Stats Chat

NRL Predictions for Round 18

David Scott — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 22:51:59 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	12.29	8.77	3.50
Dolphins	8.46	1.85	6.60
Warriors	7.12	-1.18	8.30
Roosters	6.27	9.50	-3.20
Sea Eagles	6.23	0.21	6.00
Sharks	5.42	7.25	-1.80
Rabbitohs	2.69	-5.05	7.70
Storm	1.21	6.96	-5.70
Cowboys	-0.85	-2.69	1.80
Bulldogs	-2.61	2.13	-4.70
Broncos	-4.17	7.06	-11.20
Raiders	-4.57	1.62	-6.20
Knights	-4.89	-14.06	9.20
Titans	-6.47	-8.02	1.50
Eels	-7.28	-0.37	-6.90
Wests Tigers	-7.34	-7.26	-0.10
Dragons	-11.51	-6.72	-4.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Eels vs. Rabbitohs	Jun 25	12 – 32	-3.60	TRUE
2	Titans vs. Bulldogs	Jun 26	12 – 30	3.10	FALSE
3	Broncos vs. Roosters	Jun 26	18 – 24	-6.60	TRUE
4	Dolphins vs. Warriors	Jun 27	26 – 24	6.30	TRUE
5	Cowboys vs. Panthers	Jun 27	26 – 12	-12.70	FALSE
6	Sea Eagles vs. Storm	Jun 27	30 – 4	6.20	TRUE
7	Raiders vs. Dragons	Jun 28	24 – 16	11.80	TRUE
8	Knights vs. Wests Tigers	Jun 28	12 – 6	6.60	TRUE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Panthers vs. Rabbitohs	Jul 03	Panthers	13.60
2	Dragons vs. Wests Tigers	Jul 04	Wests Tigers	-0.20
3	Broncos vs. Sharks	Jul 04	Sharks	-5.60
4	Eels vs. Sea Eagles	Jul 05	Sea Eagles	-9.50
5	Knights vs. Dolphins	Jul 05	Dolphins	-9.40

The post NRL Predictions for Round 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 18

David Scott — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 22:50:51 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	27.95	26.75	1.20
Fremantle Dockers	26.12	6.56	19.60
Hawthorn Hawks	17.70	22.83	-5.10
Sydney Swans	16.44	0.56	15.90
Brisbane Lions	14.86	26.20	-11.30
Adelaide Crows	12.79	15.32	-2.50
Western Bulldogs	7.28	26.06	-18.80
Collingwood	4.28	11.76	-7.50
GWS Giants	4.22	9.54	-5.30
Melbourne Demons	3.66	1.64	2.00
Gold Coast Suns	2.65	10.24	-7.60
Carlton Blues	1.50	-4.77	6.30
St Kilda Saints	-1.27	-7.63	6.40
Port Adelaide Power	-5.75	-14.65	8.90
North Melbourne	-17.89	-21.71	3.80
Essendon Bombers	-30.14	-27.89	-2.20
West Coast Eagles	-33.88	-39.36	5.50
Richmond Tigers	-38.51	-29.44	-9.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans	Jun 25	126 – 83	3.50	TRUE
2	Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants	Jun 26	96 – 82	26.80	TRUE
3	Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles	Jun 27	117 – 64	44.90	TRUE
4	Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers	Jun 27	106 – 72	44.70	TRUE
5	Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows	Jun 27	97 – 71	-26.30	FALSE
6	North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers	Jun 28	79 – 65	11.90	TRUE
7	Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jun 28	80 – 29	31.40	TRUE

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions	Jul 02	Geelong Cats	24.10
2	Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs	Jul 03	Sydney Swans	20.20
3	West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows	Jul 03	Adelaide Crows	-35.70
4	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons	Jul 04	Hawthorn Hawks	25.00
5	GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers	Jul 04	Fremantle Dockers	-10.90
6	Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood	Jul 04	Gold Coast Suns	9.40
7	Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues	Jul 04	Carlton Blues	-35.00
8	Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints	Jul 05	St Kilda Saints	-23.90
9	Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne	Jul 05	Port Adelaide Power	23.10

The post AFL Predictions for Week 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Round 17

David Scott — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 04:26:45 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	14.08	8.77	5.30
Dolphins	8.93	1.85	7.10
Warriors	6.65	-1.18	7.80
Roosters	6.34	9.50	-3.20
Sharks	5.42	7.25	-1.80
Sea Eagles	4.84	0.21	4.60
Storm	2.60	6.96	-4.40
Rabbitohs	1.51	-5.05	6.60
Cowboys	-2.65	-2.69	0.00
Bulldogs	-4.08	2.13	-6.20
Raiders	-4.16	1.62	-5.80
Broncos	-4.24	7.06	-11.30
Knights	-4.82	-14.06	9.20
Titans	-5.01	-8.02	3.00
Eels	-6.10	-0.37	-5.70
Wests Tigers	-7.41	-7.26	-0.20
Dragons	-11.93	-6.72	-5.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Knights vs. Dragons	Jun 19	22 – 20	12.80	TRUE
2	Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins	Jun 20	22 – 36	-11.90	TRUE
3	Titans vs. Panthers	Jun 20	19 – 18	-17.70	FALSE
4	Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles	Jun 20	13 – 12	-6.60	FALSE
5	Warriors vs. Cowboys	Jun 21	38 – 20	12.00	TRUE
6	Storm vs. Raiders	Jun 21	42 – 20	8.80	TRUE
7	Roosters vs. Sharks	Jun 21	27 – 8	2.50	TRUE

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Eels vs. Rabbitohs	Jun 25	Rabbitohs	-3.60
2	Titans vs. Bulldogs	Jun 26	Titans	3.10
3	Broncos vs. Roosters	Jun 26	Roosters	-6.60
4	Dolphins vs. Warriors	Jun 27	Dolphins	6.30
5	Cowboys vs. Panthers	Jun 27	Panthers	-12.70
6	Sea Eagles vs. Storm	Jun 27	Sea Eagles	6.20
7	Raiders vs. Dragons	Jun 28	Raiders	11.80
8	Knights vs. Wests Tigers	Jun 28	Knights	6.60

The post NRL Predictions for Round 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 17

David Scott — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 04:25:47 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	27.95	26.75	1.20
Fremantle Dockers	24.60	6.56	18.00
Sydney Swans	19.39	0.56	18.80
Hawthorn Hawks	18.85	22.83	-4.00
Adelaide Crows	16.65	15.32	1.30
Brisbane Lions	11.90	26.20	-14.30
Western Bulldogs	7.28	26.06	-18.80
Collingwood	5.25	11.76	-6.50
Gold Coast Suns	4.17	10.24	-6.10
Melbourne Demons	3.66	1.64	2.00
GWS Giants	3.07	9.54	-6.50
Carlton Blues	0.77	-4.77	5.50
St Kilda Saints	-1.27	-7.63	6.40
Port Adelaide Power	-9.60	-14.65	5.00
North Melbourne	-18.08	-21.71	3.60
Essendon Bombers	-29.94	-27.89	-2.00
West Coast Eagles	-33.15	-39.36	6.20
Richmond Tigers	-39.48	-29.44	-10.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats	Jun 18	99 – 90	7.40	TRUE
2	Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Jun 19	97 – 113	-1.40	TRUE
3	Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons	Jun 20	79 – 62	25.50	TRUE
4	GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues	Jun 20	65 – 88	19.70	FALSE
5	Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power	Jun 20	78 – 51	25.60	TRUE
6	Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne	Jun 21	48 – 73	-20.60	TRUE
7	St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs	Jun 21	61 – 83	-6.00	TRUE

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans	Jun 25	Brisbane Lions	3.50
2	Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants	Jun 26	Hawthorn Hawks	26.80
3	Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles	Jun 27	Carlton Blues	44.90
4	Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers	Jun 27	Collingwood	44.70
5	Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows	Jun 27	Adelaide Crows	-26.30
6	North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers	Jun 28	North Melbourne	11.90
7	Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jun 28	Fremantle Dockers	31.40

The post AFL Predictions for Week 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

David Scott — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:46:13 +0000

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.50	11.56	0.90
Stade Francais	6.18	-2.17	8.40
Montpellier	6.13	-0.21	6.30
Stade Rochelais	4.87	1.22	3.70
Racing 92	4.78	1.88	2.90
Bordeaux Begles	4.05	4.78	-0.70
Section Paloise	3.90	2.21	1.70
Clermont	3.53	1.88	1.60
Lyon	-0.72	-0.45	-0.30
Toulon	-0.73	3.49	-4.20
Castres Olympique	-0.74	0.59	-1.30
Bayonne	-1.91	1.48	-3.40
USA Perpignan	-5.85	-3.37	-2.50
Montauban	-23.12	-10.00	-13.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 142 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Section Paloise vs. Racing 92	Jun 14	31 – 33	6.70	FALSE
2	Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais	Jun 15	45 – 5	5.80	TRUE

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92	Jun 20	Stade Toulousain	14.20
2	Montpellier vs. Stade Francais	Jun 21	Montpellier	6.50

The post Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

David Scott — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:45:24 +0000

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Hurricanes	14.76	8.29	6.50
Chiefs	14.40	12.36	2.00
Crusaders	9.09	8.41	0.70
Blues	5.40	8.91	-3.50
Brumbies	1.90	5.59	-3.70
Reds	0.41	1.74	-1.30
Highlanders	-3.16	-3.06	-0.10
Western Force	-3.89	-6.29	2.40
Waratahs	-4.57	-5.84	1.30
Fijian Drua	-7.96	-7.64	-0.30
Moana Pasifika	-11.80	-7.88	-3.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Chiefs vs. Crusaders	Jun 12	49 – 12	8.30	TRUE
2	Hurricanes vs. Blues	Jun 13	57 – 21	12.60	TRUE

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Hurricanes vs. Chiefs	Jun 20	Hurricanes	5.40

The post Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

David Scott — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:44:29 +0000

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leicester Tigers	9.96	5.55	4.40
Bath	9.82	10.30	-0.50
Saracens	8.02	5.03	3.00
Northampton Saints	7.90	-1.47	9.40
Exeter Chiefs	7.39	-4.58	12.00
Bristol	-0.13	3.66	-3.80
Sale Sharks	-2.09	6.70	-8.80
Gloucester	-3.20	4.13	-7.30
Harlequins	-3.75	-3.02	-0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls	-26.06	-18.45	-7.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers	Jun 13	45 – 31	3.20	TRUE
2	Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs	Jun 14	26 – 27	11.30	FALSE

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs	Jun 21	Northampton Saints	7.50

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Round 16

David Scott — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:43:20 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	15.41	8.77	6.60
Dolphins	8.70	1.85	6.80
Sharks	6.61	7.25	-0.60
Warriors	5.99	-1.18	7.20
Sea Eagles	5.68	0.21	5.50
Roosters	5.15	9.50	-4.40
Storm	1.61	6.96	-5.30
Rabbitohs	1.51	-5.05	6.60
Cowboys	-1.98	-2.69	0.70
Raiders	-3.17	1.62	-4.80
Knights	-4.00	-14.06	10.10
Broncos	-4.24	7.06	-11.30
Bulldogs	-4.91	2.13	-7.00
Eels	-6.10	-0.37	-5.70
Titans	-6.34	-8.02	1.70
Wests Tigers	-7.18	-7.26	0.10
Dragons	-12.76	-6.72	-6.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Rabbitohs vs. Broncos	Jun 11	48 – 6	5.00	TRUE
2	Dolphins vs. Roosters	Jun 12	48 – 10	3.00	TRUE
3	Warriors vs. Sharks	Jun 13	8 – 10	4.90	FALSE
4	Eels vs. Raiders	Jun 13	15 – 12	0.50	TRUE
5	Wests Tigers vs. Titans	Jun 14	36 – 28	1.80	TRUE

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Knights vs. Dragons	Jun 19	Knights	12.80
2	Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins	Jun 20	Dolphins	-11.90
3	Titans vs. Panthers	Jun 20	Panthers	-17.70
4	Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles	Jun 20	Sea Eagles	-6.60
5	Warriors vs. Cowboys	Jun 21	Warriors	12.00
6	Storm vs. Raiders	Jun 21	Storm	8.80
7	Roosters vs. Sharks	Jun 21	Roosters	2.50

The post NRL Predictions for Round 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 16

David Scott — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:41:53 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	28.10	26.75	1.40
Fremantle Dockers	24.45	6.56	17.90
Sydney Swans	19.39	0.56	18.80
Hawthorn Hawks	17.69	22.83	-5.10
Adelaide Crows	17.42	15.32	2.10
Brisbane Lions	11.90	26.20	-14.30
GWS Giants	6.25	9.54	-3.30
Western Bulldogs	6.03	26.06	-20.00
Gold Coast Suns	5.32	10.24	-4.90
Collingwood	5.12	11.76	-6.60
Melbourne Demons	2.89	1.64	1.30
St Kilda Saints	-0.02	-7.63	7.60
Carlton Blues	-2.41	-4.77	2.40
Port Adelaide Power	-9.48	-14.65	5.20
North Melbourne	-18.48	-21.71	3.20
Essendon Bombers	-29.94	-27.89	-2.00
West Coast Eagles	-33.15	-39.36	6.20
Richmond Tigers	-39.09	-29.44	-9.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows	Jun 11	64 – 121	9.30	FALSE
2	Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jun 12	105 – 60	31.30	TRUE
3	Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers	Jun 13	95 – 50	30.60	TRUE
4	North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles	Jun 13	74 – 73	4.30	TRUE
5	Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans	Jun 13	90 – 93	-20.60	TRUE
6	Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions	Jun 14	80 – 115	-53.90	TRUE
7	St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants	Jun 14	96 – 88	4.00	TRUE

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats	Jun 18	Fremantle Dockers	7.40
2	Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Jun 19	Hawthorn Hawks	-1.40
3	Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons	Jun 20	Adelaide Crows	25.50
4	GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues	Jun 20	GWS Giants	19.70
5	Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power	Jun 20	Collingwood	25.60
6	Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne	Jun 21	North Melbourne	-20.60
7	St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs	Jun 21	Western Bulldogs	-6.00

The post AFL Predictions for Week 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:43:10 +0000

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	11.59	13.41	-1.80
Bulls	11.21	8.86	2.30
Stormers	7.05	4.17	2.90
Glasgow	6.24	6.18	0.10
Connacht	2.73	-1.39	4.10
Sharks	2.15	1.29	0.90
Munster	1.65	3.65	-2.00
Lions	1.53	-1.19	2.70
Ulster	-0.38	-3.24	2.90
Cardiff Rugby	-2.27	-2.74	0.50
Edinburgh	-3.43	2.67	-6.10
Scarlets	-3.61	-0.54	-3.10
Ospreys	-3.70	-2.15	-1.60
Benetton	-6.97	-2.32	-4.70
Dragons	-9.62	-15.66	6.00
Zebre	-14.18	-11.02	-3.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Glasgow vs. Bulls	Jun 07	21 – 22	2.90	FALSE
2	Leinster vs. Stormers	Jun 07	20 – 11	12.20	TRUE

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Leinster vs. Bulls	Jun 20	Leinster	7.40

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final first appeared on Stats Chat.