Stats Chat

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

David Scott — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:50:02 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bulls	11.12	10.00	1.10
Leinster	11.09	12.13	-1.00
Glasgow	7.28	6.47	0.80
Stormers	7.08	6.49	0.60
Sharks	3.27	2.16	1.10
Munster	1.63	1.25	0.40
Lions	1.35	1.48	-0.10
Connacht	0.87	2.62	-1.70
Edinburgh	0.15	-2.55	2.70
Ulster	-0.36	-0.32	-0.00
Cardiff Rugby	-2.45	-1.63	-0.80
Ospreys	-3.87	-3.35	-0.50
Scarlets	-5.89	-3.47	-2.40
Benetton	-6.76	-6.67	-0.10
Dragons	-8.91	-10.04	1.10
Zebre	-15.58	-14.56	-1.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Dragons vs. Ospreys	Oct 10	31 – 38	-1.10	TRUE
2	Glasgow vs. Connacht	Oct 10	36 – 19	10.30	TRUE
3	Bulls vs. Lions	Oct 11	57 – 15	9.50	TRUE
4	Stormers vs. Sharks	Oct 11	39 – 22	4.90	TRUE
5	Zebre vs. Edinburgh	Oct 11	12 – 29	-8.10	TRUE
6	Scarlets vs. Benetton	Oct 11	27 – 26	8.10	TRUE
7	Ulster vs. Munster	Oct 11	26 – 26	0.70	FALSE
8	Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby	Oct 11	29 – 5	17.50	TRUE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks	Oct 24	Sharks	-0.20
2	Connacht vs. Zebre	Oct 24	Connacht	21.90
3	Edinburgh vs. Lions	Oct 24	Edinburgh	4.30
4	Bulls vs. Ulster	Oct 25	Bulls	17.00
5	Benetton vs. Glasgow	Oct 25	Glasgow	-8.50
6	Stormers vs. Scarlets	Oct 25	Stormers	18.50
7	Leinster vs. Munster	Oct 25	Leinster	12.00
8	Ospreys vs. Dragons	Oct 25	Ospreys	7.50

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

David Scott — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:48:12 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.06	12.37	-0.30
Montpellier	6.67	6.36	0.30
Bordeaux Begles	5.37	3.70	1.70
Stade Rochelais	5.20	4.97	0.20
Section Paloise	4.82	4.18	0.60
Stade Francais	4.63	5.68	-1.00
Clermont	2.75	4.21	-1.50
Racing 92	1.72	3.59	-1.90
Toulon	-0.40	-0.81	0.40
Lyon	-0.52	-0.94	0.40
Castres Olympique	-0.91	-0.29	-0.60
Bayonne	-1.38	-2.02	0.60
USA Perpignan	-5.20	-5.39	0.20
Vannes	-9.20	-10.00	0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles	Oct 11	22 – 23	4.50	FALSE
2	Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais	Oct 11	16 – 28	1.80	FALSE
3	Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique	Oct 11	35 – 26	12.70	TRUE
4	Stade Francais vs. Montpellier	Oct 11	30 – 22	4.00	TRUE
5	Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne	Oct 11	45 – 34	20.70	TRUE
6	Toulon vs. Racing 92	Oct 11	29 – 15	3.60	TRUE
7	USA Perpignan vs. Vannes	Oct 11	21 – 12	10.70	TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bayonne vs. Lyon	Oct 25	Bayonne	5.60
2	Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais	Oct 25	Castres Olympique	1.00
3	Racing 92 vs. Montpellier	Oct 25	Racing 92	1.60
4	Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles	Oct 25	Stade Rochelais	6.30
5	Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan	Oct 25	Stade Toulousain	23.80
6	Toulon vs. Section Paloise	Oct 25	Toulon	1.30
7	Vannes vs. Clermont	Oct 25	Clermont	-5.50

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 7 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

David Scott — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:46:50 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bath	8.36	9.66	-1.30
Saracens	8.06	8.04	0.00
Northampton Saints	8.02	8.34	-0.30
Leicester Tigers	6.90	9.92	-3.00
Exeter Chiefs	3.42	7.58	-4.20
Gloucester	2.41	-3.46	5.90
Bristol	1.28	-0.11	1.40
Sale Sharks	-2.40	-2.31	-0.10
Harlequins	-6.30	-3.58	-2.70
Newcastle Red Bulls	-21.02	-25.37	4.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester	Oct 10	38 – 31	12.60	TRUE
2	Northampton Saints vs. Bath	Oct 11	71 – 48	3.80	TRUE
3	Saracens vs. Bristol	Oct 11	30 – 7	12.10	TRUE
4	Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Oct 12	34 – 28	35.70	TRUE
5	Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins	Oct 12	28 – 24	12.20	TRUE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Gloucester vs. Bath	Oct 24	Gloucester	1.10
2	Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks	Oct 24	Sale Sharks	-11.60
3	Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints	Oct 25	Leicester Tigers	5.90
4	Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs	Oct 25	Bristol	4.90
5	Harlequins vs. Saracens	Oct 26	Saracens	-7.40

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

David Scott — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:45:20 +0000

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Taranaki	11.18	7.57	3.60
Canterbury	9.63	10.29	-0.70
Otago	8.67	5.80	2.90
Bay of Plenty	3.05	9.80	-6.80
Northland	2.82	-5.96	8.80
Hawke’s Bay	2.56	5.18	-2.60
North Harbour	1.87	-4.18	6.00
Tasman	1.60	0.68	0.90
Auckland	-1.21	-2.64	1.40
Waikato	-1.89	-0.83	-1.10
Counties Manukau	-1.91	3.63	-5.50
Manawatu	-8.51	-15.05	6.50
Wellington	-10.77	2.70	-13.50
Southland	-10.93	-10.83	-0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Northland vs. Tasman	Oct 09	26 – 21	4.00	TRUE
2	North Harbour vs. Taranaki	Oct 10	31 – 50	-4.20	TRUE
3	Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay	Oct 10	50 – 14	5.40	TRUE
4	Canterbury vs. Waikato	Oct 11	62 – 26	11.40	TRUE

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Northland vs. Otago	Oct 16	Otago	-2.80
2	Canterbury vs. Taranaki	Oct 17	Canterbury	1.50

The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

NFL Predictions for Week 6

David Scott — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:41:26 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Seahawks	9.00	12.03	-3.00
Patriots	8.86	8.11	0.70
Bills	6.39	4.81	1.60
49ers	6.12	0.63	5.50
Jaguars	6.01	4.17	1.80
Rams	4.09	6.16	-2.10
Vikings	3.81	2.79	1.00
Broncos	3.00	4.07	-1.10
Lions	2.70	5.20	-2.50
Ravens	2.18	2.53	-0.30
Texans	2.18	5.51	-3.30
Chiefs	1.77	-1.34	3.10
Bengals	1.34	0.39	0.90
Bears	1.12	1.18	-0.10
Steelers	0.39	-0.43	0.80
Packers	-0.03	1.72	-1.70
Eagles	-0.87	0.73	-1.60
Colts	-1.02	-0.74	-0.30
Chargers	-1.46	1.16	-2.60
Falcons	-1.63	-1.39	-0.20
Giants	-2.31	-2.38	0.10
Panthers	-2.57	-4.66	2.10
Cowboys	-2.86	-3.42	0.60
Buccaneers	-2.98	-3.95	1.00
Raiders	-3.16	-5.72	2.60
Browns	-3.63	-2.50	-1.10
Saints	-4.63	-3.38	-1.30
Commanders	-4.78	-4.65	-0.10
Jets	-5.82	-9.84	4.00
Dolphins	-6.47	-3.99	-2.50
Cardinals	-8.64	-7.49	-1.10
Titans	-9.61	-8.81	-0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 79 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Cowboys vs. Buccaneers	Oct 09	16 – 24	3.30	FALSE
2	Jaguars vs. Eagles	Oct 12	19 – 17	8.80	TRUE
3	Dolphins vs. Bengals	Oct 12	24 – 31	-8.10	TRUE
4	Patriots vs. Raiders	Oct 12	45 – 17	8.50	TRUE
5	Saints vs. Vikings	Oct 12	13 – 23	-7.80	TRUE
6	Jets vs. Browns	Oct 12	17 – 12	-5.00	FALSE
7	Steelers vs. Colts	Oct 12	34 – 22	-1.10	FALSE
8	Titans vs. Texans	Oct 12	3 – 26	-9.20	TRUE
9	Commanders vs. Giants	Oct 12	27 – 27	-3.40	FALSE
10	Chargers vs. Broncos	Oct 12	17 – 23	-3.90	TRUE
11	Cardinals vs. Lions	Oct 12	21 – 45	-8.50	TRUE
12	Packers vs. Bears	Oct 12	31 – 7	-6.20	FALSE
13	Seahawks vs. 49ers	Oct 12	29 – 32	5.20	FALSE
14	Falcons vs. Ravens	Oct 12	23 – 30	-2.60	TRUE
15	Rams vs. Bills	Oct 13	34 – 37	-2.00	TRUE

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Broncos vs. Seahawks	Oct 16	Seahawks	-6.00
2	Jaguars vs. Texans	Oct 19	Jaguars	3.80
3	Falcons vs. Bears	Oct 19	Bears	-2.70
4	Browns vs. Ravens	Oct 19	Ravens	-5.80
5	Colts vs. Titans	Oct 19	Colts	8.60
6	Patriots vs. Jets	Oct 19	Patriots	14.70
7	Giants vs. Saints	Oct 19	Giants	2.30
8	Eagles vs. Panthers	Oct 19	Eagles	1.70
9	Buccaneers vs. Steelers	Oct 19	Steelers	-3.40
10	Rams vs. Cardinals	Oct 19	Rams	12.70
11	Chiefs vs. Chargers	Oct 19	Chiefs	3.20
12	Raiders vs. Bills	Oct 19	Bills	-9.60
13	Packers vs. Cowboys	Oct 19	Packers	2.80
14	49ers vs. Commanders	Oct 20	49ers	10.90

The post NFL Predictions for Week 6 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NFL Predictions for Week 5

David Scott — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 13:00:35 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Seahawks	10.14	12.03	-1.90
Patriots	7.12	8.11	-1.00
Jaguars	6.95	4.17	2.80
Bills	6.26	4.81	1.50
49ers	4.97	0.63	4.30
Rams	4.23	6.16	-1.90
Bears	3.66	1.18	2.50
Vikings	3.51	2.79	0.70
Broncos	2.70	4.07	-1.40
Chiefs	1.77	-1.34	3.10
Ravens	1.55	2.53	-1.00
Bengals	1.50	0.39	1.10
Lions	1.26	5.20	-3.90
Texans	0.87	5.51	-4.60
Colts	0.23	-0.74	1.00
Steelers	-0.86	-0.43	-0.40
Falcons	-1.00	-1.39	0.40
Chargers	-1.16	1.16	-2.30
Cowboys	-1.28	-3.42	2.10
Raiders	-1.41	-5.72	4.30
Eagles	-1.82	0.73	-2.60
Giants	-1.83	-2.38	0.60
Browns	-2.23	-2.50	0.30
Packers	-2.57	1.72	-4.30
Panthers	-2.57	-4.66	2.10
Saints	-4.32	-3.38	-0.90
Buccaneers	-4.56	-3.95	-0.60
Commanders	-5.26	-4.65	-0.60
Dolphins	-6.63	-3.99	-2.60
Cardinals	-7.19	-7.49	0.30
Jets	-7.22	-9.84	2.60
Titans	-8.31	-8.81	0.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Browns vs. Steelers	Oct 02	27 – 24	-3.10	FALSE
2	Commanders vs. Colts	Oct 05	13 – 30	-2.80	TRUE
3	Ravens vs. Titans	Oct 05	24 – 18	11.40	TRUE
4	Bills vs. Patriots	Oct 05	26 – 29	-0.00	TRUE
5	Bears vs. Jets	Oct 05	23 – 12	10.80	TRUE
6	Bengals vs. Jaguars	Oct 05	17 – 22	-5.60	TRUE
7	Texans vs. Cowboys	Oct 05	30 – 34	4.50	FALSE
8	Giants vs. Cardinals	Oct 05	36 – 24	2.80	TRUE
9	Eagles vs. Rams	Oct 05	20 – 24	-6.80	TRUE
10	Buccaneers vs. Packers	Oct 05	14 – 17	-1.60	TRUE
11	Vikings vs. Dolphins	Oct 05	15 – 10	12.10	TRUE
12	Raiders vs. Chiefs	Oct 05	27 – 30	-3.30	TRUE
13	49ers vs. Broncos	Oct 05	24 – 14	-0.70	FALSE
14	Seahawks vs. Chargers	Oct 05	30 – 23	13.00	TRUE
15	Panthers vs. Lions	Oct 05	32 – 26	-6.20	FALSE
16	Saints vs. Falcons	Oct 06	24 – 45	0.50	FALSE

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Cowboys vs. Buccaneers	Oct 09	Cowboys	3.30
2	Jaguars vs. Eagles	Oct 12	Jaguars	8.80
3	Dolphins vs. Bengals	Oct 12	Bengals	-8.10
4	Patriots vs. Raiders	Oct 12	Patriots	8.50
5	Saints vs. Vikings	Oct 12	Vikings	-7.80
6	Jets vs. Browns	Oct 12	Browns	-5.00
7	Steelers vs. Colts	Oct 12	Colts	-1.10
8	Titans vs. Texans	Oct 12	Texans	-9.20
9	Commanders vs. Giants	Oct 12	Giants	-3.40
10	Chargers vs. Broncos	Oct 12	Broncos	-3.90
11	Cardinals vs. Lions	Oct 12	Lions	-8.50
12	Packers vs. Bears	Oct 12	Bears	-6.20
13	Seahawks vs. 49ers	Oct 12	Seahawks	5.20
14	Falcons vs. Ravens	Oct 12	Ravens	-2.60
15	Rams vs. Bills	Oct 13	Bills	-2.00

The post NFL Predictions for Week 5 first appeared on Stats Chat.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

David Scott — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:21:47 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	10.31	12.13	-1.80
Bulls	9.74	10.00	-0.30
Glasgow	6.48	6.47	0.00
Stormers	6.39	6.49	-0.10
Sharks	3.96	2.16	1.80
Lions	2.72	1.48	1.20
Connacht	1.67	2.62	-0.90
Munster	1.55	1.25	0.30
Ulster	-0.28	-0.32	0.00
Edinburgh	-0.92	-2.55	1.60
Cardiff Rugby	-1.67	-1.63	-0.00
Ospreys	-4.58	-3.35	-1.20
Scarlets	-5.04	-3.47	-1.60
Benetton	-7.61	-6.67	-0.90
Dragons	-8.20	-10.04	1.80
Zebre	-14.51	-14.56	0.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 31.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Benetton vs. Connacht	Oct 03	19 – 22	-4.00	TRUE
2	Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre	Oct 03	40 – 27	20.00	TRUE
3	Edinburgh vs. Stormers	Oct 03	17 – 13	-3.60	FALSE
4	Lions vs. Ospreys	Oct 04	35 – 19	11.80	TRUE
5	Dragons vs. Scarlets	Oct 04	38 – 26	-2.20	FALSE
6	Sharks vs. Leinster	Oct 04	26 – 20	-3.00	FALSE
7	Glasgow vs. Ulster	Oct 04	33 – 33	13.80	FALSE
8	Munster vs. Bulls	Oct 04	26 – 22	-4.80	FALSE

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Dragons vs. Ospreys	Oct 10	Ospreys	-1.10
2	Glasgow vs. Connacht	Oct 10	Glasgow	10.30
3	Bulls vs. Lions	Oct 11	Bulls	9.50
4	Stormers vs. Sharks	Oct 11	Stormers	4.90
5	Zebre vs. Edinburgh	Oct 11	Edinburgh	-8.10
6	Scarlets vs. Benetton	Oct 11	Scarlets	8.10
7	Ulster vs. Munster	Oct 11	Ulster	0.70
8	Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby	Oct 11	Leinster	17.50

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

David Scott — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:20:42 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.43	12.37	0.10
Montpellier	6.91	6.36	0.50
Bordeaux Begles	5.04	3.70	1.30
Section Paloise	5.04	4.18	0.90
Stade Rochelais	4.71	4.97	-0.30
Stade Francais	4.39	5.68	-1.30
Clermont	3.08	4.21	-1.10
Racing 92	2.11	3.59	-1.50
Lyon	-0.03	-0.94	0.90
Toulon	-0.79	-0.81	0.00
Castres Olympique	-1.13	-0.29	-0.80
Bayonne	-1.75	-2.02	0.30
USA Perpignan	-5.10	-5.39	0.30
Vannes	-9.31	-10.00	0.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon	Oct 04	51 – 28	10.70	TRUE
2	Bayonne vs. Stade Francais	Oct 04	35 – 32	0.00	TRUE
3	Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan	Oct 04	55 – 25	12.50	TRUE
4	Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont	Oct 04	38 – 13	6.90	TRUE
5	Vannes vs. Section Paloise	Oct 04	40 – 43	-8.50	TRUE
6	Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain	Oct 04	7 – 8	-7.90	TRUE
7	Montpellier vs. Toulon	Oct 05	28 – 0	13.20	TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles	Oct 11	Clermont	4.50
2	Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais	Oct 11	Lyon	1.80
3	Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique	Oct 11	Section Paloise	12.70
4	Stade Francais vs. Montpellier	Oct 11	Stade Francais	4.00
5	Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne	Oct 11	Stade Toulousain	20.70
6	Toulon vs. Racing 92	Oct 11	Toulon	3.60
7	USA Perpignan vs. Vannes	Oct 11	USA Perpignan	10.70

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 6 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

David Scott — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:19:45 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bath	9.78	9.66	0.10
Leicester Tigers	7.46	9.92	-2.50
Saracens	7.20	8.04	-0.80
Northampton Saints	6.59	8.34	-1.80
Exeter Chiefs	5.53	7.58	-2.10
Bristol	2.14	-0.11	2.30
Gloucester	1.85	-3.46	5.30
Sale Sharks	-1.74	-2.31	0.60
Harlequins	-6.96	-3.58	-3.40
Newcastle Red Bulls	-23.14	-25.37	2.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs	Oct 03	40 – 34	12.60	TRUE
2	Bristol vs. Northampton Saints	Oct 04	41 – 26	0.30	TRUE
3	Gloucester vs. Harlequins	Oct 04	48 – 0	10.60	TRUE
4	Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Leicester Tigers	Oct 04	19 – 24	-26.80	TRUE
5	Saracens vs. Sale Sharks	Oct 05	17 – 21	19.30	FALSE

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester	Oct 10	Leicester Tigers	12.60
2	Northampton Saints vs. Bath	Oct 11	Northampton Saints	3.80
3	Saracens vs. Bristol	Oct 11	Saracens	12.10
4	Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Oct 12	Exeter Chiefs	35.70
5	Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins	Oct 12	Sale Sharks	12.20

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

David Scott — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:18:49 +0000

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Taranaki	10.14	7.57	2.60
Canterbury	8.08	10.29	-2.20
Otago	6.82	5.80	1.00
Hawke’s Bay	4.41	5.18	-0.80
Bay of Plenty	3.05	9.80	-6.80
North Harbour	2.91	-4.18	7.10
Northland	2.70	-5.96	8.70
Tasman	1.72	0.68	1.00
Waikato	-0.34	-0.83	0.50
Auckland	-1.21	-2.64	1.40
Counties Manukau	-1.91	3.63	-5.50
Manawatu	-8.51	-15.05	6.50
Wellington	-10.77	2.70	-13.50
Southland	-10.93	-10.83	-0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Otago vs. Auckland	Oct 01	45 – 42	12.50	TRUE
2	Southland vs. Northland	Oct 02	14 – 28	-9.60	TRUE
3	Manawatu vs. Canterbury	Oct 03	12 – 22	-14.70	TRUE
4	Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay	Oct 03	12 – 7	-4.80	FALSE
5	Waikato vs. Tasman	Oct 03	33 – 50	3.60	FALSE
6	Taranaki vs. Wellington	Oct 04	68 – 26	21.20	TRUE
7	Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour	Oct 04	38 – 21	0.90	TRUE

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Northland vs. Tasman	Oct 09	Northland	4.00
2	North Harbour vs. Taranaki	Oct 10	Taranaki	-4.20
3	Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay	Oct 10	Otago	5.40
4	Canterbury vs. Waikato	Oct 11	Canterbury	11.40

The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.