3)With all of the technology around for weather forecasting, why didnt it occur to anyone to move up Game 3 and Game 5's start time, to avoid the problems that occurred. You can't tell me that on Saturday morning, MLB didnt know that rain would be a problem around game time. Had they been flexible and moved the game up 2-3 hours, there wouldnt have been a problem.

4)Change the archaic rain rules. If a game has any kind of implications(playoff game, regular season game that could clinch a playoff spot), allow for it to be made up later. Don't declare a winner based on 4 and a half innings of play. That would be like the NFL determining a game at the half.

5)Make sure a)the very best umpires are calling a WS game year in and year out, and b)blown playoff calls weigh heavily against an umpire when it is time to hand out World Series assignments.

I'm sure MLB will take none of these suggestions under consideration, because for the first 3, FOX rules those decisions. But maybe with the upcoming MLB Network, baseball will be able to regain some measure of control over these things.

Game 5 Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 21:30:00 +0000

Joe Maddon's lineup shakeup is interesting, but leading off with Iwamura, who hasnt had a hit since game 1 may be a critical mistake. Inserting Baldelli is interesting, and makes sense with the lefty Hamels on the mound. I like the 2-3-4-5 of Crawford/Upton/Pena/Longoria, but will it be too little, too late?

I'm gonna say Rays have one more win in them, and scratch together just enough offense to force a game 6.

Stick a fork in the Rays

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 03:18:00 +0000

they're done for in Game 4. They can only hope they have enough fight in them to get it back to Tampa. One game at a time.

Ryan Madson

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 03:07:00 +0000

sure has come a long way from failed starter.

This heart of the order

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:57:00 +0000

has no pulse. You cant win if your big hitters arent hitting.

Phillies pen

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:48:00 +0000

Is lights out. Maybe all of them can be the WS MVP?

If the Rays lose Game 4

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:44:00 +0000

Maddon should consider dropping Iwamura to the 8th spot against the lefty Hamels, and playing Fernando Perez in right field, batting leadoff. They are struggling offensively, so perhaps the new, speedy blood at the top of the lineup could invigorate them.

I give

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:41:00 +0000

Iwamura a 30% chance of reaching base here.

Wonder if going to Kazmir in game 4

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:36:00 +0000

Would have made a difference. Last time a Game 1 starter started Game 4 was in 2001, Curt Schilling against the Yankees.

good at-bat

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:25:00 +0000

Even though Utley struck out, he really made Jackson work for it.

Phillies Pitchers

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:11:00 +0000

are getting the calls the last two nights. I wonder if they're getting the benefit of a wider strike zone because they're "veterans", while the Rays pitchers are unproven "kids". Wouldn't surprise me at all, not that anyone would admit it.

Dang

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:06:00 +0000

You dont expect to see that in the WS. Jackson did give up 23 homers this year, but to a pitcher, thats inexcusable. Last pitcher to hit a homer in the WS, as noted in the telecast, was Ken Holtzman, also in game 4, and for Oakland, Blanton's old team.

Rays have a gripe

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:03:00 +0000

They've really been victimized by poor calls and inconsistent strike zone. That same pitch was a strike for Blanton last inning. Last night, Moyer received a number of calls that were boderline at best(including one that I swear was on the chalk of the batter box. On the opposite side of the hitter).

New poll

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:03:00 +0000

It's early, but tell me who you think the WS MVP thus far is? If other, leave it in the comments.

The Rays

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:57:00 +0000

cant catch a break. Looks like I was half right, Sonnanstine gone after 4 innings. Good call though hitting Hinske. Now if the Rays could just get some runners on...

This is why

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:48:00 +0000

the talk of not throwing Howard a fastball is silly. Feed him a steady diet of breaking balls, and he'll eventually time it and do that.

Conversely

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:46:00 +0000

the Rays were 13-24 when trailing after the first.

When ahead

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:40:00 +0000

the Phillies were 36-10 when leading after the 1st inning this year.

Crawford

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:37:00 +0000

Nice shot. Hopefully it will wake them up, cause they have looked dead to this point. Who would have guessed Crawford would lead the team in homers during the WS?

How much longer

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:30:00 +0000

Can Sonnanstine survive? How much longer will the Phillies leave runners on base? Tampa is lucky to be in this game, they have to take advantage of that soon.

Finally.

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:19:00 +0000

Man, it was like watching a slow death. Can Ruiz continue his hot hitting?

Floodgates

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:16:00 +0000

I have a feeling that error is going to open the gates for the Phils.

Blanton

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 01:09:00 +0000

is cruising. No one is making him work. 42 pitches through 3 innings. With 4 strikeouts. By the way, Blanton's career high is 10 whiffs in a game. WS record is Bob Gibson with 17. I think that's pretty safe.