https://www.statschat.org.nz "Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." - H.G. Wells Mon, 18 May 2026 22:35:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 23706015 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-the-quarter-finals-4/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-the-quarter-finals-4/#respond Mon, 18 May 2026 22:35:39 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21262 Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 10.37 13.41 -3.00 Bulls 9.88 8.86 1.00 Glasgow 6.52 6.18 0.30 […]

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	10.37	13.41	-3.00
Bulls	9.88	8.86	1.00
Glasgow	6.52	6.18	0.30
Stormers	6.17	4.17	2.00
Lions	3.11	-1.19	4.30
Connacht	2.88	-1.39	4.30
Munster	2.55	3.65	-1.10
Sharks	2.15	1.29	0.90
Ulster	-0.38	-3.24	2.90
Cardiff Rugby	-1.74	-2.74	1.00
Edinburgh	-3.43	2.67	-6.10
Scarlets	-3.61	-0.54	-3.10
Ospreys	-3.70	-2.15	-1.60
Benetton	-6.97	-2.32	-4.70
Dragons	-9.62	-15.66	6.00
Zebre	-14.18	-11.02	-3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers	May 16	22 – 16	-1.90	FALSE
2	Edinburgh vs. Connacht	May 16	5 – 26	3.10	FALSE
3	Ulster vs. Glasgow	May 16	22 – 26	1.30	FALSE
4	Sharks vs. Zebre	May 16	54 – 19	21.80	TRUE
5	Bulls vs. Benetton	May 17	45 – 19	23.20	TRUE
6	Leinster vs. Ospreys	May 17	68 – 14	17.80	TRUE
7	Scarlets vs. Dragons	May 17	35 – 35	9.20	FALSE
8	Munster vs. Lions	May 17	24 – 17	6.30	TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Glasgow vs. Connacht	May 30	Glasgow	10.60
2	Bulls vs. Munster	May 30	Bulls	14.30
3	Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby	May 31	Stormers	14.90
4	Leinster vs. Lions	May 31	Leinster	14.30

 

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-the-quarter-finals-4/feed/ 0 21262 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/top-14-predictions-for-round-25-6/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/top-14-predictions-for-round-25-6/#respond Mon, 18 May 2026 22:32:26 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21260 Team Ratings for Round 25 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 13.45 11.56 1.90 Montpellier 5.96 -0.21 6.20 Stade Rochelais 4.99 1.22 […]

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 25 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	13.45	11.56	1.90
Montpellier	5.96	-0.21	6.20
Stade Rochelais	4.99	1.22	3.80
Stade Francais	4.84	-2.17	7.00
Bordeaux Begles	4.67	4.78	-0.10
Section Paloise	4.28	2.21	2.10
Clermont	4.18	1.88	2.30
Racing 92	2.72	1.88	0.80
Toulon	-0.53	3.49	-4.00
Lyon	-1.01	-0.45	-0.60
Castres Olympique	-1.21	0.59	-1.80
Bayonne	-2.81	1.48	-4.30
USA Perpignan	-4.72	-3.37	-1.30
Montauban	-21.94	-10.00	-11.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan	May 17	37 – 32	16.80	TRUE
2	Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier	May 17	33 – 36	-0.40	TRUE
3	Lyon vs. Bayonne	May 17	42 – 35	8.50	TRUE
4	Montauban vs. Stade Francais	May 17	25 – 73	-18.50	TRUE
5	Racing 92 vs. Toulon	May 17	43 – 28	9.00	TRUE
6	Section Paloise vs. Clermont	May 17	24 – 19	6.80	TRUE
7	Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain	May 17	38 – 10	-3.90	FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais	May 31	Stade Rochelais	-20.40
2	Montpellier vs. Section Paloise	May 31	Montpellier	8.20
3	Stade Francais vs. Bayonne	May 31	Stade Francais	14.10
4	Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon	May 31	Stade Toulousain	21.00
5	USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique	May 31	USA Perpignan	3.00
6	Clermont vs. Racing 92	Jun 01	Clermont	8.00
7	Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles	Jun 01	Toulon	1.30

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 25 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/top-14-predictions-for-round-25-6/feed/ 0 21260 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/super-rugby-predictions-for-week-15-6/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/super-rugby-predictions-for-week-15-6/#respond Mon, 18 May 2026 22:30:20 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21258 Team Ratings for Week 15 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hurricanes 13.94 8.29 5.60 Chiefs 12.66 12.36 0.30 Crusaders 8.22 8.41 -0.20 Blues […]

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Hurricanes	13.94	8.29	5.60
Chiefs	12.66	12.36	0.30
Crusaders	8.22	8.41	-0.20
Blues	7.43	8.91	-1.50
Brumbies	3.91	5.59	-1.70
Reds	0.72	1.74	-1.00
Highlanders	-3.43	-3.06	-0.40
Western Force	-3.66	-6.29	2.60
Waratahs	-4.34	-5.84	1.50
Fijian Drua	-7.85	-7.64	-0.20
Moana Pasifika	-13.01	-7.88	-5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Chiefs vs. Highlanders	May 15	42 – 12	20.20	TRUE
2	Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs	May 16	35 – 50	2.90	FALSE
3	Blues vs. Hurricanes	May 16	24 – 47	0.20	FALSE
4	Western Force vs. Reds	May 16	19 – 14	0.10	TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Crusaders vs. Chiefs	May 22	Crusaders	0.60
2	Waratahs vs. Brumbies	May 22	Brumbies	-3.30
3	Moana Pasifika vs. Reds	May 23	Reds	-10.20
4	Hurricanes vs. Highlanders	May 23	Hurricanes	22.40
5	Western Force vs. Fijian Drua	May 23	Western Force	9.20

 

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/super-rugby-predictions-for-week-15-6/feed/ 0 21258 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-17-8/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-17-8/#respond Mon, 18 May 2026 22:28:21 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21256 Team Ratings for Round 17 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 12.04 10.30 1.70 Leicester Tigers 11.97 5.55 6.40 Saracens 10.00 5.03 5.00 […]

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bath	12.04	10.30	1.70
Leicester Tigers	11.97	5.55	6.40
Saracens	10.00	5.03	5.00
Northampton Saints	9.34	-1.47	10.80
Exeter Chiefs	3.35	-4.58	7.90
Bristol	0.62	3.66	-3.00
Sale Sharks	-1.92	6.70	-8.60
Gloucester	-4.89	4.13	-9.00
Harlequins	-5.42	-3.02	-2.40
Newcastle Red Bulls	-27.23	-18.45	-8.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Northampton Saints vs. Bristol	May 16	94 – 33	8.70	TRUE
2	Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	May 17	69 – 12	44.30	TRUE
3	Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs	May 17	41 – 24	-5.00	FALSE
4	Saracens vs. Gloucester	May 17	30 – 14	23.00	TRUE
5	Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers	May 18	33 – 47	-5.50	TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bristol vs. Bath	May 30	Bath	-4.40
2	Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks	May 31	Sale Sharks	-18.30
3	Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester	May 31	Northampton Saints	21.20
4	Saracens vs. Harlequins	May 31	Saracens	22.40
5	Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs	Jun 01	Leicester Tigers	15.60

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-17-8/feed/ 0 21256 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/nrl-predictions-for-round-12-12/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/nrl-predictions-for-round-12-12/#respond Mon, 18 May 2026 22:26:12 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21253 Team Ratings for Round 12 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 13.27 8.77 4.50 Roosters 6.98 9.50 -2.50 Sea Eagles 6.56 0.21 6.30 […]

The post NRL Predictions for Round 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	13.27	8.77	4.50
Roosters	6.98	9.50	-2.50
Sea Eagles	6.56	0.21	6.30
Warriors	5.80	-1.18	7.00
Sharks	5.76	7.25	-1.50
Dolphins	4.05	1.85	2.20
Storm	2.17	6.96	-4.80
Broncos	0.83	7.06	-6.20
Rabbitohs	0.60	-5.05	5.70
Cowboys	-0.30	-2.69	2.40
Raiders	-1.60	1.62	-3.20
Knights	-4.69	-14.06	9.40
Bulldogs	-5.05	2.13	-7.20
Wests Tigers	-5.35	-7.26	1.90
Eels	-6.88	-0.37	-6.50
Titans	-7.94	-8.02	0.10
Dragons	-14.22	-6.72	-7.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Sharks vs. Bulldogs	May 15	38 – 16	8.80	TRUE
2	Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins	May 15	10 – 32	-5.00	TRUE
3	Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles	May 16	18 – 46	-9.20	TRUE
4	Roosters vs. Cowboys	May 16	12 – 18	9.50	FALSE
5	Eels vs. Storm	May 16	8 – 34	-6.30	TRUE
6	Titans vs. Knights	May 17	12 – 36	0.00	FALSE
7	Warriors vs. Broncos	May 17	42 – 12	-3.40	FALSE
8	Panthers vs. Dragons	May 17	28 – 6	29.00	TRUE

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Raiders vs. Dolphins	May 21	Dolphins	-1.70
2	Bulldogs vs. Storm	May 22	Storm	-3.20
3	Dragons vs. Warriors	May 23	Warriors	-16.00
4	Sea Eagles vs. Titans	May 23	Sea Eagles	18.50
5	Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs	May 24	Cowboys	3.10

The post NRL Predictions for Round 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/nrl-predictions-for-round-12-12/feed/ 0 21253 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/afl-predictions-for-week-12-3/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/afl-predictions-for-week-12-3/#respond Mon, 18 May 2026 22:23:34 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21252 Team Ratings for Week 12 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 28.48 26.75 1.70 Sydney Swans 20.78 0.56 20.20 Brisbane Lions 19.79 […]

The post AFL Predictions for Week 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	28.48	26.75	1.70
Sydney Swans	20.78	0.56	20.20
Brisbane Lions	19.79	26.20	-6.40
Hawthorn Hawks	15.89	22.83	-6.90
Fremantle Dockers	15.62	6.56	9.10
Adelaide Crows	11.54	15.32	-3.80
Gold Coast Suns	10.65	10.24	0.40
Collingwood	10.22	11.76	-1.50
Western Bulldogs	9.85	26.06	-16.20
Melbourne Demons	3.97	1.64	2.30
St Kilda Saints	0.91	-7.63	8.50
GWS Giants	-3.61	9.54	-13.20
Carlton Blues	-5.61	-4.77	-0.80
Port Adelaide Power	-6.99	-14.65	7.70
North Melbourne	-13.75	-21.71	8.00
Essendon Bombers	-26.37	-27.89	1.50
Richmond Tigers	-39.51	-29.44	-10.10
West Coast Eagles	-39.85	-39.36	-0.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats	May 14	76 – 117	9.80	FALSE
2	Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood	May 15	81 – 75	24.40	TRUE
3	Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power	May 15	98 – 73	16.00	TRUE
4	Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne	May 16	133 – 65	30.70	TRUE
5	Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks	May 16	120 – 81	-20.70	FALSE
6	Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs	May 16	74 – 62	-20.40	FALSE
7	Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers	May 17	61 – 104	-28.70	TRUE
8	St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers	May 17	109 – 73	41.40	TRUE
9	West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants	May 17	88 – 71	-32.60	FALSE

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows	May 21	Hawthorn Hawks	15.30
2	Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers	May 22	Essendon Bombers	-13.10
3	Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints	May 22	Fremantle Dockers	25.70
4	North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns	May 23	Gold Coast Suns	-13.40
5	Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans	May 23	Geelong Cats	18.70
6	Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles	May 23	Collingwood	61.10
7	Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues	May 23	Port Adelaide Power	9.60
8	GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions	May 24	Brisbane Lions	-12.40
9	Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons	May 24	Western Bulldogs	5.90

The post AFL Predictions for Week 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/19/afl-predictions-for-week-12-3/feed/ 0 21252 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-16-8/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-16-8/#respond Tue, 12 May 2026 10:00:04 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21250 Team Ratings for Round 16 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leicester Tigers 11.29 5.55 5.70 Bath 11.06 10.30 0.80 Saracens 10.58 5.03 5.50 […]

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leicester Tigers	11.29	5.55	5.70
Bath	11.06	10.30	0.80
Saracens	10.58	5.03	5.50
Northampton Saints	5.82	-1.47	7.30
Exeter Chiefs	4.97	-4.58	9.60
Bristol	4.15	3.66	0.50
Sale Sharks	-1.24	6.70	-7.90
Gloucester	-5.47	4.13	-9.60
Harlequins	-7.04	-3.02	-4.00
Newcastle Red Bulls	-26.25	-18.45	-7.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks	May 09	21 – 15	2.00	TRUE
2	Bristol vs. Saracens	May 10	26 – 41	3.30	FALSE
3	Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints	May 10	41 – 17	10.40	TRUE
4	Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath	May 11	35 – 12	-2.80	FALSE
5	Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Harlequins	May 11	17 – 76	-5.00	TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Northampton Saints vs. Bristol	May 16	Northampton Saints	8.70
2	Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	May 17	Bath	44.30
3	Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs	May 17	Exeter Chiefs	-5.00
4	Saracens vs. Gloucester	May 17	Saracens	23.00
5	Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers	May 18	Leicester Tigers	-5.50

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-16-8/feed/ 0 21250 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-18-5/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-18-5/#respond Tue, 12 May 2026 09:57:08 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21247 Team Ratings for Week 18 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bulls 9.57 8.86 0.70 Leinster 8.75 13.41 -4.70 Stormers 6.69 4.17 2.50 Glasgow […]

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bulls	9.57	8.86	0.70
Leinster	8.75	13.41	-4.70
Stormers	6.69	4.17	2.50
Glasgow	5.94	6.18	-0.20
Lions	3.18	-1.19	4.40
Munster	2.48	3.65	-1.20
Connacht	1.68	-1.39	3.10
Sharks	1.39	1.29	0.10
Ulster	0.20	-3.24	3.40
Ospreys	-2.08	-2.15	0.10
Edinburgh	-2.24	2.67	-4.90
Cardiff Rugby	-2.26	-2.74	0.50
Scarlets	-3.03	-0.54	-2.50
Benetton	-6.66	-2.32	-4.30
Dragons	-10.20	-15.66	5.50
Zebre	-13.41	-11.02	-2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby	May 09	40 – 17	14.10	TRUE
2	Ulster vs. Stormers	May 09	38 – 38	0.70	FALSE
3	Bulls vs. Zebre	May 09	54 – 19	28.60	TRUE
4	Sharks vs. Benetton	May 10	46 – 7	12.50	TRUE
5	Leinster vs. Lions	May 10	31 – 7	11.10	TRUE
6	Ospreys vs. Scarlets	May 10	27 – 20	1.80	TRUE
7	Connacht vs. Munster	May 10	26 – 7	-0.90	FALSE
8	Dragons vs. Edinburgh	May 10	15 – 24	0.20	FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers	May 16	Stormers	-1.90
2	Edinburgh vs. Connacht	May 16	Edinburgh	3.10
3	Ulster vs. Glasgow	May 16	Ulster	1.30
4	Sharks vs. Zebre	May 16	Sharks	21.80
5	Bulls vs. Benetton	May 17	Bulls	23.20
6	Leinster vs. Ospreys	May 17	Leinster	17.80
7	Scarlets vs. Dragons	May 17	Scarlets	9.20
8	Munster vs. Lions	May 17	Munster	6.30

 

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-18-5/feed/ 0 21247 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/top-14-predictions-for-round-24-6/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/top-14-predictions-for-round-24-6/#respond Tue, 12 May 2026 09:55:46 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21245 Team Ratings for Round 24 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 14.41 11.56 2.80 Montpellier 5.80 -0.21 6.00 Bordeaux Begles 5.11 4.78 […]

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 24 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	14.41	11.56	2.80
Montpellier	5.80	-0.21	6.00
Bordeaux Begles	5.11	4.78	0.30
Section Paloise	4.39	2.21	2.20
Clermont	4.07	1.88	2.20
Stade Rochelais	4.03	1.22	2.80
Stade Francais	3.94	-2.17	6.10
Racing 92	2.37	1.88	0.50
Toulon	-0.17	3.49	-3.70
Lyon	-0.92	-0.45	-0.50
Castres Olympique	-1.06	0.59	-1.70
Bayonne	-2.89	1.48	-4.40
USA Perpignan	-5.15	-3.37	-1.80
Montauban	-21.04	-10.00	-11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 161 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles	May 10	38 – 40	-1.40	TRUE
2	Clermont vs. USA Perpignan	May 10	45 – 14	14.60	TRUE
3	Montpellier vs. Montauban	May 10	59 – 7	32.00	TRUE
4	Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique	May 10	27 – 15	11.90	TRUE
5	Stade Francais vs. Lyon	May 10	59 – 17	9.40	TRUE
6	Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain	May 10	27 – 51	-6.90	TRUE
7	Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais	May 11	24 – 26	5.80	FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan	May 17	Bordeaux Begles	16.80
2	Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier	May 17	Montpellier	-0.40
3	Lyon vs. Bayonne	May 17	Lyon	8.50
4	Montauban vs. Stade Francais	May 17	Stade Francais	-18.50
5	Racing 92 vs. Toulon	May 17	Racing 92	9.00
6	Section Paloise vs. Clermont	May 17	Section Paloise	6.80
7	Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain	May 17	Stade Toulousain	-3.90

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 24 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/top-14-predictions-for-round-24-6/feed/ 0 21245 https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/super-rugby-predictions-for-week-14-6/ https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/super-rugby-predictions-for-week-14-6/#respond Tue, 12 May 2026 09:54:50 +0000 https://www.statschat.org.nz/?p=21243 Team Ratings for Week 14 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hurricanes 13.07 8.29 4.80 Chiefs 12.22 12.36 -0.10 Blues 8.30 8.91 -0.60 Crusaders […]

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Hurricanes	13.07	8.29	4.80
Chiefs	12.22	12.36	-0.10
Blues	8.30	8.91	-0.60
Crusaders	8.22	8.41	-0.20
Brumbies	3.91	5.59	-1.70
Reds	0.97	1.74	-0.80
Highlanders	-2.99	-3.06	0.10
Western Force	-3.91	-6.29	2.40
Waratahs	-5.04	-5.84	0.80
Fijian Drua	-7.15	-7.64	0.50
Moana Pasifika	-13.01	-7.88	-5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Crusaders vs. Blues	May 08	36 – 20	3.90	TRUE
2	Reds vs. Chiefs	May 08	21 – 31	-7.40	TRUE
3	Highlanders vs. Waratahs	May 09	31 – 26	5.60	TRUE
4	Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes	May 09	17 – 50	-20.00	TRUE
5	Brumbies vs. Western Force	May 09	32 – 15	12.30	TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Chiefs vs. Highlanders	May 15	Chiefs	20.20
2	Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs	May 16	Fijian Drua	2.90
3	Blues vs. Hurricanes	May 16	Blues	0.20
4	Western Force vs. Reds	May 16	Western Force	0.10

 

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14 first appeared on Stats Chat.]]> https://www.statschat.org.nz/2026/05/12/super-rugby-predictions-for-week-14-6/feed/ 0 21243