Stats Chat

NFL Predictions for Week 9

David Scott — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 06:48:27 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Jaguars	7.40	4.17	3.20
Bills	7.23	4.81	2.40
Seahawks	6.95	12.03	-5.10
Bears	5.49	1.18	4.30
Patriots	5.15	8.11	-3.00
Rams	5.15	6.16	-1.00
Broncos	4.78	4.07	0.70
49ers	3.89	0.63	3.30
Lions	3.57	5.20	-1.60
Vikings	3.10	2.79	0.30
Steelers	2.71	-0.43	3.10
Bengals	2.67	0.39	2.30
Texans	1.91	5.51	-3.60
Chiefs	1.64	-1.34	3.00
Packers	1.24	1.72	-0.50
Buccaneers	0.66	-3.95	4.60
Falcons	-2.30	-1.39	-0.90
Giants	-2.40	-2.38	-0.00
Commanders	-2.51	-4.65	2.10
Ravens	-2.72	2.53	-5.20
Raiders	-3.08	-5.72	2.60
Cowboys	-3.35	-3.42	0.10
Saints	-3.57	-3.38	-0.20
Chargers	-3.85	1.16	-5.00
Browns	-4.36	-2.50	-1.90
Panthers	-4.47	-4.66	0.20
Colts	-4.70	-0.74	-4.00
Dolphins	-4.84	-3.99	-0.90
Eagles	-5.36	0.73	-6.10
Jets	-5.84	-9.84	4.00
Cardinals	-6.42	-7.49	1.10
Titans	-7.27	-8.81	1.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Packers vs. Panthers	Oct 30	27 – 19	4.80	TRUE
2	Bills vs. Ravens	Nov 02	36 – 10	6.40	TRUE
3	Bengals vs. Titans	Nov 02	43 – 36	11.10	TRUE
4	Cowboys vs. Cardinals	Nov 02	30 – 33	5.40	FALSE
5	Lions vs. Vikings	Nov 02	19 – 15	-0.90	FALSE
6	Jaguars vs. Colts	Nov 02	42 – 7	7.40	TRUE
7	Jets vs. Raiders	Nov 02	33 – 38	-1.90	TRUE
8	Steelers vs. Browns	Nov 02	27 – 6	3.90	TRUE
9	Buccaneers vs. Falcons	Nov 02	16 – 0	0.00	TRUE
10	Rams vs. Chargers	Nov 02	24 – 9	6.70	TRUE
11	Broncos vs. Chiefs	Nov 02	28 – 24	2.80	TRUE
12	Dolphins vs. Patriots	Nov 02	19 – 24	-11.90	TRUE
13	Commanders vs. Eagles	Nov 02	27 – 10	-0.30	FALSE
14	Seahawks vs. Bears	Nov 03	17 – 34	5.40	FALSE

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Ravens vs. Jaguars	Nov 06	Jaguars	-10.10
2	Falcons vs. Bengals	Nov 09	Bengals	-5.00
3	Panthers vs. Broncos	Nov 09	Broncos	-9.20
4	Colts vs. Cowboys	Nov 09	Cowboys	-1.40
5	Chiefs vs. Jets	Nov 09	Chiefs	7.50
6	Dolphins vs. Lions	Nov 09	Lions	-8.40
7	Saints vs. Browns	Nov 09	Saints	0.80
8	Eagles vs. Giants	Nov 09	Giants	-3.00
9	Commanders vs. Rams	Nov 09	Rams	-7.70
10	Chargers vs. Texans	Nov 09	Texans	-5.80
11	49ers vs. Raiders	Nov 09	49ers	7.00
12	Patriots vs. Packers	Nov 09	Patriots	3.90
13	Seahawks vs. Cardinals	Nov 09	Seahawks	13.40
14	Bears vs. Buccaneers	Nov 09	Bears	4.80
15	Vikings vs. Bills	Nov 10	Bills	-4.10

The post NFL Predictions for Week 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

David Scott — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 23:12:25 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	11.90	12.13	-0.20
Bulls	10.92	10.00	0.90
Stormers	7.10	6.49	0.60
Glasgow	6.40	6.47	-0.10
Sharks	4.89	2.16	2.70
Munster	1.52	1.25	0.30
Lions	0.82	1.48	-0.70
Edinburgh	0.01	-2.55	2.60
Ulster	-0.08	-0.32	0.20
Connacht	-0.78	2.62	-3.40
Cardiff Rugby	-1.98	-1.63	-0.40
Ospreys	-4.00	-3.35	-0.60
Benetton	-5.22	-6.67	1.50
Scarlets	-5.99	-3.47	-2.50
Dragons	-9.44	-10.04	0.60
Zebre	-16.07	-14.56	-1.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Connacht vs. Leinster	Oct 31	5 – 50	-7.10	TRUE
2	Glasgow vs. Lions	Oct 31	29 – 20	11.70	TRUE
3	Stormers vs. Ulster	Nov 01	33 – 7	11.10	TRUE
4	Benetton vs. Edinburgh	Nov 01	31 – 12	-1.70	FALSE
5	Bulls vs. Scarlets	Nov 01	54 – 26	20.70	TRUE
6	Dragons vs. Zebre	Nov 01	35 – 14	10.90	TRUE
7	Munster vs. Sharks	Nov 01	3 – 15	3.80	FALSE
8	Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby	Nov 01	0 – 26	3.00	FALSE

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Edinburgh vs. Dragons	Dec 05	Edinburgh	14.90
2	Ospreys vs. Leinster	Dec 05	Leinster	-10.40
3	Lions vs. Bulls	Dec 06	Bulls	-7.60
4	Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster	Dec 06	Cardiff Rugby	3.60
5	Sharks vs. Stormers	Dec 06	Sharks	0.30
6	Scarlets vs. Connacht	Dec 06	Scarlets	0.30
7	Glasgow vs. Benetton	Dec 06	Glasgow	17.10
8	Zebre vs. Munster	Dec 06	Munster	-12.10

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

David Scott — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 23:11:10 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	10.76	12.37	-1.60
Montpellier	8.20	6.36	1.80
Bordeaux Begles	5.47	3.70	1.80
Section Paloise	4.84	4.18	0.70
Stade Francais	4.68	5.68	-1.00
Stade Rochelais	4.28	4.97	-0.70
Clermont	2.34	4.21	-1.90
Racing 92	1.47	3.59	-2.10
Toulon	0.41	-0.81	1.20
Lyon	0.32	-0.94	1.30
Bayonne	-1.40	-2.02	0.60
Castres Olympique	-1.75	-0.29	-1.50
USA Perpignan	-4.73	-5.39	0.70
Vannes	-9.29	-10.00	0.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne	Nov 01	19 – 14	14.10	TRUE
2	Clermont vs. Racing 92	Nov 01	37 – 30	7.40	TRUE
3	Lyon vs. Vannes	Nov 01	48 – 25	15.20	TRUE
4	Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique	Nov 01	69 – 10	13.90	TRUE
5	Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais	Nov 01	43 – 24	6.00	TRUE
6	USA Perpignan vs. Toulon	Nov 01	24 – 25	1.70	FALSE
7	Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain	Nov 02	34 – 14	-0.80	FALSE

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92	Nov 08	Castres Olympique	3.30
2	Montpellier vs. Lyon	Nov 08	Montpellier	14.40
3	Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan	Nov 08	Section Paloise	16.10
4	Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne	Nov 08	Stade Rochelais	12.20
5	Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont	Nov 08	Stade Toulousain	14.90
6	Toulon vs. Stade Francais	Nov 08	Toulon	2.20
7	Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles	Nov 08	Bordeaux Begles	-8.30

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

David Scott — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 23:10:01 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leicester Tigers	8.74	9.92	-1.20
Northampton Saints	7.25	8.34	-1.10
Bath	6.26	9.66	-3.40
Saracens	4.45	8.04	-3.60
Gloucester	3.31	-3.46	6.80
Exeter Chiefs	1.46	7.58	-6.10
Bristol	1.25	-0.11	1.40
Harlequins	-3.17	-3.58	0.40
Sale Sharks	-3.44	-2.31	-1.10
Newcastle Red Bulls	-17.40	-25.37	8.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers	Oct 31	16 – 22	0.90	FALSE
2	Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins	Nov 01	28 – 31	14.20	FALSE
3	Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Nov 01	39 – 31	32.40	TRUE
4	Bath vs. Sale Sharks	Nov 01	36 – 28	18.30	TRUE
5	Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester	Nov 01	28 – 14	10.20	TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bath vs. Bristol	Dec 05	Bath	12.00
2	Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Dec 06	Gloucester	27.70
3	Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers	Dec 06	Leicester Tigers	-4.90
4	Saracens vs. Northampton Saints	Dec 06	Saracens	4.20
5	Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs	Dec 07	Sale Sharks	2.10

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6 first appeared on Stats Chat.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

David Scott — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 03:56:48 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	10.37	12.13	-1.80
Bulls	10.04	10.00	0.00
Glasgow	6.73	6.47	0.30
Stormers	6.30	6.49	-0.20
Sharks	4.06	2.16	1.90
Munster	2.35	1.25	1.10
Edinburgh	1.01	-2.55	3.60
Connacht	0.75	2.62	-1.90
Ulster	0.72	-0.32	1.00
Lions	0.49	1.48	-1.00
Ospreys	-2.74	-3.35	0.60
Cardiff Rugby	-3.24	-1.63	-1.60
Scarlets	-5.11	-3.47	-1.60
Benetton	-6.22	-6.67	0.50
Dragons	-10.04	-10.04	-0.00
Zebre	-15.47	-14.56	-0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks	Oct 24	21 – 36	-0.20	TRUE
2	Connacht vs. Zebre	Oct 24	48 – 27	21.90	TRUE
3	Edinburgh vs. Lions	Oct 24	31 – 10	4.30	TRUE
4	Bulls vs. Ulster	Oct 25	34 – 26	17.00	TRUE
5	Benetton vs. Glasgow	Oct 25	20 – 24	-8.50	TRUE
6	Stormers vs. Scarlets	Oct 25	52 – 40	18.50	TRUE
7	Leinster vs. Munster	Oct 25	24 – 18	12.00	TRUE
8	Ospreys vs. Dragons	Oct 25	31 – 14	7.50	TRUE

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Connacht vs. Leinster	Oct 31	Leinster	-7.10
2	Glasgow vs. Lions	Oct 31	Glasgow	11.70
3	Stormers vs. Ulster	Nov 01	Stormers	11.10
4	Benetton vs. Edinburgh	Nov 01	Edinburgh	-1.70
5	Bulls vs. Scarlets	Nov 01	Bulls	20.70
6	Dragons vs. Zebre	Nov 01	Dragons	10.90
7	Munster vs. Sharks	Nov 01	Munster	3.80
8	Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby	Nov 01	Ospreys	3.00

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

David Scott — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 03:55:33 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	11.44	12.37	-0.90
Montpellier	6.94	6.36	0.60
Bordeaux Begles	5.82	3.70	2.10
Stade Rochelais	4.75	4.97	-0.20
Stade Francais	4.21	5.68	-1.50
Section Paloise	4.17	4.18	-0.00
Clermont	2.36	4.21	-1.90
Racing 92	1.44	3.59	-2.10
Toulon	0.25	-0.81	1.10
Lyon	-0.15	-0.94	0.80
Castres Olympique	-0.49	-0.29	-0.20
Bayonne	-1.75	-2.02	0.30
USA Perpignan	-4.57	-5.39	0.80
Vannes	-8.82	-10.00	1.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bayonne vs. Lyon	Oct 25	27 – 31	5.60	FALSE
2	Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais	Oct 25	16 – 8	1.00	TRUE
3	Racing 92 vs. Montpellier	Oct 25	17 – 20	1.60	FALSE
4	Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles	Oct 25	19 – 25	6.30	FALSE
5	Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan	Oct 25	38 – 33	23.80	TRUE
6	Toulon vs. Section Paloise	Oct 25	41 – 20	1.30	TRUE
7	Vannes vs. Clermont	Oct 25	27 – 26	-5.50	FALSE

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne	Nov 01	Bordeaux Begles	14.10
2	Clermont vs. Racing 92	Nov 01	Clermont	7.40
3	Lyon vs. Vannes	Nov 01	Lyon	15.20
4	Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique	Nov 01	Montpellier	13.90
5	Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais	Nov 01	Stade Francais	6.00
6	USA Perpignan vs. Toulon	Nov 01	USA Perpignan	1.70
7	Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain	Nov 02	Stade Toulousain	-0.80

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 8 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

David Scott — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 03:54:48 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leicester Tigers	8.05	9.92	-1.90
Bath	7.08	9.66	-2.60
Northampton Saints	6.87	8.34	-1.50
Saracens	6.22	8.04	-1.80
Gloucester	3.69	-3.46	7.20
Exeter Chiefs	2.76	7.58	-4.80
Bristol	1.94	-0.11	2.10
Sale Sharks	-4.26	-2.31	-2.00
Harlequins	-4.46	-3.58	-0.90
Newcastle Red Bulls	-19.17	-25.37	6.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Gloucester vs. Bath	Oct 24	23 – 5	1.10	TRUE
2	Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks	Oct 24	17 – 3	-11.60	FALSE
3	Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints	Oct 25	28 – 7	5.90	TRUE
4	Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs	Oct 25	20 – 7	4.90	TRUE
5	Harlequins vs. Saracens	Oct 26	33 – 15	-7.40	FALSE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers	Oct 31	Bristol	0.90
2	Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins	Nov 01	Exeter Chiefs	14.20
3	Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Nov 01	Saracens	32.40
4	Bath vs. Sale Sharks	Nov 01	Bath	18.30
5	Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester	Nov 01	Northampton Saints	10.20

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NFL Predictions for Week 8

David Scott — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 03:53:49 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Seahawks	8.91	12.03	-3.10
Patriots	6.12	8.11	-2.00
Bills	5.47	4.81	0.70
Jaguars	5.05	4.17	0.90
Broncos	4.61	4.07	0.50
Rams	3.98	6.16	-2.20
49ers	3.89	0.63	3.30
Vikings	3.79	2.79	1.00
Bears	3.52	1.18	2.30
Bengals	3.25	0.39	2.90
Lions	2.88	5.20	-2.30
Texans	1.91	5.51	-3.60
Chiefs	1.81	-1.34	3.20
Steelers	1.15	-0.43	1.60
Packers	0.80	1.72	-0.90
Buccaneers	-0.82	-3.95	3.10
Falcons	-0.82	-1.39	0.60
Ravens	-0.97	2.53	-3.50
Cowboys	-2.17	-3.42	1.30
Colts	-2.36	-0.74	-1.60
Giants	-2.40	-2.38	-0.00
Chargers	-2.68	1.16	-3.80
Browns	-2.80	-2.50	-0.30
Raiders	-3.51	-5.72	2.20
Saints	-3.57	-3.38	-0.20
Eagles	-3.78	0.73	-4.50
Panthers	-4.02	-4.66	0.60
Commanders	-4.09	-4.65	0.60
Jets	-5.41	-9.84	4.40
Dolphins	-5.81	-3.99	-1.80
Cardinals	-7.61	-7.49	-0.10
Titans	-7.85	-8.81	1.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bears vs. Patriots	Oct 23	30 – 24	-5.90	FALSE
2	Saints vs. Steelers	Oct 26	10 – 16	-4.20	TRUE
3	Falcons vs. 49ers	Oct 26	29 – 20	-7.80	FALSE
4	Ravens vs. Bengals	Oct 26	13 – 35	-0.40	TRUE
5	Panthers vs. Buccaneers	Oct 26	13 – 43	2.10	FALSE
6	Texans vs. Giants	Oct 26	21 – 27	6.70	FALSE
7	Vikings vs. Colts	Oct 26	16 – 10	6.20	TRUE
8	Jets vs. Dolphins	Oct 26	25 – 28	1.70	FALSE
9	Titans vs. Browns	Oct 26	24 – 27	-5.80	TRUE
10	Cardinals vs. Broncos	Oct 26	16 – 30	-11.50	TRUE
11	Lions vs. Packers	Oct 26	20 – 17	1.70	TRUE
12	Raiders vs. Rams	Oct 26	21 – 35	-5.00	TRUE
13	Seahawks vs. Chiefs	Oct 26	20 – 3	4.80	TRUE
14	Eagles vs. Cowboys	Oct 27	21 – 38	1.80	FALSE

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Packers vs. Panthers	Oct 30	Packers	4.80
2	Bills vs. Ravens	Nov 02	Bills	6.40
3	Bengals vs. Titans	Nov 02	Bengals	11.10
4	Cowboys vs. Cardinals	Nov 02	Cowboys	5.40
5	Lions vs. Vikings	Nov 02	Vikings	-0.90
6	Jaguars vs. Colts	Nov 02	Jaguars	7.40
7	Jets vs. Raiders	Nov 02	Raiders	-1.90
8	Steelers vs. Browns	Nov 02	Steelers	3.90
9	Buccaneers vs. Falcons	Nov 02	Buccaneers	0.00
10	Rams vs. Chargers	Nov 02	Rams	6.70
11	Broncos vs. Chiefs	Nov 02	Broncos	2.80
12	Dolphins vs. Patriots	Nov 02	Patriots	-11.90
13	Commanders vs. Eagles	Nov 02	Eagles	-0.30
14	Seahawks vs. Bears	Nov 03	Seahawks	5.40

The post NFL Predictions for Week 8 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

David Scott — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:28:21 +0000

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Canterbury	10.66	10.29	0.40
Taranaki	10.15	7.57	2.60
Otago	7.26	5.80	1.50
Northland	4.24	-5.96	10.20
Bay of Plenty	3.05	9.80	-6.80
Hawke’s Bay	2.56	5.18	-2.60
North Harbour	1.87	-4.18	6.00
Tasman	1.60	0.68	0.90
Auckland	-1.21	-2.64	1.40
Waikato	-1.89	-0.83	-1.10
Counties Manukau	-1.91	3.63	-5.50
Manawatu	-8.51	-15.05	6.50
Wellington	-10.77	2.70	-13.50
Southland	-10.93	-10.83	-0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Northland vs. Otago	Oct 16	38 – 19	-2.80	FALSE
2	Canterbury vs. Taranaki	Oct 17	38 – 28	1.50	TRUE

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Canterbury vs. Northland	Oct 17	Canterbury	9.40

The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

NFL Predictions for Week 7

David Scott — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:27:40 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Patriots	7.79	8.11	-0.30
Seahawks	7.74	12.03	-4.30
Bills	5.47	4.81	0.70
49ers	5.43	0.63	4.80
Jaguars	5.05	4.17	0.90
Broncos	4.26	4.07	0.20
Vikings	3.81	2.79	1.00
Texans	3.13	5.51	-2.40
Chiefs	2.99	-1.34	4.30
Rams	2.72	6.16	-3.40
Lions	2.70	5.20	-2.50
Bears	1.85	1.18	0.70
Bengals	1.34	0.39	0.90
Packers	0.98	1.72	-0.70
Ravens	0.94	2.53	-1.60
Steelers	0.90	-0.43	1.30
Panthers	-1.35	-4.66	3.30
Eagles	-2.08	0.73	-2.80
Raiders	-2.24	-5.72	3.50
Falcons	-2.36	-1.39	-1.00
Colts	-2.38	-0.74	-1.60
Browns	-2.40	-2.50	0.10
Chargers	-2.68	1.16	-3.80
Saints	-3.32	-3.38	0.10
Buccaneers	-3.49	-3.95	0.50
Giants	-3.61	-2.38	-1.20
Cowboys	-3.86	-3.42	-0.40
Commanders	-4.09	-4.65	0.60
Jets	-4.75	-9.84	5.10
Dolphins	-6.47	-3.99	-2.50
Cardinals	-7.26	-7.49	0.20
Titans	-8.25	-8.81	0.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Broncos vs. Seahawks	Oct 16	17 – 14	-6.00	FALSE
2	Jaguars vs. Texans	Oct 19	31 – 34	3.80	FALSE
3	Falcons vs. Bears	Oct 19	23 – 31	-2.70	TRUE
4	Browns vs. Ravens	Oct 19	13 – 10	-5.80	FALSE
5	Colts vs. Titans	Oct 19	20 – 26	8.60	FALSE
6	Patriots vs. Jets	Oct 19	26 – 19	14.70	TRUE
7	Giants vs. Saints	Oct 19	27 – 34	2.30	FALSE
8	Eagles vs. Panthers	Oct 19	14 – 25	1.70	FALSE
9	Buccaneers vs. Steelers	Oct 19	19 – 26	-3.40	TRUE
10	Rams vs. Cardinals	Oct 19	16 – 18	12.70	FALSE
11	Chiefs vs. Chargers	Oct 19	22 – 6	3.20	TRUE
12	Raiders vs. Bills	Oct 19	30 – 33	-9.60	TRUE
13	Packers vs. Cowboys	Oct 19	23 – 13	2.80	TRUE
14	49ers vs. Commanders	Oct 20	23 – 17	10.90	TRUE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bears vs. Patriots	Oct 23	Patriots	-5.90
2	Saints vs. Steelers	Oct 26	Steelers	-4.20
3	Falcons vs. 49ers	Oct 26	49ers	-7.80
4	Ravens vs. Bengals	Oct 26	Bengals	-0.40
5	Panthers vs. Buccaneers	Oct 26	Panthers	2.10
6	Texans vs. Giants	Oct 26	Texans	6.70
7	Vikings vs. Colts	Oct 26	Vikings	6.20
8	Jets vs. Dolphins	Oct 26	Jets	1.70
9	Titans vs. Browns	Oct 26	Browns	-5.80
10	Cardinals vs. Broncos	Oct 26	Broncos	-11.50
11	Lions vs. Packers	Oct 26	Lions	1.70
12	Raiders vs. Rams	Oct 26	Rams	-5.00
13	Seahawks vs. Chiefs	Oct 26	Seahawks	4.80
14	Eagles vs. Cowboys	Oct 27	Eagles	1.80

The post NFL Predictions for Week 7 first appeared on Stats Chat.