Stats Chat

NRL Predictions, Round 11

David Scott — Wed, 16 May 2012 02:42:37 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 11 Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference [...]

Super 15 Predictions, Week 13

David Scott — Wed, 16 May 2012 02:39:06 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 13 Here are the team ratings prior to Week 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this. Current Rating Rating at Season Start [...]

Stat of the Week winner: May 5-11 2012

Rachel Cunliffe — Mon, 14 May 2012 00:00:14 +0000

Thanks for all those who sent in a nomination last week for our Stat of the Week competition. Please enter this week’s competition too! With such a variety of nominations, it was hard for us to choose a winner but we particularly liked the critique of Conservative Party leader Colin Craig’s use of statistics from [...]

Stat of the Week Competition: May 12-18 2012

Rachel Cunliffe — Sun, 13 May 2012 21:27:26 +0000

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher. Here’s how it works: Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday May 18 2012. Statistics [...]

More for support than illumination

Thomas Lumley — Sun, 13 May 2012 18:11:52 +0000

There were two Stat-of-the-Week nominations (from Patricia de Guzman and Samantha Post) for the Conservative Party’s use of the Durex Sex Survey to oppose providing subsidised contraception. We’ve seen this survey number before on StatsChat and it was in the NZ media when the figures were released, back in 2007. What’s really striking about many of [...]

Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: May 12-18 2012

Rachel Cunliffe — Sun, 13 May 2012 18:00:52 +0000

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

Sampling error calculations

Thomas Lumley — Sun, 13 May 2012 17:40:06 +0000

In the Stat of the Week competition, Nick Iversen points to a poll with a margin of error given as 3.9% from a sample of 1004, where the simple formula based on sample size would give 3.1%, and writes The US poll uses 3.9%. I wonder if they are accounting for sampling bias as well [...]

Bogus polls treated as news

Thomas Lumley — Sat, 12 May 2012 21:07:30 +0000

In the past, newspapers would usually at least refer to their bogus polls of convenience samples as “unscientific”. Now the warning word simply seems to be “online”. The Herald’s headline “Mother’s Day off the cards for most: poll” is followed by the lead “Almost half of New Zealanders won’t be celebrating Mother’s Day today, according to [...]

NRL Predictions, Round 10

David Scott — Tue, 08 May 2012 22:40:45 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 10 Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference [...]

Super 15 Predictions, Week 12

David Scott — Tue, 08 May 2012 22:34:30 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 12 Here are the team ratings prior to Week 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this. Current Rating Rating at Season Start [...]