Stats Chat

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:43:10 +0000

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	11.59	13.41	-1.80
Bulls	11.21	8.86	2.30
Stormers	7.05	4.17	2.90
Glasgow	6.24	6.18	0.10
Connacht	2.73	-1.39	4.10
Sharks	2.15	1.29	0.90
Munster	1.65	3.65	-2.00
Lions	1.53	-1.19	2.70
Ulster	-0.38	-3.24	2.90
Cardiff Rugby	-2.27	-2.74	0.50
Edinburgh	-3.43	2.67	-6.10
Scarlets	-3.61	-0.54	-3.10
Ospreys	-3.70	-2.15	-1.60
Benetton	-6.97	-2.32	-4.70
Dragons	-9.62	-15.66	6.00
Zebre	-14.18	-11.02	-3.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Glasgow vs. Bulls	Jun 07	21 – 22	2.90	FALSE
2	Leinster vs. Stormers	Jun 07	20 – 11	12.20	TRUE

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Leinster vs. Bulls	Jun 20	Leinster	7.40

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:42:18 +0000

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.50	11.56	0.90
Montpellier	6.13	-0.21	6.30
Stade Rochelais	5.89	1.22	4.70
Stade Francais	5.16	-2.17	7.30
Section Paloise	4.42	2.21	2.20
Racing 92	4.27	1.88	2.40
Bordeaux Begles	4.05	4.78	-0.70
Clermont	3.53	1.88	1.60
Lyon	-0.72	-0.45	-0.30
Toulon	-0.73	3.49	-4.20
Castres Olympique	-0.74	0.59	-1.30
Bayonne	-1.91	1.48	-3.40
USA Perpignan	-5.85	-3.37	-2.50
Montauban	-23.12	-10.00	-13.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan	Jun 07	52 – 7	8.30	TRUE
2	Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont	Jun 07	31 – 34	7.80	FALSE
3	Castres Olympique vs. Toulon	Jun 07	38 – 21	5.70	TRUE
4	Lyon vs. Montpellier	Jun 07	25 – 28	0.00	FALSE
5	Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain	Jun 07	31 – 20	-2.70	FALSE
6	Section Paloise vs. Montauban	Jun 07	71 – 35	33.80	TRUE
7	Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais	Jun 07	27 – 22	7.50	TRUE

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Section Paloise vs. Racing 92	Jun 14	Section Paloise	6.70
2	Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais	Jun 15	Stade Francais	5.80

The post Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:41:20 +0000

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Hurricanes	13.88	8.29	5.60
Chiefs	13.38	12.36	1.00
Crusaders	10.11	8.41	1.70
Blues	6.27	8.91	-2.60
Brumbies	1.90	5.59	-3.70
Reds	0.41	1.74	-1.30
Highlanders	-3.16	-3.06	-0.10
Western Force	-3.89	-6.29	2.40
Waratahs	-4.57	-5.84	1.30
Fijian Drua	-7.96	-7.64	-0.30
Moana Pasifika	-11.80	-7.88	-3.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Hurricanes vs. Brumbies	Jun 05	66 – 12	12.70	TRUE
2	Crusaders vs. Blues	Jun 06	52 – 31	7.70	TRUE
3	Chiefs vs. Reds	Jun 06	46 – 24	15.90	TRUE

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Chiefs vs. Crusaders	Jun 12	Chiefs	8.30
2	Hurricanes vs. Blues	Jun 13	Hurricanes	12.60

The post Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:40:38 +0000

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leicester Tigers	10.81	5.55	5.30
Bath	10.78	10.30	0.50
Saracens	8.02	5.03	3.00
Northampton Saints	7.05	-1.47	8.50
Exeter Chiefs	6.43	-4.58	11.00
Bristol	-0.13	3.66	-3.80
Sale Sharks	-2.09	6.70	-8.80
Gloucester	-3.20	4.13	-7.30
Harlequins	-3.75	-3.02	-0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls	-26.06	-18.45	-7.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bath vs. Leicester Tigers	Jun 07	24 – 22	8.20	TRUE
2	Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens	Jun 07	32 – 12	2.80	TRUE
3	Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Jun 07	54 – 21	29.10	TRUE
4	Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints	Jun 07	38 – 31	-5.80	FALSE
5	Sale Sharks vs. Bristol	Jun 07	38 – 17	2.20	TRUE

Predictions for the Semi-finals

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers	Jun 13	Northampton Saints	3.20
2	Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs	Jun 14	Bath	11.30

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

NRL Predictions for Round 15

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:39:29 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Panthers	15.41	8.77	6.60
Roosters	7.40	9.50	-2.10
Warriors	6.75	-1.18	7.90
Dolphins	6.45	1.85	4.60
Sharks	5.85	7.25	-1.40
Sea Eagles	5.68	0.21	5.50
Storm	1.61	6.96	-5.30
Rabbitohs	-0.86	-5.05	4.20
Broncos	-1.87	7.06	-8.90
Cowboys	-1.98	-2.69	0.70
Raiders	-2.90	1.62	-4.50
Knights	-4.00	-14.06	10.10
Bulldogs	-4.91	2.13	-7.00
Titans	-5.65	-8.02	2.40
Eels	-6.37	-0.37	-6.00
Wests Tigers	-7.86	-7.26	-0.60
Dragons	-12.76	-6.72	-6.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs	Jun 04	28 – 14	9.60	TRUE
2	Storm vs. Knights	Jun 05	32 – 30	11.00	TRUE
3	Raiders vs. Roosters	Jun 05	0 – 26	-3.20	TRUE
4	Cowboys vs. Dolphins	Jun 06	14 – 40	-1.00	TRUE
5	Broncos vs. Titans	Jun 06	23 – 28	10.00	FALSE
6	Wests Tigers vs. Panthers	Jun 07	0 – 68	-21.50	TRUE
7	Sharks vs. Dragons	Jun 07	34 – 12	22.80	TRUE
8	Bulldogs vs. Eels	Jun 08	14 – 12	6.40	TRUE

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Rabbitohs vs. Broncos	Jun 11	Rabbitohs	5.00
2	Dolphins vs. Roosters	Jun 12	Dolphins	3.00
3	Warriors vs. Sharks	Jun 13	Warriors	4.90
4	Eels vs. Raiders	Jun 13	Eels	0.50
5	Wests Tigers vs. Titans	Jun 14	Wests Tigers	1.80

The post NRL Predictions for Round 15 first appeared on Stats Chat.

AFL Predictions for Week 15

David Scott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:38:26 +0000

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Geelong Cats	26.87	26.75	0.10
Fremantle Dockers	24.45	6.56	17.90
Sydney Swans	20.77	0.56	20.20
Hawthorn Hawks	17.69	22.83	-5.10
Brisbane Lions	13.37	26.20	-12.80
Adelaide Crows	12.58	15.32	-2.70
Western Bulldogs	10.87	26.06	-15.20
GWS Giants	6.61	9.54	-2.90
Gold Coast Suns	6.55	10.24	-3.70
Collingwood	5.12	11.76	-6.60
Melbourne Demons	1.75	1.64	0.10
St Kilda Saints	-0.38	-7.63	7.20
Carlton Blues	-2.41	-4.77	2.40
Port Adelaide Power	-10.85	-14.65	3.80
North Melbourne	-18.19	-21.71	3.50
Essendon Bombers	-28.81	-27.89	-0.90
West Coast Eagles	-33.44	-39.36	5.90
Richmond Tigers	-40.56	-29.44	-11.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats	Jun 04	75 – 74	-4.20	FALSE
2	Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs	Jun 05	71 – 77	9.20	FALSE
3	North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers	Jun 06	31 – 155	-41.80	TRUE
4	Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions	Jun 06	75 – 106	3.40	FALSE
5	West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power	Jun 06	71 – 77	-12.80	TRUE
6	Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints	Jun 07	104 – 102	37.50	TRUE
7	Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues	Jun 07	67 – 72	-30.30	TRUE
8	Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons	Jun 08	75 – 83	5.90	FALSE

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows	Jun 11	Western Bulldogs	9.30
2	Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns	Jun 12	Geelong Cats	31.30
3	Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers	Jun 13	Melbourne Demons	30.60
4	North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles	Jun 13	North Melbourne	4.30
5	Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans	Jun 13	Sydney Swans	-20.60
6	Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions	Jun 14	Brisbane Lions	-53.90
7	St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants	Jun 14	St Kilda Saints	4.00

The post AFL Predictions for Week 15 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Small, modular?

Thomas Lumley — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 03:37:52 +0000

I randomly came across a story about a “small modular reactor” startup that was having its first pre-operational test, not ready to generate electricity or anything, just heating up. This made me think about the recent suggestion that NZ should buy a couple of small modular reactors, as if they were standard off-the-shelf equipment like windmills or ferries. In fact, China has one SMR, Russia has one pair, and lots of people are doing R&D trying to develop them for sale in the future.

RNZ had a story this week, where most of the content was attributed to a spokesperson from “the international organization that promotes nuclear power and supports the companies that comprise the global nuclear industry” (per Wikipedia). I’m not going to check the whole thing, but I was struck by one statistic

Finland reportedly saw its electricity prices fall 75 percent when its latest nuclear power came online.

This obviously wasn’t a small modular reactor, but also there is no way that could possibly be an honest summary (I suppose the ‘reportedly’ might also have signalled that)

If you follow the link (as RNZ perhaps should have) the headline is Electricity prices in Finland flipped negative — a huge oversupply of clean, hydroelectric power meant suppliers were almost giving it away. As with similar stories, this is a transient phenomenon. There is no mention at that link of nuclear power.

We can also check with Stats Finland. Here’s the price of electricity from the start of 2023

That does show an apparently important drop in early 2023, which is when the most recent nuclear station went online, but a relatively short-term one. Looking back before 2023 we see

with a big run-up in prices suggesting there might have been other forces affecting Finnish power costs in 2022 that would complicate the pro-nuclear interpretation.

I don’t have a firm opposition to small modular nuclear reactors (I’m not a proper Kiwi), but if they were a good idea you’d think the links would be to documents that actually support the case.

The post Small, modular? first appeared on Stats Chat.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

David Scott — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:57:07 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bath	11.40	10.30	1.10
Leicester Tigers	10.19	5.55	4.60
Saracens	9.32	5.03	4.30
Northampton Saints	8.04	-1.47	9.50
Exeter Chiefs	5.14	-4.58	9.70
Bristol	1.26	3.66	-2.40
Sale Sharks	-3.49	6.70	-10.20
Gloucester	-3.60	4.13	-7.70
Harlequins	-4.74	-3.02	-1.70
Newcastle Red Bulls	-25.66	-18.45	-7.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Bristol vs. Bath	May 30	21 – 19	-4.40	FALSE
2	Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks	May 31	45 – 42	-18.30	FALSE
3	Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester	May 31	36 – 32	21.20	TRUE
4	Saracens vs. Harlequins	May 31	26 – 12	22.40	TRUE
5	Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs	Jun 01	26 – 35	15.60	FALSE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bath vs. Leicester Tigers	Jun 07	Bath	8.20
2	Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens	Jun 07	Exeter Chiefs	2.80
3	Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls	Jun 07	Gloucester	29.10
4	Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints	Jun 07	Northampton Saints	-5.80
5	Sale Sharks vs. Bristol	Jun 07	Sale Sharks	2.20

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

David Scott — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:55:04 +0000

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	12.98	11.56	1.40
Stade Rochelais	6.04	1.22	4.80
Montpellier	5.95	-0.21	6.20
Stade Francais	5.01	-2.17	7.20
Bordeaux Begles	4.45	4.78	-0.30
Section Paloise	4.29	2.21	2.10
Racing 92	3.78	1.88	1.90
Clermont	3.12	1.88	1.20
Toulon	-0.31	3.49	-3.80
Lyon	-0.54	-0.45	-0.10
Castres Olympique	-1.15	0.59	-1.70
Bayonne	-2.98	1.48	-4.50
USA Perpignan	-4.78	-3.37	-1.40
Montauban	-22.98	-10.00	-13.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais	May 31	15 – 71	-20.40	TRUE
2	Montpellier vs. Section Paloise	May 31	26 – 18	8.20	TRUE
3	Stade Francais vs. Bayonne	May 31	38 – 21	14.10	TRUE
4	Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon	May 31	39 – 31	21.00	TRUE
5	USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique	May 31	29 – 27	3.00	TRUE
6	Clermont vs. Racing 92	Jun 01	13 – 41	8.00	FALSE
7	Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles	Jun 01	27 – 22	1.30	TRUE

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan	Jun 07	Bayonne	8.30
2	Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont	Jun 07	Bordeaux Begles	7.80
3	Castres Olympique vs. Toulon	Jun 07	Castres Olympique	5.70
4	Lyon vs. Montpellier	Jun 07	Lyon	0.00
5	Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain	Jun 07	Stade Toulousain	-2.70
6	Section Paloise vs. Montauban	Jun 07	Section Paloise	33.80
7	Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais	Jun 07	Stade Rochelais	7.50

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 26 first appeared on Stats Chat.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

David Scott — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:53:55 +0000

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	11.94	13.41	-1.50
Bulls	10.79	8.86	1.90
Stormers	6.70	4.17	2.50
Glasgow	6.67	6.18	0.50
Connacht	2.73	-1.39	4.10
Sharks	2.15	1.29	0.90
Munster	1.65	3.65	-2.00
Lions	1.53	-1.19	2.70
Ulster	-0.38	-3.24	2.90
Cardiff Rugby	-2.27	-2.74	0.50
Edinburgh	-3.43	2.67	-6.10
Scarlets	-3.61	-0.54	-3.10
Ospreys	-3.70	-2.15	-1.60
Benetton	-6.97	-2.32	-4.70
Dragons	-9.62	-15.66	6.00
Zebre	-14.18	-11.02	-3.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Glasgow vs. Connacht	May 30	33 – 21	10.60	TRUE
2	Bulls vs. Munster	May 30	45 – 14	14.30	TRUE
3	Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby	May 31	44 – 21	14.90	TRUE
4	Leinster vs. Lions	May 31	59 – 10	14.30	TRUE

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Glasgow vs. Bulls	Jun 07	Glasgow	2.90
2	Leinster vs. Stormers	Jun 07	Leinster	12.20

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.