Stats Chat

NFL Predictions for Week 3

David Scott — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 09:33:01 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Seahawks	12.80	12.03	0.80
Patriots	9.53	8.11	1.40
Bills	6.80	4.81	2.00
Rams	5.49	6.16	-0.70
Vikings	4.88	2.79	2.10
Jaguars	4.22	4.17	0.10
49ers	4.13	0.63	3.50
Broncos	3.34	4.07	-0.70
Texans	3.07	5.51	-2.40
Lions	2.94	5.20	-2.30
Ravens	2.65	2.53	0.10
Bengals	2.26	0.39	1.90
Bears	2.05	1.18	0.90
Chiefs	0.91	-1.34	2.30
Packers	-0.56	1.72	-2.30
Eagles	-0.64	0.73	-1.40
Steelers	-0.87	-0.43	-0.40
Saints	-1.06	-3.38	2.30
Colts	-2.11	-0.74	-1.40
Chargers	-2.12	1.16	-3.30
Cowboys	-2.82	-3.42	0.60
Raiders	-2.82	-5.72	2.90
Giants	-2.94	-2.38	-0.60
Panthers	-3.28	-4.66	1.40
Browns	-3.54	-2.50	-1.00
Buccaneers	-4.73	-3.95	-0.80
Falcons	-5.10	-1.39	-3.70
Commanders	-5.75	-4.65	-1.10
Cardinals	-6.56	-7.49	0.90
Dolphins	-6.74	-3.99	-2.80
Jets	-7.71	-9.84	2.10
Titans	-9.24	-8.81	-0.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bills vs. Lions	Sept 18	41 – 31	1.50	TRUE
2	Falcons vs. Panthers	Sept 21	3 – 34	3.90	FALSE
3	Ravens vs. Saints	Sept 21	17 – 24	6.20	FALSE
4	Bears vs. Vikings	Sept 21	3 – 9	-1.60	TRUE
5	Texans vs. Bengals	Sept 21	6 – 20	4.10	FALSE
6	Patriots vs. Steelers	Sept 21	20 – 3	7.80	TRUE
7	Jets vs. Packers	Sept 21	17 – 20	-8.80	TRUE
8	Buccaneers vs. Browns	Sept 21	19 – 23	-0.10	TRUE
9	Titans vs. Eagles	Sept 21	20 – 24	-10.40	TRUE
10	Broncos vs. Jaguars	Sept 21	20 – 13	-3.90	FALSE
11	Chargers vs. Raiders	Sept 21	14 – 26	3.60	FALSE
12	Cardinals vs. Seahawks	Sept 21	7 – 31	-17.60	TRUE
13	Cowboys vs. Commanders	Sept 21	37 – 20	-0.20	FALSE
14	49ers vs. Dolphins	Sept 21	35 – 13	8.30	TRUE
15	Chiefs vs. Colts	Sept 21	33 – 30	3.00	TRUE
16	Rams vs. Giants	Sept 22	28 – 6	5.40	TRUE

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Packers vs. Falcons	Sept 25	Packers	4.50
2	Bills vs. Chargers	Sept 28	Bills	8.90
3	Browns vs. Panthers	Sept 28	Panthers	-0.30
4	Lions vs. Jets	Sept 28	Lions	10.70
5	Colts vs. Texans	Sept 28	Texans	-5.20
6	Jaguars vs. Patriots	Sept 28	Patriots	-5.30
7	Dolphins vs. Chiefs	Sept 28	Chiefs	-7.70
8	Giants vs. Titans	Sept 28	Giants	6.30
9	Steelers vs. Bengals	Sept 28	Bengals	-3.10
10	Commanders vs. Seahawks	Sept 28	Seahawks	-18.60
11	49ers vs. Cardinals	Sept 28	49ers	10.70
12	Buccaneers vs. Vikings	Sept 28	Vikings	-9.60
13	Cowboys vs. Ravens	Sept 28	Ravens	-5.50
14	Saints vs. Raiders	Sept 28	Saints	1.80
15	Broncos vs. Rams	Sept 28	Rams	-2.10
16	Bears vs. Eagles	Sept 29	Bears	2.70

The post NFL Predictions for Week 3 first appeared on Stats Chat.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

David Scott — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:32:42 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	12.13	12.13	0.00
Bulls	10.00	10.00	-0.00
Stormers	6.49	6.49	0.00
Glasgow	6.47	6.47	-0.00
Connacht	2.62	2.62	0.00
Sharks	2.16	2.16	0.00
Lions	1.48	1.48	0.00
Munster	1.25	1.25	0.00
Ulster	-0.32	-0.32	0.00
Cardiff Rugby	-1.63	-1.63	-0.00
Edinburgh	-2.55	-2.55	0.00
Ospreys	-3.35	-3.35	0.00
Scarlets	-3.47	-3.47	0.00
Benetton	-6.67	-6.67	0.00
Dragons	-10.04	-10.04	-0.00
Zebre	-14.56	-14.56	-0.00

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Benetton vs. Dragons	Sept 26	Benetton	8.90
2	Connacht vs. Stormers	Sept 26	Connacht	1.60
3	Ulster vs. Edinburgh	Sept 26	Ulster	7.70
4	Lions vs. Leinster	Sept 26	Leinster	-5.10
5	Sharks vs. Ospreys	Sept 27	Sharks	11.00
6	Munster vs. Glasgow	Sept 27	Munster	0.30
7	Zebre vs. Bulls	Sept 27	Bulls	-19.10
8	Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby	Sept 27	Scarlets	0.70

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

David Scott — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:31:49 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.47	12.37	0.10
Montpellier	6.76	6.36	0.40
Bordeaux Begles	5.17	3.70	1.50
Section Paloise	4.84	4.18	0.70
Stade Rochelais	4.64	4.97	-0.30
Stade Francais	4.16	5.68	-1.50
Clermont	3.53	4.21	-0.70
Racing 92	2.01	3.59	-1.60
Lyon	0.83	-0.94	1.80
Toulon	-0.42	-0.81	0.40
Castres Olympique	-1.39	-0.29	-1.10
Bayonne	-2.42	-2.02	-0.40
USA Perpignan	-5.08	-5.39	0.30
Vannes	-9.49	-10.00	0.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Castres Olympique vs. Toulon	Sept 20	29 – 27	6.00	TRUE
2	Bayonne vs. Clermont	Sept 20	46 – 24	-0.90	FALSE
3	Lyon vs. Section Paloise	Sept 20	51 – 25	0.90	TRUE
4	Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan	Sept 20	50 – 13	17.00	TRUE
5	Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92	Sept 20	10 – 20	10.50	FALSE
6	Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain	Sept 20	23 – 29	-16.20	TRUE
7	Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais	Sept 21	40 – 10	6.00	TRUE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles	Sept 27	Bordeaux Begles	-3.70
2	Clermont vs. Castres Olympique	Sept 27	Clermont	11.40
3	Racing 92 vs. Bayonne	Sept 27	Racing 92	10.90
4	Stade Francais vs. Lyon	Sept 27	Stade Francais	9.80
5	Toulon vs. Vannes	Sept 27	Toulon	15.60
6	Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais	Sept 27	Section Paloise	6.70
7	Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier	Sept 28	Stade Toulousain	12.20

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 4 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

David Scott — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:30:50 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leicester Tigers	9.92	9.92	-0.00
Bath	9.66	9.66	-0.00
Northampton Saints	8.34	8.34	-0.00
Saracens	8.04	8.04	-0.00
Exeter Chiefs	7.58	7.58	-0.00
Bristol	-0.11	-0.11	0.00
Sale Sharks	-2.31	-2.31	-0.00
Gloucester	-3.46	-3.46	0.00
Harlequins	-3.58	-3.58	0.00
Newcastle Red Bulls	-25.37	-25.37	-0.00

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Harlequins vs. Bath	Sept 26	Bath	-6.20
2	Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Sept 26	Northampton Saints	40.70
3	Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester	Sept 27	Exeter Chiefs	18.00
4	Sale Sharks vs. Bristol	Sept 27	Sale Sharks	4.80
5	Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens	Sept 28	Leicester Tigers	8.90

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

David Scott — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:29:38 +0000

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	10.62	8.77	1.80
Warriors	7.94	-1.18	9.10
Dolphins	7.60	1.85	5.70
Roosters	6.45	9.50	-3.10
Storm	3.08	6.96	-3.90
Sharks	2.65	7.25	-4.60
Sea Eagles	2.09	0.21	1.90
Rabbitohs	2.06	-5.05	7.10
Knights	1.46	-14.06	15.50
Raiders	0.57	1.62	-1.00
Bulldogs	-1.37	2.13	-3.50
Cowboys	-3.94	-2.69	-1.30
Eels	-4.11	-0.37	-3.70
Broncos	-5.52	7.06	-12.60
Titans	-7.06	-8.02	1.00
Dragons	-10.59	-6.72	-3.90
Wests Tigers	-11.91	-7.26	-4.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 210 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Roosters vs. Sharks	Sept 19	46 – 10	3.60	TRUE
2	Warriors vs. Knights	Sept 20	10 – 12	12.60	FALSE

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Dolphins vs. Roosters	Sept 25	Dolphins	5.20
2	Panthers vs. Knights	Sept 27	Panthers	13.20

The post NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

David Scott — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:28:17 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Canterbury	9.44	10.29	-0.90
Otago	8.51	5.80	2.70
Hawke’s Bay	7.45	5.18	2.30
Taranaki	6.49	7.57	-1.10
Bay of Plenty	3.27	9.80	-6.50
Northland	3.09	-5.96	9.00
North Harbour	3.05	-4.18	7.20
Waikato	-0.26	-0.83	0.60
Auckland	-0.69	-2.64	1.90
Tasman	-0.96	0.68	-1.60
Counties Manukau	-3.57	3.63	-7.20
Wellington	-8.14	2.70	-10.80
Manawatu	-10.32	-15.05	4.70
Southland	-11.19	-10.83	-0.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Counties Manukau vs. Otago	Sept 17	21 – 50	-6.10	TRUE
2	Tasman vs. Auckland	Sept 18	22 – 24	4.20	FALSE
3	Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay	Sept 19	32 – 17	-3.70	FALSE
4	Waikato vs. Manawatu	Sept 19	36 – 27	14.30	TRUE
5	Wellington vs. Northland	Sept 19	28 – 52	-5.80	TRUE
6	North Harbour vs. Canterbury	Sept 20	24 – 25	-4.10	TRUE
7	Taranaki vs. Southland	Sept 20	55 – 19	18.30	TRUE

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty	Sept 24	Bay of Plenty	-1.20
2	Auckland vs. Manawatu	Sept 25	Auckland	12.60
3	Northland vs. Counties Manukau	Sept 26	Northland	9.70
4	Canterbury vs. Southland	Sept 26	Canterbury	23.60
5	North Harbour vs. Otago	Sept 26	Otago	-2.50
6	Wellington vs. Waikato	Sept 27	Waikato	-4.90
7	Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki	Sept 27	Hawke’s Bay	4.00

The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for the Grand Final

David Scott — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:26:46 +0000

Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Brisbane Lions	25.18	26.20	-1.00
Geelong Cats	24.17	26.75	-2.60
Sydney Swans	24.04	0.56	23.50
Fremantle Dockers	22.14	6.56	15.60
Hawthorn Hawks	18.94	22.83	-3.90
Adelaide Crows	12.34	15.32	-3.00
Melbourne Demons	9.05	1.64	7.40
Carlton Blues	6.99	-4.77	11.80
Western Bulldogs	4.93	26.06	-21.10
Collingwood	3.06	11.76	-8.70
GWS Giants	-0.48	9.54	-10.00
Gold Coast Suns	-1.87	10.24	-12.10
St Kilda Saints	-3.24	-7.63	4.40
North Melbourne	-10.83	-21.71	10.90
Port Adelaide Power	-18.07	-14.65	-3.40
West Coast Eagles	-33.36	-39.36	6.00
Richmond Tigers	-33.74	-29.44	-4.30
Essendon Bombers	-37.26	-27.89	-9.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 217 matches played, 153 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers	Sept 18	71 – 83	17.40	FALSE
2	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions	Sept 19	122 – 131	7.30	FALSE

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions	Sept 26	Brisbane Lions	-3.00

The post AFL Predictions for the Grand Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

NFL Predictions for Week 2

David Scott — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 03:51:41 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Seahawks	11.90	12.03	-0.10
Patriots	8.24	8.11	0.10
Jaguars	5.75	4.17	1.60
Bills	5.61	4.81	0.80
Texans	4.72	5.51	-0.80
Vikings	4.26	2.79	1.50
Lions	4.14	5.20	-1.10
Rams	3.96	6.16	-2.20
Ravens	3.91	2.53	1.40
49ers	2.83	0.63	2.20
Bears	2.67	1.18	1.50
Broncos	1.81	4.07	-2.30
Chiefs	0.92	-1.34	2.30
Bengals	0.62	0.39	0.20
Steelers	0.42	-0.43	0.80
Eagles	0.26	0.73	-0.50
Packers	0.24	1.72	-1.50
Chargers	-0.68	1.16	-1.80
Giants	-1.41	-2.38	1.00
Colts	-2.12	-0.74	-1.40
Falcons	-2.23	-1.39	-0.80
Saints	-2.32	-3.38	1.10
Browns	-4.08	-2.50	-1.60
Commanders	-4.18	-4.65	0.50
Buccaneers	-4.19	-3.95	-0.20
Raiders	-4.26	-5.72	1.50
Cowboys	-4.40	-3.42	-1.00
Dolphins	-5.45	-3.99	-1.50
Cardinals	-5.66	-7.49	1.80
Panthers	-6.15	-4.66	-1.50
Jets	-8.52	-9.84	1.30
Titans	-10.14	-8.81	-1.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Seahawks vs. Patriots	Sept 10	13 – 10	3.90	TRUE
2	Rams vs. 49ers	Sept 11	7 – 27	5.50	FALSE
3	Panthers vs. Bears	Sept 14	37 – 59	-5.80	TRUE
4	Bengals vs. Buccaneers	Sept 14	33 – 27	4.30	TRUE
5	Lions vs. Saints	Sept 14	31 – 30	8.60	TRUE
6	Texans vs. Bills	Sept 14	31 – 36	0.70	FALSE
7	Colts vs. Ravens	Sept 14	23 – 41	-3.30	TRUE
8	Jaguars vs. Browns	Sept 14	34 – 10	6.70	TRUE
9	Steelers vs. Falcons	Sept 14	20 – 13	1.00	TRUE
10	Titans vs. Jets	Sept 14	10 – 23	1.00	FALSE
11	Raiders vs. Dolphins	Sept 14	27 – 13	-1.70	FALSE
12	Chargers vs. Cardinals	Sept 14	14 – 26	8.70	FALSE
13	Vikings vs. Packers	Sept 14	39 – 22	1.10	TRUE
14	Eagles vs. Commanders	Sept 14	24 – 22	5.40	TRUE
15	Giants vs. Cowboys	Sept 14	28 – 20	1.00	TRUE
16	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Sept 15	31 – 10	-5.40	FALSE

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bills vs. Lions	Sept 18	Bills	1.50
2	Falcons vs. Panthers	Sept 21	Falcons	3.90
3	Ravens vs. Saints	Sept 21	Ravens	6.20
4	Bears vs. Vikings	Sept 21	Vikings	-1.60
5	Texans vs. Bengals	Sept 21	Texans	4.10
6	Patriots vs. Steelers	Sept 21	Patriots	7.80
7	Jets vs. Packers	Sept 21	Packers	-8.80
8	Buccaneers vs. Browns	Sept 21	Browns	-0.10
9	Titans vs. Eagles	Sept 21	Eagles	-10.40
10	Broncos vs. Jaguars	Sept 21	Jaguars	-3.90
11	Chargers vs. Raiders	Sept 21	Chargers	3.60
12	Cardinals vs. Seahawks	Sept 21	Seahawks	-17.60
13	Cowboys vs. Commanders	Sept 21	Commanders	-0.20
14	49ers vs. Dolphins	Sept 21	49ers	8.30
15	Chiefs vs. Colts	Sept 21	Chiefs	3.00
16	Rams vs. Giants	Sept 22	Rams	5.40

The post NFL Predictions for Week 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

David Scott — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 22:53:29 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.86	12.37	0.50
Montpellier	6.10	6.36	-0.30
Section Paloise	5.63	4.18	1.40
Stade Rochelais	5.31	4.97	0.30
Stade Francais	4.92	5.68	-0.80
Bordeaux Begles	4.40	3.70	0.70
Clermont	4.27	4.21	0.10
Racing 92	1.34	3.59	-2.20
Lyon	0.04	-0.94	1.00
Toulon	-0.66	-0.81	0.20
Castres Olympique	-1.15	-0.29	-0.90
Bayonne	-3.15	-2.02	-1.10
USA Perpignan	-4.42	-5.39	1.00
Vannes	-9.88	-10.00	0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Clermont vs. Stade Francais	Sept 13	25 – 16	5.40	TRUE
2	Racing 92 vs. Lyon	Sept 13	31 – 48	9.40	FALSE
3	Section Paloise vs. Bayonne	Sept 13	70 – 28	13.50	TRUE
4	USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique	Sept 13	43 – 29	2.40	TRUE
5	Vannes vs. Montpellier	Sept 13	12 – 26	-8.90	TRUE
6	Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais	Sept 13	20 – 21	0.70	FALSE
7	Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles	Sept 14	48 – 12	13.50	TRUE

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Castres Olympique vs. Toulon	Sept 20	Castres Olympique	6.00
2	Bayonne vs. Clermont	Sept 20	Clermont	-0.90
3	Lyon vs. Section Paloise	Sept 20	Lyon	0.90
4	Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan	Sept 20	Montpellier	17.00
5	Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92	Sept 20	Stade Rochelais	10.50
6	Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain	Sept 20	Stade Toulousain	-16.20
7	Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais	Sept 21	Bordeaux Begles	6.00

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 3 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

David Scott — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 22:52:50 +0000

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	10.62	8.77	1.80
Warriors	9.01	-1.18	10.20
Dolphins	7.60	1.85	5.70
Sharks	4.76	7.25	-2.50
Roosters	4.33	9.50	-5.20
Storm	3.08	6.96	-3.90
Sea Eagles	2.09	0.21	1.90
Rabbitohs	2.06	-5.05	7.10
Raiders	0.57	1.62	-1.00
Knights	0.38	-14.06	14.40
Bulldogs	-1.37	2.13	-3.50
Cowboys	-3.94	-2.69	-1.30
Eels	-4.11	-0.37	-3.70
Broncos	-5.52	7.06	-12.60
Titans	-7.06	-8.02	1.00
Dragons	-10.59	-6.72	-3.90
Wests Tigers	-11.91	-7.26	-4.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 208 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Rabbitohs vs. Knights	Sept 11	10 – 20	8.30	FALSE
2	Warriors vs. Dolphins	Sept 12	16 – 26	8.00	FALSE
3	Sharks vs. Cowboys	Sept 12	26 – 16	13.50	TRUE
4	Panthers vs. Roosters	Sept 13	19 – 12	11.20	TRUE

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Warriors vs. Knights	Sept 18	Warriors	12.60
2	Roosters vs. Sharks	Sept 19	Roosters	3.60

The post NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.