Stats Chat

NRL Predictions for Round 21

David Scott — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 11:54:43 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	11.57	8.77	2.80
Sharks	9.14	7.25	1.90
Warriors	7.11	-1.18	8.30
Roosters	6.04	9.50	-3.50
Dolphins	4.45	1.85	2.60
Sea Eagles	3.20	0.21	3.00
Storm	0.57	6.96	-6.40
Rabbitohs	0.16	-5.05	5.20
Cowboys	-0.96	-2.69	1.70
Raiders	-1.85	1.62	-3.50
Knights	-2.09	-14.06	12.00
Bulldogs	-3.00	2.13	-5.10
Broncos	-3.23	7.06	-10.30
Titans	-4.74	-8.02	3.30
Eels	-5.94	-0.37	-5.60
Dragons	-9.39	-6.72	-2.70
Wests Tigers	-11.05	-7.26	-3.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Panthers vs. Broncos	Jul 16	12 – 14	22.10	FALSE
2	Sharks vs. Knights	Jul 17	20 – 18	17.50	TRUE
3	Roosters vs. Storm	Jul 17	14 – 6	9.90	TRUE
4	Raiders vs. Rabbitohs	Jul 18	34 – 24	0.50	TRUE
5	Warriors vs. Dragons	Jul 18	20 – 12	22.70	TRUE
6	Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers	Jul 18	32 – 0	8.90	TRUE
7	Titans vs. Sea Eagles	Jul 19	38 – 32	-5.70	FALSE
8	Dolphins vs. Cowboys	Jul 19	36 – 16	7.50	TRUE

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Eels vs. Panthers	Jul 23	Panthers	-17.50
2	Knights vs. Roosters	Jul 24	Roosters	-4.10
3	Rabbitohs vs. Storm	Jul 24	Rabbitohs	3.60
4	Raiders vs. Wests Tigers	Jul 25	Raiders	13.20
5	Bulldogs vs. Warriors	Jul 25	Warriors	-6.10
6	Cowboys vs. Broncos	Jul 25	Cowboys	6.30
7	Dragons vs. Titans	Jul 26	Titans	-0.60
8	Sea Eagles vs. Sharks	Jul 26	Sharks	-1.90

The post NRL Predictions for Round 21 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

David Scott — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 11:53:41 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Lions	13.69	14.61	-0.90
Griquas	8.56	9.78	-1.20
Pumas	4.49	5.36	-0.90
Cheetahs	-1.50	-2.42	0.90
Bulls	-3.01	-2.24	-0.80
Boland Cavaliers	-3.47	-4.25	0.80
Sharks	-3.78	-4.65	0.90
Stormers	-8.78	-10.00	1.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Pumas vs. Sharks	Jul 18	24 – 26	13.00	FALSE
2	Stormers vs. Griquas	Jul 18	25 – 19	-16.80	FALSE
3	Cheetahs vs. Lions	Jul 19	29 – 27	-14.00	FALSE
4	Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls	Jul 20	24 – 10	1.00	TRUE

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Cheetahs vs. Sharks	Jul 25	Cheetahs	5.30
2	Lions vs. Pumas	Jul 26	Lions	12.20
3	Griquas vs. Bulls	Jul 26	Griquas	14.60
4	Boland Cavaliers vs. Stormers	Jul 27	Boland Cavaliers	8.30

The post Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 21

David Scott — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 11:52:43 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Fremantle Dockers	26.06	6.56	19.50
Geelong Cats	22.46	26.75	-4.30
Brisbane Lions	19.08	26.20	-7.10
Hawthorn Hawks	18.29	22.83	-4.50
Adelaide Crows	18.12	15.32	2.80
Sydney Swans	13.93	0.56	13.40
Melbourne Demons	7.61	1.64	6.00
GWS Giants	5.43	9.54	-4.10
Collingwood	5.16	11.76	-6.60
Western Bulldogs	4.77	26.06	-21.30
St Kilda Saints	1.63	-7.63	9.30
Gold Coast Suns	-4.02	10.24	-14.30
Carlton Blues	-6.08	-4.77	-1.30
Port Adelaide Power	-6.17	-14.65	8.50
North Melbourne	-14.40	-21.71	7.30
West Coast Eagles	-29.12	-39.36	10.20
Essendon Bombers	-33.55	-27.89	-5.70
Richmond Tigers	-37.21	-29.44	-7.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 162 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints	Jul 16	102 – 75	32.90	TRUE
2	Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows	Jul 17	71 – 87	10.90	FALSE
3	Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers	Jul 18	75 – 103	-19.70	TRUE
4	North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons	Jul 18	76 – 92	-23.30	TRUE
5	Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues	Jul 18	90 – 69	9.10	TRUE
6	West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions	Jul 18	69 – 93	-39.70	TRUE
7	Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Jul 19	52 – 122	-52.80	TRUE
8	Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs	Jul 19	68 – 77	4.70	FALSE
9	Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants	Jul 19	67 – 64	-33.50	FALSE

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood	Jul 23	Adelaide Crows	24.00
2	Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats	Jul 24	Geelong Cats	-3.80
3	Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles	Jul 24	Fremantle Dockers	55.20
4	Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jul 25	Carlton Blues	8.90
5	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers	Jul 25	Hawthorn Hawks	51.80
6	GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans	Jul 25	GWS Giants	2.50
7	Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers	Jul 25	Western Bulldogs	42.00
8	Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power	Jul 26	Brisbane Lions	36.20
9	North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints	Jul 26	St Kilda Saints	-16.00

The post AFL Predictions for Week 21 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

David Scott — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:14:34 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Lions	14.61	14.61	-0.00
Griquas	9.78	9.78	0.00
Pumas	5.36	5.36	-0.00
Bulls	-2.24	-2.24	-0.00
Cheetahs	-2.42	-2.42	0.00
Boland Cavaliers	-4.25	-4.25	-0.00
Sharks	-4.65	-4.65	0.00
Stormers	-10.00	-10.00	0.00

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Pumas vs. Sharks	Jul 18	Pumas	13.00
2	Stormers vs. Griquas	Jul 18	Griquas	-16.80
3	Cheetahs vs. Lions	Jul 19	Lions	-14.00
4	Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls	Jul 20	Boland Cavaliers	1.00

The post Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Round 20

David Scott — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 04:58:07 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	13.21	8.77	4.40
Sharks	10.27	7.25	3.00
Warriors	8.19	-1.18	9.40
Roosters	6.25	9.50	-3.30
Sea Eagles	4.09	0.21	3.90
Dolphins	3.51	1.85	1.70
Rabbitohs	0.90	-5.05	6.00
Storm	0.37	6.96	-6.60
Cowboys	-0.02	-2.69	2.70
Raiders	-2.59	1.62	-4.20
Knights	-3.22	-14.06	10.80
Bulldogs	-4.59	2.13	-6.70
Broncos	-4.88	7.06	-11.90
Titans	-5.63	-8.02	2.40
Eels	-5.94	-0.37	-5.60
Wests Tigers	-9.46	-7.26	-2.20
Dragons	-10.46	-6.72	-3.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Wests Tigers vs. Warriors	Jul 10	6 – 32	-11.50	TRUE
2	Dolphins vs. Sharks	Jul 11	0 – 66	5.50	FALSE
3	Bulldogs vs. Raiders	Jul 11	16 – 40	6.00	FALSE
4	Roosters vs. Eels	Jul 11	28 – 12	16.20	TRUE
5	Rabbitohs vs. Knights	Jul 12	26 – 24	9.90	TRUE
6	Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys	Jul 12	18 – 19	9.80	FALSE
7	Storm vs. Titans	Jul 12	22 – 18	11.70	TRUE

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Panthers vs. Broncos	Jul 16	Panthers	22.10
2	Sharks vs. Knights	Jul 17	Sharks	17.50
3	Roosters vs. Storm	Jul 17	Roosters	9.90
4	Raiders vs. Rabbitohs	Jul 18	Raiders	0.50
5	Warriors vs. Dragons	Jul 18	Warriors	22.70
6	Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers	Jul 18	Bulldogs	8.90
7	Titans vs. Sea Eagles	Jul 19	Sea Eagles	-5.70
8	Dolphins vs. Cowboys	Jul 19	Dolphins	7.50

The post NRL Predictions for Round 20 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 20

David Scott — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 04:57:05 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Fremantle Dockers	25.32	6.56	18.80
Geelong Cats	22.98	26.75	-3.80
Brisbane Lions	20.31	26.20	-5.90
Hawthorn Hawks	16.95	22.83	-5.90
Adelaide Crows	16.07	15.32	0.80
Sydney Swans	15.99	0.56	15.40
Melbourne Demons	8.27	1.64	6.60
GWS Giants	8.17	9.54	-1.40
Collingwood	4.09	11.76	-7.70
Western Bulldogs	3.54	26.06	-22.50
St Kilda Saints	1.11	-7.63	8.70
Gold Coast Suns	-2.79	10.24	-13.00
Carlton Blues	-5.01	-4.77	-0.20
Port Adelaide Power	-5.43	-14.65	9.20
North Melbourne	-15.06	-21.71	6.70
West Coast Eagles	-30.35	-39.36	9.00
Richmond Tigers	-35.87	-29.44	-6.40
Essendon Bombers	-36.29	-27.89	-8.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans	Jul 09	111 – 73	17.10	TRUE
2	Collingwood vs. North Melbourne	Jul 10	89 – 85	21.90	TRUE
3	St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power	Jul 11	87 – 73	18.30	TRUE
4	GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats	Jul 11	86 – 73	-6.90	FALSE
5	Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Jul 11	39 – 103	-14.60	TRUE
6	Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jul 11	128 – 49	21.40	TRUE
7	Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles	Jul 12	86 – 70	50.00	TRUE
8	Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers	Jul 12	111 – 65	43.70	TRUE
9	Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers	Jul 12	149 – 59	63.60	TRUE

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints	Jul 16	Geelong Cats	32.90
2	Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows	Jul 17	Sydney Swans	10.90
3	Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers	Jul 18	Fremantle Dockers	-19.70
4	North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons	Jul 18	Melbourne Demons	-23.30
5	Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues	Jul 18	Collingwood	9.10
6	West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions	Jul 18	Brisbane Lions	-39.70
7	Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Jul 19	Hawthorn Hawks	-52.80
8	Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs	Jul 19	Gold Coast Suns	4.70
9	Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants	Jul 19	GWS Giants	-33.50

The post AFL Predictions for Week 20 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Round 19

David Scott — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 03:12:10 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	13.21	8.77	4.40
Dolphins	7.66	1.85	5.80
Warriors	7.12	-1.18	8.30
Roosters	6.27	9.50	-3.20
Sharks	6.13	7.25	-1.10
Sea Eagles	4.92	0.21	4.70
Rabbitohs	1.77	-5.05	6.80
Storm	1.21	6.96	-5.70
Cowboys	-0.85	-2.69	1.80
Bulldogs	-2.61	2.13	-4.70
Knights	-4.09	-14.06	10.00
Raiders	-4.57	1.62	-6.20
Broncos	-4.88	7.06	-11.90
Eels	-5.97	-0.37	-5.60
Titans	-6.47	-8.02	1.50
Wests Tigers	-8.39	-7.26	-1.10
Dragons	-10.46	-6.72	-3.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Panthers vs. Rabbitohs	Jul 03	36 – 14	13.60	TRUE
2	Dragons vs. Wests Tigers	Jul 04	24 – 10	-0.20	FALSE
3	Broncos vs. Sharks	Jul 04	16 – 28	-5.60	TRUE
4	Eels vs. Sea Eagles	Jul 05	23 – 14	-9.50	FALSE
5	Knights vs. Dolphins	Jul 05	13 – 12	-9.40	FALSE

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Wests Tigers vs. Warriors	Jul 10	Warriors	-11.50
2	Dolphins vs. Sharks	Jul 11	Dolphins	5.50
3	Bulldogs vs. Raiders	Jul 11	Bulldogs	6.00
4	Roosters vs. Eels	Jul 11	Roosters	16.20
5	Rabbitohs vs. Knights	Jul 12	Rabbitohs	9.90
6	Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys	Jul 12	Sea Eagles	9.80
7	Storm vs. Titans	Jul 12	Storm	11.70

The post NRL Predictions for Round 19 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 19

David Scott — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 03:08:40 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	24.53	26.75	-2.20
Fremantle Dockers	23.70	6.56	17.10
Brisbane Lions	18.29	26.20	-7.90
Sydney Swans	17.60	0.56	17.00
Hawthorn Hawks	13.29	22.83	-9.50
Adelaide Crows	11.83	15.32	-3.50
Melbourne Demons	8.06	1.64	6.40
GWS Giants	6.63	9.54	-2.90
Western Bulldogs	6.11	26.06	-19.90
Collingwood	5.49	11.76	-6.30
St Kilda Saints	1.49	-7.63	9.10
Gold Coast Suns	1.44	10.24	-8.80
Carlton Blues	-1.35	-4.77	3.40
Port Adelaide Power	-5.82	-14.65	8.80
North Melbourne	-16.45	-21.71	5.30
West Coast Eagles	-32.92	-39.36	6.40
Essendon Bombers	-34.27	-27.89	-6.40
Richmond Tigers	-35.66	-29.44	-6.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions	Jul 02	101 – 123	24.10	FALSE
2	Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs	Jul 03	90 – 55	20.20	TRUE
3	West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows	Jul 03	74 – 99	-35.70	TRUE
4	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons	Jul 04	90 – 125	25.00	FALSE
5	GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers	Jul 04	109 – 88	-10.90	FALSE
6	Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood	Jul 04	98 – 104	9.40	FALSE
7	Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues	Jul 04	72 – 74	-40.00	TRUE
8	Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints	Jul 05	50 – 117	-30.20	TRUE
9	Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne	Jul 05	73 – 52	21.80	TRUE

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans	Jul 09	Fremantle Dockers	17.10
2	Collingwood vs. North Melbourne	Jul 10	Collingwood	21.90
3	St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power	Jul 11	St Kilda Saints	18.30
4	GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats	Jul 11	Geelong Cats	-6.90
5	Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Jul 11	Hawthorn Hawks	-14.60
6	Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jul 11	Adelaide Crows	21.40
7	Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles	Jul 12	Western Bulldogs	50.00
8	Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers	Jul 12	Melbourne Demons	43.70
9	Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers	Jul 12	Brisbane Lions	63.60

The post AFL Predictions for Week 19 first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Round 18

David Scott — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 22:51:59 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	12.29	8.77	3.50
Dolphins	8.46	1.85	6.60
Warriors	7.12	-1.18	8.30
Roosters	6.27	9.50	-3.20
Sea Eagles	6.23	0.21	6.00
Sharks	5.42	7.25	-1.80
Rabbitohs	2.69	-5.05	7.70
Storm	1.21	6.96	-5.70
Cowboys	-0.85	-2.69	1.80
Bulldogs	-2.61	2.13	-4.70
Broncos	-4.17	7.06	-11.20
Raiders	-4.57	1.62	-6.20
Knights	-4.89	-14.06	9.20
Titans	-6.47	-8.02	1.50
Eels	-7.28	-0.37	-6.90
Wests Tigers	-7.34	-7.26	-0.10
Dragons	-11.51	-6.72	-4.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Eels vs. Rabbitohs	Jun 25	12 – 32	-3.60	TRUE
2	Titans vs. Bulldogs	Jun 26	12 – 30	3.10	FALSE
3	Broncos vs. Roosters	Jun 26	18 – 24	-6.60	TRUE
4	Dolphins vs. Warriors	Jun 27	26 – 24	6.30	TRUE
5	Cowboys vs. Panthers	Jun 27	26 – 12	-12.70	FALSE
6	Sea Eagles vs. Storm	Jun 27	30 – 4	6.20	TRUE
7	Raiders vs. Dragons	Jun 28	24 – 16	11.80	TRUE
8	Knights vs. Wests Tigers	Jun 28	12 – 6	6.60	TRUE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Panthers vs. Rabbitohs	Jul 03	Panthers	13.60
2	Dragons vs. Wests Tigers	Jul 04	Wests Tigers	-0.20
3	Broncos vs. Sharks	Jul 04	Sharks	-5.60
4	Eels vs. Sea Eagles	Jul 05	Sea Eagles	-9.50
5	Knights vs. Dolphins	Jul 05	Dolphins	-9.40

The post NRL Predictions for Round 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 18

David Scott — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 22:50:51 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	27.95	26.75	1.20
Fremantle Dockers	26.12	6.56	19.60
Hawthorn Hawks	17.70	22.83	-5.10
Sydney Swans	16.44	0.56	15.90
Brisbane Lions	14.86	26.20	-11.30
Adelaide Crows	12.79	15.32	-2.50
Western Bulldogs	7.28	26.06	-18.80
Collingwood	4.28	11.76	-7.50
GWS Giants	4.22	9.54	-5.30
Melbourne Demons	3.66	1.64	2.00
Gold Coast Suns	2.65	10.24	-7.60
Carlton Blues	1.50	-4.77	6.30
St Kilda Saints	-1.27	-7.63	6.40
Port Adelaide Power	-5.75	-14.65	8.90
North Melbourne	-17.89	-21.71	3.80
Essendon Bombers	-30.14	-27.89	-2.20
West Coast Eagles	-33.88	-39.36	5.50
Richmond Tigers	-38.51	-29.44	-9.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans	Jun 25	126 – 83	3.50	TRUE
2	Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants	Jun 26	96 – 82	26.80	TRUE
3	Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles	Jun 27	117 – 64	44.90	TRUE
4	Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers	Jun 27	106 – 72	44.70	TRUE
5	Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows	Jun 27	97 – 71	-26.30	FALSE
6	North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers	Jun 28	79 – 65	11.90	TRUE
7	Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jun 28	80 – 29	31.40	TRUE

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions	Jul 02	Geelong Cats	24.10
2	Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs	Jul 03	Sydney Swans	20.20
3	West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows	Jul 03	Adelaide Crows	-35.70
4	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons	Jul 04	Hawthorn Hawks	25.00
5	GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers	Jul 04	Fremantle Dockers	-10.90
6	Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood	Jul 04	Gold Coast Suns	9.40
7	Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues	Jul 04	Carlton Blues	-35.00
8	Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints	Jul 05	St Kilda Saints	-23.90
9	Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne	Jul 05	Port Adelaide Power	23.10

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